[00:08] What's up, JC Nation? Welcome to the show. Happy Friday. It is July 31st, almost August. Kind of crazy to say, but Amazon Oh my god. [laughter]
[00:21] awake now. Uh, [laughter] Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the close yesterday. Amazon is up and Apple is down. Microsoft and Meta had a divergence as well. Meta's down, Microsoft's up. And uh it's been a crazy
[00:35] day and now I'm awake. Jamal, how you doing? [laughter] I'm doing fantastic. We have no shortage of things to talk about. I mean, it's been a crazy week. We had the Fed, we have these earnings, as you mentioned,
[00:47] and seeing the divergence in them is has been fascinating. Um we had uh you know, obviously still hot takes from the Iran war. We had a yen intervention yesterday, which I can't wait to talk to Chris Veio about. That was wild. Big
[01:01] move in the yen if you saw that. And um you know, it's just um a crazy day. Speaking of talking to Chris Chris Veio, let's pull up the run of show today. It's going to be quite action-packed as usual. Um
[01:17] >> Yeah, 100%. And join us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. We're >> Yes, we are. Uh we will have plenty of time to take your questions, trade ideas, and whatever you've got to say. Um so yeah, let us know.
[01:31] >> We got Chris Beckio start at 7:35 a.m. Central time with news and stuff to watch. Uh can't wait to, like I said, talk to him about that intervention. talk to him about that intervention. 8:00 a.m. Morning Movers with Gus. 8:15
[01:44] coming on with all of her great insights. 8:30 we'll be doing the opening bell. Sure, there's going to be lots to trade on the open. Um, the last we've talked so much about like Mike and I don't typically trade on the open, but
[01:58] when you got the type of market that you've had recently, yeah, you trade a little bit on the open. 9:20 central. Uh, we got Tim Knight with his charts. We got 8 uh 9:30, excuse me, central time, a market measure from the research
[02:11] team. And then Chris and Liz take over with confirm and send and Gus and Arrol at 10:30 a.m. Central time with risk and reward. And don't forget, trade of the day begins at 11:30 a.m. We've been hitting you guys with all kinds of
[02:26] hitting you guys with all kinds of trades. Myself, Mike, and uh Errol will bring a trade to you that you can execute immediately. So, check that out. >> And they've all been they've all been bangers.
[02:39] >> Yeah, they've been they've been good. Uh, and you know, these markets are chopping around. It's been crazy. But we've got an elephant in the room in this NDX put butterfly that's going to open
[02:53] right at the money on the long put at 282 probably. Uh, it feels like this you think? >> Right. I I feel like that. I do feel like that. Um it's interesting because they've held them they held this level
[03:08] in all mostly overnight and it's only over the last uh 20 minutes or so we've seeing silly. >> Yeah. And uh we've had we were much stronger to your point and now we're kind of fading. Bitcoin's down 1,200.
[03:22] kind of fading. Bitcoin's down 1,200. ETH down 55. E- mini up 13. NASDAQ up ETH down 55. E- mini up 13. NASDAQ up 200. Uh but yeah, crazy move in Amazon. Absolutely insane move in Amazon. Up 30 points. just jumped this channel here
[03:35] and now we're back up above 260 on its way to where wherever it's going to go. But Apple, we kind of had this feeling that we might see a slide in Apple after this big runup. Uh and this was one of those companies where it's like Amazon
[03:51] at least, you know, uh and Amazon had the pre-earnings move to the upside. Uh it was up like 10 points. So it was a sympathy move with Microsoft. So that gave us confidence in placing an upside trade in Amazon. But Apple was the
[04:07] opposite side of the coin. Apple was down yesterday in a day where you had the NASDAQ up almost a,000 points. So that was telling to to me. So I didn't that was telling to to me. So I didn't place any trade in Apple. Um but I'm not
[04:21] the downside here. >> Yeah, Apple being down. Um that was actually one of my trade of the days a couple of days ago. uh and and I did a a put diagonal uh just from the standpoint that um you know this thing was up here
[04:35] already been baked in. It had nowhere to go but down on earnings. And it just so did obviously well on earnings, they know how to make money, apparently the revenue from services more than anything. And so um long story short, I
[04:51] innovating, Mike. Like honestly, I mean we've been saying this for a while with them. There's no real new product. It's the same old stuff. So, I think that's that's kind of the the the thing that's happening there. And then with Amazon,
[05:03] [clears throat] um I tell you, Amazon is so interesting. It's the first company that I can think of in this earning cycle that had a really negative cash flow, bad c negative cash flow, and it's up because everybody is not worried
[05:15] like maybe whatever they're spending on AI is going to improve AWS, which of course made gang of money. So, that's the divergence right there. Um, and um,
[05:27] calendars. I got some calendars off in here yesterday. So, we'll see where this how this plays out. >> Uh, I did a call crab trade. So, I had tripping. >> Nice. Yeah, the 240, 255, 270. That was
[05:43] uh the trade that I had. So, we'll be we'll be all right. I mean, it's five right where the sweet spot is with zero days uh on the short. So, I would I would imagine this will be a $300 winner, something like that on the open.
[05:56] But, I'm very intrigued to see what this NDX butterfly opens at because we're up 200 points in the in the NASDAQ futures right now. So, we'll bring that'll bring right now. So, we'll bring that'll bring us to like 283 in the NAS in NDX and
[06:10] we're at 282 in this long option. This [clears throat] long option is going to be worth I don't know, seven grand, eight, I don't I don't even know. I don't know. It closed at 17 grand. So, it's going to be trading for something
[06:24] crazy. And then these two shorts are going to be further out of the money. So, it it's really going to depend on how much value is coming out of this zero day. Two options that are going to be 400 points out of the money. Uh, and
[06:38] profitability because the long option is going to be the asset in this trade when we open up at like 283. >> I got to ask you more about that Amazon bring Chris Veio in here because we we're already jacked up for this day.
[06:52] [laughter] >> I am I'm jacked up for the day. >> How we've been talking this morning. How >> How we've been talking this morning. How could you forget about me? [laughter]
[07:05] >> I didn't forget about you. I just wanted Mike was Mike, you know, he got going. We still We got We got We're so excited about this this butterfly, dude. Like it's it's exciting. It's exciting. could be one of our biggest trades ever.
[07:19] >> Um I'm crossing my fingers the market gets pinned here. for. >> A little lower. A little lower, but >> Yeah, that's what I meant. >> It feels like a day where we'll slide
[07:32] into the red. I think that I think it feels like one of those days. feels like one of those days. >> Um cuz we're not We had a We had a mixed bag with Amazon Apple. I think if we had Apple up 30 points and Amazon Amazon up
[07:45] 30 points, we would see a different open obviously, but I think the divergence that's continuing in that uh that space is creating some volatility and we're sliding. We've already slid down like 20 30 points in the E- Mini. So,
[08:01] >> Chris, I got we got so many things to talk to you about, man. But what are you looking at this morning? >> Um, you know, Amazon is just like Microsoft. that gave another clean read for the market on how hyperscalers can
[08:14] monetize demand. Um AWS grew 37%. So up a little bit, uh the market's clearly happy with how they're proving you can make money on spending on all this stuff. So that's that's the really good
[08:27] news here. Um you know, you mentioned this potential for a red close here today. We do have the Iran war still going on right now. Oil is up around 2% that we can or should forget about. So having another Friday where we d-risk
[08:41] and traders lighten their book uh going into the weekend cognizant of the and respecting the possibility of a gap come Sunday night I don't think would be um obscene given the lay of the land here. But I mean Apple's Apple's report yeah I
[08:55] They're saying that their input costs are just going up. So do they have the pricing power uh to pass on those costs to their consumers? Probably. It's Apple after all. Uh so we'll we'll see how this all shakes out. It's interesting
[09:09] you say a red close on Friday. We I just looked we had a red close except for the 10th. We had a red close every day this month. On I mean every Friday this month I felt like every day this month. >> Yeah, I know, right? [laughter]
[09:23] >> Yeah, man. They they ain't doing nothing new, man. They ain't doing nothing new. right? You know, not that seasonality was any sort of good guide for the month of July, of course, but what happens when you have uh a red June and a red
[09:37] July back toback? That's actually pretty rare. Um, assuming we don't rally a whole ton here today. I don't see like a 6% gain coming across the board, Mike. Uh, you know, it's probably going to be a red red June in July overall. So, how
[09:50] many times has it happened before? Going back to 1950, it's happened 12 other times. Uh, the average return for the S&P 500 for the rest of the year is minus 2.5%. With uh, eight of those 12 times
[10:04] finishing the year in the red. So, not exactly a good omen, but seasonality hasn't exactly been the thing to lean on. >> Pick your fighter. >> Yeah, I think uh I think we'll see. I I
[10:18] would be surprised if we ripped higher, like significantly higher here. I think it'll be kind of an inside day, but uh for our sake, down day would be just magnificent. Be crazy. Um but yeah, crude oil up a
[10:34] Be crazy. Um but yeah, crude oil up a $1.50 here, almost 2% like you said. And as always, just looking at the uh curve still see we got about a four point backwardation here between the current
[10:47] contract in the next month and then another three points there. So that's that's held pretty steady for the last week or so. Uh about four or five points gone away. It hasn't really increased at all, which just speaks to the staying
[11:00] [snorts] >> Yeah, it it it does. I mean, I think if now, it's clearly telling you that we're worried about what's coming up in the short term. But I'm I'm looking out like the VIX 3mon spread, for example, VIX 3M
[11:13] minus the VIX. That's not exactly screaming any sort of concern. It's a 2.28 spread right now. >> That that's fairly, you know, good. >> Yeah. I for lack of a better phrase that seems normal from the way that I've been
[11:28] following this for a number of years. >> Yeah, this uh the VIX volatility curve here being back to like a point contango between the the Q and the U. Yesterday we were kind of flat or the day before we were kind of flat. So obviously a
[11:43] massive rip in the equity market will help flat will help uh steepen that contango curve. But uh yeah, I think we're still seeing the signs of nothing we're still seeing the signs of nothing to see here and a compressed VIX at 17
[11:57] >> I mean, Jamal, if we're looking at the compressed VIX, there is still part of me that says this time of the year is when the volatility tends to get a window in February and March where seemingly something always bad happens.
[12:10] Uh Signature Bank goes down into a March. Bear Sterns goes down in a March. pick a the the t the taper tantrum from the Fed starts with a Bernani question like March is always a bad time of the year, but also then you have August,
[12:23] September um for volatility here for the fourthcoming month. Uh what do we have here? Show me the 10-year return. And the 10-year return for volatility is for I don't want to quote it in percentage terms, but V has been up by 3.7%. The
[12:38] VIX has been up by 3.7% in August. It's been up 7.76% in September. It's been up been up 7.76% in September. It's been up 13.74% in October over the past decade. 13.74% in October over the past decade. So my bias is and we saw a dip below 15
[12:52] earlier this month. I think we had a low of a 1496 in the VIX right in that first trading week of July. If we see some pullbacks involve into that 15 handle again, just given where we are in the calendar, it would seem prudent that uh
[13:06] upside and go fishing, which is I let's use this opportunity to get some downside protection, maybe trim some winners. Uh, and just again being cognizant of the fact that this is the
[13:19] crazy. And there's a human reason for that, gentlemen. All the important actually know how to trade and make decisions, they go on vacation in a few weeks time. And I mean this so sincerely. Junior traders run the desk
[13:33] in the second two week of a August across New York, London, most of the financial world. And the average trading age on a desk right now at a bank is age on a desk right now at a bank is about 6 and 1/2 years. Which means we're
[13:45] dotcom bubble. People who didn't trade through the global financial crisis, they're about to forget what it was like trading through co. So let's just uh be their hands on the steering wheels for the next few weeks.
[13:59] Hamptons are calling. >> What is the thing? >> You notice how you notice how he didn't say Chicago, right, Mike? You notice gonna let it go this time, you know. But that's cool.
[14:11] pull these up. Uh let's start with big tech. The big tech earning scorecard. Um >> cuz this is a good one and it's been it's kind of fascinating, right? I mean, I I'm not sure the last time we saw this much divergence in a couple of these
[14:26] these mag seven names, but um there it is, right? Um the M's and the A's that self-explanatory. Let's go to that big tech big uh big tech capex though.
[14:38] tech big uh big tech capex though. That's that's the one. Amazon up 200%. Microsoft up 190%. Alphabet up 180%. Meta up 135%. >> I mean, >> and what's but what's fascinating here
[14:52] is that the the companies that had the biggest capex guidance expansions are the ones that whose stocks did the best. And that just was absolutely that was they have cloud >> because they have cloud and they can
[15:06] >> right? It's not all week long my expression has been proof of work or proof of more work and you have proof of work from Amazon and Microsoft. They are able to monetize their spending. It's a game changer. That plus LEO and
[15:19] the semiconductor volume the other day. I mean, I can't I can't get this out of my head. Like the market was clearly hunting for Leo Ashen Brother, right? to that. We come to that. Let's let's let's go to Chevron first. Let's look at
[15:31] that last. >> Guess we go to Chevron. >> I know. >> Hey, I don't want to waste these are even know if it's moving that much on
[15:44] earnings. And the one thing I did notice both of these I'll go to Exxon next. Uh like they quoted earnings with or without the straight, right? Is that forward? It would seem so. You brought up the Iran war this morning and nobody
[15:57] brought it up. I'm going to bring up Chevron and Exon. [laughter] energy space that are doing well right now. TP and I were covering this
[16:09] yesterday or was it the day before? But it's there's oil services companies and then there are the refiners right now, right? So, you go to like Haliber and XOMCX. It's a different bucket than a name like PSX, Philip 66. um if you
[16:22] wanted to put that up on the screen or something something like Marathon Petroleum MPC or like a Valero VLOO those are all refiners. So the the ETFs aren't great ways to play this. The ETF for the refiner you think of XLE O XOP
[16:37] right but the refiners are in an ETF called crack K me C R A K because the just see how much stronger this chart has been than like the Exxon Mobiles of really the important point about the supply issues in the short term. We are
[16:53] running down our inventories not just of oil itself but of refined products jet fuel distillates gasoline diesel etc. And so yeah if the marginal ship is form moves maybe crude prices can be down but the inputs are obviously waning
[17:10] stronger pocket of the energy market right now. The refiners are the place to play. they have the the stronger balance sheets. Um, and you know, like had to announce they can't do like 10% of their uh extraction right now because
[17:24] conflict. So, if you can't get the oil out of the ground, who cares if it's trading at $100 a barrel? I was offered a job at Schlumber. I didn't want to go. It's a story for another time. Yeah, back when I used to
[17:37] be an engineer. Uh, big tech capex arms race. Let's pull that one up. That's pretty good chart. again kind of gets to what we were talking about earlier with the spending here. >> Free cash flow.
[17:50] >> Mhm. >> Yeah, man. There it is. All in one bag. >> Um >> that's not good. how do you get paid out through retained earnings? How do you make your money?
[18:05] the day. So, how long what's the equity worth for a Meta if it's not going to going to have a legitimate AI offering? Google on the other hand or I'll go to negative, but they're clearly showing how they can monetize it. So, a
[18:19] temporary bump in the road. The narrative here is really strong because tell the full story. You couldn't pick the winners and losers off this chart. If you said, "Oh, who had the uh biggest capex and lowest free cash flow?" They
[18:32] >> Yeah. Right. >> That was a wrong assumption. That's not >> And that was my own assumption like my I was in I'm in a Super Bowl on Amazon so >> [laughter] >> uh
[18:45] >> but like this goes to show like don't always update your assumptions and prior your beliefs are wrong. Change them because the goal here is to make money not uh soothe our little egos. >> Well, we know we all know somebody who
[18:58] numbers ahead of time and you still wouldn't be wrong. You would still be wrong. Uh all right. Let's get to the uh the star here. Let's get to the situational awareness fund graphic cuz obviously this is the thing that a lot
[19:10] last couple of days. >> Salt, take it away, Chris. I suppose I this rally that came yesterday. You think that it's a semiconductor rally. It's not a semiconductor rally. It's a Leo Ashton Brener rally. Everything that
[19:26] was in his 13F was up 15 to 25% during yesterday's session. Um it's not unusual for the market to hunt for struggling names. if you will. This is what happened to long-term capital management in the late '9s when they were going
[19:40] obliterated and as soon as they got knocked out of the market, things Bakeman Freed went down in November of what 22 that was. Uh I remember that cuz I was listening to Bloomberg radio while I was driving by my local fire station
[19:54] like what the what are you talking about? What are you talking about FTX down? And sure enough, what day did Bitcoin bottom? The day that FTX went down. So earlier this week when we had this gigantic volume candle, we had a
[20:07] with Helen Misler here on the network in which she discussed what conditions are you looking for for a panic low or a bottom in names and she specifically highlighted the wash out that we saw in the volumes from a name in SMH. She
[20:20] described it as like fence sitting if you will during trading. There are some fence. There are some people who are bears, but there's a whole lot of market And when you see that kind of volume,
[20:32] fence to one side. There's no longer so you get this news flow this week. Uh Citadel picks up their book. Um we have now a Fed meeting in the back pocket. We have these nice earnings and what
[20:46] happens? Semiconductors are bottoming, so to speak. Uh I don't want to discount that. This is not something unusual. The market likes to do these things. I'm not highs, but as someone who has been long semiconductors and semicaps and various
[21:00] back to break even on a whole bunch of them, uh it does give me pause when you see a whale and an overleveraged whale taken out of the market and also all these Koreans who are overleveraged too. So the leverage clearly has been cleared
[21:13] out now. But pick a name out of this hat, guys. Iron that was up around 20% the day. I was short this put. I was like, wait, what? [laughter] >> Right. And it wasn't just crypto like Coinbase was only up 2 and a/4%. You go
[21:26] over to Hive or Riot which were Leo Holdings, they were up 15 to 20. So playing out here. And as someone who's read through all these Market Wizard this feels like a story that we've heard before. But as I close out my own little
[21:42] spiel here, there is a takeaway which I saw on Twitter yesterday. I was thinking in my head and it was just like, "Oh, that's exactly I couldn't put it into And I think his Twitter handle was like deathmaker one. So, I don't know who you
[21:55] are, [laughter] but his point was when you read through all of these books about famous traders, all of their stories about the guys who make money, they're all different. You have your Dennis Gartman's world, you
[22:08] have your your turtle traders, you have the George Soroses out there, the Stan Ducken Millers, um the Scott Bessants of the world. But when you read the stories >> Yes. >> It's too much leverage.
[22:21] >> And they're smart. They're they're the validictorian or they went to Harvard or whatever it may be. Harvard, but you know what I'm saying. Yeah. Bill Hong all those years ago. Um Matio back in the do bubble. Talk about a cowboy,
[22:34] right? He's had so many blowups and recoveries along the way. But it's all these downfalls are not because of anyone being too John Cororsine with MF Global. too levered in European bonds. Was he right? Yes. He had too much
[22:47] leverage on. So his position goes crap. And then a week after MF Global goes down, what happens? The bond yields go down. He was right. Too much leverage. So that is the story to tell here. Don't lever up too much. Stay within your own
[23:00] portfolio and capital constraints as a retail trader. That's the end of the >> I was working at Peak Six when that whole John Cororsine thing happened and they ended up having to buy the clearing firm, which is now Apex. Um, anyway,
[23:14] we look at the week, this dude was long a lot of hardware and short software, and we saw that blowout so big this week. So big. And so it's not really a surprise what happened. >> Yeah, it's uh it's been a crazy crazy
[23:30] scenario, but yeah, there's there's a book that I read recently. I it's something something money, theory of money, something like that. But uh it's the same story. It just goes over the top 15 hedge fund managers that blew out
[23:42] It's just too much leverage. You think sudden you see a 10% move in a product that you think will never move that big and that's not even a big move and then you get blown out. So that's why we harp
[23:54] >> Trading small enough to be able to withstand any variance puts you in a real good position especially if you're selling premium around like me or MNQ other trade for that matter. You have to be able to withstand the variance that
[24:09] withstand the variance that you can't see, it is a recipe for disaster for >> And you know, I I do I do want to say like this guy takes 225$224 million and turns it into 24 billion uh over the course of a few years. Um he
[24:24] generates north of a 2,000% return for his investors. Even if everyone goes you know, if you put $100 million in the back of the envelope math was that you would have walked away with $230 million for a 2-year investment as an LP, that's
[24:39] not bad, right? Um so he clearly was he clearly was right, you know. Uh but what right or do you want to make money? And so doubt. I didn't do this. You guys didn't do this. We're not going to I'm not here
[24:53] a good trader or investor. That's certainly not the case. But this is the lesson that we hear >> every time one of these stories happens. It's there's just too much leverage. You're on tilt.
[25:07] >> Yep. The psychology of money. That's the book by Morg. >> Great book. >> I mean, the Kyro the Kylo Ren gif, >> More. >> More.
[25:19] >> Yeah. >> Quite literally. Chris, great show. Love soon. >> Yeah, man. >> Yeah, man. >> E- minis up 13. NASDAQ up 250. Uh we
[25:32] need this thing to just absolutely tank. Just just 200 points. >> Nothing crazy. >> Nothing crazy. Uh but yeah, I I I got to I got to know what this is going to open at. We got what 34 minutes left until
[25:45] the market uh equity opens. But join us in the YouTube chat. I see some people asking questions. Uh I don't have a Super Bowl on. Do you have a Super Bowl >> I do not. No, I have it for Monday. Um I don't have one on for today.
[25:57] >> the only thing I have in this cycle is our butterfly. Um >> 7450, 7,400, 7350. And then um I did do a um just for
[26:09] 7350. And then um I did do a um just for the fun, I did a $5 wide iron condor uh the fun, I did a $5 wide iron condor uh yesterday. Uh 7375 and 7480 are my short >> That's all I have for this today's cycle. [sighs and snorts]
[26:23] Yeah, I have uh I have [clears throat] that butterfly on that expires today in SPX, but I maybe you're thinking of this Super Bowl. I had a Super Bowl on uh into the 100 point selloff before the Fed announcement and uh that was a a
[26:39] two-day expiration uh that's expiring today when I put it on. So, I closed that the same day. I closed that 2 hours later for 100 bucks profit. Uh so if you're thinking about that, I've already closed it, but uh it's it's in a better
[26:52] >> Yeah, these markets have been fast and furious. We've been open and closed a say too before we go to break, we can compare and contrast our Amazon cuz uh our longs are on the same strike, but I I went with a August 7th for my other
[27:07] near-term. So that'll be fun to you you'll probably I'm sure make more money >> Same strikes. Yep. >> Nice. >> It'll be a good comparison. Yeah. Yeah. I'm I'm interested to see it because you
[27:20] you probably paid less obviously >> uh because you collected more with those 7-day shorts, but we'll see. We'll see what the net P&L is. But yeah, it'll be a good compare and contrast for sure. Um but yeah, uh I see some people asking
[27:34] about Micron and uh yeah, Micron's up a little bit, 25 points in pre-market trading here, but nothing too crazy. Uh we're going to take a quick break here. We'll throw on a little S&P uh global trading hours
[27:48] trade here in the pre-market session. I think I might just do a little iron think I might just do a little iron condor. Feels right. Feels right. But haven't already. Throw in those trade ideas and we'll get to them throughout
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[30:39] mini sliding a little bit. NASDAQ still holding steady at up uh 200 points here, almost 1%. Uh, we were just talking about maybe a little S&P 500x zero day iron condor here. I feel like if there's going to be a market that moves, maybe
[30:52] it's the NASDAQ. I feel like the E- Minis might hold strong here. Uh, but what say you, Jamal? >> I mean, I think it's a good idea. We're uh, let's see. We're Yeah, we're around 7500.
[31:04] I mean, I think it's a good idea. Again, I already did it. I did it yesterday towards the end of the day. And um just to get my strikes again, I did the um I did the 7480 7485 7375 7370.
[31:23] I like it. You know what we could do? >> 210. Beautiful. You know what we could do is uh we could do a little synergy trade here because we have we have the zero day S&P butterfly on
[31:40] that's going to be uh the 7450 7400 7350. So, what we could do is wrap the risk around that in the 3-day instead of the zero day. Uh, and just go down to
[31:52] like the 7375 7365. >> I like that idea. I see where you're going with it. >> And just like create this window. Maybe
[32:05] it's maybe it's a Super Bowl. Maybe we just play for a continuation to the upside over the weekend. I don't know. But yeah, you could do something like this. It's just like a three-day iron condor here where the downside risk
[32:17] is completely offset by the zero day butterfly if we do retreat towards this butterfly if we do retreat towards this level. Um yeah, feels like it could could be could be something there. But if we did that, let me see what this
[32:33] would look like if we did like a super wide or like an out of the money Super Bowl here. Yeah, maybe it's the iron condor. Let's do the iron condor. Let's do that. 7510
[32:47] 7520. Let's break. Let's make this really small. I don't want to I don't want to go nuts here. Okay, here you go. Two bucks. 7510 to the upside. 7370 to the downside. No
[33:00] move down there, that butterfly is going to explode. Um maybe I'll take a little more risk on that downside. Where are we projected to where's at the money? >> At the money is like 7450, 7460
[33:15] somewhere in there. Gotcha. >> Mhm. Yeah, that's what I'm going to do. I'm going to take more risk on the downside here because if we do slide like that butterfly is going to be $3,000 winner, something like that. So,
[33:28] there's no risk to the downside here if you think of those in combination. But, I'll I'll write that up in the little uh comment on the follow page. But, let's do that. Let's do uh let's see if we can get filled at like 260.
[33:42] get filled at like 260. We got to do global hours. Mhm. And see if we get filled here. So the nice thing about this trade is even though I'm collecting less than that fivepoint wide width here, um I still have upside
[33:59] risk. So it's not like a Jade Lizard setup, but I do get a lot more premium we do rally, it'll still be a net winner, even though I'll take heat on the upside because uh that put spread is really where a lot of the the bulk of
[34:13] really where a lot of the the bulk of the value comes from. There you go. 245. Nice >> in the 3-day. So, again, 3-day going to the 3-day because we have that butterfly that is wrapped around 20 uh 7,400 to
[34:30] the downside with zero days to go. So all of the risk on the downside is offset by this butterfly cuz if we slide I will close it. And I have no idea what what like this is going to be the most insane P&L open P&L day. Like this is
[34:45] going to be up five grand down one. It's just going to be like ground. It's going to be absolutely nuts. >> It's going to be fun. Um but yeah, let's look at the YouTube chat. See if we've got any trade ideas here.
[34:58] >> Someone did ask if when we closing the uh SPX put butterfly. I mean, I'm I'm uh SPX put butterfly. I mean, I'm I'm just holding. I mean, if uh [sighs]
[35:13] if somehow it were like, you know, worth $35 and it's like 12:30, 1245, which I really highly doubt. I'd maybe close it. Maybe. >> Yeah. I I feel like we're at a loss for words because this has never happened
[35:27] before. So, we're we're in a we're in a new territory here. Holding is a a butterfly to zero days and being right at the short strikes like literally right there. Uh but yeah, it doesn't change anything. Your max profit is your
[35:40] max profit. If you get close to your max profit, you're holding a lot of risk because you you can lose all that value on a 50point move in either direction and have a max loser. So, this is going to be the most sensitive trade I've ever
[35:54] traded. uh this SPX butterfly and the NDX butterfly. But to Jamal's point, uh and really the reality is that your max profit is when the product moves towards your short strikes regardless of time uh or like through this window of
[36:10] opportunity here. If we look at the curve analysis and just isolate this S&P uh and >> I mean the reason I will say and I've I just did it not too long ago in Micron. done. I've had one S&P before.
[36:26] It's very rare, but I will say like the times where I've done it, it's kind of just been some patience and the market dynamics were working. And I will say the market dynamics have kind of worked in our favor in this case because again,
[36:39] towards those strikes. You guys watched the show, you saw that Liz at the time was saying, um, you know, are you guys nervous that it's right there? and we were like, "No, actually we we weren't." Because again, I knew the move was we
[36:52] so happens that we've been staying right? And then now we're here on a Friday where typically on Fridays you either have a big move or you just kind of chill. And so far we've moved and
[37:06] above it, but we're sliding back lower after a big move yesterday. So [snorts] craziest thing. It does seem like there's sort of a magnet for 28,000 in there's sort of a magnet for 28,000 in NDX and 7,400 in in SPX. So, I think
[37:21] to this. We're we're attempting to see how how much we can extract out of this how how much we can extract out of this 100%. And uh yeah, P&L Theo for today is $1,200 net profit. Uh which is like $3 $400 more than yesterday. If we look at
[37:37] this, uh, if we open right here, which looks like we will, just up 13 points in the E- minis, but like we said, if you get that slide down, you see your your Theo max profit is right where your short strikes are, which is the max
[37:50] profit at expiration. But yeah, if I can take 2K out of this thing, uh, and then, you know, in NDX, it's going to be the same story. NDX is going to be uh if we look at the analysis and yeah, we're evaluating today. Here's your Theo.
[38:08] We're going to open up. Let's zoom out a little bit. We're going to open up at like 28 4 or 285, something like this. Um so, we need a slide down, but if we get that slide down, it's going to be again
[38:25] scenario if you were following along with this trade is to just bring the or put in a GTC order. So like put in a GTC for five grand in NDX and 2K in SPX and
[38:38] if it slides down even if it's just for a second you can get filled there. So >> we'll see. >> We'll see. >> Um but yeah, lots to discuss that that Amazon trade will be interesting to
[38:52] compare and contrast for sure. Um, but intervention graphic real quick, guys, unpack that a little bit. Big move yesterday around 12 around 12:35 central
[39:07] hour time. Uh, it does seem like Japan reportedly brought y bought yen and sold dollars yesterday. And you could see the huge move to the downside and that Japanese uh that that uh US dollar Japanese yen pair or if you just look at
[39:20] 6J, you can see the big move to the upside. Um, you know, it's it's interesting when things like this happen, I mean, [sighs] as much as I'm I'm I am bullish and most of my positions dictate so, but when you see
[39:33] um you hear the Iran war, when you hear of a hedge fund firm blowing out, um earnings, when you see what just happened with the Fed and you know that we didn't hike rates, but we're probably going to have to hike at some point and
[39:46] going to have to hike at some point and you see the yen intervening, um that's that's just at least a five brick wall that I just laid out, right? So, like Chris was earlier talking about how seasonality and you get to August and
[39:58] beginning of a wall of worry and the more you start to hear of all of these in the media, that's when you could possibly have, you know, VIX at at 24 things I think just to keep an eye on.
[40:12] They're all kind of happening for a certain reason. It's just something to be aware of. I hate to be that guy. I hate to be that dude, but I mean that was a huge move yesterday in the end. >> Yeah, it's absolutely nuts. Uh, and
[40:26] these are the things again, it's all about leverage. Like if you had if you were short if you had massive shorts on, you're just printing cash into the move like this, like you this is a blowout move. So you just got to always
[40:39] keep size small and always always plan for the thing you can't see that could really shake up the trade >> for sure. Um, but yeah, lots lots going on here. Lots going on here and uh we will be
[40:53] ideas, questions in the YouTube chat, we can get to them. But let's take a quick break. We'll bring in Liz on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[43:23] show. You got E- Minis and NASDAQ chopping around as they were before, but we got Liz Dear King on the line. Let's bring her in and talk overnight movers. Liz, how you doing this morning? >> Uh, I am on the edge of my seat. I am
[43:36] utterly disappointed in your lack of enthusiasm today as you might have the enthusiasm today as you might have the world's greatest trade on. [laughter] are uh knocking on the door. I think
[43:48] it's one of those things where like it's so it's so impactful that you're just in shock and you don't know how to process it. Uh I think that's where we're at. going to look at them both on the open. Now, you have two, right? You have an
[44:00] >> kind of in similar. >> That's the crazy part. Like, that's fact that we got one. We got two that are near. I mean, that's crazy. >> So, are you looking at them differently or going to close one and keep one?
[44:14] >> Uh, that's a great question. You both didn't You both sat quietly for a >> uh I think if there's one that we would close, it'd probably be the SPX one >> Yeah. >> Um and that allows us if we close the
[44:29] >> Um and that allows us if we close the S&P one for a couple thousand that just allows us to free roll the NASDAQ one. >> Lotto ticket, Liz. Lotto ticket then for sure. >> Cuz the the NASDAQ one uh the NASDAQ one
[44:42] is going to be significantly further out of the money. uh compared to the E- Mini right there. >> But that's a it's a narrower one too, >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It's going to be a hard one to
[44:55] >> No, the NDX is definitely narrower. NDX is like 400 points round trip either way. I mean, that's that's a that's a drop. I mean, for 300 points right now, >> Yeah. I guess you got to put it into perspective, right, with the with the
[45:08] >> Super fun. Now, I'm not going to lie to you. SPX the zero days, especially at some go and I'm always watching and it could be, you know, a two $300 move in I wait till the bell rings. Like everybody knows you got to wait till the
[45:23] pins. You two are going to be glued to your screen if you let it go. [laughter] >> Or you just walk away and let God, as they say. [laughter]
[45:35] >> I mean, as I told like when I had the the Micron one a couple of weeks ago, I like, let me just walk away. I learned how :30. I want you guys to pour a drink not the It's not like your original colleague. I need you both pour I need
[45:50] you both to pour a drink and just walk away [laughter] >> and then just get that's you could just layer on some alerts, Jamal. You could attention, I feel when it's there because you could have a situation where
[46:03] it gets close and you see that's when you actually pay the most attention. Not like on the open or 2 hours in. You really pay probably the most if you're going to hold it. You definitely pay the most attention with like under an hour
[46:16] slides there and then it really grows in value and you have a chance to take it sudden it might move away and you're like gh. Trust me, I've done that too. >> It can go poof on a dime. >> Yes, I've had that happen.
[46:32] about the last hour of the day how that can go sometimes. I've had that happen where let's just say the SPX and SPX slides down to 7,400 and it's 50 point Y right so all of a sudden this thing is
[46:44] worth like 2600 right which is like you know a good value right and it's it's shoot I could probably take this up wow it's sliding and the market is quiet this is great let's see if we can get 3,000 right trying to be greedy and all
[46:57] of a sudden something happens and it moves like 30 no and it'll move like you know 10 points away and now it's only 1,700 and you know then you're like well I just had 2,600 on the table. Maybe I should just wait till they get back to
[47:09] and then it all of a sudden it's 1,000 and then it's 900 and then it's 700 and you know what? And so that's the psychology. I'm just telling you guys right now. That's how it goes. >> Well, I'm I think it's worse. I think
[47:21] losing money. I know that sounds terrible. I know that sounds terrible, but the psychology for me is worse. Like you had said, Jamal, you could have closed it for four grand and now you're like, great, I made $700. Like that's
[47:33] worse for me than losing $3,000. [laughter] So, I think that's why the best case scenario is if uh for some reason we get a chance to close the S&P for two grand, then I really don't care what happens with the NDX. Honestly, um
[47:46] >> you keep telling yourself that. [laughter] >> That's the thing. You got to tell yourself these things ahead of time.
[47:58] get in a trade, have a plan ahead of time. That was always the plan. The plan was actually always to light $700 on fire. As bad as that sounds, that was >> So, there you go. >> Okay. So, now what you don't want, and
[48:11] newer viewers out there, what Mike and Jamal do not want right now is a rip all you're not Look, that's all you're not playing for is a rip your face off >> In both of these. Yes. But trust me, if we have a rip your face off rally, I win
[48:24] >> Correct. And that's lighting your $700 on fire. This was your what was it? What did he call it? your your buddy on the the donate, not donation, sacrifice, >> Yeah, sacrifice. >> Um, but we did do a global trading hours
[48:40] SPX trade here and uh took some more risk on the downside. So, I sold a 10-point wide put spread and I sold a five point wide call spread above it. So, kind of like a asymmetric iron condor here, playing for a chop, but I
[48:53] know that I've got the butterfly to the downside. So, I have no risk in this put butterfly up. >> So, this is a jade lizardesque type covering your width to the call spread. I totally understand that. But but it it
[49:08] up, you can take this off for a profit. structured. >> Thank you. But yeah, that's that's what we got for this morning in S&P. >> Okay. And what do you guys have? What do
[49:21] we have rolling into the open as far as earnings go? Because I did Amazon. I did that I did. Um I didn't The French players I kind of left. I figured that >> What's Coin doing? >> Coin was down a little bit.
[49:34] >> Yeah. >> Yeah. We had Jamal and I had a similar call crab trade. So I did the 240, 255, 270, pushed the long option out to September, and then I did the short components in the 1day. And he did the
[49:49] short components in the 7-day. So his basis was lower, but he'll have basis was lower, but he'll have exttrinsic value in the 255s. My basis it crushed. So we're going to compare contrast the profit there. I'm I'm
[50:02] thinking it's going to be a $300 winner. Something like that. go through your crab? >> It did, but I think it'll still be I [clears throat] >> But it depends on It depends on what you
[50:15] you cover the width? >> Oh, yeah. It was a It was a $9 debit on a 15 point wide. So, >> we'll we'll have even right here, this is the Theo P&L based on uh the current the current valuations with no change in
[50:29] IV, but this is like >> $2 $300 winner. I think we'll be able to >> Good. >> Yeah. So, we'll see. >> Yeah. I in Amazon and Apple, I'm actually going to net them out because
[50:41] it's this is how my mind works. I wound up buying an at the money in the two-day the at the money call spread as wide as I could make it and sold the 52-day put should be okay, but Apple will be a loser because I sold that put. I think I
[50:55] have the one. Let me see what I have on Apple. Um, with that, but I did Amazon. you'll make you make a 100% profit because it is Friday. So, we all know can't take full profit on it until expiration. And so I kind of like that
[51:10] setup on where when earnings are on Thursday night going into Friday. What was the put you sold in Apple? >> So let me go to Apple first. Apple I sold That's one's going to hurt the most. That I have the uh 315 put in
[51:25] >> Okay. >> Yeah. And I and I used it to buy, you know, 15 point wide call spread. So I don't have a lot there. But that's fine. like rolling until I'm right. And then in Amazon, I sold the uh 225 put to buy
[51:41] the 230 250. So that should be a good that should be a $2,000 pop for me because it's $20 wide. >> Yeah. So I might I might close both of I do on the other and then readjust and see what I want to do in Apple and
[51:53] Amazon. I have a tendency to not out my earnings trades if I do something like trades for the day. Um I'm going to close all three or keep all three and >> Yeah, I like it. >> Yeah. Uh, and yeah, [clears throat] to
[52:06] your point, Apple's going to hurt the most, but your worst case scenario is you have Apple shares at a basis significantly lower than where it was yesterday. And you can just roll the put. You can convert it to a strangle if
[52:18] different stuff. >> Yes, I'm I'm planning on going out and up and making it a strangle or or if my Amazon covers it, I'm literally going to >> Nice. >> Yeah.
[52:32] Um, for me, my shopping list. I'm just looking at UUP. I forgot to It was a looking at UUP. I forgot to It was a huge move yesterday. Um, in the dollar. >> Jamal, this is old school. But every time Jenny and I would trade UUP, we'd
[52:45] be like, "We're trading UUP." And she'd say, "Yeah, you know me." Cuz what's the say, "Yeah, you know me." Cuz what's the [laughter] >> I like it. >> Yeah. Um, yeah. Move. That's that's a
[52:59] there, especially after the yen intervention. Um, actually that was part of it, but the day before um was just a different move. Anyway, what's on I I got maybe one thing on my shopping list. Um, actually a couple of things. I I got
[53:13] is down on earnings. Um, markets are widening there, but I don't know if I can get a short put spread on there. Maybe I'm I'm interested. We'll see how how it looks. I'm I'm not really going to force it. The other thing is banks. I
[53:25] banks. kind of looking at I forgot about it. about it. Um, but I forgot to do something in GS, but >> uh GS and and City look interesting to me. I just want to get some long
[53:37] exposure in there, short puts um or put spread in the case of GS, but uh and then maybe JP Morgan. It's a little bounce there. We'll see though. have to be directional with those. There's not a lot of implied volatility
[53:52] and they're high. So JP Morgan's a $350 stock. It's tricky. It's hard to get in at 350 with the implied volatility isn't that much. What do you how how how would you get into JP Morgan for exposure? >> How uh Sure. I just want to get long it
[54:06] banks. >> So you're not selling premium. You're >> Sure. I'm selling low premium. Sure. Yeah. I'd be I'd sell like probably a um probably a put spread in here maybe. Um
[54:19] to keep an eye on, you know. >> Yeah. Um, would just go just with a diagonal spread. Like there's there's 23% IV in an equity is a a smash spot for a diagonal spread. Uh, and you can even
[54:34] >> You I mean, you could do whatever. You can do a a crab trade. You could do a diagonal, but like this the fact that you can go October, September, do a 20 point wide diagonal for 12 bucks. Like your max your profit here is significant
[54:47] relative to your risk. >> Yeah. So yeah, um, some people in the YouTube chat asking about SpaceX. Are you doing >> We talked about this a little bit yesterday, and that's what I have been
[55:02] in SpaceX. I will say that because I've been lading or layering in puts. So I'm I'm locked and loaded and and I'm just This is the simplest explanation I can give. I'm taking my puts out and up or I'm sorry, out and down with puts. The
[55:16] out and up with calls. So I have taken them I started near-term which is helpful because you can really move them out and as it gets to the at the monies I take them out farther. Now I have no problem going even into Karen the super
[55:30] trader a long time ago used to say when things get in trouble get them the heck out of the way meaning you can take it and move it to the the put to the 77day or you can take it and move it to the 52day. I haven't gone that far yet with
[55:42] it. I think my SpaceX puts are in keep in mind I started with the with the zero days, right? So, I wanted to get $2 a day. So, um I would then I'd move it to bit more time and I would move it to the 10day. And now my SpaceX puts I am in
[55:56] you and tell you exactly where it is. My SpaceX puts I'm now in the 21day. So I still have room to go out and down. My next move is going to be probably at some point today I might move them into the 50 the 52 day or the September
[56:11] >> I like it. >> But you can take it Mike. there's still a lot of premium in there where you can take um I have the I have the 118. So, let's do I'm going to give a real example. I have the SE uh this I have
[56:23] >> Mhm. >> Okay. So, and I can take it out to SE and the August 18 put right now is it's marking for640. So, where can I sell a put for 1640? I can actually take it all the way down to the 115 which is the at
[56:37] >> And and that's just kind of my process with these. I'm not adding any more because I am at position limit. But my next move is just managing this position out and down. >> Yep. Yeah, I like it. You still pick up
[56:50] a $130. So you're not only reducing your intrinsic value risk by 300 points or $300, you're picking up another $135, reducing your cost basis against your new strike. So you're improving your basis dramatically to the downside. Uh,
[57:04] and all you need now is just if you moved it to the 115, if SpaceX goes up to 117, 120, and this goes down to 21 days, like now you can really move it yourself more room >> cuz now you've got just pure exttrinsic
[57:18] exttrinsic value, when you're making these maneuvers, you have so much more flexibility um to just manipulate it more. But it is also 100 100% IV stock, so you can do a lot of different things here. That's why you can get out and
[57:32] >> Yep. >> Can I tell you about Can I tell you a because somebody was asking if she's trading. So, she took me to Cava. Have >> Oh, yeah. Magical place. I've eaten there.
[57:45] she loved it. So, I was I She loved it. She's like, "You got to see this place. was like, "All right, whatever." And then we went. So, I had her do a made $200 on it. [laughter] >> Nice. And she's like, "Do you have any
[57:58] $200?" >> I know. I know. [laughter] >> All 13 toppings >> on that like real dip is when we went it morning I just looked at her account and she's up $210. She's got the 6268 7day
[58:12] 7-day August and um the 21day 62 >> I like it. >> Beautiful. >> Yeah. Cava. When I went first went to Cabava, I was like I need to get
[58:24] things. We're like, you go there and they're like, "How many toppings do you allowed?" And they're like, "You can get them all." And I was like, "What do you like, "You can do every single topping if you want." And I was like, "Okay,
[58:36] bowl. It was perfect. toppings. >> I mean, it's it's easy to overdo it. >> for sure. >> Um, would you allow assignment in
[58:49] SpaceX? call premium is really high. So, not sure if it makes sense to allow SpaceX. >> It's the same thing. It's the same thing, right? So, extrinsic value on the call or the put is the same thing. And
[59:02] in the money, an in the money put is essentially the exact same thing as call. So, but it actually uses less typically don't take assignment. I'm not opposed to it, but I typically don't
[59:15] synthetic version of the fact that an in even a deep in the money put is the same thing as a synthetic covered call. >> Yep. >> Yeah. You'll usually get uh some some decent relief if you have the short put
[59:27] that's in the money versus the shares. Uh so yeah, and especially with SpaceX >> Okay, go right to it. >> We're off. We're off and running. >> Come on. Open the butterflies. >> Off [laughter] and running. Oh, look at
[59:40] >> Off [laughter] and running. Oh, look at that. We just jumped up. >> That's [clears throat] okay. >> We've noticed this. I will say a lot of times we gap up in the morning, right? >> And then slide at at about 10:30.
[59:56] >> Yep. >> Mhm. Yeah. You mean >> Mhm. Yeah. You mean >> NASDAQ up 360 catching a bid here. Uh >> NASDAQ up 360 catching a bid here. Uh yeah, the butterfly is chopping around.
[01:00:08] yeah, the butterfly is chopping around. NDX butterfly chopping around, losing some value from yesterday. Again, this is going to be just an absolutely >> holy cow, >> if we go from where we are now to flat,
[01:00:21] this is going to go from a $600 winner to a $7,000 winner. Like, it's it's P&L. So, >> are you above your you're above your uh long your top long strike, right? Nothing. Okay, got it.
[01:00:33] Nothing. Okay, got it. >> Yep. 200 points above uh in NDX. So, but again, this option, the nice thing about these trades is like eventually these This option is still going to hold on to some value as it's 200 points higher.
[01:00:47] So, uh yeah, if we get any kind of slide today, it's going to be just pure magic. >> Pure magic. >> Wow. Okay. Amazon ZN and ZB trading same out. >> ZN and ZB are trading the same price. I
[01:01:04] mean, just about >> is okay. Someone call him. [laughter] >> Somebody call him. Yeah, it's 108. Uh, almost exactly the same. Kind of wild. What's your Amazon trade, Jamal? >> Uh, hold on. I'm trying to get out of
[01:01:19] this Marbell trade. I was short of wasn't sure of putting long a call spread and my call was in the money. I got to get out of this thing. is my pro. >> Bam. Nice play. Nice play. Marll has my
[01:01:33] >> Bam. Nice play. Nice play. Marll has my number, but today is a good day. >> Sorry. Um, what else? Micron. Somebody's asking about these Micron >> uh butterflies that we have on. I mean
[01:01:47] that I have on. >> Uh, these This is for Oh, that's for next week. Um, God, do I need to close this thing? >> market is ripping. >> It really is.
[01:02:01] we didn't want, but that doesn't mean it's going to stay ripped. >> No, we do want this. Actually, I got um two Super Bowls for Monday >> um that are working phenomenal right now.
[01:02:14] >> So, I and I know the Greeks get kind of a little bit jumbled up on the zero DTE, to show the probability of it hitting your or get having that be there, look at the deltas of your butterfly options. So if you double the delta, so this if
[01:02:29] you double the delta, that's the probability of touch. And I know it's not 100% accurate, but it's during the cycle that you're in. So if you take a what is the delta of this? >> Seven.
[01:02:41] >> Seven. So you've got a 14% chance of it coming back down there at some point >> Oh, no, no, no. Your deltas are higher. >> Well, yeah, the long option is Yeah. level, which would be >> Yes. And if you touch that level and it
[01:02:55] becomes the at the money that that could be worth a a ridiculous amount of money. be worth a a ridiculous amount of money. >> Yeah. So, we'll see. Microsoft up meta up. Um let me see this Amazon. What's going on with my Amazon trade here? Um
[01:03:07] >> so if some if somebody told you that you could pay $700 for a 7% chance of making >> Uh 19 grand. >> Okay. So some if you if if if somebody said you have a 17% chance cuz you double the delta of the of the short the
[01:03:21] actual short would you pay $700 for for a 14% chance of making 19 grand? I think >> Yeah, [laughter] probably. >> I think that's I think that's positive. >> if they told you you could if they told
[01:03:34] you you could if they told you you had like what do we had? We had like maybe 15 days to do that. Um that was the that's the caveat. But it's also that wasn't in a vacuum. It was actually against other things that we had.
[01:03:48] >> But it is it is an interesting question. >> But even in a vacuum, it's those are >> Yeah. >> Um in my Amazon trade, I'm actually slightly up. Not up a whole lot because of the way it's ripped.
[01:04:01] >> Yeah. I'm down now, but we missed we missed our 1 second window where we could close it for 200 bucks. Uh because Amazon just ripped another seven points >> Well, that's the problem with the crab trade. The crab versus diagonal. I like
[01:04:14] the crab trade. I love the setup, but the wild rips aren't you're you're sometimes either scratch or not make any money >> yeah, we probably could have gone wider, I guess. I mean, in my case, I probably
[01:04:27] could have gone wider since I was using some weaker further out options. >> Yeah, but uh yeah, the interesting thing is like even with the rip, let's say I don't get filled here. What I could do is uh close this component here for
[01:04:45] whatever value it is. It would be uh what is this? 255. Yeah, 2,400 bucks. So, I could buy this back and then roll it out to like a
[01:04:57] 7day. And I would imagine I can just do the same the same strikes and pick up a little bit of premium. So yeah, if I really needed to, I could move this out to the 7-day, give myself some more time, and just hope that it drops. If it
[01:05:11] is not profitable. But you can still make this adjustment for a small credit, make this adjustment for a small credit, at least right now. Uh so we'll see. We will see. Uh yeah, EM's up 40. NASDAQ up 470. Crazy move here to the upside, but
[01:05:28] >> we're seeing some some nice trades. Meta, what what are we doing here? Oh, we did the Super Bowl in Meta. >> Yes, we did yesterday. So, I've had to close out a couple of things here just the way that they
[01:05:41] things here just the way that they ripped in Marll and in GLW. I had short puts from the day where we just tanked and um I think uh I I eventually added some call spreads to those. So, Marll, I was short the 165 put. I know it's high
[01:05:56] thought this was such a crazy move to the downside that this was an order and spread. I just closed that whole thing out for a nice little credit. And then uh same thing with GLW. I was short the 110 put. Um and then I also added the
[01:06:10] 140 and 160 call after this big rip. Closed both those out. Both of those are um both those are at least like thousand winners. So that worked out well. winners. So that worked out well. >> Good. And then um I just closed out
[01:06:25] uh one of the uh super bulls that I put on from the other day in S&P. I was on from the other day in S&P. I was short the uh 7300 7290 put spread um and short the uh 7300 7290 put spread um and long the 7475 74.95 call spread. I just
[01:06:38] closed that out for 1,200 bucks. >> Lovely. >> So like I said, we want the rips. We don't really And then if we slide back down, that'll be even better. Even better. Yeah, the slide would be just
[01:06:51] pure magic. Um, >> but we've gotten some two-way action >> Yeah, >> we sure have 100%. >> Um, but yeah, I think we'll we'll see what this market brings us. But yeah,
[01:07:03] this Meta position, uh, we put on this Super Bowl just to play for a rip back to the upside, but longer term. So, we did the 52510 short put spread and then the 600 615 call spread. So 10 point wide put spread
[01:07:16] to finance a 15oint wide call spread all the way out in October and collected a options expire worthless you still keep the dollar but you've got that $1,500 asymmetry to the upside. Uh that's working out nicely. Microsoft we the
[01:07:31] calendar. Closed everything else after the rip yesterday and Intel trying to recover here. Short put at 130, short call at 120, and uh we'll just keep
[01:07:43] rolling that premium. I guess this actually we're at the 21day mark. I think it might be time to roll this thing from August to SE. >> See what kind of premium we can get. So, if we just keep the same inversion. Uh
[01:07:58] wanted to, I could I could remove this inversion a little bit. Um or just remove remove it entirely. The more you delta you get because you don't have this 10point wide uh situation here. But
[01:08:14] to 120, I'll just keep this inversion because I can always like to your point back in step, roll it to October, and then remove the inversion. your inversion, correct? >> Oh, yeah. I I already have I already
[01:08:31] >> Perfect. You can keep it inverted because it's it makes sense to keep that >> Wow. Apple absolutely >> 470. >> Uh market's sliding a little bit. Oh,
[01:08:44] >> Oh, >> What are you doing? >> Nice, nice, nice, nice, nice. >> Uh Apple down 30 points. Crazy.
[01:08:56] >> Yeah, I had the I had to put diagonal in there. I had the uh long step 340, short 325 uh put diagonal. That was one of my trades of the day a couple of days back. profit. >> Yeah, this one
[01:09:10] >> If you just listened to the signals yesterday, you you were doing good here cuz like Apple was the one that was down yesterday in that 100 point S&P move to the upside. Um, and Amazon had that pre-market rally with Microsoft's big
[01:09:26] >> still crazy to see it down 30 points. >> Yeah, >> but the down moves are easier because you keep the volatility, right? So, you can defend it. You keep the volatility
[01:09:39] that. So, it's easier to sell premium against it. You can add calls. You can where the get sucked out is a little more tricky. >> I mean, this >> look at the fade. You got to love it.
[01:09:53] >> look at the fade. You got to love it. >> I'm going to put this in for 50 bucks. Yeah, [laughter] just give me just give me five grand >> I just want five grand. Just five grand. >> I just want five grand. It's I mean I'm
[01:10:06] wedding. We got We got to >> That's too much to ask for, right? >> We got to make it rain. [clears throat] Uh and then let's do let's do two grand >> Speaking of making it rain, Mike, you know it's going to rain all day today.
[01:10:21] >> I know. Free car wash on my way to Springfield. [laughter] Here you go. Um, but there's no better car wash person than the SIBO garage. >> Ah, my guy Dave. I know. I miss Dave. Man, miss Dave. $20 for the car wash. I
[01:10:38] mean, truthfully, the car wash is like $58. But, [laughter] but the parking was expense. >> There you go. >> There you go. Uh, yeah. Crazy moves here. Absolutely nuts. [gasps]
[01:10:53] >> You have a $50 in for the NDX. Did you put anything for the SPX in? bucks. >> So So hopefully you walk away with in the >> correct. I like that.
[01:11:05] >> Yes. If if we see this market go from green to red, which it it seems to be moving in that direction. We just sold off half of the gains uh thus far. I think we'll be in business. >> I think we'll be in business. We're
[01:11:19] right there with the 7450 at the money. Uh, what? Treasury has informed banks it Treasury has informed banks it may intervene in the Japanese yen market >> Oo, >> get out.
[01:11:34] good. >> Yeah, this huge came yesterday >> and they came out 15 minutes ago that the Wow.
[01:11:46] >> And look at this. This is still a massive intraday range and we've only >> Yeah. >> Crazy. Uh but I guess this this encompasses the pre-market session, too. But still huge inday range. E- mini is
[01:11:59] is going to happen. >> It's going to happen. >> Yes. Yes, >> it's happening. happen. >> It's nuts. Why is Amazon not going down?
[01:12:11] What What are we doing here, Amazon? >> I know. I don't know. That's the one thing that's not going down. Um, okay. So, I'm gonna I'm gonna replace this. I'm gonna crank this up. Let's do Let's do 11:15 and just try and get that solid
[01:12:25] >> Costco $12. >> Flash crash. Uh, Costco. >> Costco. >> yeah, it would seem the rotation is still in effect, gang. Uh, I see Walmart
[01:12:41] down, McDonald's, T-Mobile, Lowe's, Pepsi, Costco. Um, all down. Proctor and Gamble down. Um, and I think software kind of hard. It's kind of hard to tell kind of hard. It's kind of hard to tell with software yet. You got um
[01:12:55] uh you got uh Uber down. You got Palunteer slightly up. What's CRM doing? I have a position in there. That's flat. So, the software trade seems to be a little bit flat today. Microsoft is still booming though.
[01:13:09] still booming though. >> Yeah, 100%. Well, Liz, it's been fun. We'll see you a little bit later today. I will be thinking about you guys. Good >> All you need to know is if we go flat or down, we are going to be smiling.
[01:13:23] Thanks. Good luck, guys. >> All right. Adios. >> E- mini sliding down uh half half their gains. Only up 15 now. NASDAQ up 230. This is the lowest print we've seen of the day. Uh hopefully it continues for
[01:13:36] our butterfly sake. But we're going to take a quick 90 second break. We'll be back on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[01:15:38] the show. E- minis are sliding, only up seven. NASDAQ only up 170. We've got the one and only person on the line that might be able to save us in this NASDAQ might be able to save us in this NASDAQ butterfly. E, whatever contacts you've
[01:15:51] got in the NASDAQ land, we need you to just whisper 28,000. 28,000. got to do. >> That's where we need it. I mean, with the volatility we've seen, what what we ran from, I think Wednesday's lows over
[01:16:06] hours. So, you know what? I think I think the the market has a range, but I Let's definitely push this down a little bit lower cuz we put on some short delta slide to the downside would would be really nice on this Friday.
[01:16:21] >> Yeah. I mean, we when the market opened and it ripped higher, I was like, uh, maybe not. But now, like, we've given up all of the gains in the E- Minis and NASDAQ. I would be I would be shocked if this didn't turn red.
[01:16:33] >> the first pullback, what in the last 24 hours? Yesterday was crazy. I mean, we didn't have a downtick all day. That was wild. Um, but yeah, good to be here. A >> Things going red. Yep. Things are going red. I'm seeing CRM go red. I'm seeing
[01:16:46] Tesla go red. >> Uh, Cororeweave go red. Ewy going red. >> Marvel is just up. >> Wow. Yeah, Amazon uh still up 31 points.
[01:16:58] Kind of crazy to see it holding steady as the NASDAQ slides, but yeah, we need NASDAQ down or we need the Amazon down a tiny bit. We need NDX down at 28,000. tiny bit. We need NDX down at 28,000. Exactly. And we need S&P down at 7,400.
[01:17:13] Exactly. But yeah, as it stands right now, like you just the Russell just >> it did. >> The Dow is on its way. The E- Minis are on their way. Only five points now to the upside. So, this could be uh this
[01:17:27] could be a exactly what we need here. >> Yeah, seems like it'd be a nice little >> Yeah. >> No, I know earnings trades. The only earnings trades that I did so far in
[01:17:41] call it, is Google so far. That one's been a little bit boring. We sold an one of the most like boring trades that you could put on, but we've we've additional credit rolling down that call side, but in terms of earnings, that's
[01:17:55] pretty much it. I know uh Apple had theirs last night. Did they say anything >> Um I don't think they said anything interesting, but it was more of like um whether it's um you know, Apple Pay or all these other things. They're just
[01:18:08] kind of like blah, I think, was the takeaway there. So, they're not they're not you know, innovating, I think. And that's I think that's what um market participants are disappointed about. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, a lot of volatility
[01:18:22] >> We've uh we got some people in YouTube chat saying, "Look at oil. Big spike there at 757 and we've chopped around." Uh E- Minis just tried to tick red. Wild day here. But yeah, oil's creeping up. NASDAQ and E- Minis just gave up all
[01:18:37] their gains. E- mini is about to tick red here. Just ticked red. Down 50 cents >> Yeah, we're down on the day. >> It's Reddit. Red is dumb. 32 bones. last what last 60 seconds on here on NASDAQ. So
[01:18:51] Uh what what did you guys put on? You guys had a a butterfly to the downside. Is that what we did today? Yes, we've had a butterfly on for uh about a week and we just put this on for this cycle specifically just to play for
[01:19:06] uh you know in case these earnings go south, let's put on this really high max value butterfly to see if we can uh capture some of that value uh or hedge happened. So, >> bought this butterfly in NDX for 700
[01:19:19] bucks. Currently trading for a $2,500 winner expiring today with a [snorts] winner expiring today with a [snorts] max profit of 19K. And then SPX. >> Yeah, it's like right there. Uh SPX. Both of these just moved in the money
[01:19:32] Both of these just moved in the money slightly. Uh 7450, 7,400, 7350. This one we bought for 300 bucks and currently trading for $1,000 winner. But I mean, now, I think we'll see the NASDAQ tick red in uh a little bit here if we
[01:19:48] continue to see this possible. It makes it a little bit more comfortable. The into the open and then just getting completely eaten up. Really a testament to how weak the market is right now. And given the rally we've seen, did you guys
[01:20:01] look into the story with uh I forget his name with the hedge fund manager, the really interesting. I mean, I don't know if that's just another headline that >> uh you know, gets a little bit of buzz. Uh but I mean, at the same time, I mean,
[01:20:15] some pretty big moving uh pretty pretty big money they're moving around there. >> Yeah, Leopold. That was the name. Yeah, Liupold. >> Yeah, look at this NASDAQ move. We we hit 287
[01:20:28] >> and then slide >> 5 minutes later just straight down. Craziness >> craziness here in the stock market chart >> I mean, I just think you're seeing a lot of money move around right now over the
[01:20:41] last couple of days, right? And the interesting thing is that it's still the trends are still in place as terms of the divergence between the chips, the the divergence between the chips, the software, the consumer staple stuff. Um,
[01:20:54] of like it. It's kind of comforting because you kind of can kind of see the trend happening and it uh it helps you kind of determine what to trade. >> Yeah, 100%. For sure. Yeah, YouTube chat going crazy
[01:21:09] For sure. Yeah, YouTube chat going crazy here. Uh yeah, it is a nutty day. UPS, >> I didn't do anything in there. >> Yeah, nothing nothing moving around >> had the other day, but I never did anything.
[01:21:24] >> Yeah, big intraday selloff here. Uh let's see if it holds. E-in are up 450 now. NASDAQ up 150. But >> Roblox is decimated down 26%. >> Wow. I'm not Roblox. That's a company that I'm not going to sleep on in the
[01:21:39] long term that they they've uh I I I I've been hearing a lot more people talk about Roblox and I've seen some more things pop up and like they could be in-game currency and like the different the different types of games on there. I
[01:21:53] just wasn't putting as much respect on Roblox's name as I probably should have >> But uh no, they're pretty solid. They they've they're pretty far along look like it's reflecting that today. I don't know what type of news came out.
[01:22:06] >> Yeah. >> Okay. Yeah, they're getting crushed right now. I don't know. I knew Roblox uh had some staying power when I heard that my little 10-year-old brother stole his mom's credit card and used it to buy
[01:22:20] Robux and they she was like, "What is this charge?" And she she marked it as fraud and then found out that it wasn't fraud. Uh [laughter] so that's that's when you know >> that Roblox is uh is doing well when the
[01:22:32] kids are out there. apparently depending on how much Rob Robux I think it is you have on the game. I mean there's like there's like status to it and with like Robux you have and I'm like there's like an in-game a legit in-game economy in
[01:22:47] interesting. Yeah. >> First of all, the fact that you weren't >> shows you you're such a boomer when it comes to Roblox. Look at you. You're a >> Hey, look. Roblox. You're [laughter] not playing Rob. You're not sitting over
[01:23:01] not. My kid is. That's why I know about it. [laughter] >> 13. You've been playing it forever. Okay. >> Okay. >> But see, you're you're a Roblox boomer.
[01:23:13] >> But that's why I got to keep my ears to the young the younger brother. I going on. And when I say younger, it Well, you do see a lot of these trends between the ages of like 13 and 18 especially. So, it's always interesting
[01:23:25] know what I mean? >> But they always say never like build a they change. Look at look at Snapchat. >> They grow. Yeah. well. Jamal. >> Well, you know, you change, right? Like
[01:23:39] change. I mean, think about you 10 years ago. The foods you like and what you like now. And you know, like just your like the things that you do or whatever. changes, right? It changes. So, but then you get to the point where your age now,
[01:23:53] next 20 years. Watch. >> No, I I I kind of feel like that kicked in for me a little bit early. I I I kind of feel the same from when I was like 17 [laughter] that. >> But anyways, yeah,
[01:24:05] businesses, right? Like businesses always got to be paying attention to trends, but if you build trends, like if you build a business around >> 16 year olds like like uh Snapchat, >> look at Snapchat stock.
[01:24:17] >> Yeah. Look, it look Snapchat's prime was when I was coming up in middle school, high school, that was its prime. And I barely check it now. The only time I open Snapchat is to look at old memories like a old like an old gallery. So
[01:24:29] more irrelevant now because again I was kind of the prime generation for that point. >> Time keeps on ticking. >> It does keep on ticking. As NASDAQ sells off, those S&P butterflies are going to
[01:24:42] >> Yeah. NASDAQ sitting near the session lows and we're this market is trying to go much lower. It feels like uh we started green across the board. E- minis are now red. Dow is red, Russell's red, NASDAQ's uh only up 80 85 points, 90
[01:24:57] points. Uh this is a one minute chart, so you can see the pressure that we're seeing uh continue to the downside here. But if this NASDAQ ticks red, we're butterflies. Uh >> I've got the working order at uh 50
[01:25:13] bucks in the NASDAQ one and 20 bucks in the S&P one. They're both in the money, slightly out of the money on the NDX one for now. But again, if the NASDAQ goes flat, we'll be 100 points in the money and this thing will uh probably fill,
[01:25:28] >> it would be wild. >> My the the the markets in Micron are so wide right now. Um I'm just looking at the P&L and I'll go up positive 50 on like, that's some wide markets on this spread right now. But yeah, no, these
[01:25:44] we'll see what we get. Got a lot of time left. Yeah. Are there any specific NASDAQ levels you're looking at? >> Um, I mean, if we sell off to the downside, I'd really love to see 28,190. Uh, that's going to be a level I'm
[01:25:58] looking at. I was a little bit more bearish underneath 28,470s. So, anything anything below below there would be really nice for the day, but >> Yeah. >> Crazy crazy slide here. It's down
[01:26:11] >> 500 points from the high. Uh, [snorts] almost. I am in support of 28,000190 cuz 28,000. >> Hey, if we get to 28,000, let me know me, you know, [laughter] >> definitely allow me to tag along with
[01:26:26] you guys. >> Hey, we we can make it happen for sure. But yeah, I think uh E- Min's catching a bid here now. Up seven, NASDAQ up 160. But this feels like a uh an illusion. We're basically just covering the
[01:26:41] shorts. These are these are feel like short covering rallies, these little down. So, >> uh we will see how this [snorts] market Yeah, there there you go. E- mini is selling off again. But yeah, we need S&P
[01:26:55] selling off again. But yeah, we need S&P at 7,400. We need NDX at 28,000 and uh this portfolio is going to get a lot more juicy. That's for sure. >> But e appreciate your time and uh yeah, we'll see what happens with the NASDAQ.
[01:27:09] But if you're scalping it, post those things to the follow page and uh we'll >> Yep. >> You got it. Uh E- Minis flat. NASDAQ up 150. Dow and the Russell are flat. Completely erased the gains here today.
[01:27:24] Uh we're waiting on NDX and S&P to sell off here and Amazon to sell off maybe filled on a closing order, but we're going to take a quick 90 second break. We got Dr. Jim coming up on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Life.
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[01:29:42] morning to you guys, man. I hope you neck of the woods and let me know what to pump that algo. I know it's a little bit early for the from theory to
[01:29:55] practice fam, but we got to pump the algo the same as we always do. So, Ben, bring us into the market. Uh yeah, EM S&Ps are down a few points. You got the NASDAQ risk-free instrument up about a honey on the day. You got the boomers
[01:30:09] struggling. You got the Russell 3000 struggling heading back down to 2,000. bonds down, you got the nose down, you got a a whole bunch of other stuff, but what I want to talk about today, we got to go inside the trade. So, I did a
[01:30:24] couple of earnings trades last night. We did Amazon, we missed it. We did Apple, about here in a second. We did Reddit. We could not have missed it more badly. their entirety on From theory to Practice later today to give you a
[01:30:39] reason to watch that show. But I will say one thing quickly before I get to the new trade that I want to do for you guys. Here it is in meta. You can see homework before the show. I was like, I think there's a little something we
[01:30:52] could do in meta post earnings to kind of take advantage of the uh the volatility collapse and well, not really the volatility collapse. Uh the continued somewhat uh subtly elevated volatility, I guess you would I guess
[01:31:06] butterflies last night. Here's something that's interesting. So, Amazon, we uh we missed it. I mean, we could not have possibly been more wrong on this trade. The fade doctor gym strategy. Again, it gets you closer to whatever
[01:31:23] want to retire early. It can help with that. You might want to get a tiny house as a vacation home. It can help with that. You may want to send your kids to college. man, that is the best thing that it can do for you today. And so
[01:31:38] to work. It's going to go out of the money. That's not really going to be a problem. Reddit, we missed it. So Reddit, again, I'm as surprised as you guys, right? We know that the source of truth in the world, in the market,
[01:31:51] anywhere you might be looking is found only in the subreddits. And so the fact that Reddit's down 36, I'm as surprised as you are. But we'll talk more about that here uh later today. It's Apple that's the really interesting one that I
[01:32:05] from this trade and then we'll go inside the trade and then later on on the practice we'll probably learn this very same thing again because the content is not going to create itself but if you look at a butterfly so it's a great way
[01:32:18] take a shot it's all the things that we talk about all the time I love doing butterflies around binary events FOMC earnings whatever right that's true but butterfly because this was a downside butterfly right like if you look at
[01:32:31] Apple, I mean, it's down 31. I mean, you don't get more downside than what Apple is doing this morning. That's about as downside as it comes with the stock now down about 9 or 10%. And so, with a butterfly, this is a really good
[01:32:45] understand if maybe you've not done a butterfly before. It's not just a single dimension trade. It's not just onedimensional. It's actually multi-dimensional. So, you need to get the direction right. That's obviously
[01:33:00] step number one. But you also need to get the magnitude of the direction right. Like if you overshoot your mark by too much like we did on Apple this morning, then you're going to be in a max loss scenario there too. Like in the
[01:33:12] end, that's no different than what happened with Amazon. That's no Reddit. And so just understand again what you're signing up for with a butterfly. You are in a situation where you got to get the direction right, but
[01:33:25] you got to get the magnitude of that direction. And so that's why I do like using the expected move to kind of anchor my strikes because it gives me somewhat of an objective kind of, you know, range or some objective boundary
[01:33:38] likely going to happen with the magnitude of the move. But again, holy grail, right? The expected move is not foolproof. It's just telling you based on the volatility metrics today, what is likely to happen if the stock
[01:33:52] that's only going to happen, you know, 68 67% of the time based on a standard normal distribution. So, I just want to bring this up because it's it's quite a valuable teachable moment for us here now because as you can see, we're very
[01:34:08] very close to maximum loss. And so, again, right, I mean, you can fill in the blank with whatever reason might be relevant in that moment, but the FA gym relevant in that moment, but the FA gym strategy is about to go is about to go
[01:34:21] uh there we go. is about to go um three for three and so all right so let's go ahead and let's now go to the new trade uh today so what I want to do today and man you guys are doing it you are putting in some work at point B in the
[01:34:38] house look at Wolf Wolf in the house clown baby is here Sam L is here X is here DMZ is here man you guys are here early absolutely early and so all right
[01:34:50] let's go ahead S&P is down 20 on on the day. Let's go to Meta. So, here's what I want to do. So, for Meta, so one of the things that's really interesting about earnings is you have these stocks that get bit up into
[01:35:03] getting bit up necessarily, although that can certainly happen. I mean the volatility expansions going into earnings that almost happen like clockwork, very reliable. It's kind of what we would what we would expect, you
[01:35:16] know, kind of, you know, on any given earnings day, we're going to expect volat expansion going into this, guys. Okay. When the number comes out though, Wednesday, right? It was just two days ago. A lot of times you get a really big
[01:35:30] volatility crush right out of the gates, but then the volatility still remains elevated for maybe a day or two or three. So, you can put yourself in a position where it's like, all right, I can actually step in after the event,
[01:35:44] just kind of, you know, sift through the rubble that was the earnings event and say, "All right, let me see if I can't find an opportunity." Like, "Let me see if I can't find a little something that might be of value." And so for Meta
[01:35:57] here, you've got the IV rank at 45 a half. This is still very, very doable for a new short premium position in my opinion. I mean, the team has looked at this for so many years. I mean, anything over 30 is usually a pretty good entry
[01:36:11] point for a short premium position. Of course, 40 is better than 30, 50 is better than 40, and 75 is better than 50, and so on and so forth. But when you right, when am I going to pull the trigger?" Like, when am I going to go
[01:36:24] and get this new trade on? It can be perfect possible time. If you always wait for kind of all the stars to align combination lock to be set exactly where you want it before you lay out a new
[01:36:38] trade. And so, I kind of think 30 is very reasonable. I mean personally I think 20 can work. I mean like personally personally man I think you can make 12. I think you can make a strong case for 12. Like if you really
[01:36:51] are just got you have a strong hankering for short premium and you're like man I really want to get the probabilities working for me. Like I just it's been a minute since I've stewed in the bathtub of filth and I miss it. Like if you find
[01:37:05] yourself in that position then you could sell an IVR of 12. You could sell an IVR of 13. You could sell an IVR of 15. Like, I don't really see a huge problem with that. Now, is it going to be as effective as if IVR were higher? No, it
[01:37:18] people that have been trading for a while, like y'all remember 2017, right? while, like y'all remember 2017, right? The VIX was eight, not 18, not 28. The
[01:37:30] VIX was eight. Like, you think 16, 17, 15 is bad. Trust me, it could be much, much worse. And so sometimes depending on the context, which is not necessarily moving around so much and volatility has been relatively elevated, you get into a
[01:37:46] VIX has been, you know, 10, 11, 12, 13, like it's coming. It's coming again for sure. You see an IVR of 14, you're like, whoa, like what's going on? Like what is crazy stuff. And so when that happens, I wouldn't completely dismiss
[01:38:00] it from the old uh radar for a short premium opportunity. Even S&P's down 33. let me know in the chat what is going on out there. What is happening in the world? I mean, that's almost a half percent move to the downside. That's
[01:38:15] crazy. But let's go to Meta. So, here's what I want to do. I want to go ahead and uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see. So, Meta got bamboozled from earnings
[01:38:27] this a daily chart? Wow, that's a crazy looking daily chart. That is a C. This looks like a silver daily chart or like a gold daily chart or like a lean hogs
[01:38:39] daily chart, like a black cheese daily chart. Uh, if any of the from theory to show, which I'm pretty sure that's the only people that are watching the you guys remember, I haven't brought this up on Inside the Trade, but on from
[01:38:53] theory to practice, I told you guys that uh one of my boys here in St. Pete, good guy. My man Clinton, he works for Sarento Cheese. So, this is the craziest story before, this this might actually be somewhat valuable to you. I mean, by
[01:39:08] around that C plus to B minus level of value. My man works for Sarento, the grocery stores, it's whatever. Like, he does the analysis for Sar for Sarento.
[01:39:20] department and like all that stuff. Well, I was chatting with him. This was up when we see each other. He actually monitors the price of cheese futures. Like, did you guys even know that you could trade cheese futures?
[01:39:35] Now, it's super thinly traded. Like, nobody trades it. Like, you can't go trade it today. Like, it's not untasty. I don't even know that you can trade it on really any brokers. Like, I think you need to go to Wisconsin. Like, you need
[01:39:47] to be physically in Wisconsin to trade cheese futures. So somehow Clinton gets like a live feed to like the fields and stuff and like the factories and stuff and like you know the milk and the cows and whatever so he can see the price of
[01:40:00] cheese futures. He's actually monitoring the price of cheese futures to determine the pricing strategy of what they're doing at Sarrento. Like is that not the the coolest I mean it might be in the top five. But that's pretty cool. Like
[01:40:15] monitoring cheese and there's all kinds of cheese. There's like block cheese and sometimes you got to see what they're doing in monster before you flip on over crazy man. Like you guys thought what we did was crazy. No, man. You get that
[01:40:31] Swiss mustard pear trade on. That is some crazy crazy stuff. But anyway, a lot of times when you look at uh like these future charts, you see a bunch of gaps in the chart because you know the the regular trading hours are are
[01:40:44] catching up to the uh you know the futures prices that have been trading you know 245 around the clock whatever you don't typically see this many gaps you don't typically see this many gaps on an individual stock but uh but alas
[01:40:56] that is what we see here with uh with Meta. And so let's go ahead and uh uh I see [laughter] you guys in the chat too talking about uh sounds cheesy. Uh better be a guda trader and a cheese speculator. That's good stuff, man.
[01:41:11] him a couple days ago and we were talking about it and he was like, "It's so thin." I'm like, "Yeah, because nobody knows about it, man. You need to traders." Like I got a bunch of traders. Like just tell us the ticker. Tell us
[01:41:25] Wisconsin. We'll be in Wisconsin. just tell us where to be. We'll be there, man. We'll be trading it uh before you know it. And so we can thicken up that market, no problem. But uh but anyway, I digress. Most certainly off of a
[01:41:38] digression at this point. Let's go to Meta. Let's go into the September cycle with 49 days to go. And I kind of think I want to take advantage of the huge contrarian, right? Let's step in with a bullish trade in Meta. Let's get in
[01:41:51] here. Let's do something very simple, very straightforward. I'm just thinking we sell a put spread. I'm just thinking we sell I mean maybe a 535 530 put spread. I mean you know this isn't going to blow your hair back. This isn't going
[01:42:04] another occurrence. It can be another data point. And again it's defined risk. always muted with defined risk. At least in my opinion and from my vantage point trading is with undefined risk. and the consistency and everything you want to
[01:42:19] achieve as a trader is uh can be more I don't want to say more easily found because that would be a bit disingenuous but in all the conversations I've had conversations I've had all the live events and whatever like the one common
[01:42:31] denominator across all the successful traders that I've connected with has been a heavy emphasis on undefined risk. Now, there may have been a couple of defined risk magicians that kind of snuck through security and had
[01:42:43] few and far between. I just round up to 100% for my mental records. And so, time to time, you know, you want to do something defined risk. I think that's obviously totally fine. And if you're brand new to trading, you should only be
[01:42:57] clear, you need the reps. You need the experience. You're not ready for short straddles in gold uh just yet. But it'll come. It'll come. Let's do uh let's try All right, we got feel got improved at 219. There you go. A little short put
[01:43:12] 219. There you go. A little short put spread in uh in meta. Okay, so let me go are at. I see you guys in the chat, man. Look at you guys are putting in work. guys look a little laxical today. But uh but you guys are here and so I
[01:43:27] the heartbeats. And uh yeah, let's do it. And so let's see. I see point B is here. Uh, for the trades that are being tested, here's a great question. For the talk about assignment risk? Again, it all comes down to exttrinsic value. It
[01:43:42] know Mike is coming back on the show in a couple of minutes and he can back me exttrinsic value. It always comes down to exttrinsic value. And so, when it some extrinsic value in the option, the likelihood that you are assigned is
[01:43:56] so, just keep that in mind as you're trying to monitor the likelihood of assignment on whatever strategy you might have on. And also remember if you do happen to have a defined risk strategy on whether it's a vertical
[01:44:08] strategy and one of the legs gets assigned but you still have the other leg on. Understand as long as you don't break the strategy up the package and you're lagging out and it becomes something that it was
[01:44:24] never intended to be. Your risk parameters on the trade are unchanged. They are the same as they were before you took assignment. And so understand different and the buying powers can change and all that kind of stuff. That
[01:44:37] territory of assignment, but understand that your risk parameters don't change when you uh when you take assignment on a single leg. just because it's such a quick show, just such a a quick turnaround. But I
[01:44:51] see Mr. Pillows is here now. I want some cheese. I see uh let's see, Ashan, the court position is here obviously, man. I appreciate you. Uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see who else we got cuz we got to go. We got like a couple seconds to go.
[01:45:04] Blue wackadoo, I'm fed up with this market. That's some pretty good stuff. says, "Cottage cheese, tuna fish, no applesauce needed." So, I've actually combination cuz I tried it all, man, before I settled on the Nash equilibrium
[01:45:19] point of tuna fish and applesauce. I tried cottage cheese and tuna fish. And let me tell you something, that is way worse. Like [laughter] if you hear tuna fish and applesauce and you think it can't get worse, it can. If you hear the
[01:45:32] can't get worse, it can. And so tuna fish and cottage cheese, that might be it looks like I I got to go. I got to run, man. I appreciate you guys so much. I will see you guys later today for from the to practice, 2:30 Eastern, 1:30
[01:45:46] central. And I'll see you guys later today.
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[01:48:50] the show. We've got a crazy market here. E- Mini is down 30, NASDAQ down 40. I just closed those hedges. $4,100 winner in NDX Butterfly, $1,400 winner in the S&P Butterfly. Who would have thought that it was possible?
[01:49:06] >> Absolutely nuts. But we got Tim Knight on the line here, and I'm sure you're >> I am, but I'm not. And allow me to explain. Um, couple of things. So I was
[01:49:19] this morning uh which I'll give anyway because I think it's an important u which is that you know as we look at charts we have to consider what should
[01:49:31] charts we have to consider what should happen and what will happen or what does happen. So for example um and this isn't necessarily with charts it's just like judging any instrument. So SpaceX when SpaceX first came public and it climbed
[01:49:44] for a couple of days and it was worth um the three trillion I think the uh the sort of should happen is this should be a lot lower because you know no company should be valued at like a 100x sales. I sold my tiny little startup a quarter
[01:50:00] century ago profit.net for $8 million which is about two times sales. It would have been nice to have received $400 million for my tiny little company, but that would be silly. So, I got a sensible amount. These days, um, with
[01:50:16] SpaceX, it's like this is bananas. It should go down. And it and it did. So, that those aligned this morning, as I looked at the ES, as I looked at the ENQ, cuz we had, you know, we had this like incredible rally yesterday. We had
[01:50:29] this big followthrough last night, biggest jump in South Korea of all time. And my my feeling was that from a charting perspective, what should happen is that short everything with a ticker symbol. It this is this is going to be
[01:50:42] the peak and it's going to reverse lower. What will happen remains to be seen. What I was prepared for this morning cuz I'm kind of made for days like this. I'll say it again. I am made for days like this. What I was prepared
[01:50:54] for days like this. What I was prepared to do was systematically, diligently, symbol by symbol, short this and that and the other and so forth. I didn't >> fast. >> Yeah. I thought I thought this would be
[01:51:08] a you know that everything's up and so like, okay, you get you're getting better prices and just kind of spend my day systematic systematically going through there. Instead, it was sort of, and there's good news at the
[01:51:21] end of this, it was like the worst of both worlds. The first ding ding ding everything left and right cuz I set, you know, stop losses on my short positions. are dynamite charts. I'm going to get back in them at worse prices and greater
[01:51:36] risk. Yay." And so things moving that fast, it stinks. Um, but you know, it's not like I don't trade to be like, well, [snorts] fingers crossed I set stop prices. Now, the good news in all this is that where I don't set stop prices,
[01:51:51] where I just have more of a long-term view is my options portfolio, which is just like long-term directional trades. And, you know, the fact is that, you And, you know, the fact is that, you know, long SPY puts, long cube puts, and
[01:52:03] know, long SPY puts, long cube puts, and six others. And I didn't touch that. And so that was unbismerched by my clever little stop-loss prices and it's doing just fine. Thanks for asking. But otherwise, it's been kind of this
[01:52:15] frantic like, oh my god, I had great positions on and now like I'll just pay more for them. So yeah, it's mixed feelings. Let's just say that. opened up big. I had some long delta. I actually closed out um a lot of
[01:52:29] positions to your effect basically getting short some things in that in that regard cuz I closed them out with the big moves. Marll, a couple of other names. So, it's been a great morning, Tim. It's been a great morning.
[01:52:41] >> Well, see you guys on Monday. [laughter] But, uh, yeah, I mean, the the open was basically the high on almost everything. Um, and, uh, like I say, I mean, God
[01:52:53] I don't want to give give people the impression that don't set stop prices. Not at all. It's very rare that I regret and resent the stops I put in. There they're set that based on sensible levels and the fact is that we could
[01:53:06] much right now. That's why they're there. Yesterday I got stopped at a bunch of stuff and I'm glad because it kept going up. So it's okay. It happens. It's like you know that's insurance. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's true.
[01:53:20] >> So uh having ranted uh I can show you a couple of charts a little bit kind of to show you kind of what my rationale was for for remaining uh uh bearish on stuff. the the the weaker of these is the ES. I'm I'm I'm I'm less bearish on
[01:53:36] the likes of the S&P. Um basically because we got really faked out, you nicely. Um and then undid that yesterday and then some and then today open as we look here, you know, we're basically we've
[01:53:52] here, you know, we're basically we've spent all this time going nowhere fast. Tons of smoke, no fire. We're at the same price level now that we were in on May 13. Uh it's just like relentless. Up, down, up, down, up, down. It just it
[01:54:05] can't make up its mind. Uh for nimble traders, day traders who are good and lucky, they've been doing great. But uh for any sort of swing trader like myself, it's just like it's a mess. So, I'm afraid that our breach there uh
[01:54:19] didn't mean a thing. We're above it again. >> Yeah. I mean, say for the two obviously big days, it's it's basically kind of been a chop, right? >> Ground hamburger. Absolutely. Um, the
[01:54:32] one I feel better about, uh, a lot better is the ENQ. Now, um, sharp viewers may notice that this little line has has gone up. And I I try to be a very honest chartist. I don't move things around, so it seems like I'm
[01:54:46] always right. What I [snorts] wanted to do here was to show that, you know, as with the uh ES, the the dip below here was nice and all that, but I think the here because there's a couple of good things going for the one or two
[01:55:00] surviving bears out there. Thing number one is that this is a good chunk of overhead supply. Unlike the ES, which is just a mess, this has a large just a mess, this has a large multi-month substantial blob of overhead
[01:55:15] supply to do what we saw this morning, which is like sell into strength. The other cool thing at the moment, and you know, we're only an hour into the trading day barely, is that we've got this cool little shooting star showing
[01:55:28] that there's been a lot of attempt to go higher, but so far has been beaten back. Um, and so we've got a we've got a nice setup there. As I said, I already came into the day long cube puts, long spy puts, and they're Januaries. There's
[01:55:40] puts, and they're Januaries. There's lots of time on them. Um, but I did not expect to be looking at the ENQ 1 hour into the day and see anything that looked red. Uh, it's been quite a surprise, especially with what Amazon
[01:55:52] did last night. So, what are those bands? Curious. set by me. What I'm trying to do there's nothing. They're not Fibonacci. They're they're they're simp they're just simple horizontal lines to try to lay down
[01:56:06] resistance. >> And in this case, they've been resistance the whole way. And and by way of drawing these, it also helps define uh ranges of activity, which as precipitous as this fall has been,
[01:56:20] there's not long ranges, but this in particular was a was a pretty pretty decently sustained one. This only lasted about a week. Um and then uh for the past six trading days, we've been persistently below um this latest one.
[01:56:35] And so given what I was concerned about, and I alluded this yesterday afternoon, what I was concerned about is what we experienced Wednesday and Thursday here and here would be repeated in the same way we had here, which is break, looks
[01:56:50] hard reversal, and then follow through, follow through, that kind of thing. um that doesn't appear to be happening right now. Instead, we had an attempt [clears throat] to lift things higher, but just looking across the board um you
[01:57:05] but just looking across the board um you know, ESN inQ, RTY YM, all and BTC in right these days, by the way. Bitcoin is not my friend. Um everything's red. So, >> Yeah. I So, you have you have uh stops.
[01:57:20] of get alerted when certain things happen. And um one alert that did not go off was 28750. And so that's why you know I got my eyes on where you got that lower band because yeah it did not touch there. But it's interesting when we look
[01:57:33] at this week looking at Monday which is the one area where it almost touched and well it did go through it did it traded Monday 28763. That was the high and then Monday 28763. That was the high and then today 287 uh what is it 25 or something
[01:57:46] like that. So not quite above. So yeah right. >> Now I I've been so frenetic this morning. Uh, and again, not that it matters, but is there a particular reason for this selling except more
[01:57:58] sellers than buyers? But, you know, is has there been some news of any kind or has there been some news of any kind or is it just How about that? >> Uh, I don't I don't think I've I mean, we've been kind of doing the show here.
[01:58:11] >> occupied. >> I Yeah, I think it just I think it's just uh the week, you know? I mean, I think it's just just flows. >> Yeah. Well, the um the the one other item I wanted to show and I keep coming
[01:58:25] back to this is is China. Uh and you know, I was a little early on SMH. Um but not terribly early. I I I started messing around with SMH a few weeks before it topped and there was a little there were some losses along the way,
[01:58:40] but I finally got it right. Uh I got out of it literally within hours at the bottom. Unfortunately, those hours were between, you know, one day and the next, so it was pretty substantial, but pretty much got the bottom. I'm feeling the
[01:58:54] tilting at this windmill for the past couple of weeks. Has not gone well. But I look at this chart and this is I'll just say it uh clearly. FXI is my new
[01:59:07] just say it uh clearly. FXI is my new SMH. This is my new uh I mean I've gone from from South Korea to China at this point in terms of um what I'm after. And I I I've got longdated uh March 2027 $37 puts on this bad boy.
[01:59:24] And uh China's been doing amazing lately. They've been just blasting lately. They've been just blasting higher. And uh my my line in the sand, you asked me about lines earlier is this one here, which is just based on this
[01:59:36] important price gap. So long as we do not cross above that, uh I'm going to stick with these puts. But like I said, this is my new target. Um I think estimation is still great. I think estimation is plenty of more downside,
[01:59:50] but the the uh my focus right now has really uh turned toward FXI, which is [clears throat] not very heavily discussed or traded, but just wanted to >> Tim has a new prey, Mike. >> Yeah, that's a way to put Mike Quarry,
[02:00:06] [laughter] been a crazy time over the last couple weeks here. uh and like the Japanese yen, what a candle you saw yesterday and intraday uh move today. So, yeah, these
[02:00:22] there's always going to be new opportunities and new sectors that you might not realize you're trading until you are. [laughter] >> Yeah. But yeah, like I said this morning in general, I just [gasps and sighs]
[02:00:36] would have been nice a little more moderate. I just like, oh well, it'll on a little 15-minute break and we were down 40 points and 100 points in the
[02:00:48] NASDAQ. So, I like scrambled over to my platform to close those butterflies. So, to your point, can't even eat. Can't even get nourishment in these markets. >> Yeah. [clears throat] >> I think it's a mistake. Stick to
[02:01:00] chocolate. >> Fast acting carbs. [snorts] final one? >> Um, you know what? I'm I'm gonna end on that's the message I want to get across. Everybody take a peek at FXI. I uh we're
[02:01:17] all catching our breath right now. So, nothing nothing important to discuss, I >> Awesome. Well, appreciate your time, Tim. We'll see you later today. you. >> Yeah, E- Min and NASDAQ split here. Ein
[02:01:30] >> Yeah, E- Min and NASDAQ split here. Ein down 15, NASDAQ up 15 down. The Russell are down as well. But yeah, Bitcoin is pulling this whole market down. Down 4% in ETH and Bitcoin. and crude oil continues to creep higher. So maybe
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[02:03:45] E- Minis and NASDAQ sliding. Everything's red now. Not a green bar in sight unless it's crude oil uh or I guess some of these other random things chopping around. But Jamal absolutely nuts today. We close out of those
[02:03:58] butterfly. Are you still holding yours? >> I'm still holding mine. >> Oh no. >> This guy. [laughter] yesterday, bases are loaded. Grand slam opportunity. The green monster out left.
[02:04:15] get a little more. I'm going to try and get a little more, especially since this seems kind of weak here. So, um, >> it's funny that you already you already >> Yes. >> Yeah. Just just hold on a little bit
[02:04:28] happens. [laughter] Why not? >> I love it. But yeah, I mean, it's it's going to the the actual uh trade isn't going to move too much. Like this one, 1700 still trading for 1,500. Like, it's
[02:04:41] but you're right between that range with S&P and NDX. So yeah, the longer this day goes on, the bigger that profit tent's going to get, especially if we slide. And it feels like we will, honestly.
[02:04:56] I'm going to give it just a little bit of time here. Uh we'll see, you know, like I guess, honestly, I'll see what happens in in an hour when we get to the European close. We'll see what happens. >> Yeah. Well, we got a market measures for
[02:05:12] you sponsored by SIBO, which means one thing and one thing only. Miss Julia. >> Mrs. Julia. How could I How could I forget? Correct. Mrs. Julia. >> Miss Julia. M Julia. Man, am I still not used to
[02:05:27] >> Yeah, >> it's going great. Going great. Market's something like that. >> A little bit. Yeah. I don't know. And I >> [laughter] >> No, cats are great. We love cats.
[02:05:41] >> Mhm. Yeah, we're all We're all cat people here. sign. Although, we're not all wearing black this time, which I mean, we could have done a little better. >> Yeah. Well, we have to work out to be
[02:05:54] >> yeah. >> Yeah, that's right. Well, I got a market >> Let's do it. >> Let's do it. Okay, cool. So this is a piece uh from Sahil over on X if you want to give him a follow uh about the
[02:06:06] hidden risks of high pop strangles. Um we're going to be talking about like you know uh the the usual things about like the tail risk component relative to the lot of what we tend to talk about when it comes to the riskreward trade-off but
[02:06:20] know you don't always talk about. So >> Yeah. I like it. I have a feeling where this is going. >> I think you might I think you might have a sneaking suspicion. Um, but there's
[02:06:32] strategies, right? And, uh, usually want this balance of risk of reward [snorts] really, you know, capturing enough upside um, for the amount of risk and the type of risk that you're taking. And we usually judge, you know, often judge
[02:06:44] a position by its delta. Lower delta strategies tend to be higher pops. And does come with some hidden risks that we wanted to talk about. So, what are those downsides of high pop trades? Because, you know, and, you know, on their face,
[02:06:56] they look great. Probability of profit of like 90%. you know that that can look nice at first, but what are the hidden downsides that you don't always see uh >> Makes sense indeed. >> Let's do it. Okay. So, uh here we're
[02:07:10] just comparing some strangles uh going back from 2013 to present. These are 45 DTE managed at 21 DTE. So, using a little bit of early management in there getting down to like the 10 delta, five delta, two delta strangles, you're
[02:07:23] delta, two delta strangles, you're getting pops upwards of 80%. Um, but the credit you're collecting and then the consequential median P&L um, drops off expect. That's really the trade-off when you're going wider and wider. You're
[02:07:36] profit, but you're collecting less, you know, and that affects median P&L overall. And even though those can be like small steady gains, especially when you're profiting, you know, overwhelming majority of the time, those are not
[02:07:49] necessarily enough to compensate from the inherent tail risk that you see um positions. And then, you know, these undefined risk ones as well. >> Yeah. Right. So, let's go to the next one. So, this is just I pulled this, you
[02:08:04] know, like this morning. I'm just looking at 21 DTE buying power for spy strikeles comparing 50 delta, 40 delta, 30, 20, and 10. And what you see is 30, 20, and 10. And what you see is between 50 and 10 there's a 12%
[02:08:16] reduction in buying power. So it's not a very big reduction in buying power from going wider and wider and wider and wider. Um noting that these are 21d this volatility conditions are going to change what these values actually are.
[02:08:29] But buying power is really meant to be for an undefined risk position what the kind of estimate for worst case losses depending on a couple of factors. You into it. This is basically, you know, the broker's estimate for worst case
[02:08:42] loss for an undefined risk position when you don't really know what the risk is, you know, technically or the potential losses going into it. So, what you see you know, these 10 delta positions or these 20 delta positions have high
[02:08:55] probabilities of profit, um, one, they're capital intensive. They're, you know, comparably capital intensive looking at 21 DTE as a 40 or a 30 delta position. But if we're using BPR as a proxy for worst case loss, you're also
[02:09:08] subject to tail risk. As unlikely as that might be, even though you're profiting most of the time, right? >> Yeah. And just so the crowd knows, this >> Yes. >> Yep. Yeah. I think that's the the big
[02:09:22] hidden risk is the you have this high probability trade. Maybe you're levering up and doing multiple contracts, but your out of the money losses, especially the further out you go, you can realize a 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x loss and still be far
[02:09:36] into account. >> Yeah, that can totally happen. Um, and yeah, that's really the like that's a big part of the argument. But the hidden other piece of this as well that's specific to undefined risk positions
[02:09:50] we'll talk about on the next slide is that buying power is you know when you going to stay at those levels throughout the duration of the trade right BPR adjusts throughout time and you can actually right sometimes even though
[02:10:03] you're putting you know a trade on for some amount of buying power reduction throughout the trade. So looking at this Nvidia for example, uh we saw that the buying power actually increased by 65%. Just you know within a couple days of
[02:10:17] holding the trade um which again like brokers trying to adjust for the perceived you know maximum loss of the position. So not only is it the capital initially but also the capital to sustain the trade. That's kind of this
[02:10:30] other piece um that you know we don't always don't always talk about. understanding notional value really helps out because [snorts] your notional risk is where especially if you crank up that notional risk, like
[02:10:45] if you have a $100,000 account and you're trading uh you know a couple strangles in Nvidia or whatever it is, if you're like 5 6x notional that you're stuff. But if you're at like one and a half, two times notional exposure, you
[02:11:01] you have a lot less risk in terms of buying power expansion stopping you out winner a week later. >> Yeah. Yeah. Good call. Um watching obviously the stocks slid down, saw buying power increase, but then it
[02:11:15] of release in buying power. So the way that it moves around. >> Yeah. And just about Yeah. This is having that buffer capital, right? like this Nvidia position we were looking at it went up and then went right back down
[02:11:27] requirements just looking at this one example but um it's yeah having a little bit of buffer capital with an undefined risk position um just in case you do get those you know fluctuations the you know volatility um and then when we go to the
[02:11:40] the kind of like hidden risk of those high pop positions going up super wide is that those buying power you know uh fluctuations I guess you should say or that variability is actually a bit more
[02:11:52] volatile ile. So when we're looking at the cases when we were monitoring five delta, 16 and 50 delta, when we looked at the maximum recorded increase in buying power was actually highest with those five delta positions. Um which you
[02:12:06] You're collecting less credit in general. Uh that you know your Greeks out of the money. Um, so that's just kind of something other point to keep in mind which is that not only like you know is there this tail risk exposure
[02:12:20] even when you're going very far out of the money is that your buying power can be more sensitive um and potentially increase um you know relative to the amount that you're collecting more than those you know tighter positions or
[02:12:34] closer to out the money >> 100%. And this this says it all right here. uh if you're selling these far out of the money options, uh it can be a high probability trade, but you got to make sure that if you do get that 10%
[02:12:47] because otherwise you're going to be stopped out at an out of the money loss, which is no good, which is no good. That's no good. So, it's, you know, time those very far out of the money positions. But just being mindful of the
[02:13:02] risks that aren't immediately obvious because, you know, small credit, high pop, there there's those risks in there. It's just about being mindful of that about them [laughter] about them and when to use them. Oh boy,
[02:13:15] is it Friday. >> It is. It is actually Friday, which is great. >> Oh boy, am I excited. It's Friday. Um, we can get into some into some takeaways though. Um, but lower delta uh trades,
[02:13:30] attractive at first, high probability of profit. Um, but they do end up having lower credit. Even though you do have that tail risk tail risk exposure, as there when you're trading a strangle, even though you're profiting, you know,
[02:13:44] types of positions. So, it's really just about collecting enough to kind of also having enough capital to sustain the trade throughout the time um that noting that like those very far out of
[02:13:58] the money positions can actually have um larger buying power increases um just being mindful about having that buffer capital as well and then you know going very far out of the money just being mindful of that because those some
[02:14:11] of those you know risks uh some of those nuances aren't immediately obvious um just from the face value statistics >> 100%. >> Love it. >> Cool. I think that's all I got.
[02:14:24] >> Beautiful. Well, yeah, that is uh a super important segment and that applies to really any trade you're doing and you can see like even if you had a a five delta or 16 delta or 30 40 50 delta, like you still have to account for the
[02:14:37] buying power expansion that can happen and will happen if you get a big move against you, especially to the downside with volatility expanding, around that is just by throwing a wing on, throwing a wing or two. um you know
[02:14:51] what the max loss is uh on the trade even if it's very far outweighing and synthetic strangle or synthetic you know naked position effectively. Um that's one way to just kind of know in an undefined risk world uh what the worst
[02:15:05] case scenario is. >> Awesome. Love it. >> Do you trade any of these uh you trade any of these earnings announcements? >> I my New Year's resolution for the last two years has been to not trade
[02:15:18] earnings. Uh but I'll do occasionally something what I call like diluted earnings trades. So if you know AMD is coming up trading Nvidia or SMH um or exposure through like a correlated asset or through like a sector ETF. Um or even
[02:15:34] these days, yeah, like a market index. So I do my diluted earnings trades. >> You're so you're so safe. >> Why? [laughter] Why? >> I didn't I didn't say that way. I'm not Where's all this? What? What is safe? A
[02:15:49] [laughter] >> It's I don't know. It had some stink on it. >> What? You're so safe. >> Nobody could hurt you. These >> Okay. The New Year's resolution came up
[02:16:01] because I was not safe. So that's that's kind of I came from life lessons. >> I've been there. Remember when remember when Meta was Facebook and I sold a strangle and it went from 210 to 135 and I closed it and then went from 135 to
[02:16:14] 210 and I watched all the profits come back that I locked in for loss. I >> Yeah, I had one of my largest losses ever in my personal account in FB. Uh what we talked about on the bad trader tour. It was just like this just
[02:16:29] bullheaded trade just trying to get long puts in there in a near term. wasn't weeklys at the time, but it was near a term and it just it did not work out learn. >> Yeah. Sometimes you got to learn lessons
[02:16:41] because of the very well-earned [laughter] lessons that you learn. word. >> I would say I understand what's >> The one thing about us is we we bear the scars of the markets, but we've learned
[02:16:56] from them uh for the most part. So you're you're getting uh you're getting >> God, >> man, you are so safe. >> Okay. You know, >> I just don't know what you Friday. I'm
[02:17:09] going to go drink my coffee and think about unsafe things potentially. Like >> Oh, see that's a bad word. Unsafe. That is a How could you say that? I can't go drink my coffee. I got to think of something to do. I got to spice it up. I
[02:17:22] don't know. I'm I'm I got my diluted earnings trades, which are safe, some bourbon in that coffee. That'll be a little unsafe. >> Yeah. >> It's almost August. Summer's like kind
[02:17:35] bourbon in the coffee." >> There you go. Feels right. awesome. >> Appreciate it. >> Peace. >> Uh E- Minis down three. NASDAQ up 40.
[02:17:49] Crazy day today. Uh we just need this little Amazon thing to just go down. I don't know what what the deal is. >> It's strong, bro. It's not it's not own thing today. Kind of like Microsoft yesterday
[02:18:01] >> indeed. Um but yeah, join us on the YouTube chat. We've got about about 10ish minutes after this break. We can rip through some questions, trade ideas be back in a couple minutes. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[02:20:17] got Choppy Market here and we're looking at Amazon. I'm trying to make this adjustment here. I'm I'm noodling on this. I mean, >> what you thinking? >> We've got the uh 240 255 270 call crab
[02:20:32] crab trades is you can get blown out to the upside and take losses which is what the upside and take losses which is what we're seeing today. Uh but I can still buy back the 255 270 components for today that are basically chopping around
[02:20:46] today that are basically chopping around for zero exttrinsic and uh I can move it to August since my long option is in September and I can keep the same strikes the 255 shorts pick up some value there and then I could keep the
[02:20:59] same exact trade on and just roll it to the 255 270 extend the duration by uh 20 days here and pay a small debit Or I could take on some more risk to the >> flatten it out, >> move it. Yeah. Move that long option
[02:21:14] five points out of the money and collect a credit. So, what this would do is uh I would be taking on $500 more risk on this difference between 270 275, but I'd be picking up $180 in credit, let's call it, which means my additional $5 in risk
[02:21:30] is really $3.20. Uh, and if we get a downside move, I can make all that back. It would be a profitable trade. So, I think I might lean towards this, just taking on a little bit more risk, forcing a credit
[02:21:44] by by breaking this wing here and making it wider, taking on another $500 of credit spread risk, but giving myself the ability to uh extend the trade. And we'll be golden and we'll be able to close it for a winner.
[02:21:58] >> Feels right. >> Feel [clears throat] you makes sense. if >> that's the thing. >> I'll probably have to give up 5 cents. >> I'll probably have to give up 5 cents. >> There you go. 170. All right. So, now
[02:22:12] >> There you go. 170. All right. So, now I've got the 240, 255, 275. So, a little bit wider on the credit or the credit spread side of the call spread, but picked up a $1.70. So, I reduced my basis from $9 and change down to $7.45.
[02:22:27] And uh again, if we get a sell off in Amazon, we will be golden and we'll be >> There you go. >> So, there's the adjustment. E- Min's catching a bit here. NASDAQ up 100. E- mini's up seven.
[02:22:42] >> Let's defer to the YouTube chat, shall we? Uh but let's review real quick before we do. Let's review these trades of today because we've we've done a lot. lot better than me than putting in explanations. I haven't. [laughter] So,
[02:22:57] I mean, I try try and do it quickly, but uh it's not it's not always as easy. But real quick, I just did two SPX Super Bowl. The downside put spread was 10 points wide. The upside, sorry, this is an iron condor. Downside put spread is
[02:23:11] 10 points wide. Upside call spread, credit spread is five points wide. So, I wanted to take a little bit more risk on the downside because I knew I had my S&P butterfly that completely eliminated all risk to the downside as long as I had
[02:23:23] it. and I closed that butterfly for a $1,400 winner. So, I have no risk to the downside if you think of think about it holistically. Uh, but in isolation, yes, I have I have $1,000 of risk to the downside here in S&P, but I like the
[02:23:36] strike point. And I think if we just chop around here and just open flat Monday, this would be a nice trade. Uh, and then NDX closed that butterfly uh right when it was literally at 28,000 27997.
[02:23:50] going to be your max profit zone or close to it. So just booked that winner, 4,100 bucks, and that's the biggest hedge winner I've I've ever had, I >> Yeah. >> This account at least.
[02:24:04] today? >> I um I Let's see where did we start? Um I uh Marll. So Marll on the 28th I sold
[02:24:16] um if you remember, we came in that day. We had big move to the downside. I sold a put in there early on the open. Um similar deal in GLW. Both of these. So similar type trades and um again I think I did Marll because there was no
[02:24:29] further out. I think I can't remember exactly why it shows August. Things are moving fast and furious here but um yes that was the deal. So GLW might have had the day where I closed out those short call spreads. And um as it went further,
[02:24:45] sold a put in there. And then Marll, same deal. Uh these stocks were down big it does have earnings in September and I didn't really want to go there yet. And you know what? I'm going to buy some call spreads in these. Just looking at
[02:24:59] where the names had been and the kind of pops I could potentially have. And sure enough, we have this morning. Big move. Closed the whole package. Nice win on those. um SPX. This was a um a a uh what am I
[02:25:17] looking for? Um blank. Jeez. Uh the Super Bowl Super Bowl that I put on on Fed Day. Um that again with the big move for a nice win. So uh certainly did not expect a big bounce back today, but I I
[02:25:31] figured maybe come August we will actually see bullishness. But with this got to take it off. I still have another one as well, a little further upside on the call spread. Um, Apple, this was one of our trades of the day from a couple
[02:25:44] of days ago and took this off for a nice win. Bought this for I can't remember got $600. So, I might have bought this for eight and change. Yeah, I think is is sounds about right. I think I made 600 bucks on this. Reddit uh with the
[02:26:00] Sold this this put spread here. um little on the aggressive side, but stock is aggressively selling off, so I figured I'd get aggressive here. And coin moving down big on earnings today. Seemed like a Super Bowl was in order.
[02:26:14] go out to August with some of these things now because again, June, September, excuse me, is going to be uh closing in on that that 45day window, which is going to be the great selling opportunity. So,
[02:26:27] the way I look at this is like right now [snorts] I think I have a lot of long September, some still some short August options um with a lot of different calendars or diagonals if you will. Um whether it's in tech names or whether
[02:26:40] names. I got quite a bit of that. So, I'm starting to push some things out to August uh to to Septe excuse me, October now because I'm trying to manage the book in that way, right? Like what what
[02:26:52] is hard is when you get to a point where you get like August, say for example, at a 21-day expiration and you got to go through and look at what's going on and don't want to have every single position that's in that month. So at some point
[02:27:05] you want to start to place other positions a little bit further out and manage those or worry those as much or when you have a day like today the the world isn't caving in on you because you got so much zero day one day two day you
[02:27:18] know 5day stuff to manage some stuff is further out and it's not as as crucial. further out and it's not as as crucial. >> Yeah for sure. U I just joined you in that Coinbase Super Bowl different strikes. Uh, I just went with the 120
[02:27:32] 110. So, just like slightly different. Uh, and then 190 210 upside collected 50 cents. And again, these are just we're buying the call spread, but we're put spread that's slightly more valuable than the call spread we buy to be exact.
[02:27:48] spread we buy. So, I collected 50 cents in the middle here, but asymmetry to the upside. Uh, you know, big max profit if we get that move higher. But theo shows
[02:28:00] you with a nice like range. If you get a reversal of today's move, you'll get uh about three 350 bucks out of this trade. Uh because you can sell out of the call spread for more than the puts ready to buy back. So that's how these work.
[02:28:12] they've been really they've been really nice trades. Like I'll I'll do this into perpetuity now cuz I just think it's just one of those things where like instead of selling the put spread for like what is this? instead of selling
[02:28:25] the put spread for two bucks, which is still a nice credit, don't get me wrong, but uh the max profit if we do get a big rally to the upside, you're not you're upside because you can only make your credit received. Uh so I think
[02:28:38] especially for defined risk trades, I really like the Super Bowl setup. Undefined risk trades, I think there's a lot more reasons to just sell the put or just do a strangle or whatever because you have unlimited flexibility with your
[02:28:50] strike movement. But defined wrist trades, you don't. So, I like the asymmetry to the upside by giving up some of that credit and uh changing your max profit to the long call spread to the upside. And again, if you get a 20
[02:29:04] point rally in Coinbase, this 260 goes down to like 160, maybe make a 100 credit and transferring your max profit potential to the call side, you can multiply your your profit potential pretty easily here. Um,
[02:29:18] That's a great play about it, too. you don't necessarily have to worry about all expansion or contraction to some degree. And and if you go to the chart, fascinating. Again, this this stock is is down big, but if you um if you just
[02:29:33] look at that uh like five go to 529, I think there's that kind of spike there. You you're kind of looking for it to uh uh May 29th. May 29th. get back above that zone, right? Like that's really what it is. this damage
[02:29:47] can get back above that zone, you can really see some some interesting uh a couple months here and we'll see what >> Craziness. Well, Jamal, it was a fun morning as always.
[02:30:00] >> Yeah, indeed. >> Have a good uh trade of the day in just a little bit. We've got >> Yeah, for uh for an hour long, we'll have 15-minute segments starting at 11:30 and uh we really do deep dives
[02:30:12] into those trades. So, check that out. But we're going to pass it along to uh second. But if you want to reach out to us on Twitter, I'm at trader Mikey B. Jamal at Jamal Chandler. Keep those questions, trades, ideas flowing in the
[02:30:25] YouTube chat. Uh we'll get to them as we go along the day. But what a day. What a break and Chris and Elizabeth back on the other side of it. You're watching the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[02:33:09] >> We're back. You're watching Tasty Live. This is Confirm and Send. I'm Chris you today? >> Friday. I am in um I'm happy as a clam. We're off for a We're off for a weekend. Market is moving, bouncing. Mike Butler
[02:33:25] was giddy in between uh in between the shows, so all's good. How about you? >> You know, I I didn't have that NDX butterfly on, but I I love seeing my him. >> You know what though? I always said this
[02:33:38] this trading isn't a zero- sum game. You can make money >> and we like that's what's great about it is you can support each other directly next to your competition. It's not like that here.
[02:33:50] >> No. And uh what we're trading is a deep enough and liquid enough market where there can be multiple winners. So kudos to Mike. Excellent trade. Long-term >> You know what's so funny is that uh Jamal has the same one on and he's
[02:34:02] >> Oh, Jamal's a cowboy. >> We'll see what today. [laughter] >> We will see what today brings. Today has already been a a day of sorts, right? We come into this market. I checked in this morning. The NASDAQ was up around 1.1%.
[02:34:15] Still up around half a percent here. We've taken a little bit of a turn to the downside and then a slinky back up. Uh 7476 right now on ES. We had a high for the session of 7517. We have a low here just a few minutes ago of 7427, but
[02:34:32] the slinky continues. Liz, uh obviously everyone is focused on what's going on because they've continued their epic runs. Uh Amazon now on its best pace day
[02:34:44] runs. Uh Amazon now on its best pace day since 2012. Haven't seen a 15% gain in Amazon in quite some time. Not bad news for me. Super Bowl and Amazon's working was the past few sessions. I'll say that. Um,
[02:34:56] take it off? >> I did not take it off because I am perhaps revenge trading here, but that's a different problem for me. Uh, the 230 235 short put spread long the 285 290. It's still at 21 days to expiration. So,
[02:35:09] know, flip it for a little bit of a profit. The short put spread and the long call spread side. um both would give me a little little bit of pocket change here, but I think this still has room to run in the short term and I you
[02:35:22] >> A quick question looking at that to make their own decisions. If you go back to the page, am I correct? Am I spread back for 10 cents? >> I can buy that put spread back for 15
[02:35:36] down to 10. >> Okay. So that's something that I would days left. take all the risk off the table, right? So, I'm assuming you collected a credit for it. So, you would have that call spread on four credit and
[02:35:50] you got zero risk. And it's pretty far away right now, but it can happen. Anything can happen. So, a lot of times if I have a spread, especially a $10 wide spread, is that five or 10 cents? I'm taking the risk off the table.
[02:36:03] >> I'm gonna keep it a little bit longer. Amazon seems to have some juju. Good >> No, that this will not affect your price at this profits at all. Right. >> it's just taking 10 cents away from your profits.
[02:36:16] >> Okay, fine. that I'm going to talk about later today. >> Fine. Okay. I get Now I'm picking up what you're putting out. [laughter]
[02:36:29] >> We still have like four five hours to go. Uh, and I'll be on for like I think to spread it all out. I got to spread the love out here a little bit. [laughter] >> Microsoft here it's still up by 04%.
[02:36:43] now that we've had these big earnings, we had uh what I call the mama group, we had uh what I call the mama group, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple. Um >> yeah, if we can call it like Fang or Mag 7, like why can't we just call it
[02:36:56] something else? So uh >> Chris Beckio term. I like how come no one said that before during this earnings week every year. It's mama week every year. >> I'm running I'm running with it and I'll
[02:37:08] >> There we go. So, I mean, how do you approach? So, we've had these big moves, right, in two of the larger uh mega cap tech names here. We've seen a V right? So, this is not like a big move with volatility sticking around
[02:37:21] suggesting the market's going through like a material like major repricing of its previous expectations. Um, how do you approach this now? Because you got V crush. >> I let me turn this off. Turn off the
[02:37:33] phone. Um, how what am I doing in these? I was in I traded I avoided Meta, thank God, but I was in Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. So, Apple didn't wasn't playing according to what my directional assumption was. But I closed both Apple
[02:37:49] and Amazon together as a pair because I made more money in Amazon than I lost in >> Right. And you've mentioned that before. Sometimes you don't view the earnings uh idiosyncratically. You view them as like a basket of trades. And so, like it's
[02:38:02] and whatever comes out of them, you wins, then that's what matters most. The goal is to make money. So, if two of five hit by your positive dollars, that's a good day.
[02:38:14] wasn't like it was a great day. I made I mean, Amazon knocked it out of the water, but I made I I I lost in Apple. right? So, I could have made a couple thousand if everything had gone in the
[02:38:26] positive. I just don't want people to think that I'm like, oh, talking out of both sides like I had a great day. I You know what I mean? I didn't lose with >> Liz, any day in which I do not lose money is a good day in the market.
[02:38:40] >> Right. Trying to protect the capital and just keep growing the pile. Um, all minutes in here. I think it's a good time to go over to confirm and send. Liz, what do you say? >> Let's do it. I'm Chris as my favorite
[02:38:53] like this. What do you want me to call you? Futures expert. Macro futures expert. >> Futures. Just No, leave macro to Ilia. >> Okay. our resident futures expert. I'm going to read you I believe part three
[02:39:05] because you um and I also if we have time I'd like to get pick your brain >> At the end of the show. Okay. So, I'm just gonna put a pin in that. But let's go to question number one please. Amazon ripped 14% and Apple dropped 8%. The the
[02:39:19] fourth mag 7 split in a week after Microsoft up and Meta down. When these directions, is there an actual pairs trade in that or is it just proof that the AI is now name by name?
[02:39:32] Um I don't know if there's a pairs trade in any of these. I mean what did uh what did the situational awareness fund in? They were short software and long AI. And so when that pair trade reverted hard in June and July, what happened to
[02:39:46] the fund? It blew up, right? So I wouldn't suggest doing this on a pair conversation right now, you can just it's in the earnings this week. the companies that are monetizing their spending and turning it into results for
[02:39:59] rewarded. And the companies that are still trying to figure it out, they're still trying to figure it out, they're not. Um, Microsoft has Azur, Amazon has AWS. The cloud providers are doing well. It's kind of like the split between like
[02:40:12] providers right now in the energy sector. So, cloud providers, hardware doing a little bit better, at least on the bottom line. Meta, Apple, no. And other ones, too, right? theirs is a supply problem that the cost of the
[02:40:27] going to have to pass it on to consumers. They're worried it's going to uh lead to a decline in volume and sales. Um so fundamentally different these as pair trades. But I think the metric right now we're looking at
[02:40:39] through the market this week is are you spending a lot on AI? And if so, are you dollars and cents? And that's the deciding line for me. simple, I would go name by name. I kind of agree with that. It's not these
[02:40:54] And I like that that Becky brought up the the account that imploded with with the pairs trades that were in there. It does implode. And if it's not a true pair, meaning you're going to get some true pair, meaning the ZN ZB, which I
[02:41:07] right now, at least they have a a high correlation, right? Or if you're going to look at gold and silver have a high correlation. These might be correlated, but they're different products. So a Paris trade, you could lose on both,
[02:41:19] Paris Trades, it's like Ford and GM. >> Yeah. something that's a little less perfect, a little less. It's indirect. It's not maybe this week is a good example of that. But so, yeah, I just generally
[02:41:35] though, Liz, what do we say around here? We treat be ticker agnostic. Treat the math is going to pay you, what the market's going to pay you for taking >> I like it. Ticker agnostic. >> Ticker agnostic. Okay, we move on to
[02:41:48] question number two. Number two, let's go to the second one. When stock gaps up 14% like Amazon, is the IV gone by the next morning? Is selling into that post selling cheap volatility on a name that proves how far?
[02:42:04] >> Uh Amazon volatility really did take a cliff dive here, Liz. Uh 58 IVR down to >> right? >> I mean, let's go just what are we what are we getting paid for out here? Um let's go to 49. Let's try to stick to a
[02:42:18] typical tasty cycle right now. Just to the bottom of the expected move it looks like it tanked, right? Oh, you've got an IVR of 25 on yours.
[02:42:31] >> Yeah, I do have an IVR of 25, but it's a 33 raw volatility in the 49day cycle because like I did have a little bit of an internet issue, so I think I have stale stale numbers. So I'll just because I'm sure yours is accurate. So
[02:42:45] vault collapse. Oh, >> it's a very big vault collapse. So if if we're going to sell premium here, we're you know, one of the questions I always crashes is is now the market pricing volatility too low low for the new
[02:42:58] regime or is this the new regime here? Um either way though, I don't think that out to 49 days, if you wanted to sell more volatility, are you getting compensated for it? And the answer is right now, yes. $5 wide strikes at the
[02:43:11] expected move wrapped around it. What do you see? $181 in credit. That's north of >> Yeah. >> So, it fits the criteria either way. >> It does. It does. It's not um It's not the end all be all. But this is this
[02:43:25] this stock is operating exactly as we would expect a stock to operate. Even if you get a gap, this is a traditional traditionally what happens, right? So, it's in gold or silver, you're looking at Amazon, that ball will get ducked
[02:43:38] right? We got the down move. So, the ball got to keep its wings up. So, it's downside because you have that additional premium. I like an an a new Amazon when you were looking at that. Um, because but I wouldn't avoid it
[02:43:54] regime, but that's exactly what you expect volatility to see and you're sense or not. So, I liked what you did the mechanics. That's the important thing. Don't you can have your opinions
[02:44:07] going really well and you look at your charts and it's bottom left to top right but still stick with the mechanics within expressing that view. Doesn't >> We can go to question number three. We're we're we're just scooching through
[02:44:22] >> I'm trying to get to the end, so [laughter] I'm just >> So, when I close this trade at 50% profit, sometimes I get there in three days and sometimes it takes a month. My gut says these are different situations,
[02:44:35] fast I get the profit change whether you take it? I'm going to answer no. take it? I'm going to answer no. No, 50% is 50% is 50%.
[02:44:47] >> 50% is 50% is 50%. Okay. I would I don't know. I would argue speed's different, right? Um, and also relates to your expiration cycle. So, if I'm in like a a 50 days to, you know, if I'm in something shortdated like a zero
[02:45:02] DT or we'll say they said 3 days to expiration. If it's like a weekly, we'll say I'm 7 days out and all a sudden it's 3 days and I'm at 50%. Yes, I'm getting there. If I'm in something that's a little bit longer term, right? Let's say
[02:45:15] often last year where I'd buy something that was just a little bit out of the money like 2530 delta calls and gold would pop then within the next day or is still out of the money is worth 50%. >> Wait, hold on hold on. We got to rewind
[02:45:30] two different things. If you're talking about buying something is buying something not 50% closeund 100% of the time that is not that's what I'm trying to separate. So if you're buying something right you
[02:45:42] selling some selling premium correct but if you're selling premium >> 50 is 50 >> 50 is 50 is 50 right so it's not I just perspective there and that's just the only reason why I wanted to mention that
[02:45:54] >> yes so I agree with you and and and I apologize because I always assume we're putting something on take it off at 50 I don't care how fast you get there it is you're buying something because those are not high probability trades you're
[02:46:08] actually in fact putting on a low probability trade. So you want you can hold on. It's a personal decision how much profit you want to take. If I'm going up and I have a stronger assumption than it is when I sell
[02:46:21] up, I might want to hold it for a long time. I might be looking at 10fold, four-fold, threefold. It's a different animal than selling premium. about selling premium and if but it says
[02:46:34] 50% profit can happen in the you know there wasn't anything about selling >> No that's what I'm saying but I wanted to I agree with what you're saying where if you're I mean if you're selling premium it's 50%. If you are not selling
[02:46:47] choice. You can let it run if you want to. time component of this because if it's like oh I still have 90 days to direction. and I'm going to be able to get 100% profit out of this. You know,
[02:47:01] uh if if I'm in a 90-day trade and it takes me like 87 days to get to the 50% >> Yeah. >> To try to get any more out of it because clearly the idea didn't work out as well as I thought it might have. It took too
[02:47:13] >> So, yeah, being agnostic about the selling premium component of the question, it's really about uh yeah, if you're selling premium, 50% is the rule. >> So, and let me ask you this only because this was an age-old question that I've
[02:47:26] answered. If I've answered it once 17,000 times, okay? Because we're options traders. If you use options and set up a stock replacement, what's your profit target? >> It's a stock replacement. So, you
[02:47:38] >> It's a stock replacement. So, you actually have the exact same metrics as example. What would be your profit target? long stock, I really don't have profit targets.
[02:47:51] >> Yes. Thank you so much because I kept saying profit target for me could be profit target different for somebody else. If I'm long Amazon say maybe I keep keep going with the rip but somebody else might be look at Amazon.
[02:48:03] I'm not but somebody else might look at it and say I'm out. I made great profit today. I'm going to walk away. Long stock has no profit target. It's a personal personal out. >> Yeah that's I've seen some people
[02:48:16] it this way I've got to get my 5% or 10%. It's like, no, if you're just doing stock position, you're not looking for the high convexity move ultimately, you can't control that many shares. And so, like, you're looking for the thing
[02:48:30] to go up. How far up? Who knows? Who are we to say how far up is? But you're gotten it so many times because we use options to create stock positions. They like, "What's your profit target?" I was like, "What's your profit target?"
[02:48:44] >> As much money as possible [laughter] to the moon, man. This one is decidedly for you. Question number four here. Um, a jade lizard the credit covers the call spread. Where
[02:48:58] when does the setup make more sense than just selling a strangle? the downside in a strangle. A jade lizard has one naked option and it is a naked put. It is a naked short put. So, if you understand selling a put, selling
[02:49:14] your risk is. you would be if the stock drops you would come in long 100 shares of stock or understand that you can set roll that put. So it truly is selling a put with an inflated volatility. Think about it from that perspective. So say
[02:49:29] you're selling the 100 put and you can get $2 for it and then you're adding on you're getting $4 for it. Then you're adding on a call spread for a dollar. It's as if you were essentially selling that put with an inflated volatility if
[02:49:42] cover that. So, when does it make more sense than just selling a strangle? >> I think in products it I like it better than selling a strangle. 95% of the time. But when you think about it, in
[02:49:56] products that have already been beaten down, that are already at the bottom of their range. I've been hurt on a rubber band back up, right? I have been. It's been It's happened to me time and time again. Some of my major losses were
[02:50:09] coming from rubber banding up products that I had sold strangles in because you can't defend to the upside when the volatility gets sucked out. It's very challenging to right um where when something goes down the ball pops you
[02:50:22] can sell premium against it or roll and take additional credits. So I think it it that it makes sense when you get yourself far enough away where you you have a little bit of room so it can run up a little bit. And I think that setup
[02:50:36] makes a lot more sense than a strangle on a product that has been down because lose any money, >> right? Because a strangle, you're selling both tails. The jade lizard is um you know, effectively saying, "I
[02:50:48] short the upside tail, but they're still rich enough put skew in this market that >> So, yeah. >> And the person like literally we created the jade lizard and I know you can put it in the platform where you say jade
[02:51:02] lizard and and it puts it in for you. A true jade lizard, a true jade lizard is a third of the width of the strikes on the So like just I'm just gonna put in dollar wide terms. A true jade lizard would be 30 cents on a call spread and.7
[02:51:14] cents on a foot, right? So then you can extrapolate that out for a $5 wide or a $10 wide or $20 wide, however you want to set it up, but you truly want to get as far away as you can and get 30 cents on a call spread or the equivalent,
[02:51:27] whatever if you're in a larger product and.7 cents on a foot. So the they had run study after study after study about that where that that truly will get your distance as far away as you want or far away as you can if it's a true jade
[02:51:41] away as you can if it's a true jade lizard. So 70 cents on a foot or 70% and lizard. So 70 cents on a foot or 70% and 30% and that's how it should be set up. So I know jade lizard gets thrown around because they say it's a jade lizard if
[02:51:53] you've covered your call spread. But >> you could throw a call spread you could and then sell a put down there. That's a bearish trade. That's not neutral bull. That's a bearish trade, right? Because you need it to be down in order to go in
[02:52:05] there. So, by by sense of the word, the jade lizard was created to be a third of the width on the call spread and 70% of the call spread to the downside as far >> One of the things I appreciate that you've always emphasized because when
[02:52:18] people stumble along, this is a little bit more of a complex option strategy, right? It's not just simply selling a put vertical. um uh people think that they've like somehow discovered, you know, free money or risk-free trade in
[02:52:30] case here. You're short a naked put spread on one side of it. So, there's one direction >> and the market uh just uh what what is the Latin phrase? No pratium gratuitum. There's no free lunch. The market
[02:52:43] doesn't give you free moneym >> you are taking risk. It just the jade lizard takes advantage of all. It takes advantage of people knowing that you're going to be neutral to bullish. It takes advantage of beta theta and time decay.
[02:52:56] I'm not saying that I think take looking at Apple. If I I would do some I would do a J lizard in a product like Apple right now on a day like today because if You can take advantage of that volatil the the ball skew. But this would
[02:53:09] probably be more of a $5 wide, right? So if you did you just put this in? I did I did a long jade lizard. Here we >> Okay. Yes. So you see how it sets this up? I'm not a fan. So, what you're
[02:53:22] trying to do if you delete the delete the put for one second if you don't mind the put for one second if you don't mind and do a $2 do you have $5 wide. You got keep bringing it down until you get a third $167.
[02:53:35] >> Yeah, that was fine. You can you go to you can go 310 315. So, you now you know you can go 310 315. So, you now you know you got to get about 350 for a put which is going to bring you to 290. Am I looking at that right? 290 295
[02:53:48] looking at that right? 290 295 >> 3 Yeah, 305. If 295s are trading at 460, >> this is how it should be set up. You want to get yourself away. So in a true that's okay if you have a little bit of risk to the top side means you're
[02:54:00] it's strangleesque from that perspective, right? It's strangle-esque from that perspective, but you don't have you're eliminating your your gap up risk back to the upside. So that's usually the setup. I have a hard time
[02:54:14] putting a jade lizard on when something is at the top top of its range. If it's come back a little bit is when I love a jade lizard over a strangle because I mean here if I lost 30 cents is this is a good setup.
[02:54:26] lizard would have done in the name like SanDisk back in like June through now. >> Yes. [laughter] But so would a strangle and so would a short push. >> So that's what I'm saying. So you can't you can't you can't say the jade lizard
[02:54:40] would have performed well. It would have performed identically. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, even the, you know, even the short call spread side here, that doesn't hurt. I mean, it has helping by rather being under, you know,
[02:54:52] where in the cycle, I mean, when I think of something like this, I think of top left to bottom right in my chart, right? Where is the market come in a little we're going to find a little bit of a bottom and start to move to the upside
[02:55:06] the upside is capped. >> The upside is capped. Correct. or or but but this is also a slow grind up too because know that if it slow grinds up for the next 21 days and say it say it ends its you know you moving up to 310
[02:55:21] because you will make more on your short put than you're losing on your short call in a slow grind up >> sorry Frank adding some Latin to the conversation which we can discuss great I love Frank the great he's the best
[02:55:35] >> Liz we only have three minutes left here let's just take a quick jaunt around these markets you said something elsewhere about the dollar today in particular our friend here Mr. Japanese yen. What were you inquiring about?
[02:55:48] >> So I just tell me exactly what happened why why the move yesterday and why are we getting the move today? >> So a few weeks ago we had a rates check from the US Treasury when uh the Bank of
[02:56:01] other foreign central banks intervene in the currency markets. They usually like to do it with um with coordination with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. So federal reserve don't freak out like what's happening what's happening right
[02:56:14] federal reserve can help facilitate such efforts because we have our own reserves we manage other people's reserves yada yada so what what goes on the uh uh we had a rates check this morning in dollar yen which is basically the US treasury
[02:56:28] going out saying like hey if I wanted to sell some uh dollar yen up here at 163 banks hear this they go oh gosh why is the treasury going to come in and buy the yen they find it to be a precursor to
[02:56:41] intervention. So the wheels start to turn. We had that happen. Uh it appeared Finance intervention because it was confirmed by overseas newspapers. The Japanese newspapers were all over it. Uh today Reuters was reporting that we got
[02:56:55] sense. We just had a collapse in oil prices. We've had a retrenchment in Fed hike odds and the BOJ and Ministry of Finance like you let this thing go up going to lose control of the entire situation. The good news though, Liz,
[02:57:10] the yen speculative positioning is not where it was in the summer of 2024, unwind. >> Oh yeah. >> What happened? The NASDAQ down 15% from the July high to the August 5th low.
[02:57:23] That yen positioning is just not there right now because yen yields, Japanese trekking higher. So it has not been the carry trade vehicle of choice. That believe it or not, because they're telling the market they're going to
[02:57:36] too strong. they have no inflation and they're going to maintain their zero you're borrowing in something safer to do it in a well a Swiss Frank that's yen where all of a sudden your yen liability may be more expensive
[02:57:50] >> Oh so are you doing anything in the yen and if you do do you use do are you using this or do you use 6J? >> I use 6J because I like the I like the leverage. Uh I had on an intervention long because I thought that they were
[02:58:03] going to intervene earlier. So, my strike was 6566 on a call spread here. So, not exactly working out right now. Uh, it's actually flat. I could flip it to reset and give myself a little bit
[02:58:16] more time, but they seemly have to intervene around these levels from my >> And you're using 6J because that's where I would that's where I would land. So, >> Yeah. Long 6J. Okay. >> I'm longing and call spread in 6J.
[02:58:30] been a trade that I've been holding on ever since we touched 160. I've been putting this back on with like a 30 days to expiration. Just keeping it as a lot ticket costs around a hundred bucks to make like a thousand. If it hits once,
[02:58:44] >> All it takes is once. Like Johnny Dangerously once. Did you ever see that >> Just I have not. [laughter] I just watched Obsession this week with my wife after watching back rooms and I'm not a horror person and let me tell you if you
[02:58:57] >> I I don't like them at all. I do not like them saying I am. [laughter] send. As always, send your questions. Research at tasty.com. Research the best of our ability. Of course, we have more Tasty Live programming coming
[02:59:12] live trading. Uh, 12 Eastern, 11 Central at the top of the hour. Jim Biano from for a conversation on the show. Be sure to tune in live. We're taking a brief break here in Tasty Live. We'll see you on the other side for more live trading.
[02:59:26] on the other side for more live trading. >> Happy weekend. today's traders. [music] Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the
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[03:01:51] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. You are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to work out. That's
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[03:03:08] back to Risk and Reward. Today's Friday. Uh we got another volatile price action get into all that. Our positions, let us know what you're looking at. Let us know what you're trading. Brother Gus, how we doing today? How we feeling?
[03:03:21] >> Doing good. Yeah, hanging in. Um yeah, interesting action to to end the bit of draw down. I'm I'm well prepared for it. Uh but portfolio certainly did yesterday. >> Yeah. No, I know we're seeing a little
[03:03:35] bit of a pullback here. We haven't given up the entire upside move that we had seen yesterday where we rallied almost 1,200 points to the upside as the market opened up this morning. We had a little bit of a rally to the upside. Uh and
[03:03:49] aggressive selling kicking in to the downside. But before we get into things here today, guys, did you hear the uh the story about uh situational awareness believe is his name. Did you hear any of the headlines about that? I thought that
[03:04:02] was kind of crazy. I can get into the details of it or the weeds of it, but I >> Yeah. Yeah, I have I have seen a great deal about that. I I don't understand. I the situation. Like you said, I haven't read into it super deeply. Uh he I know
[03:04:17] he sold everything directly to Citadel in a single transaction, but then everyone was acting like Citadel fleece somehow or it's some kind of insider sold to Citadel was up huge yesterday. That's that's kind of where it all
[03:04:29] >> That's where Yeah. I mean, that's just where it all becomes gray to me because that was in that portfolio was up double digit percentages yesterday, like right after Citadel bought everything the prior day and so there was that was kind
[03:04:44] of the whole tinfoil hat thing going on. But I don't really understand the the full details of of that side of things. But yeah, it is it is pretty crazy. It's I with AI it's like anybody can LAR is anything, man. You you can just be
[03:04:58] whatever you want. >> Yeah. Um, that's that's definitely been with so many different companies like Allirds. I think that one threw you for out first. You're talking about this the shoe company is going to become an AI
[03:05:11] people touch on that at the same time. So, I don't know. This this entire AI some bad actors in there. I'm not saying he was a bad actor, but just just saying you get a lot of, you know, you get a lot of audacity and a lot of ambition in
[03:05:24] know, how people are just, you know, hype. And I think that's another story that kind of lands in that bucket a little bit there. But uh you know, I think he'll be I think he'll be he'll be
[03:05:37] able to grow something from from that. I know that
[03:06:08] uh it's it's the equivalent of of being an Apple engineer 20 years ago or whatever analogy you want to draw. But uh yeah, you can you can kind of just do job and and he certainly tried. Didn't work out. But yeah, very interesting
[03:06:21] situation to keep up with for sure. Lastly,
[03:06:39] What are you guys trading? I know we're seeing a little bit into this market seeing a little bit into this market right here. Some of the back uh in my little bit because that rally to the upside was so aggressive. I had just put
[03:06:52] on some short delta on in Micron after getting off the long delta. So, it's pullback. Uh, but we have a little bit in the portfolio today. We have the in the portfolio today. We have the micro
[03:08:14] out there, but we do have some volatility in TLT right now. sitting a little low. It's got me got me all off. I'm trying to figure shrunk overnight. What's wrong? I've been been messing with everything. Yeah, I got to
[03:09:21] lows. And it does look a little bit more attractive now. But I mean, I'll take attractive now. But I mean, I'll take the price point, the cost
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[03:12:04] back to Risk and Reward. Today's Thursday. Uh we got one more day of the month starting tomorrow. So, it's been a it's been a pretty exciting, I guess, a slower trading month starting the beginning of May. Uh, but things are
[03:12:18] volatile. But before we get into everything for the G
[03:12:30] today and everything everything's coming to fruition at once.
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[03:15:05] back to Risk and Reward. Today's Thursday. Uh we got one more day of the it's been a pretty exciting I guess a slower trading month starting the beginning of May. Uh but things are
[03:15:19] today? >> Doing good. Doing great. In fact, this >> everything I've been shouting from the rooftops about the last
[03:15:38] We're ready to hit the ground running right where we left off. Small technical difficulties on our end. Bonds. I'm looking at 28 DTE on TLT here. I already have an existing position on at 14 DTE. We needed over 85 by that time. That
[03:15:53] doesn't that that's pretty much feeling dead in the water right now. Um I I did recall before the Fed meeting I had five of these on. I took this position down decision at this time. Protecting myself from much stronger losses. Going to go
[03:16:07] ahead and leave that on. Currently sitting down around 80% and 80% being uh end of the world there in a cheap position like that. But I'm looking at this uh 28 DTE expiration cycle now. Expected move pretty much right at that
[03:16:20] centered around again centered around that again. Uh especially with this selloff that we're seeing right now. Um I'm thinking [clears throat] I don't know what can I get for like a 8384 maybe an 8384.
[03:16:34] Yeah, I'm going to do this. $28 of buying power for $72 a credit on an 8384 short put vertical at 28 DTE. So that's a perfectly 3:1 risk profile. Uh, I like we'll see the bonds snap back quick. Even given the the Fed uncertainty and
[03:16:49] the macroeconomic environment right now. Uh, bonds bonds this low. I'm just I'm just obligated to try to take a shot. So, uh, going to try I don't know, maybe ability to scale out again should should those opportunities present themselves.
[03:17:03] there there it is. Long long some bonds. >> Long some bonds. Jared said, "We trade in some James Bond. Now, you already know the deal." Uh especially after the FOMC out of is out of the way. Kind of sitting at its lows right now. James
[03:17:18] James Jared, I deny [laughter] James Bond. Uh but yeah, trading some got a fill, right? >> Did get a fill right away. Uh big answer your question in chat. September rate hike percent chance. Uh very very low.
[03:17:33] Uh well, currently we are pricing in a 90 90.5% chance of a 25 bps decrease in >> all right. >> Uh, yeah, still feeling feeling like rate increase chances have pretty much gone out the window. Uh, no change being
[03:17:49] priced in at about 2% less than 1% on on 25 plus or an increase of any sort, I >> I gotcha. >> Oh, silly me. I was looking at December 2025. Let me try again, guys. Let me try again. Horrible, horrible out of me
[03:18:05] >> Was that increase? Very likely. Throw everything I just said out the window. hike in September. As I was reading those numbers, I was like, "This can't those numbers, I was like, "This can't be right." Right. Uh 25 Yeah, there's a
[03:18:18] 56% chance of a rate hike in December or September right now. Uh 41% chance of no change, no chance of a decrease, more or less 2.3% chance of a decrease. Uh small tail risk of a 50 of a 50 point increase, but yeah, 25 point increase in
[03:18:32] rates in September is currently the favorite at 56% narrow narrow chance there. Uh certainly a a strong outside chance of no change. I'm all over the technical difficulties. >> We're with you. We're with you.
[03:18:44] We're we're pulling it together. >> Rate height, chair height. What is it >> Can you follow? Yes, I can. We actually do that for you right now. Can you talk >> Gotcha. Yeah. No, I mean a lot of volatility in these markets. I'm really
[03:18:56] excited about these memory names, right? I think even if we have quote unquote think these are going to have a lot of volatility. Um it seems like the trend has reversed now. So, I know we put on a long earlier this week in Micron, uh,
[03:19:10] downtrend, which was a little bit of a counter trend trade, which can be be all about not overstaying your welcome. So, that's kind of been our mindset here. And after getting out of Micron, you know, I think the game plan
[03:19:22] chains here, you could see yesterday we sold the out of the money call spread, $5 wide, collected about $1.78. Um, that one, but I think we're going to try to hold this one a little bit longer.
[03:19:34] You know, I'm glad that we were able to, you know, get a little bit of short delta on on a on the pop of the backside of the move while we're trending downwards. So, it'd be cool to see Micron make lower lows here. But, you
[03:19:47] on what the rest of these indices want to do will really will really determine, conviction off of these trades. But, it would be nice to see some lower lows, right? I'm not saying we want to see like 500 or 400 in Micron, but if we can
[03:20:02] going to look to manage that trade because right now that short micron other positions that we have in the portfolio. Um, outside of the out of the ranch, I seen you made the comment spot, this the spike call spread is finally
[03:20:18] that's nice. Didn't expect to have such a massive rally even into the even into market open this morning, but things quickly reversing here. Um, but yeah, going to be these memory names. I think it's SanDisk that has earnings right
[03:20:33] around the corner. I think it's either SanDisk or it's Intel. And I mean, you paying attention to for these next earnings? Like, what is going to be I capex spend. I know we've seen, you know, some names like Meta really take a
[03:20:46] hit um depending on how much they're spending. But I'm curious after we're these memory names, how earnings August 5th for SanDisk is going to play out and how how it's going to affect the rest of our positions. Right, Gus? Because if
[03:21:00] you're trading Micron, I think you want to know, you know, how SanDisk is going to perform for its earnings cuz that might give us some insight on how we Although it's SanDisk reporting earnings. So, it still feels like we're
[03:21:13] in that situation where the earnings for these other products directly affect um these micron names, a lot of volatility still in here. Um Gus, today really very interesting as a whole opened opened way up and we're only two
[03:21:28] two close to two and a half hours into the market and uh everything is just ripped back down. It's these I mean even even intraday these these companies are I really think I'm done trading the memory space alltogether myself. Um, but
[03:21:42] yeah, I mean, [sighs and gasps] I don't know. Like you said, I I I could see I plausible reality for these to continue talking in Micron terms. Like, am I surprised if Micron tests 500 again sometime? I don't really think that I
[03:21:55] a bunch of times, I'm I'm equally unsurprised if Micron goes to 1500 sometime here soon. It's just it's it's a it's a really hard thing to read. And take the giant run up we saw in metals at the end of last year, which again I
[03:22:09] always say it's hilarious that we often can compare, you know, metals to tech out of metals into the end of last year. But if you look at that runup, you know, was immediately like, we're not going to get back to those levels. There's
[03:22:23] there's no way. Everybody in their mom knows that those levels are too high. return to those levels. There might be some bounces that you could catch, but a one month after that sell off that there was all of a sudden some chance we
[03:22:37] never really plausibly thought that there was one. However, here in these story. Usually, when you see something take a parabolic run up like this, you there's no way that we could get back there. But, as I've said a bunch of
[03:22:51] times, the Ford PE ratios on these memory companies are not as bad as they that we've had here. I don't think that people are going to be too scared to to especially if some confidence can return to the AI trade. And the thing to me is
[03:23:06] penalized right now for spending and spending and spending on AI. You know, we we we've seen it happen to Meta, you know, kind of king of the castle in that AI spending, the restrictions they put on their free cash flow. Where are they
[03:23:19] to these memory companies. A lot of it is going to these memory companies. That that money all has to go somewhere. So, you know, when we talk about people people wanting to move off of the AI trade, people being concerned about the
[03:23:33] the excessive AI spending, these companies are not the ones doing the spending, they're the ones benefiting from it. They among the ones benefiting companies. So, I think there's a real chance we could see a return to those
[03:23:45] highs as equally as I see a real chance we could, you know, do do a 500 on >> Yeah. No, it's a really good point. I mean, I think the volatility to the see a little bit more in that. And I'm curious to see if what these earnings
[03:23:58] earnings are going to continue to move off of that capex spending. Like it is kind of interesting how the uh the attention kind of moves to a very earnings details and what comes out. Like before it was AI, now it's the
[03:24:12] see how that's going to move in in transition as time goes on to here. Uh says AMD is talking about some price increases. Okay. And it's been some time Nvidia. I feel like Gus, I feel like it's been Micron and the memory names
[03:24:27] really taking a lot of the intention out of out of a lot of these names, but AMD is still consolidating at its highs. I mean, we had that pretty aggressive run up here in April. Um, still sitting within that very defined range on AMD
[03:24:39] near the highs. Nvidia, very similar thing here. Looks a little bit haven't seen any type of significant pullbacks. They've kind of been flying under the radar, Gus. Well, it feels like at least. Yeah. Yeah, they have. I
[03:24:51] stagnation period. I mean, very similar actually to kind of what we're seeing in exaggerated on the runup, but you know, when you look at these AMD Nvidia charts over the last few months, I mean, look at this that that last, you know, if you
[03:25:04] go a beginning of April 2025 to the present, this might as well be the SPX chart. Again, the upside is a bit more exaggerated, but obviously these have been the the market making vehicles over the past couple of years. And so, very
[03:25:18] the same draw downs. We see the same V-shaped recoveries, and we see the same consolidation phase that we that we've been in in S&P and and NASDAQ for a trading with Iron Condors is basically the same thing we're seeing manifest in
[03:25:33] these, you know, Nvidia AMD charts right now. Um, Ace Ventura, the pet detective in chat asking, can I can I ask the reason you sell the TLT put credit in better leverage. Ace is is really the only answer. Um, I very very often will
[03:25:46] similar fashion if I'm expecting a recovery. Uh, doing the 8384 allows me to get that $28 of of buying power for $72 in credit because the probability of are all sliders. Uh, but I see a recovery to over 84 as as very realistic
[03:26:02] in the next 28 days. And so I'm willing to willing to take that risk even uh having to maybe go through some pain until we can get get through those strikes eventually. >> No, I like it. Um, memory and storage
[03:26:15] comps are creming in the cash, too. Good word, nice boy. I like your vernacular. Still curious who's buying these 6K GPUs. Not me, big deal. You can cross me off the list. I mean, these it's it's the companies that that spend a billion
[03:26:27] dollars like they're buying a McDouble. That's who's buying the 6K GPUs. Um, going to fix for years now. Yeah, I agree, Nice Boy. And and I think that, myself into getting long memory. I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it,
[03:26:41] these these memory companies, yeah, like you said, the supply shortage isn't going anywhere. And like I said, even in a world where these AI companies are all price in 25 years in the future, and they're not going to be able to get a
[03:26:55] tangible return to revenue for the next decade or, you know, return to uh profitability from these investments for the next decade. Even in that world, centers, and they're still going to buy it. you know, even if even if they know
[03:27:08] distant future and might hurt them a little bit in in in this current billion deep into the construction of a just say, "Oh, you know, this runs over. We'll just sink that three billion and
[03:27:20] to finish these things out. And so, yeah, the supply shortage, I think, spending is all too much. >> Yeah, 100%. And you know, we'll we'll get a really
[03:27:33] looking like, especially the next what, six months of the year. We're just today's the last day of July. So, we're headed into August. We got August, September, October, November, December. Uh, man, I think we're going to get a a
[03:27:45] industries are going to be at by the end of this year, especially with all the projections of a potential rate hike and those kind of things. So, Wars definitely has his work made out for him. Curious to see what he does. Uh but
[03:28:00] was selling off a little bit more here now. Volatility trading at about 1720 little bit lower than the high from again volatility is still very interesting of how it's been responding
[03:28:12] given the sell-offs we've seen in the market. Um it doesn't it it doesn't seem fear right now. It doesn't seem like the market is very fearful even given the down days we've seen this week. So we'll keep an eye on volatility. Um, and
[03:28:26] little bit more volatility to the downside. I know we were kind of keeping an eye on this range from here and here on the Q's. And I know we started to kind of create a little bit of a funnel here where we've seen a little bit more
[03:28:40] directionality to the downside now since we've traded outside of that zone there. But it's looking like we're recovering so far. But at the same time, curious to will hold. Um, and if we keep chugging to all-time highs, and you know, Gus,
[03:28:55] sometimes we forget that sometimes maybe it's going to be neutrality. Maybe the market doesn't want to necessarily have so much direction to it. Maybe we move sideways for a little bit. I don't know. But with that being said, keep an eye on
[03:29:07] the cues, keep an eye on some of these other positions. Um, as we go on here, list, see what else has been moving. I know Dell's another one I've been been trading at the top side of this range here, but it's a really difficult
[03:29:21] conflicts that I have is Trump was talking about Dell being a little bit bullish there. And I don't know if I want to go against the grain whenever based off of some of the volatility we've seen after he mentions a specific
[03:29:35] >> So Trump has just he's he's become I mean maybe he was before. I don't know good friends with Michael Dell uh over the past I don't know year or so. Ever since ever since the Dell family stroked a whatever six, seven, eight billion
[03:29:49] accounts, they they've been in close cahoots. So that's the other thing with with these Trump things. I'm the first person to say if Trump tells you it's You know, we we have found him to be pretty accurate in his in his
[03:30:03] predictions, shall we say, about the trajectory of the market and the trust the guy when he tells us to buy something, but you do have to think about why he's saying buy that thing. and and in this case and with how much
[03:30:15] do think that it has more to do with just his friendship with with Michael billions of dollars towards the Trump accounts and he's just trying to uh you know spin that around um and and and pay the man back basically with with with
[03:30:30] some increase in share price. So, uh this is kind of the one Trump company actually trust his judgment on. I think I think they might just be boys. >> They might just be boys. Huh. That's I actually didn't know they started to
[03:30:43] but but even after Trump had made that comment, I haven't really seen too much off to the sidelines for now. That's some interesting insight though. I that. >> E Media bringing it to my attention in
[03:30:57] chat. The Jersey Mike's just IPOed. I forgot about this. Uh JMK, we could we could have a look at that one. But uh yeah, they did did recently IPO trading trading up aggressively off off the IPO in in day two here. I forgot that this
[03:31:10] this. I'm a big Jersey Mike's fan. I would have been bullish here. Subway. >> I'm actually shocked Jersey Mike's part of some larger holdings group. They they there. And I think I mean private equity or venture capital or something bought
[03:31:24] guess they've kept it as a as a standalone, not rolling it up. Uh but yeah, nice uh nice nice couple of first couple of days out of Jersey Mike's SpaceX chart here. Maybe maybe watch
[03:31:36] decide to to flip around on on Jersey Mike or whenever options open. better count your days, Subway. Jersey Mike's just IPOed. We're getting a lot of volatility. We're trading at 22.86 a share now. SpaceX could be down at No,
[03:31:52] SpaceX is probably not getting down to $20 a share, but no. U we'll see what I know I I think I'd seen it mentioned one time yesterday and I meant to go recognize an IPO like Jersey Mike would get so much volatility. I mean, this
[03:32:06] a lot of maybe intraday traders, a lot of scalpers, a lot a lot of movement in both directions. A lot of volume for a Jersey Mike's, you know. I didn't know it would consume so much trading activity.
[03:32:19] Anytime there's an IPO, it's it's usually enough to to get people at least [clears throat] The uh I saw I saw Reddit mentioned in chat as well. Big around here. Got lots of tabs. Um, yeah, big deal. Reddit down 22%. Yes, Reddit
[03:32:35] down 22%. Despite posting great numbers, uh, just over mounting fears that that AI is going to run Reddit out of business, more or less. And I mean, you an interesting paradox I've been thinking about here. I don't think I've
[03:32:47] ever voiced this on the show before, but before anytime you wanted an answer on specific, something that wasn't quite googleable, you know, you're you're building a PC, you're you're you're fixing your car, you're having a very
[03:33:00] to turn for those things because you could go and see if a real person has real people have answered it that have experience. And if not, you could ask people with experience would would pop in and answer those questions for you.
[03:33:13] Reddit after a Google searches when you were looking for something specific like that. However, now everybody is taking those questions to AI. AI is often still using Reddit as a source. Uh Reddit isn't seeing ad revenue and AI does that
[03:33:27] obviously, but beyond that, AI is tapping Reddit as a source for a lot of stuff. But if everybody is taking their questions to AI now, suddenly there's questions on Reddit and move into an information drain where like 20 years
[03:33:41] from now, there's no answers anymore. And AI AI can't go to Reddit to get And I'm sure it still can, but that's sort of the death spiral for Reddit that people are afraid of right now. And it is a a scary prospect, I think.
[03:33:55] that. Uh I know Reddit was always one of those I was never a Redditor. Like I so very familiar with using Reddit and and kind of using it more so on like a things that you recognize that pops up as a Google search. And it's interesting
[03:34:09] that you pointed out that a little bit of the consumer behavior is changing. You pointed out that now a lot of people are going to AI to um handle a lot of their requests and a lot of that data is still being sourced from Reddit which
[03:34:21] revenue from that. But it is interesting to see that that behavior change, right? that with Google a little bit there now, too. And I thought Google would have been heavier or a little bit more impacted by this new change in behavior
[03:34:35] Google's doing really well for itself. But you would you would have thought Google would be like the first one to get hit pretty hard in terms of change things because they were like the OG search engine. So
[03:34:48] just talking about this yesterday and talking about Apple with Siri as well. These companies are mag seven companies on on the forefront of technology and Google's managed to catch themselves here it seems and and kind of bring
[03:35:02] things back. But there was a a period there I mean for like north of a year where I was like Google's going to die like there is no like not not the whole searches are going to die which are obviously a huge segment of their
[03:35:14] revenue now. Could you ever kill Google? I don't think so. YouTube giant Whimo other revenue streams coming in to prop them up. But Google was late to realize threat that that could pose to their search revenue and and properly pivot.
[03:35:29] Gemini still has such a tiny market share uh you know in the in the broader with with how late they were to to move on that. And yeah, same could be said about Apple with Siri who is still bad by the way. Uh they're I can't believe
[03:35:42] you don't even have to do anything innovative. Apple, I think they want to stroke their own ego and have their own LLM and do all this. Just just plug in care. Just give me a Siri that can actually answer things instead of just
[03:35:57] to do a Google search, I can go to Google and ask you things. I What's even >> Yeah. It doesn't seem like they've allocated much facilities to Siri because Siri feels the same like Siri felt in 2015.
[03:36:12] to Reddit. I know I'm kind of doing the Alex Jones cadence here, you guys, talking about my my grand conspiracies with what happens to Reddit with AI. I apologize, but here's a way. If if you're crazy, if you're if you're a
[03:36:25] only goal is to grow this company, keep it alive. I think Reddit could combat this back in a dystopian sort of way if they can somehow secretly or maybe they
[03:36:37] kind of cool name, but they need to get chat bots going in their forums asking new questions and answering each other. And then you could do something like provide an AI to Reddit users that allow them to AI search Reddit. And perhaps
[03:36:52] way with people who actually want Reddit answers could just go plop something right answers. But I really do think that that Reddit is who ultimately winds up falling victim to that sort of Yeah, I mean I I used the word death spiral a
[03:37:06] that that I think Google could have fallen victim to and have now managed to catch themselves where AI just functionally replaces everything that stream. >> 100%.
[03:37:19] Google recently made their search algo deliberately worse. So you saw the ads been a thing. I mean I feel like that's been a thing for years. Getting getting >> I almost feel like that's almost feels like a a little bit of a byproduct of I
[03:37:34] guys think. What is what is the right term? Is that a byproduct of capitalism? Because I've noticed the same thing with the expansion of AI. you will get the expansion of AI. you will get quality work go down for what can be
[03:37:47] to use and then also who can pay the most. So typically you're not going to get the best results when it works off of a system like that. So I don't really that's one of the first things that comes to mind whenever I see new
[03:38:01] great quality and then it kind of dampens a little bit as it goes. >> Um yeah I see uh [laughter] this this is sort of changing topics aggressively here but I just have to acknowledge it. uh upend the end in chat. Shake Shack
[03:38:14] still overvalued after the 60% dump he says. Uh I I agree. Let's pull up Shake Shack. SHK Shack uh is is the ticker here. Um yeah, this this company I think here. Um yeah, this this company I think so too. I think for real. I think in I I
[03:38:29] think Shake Shack dies sometime. I I think 20 30 years from now there is no more Shake Shack. I just don't see where they fit in the market. It just doesn't existed fine. They had a they had they had put a ceiling on their growth was
[03:38:43] the issue. $30 burger and fries, there's a strong ceiling on your growth and they needed needed to stay a novelty. Whoever is in these boardrooms telling them that expansion plan that they've been on, it's a bad plan. It's somebody that's
[03:38:56] never lived in suburban America, rural America, whatever it may be. There is nobody in suburban America that's that's choosing to take their family for $30 burgers and fries for every person when there are 101 literally different burger
[03:39:10] and fry options within a mile of that restaurant. I just don't see it as novelty. It was in these big cities. It was a tourist destination. It was something that people do one two times a year. Trying to build themselves into an
[03:39:22] those prices, I just don't see a way that it can work. So, I I agree with the for sure. >> No, I mean it's a really good point that into those upper price level ranges, you have you really have to start to
[03:39:35] consider. I could go to eat at Cheesecake Factory for the same price as Shake Shack, literally. So, [laughter] >> Oh, yeah. I mean, anything. Yeah. Sit sit down. I mean, yeah. Chili's. I mean, I could I I could I could go to Chili's,
[03:39:48] eat until I'm full, and get reasonably intoxicated for for $30. It's like, you just crazy. Yeah. Yeah. We We'll see where where where where they or if they even end up pivoting. Again, I I was a big fan of
[03:40:01] food, but for what they offer, I think some things are pretty questionable that they're having over the night. Uh from 95, that's a pretty big gap from 95 all the way down to about 69. >> Another gap down. [laughter]
[03:40:16] through through the gap down. >> Oh, yeah. That's tough. Wish I had some had some naked, >> but yeah, got got it home for me. But yeah, I I might I might throw on some Yeah. like long long-term puts in Shake
[03:40:29] continue coming through bad. I think you're going to spend too much money on money to to justify it on the other side. going to be anything else top of mind before you wrap for the day? I know
[03:40:41] market. We'll see what we end up getting. I know NASDAQ is consolidating mind before we wrap? >> Yeah, nothing crazy top of mind. Chili chat. I can't do I can't do spicy with my sweet. I've always always kind of
[03:40:56] been that way. Keep keep your taheen. Keep your chammoy. I don't really I much. But I I respect it. I see the appeal. Uh I guess the only other thing going anywhere. I'm not going anywhere. We're going to hop straight into trades
[03:41:10] first one. So amazing. With that being said, guys, thanks for taking the time amazing content coming up here in just a second. Be sure to stay tuned. We'll catch you guys here in a little bit. Peace.
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[03:43:46] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. You are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to [music] work out.
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[03:46:04] Trades of the Day. I I don't know how we usually open this thing. It's my first I'm enthused to be here. haven't even reward and I am going to talk about a trade idea that I've actually been
[03:46:17] voicing for some time now. But I really wanted to wanted to dive into the weeds of this. Uh this is still hovering right around my entry and everybody could still get in at the same price, but I just wanted to make my case for S&P
[03:46:29] specifically for nothing to happen in S&P. I have sold an iron condor there. I nicely displaying this. We can go ahead and throw that up now. Uh I've talked this trade in the follow feed. Uh but I am rocking a short iron condor on S&P. I
[03:46:46] am rocking a short iron condor on S&P. I have uh sold the 7,400 put and the 7600 call. Additionally, I have bought the 7605 call and bought the 7395 put just to define the risk on those wings there. Uh but we are looking for S&P. This is
[03:46:59] August 21st expiration cycle. We're looking for S&P to close in between looking for S&P to close in between 7,400 and 7600 come August 21st, 21 days you guys believe that? Um, as you can see, looking at the the well, we were
[03:47:12] things here, but I am slightly up on this position already. I have I have had this on for uh six or seven days now. Full disclosure. However, this price has pretty confident you can get a fill at pretty much the same price that I did.
[03:47:26] relative strength of this trade remains. There's still a 2 to1 risk profile on the on the table here, even at the current mid price. But my thesis, and we can we can jump back over to the tasty platform here. What is happening
[03:47:41] tasty platform here. What is happening right now feels identical to me as what we saw in October through March, basically late February, early March of let's let's take a look. Let's let's take a take a look to a a time long past
[03:47:56] liberation day 2025. We get this huge sell-off into Liberation Day, tariffs, uncertainty. You guys remember all of it. It was scary. It was This was like really the first I I started trading during COVID, so like I didn't really
[03:48:09] Just the volatility, just a little bit of profitability for me. This was like of profitability for me. This was like the first real largecale market crash in in my career as a trader. We got to sub 5K on S&P after testing uh you know, a
[03:48:23] little over 6,000 off off the highs. Uh more pointedly, what what did our high come in at here? 6147 was was the previous all-time high before we got previous all-time high before we got this sell-off. Then panic ensues. We go
[03:48:35] ripping down to the lows. We we break below 5K. This huge 20 plus% sell off in in a matter of weeks and the sky is falling. And then wham, we take everything off and we go flying back to the highs. V-shaped recovery up to the
[03:48:47] highs, right? These are all still similarities. Then early October, I guess late October more accurately. Well, yeah, early October, we begin to of referring to as as the holding pattern, the the range in question here,
[03:49:00] consolidation. And then, you know, coming out of all this bullish momentum, it feels like we're going to go up forever. It's euphoria. Then all of a suddenly, especially starting in late October through, yeah, the beginning of
[03:49:13] October through, yeah, the beginning of March of 2026, we had this 6-month period, 5 month period, where we just could not break$7,000. We tested it and tested it and tested it again, and we just could not get through. And this
[03:49:26] whole time, the market doesn't feel bearish. It feels there there's there's There's there's little things shaking bullish momentum has left the market at any point there. It feels like there's
[03:49:39] time, it was still just the AI trade felt like AI trade was still relevant and keeping us propped up. That leads us all the way water break leads us all the way to this year when once again exact to the month
[03:49:54] almost to the day exact same setup transpires. April comes. This time it's the conflict in Iran. Looks like we're going to get into a war with Iran. It's come all the way down. Not as aggressively this time, mind you, but we
[03:50:09] come all the way down to the mid6300 range and then wham once again exact same question. It's like in a day all the risk, all the fear leaves, VIX ripping again. V-shaped recovery in April. Sound familiar? Back up to these
[03:50:25] all-time highs. And now this is where we get into the actual core thesis of my trade. I think we're seeing the same thing here through this whole run. It's these memory companies. Oh my god, SanDisk is at 1,000. Oh my god, SanDisk
[03:50:38] is at 1500. Oh my god, SanDisk is at 2,000. We creep up and up and up. these tech companies, the heavier weighted stocks. And SPX, as I've talked equal weighted S&P 500, we're dealing with a very different situation than SPX
[03:50:53] in the midst of this. But obviously talking about S&P here. Then all of a sudden this top comes through. Uh this time the the level that we're dealing with is more like 7,600 than than 7,000. But this top comes through and we go
[03:51:06] bounce and we bounce and we bounce and there's all this uncertainty. And if you other, these consolidation phases look very similar coming out of the runup into the consolidation phase. So my line of logic here is that I think we're
[03:51:20] you think about the the broader environment, the news environment that we were in into the end of last year, it all feels very similar. There's a lot of things growing, there's some rotation into small caps, but at the same time,
[03:51:34] There's still uncertainty with the Iran situation. These AI companies are spending too much. There's a lot of there's free cash flow issues. So, we driven market that just never really goes anywhere. It is volatile. It feels
[03:51:49] actually happens. We just keep hitting this this ceiling, the same ceiling in this range that we're talking about, and I'm going to use broadstrokes terms here, is basically 7200 to 7600. So, I've decided to take the slightly
[03:52:05] [clears throat] higher end of of that range uh in throwing on the 7,400 7600 tendency to drift up and also we were right around the 7,400 range at the time now although well well into the middle of the 7400s currently at 7461.
[03:52:21] I threw this on because the whole time we were in that consolidation phase last going to go anywhere. I know we're not going to go anywhere. 7,000 I know we're we're not going to hit it this month and I never acted on it. And so this time I
[03:52:35] put my money where my mouth is and I have done so with this trade. 7,400 to range. 7,400 level. You can see highlighted on the chart here. We will need to stay above that which clearly slices this range in half. But I like
[03:52:49] that we've kind of consolidated towards the lower end of this range over over the past few days. You know, it's like uh there's it's like uh you know, we're spot. It's like a clementine. All right, that we got we got a peel going at 7,600
[03:53:03] 7200 and then we we want this this sweet spot right in the middle where we've was here, he would love to throw a volume profile on this chart. I guarantee you there is a lot of volume happening right in the middle here and
[03:53:16] that's right where I want to be. So, the thesis here, let's uh let me throw throw this trade up. Um [clears throat] here we go. Uh yeah, we're currently at 310 350 on that, but let's just let's just talk in in mid-pric terms here. Just
[03:53:31] whipsawing everywhere. This is kind of what I'm talking about and why I say I price, but let's say you get a a fill at $3. That seems to be what we're what we're fluctuating back and forth on here. You can get $3 in credit for $150
[03:53:45] in buying power. My public school math tells me that's a 2:1 risk profile. your probability of profit is obviously going to be less than 50% 28% in this case translates to the to the 2 to1 risk profile that we're talking about on this
[03:53:57] profile that we're talking about on this trade but at a well actually we just price is moving 200 to buying power for 300 credit still the same thing 1.5 to1 to take this trade where it is right now uh and in fact I might add more I think
[03:54:13] the time the time horizon closes enough that this is getting close to a perfectly 1:1 risk profile a perfectly 50% probability of profit. I might look be enough confirmation for me to want to to bite a little more off here. But
[03:54:26] because this time horizon is so long, because IV is so high right now, you're able to get very good credit given to you. The premiums are high here uh putting in. And I just don't think we eclipse 7600. We've we've tested it uh
[03:54:40] thrice, arguably four times now. None of the times we've been able to break through. and it just feels like 7K felt at the end of last year, at the end of last year to me. So, I'm more than content to jump in here with a neutral
[03:54:53] mindset. And this also with the rest of my portfolio having largely a long bias, If all of my other positions just continue to grind, can't really work the equation on a little bit of them, uh, this is the the hedge in the middle
[03:55:09] for that that neutral situation. So, I I I'm I'm very fond of of neutrality on that this is another six-month consolidation that we're talking about horizon I'm talking about last year, it kept just the question kept being surely
[03:55:25] S&P is going to break 77,000 this time, right? We we we were testing it again. we're going to go through 7,000 here. And we just never would. And it was trade directionally, which is what I was trying to do at the time. So, learning
[03:55:39] from those mistakes. gonna jump in on on the neutral position here and we're gonna we're going to hopefully just let theta let theta pay us. Obviously, this is situational to your portfolio. If you have uh really if your portfolio is
[03:55:52] directionally biased at all, neutral hedges are a good thing to to keep or a short bias, throwing some neutrality in there to kind of offset those things and and you know, save you the frustration should the market just
[03:56:05] continue to grind and not give you any directionality is very smart. So, I just decided that after harping about this specific trade on on to anyone who will listen quite frankly for the last week, it was high time to to designated as as
[03:56:18] a trade of the day and and get involved here. Just feels too too similar to to and I don't want to be caught on the sidelines this time. So, yeah. Uh that's that's that's pretty much the gist of the thesis here. I'm not I'm not missing
[03:56:33] consolidation coming. The environment feels the same. It's news-driven. there's a bearish headline the next. Feels like we're going to bounce and that when that bouncing is happening, the IVs continue to elevate. It
[03:56:46] continues to afford you this attractive premium. If you have the to step in to happen. And so that's that's what I'm doing here. I think I I I say often, you stocks moving up, getting short is contrarian. Oh, stocks moving down,
[03:57:01] getting long is contrarian. I think that in this volatility environment, in this news-driven market, the true contrarian move is saying I think nothing will happen. So, that's my stance on on this S&P trade. I I know that some people
[03:57:14] have have already followed me in, and I'm going to kick it over to Jamal day with you guys right after a short break. You're watching Tasty Live.
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[03:59:29] Tasty Live fam. What is happening? What a week. What an absolute crazy week building. We uh excuse me, it lived up to the billing. We kind of build this as earnings, complete with big macro events, and it delivered that and more.
[03:59:45] events, and it delivered that and more. And um you do wonder if this was I I I think I said this to beginning of this week. I was curious to figure out how this week was going to go and what we were going to learn from it and what we
[03:59:57] forward, right? I mean, up until this point, we had a week where pretty much the semies, what was going on with NASDAQ, and we'd see the moves, right? Semies down, we'd see the corresponding move in other areas of the market and
[04:00:12] forth. I've said it all week. I'm going to continue to say it as long as it keeps happening because honestly I've been able to sort of make sense of this market and do well as a result. And so when semies were down, consumer staples
[04:00:24] software were up. When semies were up, consumer staples software were down. And as a matter of fact, one of the big things that played out this week is the uh hedge fund, if you've heard about it, situational awareness. This happens at
[04:00:37] very interesting times in the market where uh you you know it's usually dominant theme in the market whether it's Bitcoin a few years ago with FTX long-term capital and which was basically uh currencies and and interest
[04:00:51] rates at the time and what something happened there and so in this current situation we were seeing that trend right the shift between semis and software and it ended up playing out um in a in a very wild way such that uh
[04:01:05] that firm blew out. And so this is a fascinating time because also you couple and you throw in the Fed meeting this week, right, where there was no change. where most of us thought there wasn't
[04:01:18] going to be a change, there was about a 24 to 25% chance that the Fed might raise rates just because of the environment that we're in. Think about it. You're seeing crude oil go up and down like crazy, but now it's heading
[04:01:30] back up. That's very inflationary to the environment. And that's a situation where the Fed typically um if you start seeing all these other measures whether seeing all these other measures whether it's PCE whether it's CPI whatever go up
[04:01:44] that means inflation is higher and Fed has to act typically now we have just so so happened to be in the in the the beginning of a change in the Fed regime and it seems as though Worsh in this most recent meeting and the meeting
[04:01:57] dictate the rate change not so much the Fed themselves which is very fascinating. We'll see how how it all ends up playing out. But, you know, rate changes, I mean, whe at some point in time, we feel like it might happen.
[04:02:10] Right now, there's a higher percentage chance of a rate uh rate hike happening know, they affect all stocks in a very a fascinating way, too. But, but but it's not something you should think
[04:02:23] day out how it affects your option. But it's it's it's an interesting um study potential option changes in premium a little bit. But I would say you should spend more time about thinking about how interest rates affect banks more than
[04:02:38] anything, right? I mean, that's that's probably the one area that I've I've wanted to grab a little bit of exposure in banks because I've seen how they've been moving more recently and and they
[04:02:51] honestly haven't been tied to any of the stuff that's going on with semis or AI or whatever it may be. They're kind of doing their own thing, which is nice. But [snorts] I do wonder at what point we're going to see somewhat of change in
[04:03:04] the environment, right? Um, so in general, banks, most of you probably years ago when I really thought about it and put it together. Banks make money by borrowing, lending at the uh, I'm sorry, borrowing at the short-term rate, right?
[04:03:19] When you think about uh, a CD, a year-long or two-year long CD or or say your your savings account or or something like along those lines, uh, you're usually giving them your money and they use that money to fund other
[04:03:32] things. typically uh when you're talking about mo mortgages, right? Like housing mortgages, right? And so those are at the longer end of the curve, the 30-year 30-year rates. So they're borrowing in the short term and they're lending in
[04:03:45] the long term. And so what they want is a situation where we have a steepening of the curve where basic basically you have 2% deposits, right? And like, you know, 6% mortgages. Think about that. That's a net interest margin of 4%. Um,
[04:03:59] but if for and that's a situation where the long-term curve is high rising faster, but if you have a situation where the short-term is rising faster than the long term, which kind of what we saw in 2022, that's not necessarily
[04:04:12] so great. So, we have seen them both rising at a very enormous rate more recently. I mean, just not that long ago, um, we saw the 10-year yield rise to the highest level since 2004, which is about 4.7%. And we saw the 30-year
[04:04:26] yield rise to a level of about I think 5.3% which was the highest that we've 5.3% which was the highest that we've seen since 2007. So there's been some rising of yields here. And as long as we don't have the 2022 situation where the
[04:04:40] 2-year yield exceeds a 30, then that's actually pretty good for banks because they're still making pretty good net interest margin, right? So, going to the chart here, I um well, you know, I'll I'll I'll take you through what what I
[04:04:52] what I initially did was I looked at all of the banks, right? I actually did a sort for uh all the different banks and I I looked at um you know, by market cap, which I I I really like to do uh quite often, at least a lot of the banks
[04:05:06] that I look at. And you know, JP Morgan is is is um when you look at diversified the highest. Goldman has I think has a higher market cap, but I'm excluding bank. I mean, they they're they're a whole another different beast sometimes.
[04:05:19] JP Morgan Bank, uh HSBC, uh Wells Fargo, City, all those type of deals. And and I was um I wanted to get a long position here, right? I was looking at different charts and JP Morgan is still kind of fairly at its
[04:05:32] highs. Even when I I kind of scroll out here, um looking over the past two years, stock is kind of on its highs. And you know, I don't mind buying something at its highs, but um and I may eventually get a position in JP Morgan,
[04:05:47] So, I looked at Wells Fargo. You know, Wells Fargo has a tendency sometimes to often be the lagard of the group. Um you know, they're they're I don't know. I it, but I I as much as I thought about doing something in here based on the
[04:06:01] chart pattern and possibly this thing has a chance to go higher. Um and maybe I I do one in here as well. Uh but I just I I wanted to find the best in class at least for right now. and and something that not only is it a strong
[04:06:13] bank, strong balance sheet, but also something that um was kind of maybe on on off of its highs, if you will. And so I eventually settled in on City Bank. Looking at the chart here, it's sitting around 133 and change. The high was 147
[04:06:27] around 133 and change. The high was 147 back in June. Um and just looking at had some dips and eventually, you know, you could argue that maybe we're in a another situation like we are right here where stock was 125 was high, dipped
[04:06:41] down to 106. You can do a little long long play here, and next thing you know, you're at 130, right? And so, I'm feeling the same way here. I'm looking at this stock. It's sitting at 133. Trying to see if I can reclaim highs.
[04:06:53] Trying to see if I can reclaim highs. So, I decided to look at a um go to the options here. Sorry. Uh look at the I want to go further out. wanted to give a little bit of time on this. Um, I also wanted to
[04:07:08] meeting, which I got to double check. I think that's in September sometime. Uh, let's take a look here. I think the next Fed meeting is on
[04:07:20] Fed meeting is on September 16th. And so I went out to get my long in October. I decided a diagonal would be a nice play here going to the 130 strike. stocks trading 133. I got a little aggressive. You could go to the
[04:07:34] 135 strike and I I'll I'll take a look at the different examples, but I went at the different examples, but I went with the 130 buying that October 130 and selling. Um I like to go $15 wide most times. I mean, it'd be great if you can
[04:07:46] times. I mean, it'd be great if you can get $20 wide, but um in this case, uh actually, what did I do? I did go $20 wide. I forgot. I originally I uh yeah, wide. I forgot. I originally I uh yeah, I went 130. Yeah, 150. Sorry. Um, that's
[04:07:59] what I ended up doing. Um, and uh, I got to make sure I'm moving in a fast market thing provided with the right the right one I was looking at. Yeah, I ended up going with the 1301 150 $20 wide. I ended up paying $860
[04:08:15] ended up paying $860 $8.70 for that position, right? And again, I it was enough premium in the 150 that I was comfortable selling. Like think I would have loved selling that, right? And so that gets to how different
[04:08:28] ways you can do this. You could have gone through the 135 um 150 as well. I always say you at least want a little bit less than half the
[04:08:40] width of the strike. So say you did the 135, that's 616. You know, that would qualify and you're still selling at least like 90 plus cents of premium, least like 90 plus cents of premium, right? What I don't love is if you go to
[04:08:52] say you want to try and um you know again you know that that uh say you want to go with the 145 because you feel like you know stock might get back to those highs at some point in time and say you wanted to go 145 you know anything less
[04:09:08] than uh you know one one anything greater than 155 probably doesn't work in this situation. Now if you did the 145 155 that's $10 wide spread. This is 145 155 that's $10 wide spread. This is $2.90. The most you can make is $710.
[04:09:21] But again, you would need uh city to be trading around 155 uh prior to September, which is possible, right? But that's a that's kind of a little bit more of a gamble than um I'm just paying this premium up front. It's
[04:09:35] just paying this premium up front. It's 77 days. I'm paying $8.60. It's $20 $8.70. It's $20 wide. I have a chance of making uh $1,270 max profit. If for some reason we get not only back to those highs, but above
[04:09:49] like 150, then I have a chance of possible full appreciation. To be truthfully honest, I think if um say this were to happen in the next uh let's say uh in the next uh you know 30 days here and this is a 19day option
[04:10:03] at this point and say the stock is trading at at uh 150. I would imagine I'm not making the full $1,270. I might be making maybe $900, maybe maybe $1,000
[04:10:16] on this, if that, which is more than enough. I'll take that win. I'll move on. But this is just one of those plays for uh the banks right now. Uh now, you could also, like I said, you could have, you know, done this in another name. You
[04:10:29] one floats your boat. Say you're looking at Wells Fargo. Say you want to make this similar play in here. Uh, again, it's a it's a lower dollar name, so the diagonal should be a lot cheaper. You might not be able to get as wide, but
[04:10:43] say you go with the 85 and say you go to September and you decide you want to sell uh the 95. I mean, that's the $10 wide spread right there. You could also wide spread right there. You could also do that. And this one is is um uh not
[04:10:58] one on. I like that as well. It's another way to get start getting some exposure to the bank. So, now we got the Wells Fargo uh $10 wide. The most we can make on this one is $5.15. Again, difference between those strikes
[04:11:12] Again, difference between those strikes um is is $10. So, I'm going to publish that as well. And you could also and and let's see if I'm you know, right now I like I said, I don't necessarily love the idea of doing JP Morgan with it with
[04:11:24] we were looking at it. It's kind of hard to get aggressive in this one because it's such a big dollar name, but say we did the 350. Say we went to September and we want to do $20 wide. See, this is why I don't necessarily love this one
[04:11:39] because it's $13.18. Let's just call it 1320 to make it simple. The most I can make on this is $6.80. So, I'm basically risking two to make one. I don't necessarily love that. We
[04:11:51] around, right? Risking one possibly to make one or risking, you know, um one to that. I don't necessarily love this on the diagonal. And that's one of the other reasons why I'm kind of staying away from JP on this one. Um, I could
[04:12:06] go, let's see, maybe even a little bit less aggressive, just a tad and say we less aggressive, just a tad and say we went to the 355 and say we went to SE and say we went to um $20 wide there.
[04:12:18] know, not really, right? Um, say 15. Even this, this is $15 wide. You're paying $10 and change. Sometimes in some of these names, it just doesn't work. and instead of forcing it, you just look for a better better situation. Luckily,
[04:12:31] banks, we have quite a few to choose from. I would imagine if you tried to do this in Goldman, I mean, a $1,000 stock is going to be really hard to do in that situation as well. So, settled in on on JP um sorry, settled in on City, JP
[04:12:46] Morgan was not necessarily the play. Uh but we settled in on City to do the diagonal. We also did one in Wells Fargo. We find those interesting. and we're just trying to get some exposure to the bank. Something something that's
[04:12:58] not semiis, that's not consumer staples, and that's not software for the time being cuz that's really been the big trades over the past month, if you will, and that's where a lot of people have lived. So, that's the trade of the day.
[04:13:13] We went with the city diagonal spread, buying Oct 30 to sell the September 150 call. We'll see if it plays out. Hopefully hopefully short-term rates
[04:13:28] don't exceed long-term rates. That's going to be bad for banks. But I think see some volatility in banks, which we saw a little bit this week in the wake of the Fed meeting. We'll see how it ends up playing out. That's my trade of
[04:13:40] quick little break and on the other side of that, Mike Butler's going to give you of that, Mike Butler's going to give you his trade of the day.
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[04:16:48] coming at you with another trade of the day. This one is in Apple. I feel fortunate that I wasn't involved in the bullish uh trade in Apple, which I more yesterday we did see a little bit of weakness. Uh Apple was one of the only
[04:17:04] the rest of the market just ripped higher in an insane rally. But uh after earnings, we're seeing it down 10% right now, trading around $300 per share, down 32 points from yesterday's close. And I think that brings an interesting
[04:17:19] opportunity, especially for a longer term trade. So, uh, Apple and Amazon reporting earnings yesterday. Amazon is up big, Apple's down big, which gives us this net result of basically nothing. NASDAQ's up 100 points. E-in up 24. But
[04:17:34] my trade of the day here, uh, just looking at this Apple chart, I was like, okay, I want to buy this dip somehow someway. Uh, the Super Bowl obviously is is the thing that came to mind just because it's been such a nice trade for
[04:17:47] us both to the upside and downside. Uh, and it really is a trade that uh, allows us to take advantage of these big directional shots or big directional bets. Do it in a in a risk-to-eed way, do it in a high probability way, but
[04:18:02] also give us much more profit potential. Uh, if we get that directional move received with like a put spread or something like that. U, I said this earlier today, if you wanted to sell a put in here into the sell-off, an
[04:18:16] undefined risk put, I think that is totally okay. and great. Uh but with defined risk trades, especially with these mid to higher price products, it's just harder to get uh it's harder to utilize the options in a way where you
[04:18:28] can manipulate them endlessly. Uh if you have a short put in Apple, you can buy it back if it gets tested, move it down 10 points and move it out a month. Like anytime [snorts] you roll a short put out in time, you're going to keep
[04:18:41] picking up credits along the way. Not necessarily the case for definers have a put spread and it goes in the money, there's not much you can do. Uh, if you're just rolling the same risk out in time, you'd be paying a debit. So, my
[04:18:54] thought is, why not give myself a good shot at a big upside profit potential with Super Bowl? And that's exactly what I did. Uh, my my short strikes on this I did. Uh, my my short strikes on this trade are the 290 280. And I was filled
[04:19:07] in October. I went to October for a couple of reasons, but really these trades aren't necessarily theta decay trades. Liz said this earlier uh and I couldn't agree more. I mean, you can do any expiration cycle
[04:19:21] you're not banking on volatility crushing and theta decay working uh to give you your max profit. Of course, it's going to be the case since I collected 35 cents for this trade. But this put spread, uh, it would have
[04:19:35] picked up $300, which is a great credit received for such a big move to the downside. But max profit of $300, if Apple reverses this move and goes up 30 points, I would make maybe 150 bucks, something like that, the second you add
[04:19:48] on a long call spread here, uh, it's currently trading for 45. So, this same better than what I was filled. But this 15point wide call spread immediately increases your max profit from just the shortput spread of $300 if it expires
[04:20:05] shortput spread of $300 if it expires out of the money 77 days from now to a $1,500 credit$535 exactly because I was filled at a 35cent credit. So all of a sudden you've multiplied your max profit potential by 5x 500%. and uh you give
[04:20:21] yourself the ability to make a lot more money on a move up sooner than just the put spread. 77 days out is a long time. So even if you got a 10 20 30 point
[04:20:33] spread, you're still going to have value in these options. You can see it here. These further out of the money options are still trading for 23 $400. Uh so all are still trading for 23 $400. Uh so all that said, this is really a delta trade.
[04:20:47] It's not really an implied volatility crush trade because I'm only collecting 35 cents. It's not really a theta decay trade because I'm only collecting 35. So, this truly is a delta trade where you're playing for a big reversal in the
[04:21:01] other direction with a Super Bowl setup. And that's exactly what I would want to be doing anyways in a MAG7 stock in Apple that was just at all-time highs Apple that was just at all-time highs and is now down 10% after earnings. uh
[04:21:14] I'm playing for over the next couple months this thing to reverse and again I don't even need it to go back to 345 350 just up to like 310 315 320 it's going to be a nice trade uh I have some other trades on that are similarly structured
[04:21:29] trades on that are similarly structured in meta so this is one where I collected 100 bucks in the middle 52510 600 615 same exact style October 10point wide call spread and we're seeing a little bit of a reversal here and it's up 100
[04:21:44] bucks. So, these are the types of things you can expect if you get the direction right and uh the timing doesn't matter on these trades because again you are selling a put spread that is worth a little bit more than the call spread
[04:21:58] that you're buying and as the market moves up if it's going to move up your spread gains value. So, that's how you can get into this trade for a credit and also exit this trade for a credit if you get that directional move right. So,
[04:22:13] let's take a look at the analysis tab. We can pull up the curve mode and uh look at the theoretical P&L. And I can actually just uh throw on I could just
[04:22:27] look at this trade I have here. So, this will give you the nice uh trade medallions here, the put spread and the call spread combined. So, we've got the 290 280 put spread. And again, I went with the 290 280 put spread. I was going
[04:22:41] to do the 300 and just go right at the money, but I looked at this chart and I was like, "Okay, we're at 300 right now." Uh, but if you look at 290, we kind of had a little bit of a bounce from there a couple of times uh earlier
[04:22:55] in June and then we bounced up from there and then we had this quick recovered really quickly. So, I kind of like that is just like a psychological point in time where I still have 10 10 points downside of wiggle room before
[04:23:09] I'm tested on the put spread. And we've seen this thing bounce a couple times from 290. We did drop below it slightly, but we recovered in just a few days. So, I like that. Uh if you go with a 300 290, that's just more aggressive on the
[04:23:23] put side. You're going to pick up a bigger credit and or you can move up give yourself more upside profit potential. So I went with this trade and again I was filled at 35. So max profit here in the middle is 35 but that's your
[04:23:39] expiration P&L. If you see this theorograph which we can switch over to right now if we don't change anything and we don't change time, we don't change implied volatility. This is basically what we're looking at. So on
[04:23:52] Monday we'll say and we could even do that. We can we can kick this to Monday. So, we'll go to August 3rd, which is Monday, and we'll evaluate at that point in time. If we get a reversal back to 330, this is the real big difference
[04:24:07] upper right corner here on the information flag, but my P&L Theo is 530 bucks if you don't account for any change in uh implied volatility or uh
[04:24:21] time passing in a big way. So that is ultimately the situation that we've got here. And uh looking at this trade all the way out in October, you can see I'm not really going to have too much u premium in the middle. It's really got
[04:24:37] directional trade and you can see that on the analysis mode. So that's the big spread and we can look at this like let's say we get a reversal to 330. My theo max profit is 550 bucks. That's a
[04:24:52] great return on this risk. It's a great return uh in general. But if you just look at the put spread, this is where the difference lies. If you get a move the difference lies. If you get a move back to 330, my P&L Theo is 160 bucks.
[04:25:05] That's still great. Uh but you that's the difference. That's the the trade-off here is you're not uh just collecting the put spread and and keeping this P&L graph in the middle totally flat. you have that asymmetry to where if you are
[04:25:18] right, you're going to make a lot more on that Super Bowl setup versus just the we've been using a lot more, especially in the S&P 1 days and zero days. S&P is
[04:25:30] a $7,500 product. So, it's a really interesting way to get directional uh and get that delta working in your favor if you have that move that works in your spread or just the call spread if you're bullish or bearish respectively. So,
[04:25:45] that's kind of what we're thinking here with this Apple Super Bowl. And again, if we pull up the trade that I've got on, the one I was already filled on, we can see here if we go to the Theo and continue to kick this down the road. So,
[04:26:00] let's evaluate this at the middle of August, we're going to see more profit potential. So, August 17th, if we get a rally back to 330, you can see here potential, 550 bucks somewhere around there. So again, it's not really a theta
[04:26:16] trade. It's more much more of a directional trade, but you can make a lot more relative to just the put spread. As you can see, the P&L Theo is what, three times more than the short put spread by itself if you get that
[04:26:28] directional move. But you're giving up the neutral premium in the middle if we just chop around in Apple. But the more something falls, especially in something the more directional I want to get anyways. So, I like the setup here. Uh
[04:26:43] YouTube chat. I've got it pulled up here if you've got any questions. But uh yeah, Jared, looks like you like the Apple Play. Uh love to see it. But yeah, I think this is uh a trade that we'll continue to utilize. It will be
[04:26:57] something we'll keep in our playbook, especially for directional uh price extremes. I think that's really it. When you see a product tank after earnings the types of strategies that you can utilize. And again, you don't have to be
[04:27:10] in a near-term cycle. You can go as far out as you want. I have a SpaceX one that's taking a lot of heat right now. SpaceX almost below 100. Crazy. But this one, uh, I went all the way out to Jan 2028 just to exemplify. You can utilize
[04:27:25] any time frame you want. I sold this put for three grand and I bought this 300 strike call for three grand or just under it. So, I collected a $300 credit in the middle. again taking heat right now, but if SpaceX gets back above 125
[04:27:40] over the next couple of years, it'll be a $300 winner. But if it really rallies, very similar to what we just looked at in Apple. So, I really like these trades. I think they uh set up well for those big directional assumptions and
[04:27:54] those big directional bets you want to make. But again, you've got the high probability trade because if you route it for a credit, that's the biggest key here. route the whole thing for credit and your probability of profit uh in the
[04:28:06] middle is where you get that neutral premium that you keep and that's how you compile that uh high probability risk graph. But that's it for me. Uh again, YouTube comments in the YouTube chat. But we're going to take a quick break.
[04:28:20] We're going to pass it over to E for his trade of the day right after this.
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[04:30:24] been getting a little bit of a mixed bag with all this volatility into the market. And I got to say, I actually really like Mike's trade. I think Apple not doing Apple. Uh but I actually thought that was really an attractive
[04:30:38] down. We're getting a continued sell off to the downside. So, uh I almost tailed close. Uh but I got something a little bit different for us today. I know Meta just had earnings. We had a pretty large gap down over the last couple of days.
[04:30:53] the bottom at around 526. Now we're trading about 20 points higher now. So these names, but I'm looking to get on a little bit of short delta here in Meta going to zoom out a little bit. I know Meta has been trading near its highs,
[04:31:09] chart over here. here. But if I go to the weekly chart and we zoom out a little bit more, you can kind of still see how overextended, you know, Meta has kind of been uh on this overall rally we've seen in the market. I know on a
[04:31:23] sitting, you know, near those lows, but given the pop we've seen over the last couple of days, I want to see if we can catch a little bit of downside here. So, again, not I would say extremely typical for myself. I usually like getting on
[04:31:36] those uh counter trend trades whenever we have a little bit more of an extended move in one direction of the market. So, this one's a little bit different, but I expiration to give ourselves a little bit more time. Um, I do like Meta. Um, I
[04:31:51] about. You know, maybe they've been spending a little bit more than they should, but they're also in a position to where they can do that. So, going to be looking at Meta over here. I was looking at the 49 days, so expiration. I
[04:32:03] also isn't something that I want to get too aggressively directional on. So that's why I'm looking to go out in time a little bit more, maybe collect an additional credit than we would on a shorter time frame. And then also
[04:32:17] little bit more time. Uh I didn't want to pay a debit for this one either because I didn't want time working against us. So I'm personally going to expiration. Looking at getting on a little bit of short delta here. Uh the
[04:32:30] implied move for this month is going to be around 44% right right now. Uh just shy of six a $60 range over the next 49 days. And I'm really excited for this expiration that's going to expire about what that's going to expire just into
[04:32:46] September. Uh and I'm excited for these holiday months and the potential volatility we might see into the end of the year. Um and then again with us during this cycle, those kind of things. I'm excited for it. But I'm excited for
[04:32:59] the volatility to come. But I'm looking at selling this 570, maybe buying the 575. That's going to give us about a $1.70 worth of credit. This one is a little bit close to the strikes. Not too close. We're still getting about a 62%
[04:33:12] pop. Uh this one is one of those trades that is more so like the uh more so the tasty more so going with the tasty mechanics. Like I've known in the trades that kind of veer outside of the tasty mechanics we you know we typically
[04:33:27] tend to. Um but this one's going to be like an OG tasty trade. So looking at selling the 570s, buying the 575s, markets are a little bit wide here. I for about a $1.70. Now this one's going for $155. So again, this one's not going
[04:33:42] to be too directional. I don't want to get too directional on these trades. And on top of that, you know, we have on some other pretty aggressive directional trades on bonds right now. Uh we have a zebra on in TLT if you missed that one
[04:33:54] from yesterday. Uh and then we have some more short delta on in Micron. Um so would still love to see a continued selloff on some of these memory names. Um and with those trades having a little bit less time, what I'm doing here is
[04:34:07] I'm really trying to consider everything else that I have on the portfolio for when I consider everything else, I really like the MetaTrade. Um, and the more time and since it's given us a little bit more time, we start off with
[04:34:21] a little bit more flexibility than we otherwise would have had. So, going to is 49 days till expiration. Just a little bit of short delta. Uh, -2.35. So, it's not very aggressive. Um, but it's a little bit more delta neutral,
[04:34:36] skewed to the downside, I guess you could say. The P50 is going to be 72% right now. That's pretty attractive. And I like that the pop is above 60. So just up so far, it's a pretty it's a pretty basic trade. It's a pretty tasty
[04:34:48] mechanic followed trade there. It's going to use about $317 worth of buying power. Our max loss is going to be that exact $317. And our max profit is going to be the full credit that we that we receive on the trade. We're probably not
[04:35:03] thing, right? Because I'm going to be getting a message from Dr. Jim if we start to do that, trying to milk these products to the last penny. Um, but bit of short delta, take advantage of some of that post earnings volatility
[04:35:16] that we've seen in the market. So, we're going to go over there with Meta. Uh, maybe we get maybe we adjust this just a little bit. I'll adjust this one down. couple minutes. Let's see if we get filled. We'll give it a couple minutes.
[04:35:30] here with each other. So, we'll see if we can get filled while we go through these other products that we're looking at. So far, the NASDAQ So far, the at. So far, the NASDAQ So far, the NASDAQ has been pretty slow. Uh, not as
[04:35:44] would have pulled the trigger to get short earlier this morning given the going to be patient for that. I know we still have a few hours left into the day. Uh, I know one of the levels we're going to be paying attention to and we
[04:35:57] can mark this one off together. Uh, let me see if I can go to a larger time frame here. Let's see if we can clean this up a little bit. So, I'm going to delete this. delete this,
[04:36:10] clean this up a little bit, uh, and adjust some of these ranges. Uh, but let me let me see. We're going to be marking let me see. We're going to be marking off 28,186
[04:36:23] off 28,186 and 28,000 flat. Um, so levels throughout the duration of the day, we'll see if we can take some trades off of it. Right now we are down on the micro Nasdaq about $116. There
[04:36:37] was just a few trades that we were looking at in the overnight session. So we kind of came into today starting off in a little bit of a draw down which has some of the trigger with some of the trades that we pulled the trigger on
[04:36:49] coming into the day. Um so with that being said, I just want to mark these levels off so we know exactly what we're going to be looking for. 21,187 28,187. There we go. Here.
[04:37:03] Uh yeah, no I just got to shout out the shout out the product team too because the software feels really good to use even using all these tools. I know we were so used to using you know trading view um and using some of their trading
[04:37:16] tools but a lot of these charting tools have definitely been upgraded. 28,15 is the next value area low we're going to be looking at. 28,15.
[04:37:29] are on a daily time frame. But if I bring this into uh a daily chart, you little bit more response off this value area high. Not only that, you know, we
[04:37:41] same level yesterday. I would love if the market could dip into 28,000 flat or it's at. And then also, I think Jamal and Mike would appreciate that as well directional trade to the downside where if they get it around 28,000, it's going
[04:37:56] profit for their trade. and it's kind of coinciding with with one of the levels that I'm looking at. Uh but I would love to potentially get long or short at around this 28,000 level, but this is where we've seen most of the trading
[04:38:10] activity take place. And this is where we've seen a little bit more fair value. And we always notice a specific type of price behavior. Whenever we're trading in within fair value, we typically get a little bit more consolidation. Sometimes
[04:38:22] the market will use it as a level of quote unquote support and quote unquote resistance. So, we tested it a couple times today. Um, but outside of that, have another level of value to the upside that we're looking at. And this
[04:38:35] next level of value happens to be one of the price ranges on the chart where the market spent most of its time actually last week. Uh, and that's going to be between 28,651 and 28,47
[04:38:48] and 28,47 28,000. What is that again? 28,471. case we get the opportunity later in the day, I would love for us to be able to come back here on Monday and kind of see how it played out if we get the
[04:39:00] Uh, so let's just mark these off together while we're here. Go clean that up. Clean that up. I love the volatility we've been getting, but the market has been in straight price discovery mode pretty much all week. Like, we really
[04:39:15] haven't had a level where the market has found fair value. Uh we've pretty much just been in imbalance mode, which is another term for price discovery in the market. And that's pretty much what the market's been looking for so far today.
[04:39:27] Uh but that's going to be 28,471 for the value area low. 28,471. And then the value area high is going to be 28,651.
[04:39:44] be 28,651. Let's find 28,0006. Let's find 28,0006. There we go. About 28,653 28,250 how the market is going to respond around these price levels right here.
[04:39:58] And again, the whole idea about using levels of value is the fact that auction constantly seeking fair value. And fair value being the price range or price level where buyers and sellers quote unquote agree on price. And depending on
[04:40:11] typically see a very specific trading behavior. Whenever we're trading outside directional markets or a little bit more see over here whenever we broke to the downside this morning, if I can find
[04:40:26] had a little bit more of a directional makes sense from a logical standpoint too when we really think about liquidity because the market moves and the market is constantly seeking liquidity. And
[04:40:40] whenever we get a trending market, it's typically because we have a lack of, you those price ranges. And the market is going to constantly seek the next bid or constantly seek the next ask. So, it makes sense, especially on a market like
[04:40:53] NASDAQ that's a lot more volatile than the S&P 500. It makes sense why the makes sense why we sometimes have a little bit of a cleaner trending market. Um, but again, by using a volume profile in auction market theory, we can kind of
[04:41:07] found most interest. So, that's pretty much the whole idea of, you know, paying we have over here. Uh, but right now, the market is looking like it's wanting to trend towards this value area low. But, we will circle back around to that
[04:41:20] and kind of see how this plays out. Um, but if you are just joining, one of the spread on Meta. Just getting on a little bit of short delta. That's going to be 49 days left till expiration. So, we got a good we got a good almost 2 months on
[04:41:35] manage at around 21 days left to expiration. And another position that going to be the Micron position where we sold an out of the money call spread. the downside on these pullbacks that we've been seeing on some of these
[04:41:50] and the overall market selling off to the downside definitely helped uh these positions a little bit more or vice versa, right? But, uh it's nice to get some short delta on in there considering the fact that it seems like we have a
[04:42:04] lot of range on these names, you know, whether that's Micron, SanDisk, or Intel. SanDisk is going to have earnings August 5th. So, that's something that next week. Uh because sometimes those earnings can affect um some of the other
[04:42:17] going to keep an eye on it. Uh but again, if you're just joining, trade of the day was going to be meta. Uh we have on a Micron position. We still have on that Google position uh that we had put on last week from Google from Google
[04:42:29] tested right now. So we'll circle back around to how we're going to manage that one. And then we still have a little bit more short delta on in SPY. Um so we'll positions. I appreciate you guys taking your time. Uh be sure to stay tuned. Uh
[04:42:43] guest, get his thoughts on the overall market, um and any other specific trades see you guys here in a quick moment. Stay tuned.
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[04:44:57] day. We're going to be bringing on a guest, Chris Ule. Uh Christopher Ule. it's uh great for you to be with us. want to get your forward to uh looking forward to being here and talking about the market. It's
[04:45:11] That's for sure. >> It has been pretty tough, right? It kind can shift on a dime and I feel like we've really seen that especially this week with FOMC on Wednesday. You know, some of the mag seven earnings. It
[04:45:25] shift at the blink of an eye. Have you kind of experienced the same thing this >> Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, I've been stopped out of more trades in the last long long time. And a lot of it has to do with the fact that Iran, you know,
[04:45:39] the the war over there, the the knot war continues to be a not war. And um the the issue with that is regardless of your political persuasion, Donald Trump in reality is one of the main driving market uh movers of the market, right?
[04:45:53] He can sit on his golden throne and he can tap this screen and he can say can send prices soaring or prices crashing. And how do you trade around that, right? There's no real way to do that. So, like I say, I've been stopped
[04:46:06] but one that's worked really well for me, um, is Apple leading up into Apple today. Apple's getting crushed down almost 10% today. Um, yeah, I
[04:46:18] traded that one. I got into it on the 7th and it basically just went straight up, which was a wonderful trade. Really helped offset a lot of those losses that I've been uh, having to deal with over getting stopped out. But this arrow is
[04:46:31] one of the number one reasons why I do not trade earnings, right? As great as it would be if it rocketed 10% higher, we can't control that, right? We're at the the the mercy of the market when something like this happens. Uh were you
[04:46:43] paying attention to the stock? >> Yeah, 100%. I I was paying attention to flying underneath the radar. I recognized that Apple was trading at its So, I thought that was interesting. and the fact that it was pulling back ahead
[04:46:57] all-time highs. I thought it put it in a very awkward position to be able to paying attention to it. It's been performing really well and I feel like love cuz the memory names been taking mostly attention, but Apple just
[04:47:10] >> Oh, yeah, for sure. You know, Earl, I I actually go live twice a day every day that I say on my YouTube channel is alltime highs is bullish AF, right? You've got literally nobody above you. There's not a single person out there.
[04:47:25] walked the earth, if you owned Apple since then to now, you are up money, environment to be in. But also like earnings earnings will take it down. You worth of gains just wiped out all at once. Have you looked at Netflix lately?
[04:47:41] >> I haven't been going down the entirety of last quarter. been taken off my radar. >> Yeah. >> Uh but it's been getting absolutely crushed. uh is there anything due to the
[04:47:53] on in Netflix? >> Well, it really comes down to the fact that uh the way that prices move in the markets is an imbalance of fear and greedy, that's going to push the prices up. When people become fearful, that's
[04:48:06] going to push the prices down. And whenever um whenever earnings come out, it really can rebalance what that fear and greed looks like. And in Netflix's earnings that happened in April. It was on a big, beautiful run leading up into
[04:48:20] earnings. sold off 11% and literally went down nearly every day the rest of the quarter and now we're looking at it uh after the the most recent earnings and it it may be in a similar situation once again. I mean the uh the earnings
[04:48:34] you're not ready for it, >> right? And it definitely seems that way. I I mean we we've gotten some pretty large gaps now that now that you continue to bring up earnings. I mean we had a pretty large gap down on Meta. Uh
[04:48:47] as well. Apple's having another large gap during this time of the year. Um, so gaps definitely can't be understated, but in Netflix, another one that's been >> You know, it's funny you talk about uh the pullback in and uh memory stocks
[04:49:03] like uh Micron that's been getting killed. SanDisk has been getting killed killed. SanDisk has been getting killed lately. And um one area that I'm into is the staples. So consumer staples. Um that's really a flight to
[04:49:16] they when they don't know what's going to going to happen, right? We can't eat memory stocks. We can't uh fill our cars up with memory stocks. We we can't put things like that on the pantry in the shelf and and and in our bellies. So,
[04:49:31] people go to flight to safety stocks like the Staples. Um couple names that are interesting to me right now are like Costco, Walmart, Target. Some names that going to be around. People are always going to be interested in them. And if
[04:49:45] seems like it's found a bottom and it's starting to push up a bit higher. it's like the old faithful the old faithful stocks, right? It seems like into. And it's funny that you brought that up because I see we're starting to
[04:50:00] hold here. Uh some other products as well like Coca-Cola I recognize we're conversation of what you've been bringing up. Hines, right? Like Hines things are doing really well right now. But no, uh Costco's been another one.
[04:50:14] some of these some of these stocks that aren't the sexiest to trade or that have pretty well right now to the point you're making. >> Yeah. And and it really comes down to to the mindset of the consumer, right? As
[04:50:27] as great as AMD was, as great as Micron and SanDisk were, right, it it doesn't uh at the end of the day sustain you, right? So defensive stocks like not necessarily that Coke is going to sustain you, but some of the products
[04:50:41] that they sell definitely can. Uh but man, one sector that I'm staying as far >> Energy. Okay. >> I am not I I've literally said energy is off my radar until the uh the end of the whole Iran not war because dude it's
[04:50:56] like every time you turn around it's up 5% down 5% and it's a very very difficult market to to uh to trade. Uh but then you could look at something that's a lot smoother like Microsoft. Have you seen Microsoft after earnings?
[04:51:09] well. I know uh uh Mike on the team has been trading this one has been pretty happy lately, but another ma another massive gap off these earnings of some very directional moves. Yeah. >> But but to that point, those gaps can be
[04:51:21] brutal, right? Brutal both directions, right? Imagine that you were short. against uh Microsoft at earnings. It's up 20% this week, right? If it can break candle right there, I could see a lot of strength coming through, right? I could
[04:51:35] definitely see some overhead resistance at this point where those uh those they're looking to get out as fast as they can, right? So, if Microsoft can push through that level right there, it definitely has some room to go up to
[04:51:48] another uh up to another area that could be uh overhead resistance. >> No, it's a good point. I mean, up 2 and a half% on the day, you know, after gapping up, you know, from a low of 390 uh all the way to a high the next day at
[04:52:01] 450. So, I mean, that's 60 points in less than 24 hours. And it seems like bit there. >> You know what I like about gaps? I call it a gap and go. And what we're looking at on Microsoft is a gap and go. Um, and
[04:52:13] that's where it gaps up at least 5%. And then it continues to push higher, right? then it continues to push higher, right? A new regime has formed, a uh a new uh a new buyer pool has come to town and people are excited, right? That
[04:52:25] imbalance has shifted more towards the the greed. But anytime you see a gap like this and then it closes below the low of that gap candle the next day, I call that a gap and crap. And it's a you know what, this is a fake out. Get out
[04:52:37] where the top of that line is over there is a perfect example of a gap and crap, right? It gapped up immediately turned around. That's not where you want to be. point. I can't tell from your from your chart right there, but it looks like it
[04:52:50] went down for several maybe 3, four weeks at a time right there. Yeah, I know at the high of this red day you were referencing was going to be June 1st. Uh and at the low of that move was uh June 20 25th. Um so we haven't been
[04:53:03] months. >> But it does seem like that momentum is point that you're making a little bit of that gap and go gap and go action. >> Gap and go. And that's a great trade, right? I I used to be scared of gaps. I
[04:53:15] used to be scared of gaps. And now >> what made you get a little more comfortable to to recognize these ideas and potentially trade some of these? Was What was it for you? >> It really was a little of both, right?
[04:53:28] It's uh I mean, I've been trading for 17 years. Um so I've definitely had some Um but a lot of it is getting comfortable with these type of moves. And the more you see it, the more you
[04:53:40] can recognize, you know what, gaps aren't scary if they continue on. And really, it's it could be a uh a great catalyst. In fact, if you look at Palanteer a few quarters back was a great example. It had a gap and it
[04:53:52] great example. It had a gap and it didn't stop going for months. >> Palanteer is not the big beautiful sexy stock that it was a few uh a few months It's funny. I I keep my ear to the to the ground on on YouTube because I I
[04:54:06] I've made so many videos. But um Palunteer, SoFi, AMD, like there were several like real big uh stocks that people just couldn't get enough of. And Palanteer having been one of them, it's not the case anymore. And you can see I
[04:54:20] think it's down roughly 30% give or take. I don't know exactly from its all-time highs. >> Um but yeah, right now it is uh it's not even buy Arrol with your money. That's how much I would not buy. [laughter]
[04:54:32] right now. >> No, of course not. >> So, speaking of SoFi, uh let's take a look at SoFi. They just had earnings recently. And uh another example of why I won't trade.
[04:54:45] >> Yeah, been absolutely beaten down lately. trading at about 1631 right now and just a few weeks ago we were trading at about uh 3275. So I mean it's been last swing high at least. >> Absolutely. Arrol, I want you to add
[04:54:58] you get a chance. I want you to use the 10 EMA, the 20 EMA, and the 50 EMA. That's what I call the outlier trend template. When the 10 is over the 20 and price is over the 50, mathematically speaking, it is a bullish trend. Now, we
[04:55:11] duration, but it will absolutely show you with mathematical certainty which direction you're going. And once that ends, it'll start and flip the other That's going to be the 10, the 50, and the what else?
[04:55:23] >> 10 20 50. There we go. >> When the 10's over the 20 and price is over the 50, that mathematically is showing you the trend is up. Again, I way, but it will show you by math time and duration that it is moving in that
[04:55:36] dude. add that to your chart and you'll be really surprised by that. >> 100%. Well, definitely take a look at that. Um, that's one of the nice ways here. We can get different ideas. >> Um, but with that being said, what what
[04:55:49] know you're not going to be touching energy. It's too uncertain. We have a especially to any type of geopolitical news. Um, but how do you personally kind of view the volatility index? How do you kind of use this for yourself when kind
[04:56:04] trades that you might want to put on? Is this is this something that's in your >> So, VIX is really not anything that I pay a lot of attention to. One of the attention to it is for me, I actually buy deep in the money options.
[04:56:18] wizards, Larry Height, and he was actually the very first billion-dollar hedge fund manager. And, uh, one of the things that he taught me was if you ever wanted to have futures like uh, futures like leverage on any stock out there,
[04:56:31] You don't go for the at the money. go deep in the money because then you don't yet you can still take advantage of those big delta moves. Um so that's the mean like volatility really the the vega on the options pricing really just comes
[04:56:46] down to almost zero. Um but for me like right now I'm just watching the spy. If you look at the spy right now it's in an area of I literally have uh overhead resistance and under underhead I guess you could call it underhead support and
[04:56:59] points right now. So, we really need to see uh a real imbalance of one or the meantime, dude, this is a tough market, right? We've been going sideways uh since May, I believe. And because of that, it takes a lot of uh a lot of
[04:57:15] one direction or the other. I I don't want to call myself perma bear, perma perma bull, or per perma anything. I'm a perma opportunist. And right now, the trade. >> No, it's a great point that you make.
[04:57:28] this this this this last couple of weeks has definitely been the same sentiment all the way or all around. Uh but I know we are coming to a of mind as we get into the last few hours of uh of market open for the day?
[04:57:42] next week? Uh what are you going to >> Dude, right right now I actually have all my money in uh in box bxx now. second. I was like okay. >> It actually was in bonds. I have been uh
[04:57:56] putting things into ESG, SGOV, which is ultra short-term bonds. But uh BOXX, BOXX with two X's. Got >> um that is actually where 100% of my cash is right now. Uh reason being is it's basically just a place where you
[04:58:09] can earn interest on uninvested money. Um think of it like if your broker pays you don't have to stress about it. But this is a place where right now I'm getting paid to sit in cash and not make
[04:58:22] any mistakes in the market as it's uh as it's really trying to figure out which direction that is either up or down, I'll be there. But in the meantime, I consistent growth. I'm basically getting paid daily interest to do that.
[04:58:36] basis, on a day-to-day basis. So, I hear you. going to kind of transition to some of those areas in the market once uh uncertainty I guess you could arise if market moves that we've been seeing lately um or or or lack of conviction in
[04:58:50] the news we've gotten this week and the volatility. is uh more conviction in the market and and I don't take any trade unless it's set up all the way, I'm not even touching it. Well, especially because
[04:59:03] you can recognize really well and a trade that you really want to attack >> Oh, yeah. >> Right. So, it's like why not just wait conviction in rather than losing a little bit of pocket change here, here,
[04:59:17] and here, and it really adds up. So, I hear you on that. it's it's it was great having you on here today. We'd love to have you back market and what's been going on. Uh, but with that being said, Chris, thanks for
[04:59:31] the chat really enjoyed your time. They really like the the EMAs that you were have you back here soon. >> I appreciate it, dude. I'm live twice a come subscribe. I'll see you there. >> Absolutely. Thank you, Chris. And where
[04:59:46] give that real quick. Where where can we Just type in my name, Christopher Ule. You'll find me right there. It couldn't >> Beautiful. Beautiful. All right, Chris, you take it easy. Thank you guys. Thanks
[04:59:58] for more amazing content here in a little bit. Be sure to stay tuned. Be sure to check out some of Chris's content on the socials and we'll see you content on the socials and we'll see you guys here in a little bit. Peace.
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[05:04:30] next 30 minutes. We're going to call this a futures power half hour here on Errol, how's your day going so far? >> It's a pretty good day. I can't here in Chicago today, but it is a Friday, last day of the trading month. I
[05:04:45] hope everybody's not sick of seeing me so far today yet, cuz I am back. Um, no. your mind? trying to fight through the uh the Amazon, the Apple earnings, dealing with
[05:04:59] Microsoft Meta. We obviously have everything going on in terms of a a major player in the market getting, you know, taken out, so to speak. And yeah, he's not done yet. He'll be back. Leopold Hashen Brener will be back.
[05:05:11] Situational awareness will be around. Uh but clearly the market getting that out of the way has been a relief valve here. I mean, volatility has come in. I think because we only have about 20 minutes left to go. Anyway, our half hour goes
[05:05:25] by very, very fast here. I want to go to uh volatility futures here, Arrol, because all of a sudden it's an 1835. Not for nothing, this is going to be very close to, if not the lowest, but the second lowest close of this cycle
[05:05:37] for the August V futures. Uh 1830 right now, which is pretty dang low. Talk to just had where literally a few days ago volatility hit its monthly high. >> Almost at 21. We now are back below 17 here. What kind of what does that
[05:05:52] whipssaw do for how you approach this market? You know what? It's actually added a little bit uncert it's added a little bit of uncertainty for me in my it's been very difficult to understand or at least manage the overall sentiment
[05:06:05] an aggressive selloff at the beginning of the week. We barely seen volatility of the week. We barely seen volatility pop to 19 on the VIX. So, it tells me ported into this into this market very easily, right? you you would have think
[05:06:20] a little bit of that roller coaster action to the downside would have people doesn't look like that especially with ve collapsing back on its butt today uh sitting around 1650 so it's added a level of uncertainty for me until we get
[05:06:33] a little bit more clarity Chris how have you perceived all this volatile action so far in terms of uh the VIX [clears throat] honestly like the like the the market clearly is uh [snorts] clearly has been
[05:06:46] dealing with something and the fact That's for sure. don't know what we want to call it, but down to a 16 volatility of volatility has collapsed as well. Vivix was at 108
[05:07:00] >> right? >> Um and so there's this feels like almost like a clearing week in a certain extent. You know, we've we've ripped the bandage off and now [sighs and gasps] the market can exhale a little bit here.
[05:07:14] I mean, not for nothing. uh the way that those earnings turned out this week, of the earnings growth rate for the quarter um and the overall earnings wouldn't surprise me when we get our update here. I have to double check fact
[05:07:27] produce their uh study, I wouldn't be surprised if the overall value of the market, the PE ratio for the market is sitting below its five or maybe even its 10 year averages at this point in time, >> right?
[05:07:40] tons of other stuff going on, but low volatility. Yeah, >> market's cheap. >> Market's cheap. Market still could be the Fed's going to keep rates lower for longer. But hey, let's go to the NASDAQ
[05:07:54] >> The real market. Yeah, >> the real market. Not like that Dow Jones What? What a ridiculous construction of an index. Um 28,484 here. We're kind of pinned just below those lows we had in early June. We can't really climb
[05:08:09] trying to carve out a low here? How are you approaching the trade here today? Even with that, you know, we had a violent pullback earlier and we're we've clawing back from it all session long. >> You know what? I'm I'm not I'm not too
[05:08:23] You know, whenever we had seen the rally off the lows come Thursday, it made me don't know how convinced I am. You know, I know SPY has has be to trade back trading in uh the entirety of these
[05:08:38] summer months here, but uh I'm I'm not I'm not too sold yet. Not not to say I'm you know we're going to whip back up to all-time highs or we're just going to step down to making lower lows. Uh but it's uh it's a great deal of uncertainty
[05:08:52] know how sold I am on on these lows and I think a couple of my positions are reflecting that I had sold an out- of the money call spread on the cues, right? Not really signifying that I think the floor is going to fall, you
[05:09:04] now, but just to get a little bit of directionality, I'm sorry, a lack of directionality, a little bit more sideways movement. But because of that, I'm not sold I'm not sold on it yet, Chris. I love the volatility, though.
[05:09:17] maybe you mentioned that we're back in the midpoint of the summer range is to be made, right? One of the things about the VIX and volatility falling you know, Victor Jones used to say this here at Network. When you look at the
[05:09:31] return stats about where is volatility likely more likely to go if you're at like an 18 VIX, are you more likely to go to 20 or to 16? And it's basically a coin flip. You're kind of in this gray danger zone where things can go sideways
[05:09:44] it's a small bump in the road. But you mentioned the middle point of the summer range here. Maybe V collapses further from here. Maybe we go back down. It was a 1493 low in the VIX for the month of July. Maybe we get back down there in
[05:09:57] Maybe we go back down towards the range highs in volatility which was closer to 21. Uh and that probably goes with a decline in stocks. But where we stand, not all the V has been taken out yet. We're not selling V at a sub5 VIX, which
[05:10:10] is not something you should do ever. Our own data suggests that you just might as well buy stocks at that point because you're taking additional risk and you're reducing your average daily return when you sell premium with a VIX below 15. So
[05:10:22] at a 17 still, you can get something done here. I'm going out in ES to Let's done here. I'm going out in ES to Let's just start poking around. What does what does 21 days look like? What does 20 Yeah, let's go to 20. Actually, we go
[05:10:35] to 20 31 end of month for August. Okay. So, where are our range levels here? Bottom side of the range just below 7,300. Top side of the range just below 7,300. Top side of the range just under 77. Believe
[05:10:48] it or not, that's where the expected move sets right now. So, we have the trade tab. Of course, if we see the number on the right hand column on the top right hand side, you see plus or minus 223.07 points. As we both know,
[05:11:01] that's the plus or minus expected move for this market here. Um, curiously enough, we're sitting in the middle of a 400 point range. So, here here's what we're going to do. 72570 750 just outside the high end. Uh, we're going to
[05:11:15] dip a little bit below 7275 7250 here on the uh low end. That's your iron condor, fit the mechanics? Right. So, we're in the middle of a range, middle of a the mechanics call for and does the pricing afford you the opportunity to do
[05:11:31] something around here? So 43% probability of profit. That's not so here's where it gets interesting. These strikes are $25 wide in ES. So in theory, we're looking for like $8.33 of credit here to consider this something
[05:11:45] >> Mhm. >> And I'm seeing $8.90 flash across my screen right now. So yes, the risk-to-reward is here, Arl. We want to midpoint of the summer range. We can express that view through ES futures. We
[05:11:57] still have a little bit of a long kicker on here. I'm still leaning long. MEES. >> Um, but >> over the next month, maybe we oscillate period when volatility tends to go up. >> Uh, maybe some people feel trapped.
[05:12:11] Let's see what we can get going here. 31 DTE. We'll work the order a little bit. show. >> What do you think is the headline that the market is waiting for? Do you think it's going to be that next interest rate
[05:12:24] band-aid? What do you think it's going to be that we're now waiting for now seven earnings have passed. What do you think is going to be around the corner for everyone to look forward to >> with a firm date? You're probably right.
[05:12:38] Um Fed meeting, of course, it the month of August is coming up. So in the month Federal Reserve meeting. We get the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium out in Jackson Hole, uh Wyoming, where all the head honchos of the major
[05:12:52] central banks including all the Fed governors, regional presidents, etc. they all they all get together to go talk about monetary policy. Um that form has been used in years past to change the market's perception around what the
[05:13:05] Fed is trying to accomplish. I think specifically about what occurred during specifically about what occurred during co when the Fed changed its like more of a hard 2% target to what they refer to as their average inflationing targeting
[05:13:18] scheme AIT. And that was basically an excuse to say, listen, inflation was so in the years after the global financial crisis. We may be willing to be flexible
[05:13:30] to let it overshoot for a little while. Because if we'd have 1% inflation for 5 years and 3% inflation for 5 years, on average, inflation was 2% over the past it so narrowly like, what was inflation over the past year? 2%. No. Okay, we're
[05:13:46] doing something wrong. Um, and sure enough, that loosening of their inflation wave. So, one of the reasons why the Fed was late is because, well, see over inflation overshoot for a little while,
[05:13:58] >> Okay. So, Jackson Hole can be important. That's coming up at the end of the on that. Uh, that's more important than the rate hike in September because rate hike in September and it also is going to provide the lens with which we
[05:14:10] should view CPI and non-farm payrolls because a pow of Powell miss him. If worse comes out and says there's no data that can come out between now and going to hike in September no matter what. All of a sudden the market's going
[05:14:26] non-firm payroll sprints and instead of having volatility priced into them, the V's going to come out because the markets the decisions made. The data already only the data only matters in so far as it has an impact on what the Fed
[05:14:41] Fed pricing, the market is going to roll past non-farm payrolls and not care >> Yeah. >> Uh so yeah, I mean, pay attention to Jackson Hole. Earnings is the other side of this equation.
[05:14:56] Maybe it's a three maybe it's a three-sided coin. If if the US and the and Iran came to a a peace deal, right, the straight reopened fully, the US pulls back its armada, Iran stops launching missiles, Trump and uh you
[05:15:09] know, the new committee are shaking hands in a photo op. Like obviously over the top imagery, but like you know the the war is over over not just going to take inflation pressures out of the system immediately. Um there
[05:15:24] it would take the pressure out of the system. And then the other one would be the earnings more earnings like Microsoft and Amazon right now uh that show these hyperscalers are converting dollars spent into dollars earned
[05:15:38] >> really. I mean we can go right back to Amazon here today actually on the chart. There's a reason why it's doing what it's doing on 15.1% here today. This is a this is a misunderstanding of what the business had been doing in recent weeks.
[05:15:50] >> The market perception here was too much capital expenditure, not enough revenue. go actually they are be able to turn a profit on some of this stuff. >> Uh maybe we're wrong. Microsoft too up 15.5% after the earnings yesterday.
[05:16:04] >> So box done. >> No no no that was very uh informative these things are going to be perceived and I I think that photo op is going to be really important. Right. I think specifically that photo op that I could
[05:16:18] mentioned it here. Yeah. No, I mean it's a great point that you make. Uh, I mean, that you reminded me that it's going to be Jackson Hole. Uh, can you state that going to get a Fed announcement in August. Why is that again? If you could
[05:16:32] >> Yeah, so the Fed meets eight times a year, once every six weeks, right? >> And uh they specifically have a they have their monetary policy conference in August where instead of hosting a a regular meeting, they do July, their
[05:16:45] meeting again in September. >> Okay. And so that's usually why like get a meeting in September, it comes right before Halloween or right after, right? So 6 weeks, September 15th or so, add 6 weeks. So you're getting to the
[05:16:59] few more weeks now you're getting to right before Christmas. And then you get your end of January, beginning of February, pharmacy meeting, March, late April, early May, June definitely. But um you're always going to have June,
[05:17:13] uh anchor points. >> Gotcha. why do I bring up some of this though? Because we talk about how the market out in the future. We'll remind folks when we get closer to Jackson Hole, but
[05:17:26] September 4th, just to put from theory to practice here a little bit. September report. You can see that right now the volatility is 18.8%. When we get to says, this V number should be jumping around. It's going to be the it's the
[05:17:41] whether or not the incoming data matters because if it goes down then the concerned about this. Worsh just told us what's going to happen next. And if the V goes through the roof the market's telling you then oh we clearly think
[05:17:55] telling you then oh we clearly think that this is a a fulcrum point. It's a decision. It's the it's a hinge upon which the next rate hike swings. >> And so we should be paying attention to it. But those are the little clues you
[05:18:07] like now that we have some of these daily and weekly options in S&P and ES, curve and the particular teners you need to uh to look at in order to understand what people are actually caring about,
[05:18:20] what people are actually caring about, >> right? mean, it's the last month of the trading month today, Chris. finally have these MAG 7 earnings out of the way. feels like that was kind of on
[05:18:34] the precipice of what we were all waiting for. Uh I don't want to say it was anticlimatic. Uh but again, it's left me in the same position that I was in prior to FOMC, a little bit more uncertainty. Um I almost
[05:18:46] some of these positions that we're putting on when we had a steady highs of these summer months again. And it just kind of feels like, you know, trying to figure out what it's trying to do right now. So, I mean, with that
[05:19:00] being said, I do have a little bit of long delta on in bonds. I'm hoping for a little bit of a pop there. Um, but outside of that, that's what's most interesting right now, Chris. Yeah, bonds really uh volatility here is
[05:19:13] noteworthy thing. I'm just I really wish I had those puts. Um 55. Yeah, puts puts up. It's a beautiful thing. But that the the curve doing what they're doing here, right? ZT is up. Uh yields are up a
[05:19:29] little bit today. What's the 210 spread doing right now? US10y, US2Y. Um that is that is up again today um to 4454%.
[05:19:45] upside. That's three days in a row of the 210 spread widening out. So the yield curve is now the steepest it's been since Friday, May 22nd. Uh several takeaways there, Errol. Does the market think that the Fed's doing the right
[05:19:59] thing or does the market see more inflation and growth coming? This is exactly kind of playing out what we talked about earlier in the week. If the doesn't hike rates, what happens at the long end of the curve? Yields go up.
[05:20:11] >> And that's we're seeing that play out in real time right now for what it's worth. I go back to September 24, we got two 50 we had two 25 basis point rate cuts from the Fed, 50 basis points total. And what happens thereafter?
[05:20:25] dollar sores, yields go through the roof, stocks rise. Why? Because the looser for longer. You're letting inflation breathe. You're letting growth breathe." We just got that again here this week.
[05:20:37] We went from a 100% chance of a September hike with a 5% chance of a second 25 basis point hike to killing all of that down to just 60%. So, policy happens to the long end of the curve? Long end of the curve gets blown out.
[05:20:53] the Fed cuts rates, should rates go down? Not necessarily. I got to say, if it feels like that's the game that we're playing sometimes uh we're waiting on. >> So ZN ZB, they're sitting near yearly
[05:21:09] lows. Volatility in the space is absolutely creeping back up. I know ago when you and I were talking. I never got filled on the ZN But for those folks who were trading it with the July 31st expir today, I hope
[05:21:25] what the 109 110 108 worked out like a charm. Sitting right at 108 right now. So if just for the record, if you're trading a when you get to your wings and start to move beyond your wings. We're at the 108
[05:21:41] on looking for who knows what's the Fed's going to do, could they hike? go up? Rates going to go down. Who cares? It's going to be violent either way. Just be directionally agnostic. just look for direction either way. That
[05:21:53] worked out brilliantly here. So, I'm cautious on the bonds right now. When I have my like little conspiracy Chris ideas and then they pan out, it leads me >> right? >> Uh but the reaction in the chain, Errol,
[05:22:09] is reflation perhaps reflation, asset prices going up. People see their dollars are losing purchasing power because inflation is sticking around for longer. So, they're buying things with the perception that it's going to retain
[05:22:22] Doesn't get much harder than that. It's really economics 101. I know that's not how the crowd usually approaches these things, but this is a simple this is a the reward? Are yields high enough? Are they low enough? What am I getting from
[05:22:35] my stocks? yada yada yada yada. >> Yeah. Uh it it's coming down to some of think it's easy to forget uh with all the volatility that I get. And I mean typically rise, right? And I think sometimes it's easy to kind of forget
[05:22:51] that's what emotions do. And I think that's sometimes why we get such think it makes people make irrational decisions. And I think, you know, sometimes larger players in the market need,
[05:23:04] sometimes. >> You know what's so fascinating about inflation, oil is not the place to play it because oil is nowhere near its yearly highs. And what do we see about ZB? It is right now slumping into fresh
[05:23:20] ZB? It is right now slumping into fresh yearly lows. The story is not about oil itself. The longer oil stays elevated, the longer the straight stays closed, the more inflation goes into the system. It's why you're seeing the refiners,
[05:23:32] Errol, the refiners, not the oil producers themselves, but it's the refiners who have the margins now that are doing so well in this environment. are doing so well in this environment. your Valero, your uh Philip uh Philip 66
[05:23:44] PSX for example, right? U Marathon Petroleum, can't ignore the fact that there is a macro pulse to what's happening right explanation from where I sit for why these things are happening. So, keeping
[05:23:59] that in mind, let's move off of bonds here real quick and let's get into gold and silver because you know what typically likes reflation? Gold and silver. If you told me that oil was going to be up near the weekly highs and
[05:24:13] uh up at the weekly highs and bond yields are going to be now sitting at yearly highs. I would think that gold would be doing a lot lot lot lot worse than this, Mr. Coleman. I mean I mean it it does kind of seem like gold is still
[05:24:28] sustaining based off of that you know rally that we've had a little bit earlier into the year which I think is really helping you know uh gold in the way. So I think it's going to be interesting if these metals come back
[05:24:42] into play on top of what we had already seen in the metals this year. >> Yes. And so you know one of the uh one of the things that was driving gold last year was central bank demand. Mhm. >> Um, according to the World Gold Council,
[05:24:57] significantly in the second quarter, reaching 289 tons, a fivefold increase on Q1's revised estimate of 57 tons and a record high for any second quarter any
[05:25:10] year ever. >> Jeez. So, you know, there's clearly a them. We know that because of what we've seen out of the Middle East and Asia. the biggest the ballast of this market
[05:25:22] of the gold market and the silver market remains in place. And so with this floor here, it does certainly feel like there's been a floor around 4,000 for about 5 weeks now. And we have now this gold buying data from the central banks
[05:25:35] a hawk. I mean, one of the least surprising things about the mark. What would surprise you more, Arrol? Gold back at 5,000 or the S&P at 8K?
[05:25:49] >> I think I got to play for I mean I already have my 8,000 calls. [laughter] the the corner, especially if we're looking at the S&P 500. I mean it looks like we could pop back to that level. I mean by next week. Not saying that's
[05:26:01] that's going to happen, but that's how um in reach it seems right now. Beyond to talk about what's going on in the the currency space. So, we're going to take currency space. So, we're going to take a J over to a J over to 6J right now
[05:26:14] where uh Errol, you know, they're intervening here and we've been talking intervening here and we've been talking intervention for some time. Um, Why is that not rolling over? I want you to go to 6J here, friend. So, now we're
[05:26:27] to go to 6J here, friend. So, now we're in 6J. Uh, slightly out of reach still month ago. We've been rolling forward with intervention type trades because we spot rate, but they have indeed intervened uh yesterday. They've
[05:26:41] the Ministry of Finance are working hand in hand. I've asked around the industry. I've heard from three sources that I know to be very very accurate on this rate checks from uh from the Treasury. So, there's intervention going on right
[05:26:55] the yen as a carry trade vehicle. So perhaps stunting some of the returns here in stocks today, but still important context right now. Uh do you chase this is the question that I saw earlier. No, we don't chase this up here
[05:27:08] We've seen the interventions. We've seen the interventions. If 6J were to fall back down towards like6261, dollar yen is back up near 1601 162. That's when you think about getting
[05:27:20] trying to line put a line of defense in the sand. But Errol, we're it there here. Uh you get the final thought though. What do you think of the across the board? >> Uh I'm curious to see how it plays out.
[05:27:34] territory of uncertainty right now given the way a lot of these other underlyings are performing such as the the indices, you know, bonds, uh and things like that. Uh but I mean, a stronger dollar is always going to help. So, I'll leave
[05:27:47] >> It does help, but the dollar's down because they're intervening. So, do you trust an intervention move lower in the dollar in DXY? I don't. I think that's a for now. We're going to take a brief break here on Tasty Live. We're coming
[05:27:59] back in about two minutes time. There's more great programming coming up next. one only. It's TP Tom Preston. For more live trading, stick around. See you live trading, stick around. See you later, Errol. Thanks, Chris.
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[05:33:06] everybody. Last day of July. I'm Tom Preston and uh let's see if we can get Preston and uh let's see if we can get trading here. Let's uh touch on a couple of things I've been watching closely here. Um the VIX I have loaded up here
[05:33:20] here. Um the VIX I have loaded up here down below the U 17 down six down to 1659. What is there to worry about the market? What is there to worry about the market? Um obviously nothing. SPX up 43 bucks
[05:33:34] today. Um you know while I'm at this let me do this really quickly. me do this really quickly. Um let me see if I could get loaded up. loaded up and see if I see any comments from you folks.
[05:33:50] from you folks. Oops. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. me see. [clears throat] H I'll worry about that later. All
[05:34:02] right. Actually, let me do it on my phone. I'll see if I can do it there. So, one of the things um that's interesting is and I wish I could show and I think I'm going to try to show this to you folks is the contrast
[05:34:17] between let me see where I am. Contrast between let me see where I am. Contrast between um bond volatility and uh VIX. So, if you look at something like uh TLT, let's see TLT, go to a chart
[05:34:32] and open up TLT in the chart. What you see is TLT is the ETF that tracks the see is TLT is the ETF that tracks the the 10 to 30year uh treasuries that is rising. Compare that to now, you know, take that
[05:34:46] as a snapshot in your head um to the VIX. attention to this top number. This is the VIX. This is sinking. What does that mean? Well, there's more excitement going on in the bond market right now
[05:35:01] than there is in the equity market, which is a little alarming. It's it's I'm not saying it's unusual cuz yeah, you do see that fairly often where there's a discrepancy uh between the bond and the the equity volatilities,
[05:35:16] but the bond volatility is actually creeping up pretty pretty quickly. Um, creeping up pretty pretty quickly. Um, and that could just be a warning sign maybe for equities. Maybe I'm just talking my position. I'm short some
[05:35:28] talking my position. I'm short some NASDAQ in here. Um, one of the things too is and I want to talk about some some real estate ETFs. Maybe do a trade in there. Um, go back to Well, we can stay in the charts. Uh, look at ZB. ZB
[05:35:44] the 30 years are getting crushed in here. Um, here. Um, the the the the way to think about this bonds prices go down, their yields go up. Um, in the 30 years, yeah, that's
[05:35:57] very important. They're down a buck today. The ZN, the 10 years are down 16 ticks, about half a point. So, roughly half as much as what the bonds dropping,
[05:36:10] and that's about right. But the 10 years are down two. Uh, means the 10-year yield is is going up. It's the highest it's been in in quite a while. That puts it's been in in quite a while. That puts puts a lot of pressure on um real estate
[05:36:23] rates are still kind of based off the 10 years and the higher they are, the harder it is for people to borrow money to buy a house. Let me do this real to buy a house. Let me do this real quick. Let me do a search Tasty Live.
[05:36:39] quick. Let me do a search Tasty Live. Tasty Live on YouTube because I want to see if anybody has any ideas or thoughts. And well that's ideas or thoughts. And well that's coming up. Uh anyway, so I want to look
[05:36:53] at on my watch list today. I've got a bunch of stuff. Um three of the symbol, three of the ETF, the real estate ETFs I was looking at. And so here's the idea. The rationale is as interest rates start to climb, people can't afford to buy the
[05:37:07] houses, real estate ETFs might start dropping. Okay, that's the basically as as much analysis as I do on this stuff. Um, looking at a couple of the three of
[05:37:19] Um, looking at a couple of the three of the big ones. Uh, VNQ is the Vanguard um, real estate ETF. IYR is I think it's the States maybe or Eyesshares X. No, XLR I think is the Eyesshares. No, this is State Street. Sorry, they say the
[05:37:33] names right here. Um, IYR is the is the Eyesshares real estate uh, fund. Uh, XLR is the State Street Fund. Looking at the options in these st in these things.
[05:37:45] Let's look at VNQ. Um the markets aren't awful. There's some decent open interest um at some of these Again, it's not like we're talking about the S&Ps, but it's VNQ. It's a it's a
[05:38:02] the S&Ps, but it's VNQ. It's a it's a little real estate ETF. Go into X uh what is it? XLR. XLR. Um, again, markets aren't aren't bad. Um, 10
[05:38:16] cents wide of the 10 cents wide of the 45 puts. Again, for a for a, you know, a 45 puts. Again, for a for a, you know, a not heavily traded ETF, go to 49 days. Yeah, this is almost zero open interest in these things. And the market's
[05:38:29] widened out as you go out to 49 days. What's the third one? IR. What's the third one? IR. Um, and so just bearish ideas in these things. the there's a fair amount of open interest in IYR. We might be able
[05:38:42] open interest in IYR. We might be able to get filled in in a spread in here. Um I don't know anybody want to look at a chart of IYR, you know, was rallying up, chart of IYR, you know, was rallying up, now it's down. Hardly a surprise. Um
[05:38:57] like I said, when the when the interest rates go up, it's just never a good sign for housing. And I've been bearish on housing for a while. Um, some of the individual names like Lar or Hognanian or KB Homes, things like that, they
[05:39:12] markets aren't great in them. That's why I look at these these ETFs, you know, again, they're a little bit better. So, let's go and see what we better. So, let's go and see what we could maybe do in here. Stocks at 105.
[05:39:26] I'm not even going to look at the skew. Skew be damned. Um, can I get some? Can Skew be damned. Um, can I get some? Can I sell the 108 1110? No, it's 2 point. No, it's I'm not getting enough credit for this. Um 16%
[05:39:41] actual volatility is fairly low. What if I pull this down to the 79? No. So, let's You know what? Let's do a put spread. put spread. So, 10 stocks at 10520. If I buy this,
[05:39:55] buy the 106es, sell the 105s, what am I getting for that? getting for that? 47. Okay, here's the deal. I mean, look, 47. Okay, here's the deal. I mean, look, it's a cheap bearish bet on IYR. That's
[05:40:07] these strikes, so maybe it'll get filled. 47 cents. Um, very not not a big filled. 47 cents. Um, very not not a big delta trade. Negative -10 deltas. Uh, P50 probability making half uh 64% probability making half the max profit
[05:40:23] about 53. So, about what? 27 bucks. I would take that absolutely. And it's generating at 22 cents of theta. Let me just explain a little bit. Um because I love this theoretical stuff. That's my expertise. Um
[05:40:38] expertise. Um the 106 puts, buying those um you know, you think, gee, I'm buying a debit spread. I should have uh negative theta. Yeah, that can be true. But when you're buying the out the money stuff, um the
[05:40:52] buying the out the money stuff, um the the the 106 puts, excuse me, the 106 the the 106 puts, excuse me, the 106 puts have an have an intrinsic value of what about 80 cents, um 81 cents, but the debit of the spread is only 47. So
[05:41:06] the debit of the spread is only 47. So the idea is that if if IrIr over the next 21 days that the spread will grow into the extrinsic the
[05:41:18] will grow into the extrinsic the intrinsic value of those 106 puts. So it intrinsic value of those 106 puts. So it should grow hopefully from 47 cents up to 81 cents. That's the idea. So that's why you're getting positive theta. Let's
[05:41:31] route this at 47. I give this a I give this about a 30 delta of getting filled. Oh jeez. 100% 100 100 delta. I should be more optimistic than that.
[05:41:43] Let's go um moving right along now. Oh, let's check this. Let's check the S&Ps. Do we want to do an S&P trade? Let me go into into um the live show if I can see your
[05:41:55] chats. My Wi-Fi is very slow here today. Um, what do you say we do? Another one of those silly little butterfly things.
[05:42:07] Stocks at, you know, up stock index is up 7480 42 bucks. I'm not optimistic about this. The reason, and I've said this before, when volatility is low, it Inflates the value of at the money butterflies, kills the premiums on short
[05:42:24] out of the money put spreads. If I buy these, buy one of these, sell two of these, and then buy one of these. Five points.
[05:42:36] Drag this down. 35cent credit. Look at that. Spoke too soon. Let's see if we can do this a little bigger. You know, I like to dangerously, but that's not the case. No, I don't want to go too far. Yeah, I
[05:42:51] know. I'm not getting it with this stuff. If I just keep it five points in this, let's do 30 cents. Let's do 3. Let's see if I can get 35 cents for it. Let's see if I can get 35 cents for it. 35 cents. Uh short the um 745 7455 7460
[05:43:09] um put spread as this package. Let's see if I get 35. Submit. Working. Working. if I get 35. Submit. Working. Working. Um next, let's go to the watch list. Um,
[05:43:22] Philip Morris. Um, gotta love cigarettes. The stocks I Um, gotta love cigarettes. The stocks I don't smoke. No, I never have. Um, and I don't nec you look, if you want to smoke, that's that's up to you. Um, but
[05:43:36] smoke, that's that's up to you. Um, but it's Philip Morris has been actually rallying I think a little bit recently before it collapsed. This was earnings and they got whacked here. So, this
[05:43:48] would be a contrarian trade. What's interesting about Philip Morris, and I can't couldn't remember if we had traded this as part of this halfh hour uh session has a 6.24
[05:44:00] um dividend yield. I And I real I'm sorry if I'm repeating this trade, but if we go into go into um Mo here,
[05:44:13] uh let's see. Could do it as kind of a wheel strategy, you know, if I wanted to. And I'm I guess some people sell the in the money about out of the money puts. I don't love being assigned on stuff. Um
[05:44:28] but the point is that if you were bullish on Philip Morris stock spreading is 6874 and between 68 69 um down let's say a
[05:44:40] point up a point. Yeah, the skew is pointed to the upside. Let's just see how much capital it requires. selling the 67 puts. The numbers are decent. 85%
[05:44:52] P50, $327. So, it's a theta. Not bad. But $1,200 of buying power, that's a little rich. Let's do the 65. Yeah, this is not Let's Let's try the 6866.
[05:45:11] Let's go out another uh see what we get in the different expiration. 28 days. Let's do this 28 days. No, let's go out to 35.
[05:45:27] And one of the nice things about the platform is it's easy to move this stuff platform is it's easy to move this stuff around. Um, you know, extend it out to a different expiration, change the strikes. I'm not getting much more
[05:45:40] strikes. I'm not getting much more credit going out extra weeks for this. not getting a third of the Let's pull this up. Let's pull this up to the 68 67
[05:45:54] this up. Let's pull this up to the 68 67 68 excuse me 6866 66 cents of uh credit 72% probability making half that. So about 35 bucks um ahead of expiration
[05:46:07] about 35 bucks um ahead of expiration generates 73 cents of theta for $134 of generates 73 cents of theta for $134 of buying power uh reduction or and is the buying power uh reduction or and is the max loss. So 1% of that or onetenth of
[05:46:19] 1% of that would be about 13. I'm collecting a a decent return on on it's a little tight but let's try it at 68 cents. Let's ruin send contrarian
[05:46:32] 68 cents. Let's ruin send contrarian trade. Next, one of the symbols that I've had fairly good luck with is GLD. GLD. Um,
[05:46:47] a decent IV rink, not bad, but GLD has really been noodling around. Hasn't been going anywhere for the past month. And I've been selling some short-term like 7-day iron condors. They've worked pretty well. Um the the you know uh 10 7
[05:47:04] to 10 days cuz I know I've been I've been selling them, taking them off. Um capturing a little bit of premium every time. I may just go to the well again on this. The volatility, you can see the chart in here. The volatility has been
[05:47:17] slinking down. That's what happens when um uh when the stock's not moving a whole lot. So GLD, let's see what we get for Let's see what we get for seven days. Let's just let's just see what we get.
[05:47:31] Let's just let's just see what we get. Markets are not bad. Let's go out to 10 days and see what we get. Yeah. No, let's go 7 days. And let's just use
[05:47:44] let's just use the expected move. This thing here, this brown bar, in case you're wondering, the brown bar here is this plus minus $8 from the current
[05:47:56] stock price. Let's put it out in the wings here. Let's do this and see what credit we get. Do I get a third of the width of the strike? 65. See, lo and width of the strike? 65. See, lo and behold, lo and behold, so 65 cents is
[05:48:09] about a third of the width of between 380 and 382. In other words, two points. Um 61% probability making half the max profit generates $5.33 a day. Theta not
[05:48:21] bad. Let's fire away. Review and send 65. Firing Phil. Take a fill. Um another 65. Firing Phil. Take a fill. Um another one that I was looking at is
[05:48:33] um well we could take a look at the VIX. It depends on which time we can take a look at the VIX. Um CocaCola or you let's look at Intel. Um, Intel, you know, go to the charts. Intel's been
[05:48:48] beaten up a little bit. Um, over the past uh, quarter, I guess, or past past uh, quarter, I guess, or past month. Um, rebounded a little bit. Do they have earnings? I think they had earnings semi-reently because there's
[05:49:01] nothing coming out anytime soon that I can see. Let me minimize this. This is a can see. Let me minimize this. This is a I have a trade loaded up here. Let's I have a trade loaded up here. Let's let's do
[05:49:19] maybe bullish on this stock. Let's see what the volatil or the Let's see what what the volatil or the Let's see what the skew looks like. 92. Let's minimize this. Let's go out to 35 days. 92 and a half. So 9 in between 92
[05:49:34] and 93. Down. Let's say two point. Let's get down. Yeah, down two points to the get down. Yeah, down two points to the 90 puts. Uh 795 up two bucks to the uh 90 puts. Uh 795 up two bucks to the uh 95 calls 865. Skew's pointed to the
[05:49:49] north. Skew is pointed to the north. Um let's just see. Let's just to start the process. If I were bullish on Intel, um selling this one point, this one point um short put spread generates a
[05:50:06] third of the way. is right 73 74 but it's too that's that's not enough and one of the one of the issues one of I understand if if if you want to preserve lot of risk that makes a lot of sense selling a onepoint put spread as a
[05:50:20] bullish trade great you know it's uh 30 cents max profit uh $70 of max risk if or you know somebody says well I'm not that bullish on it fine you know I I'll
[05:50:33] I'll keep the risk small the problem is it's going to take a while. As in that 30 cent, the thing's going to be worth 30 cents for a while. What's going to go down? It's going to 28, 25, 21. It's going to decay, decay, decay, and it's
[05:50:47] probably going to sit there at like, you know, 10 cents or something for a week. know, 10 cents or something for a week. So, it can be very hard to capture the profits relatively quickly on a short puts, on a narrow put spread like this.
[05:51:00] Let's pull this up where the where the strikes are actually strikes are actually um yeah it's in between this um um inside the expected move but okay you got to live dangerously sometimes. So
[05:51:15] got to live dangerously sometimes. So selling the 77 buy the 75s generates 65 credit. Let's let's look at the numbers on this. 77% probability of making half on this. 77% probability of making half of its max profit is about what 32 bucks
[05:51:28] of its max profit is about what 32 bucks versus $135 of of maximum risk um generates 90 cents of theta per day. Those are decent metrics. And if you Those are decent metrics. And if you were bullish on Intel, let's ship it and
[05:51:43] were bullish on Intel, let's ship it and see if it gets 65. see if it gets 65. Nothing done. Nothing done. Let's go to Nothing done. Nothing done. Let's go to uh what else do we have? Cisco
[05:51:56] Gold K. Let's go look at Coke KO. I thought I did a trade in here earlier, you know, back in one of these sessions. And I like to like to give everybody a little variety looking this stuff. Earnings are coming out in September.
[05:52:11] CocaCola has been, you know, had nice little rally, sold off a little bit. Um sold off a little bit. Um 63% IV rank,
[05:52:24] you know, the volatility is what's volatility doing in here. That's what I look at. It's come off a little bit. Not much. Not much. Little bit. So, it's still decent volatility. 22% V going out here. You know, it's
[05:52:40] it's borderline. It's borderline. Um but let's just take a look at the options and see which way it might be headed. [gasps] [gasps] 87 12 right here. So down down let's say
[05:52:53] 87 12 right here. So down down let's say two and a half bucks. The 85 puts are at two and a half bucks. The 85 puts are at 74 up 2 and 1/2 bucks is 90. The 90 74 up 2 and 1/2 bucks is 90. The 90 calls are at 90. So the skew is pointed
[05:53:05] to the upside. Um let's see what we get. If you're bullish on Coca-Cola, um I bet let's see now I'm not getting the credits for this. Let's pull it up here. 84.
[05:53:22] Let's push this out to a further expiration. 60. here with 35 days. Let's look at the regular. Let's look at the August
[05:53:35] weekly. Can I get something done in here? If I can get uh if I were bullish on CocaCola, maybe what's actually, you know what? What do you think about an iron condor and coke? What do you think?
[05:53:51] What do you think? Let's do markets are, you know, semi-tight here. So, let's go to the 65. Let's sell these
[05:54:03] So, let's go to the 65. Let's sell these by these. What do I get? 58 credit for a twopoint iron condor. Not bad. Not great, but not bad. Not great, but not great, but not bad. Not great, but not bad. Let's see. Um, and what I look at
[05:54:18] is keeping the option prices relatively the same. This is a little Let's see if we can get No, I'm not going to get it. Let's just Let's just route this. Let's see if I get filled. Um, generating a buck 56 of theta. small, you know,
[05:54:33] relatively small capital requirement. Oh, I have the strikes. No, the strikes are here. 9193 8385 cents and ship it and see what happens. Filled. Filled on Coke. Who knew? Let's
[05:54:49] go to the watch list again. And so, one of the things I've done a lot of cleaning up its expiration today. Um, right now I am battling with SpaceX. Let's see where we are here. I am short the 109 puts in here. I'm short the 107
[05:55:06] 109 put spread. So, this is noodling around. This always happens to me with SpaceX. I'm a perfect counter indicator for SpaceX. Um, so I'm going to be looking to buy this back. I sold that put spread for 60. So,
[05:55:20] I'm right there. I have a small loss. And what I'll do here, uh, instead of I'll show you exactly how I'm managing this. this. Um right now those nine those 109 puts
[05:55:35] Um right now those nine those 109 puts are 75 cents have 75 cents of intrinsic are 75 cents have 75 cents of intrinsic value. Okay. So if I buy this call here at let's say 110 or 115 I'm paying about 30 cents no more than that. I'm paying
[05:55:49] about 40 cents over. I don't want to do that. So what I'll probably do if if SpaceX is reliably below what does that mean? Well it's keeping my fingers crossed. If it's down below 109 and I'm very certain about getting hit, getting
[05:56:02] assigned on these short 109 puts, I'll just sell the stock ahead of the assignment on the short puts. Okay, so that's how I'm going to manage this. I'm going to watch this and if I can, you know, it it this thing can move around a
[05:56:16] lot, but I'm going to make a decision. It's 1:30 now. I'm going to I typically do this around 2 230 or even 2:45. I just deal with stuff. There's a lot of stuff that I'm working to close. Um, looking at ARM, ARM, I sold a call
[05:56:31] spread in there and I'm right on the edge of ARM. Um, came I was looking ugly. Now it's down. I'm making up a little bit of money short the 247 half 252 calls. That's what just keeping your fingers crossed and hanging onto a
[05:56:46] position will give you. Got killed in this MSFT rally. Uh, killed on the this MSFT rally. Uh, killed on the Amazon rally. killed on the Apple tank dropping. Let's go to the VIX. Let's see. Am I done in my SPX? Almost
[05:57:03] certainly not working. Nothing done. Nobody wants to play with old Tom Preston. Okay, fine. Let's go in the VIX. Um maybe I'm bullish on the on the VIX. If I'm thinking that the market's going to sell off at some point, the
[05:57:18] going to sell off at some point, the futures are trading at 181 1840 or so. futures are trading at 181 1840 or so. But if I sell this put spread 7.35 cents. I like it. Ship it. Ship it.
[05:57:31] Ship it. Filled. Build. So this is I'm sorry if I Filled. Build. So this is I'm sorry if I missed your questions, comments. Um
[05:57:44] up on my the screen here. Next time I will next next Monday, I promise. But do you have any questions, comments? Uh, it's tptastylive.com. recommendation. If you do this stuff, it's it's your call. And please, if you
[05:57:59] do decide to trade this stuff, don't take any more risk than you are take any more risk than you are comfortable with.
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[06:00:19] >> In the world of investing, a beast lurks between the numbers. sidelines, but others saddle up [music] and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for
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[06:01:04] >> I'm Jim Schultz. This is from Theory to Practice. Welcome to Show Tail. Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome to the Friday edition of what it is that we are trying to do. Welcome to the earnings plays main reversion edition of what it
[06:01:17] is that we are trying to do. Man, we came home to roost. Like, we thought we had him there for a second. Like, you guys thought you had a different Dr. J. No, no, no. You have the same crusty old stale Dr. J that you've had from the
[06:01:30] I'm glad that you are here. If you're watching over on the Tasty Live Network, YouTube right now because you can join the conversation and join the discussion and communicate with our brethren who is also who is or who are who could be uh
[06:01:45] also in the chat. You can celebrate if you're a bull today. Yeah, I think so. You can visit if you are a bear, but it will be a good time ahead by most. Hop into the chat. Questions, comments, stories, jokes, drop them in there. and
[06:01:58] I'll try to get to as many as I can right around the halfway mark of the show. I want to know, the Algo wants to know, Ben wants to know, everybody wants to know what is going on in your neck of the woods. So, Ben, bring us in to the
[06:02:13] market, man. E S&P is up 41 risk-free instrument also knows NASDAQ trading, this is an extremely extraordinarily high-risk product. You got the boomers up 300. You got the Russell 2000. Futures index down 11. The
[06:02:29] artist formerly known as the Russell 3000. You got bonds down a point. Wait a minute. Bonds are down a point. Hold everything. 108 on ZB and they're
[06:02:43] letting this happen. The administration's letting this happen. Ken Griffin is letting this happen. Like the powers that be are letting bonds the powers that be are letting bonds slide down to 108, almost 107.
[06:02:56] slide down to 108, almost 107. No, there's no way. This has got to be a bad quote feed or something. Let's look at the chart of bonds. I hadn't seen at the chart of bonds. I hadn't seen this all day, man. Look at that.
[06:03:08] ZB got all the way down to 10808. So, it is on the lows, man. This thing is on the lows. That's pretty crazy stuff. I mean, if you go back, hang on a second.
[06:03:20] Like, I was going to go in a different direction this morning, but uh we can't do it now. I got to see what's going on. So, if I go back to Let me just look. I'm no technician. That's pretty obvious. But I'm thinking this is not
[06:03:36] good. Like, I'm just thinking just thinking out loud. Stream of consciousness, right? You got to bounce up at 118. All is well in the world, right? the borrowing cost. I mean, the US uh US debt, the Treasury, blah blah
[06:03:50] up, but at least it's, you know, at least we can feel good about ourselves least we can feel good about ourselves with ZB at 118. You got bonds at 114. It's like, okay, we still got some room. You got bonds down around 109. I mean,
[06:04:02] this was the last time that, you know, DJT and crew kind of jumped and sprung into action and then boom, you got them right back up. But now, man, you're all the way back down below the previous low. Guys, guys, guys, I am clearly no
[06:04:19] low. Guys, guys, guys, I am clearly no technician, but I see lower lows. That's what I see. Now, you may see something different. I see lower lows. I have been reliably informed by all the technical traders on the internet. Johnny Pool's
[06:04:31] 47. Johnny Pool's 48. Johnny Pool's 49 even makes an appearance every once in a while. This is not supposed to be bullish. This is not supposed to be a positive chart pattern at all. So, man, I don't know what's coming next. You
[06:04:46] don't know what's coming next, but man, put something in the chat because maybe the algo knows. Maybe the algo can enlighten us as to where ZB is going next. I'm actually surprised that they let it get down to uh to 108. But uh but
[06:04:59] there's some ZB commentary for you. You got B or you got nodes, you got oil, you got UB 40, got gold, got silver, hump brothers, shifties. They're all getting smacked around a little bit. What I want to focus on here today is we need to
[06:05:11] talk about these butterflies. So, we need to have a very open and honest conversation [laughter] about these butterflies because none of them worked. looked like it was going to work last night didn't work, right? Like Amazon
[06:05:24] shot to the moon and never looked back. So, I'm like, "Okay, that's not a great think Reddit was next and I'm like, "All right, that really surprised me because again, right, if you're trying to like settle a debate or you're trying to like
[06:05:38] like make medical decisions, you're going to be not only in the subreddits, the subreddits." And I'm like, "All right, they've got something special over there that really you can't duplicate." But apparently the market
[06:05:51] felt differently. So Reddit down 37. I was like, "All right, that's pretty surprising." But Apple Apple's got to bring us home to roost. Now, I talked about this this morning on inside the trade where the thing about butterflies,
[06:06:04] [sighs] You got to get the direction right, but you also have to get the magnitude right. It's not enough to just get the direction right. You also have because of that, you can find yourself
[06:06:16] here where you actually get the direction right, but you overshoot your mark. You actually get the direction right, but you actually end up thing you know, you know, you were actually too right, right? Which is not
[06:06:29] a problem I typically have myself too often, but you you actually got the directional move too correct. And so because of that, you kind of slip outside that butterfly net. You kind of need that guy right in the center and it
[06:06:41] just it just didn't work, man. And so for Apple here, it's kind of sad, right? left, I mean, we're already 6 minutes into the show, so you're probably pretty dry. But if you happen to have any left, pour the last little bit onto the
[06:06:54] pavement because uh this butterfly is uh is done. Now, what's interesting about this butterfly is you can see this guy. Let's grab uh hey, let's grab a magenta. Happy magenta Friday to you guys. Uh this guy is fully in the money. So that
[06:07:09] assignment fees, which I don't really want to pay, especially when, you know, we may have to pay some bid spread differentials and some slippage to get that obviously can happen and usually does happen when you get all the way
[06:07:23] down to expiration. But I still think net net we're going to end up better off not doing assignment on each leg because each leg is $5 and we have three legs to a butterfly. So that's $15. So, the question is, can we close out of the
[06:07:37] trade for less than an extra $15? I think we probably can, and we're going minutes because when you have an in the money butterfly, you have to close the whole thing on the in the money butterfly. Uh because if you don't, then
[06:07:52] the money options and everything gets automatically exercised. Now, they're position on over the weekend or anything come Monday morning, but you just have to understand that, uh, if you keep this guy on, everything is going to
[06:08:05] everything is going to be assigned. And so, uh, all right. So, for Apple, we're want to point one thing out really quickly. If we look at like Amazon or Microsoft or even um, Reddit is also going to
[06:08:20] apply. I think we we can't really get that guy on the screen, but it's the same thing. Amazon, Microsoft, Reddit, and Visa actually. So, if you look at Amazon, right? This guy is also expiring today. You see, there is no mark price.
[06:08:35] It's out of the money, though. So, we can just let it go out to pastor. Microsoft, same thing. Expiring today. No mark price. Don't have to worry about it. It's gone. It's over. It's like it never even happened. Other than the fact
[06:08:47] in the air. I mean, I can feel the flames. Like, you guys maybe can smell the smoke. I can still feel the flames from all these trades. So, Amazon, Microsoft, uh you can see those guys are very different from Apple. If I minimize
[06:09:01] very different from Apple. If I minimize those and I go into Reddit, you can see Reddit's the same thing, right? Butterfly expires today, no mark price because it's fully out of the money, right? You've got the stock at
[06:09:13] 140 and our our lowest strike is 182 and a half. It ain't coming back like like it's over. I mean, probabilistically, there is a chance, but there is not really a chance. And so, Reddit is uh is over and done with, but then Visa, it's
[06:09:29] did earlier in the week. I think this may have been a Monday or Tuesday trade. Oh, you actually have a couple markers right there, which is interesting. But this guy's over and done with, too. This guy's not coming back. And so, all those
[06:09:42] trades, Visa, Reddit, Microsoft, Amazon, those guys can all just uh float off into the ether. If I look at the change though, we did this trade on uh was it Monday. 7:28. Hold on. Let's do some backwards
[06:09:56] 7:28. Hold on. Let's do some backwards calendar math live on the show. Uh no, that's Tuesday actually, I think. Give or take a couple days. Uh yeah, I'm pretty sure that's Tuesday. I'm about a 65 delta on Tuesday there. So, still
[06:10:08] my favorite, but it has its own set of gimmies, right? I mean, you know, it's gimmies and gotchas. Like, don't ever let anyone tell you differently. There is no point of optimization. There is no optimal trade. It's all gimmies and
[06:10:22] gotchas. Now, there may be something that might be optimal for you, but I don't know that we can ever get to a point of universal optimality. Like, I can't say like a 20 delta short put is the optimal strike put. It's impossible
[06:10:34] [clears throat] too unique, right? You have your own risk tolerance. You have know, schedule. You have your own whatever. Like, you fill in the blank. Account size, skill, uh, skill set. Like, all these things need to come into
[06:10:46] play. And so it's impossible or nearly impossible to say writ large blanket statement your 28 delta put. That's your optimal put. I'm never comfortable uh gotchas, man. It's gimmies and gotchas. Now, you may look at a certain put or a
[06:11:02] strike or a strategy or whatever. And you like the gimmies more than the gotchas you have to absorb, right? That's kind of the destination we're all gimmies and the gotchas and you're like, "All right, I like these gimmies and I'm
[06:11:16] signing up for. I'm going to go for it." Or you look at another trade and you're and I like those gotas because of X, Y, and Z or whatever. The gimmies are not uh they're not enough to make up for the gotchas." That's the type of analysis
[06:11:29] that, you know, hopefully uh helps you guys out a little bit too because I really do think it's gimmies and gotchas, man. Always uh always and forever. So, uh so yeah. So, Amazon, Microsoft,
[06:11:42] Reddit, Visa, all going to be gone. But let's go back to Apple because we do need to close this guy. And I see you guys in the chat, man. I see you guys. Look at Jim is in the house. Griffin Jones. Uh Ryan is in the house. iPod
[06:11:56] Touch is in the house, man. What is going on? It's been a minute there. iPod Touch, man. Thank you so much for popping in, guys. iPod Touch is here. I mean, that means iPod iPod, tell us, man. when is the next event horizon
[06:12:11] couple days ago. You know, a little seven, eight, 900 points on the NASDAQ to the downside. I mean, that'll wake up the old sinuses like that'll clear the old sinuses pretty quickly. Uh but let us know what's coming on down the shoots
[06:12:23] always told me we don't crash from alltime highs. Well, we're not at alltime highs anymore. I mean, NASDAQ, we're what, 10% off of alltime highs, 11% off of alltime highs. Even S&Ps are off by what, 5%, 4%, whatever. So, let
[06:12:36] us know, man, cuz we need to know. But we are just the common man, right? Us peasants and plebes, we need help. We need lots and lots of help. And so, uh, okay, so for Apple though, I'm going to try to close it all together and let's
[06:12:48] just see what happens. It should be about zero. I may have to pay, uh, yeah, get a credit for closing this. That's that's just that's an illusion. Like, you guys it's not going to happen. There's no way they're going to give me
[06:13:02] not even two cents. Here, I'll try two cents. I'll lock it down at 2 cents. don't think it's impossible because there is still what an hour 15 left. But there is still what an hour 15 left. But Apple's so far out of the money.
[06:13:16] don't know that I want to stake my career to this. Uh, [laughter] it's only five points out of the money. That's only a one and a half% move. I mean, Apple could rally five points going into the close. So, we actually might get we
[06:13:30] not impossible. I think we're going to have to close this for like a one penny debit, actually. But we might get we might get a couple cents. Yeah. See, we notice what's happening right now. Like the mark price is actually it look it it
[06:13:45] leads you to believe that it's more than that, right? It leads you to believe whoever it is, it's leading us to believe that we should be able to get more than 2 cents or 5 cents or whatever. Well, it ain't happening. Like
[06:13:59] again, you know, in the textbook, maybe in the ivory tower, maybe. But in theory, it ain't happening. In theory is a nogo. So, we need to go from theory to
[06:14:12] practice and kind of see what's what. So, let's see here. 2 cents. Uh, see, now it's 17 cents. It's just it's all made up, man. All of it. Every let's try a one penny debit. I think we'll get filled for a one penny debit.
[06:14:28] Oh, no. They're going to do that to me. They kicked it back. Oh man, they kicked it back to me. Oh man, they're going to make me. This is Oh no, they're going to
[06:14:40] Now I got to do crazy stuff to get out Hold on. Hold on. Did it get cancelceled right away? It did, right? Ah, we got penny debit. I'm not surprised by that. That's essentially what I thought would
[06:14:54] happen. So, we ended up paying one extra penny off of max loss. So again, just to give you guys like the full scorecard now that it's over, that's a much better scenario than $15 in assignment fees in my opinion, right? $15 would be 15
[06:15:07] cents. And so we paid an extra 1 cent whereas you go in for assignment fees, it'd be an extra 15 cents. And so net I think we're 14 cents ahead. And so Apple is uh is over and uh and done with. We talked about the other butterflies. Uh
[06:15:20] let's talk about MNQ here for a minute. MNQ MNQ man once again the DNS once again right we on this show we had a little situational awareness now others in the
[06:15:37] financial space sometimes they don't have as much situational awareness even if their name might imply they should have all the situational awareness we actually had a wee little bit of situational awareness and we were able
[06:15:50] to DNS here on the MNQ position and as a result we are in a decent decent spot on the show over and over again situational awareness but we did exercise a little bit and as a result our MNQ position I mean
[06:16:08] I didn't think we were going to Bonefish tonight but apparently we are well actually let me rephrase I knew we were going to Bonefish tonight didn't think we were going to Bonefish tonight but apparently I mean the bang bang is
[06:16:20] calling my name and like it is calling out to me. And so Bonefish is on tap, out to me. And so Bonefish is on tap, MNQ, the DNS, and this is uh this is how we do it. And then the rest of the trades, I mean, there isn't really
[06:16:34] attention. I don't think now it may look like there should be some things that be looking on down the shoots, and if like, "Wait a minute, Jim. What are you doing? That Amazon trade, that thing is
[06:16:46] about Amazon. You might be going on down the shoot "Yeah, don't worry about Microsoft. We already talked about Microsoft." You "Jim, what about Netflix?" "Yeah, don't worry about Netflix." Doesn't matter. Or
[06:16:59] Snapchat?" Well, we should definitely be worried about Snapchat because like Penelope's college fund, it's hitched to Snapchat. Amelia's college fund, it's also hitched to Snapchat. Eli doesn't have a college fund because I kind of
[06:17:13] think he's going to run just an allcash business. I kind of have a feeling he's going to be doing some things that he's not really going to be on the grid. I think [laughter] I have a feeling we're going to hear
[06:17:25] about him at some point in the future in ways that a parent maybe doesn't want to do some great great things. Uh but it's going to be more or less under the him necessarily. He's going to learn his uh his smarts on the streets. And then
[06:17:40] thinking, Jim, what about SpaceX? Don't worry about SpaceX. It's fine. again P&L you might be thinking Jim how could it not mean anything it shows you where mean sort of if it's a trade you have not adjusted then yes it does show you
[06:17:55] position but sometimes when you make adjustments and such it doesn't always show you where you are over the life of the position now when you group by order me when you group by the Allison change like we've done up here uh then it does
[06:18:08] a much better job but even still even at that we've talked about this a million people finding the and finding the network. Welcome aboard. I'm glad that stick around. The P&L Open doesn't really mean anything because as an
[06:18:23] really mean anything because as an active winner manager, I don't really already out there. As an active winner manager, as a premium seller, right, I my winners. Now, I'm not super crazy, right? Like, I'm not picking up nickels
[06:18:38] sometimes they're dimes, sometimes they're quarters. Like, we mix it up a on to the winning trades super long. And working, we take them off. When the trades are working, like we're done with
[06:18:50] to be the losing trades that we tend to, you know, kind of keep in the position or keep in the portfolio, I should say, for at least some length of time. Now, the ground with me." I mean, that's kind of my default setting, but it may not be
[06:19:02] it comes to just thinking about the dynamic between the winners and the the piano opens are going to be significantly uh larger. And not to mention, I love the penal open bros, man. Like, I love everybody. And so, you
[06:19:15] guys are welcome to the show, and I just appreciate the eyeballs and the uh the heartbeats. And so, all right, let's uh I mean, I think, yeah, this is it. I don't really want to do any new trades because um the portfolio is already kind
[06:19:27] of bursting at the seams a little bit here. Come time Monday, you know, Amazon will float off into the ether. Uh Apple is already obviously gone. Microsoft will float off into the ether. Reddit will float off into the ether. Visa will
[06:19:40] float off into the ether and so we're going to be in a decent spot come Monday to kind of deploy some new positions and and do um and use some more capital. Uh TLT, was this a bullish trade or a bearish? Yeah, it's a bullish trade. Ah,
[06:19:54] interesting. Okay, so you know what I'm going to do? Actually, I am going to do one thing. I'm glad I pulled up TLT because I was just kind of looking at like, "All right, is there something here that requires my attention?" And I
[06:20:07] think there might be. So if you look at the short option on TLT, cents. It's currently marking for 5 cents. So just the short option of the diagonal spread, it's essentially done all that we have asked it to do. Like
[06:20:21] option to do at this point. We can make another 5 cents on that portion of the trade. That's it. So again, you have to make up your own mind. You have to make what to do. I would never even begin to try to tell you what to do. When I look
[06:20:35] make here. So, I'm like, man, let's just close this thing down. Let's close this let's go ahead and move on. Now, what I do beyond that point, maybe we sell leave the long call for just a minute. Uh because we have so much time in that
[06:20:50] September cycle. Like, if I go to the September cycle with 49 days to go, you can see there's so much time left. And so, right now, I mean, you know, I may want to get premium on against this TLT long call pretty quickly, like early
[06:21:04] going to close out of the short call and doing, man. I want to see what you guys are doing in the chat and uh filled at 6 cents. Actually, we paid a little extra for that guy just to get
[06:21:18] out on the offer. So, now we have a long call in TLT and it's just out there flapping in the wind, man. No premium against it to protect it from anything. And uh yeah, so let's go ahead. Let's see where you guys are at. Man, I
[06:21:32] appreciate you guys. Look at you guys in the house, man. You guys are doing it. the house, man. You guys are doing it. Putting in work. And so, uh, yes, yes, yes. Brandon 1419. Dang, Dr. J, the number of positions is running hot. What
[06:21:47] is this? The Liz and Denny show. Yeah. RIP, man. RIP. Poor. If you got some banana, you should be on round two. Possibly round three by now. Right. Pour comrades. Please, dude. I mean, I would. If I wasn't at work right now, I 100%
[06:22:01] would. But you guys don't know what's in here, right? You think it's water? It could be water. I'll leave that to your imagination. And so, uh, let me see if I can surprise and delight somebody. Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Oh,
[06:22:13] from the numbers. My man Neil. What's going on there, Neil? Appreciate you, my friend. Hey, Dr. J. I got beaten with a Roblox 45 put after a 30% drop, but 21 days to go. There's no liquid. No liquidity. No role or exit assignment.
[06:22:28] assignment. or would you manage it differently? Interested in your thoughts. Okay. Well, let me just I'm not exactly sure. Um it looks like a there, which I mean, hey, I've been there. I mean, I'm there live on the
[06:22:41] there with you. You've got a 45 put. Yeah. So, this guy's 10 points in the money now. Yeah. So, you know, you got 21 days to go. Okay. So, a couple of thoughts. So, number one, if you just roll out the 45 short put from August to
[06:22:55] up not very much. Maybe a little bit. Yeah. 60 credit, which may not feel like much, and it really isn't that much in the absolute uh sense of it, but it's only a $35 stock now, $40 stock. So, it's also not totally insignificant. So,
[06:23:09] this is, you know, what I always like to figure out before I get into a short put. I want to know what type of trade is this because again, as we've said on the show a million times, one of the most redemptive qualities of a short put
[06:23:23] is the simple fact that if it comes down to it, you just take the shares. Like if the shares, I'm going to take the stock and I'm going to be done with it. And by the family. Like it is part of the family. It is one with me. And so you
[06:23:36] need to decide, are you going to do that or is this more of like, hey, I'm taking close it, you know, at whatever kind of makes sense. Whether that's 3x of credit credit received, or maybe it's gone
[06:23:50] with this trade now. I just want to move on. That's totally fine. But you have to decide which pathway forward through the forest do you want to go down almost always with indexes I'm gonna choose you
[06:24:03] can put it in the ground with me with an individual stock I still probably typically default to that because you still have positive trajectory of the you know of the marketplace over time you've got growth
[06:24:16] you've got innovation you've got the efficiencies like it's all there uh but trickier because you're going to have a lot more losers right that you know the and not to put all my chickens in the basket that the market will always come
[06:24:29] back, but if history is any guide, it's not a terrible bet to make right now. It bear propagandists are right, like it's going to be by the market close today, like I got it like 100%. But individual stocks is a little bit different because
[06:24:41] there's a lot more a lot more losers. So, at this point, Neil, I think the the number one thing that you need to figure out is how am I categorizing this trade about this trade in my mind? And then that will help you kind of decide what
[06:24:55] really think you can sell too much premium against it right now because it'll be too far in the hole. Like you'll be way underneath your basis. So I would I would rather I would either rather or rather either
[06:25:09] whichever way you want to do it. Take the shares. Just leave the current take the shares. That's fine. That gives you static upside. That's totally fine. or roll the put out to September right now and pick up your 60cent credit and
[06:25:22] stock anyway, but you got a little extra extrinsic value to kind of, you know, pat around the edges. Uh it's really just those two options if you want to close it. That's what I would do. Hopefully that helps a little bit. Uh
[06:25:36] but uh but I appreciate you. Uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see if I go ahead and uh let's go to the beginning. We go to the beginning now. I think we do. way back to the beginning. Grumpy Mike is here. What is up there, Grumpy Mike?
[06:25:50] I appreciate you, my friend. I think there was a TP comment holdover for the TP Amoose Bouch uh to kick off my show, which is no longer an Moose Bouch. I the main dish and the and and the dessert. And I'm not sure what I am. I
[06:26:04] sometimes have afterwards. Maybe the Cuban coffee. We learned about that recently. Thank you, Ben, for bringing that to my attention. Uh Ash Finn is in Ashan? Or Denu is here. What is up, my friend? I hope you have a great weekend.
[06:26:17] Yeah, we got uh Oh, yeah. Tomorrow morning, tomorrow morning, my kids, well, my two girls uh Penelopey and Amelia are are are starring in a Robin Hood play. And so, it's not a real big deal. Like, it's
[06:26:31] backyards uh cuz they want to be outside so they can do a bunch of sword fighting can't do that inside. I mean, I think you probably could. Uh, but yeah, they're starring in Robin Hood and uh I think I want to say Penelope is made
[06:26:45] think I want to say Penelope is made Marion and Amelia might be like I think Amelia is like young Maid Marion. And so the way they set it up is like I think Penelope is made Marian. Uh if that's from Robin Hood like help me out here.
[06:26:57] Like I could be mixing up my childhood fairy tales or whatever you call those. Uh and I think Amelia is young made Marian. So that is an interesting little or something. Uh but yeah, that's tomorrow morning. That's going to be a
[06:27:09] There's nothing like standing outside in the backyard in August in St. Petersburg, Florida to enjoy not only this play, but any and all mosquitoes
[06:27:21] all be there. Every single one will be present. Uh Ashman, Dr. Jim, let's go. What's Oh, I already got to that. Thank you, Ash. And thank you, Ordenu. Samuel, stock again. Of course. I guess those pharmaceutical investments are pay are
[06:27:36] finally paying off. I guess they are. Uh, I guess they are. Samuel goes on to Windows guy." I am. But let's be honest, you've got an iPhone like every respectable boomer and iPads for the kids. Deep down, you've been team Apple
[06:27:49] all along. Well, maybe so, because once they get you in the ecosystem, you can't escape. There is no escape. It's like being in a casino, right? Like, you done that on purpose. But I do I will take issue with one thing you've said,
[06:28:02] respectable boomer. See, that's where you're wrong. because every respectable Blackberries. Like they're still doing Blackberries, man. And they're they're they're uh they're holding them strong like 100%. And so, uh so yeah, so I
[06:28:17] think he missed the mark a little bit, but I am kind of team crossover between uh Windows and uh and Apple. Uh let's see. Point B Doc really said, "Let me turn my B minus humor into F for the plot today." We love the chaos, Dr. J,
[06:28:31] to B minor status tomorrow. I will try, but tomorrow's a Saturday, so we get an Monday, but I wouldn't necessarily hold your breath. Wolf Wolf is in the house. moves today. Have a great weekend. I don't know, man. You know, we I we
[06:28:45] traded Connorly early and then we got me and then he broke his wrist like insane. It's crazy. And so, I don't know what they're going to do now. And I'm could, you know,
[06:28:58] Trevor Story is hurt and, you know, you got Jim Schultz and you got, you know, Tony Batista playing short stop and so that's not amazing. And so from that standpoint, you know, we could definitely use a little bit of help, but
[06:29:11] squad we got. Like I mean, I wasn't expecting very much and then they rattle we're three, three and a half back in the Yankees uh for second place in the division. Like that's just insane. And so I kind of say we just run it with who
[06:29:24] any of the major pieces go away. Like everybody wants to trade Jiren Durant some troubles and whatnot, but I don't know that there's anybody in the entire Like he literally gives it everything that he's got every single day. And so
[06:29:40] keep him, man. Like yeah, you got to deal with some stuff, you know, around the edges, but I mean that's the case with everybody. And so uh so but we'll Golfer in the house in for the ALG. Hope everyone has a great weekend. Thank you,
[06:29:52] Doc, man. Thank you, my friend. Thank you so much for being here. Ryan is in the house. What is going on? BBB Fine is here. Hey, Dr. Jim, the earnings gods are kicking our behind. This is a family show. And uh yes, they are my friend.
[06:30:05] Yes, they are. But again, you know, with the butterflies, you take your shot. If take your shot. If it doesn't work, then you just look for look for something else. And don't forget, like, you know, the earnings trades are fun and it's
[06:30:17] bit profitable in the end. It might not be profitable in the end. I mean, whatever. But it should never be the foundation. It should never be the core foundation of what you're trying to accomplish. Not in my opinion at least.
[06:30:29] It's whatever. And you know, we all have great earnings trades and poor earnings be the bread and butter, right? It should never be the peanut butter and oatmeal. It should certainly not be the tuna fish and applesauce of what we are
[06:30:43] Griffin Jones in the house. Crowd watching my short put vertical turn green. Do I not have the same trade on? I think I should. Right. Yeah. Look at this Griffin Jones. We have the same trade. I think similar trade maybe. Uh I
[06:30:57] that you've done your analysis on. I've got my trade that I've done my analysis on. The fact that they happen to coincide is pure happen stance, but uh Crowd Strike here uh being down a few cents. Uh yeah, I mean I I'm pretty
[06:31:11] happy that we're green now and uh and that is uh that is good. Uh oh, Sam says, "Doc, single stock futures for the micro futures. added an X to the big dogs. So X Apple, X Meta, etc. For the mini futures, they added an S, S Amazon,
[06:31:26] department ran out of creativity. Yeah, maybe. So maybe they only have so much kind of borrow the base from the the regular ticker. I haven't even looked at the single stock futures. Um I don't think you can just do maybe it's a
[06:31:40] forward slash. Like I can't do Xapple, right? I mean there's nothing. And if I do like X meta, nothing. And if I do like forward slashX meta,
[06:31:53] nothing. Right. So, how do I find these quotes for these single stock futures? trade them just like everybody else. But I'm actually I'm before I even trade what the markets are like because I kind of think that the markets could be
[06:32:08] really really bad in there. Like really bad in there. And so it's going to be very very uh very interesting. And so, uh, but let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Uh, where we at? Where we at? Uh, PE Leonard is in the house. Word is
[06:32:22] answer, Doc. Covered calls. Pros and cons of using weeklies over monthlies. Great question. So, if you are dealing with like the creme to the creme of matters too much. I mean, just understand that with weeklies, you're
[06:32:36] be kind of on the spot a lot more regularly with the trade in terms of management and you know buying back the short call or rolling out the short call or whatever. Whereas when you do monthly it's a lot more of a lz fair kind of
[06:32:49] obviously kind of nice when it comes to if you really want this to be more handsoff. Um, so that would be the main thing that I would say when it comes to uh, you know, the liquidity and you're not dealing with the creme de la creme
[06:33:03] I'm going to say you're going to want to do monthlies a lot more than weeklies. matter. The B spread differentials are going to be much much tighter. And so, yeah, I would I would opt for monthlies. When in doubt, uh, you know, go to the
[06:33:17] monthly, but uh, but I think with a super strong liquidity, I don't know it's going to matter too much. Uh um so let's see where we at. Where we at? Uh oh. Uh point B. My Palanteer strangle is basically a straddle now and
[06:33:32] reset the strikes and collect credit before the Ivy ramps up or hold through and let it ride the move. What's your call? Honestly, man, I don't like either you've got a trade if you have an undefined risk trade on that you know
[06:33:46] has been giving you fits and it's already a loser and you've already made whatever and it's just beating you to this point taking that trade into this point taking that trade into earnings in my opinion is asking for a
[06:33:58] that because I'm like all right man this could be a disaster where right now it's manageable it stings don't get me wrong but it's manageable well yeah if you get going to look like a genius and you're going to be like yeah why do they not
[06:34:10] have my statue erected in downtown Manhattan. It's a travesty. It is a travesty to trade it all across the world. That's true. But what if you're wrong? If you're wrong, now all of a sudden they should take your mouse away.
[06:34:24] your trackpad pad away, right? And you can't even navigate on the screen anymore. And so I don't really love that trade. I feel like there are two eggs in one basket. Personally, uh Sergio's in the house. What's going
[06:34:36] on there, Sergio? Appreciate you, my friend. Uh, oh yeah, stock price is 122, don't I don't like holding it into But if you want to if you want to let it ride, then let it ride. As long again, I
[06:34:49] times per show. As long as you know what you're signing up for, it's your call, right? You are the judge. You are the jury. You are the executioner. PE call, do you always let it expire? Do you buy it back for a buck or two and
[06:35:02] put on another one for another week or month? Yeah, great question. And so this cover call and it's like an investment style cover call, so this is something I longer amount of time, then that's going to be something where I'm not going to
[06:35:15] manage at 21 days to go. I'm not going to pull it off at 50% of max profit. I'm probably going to, you know, be buying back the short call when it's basically run pretty dry in terms of the extrinsic value. So once the exttrinsic value gets
[06:35:29] down to, you know, like if I sell a call for $2, let's say, and the extrinsic value drops to 3040, I don't know, man, there's not much reason to hold that anymore in my opinion. And so typically, if I had to give you like a hard, it's
[06:35:43] not even like a hard rule. I'll give you like a soft rule. Once it clears like 75%. Uh, I'm very very interested in taking for longer, of course. I mean, some people like to let it go all the way and
[06:35:56] no commissions and whatever. And that's fine. But there's going to be a lot of things change, man. So, it's like, you know, the stock's moving around, right? It's moving around. You're picking up your decay, whatever. It dips, you get a
[06:36:09] nice opportunity where you're like, man, I can take this off for 77% of max profit. Maybe I should do that. Maybe you should, right? I mean, you take that stock, which is what you would have had anyway if you This is kind of an
[06:36:21] investment style cover call. and you get to run that guy clean, unfiltered delta to the upside. I kind of like that trade personally. Uh I don't really like trying to get every last penny out of a covered call or the short call portion
[06:36:34] of a uh of a covered call. It actually irks me when people refer to So here's many, but I have a couple. It really irks me when people when they when they refer to a covered call, they're only
[06:36:48] talking about the short call. That really really really like really bothers me because the covered call is the entire strategy. The covered call is the shares too. Like you can't say I'm going to take out this covered call and then
[06:37:01] just buy back the short call. It's like no, you still have the shares. That's understand what they mean but in this world that we we live in especially I of a stickler for like terminology and I'm a bit of a stickler for like you
[06:37:16] know uh uh correctly labeling certain things. Not myself. I most certainly do things. Not myself. I most certainly do not.
[06:37:56] remember engineering the trade man pour out a little for engineering the trade man like yeah that was the most dangerous 45 minutes of the day I mean I've got the right song for that line but uh but yeah uh man those are some
[06:38:09] good times uh Griffin Jones doc question NQ riff for 90 seconds on the plus or minus which I believe you mean to be the guineies and the gotchas of holding a long contract and rolling it. Okay. So, I think what you mean is you just want
[06:38:25] to have perpetual upside exposure, right? I think that's what you mean. I problem with that because a lot of times what people will do whether it's you said NQ, right? So, NQE, whatever, right? People want they want perpetual
[06:38:38] ways that you could achieve that. You can buy shares, you could sell puts, you can buy futures. they're all going to in a different way, of course, but they're going to give you that upside
[06:38:50] exposure. Well, some traders are going to want to keep that on all the time. roll that contract and that becomes kind of their core position. I have no problem with that whatsoever. Uh, it's not usually what I do myself. I like to
[06:39:03] positions, but there are certainly things that I might hold for weeks or months on end as I wait for them to come back, of course. Uh, but but some traders like to hold things for many, many months and many, many quarters. And
[06:39:15] rolling along indefinitely. And maybe you're playing it as clean delta to the upside. Maybe that's like the long delta pillar of your portfolio. Maybe you're could do which I know that you know
[06:39:28] mean I I have no issue with that whatsoever. You know, there aren't really too many cons other than the fact that you have to roll it every quarter. quarterly expirations. So, you know, it's not as simple as like just holding
[06:39:41] shares. Like if I wanted to have NASDAQ exposure, I could buy QQQ shares, right? Like I can quite literally stuff them in the stock drawer and they'll still be there. They're not going to expire. Like it's not like a December, March, June,
[06:39:55] still going to be there. They're just like a going concern for all the time that the company remains a going concern or the index remains uh a group and collection of going concerns. And so um yeah, I really have no problem with that
[06:40:08] whatsoever. Uh Weiss is in the house. What is going morale improves. I think you're right. I think you're right. Great movie, by the seen Whiplash with uh, you know, the State Farm or the not not State Farm,
[06:40:23] his name is, right? I mean, he's a great actor, man. Like, he is like, is he underrated? I think he might be criminally underrated. Like, he is Teller was in there, too, and he's he's always great. Uh, but uh the guy's name
[06:40:39] is um it's JK something, right? JK something. My my boy JK something. I but that's what we're gonna go with. Ah, Ben. JK Simmons. Yes, thank you. Thank you. Okay, so I was I was pretty close. Yeah, JK Simmons. And so very very
[06:40:53] opinion. So if you haven't seen Whiplash, then go check it out this It's kind of intense. Like you think it's a movie about drums? Uh yeah, something Simmons. Same thing. Yeah, that's funny.
[06:41:07] Yeah, that's true. That's really really funny. Uh it's about a lot more than drums. I'll just I'll say that. It's a It's a good movie. And so, uh Ranch is the for the algo, man. I appreciate that. Uh Vicky Zags, how about that
[06:41:23] crapple crapple? Uh that might be an inside deal that I'm on the outside of. Uh Ryan LP is here. What is up, DMZ is here? What is up, Ash? The only correct correct. It's never been more correct. Look at Jared Kramer in the house. Happy
[06:41:37] Friday and end of month. Uh Dr. Jay, I got to go in a second. SPX is currently It's currently a whole seven points higher than we opened in July. Green month indeed. Bring us that B minus humor and some ideas for the the BFUs
[06:41:51] for the weekend. No, no, it's BEu for the weekend. And I got nothing, man. I'm muster some more up over the weekend, but I'm totally out right now. I gave man, if I can ever help you guys in any way, please shoot me an email. I'm J
[06:42:05] or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I would love to hear from tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with trading the charts. In the them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys on Monday.
[06:42:29] We built Tasty Trades web platform for today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. research with fundamentals, endless forecasts, and more. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with hundreds of indicators. Track your
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[06:43:18] In the world of investing, a beast lurks between the numbers. Some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up.
[06:45:39] it seems dull, boring. Nothing happened. We're stuck. And we've been stuck for We're stuck. And we've been stuck for months in the ES range. And uh we're stuck when this war is it on is it off changes daily. And this week has also
[06:45:56] been basically both sides of the picture because we had this glorious plunge Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and Wednesday it stopped. Wednesday at the close that was it. And we had an enormous bounce yesterday and a total
[06:46:12] roller coaster today. It's been really exasperating because we had this exasperating because we had this explosive move after the open which for no particular reason completely collapsed and then we recovered half of
[06:46:27] out. So, um, I recounted this morning about good stuff and had to reenter them at worst prices. Um, and I got to tell you,
[06:46:40] after the shell shock of yesterday and today, I'm going into this weekend light, light, light light. I'd rather just kind of relax this weekend and not ring my hands about, you know, another taco or some craziness on Monday. And um
[06:46:57] hear me and will crunch the market on Monday based on this. But I'm sorry market gods, that's what I'm going to do. I'm I'm ending this week on the very do. I'm I'm ending this week on the very light side. But having said that doesn't
[06:47:10] to you. So let's do that and let's kind of catch up with some of this mayhem now of catch up with some of this mayhem now that the earning season is behind us and we're just going to get the stragglers at this point. Uh here's the ES. It
[06:47:24] cannot make up its mind. We have been in this for all of May, all of June, and this for all of May, all of June, and all of July now and ain't going nowhere. Uh, it's just been grinding around with no rhyme or reason. And of course,
[06:47:36] within each of those bars is its own little micro drama. But, um, yeah, net little micro drama. But, um, yeah, net net the net change from, uh, May 14 to net the net change from, uh, May 14 to right now, zilch, I haven't budged.
[06:47:51] uh IWM is kind of the same story. Although ever so gently, you can just kind of see this slow deterioration, a little bit lower lows, a little bit lower highs over the course of time. Um this trend line, you know, it tried to
[06:48:05] find support day after day, but the damage was done. It sort of slipped past that. So everything's just kind of in drift mode right now. And we're in the final 42 minutes of the trading month at this point. And who knows what weirdness
[06:48:18] of the month. Um but uh it's been a just today alone has been a little bit of a peculiar day. Now, as far as the market, the the one
[06:48:31] sector that's been everyone's attention is is is semiconductors/memory. Many of you have probably read the tale of, if I get the name right, Leopold
[06:48:43] Ashenbrer, I think that's close. uh a young man early 20s from OpenAI who started a fund and had uh in in very short order billions and billions of
[06:48:55] short order billions and billions of dollars to manage and he was on fire and I think his returns through the first half of the year were like 435%. half of the year were like 435%. Not bad for a 24 year old and um
[06:49:08] apparently it's all fallen to pieces. Um I uh I'm not saying the guy's roaming the streets broke, but I believe that his fund on the whole has been his fund on the whole has been dispatched and sold off because the
[06:49:20] reason for those sensational returns for the first half of the year were because of the a the AI trade principally in April, May and June. Because here we see April, May and June. Because here we see EW South Korea which is an approximation
[06:49:33] of the kinds of stuff he was trading. It was just setting the world on fire. And without any announcement, without any news release, um it peaked on June 18.
[06:49:45] And since then, as you can see, you just like draw a line straight down. Has been just falling to pieces. Now, from time to time, we do get counter trend rallies here and here and here. And of course, what's happened over the past
[06:49:59] what's happened over the past 72 hours or so. Um, but the the 72 hours or so. Um, but the the downtrend is clear and it's not the cleanest chart in the universe, but it's not bad. We've got pretty decent
[06:50:12] resistance right along this level. So, we'll keep an eye on that. The other interesting thing is uh that we basically opened strong and are trading rather weak now. You can see this also reflected domestically SMH the
[06:50:27] semiconductor index. that we have here. Here is the uptrend. It first broke here and this line changed from support to resistance, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll go down. It respected it as
[06:50:41] resistance all the way to lifetime highs. And then this was the end of it. highs. And then this was the end of it. Um June 22, so just a little bit after uh South Korea peaked. And down we go. And this pattern is a little more clear.
[06:50:55] If I gave EW a grade of like B minus, this is more of a B+ in terms of clarity. And I would say that today's high isn't a bad approximation of resistance here. Um there's the top [clears throat] on that. And you know,
[06:51:10] it's funny because I um I mentioned this morning that I did not nail the entry of morning that I did not nail the entry of this position at all. Uh I started just this position at all. Uh I started just all around here trying to short and on
[06:51:23] the whole it just kept failing and finally after a couple of weeks of trying it stopped failing. I stopped getting stopped out because the market getting stopped out because the market moved lower. And so I was uh short SMH
[06:51:36] by way of puts and also short a bunch of individual items and rode this and I I individual items and rode this and I I began to cover here on Tuesday and I began to cover here on Tuesday and I sold my SMH puts and I was really upset
[06:51:51] with myself the next day cuz then it fell hard. But you know what? Let's be fair. I missed the bottom by, if we consider trading days, I missed the bottom by a few hours. I'm not going to beat myself up that
[06:52:05] much. It's true, there was a lot of gains to be had with those extra few hours, but I missed the bottom by a few hours. And I was really concerned that, Wednesday. It's like, good lord, how long is this thing how far is it going
[06:52:18] to fall now? Not so mad anymore. Uh, I've looked and if I just put my fist on my hips and kept it through this day, it would have been a pretty ugly loss by would have been a pretty ugly loss by now. So, wasn't bad to get out Tuesday.
[06:52:32] Lighten up Tuesday, lighten up Wednesday. Um, yesterday was no fun, even with positions that I still had left. And today has been no fun either because it's been a real um whipssaw. Um, as I said, uh, got stopped out of
[06:52:47] some stuff and re-entered some of those items at worse prices as we went into this like inexplicable freef fall. And that only took about, you know, 15 minutes from top to bottom. The whole range of the day was just crunch that
[06:53:00] range of the day was just crunch that little bit of time. Uh, a more dramatic little bit of time. Uh, a more dramatic way to see all this is KO KU. Um, and in this instance, very wellformed top, down it goes. You've probably read that South
[06:53:12] Korea had their biggest rally I think ever um on the uh on the Cosby um and ever um on the uh on the Cosby um and like 16 70% over in one day. Um but looking at this um it's not really sticking.
[06:53:28] sticking. So um all in all um just to reemphasize going to the weekend very light although the the positions I am still in tend to be in the same zone. um SMH and a handful of um high-tech
[06:53:45] um SMH and a handful of um high-tech stuff. So, storage has been another very similarly behaving sector that's been breaking down. Um I entered a tiny position in SanDisk this morning just to just cuz I like the chart so much. But
[06:54:00] this is SDNK SanDisk. Exceptionally wellformed pattern here. And once again, yes, it was very very low on Wednesday, but the ideal time to short any of this stuff, which I missed because things were moving so fast, would have been the
[06:54:15] open this morning or any of the first 100 seconds or so of this morning. It 100 seconds or so of this morning. It peaked really, really quickly. Um, so it looks like a great setup again. WDC, this one not as much. This one is pushed
[06:54:30] into its pattern. It does not have the clarity that we saw with SanDisk. And same with STX, not as good. So, as far as storage goes, SanDisk looks like the real winner there on the short side. And even though earning season is kaput at
[06:54:45] this point now that Apple's behind us, um the next big one is weeks away. Uh um the next big one is weeks away. Uh the 26th of August, Wednesday afternoon, the 26th of August, Wednesday afternoon, Nvidia will announce. Um
[06:54:59] there's a billion things that happen between now and then, but just so as you know, that's the next meaningful earnings event. Um, I do have puts on a few items here and I've, you know, I peaked at like 45
[06:55:14] positions. I've trimmed that way down to 28. Yeah, 28. Um, and among those is a portfolio of just puts and there's seven of those. Here's a few of them just so
[06:55:27] these are all, as I keep saying, these are longdated. These are January's and in the case of FXI, March of next year. So, here's Caterpillar looking real good. And I mentioned this in the morning program that as exasperated as I
[06:55:43] place I wasn't was my options portfolio just cuz nothing got stopped out cuz I don't put stops on that one. So, that dealt with all all the turmoil just fine cuz it it was just passive. But, there's Caterpillar, which reports I think next
[06:55:57] Tuesday, next week sometime, I'm pretty sure. Um, so that's shaping up nicely. Carvana which already reported on um Wednesday evening and this looks just Looks real good on the diamond pattern there. FXI these are the March ones
[06:56:12] giving him tons of time. Um I will get out if we push past this line level because this has been very very strong and this is my line in the sand. I will not tolerate it past that level. But if we look at the whole history of this um
[06:56:26] we look at the whole history of this um my view on FXI that is to say China the China ETF is that um this is a pretty interesting medium-term opportunity. Uh you can see with this giant green bar
[06:56:38] here how positive this month has been for FXI and I am defying that by by getting all these puts. So that's my March. Uh GE this is uh doing okay. It's
[06:56:55] not a beautiful pattern but it's doing okay. Um cubes we've got a over uh over overhang as uh if you will of uh supply above that price bar and some I've got
[06:57:09] above that price bar and some I've got cubes uh puts on that. Uh Shopify SHOP. This one, weirdly, in spite of the huge rally yesterday and the continuation rally yesterday and the continuation today, has had two nice red bars. Um, so
[06:57:22] that one's going pretty good. I like I like how that's shaping up. One item I've been really ham-handed on, very frustrated with myself, so I've just stopped messing with it, is Bitcoin. On the whole, Bitcoin trade has been going
[06:57:35] slowly but properly, but I just can't get it right these days, it seems. Um, get it right these days, it seems. Um, here's IBIT down almost 3% today. from a bearish perspective. I just keep blowing it in terms of the short-term
[06:57:49] moves. Uh, I do still have MSTR short and um that's that's doing well. But thrown my hands up for the time being. BITI, the inverse Bitcoin fund up almost
[06:58:01] 3%. Um, again, nothing wrong with these. They're doing great. I just uh uh my own my own personal performance with these has been poor over the past couple of has been poor over the past couple of weeks. Uh I do sell them as I said um
[06:58:15] and it's down about 3 and a half%. And um at least I got [clears throat] some participation in that. I'd also mentioned Mara M is another interesting looking chart for any of you who are bearish um on crypto. There's just
[06:58:29] really rough idea of the right triangle on that one. Um, SpaceX reports Tuesday on that one. Um, SpaceX reports Tuesday afternoon. We're at lifetime lows again. The push above the trend line has clearly not meant a thing. Uh, we could
[06:58:45] easily be at double digits on Monday and it's uh I'll just, you know, I'll say that this is very rare. I want this to go up. I believe it will go down. Um,
[06:58:57] you've got the risk of the earnings report. You've got the unlock coming in about a week or so. Um, and clearly the performance has just stunk up the room during its lifetime. So, yeah, it's probably just going to keep sinking.
[06:59:10] But, um, just real quick, last items. Here's the ENQ. Today's high, I think, is a pretty reasonable line in the sand for resistance. uh frustrating as yesterday and today have been, this is a good-looking chart, and I imagine I will
[06:59:25] be delighted and furious with myself on Monday if if things uh flop because I am, as I said, quite light going in. And the one as item that not many folks are talking about, but I think demands attention is bonds keep falling.
[06:59:39] Interest rates keep rising. No matter what Mr. Worsh is doing, they just keep rising. And we have been in a six and a halfyear bare market on bonds. It's not stopping and I don't think it's going to stop. So
[06:59:54] I hope you've had a decent week. Have a good weekend and I'll see you back here good weekend and I'll see you back here on Monday. Goodbye.
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[07:01:31] >> Hey, bring the alarm, boys. Turn up the charm. Listen up y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. minutes of the trading day. Final 30 minutes of the trading week. TP, it's
[07:01:47] last call. He's Tom Preston. I'm Chris Feio. TP, what a week it's been. What a month it's been. >> It's the neverending bull. Chris, this >> It's the neverending bull. Chris, this is um S&Ps are up again. My shorts are
[07:02:02] up and my longs are down. How can I survive? Actually, what was looking like a really ugly morning has turned into Yes, if I can hang on to this, it'll actually be a green day for my account. Up up up a little bit. Not huge, but all
[07:02:17] my yesterday's earnings trades from Reddit, Amazon, Microsoft. What else did I do? Um those are all losers complete. Uh those will go out as full losses cuz I sold, you know, one day one day put spreads, one day call spreads. So, I
[07:02:33] just called all those wrong, but everything else I hang in there. Um, everything else I hang in there. Um, in, you know, Nvidia's the the markets market's very inconsistent. So, Chris, I just pulled up some data. Um, of the S&P
[07:02:50] 500, and this was 5 minutes ago, of the S&P 500, 266 stocks were up on the day. S&P 500, 266 stocks were up on the day. Um, in the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, 61
[07:03:03] Um, in the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, 61 stocks were up on the day. So, it's a mixed bag. The NASDAQ's a little bit stronger stat just statistically. Uh, a few more greater percentage of their shares are up on the day as opposed to
[07:03:16] the S&Ps. But just sort of I don't know. I I'm not convinced that the rally is going to hold. Um partly because looking
[07:03:28] at the um looking at the bond yields start to start to spike up, the crash in start to start to spike up, the crash in ZB and ZN um the increase in bond ZB and ZN um the increase in bond volatility versus the VIX which is what
[07:03:41] is it Chris >> back down just above 16. You know it's the rise in bond volatility versus the drop in equity volatility has me concerned about equities. I don't know what's your take
[07:03:54] on that. I don't know if Bondvall is at a place yet index right now. >> Bank of America US bond option volatility estimate index. So move mo market option volatility estimate. Okay.
[07:04:09] Um it's only 77 right now. Back in March when the market was really freaking out maybe this is the start of some acceleration, but also the move index is not >> uh it's below where it it it was trading
[07:04:22] last Friday at this time for what it's worth. So, you know, the move is certainly accelerating. Um I can't believe I got I decided to it. >> Oh, you mean on on short short ZB?
[07:04:38] long put spread you put me in a few weeks back. >> [gasps] >> You know, it's it sometimes you just you just have to do it. And as long as the position is small, Chris, you just, you
[07:04:51] know, you play the you play the play the odds, play the statist statistics. Personally, I the way I'm expressing it right now, I Let's see if I got filled. right now, I Let's see if I got filled. I bought a put spread in IYR.
[07:05:07] >> IR. >> Yeah, IR. That's a, you know, I'm That's the EyesShares Real Estate Trust. I don't know anything about it. Um, it's probably a bunch of REITs, maybe some homebuilders. I don't know what's in it,
[07:05:20] homebuilders. I don't know what's in it, but it is it is one of three big ETFs. Um, what is it? XHP is the home builders. VNQ is the Vanguard one. Um, XLR. Um, and those options in those were just
[07:05:36] nobody wanted to play. I got filled on IYR. I bought the 105 106 put spread, one strike wide. One strike wide um in the August expiration
[07:05:50] um it just is a bearish trade on h on the housing sector on real estate because as the 10 years specifically as the 10-year yield starts to move higher and it seems to be um that's going to put pressure on mortgages. People just
[07:06:04] can't afford to buy this stuff. It was hard. It's going to get harder. >> Mortgage rates are jumping up here today. Uh I think they're approaching. on the third on the 30-year the way that it's turning out. TP. Um yeah, IR is
[07:06:18] more of the REITs XHB ITB. Those are more of the home builder side of things. But you know, TP, you and I have put on so many ding trades on these last calls over recent weeks that we find ourselves looking down the barrel at a lot of
[07:06:30] figured that we could head over to the little positions tab here on my cleaning as it were. There are a few things that there are a few things that are at zero DTE for example like the uh put butterfly that we put on as a hedge
[07:06:44] earlier this week in case things really went haywire and it looked like it was Wednesday afternoon that was looking pretty good but ultimately it's going to expire worthless. I do want to consider the short put spread though that's in
[07:06:57] the short put spread though that's in here in the Russell at the uh 2850 2875 thesis when it was put on back here in the first week of July actually has held here when we first dipped. But the point was that we had a market dip between a 1
[07:07:10] gets you into the trade it gets you into the trade. The idea was that it would hang out above the 50 throughout the cycle and sure enough we're here above expiration. So this has got to go TP. we can think about rolling it forward later
[07:07:23] on. I don't like putting new trades on on Fridays, so we start to ship it to get out the door. Um, what else here? >> Uh, Corning, you and I put on a put spread earlier this week in Corning around their earnings. While that did
[07:07:36] ultimately fall apart, we got a rebound and we got a bounce back. And so this now I can't find a market for it because there's no actual bid here given
[07:07:48] What are the what you could do? Let me see this. You could just buy put in like a two or three cent bid for the 27s, the 127s. You're not going to get filled on
[07:08:00] the 22s, but if you try like a two or three cent bid. Try a twocent bid. See if somebody wants to play. Um, >> TP, I wanted to say I put that up there
[07:08:12] and I were doing this this morning with Amazon, which we're going to go into in a second here. But you can, that's one of the things you can do here when If you want to change, you're going to have to take a different potential max
[07:08:24] work the market where you go a little bit under, a little bit over to see if to get out of the position. You don't need to wait to see if someone comes to you. >> Yeah, 100%. Um, but you got just just
[07:08:38] make sure you know that if there's a zero bid, there's a reason it's a zero bid. Don't don't try to don't go too high on it. Don't say, "Oh my gosh, I got to close this thing." Um, and then the thing is don't don't get too weirded
[07:08:54] out if you don't see your bid working because some of these orders can go to liquidity providers and they'll sit there and it's a fair market. Don't think you're being screwed. That's not the point. Um,
[07:09:07] but it can you may not see it working, especially in a stock like GLW. Cisco. I not have time. What do you have on in >> I'm sitting at 7 days to expiration now. I was running a little bit close here
[07:09:22] and seeing if we could get more of a pop back above the short strike, which fortunately able to do so today. So, it's only 13 bucks, but it's better than looking worse than that. But, you know, as as as others have said around here,
[07:09:37] trade, right, and you get to max loss, if you're not going to use the capital, conditions, you kind of theelma and lose it. You might as well drive it off the You still have a max loss. If it rebounds and bounces back,
[07:09:51] small profit like we just >> 100% like Cisco. Cisco looks like it wants to make another move higher again here. So, start of next week, uh, I'm going to be operating similar 110 1 105 depending
[07:10:05] upon the pricing that we're looking at. >> Yeah. I mean, I I traded Cisco quite a bit. I I don't have any positions on it right now. I have any positions on it right now. I actually have loaded up in here an iron
[07:10:19] actually have loaded up in here an iron condor with seven days to go. That might be a little aggressive. I didn't talk about it in my 1:00 show. So, I didn't I about it in my 1:00 show. So, I didn't I did not have time to do Cisco, but um I
[07:10:32] earnings. Earnings are coming out on August 12th. You don't really have much of a [snorts] you know, thought one way or the other which way it might go. You could do Let me fiddle around with the strikes here. I may just Yeah, maybe
[07:10:47] strikes here. I may just Yeah, maybe like um buy the 110 put, sell the 112s, like um buy the 110 put, sell the 112s, sell the 120s, buy the 122s for 75 credit. I would probably I think I'm going to wait on this until Monday. The
[07:11:01] options. I don't want to get I don't want to get >> um yeah, that's something I would consider with it like five days to go again. Ultra short term. Um anyway, Chris, what else do you have to clean
[07:11:16] screen. >> Today's been actually a pretty good day over here. Um bounce back. Yeah. And what I mean is what I mean is that the what I mean is what I mean is that the platform is really really visual. Um if
[07:11:32] the I can look at Chris's positions even though my eyes aren't good and I can I can't really see what they are. I can't really see what they are. I know that really see what they are. I know that his in the money markers are amber which
[07:11:45] means they're in the money but he's got some time. They will show up as red if it's expiring on the day of expiration. If he had anything going on this going off this afternoon, like I have a bunch of red on my screen for my in the money
[07:12:00] short put spreads in uh in Apple, my short call spreads in Amazon. They're going to, you know, go through assignment, whatever. Um and those show up as red. So I can see immediately where I have either, you know, something
[07:12:16] I got to think about or whatever. >> So TP, uh, along the lines of this, uh, earlier today because I had put on a Super Bowl earlier and it obviously wasn't working out for the past week or two given the way that the stock was
[07:12:30] now moved, I do have a short put spread side of this that is sitting at the 230 235 and right now it's still sitting at 15 cents. I was hoping over the course more run because it was up around 15% right near the open. It hasn't panned
[07:12:45] getting this selling this off at 10 cents but 15 is currently where it is. I see no reason to hold on to the short put spread side of this at all. >> There is none. There is none. >> Go ahead. Can you explain why for the
[07:12:59] >> No, no, no, no. So Chris, there is none. And the reason is that would you sell and maybe you would but would you sell a fivepoint put spread with with 21 days fivepoint put spread with with 21 days to go for 15 would you put this on as a
[07:13:11] >> No. >> No. So it and and Chris that and if you're looking at this with your own positions that that that 15 put that 15 cents isn't going to help you very much if the stock if Amazon keeps rallying
[07:13:27] and starts threatening that short call side. Okay, >> that's or the law call it's it's not going to help you. Okay, it's done it's done its job. Take it off and sell another put somewhere else.
[07:13:41] because we're just running through all the favorites right now. Western Digital Western Digital here has had a really nice rebound. It may have turned a interested in still trading on the low delta side, but after that big dip
[07:13:55] earlier last week and getting out, you know, this is one of those better to be lucky than good TP, I'm going to have to take this off at a small loss, even though we're 35 points, 37 points above my my short strike. Uh maybe I'll get
[07:14:08] know what? It just got to go 21 days. It was a terrible ride. It was an awful >> Made me feel >> I got to tell you. Yeah. And this is >> I got to tell you. Yeah. And this is this is not a brag at all, Chris. This
[07:14:21] is just and what do you say? Better lucky than good or whatever it is. Sand >> was insane today. I sold spread yesterday in it. Stock was up what 100 bucks to whatever the heck it was. Oh my gosh, look at me. I'm actually
[07:14:36] profitable on SanDisk. I took the put spread off. Let me see what I actually spread off. Let me see what I actually did in there. I was short show for a dollar for a dollar10 credit and I took it off for 20 cents.
[07:14:51] >> I took I did it for a$15 credit. So this was the 1145 1150 put spread with one day to go. I sold mine for $15. I bought it back for 6. You were a little bit more on top of it, Chris, and grabbed it at 10. I was probably asleep and got
[07:15:06] lucky. I bought it back for six and then it crashed. So what's SNDK now? SNDK 1282. So, we'd still be profitable on the trade um if we just held on to it,
[07:15:21] but I don't want I didn't want to take that risk and knew SanDisk was going to drop. It's like, oh my gosh, I have a profit on SanDisk. Take it. >> Yeah. And you have a profit with long deltas on SanDisk and a tape that's down
[07:15:34] 40% from the highs. Yeah, you take. But so, that's I saw it I saw it shoot by got to take the money and run it to zero DTE kind of thing, right? >> 100 100%. 100%. Liz and I were talking about this earlier from confirm and
[07:15:48] threshold, you know, when you're selling premium, it's 50% and then just move on. question didn't ask about selling premium was is a 50% threshold kind of hard and fast. When you're on the call side, the answer is no. Depending upon
[07:16:03] know, if you have long enough in and you're at 50% 3 days into your trade with 100 days left to expiration, maybe the thing keeps running, keep it going. Uh but selling premium obviously 50% is hard and fast rule.
[07:16:17] hard and fast rule. >> It it yeah it's it unless you have some other reason to hold on to the position. So you know if you know if you've done some analysis if you have all this stuff and you think my gosh I think SanDisk is
[07:16:32] Western Digital is going to keep going higher. I think Amazon Google whatever take your pick. If you think so okay hang on to some more profit. just understand that, you know, if you didn't know
[07:16:47] anything about it, which I looking over my positions, I couldn't tell you boo my positions, I couldn't tell you boo about any one of those stocks, okay? I couldn't say anything about them. So, to me, it's just a, you know, it's just a
[07:17:02] trade. Take it off. 50% of that profit, take it and move on. I'm reading Taiwanese semiconductor analyst notes and having Claude translate them for me. >> Right. [laughter] Right. Right. >> Just totally and
[07:17:17] getting at. >> Well, yeah. And so and so the point is and Chris, you you've done this for a long time. You know what you're doing. long time. You know what you're doing. But my point is, what do you know that
[07:17:31] But my point is, what do you know that some analyst in Taiwan doesn't know, right? who's already has a position in TSM. little bit differently. Maybe you can, maybe you work the chart. I don't know.
[07:17:44] Maybe. But there's a point where if you believe that all the all the option, especially if there's a lot of trading activity is packed into the market already, just just look at the options. Just look
[07:17:58] at the options. And you know, >> yeah, it's I'm glad you brought up TSM. >> Yeah. brought up because I'm at 21 days to expiration here and I'm still above my short strike. And this is kind of like Western Digital where two days ago
[07:18:11] loss. Now I could take it off for something smaller, more manageable, right? Instead of like a $600 loser, it's going to be a hundred bucks. Do you approach something like this? Now I know I took off Western Digital and I'm
[07:18:25] strikes >> 400 is my strike. >> It's a 10 point for 405. I might hang on to that for another few days. which is why I didn't jump to it with WDC at first. It feels a little
[07:18:39] >> only because Chris, it's still it's still 40% of the width of the strikes, $4. >> So, I would consider selling that spread >> right? Right. >> I would consider hanging on to that if
[07:18:52] you load right now if you have it loaded up as that. Um, >> right now you're making about a dollar. you have that in in other words what Chris has done is loaded in the buy order to buy it back but that has if you
[07:19:06] reverse all the numbers it has it's generating a $1.90 of positive theta so he's making a $1.90 in that put spread just a one lot that's not bad you spread just a one lot that's not bad you know over time and yeah I' I'd wait on
[07:19:21] that a few days if if you're still bullish on TSM >> I am and I do want to hold on to that just like I still want to hold hold on going on in Amazon. There are a few things that have kind ofish worked. Not
[07:19:34] was a nice bounce for me. You're I think the 140 145 short put spread here. It's a nice little day today. >> This floor like under 140 seems like
[07:19:46] it's holding. So, yes, it's at 21, but I'm inclined to hold on to it still for wide strike, it's still a 90. You know, we could go in here for what? A $1.94, I think. A$1.93. It's decent. It's decent. It's decent. So, there's some things
[07:20:01] other things that they're kind of right there. You and I though were together in Google. So, let's go there because this is the one that uh two weeks ago, a week and a half ago, we were both in trouble. And again, by the fortunes of the great
[07:20:14] winds of markets, the market gods, we now find ourselves back with a a decent >> I took mine off. I'm sorry, Chris. I took my Google off. I bought that back for I was short the 2530. Yes,
[07:20:27] >> the 21 days. I bought it back for 77 cents. first looking at this, I was weighing the considerations here. And when I first saw it trading, it was still trading in around a$110. And I said, you
[07:20:40] like, you know, a third of the width of the strike. I think it went on for a$180 little bit more by the end of the day. We can do something on last call. It's now at 64 cents. So, it's collapsed entirely. Um, it's more than 50% now.
[07:20:54] >> take it off. >> Take it off. Provide more opportunities >> Yeah. You're getting you're getting you're getting 13 cents better than I got. So, think of it that way. I sold mine for $1.70. Anything under what? 85
[07:21:09] cents >> is a is 50% for me. So, I took mine off for 77. Done. You're getting you're getting even better. Awesome. >> if you don't mind. Then we'll go back to the broader markets. Novartis, that was
[07:21:23] a short put spread. That's can be closed out here. >> Take that off. We'll go back to Kimberly Clark, which came in today, but it's we'll see if that goes off. >> And then the last one, Merc. That's
[07:21:38] decent here, too. So some of these like [clears throat] >> 13051. Uh maybe you join me. We were looking at what I think >> I sold the I I'm short the 115120 put
[07:21:53] >> I sold the I I'm short the 115120 put spread with 21 days. try to buy mine watch it crash over the weekend. I'm going to try to buy mine back on Monday. I want to see if I can get 50% on that thing. Look, Merk still
[07:22:07] way that I trade. Bottom left, top right, solid momentum, bouncing this week from its one-month moving average. Um, the short put spreads in some of done a little bit better than others. But TP, uh, I think that's the spring
[07:22:19] cleaning I want to do here for today. Some stuff that was between zero and 21 days, stuff particularly that had bounced back over the past few sessions, absolute gift just because you had your run. If you get to that other side of
[07:22:33] gift that was the market the past two days, it's a bailout. It was a bailout, TP. I I think I think most of those positions that we just ran through, which we were to close out here for, you know, small profits, decent sized
[07:22:45] profits, some of them closer to 80% of max profit, they were all at max loss. >> Wednesday afternoon. >> So, yeah. Yeah. >> You know, didn't panic, stuck to the mechanics, wait till 21. Uh, better to
[07:22:58] be lucky than good. And so here's here's the here's the point about trading a lot of the short-term stuff and I have a mish mash of expirations on but like I did over the past couple of days trading the one days. Yes, it's fun. Yes, it's
[07:23:13] addictive. Yeah, I'm a trading junkie. I get it. I get it. But it doesn't give you the duration. So what Chris can do if he sells let's say a 40-day o spread
[07:23:25] he can hang on to something and let the market come back to him. So that's what's been what Chris just said is is spoton. Yes. A lot of these things the market overall sells off and what does it do?
[07:23:38] Who knew? It blows blows up again. Rises right up again. that took a lot of losing trades in my account and in Chris's account, turned them into small winners or significant winners. Um, that's just the benefit of being able to
[07:23:52] hang on to positions as long as you're not taking too much risk and you can hang on emotionally as well as financially, you you'll be fine. But you when you do one days, yeah, the payoffs are fast, but you don't have the
[07:24:06] flexibility of time. That's that's the trade-off. And that's why I like peppering out these trades that are shorter term duration. Um, which granted I'm getting back say getting back into it because I'm not scalping, but I'm
[07:24:19] different methodology that I have in the past and I'm finding some success with you know, a tool in my toolkit here. But you have the zerod stuff, you have some of the 7DT stuff you're looking at at the 45 days, you have some, you know,
[07:24:32] more directional. All of a sudden your portfolio it's diversified across strategies, products, time assumptions, deltas, theta, right? And you you are going to be able to survive when the market pulls back in the way that it did
[07:24:47] we talked about this pullback over the past month here. TP, we got to keep an eye on this close for S&P. Man, >> we may close the month in positive territory >> for the S&P. We closed last
[07:25:03] >> 74.99.36. We are above water at 7405. >> That is an absolutely wild turn of events. HEY, GUESS WHAT? JULY WAS A GREAT MONTH, FOLKS. THE SEASONALITY WORKED. [laughter]
[07:25:17] >> But look at this. It hasn't gone anywhere. It spent the past month just kind of trading in a range, trading in a range, trading in a range. And so, yeah, you can make some money on the short side. You have been able to, but we
[07:25:29] haven't seen an actual crash yet. and it they come rallying right back. Um I have some bearish positions on in the NASDAQ. I've said that you know before. Um I'm
[07:25:41] you know I'm okay. I'll hang on to them. I'm short ball spreads well above the I'm short ball spreads well above the market. But it's you know I could see you know just selling the iron condors again. Just selling you got to the
[07:25:53] again. Just selling you got to the problem is Chris is with the low VIX you're not getting rewarded for selling premium. you. Yes, you are. Okay. You >> I actually found a decent spot for it
[07:26:06] >> Well, yeah. And and and that's that's that's your call as a trader. That's harder. >> So, the low for June was 7292. The high up here was 7693. So, we can call it just on the other side of 73 and 77.
[07:26:22] Earlier today on futures power half hour, we went to the 7250, 7275, and then the 772550. Uh we were looking at and do I have this lined up correct? I don't know if that makes sense here. One, two,
[07:26:36] three, four. That looks much better. Okay, so 25 points wide. Uh about $9 in third of the width of the strike. It's also above the summer trading range.
[07:26:48] starts rallying towards the top of the range, probably can take this off >> before it gets away from us. Uh but that mentioned, you know, we really returned to going nowhere. We're at the midpoint
[07:27:02] condor while there's a little bit of VA left in the market. Move on. Let's see what we can do with it. >> As we look into August, um, you know, I
[07:27:16] >> As we look into August, um, you know, I sold a put spread in the VIX with what did I do? And I'm sorry, my brain isn't what it used to be. VIX. I sold the uh 18 days. is I sold the 1617 put spread for 35 just betting that we might see a
[07:27:33] little bit of chaos in August. I don't know. Um what's what did crude oil I didn't look at crude oil all day. So crude oil is up
[07:27:45] crude oil is up uh one and a half% despite you know I guess Trump is trying to work some deal with Hamas or whatever and maybe who knows but crude oil had a little bit of a rally today. Um I was short crude oil.
[07:28:00] I got out a few days ago when it sold off but it's um I'm going to look to trade crude oil next week. I sold an iron condor in gold in GLD actually.
[07:28:12] crude real quick, just for that spring cleanup here, 17 days to expiration, the 6263, it's >> this has got to go. Max literally max profit. We'll see if we get filled. 17 not not quite there, but 6 cents now on
[07:28:27] done. >> That trade is done. And then 48 days. Uh 6667 94.95. I have a two I have an iron condor and a short call spread up here
[07:28:39] at 94.95. So just kind of a little bit tilt more to the downside. Keeping this left, but more importantly sitting dead set in the middle of a range. >> Yeah. No, and this is and people wonder how you know how much do you actually
[07:28:53] trade a day. Well, this is why the numbers get up when you're closing positions, rolling positions, adjusting them, putting on new trades. Yeah. you them, putting on new trades. Yeah. you start to get into 20, 25, 30, 40 trades
[07:29:05] a day. Um, it gets busy. >> It does get busy. And speaking of seconds of this trading day here. A little bit of weakness going into the close, so I guess technically we're going to finish for a red June here. We
[07:29:17] couldn't get back above 7532 in the uh in the futures market, but it's a hell of a rebound here over the past 48 hours. TP, where we were on Wednesday world. The S&P is going to close 75. We'll call it 16. 7517
[07:29:32] for this month of July. Your NASDAQ is 28,47. And that brings the VIX, the VIX down to 1623 here at the close. We are near 21 days here at the close. We are near 21 days ago. TP, what an absolute V crush. Hey,
[07:29:47] good news, bad news. Good news is I'm on first call on Sunday because my trip to Chicago was delayed by a few more weeks. Uh, so I will see everyone on Sunday for first call. 5:55 Eastern, 4:55 Central time. So we're taking a brief, what do
[07:30:00] minute break. >> Something like that. Something like >> See our kids, our family. We can just go to sleep. We can watch some sports. Hey TP, it's always a pleasure doing live. >> Thank you. Thank you, Chris. And uh,
[07:30:13] yeah. So I'm green in the day. I hope you are, too. I hope everybody out there is also. And uh, yeah, we'll see you next week. watching. Tasty live this week. Thanks to the production team and of course you
[07:30:25] the audience. Good luck trading. Hope you have a nice weekend. See you on you have a nice weekend. See you on Sunday.
[07:30:56] What's up, JC Nation? Welcome to the show. Happy Friday. It is July 31st, almost August. Kind of crazy to say, but Amazon Oh my god. [laughter]
[07:31:10] awake now. Uh, Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the close yesterday. earnings after the close yesterday. Amazon is up and Apple is down.