---
title: 'How I Made $170 Risk-Free Betting on the World Cup 2022 (Using Arbitrage Betting)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=dD39EtnkP6k'
video_id: 'dD39EtnkP6k'
date: 2026-08-12
duration_sec: 360
---

# How I Made $170 Risk-Free Betting on the World Cup 2022 (Using Arbitrage Betting)

> Source: [How I Made $170 Risk-Free Betting on the World Cup 2022 (Using Arbitrage Betting)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=dD39EtnkP6k)

## Summary

The video explains how the creator made a risk-free profit of $170 by betting on the FIFA World Cup 2022 using a combination of a promotional offer and a hedge bet. The strategy leverages positive expected value (EV) betting and arbitrage principles, with a detailed walkthrough of the calculations and reasoning.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to the Strategy** [00:03] — The creator made $170 with two bets on the World Cup: one positive EV bet on a promotional offer and one hedge bet to remove risk. He recommends watching videos on arbitrage and positive EV betting for background.
- **The Promotional Offer** [00:46] — An Australian bookmaker offered a 100-to-1 promotion on any team to win the World Cup, capped at a $10 stake. This is a very good opportunity, so the creator maxed out the bet.
- **Choosing the Team** [01:28] — Instead of following expert tips, the creator used Betfair Exchange to find fair odds. Brazil had the highest probability (19%) based on the midpoint of back and lay odds (5.25).
- **Positive EV Calculation** [02:23] — Betting $10 on Brazil at 100-to-1 gives an expected value of $181.90 (0.19 * 1000 + 0.81 * -10). This is highly positive EV, but other teams like Portugal have lower EV, and Australia would be negative EV.
- **Hedging on Betfair** [03:08] — To remove risk, the creator placed a lay bet on Brazil at 5.3 odds with a liability of $817. This means acting as the bookmaker, paying out if Brazil wins, but keeping the stake if they don't.
- **Betfair Commission** [03:36] — Betfair charges a 5% commission on winnings, reducing the net profit from the lay bet. Instead of $190, the creator keeps $180.50.
- **Outcome Analysis** [04:05] — If Brazil wins, net profit is $183 (1000 - 817). If Brazil loses, net profit is $170.50 (180.50 - 10). This guarantees at least $170.50 profit regardless of the outcome.
- **EV of Hedged Bet** [04:45] — The hedged bet has an EV of $172.88, slightly lower than the unhedged bet due to commission and spread crossing. The creator dislikes hedging because it reduces EV.
- **Creator's Confession** [05:13] — The creator admits he did not actually place the hedge bet, so the video is not truly risk-free. He is riding the risk, hoping Brazil wins to make $1000.

### Conclusion

The video demonstrates a practical application of positive EV and arbitrage betting, but the creator's confession reveals that the 'risk-free' claim was exaggerated. The core principles are valuable for long-term sports betting profitability.

## Transcript

with just two beds on the FIFA World Cup 2022. how I did this was with Arbitrage betting one was a positive EV bet on a promotional offer and the other was a hedge bet to remove my risk to understand how it works I highly
recommend you watch these videos on armchart and positive EV betting to familiarize yourself with these Concepts while this bed is specific to the World Cup only the principles of positive EV Arbitrage and hedging are very important
if you want to be a profitable long-term Sports bidder and this is a great way to learn and fully understand the concepts so let's get into it this opportunity came through a special promotion offered by one of the new bookies or Sports
books in Australia that are the bookie landscape is very competitive in world because there's just so many degenerate gamblers donating money to The Bookies and every single bookie wants a piece of the pie so beta wanted
to attract customers and they did this by offering a 100 to one promotion on any team to win the World Cup 2022. now this is clearly a very good opportunity and that is obviously why they capped the stake at ten dollars meaning you can
only bet a maximum of ten dollars on this promotion so obviously we will want to max out and bet the full ten dollars so which team do I actually bet on France Argentina Germany Brazil or some other team like Australia instead of
looking online and following expert tips or blogs about World Cup predictions I chose instead to look at Betfair exchange which is a betting Market where people can send in orders to back or lay which means to bet against any team this
therefore gives me the fair odds and therefore the fair probabilities on How likely each team is going to win the World Cup we can see that Brazil is the favorite and has the highest probability of winning which can be calculated by
one over the midpoint of the best back and best late odds which is 5 5.2 and and best late odds which is 5 5.2 and 5.3 so 5.25 and that gives us a 19 probability the reason why the Betfair odds are the most reflective of the true
odds for each team to win is because it is a market and reflects wisdom of the crowd which I explained in a previous video so now that we know Brazil is most likely to win we're going to bet our 10 on Brazil this gives us a 19 chance of
getting one thousand and ten dollars back which means one thousand profit and an 81 chance of just losing our initial ten dollars so our expected value is ten dollars so our expected value is 0.19 times 1000 plus 0.81 times negative
10. and that gives us 181.90 which is very positive EV and this represents how much this bet is worth if we bet on any other team for example Portugal it would be significantly less and if we bet on some
team like Australia it would actually be negative EV now this is not risk-free as we can see we have a high chance and saw 81 chance actually of losing but what we can do to solve this is to place a hedge bet on Betfair which is betting against
Brazil to win we can lay that for an amount of 190 at 5.3 odds with a amount of 190 at 5.3 odds with a liability of 817 this means we're essentially being the bookmaker taking on another punters bet on Brazil to win
on another punters bet on Brazil to win at 5.3 odds they're betting 190 dollars so if Brazil wins then we have to pay out their stake back and the profit of 817 to them but if Brazil doesn't win then we just keep their 190 dollars
however there is a fee involved with using Betfair exchange which is why I don't really like hedge bets because if we use Betfair and we win our bet then we have to pay a five percent commission on our winnings so instead of 190
dollars we only actually get to keep 180.50 so now let's sum up the results of each possible outcome in the case that Brazil wins the World Cup we we get one thousand dollars profit from BET R but we have to pay 817 giving us a net
profit of one hundred and eighty three dollars if Brazil doesn't win whether they don't even make it out of the group stage we lose out ten dollars from beta but we get one hundred and eighty dollars and fifty cents from Betfair
after the commission meaning we make one hundred and seventy dollars and fifty cents net profit this means no matter what the outcome is we will have made at least one hundred and seventy dollars and fifty cents and our risk has been
entirely hedged away the expected value for this now is 0.19 times 183 plus 0.81 for this now is 0.19 times 183 plus 0.81 times 170.5 which is equal to
172.88 this is slightly less than the EV of the unhed BET and that is actually because the Hedge bet is actually slightly negative EV because one you are paying the commission to Betfair and secondly you have to cross the spread to
provide respect instead of getting the fair odds of 5.25 you have to offer 5.3 odds to another punto this is why I don't actually like hedging and I actually believe in the long run I can expect my risk to be Diversified away if
I bet thousands and thousands of times and I don't actually need to use Betfair so I have to admit I actually lied in this video and it's not risk-free for me because I didn't end up placing the Hedge bet on Betfair so I'm just riding
out the risk and hoping that Brazil wins the World Cup so I can make 1 000 instead I'm going to grab some popcorn and turn on the TV and hope this video ages well and that you guys aren't laughing at me after the World Cup is
useful in helping you understand Arbitrage betting positive EV betting and hedging and if you want to learn more you can join my free Discord in the link in the description below or sign up to my sports betting course which covers
all the strategies that I use to make over fifty thousand dollars in profit and Counting take care and see you guys in the next video