---
title: 'Market Psychology: Why Most Investors Lose Money'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=TwEGFz44_Y0'
video_id: 'TwEGFz44_Y0'
date: 2026-07-12
duration_sec: 1194
---

# Market Psychology: Why Most Investors Lose Money

> Source: [Market Psychology: Why Most Investors Lose Money](https://youtube.com/watch?v=TwEGFz44_Y0)

## Summary

The speaker criticizes common psychological mistakes among retail investors, such as treating the market like a casino, lacking risk management, and ignoring technical analysis. He emphasizes that successful investing requires discipline, understanding of market mechanics, and a long-term perspective, using examples like Gazprom and Novatek.

### Key Points

- **Common Investor Misconceptions** [00:18] — Many investors believe they can quickly enter and exit positions with large capital, but they are psychologically unprepared for losses and lack understanding of market dynamics.
- **The Casino Mentality** [01:43] — Investors often treat trading like a slot machine, expecting quick profits without considering the high probability of losses.
- **Risk Management Question** [02:53] — The speaker asks: 'What will you do when stocks start falling?' Most investors have no plan for managing losses.
- **Cheap vs. Value** [04:27] — Buying a stock just because it's cheap is a mistake. A low P/E ratio may indicate underlying problems.
- **Emotional Reaction to Drops** [06:43] — Investors who want to buy Gazprom at 120 panic when it drops to 170, showing inconsistency between their stated plan and emotional response.
- **No 'Money Button'** [08:23] — There is no guaranteed way to make money. The speaker admits he doesn't have a crystal ball and changes his views as conditions evolve.
- **Technical Analysis Works** [10:57] — Using the example of Far Eastern Shipping Company, the speaker shows how reading charts can yield 20% gains without needing fundamental analysis.
- **Novatek Analysis** [13:39] — Novatek has strong fundamentals: low debt, growing demand for LNG, and a P/E forecast of 13.2 for 2021. Technical analysis suggests a target of 1800 rubles (80% upside).
- **Trading Strategy for Novatek** [17:54] — Buy half position at current levels, add 2.5% after price exceeds 1175, targeting 1800. But warns not to buy assets that haven't grown in a year.

### Conclusion

Successful investing requires psychological discipline, proper risk management, and the use of technical analysis. Avoid the casino mentality and always have a plan for losses.

## Transcript

it was impossible to leave you alone without seeing such beauty that stretches behind me but today we will talk not so much about the market situation but about how many of you perceive this situation and your
money and the fact is that I constantly have to hear the same questions and answer the same answers I understand that having earned money you
are a specialist in some very necessary and important industry and you are clearly a great specialist in this industry if you have money but understanding of how markets work many of you excuse me but primitive you
think that having a lot of money you can come quickly put something snatch then sit out an unfavorable period then put again the words snatch then again sit out an unfavorable period and in the end
you will make money on this because you have a lot of money and you only need a little you don’t have to sit there for six months to wait for the asset to rise in price you can buy Gazprom or Sberbank shares there
put five million rubles on it that will be about how much the shares if Sberbank shares are now worth about 200 Accordingly, it will be approximately two and a
half thousand shares, not 25 thousand shares, to earn a ruble is 25,000 rubles. Doing this every day would seem like, well, I'm just saying, in general, what is a ruble on a share that's floating around at 34 rubles every day? You know, the problem is that
you won't succeed because you're not ready, my friends, for such operations. Turn it off, you'll earn, you'll be lucky, then you ready, my friends, for such operations. Turn it off, you'll earn, you'll be lucky, then you earn, you'll be lucky, then you press the button again, you'll earn another 2 rubles.
earn another 2 rubles. And you think, here it is, the button, the money's coming in for me now, I've been trading for a bit, but unfortunately, then the share will fall by 5 percent. You'll think, well, what nonsense, 5 percent, I have a lot of money,
we'll wait it out, it will come back anyway, but it will take and not return, like in Gazprom shares, which initially cost 300 rubles in 2013, in 2012, and now it costs 200 rubles, and instead of making money, you, at best,  Get stuck in
this stock, and in the worst case, friends, you won't even fit in this stock, and if or get involved with money that isn't yours, as often happens in the markets, unfortunately, then
as often happens in the markets, unfortunately, then you'll have a huge pile of problems, and instead of increasing your money, you'll lose it because psychologically you're not prepared to lose money, you're only prepared to acquire it.
I hear the same story over and over again from investors and traders who want to become investors, or vice versa, when I ask a simple question: what
will you and I do when the stocks start falling? Here's a simple question: answer this for yourself. Today, you bought Gazprom. What will you do when Gazprom reaches 150 rubles per share? You'll say it's impossible, easy.
What will you do if Lukoil is at 3,000? You can answer this question, that is, how will you manage your risks? How will you perceive your losses? But I keep hearing the same
story: the best thing is, we have enough money, and as soon as Gazprom money, and as soon as Gazprom falls to 120, we'll buy it back.  from a good position and moreover, they even tell me, but in March I bought and
made money, and you told everyone not to buy, and it doesn't occur to such a person that he was just lucky to know how things burn. I don't want to call anyone fools, but they say when a person comes to a casino, the devil gives him operas, you games to
drag him in, that's how it is here, and investing turns into an ordinary casino. He pulled the handle, broom, broom, broom, money poured out. He pulled the handle, broom, broom, broom, money poured out. He pulled the handle, oh, he pulled the handle, oh,
and then, yes, it's all a scam. No, guys, it's not a scam. You have a different approach. You buy assets that are being presented. For some reason, you think
that an asset that costs 5x the earnings per share in the PI ratio, a radio with an average ratio of 25, is very good and very profitable, but why is it worth 5x?
You haven't asked yourself this question when the average is 25, but ask yourself this question. Does that mean there are problems? Or another example: some stock is taken, people start asking, they take a stock, they example: some stock is taken, people start asking, they take a stock, they
buy, but ours is so low, but look at this stock, how it behaved.  Well, okay, the blood crisis of 19 is clear that many industries have simply fallen and cannot rise, the tourism industry, the aviation industry,
metal production, for example, also in Sao Paulo, Viessmann, and its season is simply, you understand, because the aircraft industry has fallen, air travel has fallen the aircraft industry has fallen, air travel has fallen and all this is down, but you can, you have graphs, here
again, we return to the graph, you have a graph, you can look at the graph and how this company behaved, for example, since 2015 and it turns out that we look at the amount of energy transfer, and energy transfer,
energy transfer, and energy transfer, excuse me, has been falling since 2016 on the market when oil was rising, we look at some oil producing company like Beppi and it is falling since 2016 and it turns out that
the company is falling when the conditions for it, in principle, were at least neutral and negative, or we look at some company, it has been growing and growing and growing, then in March 2020 it fell and now they are starting to grow, well, it is
clear that  The company has prospects, it's clear that theoretically this company, when everything gets better, can be doing well, but if the company is
going down, then why are you buying it? Why are you buying it just because Why are you buying it just because it's cheap? But to be honest, this isn't very clear to me at all. In general, the same questions, the
And then it turns out that a person wants to buy Gazprom at 120, but is not ready to even lose ten rubles when Gazprom is at this 180 to 170. He starts asking questions
with such wide eyes: "What happened to Gazprom?" So, what happened to Gazprom? Well, you wanted to buy it at 120, it fell to 170, why are you worried? It falls where you wanted it to at 120. So, what's the problem? Why is this causing you
such a violent surge of negative emotions? Well, you wanted to buy Gaz at 120, but you worried? Why are you fussing? Then sit and watch how beautifully Gazprom is falling, and buying it at 120, watch how
Sberbank is falling.  At 150, who's stopping you? It's a good deal, isn't it? So it turns out our desires don't coincide with our perceptions at all. Nobody likes to lose money, and everyone wants to buy today and
close the deal tomorrow. Another category of investors and traders are looking for a money button. investors and traders are looking for a money button. can record a video today, but conditions may change tomorrow. We always
probability always works against us. We still have to manage to get in so that We still have to manage to get in so that probability works for us. probability works for us. Yesterday you said that the ruble would be 70, but I didn't
say that the ruble would be 70. I said that it would possibly be 70 by the beginning of the year. So that you take this scenario into account in your investments. So that you don't rush because then you might have
because then you might have problems. Well, no, he sold the pass at 78 and wants it to be 70 tomorrow. Listen, guys, that doesn't happen. If you're looking for a money button, it's definitely not here. You understand, I don't have one, and my
crystal ball has rolled somewhere. I can change my thoughts. 100500 Once a day, I just share with you this information that I have, and I assure you that in my head, I have a much better understanding of what is happening than
you do. I know that many respect me for this and therefore subscribed to this and therefore subscribed to this channel. I do the same, and my colleague who gives excellent trading signals for investors who suddenly decided to
chat, and then they become traders because Eduard shows them his position, where he has 100 % growth in a year. But Eduard has been in the market for 13 years and is staring at the
monitor for 20 hours a day. Well, if you can't afford to trades, then nothing will work out for you, no matter what signals Eduard gives you in the Eduard draws a possible scenario, and then they write. But you promised, he explains,
listen, and friends, I drew a possible scenario that if this and that happens, the trade can be opened. With such profit and risk indicators, there are no recommendations for you. Take it, buy it here and close it. Here it was said that
if a number of conditions are met.  Then you will get your profit. No, you promised us. How can he promise you anything at all? Well, as if he could promise you anything.
He would have promised himself first of all that he earned 100 percent per year. Again, if we talk about 100 percent per year, there are assets with which you can earn money, and assets with which you cannot earn money. Take, for example, the 3rd shell of the Russian market.
Well, judge for yourself. There are low-liquidity companies there. It is impossible to enter if all the participants buy something before something, the price will fly away. Again, about the chart, I'm telling you from the video I saw, friends, read the charts, read the charts,
read the charts. I'm getting the same thing again. But Petya on such-and-such a channel said something there. Let's test this. What Pyatenko Let's test this. What Pyatenko said there? Yes, why do you need to drink? And in the
simple example. A week ago, I gave the Far Eastern Shipping Company. A week ago, I said we're buying at 850. I do n't know what's going on in this mask of the Far Eastern Shipping Company. I read it.
seemed normal to me, and what kind of corporate showdowns were there? They stole it, they didn't steal it. I didn't care at all, although of course, from the point of view of a some kind of corporate conflict could be. But
look at what happened with the Far Eastern sea pair host today. You could have earned 20 percent on it. Last week, open a trade and Last week, open a trade and
read the chart. I didn't need anything. You see, I'm not a rocket scientist. I just chart is there? Your charts are burning in my head again. Technical analysis is [ __ ]. About Bitcoin, I had a story like that. I was drawing a story on Bitcoin. What can I say?
understand anything. Listen to all the forecasts I gave for Bitcoin. In the medium term, they will come true. I said that Bitcoin would be $3,000. It didn't remember. They say you said that Bitcoin should reach some goal,
Bitcoin should reach some goal, but it didn't.  All the other cryptocurrencies that got there are 100% likely to be there, but don't know anything about it. Technical analysis doesn't work. You know, you
don't know, you don't like cats because you don't know how to cook them. If you don't know how, you don't know what technical analysis is. You're stupid, you don't work in the market, you're changing this wave. Markets change constantly, every
day. Today, rain, tomorrow, snow, the day after tomorrow, heat, the day after tomorrow. It will completely tomorrow, heat, the day after tomorrow. It will completely collapse. Everyone has gotten used to the market growing for 10 years, but they don't want to get a two-year period of market decline.
don't want to get a two-year period of market decline. Well, for two years, like Gazprom, you bought at 300 and then dropped to 120 or 150. How do you like that prospect? From the money earn here, there's no free money. There are people and organizations with billions sitting here
who are thinking about how to fluff you up, turn you into meat, and take your money for themselves. That's what they're concerned about. As for trading in investments, it's no less a kitchen. You understand, a corporate trader is sitting there. What's the
difference? A corporation is sitting there. A corporate trader is sitting there.  He doesn't care about your money at all, you counts it like carbonated drinks, he has a limit of 100 million a day, he sees a signal to press the button, 100 million went, missed everything, got a penalty, and he doesn't
green stop, he worries about whether he managed to earn himself a bonus at the end of the year or not. And I'll see how it is with you, if you pressed the button, in 20 minutes you have 10 million rubles, how do you like that prospect? Haven't you thought about
that? You need to think about it when you enter the market. 8 friends, today we'll watch another market. 8 friends, today we'll watch another kolo nova tec, an exception to the rule, Novatek is an exception to the rule, so Novatek has a good signal.
Stay with us, subscribe to the channel and share this video with your friends. And I, for my part, will inform you as quickly and with the best certainty as possible. Well, as much as I can, of course. First, it will be useful to look at a little of the foundation
for Novatek because sometimes the foundation is such that it's simply not worth wasting time. First of all, let's look at the pirate coefficient. The coefficient fluctuates, but Novatek is a
fairly new company, seventeen years old: 13 1 18 20 719 449 and then 30, one 13 1 18 20 719 449 and then 30, one indicator of another, because  Very high for the
average, but let's pay attention to the forecast for 2021, the pirates have 13.2, and the to the forecast for 2021, the pirates have 13.2, and the 2022 pirate coefficient is 10 and 6.
2022 pirate coefficient is 10 and 6. Look, what else is interesting about this stock, according to the latest data, the demand for liquefied gas has sharply increased in China. It is clear that where Novatek is, where China is, although there too, and the Northern Sea Route
can be transported to Asia through the Northern Sea Route, but overall, very good prospects for work on Asia, that is, the fundamental company looks pretty good, they pay low dividends, but unfortunately, the 235,292,379
forecast means capitalization of 41 billion for CS 13 and a half billion billion for CS 13 and a half billion dollars, and now let's look at the profit before taxes by 2020, the forecast is 3 billion 16
level of 3 billion, a drop of about 30 percent compared to about 30 percent compared to 2009, but already 2021 is very healthy, Syria is healthy, that is, a recovery to the level
2019 and with the subsequent exit to the level of almost 5 billion taxes, the operating margin is 19.7 years, the margin is 13.6, there is
debt, but it is low, the debt is 2 out of 7 billion dollars, leverage is 0.91, that is, the company has low leverage, the asset utilization ratio
is 689, but again, we see a sharp drop, and taking into account the profit received in the current year, and in the current year there is a failure, now look, let's now
look at the weekly chart, that is, we see that starting from 2017, even 2015, the company's shares grew quite rapidly, after which the company fell by about 30
percent of its value, now half has already grown, they rested here for 20 weeks on and resistance, but the price also formed support in the region of 1000 36 rubles. Well, I would say that at the 1000 level, this is how there is support from below and
above the level of 1300, that is, reaching the level of 1364 is an immediate increase of 30 percent, but let's look at the prospects for investing let's look at the prospects for investing in this company there.  5 to 7 years or
even shorter since we have a weekly chart here, well, let's take three years to start with, and we are interested in the 160 18 Fibonacci level, the so -called phi number, the prospect of the 160 18 level is 1800, the
prospect of the 160 18 level is 1800, the 1800 level is an 80 percent increase from the current level, that is, approximately in the next five years, unless of course nothing extraordinary happens, we can assume that the
company's shares will grow to the level of 1800 rubles per share, that is, they will give 80 percent or approximately 15 percent per annum, taking into account two percent annual
percent to Vova growth will turn out, but this is a very good prospect, and now let's look at the daily and now let's look at the daily chart in order to determine the convergence point.
chart in order to determine the convergence point. Look, now such a trading pattern is very good, trading has been going on for about six months, the company's shares are not going up for the reason that demand is weak now, but from the lower limit of the range, counting on the
upper limit of the range, and you can buy and buy more after the buy and buy more after the price goes beyond the level of 1175, that is, look at the scenario.  The development of the situation is as follows, let's assume now we buy half a
position from five percent, then here we buy two and a half percent of the capital and after the price goes above the level of 1175, closes there for a month, we buy more of our
1175, closes there for a month, we buy more of our position to pursue the target of 1800. I said why I said this, I will explain to you now, but in general, given the current situation, I do not recommend investors buy assets that have not grown for a year. So, if we
look at Novatek, given the current situation, in September 2019, its shares were more expensive, that is, now Novatek is trading lower than in 2019 a
Novatek is trading lower than in 2019 a year ago. But given the upward trend of Novatek, we can assume that this company will recover and the recovery will be quite stable, fast and effective. However, do not
forget that my ball has rolled, I never found it, so be careful and cautious and do not enter a position larger than you can afford to lose. Do not forget that at the link at the bottom of this
video you can find out the price of the trader's message where you can receive signals in real time, despite the fact that we will soon open not just an investor chat, but we are switching to a new platform.  We're learning at the traders' club, which has a
wide range of features. It'll be really cool. There's a trial period in October, and then we'll start making money there.