[00:00] some of the most beatable lines that a&nbsp; sports book puts out are on player prop&nbsp;&nbsp; bets however there is one major mistake&nbsp; that most betters make when betting props&nbsp;&nbsp; I'll show you step by step how to beat player&nbsp; props and how to avoid that mistake in this
[00:17] video hi I'm Jack from unabated when I was first&nbsp; starting out in sports betting over 20 years ago&nbsp;&nbsp; I build up my bankroll crushing player prop bets&nbsp; the lines were probably easier to beat back then&nbsp;&nbsp;
[00:32] but we didn't have nearly the variety of bet&nbsp; options that are available to today's bettors&nbsp;&nbsp; we also didn't have the tools available that&nbsp; we do today to spot the edges quickly and to&nbsp;&nbsp; get the bets down swiftly in a previous video&nbsp; we explored how beating sports betting doesn't&nbsp;&nbsp;
[00:50] have to be about predicting the future it's more&nbsp; about price and probability that method is known&nbsp;&nbsp; as top-down betting and if you haven't watched&nbsp; that video it'll be linked below many of the&nbsp;&nbsp;
[01:02] reasons that top-down betting works for game sides&nbsp; and totals are the same reasons why it's not the&nbsp;&nbsp; preferred approach for beating player props you&nbsp; see top- down betting relies on Sharp BS shaping&nbsp;&nbsp;
[01:15] the lines at sharper books that will take their&nbsp; action you then use that as your cue as to what&nbsp;&nbsp; the line should be their sharp liquidity hammers&nbsp; the line into shape however player props typically&nbsp;&nbsp;
[01:27] don't have massive liquidity in their Market&nbsp; markets it's a much tougher bet for a Sharp&nbsp;&nbsp; hook to handle so they don't take as much on these&nbsp; bets for both the sharp bets and the sharp books&nbsp;&nbsp;
[01:39] it's not a priority you can't effectively use top-&nbsp; down betting on props when it comes to props the&nbsp;&nbsp; better approach is to find trustworthy projections&nbsp; as your source of Truth and use them as your guide&nbsp;&nbsp;
[01:52] sometimes paying for these projections can be&nbsp; worth it but Jack you told us not to buy picks&nbsp;&nbsp; aren't projections just picks for player props no&nbsp; player projections give a full picture of what the&nbsp;&nbsp;
[02:07] expected output is for a player in a game you&nbsp; then apply that to the market of available prop&nbsp;&nbsp; bets shopping for the best line is still key just&nbsp; like in top down betting one thing I rarely do on&nbsp;&nbsp;
[02:19] this channel is ask you to like And subscribe&nbsp; I feel the content speaks for itself however&nbsp;&nbsp; YouTube's algorithm wants to see those things as&nbsp; confirmation that people want to see more of these&nbsp;&nbsp; types of videos so allow me to make a rare appeal&nbsp; for a thumbs up and a sub it will encourage me to&nbsp;&nbsp;
[02:35] keep putting out videos like this thank you now&nbsp; to many betters player prop bets are attractive&nbsp;&nbsp; because they're a natural extension of DFS daily&nbsp; fantasy sports where you construct a lineup of&nbsp;&nbsp;
[02:47] players and then their individual performance&nbsp; dictates how many points your lineup receives&nbsp;&nbsp; today's betters have become hyperfocused on player&nbsp; performance factoring in everything that could&nbsp;&nbsp;
[02:59] influence a player stats and this is actually one&nbsp; of the reasons player props are so beatable when&nbsp;&nbsp; you're trying to predict who will win a full game&nbsp; there are a lot of factors and variables involved&nbsp;&nbsp;
[03:11] you need to account for all of those things and&nbsp; it's very difficult to master however with player&nbsp;&nbsp; props you're narrowing your focus down to just one&nbsp; player's performance typically just on a single&nbsp;&nbsp;
[03:23] key stat if you're comfortable enough to create&nbsp; your own projections that's great but for a lot&nbsp;&nbsp; of betters that might be beyond their skill level&nbsp; or just too daunting to do for every player in a&nbsp;&nbsp;
[03:35] league this is where the popularity of DFS plays&nbsp; another key role because of DFS there are sites&nbsp;&nbsp; that cater to projecting statistics for players&nbsp; you can use their subject knowledge to help power&nbsp;&nbsp;
[03:47] your betting for instance FanDuel is offering an&nbsp; over under on the number of strikeouts by Tanner&nbsp;&nbsp; Hal against the ray we could use a DFS helper site&nbsp; like numberfire to look up their projection on Hal&nbsp;&nbsp;
[03:59] for this game it's 5.65 seems like the over 5&nbsp; 1/2 might be a play however this is actually&nbsp;&nbsp; the major flaw I warned you about at the top of&nbsp; the video you see a DFS site is going to list&nbsp;&nbsp;
[04:13] an average projection for a player this is called&nbsp; the mean in statistical terms in DFS you get more&nbsp;&nbsp; points the more strikeouts the pitcher accrues&nbsp; so their average is important to you however a&nbsp;&nbsp;
[04:25] sports book only cares about betters going over or&nbsp; under their line they don't care by how much as a&nbsp;&nbsp; result a sports book lists a median projection&nbsp; for the line that's the point where 50% of the&nbsp;&nbsp;
[04:37] results would be over and 50% would be under just&nbsp; hang with me a little longer on this because the&nbsp;&nbsp; payout for your future of betting props is huge if&nbsp; player performance followed a normal distribution&nbsp;&nbsp;
[04:50] the mean and the median would be similar however&nbsp; in something like strikeouts it's not normally&nbsp;&nbsp; distributed you can't go below zero strikeout and&nbsp; the distribution tail to the positive side goes&nbsp;&nbsp;
[05:03] out considerably longer this is called a right&nbsp; skewed or positive skewed distribution the mean&nbsp;&nbsp; or average is going to be higher than the median&nbsp; in props with fewer trials and attempts this is&nbsp;&nbsp;
[05:16] going to be a meaningful difference if you follow&nbsp; these mean projections you would end up betting&nbsp;&nbsp; more overs due to the mean projection being higher&nbsp; than the median sports book line however you'll&nbsp;&nbsp;
[05:29] actually on the wrong side of the bet in terms of&nbsp; probability of it winning when it wins you may win&nbsp;&nbsp; by a bigger margin but you'll win less frequently&nbsp; than if you had used the median but this is why&nbsp;&nbsp;
[05:41] so many people lose betting props don't bet the&nbsp; mean you have to bet the median in order to find&nbsp;&nbsp; the median you need to run the projection through&nbsp; a simulation to produce the full distribution of&nbsp;&nbsp;
[05:55] results for instance at unabated we have player&nbsp; prop simulators built into our prop odd screen by&nbsp;&nbsp; clicking one button I can simulate Tanner Hal's&nbsp; performance 10,000 times and find the edge in&nbsp;&nbsp;
[06:08] this market is actually on the under the median&nbsp; being lower than the mean gives me a 2% Edge&nbsp;&nbsp; against the underline at Sugarhouse Sportsbook in&nbsp; fact we have these simulators for a wide range of&nbsp;&nbsp;
[06:21] player props in MLB NFL college football NBA and&nbsp; even WNBA you bring the projections and will help&nbsp;&nbsp; help you simulate and find Value in the market&nbsp; now speaking of projections that's really the&nbsp;&nbsp;
[06:35] key here you're only as good as the projections&nbsp; garbage in garbage out so to speak there are a lot&nbsp;&nbsp; of projection sources out there on the internet&nbsp; pretty much if you can export them from a website&nbsp;&nbsp; as a CSV file we can import them into our prop odd&nbsp; screen and run simulations for you the process for&nbsp;&nbsp;
[06:53] beating props is nearly as simple as the process&nbsp; we laid out for top- down bedding step one&nbsp;&nbsp; you identify your source of Truth you find a&nbsp; projection set you believe is sharp step two&nbsp;&nbsp;
[07:06] you load that projection set into the prop odd&nbsp; screen and simulate the player performance to&nbsp;&nbsp; identify edges step three you shop for the best&nbsp; price the prop betting Market is less efficient&nbsp;&nbsp;
[07:18] than a major sports side or total Market as&nbsp; a result you may see some eye popping edges&nbsp;&nbsp; on the prop odd screen it's your projections&nbsp; against the market and sometimes the market&nbsp;&nbsp; Market disagrees you still need to respect the&nbsp; market even when it's less than efficient be&nbsp;&nbsp;
[07:36] careful with big edges you find on props back in&nbsp; our video on building a bank roll I talked about&nbsp;&nbsp; Kelly staking and using quarter Kelly due to&nbsp; the uncertainty surrounding your Edge in sports&nbsp;&nbsp; betting I'd advise that when betting props&nbsp; you use a stake size you're comfortable with&nbsp;&nbsp;
[07:53] but Kelly staking might not be the best way to go&nbsp; also Sports books have a habit of not tolerating&nbsp;&nbsp; betters who beat them on props so keep that&nbsp; in mind as well when devising your stake size&nbsp;&nbsp;
[08:05] feasting just on props is not a way to sustain&nbsp; your account but we'll talk more about that in&nbsp;&nbsp; a future video if you're interested in learning&nbsp; more about betting props this way head on over&nbsp;&nbsp; to unabated dot com we have a lower priced tier&nbsp; that is designed just for the prop specialist&nbsp;&nbsp;
[08:22] it includes the prop odd screen the simulators&nbsp; and other tools to help you crush prop markets&nbsp;&nbsp; DFS pick them sites like prize picks and Underdog&nbsp; and even office pools or join me here for another&nbsp;&nbsp;
[08:36] video like this one your journey to becoming&nbsp; a sharper Sports better is going to continue