--- title: 'Bitcoin on the Edge? Forecast, Strategy, and Key BTC Levels | Crypto Market Review' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=pu8TabTHt_M' video_id: 'pu8TabTHt_M' date: 2026-07-23 duration_sec: 594 channel: 'ProMarket | Полунин Олег' --- # Bitcoin on the Edge? Forecast, Strategy, and Key BTC Levels | Crypto Market Review > Source: [Bitcoin on the Edge? Forecast, Strategy, and Key BTC Levels | Crypto Market Review](https://youtube.com/watch?v=pu8TabTHt_M) ## Summary In this weekend review, the analyst provides a comprehensive technical analysis of Bitcoin, highlighting conditions for a local short-term decline. Key factors include a bearish wedge pattern, decreasing volumes, and MACD signals, with a target zone around Fibonacci levels. The analysis emphasizes risk management and the importance of combining multiple indicators. ### Key Points - **Weekend Review Setup** [00:03] — The analyst records a weekend review due to hot chart information, focusing on a significant probability of a Bitcoin decline scenario. - **Local Decline Scenario** [01:14] — Conditions point to a local, short-term fall of Bitcoin into a highlighted zone based on Fibonacci 0 and 0.18 levels, with potential to update the minimum. - **Medium-Term Downward Trend** [02:51] — Since late January, a medium-term downward trend is evident, forming the first condition for the bearish outlook. - **Bearish Wedge Pattern** [03:43] — A bearish wedge correction structure is identified, which is a well-known technical analysis model. - **Decreasing Volumes and Divergence** [04:10] — Volumes are consistently falling from 74,500, showing a clear bearish divergence between price and volume on multiple timeframes. - **Wave Analysis** [05:10] — The decline can be marked as a five-wave impulse, with wave three being the brightest and largest, corresponding to the largest volume. - **MACD Signal** [07:21] — MACD on 4-hour and 5-hour timeframes shows a breakdown of histogram columns below the signal line, indicating a short signal. - **Price Targets** [08:17] — The model suggests a move to update local minimums at 73.5k, 72k, and possibly 71k dollars, with caution advised in the highlighted zone. ### Conclusion The analyst presents a bearish short-term outlook for Bitcoin based on multiple technical factors, but stresses that this is just an opinion and risk management is crucial. ## Transcript Good Sunday evening to all, friends. I'm filming a weekend review, although I planned to record the review for you on Monday, right at the opening of the new trading week. But the information on the chart is hot, I would say, relevant. And most importantly, it is sufficient to talk about the sufficient to talk about the significant probability of one or another scenario. I won't take up much of your time today. I will try to list the conditions that I see on the chart as briefly and quickly as possible. The scenario that you see right now is , uh, marked with arrows. I published this scenario yesterday on my Telegram channel, the link to which is in the description. The description also includes links to a free traders' club with training, indicators, a chat, access to me, the team, and other participants, as well as links to register on top centralized exchanges with the best conditions. Let's move on to the schedule, as I said, as quickly as possible. And first of all, yes, I would like to point out, friends, that the conditions that I see, based on a comprehensive analysis, based on the tools that I use in this comprehensive analysis, are all conditions for a local, short-term, local fall of Bitcoin, short-term, local fall of Bitcoin, at least into this highlighted zone. Although at the same time I am also considering the scenario of updating the minimum. But also considering the scenario of updating the minimum. But I highlighted this zone as important as the first I highlighted this zone as important as the first expected goal, within which expected goal, within which I will already see what will happen next. I'll be looking at what the market structure will look like if the price comes here and whether there will be any kind of buyer reaction from this zone. This is not some kind of magic zone, it is simply 0 and 018 levels according to Fibonacci. If the price comes here, then we will see whether it will look like a correction structure and so on. If we impulse- break this zone and go down, then the short position that I have the short position that I have open, this is a manual transaction, not based on algorithms, not automated trading, which means I will close it later. Stop. If you are placing a bet and you are wondering where to place a stop, but this is solely your risk, this is solely your action, for which solely your action, for which no one but you bears any absolute responsibility, I would put a plus or minus somewhere around here. Plus or minus somewhere around here. So, the first condition that I would like to point out is, naturally, the presence of, uh, a medium-term, even, one could say, medium-term, even, one could say, since, uh, the end of January, downward, that is, the since, uh, the end of January, downward, that is, the entire trend. And that is, first of all, yes, it is a trend. The second is the current structure that has been formed . I never shout here and don’t, in principle, push for any technical analysis figures, yes, because I, of course, see them, I, of course, mark them, show them to you , throw them on the chart, but it is important to use them simultaneously with other important conditions. And then the likelihood is that you will be right, you will be right in most cases, as I do. I am already at a very, very significant distance. This figure reminds us of a well- known, well -known model of chemical analysis called a bearish wedge, that correction structure that has the shape of, therefore, this wedge. Ah, the that is, this is the second condition, the third condition, which I really like is, naturally, decreasing volumes. We can double-check the ponansa. Volumes, well, it's worth looking at the ponance. Here we see a striking, ideal divergence between price and volume. From this area 4 74.500 consistently falling. What is important is that we see a consistent bearish divergence here. There is no need to force it , it is perfect, clear, and eye-catching. But here it is not at all unambiguous, bright and understandable. unambiguous, bright and understandable. It is also visible on the hourly timeframe. Further, if we talk about the market structure, we can also consider it from the market structure, we can also consider it from the point of view of waves. But, and, therefore, if we are talking about waves, then here it is , because it would be possible to note this wave. see the volumes visually. This wave could be marked as a three, that is, 1 2 3 4 5, because wave three is the brightest. This is the brightest impulse, the largest wave in terms of range and angle of inclination in the five-wave impulse cycle. And it corresponds to the largest volume. But we had more volume largest volume. But we had more volume here on this buyout, uh, and the buyout, and , because when this fall happened, there was an immediate this fall happened, there was an immediate upward surge on fake news and Trump's latest statements. So, everyone who was shorting here was taken out, and the drinking continued, yes. Absolutely, in fact, specifically this, yes, this is a manipulative story. And overall, given the news agenda that comes primarily from, yes, the President of the United States, there has indeed been plenty of manipulation in recent months. There really is plenty. Traders are stressed. Yes, and in general, for most traders, as in any market, both normal and bearish, in the current situation, things are especially not very situation, things are especially not very good. This means that I would consider this structure for now from the point of view of a correctional structure. We have wave one, wave two and wave three. If we have this wave of decline, that is, we had a movement and some correction occurred, here there was also a saw, a sideways movement. If we measure this entire structure with the same elementary, simple ruler, we see that we have already reached the 0.5 level, that is, this structure has already reached the correction zone bearish wedge. By the way, you can also look, look, then, at VRVP. Also look at the volume. If we open this section of the chart like this, we see that the price is trading near the shelf with the main volumes, and, yes, so far the maximum trading volume in this entire area. Well, and the last thing, friends, I would like to draw your attention to is also an indicator. And whenever I pay attention to it, I do it last. And I say that relying solely on it and taking it as some kind of main favorite tool is a bit of a story, because in the end it is an indicator. This is the MacD indicator. I use it at four and five o'clock. use it at four and five o'clock. We have a breakdown at both the five-hour and four-hour timeframes We have a breakdown at both the five-hour and four-hour timeframes , and it signals us about potential short positions, that short positions are currently we have a histogram all the time, that is, the red and green columns were above the yellow signal line. Now there has been a failure of the MaD histogram columns below the curved yellow signal line, which is a signal for a short. And also at the end of the video, friends, I want to note that in theory this model, that is, if that in theory this model, that is, if we are talking about technology, this model is not correct itself, but is more likely to update the data of the existing local minimums with a move to 73.5, 72 and, possibly, 71,000 dollars. Well, in this zone, which I highlighted, you need to be careful when the price comes here. Well, naturally, I'll also be leaving comments on my Telegram channel, and perhaps by that time I'll even record a review on that time I'll even record a review on YouTube. It's important to understand that, uh, none of this is YouTube. It's important to understand that, uh, none of this is accurate, that's just my humble opinion. I'm often right without beating myself up, but I can be wrong at any moment. Therefore, if you use this video, my opinion, you use this video, my opinion, this scenario, uh, to open some , be sure to follow risk management and only risk the amount of your deposit that you are willing to lose, so that later you don’t have a fit of hysteria, don’t take these antidepressants and don’t tear your hair out. That's all for today. Write what you think in the comments. Let me remind you that all the useful links are below; regardless of what platform you're on, you would n't have watched this video. Have a nice evening or morning or lunch everyone, I don't know what time train you're on. Success in the market and discipline. See you in the next video. Yeah.