---
title: 'The U.S. Can’t Afford a Recession — So They’ll Print Trillions'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=c5Q9aZFRyXc'
video_id: 'c5Q9aZFRyXc'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 881
---

# The U.S. Can’t Afford a Recession — So They’ll Print Trillions

> Source: [The U.S. Can’t Afford a Recession — So They’ll Print Trillions](https://youtube.com/watch?v=c5Q9aZFRyXc)

## Summary

This video argues that the U.S. government and Federal Reserve will do everything in their power to avoid a recession, because a downturn would devastate tax revenues, balloon deficits, and push the national debt past a breaking point. The presenter uses historical data from the past 25 years to show how recessions trigger a negative feedback loop, and concludes that the eventual response will be massive money printing.

### Key Points

- **Why recessions are 'not allowed'** [00:42] — The first reason is tax revenue: income taxes, corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, and payroll taxes all collapse during a recession, causing deficits to balloon.
- **Historical evidence: dot-com bust** [01:25] — Tax collections fell from $2.05 trillion in 2000 to $1.78 trillion in 2003 (-10%), turning a $240 billion surplus into a $380 billion deficit.
- **Great Recession impact** [02:48] — Tax revenue dropped 18% from $2.57 trillion (2007) to $2.11 trillion, and the deficit exploded from $160 billion to $1.41 trillion.
- **COVID stimulus set the precedent** [04:14] — In 2020, tax collections only dipped 1% thanks to massive stimulus, but the deficit ballooned from $980 billion to $3.13 trillion, cementing that a recession is 'unacceptable.'
- **Recessions hit the federal budget from both sides** [05:13] — Revenue goes down during a downturn while spending on unemployment benefits, social programs, and stimulus goes up, making deficits surge.
- **Debt-to-GDP at record levels** [06:55] — The national debt is roughly $39 trillion, this year's deficit is about $2 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio sits at 122% — near a dangerous breaking point.
- **The confidence-interest rate spiral** [08:47] — If investors lose confidence in U.S. debt management, Treasury yields rise, interest costs on $39 trillion of debt increase, and the government can't afford it.
- **The money-printing 'medicine'** [12:12] — To avoid recession and deflation, the Fed will choose to print trillions of dollars, accepting inflation, because the alternative is an economic depression.

### Conclusion

The U.S. economy has become too dependent on ever-increasing debt and investor confidence to allow a recession. The likely outcome is continued money printing to prop up the system, with inflation and long-term instability as the price.

## Transcript

afford a recession. In today's video, I'm going to tell you why recessions are Essentially, they're banished. If we do suffer negative GDP, the Federal Reserve and the governments are going to have to
step in due to necessity. Because if we enter into a recession, it doesn't just weaken the economy. It sets off a chain reaction that's going to hit the US governments, the bond markets, and your personal finances all at once.
And most people don't realize how connected all of this really is, and that's a shame because if you understand this, then you're going to know how to stock markets. So, this information is
market investor. So, let's review why recessions are no longer allowed in the US. The first reason is tax revenue. collections. We're talking about income
taxes, corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, and payroll taxes. Now, here's the problem. When there's a recession, tax collections drop. That's because people lose jobs, businesses earn less, and
stocks decline. This means that there's less income to tax, less profit to tax, and fewer investment gains to tax. So, everything slows down at the same time, and this isn't just theory. We
have real data from prior recessions that shows exactly what happens when the economy contracts. So, tax collections go down, and the deficits balloon. Now, I want to show you the data for the past 25 years, and you're going to notice
that when we don't have a recession, tax collections normally increase. And that's simply because of inflation. They print money, and then the cost of So, incomes are going to go up, too. You know, not as much as the cost of living,
but incomes will still increase because of inflation. And when incomes go up, the government collects more taxes because people have higher taxable income. But when there's a recession, you'll
notice that tax collections go down. I want you to take a look. In the early 2000s, there was a recession. It was the aftermath of the dot-com crash, the tech bubble burst. There was also 9/11, which shocked the
economy and damaged travel, tourism, and business confidence. In the year 2000, the government collected 2.05 trillion in taxes. By collected 2.05 trillion in taxes. By 2003, tax collections had fallen by 10%
to 1.78 trillion. So, in the year 2000, the government you know, they actually balanced their books and they had a surplus of $240 billion. But, because of the recession and lower tax collections, in 2003, the government
tax collections, in 2003, the government slipped into a deficit of 380 billion. Great Recession. In 2007, the government collected 2.57 trillion in taxes. But, once the recession hit, it fell to
But, once the recession hit, it fell to 2.11 trillion. So, that's an 18% drop in tax collections. And that caused the deficit to go from And that caused the deficit to go from 160 billion in 2007 to 1.41 trillion in
So, here's what happened. People lost jobs, so income tax revenue dropped. Businesses lost profits, so corporate tax revenue declined. And the stock market crashed, which caused capital gains taxes to collapse.
So, everything hit all at once, and as a result, the federal deficit surged. Now, example, 2020. When the economy shut down during the COVID recession, tax revenue decreased. And at the same time, government
spending surged due to stimulus programs. So, in 2019, the government collected 3.46 trillion in taxes. In 2020, the government collected 3.42 trillion, which is a decrease of 1%.
So, the drop in tax collections was not severe because the government and the Federal Reserve reacted quickly with stimulus to save the economy and the markets. However, you know, that came at a cost. I mean,
a situation where there's a slight decrease in tax collections, right? But, a huge increase in stimulus spending by the government to prevent a severe So, this is when the Federal Reserve and government realized that a recession was
unacceptable. The deficit skyrocketed from $980 billion in 2019 to 3.13 And then, I do want to point this out. This is like a notable mention. From
This is like a notable mention. From 2022 to 2023, tax collections fell from 4.9 trillion to 4.44 trillion, which is a decrease of 9%. And then, the deficit went up from 1.38 trillion to 1.7 trillion.
During this period, tax collections fell due to declining capital gains, pandemic programs that lowered tax collections. You know, there was a you know, a bunch of programs, but you know, an example would would be the employee retention
And this is the pattern. Recessions don't just slow down the economy. They hit the federal budget from both sides. Revenue goes down and spending goes up. Now, here's why this matters even more today.
The problem lies with the government's national debts. The question is, when is this house of cards all going to come crashing down? knows precisely when it's going to happen.
However, the truth is that as the national debt grows larger, it becomes a higher percentage of the GDP, we get closer to that breaking points. And because there's uncertainty of where that breaking point is, that's why the
Federal Reserve and government are scared to death to allow a recession. house of cards propped up for as long as possible. And that brings us to the second piece, the national debts. Each year the government spends more
deficit. And those deficits get added to the national debt, how it's been accumulating and just accelerating. This is up until fiscal year 2025. Right now the United States has roughly
in debts. And that number continues to rise. This year the government's going to collect roughly $5 trillion and they're going to spend roughly above $7 trillion. So it's a $2 trillion deficit
And that's going to be $2 trillion more of additional debts that's going to be added towards our national debts. And I also want to show you the debt to This is from the Federal Reserve's website, it goes back to the 1960s. And
the debt to GDP ratio is currently at 122%. So this shows you the debts compared to the size of the economy. The higher it is, of course, the worse our situation is. So I want you to take a look at what
happened to the debt to GDP during recessions. I've highlighted in red the early 2000s, the Great Financial Crisis, and the pandemic. Again, what happens during a recession? The economy contracts. Tax collections
go down. The government spends more money on stimulus. So the deficit goes up. Which means that the government needs to borrow more money. So ultimately the economy shrinks. And
they borrow more money. Okay, but we're already at a dangerous debt to GDP level. But you might say, well, other countries have higher debt to GDP ratios. Well, to respond to that, I'll tell you
those countries, they really haven't been thriving economically. And two, they don't have the reserve asset or the reserve currency of the world.
world, we're supposed to be fiscally sound with a responsible monetary policy. And if we have a recession, then what's that going to spike the debt to GDP to? 140%? 160%?
to the to that point of the house of cards just collapsing. But I just want you to know that if a recession hits, tax collections fall, but government spending doesn't follow with it.
In fact, it usually increases. Unemployment benefits arise, social programs expand, and emergency spending gets approved. And that causes the deficits to surge. Now, a very good question is, why is a rising debt to GDP
a problem? It's because it raises concerns in the reality. The US government is addicted to overspending, and the US government needs investors to lend them money.
Investors buy Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. So, these are essentially IOUs. Confidence that the US government can manage its debt, confidence that
inflation won't erode returns, and confidence that the system is going to remain stable. If that confidence starts to weaken, then that's a problem. And that leads us to the next piece of
this, interest rates. If investors lose confidence in the government's ability to manage their finances, then interest rates will rise. That's because investors will demand a higher interest rates for lending money
higher interest rates for lending money to the US governments. Okay, why? Because if something is risky, then you need to be compensated more with a risk. If you lend money to a risky borrower,
compensated with a higher interest rates, right? And the government cannot afford to pay a higher interest rates on their debts. It's because the government is in debt $39 trillion and rising fast.
on their $39 trillion that they borrowed. trillion on interest payments, which is of course a lot. And I want you to think about that. They collect $5 trillion in taxes and they
need to make interest payments of $1 trillion. And if if the debt goes even higher with a higher interest rates, then it's going to be game over. Higher interest payments and lower tax
collections. Like you see what I'm saying? Like the math doesn't work out. And I want you to know that this doesn't just affect the governments. Interest rates on government debts on US Treasuries influence almost every
And we're talking about mortgage rates, auto loans, credit cards, business loans, etc. When interest rates on Treasuries rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for consumers as well. Now, I want you to think about that situation.
A recession begins, tax revenues fall, deficits increase, debt rises, GDP declines, and that's going to push the debt-to-GDP ratio even higher. And then investors are going to get nervous,
interest rates are going to rise, borrowing costs will increase, and even further. And that's going to create a negative feedback loop. And once it starts, it can accelerate very quickly. Now, let's
can accelerate very quickly. Now, let's add another layer to this. Deflation. At first glance, deflation might sound like a good thing. Prices go down and things become more affordable, right? And some people might say, "Well, I I
welcome a recession because prices will come down." But, at the same time, deflation increases the real burden of debts. If incomes are falling, but the debt stays the same, then that debt will become harder to pay back.
the governments. If the government's tax collections fall, but the debt level stays the same or goes even higher, then of course it's going to become even harder to repay. Which again shakes the confidence of
said, it brings us to the main point. The it brings us to the main point. The United States cannot afford a recession. a medicine to cure a recession and deflation within a matter of weeks.
It's called money printing. So, it's very simple. When the economy's how do you fix it? You just print trillions of dollars. And why wouldn't the government and the Federal Reserve take the medicine? Like,
if a doctor tells you, "You've been diagnosed with this thing, and if you don't treat it, then you're you're only going to have 2 weeks left to live. But, if you take this medicine, it's going to severely damage one of
your organs, and you'll have 5 years to live." You know, in that case, most people would opt to take the medicine. face of a recession to do two things. The first thing is do nothing,
and throw the country into an economic depression like soon. Or two, print money, prevent a recession, and deal with inflation. You know, of course they're going to go
with number two to stall to buy time. And I'll say, "What do the politicians care?" Because they serve two, four and six-year terms. They're They're just going to kick the can down the road and have the next politician deal with it.
My opinion is that their mentality the mentality of the politicians is become a politician, make as much money as they can for themselves and their families and their circle of friends, and then have someone else deal with the
problem. Like what do they care? You know, when they're out of office and the country goes to crap, they're just going to move to another country with billions of dollars and be living like kings.
dollars. They're going to be holding gold, land, real estate, physical their wealth. Okay, I think I've showed you the data, I showed you the logic. And listen, if you agree with
what I'm saying, I'm telling you, come join me on my Patreon site. It's an investment community that is aware of everything that's happening and we refuse to be abused and taken advantage of by the current system.
So come get your questions answered, you can bounce ideas, join our chat room. can see what I'm investing in. I'm going to leave a link for you down below. Thank you so much and wish you a very nice day. Take care.