---
title: 'Live Trading Kalshi Prediction Markets! [Beginner-Friendly Guide]'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=lmmgVZscZso'
video_id: 'lmmgVZscZso'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 3059
---

# Live Trading Kalshi Prediction Markets! [Beginner-Friendly Guide]

> Source: [Live Trading Kalshi Prediction Markets! (Beginner-Friendly Guide)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=lmmgVZscZso)

## Summary

This live stream is a beginner-friendly deep dive into trading Kalshi prediction markets. The host explains how prediction markets work, shares live basketball, football, and 'mention' market trades, and demonstrates an ROI-based approach to finding edges—from situational sports analysis to hedging.

### Key Points

- **Prediction market boom** [02:40] — Kalshi's valuation has doubled in three months; the company just raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, and CNN has begun using Kalshi data for on-air predictions.
- **Kalshi goes on-chain with Solana** [04:33] — Kalshi announced it is powered fully on-chain with Solana, offering a $2 million builder grant and thousands of tokenized markets, so crypto can be used end-to-end.
- **You can sell before the result** [05:16] — Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi lets you close a position before the event ends; if a contract bought at 70 cents rises to 85 cents, you can lock in the profit immediately.
- **ROI mindset over win/loss** [09:32] — The host evaluates trades by percentage return over time—a 91-cent favorite returns only 9% on your money in three hours, so he skips heavy 'juice' plays; a 19% or 24% return in a few hours beats a 2% annual savings yield.
- **Spot situational edges in basketball** [11:13] — He likes Cleveland at 82 cents because Portland is on a back-to-back, traveled from Canada, and Jrue Holiday is out—making a 19% ROI (100 to win 119) worth the risk.
- **Mention markets offer live trading thrill** [19:07] — Mention markets let you bet on what public figures will say, e.g., whether Brian Armstrong says 'Bitcoin' or Trump says 'fake news'; the host trades a Trump announcement live, buying 'no fake news' at 63 cents as it rises to 80 cents.
- **Using ChatGPT to find niche edges** [38:57] — For the Cowboys-Lions announcer market, he checks with ChatGPT that both teams play on synthetic turf, then bets $50 to win $72 on the word 'turf' being mentioned.
- **Long-term market: Dak Prescott for passing yards** [43:23] — Dak Prescott trails Drake Maye by 151 yards but has played one fewer game and faces a favorable schedule, so he bets $50 to win $121 (more than double) on Prescott leading the league in passing yards.
- **Hedging lets you win from two sides** [47:08] — You can buy both Dak Prescott and Pat Mahomes for passing yards leader and still come out green if one side's ROI pays enough—you don't always need to pick the right side.

### Conclusion

Prediction markets are a fast-growing, actively traded alternative to sports betting and crypto trading. The key is to think in percentage returns, do real research, and manage risk—treating each trade like a short-term investment rather than a gamble.

## Transcript

in quite some time. I think we're probably going  to start doing some more streams on the channel,   but in today's video and live stream, we are going  to be jumping into the prediction market trenches.  
There are so many things you can delve into from  politics, sports, culture, music, entertainment.   You can literally predict the weather. So, you can  find so many different edges across the prediction  
market landscape. And we're going to be diving  in giving some predictions because honestly,   when the crypto market gets tricky, this is one of  the best places to jump in and actually be able to   utilize a little bit of an advantage and  be able to trade literally anything. So,  
without further ado, let's jump  into the prediction markets.
And as usual, before we jump into the content,  be sure to drop down below, hit that like button,   and subscribe to the channel. It helps us get  this in front of more crypto enthusiasts and   also prediction market traders just like yourself.  And also, we're going to be diving into so many  
different markets on today's show. So, if you want  to ask questions, if there's something you want me   to look at as far as a certain market, I'm very  happy to jump into it, give opinions. I want this   to be a super interactive show because we're going  to be doing one or two of these every single week  
on prediction markets. So, definitely, you know,  light up the chat with any questions or markets   you guys are interested in. And also, a big shout  out to Kalshi. So, these streams are sponsored and  
really just powered by Kalshi. You can actually  hit the link down below in the description and you   can get 10 free dollars if you deposit $10. So,  pretty fair offer. They'll double your deposit if  
you deposit and play $10. So, you can check out  Kalshi in the link down below in the description   if you want to follow along with the action. What  is going on Rekt Gorilla, Jorge? Everybody in the  
chat. If you guys are coming to Art Basel by the  way, let me know. Happy to make my little stroll   down into Miami. But let's just go ahead and jump  into it, guys. If you're somehow not familiar,  
if you're living under a rock, you know, South  Park did a full episode on prediction markets.   Everyone is really diving into this and it's kind  of like a gold rush if we look at it. Kalshi is   literally one of the biggest growing companies  in the entire world. I've never seen something  
rapidly catch fire like this. I mean, Polymarket  has had, you know, a really good grip on this for   quite some time, especially dating back to last  year's election. But the valuation on Kalshi has  
literally doubled in the last three months. It's  pretty incredible to see the growth here. They   just raised a billion dollars at an 11 billion  valuation. So, this narrative is not going away,   and it's definitely something we are going to want  to trade and be able to jump in and try to find an  
advantage in these markets. Well, Jorge, shoot  me a text and I will definitely come through,   my friend. And even CNN, if we remember last year  on the Polymarket side, they literally went under  
a probe because of the information and the edge  that they felt like the Polymarket data had. That   when Trump was elected as president, they knew the  results of the election, they said all this stuff.  
And now we literally see news sources, some of the  most popular in the world like CNN jumping in and   saying, "Hey, we're going to embrace prediction  markets. We're going to jump in here and we're   going to have our data powered by Kalshi." This  morning, there were literal predictions on the  
screen on CNN. It's actually crazy to see how much  fire this has caught. And even from like a month   ago whenever we saw the prediction market show  from South Park, I feel like that almost lit a  
fire. But underneath that, it's just been crazy to  see the growth in this, especially given where the   investment markets are. The stock market has been  iffy. The crypto market has been iffy. And also,   I'm happy to answer crypto questions throughout  this stream, but for the most part, we're trying  
to find an advantage to be able to jump in here  and win across prediction markets. Good play on   CNN's behalf, TBH, Fox, Better Pickup, Polymarket,  right? I mean, I don't know. It's definitely going  
to be there. It is honestly not much better data  than what these prediction markets have started   to flow. And yeah, Gorilla, they have announced  that they are now powered fully on-chain as well,  
with Solana. Let me find that announcement. I  think it was just a couple of days ago. They   have a $2 million grant for builders underneath  as well. Kalshi and Solana. Thousands of markets   now tokenized. So, if you're watching the show,  this is also integrated very much with crypto. So,  
if you want to get involved, you can utilize  crypto fully top to bottom. And of course,   being this is the first live stream doing this,  what can you predict? What markets can you trade?  
And also, how does this work? Do you have to wait  on a result to be able to potentially cash out or   be able to win on a trade, right? Let's just say  in per trading, like we talk about all the time  
in crypto, you get in, you have a 25% gain.  Maybe in your head you would like a 70% gain,   but you're okay taking that 25% off the table.  You can do that here. So, let's just click on  
the first market and we'll kind of just give an  example. So, you see who will be elected as the   president of Honduras this year. You can see Nasry  Asfura. I have no clue if I'm butchering the name,  
so if you're from Honduras, I'm sorry. But Asfura  is at 71%. Let's just say he gets, you know, a lot   of momentum over the course of the next few months  or whenever this election is. See, I'm not going  
to say I'm an expert in this political climate.  However, if he was to trend up to 80 cents,   85 cents, 90 cents, you can sell your position  even before the election results come out. So,  
it is exactly like trading during a sports match.  Okay? For example, I will go to my portfolio here   quickly. There is a game currently on and for, you  know, restriction purposes we cannot put this on  
the screen. But right now Arsenal is playing  Brentford in the English Premier League. So   as you can see here, we'll click on this match  and pull this up here. Arsenal and Brentford.  
So they're up one-nothing. I had bought contracts  on this at 70 cents. So 71 cents is where I got   filled. As of right now, they're at 85 cents. If  I wanted to exit this position in profit, I could  
do that right now. So this is not what you've  seen from, let's just say, examples, FanDuel,   PrizePicks, DraftKings. This is not even close to  that because you can trade these markets actively,  
get out of positions at certain times and actually  play them extremely strategically. So when people   make that comparison, you can find so much  more of an edge here than if you're, you know,  
playing on those other platforms, let's just say,  in a more risky manner. You can literally do the   research and put in the work and find an edge  on Kalshi. So, we'll be monitoring that trade. I  
obviously wouldn't take Arsenal at 85 cents, given  the fact we got in at 70 cents. But what we can do   is dive into a couple of markets that are going  on tonight and tomorrow. And then I'll obviously  
look into any different markets that you guys  want to go into on the chat. And I'm not sure,   I would need to open up quickly on my  phone. I'm just going to pull up my   Twitter feed just in case there's comments  over there because I am only seeing YouTube,  
but I just want to double check that I'm getting  all the comments through the show. Let's see here.   All right, perfect. I got it pulled up if they  come through. So, let's just jump into some stuff  
over the next 24 hours. So, for me, I've been  really crushing it in basketball. Right now,   there's college basketball, NBA every single day.  I feel like there's not much of an edge in hockey,  
American football obviously, but it's not every  single day. You can find an edge on basketball   every single day if you're really privy to that.  So, let's just go over to sports real quick and we   will take a look at tonight. We will start with  pro basketball. And even with pro basketball,  
I'm willing to take on a heavier favorite if it's,  you know, almost if the edge is extremely in your   favor. So, you can compare odds across different  things. If you want to backtrack on traditional  
platforms versus the percentage of a team to  win. But for the most part, when it comes to   taking heavy favorites in basketball, I'm really  just looking for that ROI percentage. Let's just   say for example, there is one game tonight that I  almost think there's no certainties in anything,  
right? But I almost think it's Houston is going  to probably come out on top against Sacramento   tonight. So, if you're just an edge trader and  they're giving you 91 cents, it's a heavy bargain,  
but you put $100 and you win $9, that's a 9% trade  in three hours if you think of it that way. So,   that is one I'm not taking. I don't want to take  that much juice. And juice means it's pretty  
pricey, close to that mark where it's almost  not worth the risk because if you lose that,   that is a pretty heavy loss on just a 9% gain.  But that's how I would start terming it in your  
mind. Whenever I'm trading prediction markets, I'm  looking at it as if I want to have a 9% ROI in the   next three hours, that's something I might look  into, right? It is an option for those people who  
are willing to take that heavier risk for a less  payout. But you can build up your account like   that very very easily. But there are games with  lower percentages that I really like tonight. So  
let's just take a look across the board here. And  I'll go over every game and my predictions here,   but I'm going to only give select picks. So just  be aware I am not taking all of these. I am going  
to go over them. I'm going to go over exactly my  thoughts, which way I would lean, if I would get   involved with it or not. So, starting at the  top, Denver and Indiana. Denver has cost me  
the most money on prediction markets. I really  don't like taking Denver whatsoever. They have   lost three over the last two weeks when they were  70% or higher. So, right now, until Denver finds  
its form, I'm definitely not going to get involved  there. I would say tonight, I like Cleveland. So,   Cleveland at 82 is a little bit pricey.  So, just for those who aren't so privy,  
100 would return you 119. So, this is 19% on  your money. That's actually not horrible. Um,   this is one I'm probably willing to take a stab  at for a 19% gain on my money considering the fact  
that last night Portland played. So, there's a  back-to-back. They had to travel. So, they played   a game last night. They have to travel. They're  going into a different city and they came out of   Canada. So they still have to, there is like a  process in that even for sports players. So late  
night last night getting into Cleveland and now I  think their best player is out. Jrue Holiday is,   I think listed as a game time decision or out. So  for me I actually like Cleveland tonight. This is  
one I'm probably willing to take a stab on. I'm  actually going to throw that in 100 to win 119.   So, what that means is I can get a 19% ROI on that  selection. I am not afraid to take favorites only  
if I do the research and put the work in. I  would not just come in here guys and start   throwing money at all the higher percentage plays.  That is definitely not how it works. You will get   burned. It is sports. There are times where things  happen. But for me, I do like Cleveland in this  
circumstance. And we will take the 19% gain  if they hit at a $100 risk. Let's keep going   down the ladder here. And Jorge, you're going to  like this one. You're going to like this one. I  
definitely do enjoy tonight. I think the Knicks,  I think the Knicks are a good look tonight. If we   just pull up the game here, we have game time  decision. LaMelo Ball. Brandon Miller's out.  
Their first round draft pick from a couple weeks  ago, their new rookie players been playing nice,   but at the same time, I just think this is one of  those games in a competitive Eastern Conference.   The East has actually gotten a lot better with  the Magic. The Bulls aren't, the Bulls aren't  
any pushovers. Detroit's extremely on their game  this year. For me, and Miami is playing well. So,   I think this is one of those games over the course  of a season that if the Knicks want to compete,  
they have to take this one. So, for me at home,  I think and yeah, let me check here at my,   yeah, at Madison Square Garden, I am going to look  here at the New York Knicks. And that would be a  
24% gain on my money. So, I'm extremely happy  with that. I treat this more like a market,   right? So, when people go in, a lot of people  would say, well, why would you risk that for 24%.  
Why do you risk your savings account with  a bank or a crypto exchange FTX? You know,   why do you trust them to hold your money for X  amount of percentages, right? So, you can find   ways to boost an APY, you could treat it as an APY  return, right? If you just think of it that way,  
it's changing your mindset on that because, you  know, we all put thousands and thousands if not   hundreds of thousands of dollars, millions of  dollars over the course of our lifetimes into a   savings account that nets you 2% a year. And we  all think that that's brilliant, right? So, at  
the end of the day, I'm willing to take a stab and  take some risks for potentially 20 plus percent on   my money in just a couple of hours. The Clippers  and the Hawks. I don't like anything in this one.  
The Clippers just released Chris Paul. I think  it's a little weird situation there. Not a game   I'm really excited to play on. We have Brooklyn  and Chicago. I like Chicago, but they're too  
pricey for a team that's pretty average. So, I'm  going to pass on that one. And I would say, Jorge,   I think Giannis gets traded. I think that like  it's one of those things that he is so high demand  
and I think he's such a good talent, but right  now his talent's just eroding on the Bucks and   the Bucks really have no, I don't think they have  greener pastures in their sights. So for me, no, I   do like the if we might find some after this I'll  search up if there's a prediction market on the  
Giannis thing. But otherwise looking at the next  game here, I do like Detroit tonight. Speaking of,   I just think right now where the Bucks are at with  all this turmoil, I don't know. It's not as high  
of a confidence play. But I am willing to put 50  to win 26. So, a little over a 50% return there or   yeah, 50% return. If I'm winning 26 off that. So,  we will definitely take that. I'll put 50 there  
to win 26 on Detroit. And notice I'm not going  extremely hard because it's sports and things   happen, okay? You know, Giannis can go off tonight  for 50, the Bucks win. You don't want to put, you  
know, insane amount of money on every single game.  However, spreading your best, spreading, you know,   across the table, but also, risk management is  definitely important in this scenario. And I do  
have one more in pro basketball tonight. I don't  think that Klay Thompson is going to continue his   hot streak from last game, where they knocked  off, I forget who they beat, but for me, I'm  
definitely looking at Miami tonight. Miami handled  Dallas pretty easily the last time they played at   home. Yes, it's in Dallas, but this year Dallas  obviously, they ruined their franchise by trading  
Luka. So, I'm gonna go with Miami 50 and that  would result me 23. So that would be a 46% gain on   my money. So that's how I look at these markets,  guys. It is not about, wow, that's not worth it.  
Like I'm looking at percentage returns only. Let's  see here. Relax Boston got one lucky win. What's   up Pretzel? Good to see you in the chat. Jorge,  let's see here. Giannis, there has to be there.  
There literally has to be a clutch player of  the year. Let's see here. Giannis. Giannis   trade is what I'm searching here. That is very  surprising to me that there's not a market for  
if Giannis gets traded or the team that he gets  traded to. Kalshi, if you're watching, definitely   let's put it together because we have some demand  in the chat here. And also guys, like I said,  
if you want to sign up for Kalshi, get involved.  You can literally deposit 10, risk 10 on a trade,   and then they will give you $10 back. So, it is  a pretty easy proposition there. Also looking for  
whether Chris Paul will play again this year.  Maybe there's like a Chris Paul's next team. Man, I will say Jorge, we might have a new job  in our future putting up these sports prediction  
markets. I don't know. I don't know. I mean  more than just doing prediction market streams,   we could be the prediction market market makers  here. I'm telling you, I think Chris Paul will,  
there's no sense in a playoff team not picking him  up for just veteran leadership even if he doesn't   play meaningful minutes. So I would predict yes  on that Jorge that Chris Paul probably does play  
again. It's his last season, too. Like he could  benefit a team from a leadership perspective.   That's just my honest opinion. Now enough with  sports. So, for the people in the chat that aren't  
sports fans, okay, I get it. We just rambled  on some basketball for a little bit, but that's   where I see a lot of edge tonight specifically,  and it's one of those things that I'm willing to   take a stab at daily. So, that's a market that I  participate in every single day. Some of the most  
fun markets though across prediction markets  are the mention markets. So, if you guys have   no idea what this is, you can have so much fun on  these markets. Let me tell you, let's just make it  
crypto here. What will Brian Armstrong say during  the New York Times Dealbook Summit? Um, you can,   and I think this already resulted. Yeah, I believe  this was earlier today. So, you can see here he  
said prediction market. He said Bitcoin. I think  that's a pretty standard one. Delaware, Ethereum,   and he didn't say stuff like tokenized equity,  Dogecoin, memecoin, etc. I believe this was this  
morning. I saw a clip of this already, so I think  that this one's already resulted. Is there a Mr.   Beast mention market? I think there is. Here we  are. What will Mr. Beast say during the New York  
Times Dealbook Summit? I believe this is today.  So, let me on my iPad on the side, I'm going   to see if we can maybe maneuver some live here  because the odds are changing pretty rapidly and  
it looks like it's in 25 minutes. Okay. Well, I  plan to go for around an hour today. That was kind   of my thought process. Depending on rules will  result in a note. There's no live stream, huh?  
NYT Dealbook Summit. I don't see a live stream.  You are correct. Oh, Mr. Beast going viral. Six  
watching by the New York Times. It just popped up.  There's only six people on this. Oh, he's speaking   right now. He is speaking at this moment in time.  You can look on New York Times. Um, for some  
reason I do not see the subtitles though on this.  So we will definitely monitor this. But just going   across Feastables, if he says Feastables does  that count? I would have to think so. Challenge is  
probably a decent one. I want to see Hustle go all  in on a trade. Not on a mention market for sure.   There will be times I'm willing to go, you know,  all in on a certain trade, don't get me wrong.
So, I think this is fine because it's on  YouTube. So, I have it here, but I don't   have closed captioning on. So, I'm watching Mr.  Beast talk at this currently, but I don't have,  
there's no subtitles. So, Gorilla's the Kalshi  Quant. Yeah, he's putting reels out on his   Instagram about prediction markets. The guy's  a Chad. If you want to trade live right now,  
oh, he Trump does have an announcement  today. That is also correct. Let's go   see here. It has to be. What will  Trump say during his announcement?
Let's see here. I mean, does anyone know what  this announcement's about? So, I'm not super   into the political mentions. Whenever I first got  on prediction markets, I really tried my hardest  
to find an edge, but it was definitely not my  market. Yes. Yes. Jesus. Millions, billions,   trillions. My economy. Best economy. Businesses  grow in the billions every day. It's going to  
be great. It's going to be fantastic. Yes, we  employ so many people. We give so many a boost to   the economy. They have the live thing at the top  here on Kalshi. Given this is the first stream,  
I know you're allowed to. I'm just I want to  skate by the rules and make sure that we don't   go too crazy on the first one. Once I get more  guidance here though, I'm pretty sure we can watch  
these Trump things together and also navigate  the mentions together for future streams. So,   I'm nearly 100% that that's allowed, but there's  definitely things that aren't allowed. Like,   we can't sit here and watch a sports game and live  trade it or whatever the case is. Um, yeah. So,  
he's definitely going right now. Um, Sleepy Joe at  45. The things that Trump actually ends up saying  
randomly. Um, it is kind of funny. Trillion is  free money. They seem to think so. Trillion at   89%. I mean, should I go in on the trillion?  I don't know, bro. Live a little. I mean,  
it's on top of Kalshi and it's just me watching  another YouTube. However, I don't know. Trillion is probably free money. I mean,  this guy sure does love his economy. So,  
he said EV and gasoline. Trillion. Maybe  trillion dollar industry. EV gasoline.   I'm not sure. I don't know. 89% is just  kind of juicy for me to Now it's at 88,  
87. I could probably at least pull it up here  and get some closed captioning. Hang on. Trump   live announcement. Sean, what's going on,  my friend? Good to see you on the stream.
We're potentially live mention marketing  on Trump's announcement. It's the car   industry is a very interesting  business. I want to think okay,  
secretary transport. It's about transportation  or something. Trillion now at 80%. Okay. Okay.   I don't know. Maybe we have an angle here.  I mean, how does this guy not say trillion?
I mean, is he going to say China? Fake news? Why  would he say fake news in this announcement? I put  
50 on fake news at 61 cents. Why would he say fake  news? He's talking about the automotive industry. Why? I'm just not going to go heavy on  these because it's mention markets and  
politics and I really have no idea.  So, totally not my thing. However,   but it's just an announcement. Is it  a press conference or an announcement?
You know what, Paola, Ran watches Trump  and Pal speak on his shows all the time,   right? All right. It's on the top  of the Kalshi thing. We're going in.
I'm living a little. Here we go.
California communist. He said, well,  
he clowned Biden there and he didn't say  fake news. This is a fantastic development.
He said trillion. It's that's like free money  anytime he speaks. Millions, trillions, billions.
Do we think he says China is because he  said he's talking about the car industry,   EV, gasoline. Dang it. He just said China.
Oh, that was rough timing. I literally... Dang. I would have gone in on China  if I could have chat GPT real quick.
Trillions. I can make it happen. One second.
Let me exit my screen share. I literally said  I think he might say China and then boom said   China and then you guys couldn't hear it. That's  a bummer. Okay. All right. Hold on. Technical   error. Share screen window. To share audio, share  a tab instead. Okay, you got it. Sharing tab.
[Trump Clip Begins] ...very importantly to afford  high quality cars. In other words, we're bringing   automobiles back and the manufacturing  of automobiles back into this country.   We lost 52% over the years. 52% of our automobile  manufactories all over the place. Now they're all  
opening up. They're being in most cases they're  being knocked down and new ones are being built   in their place. And a big beneficiary is the state  of Michigan, but South Carolina, even states that   didn't do too much with the automobiles, they're  opening up plants. Amazing. So between automobile  
plants, AI plants, and plants of every other  nation, really every other type, including chips.   We're going to have a big percentage of the chip  marketing, not because of the CHIPS Act, which was  
horrible and ridiculous, where we just gave these  companies billions and billions of dollars. They   just kept the money. But because of what we did  with tariffs, they have to build here. Otherwise,   they're gonna have to pay tariffs. They won't be  able to do business in the United States. And we  
are bringing we're going to have a big percentage  of the chip industry. As of about a year ago,   two years ago, we had none. And now we're going  to have a very big percentage when it all finishes   out. So, I'd like to ask Secretary Duffy to speak  and then Mr. Farley and then Pelosi and Huckabee  
and Castor and also we're going to ask some of  our political leaders to speak because let me   tell you they went out of their way. This was not  easy. People were brainwashed. Fake news is in the   clear. This is a Green New Scam and people  were paying too much for a car that didn't  
work as well. And now they're going to have a  great car that's going to be environmentally   friendly but it's going to cost you a lot  less and it's going to work great. All of   the nonsense is being taken out of the cars. So,  uh, Secretary Duffy, could you say a few words?
Thank you, Mr. President. So, yesterday at the  cabinet meeting, the president fake billion.   This is great. And the way that Democrats  talk about affordability choice, Mr. Trump,   today is a perfect example of that. So, these CAFE  standards used what was contrary to the law. The  
Congress set a rule that says you have to look at  combustion engines. Biden and Buttigieg actually   did an analysis using Buttigieg. I'm sorry Judge.  This is where it's a risk after another personal  
know that's fake news is completely unattainable.  So they spent a lot of money on technology trying   to meet the unattainable standard driving up the  cost of a car number one. And then number two, if   they couldn't meet the unattainable standard, they  had to trade part where we get absolutely costing  
billions of dollars and again driving up the price  of the car. What Democrats were doing were not   making cars more affordable. They're making them  less affordable which means they're going to be  
safer on the roads because of all the great new  technology we have that save lives. So we'll have   less death on American roads. These rules are  going to allow the automakers to make vehicles   that Americans want to purchase, not vehicles that  Joe Biden and Buttigieg wants them to build. Um,  
which is important. Um, but also this is important  for American jobs. The more cars we sell, the   more jobs we have in this country. And so this is  jobs. This is freedom. And this is common sense,   Mr. President. So, thank you for your leadership.  And I appreciate what the Senate did with the big  
bill is it's something it's amazing wait till  the people see the benefits and the lower taxes   that they're going to have lower regulations.  So how about Ford Mr. President and Secretary,  
all the important lawmakers here,  competitors, today is a victory,   common sense, and affordability. We're very proud  of Ford to be the number one. I don't want to move   on off of it. Vehicles we sell we make in our  country, right? And we never left unlike many  
of our competitors. We're the number one exporter  and we have the most factory auto workers. And   this CAFE standard that is aligned with customer  demand is the right move for a lot of reasons.  
We were number two last year in EV sales. We were  number three in hybrid and we're the leading brand   for combustion. We believe that people should be  able to make a choice as you said, Mr. President,   and we will invest more in affordable vehicles.  This allows us to invest. [Trump Clip Ends]
I'm gonna move along praying that this man does  not call something fake news. Um, we're making   this step for all of you. It's a risk. This man,  one of the other things we're doing, it's separate  
from this meeting, but I think everybody here  would agree with it. Uh, if you go to Japan,   where I just left, and if you go to South Korea  and Malaysia and other countries, they have a  
very small car, sort of like the Beetle used to be  with the Volkswagen. They're very small. They're   really cute. And I said, "How would that do in  this country?" And everyone seems to think good,   but you're not allowed to build them. And I've  authorized the secretary to immediately approve  
the production of those cars. So, you'll be able  to buy them. They really are, they're actually,   some of them are really beautiful actually  if you take a look. Uh oh come don't say   it. Uh some of the Japanese companies do  a beautiful job but we're not allowed to  
make them in this country and I think  you're going to do very well with those   cars. So we're going to approve those cars.  Would you like to say something about that? Well, no just but just that he never stops  working. So even when he's on Asian time,  
he's calling me at midnight in the States. But you  he gave me the directive to clear the regulations   on this to which we have. And so if uh if Toyota  or any other company wants to make smaller,  
so they can make them in America and sell  them in America. They're really nice and less   expensive and it really gives people a chance  to have a car, you know, have a brand new car  
as opposed to a car that maybe isn't so great.  And so you car companies start thinking about   that. And I think it's going to be a tremendous  market. Please, would you like to say something?
Okay. I'm going to shut down the Trump for now and  I think we should be in the clear, but you never   know with this guy. But we were just jumping into  mention markets and he started going live. So, it  
was pretty good timing there. So, you can see how  engaging that can be if you're new to prediction   markets. Like this type of thing is so much fun  to just jump in, trade, try to find an edge on.   Obviously, if the second he started talking about  automotives, I figured why would he say fake news?  
Still hasn't come through as a win, but why would  he say fake news about the automotive stuff, about   some transition? Uh, we should have gone China,  but whatever. But one of the mention markets I   love and especially for the fact that you guys  can tell I'm a sports fan. Obviously, we talked  
about sports at the beginning as far as some  things we're taking over the next 24 hours. But   tomorrow night we have what will the announcers  say during the Dallas and Detroit football game.   So I love these especially if you're aware of  the standings or what's going on in the league,  
all that different stuff. And as you can see  here, some of them are near guarantees. Obviously,   I think that you're going to hear the word Super  Bowl, but I'm not trading that. It's at 94%. Why  
would they say Super Bowl? Detroit does have Super  Bowl aspirations. They have a, you know, really   good team. They're kind of on the struggling side  right now. And also, of course, Dallas hasn't been  
to the Super Bowl infamously in 30 years. So, I  think the likelihood they say the word Super Bowl   is pretty high, right? And saying the word safety  is usually always the case, whether they say  
safety in the term of a, you know, a player who  plays the position safety or a safety that is, uh,   you know, the two-point play in football. So they  would probably say that, but I don't like going  
that heavy on a big risk like that. As far as like  you put a $100, just for example, guys, if you put   a hundred on 98 cents that they say safety, you  win $1. Like I'm definitely not in here for saving  
account level APRs. I want to at least outdo the  mean investment account or savings account in   the US. So, what I'm liking for tomorrow and one  that I really like playing on every, you have to  
do your research first of all, but as you can  see here, let's go to ChatGPT. So, tomorrow's   game is at Ford Field. So, what I'm going to do  actually so we can see part of the process. I'm  
going to stop sharing. I'm going to reshare so I  can share my window. Since we're not listening to   Trump at this point in time, we'll go share. So,  what type of grass do the Detroit Lions play on?
So we can see here ChatGPT is a synthetic  turf called Field Turf Core previously Field   Turf Classic HD. And then if for some reason  they don't say it about the Detroit Field,  
what about Dallas Cowboys Field? So this game's in  Detroit, so this probably won't even be a factor.   But at the same time, they also play on synthetic  turf. On top of this, when players get injured,  
a lot of the times they get injured on turf.  So, just going to point this out. One of the   players on Detroit, he got ruled out for the next  four weeks. He got hurt playing on turf. So, they  
might mention the turf being an issue or just he  got his feet down on the turf, whatever the case   is for a catch. I love playing turf. Turf is one  of my favorite mention markets in football. So,  
I am going to go ahead and just put 50 to win 72.  So, that's about a 44% gain on that if we were to   take that home. So, that is one I definitely do  like as far as this game. Moving on down the line,  
we can see here there's overtime, stuffed, what a  catch, hail mary, roughing the passer, concussion   protocol. You could get nitty-gritty if a player's  on concussion protocol on a team or they just pass  
concussion protocol. There's a lot of ways  you can find some edges on these markets. I'm   just gonna take turf. Low risk, but turf usually  does pay off in games like this, especially when   both teams play on turf. I don't see a situation  where the announcers don't mention the word turf,  
at least during the course of this game. So let's  go ahead and go back to the Kalshi homepage. And   also, let's check in on our Trump position. Just,  you know, let's just see here. Portfolio. It's  
going to be interesting to see where this is now.  All right. No fake news recently trade. We bought   in at 62 or 63 cents as you can see here. 63 cents  on our position on Trump not saying the words fake  
news. And right now our position is well up. We  are trading at 80% on no, which is fantastic. So   we are looking pretty good there. But Trump just  keeps on running his mouth. I can see on my iPad  
over here. So, we are not in the clear on that  at this point in time. But it is something I am   going to be watching. And like I said, if you're  watching on YouTube and even on future shows on   Twitter, I'm going to start dropping the link down  below. You can get a free $10 for depositing 10  
and playing 10 on Kalshi using our link down below  in the description. There's one more market I want   to just take a quick look at before we start  wrapping up the show. And um also if any of you  
guys want me to look at any specific markets,  I will go ahead and do that as well. But there   is one that I thought was pretty interesting. If I  can get this to load. There we go. Should be good.
All right. So, we are going to go passing  yards leader. There we go. All right. So,   this is one I think is really interesting.  So, Dak Prescott is the favorite at 39. Now,  
these pay out well. So, when you're going  under 50% on something, let's say you play 50,   it would return you 121. So, it's over 100% gain  if you were to convert on these types of bets  
or on these types of plays. If you look here,  Drake Maye is the leader currently at 3,412. And   Dak Prescott has played one less game. So, this  is where this comes in. Dak Prescott has played  
one less game than Drake Maye. And currently only  sits 151 yards behind Drake Maye. If we look at   the schedules here, let's go to Dak Prescott.  And we should go to the Cowboys. Here we go,  
Dallas. And let's click on their schedule. We  can see here they're going to have to throw the   ball a lot against Detroit. I think the Detroit  game is going to be a high-scoring game. I think   that the Vikings defense is just not very good.  I think they'll probably have a great night here  
on offense against the Chargers. They're going  to have to pass the ball against two division   opponents and especially with Jackson Dart on the  Giants. And the fact that the Cowboys have to win   every single game to close out this season if they  want to come out on top and get into the playoffs.  
I think Dak Prescott finishes off probably the  best year of his season. I'm going to take it   50 to win 121 on Dak Prescott because a lot of  people would still be putting money on Drake Maye,  
but the big caveat to that is he's only 150 yards  ahead and he has played one extra game. And we go   look at his schedule to finish out the year and  it actually is much tougher on the opponent side.  
So we see here they have the Bills. This week is  the Patriots bye week, so they won't play. So this   week Dak Prescott should inevitably pass him in  passing yards. We see here Bills, Ravens, Jets,  
and Dolphins. The Jets and Dolphins would be games  he could definitely run it up, but let's just   say they win the next two games. They inevitably  lock up the number one seed in their conference.   So I like Dak Prescott. I really think that's a  great trade here. Um I think I already took it,  
but I'll double up if it... Oh, there we go. Okay,  so 50 to return 121. So there we go. Those are the   main plays that I am looking at right now.  Some of them play out in the next 12 hours.  
Some of them play out over the next three weeks,  four weeks, but that's the thing. You're willing   to kind of spread out what you're looking at on  timelines and stuff like that. So, just to recap,  
right now we're still actively on the no for fake  news from Donald Trump. We'll see. Hopefully,   he does not come through and say fake news. We see  what will the announcers say during the Cowboys  
and Lions game, I'm saying yes, that they will  say turf. And then in basketball tonight, I have   Cleveland, Detroit, the Knicks, and then also I  have the Miami Heat. And then for pro football  
passing yards leader this season, I am taking  Dak Prescott, which would return me over double   my money. So, is it only between those two QBs?  I mean, if we are to look at the yardage here,  
no, because you have you have Pat Mahomes, but  to be honest, the Cowboys, the Cowboys offense   is just much more high volume of passing as we  can see here. They have had similar attempts,  
but it's because KC's been having to come from  behind in a lot of games. If I was to play anyone,   it would be Pat Mahomes and Dak Prescott for sure.  And you could, that's the beauty of prediction   markets. And that's a great point to point out. If  we go look at the market here, let's say you want  
to hedge, right? You think that, okay, Pat Mahomes  could potentially lead the league in passing,   which is incredibly possible. Like that could  happen. You could put 50 here and also hedge  
out and come out on top $25 or actually yeah $25  in the green even by placing on two sides between   Dak Prescott and Pat Mahomes. And if you really  think that Drake Maye is going to hold on to it,  
50 for him returns 170. So yeah, great call  out there Gorilla on these markets. You don't   have to always be right. You can play two  different sides, especially in this scenario,  
and you can win on your ROI side, regardless  if one of your plays ends up losing. So, last   thing I'm going to do is go check on my fake news.  How are we looking on fake news? Please, Donald,  
please don't say fake news, my man. Let's see. All  right. Well, we're looking good here. Um, yeah,   we're looking good. I could offload the position,  but I'm not going to play this as a trade. It's  
our first Kalshi live stream. I want to see this  one through. I want to see if he says fake news,   which I pray that he does not. Reading some  subtitles here. I guess we could throw on the  
audio again, but we are coming towards that hour  mark. And just for the first live stream that we   are doing, we'll probably keep it under an hour.  On the future ones, we might plan them around  
things like this, themes like a Trump speech or  something like that. So that way it's just fun,   engaging, everyone's kind of throwing out their  predictions and mentions and stuff like that.   So, we will definitely kind of maybe structure  this to where I can give predictions over the  
course of a few days, but also we have a mention  market to kind of tune into, trade live, etc. But   just to recap, guys, prediction markets, this is  probably the most fun I've had in quite some time.  
Like crypto over the course of time, yes, I have  a ton of fun in crypto and I think it's one of the   most interesting industries and markets in the  entire world. I think Bitcoin is the future in  
some ways of finance, right? I think we all do if  we're watching this channel, but at the same time,   it's not always positive ROI to trade per every  single day, long and short, the market, especially  
when the market's so tricky at a point in time  like this. So, this is one of those things where   you can start finding an edge if you, you know,  know certain topics. If you, you know, want to,  
you can literally, you could have done trades on  Spotify Wrapped today on who were the top artists   of the year, who had the most streams, whatever  the case is. So, there's endless possibilities  
on these platforms for you to get involved with.  And of course, we will be doing this, like I said,   once or twice a week, just schedule depending and  also event depending. If there's a big speech like  
this, we'll definitely go live and talk about  them and trade them live. And also we'll just   have some general prediction market streams. So  guys, that is going to wrap up today. Like the   video down below and subscribe to the channel and  you can check out Kalshi in the link down below in  
the description for those of you watching on X and  YouTube. We appreciate it as always and we'll see   you on the next one. As always, trade responsibly,  stay bullish, and play well, my friends.