[0:01] All right. Hey everyone, welcome on
[0:04] back. We got to talk Micron because
[0:06] Micron earnings are coming up on
[0:08] Wednesday and frankly they could make or
[0:10] break the market. So, not everybody here
[0:12] might be invested in Micron or maybe you
[0:14] are and you've absolutely been killing
[0:16] it on the investment. Uh, in this video
[0:18] we're going to be pretty neutral on the
[0:20] actual stock itself. I'm just going to
[0:22] give you some facts here and we're going
[0:23] to use those facts to understand what's
[0:25] going on in the broader industry and how
[0:27] this could affect the broader well
[0:29] frankly hardware narrative given that
[0:31] hardware is clearly what's been running
[0:33] since uh we had our original beginning
[0:35] of April ceasefire if you want to call
[0:37] it that. Uh and then of course uh since
[0:39] then we've been looking for a broadening
[0:41] out. Uh we had these pits and starts of
[0:44] software a couple times. Those haven't
[0:45] really gone anywhere. Uh we had finance
[0:48] last week that did really well,
[0:50] specifically Robin Hood. But
[0:52] consistently, it's hardware stocks that
[0:53] keep winning, including Micron uh and uh
[0:57] SanDisk, of course. But even outside of
[1:00] these memory plays, you've got companies
[1:02] like Marll, which was one of our course
[1:04] member favorites. Remember, you can
[1:06] always join over at mekevin.com. Use
[1:08] that coupon code pope. You can see why
[1:10] on uh on Instagram or on uh on Twitter.
[1:14] But anyway, uh Marll's done
[1:15] fantastically. I mean, we're at alltime
[1:17] highs now at 310 and we were even higher
[1:20] than that intraday uh last day the
[1:22] market was open. But for now, let's
[1:23] focus on Micron and talk about some of
[1:25] these earnings expectations. What's
[1:27] going on there? So, uh first of all,
[1:29] we're expecting to beat the guidance
[1:32] that Micron gave by about 18%. The
[1:35] consensus estimate is only a beat of
[1:37] about 13%.
[1:39] But they'll probably beat, which is
[1:42] good. You want that. You actually don't
[1:44] want them to miss on any component at
[1:46] all because then you might end up
[1:47] pulling off a Broadcom. Broadcom had
[1:50] pretty much across the board beats, but
[1:53] the timing of some of their custom chip
[1:55] revenue and Broadcom does a lot of AS6
[1:57] as well like Marll. The timing of some
[1:59] of their custom chip chip revenue kind
[2:02] of got delayed. And so one of their
[2:03] their their next forecast quarter
[2:05] revenue was a slight miss compared to
[2:08] expectations. And the stock still hasn't
[2:10] recovered. it was down like 20% after
[2:12] earnings. Uh, and you know, now it's
[2:14] still down about 14% from their
[2:16] earnings. So, even though their earnings
[2:18] were pretty dang freaking good and the
[2:20] company's booming, it you know,
[2:21] honestly, for long-term buyers, it
[2:23] created a dip opportunity for Broadcom,
[2:26] even a slight miss can really tank some
[2:29] of these really uh big momentum movers,
[2:32] if you will. It doesn't take a lot to
[2:34] move these, so to speak. Uh so we're
[2:36] expecting a beat on top of expectations
[2:40] that are already expecting a beat. Uh
[2:42] and the biggest driver that you have at
[2:44] uh Micron right now is really price
[2:47] realization. And I think that's really
[2:49] important to understand when you're
[2:50] looking at an investment into Micron. So
[2:53] I'm going to read you some uh notes here
[2:55] directly from their last quarterly
[2:57] report. they have an increase of uh
[3:01] year-over-year increase of DRAM supply
[3:04] of 40% and nan supply of 30%. Or
[3:07] shipments, I should say, rather than
[3:08] supply. That's a pretty good
[3:10] year-over-year increase in shipments,
[3:12] right? But price is actually going up at
[3:16] a percentage of about 115% on DRAM and
[3:19] about 100% on NAND. So in other words,
[3:22] you are growing price way faster than
[3:25] you are actually growing shipments,
[3:28] which is very common during a shortage
[3:31] environment. Now, something to think
[3:32] about if you hear NAND and DRAM, I'm not
[3:35] going to go super into the weeds here.
[3:37] I'm going to give you a very, very basic
[3:39] uh difference of the two. The way I like
[3:41] to think of the two is I like to think
[3:43] of NAND maintains memory when the chips
[3:47] are turned off. So, the power is turned
[3:50] off. When is that useful? A lot of
[3:52] agentic AI applications. I don't want to
[3:55] have to reload all of my agentic AI
[3:58] context every time the darn thing
[4:00] respawns. I shouldn't say respawns,
[4:02] restarts. I'm in like a video game
[4:04] mindset even though I'm here in like a
[4:05] real life MMO. A lot of NPCs out here. I
[4:09] shouldn't say that. Uh but anyway, DRAM
[4:12] uh is really really powerful all the
[4:15] time when it's on, but it basically
[4:18] wipes your memory when it's off. That's
[4:20] a very very simplified explanation of
[4:23] the difference. Uh and of course they've
[4:25] got four core business units. You've got
[4:27] the core memory business unit. That's
[4:29] for like hypers scale cloud. Obviously
[4:31] that's where we're getting big spend
[4:33] right now at data centers for Micro. Uh
[4:35] then of course you've got sort of the
[4:36] original data center business. Think
[4:38] storage. Think uh the original
[4:40] components inside of Dell racks and
[4:44] storing information. Google Drive,
[4:46] Amazon Cloud, right? like that sort of
[4:48] core original uh data center stuff. And
[4:51] then you've got mobile, automotive and
[4:54] industrial and consumer sectors. So
[4:56] think mobile phones, think you know
[4:58] memory chips that are going into your
[4:59] dishwasher or your uh you know your
[5:01] refrigerator or your washing machine or
[5:03] into your cars, you know, your seat
[5:05] settings like basic things like that.
[5:08] Really basic chips. Those sectors, by
[5:11] the way, the last two, automotive,
[5:12] industrial, consumer, and these are
[5:14] bundled into two. I'm listing them out
[5:16] into a little bit more. and mobile those
[5:18] are actually declining which is very
[5:21] interesting. So uh even though prices
[5:24] are going up in all of the sectors
[5:28] shipments are down in mobile and
[5:31] enterprise those other categories. So
[5:33] it's really just the AI narrative that's
[5:36] driving chip prices right now. Uh and so
[5:39] anything that would soften uh the hope
[5:43] that this exponential growth of the
[5:45] chart of Micron is going to keep going
[5:47] is going to be a really big risk factor
[5:49] for the stock especially with how high
[5:51] it's run in the near term. Now the thing
[5:54] is even though at $1,100
[5:57] it seems like it's run up an insane
[5:59] amount because of the Wall Street
[6:02] forecast for this company it's actually
[6:04] cheap. like UBS prices it in as having a
[6:07] potential double.
[6:09] I don't actually think they're wrong,
[6:11] which is crazy to say, but right now the
[6:14] KPEG I have for them is 1.03, which
[6:18] means they could easily justify a
[6:20] valuation that is uh probably closer to
[6:22] 2 and a half times this, somewhere
[6:24] closer to $2,500 a share. But there's
[6:27] going to be a lot of volatility between
[6:29] here and there, both to the upside and
[6:32] to the downside is my expectation. Now,
[6:35] uh that's pretty incredible and I'll
[6:36] give you the components as to what makes
[6:38] up that so you could understand uh why
[6:41] that uh you know we we would come to
[6:44] such a valuation. Uh it has to do with
[6:46] an expected earnings per share at the
[6:48] end of this year of $59 per share which
[6:51] originally when we look at that and we
[6:53] divide their current price by 59 we're
[6:55] like okay wait a minute oh that's
[6:57] actually not that high. That's only 19.2
[6:59] times earnings. Yeah. Like these people
[7:01] are printing money even though that
[7:04] stick is you know the chart is hockey
[7:05] stick so much because they're printing
[7:07] money they are printing so much that
[7:09] they're only selling for 19.2 times
[7:11] earnings. On top of that their growth is
[7:13] expected to be about 18% per year over
[7:17] the next four years. So that gets you
[7:20] pretty close to about a one price to
[7:21] earnings growth ratio. Now, if you look
[7:23] at like trailing, the numbers are going
[7:25] to be different. But when you look at
[7:26] these forward projections, yeah, the
[7:28] projections actually suggest the stock
[7:30] is cheap. And this is why the most
[7:32] sensitive thing you could look at would
[7:33] be anything that would hurt those
[7:35] projections. Now, I just want to shout
[7:36] something out really quickly that's a
[7:37] totally free feature. Uh it's called our
[7:40] alpha wire service. If you haven't
[7:41] actually checked it out yet, uh we just
[7:43] released it last week and it's pretty
[7:45] amazing. Basically, what it is, it's uh
[7:48] think about it like a um an anchor over
[7:50] at CNBC or Bloomberg. You know how
[7:52] they're like, "Oh, this is just coming
[7:54] across the wire or this is just coming
[7:55] across the tape." You could get that for
[7:57] free now inside of the Meet Kevin app.
[7:59] Uh, so if you download the Meet Kevin
[8:01] app in the Apple or Android app store,
[8:03] you can utilize this. If you sign up
[8:05] there, you could also then eventually
[8:07] use the desktop version if you want. Uh,
[8:09] you know, you just have to sign up in
[8:10] the app first. It's just app.mec.com is
[8:13] the desktop version, but you need to
[8:14] make that account first uh inside the
[8:16] app. And you could use the wire service
[8:18] on desktop, on Android, on Apple, and
[8:20] it's totally free for now. Uh but it's
[8:22] kind of cool because uh you know you get
[8:23] these little breaking updates like Trump
[8:25] heads to Camp David as Iran talks falter
[8:27] or whatever, right? And those will come
[8:28] through. This is brand new. It's super
[8:30] in beta. We just released this in the
[8:32] Kevin app. But I think it's really cool
[8:33] because, you know, I also can pin uh
[8:36] wire alerts that come through and then
[8:38] I'll put like sort of the Meet Kevin
[8:40] commentary under it and that's really
[8:42] clearly outlined. So check that out.
[8:43] It's right under the alpha wire tab. And
[8:45] you'll see inside the Meet Kevin app, we
[8:47] actually have a little terminal button
[8:49] where you could switch between housing
[8:51] and stock. It's because we've got like
[8:52] the stock AI tools now that we've custom
[8:55] built. We've got the real estate AI
[8:56] tool, uh the valuation AI service coming
[8:59] out at the end of the month, which is
[9:00] really exciting. We're really just like
[9:02] cranking software right now. We we are
[9:04] jumping up and down and we're providing
[9:07] this for free for now. So, we're very
[9:08] excited about you could use it at least
[9:10] for the next few uh many months. uh uh
[9:13] totally for free. So I I think get your
[9:15] use out of it. Uh why not give it a
[9:17] shot? Give us some feedback. Let us know
[9:18] what you think. But anyway, let's focus
[9:20] some more on Micron. So those are the
[9:23] EPS projections and the growth
[9:25] projections. Any kind of red flag here
[9:28] that could tank the stock would be any
[9:29] kind of slowing in average selling
[9:31] prices. Any kind of slowing in order
[9:32] growth, obviously missed targets, but
[9:34] again to me, this is a co era toilet
[9:36] paper seller. They're selling toilet
[9:38] paper when everybody wants toilet paper.
[9:40] There's not enough toilet paper. This is
[9:42] not trying to be an insult uh to the
[9:44] company. The company knows this
[9:45] themselves. They literally warn in their
[9:48] filings that most of their cash flow
[9:49] right now is coming from price
[9:51] realization, not because they're
[9:53] delivering more product. They realize
[9:55] that. Like if you literally look at
[9:57] their quarter overquarter numbers,
[9:58] you'll see how extreme it is. So I'll go
[10:00] over here to quarter over quarter. I
[10:03] wish I could share the screen screen in
[10:04] my studio and just show it to you. So uh
[10:06] you if you're a course member, you could
[10:08] see it. It's under the stock tab. All of
[10:10] these are all this data is under the uh
[10:12] stock tab. But what I want you to think
[10:14] about is this very next quarter. Oh, I
[10:17] don't even know if I screenshotted it.
[10:18] Let me screenshot it to make sure it
[10:20] goes in there. But anyway, it's from the
[10:21] quarterly report. Ah, yeah, here it is.
[10:23] Okay, great. Oh, okay. Perfect. Yep,
[10:24] right here. So, uh, we've got sales of
[10:27] DRAM products increased 74%.
[10:31] But price increased about 65%.
[10:34] That means that's quarter over quarter.
[10:35] So, in a three-month span, they
[10:37] literally hiked prices about 65% in a
[10:40] span of three months. This is an insane
[10:42] shortage. Part of that is what we saw
[10:45] after Claude um uh co- co-work really
[10:49] went crazy. I shouldn't say Claude Co.
[10:50] Um uh whatever. You know what I mean?
[10:52] Claude Code, there we go. After Claude
[10:54] Code really went crazy in Q1, uh prices
[10:58] for everything. HBM's uh you know high
[11:01] bandwidth memory but also H100s from
[11:03] Nvidia had this massive surge in Q1 but
[11:07] those prices have already started to
[11:09] settle and that's one of the big
[11:10] concerns we're worried about here for
[11:12] Micron is we're already tracking H100
[11:14] prices and they're still elevated but
[11:17] they've come way off the peak that we
[11:19] saw in the first quarter. Uh, and so
[11:21] some of this price growth that they're
[11:23] talking about here might not last, but I
[11:25] mean, listen to this. They raised prices
[11:27] on DRAM. Remember the one that works
[11:29] really well all the time when it's
[11:31] powered on, but it loses its memory when
[11:33] it's turned off. Prices rose 65%.
[11:36] And their actual shipments only grew
[11:39] about 7 to Nish%.
[11:41] So that's still good. You know,
[11:44] shipments are still growing somewhere
[11:45] around, you know, 32 to 36%. But most of
[11:49] their money is being driven by price
[11:51] because they can. It's sort of like,
[11:53] wow, okay, let's try raising the price.
[11:54] Wow, people are still paying it. Let's
[11:56] try raising the price. Wow, people are
[11:57] still paying it. Right? That's what
[11:59] they're doing. And they're milking that
[12:00] right now. Now, that does not last
[12:03] forever. We know that. In fact, if you
[12:05] know PP is too strong for too long, you
[12:08] know, some say 4 hours, you need to go
[12:09] visit the doctor. Okay. Anyway, uh the
[12:11] same is happening actually on NAND
[12:13] products. Nan products up 82% but 75% of
[12:17] that was because of price. So yeah,
[12:19] quantity is going up but most of the
[12:21] growth is frankly price. Okay. Yeah. So
[12:24] I did have this correct all um already
[12:26] updated on the the stock uh terminal
[12:29] side. Okay. Good. So uh let's now keep
[12:31] going on to the the the broader risk
[12:33] factors here. So any kind of cost
[12:36] reductions at companies or increases in
[12:38] supply are the big risk factors for a
[12:40] company like this. So, some potential
[12:42] headwinds are going to include the fact
[12:44] that there are efforts now at Meta,
[12:45] Microsoft, and companies like Walmart to
[12:48] decrease this token maxing culture we've
[12:51] gotten into. Meta last week told
[12:53] employees that it would soon limit AI
[12:56] use after seeing an exponential increase
[12:58] in token maxing. I mean, in fairness,
[12:59] they were a little looney. They went for
[13:02] like, hey, let's have leaderboards and
[13:04] see how many tokens people are using and
[13:06] uh, you know, reward people based on
[13:08] token maxing. And so people were
[13:09] basically looping agents doing
[13:12] essentially very little in the way of
[13:13] productive work uh but maximizing their
[13:15] token usage. That's pretty dumb. So
[13:17] Meta's killing that. Walmart is killing
[13:19] that. Microsoft is now considering
[13:21] moving from OpenAI uh and Claude, mostly
[13:24] like a chat GPT40 level for Microsoft
[13:27] co-work and they're considering moving
[13:29] to Deep Seek V4, which is like a huge
[13:32] insult because now it means we're going
[13:33] from American LLM providers to sort of
[13:35] like a copycat and mega efficiency
[13:38] version DeepSseek, which you know, we
[13:40] highly expect DeepS basically trained
[13:42] our versions by just training off of the
[13:44] outputs of OpenAI. So kind of bypassing
[13:48] all of the training that OpenAI did,
[13:49] which is kind of brilliant, but also
[13:51] very evil. But when you switch models,
[13:53] you know, costs plummet. If you use
[13:55] Sonnet, you literally save about uh 95%
[14:00] of the cost that Opus costs over at
[14:02] Claude, you know. So you use Claude
[14:05] Opus, uh, you know, it costs you 20x
[14:07] what Sonic costs. And if you use Kimmy,
[14:10] which is a product from uh Moonshot AI,
[14:12] which is another Chinese startup, that
[14:14] costs you another 120th. So another 95%
[14:18] cost reduction. So cost reduction is is
[14:20] really a big key here. The more that we
[14:22] see, the less we end up seeing in the
[14:24] way of pricing power at chip
[14:26] manufacturers, but that's all a
[14:28] downstream effect, right? So that's why
[14:30] we're so focused on their guidance
[14:31] because we really think they're going to
[14:33] be able to guide strong for probably at
[14:35] least another year. Bloomberg
[14:37] Intelligence thinks they're going to
[14:38] have pricing power through the end of
[14:39] the decade. I kind of doubt that. They
[14:42] say there'll be limited supply between
[14:43] now and likely 2029 to 2030 and they
[14:46] expect higher pricing throughout 2027. I
[14:49] agree throughout 2027 like getting into
[14:52] next year. I agree with that all the way
[14:54] to the end of the decade. I do not agree
[14:55] with that and I'll explain why I don't
[14:57] agree with that and it has to do with
[14:58] the supply expansion uh in just a
[15:00] moment. uh but uh efficiency in models
[15:04] slowly even though it's model use is
[15:06] exploding token use on a second
[15:08] derivative we already know is declining
[15:10] right so uh token use if you look at the
[15:13] Google uh IO event we can see we went
[15:16] from 2024 to 2025 50x increase in token
[15:19] use now we're at about a 6.9x
[15:22] increase in token use and that'll
[15:24] probably keep declining in rate of
[15:26] growth so as we then get away from token
[15:29] maxing we'll see more of those declines
[15:30] times and eventually these this pricing
[15:34] power will fade over in chip companies.
[15:36] That's a warning for all chip companies.
[15:37] We know that. But for right now, things
[15:39] are looking really good and the company
[15:41] is trying to grow their capacity to
[15:43] because they're a big manufacturer of
[15:45] their own chips while they use uh third
[15:47] parties. They do manufacture a lot right
[15:49] now. They're paying down debt. Their
[15:51] balance sheet is really good. They've
[15:52] got plenty of cash to pay off all of
[15:54] their debt right now. Uh and they are
[15:55] actively paying down debt, which I think
[15:57] is a very smart move. And I think they
[15:59] know that. Uh, and even though they're
[16:01] paying down debt, they're also still
[16:03] blowing money on capex, expected to be
[16:05] 25 billion for the year, but they've
[16:07] also already spent over 11 billion for
[16:10] the first quarter. So, you know, I think
[16:11] that they spent a lot already. You know,
[16:14] almost half of their year's budget is
[16:16] already spent in the first quarter. But,
[16:17] you know, maybe that's just timing,
[16:18] right? But anyway, part of the reason
[16:20] they're expanding supply so much, and
[16:22] this is why I don't think they'll make
[16:23] it to the end of the decade with this
[16:24] sort of pricing power, is they're
[16:26] getting like $5.5 billion of subsidies
[16:28] from New York State. And on top of that,
[16:30] they get chips act 35% subsidies from
[16:33] the Biden era chips act. Now, Donald
[16:36] Trump has totally criticized the chip
[16:38] chips act, but in the background, they
[16:40] are actively running an office to manage
[16:43] who gets doled out tax credits through
[16:45] the chips act. So publicly, Trump bashes
[16:48] anything other presidents do, but in the
[16:50] background he's using it in a classic
[16:52] Trumpian style to pick winners. We we
[16:55] kind of know this is how Trump operates.
[16:57] It's not a dish. It's just literally
[16:59] calling it like it is. You know, uh it's
[17:02] it's almost sort of like saying, "Hey,
[17:03] can we get through a me Kevin video
[17:05] without here's a coupon over Kevin?"
[17:07] Now, in fairness, the price goes up over
[17:10] time. We've increased the price again
[17:12] and at the end of this month we're gonna
[17:14] have another big price increase because
[17:16] we're coming out with even more stuff.
[17:18] Uh and and we are spending a lot on R&D.
[17:20] So we're doing a lot to really give back
[17:21] to the community and uh that actually
[17:23] enables for those of you who don't want
[17:24] to pay a dime, you using this alphire
[17:27] service. I highly recommend you check it
[17:29] out. Uh the alphire service is pretty
[17:31] badass. Uh and let us know in the
[17:33] comments what you think about it. If you
[17:34] don't like it, delete the app and
[17:35] uninstall it. But honestly, like I I
[17:38] wouldn't shill something free uh like
[17:41] this if I didn't think it was great and
[17:43] you would be like, "Oh man, Kevin, yes,
[17:45] this is actually good. Thank you." Like
[17:48] really. Uh okay, so uh here's the
[17:50] problem with the expansion of supply.
[17:52] I'll go through this pretty quickly
[17:53] here. Singapore high bandwidth memory
[17:54] expansion uh coming online in calendar
[17:57] 2027. This is basically them saying
[17:59] they're meaningfully expanding their
[18:01] packaging for chips chip assembly uh for
[18:04] high bandwidth memory in 27. So, we're
[18:06] going to have a big increase in in their
[18:08] Singapore plant for HBM that increases
[18:10] supply on the top. Oh, wow. I just z I
[18:13] didn't realize I zoomed out all the way.
[18:14] Oh, that's interesting. I can I can
[18:16] actually control the zoom from my phone.
[18:17] That's kind of cool. Or my watch. That's
[18:20] kind of cool. But the downside of that
[18:21] is if you accidentally bump into it, you
[18:23] make a mess of your your angle.
[18:25] Hopefully, you didn't see uh you know,
[18:26] up my pants here. What pants? Anyway, so
[18:31] uh it works out. Anyway, um in September
[18:34] of 2022, they started their Boise, Idaho
[18:37] fab. Uh and they actually broke ground
[18:39] in 2023. Guess when that comes online?
[18:43] Mid 2027. Took about four years to
[18:45] develop. So that means you're going to
[18:47] have the Boise, Idaho Fab come online at
[18:49] the same time as their Singapore fab is
[18:51] expanding uh production. That's a lot
[18:53] more supply. And mind you, this is just
[18:55] Micron, right? Like the leader of memory
[18:57] production is actually Samsung. And then
[18:59] you've got SKHENX. Samsung sits about
[19:02] 38% market share. SKH Highex at 29%.
[19:05] Micron's actually only at about 22%.
[19:08] Now, something to keep in mind, they're
[19:09] one of the smallers. Uh now, if you look
[19:12] at uh their additional fab development,
[19:15] they have a second fab in Idaho that
[19:18] they're starting construction on this
[19:20] year, like right now, and they expect
[19:21] that to be online by the end of 2028. So
[19:24] between the middle of 2027 and the 18
[19:27] months thereafter, so middle of 27 to
[19:29] the end of 28, you're going to have like
[19:30] three fabs just from Micron coming
[19:32] online to start trying to realize this
[19:35] this, you know, price increase. Now, I
[19:38] think that there's an indication they're
[19:39] starting to try to rush these plants.
[19:41] You know, their first one took about
[19:42] four years. This next one's two and a
[19:44] half years of development. Maybe it's
[19:46] smaller, but to me, like if I were them,
[19:48] I'd get it. Like, hey, prices are really
[19:49] hot right now. Let's try to build these
[19:51] as soon as we can so we can print like
[19:53] make hay when the sun is shining. That's
[19:54] why they're paying off debt. They're
[19:56] really smart. At the same time they're
[19:57] paying off debt. They're using cash flow
[19:58] to build the machine. Very very smart.
[20:01] Now in the near term, Apple did warn uh
[20:04] that memory prices are going to uh
[20:06] increase the cost of Apple products and
[20:08] that's going to be unavoidable. I agree
[20:10] for the next year that's probably
[20:11] unavoidable. that could lead sales to
[20:14] fall at Apple, which in my opinion will
[20:17] drop the stock, which actually then
[20:19] becomes a buying opportunity for Apple.
[20:21] I think Apple is roughly fairly valued
[20:23] right now. The upside isn't that great.
[20:25] I'd love for them to get cheaper.
[20:26] Honestly, I would love an opportunity to
[20:28] get into Apple before they actually come
[20:31] out with an AI product. I'd like to be
[20:33] in it before they figure it out. Maybe
[20:34] they will never figure it out. I suppose
[20:36] that's a risk, but I'm not in it right
[20:37] now. But anyway, so you've got these
[20:39] expansions of these facilities to keep
[20:41] in mind. their GNA isn't really moving,
[20:43] which is, you know, just indicates
[20:45] they're really able to scale what they
[20:47] have right now. They do warn that uh
[20:49] cash from operations is highly dependent
[20:52] on selling prices, which are extremely
[20:53] volatile. We know that. That's why
[20:55] they're on the moon cycle right now
[20:57] because everything's just skyrocketing.
[20:59] But the durableness of those price
[21:00] increases will almost certainly fade.
[21:02] It's just a matter of like does supply
[21:04] ramp first to reduce that pricing or
[21:07] does demand slow down first or worse,
[21:09] both. When both supply increases and
[21:12] demand falls, this stock will absolutely
[21:15] tank really fast. It's gonna suck. Like,
[21:19] I would not want to hold this stock for
[21:20] the next 10 years. I would want to hold
[21:23] this stock potentially for the next
[21:24] year, especially if it tanks after
[21:26] earnings. They've got 53,000 employees,
[21:29] which is actually pretty impressive,
[21:30] more than I thought. And so, the bottom
[21:32] line here is that the hardware end isn't
[21:34] really close yet. You could get some
[21:36] volatility after earnings just like we
[21:38] saw with Broadcom. But frankly, it's
[21:40] probably going to be a buy the dip
[21:41] between now and next year when more uh
[21:44] chip supply comes online as long as
[21:48] hyperscalers don't U-turn on their capex
[21:50] yet, which there's really no sign of
[21:51] yet. But I think 2027 is probably that
[21:54] year where we start seeing some of the
[21:55] rollover. So in other words, still have
[21:57] time to go. The company's got a great
[21:59] valuation right now based on those Wall
[22:01] Street projections which could change.
[22:03] Balance sheet is really strong. This
[22:04] company is a gold mine. It is a really
[22:07] durable company as well. Like I don't
[22:09] think there's a chance that they could
[22:10] go bankrupt. Uh I know famous last
[22:12] words, but their balance sheet is so
[22:13] freaking strong and they're paying off
[22:15] debt knowing the crash is coming and
[22:18] they're just trying to milk as much
[22:19] money as they can between now and then
[22:20] and build the mo most robust
[22:22] infrastructure and grab the most market
[22:24] share they can. Honestly, they're smart.
[22:27] I really respect the executives at
[22:29] Micron. They are doing exactly what they
[22:31] should be doing. uh they are uh very
[22:33] disciplined, very strong company. I have
[22:35] very little bad to say about this
[22:37] company. Uh and uh I'm actually very
[22:39] excited about it. So uh Wednesday will
[22:41] be a very big day. Uh it is uh the day
[22:44] I'm coming back. So uh we'll we'll cover
[22:47] the earnings afterwards. But anyway, if
[22:49] you like this, consider subscribing and
[22:50] uh we'll see you in the next video.
[22:51] Goodbye and goodbye.