--- title: 'Bitcoin: The Price of Impatience (Liquidation Soon)' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=bEuSyRqhyFw' video_id: 'bEuSyRqhyFw' date: 2026-08-05 duration_sec: 1224 --- # Bitcoin: The Price of Impatience (Liquidation Soon) > Source: [Bitcoin: The Price of Impatience (Liquidation Soon)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=bEuSyRqhyFw) ## Summary The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, focusing on the current bear market conditions. The analyst identifies key support regions, discusses risk management strategies, and warns about the dangers of impatience and improper leverage. He also touches on Ethereum, tokenized stocks, and the broader altcoin market. ### Key Points - **Corrective Movement Not Over** [00:03] — The current corrective movement in Bitcoin is not yet complete, as indicated by a bearish weekly candle following a month of upward movements with declining volume. - **Key POI at $60k-$61k** [00:59] — The primary area of interest (POI) for buying is between $60,000 and $61,000, based on the 4-hour chart. This region shows greater buying interest and is not just a psychological level. - **Pullback Pattern Suggests Rebound** [01:30] — The pullback is not a straight line but a series of lower lows and higher lows, indicating a weakening trend. This pattern suggests a potential rebound in the $60k region. - **Risk Management for Longs** [02:11] — For any buy entry before the $60k-$61k region, stop loss should be placed below this region to avoid liquidation. Opening a long now would require a ~5% stop, making the risk-reward less favorable. - **Better Risk-Reward by Waiting** [03:08] — Waiting for the price to reach the POI improves the risk-reward ratio, as the target becomes closer. Beginners often miss this concept. - **Distribution Structure and Weakness** [04:04] — Bitcoin is in a distribution structure with breakouts lacking continuity and weak volume. After a pullback, a breakdown in structure leads to a downward search for liquidity. - **Wait for Trigger at POI** [04:32] — Simply placing an order at the POI is not enough; one must wait for a buying trigger such as a 1-2-3 pattern, absorption, or engulfing candle before entering. - **Potential Drop Below $57k** [05:13] — If the $60k region shows no absorption or buying pressure, the next support is below $57,000. The bottom of the bear market is forming, but a break below $57k is possible. - **Stay Exposed in Bear Market** [05:55] — It's important to have some exposure to Bitcoin even in a bear market, as those who stay out entirely may end up buying at higher prices later. Risk management is key. - **DCA and Leverage Strategy** [06:23] — The analyst uses DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) and increases leverage only when the price rises above his average entry, as he then has a stop-gain order protecting his position. - **Caution in Downtrends** [07:42] — Trading in downtrends is complicated and not favored. After passing $57k, the last major downward leg may occur, but one should not wait for it. - **BTC Still Alive** [08:22] — The Central Bank is not dead, and BTC is still alive. The market is not experiencing a new cycle; it's the same as previous cycles, so act accordingly. - **Short-Term Volatility and Liquidity** [09:05] — Expect a volatile night with open interest increasing. There is significant liquidity at $64k and $62k, and the 4-hour chart shows a typical pattern of liquidity above and below. - **Ethereum Analysis** [10:14] — Ethereum is in a distribution region. A good entry point is below $1,700 with a stop below $1,600, but the risk-reward is not attractive. Shorting is more interesting near $1,950. - **Tokenized Stocks as Trader's Salvation** [12:27] — Tokenized American stocks like SMDK show higher volatility than altcoins, offering trading opportunities. However, leverage must be used carefully due to large price swings. - **SMDK Analysis** [13:42] — SMDK is forming an ascending bottom after a 44% upward leg. Fibonacci retracement shows an interesting region at 0.5-0.618. Weekend trading is noisy due to limited market participants. - **SpaceX Stock Risks** [14:43] — SpaceX (tokenized) is in a risky region for shorting due to potential manipulation by Elon Musk or insiders, who can inflate the price with relatively small capital. Shorting now is dangerous. - **Oil Trading** [16:45] — Oil is volatile and news-driven, making it less predictable. A short scalp is possible with a 1:1 risk-reward, but capital should be limited due to news risk, especially with Iran tensions. - **Altcoins Pump and Dump** [18:06] — Most altcoins are being used for pump and dump schemes, driven by frequency trading. They are unlikely to recover, especially with capital migrating to tokenized stocks. - **Solana and Altcoin Outlook** [19:15] — Solana is in an interesting region but buying now is complicated. For the next bull cycle, only one or two altcoins may rise, but it's impossible to know which now. ### Conclusion The analyst advises patience and risk management in the current bear market, focusing on Bitcoin's key support at $60k-$61k and waiting for triggers before entering trades. He warns against impatience and emphasizes the importance of staying exposed with proper risk control. ## Transcript corrective movement that we are seeing at the moment, is not over yet. In the weekly chart, we have a movement here, right? A candle that is closing this week as a bearish candle, a corrective candle after a month-long sequence of upward movements. These movements weren't significant upward movements; we didn't see much buying interest in this particular movement. However, it did serve as a pullback. Also notice that we had a downward volume movement in this little pullback, right? The volume, in fact, has been declining for quite some time now, right? The buying volume here in Bitcoin is progressively decreasing, right? which is also common within a business marketing market. I'm still focusing on the same area of ​​interest as in the last analyses, right? If we look at the 4-hour chart here, we have a POI, we have a movement of greater buying interest in this region between 60 and 61,000. If you don't know what a POI is, what the technical basis is for this region, and that it's not just a psychological number, go back to the last analysis where I explain it in more detail. However, the price movement does seem to be heading towards this region. One thing that leads me to believe that we might actually see at least one more interesting rebound here in the 60,000 region, folks, is the pullback movement we're experiencing. We are not falling in a straight line. We are falling, the price comes back, falls a little more, the price comes back, falls a little more. And this is becoming a weaker trend , a little calmer than that slightly faster movement to seek liquidity, to tear up the seek liquidity, to tear up the chart. That being said, this is the region where I'm keeping an eye on buying opportunities, okay? Between 60,000 and 61,000. We may have other purchasing regions in the short term, folks, we can, okay? But the 4-hour chart already establishes that baseline, okay? Any purchase, any buy entry you make before this point, your stop loss needs to be below this region to avoid the risk of being liquidated, right? You get caught off guard, you leave the market, and then the market actually starts a buying spree. Therefore, it's not as advantageous to open a long position now, given that you 're further away, right? being further Let's say you open a buy position now, your stop loss needs to be below this region, right? Approximately 5% stop size. And just to offset your risk, one for one, we're already talking about returning to the 66,000 region. Is it possible to make a trade like that? It's possible to make a trade like that, but it's not the most viable option right now, is it? The lower you go here, the better your risk-reward ratio becomes, and the lower your target becomes, right? Many beginners don't understand this. Ah, Gost, but he's going to region 66, OK, but he needs to go there just so you can recoup your risk-reward now, whereas if you wait a little longer, you'll recoup your risk-reward much sooner, right? And you can conduct the operation up to that point, okay? Remember that my way of operating in the market, folks, no matter the size of the stop loss, my risk is fixed, right? So, if I set a target to lose money on this trade, it doesn't matter if that money is diluted by 5% here or by , for example, 1%. What's going to change, everyone? That's my target, okay? return trade here, I no longer risk losing the capital from my stop-loss order, and I can move the trade upwards, increasing my profit. This is one way to implement more effective risk management in your trading operations. So, for now, regarding Bitcoin, respecting the chart movements, telling me, you can see that we are in a distribution structure, right? That's not the technical structure of Wof, right? We have some differences, folks, but we're noticing breakouts without continuity, weakness in volume, right? After that, we have a pullback, a breakdown in structure, a downward search for liquidity, and the region of a POI, right? The region of greatest interest here is in the 601,000 area. Upon arriving in this region, it's important to note that we need to see a buying impulse, okay? It's not simply a matter of getting here. Augusto said that this is the best buying region, that this is where he will want to open new positions, and that you will simply leave your order plotted there and forget about it. No, you'll wait until you reach that region, you'll observe a trigger. What trigger is that? It could be a 1, 2, or 3 purchase, it could be an absorption, it could be a swallowing spell, okay? You 'll wait for the market to dictate a trigger, and then you'll make your entry, because if it goes down here, there's no problem at all. You didn't enter that trade because it didn't trigger you. Or least you'll have a slightly shorter stop loss , right? And you are protected from any potential loss in the 57,000 range. Reaching the 60 region, folks, and showing no absorption, no buying pressure, the region of interest after that is below 57,000. And as I've been saying for a while now , we're forming the bottom of the bemarket, we're already in the bottom region of the bemarket, but that doesn't prevent us from breaking through the 57 region, maybe even going a little lower. Just be careful with that bias where, oh my $0.000," or "I'll only buy it if it reaches $50,000," because you might miss out on the deal. The background region of marketing is already an exposure region. You need to already have an exhibition. Does it mean you need to win, does it mean you need to be very aggressive here? No, but you need to be exposed. What I see most right now are people who are simply out of the market, they've simply given up on Bitcoin, right? For n reasons. We're on bemarket, OK? But these are the people who will end up buying up there , okay? So it's better to have some exposure now and act with risk management than to simply stay out of the market. Ghost, the opportunity will arise, the chance for us to make a win, okay? First of all, I don't ghost work that way, okay? I only give the win to the top. What do you mean by "up," "I like it"? I only give the win by getting an average score, right? DCA is up, okay? So, the higher it goes , the greater my work in the futures market, I work with leverage. So, since I always have the risk on the downside here, right, mainly because I'm leveraged, right, at this moment, for example, I 'm not effectively leveraged, okay? My leverage is below one. So, even if Bitcoin goes to zero, everything's fine, everything's calm, I won't be liquidated from my positions. However, when the price rises, it forms ascending bottoms. Here, I increase my aggressiveness. Why? Because I already have a stop-gain order, okay? I'm above my average price, for example, right? And here I can increase my leverage, my risk, okay? Because I no longer have the systemic risk of going bankrupt. Even if I have a clearance price that's lower, it's no problem at all. I'll be protected with the stop game, right? And from then on I can be aggressive right away in the takedown movement. You have to be takedown movement. You have to be extra careful with that, right? So, going downhill, folks, is quite complicated. I'm not the biggest fan of this a price range, here I'm going to market goes well. I don't like this kind of movement. But after passing region 57, we're probably already on the last major downward leg, right? Especially if she comes across as more aggressive. So, if it you can be a little more aggressive, especially if you operate in the sports betting market and all that, right? But don't wait for that move. It's possible that we'll establish a base here at 60, trade sideways for a while longer, and then later on we'll see an upward movement starting from this low at 57. That's why I've been telling you all so much, get exposure to BTC. The Central Bank is not dead yet. BTC is still alive. Nothing changed from the previous cycles. We are not experiencing a new cycle, something totally disruptive within BTC. Everything remains the same. And if things remain the same, we act the same way until proven otherwise, right? Until it is proven that the movement is in fact different. So with Bitcoin, just stay calm and relaxed, okay? In the very short term, we'll probably have a very volatile night here . We're seeing an increase in OP interest, right, with the price falling , relatively more sideways, but a lot of liquidity here in the 64,000 region, okay? There's a lot of resistance here on the book as well, just like we also have a lot of liquidity on the 62, right? This pattern we're seeing here on the 4-hour chart is very typical, is up here, a lot of liquidity down here, more pronounced trend movements, right? It looks like a book, doesn't it? It comes, it falls, it forms a slight upward trough, then it loses momentum, right? A descending peak then forms a lower peak than the previous one, characterizing a bearish pivot, thus indicating a bearish trend structure, a downward leg. And for those who operate in extremely short timeframes, folks, it becomes a bit more complicated to operate on that barbed wire, okay? We don't have a very clear trend at the before, my focus for buying here is in the 60,000 range, okay? I don't like waiting around here for 60, okay? It's not worth it . We can already see some weaknesses, and so on. So, for me right now, Bitcoin is either buying here in the 61 region or simply waiting. Other cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum, folks, Ethereum also comes in its price distribution region, right? It's more about distributing the price than anything else. This fund here in the 1820s isn't such an interesting fund, is it? This last candle, given that we have an absorption at 100, is a psychological number. So, buy entries need to have a stop below 1800, okay? But I'd like to catch an entry point that shows a breakout of those 1800 points, a recovery, and then I'd have a slightly shorter stop loss. But technically speaking, a good entry point here, folks, would be below 700, right? There's a vacuum here in this region. Will it arrive here? I don't know. And that's why Etheréum doesn't particularly interest me right now. I have a lot of liquidity here, which are actually regions where we can get then the price simply continues its movement. So it's technically difficult to anchor your operational stop here in these regions, okay? Ideally, you'd trade below this level, with your stop loss below... 600, but it's the same Bitcoin. We're left with a very displaced risk of return, right? In this case, it would pass the 2000 mark. So this trade doesn't make much sense, right? The logic of this trade, its risk-reward ratio, doesn't make much sense. That's why closer I get here, the better my risk-return ratio becomes. Buying now is a little more complicated, okay? Unlike BTC, folks, Ethereum already shows some much more interesting regions for short selling , okay? So, let's say we have, you know, a search for liquidity upwards, perhaps looking towards the 1950s region, something along those lines, we're already close to that level of liquidity. And here, yes, I'm more interested in shorting this ethereal structure than buying it, right? Obviously , it's the same situation, right, folks, with a short trigger, a trigger that will cause us to have a more intense downward movement, right, and not simply place an order here and wait, right? No, that's not how I operate, but this region here is much more of a seller's region than a buyer's region within Ethereum, right? Moving on to stocks, folks, tokenized American stocks, which right now are a trader's salvation. Why am I saying this, guys? Because they are exhibiting stocks here with higher volatility than altcoins, right? That's the case with volatile. We've already managed to do some analysis, some good trades here within SMDK, and it's showing much higher volatility than most altcoins, right? If we were to measure the length of the leg stride here, folks, we're talking about 44% in a 4-hour leg stride. Obviously, to trade this type of asset, folks, you can't overdo the leverage. You have to keep in mind, I'm going to accept losing X percentage of my capital, so it's a fixed monetary value, right? It depends on each person's situation. And you establish that risk and you adjust your leverage to the size of your position so that you actually only have that risk, okay? Leveraging incorrectly on an asset that goes up and down 40%, folks, that 's a lot. So you have to be extra careful, okay? But they are experiencing CDK, for example, is trying to form an ascending bottom after this 44% upward leg. If we pull Fibonacci, folks, we have an interesting region here, it's reached the 05 region, right? It flirted with region 06, so it's worth the problem with the actions is, folks. Looking at them on Sunday, we have the opening of the sports market only tomorrow morning. The US futures market only opens tonight, right? And this generates these more sideways movements in the American market, in American stocks during the weekend, because here only the token operators, right, the are actually driving the market. So, if we analyze about 5 minutes, folks, all this movement here is just noise from whoever is operating right now, buyers, large institutions going long or short here in weekend it's a little more complicated to analyze, but that's the thing, we analyze the region we're in. SNDK, for example, is in a very interesting region, right? SpaceX itself, right? It wins even after an endless ordeal, right? It's priced wrong, but it always gives you opportunities for a rebound, but you have to be a real screen-obsessed fan, right? You really have to keep analyzing their rebound, folks, is on much shorter timeframes, okay? In an hour, maybe 30 minutes at most, we can catch some buying opportunities, right? Be careful with short selling here in SpaceX, because this type of pattern, where it's been falling for quite some time without a significant pullback or a big upward movement, folks, it induces a sharp upward movement to grab all the liquidity, okay? So, those who are shorting the positions are adding their stops, right? Or they're moving their stops to the last highs, and this generates a lot of liquidity, a lot of upward interest. Another fact, okay, which is a bit more worrying about SpaceX for short sellers, folks, is that we could see purchase manipulation by SpaceX itself, okay? Since SpaceX's initial public offering was very small, SpaceX itself, Hollow Musk, or people connected to it, with a relatively small amount of money, are able to inflate SpaceX's capital very quickly, right? That's why Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire, and overnight he's no longer a trillionaire, he's already in the billions and everything else, okay ? So inflation here at SpaceX is very easy to circumvent, okay? I can go there, right? I own SpaceX, I am Elon Musk. I'm putting my SpaceX shares up as collateral, and I have a lot of them. I take some capital, I take a few billion, I put it on the market here inside SpaceX and it simply explodes upwards, okay? That's why I, as a ghost, wouldn't shortchange SpaceX under any circumstances after short the beat up there when there's a bump, it's another thing to short the beat now when we're already dragging ourselves along, okay? That's typical of this type of movement, okay? This upward manipulation, it tears things apart , then structures up here for a while right? It starts up here, builds up a bit, and then gradually consolidates downwards again. So be careful, okay? Be careful with SpaceX in the sold operations. Oil, right? Come on, go to your Calvary and climb, descend, descend and climb again, okay? I've already mentioned numerous sales, but I'm not the best oil precisely because it doesn't follow a technical aspect as much, right? He is much more volatile regarding news; commodities in general behave that way. So I prefer to stay out, unless there's For example, right now at 4 o'clock, we're seeing a little marking of 1, 2, 3, right? Which opens up space for a short little trade, okay? Just a short scalp here, maybe 3%, right? But it's short-term with a one- to-one risk-reward ratio. Why is this trade interesting? Because you see, he's only coming to close the gap on his target. It's just a matter of closing an efficiency point; I don't need to overcome any resistance. The price doesn't need to go too high for it to actually be profitable, for me to actually have less risk, previous inefficiency; he doesn't need to break through any resistance, he doesn't need to type of trade becomes much more interesting. Since it's oil, if we were to get involved, we'd need to have less capital, right? Precisely because he has this issue with the news, right? It's a commodity that fluctuates a lot depending on the news, especially with this whole Iran situation. So you have to be extra careful, okay? And the other altcoins, folks, are only being used for pump and dump. Even our dear friend, right? She's already doing those pump and amp movements, going up really strong, then bringing it all back down, okay? Typical pump and endum pattern. This is largely derived from frequency trading that has been operating with this type of asset. So, at this moment, for example, if it closes like this after 4 hours, in 2 hours we could have a short position, right? Looking at the quantitative aspect, you need to analyze if there's a drop in open prices, right? Pedup, you operate much more based on quantity than on price itself, right? But it's a trigger, right? So let's keep an eye on it because it's pump dump activity. And as for the rest, folks, it's sad what's happening with altcoins, but in fact, they're unlikely to recover, especially with this influx of capital migrating to tokenized companies. I don't see a salvation for altcoins in the current format . It would require a disruption, right? Something that would really take off, and it wo n't be all of them, right, folks? That's what a done deal is. There's no way we can raise the currency to this level, folks. There's no way around it, right? That's a lot of capital dilution, a lot of money dilution. So we need to focus, but it's hard to even focus on the biggest ones, right? For example, Solana, guys, right? She comes here in her increasing decline. This has been drifting for quite some time now. If we analyze it here, we're already in an interesting region, but it's difficult; we were already in an interesting region before. So, simply buying here because it looks nice, folks, is complicated, isn't it? Obviously, when talking about trading, you can expect, for example, Solana to make a slightly bigger pullback here, right? You can get a slightly closer stop-loss level, and then we can go back to talking about short-term risk-reward , okay? But for the medium and long term, to profit from the next bull market, that's not an option right now, okay? There that's not an option right now, okay? There is no viable performance there for the next bull cycle. For me, the next bull cycle is one or two altcoins that will go up, folks, there always are, but we can't trade on that, count on it, much less know about it at this moment. So, we need to be extra careful with altcoins, right? And if you enjoyed this Thank you so much for watching. Thanks and goodbye.