---
title: 'Housing Market Update: Truth About Home Prices & Mortgage Rates'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=4ATQ_MarE1I'
video_id: '4ATQ_MarE1I'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 574
---

# Housing Market Update: Truth About Home Prices & Mortgage Rates

> Source: [Housing Market Update: Truth About Home Prices & Mortgage Rates](https://youtube.com/watch?v=4ATQ_MarE1I)

## Summary

This video provides a data-driven update on US home prices and mortgage rates, covering June housing statistics, inventory levels, foreclosure trends, and the link between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields. The host argues that crash predictions are overblown and explains how geopolitics, inflation, and Fed policy shape the mortgage rate outlook.

### Key Points

- **June home prices rose 0.3% month-over-month** [00:01] — Redfin data shows single-family home prices up 0.3% from May and 3% year-over-year in June.
- **Median US home price: $440,600** [00:32] — NAR reports the median existing home price at $440,600, up 1.8% from a year ago across all home types.
- **No evidence of housing crash** [01:00] — Inventory is stagnant: 1.56 million homes for sale, up 1.3% year-over-year, with 4.6 months of supply — the same as a year ago. A crash would require a flood of supply.
- **Foreclosure headline is misleading** [01:43] — Foreclosure filings surged 21% this year, but from a small base. First-half 2026 saw 227,548 foreclosures vs 1.65 million in 2010; prices didn't bottom until 2012.
- **Don't wait for a crash to buy** [03:04] — If a crash happens, the bottom may take until 2031-2033 to appear, so trying to time the market is risky.
- **New construction isn't flooding the market** [03:33] — New home building levels have been stable for four years and are down from pandemic peaks; the US also loses about 350,000 homes to fires and wildfires each year.
- **Mortgage rates sit at 6.6%** [04:12] — The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.6%, elevated because rates track 10-year Treasury yields, which compensate for inflation and default risk.
- **Treasury yields drive mortgage rates** [05:49] — With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63%, mortgage rates must include a risk premium. In 2021-2022, Treasury yields were below 2%, which is why mortgages were around 3%.
- **Iran war escalation pushed rates up** [06:18] — Energy price spikes on war escalation raised inflation expectations and pushed Treasury yields higher; de-escalation brought them down again.
- **Money printing and de-dollarization add pressure** [07:55] — Persistent money printing and de-dollarization keep upward pressure on interest rates.
- **Rates range-bound between 6% and 8%** [08:09] — For the past four years, 30-year fixed rates have stayed in the 6%-8% range, briefly testing 6% before the Iran war pushed them back up.
- **Outlook: 6% to 7% rates for now** [09:06] — Unless the war or monetary policy changes significantly, mortgage rates are likely to stay range-bound between 6% and 7%.

### Conclusion

Despite scary headlines, the housing market shows no signs of a crash; prices are rising modestly, inventory is tight, and mortgage rates are likely to stay in the 6–7% range unless the war or monetary policy changes significantly.

## Transcript

housing market updates and we're going to focus on home prices and mortgage interest rates. So the latest data that we have is for June, which is reported be reported in August. So for June, home prices rose by 0.3%
compared to May. So 0.3% price growth month-over-month. And in June, home prices are up by 3% compared to June of 2025. So 3% growth Redfin. And here are the stats from the National
Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in the US is now at $440,600. And that's up 1.8% compared to 12 months So the difference between Redfin's numbers and the National Association of
Realtors is that Redfin's stats were for single-family homes up 3% or year-over-year. And National Association of Realtors is for all home types up of Realtors is for all home types up 1.8% year-over-year. Now, I just want to
evident that there's no housing market crash. We've been hearing that a crash you know, constantly for the past 5 years. I've never called a housing market crash, I'm just saying. Now, if you want home prices to come
down, then you need more supply than demand, right? If you want a housing market crash, then you need a flood of inventory, like a flood of supply to overwhelm demand. But I want you to know that inventory has been stagnant. There
are currently 1.56 million homes for sale, and that's up by 1.3% compared to 12 months ago. So there's 4.6 months of supply of unsold homes on the market right now. 12 months ago was at 4.6 months of supply,
There's been no flood of inventory over the past year. Now, you may see headlines like this. Now, for example, this was an article that was published It says that foreclosure filings have surged 21% this year. And that sounds
scary if you just read the headlines. And maybe that means that there's going to be a flood of inventory and there's going to be a housing market crash soon. But let's take a look at the details. Let's look at the fine prints.
So the foreclosure data was released in July and it covers the foreclosures from January to June. All those bars represent January to June in their respective years so that we can compare apples to apples.
foreclosures if you're talking from a percentage standpoint. But I just want to say that it's misleading because it's a big percentage jump from a smaller base. But listen, I want you to take a look at
how many foreclosures that we've had the first half of 2026, so this year. first half of 2026, so this year. 227,548. And I want you to compare that figure to 2008, to 2009, 2010. In 2010, there were
1.65 million over the same time period. And home prices, just for information, And home prices, just for information, didn't bottom out until 2012. So what I'm saying is that if you're trying to time the markets and buy a
home at rock-bottom prices after the next housing market crash, previous housing market crash, then you may be waiting around until 2031. Could be 2032, 2033. Like if you're waiting for a housing
Like if you're waiting for a housing market crash, I understand why. Like the housing. Like I understand. Like I get that, but these are the stats and I you know, fantasy land. Like >> [sighs]
>> you know, hoping for something that's improbable, like right around the homes, right? Wouldn't that be a solution? Well, those figures have been stable for the past 4 years and it's actually down
big from the pandemic. So we're not seeing a flood of new inventory. And not to mention that Okay, yeah, they're building this quantity of them, but you have to remember that there's
hundreds of thousands of homes in the US that are destroyed each year. About 350,000 homes get destroyed from fires each year. wildfires. Now, I want to take a look at mortgage
So, the average mortgage interest rate on a 30-year fixed is currently at 6.6% and that is high, and what is going on? understand that mortgage interest rates are correlated with interest rates on
government debt, specifically the 10-year Treasury notes. So, just take a look at the correlation for the past 30 years. The blue line is the average interest rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage, and that gold line is
the interest rate on the 10-year notes. So, it's a very simple concept if you think about it. Like, you can lend money to the US government by purchasing a 10-year Treasury notes that's going to pay you 4.6% interest a year.
to pay you back in full because if they can't, like if they run out of money, money and pay you back. So, it's like a guaranteed thing. guaranteed thing. Now, would you lend money to someone to
buy a home if they're going to pay you an interest rate of 4.6%? the most likely answer is no. Like, why would you do that? Because that person default. And then you would lose your money, and
their home value might go down. So, even if you took possession of their home, buy, you might still lose money. So, why would you take that risk when the government is offering you 4.6%
So, that's why there's going to be a premium. The interest rate on a mortgage will be higher than the interest rate on government debt. Like, that makes sense, right? Okay, now that you know the correlation, here's what's going on.
This is the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury notes. It's at 4.63% and this is a 5-year chart. Back in 2021, early 2022, the interest rate on the 10-year note was below 2% for certain periods well below 2%
and that's why we had mortgage interest rates of 3%. But then inflation accelerated, inflation expectations increased, and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Now, this is a 5-year
1-year chart. Okay, so here we are. This is a 1-year chart of the 10-year Treasury notes. And this is where interest rates on government debts started to climb back up again when the Iran war broke out.
Okay, why? Why did that happen? It's because energy prices started shooting up. That increased inflation expectations and if people think that investors are going to want to be compensated more for lending their money
out. They want to be compensated more by charging a higher interest rates. So, for example, you're not going to lend money to someone to buy a home and you're not going to charge them an interest rate of 3% if inflation is
interest rate of 3% if inflation is running at 4%, 5%, 6% because if you do, you're making less than the rate of inflation, right? So, energy prices shot up, inflation expectations went up, so interest rates
on government debt went up, and that caused mortgage interest rates to go up. Right here, there was de-escalation, energy prices went down, inflation expectations went down, and interest rates went down.
And then the war started escalating again and energy prices started climbing started climbing up again, and along with it, interest rates. But just this weekend, the US is taking a pause from the war. In other words,
they're not they're not escalating. So, I imagine that energy prices are going going to come down, and interest rates on government debt will come down, so will mortgage interest rates until the war starts escalating again.
ongoing money printing, you know, that's not helping the situation either, nor is de-dollarization. average interest rate on a 30-year fixed. This is from the Federal Reserve.
So, we've been stuck in the 6% to 8% range for the past 4 years. that 6% mark. You know, we did for a brief few days, but then what I circled, that's when the Iran war broke out.
crystal ball, like trying to predict the future, I just want to say that if you rates are going to go up or down from here, rate on the 10-year notes because it's going to be dependent on that, right?
So, if you want to know if the interest rate on the 10-year notes is going to go up or down, well, then you're going to have to ask both President Trump, you know, he's going to escalate or de-escalate, what's the situation with
Of course, that's that's because it's going to affect energy prices and person that you have to ask is Kevin Warsh, chair of the Federal Reserve, policy, interest rates, and money printing.
because we don't have a crystal ball, and we can't read the minds of President Kevin Warsh. But if there's no major changes to the war, nor monetary policy, then we're going to stay stuck range-bound from 6%
to 7% mortgage interest rates for the foreseeable future. Okay. Now, housing market situation. I hope that helps. Please subscribe. Thank you for the support, and I wish you a very nice day. Take care.