---
title: 'The Market CRASH & Earnings'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=kL6x3Rs_1pM'
video_id: 'kL6x3Rs_1pM'
date: 2026-10-22
duration_sec: 3495
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# The Market CRASH & Earnings

> Source: [The Market CRASH & Earnings](https://youtube.com/watch?v=kL6x3Rs_1pM)

## Summary

The video is a live market commentary session hosted by Kevin, focusing on a significant market sell-off driven by AI-related capital expenditure concerns, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and the upcoming Anthropic IPO. Kevin discusses the 'great suckening'—the massive capital raises by AI companies that are draining liquidity from the market—and provides his buy-the-dip strategy for the NASDAQ in the 700-707 range.

### Key Points

- **Opening with GameStop Short Squeeze Commentary** [00:00] — Kevin opens with a rant about Wall Street's shorting of GameStop (140% short) and celebrates individual investors winning the same game Wall Street plays.
- **Market 'Sale' Overview** [02:06] — Kevin humorously lists stocks on sale: memory, Neoclouds, Tesla (down 9%), SpaceX, Lumentum (down to $753 from $1143), while noting Lone Depot is up 8%.
- **NASDAQ Buy Zone Identified** [04:19] — Kevin states NASDAQ is in buy-the-dip territory between 700 and 707, the exact range he predicted in the Alpha report, noting this was the peak fear zone in September.
- **Bond Yields Tumble** [05:21] — Bond market down 18 basis points; Kevin highlights his peak call on yields at 5.27% looking correct, with Brent at $113 and gold falling.
- **Michael's Market Analysis** [06:00] — Michael notes an exaggerated mechanical rotation, VIX pushing 20, and a vote of no confidence in open-ended AI capex, but S&P 500 holding its trend since July lows.
- **Iran-Geopolitical Tensions** [07:18] — CENTCOM says naval blockade halted seaborne trade with Iran for 100 days; Iran claims seven oil tankers struck in Strait of Hormuz, largest single-day toll since war began.
- **Anthropic IPO Anticipation** [10:19] — Anthropic expected to file for IPO in coming days; Star Capital's $75M investment now worth $7B, Sound Ventures' $35M at $5B valuation, Sequoia's first check at start of year.
- **Western Digital Beats** [13:02] — Western Digital beats with $4.38B revenue vs $4.15B expected, adjusted EPS $4.64 vs $4.10, and Q2 revenue guidance of $5-$5.2B.
- **Bloom Energy Beats** [17:08] — Bloom Energy beats with $0.94 EPS vs $0.68 expected, revenue $1.24B vs $1.08B, EBITDA $299M vs $241M, but stock falls due to sequential margin compression.
- **The 'Zuck Suck' and Negative Cash Flow** [23:30] — Meta hits negative free cash flow, Kevin calls it the 'Zuck Suck'; highlights hidden lease obligations on top of CapEx that will increase future spending.
- **The Great Suckening Explained** [29:13] — Kevin explains the 'great suckening': AI companies raising massive capital (Broadcom, Oracle, SpaceX $40B, Meta stock split) drains liquidity, causing stocks to fall even on good earnings.
- **Forward PE Collapse** [33:46] — Forward PE ratios collapsing while forward earnings rise, creating a bizarre wedge; Kevin cites a Yardeni chart showing this divergence.
- **Anthropic IPO Timing Prediction** [36:37] — Kevin predicts Anthropic will IPO between midterms and Christmas to capture year-over-year growth before lapping Q1 2026's big growth, and to raise funds for $518B compute commitments.
- **Long-Term Bullish Outlook** [40:12] — Kevin predicts rates back to zero by 2032-2033, real estate skyrocketing, oil back to $40, and AI-driven deflation, requiring money printing and stimulus.
- **AI CapEx Driving S&P 500 Growth** [45:16] — AI CapEx contributes 15% of S&P 500 sales growth this year, expected 24% next year; NVIDIA receives $690B from these expenditures, making it 'dirt cheap' at 0.58 PEG.
- **Power and ASIC Boom** [46:48] — GE Vernova gas turbines sold out through 2029 at $3,000/kW; ASIC market (Trainium, TPU) expected to boom in 2027-2028, with Marvell and Broadcom as partners.
- **Trade Ideas: LDI, Rocket Mortgage, Lenar** [48:07] — Kevin mentions LDI as a rate-sensitive bankruptcy-risk play at $57, expecting a reverse split and potential rise to $2-3 if yields fall; also mentions Rocket Mortgage and Lenar (Berkshire Hathaway scooping up).
- **Apple as Anti-Suck** [51:24] — Kevin bought Apple at $315, believing the iPhone Duo will sell out; Apple doesn't need to fundraise, making it the 'anti-AI suck'.
- **Bloom Energy Cash Flow Concerns** [53:03] — Bloom's operating cash flow turned negative; Kevin analyzes cash flow statement showing -$180M in plant/property/equipment, but deposit growth up 50%.

## Transcript

Oh man, you're more Kevin, you're a lot less funny. Oh, that's what it is. I am with you. Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip, here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip, here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip, here we go, come on, push it.
Oh my god, what a fascinating... First of all, all this money by Wall Street is making me sick. A hundred forty percent of GameStop was short. GameStop was short. You can't allow a wall to be distorted. Every five percent of the stock, one thing, one thing, sticks to the curb.
Thousands of stocks stick to the curb. Then when the individuals make money, everyone sells for more. If they have a two, go to hell. If they have a 50,000, go to hell. After decades of distortion, you haven't discussed the fact that individual investors are playing the same game that you're playing and now you're losing.
Here we go.
There's a lot of power in this organization from life. And so many people can get together in a subreddit. It's really funny. We've got 2,000 dogs going up. We've got the market over. 28,000 people live in a discourse who are getting profit and other things.
And it goes through.
Oh, man! Welcome on back to another beautiful, beautiful sale day.
Who didn't ask for a coupon code on all of our favorites? I mean, just look at what's cooking out there. We got a coupon code on memory.
Can I interest you in memory? We got a sale on memory. Can I interest you in Neoclouds? We got a sale on Neoclouds. Can I interest you in Lone Depot?
Oh, nope, nope. That has had a sale, but not today. No sale today. Today, Lone Depot is actually going up. Can I interest you in a sale on Tesla? Or how about a sale on SpaceX?
Now, down 9%. What about Lumenta? This, we need, we need the optical connections, boys and girls It's now down at $753
At the $200 DMA All the way down from $1143 Can I interest you in some housing? Oh, just kidding Lenore's actually up 8%
Oh, darn Well, anyway, there's a sale all over the frickin' place And we do have earnings coming up today. We have Bloom Energy, which is down 9%.
Holy moly. Bloom Energy down at $215. This is how people get liquidated, folks. Bloom Energy down at $216. We've got earnings coming up after the bell on Bloom.
Let's see our other earnings catalysts coming up today. Okay, so after the market closes, we have Bloom. We have, let's see, Bloom 405.
That's nice. Okay, we'll go ahead and pull that up. Then we're going to have earnings on, let's see here. Somebody's not going to care about it. How about Western Digital? Yeah, we'll do that one as well. So we'll look at Western Digital.
We'll look at Bloom Energy. Both of them will give us a little bit of color into, frankly, some of the drama on the artificial intelligence trade.
It's 12.52. We've got about eight minutes to go before the market closes. NASDAQ is in buy-to-dip territory between 700 and 707. This is the exact range, mind you, that we said in the alpha report was the buy range.
We made it clear that not until we get in this range is it buy range time. And here we are. Actually, 700 stand here. This is the little in-betweener line we have there at 702.87.
But anyway, this is the buy zone right here. In this 700 to 707, this is where we had peak fear in September. And then we had a massive rally. Now, it looks like we are returning to the depths of the fear.
juicy juicy sales all right let's go ahead and take a look at some of the stats so the first thing that we'll notice is we have the bond market down about 18 basis points I was tweeting about
this earlier you can always follow me on x at real neat kevin the video is online bam boys and girls down we were down 20 basis points when I tweeted it but still I was like holy freaking
And, moly, that is a tumble. Looks like me, Kevin, peak call on yields at 527 is looking pretty damn sexy right now. However, Brent is at 113, which is not ideal.
And, look, gold goes down even more. It's going to be in the 3,000s soon. It's a freaking cluster up. What do they say? The agency comes down to that company burning in overtime. What stands out to you the most today, Michael?
Well, I think it's pretty obvious that we have a completely exaggerated version of this mechanical rotation type action that we've been used to over the last several months. But it's to a point where it's almost too erratic for the market to get comfortable with it.
You know, you have the VIX pushing 20. That probably says that, you know, the S&P low volatility ETF jumping 2% on a given day is not what most bulls would want to see right now.
and it's a pretty emphatic vote of no confidence in just a sense of open-ended AI capex. I don't think it means it's the market saying game over, but that you had vulnerable trends that are now getting an extra push to the downside.
Definitely not positive that semis and related companies are not responding to these oversold conditions that by all appearances should have given you at least a tactical bounce. But with all that said, the S&P 500 is trying to hold in this trend since the July lows and not break it.
Ooh, spooky. Let's take a look here. Oh, CENTCOM finally talks. CENTCOM says naval blockade has halted all seaborne trade with Iran for 100 days. Today marks 100 days since U.S. forces have resumed their steel wall blockade against Iran.
Nice. We got, let's see what else. We had an Iranian army spokesperson accusing Rubio of hypocrisy. Spotted comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing him of hypocrisy.
We are faced with a country that, in the midst of negotiations with the utmost savagery in a single moment, murdered 168 children and a number of athletes with forbidden bombs and 104 sailors. Have you ever seen such criminals from ancient times until now?
They were responding to comments by Rubio accusing Iran of targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Then Iran is prepared for imminent U.S.-Israeli strikes.
It's unclear which flags the vessels Iran says they had struck in the Strait of Hormuz, in other words, what country they were sailing under, but Iran says ships were linked to and encouraged by the U.S. to cross the waterway.
the attacks on four vessels with an additional three being hit by mines are a major escalation as part of Iran's emerging doctrine regarding how to counter the U.S. blockade against the country,
which Iran considers an act of war. You've got that note over here as well, that Iran says seven oil tankers have been struck and sustained damage in the Strait of Hormuz, the largest single-day toll for the waterway
since the United States and Israel started their war against Iran February 28th. Three other vessels were disabled after striking mines. The claims cannot be independently verified.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. As the trend continues, the conflict will extend to bases within the region. U.S. military has been escorting vessels through the waterway in increasing numbers
with Iran responding by stepping up attacks. U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of oil prior to the midterm election. They're making up fake hits and mines because more oil is going through the Strait of Corbouz now than ever before.
Basically, Donald Trump is probably banging the dick. Americans want relief from the war costs. Yep, old news. Okay, alright.
NASDAQ down twice percent. And, holy moly, got, let's take a peek here. Is that Plot's deal? Yeah, so he made a deal with the board. This is really just to enable him to share, I think, some non-voting shares, basically.
I think that's why they ended up doing this split. Which also lets them generate some financing potential without dilution. The drop of IPO, PBU, and whatever is going to come. Trump defends Ramazwami ad.
Eh, whatever. Let's see, we're going to look at that in just a moment and see what we got here. Anthropic. Okay.
Investment firm, probably, let's see, could double if they pull off their valuation. Anthropix, imminent public listing, points to create multi-billion dollar gain for top venture capital firms, firms, technology companies, and independent investors that have backed Claude since its
founding in 2021. Star Capital, only venture capital firm known to have a board of directors seat at the startup investment $75 million in 2023, largest check ever. That stake is now worth $7 billion.
Wow, that's pretty impressive. Look at that. $75 to $7 billion. Let's see here. Sound Ventures put together by some dude in Ashton Kutcher
invested $35 million in the same round at a $5 billion valuation. Wow, that's incredible. Yeah, they're up a little bit, huh? That's cool, good for them. Sequoia Capital only cut its first check to Anthropic
at the start of the year. Let's see here. expected to file its public IPO people look at the coming days. Oh, coming days now.
They got an IPO basically right after the election for the Christmas rally. That's my take. They got to get in for the Christmas rally. Yee-haw. You got a little bit of buy activity going into the close there,
but honestly, not much. Look at that lumentum. Not getting any movement there. I mean, crowd and net, they only got a percent, but honestly, you know, we would have almost expected them to be up.
Wow, Lone Depot is up almost 8% right here into the close. And Tesla now down 3% falling into the close. Let's go ahead and get a bell. Appreciate you joining us, Sarah. Thank you. Let's turn that day, as you know,
we're all really bleeding for that tech trade. Sunday's birthday again. Since the minute we've been on that, that's worth facing for the day this year. That looks like it's going to kick out a game. And there we go.
The bell ringing into the training day at the NYSE AT&T, ringing the bell at the NASDAQ future. Oh, AT&T, that's why the market crashed. That was the whole problem.
So, very interesting. So I have some charts that I put together for us, and I think they're somewhat useful. So let's see here. One of them has to do with Morgan Stanley's estimate of CapEx, which I think is quite interesting.
So we're going to look at that in just a moment. But first, let me just make sure I have Bloom Energy. Oh, Western Digital's out. Western Digital just beat $4.38 billion versus $4.15 billion expected.
That is a beat on net revenue. Adjusted EPS at 464 versus 410. That is also a beat. So Western Digital coming in with the beat.
We got a little bit of a movement up here now. About 2% right now. That's a beat. We're waiting for Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy will be out in just a moment. We'll be covering that as well.
So I've got both ready to go. Ready to observe what's going on. What's cooking. We are in the buy territory. Oh, where did Donald get a taco?
That's what we're all waiting for. We're all waiting for a little bit of a tacos. I kind of want to go order some tacos. Order a taco bell. Western Digital sees Q2 revenue at $5 to $5.2 billion. I don't have an estimate here of what their forecast was.
Let's see. Waiting now for Bloom, Bloom, Bloom. Bloom's rising about 1% here following the 4% rise on Western Digital. Let's take a look at some of these other things. How's Generac doing? Anyway, how's Generac been doing? It's kind of been stuck in the mud.
It somewhat surprising for Generac Wynn kind of dragged along the bottom I got a line at 69 for Wynn Wynn Resorts SanDisk moving a little bit on this What's your digital news?
Arm Holdings. Wow, Arm at the 200 DMA. There's a CPU play, too. Damn. Let me see. What is Arm's valuation right now? I mean, historically, they've been a little bit on the pricier side
because, you know, their margins are just so fantastic. Usually, the higher your margins are, the more you can demand. So, let me see here. Arm. I right now have Arm at a $1.99 peg.
So, still on the pricier side. Wow, Intuit was up 5% today. How interesting for a company that's supposed to be getting replaced by AI. Okay. What is this?
Keurig Tochter Pepper. Oh, yeah, okay. This makes sense. carrying Dr. Pepper's like at all-time highs? Almost. Almost. Yeah. Yeah, okay. All right. That's sure. Logical.
Open door at $2? Yeah. That's not the most horrible surprise. I'm not the biggest fan of the opens of the doors. Yeah, it was really bearish.
We were actually really bullish at about $0.70 and called a lot of momentum on this in the course number livestreams. streams. As soon as they got over $6, I got bearish. I'm like, this is not a $6 stock.
This is stupid. It ended up going to $10, but look at the bleed. It's now $2. So, I think the fundamentals on Opendoor actually are generally pretty easy to look at because
you just have to estimate what their flippable real estate is worth, and then you can get a pretty good idea. Axon's off $400. Salesforce had $250. Wow, Salesforce is coming up again
a little bit too. Just waiting for bloom energy right now. Should be out in about one minute. Six flags. Ah, they're still falling. Although they did have a green day today. That's interesting.
Marvell, two, two, three. Still decent. Uh, still at the top here. Alright, we're really just watching for bloom right now. Let's see what's cooking over here at the bloom.
By the way, uh, thank you to all those of you who, uh, have emailed us and have upgraded, those of you who are existing court members who upgraded to ReinvestOne. Thank you. Welcome aboard. If you have not upgraded yet, you can always email us at staff at reinvestone.com.
We did have our first upgrade window about a week and a half ago. Oh, here we go. And we have a beat on Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy comes in at 94 cents versus 68 cents expected.
Revenue at 1.24 billion versus an estimate of 1.08. EBITDA comes in at $2.99 versus $2.41. That's a nice clean beat over at Bloom.
So once again, the artificial intelligence stocks or related are doing quite well. Let's see here. Let's go to Bloom.
Bloom Energy Investor Relations. Okay, so Bloomy Bloomy Doomy. All right, here we go.
Bloom, let's see if we can get their press release here. It should be able to. Here we go, third quarter results. Let's just do a quick little look-see-duck-see. Why don't we?
All right, so current liabilities at, oh, look, accounts payable one. Somebody left a one in there. That's hilarious. I don't actually think I've seen a typo like that before.
Current liabilities at about $1.4 billion. I've got cash at $2.4 billion, also one. Oh, there's a bunch of ones. Oh, it's related to the footnote. It just shows up funny. Oh, I see. Okay. Well, that's kind of dumb.
I've got some recourse debt over here. I've got deferreds otherwise. Another $2.4 billion of long-term debt. So the balance sheet's, like, okay, especially since we do have inventories. We have accounts receivable here.
So that's three. They don't have a lot of bills to pay. Take out the deferreds over here, about $1.2 billion in bills to pay. That's fine. What do I got on REVs? Revenue. Look at that revenue growth.
I mean, that's a pretty clean 20% right there. And their cost of revenue is up 818.7 divided by 7.7. Up about 27% increase in cost.
And, oh, welcome aboard. literally as I'm live here. Thank you so much. I don't know if you have an info at email address. But anyway, info at, thank you for joining.
Reinvest One, welcome aboard. I have a feeling you're going to love it. I can't wait for you to see the terminal that comes out later this year. Okay, so this is up 27% on costs,
which means, and this is 1235.8 divided by 1065.3. We're up 16% on revenue. Wait, but that's from the last quarter. That's not year over year.
That's from the last quarter. That's insane. That's actually really impressive. Year over year, they're up like double over here. Wow. Wow. But some of these costs are getting a little bit, you know, their PP is getting squeezed a little bit over here.
Let me download that so we can just write that down a little bit more clearly. search uh the bloom energy
burning 10 to 2 let's see what we have and pop pop it open alright here we go
so here I've got here we go 16% rev growth from last Q,
1235.8 divided by 519, 2.38 extra a year over year, and then total cost, this was 27% from last Q,
and cost from last year are, 367, 2.23x. So, in other words, you have pricing power year over year, but not so much from sequential.
Some squeeze there. Okay. Western Digital, no, yeah, their forecast was good, too. 560 to 6, 5.8 midpoint versus 4.82.
and you really have a good read on all of it. See how the market, oh, oh, oh wow. Oh, jeez. Well, there's the market for you, huh?
That just shows you what kind of market you're in right now. Holy moly. People are pissed. Okay, so let me take a look at this.
Here's the CapEx. so, uh, this is what I've been referring to earlier, put this together about, you know, some of the, uh, outstanding obligations that some of the AI plays have, and, and the suck
is really what, what sucks, oh, shoot, oh, no, I didn't know that was gonna happen, um, Apparently if I highlight the draft there is going to delete
So I would fix that I would fix that oopsies oopsies Ah poops
There we go, okay What is cooking here?
Oh, that is glitchy. All right, there we go. All right. So here we go. Okay, so... We just hit negative free cash flow on Meta, and they got punished.
I call it the Zuck Suck, right? We just had Bloom showing some sequential margin compression,
but they actually came out with Q3 adjusted EPS feed at 94 cents versus 68 cents,
and they had gross margin fiscal year forecast was 34% versus 33.8%, And then their Q3 EBITDA was 299.5 mil versus 241.2 expected.
Western Digital came in with Q2 guide of 5 to 5.2 billion. This was adjusted estimate guide of 5.8 at midpoint.
versus 4.2 which is a really good guide and then you had let's see here so this is basically a beat and raise and then over here you had a beat and raise
however some some PP compression right here is visible okay let's zoom out on
not just a smidge, there we go, that's on balloon, okay, uh, let's see here, there we go, uh, the
suck here is, um, it's pretty big, it's pretty big suck, so this right here, this is the, the hidden, sort of lease portion right here that goes on top of the CapEx that we're
seeing. So, like, we're seeing CapEx, but you should expect to see even more CapEx that's because of those leases not yet commenced or otherwise. Let's see here.
This is useful to watch because Meta itself has pretty big lease commitments. Okay, then over here we've got, let's see here, this we talked about the other day,
this is about AI driving the S&P 500's growth, AI CapEx. This is how much NVIDIA gets from the S&P 500, this is sort of just graphically what we read out just the other day,
which is kind of nice. And here's GE's gas turbines sold out through 2029, also very useful. The concern is, you know, what goes on with memory?
Because DRAM has been kind of getting slammed a little bit. You know, it seems ironic that RAM stocks would go down when the AI boom is expanding.
I am not the most bullish RAM at all. I think it commoditizes and logic manufacturers build around it.
You know, that could be higher bandwidth, you know, speed, whatever. But, you know, it's going to take time.
Capacity won't show until 2027, 2028, 2029. Morgan Stanley worries that part of this capex boom is memory pricing and so
that's a note here that's why if memory pricing stays capex spend could seem like it's slowing because so much of it now is capex so you know at the same time
you got the big suckening. The, the, you know, right here, the great suckening. Right, an apple is the anti-suck, exactly, that's exactly right, the anti-suck. Okay, so the more suck,
the worse it does. Alright, let's see, how are these puppies moving right now? Western Israel's about to turn nag, look, holding, look at that, right on my line, eh, ish, I
they went a little bit past here. Wow. What a day though, huh? Let's see what else is cooking. That is...
That's the AI sock. Right, oh yeah, and then it doesn't help obviously that the anthropic IPO feels like it's, you
know, getting downgraded in terms of price. then you got the harsh comments out of the law Okay Okay So Trump on Ukraine Starlink access Bottom line
is Musk put it back. Spoke to Elon. Oh, he's blaming Elon. All right. Let's talk about this a little bit. All right. So, what just happened? Look, here's the scoop. No matter
how great you're doing right now in the artificial intelligence boom, we're dealing with a pretty big suckening right now. And there's one thing I can tell you. The more companies suck capital out of the stock market,
the worse stocks do. We knew this would happen back when Google and SpaceX ended up sucking about $100 billion apiece at the end of May and the beginning of June.
We warned about the great suckening coming, and what happened? We have six weeks of the stock market going down, and he ended up having people getting liquidated and destroyed. What's happening now? Now, the crazy thing is, you're having a suckening again.
Broadcom with two massive funding rounds for opening Ion Anthropic. Oracle. SpaceX needs $40 billion, which is really just like one-tenth of what they need. Meta issuing a stock split so they could create a dual class of shares so they could fundraise more
and allows up to sell non-voting shares so we can pay his taxes in California should California end up sucking him for some money. You know, there's a lot of suck going on. And they've got to raise more money and that address for negative cash flow.
That's a lot. You put all this together and all of a sudden people are like, you know what, maybe I'm just going to go buy bonds. Maybe Kevin's right and the peak of bond yields was about 5.27 and I'm going to go buy some bonds now because if that peak comes down,
the value of my bonds goes up. And if you take a look here, if you bought at about 5.27, look at where the peak was right here. If you bought around 5.27, you'd be way up on those bonds right now because yields went straight down
and they have an inverse relationship. Yields today down 17.2 basis points, which is crazy. Oh, look, opening eye here, it's up to $30 billion in funding at $1.25 trillion valuation led by the UAE.
Even they are sucking us now. So more sucking. Now it's OpenAI. Guess it wasn't enough that they had a spy on the inside hiding hidden cameras and microphones, you know, behind TVs.
It's actually kind of cool how OpenAI ended up figuring out it was there. But, you know, still, it's like, oh, man, this boom is getting a little shy-story. But that said, treasury yields coming down does indicate a flight to safety.
We're not seeing that flight to gold. We already know why. We know. We've talked about that this morning. We've talked about gold ad nauseum, in my opinion, and so on. We won't focus on that. But you are seeing that even though companies are now beating, companies are selling off,
which is kind of strange, but it is normal when you're in a big suck. Here's, for example, Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy comes in with a pretty big beat. Their adjusted EPS came in like 50% over expectations, $0.94 versus $0.68.
Their adjusted EBITDA comes in at $299.5 million versus $241.2, which is great. And yet their stock is down. You had Western Digital that they also beat and raised.
They see their Q2 EPS at almost a dollar more at a midpoint of 580 for EPS forecast for Q2 versus 4.82 expected. And their Q1 revenue beat as well at 4.38 billion versus 4.15 and their Q1 adjusted EPS beat.
So you're getting like these beat raises and you're barely seeing a reward for these companies right now because people are nervous. Like, ah, the trend is down, the momentum's down, let's just sell AI stocks.
It's creating a glorious opportunity. This morning at our course number live streams, I said, don't bother buying between 707 and 715. This is not the zone to buy in. You buy when we break through and you're between 700 and 707.
That's the buy zone right here, this box right here. This box is the buy zone. This is where in September we had peak fear, and guess what? Now we got more peak fear on some delicious suckening.
And who doesn't want a good suckening? Well, AI companies love it, and even though they're beating and raising and their valuations are falling to the lowest levels we've historically seen, we're actually seeing these stocks underperform in the near term, which is kind of crazy to say because people are like, oh, what do you mean their valuations are low?
What I mean is this. Look at this particular chart here. Sam Rowe posted this Yardini chart, I think it is. Yeah, it's a Yardini chart. Forward P.E. ratios are collapsing for the S&P 500 component companies,
whereas forward earnings are going straight up. So earnings are going straight up, yet forward P.E., the price people are willing to pay for these companies and these earnings, is going straight down. This is a bizarre wedge that's happening in the stock market.
Anyway, obviously, remember, you can see everything that we're doing portfolio-wise and what we're allocating to or what we like or don't like. If you join us over at reinvestone.com, pay once, you get lifetime access.
A lot of you have been joining. A lot of existing course members have been upgrading as well, which is really exciting. I think probably one of the best testaments to what we do is when existing course members are like, yeah, I want to upgrade and get even more access, which is pretty cool.
But if you go to reinvestone.com right now, remember, we've got a coupon expiring in about eight days. You get the alpha membership, the portfolio transparency alerts, the reinvest stocks terminal, the homes terminal, the research terminal, all nine courses, every course number live stream, the consumer AI blueprint, and the business AI blueprint, which is pretty incredible, honestly.
This is a really good offering. Go check it out over at reinvestone.com. Now, let's focus for a moment on these earnings, because Bloom, you know, I looked at their earnings. I'm like, hey, you know, it seems good, right?
I mean, there is some reason for some people to get nervous. It can get overblown a little rapidly, because year over year, this company's, you know, grown its revenue to 2.38x.
And year over year, its costs are up 2.23x. which means that their pricing power has grown year over year. But some of that peeping has started to shrivel just a little bit on the quarter over quarter.
So on a sequential basis, they grew total revenue 16%, but total costs are up 27%. That makes people a little nervous. At the same time, as Iran is making people nervous,
the pre-election is making people nervous, And, of course, all this anthropic news is making people nervous. Remember that anthropic just saw its price get cut from $2 trillion on estimates down to now expectations that they'll end up IPOing for just $1.5 trillion.
Well, that's a 25% cut. Basically, one-fourth of the bids just got cut. So, you know, a lot of people are like, oh, crap. What happened here? This really sucks. And so, sure enough, what do we have?
Markets down. Let's take a look up close at some of this. So if we zoom into this, we can see here, you know, I think that they're going to IPO between midterms and Christmas. The reason I make the call that they're going to IPO between midterms and Christmas is really because I think the market's going to rally after midterms.
And that's going to be the perfect time for them to IPO. and they don't want to IPO after the first quarter because the first quarter is when they had their big growth and they want that year-over-year growth to be in their projections, not in the past.
When you actually look at a year-over-year growth chart and you have a big moment like they did in Q1 with Claude Cowork, you want to IPO before you wrap that, not afterwards, because the growth's just not going to look as good afterwards
as it does if you compare. It's like right now, if you compare year over year, December to December, before their big moment in Q1 of 26, December to December, they're going to look glorious. It's going to be like, oh yeah, our revenue's up 10x.
You go June to June, it's going to be like, oh yeah, our revenue's up 80%. You know, it's still going to be good, but it's just not going to be like, you know, a multi-X that it was if you go IPO sooner.
So that's why I think they're going to, they've really got to IPO ASAP over here. I think one of the issues, though, that you find is the company is really kind of at a rock and a hard place because they have a lot of competition.
So is it the most ideal time to go public right now when there's volatility and concern about AI? No. Do they kind of have to? Yeah, because A, they're not going to be able to fundraise really well privately anymore at these valuations.
And B, so they kind of need to go public so they can suck money out of the market. and being that they don't want to pull that year-over-year lap or face that year-over-year lap problem. Now, they're also very critical,
and it's why I can't wait for them to be public, because they have $518 billion of compute commitments, which is, like, really, really big, right? That's a lot of spending.
And they need to raise money for that. So this basically is a lot more suck. Let me write it down here. a lot more stuff, and being public helps them. Plus, we'll make the note of it,
plus being public before they lap Q1 will let them brag about Q4 to Q4 earnings on their first post-IPO earnings session probably in Jan or February.
That's going to be a good brag. that will help them suck even more money from market. And that's the whole name of the game right now. This is like, this is a really big financing problem.
That's really what this is. I mean, look at this. Okay, these charts right here. So we've talked about these on the channel already. The problem with these charts is these charts are really telling us, hey, like this S&P 500, you know, group of companies right now,
they're kind of getting propped up by AI, and if there's any poopy-doopy in AI, it's going to cause some serious problems. And I get it. And this is why when people worry about, you know, is AI really going to be productive? Is it really going to lead to deflation?
And, you know, cost of goods sold for products or services? There's a lot of doubt. I get it. I happen to be really bullish, but that's okay. You know, I don't have to be right either. I think I am. But, you know, I have this crazy, maybe a delusional outlook
that in the 2030s, we're going to see this insane confluence of things that nobody's going to believe. Okay? I think, and I don't know that we necessarily need all of these things to happen, but I think, and I tweeted this, at RealMe, Kevin,
but I think rates will end up back at zero by 2032. Maybe 2033, somewhere in that range. 2032, 2033, somewhere in that range, rates will be back at zero. We'll have the lowest rates ever.
Real estate's going to freaking skyrocket in the 2030s. I think we'll be over this Middle East and Russia bull crap. We'll be back to $40 per barrel on oil. And I think all of this AI build-out that we're seeing now is going to end up leading to some serious deflation for goods and services.
The concern is, will the labor market hold up? And that's where the answer is probably no. So they'll have to print money so the Democrats can hand out more stimulus and socialism, which will keep rates low because they're trying to, you know, ironically that's supposed to create inflation,
but we'll be fighting so much deflation we won't see it. And so that keeps rates at zero and money printing going on, which is awesome for real estate. And it's almost like somebody's been positioning for that for the last four years and it's still positioning with their little startup called Reinvest,
where when people sign up for the Reinvest One membership, we take that money and go buy more real estate or other assets, mostly real estate. I'd say like 90% real estate. like we just bought, we just closed on another deal
for, what did we close? We closed on, it's an 800 it's about an $890,000 deal, I don't even think it's going to need $80,000 to fix it up maybe it takes a little more, but it's
in like a 1.2 to 1.3 neighborhood, so like, you know, we'll be all in for under a mil and I think we'll be up $200,000 to $300,000 on the thing, which is great and I think there's just going to be more opportunities like that
so we're really excited about that, but anyway So call me delusional on that. That's fine. I get it. And I get the uncertainty because the suckening is insane right now, okay? I mean, look at some of this, and I write this over here. The suck gets hardest when we hit max negative cash flow. We're not there yet, okay? We are just now turning negative cash flow at meta and others.
So, like, the suck is really just starting to happen. So, you know, Hyperscaler Neocon CapEx is expected to be $1.58 trillion in 2027.
That's up 60% from 2026. You've got to raise that damn line somewhere. And we just literally doubled. Like, we doubled going into $798. Now we're going to go up to $158, and then we're expected to go up to $1.18.
What finances this? What finances this? Lots of suck. And that creates more volatility in the market. And that's why companies are getting cheaper by the day, valuation-wise.
That's my take on this. Now, obviously, you have these leases as well, these sort of like hidden leases that make people very nervous. and I get it, you know, Meta's got these leases as well for data centers. I think
they're doing it because they think they're going to generate a lot of money with their MUSE models and selling these models to businesses and advertising or whatever but it going to take time to prove that out And I don think they see real revenue until the beginning of 2028 from their models So you know that does give you a headwind between now and then for Meta I
bullish. Meta, I'm also, you know, I buy the dip on Meta, man. You want to see a full buy the dip? And we bought the dip, by the way, today. You know, this morning on the Alpha report, I said, and we were at like five, we were at 715 this morning. And I'm like, nah, don't buy the dip.
But, nope, it's not. If somebody literally asked me on my live stream this morning, like, oh, should we buy the dip? I'm like, no. And I'm not giving personalized financial advice, obviously. But they're like, okay, what do you think about buying the dip?
I'm like, no. It has to get to 700 to 707. And it did. I'm accused. And so, you know, we picked some stocks and we go buy the dip. You can see what those are. Join us over at reinvestone.com.
If you're an existing course member and you want to upgrade to the terminal, by the way, The first upgrade window already closed, but you can email us at staff at reinvestone.com. And remember, I want to keep going through this post, but if you can't afford joining, I get it.
One thing I would encourage you to do for free, it's obviously very different, but you can get this daily wealth and daily digest and some price target mailing list at meetkevin.com slash digest.
meetkevin.com slash digest. But let's think about this for a moment. So if we go back to this, right now, it's understandable that people are nervous about artificial intelligence because look at how much of artificial intelligence capital expenditures are contributing to S&P 500 sales growth.
S&P 500 sales growth, so the growth that exists in the S&P 500, 15% of it this year was due to AI at CapEx. Next year, that's expected to be 24%.
That's huge. And guess where most of that frickin' money is going? NVIDIA. NVIDIA is getting $690 billion from those capital expenditures. This is very bullish NVIDIA, by the way.
Bullish NVIDIA. NVIDIA is dirt cheap right now. Dirt frickin' cheap. I mean, they're probably selling at like a .58 peg or something like that. Very, very inexpensive right now. And then, of course, you're seeing a lot of ASICs, which are custom accelerators,
which, you know, Traniums are built on the 7, 5, and 3 nanometer nodes, if I remember correctly. Like the Tranium 3 is built, I think, on the 3 nanometers. Google's doing the TPUs.
The Tranium's done by Amazon, obviously. And they do these in partnership generally with companies like Marvell and Broadcom. So the ASIC market's going to boom. I really see this continuing in 27 and 28.
You can see the forecast here of ASICs taking more and more market share. of compute capacity. So incremental compute capacity is not just GPUs or CPUs. It's also these custom accelerators,
application-specific integrated circuits, the ASICs. But then, of course, you have the power, which, I mean, we just talked about Bloom Energy, how you could beat and raise and still go down in stock. And look at gas turbines over at GE Vernova.
Turbine pricing is expected to be $3,000 per kilowatt, and they're sold out, basically, for the rest of the decade. Dude, this is not a boom that is some, like, you know, here today, gone tomorrow, boom.
All these rich hyperscalers are plowing, plowing money into this AI cycle. I think people are just shitting their pants right now. Because you got an election coming up.
You got threats about Iran, you know. Oh, Iran says seven warships hit. You got Tehran saying ships were encouraged by the U.S. to cross, so we mined them. Donald Trump says it's fake news.
The New York Times says, oh, the plans are getting set up to attack. CENTCOM says our blockade is working. Iran's got a clown of Donald Trump in jail. You know, the world's on fire.
You got the Fed meeting coming up in, you know, a week. Next Wednesday, you got the Fed meeting. Oh, are they going to raise rates? there's so much bull crap going on right now these are the times you generally buy
these are the times when the mix is skyrocketing you look and you go don't worry about it you could flee to safety over here and you could buy bonds but you could buy bonds directly you could also buy TLP
you could buy a stock that's very bankruptcy risk dependent over here LDI but this is a 57 cent stock that I don't think goes bankrupt for at least a year
I think they have a year in it I have some exposure to this. I want to be clear. I always want to be clear. Okay? I am the last person who's trying to make money off of, like, oh, I'm trying to, you know, short-term pump something and then dump it or whatever.
Like, I'd rather lose money. But this is an interesting one because I think they're going to be able to survive for at least a year. And I think we just hit peak yields, which means I think this $57 stock,
A, they're probably going to reverse split. But before the reverse split, I think they'll probably go back to a $2 to $3 stock pretty damn quickly if yields keep falling like this. Hashtag no guarantees, not personalized financial advice.
But this is a much more rate-sensitive play than something like TLT. But if you don't have the balls to touch a bankruptcy risk play, you could go for Rocket Mortgage or Lenar. You know, Lenar is the one that Berkshire Hathaway is scooping up.
I don't have exposure to Lenar, again, full-time fancy. But, you know, their pricing power has gotten schluttered. Not like schluttered bathrooms. More like slaughtered. Slaughtered. Look at Lenore.
I have Lenore up here. Look at Lenore. So margins have halved, dude. Their margins have gone from 9% to 4.8%. Their margins are getting sucked. So it's not just the great suckening.
It's the suckening of Lenore margins because rates are so high. You know, their revenues are going down in multifamily. they've basically stopped building multifamily. Their revenue as multifamily has plummeted. Their headline numbers over here have come down as well.
$7759 billion divided by 8253.6. I'm down 6% on headline revenue because it's just not a sexy time to buy real estate right now, you know?
Somebody in the chat's asking, Kevin, will you be missing tomorrow's live because you'll be in line to pick up the iPhone Duo? No. No. No. No. Like, no. I'm not going to the Apple store.
At least that's what I keep telling myself. I really, I'm only disappointed in Apple because they said they put my order in, but I really don't give a flying hooty-dooty. I've got so much work to do with reinvest.
I don't give a crap about the phone. I sit in the damn office a lot of the time anyway, so it doesn't matter. Like, if I had a do-er, I'd be sitting here on a desk. okay I've got I've got like 10 Apple computers that I run agents on I got iPads I do research on
sometimes I print because I think my vision is going to go kaput if I keep looking at screens all day long uh you know it'd be it's a nice to have it's not a need to have honestly I was thinking myself like I'd probably destroy the dual if I went skiing with it this season
because uh I don't think it's a very skiable device at least the iPhone you know you kind going to chuck it, and it's a little durable, and I go running with this puppy, too, which I don't know how I'm going to go running with an iPhone Duo, but no, I'm not going to stand
in line for it. I will say, Apple is the anti-AI suck. You have to know that. So, in fairness, I did buy Apple suck when they announced the Duo, because I thought the puppy was going
to get sold out. I am so bitter that Apple screwed me, but I'm over it. No, I'm not. I'm not over it. I'm over meat, like I don't eat it, but I'm still pissed at them, so I'm not over being pissed with them. But Apple, so we bought Apple at like $315
and we sent out an alert that we were buying this at like $315. And my alert was, I think this iPhone Duo is going to sell out. Like this is the next big upgrade cycle for Apple. And, you know, obviously not personalized financial advice.
You could join us at reinvestone.com if you want. But I sent that out because I believe the Duo is going to sell out. I believe this next upgrade cycle is here. But one of the reasons that Apple is also doing very well right now is because Apple doesn't suck.
Like, they suck, but they don't suck. Like, they suck at business for screwing their businesses, but they don't suck money because they don't have to fundraise, like, you know, the likes of Meta or Elon Musk
or whatever with the great big suckening, right? Kevin, it's butter. Nah, I think you could justify it as, you know, a business expense. I don't think you necessarily have to call it butter. But what is this?
Racing along with more AI's hard events. Because I see Bloom right now is down 5.8%. And I see a note coming through the wires right now on it. Let me take a look at this right here with it.
It's got... Okay, here we go. This is Bloom. Okay, here we go. Third quarter, 2026 guidance extends the AI power revenue ramp up and shifts focus to cash conversion.
The revenue midpoint rose from July after Q3 sales climbed 16% sequentially, which is freaking amazing. Non-GAAP income guidance also rose for the year, 995 million midpoint from 850.
Stronger earnings trajectory now needs to show up in cash after operating cash flow turned negative. Ah, there it is. Operating cash flow turned negative. it's literally everybody just cares about the cash flow right now and I get it you know this is one
of the reasons I like diversifying your real estate all right you know my view is bro 90% of our capital is just real estate buy real estate buy real estate buy real estate I still love stocks don't get me wrong like I'm enamored by stocks I always thought that you know I was weird looking
at financial statements when I was 18 19 20 years old I'm 34 now uh and so I always thought oh everybody does that. I must be clueless about stocks. And then you come to find out that, like, oh, no, it's actually very rare for people to look at financial statements.
Now, fortunately, you can just listen to me look at financial statements. Like, let's go look at their actual cash flow statement here. So cash flow, let's see here. Here's their net income, which was very well positive. I think it's cut off. I think it's supposed to be right
here. That's why I don't see it. That's okay. I'll go to their website really quick. Let's look at their cash flow. Here we go. So cash flow. Okay, here we go. Cash flow operating activity. Oh yeah, there you go. So look at their plant property and equipment right here.
Negative 153 minus another 27. So we are 180, negative 180 in cash flow. And they got a lot of deposits. So deposit growth is up like 50%, which is really nice. And that's in the
last three months. So deposit growth is up 50%. But they've spent more money on contract assets. Let's see here. They put stock-based compensation. They added back in. That's been pretty
stable. Accounts receivable. I got that. Reduction. Okay. Long-term assets. Accounts payable actually went up. So they still have more bills to pay right here.
So, you know, point is, bottom line, yeah, these companies go cash flow negative. The market's just punishing them right now. uh spacex any potential tesla combination will be subject to further approval by our special
committee dude nobody believes the special committee okay the special committee is made up of people like brad gerson or whatever and and this schmuck is just going to do whatever the hell elon wants because you know he'll bend his he'll he'll he'll get down on his knees for
elon hey you know maybe maybe that's not such a bad thing i mean jensen basically does that's how the suck keeps going, Mary, come on, in order for the suck to keep going, people gotta get
on their knees. Now, with that said, it's worth remembering that Donald Trump is probably setting up for the most glorious frickin' taco right now, okay? I, for one, and I tweeted
this earlier, I, for one, cannot wait to see how many thousands of trades Donald Trump's team is setting up right now on the impending giant taco baby but in the meantime
I'm a dip, here we go, come on, quick it, I'm a dip, I'm a dip, here we go, come on, quick it, hold your tongue, what's happening? First of all, all this money by wallchains is making me sick.
140% of GameStop was short, GameStop was short, short. You can't allow wallchains to short. Every stock was into the stock. What these people say to the dirt, thousands of stocks into the dirt. They want to make individualist-rated money.
Everyone's got to learn. I have a kid who bought a home. They took his house and now they bought a home. After decades of this choice, you haven't seen the fact that individuals out there are playing the same game that you're playing and now you're losing.
Here we go. Come on. Push it. Five steps. Five steps. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Five steps. Five steps. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Five steps. Five steps. Here we go.
Come on. Push it. Oh my God. What's happening? Here we go. Come on. Push it. Five steps. Live and in, here we go. Push it, push it, push it. Live and in, here we go.
Push it, push it, push it. Live and in, here we go. Push it, push it, push it. There's a lot of power in organizing in the mind. A lot of people think of together in a subreddit. There's a lot of people live in a discord who are standing in a rocket and yelling,
the ghost of the moon.