---
title: 'Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD4_mcRuHe4'
video_id: 'oD4_mcRuHe4'
date: 2026-08-04
duration_sec: 528
---

# Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps

> Source: [Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps](https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD4_mcRuHe4)

## Summary

This video from Unabated's Jack explains how to beat player prop bets by using trustworthy projections and simulations rather than relying on top-down betting. It highlights the common mistake of using mean projections instead of median projections, which leads to betting too many overs. The process involves finding a sharp projection source, simulating player performance to find edges, and shopping for the best lines.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to Beating Player Props** [00:00] — Player prop bets are among the most beatable lines, but most bettors make a major mistake. Jack will show step-by-step how to beat props and avoid that mistake.
- **Jack's Background and Tools** [00:17] — Jack started sports betting over 20 years ago, building his bankroll crushing player props. Today, bettors have more options and tools to spot edges quickly.
- **Top-Down Betting vs. Player Props** [00:50] — Top-down betting works for sides and totals by following sharp money, but player props lack liquidity and sharp action, so a different approach is needed.
- **Use Projections as Source of Truth** [01:39] — For props, find trustworthy projections as your guide. Paying for projections can be worth it. Projections give a full picture of expected output, unlike picks.
- **Rare Appeal for Like and Subscribe** [02:19] — Jack makes a rare appeal for likes and subs to help the YouTube algorithm, but emphasizes content speaks for itself.
- **Why Player Props Are Attractive** [02:35] — Player props are a natural extension of DFS, where individual performance dictates points. Bettors are hyperfocused on player performance, making props beatable.
- **Narrow Focus Makes Props Easier** [03:11] — Predicting a full game involves many variables, but props narrow focus to one player's single key stat, making it easier to master.
- **Using DFS Projection Sites** [03:35] — DFS sites like NumberFire provide player projections. Example: Tanner Hall's strikeout projection is 5.65, suggesting over 5.5 might be a play.
- **The Major Flaw: Mean vs. Median** [04:13] — DFS sites list the mean (average) projection, but sportsbooks set lines based on the median (50% over/under). Using the mean leads to betting too many overs.
- **Skewed Distributions in Player Stats** [04:50] — Stats like strikeouts are right-skewed: can't go below zero, but can go high. Mean is higher than median, especially with few trials. Betting the mean means winning less frequently.
- **Bet the Median, Not the Mean** [05:41] — To find the median, run projections through a simulation to get the full distribution. At Unabated, simulators run 10,000 simulations to find edges.
- **Example: Tanner Hall Simulation** [06:08] — Simulating Tanner Hall's performance 10,000 times shows the edge is on the under, with a 2% edge against Sugarhouse's line. Simulators cover MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA.
- **Garbage In, Garbage Out** [06:35] — The quality of projections is key. Unabated can import projections from CSV files and run simulations.
- **Three Steps to Beat Props** [06:53] — Step 1: Identify your source of truth (sharp projections). Step 2: Load projections into prop odds screen and simulate to find edges. Step 3: Shop for the best price.
- **Market Efficiency and Big Edges** [07:18] — Prop markets are less efficient, so you may see big edges, but respect the market and be careful with large edges.
- **Staking and Sportsbook Limits** [07:36] — Use a stake size you're comfortable with; Kelly staking may not be best. Sportsbooks may limit bettors who beat props, so don't feast solely on props.
- **Unabated's Prop Specialist Tier** [08:05] — Unabated offers a lower-priced tier for prop specialists, including prop odds screen, simulators, and tools for DFS pick'em sites and office pools.

### Conclusion

To beat player props, avoid the common mistake of using mean projections; instead, use median projections derived from simulations. Follow the three-step process: find sharp projections, simulate to find edges, and shop for the best lines. Be mindful of staking and sportsbook limits.

## Transcript

some of the most beatable lines that a  sports book puts out are on player prop   bets however there is one major mistake  that most betters make when betting props   I'll show you step by step how to beat player  props and how to avoid that mistake in this
video hi I'm Jack from unabated when I was first  starting out in sports betting over 20 years ago   I build up my bankroll crushing player prop bets  the lines were probably easier to beat back then  
but we didn't have nearly the variety of bet  options that are available to today's bettors   we also didn't have the tools available that  we do today to spot the edges quickly and to   get the bets down swiftly in a previous video  we explored how beating sports betting doesn't  
have to be about predicting the future it's more  about price and probability that method is known   as top-down betting and if you haven't watched  that video it'll be linked below many of the  
reasons that top-down betting works for game sides  and totals are the same reasons why it's not the   preferred approach for beating player props you  see top- down betting relies on Sharp BS shaping  
the lines at sharper books that will take their  action you then use that as your cue as to what   the line should be their sharp liquidity hammers  the line into shape however player props typically  
don't have massive liquidity in their Market  markets it's a much tougher bet for a Sharp   hook to handle so they don't take as much on these  bets for both the sharp bets and the sharp books  
it's not a priority you can't effectively use top-  down betting on props when it comes to props the   better approach is to find trustworthy projections  as your source of Truth and use them as your guide  
sometimes paying for these projections can be  worth it but Jack you told us not to buy picks   aren't projections just picks for player props no  player projections give a full picture of what the  
expected output is for a player in a game you  then apply that to the market of available prop   bets shopping for the best line is still key just  like in top down betting one thing I rarely do on  
this channel is ask you to like And subscribe  I feel the content speaks for itself however   YouTube's algorithm wants to see those things as  confirmation that people want to see more of these   types of videos so allow me to make a rare appeal  for a thumbs up and a sub it will encourage me to  
keep putting out videos like this thank you now  to many betters player prop bets are attractive   because they're a natural extension of DFS daily  fantasy sports where you construct a lineup of  
players and then their individual performance  dictates how many points your lineup receives   today's betters have become hyperfocused on player  performance factoring in everything that could  
influence a player stats and this is actually one  of the reasons player props are so beatable when   you're trying to predict who will win a full game  there are a lot of factors and variables involved  
you need to account for all of those things and  it's very difficult to master however with player   props you're narrowing your focus down to just one  player's performance typically just on a single  
key stat if you're comfortable enough to create  your own projections that's great but for a lot   of betters that might be beyond their skill level  or just too daunting to do for every player in a  
league this is where the popularity of DFS plays  another key role because of DFS there are sites   that cater to projecting statistics for players  you can use their subject knowledge to help power  
your betting for instance FanDuel is offering an  over under on the number of strikeouts by Tanner   Hal against the ray we could use a DFS helper site  like numberfire to look up their projection on Hal  
for this game it's 5.65 seems like the over 5  1/2 might be a play however this is actually   the major flaw I warned you about at the top of  the video you see a DFS site is going to list  
an average projection for a player this is called  the mean in statistical terms in DFS you get more   points the more strikeouts the pitcher accrues  so their average is important to you however a  
sports book only cares about betters going over or  under their line they don't care by how much as a   result a sports book lists a median projection  for the line that's the point where 50% of the  
results would be over and 50% would be under just  hang with me a little longer on this because the   payout for your future of betting props is huge if  player performance followed a normal distribution  
the mean and the median would be similar however  in something like strikeouts it's not normally   distributed you can't go below zero strikeout and  the distribution tail to the positive side goes  
out considerably longer this is called a right  skewed or positive skewed distribution the mean   or average is going to be higher than the median  in props with fewer trials and attempts this is  
going to be a meaningful difference if you follow  these mean projections you would end up betting   more overs due to the mean projection being higher  than the median sports book line however you'll  
actually on the wrong side of the bet in terms of  probability of it winning when it wins you may win   by a bigger margin but you'll win less frequently  than if you had used the median but this is why  
so many people lose betting props don't bet the  mean you have to bet the median in order to find   the median you need to run the projection through  a simulation to produce the full distribution of  
results for instance at unabated we have player  prop simulators built into our prop odd screen by   clicking one button I can simulate Tanner Hal's  performance 10,000 times and find the edge in  
this market is actually on the under the median  being lower than the mean gives me a 2% Edge   against the underline at Sugarhouse Sportsbook in  fact we have these simulators for a wide range of  
player props in MLB NFL college football NBA and  even WNBA you bring the projections and will help   help you simulate and find Value in the market  now speaking of projections that's really the  
key here you're only as good as the projections  garbage in garbage out so to speak there are a lot   of projection sources out there on the internet  pretty much if you can export them from a website   as a CSV file we can import them into our prop odd  screen and run simulations for you the process for  
beating props is nearly as simple as the process  we laid out for top- down bedding step one   you identify your source of Truth you find a  projection set you believe is sharp step two  
you load that projection set into the prop odd  screen and simulate the player performance to   identify edges step three you shop for the best  price the prop betting Market is less efficient  
than a major sports side or total Market as  a result you may see some eye popping edges   on the prop odd screen it's your projections  against the market and sometimes the market   Market disagrees you still need to respect the  market even when it's less than efficient be  
careful with big edges you find on props back in  our video on building a bank roll I talked about   Kelly staking and using quarter Kelly due to  the uncertainty surrounding your Edge in sports   betting I'd advise that when betting props  you use a stake size you're comfortable with  
but Kelly staking might not be the best way to go  also Sports books have a habit of not tolerating   betters who beat them on props so keep that  in mind as well when devising your stake size  
feasting just on props is not a way to sustain  your account but we'll talk more about that in   a future video if you're interested in learning  more about betting props this way head on over   to unabated dot com we have a lower priced tier  that is designed just for the prop specialist  
it includes the prop odd screen the simulators  and other tools to help you crush prop markets   DFS pick them sites like prize picks and Underdog  and even office pools or join me here for another  
video like this one your journey to becoming  a sharper Sports better is going to continue