--- title: 'Will Crypto Fall Further? What''s Happening with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=QOkKbgPe9X8' video_id: 'QOkKbgPe9X8' date: 2026-07-31 duration_sec: 1295 --- # Will Crypto Fall Further? What's Happening with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins > Source: [Will Crypto Fall Further? What's Happening with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins](https://youtube.com/watch?v=QOkKbgPe9X8) ## Summary In this weekly crypto analysis, trader Artem Zvezn (QuanInvestor, CB certificate) examines how renewed US-Iran tensions and the resulting oil price shock are affecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins. He combines geopolitical reasoning with volume-profile technical analysis to provide long- and short-term forecasts, while also promoting his one-on-one trading course. ### Key Points - **Format and credentials** [00:15] — Zvezn Artem Anatolyevich, trading since 2008 and a QuanInvestor, introduces a weekly crypto analysis format and calls for viewer activity to keep the series going. - **Main geopolitical factor** [01:34] — The resumption of the US-Iran conflict and new tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are the primary non-crypto drivers of current market moves. - **Crypto is a risky asset** [02:42] — Cryptocurrency behaves as a high-beta asset, not a safe haven; geopolitical risk pushes investors to expect Fed rate hikes and flee risk assets. - **Oil-to-rates transmission mechanism** [03:13] — War raises oil prices, oil feeds inflation expectations, inflation leads to anticipated rate hikes, and tighter rates are hostile to high-beta assets like crypto. - **Fed official signals possible hikes** [03:26] — On July 13, Fed member Christopher Wahl said rate hikes may be needed in the near term if core inflation stays high. - **Geopolitics changes demand, not just price** [04:52] — A study shows rising geopolitical risk increases trade volumes in crypto, especially in areas valuing capital mobility, but this volume can also reflect exits rather than accumulation. - **Rotation from alts to blue chips** [07:07] — Investors who stay in crypto during geopolitical stress move money from altcoins, memes, and scams into fundamental coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. - **Bitcoin technical outlook** [08:00] — The largest volume is in the 70,000 range, considered too expensive; a prior review predicted a move down to level 52, and the market is currently showing divergence with falling volumes. - **Bitcoin forecast: sideways then lower** [10:47] — Long-term bias remains downward toward 59-60 and possibly 52; short-term, BTC is locked in a sideways range with no strong buying or selling volume. - **Ethereum: bottom not yet confirmed** [11:42] — ETH is near historical support levels on the weekly chart, but declining volumes indicate the bottom may not be found; it could fall below 1,500. - **Ethereum key levels** [12:26] — The largest volume sits at 1,500; lack of serious accumulation compared to April 2025 suggests downside targets of 1,400 and possibly 1,000. - **Solana: possible bullish rollback** [14:30] — Solana's decreasing volumes during correction could indicate a bullish rollback structure, but the overall bearish wave caps upside; probability of a long is 30% (target 90-97) vs 70% chance of decline to 52. - **UNI: pending order at $2** [17:35] — Recommendation to set a pending buy order at $2 expecting a squeeze; key scenario is a move beyond 4,000, liquidity capture, then drain to 2. - **Nalin tea (altcoin) in downtrend** [19:07] — The coin is locked in a downtrend with accumulation overhead; most likely scenario is sideways trading until fresh capital enters the market. - **Cardano: bearish 'waterfall' structure** [20:00] — Cardano is in a serious bearish trend; any geopolitical-driven growth is an exit opportunity, and the price is likely to continue down to the 10 range. ### Conclusion The crypto market is being pulled between geopolitical risk and technical support, with Bitcoin and Ethereum likely to drift lower while altcoins remain vulnerable. Traders should watch volume signals closely, as a sharp volume-backed move could determine the next directional leg. ## Transcript Let's test the new format. Let's talk about cryptocurrency. I will analyze the main cryptocurrency coins and also discuss the geopolitical and economic situation that influences the cryptocurrency market. I plan to do similar releases once a week. I'll see your reaction. If the reaction is sluggish, like mine and yours after 45, then, in general, we won’t release it. Therefore, it is in your interest to show your activity. My name is Zvezn Artem Anatolyevich. I have been trading in the markets since 2008, I am a QuanInvestor, CB certificate. Here is my yield chart. Let's go. So, before we start driving, advertising integration. We are still looking for students for personal, one-on-one work. Personal in-person work involves meeting with a teacher three times a week for two months. This is a very intensive course where you will be fully explained the curriculum, you will create a trading system and will trade under supervision. That is, it is a kind of trading with a tutor. Incredibly cool format of effective. There is no point in arguing with this. That is, these are not some kind of video recordings or video courses or anything like that. This is a personal work tet-a-tet. Personally with a person, not in a group, on calls. So scan this QR code. I will also leave a link in the description and in the comments. If you are interested, please leave your request and my assistant will contact you and explain the details. We work officially in Belaya under a contract. So, we'll start with economic and political news. If we explain the movement through the prism of ongoing geopolitical events, then the main factor is, of course, not domestic cryptocurrency news, but the resumption of the conflict between the United States and Iran. and new tensions around the Armur left. Reuters writes that on July 13, Donald Trump officially notified Congress that hostilities with Iran would resume and continue. At the time of the recording, Donald Trump said that the Strait of Armour was under the protection and control of the United States. And in general, all this fuss starts again. In general, I’m even amazed why Donald In general, I’m even amazed why Donald Trump was accepted, so to speak, Okay, political story. On July 14th, oil prices are going down. Next we will look at VTI grade oil. It is currently at a small maximum and has grown quite well, almost by 50%. This is a very important fork in the road for cryptocurrency, actually. Because when geopolitical risk rises, through which a very significant portion of the world's oil flows, crypto begins to react not as some isolated world and, you know, a safe haven for investments, yes, there is no smell of a safe haven for investments here, because cryptocurrency is a risky asset. When geopolitical risks rise, of course, investors expect the Fed to raise rates and, as a result, flee high-risk assets. The mechanics here are actually very simple. The war in the oil sector ultimately hits the price of oil. Oil hits inflation risks. Inflation risks lead to expectations of an increase in the lending rate. And tight rates are a bad environment for high-risk assets, so-called high-beta assets, including crypto. It concerns her directly. And there have even already been statements made here. On July 13, been statements made here. On July 13, Fed member Christopher Wahl said bluntly that rate hikes may be needed in the near term if core inflation remains high. Well, that is, investors expected that it would be one thing, but then this red-haired clown showed up again and said: “No, guys, it will be something completely different.” Autocrats always like to do things differently from what everyone else does, differently from what everyone expects. Everyone goes to the right, but the Autocrat will go to the left, even if it is unprofitable and harms the economy. Nobody cares. The fact is that this is a purely psychological issue. By the way, I have a channel dedicated to psychopaths. You can scan this QR code and check it out. There we are looking at exactly these options where a person has a whistling flask and he takes power. That is, a geopolitical shock hits the fortress not only through some kind of fortress not only through some kind of fear, but also through the cost of money. And this directly affects Bitcoin and Ethereum today, and this is very critical, because after the so- this is very critical, because after the so- called ETF, when we all expected that money from the BKR and everything else, from these very ETFs, would come into the market, this effect has already ended for us, unfortunately. There is a second mechanic here that I would like to discuss, and it is a little more subtle. Geopolitics, unfortunately or fortunately, does not immediately kill the interests of cryptocurrency. Sometimes it simply changes the very form of this demand. An interesting study was recently published on the influence of geopolitics on the so-called risk of Bitcoin purchases. And this research shows that rising geopolitical risk significantly increases trade volumes, especially in areas where people value capital mobility and alternative channels. access to liquidity. But this does not mean at all that Bitcoin will grow in this regard. No, we are talking about increasing the volume. Increased volume - this could also be exits from Bitcoin. By the way, we are going to talk about this now . In practice, over the past month we have seen a rather mixed picture. That is, on the one hand, there was a serious geopolitical factor that put pressure on the price through the so-called OFA risk when military actions ended. and oil prices quickly went down, yes, and in this regard, the crypto market, in general, yes, grew a little. All of this also caused a local influx into ETFs and, periodically, naturally, pulled up the underlying assets there in the form of Bitcoin and Ether. But we have a second season again, which we just talked about, a second season with a war with Iran. And in this regard, cryptocurrency, if we are talking specifically about geopolitical risks, may simply go sideways. But we will talk about this with you on the technical side. Question. There is another mechanic - this is the influence on cryptocurrency through anxiety and through expectations. When the background, the news background by which I mean, becomes more alarming, money usually leaves complex instruments and moves to very simple ones. What does this mean in practice? In practice, it means the same thing. Here we have a complex instrument in the form of Bitcoin, Ethereum. To get there, you need to buy ETFs. The purchase is quite complex in that regard, as the profitability structure of Bitcoin and Ethereum is quite complex. That is, this is mining, this is everything else. It is much easier to buy bonds, it is much easier to transfer, and, accordingly, to transfer money into the debt accordingly, to transfer money into the debt market. And this also applies to the army's beloved alt-season, which no one will wait for, and I think it will not happen at all. Research shows that people who chose to remain in the crypto market during times of increased geopolitical risk are withdrawing money from altcoins and moving toward more fundamental coins like Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Salana, which we'll be looking at today. They're also leaving the market for memes, scams, and so on, because investors are interested in fundamental assets during times of geopolitical tension . This is if we are talking about those who nevertheless decided to stay in crypto. So, now tools that, in general, fell into my clutches today. I would tools that I should look at next time, if there is a next episode. We'll start , of course, with Bitcoin. Let's look at bitcoins together. Neronka wrote to me here that the focus was on ETF sales, specifically the company StratG, which had news about the transfer of confiscated bitcoins from the US to Coinbs Prime. In general, there is no real news. In general, this is a crap question, so to speak. Yes, friends, we are watching Denvuh. Let me remind you that our largest volume is in the range of 70,000. And let me remind you that this is an area where it is too expensive. We also had a major review, and it predicted that we would go lower to level 52. At the moment, we see how the market has moved upward. It moved upward quite powerfully against the backdrop of, again, a decrease in geopolitical tensions, but at the same time geopolitical tensions, but at the same time we see a decrease in volume against the backdrop of growth and contraction of this volatility. The chart here doesn't show that anyone is, you know, moving locked assets somewhere or selling them, or anything like that, because we see a decrease in volumes, yes, a decrease in volumes against the backdrop of growth indicates the so-called divergence of price and volume, that is, a discrepancy. This is a sign that market participants are refusing to buy at high prices. That is, we simply don’t have any buyers here. On the contrary, the participants are looking for an opportunity to somehow get out. Because if we look, again, at the reaction of the fall in our country, when the market falls, with your permission, of course, I will zoom in on the chart, when our market falls, it falls quite sharply and falls on volumes. At the same time, it grows very slowly. Please note that we get one growth candle, 2, 3, four growth candles, then a fall occurs, which closes this growth for 2 days. Next point. One, two, well, three, you could say, yes, three such candles, one of which is neutral, two bullish candles. The market also moves upward and literally in one candle it completely eats it all up. Moreover, he eats in increased quantities. All this clearly indicates that we are in a bearish trend. Let me remind you that we had a lot of interest in the 60,000 level. Let's adjust 60,000 level. Let's adjust this level together and set it to 60,000. And now our market is quite tightly locked down. That's right, locally. If we're talking about the local situation, it will lock us into this sideways movement very powerfully, because we have people selling at the top in fairly large volumes, and we have people buying at the bottom in fairly large volumes. At the same time, we see that bullish volumes are decreasing, as are, in general, bearish volumes. That is, such a situation of complete uncertainty is local. So, the long-term forecast. We're continuing to move toward level 5960. That means we could even fall to level That means we could even fall to level 52. This is a long-term scenario, unless new geopolitics emerges. In the long term we have a downward movement. In the short term we have a sideways situation. Now, do you understand what the matter is? Bitcoin now looks like these Soviet scales with two dogs, yes, these old ones. We don’t have enough strength to go up, there is no liquidity, and we don’t have enough strength to go down, there is also no liquidity. And that’s why our market is in a kind of balance. How long he will remain in it will depend on the current geopolitical situation. But if, for example, powerful news or large capital comes into the market, it is very easy to get out of this balance. For now, we see that there is a possibility of this balance being traded downwards, especially since we have quite strong volumes at the top. Let's look further. Ethereum is currently hyped by the news that corporate clients are buying it and starting to accumulate it because the price is quite attractive for them. Let's look at the situation on the weekly chart. Looks much more interesting as a long-term purchase than Bitcoin. Of course, we see that we have dropped to the level of, it turns out, April twenty- fifth. even October 23, June 22, March twenty-first. That is, we are now locally at a pretty good bottom. Just like with Bitcoin, we see a decline in trading activity and falling volumes, which indicates that the bottom has not yet been found. This means that we can go below the 1.500 level. What I would like to do here is to impose it on the volume, on this entire large interval. And let's overlay it and see that our largest volume was formed precisely at the 1,500 level. So, these arguments regarding the fact that corporate holders are now buying bitcoins are essentially meaningless. In any case, the volumes indicate this. Another issue is that there is no serious accumulation here, as there was, for example, in April of 25. Pay attention to what the volume was in April, in March of the twenty-fifth year, after which there was growth against the backdrop of the liquidity that was coming in. We don't see this liquidity now. We see that in June of 26, there was some kind of influx of liquidity, but nothing happened, meaning the market still fell further down. Let's switch to the daily timeframe and look at the reax on the volumes that are occurring. The reaction is very sluggish. But here, if we are talking about purchases, there are no serious purchases yet. Here we have this peak in July, which was the case for 20 years. We see that the subsequent reaction is the appearance of a sideways trend. We also see that the majority of our work took place in February, in January of 1926. There were also purchases here at the 1900 level. And this money was also not enough to turn around. Therefore, here, accordingly, we expect the market to go further down. And to the range of approximately $1,000. And 1,000 dollars is a round number. But we will have to look closer there and see what will be there, well, closer, accordingly, yes, to this range. Let's set an intermediate target - 1.400. Accordingly, we move further downwards. I will write it down as, that is, short behind demand, that is, movement behind demand 1.400. And I write under the question 1,000. Either I didn't sleep well today, or I'm about to experience something serious. It seemed to me that I had already done this review. And it was as if after this review I saw a big downward candle on the chart. This just finished chewing for me. Apparently he didn't sleep well. Well, who knows, maybe it was a prophetic thing. Let the editor put this in the episode. Then I wonder if it will come true or not. And let's continue watching the salon. Here we see a similarly serious drop in volumes. This is, well, unlike Bitcoin and unlike Ethereum, in this case it may indicate the formation of such a bullish trend, as strange as it may sound. Although it is surprising, because in general both Bitcoin and Ethereum look positive, but Salmon looks bullish. But this does not mean that there will be a purchase here tomorrow, or anything like that . We see how we had a serious paralysis, a rebound, and notice that we had an increase in volumes. That is, our volumes grew, and is, everything was positive. Now we see a correction and during the correction we see a continued drop in volumes. This structure may be precisely a rollback structure. And here, as it were, the further question arises: a rollback to what? To this bullish movement . But at the same time, we see that we are in this bearish wave, and this big bearish wave is pressing down on us like a slab . Look, it's a bearish trend. Therefore, here, if we are going to talk about some kind of, I don’t know, some kind of reversal of the trenches, it will only be short-term and within the range of 100, yes, and even then it’s not a fact. Let's apply the volume profile here and see where the maximum volume was concentrated. It was concentrated at the 150 level. And let's push this maximum interest is. The maximum interest is actually at 150. Let's interest is actually at 150. Let's designate this level as 150. And let's put it here. Let's write the maximum offer, the maximum interest. And we see that we are at the bottom of this accumulation, and we have started to experience a rollback to this accumulation. Let's designate this accumulation with a rectangle and see exactly the test of this rectangle. So, if we talk about probability, here the probability is an upward movement, that is, into the collapse of this triangle. And let's define this scenario as follows. Let's mark it with a dash-dotted line and write the probability of a dash-dotted line and write the probability of a long as 30%. 70% that we will have some negative news in the near future, and we will slide lower to the 52 level. So, if we are talking about long, what should you see? You should see a bullish candle appear like this. And immediately after this bullish candle, there previous one. This will give you a trading signal. That is, you should see a your market goes up. That is, you see, is on volume. That is, a sharp increase in volume indicates that buyers will begin to enter our market. If something like this happens, then we're moving toward like this happens, then we're moving toward 90 to 97. If something like this doesn't happen and you see a drop, for example, down here , also based on the appearance, also based on volume, this will open the door for you to move toward level 50. A fork in the road has now appeared. So, Nero suggested that I look at some uni coin, so I ask you guys, please write, I even have some kind of arrow here. I once did a review. She's grown up quite well, by the way. So I ask you guys, please write comments on what to watch. So, uni, let's build the key levels together. They look like this. So, what I would recommend to you here, and probably what I will do myself, if I don’t forget, of course, is to set a pending order at the level of $2 for a purchase, counting on the appearance of such a squeeze, because the coin is squeezed, and it is obvious that such a squeeze will happen sooner or later with a very short take-profit. At the moment, we see how we have an increase in volume as we approach this boundary, and it is important to monitor the reaction. And the reaction here is sluggish, like yours after juice. we see how brake candles appear. That is, we see how the market is slowly starting to slow down. Each subsequent candle slows down and a tail appears. But there is still no trigger that would trigger buyers who came here. This is where the customers came in. This is where the buyers came in. As soon as you see a trigger in the form of a pattern like this, you can the form of a pattern like this, you can safely short to about the $2 range . And let's apply the volume profile and see what the maximum volume is, which is exactly where we are now. Again, such a fork appears. So, the key scenario. The key scenario is a move beyond the 4,000 level, the capture of liquidity, followed by a drain to two. This is the key scenario. What you need to see here is a reversal formation. Let's watch Nalin tea with you. This means that Nalin tea is in a serious downtrend here. And we are locked in quite well . We have accumulation at the top . We are trading below it. And if we look further into history, we see that we also had accumulation before. That is, it turns out that we are now locked in accumulation. As for volumes, we see a decrease in volumes against the backdrop of growth. We see how each subsequent candle becomes smaller than the previous one. This is a refusal of buyers to buy at higher prices. Therefore, what is most likely happening here is locking within this sidewall and trampling within this sidewall. We also see how the market traded slightly sideways in the range of seven below . Therefore, the most likely scenario here is a subsequent sideways movement. The sideways movement will end when capital comes into the market. That is, if we have good dominant news in the market, we will break out of this sideways movement. Let's watch the damned Cardana together. Here they simply drain and drain the cardan shaft quite strongly. Just a serious bearish trend. Moreover, to grow slightly due to some geopolitical agenda, all this is not an entry to buy, but rather an exit. The fact that this is an exit indicates that we are experiencing growth in volumes and then a slow drain occurs. That is, if this were demand, we would see an upward movement, a subsequent pullback and some kind of sideways movement above the middle of this movement. This movement can be interpreted as exits. It was roughly repeated here somewhere around here. That is, it is clear that the coin has a fairly classic structure: when the market grows, through volumes, it reaches a certain level, and a run-off occurs. I do n't know if you know such a veteran of trading, Sillen Hamster. If anyone knows, please write in the comments. He was at SmartLab at one time. I don't know if it exists now. I haven't been sitting there for a long time. And now Salin Hamster called this one of the models. And he called it waterfalls. By waterfalls he meant precisely this kind of flowing. That is, when the market moves somewhere and then flows down like a waterfall. Well, it's the same here . Therefore, it is most likely that after some kind of rollback, the movement will already [snort] further down to the 10 range. That is, approximately here. Here, of course, we will have strong demand, because we will be moving to a different order of numbers, but we will see. Well, that's all for today. I wish you good luck, happiness and personal work, please leave your request. Bye, please leave your request. Bye, see you later. earn.