---
title: 'How I Find Reversals (Never Guess Again)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=sNKfxl4yHzw'
video_id: 'sNKfxl4yHzw'
date: 2026-08-19
duration_sec: 467
channel: 'TradingLab'
---

# How I Find Reversals (Never Guess Again)

> Source: [How I Find Reversals (Never Guess Again)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=sNKfxl4yHzw)

## Summary

This video presents a four-step formula for identifying market reversal points in cryptocurrency trading, using on-chain data tools and a 200-day EMA. The strategy is based on the principle of contrarian investing, as exemplified by Warren Buffett's quote, and claims to have generated a 18,202% return on Bitcoin over the past decade.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to Reversal Trading** [00:00] — The video opens with a montage and introduces the concept of market reversals, contrasting it with the common pitfall of 'catching a falling knife' by buying too early.
- **The 4-Step Formula and Its Potential** [00:52] — The creator claims that using this formula on Bitcoin over the past 10 years would have yielded a return of 18,202%, turning a $10,000 investment into $1.8 million.
- **Step 1: Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss** [01:21] — The first step involves using a site with real-time crypto data to view the 'Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss' chart. This chart shows green (opportunity) and red (overheat) zones, indicating when most traders are at a loss or profit, respectively.
- **Step 2: Supply in Profit/Loss** [03:31] — The second tool, 'Supply in Profit/Loss', shows the percentage of the current supply in profit. The rule is to buy when 50% or less of traders are in profit and sell when the number approaches 100%.
- **Step 3: The NUPL Chart** [05:16] — The third step uses the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart, which tracks long-term and short-term holders. A buy signal occurs when both the red (long-term) and orange (short-term) lines fall below the zero line.
- **Step 4: 200-Day EMA on the Chart** [06:04] — The final step is to add a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the trading chart. A price touch or dip below this line is considered a good buying opportunity.
- **Backtesting Results and Final Secret Tool** [07:10] — The creator reiterates the backtested return of 18,202% and mentions a 'secret tool' that is the 'backbone' of the strategy, which he offers to newsletter subscribers.

### Conclusion

The video outlines a systematic, data-driven approach to finding market reversals, emphasizing patience and contrarian sentiment. While the strategy is presented as highly profitable, the creator withholds a key component, directing viewers to his newsletter for the full method.

## Transcript

Pour your morning cup of joe. Pack your suitcase.   You order an uber. Head to the airport. Run to the terminal.   Fly to Nebraska. What s in Nebraska? Nothing.  
start your computer. Open your trading chart. And now you are ready to trade.   Now you be asking. Why did we fly to Nebraska? I have no idea. I just wanted to make one of those  
cool traveling montages. The reversal.   One of those topics you always hear  about. But whenever you try it yourself,   It seems you like you always buy to  early and the price continues to drop.  
Leaving you with the classic trading  expression Trying to catch a falling knife .   But what if I told you there was a 4 step formula  to finding the perfect points to enter a trade.   And you can use tools that have real  time data to help you find these points?  
To make my point even clearer. If you used this  same exact data on Bitcoin. In the past 10 years,   you would have made %%%%. I know, its crazy.  
And our strategy follows the one principle  that legendary trader warren buffet said   Be fearful when others are greedy.  Be greedy when others are fearful .   Which this quote is the absolute  pinnacle of the reversal.  
The four step formula goes something like this. First you re going to go on a site   site using real time crypto data. The first step of the 4 step formula   and click unrealized profit/loss . Next, click relative unrealized profit .  
You are going to have these colored zones on your  chart. One on the top and one on the bottom.   This is whats called the opportunity zone. Now this chart is unrealized profits. So the green   box is 0. Which means if price evers come into  this green box. That means the majority of traders  
currently in the market are at a loss. This is  also including miners that are mining bitcoin.   The same idea applies to selling. This red box is called the overheat zone . Where   most traders are at a net profit. And just look how accurate,  
this chart has been over time. Price comes to the green zone. It goes up. Comes   to the red zone goes down. Price comes the green  zone goes up. Goes to the red zone goes down.   It repeats this process multiple times. Its also important to take note that,  
when price is in these zones, its  not here for a long period of time.   So that s the first step. If you want to find a  good some of the best entry points. You want to   Now if you re looking to purchase  bitcoin or any crypto for that matter,  
I would 100% recommend apex omni. They have over 20 pairs available to trade and   are even planning on having 50 in the next month. You can use up to100% leverage with them,   And not only that, but they have  high speed execution times so  
you get in your trades as fast as possible. But the real reason why I love them so much is   because you earn points by simply taking trades. You can use these points, to buy mystery   boxes which include free crypto,  airdrops, an apple vision pro,  
and their grand prize a fn Lamborghini. Yeah, you can literally win a Lamborghini   from a mystery box, simply from  just trading on their exchange.   Plus if you use my specific link in the  description, apex hooked it up and will you a  
5% discount when it comes to trading fees. Check them out, they are seriously one of the   Step 2. This next tool is also one of my favorites.   It s called the supply in profit/loss . Now this tool is kind of like the first one,  
but it s a little more precise when  it comes to describing the data.   If you look closely, when I move my cursor  through this chart. Some numbers will prop up.   It will show the price of bitcoin,  but will also show you how much of  
the current supply is in profit. Now if you know absolutely anything   about trading. You should already  know, this data is an absolute gem.   We can see in real-time, the percentage of the  market that is currently trading for a profit.  
So here, only 41% of traders  were trading for a profit.   Obviously as price goes down, less  traders will be trading for a profit.   So as you can see, as we start reaching all  time highs, more and more traders are trading  
for a profit. And the number even gets  to 100% of traders reaching a profit.   So you can use tool to find great  places to not only enter, but exit.  
My rules for this chart are simple. It s a good idea to look for buy opportunities   when 50% or less of traders are in a profit. Now this wont happen very often, but you should   still know this just incase it does happen. If goes below 50% it s a very good time to buy.  
But where I really think this tool comes  in handy is when it comes to selling.   You want to sell when this number  is getting closer to 100%.   This will give you great insight when  there is fear or greed in the market.  
Or the nupl chart? It kind of sounds like   nipple. I kinda like that better. We ll call it the nipple chart.   The red line is the long term holders. And the orange line is both the long  
term and short term holders. Then again if you look closely. You will see this   horizontal black line which is the zero line. If you see both the orange and red line go  
beneath this zero mark. It s a good time to buy.  This will tell you the majority of long term and   short term traders are trading for a loss. And again just look how accurate this   zero line, price spikes up afterwards. Giving you the perfect reversal point.  
For the fourth and final step we are going  to dive into the actual chart setup.   If you don t yet have it, ill  leave a link in the description.   ema . Click this one right here. Next go to the settings of the  
ema and change the length to 200. Ill also change the color of this line to orange.   reviewed is long term data, we want  to represent the same on our chart.  
If price ever touches or goes beneath this orange  line, that means it s a good buying opportunity   and you should look to enter a trade. Now don t get me wrong. All of this is  
going to happen very rarely. Maybe  once or twice every 2 years.   But just as warrant buffett said, you only need  to a few good trades to become a millionaire.   exact strategy over the past 10 years. You would  have made 18,202%. Which means if you started with  
just a 10,000, you would have made 1.8 million. Let that sink in and that s without any   Now there is one more secret tool I use  to completely tie this strategy together.  
This tool is actually the complete  backbone of this strategy. And will   Now to be honest, I don t want this info  out to the general public. So I m going   to be sending this tool to my newsletter  subscribers. It s completely free if you  
want to sign up. So if you re interested. Ill leave a link in the description.   Thanks for watching and ill see  you guys, next time.