---
title: 'Will the S&P 500 and US Economy Collapse and How Will Bitcoin React? Fed Key Rate'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=tJ2aJcgrprQ'
video_id: 'tJ2aJcgrprQ'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 1044
---

# Will the S&P 500 and US Economy Collapse and How Will Bitcoin React? Fed Key Rate

> Source: [Will the S&P 500 and US Economy Collapse and How Will Bitcoin React? Fed Key Rate](https://youtube.com/watch?v=tJ2aJcgrprQ)

## Summary

The video analyzes whether the US economy and S&P 500 will collapse, and how Bitcoin might react. The creator reviews key metrics like speculative positions, the dollar index, and the Fed rate, concluding that while a collapse is inevitable long-term, it's not imminent. He advises patience and long-term investing over speculation.

### Key Points

- **US Economy Collapse Question** [00:15] — The host discusses whether the US economy will collapse this year, noting that all economies are pyramid schemes and will eventually collapse, but not in the near future.
- **Bitcoin's $600 Movement** [00:57] — A $600 move in Bitcoin is causing excitement, but the host dismisses it as insignificant, noting that people are too accustomed to strong falls and any growth is seen as a pump.
- **Speculative Positions on S&P 500** [01:27] — The host observes that speculative positions on the S&P 500 have passed their peak and are slightly increasing, but a strong fall is not expected until a certain zone is reached.
- **Dollar Index Approaching 105-106** [01:56] — The dollar index is approaching the 105-106 mark, which could be scary if it goes higher, potentially affecting stock and crypto markets.
- **Fed Rate and Bitcoin Growth** [03:39] — When the Fed held the rate steady in 2018, Bitcoin grew 250%. The host expects similar growth if the Fed stops raising rates.
- **May Business Activity Index** [05:06] — The business activity index shows a trough and reversal pattern, suggesting potential growth, but it's not guaranteed.
- **S&P 500 Growth with Rate Holds** [05:39] — When the Fed held rates, the S&P 500 grew 23%, and when they lowered, it grew 220% in the sixth year. History rhymes but doesn't repeat.
- **Potential 55% Fall** [06:26] — If indices fall 55%, it would be catastrophic, and no one would predict it. The host advises being prepared for anything.
- **Upcoming Fed Decision** [08:48] — The Fed decision is on 20.09, with 94% expecting a rate hold. A raise would be negative, a cut positive, and a hold neutral.
- **Bitcoin Range Trading** [09:41] — Bitcoin has been trading in a range for 3-4 months. The host advises against speculation and suggests waiting for a breakout.
- **Regulation and Big Players** [11:09] — Regulation is expected to bring big players, but they can also cause downward moves. Always prepare two plans: for growth and for downturns.
- **Warren Buffett Quote** [12:24] — Buffett said that if you're not interested in finance in the 21st century, you're probably dead as a person, as finance surrounds everything.
- **Hamster Trading Example** [13:55] — The host illustrates a typical 'hamster' trade: entering a short with a stop, getting stopped out, and losing money, highlighting the difficulty of doing nothing.
- **Hardest Thing: Doing Nothing** [16:10] — The hardest thing for a trader or investor is to do nothing. The simple rule is to buy and sit, but few can do it.

### Conclusion

The US economy and S&P 500 are not likely to collapse this year, but a long-term collapse is inevitable. Bitcoin may react positively if the Fed holds rates, but the key is to avoid speculation and focus on long-term investing.

## Transcript

So, friends, there will be a fall, but not immediately, everything rolls, but not Bitcoin and not in this phase. everything rolls, but not Bitcoin and not in this phase. Everyone profits with you, Kirillvets, let's get Everyone profits with you, Kirillvets, let's get comfortable, have some coffee, good
mood and let's fly. Let's get down to business. Today's topic is simple. While various analysts are predicting what will happen to the markets, we will talk about the US economy. A very important question. Will the US economy collapse this year, friends,
globally, sooner or later, any economy will collapse because it's all a pyramid scheme, but in the next year, you can relax your buns, while there is still a competitor
for the USA. No, there is Japan, China, and Asia, but friends, this is not this phase yet, relax your buns, because today we will simply discuss, look at the metrics, look at Bitcoin, there is a crazy pump. On Bitcoin, look, just a
$600 movement, everyone is already shouting that it has reversed, friends, but the $600 movement has already happened, everyone is so accustomed to a strong fall at the seams, any growth is all already Pan, they are already writing on Twitter, everyone is pumping, what a pump. Well, what dad, relax, damn.
Korotchenko's own wolf cubs have already gone to see, so far everything is stable in the US economy. Nothing is moving yet, the SNP is growing, the mammoth is reaching upwards, here are some bad reports, some good. Let's just look at
the situation from the outside, meter. So, one of the key metrics that I observe in the market is purely speculative positions on the S&P 500. So, we have already passed the peak. In the mines, they were slightly knocked down because the growth has
passed, but little by little, they are starting to increase. According to statistics, until we increase. According to statistics, until we reach the zone, we should not expect a particularly strong fall. But everything happens for the first time, so friends, prepare yourself, you need to be prepared for
everything. Next, the dollar index is approaching our 105-106 mark on the index. Of course, it will be scary if it goes higher, then our stock market has already reacted, and
while there is a correction and fall, if we break through the crypto market react to this, friends, and maybe everything will turn out differently. And yet, with the
maybe everything will turn out differently. And yet, with the collapse of companies and banks, Bitcoin will grow, and this is possible, of course, I would like to see.  We can see something like this, but we don't know, so we're sitting and waiting, we won't guess. Nobody knows how the crowd will react.
Maybe the big guys know, but I doubt it. That's because if everyone knew, the big funds wouldn't go bankrupt, and the banks wouldn't fall for it either. But everyone has greed, fear, and these fund managers are also friends and people,
and you and I are also people. That's why each of you can become that same billionaire or millionaire in a couple of years, you just need to have a huge desire and huge balls the size of a house. Because if you don't have them, it's unlikely you'll be able to
Because if you don't have them, it's unlikely you'll be able to handle it all. While I was going from 20,000 subscribers to 400, I experienced catharsis. I asked myself 10 times why I was doing all this I asked myself 10 times why I was doing all this because there are critics and various mommy
investors on YouTube. Don't worry, there are fewer adequate people, but I hope that now in this phase only real cryptocurrencies remain, because you can beat them with likes, let's move on. Friends, I put it on the Bitcoin chart, which means the Fed rate.
I put it on the Bitcoin chart, which means the Fed rate. Let's see, here it is, the rate in the eighteenth.  There was a simple year and during this simple rate where they held the rate and didn't raise it anymore, we had a great growth, friends, the growth was 250
great growth, friends, the growth was 250 percent, while we still have our rate, it seems to be holding, but so far they have n't strengthened it much with their help. When it will be clear that they are all holding and not raising it anymore, I think too. We will rush to grow a little, and that will
raising it anymore, I think too. We will rush to grow a little, and that will solve this. Well, I really want this all to continue and not raise the rate anymore, although my brain was still telling me that they can't do this, they need to lower it already. Yes, friends, there will be
inflation, no matter what, there will be a GB sooner or later, the GB sooner or later, the US economy will collapse, but you can't do anything about it. Well, it's such a system, debts, you
spin out such debt. Well, where can we go from this sinking ship? Everyone is just trying to from this sinking ship? Everyone is just trying to drag out the time of this collapse. Sooner or later it will come and there will be something new, maybe even digital, maybe
they will somehow write it off. I think they write, they always come up with something like that, because Let's move on. And then, with us, friends, this  We have a May business activity index. Friends, let's take a look at this: we had a trough, a profit in
the twenties, and then there was growth after a reversal here. There was a trough, a reversal here. There was a trough, a reversal here. Well, basically, everywhere where there was a trough, we then had growth, and now there is something similar to a reversal, but it's not a
something similar to a reversal, but it's not a fact, maybe, friends. Everything will not be as we think. But for now, according to this metric, everything is fine, and it seems that we are going to update the Altynkhay SMP, that's how I put the rate on the S&P. Let's
see, they started holding the rate already, and there was another growth. Let's already, and there was another growth. Let's see how much 23 percent up, it's interesting. Here, they started holding the rate and even lowering it a little, and we,
friends, grew. Let's look at 220 percent, this, of course, was the sixth year. The past does not predict the future. But we take it into account because history does not repeat itself, it just rhymes, friends, we are already much higher than we were in the sixth, seventh,
eighth year, this is ours, friends, there was a mortgage crisis, I don't know what should happen for this to happen. there's a fall here, friends, it was very scary, there's a fall here, friends, it was very scary, 55 percent. I think that if
our S&P index and other indices fall by 55 percent, then friends, no one will by 55 percent, then friends, no one will guess anything, there's no peak in crypto and it will be simple. Nobody knows this. So relax, if we
all end up in trouble, then everyone will end up in trouble. You won't be able to blame anyone anymore, because absolutely all the bloggers who were pushing because of the rise and fall all lost because some left, some re- entered, some shorted, some everyone,
because no one will win from this, it will be very painful and it will recover so quickly. It will be very hard for the economy, most likely, they will sharply reduce the rate and then print money and probably there will be. This is such a V-shaped
recovery, because in any case, no matter how hard it is for us, friends, this needs to be lived through. Well, only those people who can survive all this will be able to adopt this experience and then understand that anything can happen in the market to become a cool investor
or trader. I believe that you need to spend at least 5 or even 10 years in the market to basically say to yourself that I  I 've seen it all. Although the market will always surprise you because 10 years is very little even for an investor.
Here, friends, Buffett has seen everything, rise and fall. He's seen all this and even saw growth that lasted for about 12 years without any significant pullbacks. This is of course brutal. You and I have n't seen anything like this yet. Yes, we've seen it, but after
the fact, it's unlikely that any of you came here and now he's sitting here and saying, guys, what kind of fall is this? I'm sitting here, here's my entry point, fall is this? I'm sitting here, here's my entry point,
are nothing to me because I have a long position. And for him, it's really nothing on the time horizon, and for you too, friends. On the horizon of three, fifty, ten years, this will be nothing. Let's repeat the rules again. The more you
play this game, the more successful you are. The better your position is, and the more comfortable you are not to sit. I think I said everything correctly. If I'm wrong, correct me in the comments. That's how things are. Let's move on. The decision on the key rate is currently at
on. The decision on the key rate is currently at 20.09, which is coming soon. It's literally a week and five days left, and friends.  I don't care what can we say now and friends.  I don't care what can we say now that 94 percent expect the rate to be
basically fixed, and they won't raise it. What could happen, or they might lower it, that is, the rate will be from 525 to 5.5 something like that. If they raise it, that, my
friends, is more negative news. If it lowers it, it's more positive, even though the If it lowers it, it's more positive, even though the market expects it. If it leaves it, it's also basically within expectations. That's why we're sitting here with all these pumps and dumps on
Bitcoin, not reacting, distancing ourselves, turning on the move for a week. Lim yourself. Whoever a week. Lim yourself. Whoever wants to buy, nothing special is happening on the crypto market. We've set a key level for ourselves, here's our upper
level, we're still standing in this range. And we've been trading in it for three or four months. I was saying, a while ago, that it would be cool to go above 25k and haggle above it, my friends. Well, that's how it turned out. No one
knew, but it was possible to assume it, because the longer we stand here, the better for all of us. Some players will be thrown out, some will sell, others will buy it for themselves and
then put it where they need it, so I'm saying it again.  Don't speculate because it's very difficult to guess when the breakout will occur. Here you bought, very difficult to guess when the breakout will occur. Here you bought, here you sold, here you bought back, bought back, bought back on
here you sold, here you bought back, bought back, bought back on this pump, sold. Here it fell, we waited for it to fall, bought lower. Yes, we even bought here, here you sold, here another part, sold. You didn't buy on this hover because you were waiting for a breakout, this is the slope of the
because you were waiting for a breakout, this is the slope of the glasses. I didn't break through, you're already out of position, and you missed all this. I'm telling you again, it's not worth it. Yes, it's very nice for you now, I'm sure that some of you bought here, sold here, bought here,
some of you bought here, sold here, bought here, sold, and here now, you'll buy again. One mistake, and everything you earned here will turn into nothing, because the growth
can be anything, it can be 80k, or as much as 200, 300. Nobody knows as much as 200, 300. Nobody knows how strong the demand will be on the market. That's why how strong the demand will be on the market. That's why we expect regulation, and teff
futures, spot, and also on air, friends, there may be a show, so something like that, may be a show, so something like that, so the answer is: The collapse of the US will be a collapse of stocks. It happens often, various bubbles are inflated, including in the crypto market,
regulation is needed.  Regulation is important so that big guys come here too, but don't forget that everything you want can also affect the crypto market in the opposite direction because big guys play only for an increase and
then a decrease at home. You need to be prepared for everything, and that's why our channel is about what you need to always prepare two plans, not only the most favorable for growth and an attack, and even for a long
downtime so that all this does not upset you. But if you have 17 dollars and you came to become a if you have 17 dollars and you came to become a millionaire, then you are a hamster. Congratulations, you are millionaire, then you are a hamster. Congratulations, you are among the best hamsters of the best. That's how
things are. All friends, I'm off to rest. Tomorrow I'll probably record a video about inflation, too, something useful for now while the market is standing, especially on the wall here, I will educate a little with such useful content. I think many of you understand all this and
many of you understand all this and study. Although most people don't even want to immerse themselves in all this, it's quite interesting and, as quite interesting and, as Warren Buffett says, if in the 21st century you are not
interested in the world of finance, you are probably dead as a person because the world of finance  He surrounds you everywhere in the economy, supply and demand, relationships between people, goods, services. If you don't study this, but you were. And the
digital world is coming, and you're already in it. You just do n't feel it yet. Then I wish you all to realize all this, but also to come to crypto more often and come to our channel, like, put dots, write, develop, and support our content.
That's how it is. All friends, I'm going to rest. Good luck to everyone, bye, rest. Good luck to everyone, bye, see you tomorrow. Or not tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. Well, the short will
tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. Well, the short will come out today anyway. Bye, everyone, or just come out today anyway. Bye, everyone, or just sit here. I'm just
came. You say, here's the level, I set a short trade with a stop here, I set a short trade with a stop here, like this. I entered here, now I like this. I entered here, now I entered here and Stop. My take profit will be
entered here and Stop. My take profit will be somewhere here. Here now I'll take a short position, I'll set it like this. Beautiful. Yes, I'm a top set it like this. Beautiful. Yes, I'm a top trader, my friends, I opened a
megachart position on a minute chart, risk/profit one to three, we're waiting to see what will happen, risk/profit one to three, we're waiting to see what will happen, friends, it will probably happen, it will happen
friends, it will probably happen, it will happen now, damn, something's a deal.  That's it. Probably every hamster wants to do this. He came in, drew a line, placed a trade, and came in, drew a line, placed a trade, and it went into the plus, immediately, and took the
it went into the plus, immediately, and took the profit. It's so easy. In theory, it's so easy to do all this. Of course, you're not joking. It's boring on Twitter. There's no one on Twitter. The news is just airdrops. What to
do in this industry? People probably don't understand. We're still building a project with the guys. understand. We're still building a project with the guys. Sasha, will they demolish the level? No, it can't be. This is the strongest level, the strongest resistance level,
impenetrable, impenetrable, this is the perfect trade. It won't break through, I'm 100% sure of it. It won't break through. I'm talking about a mega- professional trader, I'll show you everything now.
Friends, it will never break through. We never pass this level. I see on the chart that a big whale is sitting here. He's selling at this level. I see what he's doing. It's
clear even to anyone what he's doing. Here's a whale for 6 dollars. He pushed through 6 dollars, stop. I can't stand it. That's it. I'm leaving. I'm closing the trade. Goodbye. I sat on the trades for
I'm leaving. I'm closing the trade. Goodbye. I sat on the trades for I can't wait for this. That's how the guys feel.  hamster because he seemed to have entered, it seemed to have gone in his direction and then returned and he
his direction and then returned and he always has doubts because the hardest thing for any trader investor is to do nothing That's how things are, friends. If you think this is somehow different from investing, it just
changes. The horizon is the main thing to sit and not make any decisions from falls and shoots, a position was taken, points were accumulated and left, coffee and
do something useful, everything is very simple, everything is so simple and brilliant, but at the same time it is brilliant and difficult because few people can do it. A because few people can do it. A simple rule is to buy and sit, no one
wants, friends, really, no one wants. Everyone wants to make money today, I explain to them that you will most likely lose everything this way and then buy at the top and sell at the bottom, no one listens, no one even hears, well, no one wants to listen, no one.
wants to listen, no one. Everyone wants to make money today and that's all they need today. The market will teach you very quickly if you don't listen to the market very quickly. One of the key metrics that I observe in the market is quantity.