[00:00] As an NFL player, I almost never hear anybody talk about it. When I started testing it, one specific setup was hitting around 85% of the time. But here's what made it interesting. It wasn't a money line. It wasn't a spread. It wasn't an anytime touchdown.
[00:12] It definitely wasn't some disgusting 8-leg combination. It was a player market most people probably stole right past. So I wanted to find out, is this actually a repeatable NFL strategy? Or is that 85% number just another sexy stat that completely falls apart once you actually put money behind it?
[00:27] I tested it, and the answer was way more interesting than I expected. The strategy starts with NFL running backs, and specifically rushing yard markets. But I started looking at these completely different. Instead of asking, will this running back go over under his normal line,
[00:40] I started asking, how high would this running back realistically need to go before I would be surprised? That question led me to alternate overs, and that changed the entire position. So if we focus here on running back alternate totals, there's four steps that we need to look for here.
[00:56] And when I say total, I mean rushing yards. Not attempts, not receiving yards, not receptions, rushing yards. What they mainly are there to do. Let's go through the four steps and then I'm going to show you guys an example of how this
[01:09] actually works in real life. So the first thing we want to look for here is going to be defense that allows 4.5 or more yards per attempt.
[01:21] What that means is every time a running back touches the ball, the average yardage that defense allows is four and a half yards or more. The reason why is we're going to take this into a calculation a little bit later on in this video. I'm going to show you how you can actually
[01:34] calculate literally a running back number and get a projected number just through a math problem. Number two is going to be yards allowed by your defense. Now it would be rushes. Now what you
[01:47] want here is you want a team that is 23rd or worse in yards allowed per game because what we're doing here now is the primary alternate line that we're looking at is rushing yards. So we're going to
[02:00] take the alternate rushing yards and we're going to compare that to the amount of yardage that that defense gives up on average each game. We want a defense that cannot stop the run. Usually step one and step two go hand in hand. If a defense yard per attempt allows 4.5 or more, usually they're
[02:17] in the bottom of the league in total yards per game anyway. So step one and step two go hand in Now step 3 I'm going to show you the exact calculation of how you're going to be able to get an estimated yardage. So for step 3 what you want to do is you want to take the average rushing attempts for the running back that you looking at that made it through obviously step 1 and step two average rushing attempts and then what you going to want to do is you going to want to times that by the yards per attempt allowed
[02:43] Yards per attempt allowed. So for example, let's say the running back that you're looking at from step one and step two that you found has an average 15 carries per game or 15 attempts per game.
[02:55] And let's say the defense you're going against has 4.5. So you times that by 4.5. and you get 67.5 yards, which is your estimation. This is how you get your estimated rushing yards from that running back
[03:10] that you could expect at the highest level. That's like your top number. This is your top number that you're top down at because we got the average yards per attempt and his average carry per game.
[03:23] So this is his max number. Now, this isn't your target number. This is not the number that you're going to want to use. Okay, this is just your reference pretty much to it. This is your ceiling for that running back. Now, step four is being able to identify which yardage target we're going to hit.
[03:38] So, which play makes sense and gives us a probability gap that's positive. So, for an example, we're going to use Christian McCaffrey, CMC. So, we're going to use as an example here. Let's go through step one.
[03:50] He's going against the Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins give up 4.8 yards per attempt. Now they are also 27th in the league for rushing yards allowed per game.
[04:04] So we got a good matchup here for Christian McCaffrey going against a team that gives up 4.8 yards per attempt and is nearly dead last in the league in yards per game allowed as well. Now his average carries are 18.
[04:18] So we're going to take 18 and we're going to times that by 4.8 to get our projected ceiling number, which is going to be 86.4. That's our ceiling number. Now if we go ahead and take his ceiling number into account, which is 85 plus, he's only hit that 25% of the time.
[04:38] Where for this we have an implied probability of 30%, which gives a negative 5% probability gap. So we don't want that, right? We have to keep moving down the ladder until we find that positive gap.
[04:52] So if we go to the next level here and we'll go to 70 plus, he hit that 36% of the time. But we have an implied probability of 38%, which gives us a negative 2% edge.
[05:04] So we've got to keep going. You keep going until you find the biggest gap. Now I going to fast forward here and just show you exactly where the biggest gap is now So as you go through the levels to find the biggest gap for CMC it going to be at 30 plus Now that a big difference right
[05:18] Remember, our ceiling was about 86 yards. This is way under his ceiling. 30 plus yards, we have an actual probability of 89% for him to hit that. And we have an implied probability of 86%, which gives us a plus 3% gap.
[05:36] As you work your way through the levels, you'll see exactly how it works with the probability gap. It's the most important part because you've got to find the one that switches over to positive because you're going to find a bunch of negative ones because the sports books in the NFL,
[05:50] they offer a lot of negative edges. So you've got to be careful to not play those because they're trying to get you and bait you to do something that you shouldn't do. As you work your way through, you end up finding the positive gap,
[06:02] and that's where you end up playing because that's what compounds over time and that's how you're going to see an increase in revenue and an increase in profit now we're going to hop into cal sheets that way i can show you guys exactly how you could find these type of plays and how
[06:15] easy it is when you can actually see what the implied probability is rather than having to calculate it yourself so when you're on calci all you got to do is go over here you can go to sport and go to football go to the nfl and you'll see a list of games so what you want to do the best
[06:28] The best thing with Calchi is honestly they give you the implied probability for everything you're looking at. You don't have to calculate it yourself because sportsbooks give you the odds and you don't know the implied probability so you have to calculate it on your own.
[06:40] As in with Calchi you don't have to do that. They give you the percentages. So let's go ahead and take a look at an example for a game here. Let's look at the Eagles and the Titans. If we scroll down here you'll see player props right here. You'll click on player props and then you have rushing yards here.
[06:53] So as you take a look at the rushing yards you can see that you can adjust it to the levels that I was talking about so let's say Saquon Barkley for example you got 50 plus here which gives an implied probability of 83% and move it up 60 is
[07:07] a 73% these it says 73 cents but that literally could just be converted into a percent that's your implied probability they give you your impact probability here that's why it's so easy to use Cal Sheet and you can go through literally
[07:21] your levels to see exactly where your probability gap is gonna line up at it's really that simple you just have to find the matchup that I just taught you guys within the four steps and then adapt that to using calchi and the implied probability that's it that's really all it takes and then once you go through
[07:36] you're obviously going to be selecting let's say 50 plus you found a probability gap of five percent here or whatnot you click yes and you go up here and you literally put in your trade of how much you want to put on that It that simple when it comes to using Calci Now the difference between Calci and regular sportsbooks is regular sportsbooks won allow you to put in higher wagers when you consistently winning
[08:02] You start getting limited. You start getting banned. And then guess what? You can't use them anymore, or you can only get down $5, $10, or whatnot. As in with Calci, it's peer-to-peer. So you're going against other people. You're not going against a house.
[08:15] So each trade that you make, there's somebody else on the opposite side of that trade. You're just taking their money. And if you follow my channel, you're one of those people that are actually the sharp people that will be taking the fish. We call them the fish. The people that come in here and take stuff that has a low probability of hitting with no probability gap, and we take advantage of that.
[08:33] And the biggest thing you want to pay attention to when it comes to CalSheet and placing trades on CalSheet is the volume. The volume is what needs to be there for you to be able to wager a decent amount of money. As for this game, we still got 20 days to go before this game, and there's already over a million dollars in volume there.
[08:50] So what that means is, example, if you are looking at a side in this game, the amount of money you could get down is unlike what you get in normal sports books. So, let's say, for example, you want to put $200,000 on this game.
[09:02] You could easily do that when there's enough volume in there. And each game that literally I've seen for volume-wise averages between 10 to sometimes like a Monday night game gets up to like 30, 40, 50 million dollars in volume.
[09:16] So you can get as much money as you want down on a lot of these games. As in with the traditional sportsbooks, they will not let you be able to put in that type of amount. So that's another benefit to having Calshi. So if you haven't made an account yet already, make sure you guys click the link in the description.
[09:31] so that way you guys can get a free $25 on me so that way you can start trading, start using it to exploit these rushing props that we just went through in this video. One of the biggest issues you're going to come across trying to find a certain running back prop that I just taught you
[09:46] is the time that it's going to take to be able to go through step by step and find exactly what fits that criteria. Lucky for you, I created the Line Maker AI chatbot where you can literally just type in the exact steps that I just taught you
[09:59] and it'll spit out in seconds the running backs that meet that criteria and also where the probability gap lies. So if you want a trial for this weekend to start with the Line Maker AI chatbot so that way you can see exactly how it works in the NFL,
[10:12] click the link in the description. Because time is the most precious thing, and you don't want to waste hours among hours looking for the matchup so you can get it literally in seconds. As always, guys, I'm Frank from Line Maker Sports. I'll see you guys in the next video.
[10:24] Until then, I'm out.