[00:10] Hello Dy Nation. Welcome to the show. It's Tuesday, July 7th, and the markets are flat for now. But join us on the YouTube chat. We are streaming live there. Just pop over to the Tasty Live channel. You can see that live video.
[00:22] along the righthand side chat, and we will get to them as the morning goes on. Uh my name is Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler. And Jamal, we've got uh Jamal Chandler. And Jamal, we've got uh potentially a doozy of a day because
[00:37] potentially a doozy of a day because everyone that's uh a US citizen that was [laughter] rooting for the US of A in the World Cup just might be a little maybe the button clicks a little bit less and we see a lower volume today.
[00:51] >> You know, I never felt more American than last night. And by that I mean amidst the loss, I meant we were so brash yesterday, bro. We just like we just assumed we were going to win. Like it's not even our sport. You know what
[01:04] I'm saying? Like [laughter] >> I I could I couldn't name more than three guys in a [laughter] team. >> Exactly. It's not even our sport and >> Yeah. [laughter] >> We just assume we're going to win.
[01:16] >> I mean, look, I like I usually say in these situations, it was no cheating. So looked actually the one thing I looked older are they than us because they just looked stronger like they just seemed
[01:29] pushing our dudes around a little bit. And um well as we do these days I asked an AI agent and it gave me the answer and it said our average age was like 26.4 and their average age was like 28 and a half to 29.
[01:42] >> So I think that factored in. It seemed like to me yesterday again I I know a definitely know a lot about sports and aggression and you could just tell they were just like they they were they have a little older presence and it showed
[01:55] yesterday. So, man, it was rough. I mean, not only that, you know, like not only to lose, but then have like Christian Pulis just leave out the game tough. It's tough. >> Classic.
[02:07] >> How about uh how about Seattle? I can't believe they got multiple games. I >> to get that done. >> Yeah, I don't I but I was there when they had the first one and it actually is a really good viewing experience
[02:19] because they have >> they had a entire stadium like watch area where there's these steps that go up to uh the market and then come back >> Nice. >> So they had thousands of people there.
[02:34] they probably could just house a ton of people relative to other cities. Yeah. cuz it's all just on the waterfront. >> Yeah. No, I mean that that had to be beautiful viewing. Um yeah, I'm not sure. I did see like a chart yesterday.
[02:47] Somebody posted it must have been Twitter and I saw something about just how well uh the economies the local economies where they have these games Chicago. We didn't have it. We we talked about that yesterday, but it was Seattle
[03:01] all of them. Like just the chart that I saw and just like how how it benefited went really well there. Overall, it's been put It looks like it was really >> Um, it's been great. But, yeah, now I don't know.
[03:15] rooting for France, >> I guess. >> I guess, you know, like I don't know. I'm trying to think. I I mean, I'm not have captured other people's hearts. That's kind of a dope story. Um, for Fr.
[03:31] Mbappe. So, I guess that's why I say France first comes to mind. But, >> yeah, I'm going to I'm going to let the narrative develop, but uh Gus will actually be in here in a little bit and he will will have an opinion.
[03:47] >> I'm sure he will. Yeah, speaking of >> he's deep in the numbers. >> Deep in the numbers. That Yeah, he is for sure. Um yeah, we do have a bunch of up with a math check in a little while. We have Chris with a signal versus
[04:01] noise. I believe he's going to come and talk to us about uh some Dell and AMD trades that we've seen recently. Liz is going to come and talk about overnight moves. Uh you mentioned Gus, excuse me. Gus coming in first. Her son just just
[04:13] [laughter] I'm going to keep that going. I'm not even going to Gus is going to be coming in with morning movers and then Liz will come in with overnight moves and then we will uh get to the opening bell of course. Then we have a guest uh
[04:25] Ben Sturgil, CEO of Smart Data Trading, come by the show. We got Trades with TP. We got Tim Knight with his charts. We got Julia with some research pieces. So, uh um just uh I'm sure that's going to end up being a good one. We got Errol
[04:39] also stopping by from the floor and talking about trading ranges that he's seeing. And uh yeah, we got a great show ahead. So, please check it all out. Yeah, it's going to be glorious. It's going to be glorious. Uh futures markets
[04:53] Everything's within 1% to the upside. Crude oil up 3/4 of a percent. Uh gold kind of chopping flat downside moves. Natty gas. Uh NASDAQ down 1% almost
[05:07] which is interesting considering the E- minis are flat. But that's what we talked about yesterday with Kevin from the NASDAQ is the NASDAQ is so these whoopy moves where it could be disconnected from the E- minis when you
[05:20] have sector bounces in different directions with the uh much more sector to that end, I was actually thinking last night, um, and I know this about, uh, the chart that he put up. Remember the one he put up VXN over VIX
[05:36] >> and how other comparable times are like 2017 and then sure enough, yesterday volatility environment. We just >> continue to trend higher. It does. It's either that or it's a, you know, I don't think the crash is coming, but I think
[05:50] we're at a very low vol environment and correlation is like four and, you know, VIX is 15. VIX is 87. I just noticed that yesterday towards the end of the that yesterday towards the end of the day. I didn't even notice that. So,
[06:02] I think it might be time to take some short V off a little bit. >> Yeah, I mean it's at the bottom of the barrel VIX specifically. Uh but yeah, I think right now we're kind of in this lull period, but it feels like there's
[06:17] nothing in the general market that's really spooky to this market. >> Agreed. uh assuming earnings go well in a couple weeks here and nothing crazy happens and the Fed uh decision coming
[06:32] happens and the Fed uh decision coming up goes as planned or as expected. Uh yeah, it just feels like we're in this lull, summer lull. But speaking of the lull, summer lull. But speaking of the NASDAQ, did you catch what Jim Kramer
[06:44] not. >> Well, I got something for you and uh we're going to kick it off with his math check in just a second.
[07:04] Jim Kramer blamed SpaceX's entry into the NASDAQ 100. If index funds had to buy SpaceX and sell existing names to rebalance, that could have created billions of mechanical flows. Could that pressure spill into today's open?
[07:17] Possibly. But it probably wasn't the only driver. profit taking, options positioning, and weaker risk sentiment likely added to the move. If the NASDAQ rebounds quickly at the open, that would point to a flow driven sell-off, not a
[07:29] fundamental one. So, I asked you this question. Uh, do you think that the late question. Uh, do you think that the late selloff in the NASDAQ could have been a result of SpaceX >> yesterday? I mean, I didn't realize we
[07:45] sold off [laughter] was like a whole hundred points in the NASDAQ. I I I don't know, man. I think it's a stretch. I I I I don't I don't I didn't see that kind of movement. I would say it's not to say that it didn't happen underneath
[07:59] kind of movement. >> I I do think it's um at some point in time, I do think just from the sheer size of SpaceX, maybe it will have an effect on on the industry at some point, but I didn't notice that yesterday.
[08:12] but I didn't notice that yesterday. >> No. Yeah. I I I think it was really just reaching at straws. Like to your point, it could have been the the flows could have happened in a way that that created that uh micro selloff here, but still it
[08:26] that uh micro selloff here, but still it was not big enough to really get the attention of everyone that's paying attention to the markets. Um, and when you look at the difference between SpaceX and the NASDAQ, SpaceX right now
[08:38] is totally flat. uh NASDAQ is down a little bit, but I think when it's when it comes to these things, the market does a pretty good job of of smoothing it out so that there is no arbitrage
[08:51] >> I don't know. Let's look at a one minute chart. I mean, I now I want to see this this one minute chart of SpaceX or that either one. NASDAQ, I don't know. >> Yeah. I mean, it was right at the end of the day yesterday. Uh if we look at
[09:06] sixth and we zoom and we >> Yeah, right. There's a close, the big big red bar there. That's the close. >> There you go. Uh, so yeah, I think it's it's just a matter of general movement. >> Oh, uh, wait, after the close all the
[09:20] way overnight? I don't know about that. I mean, you're talking about from from there. Yeah, that move. >> Y >> I I still don't think so. I'm going to say no. No.
[09:32] >> Yeah, I don't think the move was big enough. And it's not the continuation. >> What did SpaceX do across that same time period? >> A little buy into the day. >> There's a little buy in the end day. I
[09:46] >> Little dippy do a little rally. But yeah, I think the volatility So the my I think the point is the volatility was expected. The SpaceX volatility like even this rally like sure this this happened technically speaking, but this
[10:01] is a fivepoint rally. >> We're looking at uh a 10 point 11 point range for the rest of the week. We're looking at 17 points for the end of next week. So this is expected movement like daytoday two to three points, three to
[10:15] four points, five points in SpaceX. Like that's that's expected based on the current implied volatility. Um, so again, I think sometimes you you have there's a little bit of weight to it, but I don't think it's anything that uh
[10:30] is groundbreaking in terms of market manipulation, arbitrage opportunities, those types of things because the the market really does do a good job of smoothing out like last when was the last time you saw a dividend removed
[10:42] from a stock price? >> It's like it's it's almost impossible to >> It does. It has to be a really huge one for it to be noticeable, >> right? >> And uh there has to be no market
[10:55] the thing is like yes, this thing could if there was a flat market and nobody would have seen something with SpaceX and NASDAQ, but because the markets are constantly moving, it kind of clouds the these sort of events.
[11:10] >> Yeah, like this kind of event. And I think a dividend is a really good uh argument in the same light where if there's a 50-cent dividend, a dollar the stock price, but the stock price is still chopping. So, you just don't see
[11:23] known that it's coming. And again, I mean, the whole world knew that SpaceX yeah, I mean, you do see the buy program in SpaceX, but I don't see the And again, that I I we're talking this was the end of the day. So again, what
[11:37] we saw saw was from uh 2:40 p.m. Central time to 3, there was a buy program in SpaceX. I didn't see a corresponding sizable move in the NASDAQ. But again, There wasn't any arbitrage opportunity. I mean, basically, if you bought SpaceX
[11:51] at 155 and change yesterday, then you just wrote it. You were lucky to and everybody was in there trying to buy it. This is just classic buy and and um buy and sell movement that you see. I mean, it's it's it's classic market related
[12:04] I would say. >> Yeah. And uh the arbitrage opportunities are really few and far between. You you have to basically time it perfectly. Like that's the that's the thing. If you bought SpaceX thinking it was going to
[12:18] rally because of the inclusion, but you bought it at 162, you actually are down, which >> I'm sure a lot of >> one of yesterday's highs. So yeah, I think it's it's tough it's tough to pin
[12:30] it all on that, but uh definitely interesting to see the movement that we're seeing today, but still we're chopping around. Anything within 1% is basically expected. So nothing too crazy in terms of movement that's uh pushing
[12:43] >> I I think this chart shows exactly that. This chart shows like everybody was the sellers came and boom, smashed them. They smashed them all the way down to like, "Okay, what are they going to buy at some point? Are they going to buy?
[12:56] it? Oh. Oh, they're buying it. They're you see that. >> Yeah. But we'll see what happens to the rest of the market here. Still got about 45 minutes and uh before the the equity
[13:10] markets open and the NASDAQ is down a little bit more than the E- Minis right now. Uh8 percentage points here, down 230 points. Bitcoin and everything else kind of flat, chopping around. Uh we
[13:22] don't have too much in terms of earnings left. >> No, we don't. No, this is really truly that low period like you mentioned. Um it it uh we're right before earnings. There's well, we got a solid a little
[13:36] under 10 days here and so um I don't know about you, but yesterday I decided to go out and buy a consumer a couple of consumer staple things. Get some uh diagonals and a couple of names. Just looking at yesterday was interesting.
[13:48] seeing how tech was was uh moving, chips were moving, a lot of those names were dove in before, Walmart's, Costco, but yesterday I decided to add to that um yesterday I decided to add to that um some diagonals and uh Colgate Palm
[14:03] some diagonals and uh Colgate Palm Olive, um Proctor and Gamble and McDonald's >> and Target. It's another one. Yeah. >> uh September to buy September, sell August. See how it works out. I truly
[14:18] semis are going to rotate back into those type of names. >> I mean, we've seen it before. We'll see it again. The rotation is the rotation is real. It's just a matter of time. It's hard to time them, but when you see
[14:32] >> uh maybe you start to take take a shot down >> and all these trades were under $1,000. I mean, like the you know, the Colgate was was $300. Uh Proctor and Gamble 700,
[14:46] was was $300. Uh Proctor and Gamble 700, McDonald's 800. So, uh Target 700. So, that price point. >> Yeah. Uh we do have a guest on the line. The first guest of the day, always our favorite guest, Sir Chris Veio, how you
[15:01] favorite guest, Sir Chris Veio, how you doing? >> It might be you. It might It might be us. It might not be you. [laughter] us. It might not be you. [laughter] >> It's not me. It's See, that's what he
[15:16] the time when he was dating. Look, it's not me. [laughter] you now. >> Oh, well that's good. Well, yeah. I said >> Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we did. Yeah. It's
[15:30] >> Yes. Right. >> The Austin Powers The Austin Powers Formation making its way through the Midwest. [laughter] >> The Austin Powers Formation. is actually one of the uh big big things I think in
[15:43] Good. >> I don't know if it was I don't know if but it's definitely >> all in my for you now. >> No one has any idea what we're discussing and we're going to leave no
[15:56] audience. [laughter] >> I think they can read between the lines. listening. >> There's storms coming on Wednesday. What I mean everybody seemed probably look at the weather. Take a look.
[16:09] >> Yep. >> Chris, what are you doing today? >> I am with my own downpour. >> How are you doing from yesterday as a >> How are you doing from yesterday as a result of yesterday's situation?
[16:22] >> Um, I reconsidering my personality if my co-workers think I'm doing like a gopher thing in Bill Murray uh ground uh Catty Shack. But outside of that, what else is there to be concerned
[16:34] about? Well, I mean, see, you're so you're still so basking in the Knicks lost yesterday. You not even >> I don't care at all. I don't care. I don't care at all. >> Oh, I got my 100redyear storm. I'm good.
[16:50] >> Yeah. Who Who's the goalie? Tim uh R 38 years old. I mean, look, there's the reality of of soccer in America is our best best athletes go to basketball, football, baseball, hockey, and then maybe soccer. So, you know, this is
[17:05] >> You know what was funny last night is uh we were watching Lil TV afterwards and I US commercials that I didn't even know existed. It's like they got to get them all out the system now [laughter] cuz the dudes aren't playing no more.
[17:19] >> Kind of funny. >> Well, there's always next time. >> It's like when you're watching NCAA and they're showing commercials and I commercials of like dudes that aren't playing anymore. It's kind of awkward.
[17:32] >> they did that in the the Knicks Hawk series because you you have like uh Jose Alvarado and Jaylen Brunson and Cat in a I think a T-Mobile commercial and so they're like, "Oh jeez, better better get these all out there right now before
[17:45] >> Little do they know. >> It's a thing. >> Anyway, uh you know, you guys were just talking about semiconductors here on the dip. You know, most of these names, STX, Micron, Western Digital, they're they're
[17:57] all down around 20 25% from their highs. So, there has been a meaningful one of the reasons why we're talking about that this morning is because we had Samsung earnings last night and they [clears throat] were very good, but as
[18:10] were higher in guidance. They were higher on on on revenue margins. I mean, metrics are going up, but they're also saying they're going to have to spend a lot more money moving forward to meet the demand, which is that's the cure for
[18:24] high prices. High prices invite higher prices which invite more capital which invite more supply which ultimately bring about those lower prices. So um here in the broader market right now though. Uh options traders are now the
[18:38] been in 5 and a half years. The the total put call ratio just collapsed to 0.64 which is basically saying that no one's everyone is bullish right now. So
[18:50] behavior. Um, every single pullback we've seen has basically been treated like a gift at this point. So, we've been talking about perhaps the Trump bringing this up right now? Trump mentioned Dell again yesterday. Did you
[19:05] shouted out, "Everyone should buy a Dell." Dell shares were up 6.5%. Interesting. But, [clears throat] you know, a few days before we get our trump call the top, which is, I know, the whole point of this options activity,
[19:21] signal versus noise segment here. August 21st, 420 puts the premium 2.72 million spent with an IV of 77%, which uh when bought at the ass, 94% of the flow was hitting the ass side. So, this was not um you know, just a simple bearish bet
[19:35] looking to pay up for downside in a stock that has obviously a lot of the zeitgeist wrapped around it right now thanks to the president's attention. U we have another AMD trade here June 30th tape showing 3.77 million in AMD July
[19:49] 2nd 557 and a half puts with IV at 60 excuse me 86% and 75% of the trade ripped back to all-time highs yesterday we know that it's been sagging back with the rest of the space here today. Uh, we know that the company joined the Trump
[20:04] contribution for employees kids. And which, by the way, can I take an aside here? If you are, if you have a young child who's eligible for the Trump you're not doing it. Given how much money you can contribute and how it gets
[20:17] converted into a IRA, Roth IRA conversion applicable at 18. If you if years, your kids are basically going to have their retirement taken care of. So, uh, as an aside, definitely save and invest. Um I I take a step back here
[20:32] unusual options activity right now on the tape. Jamal, um whether or not it's it's not whether or not it's tied to any of what Trump is saying is another story here. I'm going to take a step back and say these are small potatoes. These
[20:47] seen in major trades in the past when Intel had that $240 million call by a actually doing fairly well right now. M >> uh these are people [clears throat] who directional bet looking for a very specific outcome
[21:03] after we've seen this correction in some of the chip stocks. So yeah, uh it are down big because of the run that they've been on over the course of this they've been on over the course of this year. But you know in in technicians
[21:15] terms they are in bare markets right now having collapsed more than 20% from their highs. I mean, uh, again, these are mostly at the closer to the asked, uh, which tells you that the the aggressive trader is
[21:28] a buyer and a seller, but the aggressive trader is closer to the ask. Therefore, uh, you can tell it's a that sentiment is is wanting to buy those puts. And, People are going to take stabs at these, whether it's August, whether it's out to
[21:43] trades that we've been talking now. And again, like you said, these are pretty sentiment. There are people out there who are looking for the moment when we start to fade in these names. Um, I mean, heck, I I'm thinking about it. Uh,
[21:57] I was just talking with Mike. This is an overall market thing, but >> correlation is very, very low right now and VIX is low and VIX is low and just mean that there's going to be a market blowout. But, um, I mean, the the lower
[22:11] we get, the more explosive the move higher comes for those things. and the comes. So, I can see why people are starting to look at these. I still say these are very expensive options to be buying though, like buying Dell, buying
[22:24] buying uh, you know, AMD. I mean, buying put options in there are very expensive. >> There's better ways to do this, I think. Um, but you know, if you got deep >> Could I uh >> That's fair.
[22:37] >> You mentioned correlations in the market falling. Can I uh can I bring you back to the last time that the core 1 M index was sitting at 4% or it's actually 3.99% >> You have to go back to July 24. >> Okay.
[22:50] significant pullback. I'm not saying it's going to happen again here, but July 24 rolls around from that mid July high to the August 5th trrow when we had >> Oh, last year. >> Uh two years ago, two summers ago. Um,
[23:06] NASDAQ goes 15% down from its high in the span of like two and a half weeks. again, but if you start to see a little bearish price action gain traction here, >> No doubt. But that's why you buy those puts.
[23:19] environments where if something bad happens, it could cascade very quickly. >> Yes, for sure. Cuz we just talk about we always talk about how crowded this trade is. That's always the concern. I'm leaning I'm bullish, too. Hell, I'm If
[23:32] be ugly for my book. I can tell you right now. But that that's why we think about how crowded this trade is because if we do have those days, um it it could be ugly. But I also hope and I've seen so far a lot of times when we have the
[23:47] pullback in the chips, it's flowed into consumer staples. So hopefully that's >> Yeah, I think the rotation >> selling chips to buy chips. Oo, >> There you go. Yeah, I think the rotation uh is certainly alive and well. And then
[24:02] uh to your point, Chris, volatility futures are still in a pretty steep contango here. So, I like to look at that and just let that be my guiding buying the dip here. But, if you're looking for downside hedges, they're
[24:15] they are relatively cheap. Uh especially in like uh NDX or S&P if you make them a little a little more narrow. Um but yeah, Chris, appreciate your time. I'm
[24:27] uh I'm happy that you are unaffected by the football loss, but yeah, we've got the Tasty Live channel. So, join us on the YouTube channel. Let us know what Chris, we'll see you a little bit later. And uh we're going to take a quick 90
[24:43] second break. You're watching Tasty Live,
[24:58] >> When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned
[25:12] into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Ooh, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,
[25:27] defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're [music] seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner.
[25:39] Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.
[25:55] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. But what do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers, but most
[26:08] importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with simple [music] and clear guidelines and reference points. We'll see you guys reference points. We'll see you guys there.
[26:54] show. My name is Mike and the markets are down a little bit here. E- mini down 11, NASDAQ down 310. We've got some early movers to the downside, early movers to the downside, specifically those semis, SMH down quite
[27:07] a bit from yesterday's high. Uh, and I'm sure we've got plenty of trade ideas uh, in the YouTube chat and elsewhere for some of these products that are taking a beating here in the early morning session. But I also have Gus in the room
[27:22] you doing? >> Good. Always good. Yeah, we got we got on this morning. Uh, we got things things in Asia that are moving us. Uh, we got things domestically that are moving us. It's uh, yeah, it's it's an
[27:35] think with with Samsung which we were just discussing off air. Uh US memory stocks are set to open lower after Samsung is is moving down. Uh closed 7% lower at the end of the day yesterday. Obviously that's Korean markets not not
[27:49] align with American markets. Uh they posted an 1800% jump in profit but extremely high capex which has scared investors a little bit. Uh all these memory stocks I've I've been saying for months now it's really hard for these
[28:02] that's really going to propel them that much higher. It feels like when you do talking about being up 20, 40x year-over-year right now, what can you really do in earnings that would blow people away so much that you can take a
[28:16] further gap up? Samsung answering that question for us again today. An 1800% to prop their shares up after this incredible run that they've been on. Uh, you're a Samsung executive right now. You say we're up we we've increased our
[28:30] market says, "Yeah, but you're spending too much money. Let's calm down. Uh so interesting interesting spot for Samsung and uh that is going to have a tangible impact on US memory stocks. All these memory stocks kind of move as a
[28:43] unit. I often talk about how frustrating it must be to be an executive at Micron that's going on at your company and then you also got to worry about what SanDisk your stock's going to come tumbling down as well. Uh and Samsung SKH Highix also
[28:56] can can play into that equation from across the pond. >> That is a good point. I mean, you talk about how these companies are very sorry, if one sneezes, the other catches a cold. And so, like, there is that
[29:09] there's always that you have to pay attention. But yeah, 18,000 1,800%, excuse me, jump in and what revenue >> uh in in profit. >> man. How how is it not just completely going to the moon today? Just talking to
[29:23] Mike about how I saw their uh their employees are I think on average are been a good year, >> I would imagine. I mean, yeah, I I I I've joked about that a lot, too. Like, you're just a a random, you know, say
[29:37] SanDisk employee and you've just been chipping along making SD cards this got your little stock purchase program and got a few hundred shares and then suddenly the shares go from $40 to $2,000 what in what feels like overnight
[29:49] sitting on. So, yeah, good day, good time to be an employee in one of those >> Absolutely. And yeah, a lot of these companies are down pretty bad uh this companies are down pretty bad uh this morning. AMD down 20 points, Micron down
[30:03] morning. AMD down 20 points, Micron down 50 points, Dell down 11, SanDisk down 100 points. So, we're seeing a pretty broad sell-off here. SMH down 20 points also, which is which is a pretty big move all things considered when you look
[30:17] the week here. >> Yeah, I wanted the I wanted the Dell shorts yesterday and I'm kicking myself for for not taking them. They they moved up because Trump said, uh, it's a great time to buy a Dell. And I I am the
[30:29] that man when he tells you it's time to buy a stock. He he gives you the circumstance, he said that while standing in the room right next to the Dell CEO who just gave $6 billion to the Trump accounts, [laughter] so I don't
[30:42] know that he necessarily had insidefo. Seems like he was just throwing his >> That is funny. >> The press, man. Press. He's a trip. He's a trip. Uh beyond the uh the move in Samsung, Rivian is taking a tumble this
[30:57] morning. I talked about Rivian on air with uh Chris and Liz last Thursday going to talk about them because they're moving down. Uh they did beat revenue expectations at earnings. Expectations were 1.45. They came in at 1.56. So
[31:13] slight beat there. However, they are going to sell 75 million new shares, but that is not an insignificant number of new shares entering the market. Uh, and obviously the public seeing that as as dilution risk, Rivian shares
[31:26] tumbling. I do see Rivian bulls on Twitter saying that this is a a very bullish thing for Rivian to do and you shouldn't fear the dilution. Uh, but the value of each share. We're seeing them open about 10% lower headed into
[31:41] today. I hope nobody who uh who followed me into the Rivian shorts on Monday or on sorry last Friday has panic sold their position because we are we are looking good right now. I mean, this happens. This happens in names like this
[31:53] that are um kind of struggling and then they have a big move and then boom, like secondary comes, you know, like offering. It's like happens so so more on and on, but we've just we've been in this this channel from like 13, 14 up to
[32:08] this this channel from like 13, 14 up to like 1920 for 18 months now. We Rivian it's it's incredible. Every single time it tests these highs, it just comes put the shorts on here. After that last run up, I put shorts on. that worked out
[32:21] as well. If Rivian touches 18 until proven otherwise, this is a brain deadad it on. >> Yeah, these are the charts you you love to see, especially for two-sided action, bulls, bears, neutral traders. They you
[32:35] all have an opportunity to uh make some money in this kind of chart. and buy. >> Yes, [laughter] exactly. You could Yes, the other way as well. Yeah, it's just it's just decisive bounces, fast moves.
[32:49] It's great. Um, outside of uh in ter stories that market, but but are interesting here, uh, Google has thrown $468 million at a European nuclear fusion startup called Proxima. Uh, they are looking to get
[33:04] Proxima says that they will have a nuclear fusion reactor running by. Any guesses? >> Uh, the end of summer [laughter]
[33:16] >> when it'll be running by. >> Yeah. Uh, >> Yeah. Okay. Okay. Pretty good. I I heard a correct guess in my ear as well. Early 2030s is what they're is what they're saying here. Leaving themselves lots of
[33:29] room. So, what are we're talking 4 to 8 years? Early 2030s. Does that mean 2037? We we'll see what happens. But, uh, yes, Google is confident enough to to throw half a billion dollars at them. Uh, which I suppose for an AI company in
[33:42] 2026 is pennies pretty much. [laughter] >> Sure, you can have $500 million. Um I'm company. We we could you just need to say the right things in one boardroom. >> Uh but yeah they are doing uh stellarator fusion technology
[33:58] >> which is above my pay grade to to explain I don't know ask to explain stellarator fusion technology to you. >> The $500 million phrase right there. phrases that we need to get these investments.
[34:10] >> Um we also have Alibaba banning Anthropic. uh they are concerned that Anthropic has uh quote backdoor intelligence risks end quote. So we have we've seen lots of US companies ban DeepSeek and the Chinese AI saying that
[34:24] are going to let out internal information and now Alibaba is going to going to move their chest piece and say no you your your stuff is has backdoor no you your your stuff is has backdoor risks. So uh yeah the the the the
[34:37] States and China just continues to wage on here. Uh, I don't know that this Anthropic's bottom line. Obviously, Alibaba is a large company, but seems millions and millions of users at this point. You're
[34:51] time, man. And you know what? I mean, they're absolutely right. I mean, there's no doubt that there's any backdoor intelligence. There's for sure can understand why they wouldn't do it. That said, I um, you know, Alibaba being
[35:05] on these lows, we were asked about that the other day. just staying away from the Chinese names. Not really. I don't care. Even though this chart looks like the lows of what we saw with Rivian, it's probably something decent to get
[35:17] long, but I'm not doing it. >> Yeah, I agree. I you know, like you said, it's an attractive chart, but it you got to show me something. I I don't reasons that we've been sliding either. Are we really going to put in two,
[35:30] know that there's too much downside left in it, but you know, I I just I have no conviction about about Alibaba or really >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I feel like I feel like Baba uh is
[35:43] just one of those products where it should have 100% IV at all times. Like there's so much there's so much political risk with these products that the 50% IV is just too low. like there's not enough premium here to sell if
[35:57] not enough premium here to sell if you're doing uh undefiners trades or for you and you're doing it, that's great. But like if I'm going to get there's political tension, there's political risk, I want to see 80, 90,
[36:12] >> Oh yeah. >> Because we have so many other products like that that offer that that don't have the same political risk. when you talk about political risk. if something happens in China, Alibaba is
[36:25] is the name that people go to even even when these these ETFs exist and things, it's like Alibaba is China in a in a stock market context. It's this is this for that country. Uh yeah, with so much overhead political risk, it's it's hard
[36:39] >> Yeah. Do you have another >> um I was I was going to just I'll rattle >> Yeah, I I'll rattle off five here real quick just because uh Jim Jim Kramer has given out uh five stocks that he says you need to buy during this market
[36:52] all of these on everybody's radar, whether you interpret that as bullish or bearish is is up to you. But the five R Johnson and Johnson, PepsiCo, Starbucks, Constellation Brand, I actually don't disagree with [laughter]
[37:07] >> Oh, damn. I was Hey, I was ready to lay into it. I actually do not disagree with him. And the reason he is saying it is because of the rotation that we've seen happen at times. He's actually right on that. I will I will give him that. Jim
[37:21] Kramer, Jamal Chandler, these these JC initials >> No, >> no, but he's saying that because if you look at yesterday and you see the heat map of yesterday, chips were up and
[37:35] those names were down. Uh you you see it. I mean, Target, TJX, uh Johnson and Johnson, Starbucks, like those names are down yesterday and we've seen the other what happens today. And I won't be shocked. It's exactly what's going to
[37:48] if this day continues the way it is with SPOS is down, NASDAQ is down. What's up? Russell 2000's up, Dow is up. So, you can bet your bottom dollar that some of going to be positive today. >> Yeah, almost all these that I'm pulling
[38:01] >> Yeah, almost all these that I'm pulling up are positive pre-market at least a little bit. So, yeah, craziness. Uh, >> but see, that's the thing, guys. We're dude that been at CNBC forever is telling you. We know what we're talking
[38:15] >> Have you seen the inverse Kramer fund? >> Yeah, right. [laughter] >> it doesn't exist anymore. >> Uh, no, I think the the sector rotation uh is a sharp play for sure. U especially if the the semis continue to
[38:30] show weakness like we're seeing now. And we're seeing the precursor here with the Dow and the Russell up uh at least half of what the NASDAQ is selling off right of what the NASDAQ is selling off right now. So, I like it. Uh well, Gus,
[38:43] now. So, I like it. Uh well, Gus, appreciate you as always and uh keep bringing the heat, you know, bring those bring those those tickers, those flaming tickers that we can take a look at. Uh but yeah, I think the products we looked
[38:55] at today, there's always going to be opportunities and uh Rivian, an interesting short and I hope that I hope that works out for you and fattens the that works out for you and fattens the pocket. But yeah, we uh we've got E-
[39:07] Minis down 11, NASDAQ down 300, and uh we're going to see what the rest of the quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[41:23] hey, [music] Everybody with Jamal. Join us on the YouTube channel if you will. We've got Tasty
[41:38] your trade ideas, questions along the righth hand side chat. E- mini is down righth hand side chat. E- mini is down 12. NASDAQ down 300. Liz is on the line. And Liz, I have to confess, I'm done with Zero Iron Condors. I am only doing
[41:51] Super Bowls from here on out. >> They just they hit so quickly and the iron condors I've been struggling with with these big market moves to the >> I gota tell you, you know, I mean, I'm like I said, I'm merging everything
[42:03] but I'm merging everything together, but I think I'm going to I'm I'm I'm learning from everyone that I'm on the show with. During July, during the month of July, in honor of Mike and Chris Beckio, I'm doing I'm doing Super Bowls.
[42:17] The second we get out of July, I'm going back to Iron Condors. >> Yeah, >> I'm learning from everyone that I see [laughter] believe you're on >> Well, Jamal's Jamal's fully aligned with
[42:31] Jim Kramer today. So, >> that is pretty funny. I um Yeah, Jamal. Jim Kramer. >> Shocking. Shocking. >> I mean, uh I don't know why we're the only ones to see it. I mean, this is the
[42:45] >> if you just pull up the heat map every day, you can see the reds and the greens and it just shift around. I mean, that's what's been happening, right? Um, and There's going to be a day when it's all red. Doesn't matter what your long,
[42:58] >> but right now there's been the rotation. I actually love that there's a rotation. to trade. >> Well, that's why nothing's really falling because as some as one rises, another one falls and so on and so
[43:10] seeing that rotation. So, I am saying shame on you. Kind of kidding. But, you know, I heard you bought Johnson and Johnson and Pepsi this morning, so I was like, [laughter] >> "Yeah, I bought yesterday. I bought um I
[43:22] bought Diagonals and McDonald's and Proctor and Gamble and um Colgate Palm >> Colgate Palm Olive. That's correct. >> Um and then, uh Target. Those are the
[43:35] ones that I did. And um I had a T-Mobile short put. I actually rolled that to August. It was July, but I decided to roll it to August. Why not? So, um, again, all of those trades are are essentially the, uh, the things that
[43:48] have gotten sold off when the semis have been up and you've seen some rotation today. But >> just wanted to get some exposure in some of those names. >> No, I mean, I I understand the rotation.
[44:01] Um, can I jump back into SPX? Oh, good. You're on SPX, Mike. So, kind of springboarding off of that. Like I said, I'm learning. I'm old. I'm learning new tricks. I'm a fan of how you set up I'm a fan of how you set up your Super Bowl.
[44:14] I'm a fan of Chris Veio's seasonality. But you know what? You want me to add like another layer onto what I'm doing for the SPX Super Bowls? >> So, I've been taking like I said, keep in mind I'm in charge of managing my
[44:26] Norway right now. So, he's going to be very happy with me when he comes home because I've been looking at the SIBO's most active on the S&P and I am structuring the Super Bowl around where the most active calls are, which is kind
[44:40] of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Like yesterday, there was 120,000 at one level and so I I put the strike one above it and and this was this was later in the day, but right now I kind of look at what's happening. The 7 7550 is where
[44:54] the most calls are going right now. So, if you structure your Super Bowl wrapped around 7550, making that either your long or your short strike, it's kind of from all sides. Good setup. Seasonality is there and there's lots of players in
[45:07] >> Yeah. >> Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. >> And yeah, I think for these I'm either selling a fivepoint wide spread to buy a wide to buy a 10-point wide. Just depends on the setup. Um, but this one
[45:21] I'm working for 25 cents for five point wide put spread to buy a a further out But again, if we get a 20 point reversal in the E- minis, it'll it'll appreciate
[45:33] enough to where you can get hit with a $200 win or something like that. put on yesterday and the ones you've been putting on, and I'm not saying leave them. I'm not advocating that by any stretch. I like that you have that
[45:45] all of them would have been full profit. >> Oh, yeah. They've all just moved >> Yeah. >> Well, because Christmas in July doesn't end until the 9th. [laughter] >> That's true. That's true.
[45:57] >> days left of it. >> These are really good revelations in terms of getting the speed that you're looking for in S&P with a really small >> uh for the zero days. So, and when you're when you pair these short puts
[46:12] literally, you just need a 10-point move. And we we see that all the time. 10-point moves in in both directions and you you get the speed that you're looking for without having to wait till the end of the day. U that's one of the
[46:25] sometimes frustrating things with the iron condors that I've been running into and now you're dealing with a marked loss until the end of the day or if there's a sell-off. So yeah. >> Right. So um I was going back and forth
[46:38] letting any cats out of the bag because well I mean we do call her the black cat but so she we were going back and forth on teams. So the [clears throat] the zero day DTE spx kind of was our forte because we got all that research from
[46:50] Jacob back in the day and she was asking if there was any credence cuz people have been asking this in the chat in closing whatever you do at noon and we Jacob did do a study a long time ago about saying when you're selling premium
[47:04] so it's not this for you know this is a different version of the trade you're it's a little bit different it's defined risk but there was [clears throat] a study that he placed a while ago saying that if you are just selling premium one
[47:16] or just the call spread. If you don't get the move you're looking for, close it at noon. And that was kind of interesting because if if it goes down, Mike, when you're looking at this, if if it goes down,
[47:28] the wing the prayer program hoping it's going to pop back up. But so it's much between your spread, your your put spread at noon, it it's going to be >> Yeah. >> So there was some there was some
[47:42] it's one-sided, if you're bullish, bullish, or if you're bearish bearish, >> I think a study like that just kind of lends to um less of a trend and more of
[47:55] um risk management, consistent risk management, you know what I mean? lends to. I mean, that's it's just like I think, you know, just kind of put on for this reason, it didn't happen. Close it this time. Close at
[48:07] going to be outliers where sometimes you close at the time and it's actually bad. But either way, I think it just smooths out if you continue to do the same thing, you know. >> For sure. For sure. But it is it's kind
[48:19] trade mechanically, which I can't, right? So I can I'm too emotional. I've Right. >> Wait, what? I thought you were pretty >> No, no, no. But watching watching my kids do this because they don't know
[48:34] what they're doing. They're crazy mechanical. So I say if I say you put GTC in, walk away, don't look at it again until noon, they don't because have the feelings that I have. >> That's fair.
[48:47] days when I'm like, "Okay, I I I can't put this on right now because we're would I put this on?" And I'm looking at their accounts and they've got it in. >> this [laughter] explains so much now when you're like, "What do you want to
[49:00] telling yourself. That's what you're thinking. You're like, "What do I want So, you can't put on like a trade and just like kind of sit and watch it and see like where it's going to like maybe kind of like like those call calendars
[49:12] but those call those um those butterflies that I was doing like one in SanDisk like you're you're like putting it on. You're like, I'm thinking I'm >> No, no, no. When I put on the trades like you're doing like those like what
[49:25] Mike's got on or your butterflies, you guys kill me cuz I'm going for all or nothing. Like [laughter] Mike with his 100 bucks. I was like, what are you doing? you need 500 [laughter] here.
[49:38] >> Yeah, it is it's a dangerous it is a dangerous game to play these Super >> But no, I do I do like the closing at at noon. Uh especially if you've got your credit spread in the money because the exttrinsic value remaining in the zero
[49:51] exttrinsic value remaining in the zero day from at noon helps you realize much o'clock. And we've shown one of the most interesting research pieces [clears throat] for the near-term zero day stuff that uh I've taken away is
[50:03] that >> if you have existing positions on between the the 2 and 3 p.m. final hour of the day, you take on a ton of risk. like a lot of your win rate and a lot of your losses come in that period of time,
[50:17] flow in the morning, tons of flow in the afternoon, and you can see the whippiness uh between, you know, 2 and 3:00, especially for iron condors. If the market that if the 2:30 buy button is is enabled, which we've seen many
[50:31] many times where the market just rips up 20 points at 2:30 p.m. Exactly. Uh that's not going to be good for your for your iron condors. So, just route them for credit. That's the biggest key, I think. And
[50:45] lot, but I see somebody in the chat asking again, what is a Super Bowl bull? explain it? >> Yeah. So, a Super Bowl uh is just the concept of selling something in if you're bullish, selling something like a
[50:59] put or a put spread, taking that credit, giving all of it up, and buying uh or I call spread with the premium you're collecting. So this this put spread if I
[51:11] just replicate the same strikes that I'm working giving me a $150 credit. So now I can go buy a call debit spread for less than a $150. I still have a net credit here and I have the ability to enter this trade for a credit and if the
[51:26] market rallies exit this trade for a credit because my short put uh that has a lot of value now if the market rips up 20 points will have a lot less value but my call spread that has less value now will increase in value. So you're kind
[51:40] of you're selling something to buy something else and they both move synergistically from a directional standpoint. So that's all the Super Bowl is. I I do this in SPX. I have one in SpaceX. I have a short put at 125 that I
[51:54] SpaceX. I have a short put at 125 that I sold for uh $3,75 and then I bought a 300 strike call in January for $300 less. So, this is another one Super Bowl setup short put to buy a call, but I collected $350 bucks. So, I have no risk
[52:08] in the middle. And if we get that explosion to the upside in SpaceX, this But I still again have no risk in the middle. So, it's a I it's not something I'm worried about. Um, same thing with with S&P. Five point wide uh in terms of
[52:22] risk, but a 10point wide long call spread. This is the one that Liz is money and take all that money. But I'm probably I'm probably going to >> listen. Let me talk Let me talk you into it, Mike. [laughter] So, let me talk you
[52:35] positioned perfectly with your setup above where where that that 755 755 is good profit potential here. Number three, it is only July 7th and Christmas
[52:47] three, it is only July 7th and Christmas pops as as as as Chris Kringle Chris has told me. Um Chris Veio are are through July 9th. Today is the day we let it go. >> today is the day. Huh? [laughter] >> Well, let me I'll tell you this. If the
[53:01] NASDAQ reverses, if we go from down 1% to flat, I will leave it on because I think that would be a precursor to a continuation to the upside in both the EMIS and NASDAQ. But if we see like if we see the NASDAQ chop around here and
[53:14] maybe we see the E- Minis flipping and flopping, uh, I might put in a profit do agree with you. The the nice thing about collecting a credit is that you don't have that neutral fear of like if this doesn't move, I'm going to lose
[53:29] this money. Um, which is the case for other debit trades where you need the technically don't need the directional move. I just need the market to not be down 30 points or 40 points and uh the spread will still expire out of the
[53:43] money and I'll be able to keep this credit. So that's the another kind of hidden importance of routing this thing for a 20 cent or 25cent credit or even a 10-cent credit 15cent credit. It's just that you have no neutral risk. If all
[53:57] you keep that small premium and you're good. Uh, it's a different feeling than if I were putting this on for a $200 debit where I know that as long as the today. That's not the case if you route it for a credit.
[54:12] and it's a it's a good product to trade. I kind of like what you're doing opening >> Yeah. Yeah. Cuz you get that potential for a chop. Like we we saw that yesterday. We saw an open like that and we were up 10 points and that that
[54:26] spread was up like 150 bucks right on the open like minutes after I placed it. >> it could be it could work in the opposite way but to your point earlier we have so much time in this zero day that even if the market sells off 20 30
[54:39] because there's so much extrinsic value in these options uh it's going to prevent you from realizing max loss just like a call debit spread if you get the lot of time left you're not going to realize max loss or max profit because
[54:54] all the exttrinsic value prevents you from seeing that. So, uh, yeah. >> Yeah. I do want to state for the record though, you can flip people can flip the cards over. I'm not saying sell this. I'm saying if you wanted to, you can,
[55:07] um, buy a put spread and finance it with a call spread. So, if somebody had the had the desire to be bearish or a quick pop down in the market, which happens too in S&P, that's just it is like you do get the pops down as well. That's
[55:20] you can flip the cards over and if it's set up like this, everybody can make >> Yeah. Yep. And in that case, you know, I think you consider like similar to what you talked about, like try to find areas that um maybe have high high strikes or
[55:33] just areas that are are really con uh I would say where the lot of the volume might be concentrated. In this case, it could be 7525. I mean, it could be 7500. when you do that too, you have to just determine,
[55:47] >> you [snorts] know, um on a conservative side, the expected move um in that area but are we really getting down to 7500 today right? Like you got to think helps you determine what expiration maybe you what expiration and what
[56:01] strikes use. There is kind of a dance I would say in putting these out. the tools in your in you know use all the clubs you've got in your bag to kind every time? No. Does it make me feel better knowing I got these levels? Yes.
[56:15] And Jamal I just looked at the SIBO's list. 7500 is the leading put on the >> But it's round numbers. It usually is round numbers. >> But something you said really stuck with me. Look, I mean, I I actually I don't
[56:27] get comfortable with a couple of clubs. I mean, now that you mentioned it, you three and my five anymore. I'm using the four hybrid right now. [laughter] So that's this is actually the four hybrid. Like ever since Mike gave me this club,
[56:39] man, these things I'm putting I put these things on quite a bit. These Super Bowls and Super Bears. I really had never I honestly never like structured a trade like this prior to us linking up. And like I structured quite a few of
[56:51] these. Um as I've mentioned, I got a bunch of super bulls in the the uh software names. Like it's the easiest way for me to play them and not go completely crazy because of the way that these names have traded. Like it's like
[57:03] very risky. I feel I got it a couple months out and I don't worry about it that much dayto-day. Well, the the other thing about structuring them a little you know, if you're going to buy if you're and I think Mike hit the head on
[57:15] spread, sometimes it's like watching paint dry, even if you get the move up, you structure it where you've got that put with it, you can get out a lot >> Mhm. 100%. >> So, yeah. Um, speaking of golf clubs, my
[57:31] girlfriend was like, "I need something. I need an iron, but I need to be like more distance because she only had a seven iron in her in her truncated bag." a five iron." So, we get we went to secondwing.com, my favorite website.
[57:44] >> I've gone to Global Golf uh Glo Global Global Golf, but I haven't been to that >> It's really good. I mean, you can you buy used clubs for 50% off, but they're structure it by the quality of the the
[57:56] >> So, we got it. She was smashing that club. I was like, I guess I got to buy a >> Yeah, it happens. >> I learned more about golf from doing had. And guess what? I used I'm branching an AI agent once again. I did
[58:11] things and it, you know, it asked me some questions and it really did help. Um, but yeah, it's it's dope. >> Yeah. Love it. >> Not yet. We need to though. We need to. >> We will.
[58:24] >> That's what I was going to say. I was going to see who who who's who can swing >> Oh, he probably can swing farther than I can. I'm not I'm trying I'm learn he's >> He said he's only on the four hybrid. [laughter]
[58:42] before this market opens. We got a minute left here. Can I get filled for a >> So, while while you're trying to get filled, I do think I mean just once mean nothing, but I think this market might turn around. We do have SpaceX
[58:57] heard it's only going to be a very I mean, as as big as it is, it's a very small portion of the NASDAQ 100 because something something about the volume. this. It's got to have x amount traded before they can put it in as as a larger
[59:10] percentage. If that's interesting, if that's even because Jamal, I heard you much. >> I mean I mean, not really. I mean, if >> yeah, >> you know, it just seemed like a normal
[59:23] after a day where we were mostly higher and eventually pulling back. I don't >> All right, they're not going to film me, so I'm going to crank this back up to 30 >> They don't feel me. This dude used >> in case we see a little sell off.
[59:37] Turkish dude, he had an accent. He was like, "They don't feel me. They don't like, "They don't feel me. They don't feel me on my trades Boos are down 11. I mean, I honestly I think we're going to I think we will. I
[59:52] out of the Super Bowl for a full full full profit. Let me see the delta on You got a 20% chance of keeping all of it. that's a that's a pretty strong chance. I like that. Oh god, here we go. It's
[01:00:06] ripping. Oh no. >> Oh, you did you miss it? You didn't get >> Swing and a miss. >> Swing and a miss. It happens. Oh, let's see here. Micron, how is snow up? Oh, you know what? Oh,
[01:00:21] That's what it's going to be. >> It is software. It is software update cyclical, if you are cyclical and yesterday you um went into all the Kramer stocks today, are you going to buy buy the semis that are down?
[01:00:37] >> Are you going to bullish in them? >> You were probably already long them. you're probably still already long those semis. and you're long those cyclicals. right now because that's exactly what I got going on. Um the McDonald's is
[01:00:52] working, the Proctor and Gamble is working, the Colgate is working, Walmart is working, Microsoft CRM is working. Netflix is also in that that that space getting lumped in with all of those things. On the days where semis are
[01:01:06] down, they come and they buy Netflix, they buy Walmart, they buy, you know, Microsoft and CRM. This this is a trip. This is not going to last, by the way. >> I hate Netflix. I hate Netflix. I hate Netflix. I will never trade it again.
[01:01:20] dude? Oh, from Is this from like a long time ago? Is this since the split in the >> No, it's from a long time ago. I got Netflix and I will never touch it again. It's one of those. I didn't know this. Let's unpack this. Uh, why is Netflix in
[01:01:36] the room right now? [laughter] >> Yeah, Netflix is all around me. >> It's just one of those stocks that I just don't think it's worth trading. I well, great. But, I mean, it did it didn't it didn't do it right. It split
[01:01:52] too. But, it did hurt me before the split, but I did watch it. [laughter] It >> did hurt me before the split. >> Yeah, I'm look I was looking at the micro NASDAQ here. Uh, still plenty of premium here. So, I'm just going to
[01:02:04] leave this. Let this thing decay even more. Um, >> yeah, same. I'm still in that same expiration. I haven't rolled yet. Yeah, I think we need some more more liquidity to fall into the next cycle before we
[01:02:16] make an adjustment here. But, uh, Microsoft up seven points right now. Uh, >> yeah, but yesterday was down seven >> cuz are up >> indeed. Here's another Super Bowl 20
[01:02:30] point wide put spread to buy a 40 point wide call spread. Uh, and we put this on 12 days ago. It's up 1,100 right now because you get that again you get that speed if you are directionally right. Uh >> you tell me you're up $1,100 on the
[01:02:44] >> No, cuz this one's this one's 45 days out. We had this one in we [laughter] >> like you were so confusing to me is not even funny. Like you're going to take got time on that thing. >> Longer term longer term stuff. You let
[01:02:58] >> You know how down Microsoft is? >> Yeah. Um, we've had this one on for a hundred days, the 500 strike calendar, but this is a really long-term one out in January, the long option, and then the short option is in September. And we
[01:03:11] bought that for 500 bucks when when Microsoft was at like 350, something >> The heck on Costco? I don't know. >> Are you going to continue to roll your short? >> Yes. If it Yeah, if we get to September,
[01:03:24] then yeah, I'll roll it to October, November, and I'll probably stop at November. to keep some distance between the short and long option. But I'm just I'm playing for this thing to go back to 500 before then. Uh in which case all of
[01:03:37] 500 before then. Uh in which case all of these trades will be uh nice win. But I was filled on that Super Bowl. It's not looking great right now. 7520 7510 put
[01:03:49] spread to buy the 7550 7560 call spread. So, I moved the call spread in a little bit and I widened the put spread, but uh still 20 cent credit. So, neutral in the middle and any kind of reversal, this thing will will be be good.
[01:04:05] sliding a little bit right now. >> Mhm. >> Yeah, >> for sure. >> Looks like What else are you looking at today? You have anything on your watch
[01:04:18] list? I was kind of looking I I wanted to dabble back in airlines and I kind of really high. All the airline stocks are pretty high right now just because gas is down a little bit. So I mean I know Jamal, do you still have your
[01:04:31] >> I still have it on. Yeah. Yep. >> So you you're down a little bit lower, I but I have lots of different um lots of different natural gas positions on. So I layer in a little bit more to that. And then my gold came off my bullish gold
[01:04:45] position. And like I said, I do like to collect a lot of characters and I was listening to Tim Knight yesterday. And while he's not bullish right now, he's long term is long-term bullish medals. Okay. So So
[01:04:59] haven't heard him say he's bullish about anything. I'm We're going to ask I'm >> Shake him down today. You shake him down because he's coming on this show. No, I don't want to put him in longer. He like he he told her he confided in her. So
[01:05:13] he's never said he's bullish about anything. Not even dogs. And he loves >> He does love dogs. No, but not not currently. He's like he said he doesn't pop right now, but he's long-term bullish metals. He thinks that metals
[01:05:27] are going to outperform stocks. Okay. Now, whether that means that stocks are combination. But because of that, I redabbled back into my gold position. I I always kind of have put spreads in there to just kind of continue to chip
[01:05:43] >> You He says that to you and you hear that like yes, it's time to get long the end is nigh. I'm getting long Things are over. We're all going to die is really what he
[01:05:57] >> exactly what he said. [laughter] I just similar the sunny side of it. >> But yeah, we're I'm long silver. I have 100 shares with a covered call there. And then uh yeah, gold futures. We were dabbling with some short put spreads
[01:06:10] there. Maybe I'll get back in into that as well. to be 4,200 now that is going to dance around. >> Yeah. Um but yeah, lots moving here. Even down 17, NASDAQ down 400. The Dow
[01:06:24] is the only one that is green right now, interestingly enough. Kudos to you with interestingly enough. Kudos to you with your call diagonal buys sector rotation. asking in the chat if you've ever [laughter] seen uh myself and and Kramer
[01:06:38] >> Not really. No, >> not coincidence. I think not. We'll see you a little bit later. Appreciate you. >> Otherwise, uh but yeah, e- minis are sliding a little bit. Down 16. NASDAQ's
[01:06:52] second break. Join us on the YouTube channel. We're streaming on Tasty Live. channel. We're streaming on Tasty Live. We'll see you on the other side of it.
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[01:10:10] the show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. E- Minis are down 17. NASDAQ's down 360. The Dow is the only of the big four that are up right now. Uh, Bitcoin, four that are up right now. Uh, Bitcoin, ETH flat, kind of a choppy day here, but
[01:10:24] ETH flat, kind of a choppy day here, but love to see Costco up to uh, Jeral's happiness. Google up still uh, three and a half points. Microsoft up six points. Love to see it seeing a little sector rotation into the software products and
[01:10:37] kind of out of these chip stocks uh, and into some of those consumer staples. But we do have a very special guest, Mr. Ben on the line. And Ben, we uh we got to ask you, are you buying a Dell because President Trump said to buy a Dell, or
[01:10:52] are you keeping your hand >> Well, anytime President Trump says something, I feel like I need to [laughter] respond. Uh, no. I That's my at Dell, you look at on the daily chart, this thing is a bullish flag if I've
[01:11:05] ever seen one. Um, I mean, it's it's going sideways. It's it's consolidating. like, you know, pretty much any name Trump has been behind, whether it be Dell or Intel or you name it, it's just going to continue to push because he's
[01:11:20] So, [laughter] I um I do I do like Dell. Uh I do, you of break, you know, the top of that bullish flag and and keep running, I think it could do just fine somewhere where, you know, above maybe 450 or so,
[01:11:36] now, it's just, you know, really digesting that massive move it made between February and uh and May. So, some point, it's got to digest a little now. Uh but eventually, I do think it gets back on that push higher.
[01:11:51] it's Dell, whether it's AMD, Intel, I mean, how are you trading any of these get a little high in some of these options wise. I mean, what are you what these? >> Yeah, I mean, for me, I I love to have a
[01:12:05] good riskreward. And so when I look at a name like a Dell, like an AMD, uh, as long as it's in a bullish trend and I can play it at a a pretty solid area of demand, you know, previous demand, uh, with this with a tight stop and a
[01:12:18] really what we've been seeing from a lot of these names, you know, uh, in this this kind of what's it called? The great capex trade of AI, whether it be, you know, memory or whether it be processors. I mean, these have just been
[01:12:32] incredibly bullish names. And so I like to play bullish names in a bullish way uh with a good riskreward. So I'll look at a name, you know, like Dell or AMD and anytime this thing has pulled back, you know, to any areas of previous
[01:12:44] demand, we have seen a pretty good opportunity for bounces. Just saw that on Apple on a previous pullback. Um, and so yeah, I look at AMD and I think gosh, if this thing can pull back to that previous demand of about 500, uh, where
[01:12:58] there's also, you know, just a pretty important psychological level of 500, I could see AMD bouncing from there, pushing back up to the fives and and, um, you know, as long as the VIX stays relatively low, I'm okay playing a
[01:13:10] directional, you know, call on that. But, uh, if not, I I don't mind uh, you wants to get a little bit higher. uh and and options cost me a little bit more. So that's usually that's how I'm tending to play those names as long as they pull
[01:13:24] support zones. I like to play them to a bounce with a tight stop. >> Beautiful. Yeah, we've been seeing uh some choppiness here in AMD specifically. I like that 500 call out like you said. Um what do you make of
[01:13:38] like you said. Um what do you make of the the divergence between the NASDAQ? I mean the NASDAQ when you think about it holistically, it's all tech, right? But when you look at uh underneath the hood a little bit, you've got the MAG 7 that
[01:13:50] just could not catch a bid. Uh when you look at MAGS, just the the combo ETF here went from 70 down to 60. Now we're kind of chopping in the middle of the range. SMH at the same time is moving in the opposite direction. Do you have any
[01:14:03] sort of feel for or do you play this kind of chips are selling off, software is catching a bid, Mag 7 selling off, other tech sectors catching a bid. Do at single names individually? >> 100%. Yeah, we very much look from the
[01:14:19] top down view, right? So, I like to play strong names and strong sectors and when we have sectors that are, you know, not really outperforming, not really key sectors that have been strong for the past month, and that's XLF, XLV,
[01:14:33] XLI, you know, the healthcare is the financials, the industrials. So, you're compilation there just kind of chopping along and not showing me a whole lot, then we don't really have the wind at our back. Um, and that's what we
[01:14:49] of a top down from those those, you know, strengthened sectors. Now, you mentioned, you know, SMH with the semis, and at some point we had to see that cool off a little bit. I mean last year I was looking at uh SO XL which is a
[01:15:04] triple lever ETF on the semis when that thing went down to eight bucks during the whole tariff scare and then it recently hit 300 and so that is a enormous enormous move uh for a triple lever ETF especially in that sector. So,
[01:15:19] I do love playing that rotation, but I what I the way I tend to do it is I tend to find strong names in strong sectors and the ones that have been really, you know, shown out of late is the XLIS, the XLFs, the XLVs, uh, which would make
[01:15:34] themselves because when you go to the Q's, you know, we're in shop. When you go to the SPY, we're in chop. When you go to the DIA or the IWM, you know, the Russell or or the or the Dow, we're seeing a lot of strength. And so, you
[01:15:49] know, XLF, XLV, XLI, these are these are the names that that you would expect, you know, with with that type of index rotation, um, not just, you know, sector for. I'd love to play strong names and strong sectors.
[01:16:02] mean, we're literally, I've just realized seven days away, I mean, from from coming up. I mean, is there any any you're looking to play? Do you play you like to play? >> Yeah, we love to play earnings. Yeah,
[01:16:16] the way we play earnings is a very similar way uh for um you know the the We just always I mean our job is risk management and so if we can find a bullish name like a BAC we've played Cityroup for example on a runup into
[01:16:31] earnings and so if we can play these names and get some risk capital at hand for a push up into earnings as we know with a massive you know catalytic event like earnings it's going to push you know the the the IV higher in the
[01:16:45] options and so that's naturally going to help it anyway. Uh so if we can play any kind of pullbacks like you see there in city you know back to previous demand zones for bounces uh that's what we like to play get some risk capital at hand
[01:16:57] and then kind of see if what we are seeing with the options market is it just you know are they buying them aggressively is it dramatically you know uh leaning put call ratio toward calls versus puts and then if we can put some
[01:17:10] risk capital behind that for earnings then we try and do that but always with kind of risk adjusted ideas that we you know got risk capital from on the way up like to play earnings. >> Yeah, some of these are boasting a
[01:17:25] getting a quick preview for some of these earnings announcements. Cityroup about 5% uh in terms of the implied move relative to the stock price. JP Morgan not as much down at like we'll call it 3% here. So there are some interesting
[01:17:41] uh you know island moves or island implied moves in Croup and some others. I would be imagine if you look at like Wells Fargo uh it's probably going to be a little bit higher in implied volatility. Yeah, about 5%. So yeah,
[01:17:55] interesting to see JP Morgan not having the same amount of implied volatility as these other two. Uh Bank of America likely in the same boat. Yeah, 3% we'll call it. So yeah, there's going to be opportunities there. But I think the low
[01:18:09] I I always shy away from low implied volatility readings like 3% if I'm if I'm selling premium like if I'm doing an iron condor or something like that. I'd rather have explosive implied volatility. But directional moves like
[01:18:21] this is super low. If you think Bank of America or Cityroup or Wells Fargo or JP Morgan could have a, you know, 5% 6% move from earnings, you're basically situations. >> Yeah. And that's and that's what we're
[01:18:34] with you. If I'm going to sell premium, I I want the IV to be high. Uh, but but as you say, when you see relatively low, you [clears throat] know, financials has strong. And so, if we can kind of continue to see that strength, then I
[01:18:49] think, uh, that bodess well for, you know, a post earnings run. Um, one of don't have a very clear sense of what that's going to be, we know that that IV earnings is announced and then can we can we play a continuation from there in
[01:19:04] >> Yeah, for sure. Well, thanks Ben. Appreciate your time. It's been fun. >> It's been my pleasure. Thanks for having me and uh, you know, it really been a look forward to being back sometime. >> Appreciate you, man.
[01:19:18] >> Sounds good coming on. E- mini down 17, NASDAQ down 420, Dow is still the only that changes. Uh, but we're going to take a quick 90 second break here. You
[01:19:30] take a quick 90 second break here. You are watching Tasty Live.
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[01:24:15] show. So, we've got the E- Minis selling off here, down 22, NASDAQ down 470, over 1.5%. Crazy moves to the downside, but we're seeing some rotations back into some other products that have not been
[01:24:28] loved as of late. But, uh, we got Jamal in the house. We got E in the house. And in the house. We got E in the house. And E, I know you were going for the US of >> It's bearish for the market. Yeah, clearly [laughter]
[01:24:41] >> You know what's funny? I'm surprised nobody came out with a stat about like what happens after the day the US loses. >> That's all I could think about. Game was doing. We were just chugging lower. I was like, there we go. I guess that's
[01:24:54] it stings a little bit this morning. So, I had to size down my position so that I so I'm putting up the guard rails. But no, with that being said, getting a little bit more volatility to the downside in the overall market. Um, we
[01:25:08] straighta her though that might be a little bit bullish for the oil market like the oil market was stalling a little bit there. I know we got the the pretty big down move, but I think everybody was wondering if we were going
[01:25:21] nice to see a little bit more volume coming into some of the oil names now. coming into some of the oil names now. >> What? I just paid $3.99 in gas today. I >> You want to see more oil up >> at Costco?
[01:25:34] you >> was on my way. Yeah. [laughter] Yeah, it. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I No, I hear you. Uh, >> no, you're right. Oil's back above 70. It's been a minute. Um, honestly, it's
[01:25:46] back. >> We'll see if that really means anything. That's really something. >> Yeah, we've got this uh straddle here, 76 straddle out, 41 days, 850 bucks in premium. So, looking good. As long as we
[01:26:00] stick around 70 or higher, uh, at least in the long term, we'll be we'll be just >> yeah. No, I hear you. A little bit more air into those names. Uh, I know the oil one. I guess if you were on the short side, that was one that really fell in
[01:26:14] mean we've been getting down ticks almost on a daily basis. So today's the know how it is with some of these headlines, these quote unquote fake headlines. So we'll see what sustains with with the overall market. But we do
[01:26:29] have a long futures contract in there. So I think if we make new lows, I'll mean it's doing pretty well for the day. We kind of caught it near the lows and bit on the day. >> I mean, it looks like the beginning of a
[01:26:41] looks like it might have found a bottom there. time to get long. >> I mean, after such a a large down move. And I mean, man, the velocity of that move to the downside was was no joke.
[01:26:54] the upside. I mean, putting in some record numbers on oil and then I mean, within just what two to three weeks just like that. So, it's a little bit markets right now. I know it's a completely different market, but in
[01:27:08] terms of just how the emotions felt, the euphoria with the move, the initial move to the upside and then uh kind of a little bit more air coming out. So, oil right there. We we tried to catch a little bit of a bid, but I mean, I don't
[01:27:21] over in these metals. So, that's something I'm being caution uh as well. You know, trading oil. We don't know if the bottom is truly in. We don't know if this is just another intermary uh just kind of uh lower high on the way down
[01:27:35] cautious for it, especially if you're trading a little bit more directional. options, you have a little bit more flexibility. I know that's one reason why uh you like to do a lot of the options on the futures too, it still
[01:27:47] of manipulate the strikes, kind of manipulate the position a little bit there, too. So, that's definitely something to keep top of mind. Um, but mean, you gotta definitely watch out for catching some type of only knife. So,
[01:28:00] >> for sure. Yeah, I think, uh, the setup money diagonal, 10 points wide, and then an at the money, slightly in the money, and they're basically the same price. So, I think I'm just I'm going to go
[01:28:13] with a call diagonal here and just buy the 380 September, sell the 390 August. Okay. >> Pay less than $10 for it. uh very points further out of the money. But I would rather need less of a directional
[01:28:26] move and have more than twice as much exttrinsic value here in the short off. It'll be a better scenario for >> 100%. Um >> yeah, both gold and and um well, I mean,
[01:28:38] this just we can just keep it at gold and oil and and um we've saw I think the talking about was talking about how those have those are some of the worst lot of people, you know, they they look at stuff like that. What was bad on this
[01:28:53] month and can you try and get um you know, an opposite move going in in that seeing a little bit with with with oil, with gold. They're having these rounding areas where they fluctuate around. For oil, it's $70. For gold, I think it's
[01:29:07] oil, it's $70. For gold, I think it's about $4,200 at this point. So, I also Mike has, you know, shortfall in that whether you short fall in gold, however you want to do it, like they're going to mess around in those areas. Diagonal
[01:29:20] up above, you're able to like close it still trying to figure out what area it is. It's not the same kind of gold that we saw last year where it's just straight up bullish all day long, every
[01:29:33] day. Doesn't matter. It's different now. It trades differently. You can see it. SpaceX as we get into the rest of this week or has that kind of been on the back burner since the IPO? >> I think exactly that. It's been on the
[01:29:45] back burner. We have positions, but I I I daytoday I haven't even looked at the seems like it's somewhere between 150 and 160. >> Yeah. No, I I got black tape over my position, so I was [laughter] at that
[01:29:57] time. Uh, no, I mean, I had I had actually had bought an a naked call on on SpaceX. We were I think I bought it for about 620. Uh, the call went down to about like I think like worth two bucks and then went back up to 620. I was like
[01:30:09] out of this one and then I sold an added money put spread there. So, that one's break even. So, we'll we'll be patient for SpaceX. You just you just had to do it. It's SpaceX. So, >> we'll be we'll be patient. Yeah, we got
[01:30:22] a a butterfly here. 10 days out, 20 points wide. It was just felt it was too >> Yeah. >> Uh and it's b it's flat right now. But uh also have this long-term Super Bowl. Sold a 125 put to buy a 300 call. That
[01:30:37] one's uh over a year out. So >> that is a long one. hairs by that time. >> I already got some. Errol. It's too >> I have one. I have one. And uh I don't know how I feel about that. That's what
[01:30:51] out. >> Just pull it out. know. I left it in there. It was just like a a mark of just like I don't know. >> If you leave it in there, it finds others.
[01:31:04] first beard hairs growing. Like I'm never touching this and I had a full those things where was like I can grow a beard. So I got I got to keep the gray. >> Yeah. This is this is the uh an
[01:31:17] adventure into a man's brain or boy's brain. [laughter] Don't >> get me started on the chest. I got two cut. [laughter] >> You think I'm joking?
[01:31:29] >> On that note, [laughter] >> thank you. E appreciate your insight. Uh second break. Join us on the YouTube channel. We're streaming live there. channel. We're streaming live there. You're watching Tasty Live.
[01:31:54] approved FINRA's proposal to eliminate the pattern day trader rule, also known the pattern day trader rule, also known as the PDT rule. This is a big deal for many retail traders. For more than 20 years, the PDT rule has been a major
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[01:33:17] can continue to day trade in your margin account. On our platform, we show realtime buying power so you can always see where you stand and keep your risk in check. Now, it's important to talk about timing. While this news can be
[01:33:31] exciting, these rules will not take effect overnight. The new rules will become active 45 days after FINRA publishes its regulatory notice. After that, firms that need more time to update their system will have that
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[01:34:46] with Jamal. You're watching Tasty Live. E- Mini's down 30 points. NASDAQ down E- Mini's down 30 points. NASDAQ down 480. We've got Tim Knight on the line. And uh Tim, we hear we've got the microphones. Yeah,
[01:34:58] >> Yeah. >> They're they're literally yelling at you >> They know when you're going on. >> Yeah. Well, no, they're they're a room away with a closed door between them, but still the piercing shrieks of a
[01:35:11] husky cut through. [laughter] And uh so we're talking about a hair >> Is that the focus? >> Yes. And >> that's what I heard in the last segment. >> Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Errol. Yeah. Yeah.
[01:35:24] >> Hair talk featuring Jamal. He's He's exactly picturing me. I [clears throat] have zero at this point in time. I was talking about all his gray hairs. >> Yeah. I'm glad you didn't use that as a segue to come to me. [laughter]
[01:35:39] >> You look great. You look great. >> Speaking of the aged and infirm. [laughter] Okay. I'm I'm hearing noise, but my tasty obligations for me from checking on what's being destroyed right now.
[01:35:54] So, um >> I actually just saw that recently, like this collage on Instagram of like dogs destroying things. I mean, that's the >> you know, I haven't had a dog since I was a kid. I haven't, as an adult, I
[01:36:06] haven't had any. That's the only reason. >> Let's see. Let me Let's um Oh, here's >> Oh, yeah. >> Um you can see the This [laughter] is
[01:36:18] Yeah. This is like This is the one thing >> Yeah. Um, I'm sure. Um, I'm sure. >> So, yeah. Anyway, uh, besides all that,
[01:36:31] >> Let's do it. >> Let's do it. >> If that's okay. Um, listen, in the in the in the tasty trade statuary hall, I
[01:36:43] really want someone to consider uh putting putting mine in there just cuz this one thing. this I remember distinctly on this very program on this distinctly on this very program on this day here this bar on June 22nd uh I went
[01:36:56] time to short this one because it was the perfect kiss of that broken trend line and it hasn't been a straight line down but it's been a nice little tumble we've had this is SMH semiconductors that was the peak and we fell and we
[01:37:12] pushed back to a beautiful gap close right there just picture perfect right out of a textbook and and then another tumble. And the the tough thing about mornings like this is like if you're, you know, if there's any bears out there
[01:37:24] left besides myself, when do you cover? Um because obviously at the moment, at this immediate moment, it seems like a good place to cover because of what's transpired over the past few weeks. Um,
[01:37:38] transpired over the past few weeks. Um, I trimmed my SMH options position uh some, but they expire in freaking January, so I can't get too anxious about it. Um, but uh yeah, that that's the challenge. which was a really good
[01:37:52] the challenge. which was a really good morning because um I felt yesterday that uh I was already short tech and semiconductors, but I saw one very striking article that noted that three out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500
[01:38:08] out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 25% of the gains so far this year. That's a lot of numbers, but I did the arithmetic. And if if I've got I did the arithmetic. And if if I've got this right, it means they have 167 times
[01:38:20] proportionate uh effect on there. That's pretty big. It was Micron, it was Western Digital, it was SanDisk. I was already short two. And just cuz I'm a I'll short the third one, too." So, I short all three.
[01:38:34] >> So, um anyway, yeah, just there's just about no semiconductor in my memory stock that I'm not short. How many rooms do I have to get you away from girly? do I have to get you away from girly? [laughter] Anyway, uh so it's better
[01:38:47] than before. Um so like here's just a smattering of things I'm short now. And again, I'm struggling with like do I cover, do I partly cover, etc. What I'll probably do is just tighten up those stops and maybe partly cover here and
[01:39:00] there. Marll, here's another fine example of like, okay, is the chart helpful? Uh we're getting very close to closing that gap at least. It might be a good time to to uh to tighten up positions. You don't
[01:39:15] uh to tighten up positions. You don't know how good your life is. Uh SNDK, that I hadn't been short already. I was already short Micron in Western Digital and this sucker went up and they did a video about this yesterday. Um it
[01:39:28] [clears throat] was up like 5,000% something insane since down here, you know, it was down like at 22 and went to like thousands of dollars for the love of God. And so now we're starting to shave some of that off. And uh so we've
[01:39:41] shave some of that off. And uh so we've gone on this from, you know, approaching gone on this from, you know, approaching like 2500 down to we've lost like $1,000 so far almost. Good heavens. >> Uh 40% approaching. This is nuts. But
[01:39:54] it's uh congratulations to anybody crazy enough to like buy butts or something up here cuz that was an amazing move. But um I think there's a lot more to go. Uh STM, which is ST Micro Electronics. Uh, another nice tumble there. All these
[01:40:07] failed trend lines. I mean, it seems that tech definitely is like falling way out of favor. Um, whereas the industrials just keep chomping forward. Uh, although even the YM is red now. The YM is at lifetime highs earlier. Um, we
[01:40:22] we'll get to that in a in a minute. Seagate STX, another nice tumble here. A Seagate STX, another nice tumble here. A lot of these are down 7 8 9% this lot of these are down 7 8 9% this morning. uh Vsh Vet Interactive uh this
[01:40:36] sound 9%. So just across the board uh if you're if you're short tech um and and about oh I'm going to go buy a Dell. That was part of what prompted it kind
[01:40:49] of the that man standing behind the podium talking about buy and uh stocks are about to I forget the exact words but stocks are about to like go raging higher. It's like really from this depressed base. You think so? This was
[01:41:02] if this was 1982, sure, you betcha. You know, at the end of a 15-year uh bare market, absolutely. But no, I don't think we're poised to like go raging higher at these levels. Um and Caterpillar, of course, weirdly, has
[01:41:16] there, even though they're kind of known more for their combines and their tractors and such, but um because of the hyperscaler buildout, they've become kind of the darling of AI, and even they're taking a hard turn. Uh they were
[01:41:30] at lifetime highs just five trading days ago and so I'm short them too over 5% down. Micron another terrific one. Uh this one uh peaking up here um just
[01:41:42] announcing a big multifund million contribution to I think those new accounts for children. Uh I guess to the idea was but that was kind of the tippity top of that. So, we've cut
[01:41:55] through the trend line of that. Uh, just anything touching hyperscaling is just anything touching hyperscaling is just uh got a stink on it right now. SMTC, what they do, but they got a nice little top there falling on this one down
[01:42:09] almost 9%. And WDC, the other one I mentioned that was um had produced such mentioned that was um had produced such extraordinary gains. Um, that's down almost 10%. Uh the one item yesterday that I made mention of being bullish on
[01:42:24] was crude oil and it's up uh 2.58%. Why was I bullish on crude oil? Well, charts what else? Uh my view here was that we had closed this gap beautifully. This gap had been created um at the start of the war. So basically the gap between
[01:42:40] you know the Friday and the Monday that the war was announced. We fully sealed it a couple of trading days ago and then some. Um, and now we're starting to push higher. It would be completely plausible for this thing to kind of hack its way
[01:42:53] back up to the bottom of that right triangle. As far as the ENQ, we have been rangebound for weeks, but uh it is not out of the sight of realm of possibility that we could cut through the lows we saw, I guess would be last
[01:43:07] the lows we saw, I guess would be last week, um, and get out of this range. Uh, particularly as people start sweating bullets about the hyperscalers. Um, as far as YM goes, as I said, lifetime highs earlier uh uh this morning.
[01:43:20] However, we're down just a little bitty bit right now. Got a little cute little shooting star there. It doesn't mean much, you know, at uh at at 7 uh 15 in the morning, but um it's a start, but I have no position. In fact, I have no big
[01:43:34] ETF positions. It's just a dozens of uh of [clears throat] little stocks mostly of [clears throat] little stocks mostly um with tech. And last chart is IBIT. Um, I I reshorted crypto this morning by way of IBIT. Um, and uh, we'll see how
[01:43:50] frustrating recently. We had a big bounce in crypto from about 58,000 to 64,000. We'll see if that gap seal finishes it up. So, all in all, I almost said long story short, but that seems too pat. All in all, really good
[01:44:05] too pat. All in all, really good morning. Um, and uh, just the struggle profits or just stick your thumbs in your pockets and and and wait. So, I'm just going to have to move them chart by chart. But, uh, yeah, really really good
[01:44:19] >> Well, you're always the catalyst. I mean, by the time you end, we either turn around or we go further down. So, what's happening? >> That's [laughter] what worries me. Well, we'll be up plus 70 on the ES at the day
[01:44:31] end, you know, because because of how these things rock. though. God is >> One last quick one, too. We heard you were bullish on gold. I am I'm long-term crazy bullish on
[01:44:44] gold. Uh uh I I've got a whole series of ratio charts which, you know, you can conclude that if nothing else, precious metals will greatly outperform stocks for years to come. Whether that means stocks fall or stocks go up less.
[01:44:59] Mathematically, it could go either way. But yeah, long-term. But, you know, no, my only precious position now is I'm actually short GDX, but that's a metals, you know, if you're like, "Okay, you got to buy something and hold it for
[01:45:12] Definitely. >> Love it. Well, thanks, Tim. Appreciate back to your pup over there. >> I'm going to see what's been destroyed. What's next? >> Perfect. Uh E- Minis selling off still
[01:45:27] down 45. NASDAQ down 600 down the Russell. thread as well. U but we got Julia on the line. We've got some research for you all. And uh Julia, what do you think of these markets? >> The markets are marketing, that's for
[01:45:41] >> markets are marketing. >> And that's the segment, everyone. >> Yeah, but are you are you marketing the markets? >> my am >> technically a little bit.
[01:45:54] >> Yeah, technically you're marketing the markets for sure. dual appointment in marketing for those who don't know. >> True. >> Uh folks, um yeah, no, it it the speed
[01:46:06] still like well within like that standard deviation of the, you know, speed of it. I'm going to keep watching it, so we'll see. We'll see what >> Um but yeah, uh >> this is really a blip on the map though.
[01:46:19] It's it's interesting, right? We're so used to being up. We see down 50. Oh my >> Although in this market though, if it flips green, I would not be surprised to habitually. This uh market gives me trust issues.
[01:46:34] >> Yeah, it's been uh it's been interesting because we've had we had a little bit of a sell off yesterday and volatility wasn't really reacting. Now we're kind of seeing Vault pick up a little bit. Uh still in pretty decent contango here.
[01:46:48] So, I still would lean towards buying the dip here, but definitely a bigger move than I was expecting today. >> Crazy to think that this is the dip. I don't know. Uh, but little little VIX spike, you know. I mean, now we're up to
[01:47:01] what, 16, which is kind of crazy. 5% increase gets you to like 16. Um, but yeah, that goes to show you that relative volatility metric, like why we use those like IVR, IVP, uh, because it's relatively high even though overall
[01:47:13] trader looking for opportunities, you're looking for you know times to sell premium then that's why we use that relative metric. Uh so that you know and inflated across all the indices right now. Uh with NASDAQ actually being the
[01:47:26] highest I think. Yeah. NASDAQ being the highest by a lot. >> Mhm. >> Yeah. Yeah. You're right. Yeah. >> Usually the Russell's leading the charge on that one. That's pretty cool. But
[01:47:38] active traders, for looking for, you know, kind of short-term opportunities, measures because, you know, overall VIX levels are pretty low, but relative ones are are high when we're looking at it within the context of the last year.
[01:47:52] not this Russell. This Russell is different. Russell better than I can right now, but I don't know. >> But you want to get into these slides? >> Do it. Speaking of revenge trades, uh
[01:48:07] God did this piece on revenge trading. Basically, uh when you get emotional and you take a loss and you're like, you know, I'm just going to put more capital in to try to make my money back. What's going to happen? Uh this is what this
[01:48:19] yeah, God did this piece. If you want to follow him over on X, he's got Litics. Uh but super cool piece. Uh it's about yeah staying consistent and trying to especially not you know trying to claw back your losses right after you take
[01:48:33] take a big loss. That's kind of like the moral of the story here which maybe you wanted to actually test it um to see what uh you know what the numbers say. [laughter] >> She was she was saying that she's she
[01:48:49] >> but still >> some emotions. That's the that's the markets, you can't really, you know, you can't control the markets. You can are the hardest thing to kind of keep in check. Um, so here we're looking at 16
[01:49:03] delta spy strangles, 45 DTE held to expiration again because we want to look important here is that volatility clustering is going to play a really big factor in compounding losses. And volatility clustering is something that
[01:49:16] you can see on different time scales. You can see that on 45d time scales, 30 DTE time scales, 15 DTE time scales, sometimes intraday as well. So the the clustering and that's going to hold true, but we're just using 45d kind of
[01:49:31] as a benchmark um because that's where you know um the option like some of the other risk factors of options are a little bit more negated, but uh just to make sure uh to understand why held to expiration. Um, and then, uh, we're
[01:49:45] looking at 5 years of daily entries, 2021 to 2026. Um, and then, uh, what we're going to do is we're only going to change the trade side after a loss. So, going to scale up the amount of
[01:49:58] these strategies. We're going to compare that to a fixed size. So, say we're either going to put five or 10% of our portfolio net liquidity into this position versus doubling it up when we incur a loss. and 5 to 10% we're using
[01:50:13] because like typically you don't want right too much of your portfolio in one smaller account then that's why we're kind of using that 5 to 10% range. Five could even be very big you know if you have a very large account but that's
[01:50:26] versus doubling up the amount of uh capital allocated um right after you take a loss. We're also testing triple and keeping the double. So, uh, what we're basically trying to test is if you scale the capital up significantly after
[01:50:41] right after a loss happen, does that make the losses worse or does that make it drain the account or does it not? And I think important thing to note here is that when you know the VIX goes up, often buying powers tend to go down uh
[01:50:55] because that expected range increases so much. So, not only do you double up the amount of net liquidity into, you know, a single position, not only are you you're actually going up more than that because we're using netlick as as this
[01:51:07] >> Yeah. >> Mhm. [clears throat] >> So, any any intuition here? What do you guys think? guys think? >> I was going to ask Mike. I mean, I think
[01:51:19] >> right? >> It's not going to be good. >> It's not going to be good. >> No chance. Speaking from uh from my own No. >> Yeah,
[01:51:31] >> it's not we have good old Kelly criterion uh here. Uh speaking of betting uh but yeah, not good. And other important thing to note is we do have capital up when V goes up just cuz premiums are going up and you know
[01:51:45] diversified across positions not dumping everything into a single position. So know where I'm going with this. We could go to the next slide. >> It needs to be seen though. >> Um it needs to be seen. Sometimes you
[01:51:59] got to I mean sometimes you got to feel it too which is not not fun. Um but when we're looking at these 45D uh DTE positions uh and then managed to halfway to expiration we can see that when we double up we're still their pops are
[01:52:11] Like we kind of don't expect pops to change um very much when your position when your position sizes changes. So kind of aligning with what you see from a stringle. those big losses get a whole bunch bigger. Um, and that's kind of
[01:52:26] like you have this volatility clustering in the VIX. It's like when you have one instance of market volatility that's usually, you know, uh, followed by more market volatility. So, there's a lot of, you know, when you have this expansion
[01:52:40] lot of opportunity that comes with that. extremely important. It's more volatile, premiums get bigger, losses potentially dumping more capital into the same position to try to claw back losses
[01:52:54] right after your first one happens, you're exposing a lot more capital to that market volatility instead of being more mindful of position size, which is after you have a big move uh that can incur a loss.
[01:53:07] >> Yeah. And what what you're also doing, and I think this is a great graphic, is you have if you're doubling down and and like increasing your position size and then you're taking additional losses, you're synthetically bringing yourself
[01:53:21] to that end of the curve with a very small move in the market where like for you to have a one lot, if you're doing one lots to have a, you know, $2,500, the market because that's your your size is correct in that sense. But if you're
[01:53:36] doubling, tripling, quadrupling your size, now the market only has to go down another 20 points and you're realizing that same effect as if you had a black swan event in the markets. So you're you're putting yourself in a scenario
[01:53:49] have a higher probability of realizing the loss equivalent to a black swan >> And it does. Yeah, >> that's why sizing is so important because like the our MEES position and MNQ positions we talk about like we can
[01:54:03] MNQ positions we talk about like we can absorb 30% 40% 50% downside in the markets but if you're sized too big and you can only absorb 5%. Well, you're that's the key. You have to be able to
[01:54:16] absorb all variance if you can do it. Like that's the correct size. If you can absorb all variance, especially to the downside, u with undefined risk trades, then you're going to be in a much better spot, right? And yeah, that's what we're
[01:54:29] here. We're trying to look at like we're looking at undefined risk because we really want to understand that tail in these kind of extreme events. They don't they can get very bad. And um exposing more and more capital to that. Um not
[01:54:43] strategically. You want to potentially scale your capital up when you do have this market volatility, but you want to be mindful about diversifying the capital, about being mind especially mindful about single position sizes in a
[01:54:55] specific underlying, especially as the market goes down and more assets kind of become correlated to the market during those like high volatility events. So scaling the capital up and capitalizing on those higher premiums can be yeah
[01:55:08] good thing potentially depending on risk tolerances but being super mindful about putting too much into a position especially when you're trying to claw claw back losses um that can get really dangerous. So if we go to the next slide
[01:55:22] um here we're comparing a fixed 10% versus fixed 5% versus doubling down and because we wanted to account for different account sizes. So 5% might even be kind of big if you have a very big account. Um 10% might be, you know,
[01:55:38] like the mechanics or the rules of thumb, but if you have a very small to account for those different levels. And obviously the 10% is the most aggressive growth overall, although the most volatile. And then uh when you're
[01:55:51] doubling down, that's when you actually entirely wipe out the account just because even though your pops remain the same, uh those losses compounding specifically, while they don't happen very often, are enough to really drag
[01:56:04] down performance overall such that you actually break even after the look back >> Yeah. >> Yeah. This is another interesting one. So, we're basically looking at what's the probability of doubling a loss. And
[01:56:20] when what was really interesting here is that that probability goes up to 90% when you're putting more capital into a trade, right? Because like with more capital at risk um and these uh correlated, not correlated events,
[01:56:34] clustering that tends to happen, you actually see that you have a 90% chance of doubling your initial loss when you're doubling down on a trade. um versus 28% overall. Um so that I thought was a very interesting one. Again, like
[01:56:48] these are not very common events, but when they do happen and that tail is more, that can be detrimental to kind of long-term growth. So that was a very >> Losses bunched together just like volatility.
[01:57:01] >> Just like volatility bunching it together. And then again, the the deeper the revenge, the worse that it gets. Um, and I think that this is just, yeah, kind of moral of the story is that like trying to claw back losses and getting
[01:57:14] emotional and scaling capital up to try to recover is not necessarily strategic. Um, there are strategic ways to do that, but putting more and more capital into the same position to try to um, I don't know, get a different result can be very
[01:57:30] most important thing is about staying consistent, about staying strategic about scaling it up, being very thoughtful about doing that. >> Yeah, I think it's uh again it goes back to the uh doubling at the wrong time,
[01:57:47] but also just doubling increases your probability of reaching what would have been your black swan event if you just had one contract size or one trunch of whatever you're trying to trade. Yeah, I think that's another important
[01:58:00] lesson about short premium positions is that your pops are pops are high, right? You can get like 60 70 80% pops, right? Like so it's really just consistency is
[01:58:12] things in my own opinion is really controlling those tail losses and trying to stay in the game as long as possible to capitalize on those small, you know, profits over time. Um, pops are in your favor, right? And it's really about
[01:58:26] controlling position size and being consistent is like, you know, it's hard loss. >> Yeah, it is for sure. >> Yeah, we can go on over to the takeaways. So, revenge sizing turns some
[01:58:40] losses into even bigger losers. Um, doubling really like what we saw at specific underlying over the specific time frame just completely wiped out a portfolio. And the deeper the revenge is and the more capital you try to dump
[01:58:54] back in to um to get some of that money back, the worse those cumulative losses tend to become, specifically when we're looking at those kind of extreme market but when they do happen, they can escalate pretty quickly. So, the moral
[01:59:07] of the story here is to really just be mindful about scaling up cap capital and recovering losses in um a strategic way. if the statistics are favorable, if strategy, then allocating that money appropriately um versus yeah, getting
[01:59:22] emotional and trying to trying to claw back with this with the same position incurred. >> Size for your edge, not your emotions. That's that's key. >> Size for your probabilities.
[01:59:35] >> I like it. I like it. >> Beautiful. Well, thank you, Julia. Appreciate your time. Uh but yeah, always always keep that size in check and really it's it can be boring sometimes when you're feel like your
[01:59:47] where you want to be. Yep. >> Because that's when you know like I it right now. Like my most confident position is the MEES position, MNQ position because it's just I can withstand anything and I know what to do
[02:00:00] at certain times and that's that's where you feel good about the portfolio that >> For sure. >> Yeah, that can also be tricky. you know, are low and you were like, "Hey, I want to scale up a little bit. I don't know,
[02:00:12] collect a little bit more." It's the, you know, when volatility is low, overall probability of a ball pop is is low, just overall. But the ones that statistically have the worst outcomes for short premium traders are when V is
[02:00:25] low. So, that's precisely the time you also want to be mindful about not overallocating overall capital into short premium. Um, and then when V goes up, those rare events, capitalizing on those events appropriately and just size
[02:00:39] VIX is at. >> Yeah, 100%. >> We'll see you we'll see you later. But, uh, yeah, E- Minis selling off here. Speaking of sizing correctly, E- Min selling off 45 uh, points, down half a
[02:00:54] selling off 45 uh, points, down half a percent. NASDAQ down 2%. Uh, down the Russell, both red as well. Uh, Bitcoin and ETH selling off right now, too. and ETH selling off right now, too. Crude oil uh trying to catch a bid here,
[02:01:07] up two points now, two and a half%. You've got uh some other single name products catching a bid. Costco's up nine, Google's up four, Microsoft's up seven. Those are interesting considering the Nasdaq is so red, but the NASDAQ
[02:01:20] being red is really related to uh a lot of these semis. SMH down five and a half percent. You've got SanDisk down 200 points. You've got Micron down 80
[02:01:32] points. You've got Micron down 80 points. You've got Intel down 12 points. Much to my chagrin. Uh but yeah, lots of lots of movement in these markets. Uh we thinking about today? What what do you have your eyes on?
[02:01:48] >> Good to see you guys again. Okay, so uh we have to bet on America. Why? because we have to bet on America. Why? because our overall market cap is oh I saw a
[02:02:00] graphic a little while ago can't remember the specific numbers but it's remember the specific numbers but it's about um 8 times bigger than the next biggest one which I think is China or Japan something like that the United
[02:02:13] States market is the place to be everybody else is I wouldn't even count everybody else is I wouldn't even count them as runners up our mag seven the them as runners up our mag seven the market camp of our Mag 7 is bigger than
[02:02:27] market camp of our Mag 7 is bigger than I think every other country still and certainly bigger than most. Um, so yeah, this is this is the place to be. This is the where the where the game is played in the American markets. And right now
[02:02:42] what I'm seeing we get this is you know Mike, you were saying where the S&Ps were off a little bit this morning. [gasps] I'm not sure if that's going to follow through. What I'm looking at in my little heat map here is an awful lot
[02:02:57] of green, guys. An awful lot of green. Google up. Amazon up. Johnson Johnson, Walmart, Coca-Cola, Proctor and Gamble, JP Morgan, all these stocks are up. Microsoft up after they asked a bunch of people from their Xbox uh division. Um
[02:03:12] you're right. >> Um yeah, they they they're rallying that Palanteer is up. the stocks that are down, chip stocks, Nvidia, AGO, Micron, AMD, that sort of stuff. Um, so yeah, the [clears throat] big um cap stocks uh
[02:03:29] the [clears throat] big um cap stocks uh particularly um Nvidia, Micron are down. That's what's pulling the S&Ps down right now. But I see as opposed to yesterday, there's a lot of green on the map. Over 500 stocks. In other words,
[02:03:43] across the 500 stocks, there's a lot of green. um some of the stocks I'm looking at and I don't know what you guys think about this but um GEV
[02:03:56] uh which is GE Verona ver what is it called guys ver Verova >> Verona whatever it is >> and it's their kind of like I guess uh Jamal I don't know if you're up to speed on what it does I'm barely up to speed I
[02:04:10] think they do their experimental um electric stuff or whatever it That's down two standard deviations this morning, down about 9%. morning, down about 9%. Um, I've traded GEV in the past. Mike,
[02:04:25] what do the options look like in there? >> I mean, they can be wide, >> expensive. >> Yeah. Well, it's a it's a it's it's a >> Yeah. Well, it's a it's a it's it's a one, you know, $1,000 product with 73%
[02:04:38] volatility. So, the options are rich. Um, there's not a huge amount of open Um, there's not a huge amount of open interest in there. I would say let's I don't know. Let's go out maybe to I don't know what's the go to 38 days
[02:04:51] maybe, Mike and see what we look like. Yeah, there's no open interest in there, Yeah, there's no open interest in there, but just Yeah, go. >> Yeah, just see it's moving this way as a result of Samsung. Um, they're kind of
[02:05:05] it's a sympathy move. >> Yeah. And I see this is that's a sneeze guys. I understand that Korea's I love Korea. Don't get me wrong. Cosby is great but please what happens there are two stocks that drive the Korean market.
[02:05:21] Samsung and one I forget you knowis or whatever it's called. >> Thank you. See Jamal. Thank you. Thank you for every day in life. You know what I mean? We complete each other's sentences. I'm
[02:05:35] with you TP. Exactly. So, let's see what we get for a 10point spread in there, we get for a 10point spread in there, Mike. metric, very simple metric. If I can collect a third of the width of the
[02:05:50] strikes on a short spread, if I'm bullish, sell a put spread, bare, sell a call spread, that sort of thing. I'm collecting a third of the wid on here. You know, it's that's what you get for a high volatility, highriced stock. Um,
[02:06:06] and if you want to take more risk, you know, again, GEV, I don't love the liquidity in here, don't love it. But if you're looking for a bullish bet on anything that's down a lot today with really high volatility, GEV, GEV is a
[02:06:21] possibility. Um, another one I'm looking at, uh, John Deere and Caterpillar are down a lot today. Uh, deer's down 1.84, uh, standard deviations. Cat's
[02:06:33] down 1.74. Um, again, Jamal, that might be. Why? Because crude oil's up and Korea's down. I don't know. Take your pick. Um, the
[02:06:45] grains, uh, the grains have had a nice little rally over the past over the past little rally over the past over the past week. Corn, beans, wheat are all up. Um, so tell me why that's bad for uh, stocks like John Deere. I don't know. But I was
[02:07:00] like John Deere. I don't know. But I was I closed out my soybean my long soybean and corn positions before this rally. They hit my profit targets, so I took them off. So, I turned a you know, it was okay. You know, what could have been
[02:07:15] a bigger winner was just a an a good winner. I'll take those profits. I don't care. I'm not beating myself up over that because I have no idea, nobody does, how high these things are going to rally. But um but looking at deer or cat
[02:07:31] rally. But um but looking at deer or cat um again, you know, I don't trade those a lot. Um let's take a look at the skew and something like cat. Again, $916
[02:07:43] and something like cat. Again, $916 stock. So if 916, that's basically in between um 910 and 920. So go down. Let's make the math easy, Mike. and just go 910 down to 8.90. Uh the 8.90 puts are
[02:08:00] trading at the ask price is 51. Let's go up 20 points from um 920 to 940. The ask price on those calls was 54. So 54 versus 52. I don't know, Jamal. Uh the
[02:08:13] call skew looks pointed to the upside. Um, so yeah, if the market is bullish on this, you know, selling a put spread in Caterpillar, how much credit do we get on those things? And with 50% IV overall,
[02:08:29] um, again, that's those are that's a fairly high volatility. So 10 points, $4. >> I mean, it's funny as as Tim Knight mean, like I just mentioned, I couldn't stop talking about yesterday these data
[02:08:44] centers. Just drove by this data center in in Wisconsin and it was massive and all I saw was trucks to his point. It's true. >> So, there you go. So, and and Jamal, that's an interesting point because when
[02:08:56] I think of Caterpillar, okay, it's, you know, the grains, deer, but those companies, especially Caterpillar, are as much about manufacturing and heavy >> as they are farm equipment. So, you're absolutely right. So the so the point is
[02:09:11] that if you're bullish on this thing, I would absolutely use defined risk trades. First of all, naked options on a $900 stock are going to be very capital intensive. And the return on capital, one of the things I look at, guys, for a
[02:09:25] one of the things I look at, guys, for a trade like this is if I'm putting up um my buying power effect is $713. My theta on this, where's my on there, Mike? Do I have it on there? No, we don't have the theta on that on that on
[02:09:41] the um on the screen, but that's something um I look at how much theta I'm generating for that buying power effect effect >> typically like so $150 perfect. So $150
[02:09:54] per day versus 7 $700 of buying power effect. Little low. Little low, but again it's still positive. And that's how I'm not saying you're guaranteed to get this at all. And you guys know that. And
[02:10:08] the time. There's no guarantees in trading at all. But the bottom line is trading at all. But the bottom line is trading short spreads in high volatility products gets you a better return on capital if you're willing to take the
[02:10:25] risk than sticking your money in a CD. And okay, maybe you don't have to do this with all your money. Maybe, you know, you don't have to be trading all the time, although it certainly helps you find opportunities, but this is the
[02:10:40] sort of strategy that I like, whether it's in Caterpillar or deer or GEV or >> And you can be bullish, bearish, or otherwise, but the point is getting a
[02:10:53] return on capital from Theta that is is is personally my my go-to number. Um some of the other stocks GE is also down 1.43. So GE VOVA and G and GE
[02:11:07] 1.43. So GE VOVA and G and GE um GE is a you know used to be a less expensive stock now 364. [laughter]
[02:11:20] guys, um the big movers on the upside, uh GILD, gold, the um Gilead is up, uh 2.1 standard deviations, Pepsi, a lot of the the consumer non-durables, things
[02:11:35] the the consumer non-durables, things like Pepsi, um CocaCola, um uh what are they? Johnson and Johnson, they're all up a lot today. Um, so you know, Pepsi up two standard deviations, 2.0 standard deviations.
[02:11:51] CocaCola up a lot, too. Um, bullish, bearish. I don't know what your guys between the two. >> I'm bullish. I've been talking about it all morning. Actually, yesterday it was, um, dawning on me that this rotation has
[02:12:05] semis were green and and all those names that you mentioned were were red. And, um, it just seemed kind of like a a play to make. And so I made it in a couple. I did it in Colgate, Paul Malive, and Target in Proctor and Gamble. I did uh
[02:12:19] uh diagonals in in pretty much all of them. Um like four names. So >> yeah, play. >> Well, see that's that's exactly right. And and Jamal to your point is it's Yeah, you just saw an opportunity and
[02:12:31] the only reason you're going to see this opportunity is you were watching what opportunity is you were watching what was going on in the market. And okay, we do this for a living. I understand that. And maybe everybody doesn't have the
[02:12:44] time to focus on it like we do, but it it can pay uh if you have a little bit of time to invest to again the mobile app is huge. Look at this stuff on your mobile app. If you're in some boring meeting, sure, put a trade on Proctor
[02:12:58] and Gamble. What's not to love? >> Um so, but anyway, it's these this is I go back to this guys. It's there's a lot of green on the board. Um, you know,
[02:13:10] Amazon's up. Johnson, to your point, Jamal, it's a lot of those a lot of those consumer non-durables. What are the S&Ps now, Mike? >> Down 57. >> Yeah. So, it's a nice little sell-off.
[02:13:23] I'm short some put spreads in the S&P in there. I' I've got a little bit of a loss, but I'm going to hang on to those. I still have faith in the strategy. Um, and it's the sort of thing you got to do every day. So T-Mobile,
[02:13:37] TM US, is that T-Mobile? >> Mhm. No shorts in there. >> Mhm. No shorts in there. >> Exactly. The telecoms um are are recovering from that spa I guess it was the SpaceX selloff, you
[02:13:53] >> Yeah. >> Um I don't know, Jamal, you remember the don't remember the 50s. I don't remember. You know, >> I just turned 50. I don't remember the
[02:14:05] 50s. >> Exactly. Exactly. You remember But you remember the 40s. But the point is, yuck. Yuck. Yuck. But the point is is the rescue. Now we have the SpaceX scare. So whatever anytime that Jamal,
[02:14:19] anytime that Elon Musk steps in, anytime that Elon Musk steps into an arena, everybody gets scared. Okay, fine. But right now, the big ones, uh, T-Mobile, right now, the big ones, uh, T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T are all up. Um those were,
[02:14:34] you know, again, contrarian bullish opportunities a couple of weeks ago. I never really really thought about this, but it's probably not a surprise that the arenas he jumped in >> has government contracts, right?
[02:14:48] >> Like uh like GM and Ford always had government contracts. Same thing here >> You watched the movie War Dogs and he was like, "What am I doing?" [laughter] [clears throat] your strategist. Where's he going to next? What else has
[02:15:03] >> Right. I don't know. You know, it's whoever's spending a lot of money. Well, actually, you know, it's going back to this point. Who has more money in the government in the world? Probably the United States.
[02:15:15] >> You know, I haven't looked at our tax revenues, you know, you know, versus biggest economy, biggest market. We probably have the most tax money to spend. So, if and you know, Jamal, it's interesting that Yeah. That's again, I'm
[02:15:30] not belittling what Elon Musk has done. If I were smart, I'd go after government money, too, but I'm not. And so, it's it's good for him. But that's the way a
[02:15:42] >> Yeah. >> You know, Palanteer is all government money. Look at look at um look at Microsoft. Look at look at what's his name? Um who's the weirdo that ran Microsoft? Uh, Bill remember his name.
[02:15:58] >> Bill Gates. Bill Gates was all about >> weirdo. That weirdo moniker has been substantiated in the last couple of years by the way. [laughter] >> Exactly. So whatever. So the point is he comes up
[02:16:10] with DOSs. >> He comes up with DOSs in in what 1980 and he gets in with IBM. Yeah. >> And IBM is the huge every you know you never get fired for buying IBM. So it has huge government contracts and by
[02:16:24] extension that's what brought Microsoft out of just the garage and into you know out of just the garage and into you know the Fortune 500 it was it's tapping into it is. >> So I guess we just got to figure out
[02:16:39] where's the next government contracts and uh what's going to be the next because that's all he's done is create disruptors. >> Yeah. But and you don't you don't know right. you don't know. And so it's and
[02:16:54] and if you want to spend time doing that, and I mean that in a in a rhetorical sense, if somebody out there wants to fiddle around with stuff, just like they just like wanting to look at charts or financial statements or
[02:17:07] whatever, fine. Go do that. And once you come up with an answer, please use a smart high probability strategy to express it because it's I think it's
[02:17:19] more profitable for me personally to look a little bit about what's going on in these companies. I don't spend a lot of time looking at specific companies or >> I look at their volatility. I look at their bid ass spreads and the skew and
[02:17:34] >> Nice. >> Love it. Yeah. Check out War Dogs if you haven't seen it. It's a great It's a great movie about uh these kids that get involved with selling uh military items to
[02:17:49] >> Oh, those dudes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. With Jonah Hill and and Mel. That's right. >> It's really >> Is is Jonah Hill that kind of pudgy guy? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I think I've seen my I don't think
[02:18:03] I've seen the whole show, Mike, but I've seen but I've seen snippets of it and I you know and again I'm not up to speed like you guys. I'm not cool. Okay. I don't get invited I don't get invited to Taylor Swift's wedding like [laughter]
[02:18:19] >> Yeah. So it's And I don't know the big names, but anyway, I know the the budgy kid that's [laughter] on these that's on these clips. That's how I know it. So I've seen I've seen snippets of that and it looks pretty funny. I agree. Yeah,
[02:18:31] great movie. Great movie. >> Well, TP, appreciate you. Uh yeah, we're names. There's a lot of a lot of things moving under the hood uh in the S&Ps and the NASDAQ, but yeah, E- Min's down 50, NASDAQ down 600 now, two and a quarter%.
[02:18:48] We're seeing some red across the board uh from the big names. But yeah, we are going to uh keep on keep on keeping on. See what these markets have for us. TP >> Oh man, I gota do that. >> Um, but yeah, what do what do we what
[02:19:06] with 10 minutes left? >> Uh, I am thinking about uh right now I'm looking at July 8 S&P options. I'm looking at putting on a super bull. I'm
[02:19:18] just waiting um because I want to see if we're going to keep going down lower um or not. But you know what? Why don't we talk about on the other side of a break? join us on the YouTube chat. We'll take a look at the YouTube chat. Give us some
[02:19:31] them over the next 10 minutes. Do a little rapid fire section. We are uh we'll be back in 90 seconds. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[02:21:32] the show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. And we've got a few minutes left here before we kick it over to Liz and Chris at the top of the hour. But uh E- Mini is down 50. Trying to catch a bit a little bit here. NASDAQ down 600, but
[02:21:46] still big names carrying the moves to the downside. Uh I got filled on a gold call diagonal spread here. Long September 380 short the 390 in August for 875. So no upside risk there. Just looking for a continuation there. And
[02:22:01] looking for a continuation there. And then S&P I need a big rally from here. uh got filled when we were 20 30 points higher at uh the 7520 7510 short put spread to finance the 7550 7560 long call spread. So the Super Bowl here uh
[02:22:18] taking it on the chin though with the market down this much but still just need uh a cool 30 points and we'll be back in the green there. But not looking too hot right now. Jamal. Yeah, I'm looking to as we're we're down here. I'm
[02:22:34] looking to see what the market does. I'm I might put one on um for tomorrow. right here. I'm kind of waiting. Plus, it's not lining up right. But uh in the chat here, looking at some some things. Of course, our guy Brandon uh says,
[02:22:47] out to Jonah Hill. Funny you guys had to be there. Uh but let's see questions. I know somebody's just saying, "Look at Oracle, GLW, Marll, Meta." I don't think those are all down now that I realize all the names you mentioned. Meta's up
[02:23:01] and that's actually kind of surprising that Meta's up. Um I'm not sure what the that >> Let's take a stab in that. >> I still have a super bull in there. I
[02:23:14] think I moved it further out a minute. >> Yeah, I like this. I like this setup a I mean, this is a software name. This has been one that moves with the software. Software is mostly up today, but that one's down.
[02:23:27] >> Yeah. 20 point wide diagonal spread for 10 bucks. It's a good good riskreward if you get a reversal here and we're at annual lows. So, uh this kind of feels like one of those situations where maybe you catch a little bounce, but you don't
[02:23:41] really don't need much uh for that kind of setup, especially paying so little uh bucks. So, I was just filled on that. >> Nice. Um somebody Yeah, you know what's having a big day is SIBO. Sibo's having a big
[02:23:55] day. having taken it on the chin a lot recently. SIBO and CME um out of fears >> making a move. >> This was a big selloff here. Uh lots of
[02:24:07] downside move and we we played that. We caught the caught the uh bid right here, I believe. But yeah, seeing a nice bounce from the lows. Uh same thing with >> we'll see if it continues. Yeah, these these products are very similar uh in
[02:24:22] heat from here and here and there, but they're just so big and uh have a ton of cash. So, >> what does it mean when a 30 delta trade gives a higher pop than 70% like has 80% or higher? That's what's happening with
[02:24:37] this S&P zero day I want to do. >> What is what is the zero day? >> Doesn't say the trade, but who knows? Uh maybe selling a put spread or something. that high of a pop, first of all, it's because it's it's uh well, in this case,
[02:24:53] far out of the money on a day like this where we're having, you know, this move, but it's it's technically really far out of the money. It it doesn't again, it's just pricing in what the current inputs of the market are giving you. It's not
[02:25:05] necessarily in this case, it doesn't mean it's not necessarily going to go down that way, but right now those those are the numbers. are the numbers. >> Yeah. Um it it could be basically a uh
[02:25:19] >> yeah if you're looking at a short put spread here 7460 7450 or whatever >> we've already we're already down 50 points. The implied move for the rest of the day is 20 points. So if you position yourself into a sell off like today
[02:25:34] which uh I wish I would have checked the S&P expected move uh for the zero day but it was probably around this number 30 40 [snorts] points. So we're let's say we're at the bottom of the range. If you go down further, it's a decent pot
[02:25:46] you're doing these zero days, especially if you're waiting till like 9:00 a.m. or 10 a.m. to place it, just having a good understanding of the implied move for the rest of the day, whether it's today or even tomorrow, uh once you reach that
[02:26:00] the bottom of the implied range, like I especially if you run that a thousand times. like you're you're going to have a slightly better uh result than if you're just entering it on the open
[02:26:12] regardless of the market moved because you're entering it in at a favorable position and uh especially with these markets, we've seen >> uh bids get bought and uh you know the markets catch a catch a bid and we we
[02:26:25] find the floor. So, we'll see. But uh I did the opposite. I went pre-market thinking we would rip into the open and we did the opposite. So, uh, you win some, you lose some, but still plenty of time remaining in the rest of the
[02:26:39] reverse in, uh, you know, a couple minutes. We've seen it before. So, waiting to see if we go down further and then eventually bounce back. Like, I'm just trying to line up my strikes appropriately. Um, or if we just
[02:26:52] continue sliding. I I don't know how I don't I don't know yet. It's It seems like um I I don't know. I don't I don't see anything that's convincing me to fully get into this trade. At the end, I could also wait till the end of the day
[02:27:04] and put it on too. So, I'm not in a rush to put on a I'm speaking of an S&P super bull trade for tomorrow. I'm not in a rush yet. Yeah. I'm looking at 7525 right now. I mean, where we are here, that's the interesting part, but I don't
[02:27:17] know what if we fall lower. >> Then it wouldn't be good. it's not the same trade for even tomorrow. there's it's not like there's there's a catalyst tomorrow or anything.
[02:27:30] >> Yeah. Sometimes it feels when you have these markets that are kind of like flat are selling off big and then you continue to sell into the morning session. I think to your point if you're placing this right now for the end of
[02:27:45] >> I was wrong. We do have a catalyst tomorrow's FOMC minutes. >> There you go. Well, I think either way it'll it could be a chop until that happens. But I think if you wait until the end of the day, you're going to be
[02:27:59] in a much better situation, especially if we sell off from here. Like if this just continues and continues and we we're down 6070 by the end of the day, which is very possible. Uh given the what we're seeing right now.
[02:28:12] almost makes me want to get a super bear now. It's [laughter] actually because what that dude didn't say anything positive at that last FOMC meeting. we had Kevin on yesterday and I was saying I was going to get into an NDX
[02:28:26] did not. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Uh so that sucks. What was I looking at? 29,000. >> I think I was looking at 29 287
[02:28:41] and 284. I think I was looking at a 300 point >> Mhm. >> Yeah. Oops. That would have been a >> Yeah, it would have been. >> Uh but yeah, they're these are still
[02:28:55] just that's a good example of like if you catch a move like this, you can make you catch a move like this, you can make $1,000 on a $1,000 debit. But uh yeah, I think still if you believe the market's going to continue lower, uh they're
[02:29:08] still relatively cheap all things considered. Ivy Rink at 13, uh Ivy at 24%. You just need to size it correctly for your risk tolerance. I like to keep them between $500 and $1,000 if I'm doing it. Mhm.
[02:29:20] >> Um but yeah, kind of kind of tough to see this market sell off here. >> I may have changed my disposition. I may I may have I might sell the 7500 7510 call spread to buy the 74757460 put spread for tomorrow. If we get a
[02:29:36] credit, I'm putting it on. I'm not even thinking about it. Yeah, >> right now it's jumping around a lot. So >> 40 point implied move for tomorrow. So exceeding that right now. down 50 now in the E- Minis, down 650 in the NASDAQ.
[02:29:49] >> Yep. >> As always, uh we've got a couple of trades on the follow page. We'll place some more throughout the day as the >> Oh, yeah. >> Uh but yeah, keep on keeping on on the
[02:30:04] Tasty Live YouTube channel. Throwing your trade ideas, questions in the right side chat. Uh we got Liz and Chris coming up next on the other side of this coming up next on the other side of this break. You're watching Tasty Live.
[02:30:30] >> I had to rewatch that market measures from this morning. Bodata, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." plunder with headphones on. Light pillaging, maybe. Sometimes I'll hide in
[02:30:45] a gross pete bug in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. >> I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I think I trust market measures more than I trust my savage hellhorbiture.
[02:31:03] slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of severed heads on pikes as a warning thing, but you never know with those thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.
[02:31:22] >> Normally, I hate puns, but that one was okay. >> We built Tasty [music] Trades web platform for today's traders. See it,
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[02:32:19] >> Yes. I bet you can't guess how many hours a week I work. >> 61. >> Oh god. >> So close. >> Oh, my day is starting out great. About
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[02:33:06] doesn't sound right at all. >> Elizabeth and Christopher. I [laughter] like it. >> Nope. Laura, can we start over? >> Nope. Laura, can we start over? >> Try again. [laughter]
[02:33:19] >> Good. I'm glad to see that you are not charred to a crisp, but I was laughing as I was walking my dog telling my husband about your plans with your yard and how you're using kerosene. And he's like, "Is he qualified to do this?" And
[02:33:32] I said, "I don't think so." He's a macroeconomist. [laughter] thousands of years. I think we have it in our blood memory as it were. the exact same problem in our yard and paid lots of money to get rid of it,
[02:33:46] which is ridiculous. But they didn't they just dug it up. They never exploded it. Chris, >> yeah, digging it up is is probably the safer way. But I I also like there's an entertainment factor here. So,
[02:33:58] >> I've let my insurance company know and they're like, "Okay, as long as you're way to do it." So, >> you called your insurance company. >> Yeah. I I like to let them now that I have a new Now that my previous
[02:34:10] too much of their money to repair things. Uh the new one I've been trying to be open with about our problems. It's like, "Hey, yeah, trees falling, letting case." >> Oh, very good. Very good. I guess in
[02:34:23] insurance forgiveness is not easier than permission, but in all other industries, forgiveness is easier than permission >> in most cases. Uh, speaking of semiconductors owe the rest of the market an apology today what they're
[02:34:37] interesting. This is all on the back of really uh very good news. Samsung is "Yeah, demand is actually more sustainable than we thought. So, we're forward." So now in your Mecca e economic view
[02:34:52] like you get that you get that report are you surprised at what Samsung did? positioning in this environment and we've seen it recently um with a lot of these names where you're getting you know we're going from there's not enough
[02:35:06] AI uh and not enough compute out there to maybe we have a little bit more supply coming down the pipeline over the next 12 to 18 months than we thought. Um for the buildout. We don't want uh we've seen it in the trade balance today.
[02:35:19] We've seen it in the CPI data. Uh the bottlenecks in memory are leading to bottlenecks in memory are leading to higher inflation to uh AI inflation that roll off the tongue as I thought as well as it would but it works [laughter] on
[02:35:32] >> Okay. So, I know they're trying to get us to go to confirmance, but talk to me than anybody else on the network. The >> the SK >> the SK No, you're okay. That SK Friday is the day where they are IPOing.
[02:35:46] >> SK High Heinix. >> He Yeah. >> Yeah. So, they're they are IPOing on uh Friday. I think the listing is going to be about $29 billion. So, obviously a much smaller float to absorb than what
[02:35:58] happened with SpaceX. Uh but it >> but not nothing. Not nothing. And >> And I think that is something to consider and you're seeing a rotation away from maybe some of these other memory names in the run-up to an IPO.
[02:36:11] Um, at the end of the day, the only way to get exposure to SKH Highix for most US investors, you had to go through DRAM or EM. EM basically was a 40% plus earlier this year. >> I did not know that and I was in EM. So,
[02:36:25] thank you very much for clarifying that. >> Yeah, everyone's pointing out like, oh, so well after the Iran war. Well, look what's in look look what's inside that yeah, >> that's why they're doing so well.
[02:36:37] >> will that will have a will that have a rotation factor into and out of maybe Micron a little bit more. Would it affect Micron at all? Micron here, but I I like to call it SanDisk here for what it's worth. I was
[02:36:51] just looking uh at the chart because they're down another 11.5% here today. Uh [clears throat] Western Digital is their parent company. They spun them off last February. We learned uh coming into the the market open on June 23rd that
[02:37:04] Western Digital hot and loaded their remaining million plus shares in a private market sale. They swapped with an institutional investor their Sandis They're like, "Hey, we want to reduce our float. You take our SanDisk uh we'll
[02:37:19] use it for like an equation using the volume weighted average price of the two then the >> traders pretty interesting. What is WDC doing right now? >> WDC is down as well. Uh it is off 9.25%
[02:37:35] here. But I find it so fascinating that literally marked the top in the market. That transaction was completed on June 23rd. So the Friday, June 22nd close. We've been a straight line down since that little particular corporate event.
[02:37:47] the top, right? I'll give you my I'll give you my sandisk for your Western ever since. >> Ever since. Hey, we do have confirm and the people want to hear from us. That's why we're here at the end of the day to
[02:38:00] help answer their questions. Liz, can we get into it, Laura? Shall we? >> Let's do it. I can't believe it's July 7th already. [sighs and gasps] >> Feels like it. Like I I turned 37 next
[02:38:14] >> What's your birthday? >> Saturday. Next Saturday. on a on a weekend. >> Can't avoid it. One year. Now, SpaceX, Christopher. SpaceX joins the NASDAQ 100 today with a billion in forced index
[02:38:30] buying into a float that's only 3 to 5% of shares. When a stock has that kind of supply demand imbalance with no real IV history, is there any way to price its options fairly or is it untradeable until the noise settles?
[02:38:45] untradeable, right? But I it's it's I wouldn't say it's a blind premium selling product just yet like we've seen with um you know like a Tesla for example. And that actually is one of the particularities of how the markets
[02:38:58] evolved over the past week or two. Uh trading volumes in Tesla have risen back above where they were in SpaceX. And so it does seem like in uh you know shorter comfortable with and there's a bigger track record there. So I wouldn't say
[02:39:12] different perspective here. >> I don't think it's untradeable at all. I looking at this, I just pulled up SpaceX. 34 million shares have traded a $150 product and you're looking at 10-centent 20 cent wide markets. So,
[02:39:26] interest in there. So, I don't think that um you have to worry about options being unfairly priced unless you see something that's $5 wide or or $2 wide. You're looking at decently tight markets for a brand new product with 34 million
[02:39:40] shares traded. So, I think the options are fairly priced. Um, but I like what you brought up where you said it's not just a blind premium selling because that hasn't been established yet, right? But I don't think I don't think the
[02:39:53] priced. I think that they are. I think that you can you can jump in and as a matter of fact, I have been I'm getting hurt today, but I've been doing two-day two-day two-day selling puts. So, I've been aggressively selling puts right
[02:40:07] in the money and I'll have to move them in 3 days out in time. But you're getting a lot of premium for for taking that risk. call skew in the market. You know, uh I'm was looking at $5 wide from we're
[02:40:21] basically 151. So I'm going up to one, you know, maybe I should go to 157 146. there's a little bit of call skew here in the market right now. Um the question is the same though. Is the market underpricing
[02:40:36] options relative to your expected outcome? And that is the only question >> I think they are fairly priced. I think they are I think when you're looking at it, 34 million shares, options that are 20 cents wide. I don't I think they're
[02:40:49] fairly priced. That's my opinion. >> That that brings into an offshoot kind know, how come you see these small cap stocks? This is just me going on my own tangent here. Why do you see small cap stocks have so much uh have the tendency
[02:41:01] to have much bigger moves around their earnings than mega cap stock? Is because There's less coverage, analyst coverage of these stocks. And so it's news to more people. Fewer people are actually holding this particular, you know, stock
[02:41:14] broader public when something important happens and you get the outsized really good point here. If it's a new volume behind it like we've seen in SpaceX, you can more or less take what
[02:41:26] Thousands of contracts open across the This is the case if you go out to 10, 17, 24. I mean, pick an X-ray out of the hat. You're seeing a lot of interest
[02:41:39] >> The more players you have in the game, the more fairly priced everything is. And you're right about those thinly traded things will move heavily on any the the smaller caps do. While we're on Tesla or SpaceX, I'm sorry. When do you
[02:41:53] think, and you know, I said when, not if, when do you think Tesla and SpaceX are going to when do you think Tesla is going to get merged into SpaceX? >> Yeah. At h later this year, maybe early Elon's lockup ends what? June 27. And I
[02:42:07] >> the full kitten kaboodleoodle is done. So I would say you know a year within 12 >> If we don't hear traction by the ends this year I personally be surprised.
[02:42:19] They actually named >> XAI to Space XAI yesterday. >> So you're just you're seeing the slow merging of the brands all happening. And >> you know, if Elon wants that $1 trillion pay package, it probably makes sense to
[02:42:34] merge the companies. And and Frank just put uh something in the chat saying what look at it. What's next in Tesla? 400 or 415. [clears throat] >> I I don't know. Let me look at it. That's actually funny. [laughter]
[02:42:47] I'll never forget this. It's trading for a 408. So, neither one of these are if it's like a 420, I would say, well, probably 415 first. So, so the question is, is it going up eight or down eight?
[02:43:03] eight or down eight? >> [sighs] This you can see steam coming out of your ears. >> I mean short term it's it's choppy. I
[02:43:16] here? Short iron condor here instead. Can we be directionally neutral? This the markets to May 1st. This thing has traded between 365 and 450 for two and a half months now and we're dab smack in the middle of that range. So
[02:43:31] >> it is we were on we were on the road once we met some viewers. This is back a never forget this. I love when there people think that they know exactly what's happening cuz this guy comes up. He goes if Tesla goes to 420 it's going
[02:43:43] to 620 the next month. And I was like he's like that's where all the open It's going to go from 420 to 620. And I was like I love it. I love people's them from but you can put your money where your mouth is if that is your
[02:43:56] >> Yeah. So, you know, I speaking of a little bit of that conviction here, this months now, and we're sitting dab smack in the middle of it. The volatility in Tesla is pretty good still. I'm looking at the raw volatility of 53 and a half.
[02:44:10] Uh, if I wanted to go just beyond the highs and lows that we've seen in recent highs and lows that we've seen in recent months, so below 365 and above 450, I months, so below 365 and above 450, I can basically risk three to make two
[02:44:22] >> And you're not asking, but I'm giving it anyway. Here's my here's my only caveat Are you in July or are you in August? You're in August, right? >> I'm in August now, which puts us on the other side of earnings.
[02:44:34] other side of earnings. >> I I I will have a hard time going neutral, very small, like small neutral past earnings because what's going to happen is that August implied volatility is going to continue to inflate very
[02:44:46] slowly. So, even if even if Tesla stays within its range, you might be able to it's going to take a lot longer because you even though you can get there, I always said this, it's like running in sand instead of running on pavement.
[02:44:59] lot harder for that premium to come out because the theta is fighting your your other. >> And so, at 38 days, however, Liz, that means as we get into Tesla earnings, that would be at 23 days to expiration
[02:45:14] >> that morning of. And so if I'm a short iron condor, right, and usually 45 and decay curve rolls over. I'd want to get out at 21 days. if you put it on, it's very challenging to get out at 21 days. Even even if time
[02:45:29] to inflate. >> So the 17-day cycle. Then >> if I'm neutral, I stay inside 17. If I selling premium bias, I have no problem going to August. That's just kind of
[02:45:45] where where I where I reside. If you're selling a put spread or you're selling a call spread separately where they're not both sides because what you need now is out of it, you're going to have time to march on and volatility to go into it.
[02:45:58] you're planning on taking it off at 21 days, you it's it's almost like a battle. Now, people trade like this. trying to talk you into or out of anything, but if I was trading Tesla, I
[02:46:11] wouldn't be directionally neutral going through earnings. you know. Then looking at it before earnings at 13 days to expiration, if you wanted to just ride this thing into the ground, is the 60cent credit for
[02:46:27] >> $40 risk. >> Once again, I would bring it in a little there. You you're you're pretty wide out, but wrap it around the um what's that thing called? the standard deviation move on both sides. Right? So
[02:46:40] standard deviation away. You're getting 129 on a $5 wide. And that is that would be more my speed with earnings on the >> Let's send it. Confirm and send. >> And I just talked into a short-term
[02:46:54] trade. Good job. >> I We're learning new things these days, Uh if the market keeps holding near highs but fewer stocks are actually differently? For example, would you cut position sizing across the board? avoid
[02:47:06] correlated tech trades or use define structures even when you have a strong >> So I think size is what helps you sleep at night. Um you know you can't buy the I'm giving all I'm giving all the analogies and your risk is defined in
[02:47:21] order entry. So if you're feeling this and actually writing it down on paper, I would cut my size down across the board, right? And so sometimes when I'm doing across the board if I'm if I'm looking at things differently and all of a
[02:47:35] sudden I think it's near highs, but few are actually participating. There's nothing wrong with siz sizing down or or closing some things or putting some hedges on. But a lot of times if you're trying to articulate this, then you
[02:47:47] trying to articulate this, then you might want to reduce your size. But I do Chris. And I think risk is a personal question because you and I might have we different risk profiles and different risk tolerances. But it is a personal
[02:48:02] this or writing it down, I would say maybe pull your size back a little bit. >> Uh and for the first part here, do you size trades differently? Do you cut size trades differently? Do you cut position sizing across the board? Um no,
[02:48:15] not necessarily. I mean in 2024 and 2025 wasn't the whole complaint in the market stocks that were pulling this thing up. Yeah, if you looked at the S&P 493, it >> Well, I'm trading ES. I'm not trading ES493 here.
[02:48:31] >> So, what are the biggest components of the index is doing in that case? As long as they're holding up, then the index can move higher. Um, but to find risk directional view up here, it it totally depends on the the market. If we have
[02:48:44] curve is in, you know, a steep contango, if there's positive technical drift, I might buy out of the money call spreads to take a little bit of risk and I can the heavy lifting. Um, I'm not selling puts nakedly ever up here ever up here
[02:49:00] in these. [laughter] I might buy maybe maybe buy a naked, but like never ever just to me seems insane. >> And you're just saying in the g if the are we we talked about this today when I was on with Mike and I think you did too
[02:49:14] um with Mike and Jeral they there are cyclical things that you can go into and sell puts right so just the market is at alltime highs you can take a look around I think today we're down >> yeah healthcare insurance we were
[02:49:26] talking about insurance I think those names are those names are the ones that down >> kie the insurance ETF is at a new all-time high this was a this was a favorite little ETF of after the
[02:49:39] that Los Angeles neighborhood a few year was it last year? >> Uh Dylan Illy and I were talking about how like oh this is the biggest loss in companies aren't taking a big hit because they're too big to fail. I only
[02:49:53] wish I had more in my pocket at $55. But yeah, it's it today's the defensive like XLV. XLV looks like it's breaking out bottom left to top right. >> I mean that looks really good. I could sell premium 60 IVR 61 IVR. could sell a
[02:50:07] something that's going up as opposed to trying to catch a falling knife. So, um the sizing to me it I mean I I really don't think about that um in terms is the chart setup there, is the volatility there, um are
[02:50:21] the market preconditions there. If the answers are yes, then I get to the size, >> and figure out what I want to do. It's like the fourth question. But it's that that is so and like I said I say this my kids are 20 and 19 but whenever
[02:50:35] getting like a half of a story I always say I need more sugar like give me more information on this and so with a question like that you almost need more almost [clears throat] from a mom's perspective if you're asking this
[02:50:47] big. >> Laura we can go to question number three here uh with this is a zero DTE one. >> Yes. just disappeared on me. Uh for zero DTSPX, how do you know when the credit
[02:51:01] really about selling outside the expected move or is the bigger edge enough to take the trade? I think a little bit of is challenging and I would love TP to come in here and
[02:51:15] talk to me about this as well because we've talked about this at length. A lot they're bringing up all this stuff. Those zeros, you got to remember the Greeks are theoretical Greeks, right? So when you have these zeros, some of the
[02:51:29] There's going to be a higher implied volatility because those options have to have some some level of price in them, right? There has to be some price in some volatility in there. So the the Greeks and the zeros kind of get thrown
[02:51:42] out the window. So you just I I look at them from saying the expected move is what I'm doing it. The market is smarter than me. And if it's a liquid product, which S&P is, the market is pricing in where it's expected to be. If you look
[02:51:56] at where the expected move is, uh that's where I really hang my hat on for those for those zeros because a lot of the Greeks get kind of jumbled up in that >> I mean, I I don't think most credits are worth the gamma risk in and SPX or even
[02:52:09] in any of the zero DTE because you just for how much risk is in the position given how quickly things can move, you have to get paid quickly on it. So I know for example like when I started trading zero DTS and started dabbling to
[02:52:22] different style than how I normally operate in the market. Um I would start doing things like selling outside the expected move. And that can work on a catalyst. If you don't have earnings, especially these days, it's not just
[02:52:35] earnings last night are catalyzing today's market. Okay. Um so if you don't have that earnings, you don't have a Fed day a CPI, then sure, maybe you stay those days where you have those catalysts around the corner, a Fed
[02:52:49] speech, a Trump event that's related to terrorists or what have you, um inside terrorists or what have you, um inside or just outside the expected move can blast radius of the position. >> It can be. It can.
[02:53:01] >> And so like that's how I've experienced it. So I mean I I don't think the answer is find a strike far enough that makes >> Oh no, no. your riskreward has to be there because safe is not safe doesn't
[02:53:15] exist in zero DTE. >> And the [clears throat] other thing with says SPX after it. I don't know. I mean, I've got decent sized accounts, but I'm not zinging naked SPX, right? So, no one I know is these are defined risk. Every
[02:53:29] So, you have to you have to find out how much risk definition you want. So, no one if you can you go to the zeros just and um open up the zerodt and just sell show how no one is doing this. Pick a put. It doesn't matter. Yeah. It's uh
[02:53:44] $149,000. No, no, there is zero. There is zero risk, right? >> I personally don't think so. I mean, look, there's a checklist here. uh if the credit is small, if you have a day
[02:53:58] your shoulder, if you've seen that recently the realized moves in the have been higher than the implied moves, you probably don't want to do a zero GT bounds of the expected move. >> No, I'm going to have a different I have
[02:54:13] different opinion. very different opinion because the SIBO floor we would get a piece of research from Jacob and the mechanicalness of it really changed my
[02:54:26] mind on this because what he is saying what they had said over and over again is lather rinse repeat. So, if you're defined risk and you pick a you pick a strategy and say it's the expected move at 9:00, you're selling a $5 wide put or
[02:54:38] a $10 wide put. Um, even on the days where there is news, but you just do it without fail. Um, it winds up being a high probability trade because you're high probability. Now, I would never do it at the money. You're going to go
[02:54:51] pretty far out. But, so it was just kind of like these selling premium. Not both sides. The iron condor can be blown out of the water, but you pick one side or the other. And if you do them mechanically without thinking about the
[02:55:04] macroe economist point behind it or the numbers behind it, it can really work out. And I I've had my kids doing that as well because they're good at blindly following it. I have the emotional saying, "Oh, there's a Fed meeting or
[02:55:17] oh, this I'm not going to do it." But they put it in without fail. And lo and behold, the market the market does what the market wants whether there's news or not news. So it it if if you're mechanical about your entrance and your
[02:55:30] But I that's what I'm saying. I like your trading style because you are a true macroeconomist. So when you take your opinions and you overlay complex option strategy on top of it, that's when the real magic happens. Um instead
[02:55:45] to do it every day and let >> I have my heruristics, right? Because some rules in place to prevent me from overtrading and doing things that I'm not comfortable with, right? And so, uh, you're right. Uh, maybe maybe if I'm a
[02:55:59] separate these thoughts, it'd be a little bit easier for me to take that >> It's fascinating. It's a been a fascinating experience for me having the the research from Jacob and then trying to implement it with with especially
[02:56:11] with my son because God bless him, he's very cute, but he he doesn't know what goes to the expected move, sells one, buys one, and closes it and walks away. And he's doing very well. So for a college kid, he's risking about $400 to
[02:56:24] you think it out loud, but nine times out of 10, he keeps it. So the 10th out makes, you know, eight times to make it up. And over average, he's made about $50 a day. So the the mechanicalness of it now, it's only been about 9 months,
[02:56:42] but the mechanicalness of not thinking, sometimes I watch it go through and I was like, yikes, he did it today. We've got a jobs report. You know, Paul's [laughter] >> Don't let him learn those things.
[02:56:55] >> I know. I know. >> Please, please let it die with me. Okay. >> No, I like it. I like I I really like the fact that it's like your your knowledge is so different than ours. >> Uh we have one more question here and
[02:57:09] answer first and I'll end us out. With gold getting pulled between the dollar rates and geopolitical risk, how would you decide whether the better option structure is a calendar and iron condor or a broken wing butterfly? Actually,
[02:57:21] Liz, I I want to take this here. The first half of the question does not dollar rates, geopolitical risk. That's all that's all noise. If it's if that to show up in the options pricing. >> Oh, thank God.
[02:57:35] >> The options [laughter] Yeah. Right. The options pricing will tell you then what toolbox. If it's going to be something like a short iron condor or a jade lizard or a a Super Bowl, right, Liz? So, I mean, geopolitics only matters in
[02:57:49] so far as the market cares about it. It's why a month ago when oil started collapsed, I was saying things like the war is over. Even though the bullets are signal that the war is over once the volatility broke.
[02:58:03] volatility broke. >> Yeah, I I Chris, very well said. >> See, I'm learning things from you guys. I, you know, I I sometimes I'm off on Wednesdays and there's a Fed meeting and I go, I just know they all think that
[02:58:15] I'm sitting at home with like a bowl of popcorn just watching JPA. It's like, what's going on just so I can get rid of this stereotype. Okay, [laughter] >> we all know you do it. You you know all you know his every move, everything he's
[02:58:28] Luke home from the hospital was I sat >> I believe it. >> Literally literally the first thing. All right, I'm uh I'm making a jerk out of myself. Liz, it's always good to see you
[02:58:41] in the morning here. We're gonna take a quick break. Gus and Errol are coming up quick break. Gus and Errol are coming up next. You've been watching Tasty Life.
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[03:00:54] going. I make $4.97 every second that I work. And if I don't going to go crazy. >> Okay. >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M.
[03:01:06] >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4. No, things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value.
[03:01:19] >> 5. >> Feebleness. >> That's a sad one. $112. >> I have a toughy for you. >> Me and you? >> Yeah. Did we have a price?
[03:01:31] >> Yeah. Did we have a price? >> Yeah. Two cents. We [snorts] should have >> Yeah. We could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. [laughter] >> I wouldn't even pick that up off the street.
[03:01:45] >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than it is on me. >> Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know what though? There's money to be made at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37?
[03:01:59] >> I'm 26. >> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. I think you could sell those little lady eggs of yours and make quite a profit online. But I wouldn't wait too long.
[03:02:11] time, especially if they keep eating the way you're eating. >> I got to take off. H, time is money. >> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I
[03:02:25] don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down. It slows me down. [bell]
[03:02:37] Tuesday. We're getting a little bit of some volatile action in the market. on the day. Uh as we get into things, brother Gus, how we doing today? started to do the intro just now. I tried to tried to run over you there.
[03:02:50] [laughter] even hear that. >> No, I just I just hit the what and then too because if I'm in that chair, I do the Whoever's in that chair does the before. [laughter] >> Yeah, I always always have to think
[03:03:03] >> Yeah, as as the intro was playing, I was like, is it me? got got everything moving in the right direction for me today in a portfolio context. A little sad about that game last night. No more macro context, but
[03:03:15] football season, people. It's it's [laughter] right around the corner. We weeks ago, and I don't care about it again. So, >> No, unironically though, I mean, yeah, good good little run. It is not not a
[03:03:27] not a major sport for us. It was it was fun to uh it was fun to see us uh you of a showing. Give give the country a little bit of excitement. I really was bringing there for a little while. Uh yeah, hope it's a hope it's a good
[03:03:40] off in like 20 minutes, I believe. >> I'm I'm really excited. you know, even really have to get into the loss because the team definitely feels that one. I mean, I don't want to dog pile on them because they had a ton of pressure on
[03:03:53] their backs. But I will say for the sake of soccer in America, I'm really glad from the young generation is going to be a lot different over the next 10 to 20 years. Um, and everybody remembers their first World Cup where they were like
[03:04:06] pretty exciting. So from that from that perspective, I think that's one of the only ways to grow more homegrown talent in America is this needs to become a little bit more popular. I think people need to see the vision for why soccer
[03:04:19] think a lot of young young players at 2, 3, 4, 5 years old will start getting into thosemies at a younger age so that we can actually compete at a high level on uh the world stage because again I think yesterday shined a light on the
[03:04:32] lack of experience and just the the the quality of ball that's played at that >> yeah. Yeah, I agree. I think it'll I think this will do a lot to Yeah. you know, show show the whole nation that we can be competitive at this
[03:04:45] pour some more resources into it. Um yeah, and I you know, and like you said, really have good memories of like like you know, good meaning I remember it well is 2014, which was the last time that the US was in the round of 16. And
[03:04:59] we also lost to Belgium. I remember watching that game live as well. So I'm this point. They keep they keep taking my happiness away. No, I've I've been to great effort from the boys and and we'll see uh see what they can put together in
[03:05:13] Football. [laughter] You hear saying no, I thought it was funny that the game was Football. >> Monday Night Football. Exactly. Exactly. >> yeah. Uh but no, with that being said, we can go ahead jump into the TC
[03:05:25] market, see what's been going on. Uh market's been selling off on the day as have volatility expanding a little bit more. And then another link that Gus had sent me this morning was the headline with the Iranian attack in the straight
[03:05:39] Hormuz >> Hormuz. There we go. Every time [laughter] >> They've always looked at me kind of >> I did have to look up this pronunciation and make a Tik Tok like some time ago.
[03:05:53] me in the comments if I if I dared to pronounce this word wrong. Yeah, yeah, Hormuz is >> Hormuz. Hormuz the straight of Hormuz. So, another Iranian attack causing uh oil to catch a bit on the day. And I
[03:06:07] mean, it's a long time coming because we've seen a lot of downside action on time now, especially after the significant rally that we put in. And if chart, you can see exactly what we're talking about here. So, as we
[03:06:20] mean, it felt like watching paint dry a little bit here. We got long a little bit early in our position. Um, let me go to for/mcl the smaller um oil product there. Um, but we had gotten long into one of these positions here. And now
[03:06:34] it makes us feel a little bit more comfortable. Unfortunately, for some of product is still down a pretty significant amount. We had purchased a 110 call expiring July 17th for oil and then we sold an out- of the money put
[03:06:49] spread $5 wide. Uh, we collected about a $1.70 uh on order entry there. So, these bit more time under its belt. If we continue to catch a bid on USO, we should see some some better upside action. Uh, I guess for a lack of a
[03:07:03] happens there. But able to take advantage of the MCL futures contract there. That's nice. That's kind of hedging this USO position a little bit more. Um, and if we make new lows in the oil market, I'm going to go ahead and
[03:07:15] cut this position. So, if we make new lows, I don't want to continue to catch like I was catching just for a little bit there. But, we're going to hold on to that one a little bit longer. Um, and then with some of the downside action,
[03:07:27] apparently the US losing was bearish for the overall market because literally market continued to sell off lower. Obviously, I'm joking, but the market lower. I was able to get some more opportunities off of some of the levels
[03:07:41] of value that we had marked off over here on NASDAQ that we'll get a little bit more into as I accidentally move this. This should be at 29,900 value somewhere up here. Market was looking pretty weak. So, I was like, you know
[03:07:55] level of value. If we would have made new highs, I would have cut the off a little bit lower, attacking these lows that's sitting inside that level of value there. Uh, we had also purchased a QQQ put yesterday as well, just seeing
[03:08:09] market could could have continued higher, but another thing that we were paying attention to was this kind of swing high that I got to go back to QQ was this swing high that we were sitting inside of uh right right over here. So,
[03:08:22] if we if we draw this price line over here, this was really what we were got that rally to the upside, we just wanted to see, you know, which way the or downside because you kind of see that range that we're sitting in. Um, and
[03:08:35] then we also purchased a a QQQ put, but I took that off at the open and I could I missed the meat of the move and it just that's those natural emotions. You then you always feel like you missed out on a little bit more. Uh, but I took it
[03:08:47] to sell off lower. Taking out last Thursday's swing low. So, putting a there. But that's what we were looking at. I have no more short positions on
[03:08:59] the market as of now, just cuz this is a pretty this was a pretty this was a do zoom out there, you know, we were trading at these levels at the beginning of next week. So, who knows? By the end of this week, we could be back at the
[03:09:11] highs, but that's what we did over here in the portfolio. Um and then and then in the portfolio. Um and then and then SPX or SpaceX, I'm sorry, SpaceX. [laughter] SpaceX um has been very lackluster just kind of sitting on that
[03:09:23] bit, but trying to collect some theta on the way. It is an out of the money put spread that we sold. So, it's nice. It's a premium position, but it's uh it's a >> Yeah, maybe we got to start calling this uh Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
[03:09:36] the two separated because I also do the SPX SpaceX infusion a lot. Yeah, SPX SpaceX infusion a lot. Yeah, >> 100%. SpaceX, SPX. Yeah, Space Space What does >> what we'll be calling this for moving
[03:09:49] >> what we'll be calling this for moving forward. Um, remind me what your uh >> strategy was in USO. >> Oh, USO. It was very similar to just the market had uh been a little bit oversold to the downside. So, wanted to get long
[03:10:01] a little bit earlier. Whenever we continue to sell off lower and lower and positions. So then that's why I felt confident to take the oil futures contract because I recognized I was so early on the USO positions. That was
[03:10:15] >> Sure. So you went for that's basically just a it's a what 105 110 spread with a >> Sprinkle of sugar. >> Yeah, it was actually that that that think maybe 2 or 3 days later. So it wasn't necessarily it's all one position
[03:10:31] but it was an on order entry. >> No, I I have lots like that. I'm short kind of have individual positions on that one overall position of that. and kind of Yeah. attack, you know, different things differently. And then
[03:10:44] you got to every time you pull this up, you got to like piece them apart. Okay, thesis there? How should I manage this? >> Yeah. And a little bit of the thought put spread and then also buying that call was if we were to get that initial
[03:10:57] pop in oil, it would have been nice to take advantage of that directional move not selling it. And it's like we could have then just taken the call off and ride because it benefits from TDK over. >> Yeah, I was going to say I mean it's
[03:11:09] just don't have to post up the two grand of buying power whatever it would be to That makes sense. >> Yeah. Uh but yeah, no, that's what we again is getting a little bit of a bid because uh it was getting a little quiet
[03:11:22] and when things get quiet, I don't know. I don't know how I feel about that. Are leg to the downside after we load up more positions here or are we going to for? But it's looking like we're getting that pop. If we can trade it around 7170
[03:11:34] on oil, I'll get out of this position. Um, this one's going to be a boomer I'll use my stop loss. I think right now I'm long I don't I'm not sure why it's about 67.89, I believe. >> So, if we make a new low in the market,
[03:11:48] because these futures contracts can get pretty aggressive against you. It's not going to keep pulling that account down until you So >> yeah, oil definitely larger downward bias right now, too. We're get catching
[03:12:02] don't want to don't want to take your eyes off that one for too long. Exactly. backyard as I I know you're getting to some of those comments. chat here. What's going on everybody in chat? E Media, Big Deal, Theta Trader,
[03:12:16] Lots of Ted Ted Lasso references happening. I see Big Deal missed one. I Ted Lasso, though. I hear it's very good, perhaps. I say, "Who is Ted >> Oh, really? >> Uh, before I get absolutely roasted in
[03:12:30] iconic like '8s thing or whatever. It's on on Netflix or I don't know, one of the streaming services. Somebody somebody can let me know. Um, but it's it's a recent show about a uh fictional
[03:12:43] Rexom? Is it about a real soccer team and the show is just fictional? >> Sure. Sure. Yeah, I I could see that. >> Ju just off the the first image that I >> Yeah. No, it's just uh it's it's like a a a drama a drama comedy about about a
[03:12:59] European football team and it's like they're it's the whole >> arc? Apple TV. Yes. Thank you, Mr. Pill. >> Sounds like that that's that that's as an American coach? >> I I I think so. I think that's the whole
[03:13:11] I'm wrong. Like I said, I haven't seen the show, but I think it's like he takes like an American sports mentality to them and like he's like talking in like know. I might be totally out of line here. Like I said, everything with a
[03:13:25] grain of salt. Um, Rexom, I know Rexim is a real team, but is Rexo the is Rexom the team in Ted Lasso or am I am I mixing that up? Is it a fictitious team in Ted Lasso? I'm not sure. Um, but yeah, it's a good good you might you
[03:13:38] >> Yeah, it's Apple Apple TV. >> Oh, all right. Apple TV's is a sleeper. it up. Yeah, they they do have some good stuff. >> yeah. What's been in your backyard? I Hey, you were talking about Rivian the
[03:13:52] talking about that channel that it typically trades in and how it usually >> Indeed. Yes. I would I would be remissed if I didn't lead off talking about Rivian here. Um yeah, it's it's Rivian.
[03:14:04] >> I mean, you hit it to the tea. >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Here we go. Every time every time Rivian starts moving up, they find a way to immediately shoot around, they issued 75 million new shares to raise capital. uh in a longer
[03:14:18] term bullish context, which is kind of how I how I view Rivian. I am a these short these short-term bearish trades. Uh I don't really know that I mind them issuing these new shares. I I think in the long term when it all
[03:14:30] I'd rather them have the little bit of cash on hand. But in the short term, obviously, that is dilution and the market is is not going to like that. Uh continued sinking lower all day, down
[03:14:42] about 15% uh from yesterday's close, now trading at 1715. And yeah, I mean it's just yeah, here here we go. Uh, Rivian, this is this is what happens every time. Every time we go test this 181 1920 level, it just gets a affirmative
[03:14:55] lows. I'm hoping that we'll continue down to the lows here. Uh, I know some people are are in this position alongside me, but I have a 1615 bearish call spread at 17 DTE. I put on 10 of these because they were very cheap. So,
[03:15:08] out of now. I didn't even I wasn't even thinking about the fact that I had 10. I'm going to scale out of four of these. I don't want to do exactly half. I'd down will keep coming. But as long as we're we're up, you know, 20 30% on this
[03:15:22] take off four of my 10. So, leaving six of those to run. Uh 17 DTE, which is July 24th, looking for a return to sub 15 for Rivian. If we get the sub 15 going to go ahead and take these off because on the other end of this
[03:15:37] channel, it always bounces straight off the the 134 15 level. As soon as we test those, we just go right ripping right back to the highs. So, uh, yeah, I'm not >> break even on this one. >> Yeah. No. Yeah. This is And this isn't
[03:15:49] I'm going to try to squeeze out every last dollar of of profit that I can. If I'm just going to take these profits and take off 40% of my risk there with that exit as well. Uh, and and and profitably
[03:16:03] so up uh yeah, yeah, something to the tone of 30% on these right now after the big down move today. So, I'm I'm content to to take that uh you know, and at least leave some others to run. Leaving six gives me room to get out three and
[03:16:16] >> You feel you feel better emotionally now that you can't do all the quick math off the top of my head, but probably covered the six with that exit. So, there's there's a little bit of house money in the
[03:16:28] equation here as well. Um but yeah, here here we go. Rivian, it's it's the it's say it every time Rivian goes up. I say it every time Rivian goes down. for not you're missing out. Rivian loves to
[03:16:42] >> This is the epitome of what goes up must come down. What goes down must go up. >> Ah, thank you. Thank you, chat. Welcome to Rexom is not the same as Ted Lasso. Two different TV series. That's why I'm associating Rexom with TV
[03:16:55] I've been thinking about your Rivian position. Good, Mr. Pillows. Yeah, happy Yeah. going going swimmingly for us right now. What's going on, Ranch? Good need to watch it, says Darren. Okay. Uh yeah, everybody everybody bullish Ted
[03:17:09] to watch it. I just don't do a lot of TV in general. There's there's lots that I >> Yeah. >> Um Yeah. No, Rivian doing Rivian things. You know, you know what's funny about selling these shares on the inside?
[03:17:23] Usually when it's like a when it's usually like a crappy company, selective Whenever it's a very crappy company, whenever it's like under $10, whenever hear the company is selling shares on the inside, that's like death to the
[03:17:37] see whenever you have a company that has good fundamentals and is a legitimate around on the streets. I mean, there's a there's a Rivian Garage, I think, just a of the studio. So, with it being such a legitimate company, it is funny that the
[03:17:51] perception on the company selling shares from the inside to raise capital is seen standpoint into like a Rivian standpoint. And when I'm saying small cap, I mean anything from like a billion and under. Like that's very small for
[03:18:03] how the perspective in the emotions about hearing the company selling shares different because all hell breaks loose whenever a crappy company does it. smaller companies will like to do that cuz they recognize my stock might I
[03:18:18] is going to be at this price point. So a lot of times they take advantage of that to sell some shares off onto some of their investors. Sometimes it's kind of a murky waters there. But anyways, to see Rivian do that, I think that they're
[03:18:30] on. >> Yeah. Yeah, I I agree. And like I said, time frame, I I have no doubt that with this capital. And it's a it's a capital intensive business to be in
[03:18:42] capital intensive business to be in trying to manufacture electric vehicle. know, capture the the luxury EV niche a little bit more. day. I mean, Tesla again is trying to shift into more that Honda narrative,
[03:18:57] >> Um, so somebody can come swoop up the luxury EV uh market, I'm sure they could do it, but yeah, it's it's an expensive game. You need assembly plants to to put all the things together. The batteries are usually the
[03:19:11] companies. I I must admit, I'm not sure exactly what the bottleneck is for Rivian, but more batteries never hurt an EV company. Uh, and they've upgraded production is already going well, and it's only going to get stronger. I do
[03:19:24] but yes, in the short term, obviously, empirically, this dilutes shares. So, >> from a trader standpoint, volatility is opportunity. [laughter] you? >> Um, Baxter International, BAX. This is
[03:19:37] before, and I actually went out of my way to make sure I could thank the trade. Shout out to House House Republican Michael T. McCall, >> who who put this one on. Um, I saw him grab $300,000 of this back in March.
[03:19:52] especially because I'd never seen his name pop up before. And whenever like these if if you keep up with the with the Congress trading lists, you'll see I don't even think are like being shady. They're just very active traders. Lloyd
[03:20:05] Dogit, Gilbert Ray Cisneros, there's uh Ro Conan or something like that. It's Um there's like a regular cast of characters here. So whenever I see of characters pop up, I always give it a side eye. particularly when they're
[03:20:19] throwing around six figures. Like this D House Republican David Taylor, I've never seen him before. Bought some Chevron, but it's he bought, you know, that. That seems like a reasonable investment. [laughter] Um, you know, so
[03:20:32] >> get your bread up. >> Yeah. Whenever I see an unknown name buying a lot of something, the alarm bells start to go off. So I blindly followed into this this Baxter trade. I just have one January 21st, 2028
[03:20:47] time. I was like, I don't know what the thesis is. I don't know what this guy to give this plenty of time. It's a S&P 500 company that's coming off as low as terrible buy in the first place. And there was like a month there where I was
[03:21:01] like, you know, uh what what are we doing, Mr. McCall? We're fat running [laughter] finger this? There was two of them actually, too. It was a 250 and >> Um so, I guess yeah, couldn't couldn't have fat fingered it. But now, now I see
[03:21:14] know what's happening to drive this company up. It's just the process. simple though. Sometimes you don't you don't have to know what's happening. little shady. And then all of a sudden, here we are uh sitting now what 30 40%
[03:21:31] lows when I initially scooped this. So, uh yeah, going going very well on Baxter. Um I don't even what what even was my spot on this? Let me see. I entered this. I was waiting for for Nancy Pelosi, but no, you you caught me
[03:21:46] off guard with [laughter] the other. >> I did I did take one of them off. I I I entered two of these at uh 155 each. Uh I took one off at 230 uh on the 2nd of this month as we started this climb. So, I'm just holding my one runner now. Uh
[03:22:00] 155 average currently trading at like 230. So, uh we're up Yeah, I mean, yeah, about about Yeah, a little over 50% here. Um yeah, almost exactly 50%. So, yeah, we continue to continue to climb. I don't know if this 35 strike call will
[03:22:14] ever be in the money. Uh but with 2028 as my expiration cycle, I have plenty of if we want to fill this next gap up to the 28 level. So, shout out to shout out >> 100%. And I mean 35 uh we were trading there just what end of March uh
[03:22:26] beginning of April. So, it feel it feels like we're such a far uh from from a time standpoint, you can see how much ground this thing can make up in a short amount of time. So, >> do you believe in miracles? SPX back to
[03:22:39] by the end of the day. Do we believe in miracles? S&P back to what was the >> Uh 7550. >> 7550. Okay. Where is that sitting right now on the chart? 7550. 7550.
[03:22:51] 7550 here. Oh, back to the day high. Uh do we believe in miracles? How much time do we have left today? It's 10:30. It's 10:53 central time. 11. We got what? 4 that does not seem very farfetched either.
[03:23:03] >> It could happen in this market. It could happen. I The funny part is I don't even the office. >> I mean, that's a it's a it's even know. I don't know if I would use the word miracle or tail risk. You know,
[03:23:16] what is the >> what's the expected move here on the on >> uh 7525 >> 7525. >> So, 7550 is just inside the second standard deviation. So, not not quite
[03:23:32] technically tail risk, but I see that is we are moving towards the tail there. you know, in a in a bell curve context, we're pricing in like, I don't know, five or 6% chance of of getting to 7550, but it could happen. There are worse
[03:23:45] something. >> I mean, I'm curious what we were pricing going to lie, the market is selling off to the downside. I was a little bearish, far. Guess I'm a little still bitter from covering that position right at
[03:23:58] But I'm curious what the options chain was actually saying in the morning and in that downside move as the market opened up this morning. So anyways, with is there. It could do it. It could happen. Maybe Trump wants to come out.
[03:24:11] You're always one. I mean, you're literally one tweet away. I mean, lastly with the USA headlines and you know, the cards, it's just so funny understand anything can happen. Any headline can happen. Uh but to see that
[03:24:25] like you know legit anything can happen because if you think about it if you're a sports better like that probably changes like it's not you're not a it's could say like that probably changes your expectations a little bit and it's
[03:24:38] something about the trader her moves that's going to change my expectations a little bit there. So anyways with that being said expectations expectations 7550 maybe we get there four hours left. >> Yeah and those two things trading and
[03:24:51] neither party wants to hear it, but it's all it's all if you're doing if you're headlines >> small small size, law of large numbers, 1% edges make money over time. It's it's the it's the exact same principle.
[03:25:03] >> Yeah. And Yeah. And then again, we got the headlines, right? Like that. imagine seeing certain headlines in sports would change my certain certain >> Oh, yeah. And and much like the market, you if if you are somehow on the ball
[03:25:17] enough, you can beat the market to that information before the lines move in. but when the when the Bagun red card got lifted I I raced in to bet USA uh to advance at - 110 because they still had the game at a pick and then 20 minutes
[03:25:31] out to - 160 by the time the game was played and obviously didn't pan out for inherent EV there and yes it's it's very similar if you can frontr run the market >> Trump should have hit me up man before you [laughter] come on Trump come on man
[03:25:47] got anything else kind of catching your attention today. Um, I suppose the only haven't talked about it since I put it on is elite. Ali T is the ticker. Uh, they just did a uh reverse split. So, I'm in a whole interesting situation
[03:26:02] here. You can see a nice run happening. I I forget it was months ago now. Um, 125 days ago, in fact, so last not not quite last year, but four months ago, chat when I joked that I was looking for some pennies to throw on. Uh, I am
[03:26:16] pretty much exactly at break even on this, but I have a weird situation. So, this, but I have a weird situation. So, >> I had 50 shares. They did a 1 to 10 reverse split. So, that took my shares down to five. That's clean. But I do
[03:26:28] have a pre-split five call, which is actually 50 now >> is is the way that that translates. >> Uh, so I have the weird NS tag. I'm sure held option through a split before. Um, so fundamentally doesn't really change
[03:26:43] anything except liquidity is going to be really really weird. I I I might have a split, but it was basically at zero anyway, and I figured that the split would do something like this. So, I decided it was worth taking a shot. Um,
[03:26:56] ever able to get out of that five call. But my my my now my now five shares, formerly 50 shares, are at exactly break even. Down 60 cents. That's not an option. 60 cents. That's 60 cents as in I'm down 12 cents a share. Just moved
[03:27:09] into 38 cents. We're down 3 cents a share. So, uh getting closing closing that gap there. >> Hoping for some more upside. I bought this because it was a penny. It's now split and it's not technically a penny
[03:27:21] fundamentally changed. It's a whole weird situation. All I know is there's a gap to fill up to 25. [laughter] So, let's let's do that. now this is this has a lot of momentum off its bottom so far. I mean, four or
[03:27:33] five consecutive days to the upside been putting in larger ranges that we've seen too. So, maybe things are starting to expand. Uh if we can get it, we got that and and then again because it's a cheaper underlying you know it's not to
[03:27:46] things like this could put in just like with Rivian being down a buck and a half it's down over 10% on the day it's 15% so uh everything's relative for sure expected move at open was around 31
[03:28:00] curious let's let's quickly see where that was at and then we'll take a quick look at VIX before we wrap for the day was that 31 is is saying >> the expected move was 31 >> 31 31 31. Where was that at this
[03:28:15] morning? 30 74 31. >> Yes. >> Okay. Um, let's see. And we opened up at Where did we open up at SPX real quick? >> We opened this morning 8 8:30.
[03:28:32] Okay. Uh, it's looking like we opened here 75 7516. We opened up at uh so what 30 points from there is going to be what? 35 40. Yeah. >> Well, no. It would be 85 coming down.
[03:28:47] >> Well, no. It would be 85 coming down. Yeah. >> 85? I mean, we've almost >> Yeah. bottomed right around the
[03:28:59] that? How how about the market the market technicals just working >> Is math. >> Math checks out. Robert knows his stuff. >> As I started to [laughter] look at the rest of the scale off to the right side
[03:29:13] wow. We really bought >> it was right there." Yeah, how about >> Anyway, that being said, let's quickly check out the volatility index before we >> Uh, so far down on the day as the market is recovering here, we put in a high on
[03:29:25] VIX at around 1664. So, 1610 VIX we're sitting at right now. We're on the one out to the daily at least get a better perspective there. Uh, yeah, sitting at crushed, but that's great for some premium positions, managing some
[03:29:38] little bit of profit, but we are running out of time here. Anything else top of >> No, nothing else for me. Uh, Rivian. Yeah, I I stay on the I stay on the back to the moon. That's that's what we need right now. So, hope you make some
[03:29:52] International, keep doing what you're doing. I don't know what it is. I don't does in the first place, but keep doing it. It's going well. >> Yes. Uh, with that being said, guys, >> congratulations Ranch on the SPX Zero
[03:30:05] you. Thank you. Good job, Ranch. All right, that's all I got. thanks for taking the time to hang out with us for a day. There we go. In the hang out with us uh on the day. We'll be back managing these positions for the
[03:30:20] for more more amazing content coming on next. We'll be back in a couple hours and we'll catch you guys next time.