---
title: 'How to Know When to Buy and Sell Stocks'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=KB5ht2ssXkg'
video_id: 'KB5ht2ssXkg'
date: 2026-08-19
duration_sec: 84
channel: 'TradingLab'
---

# How to Know When to Buy and Sell Stocks

> Source: [How to Know When to Buy and Sell Stocks](https://youtube.com/watch?v=KB5ht2ssXkg)

## Summary

This video explores a stock market investment strategy based on the U.S. presidential election cycle. The creator tests a claim that markets perform better in the final years of a president's term, finding a historically consistent pattern of positive returns when buying two years before an election and selling on election day.

### Key Points

- **The Political Cycle Strategy** [00:04] — A person named Stanley advises that the way to time the political cycle is to buy the market two years before the general election and sell it on the election day, based on the idea that governments manipulate the economy to look good in election years.
- **Validating with Data** [00:17] — The creator asks ChatGPT for average stock market returns for each year of the presidential cycle. The statistics support Stanley's claim, showing lower returns in the first two years of a term and higher returns in the final two years.
- **Backtesting the Strategy** [00:29] — The creator marks every year from 1980 to the present, identifying years two years before a president was elected and the election years themselves. Following the strategy of buying two years before and selling on election day would have resulted in positive returns every single time.
- **The Only Losing Year** [00:56] — Out of 40 years, the only time the strategy would have resulted in negative returns was the 2004 presidential election, where an investor would have basically broken even.
- **The Next Opportunity** [01:11] — The video concludes by suggesting that if an investor were to follow this strategy, 2026 would be the year to buy, and 2028 would be the year to sell.
- **Call for Engagement** [01:11] — The creator asks viewers for their opinion on the strategy, inviting discussion and engagement in the comments.

### Conclusion

The video presents a backtested, historically consistent market timing strategy based on the U.S. presidential election cycle, suggesting a potential buy signal in 2026 and a sell signal in 2028. However, it does not discuss risks, costs, or the potential for the pattern to break in the future.

## Transcript

he said, "Stanley, the way you time the political cycle is you buy the market and then you sell it on the general election because they always rig things to be good in the election year." >> Let's try it. First, I'm going to ask
Chat GPT what the average returns are for each year of the presidential cycle. The statistics surprisingly backed up what Stanley was saying. Years one and two of the president being elected generally had lower returns while the
end of their term generally had higher returns. Then I went to the chart and this is where things started to become very very eye opening. I marked every single year from 1980 till now and marked 2 years before the president
actually got elected. Then I marked every single year the president actually got elected. If you simply followed the strategy of investing 2 years before the president got elected, then selling when the president actually got elected, you
would have made positive returns every single time. Let me repeat that. Positive returns every single time. Out of the 40 years, the only time we had negative returns was the presidential election of 2004 where you basically
broke even. That's insane. What's even crazier is if you decided to follow this advice, 2026 is the year you would be buying and 2028 is the year you would buying and 2028 is the year you would sell. What do you guys think?