--- title: 'Stock Market Investing: Why I''m More Defensive Right Now' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=t9eSKKm2R6c' video_id: 't9eSKKm2R6c' date: 2026-08-01 duration_sec: 628 --- # Stock Market Investing: Why I'm More Defensive Right Now > Source: [Stock Market Investing: Why I'm More Defensive Right Now](https://youtube.com/watch?v=t9eSKKm2R6c) ## Summary The creator explains why he is shifting to a more defensive investing approach in the current market. He argues that long-term government money printing will inflate asset prices, but a short-term energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a crash. He outlines three investment strategies and details his choice to stay invested with hedges while building cash to buy the dip. ### Key Points - **The Great Melt-Up Thesis** [00:29] — The creator believes the stock market will keep rising by design due to political greed and corruption, leading to constant government overspending and fiscal deficits. - **Government Debt Crisis** [01:12] — Governments have accumulated more debt than they can ever repay, forcing them to choose between defaulting on their debts or printing trillions of dollars. - **The Likely Choice: Money Printing** [02:03] — He expects the government and Federal Reserve to print money rather than default, allowing politicians and central bankers to keep their jobs while dealing with inflation later. - **Inflation Spreads to Everything** [02:31] — Prices for food, homes, vehicles, stocks, and precious metals will all rise due to inflation, creating an 'everything bubble' that investors must ride to avoid being left behind. - **The Dilemma: Long-Term Up vs Short-Term Crash** [03:10] — While the long-term outlook is bullish, a short-term energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a nasty recession and violent stock market crash. - **Oil Spike Scenario** [05:14] — If oil spikes to $150–200+ per barrel, the stock market could drop without government intervention. However, governments cannot afford a prolonged recession and will likely stimulate immediately. - **Three Investment Options** [06:09] — Option 1: stay invested and do nothing; Option 2: time the market by selling and rebuying lower; Option 3: stay invested and hedge. He dismisses market timing as wishful thinking. - **His Defensive Portfolio** [07:35] — He is primarily invested in the S&P 500, gold stocks, silver stocks, and copper stocks, with oil as a hedge. If oil spikes, he plans to sell it for a gain and buy discounted stocks and metals. - **Building Cash to Buy the Dip** [09:14] — He has sold non-essential positions, accumulating a larger cash reserve than usual, targeting 30% cash to buy assets if the market crashes. ### Conclusion The creator stays invested in the long-term melt-up but adapts defensively by hedging with oil and building cash. He aims to capitalize on a potential market crash rather than succumb to it, emphasizing that long-term investors can also simply weather the storm. ## Transcript you what I'm doing in the stock markets because how I'm investing right now is normally be doing. And this isn't just hypothetical. This is what I'm doing with my actual real money. And I post my trades on Patreon. seeing what I'm doing in real time, I'm going to leave a link for you down below. Okay, with that being said, to begin, I want to give you my broad mean, this is very important for you to understand. It is my belief that we are going through the great melt-up. So, if you've years, then you know, I'm going to tell you I told that the stock market's just going to keep on going up, and it is by design. know that the market's just going to keep on going up? And my explanation was very simple. Anyone and everyone can understand it. understand it. The root problem is political greed and corruption. Like, that's the problem at the source of all of this. corruption, the politicians, they don't care about the fiscal budgets for the governments. And this has been leading to and will continue to lead to constant government overspending and fiscal deficits. And this has caused a debt crisis for the federal governments. So, essentially, the government has accumulated more debts than they can ever pay back. Okay, so I just want you to know that the government is at a fork in the road with two options ahead. So, option A, the government can default on their debts, which means that they just tell everyone that they borrowed money from, you know, sorry, guys, like we can't pay you back. Of course, if they did that, that would cause chaos. Or they can go option B. Option B would be the government printing a ton of trillions of dollars. And by doing so, they can pay back the people that lent them money. Now, it is my belief, which I explained in depth in my previous videos, that the government and Federal Reserve are going to go with option B, printing money. You know, print money, prevent the politicians and central bankers are going to keep their jobs, the stock market's going to go up, and then deal with inflation later, or let the next politician deal with inflation problem. And when they ramp up inflation by prices are going to go up. Value is not going to go up, but prices are going to go up. Okay, so what prices? What prices are And I would say just about everything. I mean, food prices, home prices, vehicle it. Also, stocks, precious metals, financial as well. They're not going to be excluded from inflation. So, in a nutshell, what I'm saying is that they're going to support inflation, and everything's going to go up even more in the long run. So, we are in an everything bubble. So, in my opinion, it's in everyone's best interest to stay invested in the markets and ride the inflation wave up. And if you don't, then you're going to get left behind. But now, there's a dilemma. Okay, why? Why is there a dilemma? Because in the long run, it's obvious, at least to me, that the government cannot repay back its debts. So, they're going to use inflation to monetize the Okay, so what do I mean by monetizing the debts? I'll give you a quick example. So, let's just say that you make $100,000 a year, and you buy your home for whatever price, but you you take a $300,000 mortgage to buy the home. So, let's say over the next few years, inflation gets out of control, the price of a home, you know, on average, goes up by 10x, but your income goes up by 10x, as well, because of inflation. So now, instead of you making $100,000 a year, you make $1 million a year. And now the $300,000 mortgage that you took out for your home, that's going to look very easy for you to pay back, right? So, that makes sense. You're inflating the debt away. So, you're paying off those old debts with basically devalued dollars or inflated dollars. So, it's going to be the same thing with They're using inflation and money printing to their advantage to more pay back old debts. Okay, now going back to the dilemma. the central bankers, and the government, they're they're going to continue printing money, they're going to continue inflating, and we are I mean, we're in everything bubble, and prices are going to continue to go up, right? But in the short run, we are facing a potential energy crisis because of the Strait of Hormuz, and that may throw us into a quick and nasty recession and a violent stock market crash. So, the dilemma is that we know that the market's going to continue going up in the long run. However, in the short run, I mean, we may be in for a nasty dip. And this could be an amazing buying opportunity if the market does crash and it gives us that opportunity. So, listen, this is how I'm interpreting the situation. the situation. If oil spikes to 150, 180, maybe even 200 or more a barrel, then in my opinion, it's going to cause stock market to drop if there's no government intervention. However, like if you saw my previous video, as I told you, our governments cannot afford a recession or at least a prolonged one. intervention, there will be stimulus, and I don't expect the government and around. So, in other words, they're going to be on top of this so quickly at just a threat of recession and they're going to be ready to stimulate. And it's my belief that this is going to lead to a V-shape recovery in the stock lead to a V-shape recovery in the stock market if it does if it does crash. With that being said, given that's my interpretation of the situation, what are my options here? So, I'd say that I have three options. So, the first thing is to just stay invested and do nothing. The thinking is that long-term the market's going to just go up, right? cares what's going to happen in the short run, right? You know, if the market crashes, just take the hit and just weather the storm because right? Okay, option number two is that it's basically like trying to time the market. You sell your stocks now, you hope for a stock market crash, and you hope to rebuy in at a lower price. So, the plan is like if you're going to go this route, the plan is that you're going to try to time the market perfectly, sell at a good time, rebuy at And I'll just tell you most likely it's not going to go according to plan. You know, personally, I am not even thinking about taking this route. I believe that timing the market is just wishful thinking. But, you know what? I discourage you. Like, if you want if you think you can and you're willing to give perfectly and come out ahead, you know, be my guest. Like, don't let me stop you. Okay, so the third option is that Okay, so the third option is that you can stay invested and hedge, hedge So, I am personally choosing to go this route. Like, I am choosing to stay invested but hedge my portfolio to play defensively. the Strait of Hormuz, like I truly believe that what I'm doing is the most responsible approach. You know, it's not guaranteed that oil prices are going to but I'll tell you that it's not far-fetched at all, in my opinion, given the circumstances. So, I am staying invested primarily in the S&P 500, in gold stocks, in silver stocks, and copper stocks. But, as you know, if you watch my previous videos, I've invested in oil as a hedge. Now, I just want to say that my plan is very simple. If the price of oil spikes and crashes then I'm just going to sell my oil for a big gain, and then use that money to buy stocks and precious metals and assets that have So, you just buy low and sell high, right? Now, normally, I wouldn't do this with my portfolio. I normally don't carry a big hedge, but I'm truly concerned about the Strait of Hormuz right now. Like, Now, another thing that I'm doing differently is that I am accumulating a Normally, I would have the vast majority of my money invested, about 90 to 100% of my portfolio invested, because of the great melt-up. Like, I don't want to lose to inflation, right? term, we are facing some unique circumstances where having a larger than normal cash position is, you know, completely understandable, at least to me. But, of course, the purpose of having a larger cash position right now would be to buy the dip if that opportunity presents itself. So, I've sold some non-essential positions for a gain. I've not covered calls. cash at the moment. And I got Of course, I have the hedges to produce cash if the market takes a turn for the worse. So, right now, I'm basically preparing for a bad scenario. So, I'm not at 30% cash yet, but you know, ideally that's where I'm trying to head to. And I just want clarify. So, going back to this in terms of our options, I don't think it would be bad to just do nothing and weather the storm if you're a long-term investor. Like I I think that's perfectly fine. Like personally, I just want to be able to capitalize on the buying opportunity if it does happen in the upcoming months ahead. this route of staying invested with hedges. Now, I just want to say that if you enjoy this investing content, please check out our investing community over for you down below. You can get your questions answered. You can join our chat room. We also have exclusive investing content, which I think you're So, thank you so much, and I wish you a very nice day. Take care.