[00:03] show. My name is Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler. It is uh Tuesday, with Jamal Chandler. It is uh Tuesday, June 24th. We've got Wednesday. keep track of days. I'm telling it's crazy.
[00:16] >> I know. It feels like a Tuesday. >> It It is nuts. Uh time flies when you're man. How you doing? We got We got a new guy. We got a new guy in Chicago. We got a new guy in Chicago. Bulls. I'm so excited. I'm excited.
[00:29] number four pick and then we got uh Ashuda for the what 19th pick? okay. >> I'm happy, dude. He's one of the guys that I saw uh during the season and I was like I I mean I'm a Duke fan, but
[00:42] this kid's a Carolina kid, but I liked him. So, another North Carolina kid >> I mean, >> could be spicy. >> It could be. Could be. >> Yeah. The uh the Bulls are making moves.
[00:55] The Blackhawks made a trade to get uh a star defender. So, >> You had the Cubs, you had the White Socks popping off. >> Uh yeah. >> Could it be that they all are good at
[01:07] >> there was that that time earlier last year where it was like they were all 5-0 years. >> Yeah, I know. >> But uh Yeah, you you can only have a few
[01:21] >> I know. I know. It's cool. But yeah, no, it's cool, man. I mean, the Bulls got the Caleb Wilson kid. Another Caleb. How many I mean, there's going to be be confused by that. >> Like older people, you know, that Caleb
[01:34] court. [laughter] >> That Caleb Williams, going to be a lot of >> Oh my god. Lot of lot of crossover. >> Um but yeah, markets are up pre-market just a little bit. Uh kind of an inside
[01:48] day for now, but we've got Micron earnings today. Uh we've got plenty of earnings today. Uh we've got plenty of guests to join us this morning and uh I decent movement today, especially after yesterday's uh craziness. But yeah, join
[02:03] us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. We're streaming on Tasty Live. questions along the right hand side chat. We'll monitor monitor them and uh cover them as best we can. But yeah, we uh just heard that Google is going to be
[02:21] >> Yeah, I was uh Yeah. Yeah. To your point, I mean, Micron reports earnings after the close. Google just uh replaces uh Verizon in the Dow industrial uh in
[02:33] the Dow Jones Industrial Average. First change there since 2024. So, that We'll see if there's going to be a little move from Google here. Um, Errol's going to join us live from the SEO floor after the bell. And, uh, we
[02:47] have Justin Sacko of Sacko Financial. Um, apparently this dude's pretty, uh, good at talking to people about ETFs for using options for ETFs in Roth IRA accounts. So, I want to get some some good insights from him on that. We also
[03:00] course. We also are going to have Liz and TP join us. So, um, should be fun. team is going to show up with a piece. We got a lot of stuff for you. Like you said, submit those questions into the chat. We got a packed show for you.
[03:14] Should be fun. >> Yeah. Um and we do have some of these products that uh had some earnings reports yesterday actually. So uh looks Yeah. >> Uh trading at 295 pre-market.
[03:31] The up only earnings reports are over for FedEx >> Yeah. Yeah. I did some calendars in this one at the very end of the day. I kind of got into I did the three four. It seems stupid now, you know, like I feel
[03:43] so stupid calling these out after you've done them and the next morning we're here and it's like, oh gosh. But whatever. Uh these are they were actually very cheap. So I did the 340, the 345 and the 350 calendar calls and
[03:57] um they were like, you know, a buck 65, a buck 40, and a buck 14. So yeah, whole idea is hopefully uh this thing can make a move between now and next the next week. >> Yeah. And uh we do have some some other
[04:11] earnings reports. We got Nike. >> Oh, wait. We also had Cere last for last >> Oh, yeah. >> Yeah. It's not I don't think it's really doing that anymore. >> First report. Yeah, it's down 10%.
[04:23] >> Those are the only ones for last night. >> Yeah. Um but yeah, we'll see how SpaceX uh behaves over the next couple of days here, too. We got Micron, we got uh Constellation Brands next week, Nike next week. So, we're kind of at the end
[04:38] of this, but Micron has become, you know, the craziness and the uh every the feels like an Nvidia style earnings report. And uh we're actually going to break that down with an options math check uh in about 10 minutes here, but
[04:54] break. Again, join us on the YouTube channel. Throw in your trade ideas, but we're going to bring in Gus after this break. We're going to look at a couple of big movers today. You're watching Tasty Live.
[05:17] >> Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option
[05:32] against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. What does a green scratch mean? Ooh, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say [music] you, I mean me. Uh, green
[05:46] scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent [music]
[05:59] winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.
[06:20] In the world of investing, a beast lurks between the numbers. sidelines, but others saddle up [music] and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for
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[07:15] >> Welcome back to the show everyone. We've got E- Minis up 20, NASDAQ up 140 and uh Micron earnings after the close today. Could be a wild day. Uh but we got some other products moving as well. I'm joined here by Jamal and Gus. He's going
[07:30] today. >> Yeah, we got uh got the got the trending names for the day. Just some some fun stories that that could move the market the leading story for today obviously is
[07:42] the most recent meme stock, trading up about 16% in pre-market right now. They did hire a new CFO. Uh but obviously this does not quite correspond to that. Wendy's was the second most discussed stock on Reddit yesterday. Uh and as we
[07:57] head into today, 23% of Wendy's free float is currently sold short. nearing bankruptcy, down 50% in the last year, but uh that could potentially now moving up 16% create a situation where uh those those shorts have to buy some
[08:12] we call that when that happens. It's could be a short squeeze there, dare I throw around that terminology. So, uh yeah, Wendy's certainly one to to keep an eye on into today. uh could very well I I I don't want to go all the way to
[08:25] say it could become another Avis Renar situation, but uh we we could see a move in Wendy's in the next few days. >> Until they get the salad bar back, I >> Do they still do the the like Lifetime Frosty keychain thing?
[08:40] when I was in like elementary, middle school, that was that was drift. If you could just walk in there. >> That sounds great. >> Spicy nuggets are that's where they have the differentiating factor. Spicy
[08:52] >> Telling you guys though, that's that's that that man, the salad bar was the bomb. I'm telling you, everybody knows. Watch. Check the chat. If you around the salad bar, Wendy's salad bar, dude, that was that was that was the differentiator
[09:06] between McDonald's and Burger King and Wendy's. The salad bar and the Frosties. there for a little while, right? Is Yeah. Yeah. Used used to be lit, it Everything's getting getting glazed over now. Minimalism. Uh, next story to dive
[09:22] into here is Meta. Meta is uh going to get their price point on Meta Glasses down to $299. They're trying to make AI eyewear and everyday product. Uh, Zuckerberg and then, you know, last week the Snap CEO
[09:34] saying that they believe uh smart glasses to be the next evolution to computing. They want everybody in smart glasses. So, lowering the barrier to entry to $299 on those, trying to stay ahead of Google and uh Snap, as I just
[09:48] mentioned, who are rolling out similar products. Uh, Meta wants glasses. Yeah. And oh, yes, they already they already ship more than 75% of the world's smart tough to retain that market share as as
[10:00] dive into this field. So Zuckerberg doing everything he can, partnering with Kylie Jenner yesterday to roll out some some very stylish meta glasses that she designed, then lowering the price point on on the main ones to $299. You guys
[10:12] you'd entertain? >> I don't know. But it's not often you >> That is true. >> It's true. He was very excited about it, interview. He was like fumbling with the glasses.
[10:25] really excited to work with her. You can see she she she put this gem. really wanted it. >> I used to love shorting Meta and then he had like chains wearing chains all day and he's got the the flowy hair. I'm
[10:40] stock anymore. [laughter] But uh he still got it from the nerd the nerd side of things. But he was like two weeks too late. He could have had her at the Knicks game. >> Oh, for sure. That could have been
[10:55] >> Could have been baked. I wonder if that was the plan and and somebody just, you >> She could have been sitting there filming. It would have been such good. of OG and all that would have would have been great promo. Zuckerberg.
[11:07] what they call this. The hand of OG. >> Yeah, the game the game four tip in to win it. Yeah, [laughter] the hand of Chriso hear that. I'm sure it. >> I'm sure. [sighs] Um, another one
[11:22] rounding out things here. uh Proctor and Gamble, they are uh going to revolutionize Tide Pods. It seems they always uh Proctor and Gamble has had a products before they let the market disrupt their products for them. Uh so
[11:35] they are rolling out a new detergent called Tide Evo. It is a they are calling it a tile, but really it's just a little piece of fabric. It's not actually that new. These little fabric detergent patches have existed with with
[11:47] supposed to be better for cold water. Tide pods obviously sold very well. So, evolution. And let me tell you, I will be buying these because my Tide Pods cold water, and it's frustrating. So, they have addressed my concern. Good old
[12:01] Proctor and Gamble love them. I literally just had this discussion the other day. I was sitting over the uh laundry thing. What What do we call it? The cylinder filling up with water. Hot water instantly dissolves. Cold water. I
[12:15] is crazy." So, I reached my hand in there and like broke it up manually. I'm >> You're right. >> But yes, I will also be a purchaser of >> Yep. They just Yeah, they they dissolve real nice and easy. I don't know. Should
[12:29] should should be a cool thing. I'm a big Tide Pods user myself, though. I do need the the free and gentle variety. I'm a sensitive skin fellow. [laughter] >> I mean, yeah, PNG was always known as the company with the billion-dollar
[12:41] many different things that they make. There's a question from the chat. Uh, is red mustache? >> Neither are dyed. I I get I get this question often. This is this is all natural. If if I could dye them, I would
[12:55] dye them to match, not the other way. I I think it's strange [laughter] other. Uh, but no, this is this is just the the way it goes. I don't know what something like that. I I don't know what's what's happening in the gene pool
[13:09] comes. >> Nice. Yeah. I have a friend that has brown hair and an orange beard and I'm like, "How is this possible?" Yeah, we got a lot. >> I think my parents are lying to me. Like
[13:21] [laughter] that's But uh yeah, thanks Gus. Appreciate it. I think uh yeah, Meta's interesting. All these are interesting. Uh PNG >> Sounds like a good put sale. I've been looking for names like this honestly.
[13:35] I haven't done in a while. >> Yeah. And I would I would throw two more well here. Not necessarily market movers, but just things I'm excited fried apple pie after 34 years. Original 1992 fried apple pie and Applebee's
[13:50] bringing back the dollarita. Both for a limited time in July. So get get at those. Yeah. >> Well, when McDonald's brings back the Salisbury steak, I'll be all over that. I don't know why. I'm a I'm a psychopath
[14:02] apparently. Yeah. I love it. >> That's that's a McRib caliber >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Indeed. Well, thanks Gus. appreciate your contribution as always. Uh but yeah, handful of products to take a look
[14:15] at. You got Wendy's, you got Proctor and Gamble, you got Meta. Um lots going on here, but thanks for tuning in. We'll be back in about 90 seconds for a look at Micron with an options math check. You're watching Tasty Live.
[14:53] icorus. [music] Discard these feathery adornments, thy flights too vigorous. Rather garb thyself with the soft fur of the bear, and dwell in low burrows of
[15:05] the valley fair. Forsake thy previous [music] highs and perilous summit. For low I am short, so I must needs thee plummet. Oh market, I implore thee, make
[15:17] plummet. Oh market, I implore thee, make no high. [music] Like some comic fuzzy, no high. [music] Like some comic fuzzy, unclip thy bow tie. If thou dost tumble, I shall offer thee up a succulent hogy. So ye markets, remain as bearish as
[15:31] beloved yogi. Follow thee the lead of Kiplings below. And may the move be Kiplings below. And may the move be sweet as honey to Winnie the Pooh. With joy I watch descending chart lines straighten. Run down with quickness and
[15:47] sweetness like Lord Walter of Payton. Let curious traders admire thy barrenstein way. And joyfully stealing some porridge. Let us now say, sweet
[15:59] bearish market, never would I cage her, [music] but admire her drop like some terrestrial Ursa Major. Come down, ye markets, to this Silven
[16:11] Come down, ye markets, to this Silven Glade, and let the bears have their day Glade, and let the bears have their day at Tasty Trade.
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[17:01] expecting fireworks. The stock just dropped 10% yesterday in a global chip route. So the pre-earnings runup already unwound. Here's what that means for the trade. The options chain is pricing in about a 130 point move this week. That's
[17:17] 13% in either direction. The widest implied move in 2 years. Looking at the last two years of data, we got some interesting takeaways. Five of the last eight quarters, the actual move stayed inside the implied move. Buying the
[17:30] straddle lost money five of eight times, averaging a loss of about 22%. The premium seller has had the edge historically from micron earnings. However, the last few times it broke out, it broke out hard, down 16% in
[17:44] December of 2024 and up 14 1.5% in September of 2024. So, the real question September of 2024. So, the real question is whether Micron beats or not. It's really about what the mark the market's going to take in when it comes down to
[17:58] the earnings announcement in terms of earnings per share and revenue as they have the last 12 quarters in a row. With IVJ, are you the premium seller collecting rich premium on a name that usually stays contained? Or do you
[18:12] respect that fat tail risk, especially when the drop yesterday may have already options market is telling us in this edition of the options math check. So Jamal, I don't know how you feel about this, but uh market's kind of ominously
[18:29] up today. You still have a huge move implied for Micron. Uh we're up about 40 points pre-market, sitting at 1090. And uh you know, we got call skew. We got huge IV and uh 100% IV across the board
[18:44] year. >> Well, first of all, shout out to our team with those graphics. Uh it's great stuff. if we could pull that one up versus the actual moves. Uh, you know, this interesting because when I looked
[18:57] at that, I really haven't seen that data kind of altogether once in a while. But that's actually something we used to do a lot at at a uh at a prop firm. Uh, we would look at the average move over the last like four quarters and then the
[19:10] average implied move over the last four quarters and kind of come up with an where you could kind of plug in and get an idea of where a ball crush might come into and is this a good idea to buy or good idea to sell. And you know what's
[19:23] interesting as you were as you were talking I started thinking maybe this is actually one where it is probably worth selling because I don't think it's going to explode to the upside in this case. At least I don't feel. Yeah. Thank you.
[19:37] you look at it look look what stands out. The most recent one 12% on the actual move. The rest of them were kind of small, right? Um just looking at actuals the implied I mean fairly they've been fairly bid each time I mean
[19:50] they've been fairly bid each time I mean at least more than 5% expected right so moves and last time obviously made a huge move double what was expected so um I I guess I got to think that maybe this is probably worth selling. This is
[20:04] there's a near-term bias I would say because again we just had a 12 point 12% another one of those? And this is already pricing 13%. never like selling earnings, but maybe this is one of those times I do. And
[20:20] like I'm going to go in there slaying a strangle or anything like that in a $1,000 name. But maybe this is one of those, you know, times where it's it's worth going outside that expected move and maybe possibly selling something cuz
[20:33] this is one of those. First of all, I think it's probably too expensive for my typical calendar call uh 2-day to 8 day play. I don't know if that's going to be actually sell for a change, but defined risk.
[20:47] that's kind of where I'm leaning to, especially when you look at the implied points, 130 points, but then you look at July and you've got another 100 points of implied move. So, 240 points. So you could just sell an expected move July
[21:02] iron condor, probably collect 40% of the width of the iron condor and still cover another 100 points beyond the implied move this week. And I think when you when you consider the fact that five of the last eight were inside the move. Uh
[21:18] that's likely because you had such a high implied move to begin with. So, one afraid of when it comes to earnings announcements is when you have like a 3% implied move or a 4% implied move because a two standard deviation move in
[21:33] that case is a 6% move or an 8% move respectively. So, we see that every day. >> If you have a 10% or 15% implied move like you do in Micron, for you to have a two standard deviation move, you really have to have uh 20% move or 30% move in
[21:48] the actual stock price. And that's a big move. like it's it's more rare for you move. like it's it's more rare for you to see a massive chunk come out of Micron to the downside or be infused to the upside. Uh so when it comes to
[22:00] selling premium, I'm much more afraid of earnings that have a 3 or 4% implied 10 15% implied move because it's just harder for the stock to actually make a move uh and beat you. But still defined risk I think is obviously where we're
[22:15] going to go. It's a $1,000 stock. I don't like selling strangles in earnings have that gap risk like you can have a three four standard deviation move where Micron moves 300 points. It's hard to imagine but it can happen and I don't
[22:29] want to be trapped in an undefined risk position there. Uh I do think I want to lean towards that expected move iron condor for Micron like maybe an 800 780 >> looking at Yep. I going to go 20 wide as well. Yeah, I think 20 wide and then
[22:45] >> you can go up to 1,300 and change. Yeah. >> Yeah. 1300, 1320, 800, 780, collect 700 bucks, risking 1,200. So, like I said, you're picking up, you know, almost 40% you're picking up, you know, almost 40% of the width there. And then in the near
[22:59] term, just looking at these calendars, like the expected move is up to, let's call it 1,200, maybe something like an 1150 uh short 2-day long 6 day. Like, what is it what is it trading for right now
[23:11] $1,000, >> I don't think it is. [laughter] I think I looked yesterday. It's stupid. >> It's not. It's $1,800. >> And so, actually, I So, yesterday, while I was still thinking about like, you
[23:24] know, up, move big, whatever. I did do a a butterfly. I did the 12, you mentioned a butterfly. I did the 12, you mentioned 1,200. I did the 1200 1250 uh 1300 >> uh for I think like three and change or something like that. I don't remember.
[23:37] It's pretty fairly cheap considering it's 50 point wide. Yeah. Um, but I I've out to July now and selling that wide iron condor, man. I mean, you can get >> Yeah. I did it for 335 for that that uh butterfly yesterday.
[23:52] trying to do is like set up a neutral inside up. >> Uh, so I think I'm going to just follow you in that sense. So my my assumption
[24:04] is on the open I can probably get into this uh 1150 1200 1250 butterfly and do makes a lot of sense that you have a 100 point range between your longs here at
[24:20] to the upside. But if you get a move up to,00 uh 1125, 1150, like this is still going to likely be a winning trade on the on that iron condor if you get that inside move. So that's probably where
[24:34] I'll lean uh a neutral iron condor. Uh Jamal and I will likely both do that. >> And then uh kind of playing that inside up bias here with a two-day cycle
[24:46] stock. If this was a cheaper stock, I would have gone iron condor in July and then like one or two calendar spreads to with the expensive name here. >> Yep. Yeah, not expensive.
[24:59] >> Cool. Uh after the close today, Micron will re report these earnings. Uh so let the YouTube channel. Uh we'll see if we have any other Micron earnings trades. I'm sure we will. But we're going to take a quick 90 second break. We're
[25:14] noise. Chris Veio on the other side of noise. Chris Veio on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[27:56] Greek to you. Well, guess what? Millions of people speak Greek, so you've [music] got no excuse. Here's your alphabet. Theta is time decay. Time itself has value in the options world, and that value slips away the closer you get to
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[29:20] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. We just talked about Micron. Did a little analysis of the options implied volatility. We're likely leaning into maybe an iron condor there with a smattering of a butterfly. But Micron
[29:34] isn't the only product here uh that has moved over the last couple months. AMD has gone from 200 up to 520ish. And uh we've got some interesting And uh we've got some interesting options activity here. And uh on this
[29:49] going to take a look with our very own Chris Veio. Chris, how you doing? >> Uh I'm I'm doing better than gold is this morning, that's for sure. >> That's about all I can say. It's pretty It's pretty bad out there. But we're
[30:04] focused on Micron uh today. It's the semiconductors and the spotlight because of course yesterday was a pretty big sell-off after the news uh out of Korea following SKH Highix's plans to change their production in the future towards
[30:17] commodity DRAM. Um and I I see this SKH Highix desire to go for US IPO as well here overnight which brings up as I put in the morning note the George Soros attract more capital. More capital increases supply. More supply brings
[30:33] see that play out in real time. But we're talking about AMD today. We spent recently. There's been some interesting activity on the options tape. And so Jamal, as we usually ask here on Signal versus Noise, what's real and what's
[30:47] just speculation? Um yesterday [clears throat] afternoon, AMD was making fresh all-time highs, touching a little bit over 560 here. In a 9-minute window, right as the stock was touching those all-time highs, two put buyers
[30:59] stepped in in a fairly reasonable size. Um, same strike, $540. One expires in 2 days, 13.6 million in put premium. The other expires in September, 4.3 million.
[31:11] rest of their book. They could be long AMD here and they're hedging off the rest of their position. But these are fairly sizable prints to go across the tape. So, when we take a look at what's going on here, uh, uh, you know, uh,
[31:24] across the tape, um, by Tuesday morning, we're talking about what, another 1.3 million in puts hitting the July 497 and a half. So, you have about $19 million in put premium spent um at the Monday highs into Tuesday's session. I'm not
[31:38] seem like speculation to me. It definitely feels like a signal of some constellation Jamal of the news of uh WSDC, Western Digital, the parent company of SanDisk, having spun them out last February, abandoning their entirety
[31:52] of their position in a private sale earlier this week. Not bad gains for the work that they put in over the past 60 months. I think like $5,700% during that window. I digress though. U we've seen a stock in AMD go from about $133 to over
[32:08] $500 in 12 months. So it's no longer is the story good, right? Are we going to see another double, triple, 5x from here? The odds of that are probably low. It's how much of this story is already priced into the current share prices. So
[32:22] There's a lot of fundamental data out of money moving around. OpenAI has recently committed to an additional 6 gawatt of AMD GPUs. Meta has committed another six. Uh Lisa Sue, the CEO, says
[32:37] that each gigawit is worth doubledigit billion. So um AMD as the number two chip company in the world clearly has a fantastic narrative going on around it right now. But the valuations here are perhaps one of the reasons why when we
[32:50] see this cost of capital going up, 2-year rates increasing, traders are starting to get a little warm under the collar. AMD is not looking like a micron where it has uh you know something like a 50 trailing PE and a 10 forward PE.
[33:04] a 50 trailing PE and a 10 forward PE. AMD is looking at a a 181 right now. 181 trailing PE and its forward PE is checking in at That's pretty steep. And in fact,
[33:18] actually it's uh it's its PE right now is 170.62 with a forward P of 39. So Micron. It's a lot. It's a lot more stretched than some of its competitors. Right now, the problem for the stock is it has everything priced in. Um, it's
[33:33] got 100 IVR. Its volatility is through the absolute roof. So, if we get a weak micron print today, you have to imagine that there's going to be a big knock on within this print. You're not buying puts that expire in 2 days at this kind
[33:47] of size unless you're trying to protect an existing position, Jamal. And if can't tell us that scarcity exists and they retain their pricing power, the entire sector is going to get whacked again given the recent news flow. So, uh
[34:01] legitimate noise here. There's signal within the recent options flow around >> Yeah, I think it's signal in that um you know you're seeing some put buys in a very expensive name, but I I I think it's somewhat noise in a way as far as
[34:16] the size, right? Like it's not like, you know, for me the level set now has been the huge uh Intel print that you saw a couple weeks ago, 240 million. [laughter] the signals, dude, I I think those are big signals. So I I think this
[34:30] that they're they're making these trades further in their near near term, but in bit noise. >> I love it. Well, thanks, Chris. We will uh we'll ponder this. We'll see if we can get a little that actually I I like
[34:44] the hedge like throwing on a downside hedge in AMD to play for Micron without the IV. I think that makes a lot of sense. Uh but yeah, appreciate you Chris. We will see you later on today and uh yeah, I'm I can't get the hand of
[34:57] but uh >> hand of that, too. Yeah. >> Uh but yeah, E- Mini is kind of selling >> Uh but yeah, E- Mini is kind of selling off here down only up 13. NASDAQ up 86
[35:09] down the Russell kind of chopping around. Bitcoin flat, ETH flat. Yeah, I guess the the story here is crude oil selling off 3 and a half%. Uh gold and silver, gold down 3 and a half%, silver down 5%. Hate to see that. Uh cuz I have
[35:24] a year-long position in silver apparently uh with 100 shares and a uh >> Got 100 shares. Yeah. 87, right? >> It's a brand shiny new 100 shares. Uh, so I'm going to have to make some adjustments there. But yeah, we uh we
[35:39] want to join us on the YouTube channel, we're streaming live there. Just throwing your trade ideas and questions along the right hand side chat. Uh, let us know what you think of Micron earnings. We've got plenty of time for
[35:51] some trade ideas there. Um, but yeah, I think we we're we're focused on precious metals. We're focused on energy and uh we'll be taking a look at some tech stocks, namely Micron and AMD. the rest of the day. Uh but yeah, what what else
[36:07] >> Um two things actually. Uh one, I mentioned it a little while ago uh while we were waiting around in the green room here, but um uh you know, everybody's talked about DRAM, right? Uh more recently, the ticker DRAM, which is um
[36:20] um it's like a memory ETF. Well, apparently they're they're introducing a two times DRAM. As if you didn't have enough exposure uh to to tech names, coming. I think RAM, I think it might start trading today, either today or
[36:33] saw it a little while ago. And then this is a ways off, but I I retweeted this uh this morning when I saw it. Uh SK Heinings is going to have a US up uh listing soon. So, you know, that's that's the uh Korean um that that's a
[36:46] market. We don't have access to it here, but now they're going to make an ADR uh for it. So, there's just more and more exposure coming to the semiconductor heard a lot about, especially when you're talking about overnight trading
[37:01] those names. You probably heard about what happened in the Korean stock market days ago which led to us kind of selling off. So this it's a really big name and it's going to be July 10th. So it is a ways off, but that's something that
[37:17] people are going to be talking about a lot really soon. Yeah. I think uh with all these new listings and the fear initially with SpaceX was like there could be this liquidity drain on a lot of other products. Um, and we talked
[37:31] about this yesterday. It just seems like you have these these new listings you have these these new listings without any kind of substantial foundation really. It's just like these these products are coming out for
[37:43] speculation uh more than anything else. So, yeah, speaking of SpaceX, we've got uh down four points pre-market, still chopping around that 150 level. Uh Tim
[37:56] Knight was talking about this yesterday, how he's he doesn't want to see it go down below 150. I think you could see some some panic selling if that's the case. But this thing's going to be super volatile. Uh don't get us wrong. I mean,
[38:09] the implied volatility being near 100%, over 100% in some cycles tells you especially when you look further out in time like the end of this year, you've time like the end of this year, you've got a 65 point implied move based on
[38:24] current implied volatility, which is uh about half of the stock price, just under half of the stock price. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing fly around. Uh we actually did get some new positions on in there. Uh I bought
[38:38] an upside butterfly in July, the 160, 180, 200 yesterday. Uh that was $3 and change, which felt just too cheap for an upside play considering it's 20 points wide. Risking 300 to make 1,700 if you pin it perfectly. We're not looking to
[38:53] do that. But even if you do get a move from 150 to 170, 180, that's going to be a $3 $400 winner easy. Uh and then got into a long-term Super Bowl after chatting with Gus uh about getting into
[39:07] some of these longer term leaps. And you know, we don't typically do this. We don't always do stuff like this, but if you're trying to buy premium and you're trying to if you're trying to buy a call specifically with uh, you know, low
[39:20] going to be able to do that with LEAP options. You can see 70% IV, even the high 60s if you go further out in time relative to the near-term IV, which is 50% higher. Uh, and you can see there's plenty of implied volatility premium.
[39:34] And, uh, you know, if you're trying to buy premium, it's really tough to do if you get what you pay for is what I like to say when it comes down to uh call option premium. But I expect this to
[39:47] have the same kind of behavior as like Bitcoin or volatility products where if to see an increase in implied volatility. You're going to see an and that just helps the call option explode. So I sold a put to finance it.
[40:00] So I sold the 125 and uh bought the 300 for like a $300 credit and that's in a 560day cycle. So longterm, if we get up to 200, 250, this trade will be golden. >> Might have to consider that myself. >> Yeah. Uh we do have a special guest with
[40:17] us coming on the line. We got Liz. Liz, good morning. >> Great. How are you? Very good. >> Today seems like a more calm day than I world. I mean, we are giving up a little bit of a little bit of the gains from
[40:31] this morning, but we're about to open unchanged is my guess. But it's a little it? >> It feels like it. Yeah. Well, yeah, seemingly on the surface, but there are some interesting things happening. We've
[40:43] silver move, and the oil move to the downside. I know you like metals. I was like, you know what? I'm going to buy some gold. I just did an MGC outright futures too often, but I do. This is an old reference, but that's
[40:58] gold, Jerry, because that is [laughter] that's a Seinfeld reference for all of same thing this morning. I I bought Well, I just I I sold a put spread in >> Wait, what's Seinfeld? [laughter]
[41:12] >> Well, well played, Mikey. Well played. someone about music and I I was like, "Yeah, Blink182 is playing." They're like, "Who's Blink182?" And I was like, "I can't talk to you anymore. [laughter]
[41:24] I can't do this." Um, but no, yeah, it's been a crazy move in gold. Uh, what a what a reversal their hands on gold and now everyone's like, "Oo, can't touch that thing with a
[41:36] >> No, I like this though. I really do like this. So, looking at gold right now, you opportunity to do things. I I this morning I did the 3,800 3780 put spread in GC because you're still I mean if you're looking at this I did it in the
[41:51] you're looking at this I did it in the 34day cycle um just just before it turns to the next future. I went to the 3,800 cuz I love round numbers and I did it 20 points wide. So yeah 3800 3780
[42:05] >> 500 bucks. >> So I mean it's a good return on capital when you look at this. getting $4, four almost $5 and putting up. Now, it's a little confusing because in the futures you're only putting up $837 to do it due
[42:18] to the span margining, but the risk in this trade, the real risk is the distance between. So, you have $1,500 in risk, but the span margin gives you a of room to be wrong. >> Yeah, I like this. I'm going to follow
[42:30] you in this. I'm going to do upside only just because I just bought this future. >> Oh, you bought a GC. Oh, you bought Did you buy MG? I bought an MGC contract. >> Yeah, >> there you go.
[42:43] micro crude where you you buy a micro crude and you sell a call spread in the main crude contract. So, uh yeah, I like that, too. Little little covered call >> And and you know what? I I think I'm becoming uh worse and worse as I get
[42:57] older, but I really do like being able to trade before the bell rings. So, I love futures options contracts and I [laughter] love the S&P like a true person who's in bed at 6:00 p.m. >> I get up so early to work out and it's
[43:10] been it's I've only had futures options contracts up until this point and now >> I didn't know this. Wait, what's the is it the same thing every morning? Do you got certain body groups you hit?
[43:22] >> Oh, I've been working out every morning at 5 a.m. since since the day since I day I do something different. So it'll be like cardio one day and then lifting the next. But I have a tonal. This this segment is sponsored by Tonal. Do you
[43:35] >> No. >> Is that the thing that just on the wall? >> It's on the wall, but it's weights. So it adjusts to my body. But now you got to keep in mind I also have a six foot 6 foot seven son who can lift. And he went
[43:47] under my profile one time and I was like pinned underneath the bar because he can >> Yes. >> Yeah. Those are I I actually like those. Those are super efficient. Um, they kind of remind me of like a Bowlex on
[44:01] steroids. That seems right. >> They're great for apartments, Mike. I'm they're good for small spaces cuz you get a full gym lift. All the weights Something crazy. >> Damn.
[44:13] >> No. No, >> it does. It's not the mirror. >> The mirror was freaky. >> That's the one with LeBron James. >> Was it commercial with LeBron James? Yes, total change.
[44:26] >> Okay. And I did kind of glance at the chat. I do want to address this if morning? And I will give you the exact strikes that I did. So, um I I scalped already, but the one that I'm left with right now, and this is just it's kind of
[44:41] to feel the market out. Sometimes it's the zero day, I'm in the um 73 put spreads. 7315 7305. So, pretty far down. 7315, not not
[44:53] 7305. So, pretty far down. 7315, not not 50. Yeah. So 73 7315 7305. So just $10 wide and that is unchanged right now, but I did scalp in and out of a couple the monies this morning, >> but that it's fun. I'm an absolute
[45:06] >> Yeah, I mean these markets are are flying around. We do we have global trading hours with S&P now, so you can do this pre-market, postmarket stuff. Uh and I think this is just the beginning. I think the pattern day trading rule
[45:18] going away kind of opened the door for a lot of this uh this extended trading hours to be uh brought to us. So I think S&P equities a lot of the bigname tech stocks you'll have you'll have pre-market trading postmarket trading uh
[45:32] >> I mean I really hope so because I wanted it was funny because I'm so you know I got the GC features on and I have S&P on. I wanted to sell aggressive puts in guys were talking about it. I want to
[45:44] can't do those. I can't do those until 8:30. I actually tried to press the I want to sell very aggressive. I'm going to sell two-day puts in SpaceX until I get put the stock. So, this is my go-to move if I do want the stock. I
[45:57] sell the 55s. >> Yeah, >> the 155s. And I'm going to keep doing this lather, rinse, repeat until I get aggressive calls against it in the Wheel of Fortune that I don't know that SpaceX
[46:09] is going up, but I want to be in it. And I do like the premium associated with, you know, $5 in two days. Mhm. >> So, the wheel of fortune, is this a like selling at the money and then you're selling like at or within the expected
[46:23] premium. >> I'm going to get super aggressive with sell that aggressive put until I get put the stock. Hopefully, I never do, but get put that stock, I'm gonna sell aggressive calls until they take it away
[46:36] repeat. Because if you look at that premium in SpaceX, >> now it is a lot. The buying power effect is 7500. I get that. But in two days you get 500 and then in two days if I keep continuing selling the call and doing
[46:50] things like that that if you look at that return on capital it's pretty good. >> Oh yeah. It's wild. I mean five even $5 on a $150 stock for two days >> Yeah. It's crazy. >> So that's why I'm I'm just trying to
[47:04] because I don't know that that premium is always going to be there. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Maybe he's going to fold Tesla into it, maybe he won't. We'll see. Yeah, I like it. >> Yeah. I mean, I was thinking about this
[47:16] this morning and um you know, [clears throat] just like how if you can how people were talking about Tesla at the time and it's like this company's a joke and there just all the negative sort of feelings about it and I feel
[47:30] like this one is kind of dealing with the same thing. But I mean, you know, he's he's got a proven track record of being efficient with companies. I um >> I I I think this this has been more
[47:42] buy it right now before there's a there's a low that comes at 75 or before it eventually bounces and has some crazy move. I think I think that's asking here underneath the surface, right? Like what's the stock going to be
[47:56] really. Nobody knows, you know. No, but Jamal, that's what that's why I'm going to do that's why my my strategy in this is going to be nimble and aggressive with the option premium because when that's the case, I mean, if if this is
[48:09] the case, I'm going to have about $10 to play with every four days, right? So, selling the calls and bouncing back and forth, it it gives me a good it gives me right. I think it could go down to about 75. And if that's the case, I'll follow
[48:23] premium. Yeah. Well, I'm going to be poised to bounce when it is ready to >> Yeah. And even if it even if it doesn't, you're still, like you said, you have 10 a short call if you assume you're getting like five bucks and five bucks
[48:37] days. And then you look at like the 8day. Just looking at the difference 8day. Just looking at the difference between the 155 uh here and the 155 and the 8day, you're going to pick up at least $2 $300 every time you roll uh as
[48:50] they open up these expirations. So yeah, I like it a lot. I like it. >> It's a great I mean and that's my go-to move. If I get pretty aggressive, if I have to take the stock, it is I kind of like that and it's it's very easy for me
[49:04] that it's non-thinking. I can open it up, sell the put. If I if I open it up immediately sell that aggressive call. So, it's pretty that's pretty >> I like it. What I'm seeing about you is you like doing near-term because it
[49:16] makes you stay active versus like going out further out and kind of forgetting >> You'd like to be a lot more active. >> Stay active. That's correct. >> Well, yeah. I mean you and the nice thing about that is you get uh you get
[49:29] all that implied volatility value like you look at the 2-day reflecting in 11 point implied move you look at the 23-day 10 times more time not 10 times more of an expected move only three two and a half times more of an expected
[49:43] move so you will always see this heightened IV in the near term and uh seller so I like it >> absolutely absolutely quick 90 second break. We'll be back on the other side of it. We got what 10
[49:58] see you then. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[51:42] the show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. E- mini is up eight. NASDAQ up Jamal. E- mini is up eight. NASDAQ up 60. The Dow down 100 points. The Russell up two. Bitcoin kind of unchanged down 450. ETH down 8 points. But the story of
[51:56] 450. ETH down 8 points. But the story of the day so far has been gold and silver and crude oil for that matter. All of them are down around 3 4 5%. So uh it could be a wild day here with energy products tanking and the uh equities
[52:11] kind of chopping around. But I want to hear what Liz has to say. We have her on the line. Uh again, Liz, good morning yet again. me. I do like the intro every time I come in. [laughter]
[52:25] >> This is getting fun. I like it a lot. Absolutely. Um so yeah, this morning I Micron, but I was going to say you guys should order Wendy's for lunch today considering that >> every spicy the OG spicy chicken
[52:37] >> Yeah. What about that salad bar, Liz? What about it? Oh, that was back in the >> That's in the business. >> Oh, jeez. So good. Yeah. Apparently, um, Gus on earlier talking about it. I was just noticing it's up to $8.30
[52:53] pre-market. Experiencing. >> I mean, I'm kind of laughing about this cuz I'm not trading Wendy's, but it is on the top movers list. [laughter] >> Oh, 100%. Well, it's crazy. He said that it was the second most talked about
[53:05] stock on Reddit. Uh, which is nuts. What? Okay. So, let me ask you this from that perspective on Reddit, right? So, I I do think that Reddit is a lot of people chatting about things that and I I'm paraphrasing here, but they want to
[53:19] maybe get rich quick. So, a lot of times on Reddit, you're looking at lowerpriced big topic on there, but everybody, you know, when GME was there or these these lowpric products that or AMC or all those when they became the meme stocks,
[53:32] it's almost they gravitate Reddit gravitates towards low price get-richqu stocks. Yeah, 100%. >> No, you're right. I mean, 100%. Yeah. that. >> Really? I just
[53:44] why people are looking at it and I get why people are talking about it because people to play, for lack of a better term. who going to call you up and ask you, "Hey, should I get into Wendy's right
[53:56] I'm like, "Oh my god." I mean, if you >> standard answer, I say nothing. Whenever was like, "Hey, trading is like a snowflake. Everybody's got a personal in it or not. >> I like it. Yeah. I mean, we'll see.
[54:10] snowflake. No, we're not >> It really is. It's [laughter] It's saying like >> they're individual. It's almost like you think it's like asking a personal question cuz you don't know how much
[54:23] capital I have, what else I have, what I want to do, or what my attempt is. When you ask, "What should I get into?" That's why I like it when you can just bring up a symbol. Like, I watched you guys today. Amazing job, by the way. But
[54:35] different. If somebody talked about something, it's almost just like they're bringing the symbol to your attention and then Jeral's going to trade a call everybody can do their own thing with it. It's just you bring an you bring a
[54:48] it their own. >> Yeah, exactly. And um it's funny because we were we were talking about things the other day and this idea of whether or not to like bounce uh the idea off of somebody else. But I think that's one of
[55:01] seasoned traders don't always really do that especially when you've been around the way of trading and you know Mike has a way of bias in trading and I have a That's the great thing about options and futures or whatever. You can combine
[55:15] >> we just all did something different in gold, right? Like even though there was similar ideas, similar long deltas, but we did it in different ways. And so like how that works. >> Yes. And when asked me if I should get
[55:28] into something, all they know how to do is buy the stock. Buy the stock or sell thing." >> Yeah. This is uh this is the hot topic. >> Well, good question. We were discussing
[55:40] >> Yeah, I think it's uh it's setting up for obviously a huge implied move. under 140 points on a $1,100 stock up 40 points pre-market. But uh yeah, I think we're both leaning towards just as
[55:53] still have heightened implied volatility about 20 percentage points higher than about 20 percentage points higher than August and September here. Uh and as you go down the line, you see you see it drop off. So I think iron condor in July
[56:07] and then something with a slightly upside bias in the two-day. So, we were looking at like an iron condor paired with a 50 point wide butterfly. Uh oh. >> And that would we would give up a little bit of credit with the uh iron condor,
[56:21] the expected move. I think we're looking at $800 and 1300 to the upside. Uh you pick up, you know, $800 for that iron condor and then you can give up some for
[56:35] >> Yeah, you're financing the you're financing the butterfly with the iron condor. It's not bad. I was actually hoping I I Googled this this morning and shame on me, I should have known this, what the percentage of micron was in the
[56:47] S&Ps. Um, just because, you know, you'll get a little bit of movement there. And to my to much to my chagrin, it was only like 1%. Which, you know, those bigger higher. I thought there could be some kind of not arbitrage situation, but
[57:00] since the S&Ps are open later, now they're trading till 4. There's wait until more more of the heavyweights come in. Micron's only 1% 1.83 83 of the S&P. >> Yeah, I feel like the S&P is more flat
[57:13] relative to something like the NASDAQ. Uh, but I think Chris brought out a really good point. If you're trying to trade Micron with a proxy product, AMD could be that product. Uh, you still have heightened implied volatility in
[57:27] nearly as or sorry, AMD, but not nearly as much as Micron, of course, because as much as Micron, of course, because Micron is the uh direct earnings report. But still, if you wanted to trade uh AMD to the upside or downside, if you think
[57:41] Micron's going to move, AMD is going to move with Micron. I'd be shocked if it >> I'd be I'd be shocked if it didn't. Do you think Micron's going to save us? Is Micron going to save save us all? This market?
[57:53] market? >> Uh history says probably not. Uh it's been inside the move five of the last eight quarters. So, and I don't know. I going to rocket ship to the upside,
[58:06] especially this market feels a little weak. And I I feel like that although we like when you have a weak market, you have a harder time for these products to just break out to the upside. >> And hey, we watched two this morning.
[58:18] What was it? CDRE and FedEx that had earnings beat estimates and they're >> So, it really doesn't it doesn't necessarily matter what the numbers say. >> FedEx is bouncing back up, though. It was below 300 premarket. Yeah. And now
[58:31] 307. Oh, this is good. [laughter] >> Where your You have call calendars at >> Yeah. 340, 3:45. You know, I did see it. That's part of the reason why I did it. before it actually was down just like that after earnings and then it rallied
[58:44] >> I think if you know, the market rallies, we could get some help. But to your down, >> CBRS is down. You know, the other thing I was just looking at because I I saw on Twitter somebody said that uh Brent
[58:56] crude went into contango and if you look at oil Yeah. And if you look at oil, that. >> Yeah. guys. So, that is interesting to me. Something to keep an eye on. The other
[59:10] Kardashians right now, like I always do with my daughter. You guys, it's Amazon Prime Day. [laughter] Amazon Prime Day. >> Amazon Prime Day. >> You guys, she hates when I do that. [laughter]
[59:24] They hate when we do a lot of stuff. >> I know. I know. [laughter] [clears throat] Prime Day, but now I don't know, not so much. They have two one in the fall as well? >> Yes, there is. There's two Amazon Prime
[59:37] take advantage of Amazon Prime Day, so I should be I should be in this stock as >> I think we kind of we might have messed it up on a personal note cuz like >> There's a bell. >> Open bell. And and we're spinning out of
[59:50] >> Chopping around here. NASDAQ just ticked red. Uh popping around. Big big moves red. Uh popping around. Big big moves here. NASDAQ down 510. Uh maybe selling off a little bit too. Maybe we see the equity market follow suit with the rest
[01:00:05] of the energy sector. Uh at least just a little bit. But yeah, NASDAQ down 20 points. E- minis chopping up four points. So we'll see what happens. But >> I'm going to sell the 15. >> What do you guys What do you guys think
[01:00:19] about Google joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average? it. I [laughter] think we're officially all getting older if Google is joining what I think. >> Does that mean and and I don't I really
[01:00:31] Beckio later because I feel like he's he's the prime example for this. Does or can it be in everything? >> Leave what other? No. No. There's >> it can just be [laughter] it can just be. So So we are all proud. We are going
[01:00:45] matter what because you >> you can belong to multiple golf clubs. You know what I mean? Damn. [laughter] >> That's a good comparison. >> Yeah. I mean, I like this. I like the setup here for Google. If if we're going
[01:01:00] to see uh the market feel a little weak here and Google's up 1.4% and also off all-time highs. Uh I kind of like the idea of a diagonal spread where the long
[01:01:12] option is in the earning cycle or past the earning cycle. That way you can buy in premium, but you hold on to that premium because it's in the earning cycle. You can sell the July against it, get all of that extrinsic value, and
[01:01:24] pick up a lot more premium. You look at the value of the 370 in July, it's trading for four bucks. The 370 in one cycle one week later is trading for almost double that. Uh $7, we'll call
[01:01:38] it. So, I like this setup. 1,700 bucks for a 20 point wide. you have no upside risk. You can make $400 $500 on this thing if you get a rally up to 370. Um, and then if not, you can always roll
[01:01:51] more premium reduced basis closer to 1,200 bucks, 1300 bucks. So, I think I'm >> I like that setup a lot. I actually like that you have recourse in the fact that great. But if it doesn't, you got that earning earnings premium that you can
[01:02:06] >> I'm pulling the mic here. I'm selling the in the money put in MCL in uh the July selling the 70 strike put. I also sold a 55 put in SLV. So little put
[01:02:19] >> You're so you're okay. Now we just talked about Brent crude um Brent crude in the curve and so you you guys are still permables and in oil. I wouldn't I don't even know if I'm a permable. I just feel like you're
[01:02:35] selling I I'm selling it in um the July 22 days July 16. >> Yeah, I think it's really interesting that we we are getting this completely flat curve now. Uh I think this this hurts USO the most because USO was a
[01:02:52] product that just ripped higher because we were in such a steep backwardation went from 70 up to 150 and now you're seeing it crumble because uh a lack of backradation is not good for something like USO because USO is a a fund that is
[01:03:07] made up of futures products where they have to continuously roll. So, if they don't have the benefit of rolling into a backradated curve where it kind of keeps that price propped up, now you could see this thing retreat back to the 70s. Uh,
[01:03:20] oldfashioned drag because you're rolling into the other features, it's going to used to see in like UNNG, which I haven't looked at in years. >> Oh my god, I hate that name. >> I know. We had uh we had a viewer
[01:03:33] UNG in his uh he's like, "I've got so much UNG in my IRA." I was like, "Oh my god, no. That's got to drag. This is >> I hate getting those damn K I used to hate getting those damn K1's from UNNG. It's like Oh, these things are so
[01:03:47] >> Hey, look at this. Something happened. Something just broke the damn opener up >> look at that. >> It's Wendy's. It's what it is. >> Uh >> my favorite part about the platform is
[01:04:00] we have the the logos. So, you can see Wendy's little face here uh on the left >> Dave's daughter. >> Love it. But yeah, huge move here. And I mean, as much as we as much as we can't say, uh, you know, we got to buy this
[01:04:16] everyone's talking about it, everyone's trying to squeeze this thing, little shot trade. >> Maybe it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I agree with you. If it if it's a short squeeze, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy
[01:04:29] >> Ooh, gold's bouncing. >> Yeah, we'll see where these these they're open yet, but seeing a lot of zero bids here. Uh, so we got to be careful with these options if we're trading them. But yeah, we will see.
[01:04:42] >> You know, so what I was going to say earlier, we you messed up for Prime Day. Day, what I was told a long time ago is that you're supposed to put um the items You're supposed to put any items you're
[01:04:54] interested in in the cart and then see on Prime Day if there's a discount. discount it to the price that it was That's exactly what you're doing. Yes. >> Your mom I'm pretty sure my daughter
[01:05:06] open up my account, there's always things in the cart. So, >> yeah. No, I know how that goes. I know. >> Or like the the subtle wish list. Like, oh, yeah, we could have subtle wish list. [laughter]
[01:05:19] >> I love it. Um, but yeah, Amazon, interestingly enough, still sitting at interestingly enough, still sitting at like 240, which is crazy cuz uh a year ago 240 would have been a home run if you're trading it down here, but it's
[01:05:31] well off the highs of almost 280 here. Um, so yeah, maybe you get some some >> Wendy's is halted. >> Wendy's is halted. I was just thinking I was just looking at that. [laughter] >> That's what I like.
[01:05:45] >> We can't have this happen again. >> It's frozen. Yeah. 859 halted. Uh yeah, these options are not tradable at least right now. Uh Speaking of uh anybody in the chat, please like and subscribe please to
[01:05:59] you see. >> Yeah, you know what? Let's let's look at this uh Micron trade. So, uh the iron condor condor up 20 points. This 1300 1320 800 780. Uh
[01:06:12] huge bid assass spread here uh with these markets. So, I wonder if it's the put side chopping around. Yeah, we'll see. I'm going to throw this in for I'm going to throw this in at seven bucks and see if we get filled
[01:06:25] given >> that is a that is a wide bid ask spread, It's a $1,000 product, right? So, you're not looking your call spread? >> Uh, 1300 1320.
[01:06:38] >> Yeah. >> Oh, you guys are doing it together. >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. [laughter] which could I mean it sounds weird when you say it like that, you know, but >> it's so cute. I love when that happens.
[01:06:51] >> Yeah, it could either it could either be great or it could be terrible. >> It's going to be hard to get filled. >> Yeah, I think the 1150 1200 1250 is the the short options are right at the expected move. So, in case there's an
[01:07:04] inside up move at the expected move, the iron condor will still be 100 points out of the money. The butterfly uh will fill up pretty quickly here with only one day up pretty quickly here with only one day to go starting tomorrow. And uh this
[01:07:16] thing is trading for what? $4 for a 50 point wide. So yeah, >> do 420 [clears throat] instantly filled. Hate it. 403. bit more to carve. >> Yeah. 17 cent price improvement.
[01:07:31] >> That's not good. [laughter] >> That means they handed it to me on a >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. there. the iron condor. I think that's going to be an important component of this trade.
[01:07:43] be an important component of this trade. So 800 780 put spread, 1300 1320 call spread to finance a portion of that butterfly. But yeah, if we get an inside with the iron condor likely compressing and that butterfly appreciating. But
[01:07:57] yeah, E- Mini is catching a bit here. Up 30, NASDAQ up 135. Uh Jamal and Liz, thank you for a fun morning. We're going to take a quick 90 second break. We've got a special guest on the other side. You're watching Tasty Live.
[01:08:12] >> Tasty Trade has crypto and you [music] can trade with zero commissions. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and more. Diversify in one place. [music] Crypto. Diversify in one place. [music] Crypto. We got it. We get it.
[01:08:36] whoever could get the captain seat was it. [laughter] >> That's great. I'm having a great time. >> Me, too. But I mean, stay a while. Take >> No. No. I mean, I'll stay, but the jacket's not cool.
[01:08:49] >> Nope. [laughter] >> Come on. >> I'm sorry. I didn't mean to. >> No. I'm sorry.
[01:09:03] horse, so I guess you got to hear his tail. In ' 87, I took it off. There was the market crash. [music] In '92, NBC cancelled Blossom. A couple of years ago, I lost it for 2 days and the Lakers won the NBA Finals. [music]
[01:09:18] off, bad things happen. mean, >> never do. >> The jacket's kind of gotten used to it. In fact, every [music] few days it needs
[01:09:31] >> No matter what, you keep you keep it on. >> I can take my shirt off if you want, but I'm not taking the jacket off. >> I just don't know if [music] that's something that I could deal with. >> It'll be like a teal tornado.
[01:09:45] I >> mean, I [music] >> Yeah.
[01:10:15] us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. We're streaming live there. You can throw in your trade ideas, questions all on the right hand side. Chat, we've got Micron earnings after the close today. Actually just ticked red. Uhoh.
[01:10:27] down six uh sitting at 1050. Huge implied move for earnings after the implied move for earnings after the close today north of 10% which is always uh creation of maybe some fireworks but e- minis and NASDAQ had a little bit of
[01:10:41] a rally here but they are chopping around seem to be selling off here. Uh it feels like a day where we might turn red but who knows. Uh we do have a guest doing? >> How you doing?
[01:10:54] >> Doing great. Thank you all for having me. Absolutely. Absolutely. Um, so we were chatting just brief briefly pre-market. We were talking about some wheel strategy. Why is that? >> Yeah.
[01:11:08] positions that typically I'm holding longterm. Um, but I like to be generating income while I'm also in the market instead of just kind of seeing, you know, green numbers on the screen
[01:11:21] that actually isn't cash hitting my account. Um, so I'm a big fan of the whale strategy. I talk about that a lot on the channel. Um, and I think a lot of the viewers once they kind of understand how it works are also interested in kind
[01:11:34] of running that strategy themselves. >> Yeah. Nice. Are there any like um specific names that you like to do? Is it consumer staples? Is there any or is there any things that you'll stay
[01:11:46] when you're looking for these sort of when you're when you're looking to employ these strategies? What kind of names are you looking do them in? >> Yeah, so usually I'm looking for names that are typically, you know, trending
[01:11:58] upwards but have some some kind of volatility with them because I think it gives you good entries and then also kind of good profitability. So right now um mainly the four primary quantum names are usually like my top picks. So we've
[01:12:13] are usually like my top picks. So we've got uh Regetti, ION Q, D-Wave, and then Quantum Computing Inc. I've kind of stepped away from that one. Um, but yeah, Ion Q has been a really, you know, my bread and butter. Um, probably since
[01:12:27] middle of last year. Um, and then I also look at names like Rocket Lab. Um, pretty well, uh, running the strategy on. Um, and yeah, so I've got a number
[01:12:39] those names. >> Justin likes names with high volatility. Yeah. What I'm noticing. Yeah, >> it seems like under $100, high implied premium, two-sided action. Uh that's the
[01:12:52] strategy is like if you see a chart that's up and down and up and down, >> that's a great chart for something like a wheel strategy because you're likely point. You're going to pick up a lot of premium along the way and then if and
[01:13:06] when you do get that up move, you're going to uh realize that profitability premium you're collecting. So, we were just talking to Liz, uh, one of our co-hosts here, and she was looking at some really tight wheels on Micron, uh,
[01:13:21] or not Micron, sorry, SpaceX, because you can get so much premium relative to, like even the near-term stuff. Are you looking at monthlies? Are you looking at feel? >> Yeah, so typically 30 days out is
[01:13:37] usually my expiration. Um, and I like to be in like a 0.35 delta. Um, and at least 4% return on the premium. Um, but obviously the better the premium, the more attractive it looks to me. Um, and SpaceX is a name. I haven't started
[01:13:52] digging through their options chain yet, but it's also on my radar. Yeah. And like even here if you if you did this for 23 days close enough to the 30-day for 23 days close enough to the 30-day 35 delta picking up 750 bucks which is
[01:14:06] 35 delta picking up 750 bucks which is uh what 7% of the stock price. So huge >> and uh yeah she was looking at like selling even the at the money and then the stock just so that you can get into this call skew premium. Is that
[01:14:20] something you look at too? calls skew versus puts skew or is it really just uh products that have high IV products you you like being in? Uh seems like you're more more quantum leaning. >> Yeah, you know, I think I kind of lean
[01:14:33] towards names that it companies I I wouldn't mind owning at the end of the day cuz I know that there is going to be assignments uh that happen. So I kind of pick uh you know a cost basis that I'm comfortable with. So maybe ion Q is $45,
[01:14:48] maybe Rocket Lab $75 to 80. And if I get assigned on those, then that's totally fine with me. Um, so I'm usually looking for names that I'm just comfortable owning. Um, if the assignments do happen.
[01:15:01] >> Yeah, that leads to the question I had. Uh, a great friend of mine once said, described this idea. Uh, basically, you know, you're when you're selling that there's a couple of things that could happen. He's explaining it to to newer
[01:15:14] investors and he was saying, you know, basically the the best if you get where you want to get long stock, right? And if you don't, the worst thing that it moves away from your strike. So, leads me to my question. Which kind of
[01:15:28] person are you? Do you really you really want to take stock? It sounds like I but you love the idea of getting stock. So, I feel like some people are are stock at that price, and some people are like, "Ah, man, I wanted to get
[01:15:40] are you? >> Yeah, it depends. Um, you know, for like >> Yeah, it depends. Um, you know, for like ION Q and and Rocket Lab, I I try to not get assigned. I'd rather just collect the premiums, move on, and just continue
[01:15:55] running the strategy. If the assignment happens for ion cube, for example, that stock I own, sold it for a nice profit, and now I'm looking for assignments again because I truly want to own the stock.
[01:16:10] would say. >> Yeah, it makes sense. And, you know, sometimes the premium uh or the buying power requirement relative to owning the stock is pretty similar. Uh, sometimes it's dramatically different where you
[01:16:24] more leverage by way of lack of buying power. Um, so I think in those cases, I keeping the put on just be for capital efficiency. Um, but yeah, sometimes you
[01:16:36] take the stock and then uh if you have a super aggressive call skew, I'd rather have the stock in that case because then I can sell that call much higher than static delta profitability all the way up if it does end up moving that way.
[01:16:49] >> Um, but yeah, [clears throat] a super conservative strategy, especially for uh people just dipping their toes in the options world. You just have the the key is the sizing. Like to your point, you have to be willing to take that stock.
[01:17:03] accept those 100 shares because that's the only way it works. The the way it variance and you're always going to give yourself a better entry point. You're going to continue to reduce cost basis with that sale of the short call with no
[01:17:17] upside risk once you have the shares. Uh so yeah, super super conservative >> So along those lines, Justin, you like Rocket Lab and you know, we have SpaceX eventually be in your wheelhouse or what?
[01:17:30] >> Yeah, I I think so. Um, I owned it before, like I said, a cost basis of around $73.50. Um, ended up selling it on this initial runup. Um, was expecting some kind of pullback after the SpaceX IPO, which is
[01:17:43] typically what we're seeing. So, I'm actually looking for an entry in that name probably within the next couple of days or a week. trades. >> You're saying in SpaceX that is in the
[01:17:55] next couple of weeks. >> Uh, for Rocket Lab would be in the next looking into that one also. >> Gotcha. Okay. >> Love it. Yeah, a lot of these products uh can and and will move together um as
[01:18:09] they're related for sure. >> But yeah, good stuff. Uh the wheel shares and then once you get the shares, selling a call against it to continue that uh premium collection. It's a high probability trade and it's kind of a an
[01:18:25] shares of stock instead of just buying it outright. you can make money in a neutral market or or even a down market for that case. So, uh, anytime you can in a good spot. >> Cool. Well, thank you very much. Uh,
[01:18:41] appreciate your time and, uh, we'll see you later. Hopefully, you get into that SpaceX premium. Seems pretty juicy. >> Yeah. Yeah. Thank you both. >> Absolutely. Uh, E- Minis, NASDAQ chopping around. E- Minis up four,
[01:18:54] NASDAQ down 50. Bitcoin selling off a little bit, down, 1100. Gold and silver continuing uh their trudge to the downside. Gold down 3%, silver down 5%. Uh I'm going to see what what I can do here with those positions. I wasn't
[01:19:09] filled on the gold short put spread just yet. Uh we'll see if we get filled movement in this market here. I got filled on the micron, by the way. Okay. >> I stepped down to uh 660, I think. >> Okay. Yeah, I've got it still at seven
[01:19:22] thing since I'm I'm in that butterfly already. But we're going to take a quick other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
[01:19:36] Tasty Trade has crypto [music] and you can trade with can trade with zero commissions. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and more.
[01:19:51] Diversify in one place. Crypto. We got [music] it. We get it.
[01:20:03] whoever could get the captain seat was it. [laughter] >> That's great. I'm having a great time. >> Me, too. But I mean, stay a while. Take >> No. No. [laughter] I mean, I'll stay, but the jacket's not.
[01:20:16] >> Nope. >> Come on. >> I'm sorry. I didn't mean to. [music] >> No, I'm sorry.
[01:20:30] guess you got to hear his tale. In ' 87, I took it off. There was the market crash. [music] In '92, NBC canled Blossom. Couple of years ago, I lost it for 2 [music] days and the Lakers won the NBA Finals. Bottom
[01:20:45] off, bad things happen. >> You've got to take it off sometimes. I mean, >> never do. How do you shower? >> The jacket's kind of gotten used to it. In fact, [music] every few days it needs
[01:20:58] >> No matter what, you keep you keep it on. >> I can take my shirt off if [music] you want, but I'm not taking the jacket off. >> I just don't know if that's something that I could deal with. >> It'll be like a teal tornado. [music]
[01:21:12] I >> mean, I [snorts] This is moving so fast and I like it. This is moving so fast and I like it. Yeah.
[01:21:45] to the show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. And uh it's been a active morning so far. We've been placing some trades to the Tasty Trade follow page. Uh plenty of them to be exact. Couple Micron earnings trades. Got a butterfly
[01:22:00] on in there. Just got filled on the iron condor as kind of a combo trade here. And uh got bought the dip. I guess we can call it a dip in Google. Uh being included into the Dow Jones. I think that's a potentially bullish sentiment,
[01:22:13] but I like the diagonal spread pre-earnings uh and post earnings for the long option. Yeah, I did a Super Bowl in there the So, >> yeah. Uh, we do have E live from the
[01:22:28] SIBO floor. Love to bring him in, see what's going on over there. E, how you >> What's going on, guys? How we doing today? I know it's it's a it's been a market open, I got to say. But morning Jamal, morning Mike. How we doing today?
[01:22:41] >> What's going on? >> Yeah. >> Yeah, it's been it's been pretty wild. E- mini is up 30 now. NASDAQ up 100 catching a bid here. Uh definitely a bigger chop than implied volatility in
[01:22:54] S&P. >> Yeah. No, it's been pretty wide and I portfolio right now. I actually had to manage my risk on this one, but man, oil keeps slipping lower and lower, so I'm curious to see where the volatility is
[01:23:09] well. So, that's been that's been a little top of mind as well. little top of mind as well. Yeah, oil uh going into contango at one point today, which is not something I had on my bingo card. Uh but yeah, all
[01:23:22] these expirations are flat now in terms of the contracts. And I think this is a lesson that should be learned going forward. When you have global tension directly related to crude oil, you're going to see a steep backwardation.
[01:23:35] contracts just spike. Uh and you're going to see the back months kind of lightly ignore it. I mean, these the back months got as high as what 75 76 back here, while these near-term cycles got as high as 115. So, I think when you
[01:23:49] consider this and how it relates to volatility futures, it's a it's a telltale sign of like markets being calm in this specific market and not like the fact that we're flat now in crude oil futures in terms of the contango versus
[01:24:03] backwardation tells me that there's not much priced in right now. basically nothing priced in right now in terms of global tensions related to crude going >> 100%. That's that's a really good point that you make there uh Mike especially
[01:24:17] definitely going to be keeping an eye on a little bit more moving forward especially when it comes to some of these oil products. Um SpaceX as well I took my first position in SpaceX yesterday. I had bought just a call sold
[01:24:31] So I know we've seen a little bit more volatility on that end. Um, so I've been to I got to ask you guys, what have you guys' thoughts been on this? Uh, I guess it's been what, seven, eight days since options have been available in Space X.
[01:24:46] You guys got any comments on that one? >> I think it's moved uh, as we might have perfectly. He said you'd have a three-day rally followed by a liquidation event. Um, I always thought we'd see this euphoric rally. I didn't
[01:25:00] think we'd drop back down to IPO levels, honestly. I thought we would maybe stay at, you know, 180, 190, but I think that's just the name of the game with these IPOs. And the implied volatility here is nothing to scoff at. 100% IV
[01:25:14] across the board basically. Um, I actually bought a butterfly here, 20 points wide. It was only trading for 300 bucks for a 20 point wide butterfly in July. So, I felt that was too cheap for an upside move. You could double your
[01:25:28] money easily on an upside move from 150 to 170 even. But I also got into a >> also got into a longer term Super Bowl where I sold a put at 125 to finance the
[01:25:40] entire cost of a 300 strike leap. So this is a really long-term trade, but I think SpaceX is going to be one of those products where you you kind of chop around with high IV and then you've got a 30 40 point rip to the upside and you
[01:25:55] see implied volatility expand. So, I want to have the naked long call in that situation. And that short put just helps me finance the whole thing and creates a neutral trade where I can I'll happily accept stock at 125, especially with
[01:26:07] this kind of premium where I can uh reduce basis in a big way. >> Cool. >> I sold the 125, put the finance buy in >> I sold the 125, put the finance buy in the 250 call, $5 credit, 580 credit.
[01:26:19] >> Yeah. Sounds active down there. >> I know. Yeah. the market opened so far. I definitely got a lot of bids going out here. I know the ball seems a little bit quieter. >> Don't put your hands up.
[01:26:32] >> Don't put your hands up. [laughter] >> And apparently, don't don't drop >> Yeah. [laughter] Don't don't drop anything over here. Everybody starts everybody starts calling you out and pointing their finger at Definitely
[01:26:44] >> It is funny when that happens and everyone in the room's like, "Oh." >> And then there's one where there's a lot of like bing going on like chicken like still getting the the memo [laughter] for a lot of
[01:26:57] >> new be the one. >> Yeah. I I just don't want to be the I think if you sneeze or something like that, a bunch of chicken noises starts >> Uh you know, I'm keeping a pulse on it all. I'm being careful. I don't want to
[01:27:09] >> yeah. >> Yeah. Don't inadvertently buy a hundred hand movements. >> No, definitely not. Definitely try not to do that. Um I do have on QQQ. I bought a put on QQQ. It expires by the
[01:27:23] at least a little bit of downside here. I know we put in some lows yesterday at around 29,578 on NASDAQ. So, if we can just peak below ahead and take off some of the short
[01:27:38] But, a lot of volatility, a lot of uncertainty, uh, and I'll just continue >> Nice. >> I like it. >> Well, E, appreciate your time. Uh, hopefully the chicken gawking is not
[01:27:51] >> [laughter] >> Uh yeah, that's a new one. I I feel like didn't pay attention. >> Yeah, I I felt like I was in a fever dream. I didn't know what was going on. >> Yeah. Well, uh appreciate your time.
[01:28:05] Enjoy, uh the rest of your day at SIBO and we'll see you later. and we'll see you later. >> Adios. Uh E- Minis up 18. NASDAQ up 18 as well. Kind of flat. Bitcoin chopping around down 2%. What do we got in the
[01:28:20] somebody was like, "Can we get an example of the wheel trade?" >> Sure. Sure thing. Um, we could we could start a new one. Let's see. What do we got? Rocket Labs.
[01:28:33] Uh, down five bucks here. I actually like entering into wheel trades like get in because obviously you have a lower price point that you can accept. Uh, 23-day. If we just go with like the 80 strike, selling the 350. So, you sell
[01:28:49] You've got 800 bucks in buying power, max loss of $7,600, but you're picking max loss of $7,600, but you're picking up almost $4 on a $90 product. But the intention here is you sell this put, you let it go. Uh it's not something that
[01:29:02] you would typically manage. But if you want to continue to manage it, you can. strike put, you take the stock. Once you have the shares, you would sell a call at or above the 80 strike cuz that's where your basis is. Uh assuming you
[01:29:15] don't pick up a ton of premium where you could sell, you know, below where your basis. But ultimately, this is how you do it. So, let's just get in. Rocket >> I did not expect that guy to say like Rocket Labs or something like that.
[01:29:27] or like Proctor and Gamble. >> Yeah. >> He likes the volatile ones. >> Yeah. I mean, the volatile ones it you you get that premium as long as you're willing to take that risk. So,
[01:29:39] >> I'm in at 365. So, I'll post that to the Tasty Follow page and uh we'll just play the game. We'll we'll roll the the premium. We'll we'll take the stock if we need to. Uh but this is one of those examples where you have so much premium
[01:29:53] relative to buying power. I might just continue to roll that put because I I shares. So you have to keep that into consideration as well. Uh we do have our very own Tim Knight on the line. I'm very intrigued to see what he has to say
[01:30:07] about Micron and the rest of the products. Tim, how you doing this >> I'm doing pretty good. um kind of watching the wiggles and waggles. There's a a lot of uncertainty right now. It's uh [clears throat] uh looks
[01:30:21] like a seismograph. Nothing really. There's a lot going on and there's guess the proverbial all smoke, no fire happening, at least from what I can tell. >> Um I did uh pull together a few charts I
[01:30:35] found a little interesting on this very early morning. Uh you mind if I thumb >> Absolutely. >> Okay. Um, in no particular order, although I've grouped these a little bit, uh, gold is still weak. Down almost
[01:30:50] bit, uh, gold is still weak. Down almost $100 on this, and I don't think it's going to be rallying anytime soon. I I I sort of thought it was get down to $4,000, which we're just about there, but looking at a little longer term, I
[01:31:04] think maybe uh it could just keep slipping away to like 3500 or so. So, slipping away to like 3500 or so. So, this is looking still real weak. Uh, that's a nice clean pattern. Um, it really took put the gibbos on what had
[01:31:18] been a just a splendid bull market in here. Just a steady series of higher chugging. It reached sort of its climax here and then just got this kind of here and then just got this kind of violent um breakdown. So, that's uh
[01:31:32] that's turnurning away. And obviously GLD kind of the same setup. We've got that lovely little little right triangle and we had our kind of last gasp at a recovery uh the week prior and we've been tumbling away since then. And in
[01:31:46] been tumbling away since then. And in turn um the miners um they're off their lows this morning, but these are breaking down as well. I don't um uh the only positions I've got metals related are I'm still short EQX which is Equinox
[01:32:02] are I'm still short EQX which is Equinox uh gold miner and also um XME which is not just precious but metals and mining in general and as I've shown our viewers in the past the ratio chart of XME versus GDX is really this cool cycle
[01:32:17] over the years and it suggests that XME is going to vastly underperform XME will come. So if you if you're dying to be short miners, I think XME is the better
[01:32:30] short miners, I think XME is the better way to go. Um and naturally dust um the U ultrash short on this has had a really good 6 or 7 days. Um turning our attention to things more digital. Uh this was kind of a relief for me because
[01:32:45] this was kind of a relief for me because I I am short Bitcoin and um we we were rallying last night and for reasons that don't really matter but I am kind of curious um about half an hour ago it uh gave up any any wisp of strength and
[01:32:59] we're down um on Bitcoin quadruple digits. And um the the key here would be very beneficial to the one or two bears out there is a failure of that psychologically crucial $60,000 level sometime in in the days ahead because as
[01:33:15] long-term really bearish looking pattern. Um in fact, let's just just look a little more longterm. We could drag that horizontal down like so. You can see um the the the massive overhead supply and we're sort
[01:33:31] of teetering at that approximately it's just about on the button um $60,000 just about on the button um $60,000 level. Failing that would be a big deal. So I'm I'm short this by way of being long. BI TI. Uh and as far as MSTR goes,
[01:33:48] Michael Sailor Strategy um clearly also doing quite poorly. And this one's this just a Bitcoin holding company is all it is. But it seems to have exag it almost performs like a leverage instrument. Um because uh you know Bitcoin's not down 5
[01:34:03] and a/4% but MSTR is. So this is really getting walloped. I haven't looked at STRC lately which is Sailor's kind of high yield instrument to get cash to buy this stuff. Uh but um well [clears throat] what the heck I'll take
[01:34:16] a peek. I honestly don't know what it's doing. Um, uh, this is like the 11.5% dividend issue. Um, [clears throat] okay, we got some old data there. Nice. All right, there we
[01:34:29] data there. Nice. All right, there we go. Uh, down this is again. >> This I I don't know the exact mechanics of this, but it ostensibly it was offered as a as a sailor in an interview
[01:34:43] actually said he had chat GP designed it for him. He has this conversation with Chad GP about designing a financial instrument that's never been done before. And maybe this is why um but it uh the the thumbnail I understand you
[01:34:57] can hear the huge asterisk I'm making next to my sentence is that this would throw off a dividend of 11.5%. Which is very handsome return of course in a risk-free environment, a risk-free instrument which this clearly is not.
[01:35:10] Um, and those proceeds be used to to fund the acquisition of Bitcoin for its fund the acquisition of Bitcoin for its treasury holdings for MSTR. And um, for as exciting as a passbook savings account. It was basically like a $100
[01:35:25] instrument that threw off 11 12%. Yay. Um, as you can see, there have been some doubts lately about uh, is this going to survive or not. Um, so it's nice that
[01:35:37] you had 11 12% but it doesn't help if your if your capital crash is 16%. You know, you sort of I think that wipes it out. So yeah, that's STRC. Um, I think stretch is sort of the vernacular for that. So um, anyway, let's see what else
[01:35:54] yeah, couple of shorts I still like. I still like I got 30 positions. I like a lot of shorts. Um couple that are uh just wanted to mention is a vis another nice day here 4% drop on this and this is one of those bottle rockets
[01:36:09] [clears throat] have reached its apex and starting to yield the gravity and then uh Western Digital another storage firm here WDC down uh little more than
[01:36:21] than 3% and our old favorite the North Star our our perpetual standby SMH down uh which is interesting cuz today yesterday was a real wallup for South yesterday was a real wallup for South Korea for SMH. Down 10, 11% for South
[01:36:36] Korea. So, you would figure today would be recovery day. You know, kind of maybe climb your way back to the gap or something. It's doing no such thing. Um happily take any red number. This is down another half percent. So, um uh
[01:36:53] this is uh this is a positive for the bears out there. Um you mentioned Micron earlier. there's all these crazy high flyers. Uh some of which still seem to flyers. Uh some of which still seem to have their mojo, but more and more um
[01:37:06] they're uh they're starting to really show their age. You know, you can't always sustain 5 6 700% gains in a few months and and not suffer. Uh another item which leaped out is CBRS. Before SpaceX was coming out, I would bring
[01:37:21] this up as an example of like, you know, the old saw, but IPO stands for it's probably overpriced. and CBRS kind of proved that as an example. It's at a new lifetime low now. Um they came out at a very propitious time um since they're
[01:37:37] you know semiconductor/memory related but it's been a dreadful stock and I just think that since we have like 8 days of data for SpaceX to look at it's it's uh eye opening to see you know this is this is how these kinds of things can
[01:37:51] go kind of grind lure. Meta was like this. Meta was a dreadful stock for months and months until it kind of uh steadied itself. But as far as SP uh steadied itself. But as far as SP uh SPCX goes, um steadying, you know, kind
[01:38:05] SPCX goes, um steadying, you know, kind of stable around uh 150ish. So the the terror that had gone over these three days is abated for now. And just a couple last ones. Um INQ uh is basically unchanged at the moment.
[01:38:19] It's hanging around yesterday's lows. I guess everybody's waiting to see what's next. Uh tomorrow is kind of the one and only data point that we've got this week. Uh I think it's the PCE. Um yeah, so that's the the only economic data
[01:38:32] things up one way or the other. And finally, uh a real favorite in my short positions right now. Another former highf flyier AXT, which is the symbol AXTI. Uh this
[01:38:46] is down today almost 11% and more importantly uh a nice failure of that topping pattern that you see right there. So that's um sadly my tiniest That's a real honey of a chart right
[01:39:00] shoulders, right? >> Um you know what if I don't know if this is a pattern, but I'd call it kind of an invert an inverted uh cup with handle. and that that's kind of what I see.
[01:39:14] you go. >> Yeah, true. I can see that. I've >> Yeah, >> with no more no more bull in it left. >> None at all. >> I mean, it might retrace. It might it
[01:39:29] might clamor it way back to its uh range. But no, I think that's a dead >> Yeah. >> What do you think about uh what do you today? Uh, well, that's cool that they're
[01:39:43] inform semiconductors in general. I haven't peaked at the chart, but let's haven't peaked at the chart, but let's take a look. Um, well, all I can say is that from a charting perspective, this is what we call, let me find the right
[01:39:57] is what we call, let me find the right tool here. Um, a uh island reversal gap. And um you know uh provided it stays below that price line, it's um that that's a that's a that's a pretty
[01:40:10] that's a that's a that's a pretty serious uh uh setup for for reversal. So um I don't think I have Micron anymore, but uh I will wage I will put forth the tomorrow. I think it's going to I think it's going to tumble away after
[01:40:23] >> That's fair. Yeah, I think we we all agree it'll be inside the implied move of 140 points. Um, I think it's it's going to have a tough time ripping higher all things considered considering it's already up 300% uh this year. So,
[01:40:38] we'll see. But, thank you very much, Tim. Uh, appreciate you and we'll see >> See you tomorrow. Bye-bye. >> Adios. Ein up 18. NASDAQ up 30 down the Russell up as well. The market's trying to decide which direction it wants to
[01:40:53] go. uh Bitcoin chopping around as we noted, but yeah, gold, silver, oil, crude oil specifically, all down two and a half% in gold, almost 5% in crude and silver. So, crazy moves. Crazy moves. Uh we do have a fun little research piece
[01:41:09] we do have a fun little research piece though, hosted by our only one and only >> Hi guys, how's it going? >> Good. Your hair is shiny and wavy today. What's going on? I uh washed it yesterday and now I'm wearing Yeah. It's
[01:41:25] the curls are coming out. I usually We usually wear it in a bun. So >> Oh, yeah. Never seen you in a bun. >> You never seen me in a bun? Really, >> Oh, >> have I? Maybe I have. I don't know. I
[01:41:39] >> If I wear my hair down in the office when it's like full full throw, it's going to get like caught and stuff. People are going to be running into it. causing problems. So, yeah. I'm more of a braid person. Actually, I've been more
[01:41:51] >> Oh, so >> it's for safety. It's for office safety. >> It's for safety. Workplace hazards. We're trying to reduce the Yeah. >> OSHA inquiries. >> Yeah. Um what do you got for us today?
[01:42:05] where it's going. Uh I'm talking about SpaceX today. We're just kind of checking in on um where it's at. U you know, with options coming out kind of recently and a lot of lot of volume since it got options. A lot of people
[01:42:18] talking about it. We just wanted to check in on um where it's at. Is the price any more or less stable? Um and where the options in terms of liquidity because um shocker this options the options on SpaceX became liquid very
[01:42:31] very very quickly. Um I want to do a study on this um at some point but I feel like with a lot of these major IPOs the options are becoming liquid faster some point. So we're just doing a quick little check-in um now that we're you
[01:42:44] know a little little over a week uh little over couple weeks in. Yeah, it's been uh super volatile. We've got a couple of positions on butterfly to the upside. Uh I feel like it's too cheap. The one 180 160 200 uh that was
[01:42:59] for like three bucks, 20 points wide. And then a Super Bowl sold the 125 put all the way out in Jan to finance the entire cost and more of a upside call. Uh really I just think this is going to be this is going to behave
[01:43:15] like Bitcoin and volatility products where if and when you get that big rip to the upside, you're going to see implied volatility expand. Uh and I want to have that naked long haul in that situation. So we'll see what happens.
[01:43:27] >> Yeah. You like that? Long term. >> Really long term. Wa. That's crazy. can't I can't imagine being that committed to anything >> really. [laughter] >> Well, let me ask you this, Julie. If you
[01:43:40] would you go to space? >> Absolutely not. >> Absolutely not. I hate space. >> Okay, so I want you, E, and Jamal in my spaceship when we go. [laughter] >> You three are going to be screaming. I'm
[01:43:54] be like, "Hell yeah, let's do this." >> Like, we got a perfectly lovely planet. We got air. We got food. We got grass. We don't need to go. I'm I'm cool with movie as a physicist. >> And she did science. She knows. I yeah,
[01:44:09] I know. I studied actually a good amount of stars, cosmology, all that stuff. Um, but space is just like Interstellar. I've never been so miserable during a >> That's a good one. That's a good movie. >> It's and it's a shame, too. They
[01:44:22] published two general relativity papers just from the simulations of the black it is like the mo I call it the most sigh that fi can get while still being interesting. And I still cannot watch that movie again. I'm okay.
[01:44:37] >> I ain't going to space. >> Maybe you'll get Titan submersible. I >> I'm going to sell these puts in SpaceX and that'll be my way of going to space. I want this thing to go to space. I am not going to space. But yeah, along the
[01:44:50] same lines of Mikey, >> I did um Oh, she does. Oh, sorry. Let me [clears throat] about No, we could just yap about SpaceX too if you want. But I Let's look at your slides. >> Let's do the slides. Yeah. Okay. Mission
[01:45:02] control, the current state of SpaceX trading. This piece is by Sah Hill. if you want to follow him over on X. Um we've been writing a lot more articles just between uh the couple of us on the research team. So give Sahil a follow if
[01:45:14] these pieces. But yeah, we're talking about the current state of SpaceX the state with how crazy it's been. Um to the first slide. So options very volatile. Um and we're seeing how
[01:45:28] seeing like really I mean it's up a flip from the pre-market levels where it was at, but still down 25% in the last like five 5 days. So, um, that came and went very fast and still a lot more to
[01:45:42] go. Um, and what an interesting statistic, uh, looking at the July 17th expiration options on SpaceX. Uh, we had 20 20,000 contracts in open interest during the market close on June 17th and now it's down to six 6830. So, just
[01:45:56] options. We're seeing a lot of people closing their positions out just with the volat volatility. So Mikey, maybe with taking a very long-term approach um could make sense with getting some exposure to this. Uh but you know, being
[01:46:09] short-term movements as it's trying to as the market is trying to undergo price movement, although a little bit less today, which is actually quite >> Next one. >> Yeah, sure. Next one.
[01:46:24] >> Cool. Um yeah, so this is a fun I call this the Pelaton curve. Uh but usually it takes place over a longer period of time. Um so yeah, just a sheer the sheer bit of a continuation of that although it's up a bit today. Um just over the
[01:46:41] had with this underlying. So really volatile IPO and we're seeing also consistently from where we were at. Um so uh we haven't had a lot of major IPOs in the last like 10 years. So there's not a ton of data um to kind of point to
[01:46:56] to say whether this is exaggerated or um exaggerated than it would typically be. Um but certainly like just from pure volume levels especially relative to like the like the MAG 7 and some other
[01:47:09] you know lot of interest in this in the option space and in the um equity space we're seeing a little bit of cooling as the price is starting to come back down to earth a little bit. Although Jamal, I know you wanted to take right back off.
[01:47:24] >> Maybe that's the spirit. >> I think we'll see uh we'll see some chop. I mean, it's just this how it works. Like Meta had the same thing. Meta was a dog after an IPO and now it's, you know, multiples higher. So,
[01:47:38] we'll see. But yeah, expect implied volatility and realized volatility for >> Yep. Um and again we're seeing where these like liquidity levels kind of consistent with what we see just like across underlyings in general. Um but
[01:47:51] when we're looking at average volumes we see yeah still a lot of activity like towards the close with liquidity levels being a little bit drier towards the middle. This is generally what we see across the market you know more broadly
[01:48:03] where we get towards midday that's when liquidity becomes a little bit thinner. trading these uh with something that still has so much volatility associated liquid, just bearing in mind trading times throughout the day, especially for
[01:48:18] short-term trading, this is just something that's good to just note when whenever putting positions on um in underlyings like this. So, just little that and then um this one found very interesting little comparison on the
[01:48:30] next slide of just like how liquid is this compared to some other underlyings So, uh, we basically looked at the 59-day options, the at the money puts across a couple different underlyings, and we can actually see like even though
[01:48:43] couple of days now at this point, um, it's actually showing when we look at spread as a percentage of close, like similar tightness in the bid ask spread as other names like Oracle, Coinbase, CRM, much more established um, options
[01:48:57] markets and other underlyings. So um this thing got very liquid, pretty liquid very quickly um comparable to like some other major names that are very actively traded um and potentially more to go again as the price becomes
[01:49:09] more um or the the I should say the market becomes more confident of the price moving forward. >> Yeah. Uh this is similar to like IBIT too. IBIT was released bid spreads were somewhat
[01:49:23] wide but we were like this is going to be super liquid going forward. Uh I have a role too. The the higher the implied volatility is the slightly wider the bid spreads will be. But I have no doubt that SpaceX will be one of the
[01:49:35] with the options market too. >> It's too big not to be for sure. >> Yeah, it's huge. Yeah. And just bearing in mind with liquidity um for anybody like considering getting into this is that liquidity with options is a much
[01:49:48] more nuanced concept because like further out of the money you get for time to expiration can change the liquidity level. So just really looking at like bid ask spreads um looking at open interest looking at volume for
[01:50:01] specific contracts can be really helpful just to make sure that you can easily get in and out of the position. So obviously a lot of SpaceX options are now. But option liquidity is a little bit more nuanced. So just checking those
[01:50:13] different doing a little sanity check can sometimes help um when considering further out of the money and especially like further out in time. >> Indeed. >> Indeed. And now we got next slide. We
[01:50:26] got a VWAP. Um, so showing like basically um if the current price is above or below prior prices um and or at least that's how I understand it. And seeing the bulls or the bears take over in any consistent way. We're seeing just
[01:50:41] a lot of chop um when it comes to looking at like relative price increases or decreases relative to prior prices. So um we're not really seeing clear, I would say like trends uh yet in terms of like where does the market think that
[01:50:54] this is going. We're still seeing a lot of like speculative um like price it or speculative trading. So just being very careful about getting into regards to the options for the liquidity reasons primarily that we talked about
[01:51:07] >> This looks like Christmas to me. >> It's Christmas. >> I love it. It looks like a zebra striped gum to me [laughter] >> almost perfectly. Um do you know what those are?
[01:51:20] >> Zebra striped. No. What's a zebra striped gum? old. >> No, I'm looking it up. Zebra striped >> Yeah, they're they were all the rage back then.
[01:51:33] >> They were >> Yeah, I think with the >> This looks like This is like the era of like Zoo Pals. Is that what it was called? Zoo Pals and Purple Ketchup. >> I don't know.
[01:51:46] >> Zupals were like the little They were the plates >> where they were like the plates. Yeah, we had purple ketchup. We had green had plates that were animal shaped. Those were I think they were called Zoo
[01:51:58] Pals. They were the best. Um >> I missed these. stripe gum. >> I had kids. [laughter] >> I know. It's crazy, but no. >> Oh, well, whatever. We'll go we'll make
[01:52:14] >> Um >> for now, we can talk about some takeaways, but the takeaway is kind of what we've been talking about. Um, we're seeing SpaceX really move all over the place. Big sell-off, um, big runup, big
[01:52:26] sell-off, um, and now kind of like little bit less movement today, but still like a, you know, the very brief history that is very volatile. Um, and move on. So, what we're seeing as well as options are becoming more and more
[01:52:40] contract as a reference point, we're seeing SpaceX options be as liquid as some other major names such as Coinbase. So, um, we're seeing option liquidity make this more tradable, but that price volatility is certainly still there,
[01:52:54] especially when we're seeing large contract or large positions, um, large out very quickly. It's just about being careful and being mindful of the price especially in the short term as this thing is becoming more um, I don't know,
[01:53:09] as the market is becoming more confident in the pricing and the true value, I >> as it matures. Yeah. >> As it matures. >> Yeah. Yeah, I think you'll see chop going forward. You'll have your up days,
[01:53:21] you've got like the inclusion into the NASDAQ. You've got lockout periods ending. So, it's going to be some push and pull. Um, so just keep your size in check, but still plenty of premium on either side of the market if you are uh
[01:53:36] selling it or creating calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, and whatnot. >> But appreciate it, Julia. Go get a pack of Zebra Stripe gum. I'm sure you can find it somewhere. Uh, I can't wait. It only It only lasts like like a minute
[01:53:49] and then it's flavorless. So that's why they give you a hundred in the pack. purple ketchup, which I'm sure the purple ketchup from like the two early >> That's just like they're breaking my brain to think of purple ketchup.
[01:54:04] were found in like a 50-year bin and they were just ready to go. those McDonald's fries. >> Yeah. you guys. >> Absolutely. See you later. Uh E- Minis,
[01:54:18] NASDAQ chopping around. Both of them are green right now, but that will probably change by the end of the day. Uh yeah, join us on the YouTube channel. We're still streaming there. Head over to Tasty Live. Uh throwing your trade ideas
[01:54:30] question, specifically AMD, maybe some MU positions. But we're going to take a the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[01:57:37] Jamal. And just like that, E- Minis are up 30, NASDAQ's up 50. Just after a 90 flying around like crazy, >> all over the place. chat. It is not zebra stripe gum. It is fruit stripe gum, which sounds much more
[01:57:53] familiar. TP, have you ever heard of this fruit stripe gum?
[01:58:05] >> broken. >> Fruit Stripe gum. >> it was a thing. I do remember this. >> It's like a zebra striped gum with different flavors. The the logo >> maybe I saw it on TV. So, Mike, what you
[01:58:17] got to understand is, you know, I grew up in Massachusetts. We didn't have those advanced things like you guys have. Um, you know, never heard of it? You never saw that? This is
[01:58:29] >> We didn't [clears throat] We didn't get gum until 1990. My god. So, having the idea like I don't know. We just didn't have I I don't remember it. Certainly. That's why when I was a kid growing up and watching the Brady Bunch in a black
[01:58:42] and white TV, I thought that was like, oh my god, California, it's they have >> and they probably had Brady Bunch probably had fruit. Fruit Strike. So anyway, >> TP
[01:58:55] women, man. You haven't heard of Fruit Strike? See, there it is right there. You never seen this? >> Oh, here we go. Yeah, >> If you don't recognize a zebra, then you definitely didn't see it. I'm starting
[01:59:07] Seriously. [clears throat] I mean, >> sorry. Sorry to deflate your memories, >> This thing has been around. It It's from 1960. It was Beachnut. I do remember Beachnut. And it was it was just discontinued 2 years ago, by the way. I
[01:59:20] >> Yeah, it was probably toxic. It was probably toxic toxic kids. Everything from the 1960s was toxic. [laughter] >> Yeah, cuz Jamal, you went bald because you ate fruit striped gum. >> That's exactly what happened for sure.
[01:59:35] with that, I just want to go one more thing. You don't know the salad bar from don't know the salad bar from Wendy's cuz it was more than just salad. They had pretty much everything. Even kids would go there. I mean, I was kid had
[01:59:48] like meat there. Like they had everything. It was more than just a >> They had needed Okay. They had needed a salad bar. They had everything. What? Salami strips or something like that. >> First of all, again, we didn't have
[02:00:02] up. >> Even when I was a young person in Massachusetts, I don't think we didn't have Wendy's anywhere near me. So, like when I moved to Chicago back in the early 90s, like, oh my god, Wendy's. And
[02:00:16] the other point is too, Jamal, I'm not a salad bar kind of guy. Even if I knew of Wendy's salad bar, I would Don't Are Aren't they the ones with the square >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So, I would just go straight for
[02:00:30] the hamburgers. I've had I haven't had Wendy's probably in 20 30 years. I I had just I just don't >> I just never go there. But in any case,
[02:00:42] >> I just never go there. But in any case, Wendy's. So, it's the new meme stock, >> it would seem. And I don't know if you guys put a trade on in there, but I was thinking about selling the the seven puts in there with two days to go. Um,
[02:00:55] just to just to play along, you know, is Wendy's the new GameStop. And the argument, the story is they have a new chief financial officer, whatever. Does that matter? I don't know. But it's getting getting the the is it Wall
[02:01:09] Street bets or somebody? It's getting all the Reddit traders um excited about all the Reddit traders um excited about this stuff. And with 278% IV rank, the stock is up 30%. The bottom line is in 2 days, you know, I'm collecting what, 20
[02:01:25] >> Yeah. >> And for about $400, $450 of buying power. It just I I don't know anything about Wendy's aside from, you know, the salad bar that your mom raves about. And it's I Why not? Making 20 bucks. That's
[02:01:43] like a 5% return, not quite 5% in two days. And you wonder why, you know, option trading can generate such high potential returns. It's it's doing this. Um, you want to be more aggressive, sell the 7 750s. Get about 50 cents for
[02:01:59] those. That's a I I would do that, too, just to just to bet that the the Reddit world isn't going to quit on Wendy's. That's it. It's just a It's just a It's just a bet. When I don't go out don't go out to 95 days, Mike.
[02:02:14] >> don't do it. >> Well, I'm just I'm I was gonna exemplify the the skew here and like everybody is buying these calls. You can see the at the money put is trading for 50 cents. The out of the money call is trading for
[02:02:27] five times that amount. Uh >> yeah, that's just that's insane. That's insane. Well, that's it's everybody's betting that it's the next GameStop. >> You know what's funny? I mean, if I were a company, I would definitely lean into
[02:02:39] this. by the way. >> Well, I mean is in in what way? I mean our hamburgers. >> Offer some specials. >> We're the we're the we're the next meme stock.
[02:02:54] mean, you don't have to mention anything about being a meme stock, per se. Just offer some specials. You know what I mean? Get the get the people going. You "We've got some special tendies for those that have made some tendies on our
[02:03:08] spices $10. >> Keep an eye on your social media. Micron. What's Micron doing? What's Micron doing? Sure, we could talk about Micron doing? Sure, we could talk about that. Micron, and granted, I don't know.
[02:03:21] I don't know anything more about Micron than I do uh Wendy's. But Micron is now now unchanged. It's what up on the day. It was down as much as I thought I saw >> Yeah. >> Earlier this morning. It was down a lot.
[02:03:36] Um and now they're coming. Obviously, that's the name of today. Uh earnings are coming after the close. I do not have a trade on in Micron. I would look to put one on tomorrow depending what uh earnings come out as. I'd lean bullish
[02:03:52] on this stuff just cuz I'm just bullish on the AI space in general and Micron, you know, why not? Again, very high implied volatility. Even if it comes down um after earnings this afternoon, even if volatility is lower tomorrow
[02:04:05] morning, there's still going to be premium in there to sell. Um another trade I'm looking at is bullish in Exxon Mobile. I talked about this with uh Mobile. I talked about this with uh Chris Veio yesterday at um at uh at last
[02:04:19] call and I did a cherry bomb today selling an out of the money put spread in XOM. Earnings are coming up in August. So, this is a pre-earnings trade. I'm not betting on earnings, but the volatility is relatively high in
[02:04:34] there. Yeah. Going to 23 days. The argument here is that a yes, oil's down, and that stinks. And I'm short put spreads in oil. So, those
[02:04:46] are killing me today. >> But the idea is that Exxon Mobile is as much a stock as it is an oil. It is okay. as an oil company, but it is as sensitive to the price of the overall market, the move in the overall market
[02:05:00] versus the price of oil. So, oil's pulling it down. If the market continues to rally, I see this thing bouncing off its lows. I would sell something like, I don't know, the 32 34 put spread, something like that. Do a defined risk
[02:05:14] trade in there. But again, that's it's just a it's just a a simple contrarian >> That's a great point. And I always talk about that with names like Exxon. I mean, yeah, it it's people try to use it for oil proxies, and of course, it does
[02:05:28] sometimes, too. So, that's a great point, TP. >> Yeah, lots moving around. Uh TP, I promise next time you're in town, no salad bar. We're going to get ourselves some old school Chicken Hut. I know you
[02:05:41] >> Chicken Hut was >> I heard about his love for Chicken Hut. >> It was me and him. Nobody else. Everyone else hated it. And me and TP. it. is too plain. >> It is an extremely controversial lunch
[02:05:56] >> It's a lightning rod. >> But I like to think, Mike, that you and I have a certain amount of influence that we could get Chicken Hut the next time in Chicago. I would love that. >> Let's do it. We'll make it happen.
[02:06:08] Appreciate your thoughts, TP. We'll see you later. Um, but yeah, E- Mini is rallying here, up 30, NASDAQ up 110. Uh, we'll see what happens with Micron and going to take a quick 90 second break. We've got uh some more content for you
[02:06:22] on the other side. Yeah. Cute. We'll see you then.
[02:06:43] from this morning. Bodacia. Our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." I told you, Tasty Cracks, you can't plunder with headphones on. Light pillaging, maybe. Sometimes I'll hide in
[02:06:56] a gross pete bug in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. >> I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I think I trust market measures more than I trust my savage hellhor.
[02:07:14] slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. did the whole terrifying row of severed heads on pikes as a warning thing, but you never know with those thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.
[02:07:33] >> Thanks you guys. >> I hate puns, but that one was okay. >> I hate puns, but that one was okay. [music]
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[02:09:33] >> What's up, Ber? We're back to the show. We got E- Min is up 20, NASDAQ up 60. Wendy's. We got salad bars. We got stripe gum. Like, what have we've talked got more to talk about. We've got Jamal in the house. We got Q in the house. But
[02:09:47] in the house. We got Q in the house. But he can't say a word until I do the >> What's up? >> Well, well, so we've got what, three
[02:10:01] days left. >> Yeah. Saturday. Saturday is the big day. So, right now I'm like drinking a bunch of water, like water loading, and then fully cut water. I'm not crazy, >> but just like drink UFC fight.
[02:10:15] less. And then so like today I've been going to the bathroom like freaking >> you say drink a lot of water. What's the quantity you're you're trying to consume >> Um well normally like on a regular day I consume probably a gallon. But now it's
[02:10:29] closer cuz I measure it in like water bottles. I'm doing five water bottles >> Five gallons. >> Yeah. However, however much that may be a gallon. >> Oz is 128. Well, but then I also drink
[02:10:44] protein shakes throughout the day, which also adds to that. So, it's probably closer to >> one and a half, 1.75 gallons, something water and I'm going to the B. It's so funny cuz like with the way the market's
[02:10:57] moving today, I'm going to the bathroom every 10 minutes and then when I come crazy. >> And it's like, yeah, lot of uh a lot of scalping we're seeing on the trade desk today like with the futures. I'm sure
[02:11:10] Triple Q will be up there on the list with the intraday moves as well. And so, >> I haven't looked at the list. >> Okay. Well, let's do let's do the game. >> yeah. >> Uh, how do I It's got I think it's got
[02:11:22] to be it's got to be Micron SpaceX. >> No doubt. >> And FedEx will be up there probably. Top >> I'd be surprised. >> I think it's Micron SpaceX. Maybe AMD.
[02:11:35] >> AMD. TQQQ obvious TQQQ obviously is going to be up there too. But I would going to be up there too. But I would say my guess for number one is Yeah, Tesla every day anymore. >> No, Tesla's done. Tesla's working and
[02:11:47] money. >> Oh, yeah. GLV list. >> A lot of customers trade features. >> What are we guessing top five? Is that five?
[02:12:00] >> It'll be on the list. >> It Yeah, GLD and SLV probably on the list. Yeah, >> I think top top three would be SpaceX, >> right? >> And Wendy's, baby. Hi. [laughter]
[02:12:15] list and then talk about it a little bit after if you'd like. All right. Top 20 symbols going through the system and their IVR. And for Laura, no broad-based indices or ETFs. >> Damn, I should have said it in the top.
[02:12:29] >> All right. So at number one, Micron with a 92, TEQ 85, Tesla 38, GLD 49, SpaceX a 92, TEQ 85, Tesla 38, GLD 49, SpaceX -18, SLV 37, Nvidia 24, Google L 50,
[02:12:43] -18, SLV 37, Nvidia 24, Google L 50, Amazon 28, MSTR 61, Wendy's 283. [laughter] So volatility expanding extremely throughout the day. uh extremely throughout the day. uh Microsoft 62, Palunteer 24, Apple 37,
[02:12:57] Microsoft 62, Palunteer 24, Apple 37, iBit 34, Robin Hood 60, SNDK 84, Meta iBit 34, Robin Hood 60, SNDK 84, Meta 44, Intel 96, and Rocket Labs 35. >> Wow. See, now that's a nice diverse. >> It is actually. Yeah, I was thinking.
[02:13:11] >> Yeah, that everything's moving across all parts of the market, not just NASDAQ for a lot of our traders trying to diversify their strategies. Yeah, Wendy's being up there. Shout out to Wendy. Uh but yeah, Micron not
[02:13:27] surprising to see up on that list uh with earnings after the close today. Chopping around. Pretty big intraday range here. Got as high as 1083 as low as 1030. So you've had a 50 point range here. Um what kind of questions you
[02:13:40] >> Yeah, I would say well cuz we're just getting like you know a lot of the range people talk about the candles, right, cuz it was up earlier today, but sometimes the candle will be red. And so that's just based on like the intraday
[02:13:53] moves. So if you pull up the chart again, you can see like intraday if it's down from where it opened, the candle will be red, but theoretically it could that. So right now, you know, it's pretty much unchanged, but the candle is
[02:14:05] the unchanged candle cuz it's going to show from like where it opened to where it's trading now. So, that's sometimes uh something that we see with uh with customers that are a bit newer to trading as well, just understanding like
[02:14:19] >> It's weird though that this thing opened up higher and it's not flashing down 30. That part is a little weird. You know what I'm saying? what I'm saying? Like it it opened 1080,
[02:14:33] >> right? I think it opened. >> It was it was pre-market. It was up to like 1090 1080. I don't know where it opened exactly, but 1082 clear. >> It says to open 1082. >> Yeah. So, I think it's it's uh it is
[02:14:46] range here with Micron. I think you've got implied volatility coming in a little bit now. Only 116 point move for the next two days. Uh it was at like 140 pre-market and yesterday. So seeing implied volatility come in a little bit
[02:15:02] is kind of weird for an earnings announcement that feels like has been you know the talk of the town and we will see some move in after the close will see some move in after the close today with an implied move north of 10%.
[02:15:14] today with an implied move north of 10%. Uh especially with the differential here between the 2-day and the 23-day. You've only got 100 more points in the 23-day which is 10 times more time than the 2-day cycle. uh but still boasting half
[02:15:28] of that implied move. So, lots of craziness probably uh after the close >> Lots of craziness right now. Market is all over the place. >> When I came on, we were up 22 and now we're up 36
[02:15:42] >> You didn't even go to the bathroom. >> I This is no news. It's >> Yeah. Know, I was looking at the expected move this morning. It was I I forget what it was, but I was looking at the iron condor at like the 20 delta and
[02:15:55] I was like this is trading for way too much premium than what I'm expecting. I'm like something like coming out today like some sort of number, but I guess market, you know, sometimes premium higher is higher than what you expect,
[02:16:09] >> Yeah, I don't think there's any major >> I mean there's there's still there's 30 points of an implied move in S&P. So yeah, I would say this is your standard chop given the VIX level. I think if there was a number coming out intraday,
[02:16:22] you'd probably see closer to 50 60 points of an implied move, but uh >> you got core PCE and and GDP tomorrow. I don't really think that those are going to be surprises, honestly. >> And with the GTH hours and SPX, you can
[02:16:36] now trade those as well market. All really nice. A lot of people have been has gotten so much better than where it was a few years ago. And so you're able you want to trade, you know, first thing in the morning when you get up, you want
[02:16:51] to trade those, you know, core PCE numbers coming out at 7:30, you're able to do so via S&P. >> Yeah. Liz is all over that. She's doing boom, placing trade. >> Yeah.
[02:17:03] platform. Yeah. >> Why would you wait till 8:30 when you >> Couldn't have said it better myself. >> You can ask that question for a lot of things, you know. It's true. It's real. >> Uh E- mini is ripping higher now, up 40.
[02:17:16] NASDAQ up almost 200 points. We got uh over a half a percentage point to the upside in both of them. What's your prediction in Micron uh in terms of tomorrow's list? Do you think it'll stay on the list or do you think it'll
[02:17:29] >> Probably. >> We we could do a prediction market on >> Yeah, >> we'll we'll do it. Micron's number one >> Yeah, I would agree. I mean, it has to be, right? If it's if it's number one
[02:17:42] rest of the week? >> Yeah. >> Uh appreciate your time, Q. Uh I know you've got your competition coming up, >> We'll do. >> Beautiful. Yeah. We'll be back in just a
[02:17:56] little break here. E- mini's up 50. NASDAQ up 200. Crazy day. Uh Micron, of course, after the close today. We've got plenty more trade ideas and questions us there. But we'll be back in just about 90 seconds. You're watching Tasty
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[02:20:28] the show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal and we've had a jam-packed we've talked about the Wendy's salad bar, we've talked about Fruit Stripe >> [laughter] >> uh AMD.
[02:20:41] >> We did an options math uh on AMD. And uh it's obviously we we we talked about uh um it's one of those names where I think um we're going to see probably some some offshoots as a result of Micron's earnings, which we also
[02:20:55] >> talked about at a great amount today. Um, what else things. >> Well, we've we have a full page of trades on the follow page. So, I've got that pulled up here. Uh, if you want to
[02:21:09] find them on the Taste Trade Follow page. Just click this little follow feed right here. Uh, this can be found on the mobile app, the desktop app, web app. We're looking at the web app right now. Uh, but yeah, let's just let's recap
[02:21:23] why don't we kick it off with you? >> Oh jeez, we could be here a while. Um, decided, you know, and it's interesting because this all kind of dubtales on today. Uh, Micro Strategies. Tim came in and talked about that name and um I
[02:21:39] Strategies. I do have a Super Bowl in there that's in September. It's obviously getting smoked with stock down here, but I I I re I rearranged my call you'll look and see that. And then I also I think uh I don't know if I posted
[02:21:52] it yet, but I did sell a put uh as well in here at the 90 strike. Just looking at where stock is. I think I sold a put in September. I haven't posted that yet amongst trades, but Rocket Lab also sold a put in there. Um we trade that you did
[02:22:07] as well. Uh SpaceX, I cleaned up a bunch of things. Long story short, I got out of the uh you'll see a lot of trades in there. I cleaned up uh the put calendars that I had and I actually ended up putting on the Super Bowl bull trade
[02:22:20] like we talked about. I did it in September. So, um just to kind of what I ended up doing when you see all the different trades. Closed out some the different trades. Closed out some calendar put calendars. Did a uh a uh
[02:22:33] what did I say? A Super Bowl trade in September. Lulu closed out a short put September. Lulu closed out a short put for a gain. Micron um did that calendar uh that sorry that iron condor out in July hoping to see a inside up move like
[02:22:45] Mike said and um I did uh sell a put in MCL sold a put in SLV. So yeah, a lot yeah, go to the follow page and and take a look at all of these. >> Yeah, for sure. Lots of activity this morning. Uh shout out to the YouTube
[02:23:00] chat as well for joining us and chiming in. Um, but yeah, we've got tons of stuff today. And yeah, just a quick recap of the stuff that I got filled on. Uh, same story. We've got uh Micron
[02:23:17] trade. So, the 800 780 put spread with a 1300 1320 call spread. So, just a July 1300 1320 call spread. So, just a July 20 point wide iron condor. $6.50. And then I got rid of some of that credit to buy this butterfly 2 days out.
[02:23:30] credit to buy this butterfly 2 days out. 50 points wide. 1150 1200 1250 1 1200 is right at the expected move or near it. Uh so I like placing the short options near that strike uh just in case we get that inside up move. And if we do this
[02:23:44] $400 will turn into $800, $1,000, something like that. And the iron condor will likely also be a small winner if we get that inside up move. Uh so playing for that. But even if we get a downside move, as long as
[02:23:59] it's not too crazy, this butterfly will likely still hold on to some value. Uh even on a down move, maybe a dollar, $150, and the iron condor should come in too. So kind of a combo trade there. And then uh Google got into a long call
[02:24:14] diagonal spread, the 350, 370 here. Uh bought August, which is past the earnings announcement. Sold July, which is before the earnings announcement, 20 points wide. Bought that for $1690. And uh worst case scenario is goo Google
[02:24:28] chops around or sells off from here. And I can roll that 370 call from the July I can roll that 370 call from the July 17th cycle into the 30-day cycle, which is where the earnings announcements are or the earnings announcement will be. So
[02:24:40] premium at least >> and uh just go on about my day. But hopefully we get a rally prior to that. I can close that uh for a nice winner if that is the case. >> Um yeah, we had Justin Sacko on from
[02:24:54] Sacko Financial. He came and talked about uh wheel trades which uh kind of inspired us to put on those rocket labs uh today. And uh we talked to um Errol from the SEO floor. He came on uh talking about different things that he's
[02:25:08] earlier this morning who was the first person to mention Wendy's to us which again is interesting meme stock. We also discovered that TP knows nothing about he's never had any Wendy's but he loves Chicken Planet. So that's all good stuff
[02:25:22] to know. But yeah, we it's been busy man. We've had obviously we can't for I think I briefly mentioned it but Chris came on with a signal versus noise. Um and uh he will do another one of those for the uh YouTube page for one of the
[02:25:35] been u hitting well. People seem to like those. So it's been it's been a very And it seemed like it was going to be quiet, right? Like pre-market it seemed like the market was just fairly quiet. Wasn't much going to happen. And as soon
[02:25:48] as we opened, as people have been saying, we've gotten a lot of movement in a lot of different directions. And um I'm still not sure if this this 45 point see. >> Yeah. Uh if you like written content, we
[02:26:03] also have a earnings preview for Micron. We like to do these earnings previews for all the bigname tech stocks uh and all the bigname earning stocks. So check out tasty.com. You can go to the news and insights tab along the top there and
[02:26:15] you'll see a bunch of written content from Chris, Ilia, myself, uh related to the market movements each day. But yeah, kind of wild to see the A- Minis ripping higher here, especially when you consider gold down 3%, silver down 5%.
[02:26:31] Crude oil uh getting out of backwardation, which is really wild all regular expirations. We've talked about this before and how when you have these
[02:26:43] global tensions, you see this backwardation heighten and steepen, but now we've got a flat curve all the way across only three points between the 22-day and the 327day cycle. So, this thing has flattened out.
[02:26:56] uh the fear and the story has kind of been zapped out of this thing, but still 50% IV, we're kind of back down to those regular levels of implied volatility in crude oil. Um so we'll still be participating. I've got a short put in
[02:27:12] MCL taking some heat on it now with another three point down move, but I don't mind this. Uh there's not much extrinsic value left in this put. I'm interested to see if we look at the roll expirations. Uh, if we go to the
[02:27:28] furthest stated cycle in the same contract, that would be the 22-day. What rolled right now? So, yeah, I can still pick up a dollar even into this move where I'm seven points in the money. So, uh, I'll keep this on. I I'll keep
[02:27:41] rolling week to week. I think that's the move here. Um, I won't be able to pick up as much. I can still pick up a few shekels here. up 30 cents uh in terms of the net credit received on that role. But I want to say in the near term keep
[02:27:56] picking up that premium uh relative to time. And that's kind of the same story of like SpaceX. Liz brought that up to like doing near-term wheel strategies like doing near-term wheel strategies and just really capturing the near-term
[02:28:09] implied volatility as much as possible. U but we'll see. SpaceX also chopping U but we'll see. SpaceX also chopping around here. We've got it up uh to 157 now. This has had another nice intraday range already. High of 159, uh low of
[02:28:23] 150. So, this is to be expected with uh an IPO that everyone's paying attention to and uh although it's falling off the number one list on the top 25 stocks, it's still up there and it will continue to be up there uh every single day.
[02:28:37] >> It's off the pop charts. Um yeah, I just sold a strangle in CBRS post earnings. >> Yeah. Um, >> yeah, there's a lot of good trades out there, man. And, um, lots to do. So,
[02:28:50] >> I probably should have did a better one, but uh, I did the, uh, 150. Let's see. but uh, I did the, uh, 150. Let's see. What did I do? I did the 150. Um, >> Cool. >> Yeah.
[02:29:04] >> Uh, any final thoughts from the YouTube chat? Any final questions before we kick it over to Liz and Chris for the >> uh, let's see. Yeah. Will, uh, Micron stay on the top 20 list? That's a poll we got. Uh 83% said yes. 17% said no
[02:29:19] we got. Uh 83% said yes. 17% said no fate all the way. So lots uh yeah that the people have spoken for sure. >> I think this week it's got to be in the of earnings. Yeah. I mean it's naturally going to keep it propped up. But if I I
[02:29:33] would say the only way this removes itself from the top 25 list is if Micron has a 20% move to the downside. everyone gets out of it and it's just another >> Well, that's the thing. I think it'll You know what? I feel like the big down
[02:29:48] move would would create it being in top list. I feel like a big up move. I >> Yeah. >> Is it in the number one spot? >> You never know. Uh wow. E- Mini is up 55 now. NASDAQ up 225. Seeing a a bid here,
[02:30:02] morning. Hopefully you enjoyed the Trade follow page. We got all of our trades posted there. Uh, also check us to us. I'm at trader Mikey B there. Jamal is at Jamal Chandler. But we're
[02:30:18] going to kick it over to Liz and Chris for the next hour or so. You're watching Tasty Live. We'll see you in about 90 seconds.
[02:30:35] perfect. I would like to buy parkplace. >> There is no parkplace in this game. >> Yes, there is. I'm looking at it. >> I mine. Take it. >> It's mine. What?
[02:30:48] >> Okay. All righty. >> You know what? $500. >> $500 to the electric company if you want to keep all of your power on all these >> you can't negotiate. I landed on it. I can buy it if I want
[02:31:02] powerful thing here. >> Excuse me. to the one to the person who owns one property on Monopoly. This is the mayor and I'm overturning everything >> Excuse me. >> You're in over your cute little head.
[02:31:16] >> Don't patronize me. >> You don't come down to where the big chimps play and expect to get a banana, sweetheart. You got to earn it. Let's keep playing. >> Whoa.
[02:31:29] Whoa. No. My father was an I'm king No. My father was an I'm king You're very right. >> Did you even take the wallet?
[02:31:42] >> you eat my piece? >> You don't have a piece now. game. >> The dog is gone. You have nothing. I you're losing the game?
[02:31:54] >> You are clearly losing. Look at the board game. >> Every utility, two of the railroads and what do you just have? You buy a bunch of hotels and houses with what's in this market is ridiculous.
[02:32:07] A nice simple house on Mediterranean Avenue. A beautiful car worth 10 times more than your dog who is gone. Cut the deal with me. Come on. I quit. >> Then I win. [laughter]
[02:32:23] The old switch. I got you. I told you I'd never lose this game. I've always I'd never lose this game. I've always got a plan. And you fell for it. Boom! Shalaka!
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[02:33:22] >> What a difference a day makes though, right Chris? What a difference. the day we're down 100. Today we come in, we're up 53. Same same old feel.
[02:33:34] >> I feel so much less bad feeling less worse about that water heater now that bit here. >> There you go. There you go. Way to put question for you and I apologize asking you get on air. So yesterday you came in
[02:33:48] very impressed how clean shaven you were. You are one of those people who can grow a beard overnight. Unfortunately, it's it's it's a you know, >> this is amazing. And you know what? You
[02:34:01] could you could totally have some separate identities then. You could have could totally have a separate identity. >> I had my hair logged down on my the pictures here on air before when I had I did like a mustache. I did whole
[02:34:16] long hair. It was not It wasn't great. >> My wife um prefers prefers me not to experiment, right? That's all you can >> Yeah. Yeah. She's like, "You look like a
[02:34:30] like, "Well, I'm not the one who was kissing the creep. That was you." fair. That's very fair. Now, I do always agree with the women in your life. I This is what I said on the trading floor with all the There was way too many guys
[02:34:44] "Hey, listen. Here's the deal. I'm going to always be on her side. I don't care be on." [laughter] And that's how I shut it down pretty quickly. >> Yeah. >> Liz, uh, I'm thinking about happy
[02:35:00] similar vein here today, semis are bouncing back. The NASDAQ's up almost 710 of a percent right now. You mentioned what a what a difference 24 hours makes. Instead of having that volatility curve, backwardation in the
[02:35:14] there, the VIX three-month minus the VIX, it's back to two points wide again today. So what what was yesterday about? Did you get bothered by yesterday's sell off? Were there things under the covers that you know reminded you that today a
[02:35:27] >> So you [laughter] I in my in my heart of hearts, Chris, and we kind of touched on this a little bit. I I think that this is kind of lather, rinse, repeat. We're getting near like and I'm going to sound like I'm a broken record. June, end of
[02:35:39] month is end of quarter, end of month. And there is a lot of jittery markets and a lot of jittery rebalancing and a lot of jittery selling. And I've seen it skyrocket, it can plummet, it can go all over the place, but this quarter
[02:35:51] over the place, but this quarter particularly in my in my opinion um is is insane when you get up there. So, it's almost you get you get the the narrative. It's frothy about earnings. It's there's always a reason for the
[02:36:03] it after the fact, the reason why the market's acting like this, but it does before June, end of quarter, end of month. So, I didn't take too much away from it in there. Now, the volatility was is telling. I think the volatility
[02:36:17] is telling and and and it was just a blip. Now we're back. All's right with the world, Chris. We're fine. >> How often have we seen in recent weeks where you get this day where you get, you know, minus 2% - 3% in stocks, but
[02:36:30] next day you immediately have a snapback in equity markets. >> That I mean that was pretty pretty interesting, right? I mean, we both talked about the fact that the VIX only was 20 with that much of a down move and
[02:36:43] that violent of a down move and now we're back 18. I mean 1823 in the VIX all all's well that ends well. Now my question to you because all eyes are going to be on it. Uh well actually I have two and I will let you answer them
[02:36:56] in any order you want because you're the macro guy. We have PCE tomorrow. What do >> Is that is this a big is this a big number? Is this Christmas for you? Are you going to [laughter] you do you get up early just to go look and
[02:37:10] get ready for it? Talk to me. >> Not uh not for PCE unfortunately. There out of bed for. Although if I'm getting out of bed for non-farm payrolls today talk with the people that keep me gainfully employed here. Why I'm showing
[02:37:25] [laughter] up to work so late. But no, I mean, look, the the the inflation report, of course, it matters tomorrow. It matters uh because the Fed is now raise rates. At least the market thinks the Fed's going to raise rates. So, if
[02:37:38] you get any inkling of of higher price pressures coming through there, yeah, I mean, it could be problematic. But here's the good news. Oil is trading at barrel right now. >> It hit 69. We're in we're in the six.
[02:37:51] That's crazy. >> Handles. Diesel prices are back below $5 which has so many important knock on effects for transportation, freight, airlines, agriculture. Um everything uses diesel. The food that we get at our
[02:38:03] truck which uses diesel. >> And wait and I got I got to interrupt about this yesterday off air, but my brother owns a a large plumbing plumbing about diesel prices coming back down because he has lots of big diesel
[02:38:17] >> I'm sure. But that's that's, you know, and that's going to help with smaller are a lot of positive knock on effects from that happening. So we're back into the sevens now sixes in the CLQ6 contract. Um that means month over month
[02:38:30] negative energy impulse in the inflation data and moving forward there's going to be sequentially a negative impulse in the inflation data. So [sighs and gasps] end of the world right now. The inflation's in the system, but we could
[02:38:44] see some signs of deceleration or disinflation perhaps as early as tomorrow, which I think the market would absolutely love. Absolutely love. >> Okay. So, you and that number comes out at 7:30 my time. So, 8:30 your time,
[02:38:57] >> Yes, ma'am. >> Okay. And nothing else. Is there as numbers go? >> No, not in terms of the macro calendar. Micron's coming out today. Uh, I don't really see anything in the back half of
[02:39:09] the week that that draws too much um interests beyond that from the macro side of stuff. Uh, can't really personal income and spending. It's tomorrow. kind of important, right? Those are items with lifespans of three years or
[02:39:24] longer. So, airlines or airplane parts, automobiles, washers and dryers. People expenses unless they're confident in their financial future. That could even to make >> water heaters or water heaters. But
[02:39:37] that's [laughter] just that. >> Yeah. Right. So, so like those types of the long-term health of the consumer. So, like that's really it this week. Um there's some Treasury auctions going through, but I don't know. It's really
[02:39:49] why I have the SR3C6 contract here on the screen. It's quickly moved off the potentially 4.25 Fed funds rate earlier this week. We're now getting back close to four by the end of the year. So, a hike is being taken off the table given
[02:40:03] recent data. And if the PCE can get us back to 4%, a lot of that angst instant week or two can disappear. At least from my view. >> I like it. I like it. I mean, this is um it's it's all good stuff. So, you're
[02:40:15] saying that the the possibility of hike has come down? >> Yes, it's come down about uh about 15 basis points have been shaved off from >> What are the chances they talk about lowering?
[02:40:27] I don't think I so one of the reasons why uh Kevin War should all put together perspective on this which is to say that he just gave himself a six months buffer rates he can go to President Trump and say listen Mr. President, we want to get
[02:40:42] their work. If we cut rates, we're going to do so because we have the best data that it's time to do so. Let us do our job. Right. So, cuts next year could very well be possible, especially if we don't have any hikes this year.
[02:40:57] I was reading about this morning is that there's a possibility given where he that they're gonna that he could do something like that. But I agree with I that he did give himself a little bit of a buffer because he's got to appease
[02:41:11] >> He has a lot of people to uh to appease here. Um in terms of the uh auction really hasn't been much of anything. But I want to point to bonds here before we
[02:41:23] hop over into confirm and send. Liz, um I point that out because 10 years are bumping into their 50-day average. Again, this 1 month 50-day envelope technically speaking has really been firm resistance over the past few months
[02:41:35] getting ready to turn a corner here of sorts. So, some pressure coming off the uh uh uh you know the the side of the rates. Volatilities are low. So, obviously this wouldn't be a sell premium uh sell volatility type of
[02:41:48] of the money calls and see if you can get a little bit of positive price drift of my favorite charts to watch right now. bonds could be turning a corner, you're looking at the PCA or any of that stuff as a as a binary event, right?
[02:42:03] This is more of a a turn the corner kind of oil tinker turn the corner for lack to slowly slowly be. >> Okay. >> Yes. And you can see ZB here further removed from any of the impact of Fed
[02:42:15] >> It's already turned a corner of sorts already pushed through its 50day. So like small the curve is turning. Maybe there are opportunity in bonds. No one's looking there because I 5.7 IVR we can go to the raw V 8 who cares when you
[02:42:28] have SpaceX at 150 or Micron at like 17. >> Right. Right. Right. When you're selling this is this is an amazing opportunity, right? So, you kind of anytime you can over. If you were directional anyway, you don't care what the implied
[02:42:41] >> Absolutely. Hey, Liz, it's a great time to go to confirmance 10. We love when we over the course of the morning show. Let's pull it up. Uh we can go to the first question, Laura. Why not? It's Wednesday, June 24th. Liz, I'm gonna
[02:42:55] put on a butterfly earlier this week. I trade strangles and verticals all the butterfly in a real trade. Could you walk me through a specific example of choice? >> Okay, so this is a great question and
[02:43:10] it's actually kind of um there's a couple ways you can take a look at this. into butterflies and I know he put one on today in U Micron as well. So, if you want to see that on the follow feed,
[02:43:22] them when they sold an iron condor in the farther out term and they bought an upside 50point wide butterfly in Micron to the upside to capture some of that premium to the upside. So, I I believe they went into the the 2day and I want
[02:43:37] to say he did the 1050 1050 1100 1150 maybe even $30 wide. But when you're doing a butterfly this wide, it's a cheap way to make an upside play.
[02:43:49] So, if you're a butterfly is buying one, selling two, buying one, or for the old selling the guts. I know that sounds bad, but it is a butterfly. You're guts. And it's it's symmetrical. So, all you can lose is what you pay for it. And
[02:44:05] so, this is a way to say that I think that it's going to go up without actually outlaying that much capital. Now, forever give me there's a gotcha, right? So, if this goes up, you can make a couple hundred on it. um if it goes
[02:44:17] paid for it, but you've got you're paying $577 here for the the potential of making $4,000. Now, that uh it might have been a little bit narrower, but you could this is this is fine either way. But so, it's a it's a it's the
[02:44:32] got to remember that in options that flips the cards over. So, it's a lower probability trade. And what that that maximum that maximum profit is when you pin that center strike, when you hit that peak at expiration. So even if it
[02:44:47] about butterflies. Even if Micron goes directly to your middle strike tomorrow of $1,100, it will not be worth $4,000. It might be a little bit of a winner. It bit of a loser. You got to you got to nail that butterfly at expiration,
[02:45:01] >> right? And and so Oh, so go ahead. >> No, no, go ahead. I say and so the distance between the uh center strike and either wing minus the initial net position is going to be the net debit paid to enter the trade. So this it it
[02:45:16] the wings or you're not close to that center point of the trade. >> So and and I do like the way that they set them up. Mike and Jamal are very trade butterflies, I trade them in the nearer term. So I really like the setup
[02:45:29] in a two-day butterfly. I will have a hard time going out and trying to pin a strike in a 28 day, 38 day, 45day cuz it's hard to pin a strike so much instant gratification because these butterflies and don't open up. And I
[02:45:42] know that sounds crazy that open up profit potential doesn't happen until coming out of cocoon, it comes out at the end. and I like that too when I think about those selling premium trades, like let's
[02:45:55] condor. I don't want to do that on like one or two days. I'm going to do that and if I'm going to do something like this, I need the market to react right away. Otherwise, I'm just sitting on, you know, so uh that's shorter term,
[02:46:07] Jamal were executing this this morning specifically around Micron with their Laura, >> I want to say one more thing about a we don't mind. So, about the butterfly, the other thing about Micron is Micron's
[02:46:23] got a 92 rank. Butterflies trade cheaper when implied volatility is higher. And why is that? Because it is harder to pin a strike. So you'll see if you have something that's got a low low implied volatility, you're going to be paying
[02:46:36] because that volatility is saying it's not going to move. So it's easier to those are those are good for earnings plays and things of that nature because cheaper play.
[02:46:48] It's a great addendum. Uh Laura, let's go to the next question here. Okay, I always default to 45 DTE because that is what I learned. But when I look at the option chain, there's clearly more premium at the 60 or 90 days. Is
[02:47:03] the extra credit worth the extra time in the trade or does something about the the trade or does something about the math break down the further out you go? >> I feel like that's so conditional. It depends on the market situation you're
[02:47:16] in. For me, it's it's totally contextual. I don't really have I mean 45 days in 21 out is what we show in terms of optimal trade entry when you're looking to um you know before you get to the peak of the decay curve and start
[02:47:29] >> Yeah. >> But sometimes depending upon earnings meetings dep between strikes because you get eight Fed meetings a year. You could get these little wrinkles in volatility for you know binary event risk. So I
[02:47:43] than just saying well V's a little bit more expensive out at 60 days than 45. premium? There's a reason for that. And also, the position is going to move a your capital tied up for a longer period of time before you start to realize the
[02:47:57] potential profits that you're seeking. >> Very well said. I think that out at in at 45 out at 21 is what the people smarter than me, our research team has the yield curve or not the yield curve, the the theta decay curve is is the most
[02:48:12] beneficial. But I'm guilty as charged. I've gone I have actually gone in some things when you're looking at Tesla with huge volatility. I've gone down to the I've been selling puts in the yearlys, right? So I've gone 225 days and been
[02:48:25] like, "Oh, look at because once you go so far down with the premium, you can get a lot more for the buying power." So I'm guilty is charged. I think the if you have to say a rule, it's in at 45 out at 21. But once you understand the
[02:48:38] rules, >> you can kind of break them a little bit. doing what you're doing at the 45day, then you can kind of look to other >> Yeah. Like my parents had this rule like don't go into our bedroom when we're not
[02:48:52] like no, I need something from your realize I could just go in and then shut the door again and they wouldn't be any something. [laughter] So once you know the rules, then you
[02:49:04] know, you know, they're guidelines more than hard and fast. But there's a reason >> Yes. Once you learn the rules, you can learn how to break them. So yes, absolutely. >> Let's go to the next question.
[02:49:18] >> I never traded a calendar because having one leg in one expiration, another in another or different month makes me feel like I'm managing two separate trades at once. Can you walk me through a real example so I can see how the two legs
[02:49:30] actually work together? This really is a question for Jamal. He's like uh he sausage king of Chicago. He calls himself the calendar king of Chicago. He truly does. No, he does it. He He has made calendars fun because calendars to
[02:49:46] those are the durational calendars where you're at at, you know, your 30 days, 60 days. So, honestly, I'm going to I'm going to use a different example with here. When you put a trade on that's crossing two months, it's on as it's on
[02:49:59] as a package, off as a package. And it kind of reminds me a little bit of when when my father-in-law started trading, he understood buying stock. Like, he money. So, he would buy the stock and I taught him how to sell a call against
[02:50:12] it. And then I would get phone calls saying, "I'm making so much money on my stock, but I'm losing on this call." And I I I it was hard to explain, but I was like, "These are now once you once you enter them, they are a package. You want
[02:50:26] defined your risk. You've done all of the things." And so, a calendar, you want it to go to it, not through it, right? So, you're it's it's very similar butterfly. They have a very similar nature. you want to pin a certain
[02:50:40] strike. That's that's a calendar home home run is pinning a strike. So if you calendars where what he's looking for is a little bit of move towards it and you can take it off for a small profit. It's kind of counterintuitive Chris to the
[02:50:53] selling, we know you want to take it off at 50%. 20% is calendar home run. Say you pay $5 on a calendar and you can take it off for you can sell it for six. >> How how would you structure this around something like let's say SMH? We don't
[02:51:07] of the earnings. Maybe it's AMD, but we're going to go to SMH. >> Would you look at something like the 2358 here? Um, you know, thinking about volatility decay. So, you want to be I would want to be short the near-term
[02:51:20] >> You know, this could this thing bounce back to 670 over the next few days? get up there around micron earnings. So, why not go short the 670 at 23 and long the 670 at 58? >> So, absolutely. Now, calendars are
[02:51:34] structured that way. your short, the near-term, um long the further out term. of look at, so this is this is old school old school. I'm talking about different cycles. You're selling the near-term, you're buying the other one
[02:51:47] with the same strike. It's defined risk. You can only lose what you paid for it. But what we would like to do is if we were if we remain in a bubble and SMH all. And implied volatility doesn't move at all. If you look at this calendar,
[02:52:00] can I see the front month 670? You're paying you want to pay less for the calendar than what the extrinsic value of that 670 is in the in the front >> Sorry about that. >> No, no, you're good. Yeah, there you go.
[02:52:14] let's just I'm just going to talk through a very bizarre example here. So, you're paying $18 for this calendar, right? So, if we remain in a bubble and all things remain equal and SMA and time just marches on, this one will roll off
[02:52:27] and you will be left with one that has about 23 over 23 days left. And so, you've only paid $18 for something that could that could possibly be worth 20 because so if your days are symmetrical, so meaning if you've got 25 days and 50
[02:52:41] in the long, you want to make sure that you're not paying more for the calendar than the the value of the front month. If time marches on, then it becomes a higher probability trade. And I know that's kind of in the weeds and I know I
[02:52:54] do kind of get in the weeds sometimes, but that just shows like you you're Even if SMH does not move towards your calendar, you can still make money, distinction here again. Hey, we only have three minutes left. We need to get
[02:53:07] know I do. >> We need to get to our next trade here. think we have one more here from this morning. Um works. I've never sold a call because the idea of unlimited risk scares me. Is
[02:53:21] the strategy on the table by only playing one side? Well, first off, if you're selling puts naked, that is also a high degree of risk. It's not technically unlimited, right? But it it's a still a very high degree of risk.
[02:53:35] And in these markets, perhaps trading a little bit more of a defined risk manner um is appropriate. But I yeah, I I think that you should have every tool in the some people who come into the market as equity bulls and so the idea of like
[02:53:47] selling a call spread is uh you know I'll say nauseating. I certainly get you sell calls? Are you kidding? Are you out of your mind Ilia? What are you bringing that here to me for? Get out of here. But depending upon the context you
[02:54:00] should absolutely absolutely consider it. Um I think that's actually one of the benefits that coming from the Spotify world Liz you it's not just long guaranteed to be short the dollar. So you kind of get that oh I can't short
[02:54:13] head. It's a psychological thing. You should absolutely figure out ways to strategy deck into your into your portfolio or your toolbox. to. If you want to sell a naked put and sell a call spread with it just to see
[02:54:27] least some premium, but you're not it's not unlimited risk to the upside. Dip a toe in the water. >> Do it small. Do it small. Keep it in a in a a small product. It could be a single stock with just a single contract
[02:54:40] on both ends. try it out. And you great bring up this great point. It's a very Stanley Ducken Miller point. Uh invest and investigate. You know, you can paper but sometimes you actually got to feel the heat to understand what you're
[02:54:54] to understand what they're cooking with. And like I said, I'm watching it right they're not grasping anything until there's actually real money on the >> Yeah. Consequences. They need to be there. Hey, we only have about a minute
[02:55:08] markets seeing that stocks are coming back in over the course of our little 30 minutes here. Uh I'm looking to see a run up in a few things right now. I have a a a trade queued up in gold down here
[02:55:21] and we're getting pretty close to my level um right below 4020. That's the swing low that we have in November of 2025 before gold made its big John up towards $5,600 an ounce. And so sitting right near this $4,000 psychological
[02:55:33] level, I'm trying to scalp further into a gold position. I started with one last became clear that their rates may be going up soon. At least it's a conversation they're discussing in 10. $1 in gold is equal to one point here.
[02:55:45] So if gold moves a h 100red bucks then 10 it's a $100 swing whereas it's 10 times that when you go to MGC and then 10 times that when you go to the GC product. Um so I'm going to look to get short here. 4hour close below 4020. I'm
[02:55:58] going to add another leg in to a 10Z short position here because the metals really ugly. was >> and you and Tim Knight both like I was that he's going to become a metal uh a metal bear. Well, he's been a bear for a
[02:56:10] side. I actually sold a put spread but pretty far out, pretty far down because I think it's not going to go beneath 38. I'm talking GC contract, but I don't think it's going to go beneath 38 38 3,800. I was going to say 38,000 and I
[02:56:23] almost stopped myself there. I don't think I I sold the 3,800 3780 just a $20 Y just catching some premium because you are getting the pendulum in gold Meaning if you get whips to the upside, you get high implied volatility and if
[02:56:37] you get whips to the downside, you get high implied volatility. So the the put win. >> We both could win. Dow's up 1%, Russell's up 1%, S&P 610, NASDAQ about 210 here. Semis are off the lows, but
[02:56:50] that's what this market's waiting on. Liz, we're taking a brief break here. We'll be back later on today. Of course, uh I'll be back with Glenn. Actually, Dr. Jay's out. So, I'll be sitting with Glenn for Futures Power half hour, 2:30
[02:57:05] lots of great Tasty Live program programming coming at you. Before then, we'll take a brief break and we'll see everyone on the other side.
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[03:08:47] live from the SIBO. Uh Gus and I have some trade ideas for you guys. Going to before we get into everything today, brother Gus, how are we doing today? day. Lots of going on behind us on the floor right now. I'm looking a little
[03:09:00] this side of my collar. So you all you all have to pardon me. I'm still still a nice color. I like the polos. >> Thank you. Yeah, I uh it's a just a golf good. But maybe I should button the top. Is that is that what needs to happen?
[03:09:14] >> Well, we'll we'll figure it out. >> Gus is a beast of a guy, right? So, you going to rip. It's going to pop off a little bit here. Uh but I mean, with on over here? >> Yeah, let's go platform. We can uh we
[03:09:27] Uh micro strategy, I think, is is what I would like to talk about first here. uh Micro Strategy below $100 for for the first time in a couple of years now. Um MSTR >> MSTR I was like Micron MU.
[03:09:42] >> No, understandable. Um but yeah, Micro Strategy sinking. Uh Bitcoin obviously Uh Micro Strategy obviously holds the most Bitcoin of of any public company in bring them down along with it. But as I talk about all the time, you know, Micro
[03:09:57] Strategy kind of a leveraged vehicle to get Bitcoin exposure. Uh I unfortunately on account of that expecting a recovery in Bitcoin but as Bitcoin continues to Strategy coming down along with it they're currently trading around 97.
[03:10:11] >> Yeah. No 100%. I mean as we look at Micro Strategy here uh it almost kind of looking at but I know we have earnings on Micro Strategy uh coming earnings July 30th. >> Yeah. When all you can do is hold
[03:10:23] Bitcoin. Do earnings really matter? >> I feel like we kind of know what their earnings are right now. Their cost basis on Bitcoin I think is something like 78. So they are underwater, but I'm sure they are loading immense amounts. And
[03:10:36] reveal is is that they've been been doing a bunch of buying down here at 60. double down when you're underwater. Just droll for it like MSTR does. Just double quoted as saying uh sell your kidneys and buy a bit home [laughter] is the
[03:10:51] to this. So >> I gota interesting development there. Um Wendy's also also deserves some attention. Wen Wen. talked a lot on this show recently about about McDonald's, about Shake Shack,
[03:11:04] and, you know, Wendy's always always kind of goes unnoticed, down 50% in the last year here. Uh, but we have a uh interesting situation going on here as they switched out their CFO today and simultaneously, Reddit began to take
[03:11:17] how much short pressure there was, and began doing some buying. So, retail property is up right now. Uh, 23% of Wendy's shares are currently sold short. going on and should those shorts need to buy buy some shares to uh you know cover
[03:11:33] at a short squeeze here on Wendy's. I wouldn't throw around that word just yet. Uh we are we're up 25% right now, but it is is certainly beginning to squeeze here. >> I wonder who's getting squeezed. Uh
[03:11:45] McDonald's CEO, Burger King CEO, who's shorting who's shorting Wendy's right >> Uh great point. >> But yeah, we got Micro Strategy, we got you today? >> Uh yeah, Neta. Uh I alluded to it on
[03:11:58] announced that they are going to roll out uh their next gen of uh >> AI glasses, the glasses at at 299 a pair. They're really trying to make a push to uh they believe the future does not lie in smartphones. It lies in smart
[03:12:13] themselves for for that future that we we evolve into a world where yeah, no anymore and everybody's just do doing things with their hands. at first. I thought maybe it was going to be the watch piece of technology that
[03:12:27] could kind of transition us from the cell phones to I don't know just looking know, sending messages from our wrist, too. But I don't know, maybe it'll be maybe it'll be the glasses to kind of >> eat up the phone side of the industry.
[03:12:39] >> It seem to serve as more of a accessory to to the phones than they do a possible that we could see the glasses replace this. I mean, it's it's what I was getting at, you know, when I initially was starting to, you know, buy
[03:12:51] I got my MetaQuest for the first time is I was like, you know, this is really completely envelops you into this possibility that people could start to want that practically in in their
[03:13:05] to do whatever you want throughout your entire field of vision. And I think the Obviously, you can't realistically expect everybody to throw on a big bulky mention that the battery life on that thing is like 90 minutes fixing.
[03:13:19] >> I counted you timed it. >> Uh but yeah, no, I'm looking forward to spectacles with Snapchat. That's been getting a little bit more popular. And I know the spectacles with Snapchat, it's a little bit of that um not the not the
[03:13:31] uh virtual reality, but it's a little bit more of that augmented reality. If reality, it's whenever you can kind of see those holograms within your field of world. So, I think one of the best examples that I've seen from Snapchat
[03:13:44] in your living room and by being able to see if you want to have this couch. number two, to see if it will look good. >> Yeah, that seems pretty practical. reality stuff as well. I have a little bit of experience. It's kind of cool. I
[03:13:58] being able to put as many TVs as you want in your field of vision at any you're a sports guy, especially >> Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. If you're trying to once or whatever. I will, because I'm a maniac, I already have two TVs in my
[03:14:12] those on and then I will put on MetaQuest so that I can have a third and fourth TV in my living room, but obviously not where where they could >> over stimulation fears this guy. >> Yes, it's true. It's It's a lot to
[03:14:26] commercials. If you have four American professional sports games on at one happening in one or two of them at once ever. like there there's so many you're watching these things simultaneously and you kind of pick up
[03:14:39] >> Yeah, I actually just as a sidebar, but I I do carry that thesis. The more the more that you can watch multiple sports at once, however many monitors or TVs notice that it is constantly commercials. The number of times I will
[03:14:52] have three plus games on simultaneously and they are all on commercial at the impossible, but it happens so often. Hey, well, if you can watch four games portfolio of multiple trade positions at one time
[03:15:05] with with Snap and the Spectacles, I just don't know what they're doing. don't have any headway in this market. Like, if you were going to jump into splash, you needed to do something innovative, and they just like remade
[03:15:19] Google Glass. Even worse, I mean, it's not even like, you know, when Google whatever that was. There was at least like a cool like spy kid, tech bro sort of vibe to them. They they looked ridiculous, but there was like almost an
[03:15:33] just look ridiculous. >> It looks like I'm about to throw They >> Literally, that's what >> Yeah, they just look ridiculous. Full stop. There there is there is no lore. It's just a giant bulky pair of glasses.
[03:15:46] And meanwhile, you have Meta rolling out these sleek, good-looking Ray Mans. They going to help them make a lot of headway with women, I think, who who probably generalize, but you know, tech things often adapted by by males first. Uh, and
[03:16:00] with Ky Jenner is brilliant. Those glasses look really good. I mean, they just look like something that could be from Cardier to me. So, uh, yeah, I'm I'm I'm really bullish on on the Meta Glasses uh, moving forward. I think I
[03:16:12] think that the thesis is correct really that that we might be ready to move away talked about how Apple has done nothing innovative in years now. It feels like, they're rolling out a whole new product or the phones change considerably.
[03:16:25] to have. It feels like that's really stagnated. I don't want to say that I be getting close. And should there be an evolution, I think AR is probably what >> Definitely riding the wave of Steve Jobs and seeing how long that could go uh for
[03:16:39] innovation down the road. But I feel like this is a great opportunity for a little bit. Yeah, >> it's not going to be me. That's that's a >> yeah, I think Google is partnered with Wayfair now as well, or unless unless
[03:16:51] Google does have their own AR glasses coming as well that I think can hang Meta. But this the stuff that Snap is trying to do. I mean, like genuinely, it Like I'm just [laughter] like this is
[03:17:04] shot that Snap is going to take in years. Our glasses the size of your head. It's preposterous. So, yeah, I don't know that I'm uh I'm necessarily think it'll go to zero just because Snapchat still has such a stronghold and
[03:17:16] advertising there. Uh oh my gosh, they do so good with advertising there. O you to see an ad. They they will they will send you an ad like a message. It's preposterous. Uh so yeah, I just they'll be fine, but I don't see this as a
[03:17:31] think it's a growth strategy for Meta. >> Yeah. No, 100%. I I'll definitely need the World Cup games. Maybe you have England playing over here, US, Mexico, >> And and the connectivity that that Meta is is promising with these is is very
[03:17:46] Meta Quest to me is that when you go to these virtual environments or just any virtual environment, if you interact MetaQuest, if you just high-five each other, you can follow each other on
[03:17:59] think that all of a sudden with these glasses emerging, we're moving into a connected. And perhaps some people think that that's creepy. Perhaps that's a valid argument to make. Uh but I think that it will just, you know, up up the
[03:18:13] connectivity of everything and, you know, uh bridge. I don't know. Anything know, uh bridge. I don't know. Anything that makes us more connected more easily has proven to be successful over the past 20 years.
[03:18:25] huh? Connecting people. And then also it's almost like some virtual virtual five and connect with each other online. >> Yeah. And also if Meta does manage to if if Meta is right in this prediction in a world where AR glasses become the new
[03:18:39] thing and begin to replace smartphones, then all of a sudden that also feeds primary messaging app because that is Meta's iMessage. And then all of a sudden that's a huge inflow of people to to that messaging app as well. So it,
[03:18:51] you know, rising tide raises all boats. >> Yeah, 100%. Uh, with that being said, I portfolio. I actually had to do a lot of trade management today. So, uh, got some long delta on in the oil in the oil products.
[03:19:04] >> I know. This is a record right now. Not only that, uh, I mean we have a little bit of a a little bit of a a variety, right? We got SpaceX in there. Uh, and variety that we have because the other two products is oil uh, and the overall
[03:19:18] market which is NASDAQ. So, I had to manage a position today on oil. Oil here. catching a lot of momentum to the downside. So, because this is a futures well. It's not something I really want to sit in and absorb that draw down for
[03:19:32] there. I'd rather cut the position, cut the trade, manage the risk, and then reposition whenever we find an area that would be a little bit more favorable for us in terms of risk-to-reward. So, we're going to be patient there. But, we did
[03:19:44] one, we sold an out of the money put spread $5 wide. We collected about a I collected two bucks. So, we got about $300 worth of risk uh on this one. And
[03:19:56] comfortable, right? Since it's not that futures product, I don't have to sit in all that draw down. The risk is defined, the profit is defined. A little bit of an easier position advantage there. And um speaking of USO, speaking of oil, a
[03:20:10] little bit of SpaceX, right? As NASDAQ tries to rally towards its highs, tries really affecting, you know, what SpaceX is doing over here. And I know we bought that call yesterday. We're down a little bit on that, but if you want to real if
[03:20:22] managing some of these positions, you can definitely come to the follow page. more in my two cents and what we're going to be doing and how we're going to be managing these trades a little bit. So, for example, uh, we bought the QQQ
[03:20:34] contract yesterday and we're going to try and hold that to today's lows or the got to that price point today and then it and then just rocketed back up to the upside. So, uh, we're going to be patient there. See what we can do with
[03:20:47] these contracts and and, uh, just manage these positions as volatility starts to expand and contract fairly quickly. >> Yeah, this uh, this this USO position that I have, my my long puts is just like the such a lesson in in why you you
[03:21:01] shouldn't when it's time to sell volatility, sell the volatility. Uh, like I I I've I've harped on this for a long time, but just so so brain dead of the ball when oil was off the highs. uh and or I should I the V isn't even
[03:21:14] call skew the call side premium. I I should have gone at it that way. Buying these puts has just killed me. This is day I don't even know how many in a row of oil continuing to move down and I'm just still red because theta is just
[03:21:27] eating me faster than oil can possibly come down. I do have 180 days left on the short the shortest one of them at a 65 strike. So it is certainly redeemable like the 80 level or something like that. USO that is. Uh but I I'm not
[03:21:41] next 180 days even as we continue to sync. So I don't know just a really a great lesson in how you need to before you get involved. >> Yeah. No, I mean I mean the the the
[03:21:54] move in oil is definitely picked up fairly quickly. So again, if you have a don't doubt that we could even get into a little bit more of a favorable range there. Uh but just taking a quick look at USO here, we have the Fibonacci tool.
[03:22:08] of this run and then we took it all the way to the high and we tweaked the settings just so we can kind of see the quadrants uh in in quarters just to see of sitting right now and just within a few weeks you know we went to the top of
[03:22:22] that range almost sitting at the at the third quartile of that range on USO there. So it's really a testament to how the velocity of oil has picked up to the downside. Not only that we're getting gaps in oil and we're following through
[03:22:34] change in behavior that we've seen in oil that we haven't seen actually over continuous rally. >> Yeah, I think this is a great a great to just show, you know, how how pronounced that this has been. I don't
[03:22:47] usually use fib retracement when I'm looking to, you know, get get into a are more valid things. Uh but when you just want to understand the the severity time to break it out. >> Yeah, absolutely. We'll continue to keep
[03:23:01] put spread, so we got a little bit of time on that. Um, outside of that, disappointing. Uh, but at at the same time, I will say volatility is a volatility in both directions. Yesterday, we purchased a call and then
[03:23:15] spread. Um, we're getting a little bit of a rally to uh a rally today, but high. So, it'll be interesting to see if we can continue to rally off that IPL low at around 150. And if we do, these trades should pan out pretty well. Um,
[03:23:30] This line down here is again where the SpaceX IPOed at and we'll be patient a dip down there a couple times and continue to get bought up. It seems to IPO price. >> Well, yeah. I mean, it's it's like I was
[03:23:44] when you're still this fresh off IPO, it's like how many people could could possibly be in below 150 that that you know, it's selling at 148 is still a profitable exit. Like I I think that IPO price has to stay as a as a pretty firm
[03:23:57] hype. Obviously, we see companies sink back below their IPO price all the time. equation. And when you're talking about a company that, you know, is is is valued this high and is projected to increase in value by orders of magnitude
[03:24:11] in the coming years and and has this much hype, I just I don't really see it price at least for the next two weeks or so until the initial, you know, hype pop >> Man, if we if we poke back to another high, that'll be that'll be awesome. uh
[03:24:25] positions as well at the same time if we can get something like that. Uh but 1826 right now. Uh we're pulling back a little bit as we've gotten the rally and all the indices uh towards the beginning part of this day. Um and again in in 18
[03:24:39] pulling back. Uh we're not the highest levels that we've seen before, but um opportunity to manage some of those positions there. Um, and with that being
[03:24:51] watches, we'll go ahead and check out what's up the most on the day. See before we do that, actually, let's check out some Micron and Sandis. >> Sure. You done it. Yeah. >> Yeah. I obligatory Micron SanDisk check.
[03:25:04] >> Uh, I did get long some sandisk yesterday while we were on air. Uh, it the 1930, but I'm not concerned. 30 DTE left on these. Needed over 2,000 by that been a little bit of expansion such that I am up uh it's moved down uh $50 now
[03:25:19] since since my spot where I put this on and yet I am up uh something like 10% on on this position. So got got things moving moving in the right direction the more confident that I'm going to wind up with a profitable exit here.
[03:25:32] >> Yeah. No $50 nothing but a drop in the bucket on a name like this. Um but kind as well. We kind of got that gap down finally a little bit of a change of of poked through yesterday's lows, but we're kind of holding. We're not really
[03:25:46] uh continuing to sell off from here. So, I mean, if we look at it from a larger time frame perspective, I mean, structure hasn't even really broke to this could be another dip just in the uptrend that we're sitting in right now.
[03:25:58] out, but they're definitely holding. They still got a lot of momentum in it. >> I I ain't scared. I ain't scared. >> They giving it up that easy. >> If I You know how hilarious it would be if I tried to short SanDisk three times
[03:26:11] on the runup. If I short it at 800, 1,000, and 1,200, and I get it wrong all finally decide to get long is when it actually decides to come down. That that gust price action that I have ever seen in my life.
[03:26:24] >> you know, you know. >> Yes, that's very well put. interesting phenomenon with with these memory stocks. And uh I I I don't think
[03:26:36] convicted in my belief that the run isn't over that I'm like getting long here thinking about leaps or anything like that. Uh but you know it's it's I've been using with SpaceX. If I if I come to you and I say I'm I'm a genie
[03:26:49] and I'm from a year in the future and SanDisk is 3000. Are we surprised at So I I certainly think there's there's more room to be had to to the upside. Uh but you know I I've also [clears throat] said 101 times that uh evaluation aside
[03:27:04] these these things have to breathe sometime just just to to continue to order of things. So uh yeah perhaps this one month that I'm long Sandis will be higher highs. >> Um no I I I mean the momentum is still
[03:27:18] I'm not comfortable getting short yet either. So hopefully momentum sustains a with that being said not too much going on in the portfolio. We did a little bit of scalping and and and uh the micro NASDAQ today. We were taking a brief
[03:27:31] up cutting that into the profit because of that large reversal that we had seen looking to get back down to today's lows and a little bit further. We didn't get that how to manage the risk. Uh but we'll let that $36, you know, finance
[03:27:45] that two that 275 on the oil contracts that we got over there. And then we'll >> That's math. Math's math. 36 finances 27. It's a number. >> It's a number. It's less than 275 this year. I mean, it's like it's like a 20%
[03:27:58] >> You know, I'm I'm running to the store. >> Life is about perspective. [laughter] Life is about all about perspective and how you perceive things. So, now with that being said, uh, as we start to wrap here, anything else going to be top of
[03:28:11] >> We actually got 12 minutes left here. We're getting the ball late start. So, [laughter] >> Yeah. But, uh, I uh, yeah, I would I don't know. I would draw some attention to um I've I've lost what I was just
[03:28:26] BuzzFeed. We we haven't talked about this position in a little while. Uh I am short BuzzFeed. Uh this is one where I I genuinely do think that this company goes to zero. I I make jokes about a firm. I just made a joke about Snap, but
[03:28:39] BuzzFeed this thing could go to zero. Bankruptcy for real. BZ FD, sorry, is the answer to your question. Um but yeah, this just I'm just not buying it. Uh, for those who who weren't here, I I got short um off the off the highs on
[03:28:54] they hired a new CEO. I just I don't like what this this this new CEO's whole thesis. I don't like that they kept the former president on. I I harped time and time again about if you're if you're doing a hostile takeover. It was it was
[03:29:07] a buyout, I should say, not a new CEO. If you're doing a hostile takeover, be hostile, okay? Please. when when you're buying a failing company, which is what buying a hostile takeover, is a company that is failing or at least lagging and
[03:29:20] better, don't keep people around. And they decide that they're going to keep founder and president of BuzzFeed on as president of BuzzFeed AI now or the They're going to keep him on as president of BuzzFeed AI as they try to
[03:29:33] make any sense to me. the dude couldn't manage regular Buzzfeed to any sort of is some kind of expert on AI and we're going to put him on that team. I just I saying, "Oh, well with the power of AI, we can compete with YouTube." What? It's
[03:29:49] the guy standing in front of the whiteboard and it says, "Use AI question bigger than YouTube." Like that's that's how that's how this business plan sounds to me. Like I don't understand how those two things translate. Where does AI help
[03:30:05] you begin to compete with YouTube? I don't buy it. So anyway, I have 25, don't buy it. So anyway, I have 25, count them, uh, puts, long puts, 205 days to expiration at the 50 cent strike. Uh, so with with those in the
[03:30:18] tank, um, just looking for this to continue to sink, ideally back below a conclusion. There might be in the next 200 days some kind of headline that props this up briefly, but I think I think the air comes out of this thing to
[03:30:32] We're talking about a 75 cent stock as as I near expiration. >> Oh wow. It is a 75. Well, the volatility that that that's occurring in this would would make you not believe this is a 75 cent stock. Recognize that. So I mean
[03:30:45] >> Yeah. I mean they were like they were bankrupt. I mean this buyout is like just dragging them off the floor and trying to do something with them. And >> There's no way they're not selling shares on the inside with a pop like
[03:30:57] actually believe this is going to be successful. They're probably going to as we get this pop because they might not be back at these price levels again. BuzzFeed was a literal penny stock. >> Yeah. And I'm I'm not calling this this
[03:31:11] face in my brain right now. But I'm not calling him a BS artist. I think he believes what he is saying. I just think what he is saying is implausible and not going to come to fruition. So that's why I'm short. I actually maybe should let
[03:31:24] horizon on these, but I have I have no faith in this company. Gaps like to get filled. There's been no tangible change in valuation since the buyout. Uh just different and people being excited to pick up a penny stock. And I, you know,
[03:31:38] stocks, I always just think you get a little bit of extra undeserved pop just because it's a penny stock. somebody through CNBC or whatever, sees that BuzzFeed got bought out and then they
[03:31:50] this is a $1 stock. Let me let me let me take a shot. I'll buy 50 shares of this." And I think that that sort of sentiment permeates a little bit and can drive things higher than they deserve. So, I think that the initial rally up to
[03:32:03] 150 where we're at now is sort of due to that. Just people, you know, scalping grabbing a bunch of shares and then getting back out. And now we have it. >> No, I love it. I love it. Uh not a big
[03:32:18] uh Buzzfeed stand either. So, well, we'll watch it divine. >> I I I used it in their prime when when you could, you know, you could say uh watched, learn what kind of fruit you are or whatever. That was that was all
[03:32:31] >> I liked BuzzFeed Unsolved back in the day. Shout out to Shout out to Ryan and still keep up with them. Uh, but yeah, I just I think everything good about this It's the we can compete with YouTube thing that really puts me off. What does
[03:32:45] I don't think you can. I don't think you can. This is my challenge me you can compete with YouTube. I don't believe that you can. I'm happy to be >> Agree. Maybe he's speaking to some investors. Got to keep them excited,
[03:32:58] mean, they get they get very strategic in terms of what they say on some of doesn't when it doesn't add up there's usually a different message between it time where he just buys it says AI AI AI and then it goes up 200%. It's like why
[03:33:12] >> if it ain't broke. >> It's true. >> Not at all. >> Um I keep getting jump scared by this forgetting that I put this on. It was like a like an afterthought on air some
[03:33:26] time ago. I got long corn. Uh but it's working. Corn has has taken a slight initially in the in the three days immediately following this position, it it got right back to over 17. I have a 1617 short put spread here. Um,
[03:33:41] and I was like, I'm a commodities trader. Get get me in the field. We're a >> I'm going to flip this up. Um, kind of sank back to below 17 now, but I I do more of a pure technical analysis play than I would usually like to get
[03:33:56] involved with and and particularly with a commodity where technical analysis matters less than anywhere else in my opinion. Uh but I think that any old schmuck like myself can just open up the charts here and see that uh we we
[03:34:08] haven't been below 1650 in years and years and years uh and assume that this is a a fair spot to buy. So uh yeah, never never great to to fly as blind as it's going to work out for me. I have 58 days left on that one. There we go. And
[03:34:23] volatility in these corn products right now, too. I think these don't get a lot >> Yeah, it's just it's my favorite ticker. You know, I I got to do one trade on corn here. They took cow for me. Or maybe it was cows. They took my favorite
[03:34:36] my other favorite a ETF. So, I have to provide some liquidity to to the one that to the one that that still exists. >> Yeah. We We can't let these fun tickers die. Everyone's excited about the NASA ticker. Big fancy new whatever. Corn. I
[03:34:49] basics sometimes. Um, no. I mean, as this market we're kind of flat on the day right now. Uh, we're up just a little bit in some smaller time frame, we can get a better idea on how we kind of just been
[03:35:03] Really have no decisive direction in terms of what the market wants to do. upside. We put in some new lows, a little bit of lower lows. Uh, we took continue to rally to the highs, and then once again, we're sitting right smack in
[03:35:17] the middle of that range. So for a scalper, maybe some opportunities you opportunities, but in in terms of being a little bit more of a directional trader for the day, uh the market hasn't made any decisive decisions. So I know
[03:35:29] >> Has it has it made any indecisive decisions? And I mean, it it took back a little bit of our profit for the day. Again, we got to scalp out, I guess, 36 bucks out of the micro NASDAQ today. Um but after we
[03:35:43] like, I have no read on the market personally. I'm going to stay a little bit hands off until we can make a little bit more confident and convicted no, whenever we do get another sell off towards these lows, we're going to be
[03:35:55] looking to take off this put contract that we had put on yesterday. Uh, and that we had sold, which we'll most likely be managing by the end of this check out these trades Gus and I have been putting on, go ahead and follow us
[03:36:08] platform. You can keep up with some of the things that we have going on here, especially managing that SpaceX position. I know SpaceX is like SpaceX Uh but the volatility is definitely
[03:36:20] did in SpaceX. I >> SpaceX I I bought a call that expires whenever we just get that directional movement, which you could argue could couple hundred bucks and maybe just let the put spread ride a little bit longer
[03:36:34] bought the call and then we sold an out of the money put spread. That one expires in about 58 days. Just $5 wide. We collected I think just a little bit over a third of the width on that one. >> I see. It's it's that time of year where
[03:36:46] I have to remind everybody that July 17th is the calendar emoji in your phone. If you find yourself the July 17th expiration, they have an emoji for that specifically if you're if you're posting about it. Uh yeah, I I I recall
[03:36:58] Yeah, I went just slightly longer than you. 162 and a half 165 short post spread there and then laded in with a 19200 at 358 June 17th of next year. Um,
[03:37:10] short-term bull thesis and a long-term bull thesis. I don't have the bare thesis for you. Do you want to see me to be bearish about SpaceX? Look somewhere else. I don't know. Maybe one of these guys behind us can tell you about it.
[03:37:22] not a whole lot of action. Just just management for me. Uh, I got those two new positions that I that I put on yesterday um that that I post posted said for anybody interested. Uh, and kind of just just tracking from there.
[03:37:36] be in the same boat again. We got oil indices uh and SpaceX thrown in a bone bag for the day if you will. >> Can I get somebody let me know is there is there a market on like poly market couch somewhere where I can bet on how
[03:37:51] long it takes SpaceX to be added to a major indicy major major index I suppose is the is the singular form of that. Somebody let me know. I am curious. I market question for you here as we as we begin to wind things down. Um, do you
[03:38:04] we're in right now takes us down below like 28,500 on on NASDAQ? Like do you think we take out the the local lows >> Let's go ahead and zoom out a little bit over here as we take a look at NASDAQ.
[03:38:17] >> So I know we have some lows over here on NASDAQ at about 28,630. You were saying >> No, I was saying 285. >> Oh, 285. 285. I do. I do. I I am bearish below there. And >> these positions are kind of reflecting
[03:38:30] think we're at a pretty pretty pinnacle moment right now. I mean we had a pretty yesterday about a thousand points to the downside. Uh as you can see if I zoom in dogee candle just letting us know that we're pretty much still trading at the
[03:38:44] open price. So I think today is going to really set the tone for the rest of the really set the tone for the rest of the week. And I think um Thursday and Friday will give a little bit uh of a more conclusive idea on what you know you
[03:38:56] positions. So, with that being said, if we continue to sell off lower and if we likely hold those short deltas a little bit lower um and then probably manage continue to trade higher. >> Yeah, I I I fear that we may be entering
[03:39:10] from like October to March, you know, where where we just we we start to test little bit more intuitive to me. I don't really know why, but yeah, I think we I it's going to be a rangebound couple of months is is sort of my prediction.
[03:39:25] firm rejection off 7,600 two times now. Weren't even able to get back and test 7,600 the second time to be more exact. Uh this this just this feels like channel action to me. It feels like we've gotten the move up over 7500 and
[03:39:37] we'll see how things pan out. I still have slight long bias in my portfolio, we're on. >> I would absolutely love a sideways in a long time. It's usually just in one direction. Um, so I mean if we started
[03:39:51] to chop around in a larger range, I mean that would be Dream and the overall market usually doesn't provide that. If you if you've very well lately. And if you haven't been, you lost a little bit or you've
[03:40:04] on this way up. So with that being said, anything else going to be top of mind >> Awesome. One of these days we need to have a dope handshake where we don't work on that. We'll we'll workshop that. We'll get in the lab.
[03:40:16] uh, thanks for joining us today. Be sure to stay tuned for more amazing content coming up next and we'll catch you guys next time. Peace.
[03:40:35] Spac, head of global macro here at Tasty Live. Joined by who I think is perhaps only our second repeat guest here on the show. Rick Rule is once again with us.
[03:40:48] He's the founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media. Rick, welcome back. >> Pleasure to be back with you. Thank you. >> Rick, I've saved all kinds of hard conversation, and I wanted to go right to the dollar and gold, which we uh
[03:41:03] to the dollar and gold, which we uh explained last time uh how it has been that since the beginning of this war in Iran, we've had of course an inflation scare and against that backdrop, interest rates have come up. And so, uh,
[03:41:15] contrary to what people might have thought, episodically, the dollar is up liquidity and higher rates and gold is down because things have sold it, uh, to gain that liquidity uh, and gain exposure to those rates. I want to keep
[03:41:32] that conversation going. Obviously, this inflation scare is now impacting the broad range of markets. We're seeing it in stocks. We're seeing it in all manner in stocks. We're seeing it in all manner of asset classes and I wanted to see if
[03:41:46] of asset classes and I wanted to see if in your mind this is an input into the larger gold conversation. Obviously people have looked uh at gold as people have looked uh at gold as something of a value hedge against uh
[03:41:58] fiat currencies being hampered by tremendous levels of debt across most large governments, not just the US certainly and not just Europe certainly. certainly and not just Europe certainly. Uh and so I wonder if this kind of
[03:42:12] inflation in your mind in that it inflates the debt away to some extent uh inflates the debt away to some extent uh if that hurts the long-term case or changes the long-term case in any way for gold and precious metals and kind of
[03:42:29] physical value as a counter to fiat in general. I think a study of history would suggest that fear of the decline or in certain cases the decimation of purchasing power held in
[03:42:44] fiat instruments has been responsible for most gold moves over the last for most gold moves over the last thousand years. Uh people uh attribute thousand years. Uh people uh attribute all kinds of uh attributes to gold. Uh
[03:42:59] all kinds of uh attributes to gold. Uh what one finds is that as an example other forms of fear uh war, political unrest, things like that uh have a near-term impact on gold, but they seem to have a negligible long-term uh impact
[03:43:12] on gold except sometimes for participants like refugees, the Jewish community, the Vietnamese community, uh those people had a speculative, it wasn't investment, it was survival. But for most people in
[03:43:28] less dire circumstance the primary motivation for gold is to shield one's savings from uh the depreciation in the purchasing power of the currency. It's important to note as a student of fairly recent
[03:43:42] note as a student of fairly recent history that is to say my lifetime uh that reaction to inflation uh takes place over longer periods of time. uh as a very young man uh I began to notice and become interested in uh inflation
[03:43:57] and become interested in uh inflation literally in high school uh in 1968 literally in high school uh in 1968 uh I began reading uh what are now regarded as Austrian economics or hard money books and I would suggest to you
[03:44:11] that although inflation was a topic on people's minds that the investing public didn't really begin to react to incipient inflation till 1972.
[03:44:23] In other words, there was a hiatus between the point in time when academics and politicians described inflation and the time that people began to react to it. During that 5-year period, as an example, uh a hamburger at McDonald's
[03:44:39] went from 20 cents to a buck. [laughter] uh uh by the next year with the Arab oil embargo the price of uh gasoline went embargo the price of uh gasoline went from 25 cents to a buck in 1968 1969
[03:44:55] 1970 despite the fact that we were undergoing inflation. Investors expectations of the future were set by their experience in the immediate past and the 1950s and 1960s had been very good times.
[03:45:08] >> Uh people were extremely optimistic. you you may you're probably too young but your older listeners will remember things like the Nifty50 uh which is to say high growth stocks that did extraordinarily well when your
[03:45:23] anticipation of the future is set by your experience in the past and your experience in the past two decades is rosy as well so it [clears throat] took probably five years for the population
[03:45:37] to react to incipient inflation and I think the same circumstances is happening today. Uh exactly the same circumstance. Uh we have lived through what I believe is the most benign economic climate in human history in the
[03:45:52] period 1982 to 2022. People's expectation the future is set by their expectation the future is set by their experience in the past by the dips. Uh believe government inflation numbers like the CPI.
[03:46:07] If you believe in the CPI and you believe that the destruction of your purchasing power is clipping along at 2 and a half or 2.6% then current interest rates seem very
[03:46:20] 4.4 uh you're getting over 100 basis points in real yield if you happen to believe in the CPI. My problem is I don't uh I
[03:46:32] believe that the CPI is better characterized by Mike Maloney as the CP characterized by Mike Maloney as the CP lie. Uh I believe that the deterioration in the purchasing power of the US dollar marked by the basket of goods and
[03:46:45] services that I consume uh suggests that the destruction of my purchasing power is proceeding along at an eight or nine or 10% clip. That presents a very different picture. If you're making 4.4 in a currency
[03:47:01] that's losing value at say 9, you aren't making 4.4, you're losing 4.5. It is when that realization becomes more widespread
[03:47:13] that gold really performs. Uh gold is viewed by many people right now after a 50-year hiatus uh as an investment class or a speculative class. I would argue
[03:47:25] that a thousand years of human history teaches us that gold is a liquidity teaches us that gold is a liquidity class or an insurance class and right now people don't feel the need for insurance.
[03:47:37] My suspicion is unfortunately that that feeling will change. Well, I think you make a very clear distinction there and um it echoes what we talked about last time as well that when we say that the dollar is um set to
[03:47:53] underperform, we're not talking about underperforming against other fiat currencies. We're talking about underperformance against hard assets and fiat currencies as a grouping underperforming against hard assets. And
[03:48:09] typically that conversation is uh presented as oh well governments will try to inflate away this debt but we don't need them to try. We have the don't need them to try. We have the inflation here. Uh and so I think the
[03:48:22] next kind of natural question is well gold is having a bit of a hangover here gold is having a bit of a hangover here after uh an incredible rally last year. Uh, one thing you've talked about recently that hasn't been caught up in
[03:48:38] recently that hasn't been caught up in this macro narrative is uranium as this macro narrative is uranium as another kind of vehicle for sort of another kind of vehicle for sort of expressing a view on on physical assets
[03:48:50] and the kind of value storage that that is. Break that down. Uh, what's the conversation with uranium? Well, I need to start by saying in most commodities, to start by saying in most commodities, the easy money has been made. The easy
[03:49:05] being hated, uh, it doesn't need to go to being loved. It just needs to go to being unhated. When commodity, when uranium was at $20 a pound, uh, although it took the industry $40 a pound to make it, so
[03:49:19] the price had to go up, it was a hated commodity. The move from $20 a pound to $85 a pound means that the easy money in uranium has been made. It also means, however, I think looking forward, that the sure money is in front of us. Why do
[03:49:34] I say that? Well, for several reasons. The most obvious reasons is that the The most obvious reasons is that the world needs more power of all kinds. All kinds. Global power demands, global energy demands are set to double by
[03:49:51] 2050. And we don't have the capacity to produce that much energy. We just don't have that much. Uh energy will be rationed by price. Uh nuclear power is
[03:50:04] extraordinarily reliable base load power. And importantly to in today's political discussion, it's base load power that doesn't generate carbon. It isn't the same as burning coal and burning oil. Uranium has in five short
[03:50:19] years gone from being a pariah to being a politically correct commodity. Uh which amuses me greatly frankly. The thing that's really changed with uranium though Ilia uh was and is the conflict in the Gulf. It has been 50 years since
[03:50:36] the world cared about energy security. If you dial all the way back to 1973 and the Arab oil embargo, uh that form of energy insecurity
[03:50:49] stimulated, as an example, the French to build what is now the fourth largest nuclear fleet in the world. It stimulated the Japanese to build the third largest nuclear fleet in the world. The impetus for that was energy
[03:51:03] security. energy security ceased to be a concern for 50 years but is suddenly a very relevant concern. Uh uranium is the only fuel on earth that has enough energy density that the Japanese anam as an example could if
[03:51:19] they had sufficient reactor capacity store enough uranium to power the entire store enough uranium to power the entire country for 5 years in one uranium storage facility. You can't store that much oil or that much coal or that much
[03:51:33] natural gas. You can't build that big a battery. The only material that can give battery. The only material that can give uh energy short nations, Korea, Japan, China for that matter, uh Taiwan, Singapore, uh energy security is
[03:51:51] Singapore, uh energy security is nuclear, the only one and the big thinkers of the world uh are beginning to come to understand that. And I think ordinary citizens are beginning to understand it too. Uh that's very
[03:52:05] important. We are right now producing less uranium than we consume. Uh and two things are impacting demand. One is that the Japanese are now speeding up in earnest the restart of
[03:52:21] the plants that were closed as a consequence of Fukushima. This isn't from now. This is demand that's going to occur 10 months from now. >> A very different circumstance with regards to pricing.
[03:52:34] Um it also uh is part of a broader trend to nuclear plant construction. Even nations that force swore nuclear uh in
[03:52:49] particular Germany and the United States uh are dis are learning that if they are to fund their existing economies never mind data centers that they need
[03:53:03] mind data centers that they need reliable inexpensive base load power and their voters would prefer that power to be non-carbon generating. I would suggest that the biggest unsung beneficiary if there is ever
[03:53:16] beneficiary if there is ever beneficiaries of a war uh would be conflict. People think of oil, they think of gas, they think of nitrogen, think of gas, they think of nitrogen, nitrogenous fertilizer, sulfur, helium
[03:53:29] uh all things that move through the straits of Hormuse. They don't think about the geopolitical uh attractiveness of a form of energy that gives a country uh energy security. And there is no other form of energy
[03:53:43] Well, >> I think that's a really important insight here. It's it's sort of the next step in the conversation where you say, okay, well, today it's a story about a bottleneck. But a year from now, two
[03:54:01] years from now, three years from now, there will be some kind of resolution of this bottleneck this way or that. But countries will have learned that they live in a different world. Now I think you made the point last time we spoke
[03:54:13] you made the point last time we spoke that the 40 years uh that were there sort of through the vulkar disinflation almost right up to co is a very different period than what we're entering now. uh and uh certainly
[03:54:29] delobalization and inflation and uh thinking about uh kind of the thinking about uh kind of the disillusion of US enforced norms would suggest that countries need to start thinking about things like energy
[03:54:42] security uh in these kinds of terms in expressing a view on uranium uh because I think I mean obviously with gold it's easy there's any number of ways you can gain exposure from physical to ETFs to futures
[03:54:57] futures Same thing for silver. Uh what's the vehicle for exposure to uranium in your mind? >> There are several uh I I think for most people the lowest risk uh exposure to
[03:55:10] uranium is to buy something called the spat physical uranium trust. Note here conflicts of interest. I'm the largest shareholder uh of the manager. I'm not an employer employee. I'm just a
[03:55:24] beneficiary. The Sprat physical uh uranium trust is a deposit receipt representing physical ownership uh of uranium at four facilities worldwide.
[03:55:38] uranium is one of those commodities that one is well advised not to try to buy and store at home for fairly obvious reasons. Uh so the the best form of physical ownership is in fact certificated ownership and by far the
[03:55:54] most liquid uh of those vehicles is the spat physical trust. If someone wants to take a bit of operational risk, I would suggest that the highest quality uranium producer [clears throat] in the world is the Canadian doiciled camo, the symbol
[03:56:10] CCJ on the New York Stock Exchange. uh and the Toronto Stock Exchange for your and the Toronto Stock Exchange for your Canadian listeners. Highly liquid um really a full cycle uranium shop all the way from producing uranium to enriching
[03:56:24] uranium to by now in its engineering group building uranium mines and processing facilities for other others and generating power. The third that people might want to look at is Kazatam which is the largest uranium producer in
[03:56:38] the world formerly a large position of mine. I've sold my stock because of middle management defections. Uh middle management defections that I couldn't I didn't understand and I have a hard and fast rule. If there's a risk I don't
[03:56:54] understand, I sell the stock. There are also a range of uranium speculations, but I'd prefer not to talk to your viewers about those. Uh they require a lot of work to be a responsible holder. And I've found with 50 years of
[03:57:10] experience that many audiences love the name but aren't prepared to do the work So we're going to leave the speculative ones aside. I think >> and that is perfect. Uh how do you feel about an ETF like URA and sort of ETF
[03:57:26] >> For a lot of people it's probably appropriate. Uh I'm old school. uh the idea that somebody including my former employer Sprat constructs an index constructs an index that has probably 50% uh of the stocks in it being stocks
[03:57:42] I wouldn't otherwise own. >> The idea that I have to pay somebody a fee to construct a portfolio that I normally wouldn't own for free is problematic to me. I realize that most of your listeners have lives. They have
[03:57:55] kids or grandkids. They like to garden. They like to read. They like to do things with their life other than study uranium juniors. And for them, the ETF is probably appropriate, if inelegant.
[03:58:08] have, of course, a thousand more questions for you, but we're just going to have to have you back to get to those. Uh, tell the good folks where they can get more from you. I >> I'll give them incentive. Uh, anybody
[03:58:21] who cares what I have to say about natural resources and wants to [clears throat] uranium juniors can go to my website, ruleinvestmentmedia.com. There, if you list the natural resource stocks that you own, I will personally
[03:58:36] review that portfolio and rank it 1 to 10, one being best, 10 being worst, and I'll comment on individual issues if I think my comments have any value. Please, as a sidebar, I know yours is a trading community, no crypto, no tech
[03:58:49] stocks, [laughter] natural resource stocks only. The other thing I would suggest to your audience is if you care about natural resources, uh a conference which I personally believe is the finest natural resource
[03:59:01] conference on the planet takes place July 6 through 10. Not surprisingly, it's called the Rule Natural Resources Investment Symposium. If you go to rulesium.com, you can learn more. The physical
[03:59:15] conference is sold out, but you can, if you wish, attend the conference from the comfort and convenience of your own home via liveream. rules symposium.com. By the way, ours is the only conference I know of, live or otherwise, that has
[03:59:32] an unconditional money back guarantee. If you attend the conference and think for any reason whatsoever, you being the sole judge that we didn't deliver fully value for your money, email me. I'll give you your money back. Uh nobody else
[03:59:47] give you your money back. Uh nobody else I know uh in investor education uh I know uh in investor education uh maintains uh ironclad money back guarantee. We've done it for 30 years now. I'm delighted to say we've had to
[04:00:00] refund about onetenth of 1% of the tuitions that we've charged over 30 years. But that guarantee is your guarantee that we're confident our content at rules.com can make you money.
[04:00:13] And there you have it. Uh folks, uh if that doesn't explain why Rick is here explaining things to us, well, go check that stuff out and you'll find out, too. Thank you, Rick. >> Always a pleasure, Eli. Thank you.
[04:00:34] and ask the question, is there any unusual activity that's worth discussing and maybe even trading around? Today's names are two trades, both hitting close to the close yesterday, but with very
[04:00:47] different messages. The first one is Tesla, ticker TSLA, which is tied directly to the SpaceX IPO set to open around 175 perhaps here. That has not recording. The second ticker is Meta, which may be the AI name that the market
[04:01:04] has not yet fully repriced. But let's start with Tesla here. Currently trading on $394 a share. Someone bought the Tesla June 18th 432 and a half call. 6 days to expiration. Tesla was trading around $399 when the trade hit. The
[04:01:19] strike was about 8% out of the money. Premium was $3.31 million and the volume was 14,263 contracts. The open interest jumped by 5,389 contracts in a single session. That's a 202% increase. So, this is not a quiet
[04:01:34] repositioning. It's not someone taking a little dip of a toe into the water. This is a big call sweep done into the close one day ahead of the SpaceX IPO. And that timing tells you a lot about the trader's intentions here. SpaceX is
[04:01:48] being listed today under the ticker SPCX. The IPO price is $135 a share. Reporting ahead of time says it may trade closer to 171 175 around the open, which would be roughly 27 to 30% above that IPO price. And in doing so, the
[04:02:03] company would be raising well that $75 billion that it was seeking, making it the largest IPO ever. The demand behind the scenes is reportedly $350 billion. overs subscribed. No wonder we're looking at a potential pop at the IPO at
[04:02:19] the open. So, it's not just another trade here, right? Tesla is coming in the context of this Musk halo effect. Tesla owns SpaceX exposure through its AI conversion, the XAI conversion with the FTC approved on March 11th. So, if
[04:02:33] SpaceX rips on the debut, the Musk halo effect can spill directly over into these Tesla shares. That is your bullcase here. SpaceX opened strong. The retail demand is enormous against a tiny float roughly 3 to 4% of the shares and
[04:02:48] traders start treating Tesla as part of the broader Elon Musk ecosystem. Once more, the call buyer is making a bet here that a sus a successful SpaceX debutless Tesla quickly. It's going to happen within the six day expiration
[04:03:02] window. There's no time for a slowmoving story. This is a bet that things will work out well and they're going to work out well very very quickly. There is a institutional side JP Morgan just upgraded its Tesla coverage from
[04:03:14] underweight to neutral and raised its target from 145 to 4 from 445 to 475, excuse me. But that's a massive reset from a major bank right before the SpaceX IPO. And the target is now sitting above the call strike in this uh
[04:03:29] sweep here. So the tape is giving us the trade. We have a catalyst right now and we have a sellside upgrade all at once. Now the risk here is obvious perhaps for those that were following the SpaceX IPO road show. There were some detractors
[04:03:43] that popped up along the way. Morning Star, which is seen as a fairly neutral uh rating agency said that the fair value for SpaceX is closer to $63 per value for SpaceX is closer to $63 per share. So if it comes in at 7171,
[04:03:56] there's a massive gap between enthusiasm perhaps fundamental value. But it's an Elon Musk company. Jim Kramer pointed out that SpaceX could sort of which may be a pretty honest
[04:04:08] 4% matters a lot here. The founder lockup being 366 days matters a lot here. The index rules, particularly for the NASDAQ, could start to force passive buying within the next 15 days. This
[04:04:22] structure might make for a massive first day move and it can create a market quickly, especially through second order effects like Tesla as a proxy bet on SpaceX itself. So while the SpaceX play here through a Tesla call sweep is
[04:04:37] fairly clean, it is the halo effect trade. If the IPO opens up strong, if Musk market goes full Musk again, then Tesla's going to catch a fast bet. If Tesla, the halo effect could just become competition. But right now, all signs
[04:04:51] are pointing in the right direction. So maybe there's some signal within this particular trade. There is another trade though, and that goes through Meta. went across our screen here. The first August 21st, 6:30 call, 70 days to
[04:05:05] expiration. The stock trading around 560 at a time. The strike is 11% out of the money. The premium is about 4.09 million spread across 266 contracts. And then you have the July 31st 640 calls that hit the tape here.
[04:05:20] The strikes about 13% out of the money. The premium 1.14 million spent across 854 contracts. The open interest on that line was zero before this trade. And now everything that you see here is entirely new positioning. So the combined bet is
[04:05:34] about 5.23 million in bullish Meta calls. And unlike Tesla, there's no real IPO halo trade effect going on here. This is a simple the market has misunderstood Meta's business model and is undervalued. This is a rerating trade
[04:05:48] which may be a little bit less speculative as it were. Meta is trading around 568 is about 29% below its all-time highs established near five 796. Uh meanwhile the business is still printing the enormous numbers that you
[04:06:01] would think would be accretive to higher share prices. Qan revenue is 55.5 billion 20% higher year-over-year. That beat by roughly $900 million. Operating margin is 41%. Cash levels 81 billion. The AI numbers are starting to perk up
[04:06:16] too. Meta has 1 billion monthly active users. Llama has 1.2 billion downloads right now. Even Threads, which I'm not a Threads user, it still has 450 million active users on a single monthly basis, which has actually surpassed X. That was
[04:06:30] surprising for me to learn. Rayban Meta sold 7 million pairs in 2025, up from the 2 million total in 23 and 24 combined. WhatsApp business messaging is now up 74%. So right now we have an interesting setup here. It's the I
[04:06:44] are selling the shovels that are being rewarded. Those that are buying the shovels, the service layer on top of it all, they've been punished because it's costing a lot of money to actually build the buildout. But consider it right now.
[04:06:57] Meta has one of the largest AI distribution networks in the entire it as it does in the same way as an Nvidia, Marll or even a Google because it's not a hardware company just yet. Meta is an AI company that no one is
[04:07:12] yeah, they deserve to be dunked on after the metaverse and all, but this is They're seeing the future where we start moving away from the bottleneck and we applications. This is a company with over $200 billion in revenue, 41%
[04:07:26] operating margins, more than 1 billion AI users, and the stock is still 29% seeing here at Meta is a bet that we're not going to get back to those highs, but we can make a significant leap towards there over this next, say, well,
[04:07:40] 70-day window, 49 to 71 day window here. And that's where the signal versus noise trade today gets interesting. The Tesla side of this of uh uh prospect of trades here, these are event- driven trades. These are binary event risk trades. They
[04:07:54] are hoping for SpaceX to come in with a bang. That the largest IPO in history lights up the board and the Musk Halo effect continues to work its magic. But be a shift in the theme around AI that the market is going to get past this
[04:08:08] recent bottleneck phase around memory chips and we'll call it uh hardware with Dell and Hulip Packard performing fairly strong in recent sessions. divergence right now in the expression here. But both may be true. I'm curious
[04:08:24] how the chat is handling the SpaceX IPO. Our very own Tim Knight tried getting in for 1,000 shares, was only allocated, I believe, 24. Were you successful in getting on in SpaceX? Let us know below. This has been another episode of Signal
[04:08:37] Live. Like and subscribe for more videos. where we take a look at unusual activity on the options tape and ask the
[04:08:53] question, is there something real going on here or people just speculating? You know, Jamal, today's episode, we're going to go with a little bit of a twist on that framing. Sometimes when someone says you should sell your kidneys before
[04:09:06] and sell the Bitcoin before they sell their kidneys, it makes you wonder about the kind of conviction that's remaining in the market. And that's bringing us to Micro Strategy and Michael Sailor today because Michael Sailor, the man who said
[04:09:20] around with two of them as it were. At least that's as far as I know here on this Thursday, June 4th. Um, before people start throwing tomatoes at the screen for my tacky jokes, let's consider how much they've sold here. 32.
[04:09:35] Oh, no. That's right. 32, not 32,000. They only sold 32 Bitcoin. Roughly $2.5 million worth between May 26 and May 31st. So, okay, the size doesn't matter break, if you will. Bitcoin's been getting hammered this week. What's going
[04:09:50] on here? Look, it this is really kind of more about it's turning into. I mean, it used to be this never say die product that you just held on to for life, right? And now it's become more like a treasury asset, it
[04:10:05] would seem. And and the real big story here, Chris, is what did they sell for, right? And in this case, they sold to satisfy some obligations. Um, so I think that's the real thing about it. It's not the size, it's what did they sell for?
[04:10:19] continue to see in the future. And so as a result, obviously the stock has taken a huge hit. I mean, it's taken a huge hit over the last year and change hit more recently as a result of this
[04:10:32] news. And we've seen some options activity. Um, we've seen I I think of of further out, but there's some options activity that went down in the June 18th activity that went down in the June 18th expiration. They bought the uh 131 puts.
[04:10:46] didn't change a whole lot on many of these trades, but nevertheless, uh, they bought some options in in the June 19th expiration. They bought some nearer-term options in the June 12th expiration, bought the 128 put. So, both of those
[04:11:01] are around strike. But then, Chris, the big trade that happened was further out big trade that happened was further out in October expiration on the 50 strike, the 50 strike. I mean, you can see the stock is trading $131 right now. They
[04:11:13] stock is trading $131 right now. They bought on the 50 strike and that I think is the one that makes that stands out the most. But nevertheless, I mean, this is just more of a story of once upon a time there was no chance you would
[04:11:25] expect Micro Sailor and Micro Strategy to be selling Bitcoin and now they're selling to satisfy some obligations. And that I think makes people just a little >> Strategy discloses that it sells its 32 Bitcoin at a price of roughly $77,000.
[04:11:39] And Jamal, I just want to put this in perspective here. That's absolutely microscopic. Micro Strategy owns roughly 843,000 Bitcoin. So selling a handful [snorts] of them. 32 32 is about double 38%.
[04:11:54] 0.38% of their total holdings. That's again not anything but there's a change in behavior. Sailor's been the flag bearer for Bitcoin accumulation over how many years now? uh he changed his verbiage recently where he called Micro
[04:12:10] Strategy a net accumulator moving forward. For every one bitcoin that they sell, they're going to try to purchase nine or 10. But that's a very different type of mindset and level of conviction than uh never sell or sell kidneys
[04:12:23] before you sell. And the market's starting to take notice of that right now. It's just a more bad news and what's been a pretty long crypto window that we most care about as Tasty Traders, volatility has finally come
[04:12:36] back into the space, there's been a rapid expansion of volatility which is pushing around these option prices in recent sessions. Well, you know, there was sort of this romantic idea in a way, right? It's
[04:12:48] almost like what we experienced for the last what seemingly hundred years with with uh with Warren Buffett. I mean, this idea that you're buying something and you're holding on to it forever. And I think as much as people had loved to
[04:13:00] appreciated that idea that you're going to buy something and hold on forever no matter what. And now I I think it almost seems more like that Micro Strategy is becoming more like a managed Bitcoin fund if anything. And maybe this is
[04:13:15] going to be something albeit not all the time that we see every so often that they sell forward various different reasons because that's kind of how funds work from time to time. And you're right, Micro Strategy is effectively a
[04:13:27] leverage Bitcoin company. They've spent about $64 billion accumulating Bitcoin. That's worth roughly $53 billion marktomarket. So that's an 11 billion about the preferred dividends, the financial obligations, and the capital
[04:13:40] market dependence to keep the whole game going, you're really starting to stand on stilts here. So the liabilities once they're factored into this equation, the never sell uh mantra that Michael Sailor has held, it runs into the gravity of
[04:13:53] the cash flow obligations that they have to uh the outside world. So Jamal, I'm Is this signal? Is this noise? Is Micro Strategy a time of well a sign of the times? Is this the end of it all for
[04:14:06] times? Is this the end of it all for Bitcoin as we dip below 65K? Let us know in the comments below. Thanks for watching Tasty Live. Like and subscribe watching Tasty Live. Like and subscribe for more videos.
[04:14:23] Live and we're coming at you with another episode of Options in Action. If you've missed this series, it's basically a new series where I take an old whiteboard concept or maybe a strategy that I talked about previously
[04:14:37] and bring it into an advanced light. We take a look at the platform and we talk some of these concepts. Uh we're going to go through the entire YouTube playlist uh the old whiteboard series. So we have talked about call options,
[04:14:51] put options, we've talked about premium, we've talked about strike prices and expirations, you name it. Uh and today we're talking about the age-old question. Can you make more money trading short premium or can you make
[04:15:07] more money trading long premium? And what are the gimmies and gotchas as Dr. Jim says? Uh what are the tradeoffs with selling premium versus buying premium? We're going to take a look today and we'll break it down on this edition of
[04:15:21] Options in Action. So, we got this S&P chart pulled up here and this is not the S&P stock or index chart. It is actually a chart of a long call out in December,
[04:15:35] a chart of a long call out in December, the 8,300 strike to be specific. You can see here S&P uh at the top is trading at 7,300. So, we're looking at this call option a,000 points out of the money to the upside and this is the December
[04:15:49] cycle. So before we dive into this and before I I start spewing nonsense, uh I just wanted to say, you know, when you're selling premium, there's a difference between selling premium in the S&P 500 products like S&P or MEES or
[04:16:06] the S&P 500 products like S&P or MEES or XSP or SPY. Uh there's a big difference between selling premium in those sorts of products versus selling premium in of products versus selling premium in the equity space, right? S&P 500 or
[04:16:18] other indices even products like SMH uh that have moved quite aggressively with the tech sector popping off and selling off uh at the same time. There's things to consider, right? Short premium in the S&P 500. I I've said this before. I
[04:16:34] think if you can trade successively short premium on both sides of a market in an equity, you can definitely do that in the S&P 500 simply because the S&P 500 moves less. It doesn't have the same binary events. It doesn't have the same
[04:16:49] binary nature of equities. You could have a CEO step down and the stock price be down 20% pre-market or after the market closes. Or the opposite can happen. They can announce something something that the market likes and that
[04:17:01] stock is up or down 20% when the options market is closed. It's not necessarily going to happen in the S&P 500. There's also uh market stops. Even if there is a big crash in the S&P, there's certain levels where the market stops trading.
[04:17:15] uh that doesn't necessarily help you in the case of not taking on risk when it talking like short puts, for example, into a market move like this or even into a market move like this or even strangles. Um but what I will say is
[04:17:30] over the years I've learned that there's a time and place for all strategies, right? Uh I have long premium strategies where I'm buying options. It's a lower probability trade if you're holding trades to expiration. But I like to say
[04:17:43] if you're buying options, you get what you pay for. I don't really buy options that are near-term. I don't buy zero day options. I don't buy 7-day options. In my mind, you're buying a lot of implied volatility in those cases. And it
[04:17:56] becomes just that much harder to be profitable on those strategies because profitable on those strategies because you have this super decaying uh asset that is if it moves against you directionally, it's basically going to
[04:18:08] become worthless and it becomes that much harder for it to reverse and work in your favor. If you're buying a LEAP option though, totally different story. Uh LEAP options cost a lot of money. you get what you pay for when it comes to
[04:18:20] long premium, but I think when you're buying premium, it doesn't necessarily have to be a naked option. It can be. I actually have a position on in Nike right now. Uh I bought a LEAP option out at the 60 strike all the way out almost
[04:18:36] at the 60 strike all the way out almost 600 days away, January of 2028. So, this was a situation where, you know, Nike drops to multi- multi multi-year lows. We're talking decade lows. Uh this Nike hasn't been 45 at least around this
[04:18:52] price point since uh 2015 if I'm not mistaken. So the further a price falls, especially in a product like Nike where I think we'll still see some upside I think we'll still see some upside potential there, um yes, I could sell a
[04:19:06] put to uh collect that premium, but at the same time, Nike's already fallen uh the same time, Nike's already fallen uh and it's still down at 40. If I sell a put 16 days away for a 100 bucks, sure, I could sell that. It's a higher
[04:19:19] probability trade, you can see my probability of profit is nice and high at 66%. Uh, but I take on the undefined risk nature of Nike where maybe they another 10 points, and now all of a sudden I have a $900 loss on my hands
[04:19:34] and not much management in terms of what I can do. Uh, it also takes a decent amount of buying power, 800 bucks relative to a $40 stock. So, for me, instead of selling a put, uh, especially when a product like Nike or any other
[04:19:49] equity gets to multi-year lows or decade lows, I'd rather just inventory some long-term premium. And you can see here the further out in time you go because you're avoiding the implied volatility increase of something like an earnings
[04:20:04] earlier, you've got plenty of implied volatility here in the near-term cycles that isn't necessarily reflective of these long-term cycles, right? Look at this expected move for June 30th. You have a plus - $4.60 implied move with a
[04:20:19] 60% IV almost. But you look at January of 2028 and it's only a 17point implied move. And that's because the implied volatility is significantly lower when you get all the way out here on the curve. So will I be trading Nike? Will I
[04:20:35] earnings announcement in a defined risk way? Absolutely. Uh like I said, there's a time and place for everything. I think for Nike with the upcoming earnings, 22-day cycle, but I'm going to buy something in July or August. I likely
[04:20:50] will go to something like a diagonal spread or calendar spread uh in that intelligently. I still want to reduce cost basis which has always been uh something that we've said here on Tasty Live. I want to make sure that I am
[04:21:04] reducing my cost basis and improving my probability of success anywhere I can. So, in this case, if Nike is offering super high premium to sell something whether it be a calendar spread or diagonal spread, uh, we can look at this
[04:21:19] here, like the 45 strike in July, trading for $2.50, we'll call it the 45 strike in July 2nd. Look at that. You have two weeks of a difference in time, but only a 40cent difference in the option prices. I'm absolutely going to
[04:21:33] be selling something against that long option that I buy if I'm bullish. And same thing if I'm bearish. But longer term, Nike is down to 10-year lows. So, what does that mean? It means I'm going to get really far out on the curve here
[04:21:46] and risk $500. This option hasn't really moved all that much, which is interesting. Nike still chopped around and this 2-year leap basically is trading for 500 bucks. My whole thesis is would I be surprised to see Nike go
[04:22:00] is would I be surprised to see Nike go from 45 back up to 50 or 55 or 60? It my answer is no. I would not be surprised. And if I'm buying a LEAP volatility, I know yes, it's a little bit more costly, but I'm out of the IV
[04:22:16] spike in the near term. I'm inventorying long-term delta, inventorying premium that isn't going to decay against me all that much. And if we get a move in Nike that much. And if we get a move in Nike from 45 to50 or $55 or 60, that option
[04:22:29] from 45 to50 or $55 or 60, that option is going to uh be worth $1,000, $1,500. And we can see this here. If I right click on the option in the chart, the 60 strike, if you right click on the bidder ask, you can have this menu pop up here.
[04:22:41] View the option in the chart. And here we go. It's been trading for $500 basically ever since I bought it. But back here when Nike was at 55 and 60, this option was trading for $1,500. So from a riskreward standpoint, as a
[04:22:57] product like Nike or any other equity gets to decade lows or multi-year lows, I'm going to be inclined to lean into the long-term positioning. I did the same thing in Microsoft, right? Microsoft went from 550 down to sub 400
[04:23:11] levels. What did I do? I was buying into some near-term stuff. We we set up some short premium trades, of course, but I also did a really long-term calendar spread at the 500 strike. I bought January of 2027 and sold September of
[04:23:25] trade. I was just like, well, I don't know what's going to happen in the near term, but I do feel like over the course of the year, Microsoft's going to be higher than where it is now. And that ended up being the case. We saw a nice
[04:23:39] bid, got all the way up to uh 460, and just looking at the order chains here, you can see uh I've had some decent trades up until that point. And the only trade I have left is that calendar spread in Microsoft, and it's up a
[04:23:53] couple hundred uh right now. Uh if we look at the 500 strike, I bought it for 500 bucks, it's up $400 right now. So, I still want to have it on. I think there's a bullish case for it. But to answer the question, selling premium
[04:24:07] versus long premium, uh I think when you're selling premium, you have to be able to withstand all variance within that product you're selling, right? Because from my perspective, the most success that I've had in products where
[04:24:20] I've sold premium, uh it's been in products where I've traded small enough or the product size was small enough to where I could manipulate the strikes, manipulate my time and expiration or a combination of both. Right? That's the
[04:24:34] flexibility to be like, you know what, this expiration. I'm going to buy this back and I'm going to move it out a months and move my strike and collect a credit still. So, that is how I approach
[04:24:49] undefined risk these days. It's going to be a much higher probability of success premium versus buying premium, if you sell an option, you just need the stock price to stay out of the money or in this case above your 37 1/2 put. If
[04:25:05] you're buying premium, you need a directional move in the stock price. And that's as simple as that. So, when you think about that, if I'm selling premium the money, I'm going to be much more inclined to sell near-term premium
[04:25:19] because I know that implied volatility is higher. There's not enough time or there's not as much time for the product to move against me in a big way. It can still happen, of course, but that 30 to 60 day window is where the implied
[04:25:32] volatility is nice and high relative to a nice blend of time value as well. So, that window. We have research that shows that that's kind of the sweet spot of implied volatility value plus time value. So selling premium in that 30 to
[04:25:47] 60 day window. Buying premium, I prefer to be outside of that 60-day window. Honestly, I would rather buy premium in a 90-day 100 day option cycle if it if it's something I can afford. In the case of Nike, I can do that in a 25k 30k
[04:26:02] account. Of course, um even smaller, you have the ability to do it because the stock price is so low. But in something like S&P, $7,300 stock price, I don't have the ability to sell premium in here. Uh I can trade spreads in here. I
[04:26:16] can do uh calendar spreads, some diagonal spreads in here, but sometimes the stock price is the determining factor of your strategy. So keep all this in mind and just really make sure if you're selling premium, you you need
[04:26:29] to be able to withstand the variance of any kind of move. I prefer to if I'm selling a put or a strangle, uh let's talk about puts. If I'm selling a put, I would rather sell it in a product where I can just hold that premium or take the
[04:26:42] shares. I would rather not exit at, you know, two or three times the loss of that short put because if I'm selling an undefining risk put, I kind of want to does get down there. I don't want to be stopping myself out and then two weeks
[04:26:58] later see that it could have moved out of the money. So, that's just me. Um, but to summarize, if you're buying options, you get what you pay for. I think, uh, in this kind of market environment, I'm always going to have
[04:27:11] buying a 60-day option, I want to be selling something in the 30-day cycle or maybe the weekly cycle against it if there's an earnings announcement where that premium is really juicy and I can reduce the cost basis on my long option.
[04:27:24] Because the more you can reduce the cost basis on your long option, the more flexibility you have going forward to have that long option be profitable or even a scratch. If I'm selling premium, I'm very cognizant of the fact that it
[04:27:37] is a higher probability trade. You're going to have a lot of winners when you're selling premium, but you should also understand how to manipulate that trade. With defined risk debit trades, when you're buying premium, there's not
[04:27:50] certain things like with calendar spreads uh and diagonal spreads where you can manipulate that short option by moving the strike or moving it out in undefined risk short premium specifically, you can do a lot of
[04:28:05] different things. You you have a ton of flexibility uh in the ability to manipulate strikes. And if you look at my order chains for the MEES position, this is my year-long strategy for 2026. I've clearly manipulated this position
[04:28:20] over and over and over and every single time I do it, I collect more credit. I started with 93 points in credit. I now have 700 points in credit uh overall, which means my break evens are 700 points beyond my strikes. And this is a
[04:28:35] profitable trade because I've been selling premium to offset any kind of intrinsic value uh losses that might show against me. So short premium I like to reserve it for either products that I can afford any variance in or something
[04:28:51] in like an index like MEES is a great example or IBIT even the Bitcoin ETF that was my year-long trade from last year. Um so I think when you compartmentalize these things it puts you in a a good spot to be able to
[04:29:04] withstand variance. And again, if you have a day like today and you're like, "My account is really suffering," then I think your trade size might be off. I think maybe the strategic decisions might be a little bit off. Again, we
[04:29:17] want to be able to withstand as much variance as possible. With undefined variance. The trade size has to be small enough to where you can withstand any success in the future, and it gives you that flexibility to manipulate the trade
[04:29:31] as the markets move. And with defined risk, same story. Uh I like to keep them within $500 to $1,000. I think that's a healthy level for me. But again, if I'm doing a diagonal spread or calendar spread, I have a plan for if things go
[04:29:46] strike out in time. I know I can move that short strike up or down depending that short strike up or down depending on the strategy. But uh yeah, let me know what you think in the comments below. That was a long- winded segment.
[04:30:00] wasn't expecting to go that long, but uh hopefully that kind of mental shift helps a little bit. Again, if I'm selling on finders premium, it's usually in an index product or a micro futures product and it's sectorbased. It's not
[04:30:15] something that's going to move 20% pre pre- or postmarket. But if I am involving myself in those types of products, it's going to be in a product size that is small enough to where I can withstand any variance. I can manipulate
[04:30:27] the strikes up and down. And I think that's another interesting uh and important point is undefined risk trading super high probability if you're doing out of the money uh sales of options. But understand what you can do
[04:30:40] that's just going to give you another leg up in the future of trading uh as the markets move and things go wrong for winners, you're going to have your losers, but you got to know how to
[04:30:53] manipulate and adjust those losers if they are undefined risk trades. But thanks for tuning in. Let me know what you think in the comments below. Please Live channel, and we'll see you on the next episode of Options in Action.
[04:31:13] Live with another episode of Options in Action. If you've missed the previous episodes, this is a series where I'm talking about old whiteboard videos strategies, but we're giving it more of an advanced twang and we're looking at
[04:31:29] the platform itself, talking about certain concepts that I'm using today and how it applies to everyday trading. We talked about expirations last time and today I wanted to talk about letting an option expire in the money and
[04:31:45] ultimately taking shares of stock. Al also we can talk about expiration risk and assignment risk and how it's not something that I'm worried about at all. I think we can wrap those up into one and kind of just give you a nice uh
[04:31:59] package of ways to think about expiration and why not to be afraid of assignment risk, especially if you have defined risk spreads or an in the money something like that. So, let's dive into the Taste Trade platform and we'll break
[04:32:14] it down for you. So, we're looking at SPY right now. As you can see, SPY has had a massive rally from the lows of this year. In April, we were all the way down at 635ish. Now we're sitting at 755. Just an insane run to the upside.
[04:32:31] And maybe that has resulted in in the money options. So for those that don't know yet, uh if you have an in the money option, it's ultimately going to expire and turn into shares of stock. So if I have a 760 put for example that is in
[04:32:47] have a 760 put for example that is in the money I will ultimately be assigned 100 shares of spy at 760. Same thing with the opposite side. If I have an in the money call a short option that's in the money and it is assigned or it
[04:33:00] expires in the money I will be uh basically have 100 short shares of stock basically have 100 short shares of stock at 750. Now, a lot of times we're not really dealing with assignment risk because we're rolling our options
[04:33:13] positions out in time. And really, assignment risk is highest when you don't have a lot of exttrinsic value in your options strike. So, even even with a 750 call that's in the money, 15 days to go, there's still $600 of exttrinsic
[04:33:28] value that uh somebody would be giving up to exercise this option and turn it into shares of stock. In other words, they're taking $600 and lighting it on about assignment risk because it just doesn't happen all too often. I've been
[04:33:42] trading for over 10 years and I've been assigned maybe three times, four times maybe. Uh, in one of them was a celebration. In this case, it was literally like I had an in the money option that was that had $200 or so of
[04:33:55] extrinsic value. And I woke up the next day, I was assigned on it. I got the shares and kept that money, the exttrinsic value. I closed the shares basically doubled my credit overnight. So that's another thing. If you are
[04:34:10] assigned early and there's plenty of exttrinsic value associated with your option still, it can actually be a benefit to your position. Uh the only situation where that would not be the case is if you had a dividend that you
[04:34:22] had to pay. So like with an in the money call at 7:30 for example, let's say spy call at 7:30 for example, let's say spy had a dividend of $400. there's $288 of exttrinsic value here. The counterparty would give up their $280 of exttrinsic
[04:34:37] value to get the $400 dividend. So in that case, it's a net positive for that counterparty. And that is the circumstance where you can get assigned early. Your options can be converted to stock early uh if there's a dividend
[04:34:51] where the dividend exceeds the exttrinsic value left in the option. But other than that, like you can look at these options here. Like this is a 715 these options here. Like this is a 715 720 option. It's 35 points in the money
[04:35:05] and it still has $200 of exttrinsic value. This is still an option that has value. This is still an option that has a low assignment risk here. So not into shares of stock. What I do want to bring up is how it can actually change
[04:35:19] your risk profile for the better in a lot of cases. So yes, if you have a spread, so like let's say you've got a uh 755 750 put spread, right? You're
[04:35:31] kind of teetering on this short option here. This is a defined risk trade. here. This is a defined risk trade. However, if SPY drops significantly and over time someone exercises this short put, you're still left with a long put
[04:35:45] here that protects your risk, right? Because a short put converts into a 100 shares of stock. A long put represents a 100 short shares of stock beyond the strike to the downside. So even if I have a short put spread and I'm assigned
[04:36:00] a 100 shares of stock in SPY, if I can hold that buying power, that's the big that would certainly be increased relative to this $300 uh buying power here for this narrow spread. It actually
[04:36:14] increases my max profit substantially, potential max profit substantially. And that's because the most I can make from this spread is just the credit I received on entry. However, if spy drops like a rock and I'm assigned on this
[04:36:27] short put and I still have this long put, as long as I have the long put, my risk profile doesn't change on that package. But I would now have 100 shares package. But I would now have 100 shares of spy with a static delta of 100. Which
[04:36:40] means if the market drops dramatically and I get assigned on the short put, I still have the protective long here. If the market rebounds and now all of a sudden we're back at 755 and beyond, I'm making money on those 100 shares of
[04:36:52] stock where I wouldn't have been making that money on the shares because with just this options trade, I can only make the credit received. So, another sense is to just like take the shares uh and just use the shares as a static
[04:37:07] and just use the shares as a static delta lever is in products that are smaller priced and maybe you've sold a put and you're trying to uh you know stands out to me because I already have 100 shares of Under Armour for this
[04:37:21] exact reason. But let's say you sold a put uh in these options expirations. There's not too many here, but let's just say you you sold the 7 and 12 put and or like the 10 put. You can see there's very little exttrinsic value
[04:37:35] here. The deltas are super high. And if you were assigned 100 shares of stock in you were assigned 100 shares of stock in Under Armour, yes, you can only make the amount of the put if you sell this put. And I think that's the big the big key
[04:37:48] here. If you're assigned 100 shares, you now have unlimited upside potential on how much you can make if the market does recover to the upside. So, the deeper in the money a short put goes, the closer it gets to a 100 delta, the less
[04:38:02] exttrinsic value you're going to have. So, if you're thinking of rolling a deep roll it, let's say from July to uh not picking up a lot of credit, but you have a really high delta on your short
[04:38:15] put, it actually might make sense to consider taking the shares of stock where you no longer have a option that you can only make as much as the option is worth. You would have 100 shares of stock where you can make a lot more to
[04:38:28] the upside. So, that's pretty much it when it comes to options that expire in the money. I mean, again, I don't really hold things to expiration to uh risk that. That is one of the things that we should talk about, though. Like, if you
[04:38:41] money and out of the money, if you [snorts] let the spread expire and your long put goes away, now you don't have the same risk profile. You still have the 100 shares that you're assigned on the 755, but you would no longer have
[04:38:56] the protective put down here. So, something to consider. But uh deep in the money options that have no extrinsic value, if you take the shares instead, you have a higher max profit going forward and you have the same risk
[04:39:09] profile as you did with the deep in the money short put or deep in the money short call. Uh but you now have the static delta in the shares where a short option that's deep in the money if it starts to rise uh towards the at the
[04:39:23] money price, you can only make the amount of the option itself. So again, deep in the money options close to 100 delta with no exttrinsic value. In almost all cases, your max profit is higher if you just convert the shares if
[04:39:35] you're willing to do that. If not, you'd have to manipulate the strategy and change the risk on it uh by rolling out in time and moving it if you can. But those options that are super far in the money are trading like stock basically
[04:39:47] anyways. So let me know what you think in the comments below. Uh, please like that channel if you haven't already. But yeah, let me know if you've ever been affected by uh a short option that had a
[04:40:00] left. Not a dividend stock, but like maybe someone made a mistake. Maybe the counterparty made a mistake. They converted to shares. You get to keep that premium. You sold out of it again. Uh, it's only happened to me once in 10
[04:40:12] years. So hopefully that kind of stuff happens to you guys more often. Uh, but let me know what you think in the comments below and we'll see you on the comments below and we'll see you on the next episode of Options in Action.
[04:40:30] but the business keeps improving. Q1 revenue grew 17%. Sports book margins are expanding, and the new prediction market world is already running at a 3.1 billion annualized volume. Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish. 29 analysts
[04:40:46] rate the stock as a strong buy with targets as high as $52 per share. The World Cup could be the catalyst. Tournament expands from 64 to 104 matches, runs 39 days, and could generate up to 4 billion in US betting
[04:41:01] handle. DraftKings is expected to process more than a billion of wagers alone. The stock is still trading like a company in decline. The question is, is the options market pricing the biggest betting event in history or just the 40%
[04:41:14] pullback? Let's check it out on today's episode of Options Math Check. So, we've got the Tasty Trade platform pulled up here and the DraftKings chart, as you can see, uh, is looking a little bit better than it has recently. Um, but
[04:41:28] when we zoom out, we can see this thing has taken a beating here. Um, but I think what's really interesting with DraftKings is simply the fact that you constantly have high implied volatility in here. Like even the product right
[04:41:41] it. Not people are not many people are trading it, but it still boasts a 50 60% implied volatility. They've got earnings coming up at the end of August. And I DraftKing is one of these products where it's like when football season's going,
[04:41:58] calls for earnings announcements, they're talking about the revenue from football season and all these things. The World Cup is obviously a layup for them. They're going to be making a ton of uh revenue from the transactions
[04:42:10] office was just like, can I bet on DraftKings for the World Cup? And we're it's going to be interesting to see how the stock market reacts uh specifically with DraftKings alone. But when we dive into the options here, we can see uh and
[04:42:26] being in the money on either side. And we can clearly see that there's an interesting pricing dynamic here when you look at the outofthe money strikes relative to uh the puts and the calls. So I always like to check out just
[04:42:42] equidistant strikes to see in the near-term and also the long term if clearly there's a little bit of call skew. We've got a 40 40cent option bid on the 25 strike which is about five points out of the money to the downside.
[04:42:56] But we've got about a 50cent bid on the upside, five points out of the money to the upside at 35. That's in the July cycle doesn't account for earnings. But if we look at August, which will have the earning cycle, and we do the same
[04:43:09] analysis, we've got a 25 strike at a dollar and the 35 strike at a$125 or$130. So the market's pricing in the velocity of risk to be to the upside with this call skew and that's really what call skew is. It's just the options
[04:43:24] are more expensive compared to equidist and out of the money puts and that tells us that the market is pricing in velocity of risk to be to the upside if we're going to see a big move. Uh, and if we look at the end of the year,
[04:43:36] December 2026, looking at these same strikes, the 25 strike, five points out of the money, trading for about 250, and the 35 trading for way more, a dollar more, trading for about 325. So, I think
[04:43:50] this is super interesting and super telling. uh just the fact that the stock has been beaten up, but to the earlier point, you have increasing products, you have increasing revenues, you've got almost every state available in the US
[04:44:03] uh for betting markets and prediction markets and whatnot. So, I think when bring in the fact that we've got the World Cup, we've got football season right around the corner, I think it's only going to be good things for
[04:44:16] necessarily mean that the stock price is going to rally or should rally or will rally, but based on the pricing alone, looked at two different options expirations. So, I would say, you know,
[04:44:29] if if we're looking at bullish strategies, at the very least, we can use that call skew either in July or August or even longer term cycles, we can use the call skew to our cost basis reduction advantage by selling that
[04:44:43] option against something else. So like a call diagonal spread where you've got a short out of the money call further up the options chain, you're collecting more than if you had a bearish strategy on and the stock's already at 29. Uh it
[04:44:56] of course could go to zero. But if I'm playing for a move to 45 or 50 or 55 at the very least, we've got that call skew to help us out in terms of cost basis think in the comments below. Please like this video and subscribe to the Chasey
[04:45:11] Live YouTube channel and we'll see you on the next episode of Options Math on the next episode of Options Math Check.
[04:45:23] of America says seven of 10 bare market signposts just triggered. The same average seen at every market peak since 1990. The Buffett indicator, which measures the total value of the US stock market as a percentage of GDP, was at
[04:45:38] market as a percentage of GDP, was at 219% as of March 2026, which is 65% above the long-term trend line. Buffett himself said that when it approaches 200%, investors are playing with fire. Hit a record of 228% previously. The
[04:45:53] Schiller Cape is at 39.8% only higher once at the dot peak. Kramer flick flipped cautious Monday night, warning a wave of mega IPOs, including a
[04:46:05] potential trillion dollar open AI deal, could drain liquidity from the rest of the market. Goldman says crowded positioning means when this unwinds, it unwinds fast. The bulls aren't dead. Morgan Stanley sees 8% upside still, and
[04:46:19] history says the fourth year of a bull market finishes positive. So, who's right? A lot of conflicting information here. Let's find out on this edition of here. Let's find out on this edition of Options Math Check. So, we got the S&P
[04:46:32] chart pulled up here and uh like we were just mentioning, I mean, what goes up fast might come down fast. We're kind of seeing that play out here. The E- Minis went from 6,300 all the way up to 7,600 in a matter of a month and a half. And
[04:46:47] just over the past 4 days, we're seeing market moves and intraday moves that are massive here to the downside. specifically e-men down 1 and a.5% today. NASDAQ down 2.8% uh kind of mirroring that big wash out we saw on
[04:47:03] interesting about this market uh and maybe a testament to the potential maybe a testament to the potential bearish case is that crude oil, the one thing we've been hanging our hat on time and time again in terms of if we see the
[04:47:16] market down, we typically see crude oil ripping higher. Crude oil is not moving to the upside. is actually selling off today. And you parlay that with the fact expirations in these uh different
[04:47:30] backwardation I've seen in crude oil in quite some time. 8795 in the front, 8643 in the back. This thing got as wide as 15 points at the height of the war. So I
[04:47:42] think with this backwardation going away and crude oil down today, I don't think we can lean on that anymore in terms of finding a reason why the market is that crude oil is down and the market is down big uh is a testament to this being
[04:47:56] an equity move versus a reaction in uh global tension. So I think that's really interesting. And uh when we look at S&P specifically for the end of the year here, 200 days away, we're seeing some
[04:48:09] really interesting things play out in terms of implied volatility. We've got a $6,600 price on the 8,300 call, which is a,000 points above the current market price with a 15% probability of being in the
[04:48:22] money. You go to the downside, 1,000 points, and we've got put skew here, plenty of put skew uh to the downside. Now, you've got an option price at 6,300
[04:48:34] Now, you've got an option price at 6,300 that is about to eclipse $13,000 with a 21% probability of being in the money. So, not only is the probability higher to the downside, now you've got more than twice the amount of premium or
[04:48:46] almost exactly twice the amount of premium when it compares to uh put versus call premium. This wasn't the case about a month ago when the markets were rising higher. You saw uh similar pricing from the put side to the call
[04:48:59] side. And we also have to factor in the fact that S&P prices in interest rate premium on the call side. So take that for what you will, but as of right now, we are seeing put skew getting infused into this market into this sell-off. As
[04:49:14] you might imagine, pretty sizable sell-off. Probabilities are are higher to the downside now. And I think the most interesting thing here is this volatility curve. So when we had the big market rally, we saw volatility creep
[04:49:28] into the teens. We saw the VIX in the low teens. Uh but now we're seeing the volatility curve flatten out here. Just a few days ago, we had a two-point contango between the M and the N contract. The M contract currently sits
[04:49:40] contract. The M contract currently sits at 2040. The N is at 2115. So, it's not even a point of contango. Now, we are flattening out across the curve. A couple months ago, uh maybe a couple weeks ago, we had a fivepoint contango
[04:49:52] between the near-term contract and the V contract. Now, you can see it's only a twopoint contango. So, this entire V curve is flattening out. You're seeing an 8% increase in the M contract and the VIX I think is the story here. Uh up 14%
[04:50:08] up three points up to 21 and a half. I think if we see this continue another red day in the market down 100 points or 150 points and the NASDAQ selling off as you could see this V curve completely flatten out. Maybe we trickle into
[04:50:23] backwardation. And I've always said if the volume if the ball market goes into backwardation, that is the gate that opens for a further market selloff. I'm talking 10, 15, 20% to the downside. Uh until that happens though, I'm going to
[04:50:37] be uh trying my best to pick my spots here to the upside, staying defined risk. Uh but again, if this V curve completely flatten flattens out or if we go into backwardation, I think that might be uh a sign that we could see a
[04:50:51] bigger move to the downside. Uh there's lots of warning signs out there like we mentioned earlier, but again the V curve and volatility is uh my crystal ball in terms of my guiding light and how I position myself. Uh but I've always been
[04:51:06] uh placing some downside hedges and S&P NDX. I actually just closed out of a couple of them today. So uh make sure that you're accounting for all things. Even if you're bullish, you still should still have some bearish hedges on,
[04:51:18] albeit small. Uh that's how I like to play it. But let me know what you think in the comments below. Please like this video, subscribe to the Tasty Live channel, and we'll see you on the next options math check.
[04:51:35] best ways that you can help us by liking the video or subscribing to the channel. Either one of those guys really helps us out a lot. All right, so earning season is here and we all know what that means. Everybody wants in on the action, right?
[04:51:49] get going. We want to trade our favorite stocks. We want to get in on the big names, use our favorite strategies, take our directional shots and what have you. But we all know that earnings, man, it can go either direction. I mean, these
[04:52:02] events are binary in nature for a reason. There is most likely going to be a very explosive move in the stock one way or the other. And so, when it comes to earning specifically, a lot of times using a strategy that is defined risk is
[04:52:16] you guys know if you follow me for any love defined risk strategies. You know that I think there's a lot more opportunity with undefined risk strategies. But still, we have to be
[04:52:28] aware of kind of the potential quagmire that we're walking into. And so around earnings, I definitely have a greater love, at least a greater like for defined risk strategy. So today, I want to walk through my all-time favorite
[04:52:41] defined risk strategy for earnings, the expected move butterfly. So most of the trading time and we're trading volatility, right? We're selling We've got the positive data. We've got the the time decay. We've got all those
[04:52:56] great. We're also trading volatility. We're trading volatility's natural trading volatilities, you know, natural kind of grind lower over time. And so these two things are nondirectional in nature. And that's typically what we're
[04:53:09] hanging our head on as a premium seller. Okay. But every once in a while we might in a while we might want to take a bullish shot. Every once in a while we might want to take a bearish shot. And around earnings, one of the metrics that
[04:53:22] can be really nice to kind of have an objective view of the analysis around that stock or the market at that given time or what have you is the expected move for that cycle. So looking looking at the expected move using the expected
[04:53:35] move for that cycle in that stock can really give you an unbiased look at what the market is pricing in for the upside or the downside. And the really cool thing is we can use the expected move alongside the expected move butterfly to
[04:53:50] set up a really nice directional shot that's relatively cheap to play earnings and play it to the upside or the downside, however we see fit. So, let's hop into Tasty Trade now and let's set one of these guys up. All right, so I'm
[04:54:03] inside of my Tasty Trade platform and I picked a real doozy of a time to do an because it's not really earning season right now. And so, if you go to like the can look at the all earnings. I was looking at this before the video and
[04:54:18] it's like, man, we've got Len like Len has earnings today. Never heard of them, later today or this morning. I guess we could potentially trade Adobe. But you've got Kroger next week and JBL on ACN and it's like, okay, this is not
[04:54:32] exactly the season for the heavy hitters. Like, if I go into the Tasty Default watch list and I sort by earnings just by clicking on the that I mean, there aren't really any decent ones coming up that we like to
[04:54:44] trade on a regular basis until later on in July. And so, really, this isn't the best possible time to do a video like this, but we are so far into it now, we ahead and still use the same basic principles of trading an expected move
[04:54:59] butterfly in the front week around a binary event and so that way you are ready come time July when there are more earnings opportunities. Okay, so let's use Google for the purposes of this example. Now, I may not have done a good
[04:55:13] job from a calendar standpoint in terms of the best possible time to do a video like this. However, it is a Thursday. So today's a Thursday and oftentimes using an expecting a butterfly. I'm looking to set that guy up in the front week. So
[04:55:26] using that Friday's expiration and the reality is this Thursday into Friday butterflies are really really nice because with a butterfly you want to nail the direction of move close to expiration. That's going to allow you to
[04:55:40] achieve the most profitability out of the strategy. And so by choosing and going into Friday, if you do get the move that you want, you're going to be decent amount of money in a pretty short amount of time on that following days
[04:55:55] butterfly, you know, the previous week or even like a Monday or a Tuesday going into Friday, it's a little bit more challenging to make significant profits on the strategy because with a butterfly, you want all the extrinsic
[04:56:08] value to come out of the options. You want all the extrinsic value to drain out of the options. And butterflies oftentimes cling to their exttrinsic value until the very end. And so Thursday into Friday, butterflies,
[04:56:20] Wednesday into Friday, butterflies using the front week are going to be my Tuesday into Friday, I'll still do them because they do give you more not likely going to make that much money. Okay. And so if we pretended that
[04:56:34] Google had earnings tonight, let's say, and I wanted to set up a butterfly to take advantage of that, then what I might do is, let's say I want to play times the way that I'm going to set up my butterfly is I want to situate my
[04:56:47] strike right around where the expected move cuts off. So this copper strip is the expected move for this cycle. So it's only a one-day cycle. The expected move obviously is only plus or minus about five bucks. And so if I bought a
[04:57:00] 345 and I sold a 340 and I went ahead and bought a 335 because the butterfly has to be a one by two by one. So I go back into the center and a and I double that guy up and you
[04:57:13] and a and I double that guy up and you can see that is a very very cheap way to take a directional shot. Right? I'm only paying 90 or 91 cents for a $5 wide butterfly. And so again, very cheap way. Take your directional shot. If you miss
[04:57:27] if Google rallies, then you're only going to lose what you paid. Like, the debit that you paid. If we were to set this guy up on the call side, you're going to see a very, very similar setup. If I buy a 345, I sell a 350, I buy a
[04:57:42] 355, I double up on the 350. Again, it's 95 cents. It's basically a symmetric market right now with uh with the Google be with the the Google with Google being right around 345. And so with us kind of
[04:57:54] starting at that 345 market, we essentially have same the same pricing you want to play it down or up, it's effectively going to be the same risk in both trades and the same risk return dynamic. And generally speaking, what I
[04:58:08] want to do here is I want to size my butterfly such that it fits with my Remember, with defined risk, we want to be typically 1 to 3% of our account. here, the from theory to practice account, this is about a $35,000
[04:58:24] position relative to my account size. I could easily go up a few more dollars, somewhere between 1 to 3%. If you want to live on the lower end, you want to completely up to you, of course, but generally speaking, that's going to be a
[04:58:37] pretty good range where we can where we can live. Now, the wider you make your butterfly, the easier it's going to be to make money. That is just the truth. But of course, we've heard it before, and here it is again. For every gimme,
[04:58:51] there's got to be a gotcha. And so, if I'm going to widen out my butterfly, then I'm going to have to pay more for that additional width. So, for example, just to make this a bit simpler, let's say I move my 345 strike down to 342,
[04:59:05] and I move my 355 strike up to 357 12. Look at what happens with uh to the debit that I pay. It's gone up to $2.32. But now I have a lot more money that I could potentially make. Now my maximum property is over $500 whereas before it
[04:59:19] was only about $400. My probability is higher than it was previously because again the market understands and the metrics understand that this is going to be an easier trade to manage if it moves in my favor. If you have a super tight
[04:59:32] butterfly like a dollar wide or $2 wide, like yes, it's going to be dirt cheap. anything. Like you're literally not even going to know that it's gone if you lose it. The problem is those are very very hard to manage. Those are very difficult
[04:59:45] needle. I have to get the perfect price at the perfect time. And so I much prefer to widen out my butterflies to give them kind of more room to breathe. butterfly. Whether it's to the upside or the downside doesn't really matter.
[04:59:58] bias that I might have. But this is going to make a little bit more sense. Give me a little bit more kind of meat on the bone when it comes to, you know, more economic significance. So, when you're setting up your butterfly, your
[05:00:11] expected move butterfly, I should say, pin the short strike, I'm sorry, pin the and then choose the width of the butterfly relative to your position sizing parameters in your account. And again, this is a great strategy for a
[05:00:25] binary event like an earnings release. So, there you go. That is an expected technically around earnings event because I couldn't really find one we all know and trade and are familiar with. And so save this in your
[05:00:38] repertoire for when earning season comes around in just a couple of weeks. And so to hang our hat as premium sellers on time and volatility. But still from time to time taking a directional shot. I mean it's fun. It's fun. It's part of
[05:00:52] little bit of money. And now you have a really really cheap way to do that move butterfly. And I'll see you guys next time.
[05:01:07] best ways you can help us are by liking the video or subscribing to the channel. Either one of those guys really helps us out a lot. So, generally speaking here right? We want to play into the high probabilities. We want to play into the
[05:01:20] side of the option contract, generally speaking. But every once in a while, we every once in a while, we like to buy volatility. Every once in a while we like to use debit strategies and kind of play for volatility rising. And one of
[05:01:34] the classic strategies to set up for that type of play is a calendar spread. So what I want to do uh what I want to do today is hop into the platform and let's set up a calendar spread. But before we set this guy up, let's just
[05:01:47] talk in general terms what is a calendar spread look like? Well, it is going to be a multiple expiration cycle strategy where you're selling the front month and you're buying the back month. you're choosing the same strike in both months.
[05:01:59] So, it's very much an overlapping feature of the strategy between the short option in the front month and the long option in the back month. And the way is because you want to take advantage of two elements. You want to
[05:02:11] it's a debit strategy. And you also want to take advantage of any potential volatility expansion. So, the time decay comes from the simple fact that that short option that you're selling in the front month, it's going to burn faster
[05:02:24] than the back month. it's going to decay more quickly than that long option that is sitting in that back month. And for the volatility aspect, the back month option is going to have a higher Vega than the front month option. And so by
[05:02:37] month, if there is any volatility expansion in that underlying stock, you are likely going to see a pop in your P&L from that volatility expansion. This is why we typically like to do calendar spreads when volatility is on the lower
[05:02:51] end of the range. So, all right, let's hop into Tasty Trade and let's set one of these up. All right, so here I am inside of my Tasty Trade platform and I've got Meta pulled up and this is a $600 stock. Okay, so the first thing you
[05:03:04] want to understand is we really like to use calendar spreads on higher price stocks. So, not necessarily $600, but the price of the stock doesn't necessarily kind of preclude preclude you or prohibit you from doing a
[05:03:17] calendar spread in that stock because the higher price of the stock really management style that we typically deploy with calendar spreads. We're typically managing these spreads at 10 to 20 to 25% of our debit paid. And so
[05:03:34] if you choose a really low price stock like a $50 stock or a $75 stock, it's spread, which is nice because that is indeed your maximum loss, but it's just economic significance when it comes to the profit potential on that strategy.
[05:03:49] So, okay, so I'm in Meta. The way that we would generally set up a calendar spread is going to be again, I'm selling the front month and I'm buying the back right now for the purposes of this illustration. We'll come back to that at
[05:04:03] a later date. Usually, we like to be at about a 1:2 ratio between the front see we're at about that ratio right here with this meta calendar spread. So, when I go to set this guy up, I'm going to open up my July cycle first. Now, in
[05:04:20] we're going to be selling and buying the same strike. So, the 580 in bull cycles or the 560 in bull cycles or what have you. Usually calendar spreads, the spirit of the calendar spread is a more
[05:04:33] of a neutral strategy. So you're usually typically choosing a calendar spread with some strike around where the stock is currently. Now you want the stock to pin the strike. So whatever you choose, that's where you want the stock to go.
[05:04:45] then you can certainly choose strikes on the low end. You can certainly choose strikes on the high end if you want to be more bearish or more bullish. But usually the spirit of a calendar spread is more of a neutral strategy. On that
[05:04:59] note, we typically prefer put calendars relative to call calendars. It's not a huge difference, but remember this is a volatility expansion play. This is a long volatility play. So, volatility rises, that's going to help our calendar
[05:05:13] know and maybe this is the first time you're hearing it, but market prices and market volatility typically move inversely. So, when market prices are can even see it on a day like today where the market is down huge and
[05:05:27] And so we typically observe this relationship across the board with a lot of individual stocks as well. So if I'm playing volatility to expand, I'm playing volatility to the upside, then I want to position myself to potentially
[05:05:41] volatility expansion as I possibly can. So choosing the put option slightly below where the stock currently sits even if it is mostly neutral. Choosing a 580 or 575 that's going to allow me to situate my strike such that if there is
[05:05:56] volatility expansion and the stock price moving lower that's going to really help me. So right here let's say I sell a 580 strike which is just slightly below where Meta is right now in July. And then I close up July. I go to August and
[05:06:08] I buy the same strike the 580 strike. And so notice how this is a debit of $14 on this strategy. So this is a fairly significantly priced calendar spread. You would probably want to have, I would say, maybe $30,000 in your account or
[05:06:23] maybe even a little bit less. But this is not going to be a strategy for a tasty bite-sized account. But if I'm managing this at 10% of debit paid, that's 280 bucks. So, it's pretty significant when it comes to the
[05:06:37] management. When I'm using my or when I'm selecting my strikes, I want to make sure that the exttrinsic value in the front month is over and greater than the gives me the best possible chance to make money from time decay because I
[05:06:52] know if nothing happens and the stock just sits here, which we know that it and ends up back here when all is said and done, then all that extrinsic value that came off of that front month is going to cover the debit that I pay in
[05:07:05] effectively make it a little bit easier for me to make money. So this $14 and for me to make money. So this $14 and some odd cents. If we go back to July where my front month is, you can see I'm collecting over $22 in extrinsic value.
[05:07:19] I know that that's all extrinsic value because this option is out of the money. is setting up in meta looks pretty good. This would be a great candidate for a kind of makes sense from the higher priced stock preference to the put uh
[05:07:35] put preference. It's mostly a neutral strategy managing aggressively at 10 to 20% or even 25% of debit paid and then making sure that front month extrinsic covers the debit. So, okay. So, that is a calendar spread. Hopefully, that makes
[05:07:48] points of setting up a calendar spread. Now, in today's market with the VIX skyrocketing and volatility rising, this may not be the best market to sell a C or put on a calendar spread in. But when volatility eventually collapses, when
[05:08:01] volatility eventually contracts, as we know that it will, if history is any guide, now hopefully you are ready with a strategy that can take advantage of that low volatility. And I'll see you guys next time.
[05:08:18] today, the best ways you can help us are liking the video or subscribing to the channel. Either one of those really helps us out a lot. Okay, so around here you guys already know the drill. Like you already know that we are premium
[05:08:31] to live on the short side of the option contract. We want to play time. We want probabilities. We want to do all those kinds of things. From time to time, every once in a while, we want to venture off onto the other side of the
[05:08:46] contract and maybe buy a little premium. Well, today that's what I want to talk about. When does it make sense to maybe consider being on the long side of the option contract? Well, I can think of three specific scenarios and I want to
[05:08:59] unpack those in detail right now. So, again, by and large, we want to be on right? We want to play the higher probabilities. When you sell premium, you're going to have probabilities of profit that are in excess of 50%. Could
[05:09:14] be 60, could be 70, could be 80, could be, you know, 97 for my three delta put do that myself, but you've got to blaze your own trail. We want to trade the Okay. We also like being out of the money because that gives us room to be
[05:09:29] buffer and a little bit of wiggle room on the position when it comes to not needing to be right historically. And then lastly, we've got the implied volatility over getting realized volatility on average over time. Doesn't
[05:09:42] that is what we're hanging our hats on. So, when it comes to why we're on the the main reasons why. But when does it make sense to be on the long side of the contract? Well, here's the first scenario. when the VIX is super low,
[05:09:57] like you've got a VIX at 11, 12, 13, 14, you're just not really getting paid to sell premium. You're just not really getting paid to be on that short side of the option contract. And so in these markets when volatility is at these
[05:10:10] more sense to be on the long side of the contract because a option prices are cheaper. So whether you're buying the options outright, again, something else I don't know that I would necessarily suggest, or even buying your spreads,
[05:10:23] than they would be if volatility was higher. But then also remember, volatility has a tendency to mean revert. Like volatility has a tendency to move back towards its long run average. So with a long run average VIX
[05:10:35] at like maybe 16, 17ish, when you've got a VIX at 134, like there's some upper now volatility can live on the lower end of the range for a very very very very very long time. And so it doesn't mean that
[05:10:49] or tomorrow or the next week but statistically this is a decent time to take a shot by buying premium and playing for that volatility expansion. Okay. So scenario number two earnings. Right? If you've been around the tasty
[05:11:04] love to trade earnings. There's high volatility. There's lots of movement, lots of action. And honestly it's just fun. like you want to do something in something in, you know, some hot stock in the marketplace, you want to take a
[05:11:16] doesn't matter. It's just it's fun. It's engaging to trade earnings. know, man. I mean, it can be a little crazy, right? The moves after an earnings event can be rather significant. So, it can make a whole lot
[05:11:31] of sense to maybe buy options going into earnings rather than selling options. By is still on the short side of the contract even for earnings that some people might look at the scenario and the situation and say,
[05:11:45] looking at Amazon earnings." And maybe you're trading Nvidia earnings. And this from the short side. I would much rather do this from the long side." That's totally fair. That's very reasonable. That's going to be a great
[05:11:59] time and a great scenario for you to lean into the long side of the options premiums. You could buy vertical spreads. Hey, you could buy expect to calculated risk. You could buy a lot of different strategies, diagonals,
[05:12:12] calendar spreads, even around earnings and play that long side of the option contract in a much more controlled way. Okay, scenario number three. It's also going to give you a little bit of strategic diversification, right? when
[05:12:26] a book as the pros call it, and it's mostly short premium, it's mostly short options. It's like that's all well and the theta, you got all those things, but just to smooth things out a little bit,
[05:12:39] just to smooth out your directional bias, just to smooth out your, you know, different strategy sets that you might be using, it can make a little bit of sense to add in some long options and add in some long spreads and add in some
[05:12:53] debit strategies that really kind of balance everything out. Now, let's be verticals, you're buying calendars, you're buying diagonals. In my humble things that move the needle. Those are not going to be the things that
[05:13:06] trying to go. And so, we can't expect too much out of our long premium strategies and put too much pressure on them to carry the load and carry the weight. That's what the short premium is supposed to do. And so, it definitely
[05:13:19] but we just have to temper our expectations, make sure that we're not you know, things that they were really never intended to do. Because remember, when you buy options, especially naked
[05:13:33] spreads, what are you giving up? What are you sacrificing? What are the you're not going to have high probability. You're either going to have spread, or you're going to have very low probability, 10%, 20%, 30% with like a
[05:13:48] butterfly or something like that. And you also don't have time working for you. So, the two primary pillars of what we like to lean on as a premium seller non-existent or b working against you when you buy premium. So, hopefully now
[05:14:02] you can kind of see we can't really expect too much out of these strategies in the end in terms of being a really significant needle mover. And that's why at Tasty Trade, we lean on the probabilities, we lean on theta, we lean
[05:14:15] on the short side of the option contract because we do feel like that's where big needle movers. Those are going to be the things that get us where we're forward. But still, there's a time and a place to add a little bit of long
[05:14:29] premium to your portfolio. And hopefully now it's a little bit clearer to you what those times are and where those places are. And I'll see you guys next places are. And I'll see you guys next time.
[05:14:44] Spivac, head of global macro here at Tasty Live with a very special guest joining us uh today. Jeff Curry is here. He's the executive co-chairman of Abac Commodity Futures Exchange, senior adviser to the Carow Group, and the
[05:14:59] global head of former global head of commodities research, I should say, at a little place called Goldman Sachs. Uh welcome, Jeff. forward to it.
[05:15:12] I have uh the perfect guest here I think for the events that we have unfolding in the world. Uh obviously we have some sort of a US Iran deal maybe possibly finally coming together. You've pointed out that uh you can't print molecules
[05:15:29] and so all of this stuff may be kind of a moot point. What do you think is going on here? Obviously crude is down on it. Well, I you know, I think there's a couple things creating the downdraft in in prices. One is people were
[05:15:44] anticipating a deal, so they've quit buying. There's a buyer strike going on. Now, you can see it in tertiary inventories around the world. They're withholding their buying. The Chinese are withholding their buying. All of
[05:15:56] means you're going to have pent up demand on the other side of the deal. So, that's point number one, the investors liquidating their positions. um anticipation prices are going to drop. Uh by the way, when the deal on
[05:16:11] going to rally because you have all of this selling pressure into this, which I would argue is probably the more likely outcome here. Um the the other factor is what's likely this deal has a near-term impact, which it could unleash the pent
[05:16:26] impact, which it could unleash the pent up oil that's that's inside the the Gulf not much. Call it 60 plus million barrels. um we're drawing six million barrels a day. That gives you buys you 10 days of inventory. That's not a whole
[05:16:39] lot. Longer term, there's a much bigger issue here. Um you listen to the likes of Marisk or um Mitsui, they're not willing to take the ships back into the Gulf right now. And the reason being is they don't see how this thing is solved.
[05:16:54] So I think there's a lot of unanswered questions right now. Um it means that you know the uncertainty remains high and um you know the sustainability of the deal is is highly questioned. The bottom line is both sides are claiming a
[05:17:08] victory bragging about things that don't match. So I'm really curious what's going to happen on Friday when these issues come to a head. >> And of course the immediate read through when this war began was all right. So we
[05:17:21] have a disruption in oil that means inflationary impetus. uh that means higher yields, that means a stronger dollar, uh that means uh the price of gold comes down. Uh all of this uh obviously coming together uh and it's a
[05:17:38] very interesting time to have this deal because of course we have the FOMC policy announcement uh the first one for Kevin Worsh coming up. Do you think that the markets are right to still think we've got a rate hike on the menu here
[05:17:52] away quickly and the inflationary impetus remains? >> I definitely believe there's, you know, this stuff's not going away quickly because even if you wanted to one, you got to resolve the mines. France just
[05:18:05] demining this until they see how it plays out on Friday. Then after you get rid of all the mines, you got to get the ships to come back. That's number one. there. What's going to get them to go back in there when the the deal doesn't
[05:18:19] have all the parties involved um party to it? You know, the Israelis weren't a part of it. The other Gulf States weren't a part of it. When you look at the likes of I think it was yesterday JD
[05:18:32] pay the 300 billion that's owed to the Iranians in this? Yeah, our Gulf friends are going to take care of it. Well, were the Gulf friends, you know, consulted? Nobody's seen any details of this. Um, these are big questions that need to be
[05:18:45] come back. Okay, so let's say they agree to bring the ships back in. Then you have to go find the ships and the ships are all out of place right now. Um, it's going to take, you know, bare minimum 6 to 8 weeks just to get the ships back
[05:18:59] after you've demined. Um, and then you got to they got to feel going to be another outbreak and you got your ship tracked in there. I mean, so behind this and be comfortable that that it's a sustainable deal. Um, so I think
[05:19:15] there's there's a lot of question marks that remain open here, which means in the interim you're still drawing inventories, markets are getting tighter and creating the potential for substantially more upside.
[05:19:28] Well, I think the question of inventories is a very important one. I think you you've made uh the point very clearly that much of the kind of resilience we've had to this oil shock so far has come because inventories have
[05:19:43] been pulled to such an aggressive extent and certainly not just in the US where it looks like we're exporting uh a lot to kind of cover the gap but global to kind of cover the gap but global inventories as well. How much of a of a
[05:19:57] price shock do you think there is here? Obviously, we've seen CPI and PPI numbers are already showing spillover from this into core. Is this something that's with us here? Is this now an inflationary shock that's already in the
[05:20:12] cake? Wait, is you're you're already seeing as you point you're seeing in the numbers already. It can only get worse from here, not better. Um because the situation is tighter today than it was two months ago, than it was 3 months
[05:20:25] ago. It's progressively getting tighter every single day this goes on. So therefore, you have to come to the conclusion that global supply chains are more stretched today than what they were then. So if it was a problem already in
[05:20:38] the CPI data, then it's got to even be a bigger problem today and tomorrow until bigger problem today and tomorrow until this thing absolutely resolves itself. >> That's right. Uh okay. So let's then follow that lead. So if this is more of
[05:20:53] an issue, we already have an economy where the consumer is getting squeezed by this. Certainly not just in the US, but everywhere. Let's focus on the US for a moment. We have this blistering buildout of AI that's driving the
[05:21:07] economy, but the consumer is obviously a much bigger piece of the pie, and that's the piece that's getting squeezed. Are we starting to flirt with some sort of stagflation type of a dynamic? Obviously, you can't call stagflation so
[05:21:20] early, but is this where we're heading? And what is the Fed supposed to do with this? Well, I I you know the you know the I'm not going to be going saying I'm not a macro guy to make the you know
[05:21:34] stagflation type of argument. But I think they're they're stuck between uh think they're they're stuck between uh you know two two conflicting dynamics. You have AI is a deflationary force and you have um commodity scarcity as an
[05:21:49] inflationary force. So you got these two things going in very different directions and I think it's we're going to create a lot of cross signals for them. Um but I also want to make the point is that the deflationary pressures
[05:22:03] point is that the deflationary pressures on AI are predicated on the ability that it's like the old tech model infinitely scalable at zero marginal cost. This one's not infinitely scalable at zero marginal cost. This is your standard
[05:22:16] does it have data going in it, but it has atoms and molecules who face upward sloping supply curves. So this is not your standard tech model anymore. This is good oldfashioned commodities. So you know the I like to do is we're replacing
[05:22:33] know the I like to do is we're replacing humans with commodities in AI and commod human beings are renewable commodities are not and I think that point gets lost. So you know that deflationary pressure that comes from traditional
[05:22:49] tech um frameworks I don't know if it really applies here. This is just good oldfashioned commodity production and I think this is what's been lost by the investors. They think that these companies are magic and that they you
[05:23:02] know they can trade at whatever times earnings. These are good old-fashioned cyclical commodity companies now. They get 10 to 15 multiples not 30 or 40 multiples then that point I think is completely lost on on many of the
[05:23:15] investors as well as the macro community and assuming how deflationary this whole >> I actually agree. I think you look at the growth mix at least in the first quarter. You see business investments spinning at over 10% annualized rate.
[05:23:31] Meanwhile, consumption is growing slower than the economy itself. And you go, well, I wonder if you spin a tiny piece of the economy that fast. What's going to happen? Inflation. Uh and so, uh the buildout may be uh inflationary. And
[05:23:45] then we'll get to the deflation part when and if this thing is finally built eventually, possibly. Uh I think you're spot on here. So for me as I look at this sort of the natural question then becomes we've had these uh really
[05:24:02] becomes we've had these uh really exuberant moves in stocks this week with uh the announcement of this deal. Ostensibly people are celebrating that we're going to uh get the inflation risk out of the equation. We're going to get
[05:24:14] oil back down and sort of get back to business as usual. Do you think all of this is actually setting up to be a disappointment for stock markets? >> Absolutely. Unfortunately, I think that that is going to be the case. And what
[05:24:29] one thing I don't understand, the corporates are telling you, I'm not going to go mind sweep because they don't believe it. So why do US financial markets believe it if the corporates don't? The other foreign governments
[05:24:43] don't. Um, that's the part that I'm a little baffled by that they're just selling all of this really hard and trading it as if it is a permanent trading it as if it is a permanent sticky deal, but the reality is very few
[05:24:57] participants actually come to that same conclusion. >> What do you think is the demand destruction aspect of this? I mean, obviously, we're going to get to a place ostensibly if crude oil keeps marching
[05:25:10] and the consumer keeps getting squeezed where it's going to start to bear down on the economy as a kind of cyclical squeeze. What's the window where that starts to counteract the supply shortages and sort of the bottleneck
[05:25:24] there? >> I I think the it's not going to happen in the US, unlikely to happen here in Europe. It's most likely going to happen in emerging markets and places in Asia and we're already beginning and have
[05:25:37] seen it. So, it's not something that you will likely feel at home, which is part this. It's something that's going to happen more broader on a on a much happen more broader on a on a much bigger um um scale than than just
[05:25:52] happening, you know, on a on a more smaller scale. So I think these are smaller scale. So I think these are these are um you know I think you know what'll probably happen is once it encapsulates and becomes bigger is the
[05:26:05] US is exporting oil and product all around the world. The endgame is that harm to the rest of the world. That's how this probably is. So the Americans result in demand destruction because they're too rich relative to the rest of
[05:26:20] the world. >> One last question here. Obviously the implication for for all of this uh as we've said has been higher rates because inflationary impetus basically on day one of this war and one of the
[05:26:35] consequences has been gold prices which were on a relentless march last year and really the whole precious metals complex has come down significantly because of course these things don't yield anything in in real terms and when rates go up
[05:26:49] that's not a good thing for them. Uh do you think that is a thing that's going oil to continue to be sticky at these higher levels? Is gold going to continue falling here? >> Yeah, I you know I I put out a piece you
[05:27:04] know a few months ago where I was short gold and the reason being is for that the rates are going to be higher. They're having to sell gold to fund defense and energy security programs. Um which is putting a lot of downward
[05:27:19] pressure. You know, last week we went as low as 4,000. I think the the key message is you don't get long gold again until you're on the back side of this and central banks are now beginning to think about rate cuts. Um, and at that
[05:27:32] point, that's why I think you really open up the upside on gold. Um, you know, we 5,500 was the previous high. Yeah, I think you know we could even double from there because ultimately you're asking what kind of share of
[05:27:44] central bank assets does does gold need to get to um to you know you look at to get to um to you know you look at places like China um on a global basis actually with prices down we're probably back down about equal to where US
[05:27:59] treasuries were as a share of reserve assets so call it in that 25 26% but if you go back to where we were in the 60s or 70s um you got to push that up into the 40 to 50% range, which is essentially
[05:28:14] another doubling in the price from here. Um so that's why I would argue that there's still a lot more upside left to gold. Um however, I wouldn't want to be for it. >> And that ladies and gentlemen is where
[05:28:29] we'll leave it. Uh Jeff Curry, thanks very much for joining us. Let the folks know where they can get more from you. >> Yeah. Um you can see in um you know carile.com a couple of pieces the new drill order the abundance illusion um
[05:28:42] you can't print molecules um and you know the the you know another one is the new Marshall plan. I would take a look at all of those. Those might >> Beautiful. Thank you very much Jeff. Uh we hope you'll come back and continue to
[05:28:56] enlighten us here on Trading Trends. >> Thank you. Take care. their moment right now. In my view, it's just another way for traders to take a
[05:29:12] For tasty traders, that's what matters. This is how options traders think. probability in terms of betting. How much is the market implying? What's my have on a pretty interesting guest here today, Maria Kzo, uh founder of Kelvin,
[05:29:28] an AI platform used to help prediction market traders. Before Kelvin, she was VP of product over at Zeroash where she built crypto infrastructure for some of institutions. She's previously held roles at Black Rockck and 21 Shares. So,
[05:29:41] the crypto side, and now she has the prediction market intelligence angle as prediction market intelligence angle as well. Maria, welcome to Trading Trends. having me. Very happy to be here today. >> So, let's start about prediction markets
[05:29:56] at the topline level. Uh for a trader who's never used KCI poly market or an event contract, try to ground this quickly here. A contract may ask whether meeting, if CPI is going to print above a certain level, or a company
[05:30:08] contemplates or completes an IPO by a certain date. So what's a prediction market? How does pricing work and how does the settlement work compared to other financial assets? >> Sure. Yeah. Well, as we know, more and
[05:30:20] more of the world is being priced as an explicit probability. So we have Fed, we have sports, we have IPOs as well coming up. Uh the challenge is making sense of them. So uh some traders are actually starting to use event contracts as
[05:30:37] starting to use event contracts as precision hedges on specific binary risks. Uh so it's early and liquidity is a constraint, but that's the direction a constraint, but that's the direction we're going. Um as an example, let's say
[05:30:50] we're going. Um as an example, let's say your book is rate sensitive. So, a no cuts in 2026 contract pays off in exactly the scenario that would hurt exactly the scenario that would hurt that book. Um, some people might ask,
[05:31:03] you know, what is the difference between hedging your portfolio with options versus hedging your portfolio with prediction markets? And uh the answer is an option hedges the market's reaction to an event. So the volatility, the move
[05:31:19] to an event. So the volatility, the move in the underlying asset and an event contract pays on the event itself. So these are binary contracts. They settle these are binary contracts. They settle at a dollar or zero and therefore you
[05:31:32] at a dollar or zero and therefore you have defined risk on both directions. So uh as a prediction market trader, your max loss is what you paid for the contract and your max gain is a dollar on each contract. So you know your risk
[05:31:47] going in when you're setting up uh your strategy. >> So our tasty audience already trades probabilities every single day. Option traders are constantly thinking about implied volatility, expected move, break
[05:31:59] the market is overpricing or underpricing an event. If someone already understands options, what's the easiest bridge over into prediction markets? Where does the logic overlap or perhaps even break down?
[05:32:13] perhaps even break down? >> Yeah. So um let's take let's take a macro lens at Fed rates as an example. >> So the the Fed has held rates steady for the past three meetings. We have next meeting coming up next week with our new
[05:32:27] meeting coming up next week with our new Fed chair uh Kevin Walsh. And um an interesting find in prediction markets um is that wash leans doubbish, but the um is that wash leans doubbish, but the market is pricing roughly 57% odds of
[05:32:42] market is pricing roughly 57% odds of zero cuts across all of 2026 while the Fed's own dot plot still calls for one. So we do get a new uh fresh dot plot
[05:32:54] June 17th. So that's something to look out for. Um but this is just one of the out for. Um but this is just one of the ways you can use macro events uh to to as a part of your strategy um with options, equities, uh prediction
[05:33:07] >> So when we're thinking about the options, we're talking about how much left, volatility inputs. But you mentioned already that the payoff structure for uh uh for prediction markets is often binary. Is the event
[05:33:21] happening or is it not? So, do you find in your research that options market pricing or say predictions market pricing is is more efficient than >> That's a that's a really good comparison. I would say they they're
[05:33:37] pricing two different things. So, you can actually use both of them together. As you mentioned, options are pricing volatility. They're pricing movement. volatility. They're pricing movement. They're pricing the magnitude of of
[05:33:51] maybe an event. Maybe we have an earnings event coming up and you would take a position in an option based on what you think the magnitude of the what you think the magnitude of the outcome would be versus the earnings
[05:34:05] result itself which would be the prediction market whether uh they'll prediction market whether uh they'll beat earnings whether or or not. Um, so strategies that uh traders are are coming up with to to take positions in
[05:34:20] both options and prediction markets to play a more holistic uh view on like >> I'm trying to think about edge here in this case. You know, for options
[05:34:32] traders, there are some folks who just so fundamentally understand how pricing chain and say, "This is out of whack. I need to buy this. I need to sell that. I respect for the underlying. So how does a prediction market trader get edge? Is
[05:34:46] it just by having speed and access to information before everyone else? >> That is that is one of the one of the ways. So prediction markets as we've all been learning they are an information game. It's all about information
[05:34:59] asymmetries uh finding information quickly uh before everyone else does. uh however you prediction market traders can't just trade headlines. So uh especially with
[05:35:12] with Kelvin like prov you know providing that underlying research we encourage traders to really look at what is underlying that headline. What are what are we actually impacting and uh use it as a as another data point. So
[05:35:29] some traders are even using prediction markets as a data point into other models uh into equity models into options models uh and and larger strategies uh which is a which is a flip uh on on the viewpoint of let me take a
[05:35:45] position in a prediction market and hope that I'm right. um instead we're seeing that prediction markets actually have around an 89% accuracy rate across like on average across all of the categories. So what's
[05:36:00] interesting is we can actually take prediction market analytics and plug strategies. >> You've had a lot of experience at various institutions. I mentioned this at the top of this show but Zero Hash
[05:36:13] Black Rockck 21 shears. What did you see in prediction markets that made you say traders need a better platform than this that led you to Kelvin at the end of the day? >> 100%. Yes. Uh so I've I've been in
[05:36:25] crypto for around 10 years at this point and uh I I've been a trader myself uh and uh I I've been a trader myself uh early on. I've traded equities, options, forex, crypto, uh and now we have prediction markets. But what I'm seeing
[05:36:41] is that prediction markets feels like crypto, let's say 2017 where we had an crypto, let's say 2017 where we had an explosion of the of the exchanges, but explosion of the of the exchanges, but really no no data, no tools and and
[05:36:55] traders just kind of flying a little bit blind that early on. And now we're seeing volume just pour into prediction markets. It's it's it is coming from markets. It's it's it is coming from crypto somewhat. And we have all of
[05:37:10] these different categories with really with really no tools at the moment. Uh with really no tools at the moment. Uh so having something that is AI native that can synthesize information faster than any human can and is connected to
[05:37:24] real external data sources uh is something that really helps ground something that really helps ground traders in reality uh versus uh maybe taking a little bit more of a a blind a blind strategy. So I think the question
[05:37:39] is whether or not prediction markets are just another sentiment gauge where they can actually give you insight into the market that maybe other products or asset classes don't. So what do prediction markets see that the stock
[05:37:53] markets just aren't right now that provides them this level of intrigue and >> Yeah, I I think what makes prediction markets uh so powerful at the moment is they are they are global. Um, so there's it's it's taking in global information.
[05:38:10] It's information of the masses, if you will. Uh, something that uh prediction will. Uh, something that uh prediction markets have maybe that traditional markets don't. Let's let's take a look at IPOs. We have SpaceX coming, biggest
[05:38:24] at IPOs. We have SpaceX coming, biggest IPO ever. But what's cool is that you don't need to wait for the bell anymore. So these companies aren't public yet, but you can already trade on when they will be public and what they're worth.
[05:38:38] Uh so that's that's something that prediction markets has uh ahead of traditional markets. >> You mentioned liquidity before. You It's a it's a it's a new way of expressing one's view in the market. But
[05:38:50] how should traders think about liquidity in market? Are these markets ready for serious size right now or are they still viewed as ways to express targeted expressions around a specific event? >> I think there's a lot more headroom when
[05:39:02] it comes to liquidity. Uh so a lot of these strategies that are just now being these strategies that are just now being explored and developed uh in order to uh really have an impact on traditional markets or to have a a really strong
[05:39:16] hedge in larger portfolios um let's say like hedge funds or larger funds. We're definitely going to need more liquidity to come into the space. Uh so really excited to see uh how that grows over time.
[05:39:29] >> As we wrap this up, when you think about prediction market participants making Are they trading around the headline? Are they anchoring to stale probabilities? Are they just chasing a consensus? Why do people fail?
[05:39:43] >> Yeah. Well, I think I think a lot of traders in in prediction markets um it's the moment. So, trading off of headlines, trading off of social media
[05:39:55] and um it there is this perception that you do need to move quickly and you need to get in before the probability shifts. So sometimes uh moving too fast can also be a hindrance uh to making a solid informed decision backed by data and
[05:40:12] using prediction markets in your broader portfolio strategy um rather than a a single maybe maybe you have a single high conviction bet um but prediction markets I believe is have more value in your larger portfolio.
[05:40:28] She's been Maria Kiso, founder of Kelvin, an AI research tool for prediction market traders. I've been Chris Veio. You've been watching Tasty Liv's trading trends. Come back for more videos. Like and subscribe. We'll see
[05:40:40] videos. Like and subscribe. We'll see you next time. Spievac, head of global macro here at Tasty Live, joined by who I think is
[05:40:54] perhaps only our second repeat guest here on the show. Rick Rule is once again with us. He's the founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media. Rick, welcome back. >> Pleasure to be back with you. Thank you.
[05:41:08] questions for you since our last conversation, and I wanted to go right to the dollar and gold, which we uh explained last time. uh how it has been
[05:41:20] that since the beginning of this war in Iran, we've had of course an inflation scare and against that backdrop, interest rates have come up. And so contrary to what people might have thought episodically, the dollar is up
[05:41:33] liquidity and higher rates and gold is down because things have sold it uh to gain that liquidity uh and gain exposure to those rates. I want to keep that conversation going. Obviously, this
[05:41:47] inflation scare is now impacting the broad range of markets. We're seeing it in stocks. We're seeing it in all manner of asset classes. And I wanted to see if
[05:41:59] of asset classes. And I wanted to see if in your mind this is an input into the larger gold conversation. Obviously, people have looked uh at gold as people have looked uh at gold as something of a value hedge against uh
[05:42:11] fiat currencies being hampered by tremendous levels of debt across most large governments, not just the US certainly and not just Europe certainly. certainly and not just Europe certainly. Uh and so I wonder if this kind of
[05:42:25] inflation in your mind in that it inflates the debt away to some extent uh inflates the debt away to some extent uh if that hurts the long-term case or changes the long-term case in any way for gold and precious metals and kind of
[05:42:42] physical value as a counter to fiat in general. I think a study of history general. I think a study of history would suggest that fear of the decline or in certain cases the decimation of purchasing power held in fiat
[05:42:57] instruments has been responsible for most gold moves over the last thousand most gold moves over the last thousand years. Uh people uh attribute all kinds years. Uh people uh attribute all kinds of uh attributes to gold. Uh what one
[05:43:13] of uh attributes to gold. Uh what one finds is that as an example other forms of fear uh war, political unrest, things like that uh have a near-term impact on gold, but they seem to have a negligible long-term uh impact on gold except
[05:43:26] sometimes for participants like refugees, the Jewish community, the Vietnamese community, uh those people had a speculative, it wasn't investment, it was survival. But for most people in
[05:43:41] less dire circumstance the primary motivation for gold is to shield one's savings from uh the depreciation in the purchasing power of the currency. It's important to note as a student of fairly recent
[05:43:55] note as a student of fairly recent history that is to say my lifetime uh that reaction to inflation uh takes place over longer periods of time. uh as a very young man uh I began to notice and become interested in uh inflation
[05:44:10] and become interested in uh inflation literally in high school uh in 1968 uh I began reading uh what are now regarded as Austrian economics or hard money books and I would suggest to you
[05:44:24] that although inflation was a topic on people's minds that the investing public didn't really begin to react to incipient inflation till 1972.
[05:44:36] In other words, there was a hiatus between the point in time when academics and politicians described inflation and the time that people began to react to it. During that 5-year period, as an example, uh a hamburger at McDonald's
[05:44:52] went from 20 cents to a buck. uh uh by the next year with the Arab oil embargo the price of uh gasoline went embargo the price of uh gasoline went from 25 cents to a buck in 1968 1969
[05:45:08] 1970 despite the fact that we were undergoing inflation. Investors expectations of the future were set by their experience in the immediate past and the 1950s and 1960s had been very good times.
[05:45:21] >> Uh people were extremely optimistic. you you may you're probably too young but your older listeners will remember things like the Nifty50 uh which is to say high growth stocks that did extraordinarily well when your
[05:45:36] anticipation of the future is set by your experience in the past and your experience in the past two decades is rosy uh you don't react to negative stimulus as well so it took probably five years for the population to react
[05:45:50] to incipient inflation and I think the same circumstances is happening today. Uh exactly the same circumstance. Uh we have lived through what I believe is the
[05:46:02] most benign economic climate in human history in the period 1982 to 2022. People's expectation the future is set by their experience in the past by the by their experience in the past by the dips. Uh believe government inflation
[05:46:17] numbers like the CPI. uh if you believe in the CPI and you believe that the destruction of your purchasing power is clipping along at 2 and a half or 2.6%. Then current interest rates seem very
[05:46:32] adequate. You know the 10 years yielding 4.4 uh you're getting over 100 basis points in real yield if you happen to believe in real yield if you happen to believe in the CPI. My problem is I don't uh I
[05:46:45] believe that the CPI is better characterized by Mike Maloney as the CP characterized by Mike Maloney as the CP lie. Uh I believe that the deterioration in the purchasing power of the US dollar marked by the basket of goods and
[05:46:58] services that I consume uh suggests that the destruction of my purchasing power is proceeding along at an eight or nine or 10% clip. That presents a very different picture. If you're making 4.4 in a currency
[05:47:13] that's losing value at say 9, you aren't making 4.4, you're losing 4.5. It is when that realization becomes more widespread
[05:47:26] that gold really performs. Uh gold is viewed by many people right now after a 50-year hiatus uh as an investment class or a speculative class. I would argue
[05:47:38] that a thousand years of human history teaches us that gold is a liquidity class or an insurance class and right now people don't feel the need for insurance. My suspicion is unfortunately that that
[05:47:52] feeling will change. Well, I think you make a very clear distinction there and um it echoes what we talked about last time as well that we talked about last time as well that when we say that the dollar is um set to
[05:48:06] underperform, we're not talking about underperforming against other fiat currencies. We're talking about underperformance against hard assets and fiat currencies as a grouping underperforming against hard assets. And
[05:48:22] typically that conversation is uh presented as oh well governments will try to inflate away this debt but we don't need them to try. We have the inflation here. Uh and so I think the next kind of natural question is well
[05:48:38] gold is having a bit of a hangover here after an incredible rally last year. Uh, one thing you've talked about recently that hasn't been caught up in this macro
[05:48:52] that hasn't been caught up in this macro narrative is uranium as another kind of narrative is uranium as another kind of vehicle for sort of expressing a view on vehicle for sort of expressing a view on on physical assets and the kind of value
[05:49:05] storage that that is. Break that down. Uh, what's the conversation with uranium? Well, I need to start by saying in most commodities, the easy money has in most commodities, the easy money has been made. The easy money occurs when a
[05:49:19] commodity goes from being hated uh it doesn't need to go to being loved. It just needs to go to being unhated. When commodity when uranium was at $20 a pound, uh although it took the industry $40 a pound to make it, so the price had
[05:49:32] to go up, it was a hated commodity. The move from $20 a pound to $85 a pound means that the easy money in uranium has been made. It also means, however, I think looking forward that the sure money is in front of us. Why do I say
[05:49:48] that? Well, for several reasons. The most obvious reasons is that the world most obvious reasons is that the world needs more power of all kinds. All kinds. Global power demands, global energy demands are set to double by
[05:50:04] 2050. And we don't have the capacity to produce that much energy. We just don't have that much. Uh energy will be rationed by price. Uh nuclear power is
[05:50:17] extraordinarily reliable base load power and importantly to in today's political discussion it's base load power that doesn't generate carbon. It isn't the same as burning coal and burning oil. Uranium has in five short years gone
[05:50:33] from being a pariah to being a politically correct commodity. Uh which amuses me greatly frankly. The thing that's really changed with uranium though Ilia uh was and is the conflict in the Gulf. It has been 50 years since
[05:50:49] the world cared about energy security. If you dial all the way back to 1973 and the Arab oil embargo, uh that form of energy insecurity
[05:51:02] stimulated, as an example, the French to build what is now the fourth largest nuclear fleet in the world. It stimulated the Japanese to build the third largest nuclear fleet in the world. The impetus for that was energy
[05:51:16] security. Energy security ceased to be a concern for 50 years, but is suddenly a very relevant concern. Uh, uranium is the only fuel on earth that has enough energy density that the Japanese anam as an example could, if
[05:51:32] they had sufficient reactor capacity, store enough uranium to power the entire store enough uranium to power the entire country for 5 years in one uranium storage facility. You can't store that much oil or that much coal or that much
[05:51:46] natural gas. You can't build that big a battery. The only material that can give battery. The only material that can give uh energy short nations, Korea, Japan, China for that matter, uh Taiwan, Singapore, uh energy security is
[05:52:04] Singapore, uh energy security is nuclear, the only one and the big thinkers of the world uh are beginning to come to understand that. And I think ordinary citizens are beginning to understand it too. Uh that's very
[05:52:18] important. We are right now producing less uranium than we consume. Uh and two things are impacting demand. One is that the Japanese are now
[05:52:31] speeding up in earnest the restart of the plants that were closed as a consequence of Fukushima. This isn't demand that's going to occur 10 years from now. This is demand that's going to occur 10 months from now.
[05:52:43] >> A very different circumstance with regards to pricing. Um it also uh is part of a broader trend to
[05:52:55] nuclear plant construction. Even nations that force swore nuclear uh in particular Germany and the United States uh are dis are learning that if they are
[05:53:11] to fund their existing economies never mind data centers that they need mind data centers that they need reliable inexpensive base load power and their voters would prefer that power to be non-carbon generating. I would
[05:53:25] suggest that the biggest unsung beneficiary if there is ever beneficiaries of a war uh would be uranium with regards to the Gulf conflict. People think of oil, they think of gas, they think of nitrogen,
[05:53:38] nitrogenous fertilizer, sulfur, helium uh all things that move through the straits of Hormuse. They don't think about the geopolitical uh attractiveness of a form of energy that gives a country uh energy security.
[05:53:54] And there is no other form of energy that gives a country energy security. >> I think that's a really important insight here. It's it's sort of the next step in the conversation where you say, okay, well, today it's a story about a
[05:54:10] okay, well, today it's a story about a bottleneck. But a year from now, two there will be some kind of resolution of this bottleneck this way or that. But countries will have learned that they
[05:54:22] live in a different world. Now I think you made the point last time we spoke you made the point last time we spoke that the 40 years uh that were there sort of through the vulkar disinflation almost right up to co is a very
[05:54:36] different period than what we're entering now. uh and uh certainly delobalization and inflation and uh thinking about uh kind of the thinking about uh kind of the disillusion of US enforced norms would
[05:54:51] thinking about things like energy security uh in these kinds of terms in expressing a view on uranium uh because I think I mean obviously with gold it's
[05:55:03] easy there's any number of ways you can gain exposure from physical to ETFs to future Same thing for silver. Uh what's the Same thing for silver. Uh what's the vehicle for exposure to uranium in your
[05:55:17] >> There are several uh I I think for most people the lowest risk uh exposure to uranium is to buy something called the spat physical uranium trust. Note here conflicts of interest. I'm the largest shareholder uh of the manager. I'm not
[05:55:33] an employer employee. I'm just a beneficiary. The Sprat physical uh beneficiary. The Sprat physical uh uranium trust is a deposit receipt representing physical ownership uh of uranium at four facilities worldwide.
[05:55:51] uranium is one of those commodities that one is well advised not to try to buy and store at home for fairly obvious reasons. Uh so the the best form of physical ownership is in fact certificated ownership and by far the
[05:56:07] certificated ownership and by far the most liquid.
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[05:59:02] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. You are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to work out. That's
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[05:59:30] course is all about. A five episode crash course all about rolling. So I will see you inside of episode number one.
[05:59:55] >> I was dangerous. >> I'm Jim Schultton. This is from Theory Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome to the Wednesday edition of what it is that we are trying to do. Welcome to the micron edition of what it is that we are
[06:00:07] trying to do. Guys, this is it. This is the moment you've been trading for. Your financial future comes down to tonight's earning. Listen, guys, we have no time to waste. Guys, come back to me. If you are multitasking, come back to me right
[06:00:21] now because I've train I've been trading for a long time. 20 maybe 18, maybe 11 years, maybe a couple of years now. The earnings call that is set to release tonight by Micron. I have never in all of my professional history seen or been
[06:00:38] up against a more impactful potential earnings call than what is coming on down the shoots tonight for Micron. Your future, your children's future, your children's children's future, all comes down to whether or not they beat revenue
[06:00:52] earnings estimates. Now, is all of it made up? Of course. Is all of it actually tracking to reality? Of course not. But everything that you've been there's not much time left if you don't have your bunker materials in your
[06:01:06] driveway being put together right now. Then it is too late. But you're here. much for being a part of the show. If you're watching over on the Tasty Live to YouTube because you can join the conversation and join the discussion and
[06:01:19] who are also watching the program. Man, you can celebrate. Man, I don't even know a day like today. I think everybody's kind of celebrating and commiserating all at the same time. But get in the chat. Pump that ALGO.
[06:01:31] I want to hear about all of them. The ALGO is dying to hear about all them. Drop them in the chat. Laura, bring us into the market. Matt, bring us into the market. Somebody bring us into the market. What's going on out there? EM
[06:01:45] S&P's up four and a quarter. I mean, it certainly doesn't feel like an uned day. Does it feel like an day to you guys? I mean, they were up 50, then they were that's some pretty crazy stuff. Got the risk-free instrument, also known as the
[06:01:58] risk-free instrument, also known as the NASDAQ futures, down 128 on the day. Got the boomers doing some boomer things, up 317. You got the Russell 30,000 up 20. You got bonds up a point. You got notes up about 20 ticks. You got oil down $3.
[06:02:12] Man, look at oil, guys. Come on, man. The oil bulls told me. They told me. I'm not sure who's worse, man. I'm really not. the oil bulls or the gold bugs.
[06:02:24] Like, who is worse when it comes to like, you don't hear a peep from them for years, maybe decades, and then all of a sudden something happens that sends oil up to 100 or it sends gold up to 4,000, which it doesn't even at 4,000
[06:02:38] anymore. Is it at 4,000? It's barely at 4,000. And man, they all just come out of the woodwork. They just come out in droves like I told y'all, man, I've been years. I'm like, I know you've been wrong for about 9 and a half years in a
[06:02:52] man, now we can't hear the end of it. But oil down $3 today. Man, I was assured that we were going to 150. I was assured that 150 was a jumping off point, a springboard to 200. And here we are banking on a six handle here in the
[06:03:08] next uh next couple of minutes. Got oil at 709. Was it actually under 70? Hang on a minute. Was it under? Yeah. Well, look at this. Look at that. Oil it was 6963.
[06:03:22] I mean, look at that, man. That is crazy stuff. I mean, up here. Wait, that's not to look at the uh the continuous contract cuz I know it got up to like one Yeah, it got up to 120, right? Or like 119 or something? Yeah, 11948.
[06:03:37] Right. Right there. Do you guys remember? I mean, this was only Look, it only a couple months ago. You guys remember that? Like I remember like up know, the internet, you couldn't even get on it. Couldn't even get on it
[06:03:50] because that's all you got hit with was oil bull propaganda, right? You got the oil bull propaganda, right? You got the gold bug propaganda. You got the perma deal with pretty much on a daily basis. But it's like I'm kind of used to that.
[06:04:03] I can tune that out. But I wasn't quite ready for the 200 oil uh propaganda to hit the old airwaves there. But yeah, they had us, man. They had us right sudden they got you with that triple inverted head and shoulders pattern. And
[06:04:17] uh boom, oil back to 70. Gas is still $4 a gallon, but that's anyway, oil getting hit. Got the shifties, man. Yeah, they're hanging on to 4,000. They're hanging on for dear life under 4,000 to 140 142 143. I mean,
[06:04:34] there you go. You've got uh let's see. Yeah. Wow, man. They were under 4,000, were they not? I mean, wait, hold on, hold on, hold on. because I know silver have been smacked pretty hard in silver in some stealth accounts earlier today.
[06:04:47] But uh but we'll leave that for a future project another time. But go gold down 143. You all don't want to know about the stealth accounts. Trust me, you thinking, Jim, I'm actually dying to know. Uh be careful what you wish for.
[06:05:00] know. Uh be careful what you wish for. And so gold down 143. Uh yeah. Wow. Look at that, man. Gold was down to Gold was down to 3975. Look at that, man. 3975. Wow, man. That's crazy. Yeah. What are
[06:05:15] my Hunt brothers doing? Hunt brothers not doing too good, man. I mean, I think that kind of goes without saying, but the Hunt brothers in the here and now. The spirit of the Hunt Brothers, I should say. 5751.
[06:05:28] I mean, man, that is like, man, that's some nasty stuff right there. Silver down $5 today. Down 8% today. And that and that's the September contract. like the front month that we've all been trading, which has been July, right? S I
[06:05:41] L N. Uh I mean that's down to 57. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Yeah, that's down to 57 and the September contract is 5751. This guy was down to 55 something earlier. Yeah, it was 5574, man. I mean,
[06:05:57] again, the silver I mean look at the silver like the Facebook. Look at silver up to it was up to 120 something 122 or whatever, right? Oh, uh, let me grab. There you go. I mean, this is like this is the exact same pattern as the oil
[06:06:11] know, man. Maybe the markets are manipulated because you see the same you see the same pattern all the time. Like, over and over again, you know, on the way up, like I know it's different. Like, on the way up, like trust me, bro.
[06:06:24] don't know that you have anything covered cuz oil did it. Silver did it. And now the question is, is the NASDAQ going to do it? Because look at this. All right, guys. Just let's use some imagination. Just
[06:06:38] right? We don't know what's going to happen, right? We know what could potentially happen, right? I mean, bloop bloop bloop. You could get a triple bloop. Like, you could get a triple bloop. And so, look at all that area off
[06:06:53] to the right there. This is all the stuff. This was silver going to 120. This was oil going to 120. Hey, that's kind of interesting, right? Hey, so you got NASDAQ going up to 30 31,000. What's going to happen over here? I don't know.
[06:07:06] And I don't even know if the bloops can help us. I'm not even sure if the bloops loaf of bread there on the screen. Look at that. That's kind of fun. So anyway, happen next. I wish I knew because if I did know, I wouldn't be here with y'all.
[06:07:19] I would be with iPod touch on some remote location somewhere trading that book about it. You guys can buy the book. You can read about it seven years But uh but yeah, that's just a standard standard protocol, I think. So, yeah,
[06:07:34] NASDAQ uh down, the rest of the market looking okay. You got volatility on a looking okay. You got volatility on a day like today. Uh volatility futures pretty crazy. And then you got the VIX down. The VIX is actually down today.
[06:07:48] volatility index should be down today, but maybe uh maybe it should be. I don't Let's go ahead and uh man, I see you guys in the chat. Look at you guys doing work, man. guys putting in work, man. Look at you guys, man. I see you guys so
[06:08:03] much. Grumpy Mike. Grumpy Mike is here, man. Grumpy Mike in the house. What's going on? Point B is here. Rats is here. Yeah, Yodara is here. E Media is here. Argent Purr is here, man. I appreciate you guys, man. I see uh Yeah, BDH is
[06:08:17] here. Uh that's pretty fun. And so I see Ryan LP is here saying, "Release the to do that. Uh but if you want to know more about them though, you can check out my Twitter. I got a fun little trading lab project that's related to
[06:08:30] sign up for that. It's completely free. At least the first couple emails are for some products and stuff later on down the road. But for right now, it's uh, but give that guy a look. It's fun. It's been fun. A lot of you guys have
[06:08:43] signed up. It's been a lot of fun. And, uh, uh, yeah. So, okay. So, I'll get to at what's going on here in the market. Uh, I mean, obviously, MNQ, I mean, this is, you know, this is Bonefish worthy, I would say. Uh, I mean, Bonefish on a
[06:08:57] Wednesday. Are they open on a Wednesday? I mean, over there because they kind of have to from a funds standpoint. And so, I'll nobody's there. There's plenty of seating, but in terms of are there
[06:09:10] actually employees there? Is there actually staff there to actually make the meal, serve the meal, etc. And so, we might be going to Bonefish tonight. I don't think Autumn's ready for that. I really, really don't. Uh, she's
[06:09:22] typically not ready for Bonefish. uh when I recommend Bonefish, it pretty quickly gets uh discarded uh upon uh receipt there usually, but uh we may uh down a couple hundred points. And so now the question becomes, what are we
[06:09:36] tight for a minute. I mean, we're at 23 Thursday contest is not going to write itself. The Friday contest is not going to write itself. And so, let's let the MQ position carry us into tomorrow.
[06:09:49] Let's let the MQ position carry us into Friday. and uh kind of let that be that. And so uh so yeah, so MNQ uh we sit tight and then yeah, MEES um we took off the static short yesterday and so that was a uh a short call that we had on
[06:10:04] lonely little strangle. Man, it feels so incomplete like to look at me and not have the short call cuz we had that guy on for I mean I want to say it was two was a pretty lengthy project. It's not like the Starbucks deal, but it still
[06:10:18] little oomph to it. And so now looking at the MES, it's kind of like I mean it's kind of like going in and training buys and not training tries, you know? training quads and not training hams. Like you always feel like all right, I
[06:10:33] Like I feel like I forgot something. Like you're leaving the gym when you're think I kind of forgot something. And so when I'm looking at this MEF uh MEES feel like we forgot something and it's our short call from uh from yesterday.
[06:10:48] not going to sell them in the hole here. And so, uh, we'll sit tight on, uh, on MES, but MQ. Yeah, we do nothing. And then you got Apple, you got Amazon. I Micron, uh, trade. I got you guys, man. Don't worry about it. I 100% got you
[06:11:02] new to the show, please, please, please, please, please, you need to be fading my good about an earnings trade in quite fading this guy cuz check out check out FedEx. We'll get to FedEx here in a
[06:11:17] be getting a little hot streak started here for earnings. So, be careful. But if history is any guide, the fade Dr. J gym earning strategy, it's safer than a USB with NASDAQ like returns. That's the best way that I can describe it to you.
[06:11:31] This is no guarantee. Nobody knows what's going to happen. I'm just giving you data. I'm just giving you data. Right? It's all there. It's all there in the archives. It's all there. You can watch it for yourself. safer than a USD
[06:11:45] perfect that's a perfect description for the fade Dr. Jim uh strategy. And so Apple uh we have a short put spread. Um you know, we'll we'll sit tight. Uh 23 risk, so it doesn't really matter. And then uh Amazon short put spread that's a
[06:12:01] little further in the money. Again, also defined risk. So we we sit tight, we do nothing. And we'll come back to that guy as well. Look at Fly. Let's talk about Bfly really quick. Man, look at this thing. We are up 30 cents on this guy.
[06:12:15] And uh wow, that's just the greatest it's the greatest ticker symbol I've ever seen because if you look at like uh hang on a second. Oh, you know what? So I I wanted to open up FedEx. So we've got Bfly, right? So I
[06:12:28] like it will show you the strategy that you have like a butterfly and then like if I open up GDX, I think that's like a strangle, right? Like you got all that. remember how they labeled it. I was kind of hoping they gave me the abbreviation.
[06:12:43] Like that would be amazing if they put Bfly right there because then we would have Bfly the stock and Bfly the strategy, right? And I can't think of a better Paris trade on the board. You've got Bfly straight stock exposure and
[06:12:57] you've got Bfly strategy. It could be bullish, it could be bearish, it could obviously for FedEx, it uh it worked out for us. But man, Beef Fly, that's going to be between Beef Fly and uh and Snapchat, I think we have our long-term
[06:13:10] financial objectives covered for the most part. And uh so we'll loop back years, but I think we're good. I think we're pretty much good. And uh yeah, all the other stuff later on, but I want to talk about FedEx here a little bit
[06:13:24] into the show and I haven't even started the victory lap yet. Like we haven't even left the batteries box, right? We've got a long way to go to round very very very slow drop because I have a feeling we're going to light some
[06:13:37] stacks of cash on fire with Micron. And so for I'm not sure it has to be plural. Usually we we we get enough work done with the singular stack of cash that gets uh set ablaze. But with uh with
[06:13:51] hundred bucks and so I mean Autumn doesn't know it, but we are 100% going her get whatever she wants. Like normally I got to keep her under wraps, pretty tight cuz otherwise, you know, she just throws the budget out the
[06:14:06] getting bottles of wine, we're getting this, that, the other thing. We're like, "All right, listen. You can have the banana natty, but it's got to be in the can, right? We can't do the banana natty on tap stuff. It's too expensive.
[06:14:18] It's just too expensive." And so, uh, it looks like we are going to be going to, uh, to Bonefish tonight, though. And so FedEx, um, we played a downside butterfly. And you know what's funny? We didn't even really we didn't even really
[06:14:30] nail the move. So, in perfect doctor's gym fashion, we kind of just barely like scraped into this position from a P&L standpoint. And we didn't even really do we didn't even really do very much uh positive when it comes to this. And so,
[06:14:43] positive when it comes to this. And so, uh with FedEx, um where was FedEx this right about now. Uh wow, look at that. We actually had them a lot lower this morning. Hold on. Let me grab a uh I want to grab an intraday chart.
[06:14:56] settings. We don't need like a one minute or a two-minute guy. I just need like a fiveminute guy. Um, let's see here. Let's go ahead and at that. They opened them right on the
[06:15:10] Wow, they actually rallied him into the opening bell. Wow. Look at that. Okay, so that's actually so that daily chart is a little bit uh disingenuous maybe we couldn't get out of the position here. The options weren't open yet. the
[06:15:25] options weren't open until 9:30. And so because of that, that's not a true representation of what we could have done. What we could have done is basically where it is right now. I mean, it opened at 94. It opened at 314. It's
[06:15:37] at 312. And so basically, this is, you know, this is the spot that that that we right now, you can see, I mean, we're $8 in the money on the long put, which is have a ton of theta that's built up in the position now. But again, it's
[06:15:50] Wednesday, we're going into Friday. You know, I've never seen a more important released tonight coming from Micron. So, I don't know that I necessarily want to not take this off. Again, given the fact that we're going to Bonefish, given the
[06:16:04] the kids, man. We might even bring the kids to Bonefish, right? Nothing says I don't really want to enjoy this meal. children to dinner with me. Right now,
[06:16:16] I'm a family man. I love my kids, right? Love them to death without question. But truth. Nothing says, "All right, I'm gonna have to do conflict resolution for two straight hours. I'm not even going to be able to enjoy this petite fillet,
[06:16:29] enjoy the bread and the olive oil and the other things." And so, it's like, man, banana natty on tap or in the can. If the kids are coming, none of it's think we're uh I think we're in a pretty good spot here. So, let's go ahead and
[06:16:42] take this guy off and uh because I do want to leave a little bit of time for Micron uh because I got one for you guys, man. Man, I feel so good about Oh man, it's going to be great. All right, so FedEx, we got out of 792. So
[06:16:55] earnings and uh man, I see you guys in the chat putting in work, man. Look at you guys, man. I see. Look at Brian Dowy is here, man. Look at you guys. I app is appreciate you guys so much. All right, let's go ahead. Let's go to Micron. Here
[06:17:10] it is. So Micron down $34, guys. I don't think we need to overthink this. Oh, not GDX. Micron. Don't overthink this, guys. You got an IV rank of 90. Right? You've got super
[06:17:22] high implied volatility. You've got Micron over $1,000. I mean, Micron is the way forward, right? I still can't tell you what they do, but they are the do with memory. So, maybe they sell like blueberries and stuff. I'm not sure, but
[06:17:36] blueberries and stuff. I'm not sure, but Micron is the way forward, right? Chips, computers, AI, AI agents, right? AI bots, AI slop. Like, that's what's happening. That is not only the future. That is the present. That is now. So,
[06:17:49] I'm not talking about 2029. I'm talking about now. I'm not talking about 2031. Micron is the answer to whatever your question might be. And so, when it comes to playing the stock, it's got to be the upside, guys. It 100% has to be the
[06:18:02] upside. Not to mention, guys, look, all the stars are aligning for us right now. we're going to do a butterfly. Of course. June 26, guys. You know what June 26th is? There's Autumn's birthday. June 26th is Autumn's birthday. my
[06:18:18] out what I'm going to get her. Uh I'm running out of time. So, so if you don't have your bunker materials, man, you're in real trouble. I think I'm kind of in trouble going into Friday because I'm thinking about like Amazon delivery
[06:18:31] times. It's like, all right, like yeah, we have Prime, of course, blah blah blah through for you, man. Like sometimes like they'll kind of lull you to sleep be there in 4 hours." And then you get three emails like, "Yeah, your guy is
[06:18:43] still, you know, 27 stops away. Now he's 31 stops away." It's like, man, my man's right? And so, I'm going to need to go ahead and get my act together uh forth get her something. I might just hand her cash, actually. I might just give her a
[06:18:58] card and just hand her some cash. And I mean, 17 years of marriage, I think point. But uh but let's go in here. I'm going to do a butterfly. I'm going to again, you know, the wider the butterfly, the better. So, it's going to
[06:19:11] cost you some more. I want to keep this guy to around $5. Uh but it'll be fun. tomorrow, Friday's content not going to make itself. I will say, so be on the lookout. This is a little bit tricky because so my
[06:19:24] mouth is actually I'm recovering relatively well, but today's been kind appointment earlier this morning, but that was not a dental thing. That was the skinny this morning. But today's been a little bit rough. And so I do
[06:19:36] bit of a down path. So, if I do disappear tomorrow or Friday, that's a day off and kind of give the mouth give the mouth the rest of there. Uh, I be a week or two, and it's only been a week. And so, we we've powered through,
[06:19:51] I think, reasonably well. But, uh, but let me go ahead and do uh I'm kind of thinking, let's try a 1080, 1130, 1180.
[06:20:04] It's probably going to be like eight or nine bucks. 485. 4.85. Guys, guys, guys, what are we doing? What are we doing, guys? Look at that. $471 for a $50 wide butterfly in Micron,
[06:20:19] right? This isn't Walmart. This isn't McDonald's, right? This isn't Proctor and Gamble. This is Micron, right? This is the way forward. This is the answer. $5 on the butterfly. I mean, I love it. I've never loved anything
[06:20:33] more than I love this trade. And so bullish micron, if you can't beat him, you join them. Somebody get me my threeminute sizzle reel. Sizzle reel just like Tom Cruz. Uh I've seen that thing at least I don't know 37 times in
[06:20:47] sizzle reel that our boy is putting out there to like to pump his new movie uh called Digger or whatever? Which I mean I love Tom Cruz. He's great. I'll go see it for sure. But it's like, man, I mean, nobody nobody can pump their next movie
[06:21:01] their previous movies quite like Tom Cruz. I don't know that it's ever been done before. Like, I'm not sure it's ever been done before in the history of, you know, pumping uh future movies, but uh it's a pretty impressive marketing
[06:21:13] how it works out for him. But let's go. Let's play this guy. 456. I mean, come Let's play this guy. 456. I mean, come on, man. Like, I don't really know. Like, I'm trying to figure out why it's so low. That's really crazy.
[06:21:26] 470. Okay, the mid price is bouncing around a good bit here. Wow, we got filled at 472. Man, that is really, really crazy. And so, uh, uh, all right, so we're in Micron to the upside. There you go. There's the Micron
[06:21:41] play that you guys have been waiting for. got you covered. And so, there you guys go, man. All right, let's go ahead and uh, let's see where you guys are at. Oh man, let's surprise and delight a couple
[06:21:55] people at the end of the chat. Man, I'll see Brian Dowy says, "I'll sell my mic my micron today, [laughter] now that I just heard that, as you should, my friend." Uh, you 100% should. And so, uh, [laughter]
[06:22:09] strategy. I'd go with that. Yep. That's what I think I'm going to do, man. I something up here in the next couple of days, but just in case we can't, I'll just give her a crisp 20, man. or maybe a couple crisp tens because I don't feel
[06:22:21] like it's, you know, there's a lot more work that went into it on my end. I'm what I'm saying, right? I might even get her like a couple tens with like, you know, like those really really awesome like serial numbers where it has like
[06:22:34] kind, but like four of a kind or five of a kind just in case she finds herself in think she's ever played that game before, but just in case. You don't know move and things change but uh but oh I see Danish Dynamite is
[06:22:49] here. Danish Dynamite says Dr. Jim I'm heading on a fiveweek European vacation. course Denmark. There you go. In the spirit I placed an S Soom. Oh, Assam Tausnov. You mean Abom Naznoff? Abom Naznov
[06:23:03] recommended strangle in the Euro for August. There you go. Uh 1115 and then uh 116. Nice. I don't trade the euro too often. Um and so we did one before. I think that was an Ash Finn uh special special that we did here on the show.
[06:23:17] wasn't um it's not something I trade too regularly. chat, man. Nice work out of you guys, man. Let me go back to the beginning. Uh on there, Orden? Or Denu says, "Hello, Dr. Jim.
[06:23:33] The DNS is is hard. It is hard. I have a gold 415 July 31st short put. I mold it positions so I don't end up chasing my tail. Any advice? Thanks. You are the greatest, man. I appreciate you. Uh yeah, that's a tough trade right now. Uh
[06:23:48] yeah, the 415, so you're 50 points obviously getting worse. I mean, if you look at, you know, kind of where gold look at, you know, kind of where gold has been lately. Um
[06:24:00] I mean, that's quite a move, man. Like in just the last uh you know, the last couple of months really, you go from 460 to basically 360. I mean, that's a 25% move, right? Is uh that's a little over that's like a 21 or 22% move. That's a
[06:24:15] couple of things to think about. So, number one, you said you rolled it a means I'm assuming you probably collected maybe $10 to $15 on this something like that. So, be aware of where your break even point is. So, your
[06:24:29] guessing, of course, but it's probably around 400, maybe slightly over 400. So, that's kind of the number that, you know, I would like to that I would uh I would be kind of mindful of in terms of, you know, like where I need the
[06:24:42] stock to come back to to kind of get me back above water. The next thing to keep in mind is the short put is a great strategy. It's a terrific strategy across the board. It does make more sense in terms of like a
[06:24:55] do nothing like to the death like put in the ground with me. like it makes a lot more sense to do that with the equities more so than something like the metals because the equities have positive drift and the equities have the positive risk
[06:25:07] premium. The other asset classes kind of had that but not in the same way that the equities have that. And so I still think the do nothing strategy is the when you're with something like gold or you're with something like silver or
[06:25:20] bonds or whatever like fixed income and it's like all right I want to lean into the DNS but uh you know it's I don't have that positive risk premium to we've got you know we've got wars with navy blue ties like nobody knows what to
[06:25:35] be working against us as well. So that's the first thing I'll say. The second thing that I'll say, I would just not be so married to the position that you're not willing to take an off-ramp when it comes your way. Hast
[06:25:49] in point, you've taken a ton of heat. My hats off to you for staying in the enough on entry, right? And so a $50 move in gold, I mean, that's a $5,000. That's obviously a $5,000 loss. And then you take into account the credit you
[06:26:02] you're down, let's say, $4,000 on the position. If it comes back and it retraces and it gives you back $1,500, $2,000, in my opinion, that is a logical time to say, "All right, look, I'm done with
[06:26:15] Let me take my exit ramp. I fought the good fight. Let me move on to something else." If you really want to dig your heels into the ground and say, "Listen, very end." I don't think it's the worst strategy ever. Now, you could add calls.
[06:26:28] other things you could do to bring premium in uh and potentially improve the break even point on that side. But remember, if you bring in like a call on you're adding upside risk, which you don't. And you might be thinking, Jim,
[06:26:42] worried about downside risk, of course. But markets moving, things change. And so all of a sudden, we get, you know, a surprise QE print, right? We get emergency, you know, zer again, and gold's going to shoot up 20, $25 in a
[06:26:55] day, right? And so I kind of think be mindful of the break even point. I also ramp at this point. I don't think you have to puke it out at the bottom right you're not small enough, that's when it's puke city, man. If you're not small
[06:27:08] buying lows and we're, you know, we're selling tops and Oh, wait. No, that's we're selling lows. That's what I meant to say. And uh and yeah, so if you're feel like you need to do anything right now. But again, if you get, you know,
[06:27:21] 10, 15, $20 coming back in your direction, that might be the time to do it. That's how I would think about that. BBB Fine is here. Hello, Dr. Jim. You need to take over the network, man. Be careful what you wish for, man. Be very
[06:27:34] careful what you wish for because you guys, you never know, man. Could be a lot more Dr. Jim. You never know. And be very careful, right? Because it may sound good in theory. It probably doesn't even sound good in theory. I can
[06:27:46] assure you it's going to be far far far worse for all parties involved in practice and so I'd be very very careful very careful. Uh point B is in the house painting Dr. J. I'm here for my daily dose of theta therapy. Good afternoon.
[06:27:58] afternoon to you too my friend. Thank you for being here. Sebastian is here. What's up there Sebastian? I appreciate you. Point B is here. Doc J Hood poor man's covered call man. Let's go. Long the January 21 uh 2855 call. I'm short
[06:28:15] in October 16 26 October of this year 75. I rolled into it and it's been a losing trade. How would you manage this? Uh well, I don't know what you uh like what your you said you rolled into it. I don't know exactly. Oh hoof. I don't
[06:28:29] know exactly what that means that you rolled into it. Um got Yeah, you're way out there, man. Wow. Yeah, you're way out there, man. Wow. You've got the January 21 55.
[06:28:44] You've got the January 21 55. Um, yeah. So, that's Wow, that's really that's selling for Wow. That's so that's so far out there. This is so This is like the first time I've looked at a
[06:28:56] like a the long leg of a poor man's cover call that's this far into the future. It's very rare that I would look at a poor man's cover call that's this far out into the future. I mean, it's really kind of crazy that
[06:29:08] really kind of crazy that I'm looking at this 55 call and it's actually selling for more than the actual intrinsic value of the strike itself. Like if I go in and buy Hood, like if I just go buy like uh Oh,
[06:29:23] makes sense. That makes sense. For some reason, I was thinking Hood was selling for 55 and I'm like, "Wait a minute. The 55 strike is selling for more than the right. Okay, never mind. So, scratch everything I was saying there and the
[06:29:36] good road. So, we're not going to go any further down that road. But, uh, but yeah, I mean, you've got a super long call and then you've got a 75 Yeah, you've got a 75 um short call that's part of the strategy and it's now
[06:29:52] it's now really deep in the money. I mean, I'd have to kind of know how you got to this position and like what your basis is. I mean, generally speaking, if it's in the money, that's a good scenario for you. And it's obviously not
[06:30:06] want to back up a little bit. If I'm in a poor man's cover call and the short call goes in the money, that's a positive scenario for me. I generally speaking want to try to avoid situations where I do something crazy. I kind of
[06:30:19] roll into this might be the situation you find yourself in now, where it's in a position where now if it goes in the money, I'm actually losing money. it's actually a bad outcome for me. That can be a really really tricky spot to
[06:30:31] kind of manage your way out of. So, what I would do there at point B, email me, shoot me an email, give me more details around kind of like the like the debits And that can give you more pinpoint, you know, kind of ideas to think about in
[06:30:44] terms of kind of what comes next. But generally speaking, this is why with I don't like to get too creative with the strategy. I'd much rather just kind of, you know, leave it be and kind of let it do what it's intended to do,
[06:30:56] into the money, that's a good outcome. It sounds like maybe you're in a different scenario. So, shoot me an email. Uh, I'm julastylive.com and uh and I can help you a little further on that guy. Uh, let's see.
[06:31:08] for downside with the broken wing butterfly." There you go, my friend. You are good. You are 100% good. Now, when you say to the downside with a broken calls or with the puts? Because a broken wing butterfly is like an omniirectional
[06:31:22] spread. It's basically the defined risk version of a ratio spread. And so I ask that because I mean if you've got the calls and you have a credit if it you have a put uh a broker butterfly where you have a credit if it falls. You
[06:31:38] actually make more money if it rallies. And so um I'm not even sure I don't Uh I do them from time to time, but I don't do them that often. And so I'm not even sure like what the typical like lexicon is for that in terms of you know
[06:31:52] be a downside butterfly I suppose because that's where you can potentially make the most money. Uh but I could be I could be wrong about that. Uh let's see Dr. Jim for all the advice. Pump the algo man. Do it. Uh it's my pleasure my
[06:32:07] friend. Uh yes reach out anytime. And uh Ash if you're watching today Shane is looking for he's looking for a group so you guys should sync up. And Ash typically watches most days and so you guys should sync up and uh I told him to
[06:32:20] find you and so hopefully he can uh he can do that. And so Grumpy Mike, Dr. Jim last week I'm still recovering and it's kind of up and down. Some days are We're here and we're doing You think I was going to miss Micron earnings for
[06:32:33] like the most important earnings date like in the history of earnings dates? then I can assure you that my mouth will be hurting tomorrow and I will certainly be MIA. But I had to be here for this because we had to get the trade on. Sam
[06:32:48] Sam? Doc, three red days in a row. Is that even allowed anymore? I don't know that it is. So, we got to see how we close here. Uh, well, I guess ever since fully committed to the fade doc strategy. It most certainly has. I mean,
[06:33:02] once I closed out of my short static uh delta position with that deep in the the market's like, we can go down even lower. Like, we can test, you know, last week's lows. we can test, you know, last month's lows, like whatever. Like, it's
[06:33:16] basically it's open season now. And so, uh, yeah, that's too funny, man. It's just too funny. Uh, let's see. Imagine actually getting close to your strike not allow that to happen. I know. I know. Uh, we still had a long ways to go
[06:33:29] to get to my strike. Uh, the strike of my call though. A very long way to go. EMD, hey, Dr. Jim, how do you plan a long position in platinum and gold? Hm. time. Will you trade a platinum a platinum post and a gold crown? A gold
[06:33:43] I already have a gold crown in my mouth. I've had it for like 20 years and it's done pretty well. Uh, you know, when it comes to gold, I'm not [clears throat] comes to gold, I'm not [clears throat] trading platinum, but obviously GL GLD
[06:33:56] GLD is going to be, you know, the go-to here. I mean, the Ivy rank is 52, so you from a short premium standpoint. I mean, there's a million things that you can do here with, uh, you know, with GLD. So, uh, I mean, GLD would be the go-to move
[06:34:08] mean, you could do something naked if something to find risk if you have a smaller account. Uh, if you want to you know, the micro future. MGC is not a
[06:34:20] around 150 points a day. I mean, that's a pretty sizable move, but that's not course, and, you know, you've seen it happen on the charts, but usually most days are going to be 30, 40, 50, 60 points for the most part. And so I mean
[06:34:34] even if you've only got I mean 30 35 40 grand I mean I think you could trade an MGC contract and uh I think you'd be okay. And by okay I mean uh you probably won't be sleeping a ton but uh you might be able to grab a couple winks here and
[06:34:46] What's going on there E Media? Hey Dr. Jim, how do you plan a Oh, this was E Uh Brian Racketin is here. What's up there Brian Racketin? Point B. I enjoyed your recent show on rolling with uh with Jer Mike. [laughter] That's pretty good.
[06:35:00] steal that. That's actually really really good. Thank you my friend. I short put and this gets back to your situation or you right with a short put possibility. And so if you are bullish on gold, if you do think like you know
[06:35:16] you want to be bullish on gold maybe as a you know as like a complement to the rest of your long equity portfolio or maybe your short equity portfolio like you still can tap into that forever roll type of uh philosophy as you've already
[06:35:30] couple of times and bringing in credits. So, um anyway, uh yeah, I think it's an interesting thing. It was kind of more more suited for the um uh for equities of course, but uh but it can it can apply to pretty much anything. [gasps]
[06:35:45] Uh point B, I got I've got a chronic case of overrolling and I need a second opinion. Yeah, it's so common, man. Like I I mean I do this I do the same thing. like, you know, the market's moving really crazily. We all kind of feel
[06:35:57] to do something. I got to move around. I got to zigg. I got to zag. I got to do waggle. Like there's something to be done. A lot of the time, man, I think doing nothing is the move. Like a lot of the time it's like you've already got it
[06:36:11] made. The Betty Crocker recipes right in front of you, man. Just follow it step by step, right? Step one, do nothing. Step two, do nothing. Step three, remember steps one and two. like it's pretty straightforward, right? And so, I
[06:36:25] a, you know, kind of simplify things down, but, you know, there's definitely a u, you know, a time and a place for lots of adjustments. Uh, but I think, you know, tapping into the DNS is is is a solid move. And again, you just have
[06:36:38] and make sure that everything is, you know, you've dotted all your eyes and crossed all your tees and, you know, those kinds of things. And so, uh, but What's going on there, Ranch? Rats Media is in the house. What's up there? That's
[06:36:52] media. Silver must be dumping. I got assigned. Uh yes, it is uh dumping. What assigned. Uh yes, it is uh dumping. What is silver doing now? Uh yeah, it's actually I mean it's I mean it's down a little bit. Uh 5712 and so
[06:37:04] the the end contract is probably 5660 or 70 or something. And so that is uh man that is some pretty wild stuff. Uh Sam Doctor, shifties and brothers are the Dixie is doing whatever the Dixie does when nobody's paying attention. You
[06:37:18] haven't traded the Dixie the dollar index. We're doing Dixie now. index. We're doing Dixie now. Is it Is it forward slash Dixie? Man, I so long. I don't even know how to pull up the quote the right way. Y'all saw my
[06:37:32] up the quote the right way. Y'all saw my my Dropbox uh files. Uh let's see. DXY uh for Yeah, I don't even know. I mean, I don't even know what the DXE quote is. I don't even know what the DXE quote is. And so, is it Wait, hold on. Is it Is it
[06:37:47] It's not DX, is it? Is it DMX? Like Rough Rider and stuff? No, that's not it. I'm not even sure that is DMX, but uh feels like it should be DMX. And so, uh anyway, uh but yeah, the dollar. Uh yeah, I don't even know.
[06:38:02] I haven't looked at the dollar in in quite some time. That's how that's how little of a macro, bro, that I truly am. Like, that's how little of a macro like don't even know how to pull up a dollar quote. I know what the Dixie is,
[06:38:15] obviously the dollar index, but uh I couldn't I couldn't pull up a quote if I had to obviously. And so Rant says the biggest call in a bigger one. I mean, look at the NASDAQ right now. Down 380 now. It's down 380
[06:38:29] now, man. I mean, we're almost like 4% off of all time. The Russell's even red, guys. Man, call your senator. Call your congressman. You got to call somebody. Call somebody. Write letters. Like, show up. like cold walk these places, man.
[06:38:44] You got to let them know that you're not happy with this, that you are not happy with this at all. Udar is in the house. Hello, Dr. Jim. For to for today's Micron trade, could you consider looking at a put or call broken heart butterfly?
[06:38:57] Uh, buy an out- of-the money call spread and sell a further wider wider out- trade for credit. That's very interesting. Uh, since I already did the expected move butterfly to the upside, we'll have to revisit this for maybe
[06:39:10] another earning. So, remind me of this there. or you'd be happy to do this and did Micron, I'm not going to do a second trade in Micron cuz that just sounds like you're asking for a whole lot of trouble to kind of come your way. Uh but
[06:39:23] uh but yeah, thank you there Udar. Just remind me and we can uh we can do that pizza left in the freezer. That's not good. Uh if you're talking about like bunker type stuff, that's not good at all. And so uh yeah, Sam, come to think
[06:39:36] us a proper bloop analysis on the dollar because I can't. I just tried and I can't, right? Whether it's proper or improper, I can't even pull it up. And original bloop all along. Anyway, it's all made up until the chart says
[06:39:49] chart's all made up, that's for sure. But as far as as far as the the the Dixie is concerned or DMX or whatever. Uh yeah, somebody tell me what is the dollar ticker? I need to know. Can somebody put it in the chat, please?
[06:40:02] Um I'll scroll down to the bottom really quick. Uh dollar sign DXY. Really? Ah, so close. Uh, thank you. There I see Mr. Pillows and uh Ryan LP.
[06:40:15] No, that's not it. I'm not getting it. I'm not getting it. I thought that was you guys took me down, man. You guys 100% took me down. Look at you guys, man. Uh, can somebody give me a dollar quote? A dollar ticker. Somebody in the
[06:40:28] chat really quick. We have like a minute left in the show. Dollar sign Dixie. Am I I mean, am I crazy? I don't have the mono vision. got actual contacts in dollar sign DXY. Not found at all. Can you guys see this box right here? Not
[06:40:44] Oh. Oh, they're going to make me do that. What? Look at that. Okay. Okay. All right, man. Look at you guys, man. I made you guys pump the algo. That's what
[06:40:56] that was all about, man. The ALGO is going to be so confused now. The ALGO is And then they're going to watch it and be like, "This is the same as it's But yeah. Okay, there you go. Look at the dollar. Okay, up to 102. I don't
[06:41:09] mean that I'm going to be able to buy some more stuff? I mean, probably not, not going to eat your boy alive and eat all you guys alive? Probably not. But I guess we're breaking out. Is that what that is? So, I guess we're going to get
[06:41:24] like a kind of like a blah bloop. Kind of like a one of those jobs. I mean, is that what we're going for? Again, this is probably a little bit too advanced. and trying to learn about different ways to analyze charts, I would go back to
[06:41:37] kind of the beginning phases. This is probably a few steps down the road. Uh black loop uh right there when it comes to the bounce off of these uh these recent highs. So, but yeah, the uh the Dixie. Wow. I learned how to pull up the
[06:41:50] perfect way to end the show because I'm totally out of ch out of time. And so, I you guys so very much. If I can ever help you guys in any way, please shoot Schultz@tastylive.com or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I would
[06:42:04] well. But stay tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with trading the them small, trade them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.
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[06:45:07] Wednesday. It's a really red day. I'm digging it. uh when the day started uh we had a rally and uh it stopped and we are down not
[06:45:21] massively and you know listen RTY is green YM is green uh it's not all you know it's not like both bears on the planet are celebrating right now it's it's uh but it's uh it's working out pretty good over here in Palo Alto um
[06:45:37] pretty good over here in Palo Alto um and I hope some of you are partaking Uh the good news is that the stock market is fantastically overvalued. So don't feel you're too late because we're like, you know, only hours into this. Uh
[06:45:52] couple of big events coming, I guess, in the next what would it be 15 16 hours. Uh Micron will be announcing after the close today and tomorrow morning. Uh I
[06:46:04] think it's the PCE that's coming out, the offsighted Fed's favorite inflation the offsighted Fed's favorite inflation indicator. So, uh, let's go into the wonderful world of charting and we can talk about this, uh, pretty glorious day
[06:46:18] saw years and years ago there was a Honda commercial Garrison Keeler narrated and they had this they disassembled an entire Honda Accord into
[06:46:30] Goldberg contraption out of it. And the the closing line was, "Isn't it nice when things just work?" And that's how I feel today. Everything's just working out really well. Um, assets across the board
[06:46:45] really well. Um, assets across the board are getting hit. Bitcoin is working out great. Um, I see the president has been ceaselessly tweeting out about how crude oil is dropping, which I don't know. I mean, to me, it's like if you worked in
[06:46:58] an office building in Austin and I shut your power down and it was sweltering inside. I turned the power back on and roamed the hallways saying Tim Knight knows how to provide coolness, doesn't he? You would agree it would feel
[06:47:13] better, but you know, don't thank me. Um, but I wouldn't do that to you. I' I've been to Austin. I know what it's like down there. Um, but the ES has been We got three red bars in a row and it's a mess. There's no real
[06:47:31] pattern here to speak of at all. Um, this is a totally not organic market. It has not been organic since certainly 2008. Um, before then it was pretty allnatural, but yeah, since since the
[06:47:47] late Allen Greenspan got involved, uh, it has been uh, nothing of the sort. So, it has been uh, nothing of the sort. So, it's kind of a mess. Um, all the same, um, I think we've broken the uptrend and, uh, you know, between now and
[06:48:02] October could be awfully interesting and I'm definitely positioned for for the downside. Um, the diamonds, I came into the day short this. I got stopped out, the day short this. I got stopped out, took a loss. It is off of its highs.
[06:48:16] It's still probably not a bad short. We had not hit lifetime highs on this. know, there's certain things to recommend as a short. I'm I'm not going recommend as a short. I'm I'm not going to touch. In fact, as as delighted as I
[06:48:28] am about today's red, uh I'm not that heavily positioned. I'm about 120% committed. Um and, you know, fullon Bitcoin short, but uh not, you know, wildeyed or anything like that. And you know, one of the
[06:48:43] reasons is because my biggest position was the diamonds and I just got boked out of it. Um but still [clears throat] not a bad looking chart. I wouldn't be surprised if this took a tumble tomorrow. Um, but I probably won't
[06:48:55] monkey with it anymore. Uh, the small caps IWM. Uh, as I said, uh, small caps are still green, although just barely. This is up 0.04% at the moment. You could call that a shooting star
[06:49:09] today. Not a particularly good one, but it's all right. Uh, lifetime highs on an intraday basis. And like I say, I doubt there's any bears out there besides me, but uh if there are, um the the market's very richly valued. I still think
[06:49:24] there in spite of the demolition we've seen in some sectors thus far. Uh the big news yesterday was South Korea, and I was sort of bracing myself today for a
[06:49:36] big counterturn rally across the board. Um, you know, this market being what it is, I figured today would be a pretty big update to undo most of the damage from yesterday didn't happen. Today's a very good day. In a lot of ways, it's
[06:49:50] [clears throat] is up almost a tenth of a single percentage point. Um, so pretty lame counterturn rally. It basically opened at its high and it's trading now as as low. Um
[06:50:06] my dumb guess and my my micron position is about this big. Uh they'll use that for the screenshot. I just know it on the YouTube. Um the micron position small. My dumb guess is that it'll fall. Just a dumb guess. If it does, I expect
[06:50:21] we'll see things like this continue to um to weaken. Uh EFA, which I did hold my short on and uh is now my biggest position, uh continues to sink. We're down about another half percent on this here. Again, a pig of a pattern. Just
[06:50:36] really absolutely inscrutable, but what can you do? Um, I'll still take but what can you do? Um, I'll still take it. Uh, FXI China, as I've mentioned time and again, China's bull market ended almost 20 years ago. And that's a
[06:50:52] nominal terms. I mean, I've talked about normalized terms, in which case the US bull market ended 25 years ago. But even in nominal constantly degraded fiat in nominal constantly degraded fiat terms, uh China has been getting uh in
[06:51:08] this sloppy bare market for for almost 20 years. And today ain't helping uh for weeks now after the uh absolutely pointless uh summit. Uh it's been falling day after day after day after day after day. And I wish I had a
[06:51:22] know, it's a messy chart. There's individual Chinese stocks like PDD and WRD that I think are terrific shorts and have been. I think will continue to be, but I'm not I don't have any Chinese positions right now. It's like a bad
[06:51:37] positions right now. It's like a bad Kama Sutra. Um, gold GC. Uh, this is down again as God [clears throat] intended. We're down [clears throat] intended. We're down below $4,000 now. Uh, every day I've
[06:51:50] mentioned the right triangle pattern and this is potent stuff. Uh, this could this is potent stuff. Uh, this could easily get down to $3,500 an ounce. Um, easily get down to $3,500 an ounce. Um, and my kind of supposition here and
[06:52:02] let's I love analoges. So, the analog here is um, you know, January is the gold as June is to semiconductors because the the mania which I ra all the
[06:52:16] way up the mania in precious metals uh, terminated in January. Um, and you know, my shoe shine boy moment there, of course, as I mentioned, was going into my local bullion dealer and it being like a mob. You know, usually it's like
[06:52:30] one really lonely guy sitting on a squeaky old chair and this is like squeaky old chair and this is like mayhem. It's like, whoops, okay, that's not good. And sure enough, um, you know, it's [clears throat] been barfing up
[06:52:42] ever since. Silver, gold, you name it, platinum, palladium. So, gold continues platinum, palladium. So, gold continues to sink. uh silver uh same right triangle, same diminishment, same demolition. This has lost way more than
[06:52:56] demolition. This has lost way more than um than half its value at this point. Uh so grandma's tea kettle is safe for now again. Uh GDX the uh miners are down
[06:53:08] again. Uh GDX the uh miners are down again over 4%. Um pretty cool little distribution top there breaking below that. Um I only have two precious metals related positions. Uh one of them I've mentioned daily here which is Equinox
[06:53:23] um EQX and that's down about 5 1/2% today. when to close it or when to cover it. I'm just kind of letting it ride and tighten up the stop each day. Um and then XME
[06:53:38] then XME uh another wall up there down 4.2%. um the failed bullish breakout I I pointed out yesterday um being a good pointed out yesterday um being a good signal that this ain't popping and um
[06:53:53] that's been sinking away and as I've mentioned I'll just say it again the the mentioned I'll just say it again the the ratio between XME and GDX suggests that irrespective of what metals are doing but if you want to short one of them
[06:54:06] short XME I think because historically in from the cycle we're in right now XME is going to vastly underperform form GTX. GTX. Uh now let's talk about Bitcoin cuz I I
[06:54:18] am delighted to be completely short Bitcoin. Um and there's a lot of exciting things happening across the whole cryptoverse. Um one item which uh
[06:54:32] surprisingly a lot of people don't talk about. I think it should be like you about. I think it should be like you know uh headline news is STRC. Now, STRC was a concoction by one Michael Sailor
[06:54:48] uh who in his in an interview stated that he had uh used Chat GPT to invent this financial instrument. And I I and I about it deeply. I've just seen little snippets here and there. So, if this
[06:55:02] isn't exactly right, you've been warned. But my understanding is that this was created uh as a very appealing high dividend um kind of stable boring instrument to fund the acquisition of Bitcoin. And so
[06:55:17] fund the acquisition of Bitcoin. And so the draw was hey uh STRC pays 11 12% interest. And for a while here you can see very steady very dull very boring
[06:55:29] basically $100 day after day after day after day. some wiggles and wobbles here and there, but on the whole um pretty much a $100 creature. I'll just kind of it was, you know, like a passbook savings account. It was just kind of a h
[06:55:43] savings account. It was just kind of a h 100 bucks and you you uh you enjoyed 100 bucks and you you uh you enjoyed that 11 12% rate. Um well, it seems to that 11 12% rate. Um well, it seems to me that 11 12% or not, um let's reset
[06:55:56] this. Come on. This is just wretched. Um it it uh it's really getting zapped um as you can plainly see in front of you because um this thing today alone is down almost 8%. It's so it's gone from
[06:56:11] around 100 to 80. So uh yeah I guess it pays 11 12% a year but in the span of about a month it's lost 20%. So that doesn't really work does it? So, uh, to me that's sort of
[06:56:26] suggesting some real fundamental concerns about wo is strategy going to exist in a year or whatever. Um, so consider this not just a canary and a coal mine, but like he's got a bullhorn
[06:56:39] um, screeching that something's really wrong here with strategy. Um, Bitcoin itself is a big part of that obviously because strategy is basically a Bitcoin coin holding company. Um, we have breached the crucially important $60,000
[06:56:55] level. Um, they are fighting like hail to uh to reverse that. Um, but we have slipped down there. Uh, today we're down almost $3,000, a little more than 4%.
[06:57:07] And strategy itself, MSTR is down about twice that, more than twice that from a twice that, more than twice that from a percentage standpoint. Um, this company was uh like $542 in December of 2024. It is $94 now. It's
[06:57:24] about a 83% drop, 84% drop, something like that. Um, and it is priced now the like that. Um, and it is priced now the same as it was last millennium. Okay. How many things can you say that about? So um [clears throat] 27 years
[06:57:43] you know think of technology 27 years ago. So a high-tech company 27 years later is unchanged. So that's Michael Sailor the genius for you. Uh biti I'm long this and is up nicely and my hope is that we can break
[06:57:58] out above what would be a tremendous inverted head and shoulders pattern right there. So that looking pretty right on. Uh the cubes uh are down a little bit about percent. Uh again, kind of a mess of a chart, but so far so good
[06:58:14] and and not getting the massive rally I was fearing we would have today. Uh a few shorts I got here and there. Uh MRVL down uh almost 4% going nicely. Uh AXTI,
[06:58:26] our older friend, benching it every day, down almost 12% more today, breaching the uh distribution top that I've been tracking. STRV another frequent mention tracking. STRV another frequent mention here on the show 5.15% negative today uh
[06:58:40] lifetime no not a lifetime low but we have clearly broken below that that beautiful distribution top on that one uh the storage techn uh the storage companies uh like Western Digital like Seagate like SanDisk finally stopping
[06:58:54] Seagate like SanDisk finally stopping their daily ascent um STX down over 7% beautiful trend line failure there uh of course perpetual critical SMH uh against
[06:59:06] which I own January puts. Uh this is down um not quite 2% over $10 right now. Looking real good there. And u an example of another short I've got in example of another short I've got in that realm is uh Clack Kac Kle Core is
[06:59:21] down over 3%. But the bell of the ball in a few minutes is going to be Micron in a few minutes is going to be Micron MU uh presently down almost $40 almost 4%. And the key for me here is this island reversal gap right here which
[06:59:36] island reversal gap right here which took place um here's Tuesday, Monday, uh Thursday I guess uh flanking that and there's the gap. So we've got some there's the gap. So we've got some sunshine between uh each of those and uh
[06:59:49] if we can stay below that then it could look pretty good on the downside. Like I say I am short micron but just a teeny little bit. Um but if we get if it gets a wall up that would definitely be good overall. So, um, kind of a cool market
[07:00:03] we're in right now. It's a fun one and hope you're enjoying it and, uh, I will see you post Micron and post PCE. So, bye-bye.
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[07:01:05] [music] >> Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if
[07:01:18] you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? Oo, a green scratch [music] refers to stubbornness getting the best of you.
[07:01:32] And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that [music] you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss. A green scratch is
[07:01:46] winner, 10-cent winner, [music] 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss. >> [music]
[07:02:19] One road to take, one [music] life to live.
[07:02:51] [music] >> Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat.
[07:03:17] >> [music] >> Oh yeah. Oh yeah.
[07:03:39] up the charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. The last call. >> We are back. You're watching Tasty Live. It's the final 30 minutes of the trading
[07:03:53] day, which means it's time for Last Call. He's TP. I'm Chris Veio. TP. markets basically at the lows of the day ahead of those micron earnings. >> This was this was a pretty sharp sharp reversal. Now you and I called for a
[07:04:08] rally yesterday and last call and that's what we got. We were down what 110 bucks or whatever and we were right. It bounced higher. Um the what is the the
[07:04:20] sell off of the past couple of hours. The range is we're down 25 now. It's about a 75 point range if I recall correctly. Um and this was a trade what
[07:04:32] I had done earlier. I put on my uh SPX iron condors and this was exactly the time um or the day type of day where you want to take the 50% profits which I did. Again, not any kind of genius on my part. It's just the mechanics of doing
[07:04:47] part. It's just the mechanics of doing that trade. And I still would have been the S&P was still above my short put strike. Um, and I probably could have made some more money if I had held on to it, but why bother? I hit my 50% of max
[07:05:00] profit and I move on. But looking at what's weighing on this stock, uh, what the what's weighing on the S&Ps right now, Chris, I see it in all or I should say most of your favorite trillion dollar companies. Um, Nvidia down one
[07:05:16] dollar companies. Um, Nvidia down one and a half%, Google down uh 67 or 48%. and a half%, Google down uh 67 or 48%. Microsoft down 144, Amazon up 92 uh% AVgo down 70, Meta down 63.63%
[07:05:32] Meta down 63.63% um Meta Tesla down 189, Micron um Meta Tesla down 189, Micron um down 5%. And it's those stocks and again the last one on my list is Eli Liy. this Birkshshire Hathaway up 90
[07:05:46] Liy. this Birkshshire Hathaway up 90 Lily Li is up about 69 but obviously in these in these market cap weighted indexes like the S&Ps it's those you indexes like the S&Ps it's those you know Nvidia is a $4.7 trillion company
[07:06:00] know Nvidia is a $4.7 trillion company Apple is 4.3 trillion Google 4.2 two Apple is 4.3 trillion Google 4.2 two trillion. They vastly outweigh anything at the bottom end of that five of those 500 stocks. So, when they're down, um
[07:06:14] the S&Ps are down. But I do see Chris a lot of very broad-based selling across here. Um UNH is down. uh some of the financials like we were talking yesterday, Goldman Sachs down, Microsoft uh excuse me, Morgan Stanley down, um
[07:06:29] CME down, Robin Hood down, uh stocks like that are just pulling everything a little bit lower. Um it's it it is I'm seeing a lot of red on my
[07:06:41] map right now. >> There there is a lot of red on the map D-risisking kind of day. I wish I could point to a single catalyst. Oil's down what? Another three, four percent here. 4.4% right now. Two-year yields are
[07:06:55] down. This isn't about concerns over the Fed. >> All right. You can't point to the uh the Fed funds futures curve here, SR3Z6, and odds are going up." That's not a that's not a [clears throat] narrative that you
[07:07:07] can construct today. >> No, we're just raising capital. >> Well, yeah. And so, Chris, you've been doing this for a while. And after Micron reports, after the close of, of course, we could be surprised. Of
[07:07:21] course, anything could come out of, you know, left field and surprise the market. But what is what are what are any big news events coming in the next few weeks? I don't really see any. You're on top of it better than I am as
[07:07:35] far as uh the upcoming um big events, but I just don't see it. M after micron what is there >> inflation tomorrow inflation tomorrow is something that we look at PCE >> uh I believe let me just check my
[07:07:51] calendar here because next week should be 3 weeks after the week of the 12th >> so that means that we could have non-farm payrolls next week which it looks like we no we do not so those are going to be
[07:08:06] coming out for oh yeah we do July 2nd July we got So that's it. I mean, that's non-farm payrolls next week. >> And I think those numbers are pretty are pretty slim as far as actually being able to I don't think people know how to
[07:08:20] evaluate them high or lower, whatever. I think as you said, um, you know, there's expenditures and making trading decisions around that report. >> I guess so. I guess so. >> I don't I personally don't.
[07:08:35] >> I I mean, yeah, you can make any kind of argument about what it what it does. What's interesting here is, you know, what's rallying? Um, General, General General Electric, Coca-Cola, Proctor and Gamble, Costco's up today, Home Depot.
[07:08:49] Um, stocks like that are up. Johnson Johnson up a little bit as I we were talking about earlier, LY. Um, some of the consumer non-durables, some of the industrials are up. um everything else though, but those are relatively they're
[07:09:05] not small cap stocks by any means, but they're relatively um relatively outweighed by the by the trillion dollar companies. Um as far as the biggest companies. Um as far as the biggest rallies I see here, um Home Depot is up
[07:09:20] rallies I see here, um Home Depot is up a lot, the housing stocks like Dr. Horton, LAR, um, and you're just looking at XHV, the ETF that tracks the housing stocks, that's up, um, um, pretty significantly.
[07:09:35] Yeah, ITB, the home construction um, index, those things, the the housing sectors rally. I don't know how much of that is the failed um, you know, what's going on in Washington with Trump not signing the housing bill,
[07:09:51] don't think that's what's what's causing this. >> That can't be that can't be this. >> I no it's that's that's the political news. I don't think I don't think that is any impact. Um but I am surprised
[07:10:06] that with the rally you know well no I'm not surprised the rally in the 10 years today. Um again it's on par the the ratio between the rally in the 30s versus the 10ens that's about on par uh with what we're seeing today. that the
[07:10:20] rally in bonds means interest rates are lower and that 10-year yield, the yield on the 10-year notes is still the benchmark for mortgage rates. If it gets a little bit cheaper for people to uh buy a house as far as the interest rate
[07:10:35] co interest rate interest rate costs go, I'm all for it. Yeah, I I I think just for a sake of conversation, the political mechanism Trump saying he's not going to sign this uh the the housing bill, which is
[07:10:48] incredibly bipartisan, passed the Senate and the House with overwhelming majority on both sides of the aisle. Um he he could pocket veto it, right? He could just sit on it and not sign it, but then Congress would have to leave session for
[07:11:01] that to stay unsigned. Otherwise, he has 10 days. 10 days, not including Sundays, but 10 days. And if he doesn't sign it within 10 days nor veto it, then it automatically becomes law. So presidents just can't sit on things that Congress
[07:11:14] be a mechanism then that the market would be reacting so confidently to if decisions for housing stocks they they're aware of these laws and rules.
[07:11:27] I don't see this and I I don't think it's an issue. I I certainly don't think it's what's pushing pushing up the housing stocks and anything coming out of Washington is going to take months at the minimum to percolate through any
[07:11:40] the minimum to percolate through any housing sector. I think this is a a I think this is an interest rate driven decision. Look, Chris, the the the yield curve is is flattening out, right? The short-term rates are going up. Long-term
[07:11:55] longer term rates are falling. Um, gold is getting crushed. Silver is >> All those interest rate sensitive products like gold and silver are are
[07:12:07] selling off right now. Gold is pushing below $4,000 an ounce. In fact, the daily chart because of the open outcry close doesn't exactly capture it. We're here down below $4,000. And you know what? We do this segment with with CME
[07:12:21] five futures where we highlight a trade. And I'm seeing here that this is actually a great time for execution on what we want to do. I already had an initial position in 10 and I want to keep building into that position here as
[07:12:33] gold breaks down further. The drop below 4020 to me seems like another opportunity to get a little bit more going on here. So in the vein of adding on when something breaks out. Uh I really like 10 and just as a product
[07:12:46] size, right? You know, when you think about gold at $4,000 because of the $100 multiplier, that's like $400,000 of notional exposure that you're taking. >> GC is a very big product. And MGC is
[07:12:58] you take a step down by a tenth, it's still $40,000 of notional [laughter] particularly newer traders or smaller accounts. So, um, 10 here, right? I'm I'm adding in it's bringing my cost average down to 4162 on the short. I'm
[07:13:14] has been breaking down and it's been a liquidation type of day in the >> Yeah. >> Just really quickly before you move off a 10Z there, can you just create an order to buy one future? I want to see
[07:13:28] what the margin requirement is on that. >> Sure. >> So everybody can play at home. Right now the buying power effect is $65. And I
[07:13:40] don't think yeah I mean that's that's what it is. So if you are if you have a relatively small account um again futures I'm not saying futures are it's
[07:13:52] not the wild west. That's not what I mean at all. But that it is easy to open up a futures account to have it to to be able to trade futures right alongside your equity account. And one of the advantages of trading at Tasty is that
[07:14:06] you can see them side by side on your positions position page. So whether positions position page. So whether you're trading um IBM and Tesla or uh you know what or GLD the ETF which is strictly speaking an equity um you can
[07:14:20] trade 10Z/10Z and see it right along your positions. And that's what's nice about this platform. If you do not have a futures a futures account or futures capability um yet, please go into your account
[07:14:35] management, log into uh tasty account management. Um and I would strongly suggest doing that. Um is futures trading for everyone? Not necessarily. bit different. and there are nuances to it. But to your point, Chris, this is a
[07:14:51] if you are brand new to futures and if you want to put on a contrarian trade, a you want to put on a contrarian trade, a bullish trade in gold, one/10 is a relatively low capital way of doing that.
[07:15:03] >> Dollar for dollar, you know, before we move over to Micron here, uh, you know, probably going to be a little bit warm still because all the oil declines been going to be fully captured in that data
[07:15:16] Cleveland Fed just as like a intellectual exercise here. Uh we're looking for the PC numbers for May, but when we look to how the June data is tracking and it's June 24th, so a lot of the month is behind us by now. Headline
[07:15:29] CPI could come in at negative, right? We're looking at PCE coming at 0.11%. Tom, to get to a zero to get to a 2% inflation rate, you need to have 0.18% 0.11, the Fed's going to look at that
[07:15:44] cooling off. Maybe we don't need a hike rate. So, the market always looks through this kind of stuff. Tomorrow could be like a last way point for maybe some inflation scares, particularly if it misses and comes soft.
[07:15:58] >> I mean, I was looking at the I was looking at the Fed funds um the CME Fed funds watch, you know, use the Fed funds futures to calculate the probability of a rate hike. They actually dropped a couple of percent. Oh, from yesterday to
[07:16:12] today. um they're still well above zero as far as the probability of a rate hike in one of the next few uh FOMC meetings, but it has come down a little bit. Um and you know, we'll see. Again, I don't put I don't make trades based on the
[07:16:28] government data. It's it's I I've been through that too many times. I have no idea what an actual bullish number or bearish number is. Chris, you brought up bearish number is. Chris, you brought up um uh Micron, and I know that the sell
[07:16:43] side estimates for what the earnings per share and revenues are going to be for share and revenues are going to be for Micron are lower than the buy side shares. In other words, it's the sell side being like Goldman Sachs or JP
[07:16:57] side being like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan, UBS, versus buy side, which would be the big pension funds, that sort of stuff. And um yeah, they're just the there's they're oscillating back and forth. Buy side's more aggressive. Buy
[07:17:12] side is more bullish. Sell side is less so. Um so yeah, right now down uh 28 Chris. Please, if we could go to the trade page.
[07:17:25] >> And and I have a question for you that's following up to a confirm and send that thoughts on that. Uh, you want me to go to the two days here? 96. >> 97% IV. >> Yeah, [laughter] let's
[07:17:39] What's not to love about 196 implied volatility? So, the stock right now is 1022. That's right in between 1020 and 1025 for the sake of argument. Go down 10 points, up 10 points. 1020 down to 1010.
[07:17:54] The call, the puts are 51.80 on the ask price. Up 10 bucks from 25 to 35. Oh, it price. Up 10 bucks from 25 to 35. Oh, it could be up 25 to to 35. Um 54 54 versus
[07:18:07] 51. They're pointed north. So the call the skew is pointed towards the upside. the skew is pointed towards the upside. The market sees risk to the upside. Um knows? That's the market's guess. Chris, what was the question? So on confirm and
[07:18:22] send today, folks were asking about how Jeral and Mike are operating in Micron and they had put on a uh uh a long butterfly call which at 2 days to expiration it's slightly out of the money. It was I think the 1,50100
[07:18:37] 1150 strikes. >> Okay. I'm curious because we Liz and I had asked the question this morning um and I think we just arrived at the same conclusion together but and your take why would you want to put on something
[07:18:50] like a long butterfly a long call butterfly 2 days out from earnings that's slightly out of the money? >> Okay, so butterflies the and I hate to use analogies but an analogy here works. Um butterflies are like bets on a
[07:19:05] roulette table. um there's going to be a winning butterfly where where the there's the you have the two long options and the short center options, right? The butterfly maximizes its value if the
[07:19:21] stock is right at that middle strike, right at the middle strike. If it's much it's much lower, the butterfly is worthless. It is a it is a pinpointed bet like a number on a roulette wheel. So here's where we now move into the
[07:19:37] So here's where we now move into the option world. When something has a 200% implied volatility, >> that means Micron, who knows where Micron's going to be? Up 50 points, down 100 points, up 200. Who knows, Chris?
[07:19:51] Who knows which one is going to be the winning butterfly? No one knows. So that depresses the butterfly prices. When you have very very high volatility, that pushes tends to push down butterfly prices. That's why a long butterfly here
[07:20:07] if you want a just a cheap lottery ticket because it they typically have very low deltas, low probability of profits. If you want a cheap lottery ticket, a butterfly is is the trade. That's what it is. And if you nail it,
[07:20:21] you're awesome. You know, great. You you make you make can make a lot of money. If you don't, well, okay, not a not a huge cost, but that's why in low volatility uh products, Chris, butterflies are too expensive. Um, but
[07:20:36] low volatility means that the stock is probably the market kind of knows where >> right? Exactly. >> Um, and it jacks up what that's the up, >> right? That's exactly what uh Liz and I
[07:20:49] were discussing this morning. You don't want to do something like this in a low like why are we going to compensate you for the risk? We know where this is high V product, the market says this thing can go anywhere. And so if you
[07:21:02] to express that view because of all the relative uncertainty that's inherently interesting that they want to put this on. But one of the typical tasty ways to operate around earnings, of course, is to look for IV crush here, Tom. Uh so
[07:21:16] this. Right now it's still a 92. We're close to a 200 IV. If you're looking to make a trade around earnings today, as received here today, how are you approaching this? Are you going short
[07:21:28] with a short call spread, a short put spread? >> How do you how do you scramble this egg? >> By default, just short and iron condor. That's it, Chris. I mean, if I were directional, sure, solo put spread,
[07:21:40] bearish, sell a solo call spread, but I have no idea. I would go into two days and just I wouldn't go out that far. If I want to make this an earnings trade, I want to make this an earnings trade, I'd sell Yeah, I'd tighten Let's do
[07:21:54] Yeah, let's do five points. Do a five point spread. And I would make the short options have roughly equal prices. So, Chris, what did you sell those puts for? >> 790. I would I would go further out of the money on the call side to about
[07:22:10] seven bucks. So, I would match up the options just like that. Exactly like that. So, I have a fivepoint spread taking a dollar$1 dollar 20 credit. My max risk is 380 bucks. I'm okay with that. I'm okay with that. And it I don't
[07:22:25] I don't pay my bills with earnings trades. But if I could make 60 bucks on this iron condor, I'd be very happy. I'd be >> Right. And so I think, you know, usually my inclination is just to go out to the
[07:22:38] one standard deviation move here, but I like that fine-tuning where short strike should be the uh the same prices there >> because >> because because Chris, here's why. The
[07:22:50] because Chris, here's why. The you and I pay our bills with dollars. Options are priced. The theory is with percentages and all that stuff. But the bottom line is when the market is saying two options have the same price, that
[07:23:04] implicitly says this is how far we think the stock is going to go. That's it. In other words, I'll pay $7 for that call. I'll pay $7 for the put because I think
[07:23:16] yeah, okay, that's maybe how far the stock might go. If you want to take in a bigger credit, pull it in, right? Pull it into closer strikes. Again, no problem with that. But the point is when you match up the prices, even more so
[07:23:31] than matching up the probabilities, Chris, I think that's what I do. That's what I do. I match I match up values because the market is telling me that's what the likelihood is. Before we hop off this uh quick reminder about where
[07:23:46] a little bit of a bounce right now. S&P down by 0.16% here off the lows, 7426. Uh we have the Nasdaq here off the low. It's only down by 6/10 of a percent now. Quite little fight here. The low for the
[07:24:00] day was 29,264. We're back about 200 points to the upside. 29,470. final five or 10 minutes here. Get ready for those micron earnings back below >> 1961 here. So another one of those weird days TP where volatility is up, stocks
[07:24:16] made that leap. traction. It's kind of death by a thousand paper cuts right now. Uh let's go back to Micron for a second here though. One of the other questions we've
[07:24:29] it's fairly typical when you get big volatility readings heading into popular names. >> What if you want to avoid the earnings themselves? How far do you go out? Where is the volatility still juicy enough at
[07:24:43] the various strikes and the expirations that you would say, "Yeah, I want to 2 days." How do you make that decision to go to 81623 for example? >> I don't if I don't want to trade the
[07:24:57] earnings and I know that's kind of an open-ended question, but if I don't want to trade the earnings, I'll wait until tomorrow morning. Let the earnings come out, let Micron do whatever it's going to do. And then I will look at I'll go
[07:25:10] out to, you know, 37 days. Tomorrow they'll be the the July weeklies with 36 days. I'll start looking to create an iron iron condor in them. The bottom iron iron condor in them. The bottom line is even if volatility drops, Chris,
[07:25:24] line is even if volatility drops, Chris, even if volatility is hald tomorrow, it's still going to have a 50% implied volatility over two times what the VIX is. You're going to get rewarded for selling an iron condor.
[07:25:38] sticking to your plan and having the discipline. Uh Tom, if we're moving away going on in the semis broadly speaking where maybe people don't want the idiosyncratic exposure to Micron, but they want to stick to semis? How would
[07:25:52] you execute a trade here in SMH? >> Sure. I mean, it's the same it's the same thing. I would in this case, Chris, I would maybe go out to the 37 days. Um, and you want to bet on a on a on a drop in volatility um that you think, you
[07:26:08] know, 97% IV rank. Okay, fine. you have a short put spread in there. If you're bullish, that's the trade I would use. A defined risk trade. Again, we're talking about a $600 product. Selling naked options is in here requires a lot of
[07:26:22] money. Um, some accounts just don't have it. Use verticals. That gets around it. Um, you divide you you define your risk, you reduce the amount of capital you need to do the trade, but I would say, yeah, if you're bullish, I would I would
[07:26:36] go a little bit longer term. Um, I wouldn't trade SMH as a micron earnings product. I would trade it as generally bullish on the chip AI sector. >> You know what I find interesting where uh SMH sits right now, 97 IVR, right at
[07:26:51] the halfway point between the lows that we had in that second week of June and the all-time highs we established uh earlier this week right now. And so looking for something that's a little bit directionally neutral around these
[07:27:03] levels. I don't I don't exactly hate it here. you know, you go too far out in time, the way that SMH trades, you're probably going to see one of your levels short-term basis kind of makes sense to me. You mentioned 37 days here. I I
[07:27:17] that right now if only because the levels that we're looking at, I'm looking at that low near 550 and the highs up near 670. Uh 550 and 670. I mean, look, we can get paid there 540 and 670. We can go just right outside
[07:27:32] those highs and lows. And you know, it's almost it's kind of a coin flip here, >> Chris. What you're doing is you're taking in 20% of your risk. Okay. Your risk on this is Oh, I thought you Okay. You five points. You're taking you're
[07:27:49] taking about a third of the width of of your of profit in a third of the risk in your potential profit. That's a decent trade. You have a decent probability making half the money. you're generating $3.40 of positive theta. That's how I
[07:28:06] $3.40 of positive theta. That's how I would trade a neutral outlook in SMH it. Maybe we get filled here in the last few minutes. It never excites me when we get filled that quickly, but that's the
[07:28:18] are the best opportunities on the board right now? Yesterday you were speaking that were turning around as rates were coming back in. There's a little bit of an extension there today. S&P down by two ten of a percent here. Uh but the
[07:28:32] >> Oh, the Russell. >> The Russell the Dow are, you know, not for nothing. >> No, the pigs. >> I'm I'm still short a bunch of call spreads in IWM. There's they're not they
[07:28:47] haven't reached their maximum risk at this point, but there's I have zero risk in actually holding them, hoping for a sell-off. What little selloffs we've had in the Russell doesn't even get close to them. I need a good move down in IWM
[07:29:00] right now. That is it's not a huge loser, but it's a it's it's it's one of loser right now is my are my short puts in crude oil. That's what it is. >> Crude, I'm uh genuinely shocked that it keeps falling like a a knife down. It's
[07:29:15] at 79 or 70 dropped to 69 earlier. Was very surprised to see a six handle on there, but V keeps coming in TP. I mean, that's the story of crude right now. The story of crude is that the war is over. Where does this stop? I mean, I could
[07:29:27] see this going down to maybe 67, but that's the technician in me. Um, and at that point, we start to get down to the pre-war levels. Flows are resuming, though. Hey TP, we're going to have micron earnings coming up just shortly
[07:29:39] joining us for overtime to get that coverage in, but as we get ready for bounce here in the stock market, onetenth of a percent lower here in ES, fight back
[07:29:52] >> their losses. They are battling for the hearts and minds, Chris. >> And we shall continue that battle on overtime, which is coming up next after a brief break. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[07:31:06] [music] Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if
[07:31:19] you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. What does a green scratch mean? Ooh, a green scratch [music] refers to stubbornness getting the best of you.
[07:31:33] And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when
[07:31:47] you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, [music] 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.
[07:32:25] are back on overtime. I'm your host Chris Veio. He's Ilia Spivac. Ilia, earnings out right at the top of the hour. EPS comes in at $25.11 versus $20.71 expected. So it's a beat by 21%.
[07:32:39] expected. So it's a beat by 21%. Revenues coming in at 41.456 billion which is up against the expected 35.82 billion. So that's a beat by 16%. 35.82 billion. So that's a beat by 16%. EPS is up a that's not a typo 1,215%
[07:32:54] year-over-year. Revenues up 346% year-over-year. EPS up 106% quarter over quarter. revs up 74% quarter over quarter. The uh the guidance >> the guidance is good Ilia, you know, we
[07:33:08] got to talk about that too here. Uh Micron is telling us that they see fourth quarter adjusted revenue 49 to 51 billion. The consensus forecast was 43.24 billion and their three Q adjusted gross margins 84.9%.
[07:33:25] gross margins 84.9%. versus an estimated 81.9 84.9% >> That's gross. >> That's all Yeah. Not no pun intended, but that is filthy. >> So, we have a micron rally here. 1,083
[07:33:39] uh after hours. The share prices were trading lower effectively all day long. providing a lift back into positive territory here for the broader stock final five or 10 minutes of trading. For what it's worth, the S&P's effectively
[07:33:53] neutralized the day now. It's only up by a little bit more than a tenth of a percent. Same for the Nasdaq, up by about a tenth of a percent here. Not sure if we're out of the woods. And the earnings call for Micron is going to
[07:34:06] >> So, we'll call today a bit of a scratch all things considered. >> Um, Ilia, this sets the table though. Micron did its job. you beat on EPS and revenues by 20% or more and you guide higher in the same degree by 15% or so,
[07:34:22] the market's going to like it. I'm not saying we're going back to highs here, but maybe this stems the bleeding perhaps overnight and a lot of the semi- chips which been hit hard the past few days. It might stem the bleeding
[07:34:35] episodically. um it doesn't look like you're really going to do much because if we even if we look at what uh the futures are doing here, they're testing the underside of a range they just broke uh on a 4hour basis, on an 8 hour basis.
[07:34:50] uh on a 4hour basis, on an 8 hour basis. Um this looks more corrective and I would not be surprised at all if this fades uh because the nature of this has fades uh because the nature of this has had very little to do with anything that
[07:35:03] changes the story. We go back to this idea that um if we fix the straight of idea that um if we fix the straight of Hormuz and the war and oil comes down, everything will be okay. Is it? No. Crude oil is basically back to the
[07:35:20] pre-war levels and yet sentiment is melting. So if you were going to fix melting. So if you were going to fix that, were you going to have uh anything different? No. Did anything break the AI story to give
[07:35:35] us this selloff over the past several days? No. Absolutely nothing is different. >> Why are we melting down? >> because sentiment itself has turned and if you look at the bonds you can see it.
[07:35:49] lower at the front end of the curve and across the curve today. We have home builders as TP pointed out earlier on last call as the top performing sector the curve where you're going to have your mortgage rates based 10 30s uh
[07:36:04] they're they're looking pretty good. In fact Ilia maybe we just reanchor this perspective for what's happening in ZB. Um that to me is a pretty classic left head right shoulder that's breaking out right now. So maybe yields are on the
[07:36:17] >> I wish I I wish I jumped in. I missed I missed my opportunity. But that's a nice envelope and then using it as support after it's been resistance April, May, days before >> you run to the upside here. So home
[07:36:32] builders are doing really well today up 6.15%. 6.15%. XHB 5.62% higher. Consumers as well, you know, I don't want to look past these things. XRT retail nearing the top side
[07:36:45] of its range. It's been trading sideways for a year. So XRT is now up 2.84%. XLY for a year. So XRT is now up 2.84%. XLY adds another, we'll call it 1.15%, mostly rangebound for the past several months as well. But, you know,
[07:36:59] I can't help it. Oil's down 4%, two-year yields are in, 30-year yields are in across the curve, and the consumerf facing stuff is having the best day. >> Yeah. And I think that's really the thing to be concerned about
[07:37:15] thing to be concerned about >> because because if all the market cap sits in tech and semiconductors and has sat there forever, NASDAQ's up half a >> Mhm. Then when we look at what has been
[07:37:32] motivating the sell-off over the past let's call it month or so where stocks have clearly stopped rallying basically since midmay and are now in some sort of
[07:37:44] consolidative uh setup over the past several days since the ostensible uh positive news that the the war is over. We've faded and you got to ask why. And
[07:37:57] it's not because anything has gone wrong. It is because sentiment has wrong. It is because sentiment has changed. And the nature of sentiment is such that when sentiment has changed, that's it. There's nothing left to do.
[07:38:13] that's it. There's nothing left to do. There's nothing to fix because nothing was an episodic catalyst to trigger this. there was no headline. This is something that is occurring as I've uh pointed out because of the
[07:38:29] I've uh pointed out because of the inherent nature of the cost of money. We have had a relentless rise in the cost of money and eventually that becomes an issue because the situation as we just saw in the PMI
[07:38:43] numbers as we'll probably see in the revised GDP numbers tomorrow revised GDP numbers tomorrow the actual growth mix and the interconnection between inflation and the AI story
[07:38:57] is sentiment negative at this point because the actual ual growth mix is inflationary. >> Manufacturing is outpacing services. Business investment is outpacing
[07:39:10] consumers. This is not a positive environment and the markets have already >> So 7/10en of a percent higher here on NASDAQ. You have short deltas in your >> Yeah. >> Two questions then. One, will you fade
[07:39:26] this because hey, the market broke down. It's now bouncing back to a I think this the 4hour chart. Find me highs and lows have been more pivotal than the psychological re level.
[07:39:38] >> This is critical right here. >> Okay. So, one, are you selling into this move higher? Two, if you're not going to, are you then worried about this going flipping back through this key level? And at what point do you tap out?
[07:39:52] level? And at what point do you tap out? >> I have been sitting on bearish exposure for the better part of a month. And my uh kind of line in the sand is the highs from the top in June. I'm short against those highs. So for me,
[07:40:10] these are already positions that are working. I did not want to add to them today in the teeth of Micron because this thing might happen that we're looking at currently because again, the story hasn't changed. I don't think
[07:40:25] there's anything that should suggest that Micron ought to stop printing money. I just don't think it matters. I think the markets have long since discounted that and we're off into a different we're off into a different
[07:40:37] story. So yes, I'm looking to fade it. >> Um I'm going to look to fade it perhaps >> tomorrow depending on what uh the market gives me in terms of volume. I mean obviously riskreward still matters, pricing still matters. We'll see. But I
[07:40:53] this. >> So Micron's up 15% here after hours, bucks. >> Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
[07:41:05] alltime highs tomorrow, but Ilia, I can't help but notice here just one month, sell off into the one month here today, sell off into the one month, and another bounce. >> SNH, a very similar type pattern where
[07:41:19] appeared here. We've been watching this for a few weeks. >> That nice little hammer candle becomes resistance, support one month.
[07:41:31] >> It just feels like it could hold here. >> Yeah, I mean this feels like a place that I should be. Well, I mean, I'm hoping it Well, you know, you're that hold here, I still sitting short of put
[07:41:44] spread. [laughter] 37 days to expiration 615600. I'm completely open-minded uh by the way to being wrong about uh this because there is the possibility of another inning here where the markets look at the
[07:41:58] bonds, they see the bonds coming uh back up a little a bit and they misread up a little a bit and they misread the tape. Um, but
[07:42:10] so far over the past 48 hours in particular, what we've learned is that stocks fall and bonds rally. And that's new since the war trade started and that war
[07:42:26] trade was about inflation and this apparently is less so that now. This seems to be a cyclical thing. Look at the breakdown in sectors um yesterday in
[07:42:39] the breakdown in sectors um yesterday in particular but today obviously bit of a particular but today obviously bit of a micron themed story but yesterday it was very telling today it's not altogether different I mean let's consider the
[07:42:52] sectors that did the worst today energy basic materials and tech what is that the data center buildout which sectors did well today healthare care,
[07:43:04] utilities, defensive yesterday. Which sectors did well? Healthcare, real estate, consumer defensive. Which sectors got killed? defensive. Which sectors got killed? Tech, basic materials,
[07:43:19] Tech, basic materials, energy. Again, we're looking at energy. Again, we're looking at now a much more cyclical themed mix as though the market has concluded the economy is already overheating.
[07:43:31] So, I'm trying to think about tomorrow's PCE report that's coming out. >> I'm looking at the 5-year 5-year inflation swap forwards, which have been trending lower over the past several weeks and quite frankly are where they
[07:43:45] were back in October of last year, which is to say that in October of last year, >> no one was thinking that the inflation the market derived measures of inflation stress. >> Right? And then I'm looking at the
[07:43:59] Fed here >> and I'm starting to notice that you're getting a little bit of downdrift in the headline PCs. Now, it's not filtering over into core yet and core PCE. And you can see from May to June, there's still
[07:44:11] expected upward drift. But when the Fed sees headline PCE coming in, headline CPI coming in, >> it does give it a reason to pause and go, okay, well, if there was a lag in the core readings going up, then there's
[07:44:25] readings coming down that now that headline inflation has a negative month >> I'm just I'm I'm not sure. >> The market's always forward looking. >> Yes. So tomorrow we get PCE inflation
[07:44:38] that doesn't reflect the narrative of oil trading at $70. >> How much stock does the market put into that then? >> I think it's really important as it was with the CPI and the PPI numbers to look
[07:44:52] at the core because what you're really looking for here is not the oil shock. The oil shock is a foregone conclusion. What you're looking for is spill over into stickier parts of inflation. That's number one. And number two,
[07:45:08] you're looking at inherent inflationary uh impetus, which is again something that was u on the tip of the tongue for Fed officials before the war where they were saying, "Look, inflation seems to be perking up. We seem to not
[07:45:24] be getting getting the fade out that we thought we were going to get when we cut thought we were going to get when we cut by 75 basis points at the end of 20 25. Hold on a minute now. And the reason why the Fed was talking about that again
[07:45:38] even before this war was because the very nature of growth as led by business investment and manufacturing is inflationary
[07:45:50] relative to growth driven by the service sector and consumers because you have to spin that lesser engine much faster to get half as much growth. And so if you look at the velocity of
[07:46:04] And so if you look at the velocity of money, I know we're getting into uh real uh wonky stuff here, but if you look at the velocity of M2 money supply, it's surging. That's inflation. And then you have the
[07:46:21] war as an added shock. So when you're looking at these PCE numbers, never mind the energy component. We know that's there. We we we know that's been there for months. Also, the CPI is out, the
[07:46:35] PPI is out. Usually, you can back out PCE out of those components without all that much work. The question here really is how much scarring is there going to be in core services from the inflation shock on top of what else is there? And
[07:46:52] if that suggests that the Fed is not going anywhere quickly here or that in fact they are likelier to hike and that this September move is on.
[07:47:04] attention to. >> Yeah, there's a little wrinkle in the Fed funds pricing here uh in terms of the how the market's moving. No longer July on the table favored for a hike, right? That was a basically a two and
[07:47:17] down to about 35%. September is still favored as the next month for a hike, but then nothing else for the rest of this year. January, you get to like 50.5% chance of a hike. So, I'm, you know,
[07:47:32] there's still a soft landing. Oh, I I I feel myself falling back into the stupid feel myself falling back into the stupid ways of 2022 and 2023.
[07:47:44] NASDAQ right now. we can start to bump through the lows that we had earlier. through the lows that we had earlier. I'm going to point out the uh 617 lows. That's June 17th, 29,923. >> You bump through there a little bit, you
[07:47:57] market starts to feel a little bit better. Maybe you get another attempt at a swing higher then because then you enter the top half of its multi-month trading range going back to we'll call it early May at this point.
[07:48:10] There are still some good signs here though. The Russell is up 0.75%. RSP, your favorite equal weighted S&P 500, up 7/10en of a percent right now. It's and bumping up against its one month as it's done so many times before
[07:48:24] >> as you would expect in a in a liquidation because all the money is liquidation because all the money is coming out of uh highly concentrated names. >> You would expect RSP to do relatively
[07:48:36] well here. You would expect that to be a marker of the beginnings of a sentiment shift. Isn't that the difference between between liquidation and people getting liquidation, wouldn't everything be
[07:48:50] falling? >> No. And I think that's really the key here. We're not quite in full kind of hair on fire mode. And in that case, >> Well, let me let me take let me take a step back. This week, value, the cheap
[07:49:05] crap has outperformed quality, right? So this is not even under the surface of the stock market when you break it down by factor performance. >> It's not like the market has fled to quality names. They're jumping out of
[07:49:19] high value stuff and going into cheap stuff. And that's one of these little like is that really the hallmark of a people that are panicking? You don't go into cheap stuff. You go into high quality things when you're worried
[07:49:31] about, you know, credit deterioration, economic growth decline, drop in higher, you don't go to the junk. the junk is still >> I think I think what's going on here is much simpler. I I don't think that that
[07:49:45] much simpler. I I don't think that that until the last 48 hours we really were going into a situation where this was a cyclical concern. I think the bonds are starting to show that literally over the past two days. I think what we're
[07:49:58] looking at as far as the stock market is concerned and the reason why RSP is a concerned and the reason why RSP is a little bit better which by the way if this were a rotation that were healthy RSP would be scorching
[07:50:13] healthy RSP would be scorching it would be breaking out like a rocket ship because there is so much money not in those names that aren't semiconductors and tech tech has been outperforming by
[07:50:27] and tech tech has been outperforming by such a ridiculous margin for 3 years now going on four that the amount of rotation that there that the amount of rotation that there is to do is astronomical.
[07:50:41] The reweighing would be huge if this is that. But it's not. RSP is barely moving. It's just not falling like the headline index is. headline index is. And to me, what this looks like is
[07:50:58] about as good as you can get in a liqu in a liquidation because money is moving clearly. I mean, the dollar is is at the highest in over a year.
[07:51:10] is at the highest in over a year. Money is clearly moving into cash and money is clearly also rotating into some of these less loved not tech not semiconductor names opportunistically.
[07:51:25] semiconductor names opportunistically. If it were really staying risk on chart >> I'm try I'm I'm I'm having trouble the cost of capital going up. So, I'm selling out of semiconductors, which are
[07:51:41] cash cows right now, free cash flow machines, and running to the Russell unprofit. >> You're not, which is why it's not breaking out. You're going primarily to cash, which is why that's breaking out.
[07:51:55] going back to Micron here is extending its gains after hours 1166. Again, it closed the day uh I guess technically last trade print is 11, excuse me, 10:48
[07:52:07] 12. So, it's about $200 higher. 100. My math is awful right now. $110 higher here right now. Um, there's a great guy I follow on Twitter who uh writes a a great substack. Um, Tay Kim at first adopter. His he has like 100,000
[07:52:22] His reaction to the Micron guidance here is holy crap. I think this is worth up on screen here, but I kind of just want to translate this right now. when he says that they've signed now 16 strategic customer agreements or SCAs we
[07:52:36] expect will fundamentally transform our business model just right off the top of the bat Ilia Micron is telling the market here today that the memory cycle is becoming less cyclical I consider that to be a hugely this little segment
[07:52:53] of comments that have been highlighted here a huge arrow in the quiver having read through this for the argument the thesis that demand for compute having energy security or national defense policy is breaking out of its cyclical
[07:53:08] cycle and would be >> I I I point that out because overnight we got news that SK highix is considering a US IPO offering considering a US IPO offering >> which in the George Soros theory of
[07:53:21] >> well talking about this in the terms of like the George Soros uh theory of reflexivity higher prices attract more supply more supply attracts lower prices supply more supply attracts lower prices So what's what's this company trying to
[07:53:34] do? They're trying to raise capital to expand production. More capital is going to lead to more supply. Um Micron is telling you that's not a thing you need through this guidance. And I find that to be the most important takeaway.
[07:53:47] Forget the numbers that they put up. They're making an argument is that they have uh you know this system here take this is these are binding agreements. They have a ton of revenue locked in at 80% plus margins for the foreseeable
[07:54:02] future. It's a it's a remarkable story that's going on in theory. >> That's incredible. And you would of course expect as much. I think you have course expect as much. I think you have to remember that in in evaluating
[07:54:15] how amazing the great and powerful Micron future is going to be. You have to remember a very kind of old and wellworn adage. The economy is not the market. And the market is not the economy.
[07:54:30] We're not talking about whether Micron is going to mint money. We're talking about whether the market is going to buy it and go up. That's a whole other >> They're we're t semiconductors and chips and memory in general have been viewed
[07:54:44] as these cyclical chips with this. If the if as I'm reading through the comments that they're making here, if my understanding is correct, I'm gonna say that this means about half of Micron's future revenue is booked for the
[07:54:59] foreseeable future. Right? That's a that's a higher floor of production capacity certainty moving forward. And that's locked in prices with customers, stuff. Someone is going to come buy it. We have the demand for it here. You
[07:55:13] fundamentally changing. I don't think we can ignore that. It's happening right these types of changes, we only know about them in hindsight. IA, I am so excited to look at Micron's new PE ratio because it wasn't it was
[07:55:28] still holding below 10 going into uh going into today's report. Where are we at now? 8 8.6. Yeah, I mean there is I think
[07:55:43] Yeah, I mean there is I think the difference of differences between looking at this and saying well clearly this is an economically clearly this is an economically transformative moment in time
[07:55:56] transformative moment in time and so was 99 and 2000. and so was 99 and 2000. Well, let's remember here we are. The Well, let's remember here we are. The internet clearly worked out as an idea
[07:56:10] >> that did not prevent for there >> to be >> $28 billion of net income on $41.5 billion of revenue. That's and they're about half of that >> revenue locked in for the next uh you
[07:56:26] >> Well, good. This is >> what's there on >> whether or not to take profits. >> Oh, no. That's I'm feeling good about the little bit of the semiconductor uh
[07:56:42] am not feeling good about that short iron condor that was put on today. Uh here, although we're getting a little bit of a V pullback. The short strike is 540 on the short put spread. It's 690 on the short call spread side here, Ilia.
[07:56:57] is going to jump another 50 bucks which would be a 9% day 8.5% day here for semis tomorrow. Not out of the question but we're already up about 3% or so here
[07:57:10] in the after hours. Uh I think I'm just going to take this off right away. The 37 days that can hang out for a little while as it were because that's working thinking about some of the NASDAQ exposure that I have that building into
[07:57:24] MNQ in recent days. I would love to get a little bit more, but we've got to get now. Um, I know you and I differ on this, but I see this little swing high here, the 623 candle. So, that's
[07:57:36] yesterday morning. Why does that matter? It's when we retested the pivot low from this market was going to go into a new breakdown. So, getting through there to me would signal we have a durable low here from today to trade around. And I
[07:57:51] would layer in another short MNQ position. Um, looking at the strikes, 37 days to expiration seems like the price is right to me. That low comes in at 29,263. So, just going out to the other side of it here. I'll go to 29,000 and
[07:58:05] maybe 250 points wide, risking 3 and a half to make one at a 62% probability of profit. I'll just I'll keep stacking that in MNQ and nipping the little exposure on these pullbacks um because it continues to work for me right now.
[07:58:20] it continues to work for me right now. Helia. Yeah. I mean, look, I think it's Helia. Yeah. I mean, look, I think it's pretty clear here uh what that what we're going to find tomorrow is going to be telltale. I
[07:58:32] think we're at a clear inflection point. To me, this looks a whole lot like I'm going to have the clearance to sell some more tomorrow. And I'm going to be doing it by selling calls. So, I'm going to be
[07:58:48] short vol here. I'm going to be risk defined. I'm going to be doing it in the ETFs. But this looks like a mulligan. This looks like a breakdown that is This looks like a breakdown that is giving you a correction to sell into.
[07:59:01] God speed, sir. Overtime is now out of time for this Wednesday, June 24th. We'll be back tomorrow, same time, same place for Eastern 3 Central right after last call. So, for Ilasc, I'm Chris Veio. Good luck trading and of course,
[07:59:14] around. And he's got macro money up next here on Tasty Live.
[07:59:31] she is. K, you found the place. Good. You're not stupid. [laughter] loved every one of them. So, maybe you're the next one having a good day. really good again, so I'm feeling all right. Hey, where'd you go to college?
[07:59:45] >> me. University of Penn State Community College. You didn't know they had one of >> Oh, >> I'm one of the Rams now. Do you have any >> I do. My parents are watching. They're sitting on a rainbow. I'm half man, half
[07:59:59] know. >> Talking about it gets me pretty hot, though. Uh-oh, there it is. >> His pants just got tighter. Does that make me more mysterious and attractive? Uh-oh. Watch yourself. If
[08:00:13] brother did that once. He can't talk now. >> Yeah, pretty serious. Are we getting serious? I think so. How many kids do I want? 5 11. First meal. Here we go. >> That was rude.
[08:00:26] >> This is on you. So much time is flying by. You're very funny. >> You're not that funny, so don't worry about it. >> Not a big fan of Sam's anymore. But now you know everything about me. I feel
[08:00:39] like I'm opening up so much. God, I'm scared. This thing is moving so fast. >> Oh wow. I haven't cried like this in a long time. Are these tears? >> Uh-oh. Here we are. Front door. Big first kiss moment.
[08:00:51] first kiss moment. >> Oh for me. You're a great kid.
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[08:03:03] >> Micron saves the markets from another ugly close just in the nick of time, but the damage may be done already and sentiment could be running away on
[08:03:15] autopilot. That's what we're going to try to explore here and see what comes uh of it here on Macro Money. I'm Spechead of Global Macro here at Tasty Live. And the makeup of the price action that we see today before those micron
[08:03:32] earnings and frankly thereafter too seems to be telltale. So, we'll take a seems to be telltale. So, we'll take a look here and see what it means and what look here and see what it means and what we might infer going forward. Here's the
[08:03:45] we might infer going forward. Here's the S&P 500. Uh you can see it took a nasty spill yesterday, taking out uh this internal support right here. Uh and of
[08:03:57] course, this is starting to look increasingly like a double top. Now, increasingly like a double top. Now, those micron earnings did help the S&P those micron earnings did help the S&P erase this uh bit of follow through
[08:04:10] right here. Uh it looks like we're going to close just a touch in the green when it's all said and done. And of course, those micron earnings were impressive to those micron earnings were impressive to say uh the least. Uh EPS of 25 uh bucks
[08:04:26] 111. That's a beat of 21% relative to expectations of $20.71 relative to expectations of $20.71 on revenue of 41.5 billion. Uh that's uh against expectations of 35.8 billion, so a beat
[08:04:42] of 16%. Uh EPS up a staggering 1,25% yearonear. So uh if you needed evidence that the uh AI buildout was u minting
[08:04:58] that the uh AI buildout was u minting money, here is your evidence. Um not like we were really looking for for it. Um but huge numbers clearly uh and so Um but huge numbers clearly uh and so that we get um a little wrinkle here um
[08:05:13] that we get um a little wrinkle here um that pauses the sell-off is hardly that pauses the sell-off is hardly surprising. But perhaps even more interesting is just how little of a wrinkle we end up getting. Um now
[08:05:27] wrinkle we end up getting. Um now we did erase intraday losses uh in the we did erase intraday losses uh in the S&P but only just so S&P but only just so and nothing else. Um similarly uh we've
[08:05:39] uh erased intraday losses [clears throat] in the NASDAQ not surprising of course there as well. uh but again the architecture of yesterday's breakdown very much intact there also but it's really what's
[08:05:53] happening in other markets against this backdrop that makes this so ominous we backdrop that makes this so ominous we of course have uh what looks like a top of course have uh what looks like a top to work with in the S&P and we also have
[08:06:08] to work with in the S&P and we also have a broader range with um support here u coming in at the June low. And for now, we don't have a convincing breakout from this range. We just have a range that's overtaken as
[08:06:24] the dominant setup after an aggressive rally. And so momentum has stalled. And looking just at this, one concludes, okay, well, we'll see how this goes. Maybe we'll consolidate and break higher. Maybe we'll break down. But the
[08:06:39] higher. Maybe we'll break down. But the signs in other markets are far less Taking a look at gold here, it is continuing to sink, taking out uh the
[08:06:53] continuing to sink, taking out uh the support here uh that we saw at this spike low and threatening to take us below the 4,000 level and down into here. Uh these bottoms going all the way back to last year. November or or so.
[08:07:11] The US dollar is continuing to surge. Uh it's taken a little a bit of a backst step here in the second half of the day uh versus the first half. But the breakout here from range resistance that has held back prices going all the way
[08:07:28] back to uh July of last year, that's unmistakable. And now it looks like we're aiming at the highs from May of last year. So a very aggressive uh move
[08:07:40] in the dollar here and altogether you would think ah well gold is selling off the dollar is rallying stocks are kind of wobbly surely this is uh again some
[08:07:52] sort of reflection of the war trade where we were looking since late February early March at this dynamic where uh we we had this war anytime that a bad headline would come out of the Middle East the market would get jitter
[08:08:07] thinking, "Ah, well, this is going to be an inflationary oil supply shock." That's going to drive up yields and tell the Fed not to cut in
[08:08:19] a stronger dollar. We're going to have weaker gold. Gold, of course, doesn't yield anything. So, rising yields and a rising dollar hurt it inherently. Rising yields can be uh beneficial for the dollar. Uh on the flip side, because of
[08:08:34] dollar. Uh on the flip side, because of course the dollar does uh confer yield on its holders, it also uh obviously benefits from a higher interest rate environment in the sense that one person's uh borrowing
[08:08:49] cost is another's lending income. And so if you are a holder of dollars and if you are a holder of dollars and borrowing dollars is costlier, then a lender earns more lending it. And so there is uh interest in in in owning it
[08:09:02] there is uh interest in in in owning it then. So on the surface this looks like a war trade gone wrong kind of a thing where something has occurred to stoke the market's inflationary uh jitters. But
[08:09:19] looking at crude oil here, it seems clearly something else because crude oil continues to sink and is increasingly getting to a place where it has erased the war altogether.
[08:09:35] the war altogether. We're within a hair of this upside gap that marked the start of the war. That's now essentially the bogey. And we're closer to it than farther from it. We've definitely given up the up move here.
[08:09:50] The series of higher highs and higher lows in crude oil has long since uh come undone and this hardly seems like the impetus this hardly seems like the impetus duour. Moreover, bonds have accelerated
[08:10:04] higher. That of course means interest rates have come in. And so although we haven't had a breakout here, this is now becoming a very interesting mix. Stocks down, dollar up, gold down.
[08:10:24] All of that seems to speak to inflation, but at the same time, crude oil is all but back from that upsurge in geopolitical
[08:10:36] back from that upsurge in geopolitical uh risk premium from the war. And the market seems to think interest rates are aiming lower, not higher in this environment. So what's going on? Well,
[08:10:49] as we talked about yesterday, this seems like the beginning of where the market looks at the current situation and says, "Right,
[08:11:01] situation and says, "Right, the inflation that came as a function of the war together with the inflation that was together with the inflation that was already there as a function of the
[08:11:14] imbalance in the way that US economic growth has arranged itself. That was an inflation shock and a reason for interest rates to look
[08:11:27] like they are probably not going to be cut. cut. But all of that then leads us into an But all of that then leads us into an economic downturn.
[08:11:41] and perhaps the incoming economic data that we're going to get here, that we're going to get here, the updated BCE inflation numbers, uh, still the Fed's favorite gauge until, uh, the new Fed chair Kevin Worsh's task
[08:11:55] force has come up with something different maybe, uh, by the end of the year, as well as a revised set of first quarter GDP data that really highlights why growth has become inflationary and
[08:12:09] what that ultimately means going forward. But an environment in which bonds are acting not as a proxy for monetary policy but as a haven and surging alongside the dollar
[08:12:26] and surging alongside the dollar while stocks come down and capital comes out of gold. All that seems to come together to suggest that there is a kind of liquidation underway where capital is
[08:12:40] going to liquidity that is the dollar and relative safety that is bonds and typically that kind of risk aversion classic
[08:12:52] typically that comes with some sort of cyclical risk and the idea that perhaps the economy is headed for the skids. Now, here is the incoming report on
[08:13:08] inflation. Now, uh we can see we've already seen quite a bit of a jump here. And that's to be expected, of course. We've just had a war that's turned out to be a massive uh inflation shock. And so, not surprisingly, the headline
[08:13:23] numbers have bounced aggressively. Uh perhaps more interestingly still, the perhaps more interestingly still, the core is creeping higher. Uh and so what we're finding here uh is a situation where just like we saw in uh CPI, just
[08:13:41] like we saw in uh the PPI reports that we've seen over recent weeks, we're seeing spillover from what's going on at the headline into core, which excludes
[08:13:54] energy and for that matter food. The expectation uh for these incoming numbers uh is that we're going to get a rise to 4.1% year onyear for headline. That would be the highest since April 2023.
[08:14:09] So we'd be going over here. And for the core that we're going to get to 3.4% year-over-year, that would be over here somewhere. Uh and would be uh the highest since October
[08:14:24] of 2023. So either way, we're approaching something like give or take approaching something like give or take three-year highs on PCE inflation. And if we look at uh the forecasting here for uh the Cleveland Fed's now cast, we
[08:14:42] can see indeed the headline is expected to edge up a touch and hit right around that four% mark. uh the core seen a little bit
[08:14:54] flatter here but it looks like uh the forecasting envisions a kind of forecasting envisions a kind of flattening out of inflation. Now if we flattening out of inflation. Now if we look at the PCE and PPI uh and CPI
[08:15:09] numbers in concert because the PCE tends to come later than the other two and the other two tend to contend um with a lot of the same variables and have a lot of the same components. You can usually reconstruct a model of PCE
[08:15:26] reconstruct a model of PCE once PPI and CPI are out and get a sense for where it's going. And the critical thing here, of course, is unlikely to be, oh well, how much of a
[08:15:40] unlikely to be, oh well, how much of a shock is energy? And could we dismiss that? Because clearly crude oil has uh significantly reversed. Well, of we know, of course, that these
[08:15:55] numbers are going to be uh shaded by uh an energy inspired inflation shock. So, an energy inspired inflation shock. So, that really ought not to be a meaningful object of speculation. The much bigger deal for markets will
[08:16:10] probably be the extent to which there is scarring from the inflation shock into scarring from the inflation shock into core sticky inflation that is likely to have a meaningful impact on the Fed uh beyond the immediate term. And we can
[08:16:25] see that in spades in the CPI report where we can see the month-on-month where we can see the month-on-month surge in service sector inflation is the strongest that we've seen in give or take two years. And we ended up there
[08:16:41] because a lot of the energy shock has moved from just the price of fuel over into things uh in the service sector like warehousing, like freight.
[08:16:54] And so uh we already have that part of it there. The larger issue uh for the the PCE numbers uh arguably is going
[08:17:06] to be do we confirm that that spillover is also occurring into core on the PCE side and perhaps even more importantly do we have other inflationary impetus
[08:17:19] do we have other inflationary impetus here besides what's going on from uh sort of a discernable war related catal IST and the spill over
[08:17:31] from that. And how sticky is that? Because again, the Fed was worried about inflation heating up before this war began.
[08:17:44] heating up before this war began. And much of that comes from the way that economic growth has started to arrange itself. And in this sense, the final revision of first quarter GDP numbers is going to be very interesting as well.
[08:17:59] Now, it is expected to confirm what we've already gotten in the second revision, which is that uh the initial forecast of 2% growth got clawed back to 1.6. That's what we see right here. It's also
[08:18:14] a pickup from the 0.5% growth that we recorded in the fourth quarter where uh output was hamstrung by a US government shutdown. So we're a a US government shutdown. So we're a little bit less than halfway back to the
[08:18:29] little bit less than halfway back to the average of 4% growth in the second and third quarter of last year before that government shutdown. Once the dust kind of settled from uh the first uh quarter
[08:18:42] uh acrimony having to do with the roll out of the Trump administration's tariff out of the Trump administration's tariff regime growth got to about four%. In the second and third quarter and that was the baseline.
[08:18:57] government shutdown obviously that got crushed. What's interesting about the comeback then in the first quarter is that while we've only clawed back about halfway, a little bit less,
[08:19:13] we've done it in an unusual mix where investment, which is only about 14 15% of the economy,
[08:19:25] 15% of the economy, contributed more to growth than did consumer spending, which is five times larger. five times larger. at 68% of the economy.
[08:19:38] And so naturally, you go, well, how do you get a small engine of growth to contribute more than a large engine of growth? Well, you got to get the small engine moving really, really fast. And that's in fact what we saw. We've looked
[08:19:53] at this chart quite a lot uh recently. Um very helpful one from the folks at Bloomberg. And we can see here that business investment grew at a blistering
[08:20:05] business investment grew at a blistering speed uh in excess of 10% annualized in the first quarter. Meanwhile, what happened with consumer spending uh continued to look grim. A second consecutive quarter of slowdown there
[08:20:19] and uh growth meaningfully weaker than GDP itself. GDP itself. So we can see here what this growth seems to be made of and that the nature of it seems to be
[08:20:34] and that the nature of it seems to be inflationary. Because when you spin that inflationary. Because when you spin that smaller engine of growth so quickly as to contribute more than consumption which is five times bigger, you're going
[08:20:48] to have a whole lot of money turning around and uh changing hands. And that is the thing that inflation is made of. As a matter of fact, uh the velocity of As a matter of fact, uh the velocity of money has been surging
[08:21:03] and now is approaching something uh near a six-year high. So when we look at the more recent growth
[08:21:15] when we look at the more recent growth numbers, uh this is the US PMI numbers that came out covering June. And so capturing the second quarter here, uh we capturing the second quarter here, uh we can see there's been a meaningful pickup
[08:21:29] in growth on the surface. This is of course done in the logic of PMIs where 50 is neutral, above 50 is growth, below 50 is contraction. The further you go further you go below 50, the faster the contraction. And clearly in June's
[08:21:43] numbers, we had the strongest growth, the highest above 50 that we've been since January. But echoing what we saw in those first quarter numbers, if we look at the makeup of the growth, it's
[08:21:56] being led by manufacturing which is only about 20% of the economy as relative to services which is closer to 70 approaching 80.
[08:22:09] And so we see here that the much larger sector is hugging that 50 line and barely moving. Manufacturing on the other hand moving. Manufacturing on the other hand is scorching hot.
[08:22:23] is scorching hot. We likewise see the results. Inflation is clearly pointed higher. And although we get a little bit of a pullback here we get a little bit of a pullback here alongside uh crude oil prices in the
[08:22:38] input side of the equation in particular manufacturing inputs which is of course energy and just more generally prochemicals heavy
[08:22:50] the services output price line here in the orange note how that continues to move higher. that continues to move higher. suggesting that the indication here in
[08:23:04] suggesting that the indication here in the PMI report closest to consumer inflation, closest to CPI, closest to PCE is continuing to build.
[08:23:18] closest to PCE is continuing to build. And so what we find then is a situation where the very nature of growth is becoming inflationary whether you have a war shock or not. And indeed this is
[08:23:34] happening not just in the US but globally where manufacturing is outpacing services. This is as of May the global uh PMI numbers. We'll get the June update once all of uh the count's uh reports come out and most importantly
[08:23:50] uh reports come out and most importantly China next week. But as of May, we can clearly see that manufacturingled global growth is also very inflationary.
[08:24:06] And again, it's not rocket science. Why? As with the US, the main thing that's driving the global economy more broadly seems to be this AI buildout. And that is of course heavy on all things manufacturing in particular the uh
[08:24:22] buying and stockpiling of inputs in anticipation that the costs are going to be even higher downwind. You see a lot of that going on uh in the US in of that going on uh in the US in particular. But the
[08:24:37] particular. But the issue with that is that as you get this inflationary growth, you're only squeezing consumers harder. you're only squeezing consumers harder. So consumers that are already weaker, as
[08:24:51] So consumers that are already weaker, as we saw in this US GDP breakdown, are only being made more so by how quickly this is spinning is uh spinning and spilling over into
[08:25:08] broader inflation. And so this starts to become something of a vicious cycle. The hotter the inflation inflation that's created by the boom in the AI
[08:25:25] buildout, the more consumers are hampered and the likelier it is that you consumption that its size overwhelms whatever is
[08:25:38] going on and you start to see growth backsliding. As a matter of fact, we saw this already in the PMI numbers that we just uh looked at for the Euro area, Australia, and the UK. All three of those economies
[08:25:55] are in contraction mode with a booming manufacturing sector capturing knock-on manufacturing sector capturing knock-on effects from this AI buildout globally. But those service sectors have become so
[08:26:10] weak and demand has so suffered as a function in particular of this inflation that those economies are in contraction mode because those service sectors are just so much bigger. It hasn't happened yet
[08:26:24] so much bigger. It hasn't happened yet in the US and for that matter in similarly of AI leveraged economies like Japan as we just saw. But Japan as we just saw. But the way that this is likely to work
[08:26:39] going forward seems to be getting foreshadowed in those European and Australian numbers. Not surprisingly then, there's been uh an aggressively hawkish shift in central bank expectations. And now
[08:26:55] with a lot of these central banks having already made some uh kind of uh move or already made some uh kind of uh move or at the very least u seen scope for a move ease back a little. So the bank of England hasn't hiked but the markets are
[08:27:12] starting to uh question just how much they will do though they're still on the menu for at least one hike. The Fed is now on the menu for at least one and uh a strong possibility of a second. The ECB has already issued
[08:27:27] of a second. The ECB has already issued one hike and is expected to do one more one hike and is expected to do one more but only just. The RBA has already but only just. The RBA has already issued three hikes and is narrowly
[08:27:39] uh looked at as uh likely to produce a fourth. But as we look at all of this fourth. But as we look at all of this together, what we start to see is after
[08:27:52] this initial inflation shock, but for the Fed, the Fed, a lot of this hawkishness has eased back. And part of that surely is that for
[08:28:05] example the RBA and the ECB have already started to hike. But part of it is the implications for growth are starting to materialize
[08:28:17] and the anti-growth elements of this inflation are starting to present themselves. And so as we look at then what this what this most recent price action seems to
[08:28:32] what we find is we've gotten to a place where the market is convinced that rate where the market is convinced that rate hikes are coming, a cumulative 84% uh chance that we get a hike by September, a near certainty by October, almost 94%.
[08:28:49] Come December, we're looking at a significant second hike. It starts becoming better than even odds by the middle of next year. That's a little bit less hawkish now
[08:29:05] than it was a day or two ago, comporting with what we just saw in the bonds. You with what we just saw in the bonds. You can see that here.
[08:29:18] price action we see in stocks and with the price action we see in the US dollar the price action we see in the US dollar as well as gold, we start to see well maybe the market is already watching a situation where the ramp up
[08:29:35] in inflation is going to create demand destruction as it has in Europe and And maybe we are already in a place where that is a cyclical risk where rate where that is a cyclical risk where rate hike expectations are peaking and
[08:29:50] perhaps we're going to get back to a conversation about rate cuts but not in conversation about rate cuts but not in that good risk on way more in that that good risk on way more in that growth threat recession way. And so uh
[08:30:04] as far as exposure is concerned u I'm still short gold long the dollar against uh the major currencies and I'm long it against the Swiss Frank here in my spot account as well. Short baseline risk uh sentiment. short
[08:30:22] call verticals in uh the NASDAQ via the Q's S&P via uh the SPY ETF and looking at the driver of inflation here uh other than
[08:30:34] oil natural gas that's holding up a little bit better. So, still a little little bit better. So, still a little bit long there, but largely looking for bit long there, but largely looking for this to become a situation where
[08:30:47] the story is transforming and starting to look at the long side of the bonds. I still have a little bit left in uh in puts at the middle of the curve, but I
[08:30:59] have likewise started to put on something uh on the long side of the long end because we could be getting to a place where this starts being a a place where this starts being a cyclical issue and a recession risk.
[08:31:13] cyclical issue and a recession risk. And that is macro money for today. As And that is macro money for today. As ever, we are here right after overtime. Veio, looking at the Wall Street close and where things may go there from. I'm
[08:31:25] also writing for the news and insights portion of tasty.com and commenting at Ilia Spivac on former Twitter and on Blue Sky. If you're watching this on YouTube, like and subscribe. Macro Money returns tomorrow. Happy trading.
[08:32:06] show. My name is Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler.