--- title: 'Good Morning Market | Live Analysis | 09/07/2026 | Stocks, Dollar, and Indices' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y25OmAYr6Lk' video_id: 'Y25OmAYr6Lk' date: 2026-07-27 duration_sec: 1771 --- # Good Morning Market | Live Analysis | 09/07/2026 | Stocks, Dollar, and Indices > Source: [Good Morning Market | Live Analysis | 09/07/2026 | Stocks, Dollar, and Indices](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y25OmAYr6Lk) ## Summary A live pre-market analysis of the Brazilian stock market on July 9, 2026, covering global indices, commodities, key technical levels for the Ibovespa and dollar, and specific stock recommendations for banks, miners, and steelmakers. The hosts discuss market consolidation, potential breakouts, and promote an upcoming series on a potential 'third wave' trend. ### Key Points - **Holiday and Market Open** [01:07] — Despite a holiday in São Paulo, the stock market remained open. Hosts note low liquidity but downplay its impact on trading. - **Recent Market Declines** [02:17] — The market has been falling for three consecutive days (Monday to Wednesday). A break below the 60-minute bottom suggests the wait for a trend will continue. - **Global Indices Overview** [03:26] — Dow Jones slightly down (-0.10%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up. European indices positive; Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -0.70%, Nikkei positive). - **Key Data and Commodities** [04:08] — Unemployment insurance claims at 9:30 AM ET will be watched. Oil up 0.69%; gold up 0.79%; silver up 1.30%; copper up 1.70%; iron ore up 0.20%. Mining stocks rebounding after yesterday's drop. - **Bank and Dollar Movements** [05:55] — European banks (Santander, HSBC, UBS, BNP, Deutsche Bank) gaining 0.50-2%. Dollar near stability vs. BRL, but falling vs. Mexican peso, suggesting a slight drop in USD/BRL. - **Dollar Key Levels** [07:07] — Resistance zone 5.195-5.200; breakout could push dollar to 5.223-5.250. Support at 5.61, but first must break 5.170. - **Ibovespa Key Levels** [08:02] — Break above 173,000 could retest 174,000; break below 172,500 leads to test 172,000. - **Yesterday's Trade Success** [09:10] — The team captured a 1,500-point drop by selling the index, then bought back with partial gains, netting a profitable day. - **Market Consolidation** [10:47] — The market is in a sideways consolidation, making it difficult to profit. A breakout in either direction is needed for clear trades. - **Petrobras (PETR4) Analysis** [12:03] — For longs, stop loss below 37.47; key resistance at 40.88. Hold above 40.88 for further upside. - **Vale (VALE3) Breaks Down** [12:30] — Vale lost its sideways pattern, weakening. Previous buy trigger at 78-79 invalidated. Stop loss below yesterday's low of 71.40. Not a buy unless it recovers above pivot. - **BBAS3 (Banco do Brasil) Short** [13:21] — Possible short if price tests 19.49. Stop at 20.37, partial exit at 18.61, final at 16.85. - **Current Portfolio Exposure** [14:30] — Long on Multi, BMG, Itaú, CPLE, Smart Fit; short on GAT and BOVA11. Net 38% long, 19% short. Day gains R$637 with max risk of R$7,125 and potential profit R$22,180. - **Gerdau (GGBR) Buy Setup** [15:34] — Buy if price breaks above 22.20 (60-min pivot). Stop below 21.29, partial at 23.10, final at 24.93. - **Short Selling Mechanics** [19:05] — At XP, you can sell short without borrowing first if you have margin; the system handles it. Otherwise, call advisor to check rental conditions. - **Buying Opportunity in Banks** [20:15] — Prefer buying banks in uptrends (Itaú, ABCB4, BMGB4) rather than BBAS which is downtrending. - **Pivot Strategy for Gerdau** [21:14] — Gerdau already in uptrend; buying at pivot near moving average is ideal. Now too far from averages, so wait for a pullback. - **Eneva (ENEV3) Setup** [22:10] — 60-min chart: stop below 24.92, entry at 27.08, partial at 29.24. - **Ibovespa Intraday Levels** [27:07] — Resistance at 173,445; support at 172,100. Dollar support 51.60-51.60, resistance 51.97. - **Third Wave Series Promotion** [28:04] — Hosts will discuss a potential 'third wave' market trend on Gamecast channel at 5 PM, referencing past waves (2002-2008, 2016-2021). Also a 3-day live event August 3-5. ### Conclusion The market remains in consolidation with no clear trend, but specific stocks offer trading opportunities based on technical levels. The hosts promote an upcoming series on a potential multi-year uptrend, encouraging traders to prepare. ## Transcript Good Morning Market on this beautiful morning of July 9th, 2026. Today is a holiday, a holiday in the state of São Paulo, but since our stock market insists on staying open because everyone wants to lose money today, we're here. That's it, right, Túlio? It used to be a holiday on those days, right? Now it's right? That's right, André. Good morning. Good morning everyone. Before, the stock exchange didn't operate on those holidays either, right? It used to be closed, but now it's changed, right? It changed a while ago; it's only a national holiday now. So today I think most people from São Paulo will be traveling. I don't know what let's keep going. Ah, I don't think liquidity affects it that much. What definitely affects it is the traffic, okay? I live [laughs] near the Congo airport. I mean, I don't live there, right? When I come to São Paulo, I stay here in my apartment near Congonhas airport, and I'm empty. Everything's great, thank God, right? Okay, folks. Well, God, right? Okay, folks. Well, yesterday was a day that started, it seemed like it was going to everything falling, we opened the first candle of the day, we were positive, look how great that is, and so on, but we came back, right? Let 's go back and wrap up another day of decline, shall we? We already had a day of decline on Monday, a day of decline on Tuesday, and a day of decline on Wednesday . If we manage to fall more on Thursday and Friday, we'll pull off a head trick, right? Well, I don't know how to right? Don't celebrate. Let's see if we can fall off for five days to celebrate. Now, broken the bottom of the 60-minute chart yet. It doesn't change much, except that it seems like the wait for a good trade, the wait for a trend, is going to take a little longer, okay? Well, today is a little calmer than yesterday, folks, okay? So, let me start showing you guys what this big, old, borderless world is like, since Paco, before you ask, Paco is on vacation until next week, okay? Oh, come on, shall we? We have the Dow Jones, SNP, and NASDAQ here, right? Well, D Jones is showing a slight drop, a 0.10 drop, but on the other hand, the SNP and NASDAQ are going up, okay? Well, we've had, and still have, Europe working in a positive direction, right? We have Stock 600 023, DAX 030, Ibex 109, uh K 40 032, Shanghai above 1.70, Hang Seng which is different, right? Yesterday she had climbed quite a bit, right? So, uh, uh, today it dropped 0.70, and Nickei also closed positive, right? I've also dropped quite a bit the day before, but today I'm closing the day in the before, but today I'm closing the day in the positive, okay? So I'm here for the news, okay? What can change today? I mean, there might be a war, there might not be a that, all of that can change the market, right? But the data that is truly representative is the unemployment insurance claim , which will be released at 9:30 in the market. So, we keep a close eye on that very condition. Perfect. Let's go. Regarding oil companies, oil is up 0.69%, and some companies some negatively, so there's not much new to report, right? Petrobras' ADR is trading near stability , having , having risen 3.48 yesterday and up 0.35 in pre-market trading. Perfect. Let's go. We have gold up 0.79%, silver 1.30%, copper 1.70%, aluminum 0.53%, and iron ore closed with a 0.20% increase. Okay ? So we have mining companies going up today, okay? They had a terrible morning yesterday, didn't they? Yesterday mining companies were falling 3, 4%, today they are rising 2, 3, 4%. And the steel mills are doing well too. Antofagass rising 3.49 and Celamital 2.20. Tatá Steil was up 8% yesterday, meaning there must be some significant news. So it's falling today, but it's not really representative for us, okay? Let's go. It's worth noting that yesterday her DR fell to 4.36, but today it's worth noting that yesterday her DR fell to 4.36, but today it's up 0.71%. Okay , let's go. The banks that also dumped money yesterday... right? Today, going up there in Europe, today going up, right? Santandé, HSBC, UBS, BNP, Paribás, Deut Bank, right? Any increase there between one is between 0.50 and 2%. Okay? We have the dollar here trading close to stability, okay? But falling in relation to the Mexican peso. This means that it is very likely that here in Brazil we could see the dollar opening with a slight drop. And to wrap up our pre-market trading in the United States, EWZ is up 0.09%. In other words, United States, EWZ is up 0.09%. In other words, Túlio, this creates a perspective of the dollar opening with a slight drop and the index opening with just a tiny increase, or close to stability, okay? Ah, basically that's it. Now, it's also important for us to know, Túlio, about the points, right? What are the key points we should be watching today, both regarding the index and the dollar? Let's go then, André. We're going to share the screen here. Wait a minute . It just froze here . It was good. Okay, an . It was good. Okay, an important point regarding the dollar, let's look here, this region between 595 and 5200 dollars, there's been a sellers. So, a breakout from this region upwards could bring the dollar to another level here. From 5223 to 5250, and downwards the most important point is 561. 561. But first, it needs to break through 5170, which is an intermediate point. So we have these two very important points here regarding the dollar today. Our index, let's go, let's put the 5 minutes of the index here, see. What a mess this index is, huh? Look at this. Well, an important point for the if. The first point is the break above 173,000, which could bring him back to test 174,000 again. And going down, the breakout of 172500 And going down, the breakout of 172500 comes to test the 172 ball. So, in the index, André, we have these two points that are most relevant to him today. And that's it. Let's go to the game, André. That's it . Let's go to the game. How was the classroom yesterday, Tulio? Ah, the room was wonderful yesterday, wasn't it? even? I didn't train yesterday, did I? I was, I was, I was... uh, I came here to record some things with Stormer here at XP, right? But I saw that there was a lot of activity yesterday, right? The market went, then came back, then went again, then came back, right? Well, then there was some mess in the index. What interesting things did you guys do there? I'll share it here quickly, look. H, sharing this with you all. I'm going to show you what we did yesterday, just a show you what we did yesterday, just a quick one, just for you guys. quick one, just for you guys. André, we sell the index here, see, André, we sell the index here, see, at this little red arrow. Look here. 173. And we came out down here, look. 172,000. So we've captured practically all of this So we've captured practically all of this movement from the fall up to this point. And then we did a little shopping here, look. We did some partial runs and ended up with zero points because he said he was going and then he didn't. Then we left Yeah, I would have done it there too. So we were able to capture a really nice sales trend here, right? We practically managed to capture the entire drop in the index by 1500 points here. Aside from the we were also doing a few trades. So yesterday was a really good day for us, and we invite everyone to come and see our room. Beauty? Put it on, and you , André, yes, I am. Put the link there so people can enjoy it. I'll put it here now. Let me get it here. Closed. Just a moment, I'm going to go on YouTube to get the link. Okay, here it is during trading hours, after 9 pm, click on that link and wait, he'll be there soon. Tulheira, good luck today, okay? Thanks, André. Thank you very much. Good luck to everyone and let's get to the game! Goodbye. Goodbye. Let 's play the game, everyone. Let's go to the game. Let's go. Let's go without wasting any time, okay? Take a look at the screen here. Okay, okay? Take a look at the screen here. Okay, let's go. first we're talking about BOV, right? We've been talking to you about We've been talking to you about this movement here, right? Well, I'm we can visualize it much more clearly, right? Well, what can I tell consolidation, nobody makes money, right? It's very difficult to make any money here during consolidation. This will generate money when this guy breaks upwards, and then we start buying the stocks on that breakout, okay? Or when this breaks downwards and we start swing trading, we'll enter these stocks on this breakout, okay? Well, I thought last week that it might break upwards. Well, it didn't break, did it? He just back," right? And it went back to lateral movement. So, we're that we have a better chance to think about the operation. Perfect. Let's go. Petre 4, we asked her for something really simple, okay? Well, I hope she Before that, I don't want anything to do with her, but I know that a lot of people have bought into her business, okay? For those who are long, the stop loss is below 3747, and pay close attention to 40 and 888, which for me are significant resistance points for this stock. Perfect. Vale, which had been sideways for some time, and I don't know what happened, but Piriri Pororó looked ugly yesterday, it lost that sideways aspect, okay? We can even get further down here, okay? this region, we can even extend this thing over here, okay? extend this thing over here, okay? But it became weaker than the last four times it reached that region, so it lost that bottom, okay? If we were waiting for her to break through to the top, let me show you here, okay? Where did we want to buy it ? We wanted to buy Vale when it broke through 79 or 78. Well, today I don't want to buy Vale anymore, unless, okay, it starts trading above that point and pivots up here, okay? and if I had bought, I would have exited the trade when it dropped to that point. André didn't leave. Great, she'll be discharged today , okay? So do this , man. Place your stop loss below yesterday's low of 71.40. And if it falls below that, then I don't think it's worth staying in the operation anymore. Let's go. Speaking of BBAS3, right? Yesterday you asked me about the possibility of trading in BBS3. We talked about sales, right? Well, I haven't sell right now, but for those who are, 19.49 is the right price. She crossed it, sell again if the market falls today. 2037 is the stop point, partial exit at 2037 is the stop point, partial exit at 1861, final exit here at 16.85. Perfect. Let's go. Itaú. We've already bought this one, I do look here. Actually, let me show you something I show you during good times and bad times, okay? Well, that's how our operations are going, okay? Let's go. We 're hooked, uh uh , come on, my son, go go. , come on, my son, go go. We're long on Multi, BMG, Itaú, CPLE, and Smart Fit, and short on GAT and BOVA 11, right? That gives us 38% bought and 19% yesterday, okay? Winning, we end the day earning R$ 637, but we still run the chance to lose, we still have the chance to lose R$ 7,125. All this so that, if everything goes according to plan, you can exit with a profit of 22,180, okay? In Itaú, our stop loss is at R$ 40.57, meaning it's still well above our and rises. For those who are positioned in the role, right? She's very close to our point of purchase, which was here, okay? So, uh, if you want to start I'm going to leave my stop loss below this region, precisely because I don't want to miss out on this asset. I think if the market goes up, banks will lead that rise, okay? Regarding BBDC4, in the 60- minute chart, we also mentioned buying it, okay? The buy order is at R$18 with a stop below 1708. If you've already bought, everything's fine. If you haven't bought it yet, as it possibility of buying it with a partial exit here at 18.92, okay? Let's talk about the steel industry, okay? What did I want, what did I ask for? Oh my God, I want a center here in GGBR, right? Come here to the 60-minute chart. right? Come here to the 60-minute chart. We talked about this yesterday, okay? Yeah, she's already leaving that pivot for us, okay? So let's agree on the following, okay? Hey GGBR, look here! Above 2020, 22.20, sorry, we have a buying opportunity with a stop below 21.29. Okay, let n't know why every time I open it, it's acting weird. Where's the red? Red, red, dark red. That's it. Dark red, right? Now here, blue objective appearance. blue objective appearance. Dark blue. Dark blue. Let's go. And what color is this? Ah, you have to come here to the properties and connect here, look. Now you have to put one here. Ready. Now yes. Now I'm going to put on a really pretty green. Dark green is here too, look. He set it as the standard. Perfect. Let's go! Buy at 22.20, stop at 29, partial exit at 23.1, final exit at 24.93, okay? Us Minas follows the same script, it needs to make a pivot on the 60-minute chart, right? I'll 60-minute chart, right? I'll tell you that this one here is only available for purchases over R$95, it's way too far away, we'll talk about it again tomorrow, okay? And CSNA, we it again tomorrow, okay? And CSNA, we never wanted to buy this one, it's only for sale. It's not worth selling now because it's far from average, and it's not worth low interest. So we'll just skip this one , okay everyone? Retail is tough, there's nothing left for us to see in the retail sector, okay? Maybe we need to change the retail landscape a bit, right? Let's call this traditional retailer a smart fit. We've already got very close. Actually, I think she's already given a partial release, right? Let's look at it here in the spreadsheet, because the spreadsheet knows more than I do. Okay, I closed the spreadsheet. Let me open it again here. That's something. Doing a lot of stupid things. Looking like Windson Nunes. Windson Nunes. Let's go. Come on, my son. No, Smartfit, we didn't do a partial reopening. She got close to our target, but ended up turning back, okay? Stop is at 18:26, right ? She left partially in 2012. She eventually came back, okay? But it's part of the process, okay? It's just a here below the bottom and let's go! It's the only thing we have that's more closely related to retail, okay? After that, Veg 3, we talked about buying it in the past, it's already gone up, there's already been a partial exit, it's back on the 60- minute chart, actually, there hasn't been a partial exit yet, right? 4627. You have the option to buy again. If it goes up above 46.27 here, you'll place a stop below 44.32, okay? And finally, in BRAER, okay? Well, I think we talked about her; she was close to the final exit. Let me take a look here. Yes, she arrived at the partial exit, I forgave her, and she returned to the we can consider a stop-loss order at 47, a stop-loss order at 47, a partial price of 8569, and a final price of R$ 94.91, okay uh, the main roles there, uh, in our market. And from now on, I I'll be coming back here. I think the first question here about uh first question here about uh uh paper was exactly from Lord Hot Dog. Lord Hot Dog, okay? It's sold on B3 SA3. He has a question too, right? André, do I need to rent it out first and then sell it, or do I sell it first and then rent it out, and so on, and I don't know what else to do. Well, it depends on the brokerage firm, okay? From what I understand, you operate through XP, right? I understand, you operate through XP, right? At XP, you sell if you have the margin; you don't even need to borrow the security, okay? Well, XP does that automatically. Now I prefer to pick up the phone and call my advisor and say: "Look, I'm stock. See what the conditions are for me exactly the rental price before you do the borrowing, okay? But you can sell first and borrow later, okay? Let's go. Uh, BBAS, André, any chance of buying? No, right, João? It has a downward trend. In a downward trend, nothing is interesting for buying, right? Everything is interesting for selling. In fact, yesterday someone asked me about selling it and we talked about selling in this region here, 1949. Okay, André, if the market BBAS will probably go up too, but I'm much more inclined to buy other banks that are already in an upward trend, like Itaú, like ABCB4, like BMGB4. Okay? Let's go. ABCB4, like BMGB4. Okay? Let's go. André, GPA3, GPA3, please tell me about it, okay? Well, GPA, one of those cases, right, Well, we've already seen it, and hopefully we'll see it again soon, right? With the Ibovespa, for example, having a strong correction, breaking the previous low, then going to the average, making a pivot, and then taking off. When I say I'm going to wait for a pivot above the average, we're talking about this with GGBR, okay? We're talking about this here, okay? Look, on the daily chart, it made a pivot, went up, it's there, soon it will reach the final target of the operation, okay? Uh, in reach the final target of the operation, okay? Uh, in other words, it's no longer possible to buy, okay? Now, those who bought when it pivoted at the average will think about selling now , okay? And why can't we buy now? Because it's far from the averages, okay? Buying far from the averages, we know that in the long term it doesn't work. So, it either moves sideways or corrects at the averages. Then we can Very good, especially for those who already... Congratulations to those who are already positioned, okay? After that, Goal 4, let's go, Goal 4. Uh, look, Goal 4, it came into a region of strong support and started gaining strength from there, okay? Besides that, like GGBR, right? Because it's the same as GGBR, right? It's a hold that same as GGBR, right? It's a hold that mainly has GGBR shares, okay? It has a 60-minute chart pivot to make, okay? So, both for those who are already positioned and for those who want to enter, look , 9.72 is a good entry point, , 9.72 is a good entry point, okay? And if you're already in the trade, 9.43 is a good stop point, okay, everyone? I ask for a second from you, it's one second a second from you, it's one second less, I'll be right back, okay? One second. We've already talked about the same, then there's without three, okay? Let's go. Without three. Without three, look. Without three. Let's go. Uh, man, what happened in these 60 minutes here? What a beautiful thing, right? I don't know... What happened, man? Well, it's a pretty crazy chart, right? An asset that had been falling, and then had two days of high volatility. I really can't understand why this movement happened in Seminim, okay? Now, let's go. How high did it go? To the resistance point, okay? So, the ideal scenario for Seminim, for want to buy when it crosses all the averages." So, it made a pivot, broke the top, we think about a trade here with Seminim, okay, let's go. Smart Fit, Seminim, okay, let's go. Smart Fit, we already talked about it, BBDC4 too. But anyway, as I said about buying BBDC4, let me go back to that buying BBDC4, let me go back to that , okay? Look, 60 minutes, a little bit of this thing came up, okay? It came back, broke 18, it looks great, okay? So that's what we're waiting for. Let's see if that happens, okay? And Finally, let's talk about if that happens, okay? And Finally, let's talk about Eneve 3. Okay, everyone, let's go with Eneve 3. We're going through a correction, okay? Now let's look at the 60-minute chart with me, okay? We just need to increase the size of what would be this stop-loss point, okay? Because on the 60-minute chart. Therefore, if you're out, stop below 24.92, entry at 2708 and partial exit at 29 and entry at 2708 and partial exit at 29 and 24, okay? Let's go, everyone. Look, the 24, okay? Let's go, everyone. Look, the imagined, with a slight increase, it's currently rising 0.14. Actually, I don't even know if I slept positioned with this, how it happened, etc. I'll even look here. It's rising 0.14, which is nothing too significant, oh my God, right? Which is close to stability, okay? We have a resistance point here in the 173 445 region, which is where we... Yesterday, the market went by and I wanted to sell if it fell below that, I wanted to sell if it fell below that, okay? And the support point is 1721, okay? Which is exactly a point that, well, below that, things get ugly, but it serves as a support point, so it might be interesting for the market to go that way , okay? Let's go. The dollar, as we imagined, opened with a slight drop, 0.04, nothing too dramatic, right? But, look, dramatic, right? But, look, support point here in this region, right? Uh, 5160 to 5160 is a very supportive point, really, okay? And up here, resistance at 5197, okay? It hit this point here and went down, I think there's a possibility for us to consider a trade, okay? Besides that, folks, look, today I'm going to invite you, okay? Stormer and I invite you, okay? Stormer and I will be on the Gamecast channel at 5 pm today talking about something called the third wave, okay? Which is going to make a wave as beautiful as the one that happened between 2002 and 2008, as beautiful as those that happened between 2016 and 2021. So, I'd like to draw your attention if you can participate on the Gamecast YouTube channel. And also here in the video description you can register for this series of live streams that we will be doing on August 3rd, 4th and 5th. We'll be bringing together more than 50 years of market experience to talk about this moment and also about the solutions we see for the market, should we experience a good trend. Perfect. The invitation is extended to you all. A big hug to everyone and see you tomorrow, God willing. Bye. Want to invest in the stock market without wasting time with charts? The Strategia Time portfolio analyzes more than 200 assets and delivers everything ready. Entry, stop and target directly in the app. It's swing trading with method, results and practicality. Try it for 7 days risk-free. Start today with those who understand the market. description, and by buying through that link you help sponsor this channel. [music]