[00:02] horrific. You have red charts everywhere. Uh, sentiments in the everyone's talking about anything but crypto at the moment. They're talking gold, they're talking about AI and Cloudbot and all kinds of crazy stuff.
[00:16] But it's moments like this when people often misread exactly what's happening. Every single time that crypto is in its optimal zone to buy is usually the moment most people don't want to buy it. They usually they want to buy it when
[00:29] to buy it when, you know, sentiment's in the gutter. And right now, when you zoom out and you look at the big picture, this sell-off doesn't look like it's the this sell-off doesn't look like it's the end for Bitcoin and crypto, etc., it
[00:41] different. So, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture of what's actually happening right now. You have underlying liquidity conditions improving and a lot of positive catalysts on the horizon, especially for
[00:53] crypto. But you also have everyone scared out of their minds. you have a have two opposite things happening at once. You have people, you know, out in the market buying different growth uh again like I mentioned certain stocks in
[01:06] AI and you have people buying protection like gold uh and then gold uh beta plays like silver, copper, etc. And this is kind of an odd setup because normally the market has like one mood, right? you have like a happy mood where like stocks
[01:20] or you have a sad mood where you know everything's down and you know maybe like bonds and gold etc. But right now the market has basically a split personality. You have again certain sectors of the market really doing well.
[01:35] skyrocketing but at the same time you got like you know bonds not do you know long-term bonds not doing well. Uh so so it's kind of like this weird concoction mixture uh of of all these things that you know maybe don't really fit together
[01:48] or don't at least traditionally fit together. And right now gold going up is basically people's lack of trust in the system. It's it's people's lack of trust in the bond market. It's people's lack of trust in fiat currencies. It's
[02:00] people's lack of trust in governments and politics and you know global conflicts etc. There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world and that's an environment that typically gold thrives in. In a world full of uncertainty and
[02:13] going to play out, especially with AI and just all this craziness, they want that they can like physical. They they want something real. And for for them, that's gold. And so you have a lot of people buying gold. And when gold goes
[02:28] this, you know, chain reaction of events where it's like, oh, gold went up, you know, uh what's the silver to gold's gold? That's [laughter] that's silver. buying silver and they're buying copper and they're like, "Look, it's metals
[02:42] narrative around it. So you have, you know, metals skyrocketing. And now kind you know, the the war going on at the Fed. Okay. Trump wants the Fed to cut. said, "Hey, we're not going to we're not going to do that. We're scared of
[02:57] tariffs." Uh Trump's like, "Hey, you know, tariffs have led to literally no Why are you not cutting? Uh we need this." And you know, you got this back and forth, back and forth. And and you know, Trump's kind of using every lever
[03:10] like, "Hey, can I throw these guys out of office? Can I fire these guys? Like, the job these guys are doing? I want to the right job that that I think they should be doing." And this leads to kind
[03:22] of like this um issue in the confidence of the Fed because there's sort of this illusion. It's kind of a stupid illusion to be honest because it's not real of of Fed independence, okay? that the Fed is this independent pristine organization
[03:36] know maybe some in some cases I actually kind of think drone pal in some ways does kind of represent that like he kind of just does what he thinks is right he thinks is right isn't always right and he's been wrong on quite a few
[03:50] there's kind of this illusion that the Fed's independent okay uh again not know historically he's like hey we need some help uh the Fed typically just kind yeah I I don't know I I I don't think this Fed's this pristine, you know,
[04:04] stupid. But, you know, the markets aren't even reacting to that. They're think everyone else is going to think that way. The point is they're worried. comes in here with the hammer, kind of breaks up the Fed, uh, that, you know,
[04:17] you're going to have this huge loss of confidence in, you know, the government, And, uh, it's going to cause this kind of like economic uncertainty. And so, the other things accelerating, uh, this move into gold and metals, etc. And
[04:32] accelerating. Uh [laughter] it's accelerating a massive decline in dollar a second, if you've watched some my content in the past, dollar strength going down is insanely bullish for risk on assets. When dollar strength drops,
[04:48] example, look right here. This was September 2025. Uh and you can saw dollar strength from September 2025 went up till about November 2025. And if you remember what happened between September and November of 2025, it was the most
[05:04] brutal crypto market action ever. Okay? Uh you know, it was horrific for Bitcoin and crypto, etc. Um and that that coincided with a massive move in dollar strength going up. Okay? So that's not good. That's be that's bearish, you
[05:19] know, for liquidity and risk on. But bullish is uh dollar strength going down and it just fell off an absolute cliff. I a little bit because of this, a little Japan and you know talks of a bailout and all kinds of stuff. Uh but you know
[05:32] net net what's really good about this is this is actually really good for risk on thing. And even just kind of zooming out historically you can see right here in uh 2017 during the bull market dollar strength fell off a cliff. You can see
[05:44] market dollar strength fell off a cliff. Dollar strength going down is a good might not seem like much to you but this is this is dollar strength falling off a cliff. This is this is actually a pretty insane short-term move uh in dollar
[05:58] not the only one that's noticed that dollar strength has fallen off a cliff. You've got the Quebees letter talking about it where they say breaking the US dollar index extends losses to minus
[06:10] 1.5% this month. Now at its lowest level since September 18th after posting its worst year since 2017, the dollar is off to another bad start. This marks uh the market's message is consistent. Own assets or be left behind. And he's
[06:24] the when dollar strength drops, asset prices go up, which is exactly what I've things throwing uncertainty into the waters, especially when it comes to One, tariffs are back. The other massive component of what's causing this um
[06:40] sell-off is the risk of another government shutdown. Now, this was a ago. The odds didn't look high. It was sitting at like 27% chance, 30% chance. We were looking good until all of a sudden, like a couple days ago, the odds
[06:54] sudden, like a couple days ago, the odds shot up from 9% all the way to a 70 or 80%. Right now, 79% chance. That is not good. Uh, you know, we do not want to guys remember last time we had a government shutdown, uh, it was
[07:07] record-breaking. It was like the longest government shutdown in history. And it was really, really bad for liquidity. Why is it really bad for liquidity? Because the uh, governments pay people. Governments spend money. That is
[07:19] when that liquidity stops going into the economy, when the government shuts down and that stops going in, um, you have a huge liquidity retraction. Now, the last going for it that just made it especially horrific. One, it was the
[07:33] longest government shutdown in history. So, massive, massive, you know, pause period. Two, it was right after this massive TGA rebuild. So, we had this crazy TJ rebuild that was already a liquidity retraction event. Uh and then
[07:45] that bled over into this government shutdown uh which just made it worse. there. You had all these things going on that made it just extra horrific. So the the good news is this time we don't have we we have great liquidity. Like
[07:58] it was at the end of last year. Um and so it it's not quite as dangerous of a situation. Uh but it still could be dangerous depending on how long it lasts and it's still obviously not good. It causes more uncertainty. um people kind
[08:11] of have a little bit of um a fear uh like uh recent recency bias because we just had a government shutdown that was really horrific. So, you know, that fear and and and hit to sentiment can cause things to get worse. And so, overall,
[08:23] that's actually not a good thing in the short term. So, in order for crypto to going, you you need a couple things to happen. Um, one you you either need the economy to turn like in periods of when the economy is running hot, ISM's
[08:37] clicking up, things are doing good. That is when Bitcoin runs and it runs hard. know, Bitcoin stuck in the middle. Okay. We got this weird kind of freaky, you good. There's all this fear in the markets. You have gold and and some
[08:50] doesn't like that. He either wants the market to just be like crushing it. It's and craziness. And, you know, uh, Bitcoin just eats that for lunch, right? like cruising all, you know, up to
[09:04] parabolic run-ups, all that kind of stuff. The second thing that Bitcoin kind of weaves in and out of is like a hedge. Bitcoin sometimes acts as a hedge against government debasement. All this stuff we're talking about, all this
[09:17] actually is a bullish thing for Bitcoin in some time periods. Uh, and you know don't like it to act that way sometimes and not act that way other times. But you know, Bitcoin is a little bit more complex than that. Um, one of the things
[09:31] right now that's limiting Bitcoin's ability to act as like a a hedge is a already in this decline due to liquidity. Uh, Bitcoin loves liquidity that. It was already in a decline due to liquidity going into the end of the
[09:45] day event, etc. So, people kind of were already a little bit fearful of Bitcoin. Um, which which didn't help it in in this kind of debasement hedge. Two, you which even if people were like, "Oh, yeah, we're going to buy this as it's
[09:58] just, you know, price wasn't moving anywhere. And three, you just have this don't even know how many months we're going on now of Bitcoin just with negative price action. That really nukes sentiment. And it's just hard for, you
[10:12] momentum, right? it. You know, right now with metals or whatever, I could I could my gosh, did you guys know?" Uh there's one metal that hasn't gone up and uh you whatever and everyone be like, "Oh my gosh, what's the metal?" And they want
[10:26] Because metals are going up right now. You know, there's like a positive third alltime highs. I want to buy anything. I want to talk about it. I That's how people act. They don't want
[10:38] to talk about and think about and do things with stuff that isn't doing good. their brains work. But this is also what happens at the end of every single, you know, crypto bare market, okay? Sentiment's in the gutter. Uh, you know,
[10:51] every bad news event causes to crash further. Then you have like an FTX level crash. Uh, which, you know, you could call that our October 10th crash or whatever. And and then but price just takes time, but it eventually rebuilts.
[11:03] consolidates and then it, you know, slowly goes up from there. As this tweet points out, uh, feeling pretty stupid holding Bitcoin right now. probably a so true. Like at the times when you feel stupidest holding it, stupidest buying
[11:17] it, usually that's like the best time to buy. Usually that's the best time to get in. It's it's usually not the best time to get in when everything's at alltime And I also want to highlight something I highlighted a couple videos ago. Uh and
[11:29] that's uh said well here in this post by Jel. I never want to hear anybody talk cap for steep moves like this. You're looking at the you're looking at the chart with a $35 trillion market cap.
[11:42] Basically highlighting that if Bitcoin with a $35 trillion or if gold with $35 this, then Bitcoin with a, you know, a couple trillion market cap can definitely move up like this. And with silver, uh, Bitcoin used to be bigger
[11:55] just one month, silver added more market cap than Bitcoin has in total. Silver went from 3.9 trillion at the end of December to 5.8 trillion today. A 1.9 trillion move. Bitcoin's entire market cap is 1.8 trillion. If the scale of
[12:09] repricing is possible in legacy, particularly industrial metal, it's certainly possible in a smaller fully monetary global liquid globally liquid of gets to the heart of of kind of what I'm drilling at is that these moves in
[12:23] in metals are foreshadowing of what Bitcoin could do next, especially going into the end of 2026. And I've seen a lot of posts about uh gold and silver being correlated with Bitcoin. And I was really curious about this. So I went and
[12:37] true or not. And what I found was that gold and silver are not correlated with Bitcoin in the sense that you know um when Bitcoin moves that doesn't necessarily mean anything will happen with gold or silver. When gold or silver
[12:51] anything will happen with Bitcoin. They're not like connected in any way. moves there's a bunch of companies that are likely to move following that. Or in moves typically you see like Ethereum, Salana, etc. move. Those things are
[13:06] correlated. Or when you see gold move, typically you see silver, you know, and things are correlated. Uh Bitcoin and gold are not correlated in that same gold are not correlated in that same way. But there is a real lead lag
[13:19] effect. So even though they're not correlated, there is a real lead lag effect. And it typically goes like this. Almost always gold and silver move before Bitcoin ends up moving and that's because typically when you have macro
[13:32] stress hit money goes where it feels safe and that's typically places like gold and silver etc. So gold and silver do act as sort of a signal or a precursor or a foreshadowing of what Bitcoin might do next, but only in the
[13:46] right conditions. Not always, only in the right conditions. But if that's true in this in this circumstance, if that's true, that means the move ahead for Bitcoin is going to be absolutely unhinged. And like I said, typically
[13:59] when you have a macro scarce, uncertainty, you know, those are the kind of environments where gold and silver shine. But if that rolls over into, and this is kind of the key um circumstance where where Bitcoin shines,
[14:11] if that rolls over into a hot economy, if that rolls into abundant liquidity, reputation. That is where Bitcoin catches fire and typically does silver did previously. And I like how this tweet lays it out where it says,
[14:26] "The most bullish things for Bitcoin happened in the last uh year. Two four-year cycle, the illusion is over. An omega cycle is in the cards. Bitcoin is too big to see a 10x. Gold saw almost 2x. Silver 3.4x. Now we just wait
[14:40] believe that this year is going to be an the deck is stacked. The incentives are aligned. And I think that's where we're headed in 2026. And that is the perfect absolute perfect uh ideal conditions for
[14:54] Bitcoin to shine. And when Bitcoin goes up again, altcoins, Ethereum, etc., they're correlated with Bitcoin. And so, uh, and and they need like extra frothy conditions. And so, Bitcoin going up, alts and and everything else typically
[15:08] frothy conditions, when you see the ISM peaking up above 50, etc., that's when you get an alt season and crypto goes absolutely haywire into a bull run. And I think we're going to see that in 2026. I think there's other reasons to believe
[15:21] that, too. I I should probably talk in a future video about AI and you know software getting just absolutely pummeled uh by AI and what all this means because I think all this plays into the ultimate case for a insane
[15:34] absolutely insane crypto bull run uh of the likes we've never seen. Not like not another 2021. I disagree. I think it's very much possible that the next crypto we'll have more liquidity as I've said many times. I don't think that's in the
[15:49] cards. Uh 2021's liquidity was pretty insane. Uh but I do think crypto things shine where we'll see just an abundant amount of liquidity pouring into crypto from these ETFs, institutional buildout, etc. I I really
[16:03] think it is just primed like that the entire ecosystem is primed for an insane move up. We're waiting for that spark. We're waiting for you know that spark to come. uh Bitcoin is typically the the lead is typically the the one that kind
[16:15] of is the the forerunner and the forerunner of Bitcoin is gold and sometimes venture out there and Bitcoin does nothing. But if it's followed by an economic super cycle, if it's followed by the ISM peaking and above that 50
[16:28] that's that's exactly where I think we're heading for 2026. I'm still all in. I still haven't sold. I might be crazy. I might be stupid, but I'm either about to be crazy and poor or I'm about to be crazy and just living the life.
[16:42] see how this plays out. And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio sell various tokens, as well as different weekly video market updates. closed to new members, but you can sign up for the wait list in the description
[16:56] was investment advice. None of this was me telling you to do anything with your adviser, and you should always do your own research. If this video is helpful, this, make sure to hit that subscribe button and the little bell next to it to
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