[00:01] chairman of the Federal Reserve. We got a dovish hole today. This was not expected at all. Everybody was expecting Kevin Worsh to talk to us. Unless, of Trump suggesting that everything's going to be okay. Don't worry, we're about to
[00:17] make a deal with Iran. Now, why do I say that Kevin Worsh was doubbish today? Let's talk about the facts. At the last meeting, Kevin Walsh told us financial conditions are really tight. And you would be hardpressed to suggest that
[00:30] financial conditions are not considered tight right now. Today, he says, "We are quote unwilling and unable to call financial conditions tight." In other financial conditions tight." In other words, a 100% flip-flop in 6 weeks.
[00:44] Quite strange. He's citing credit spreads and credit default swaps, but they've started coming down again, which in other words suggests, no, maybe financial conditions aren't exactly that tight. So, all of a sudden, real dovish.
[00:58] But it's not just that. All of a sudden, he wants to sit on on a sit in on a 3 to he wants to sit on on a sit in on a 3 to four hour labor force task force, not any of the other task forces. He on November 16th 16th wants to sit in on a
[01:13] productivity and jobs task force to see if we really are going to see a productivity miracle in the labor market or if the labor market's about to weaken It's basically telling us, hey, hey
[01:26] guys, uh yeah, I'm not going to hike and I'm going to say whatever I need to not to hike cuz Donald's going to fire me otherwise. This was really strange. Then otherwise. This was really strange. Then he literally brought back what he got
[01:38] chastised for last time. LA, well, not last time in in June. In June, his first "Oh, we're going to pay attention to the inflation number to the left of the 2.9% inflation and he'd be happy with it. People freaked out about that. And
[01:54] it took him three meetings to get a reputation of having credibility again. we're going to look to the left of the decimal. I'm like, "What? Why are you going back to this? You're going full circle back to what you shouldn't go
[02:07] Besson saying, "Ah, the oil inflation's just transitory." And then the craziest thing of all, Worsh literally says, "Hey, uh, you know, hypothetically, to the extent that oil prices might come down suddenly, we
[02:22] might have to change what we do and a lot of things are going to get affected in what we do." When does a Fed hypothetically suggest oil prices are suddenly going to fall? Unless of course Donald Trump either through force or
[02:35] convincing or otherwise just convince the Federal Reserve to not what to I don't know. Maybe a deal is coming after all. But this was a weird one. And
[02:47] it was not a unanimous hold. 10 people went for the hold. Two went for a hike. Hammock and uh cook. We'll see. Is the bed cooked?