[00:02] strategy if not the best betting strategy ever and this guy made over 1 million pounds using it this strategy is relatively low risk and yields very good returns and the best part about it is you don't need to be a tennis expert and
[00:17] analyze the games of hundreds of players this strategy is known as Court sighting and involves betting at the game live at the location where it is being played and getting on the bets before bookies or Sports books have updated their odds
[00:31] appropriately based on the events that have just happened this means they get their bets on at odds well above the fair rides which therefore makes it positive EV or expected value and after that they can either choose to let the
[00:44] bet just ride and hope for the best at positive expected value or they can cash out with the Sportsbook or bookie with a small profit the most popular sport for court sighting is tennis and this is for two main reasons firstly because there
[00:58] are Dynamic events meaning to have significant effects on odds and betting outcomes when they do occur an example of this is when a player breaks their opponent's serve meaning they're much more likely to win the game or the set
[01:10] or alternatively to a lesser extent when they win a point to gain a couple of break points against their opponent secondly the frequency of these events such as players breaking serve or gaining breakpoints happens many times
[01:25] throughout each match and therefore presents many frequent opportunities per game this is separate from something like a soccer game where even though there are significant events that can affect the outcome of a game such as if
[01:38] a player gets a red card or there's a penalty kick awarded to a team these sometimes they don't even happen at all in soccer games so how can Court sighting be possible how can you be able to get odds that aren't updated by the
[01:53] bookie but bet on events that kind of happen in the future well the reason for this is that the scores aren't updated automatically at the moment the point is one so when a player serves an ace at that moment the player doesn't receive
[02:06] it it's not automatically updated there has to be an Umpire who updates the score electronically into a system and that system gets passed onto Sports books and they can therefore reflect their odds so how you take advantage of
[02:18] this is by exploiting slow umpires they might take a couple seconds before they can update the numbers into their pad correctly so chord sighting doesn't always work you do need to find slow umpires which gives you a little bit of
[02:31] time like even a few seconds to bet on the events before sportsbooks can update their odds the easiest and simplest case of Court sighting is betting on something entirely risk-free as you are basically betting on something that has
[02:43] already won for example if you are betting on the next Point winner or the next game winner if it's already at game point and you see a player win that point or win the game then you can bet on that and it's entirely risk-free and
[02:56] BBC was doing he was basically betting on game point and we can see the odds are very very low and that's because here's just one point away from winning so if you watch this clip carefully we can see there's two parties involved one
[03:09] is the court cider because nowadays sporting events don't really like courtsiders and you're technically not allowed to do it so what he does is he communicates to someone remotely using a Bluetooth connection or like a phone and
[03:22] that person places the bets for him we can see he was purely focusing on the entirely risk-free bets so just betting on the next game point winner and we can see he's only showing wins and no losses which implies that he was only betting
[03:35] on guaranteed things that had already occurred and the fact that the odds were quite low kind of reaffirms this idea unfortunately though this was back in 2017 and because of that video or through just losing a lot of money to
[03:47] these courtsiders The Bookies definitely caught on and the next game winner is suspended during the final points of the game when it is at a game point scenario meaning it is no longer possible to guarantee a profit by betting on
[04:00] something you know has already definitely won so it is quite exciting no longer possible well actually no just because the purest risk-free and longer available doesn't mean opportunities no longer exist but it
[04:16] does take a bit more skill a basic understanding of the game of tennis and some mathematical intuition to figure it all out to try and explain let's use an example let's say its final set of a tennis match between Medvedev and Nadal
[04:30] both players have won two sets and two games each the score is 30 40 on medvedev's serve which is breakpoint the next game we're not Market will be suspended as it is game point and bookies are trying to avoid losing to
[04:43] court circles however what about winning the match if the mighty Rafa Nadal wins the next point he will have a huge Advantage as he would have broken medibadev's sir and therefore in the final set of the game with a break of
[04:56] serve is very very likely now that Nadal will win the game okay this means if you see either Nadal already win the break point or even earlier maybe see Nadal is very likely to win that point for example if you just saw Medvedev lobb
[05:09] the ball high into the air land short in Rafa's side of the court and Rafael Nadal has a very easy smash then therefore betting on the dial to win the game is now a value bet at that time before the bookmakers could update their
[05:22] odds the fair rods for Nadal to win the game might be 1.6 and the bookie is offering you 1.5 however after the point an endowed breaks served the fair odds will likely drop to perhaps 1.2 meaning the 1.5 odds for Nadal to win the game
[05:37] is a great value bet we can work out the expected value mathematically for a one thousand dollar bet dividing one by the fair rods gives the fair probability of 83 percent of Nadal winning then we plug the numbers into the EV formula which is
[05:52] the sum of the probabilities multiplied by the respective payout which is an 83 chance of winning multiplied by 500 profit effort and a 17 chance multiplied by a negative one thousand dollar loss which is two hundred and fifty dollars
[06:06] or twenty five percent in expected value the reason this bet is profitable even though we aren't guaranteed to win is because this particular bet has a high Delta a term I borrowed from stock options theory that represents the
[06:19] change in value of an option given in one dollar change in the underlying stock for tennis betting DOTA we can think of it as a change in the audits for a player to win given a one point change in the scoreline depending on the
[06:32] score at that time each Court signing opportunity might have a high Delta or a low Delta in the example above the opportunity has a high Delta with the odds moving from 1.6 to 1.2 given a dollar's break-off serve in the decisive
[06:46] set however if instead the score was two sets to nil in favor of Nadal and four nil in the third set in favor of Nadal even if Nadal broke men would have served to make it five nil it wouldn't affect the odds as much as if it were
[07:00] already pretty much no chance of Medvedev winning in this case the fair rides for Nadal might be 1.01 at 4 nil in the final set with the bookmaker offering 1.01 after it becomes five nil
[07:15] the fair odds might become 1.05 but it's a small change and a low Delta opportunity since the booking odds are still lower than this it is still a negative EV bet figuring out the Delta for points throughout the game will take
[07:28] some mathematical modeling and knowledge of tennis and the player's strengths relative to each other but it can be done this will help you determine if the change or shortening of the odds as a result of the Court signing information
[07:41] and Advantage is enough to offset the difference between the fair rods and the current outdated bookies worst odds and therefore create positive EV bet opportunities nowadays this strategy is made even harder as in some places like
[07:54] Australia it's no longer possible to bet live just by pressing a button instead with most Sportsbook seem to call up the company and they'll have to place the terms and conditions and whatnot which takes time and by that point the
[08:09] signing Advantage for a few split seconds no longer exists however even if you timed everything very well bookies like Bet365 which is the main bookie offering these live bets on tennis games are catching up to what is happening
[08:23] are catching up to what is happening here looking at Bet365 priority Problem identified problem customers or customers to ban and restrict as those who are stalling going through silence checking prices or selections refusing
[08:39] bats during read back or hanging up which means courtsiders might also time waste or store as a result of having to place these bets over the phone and wait for the right opportunity between sports books don't like these customers and as
[08:51] a result they're more likely to be labeled as a priority Problem customer and get account restrictions stuck on them and of course they can just pick anyone who is suspected of having your system or visual Advantage which is just
[09:04] Court citing Advantage now even though code setting is a great strategy it does take a lot of costs like having to go to the tennis match and actually watch the skill to do it right as well however if you guys want some simpler strategies
[09:17] you can check out my other videos that are free on my channel the strategies I and New Zealand bookies and are specifically targeted for them and I've also just launched the USA and Canada course for taking advantage of sports
[09:31] books in North America and making a profit using strategies that work well then make sure to give it a big like down below and subscribe to this channel to not miss out on future sports betting tips and tricks take care and I'll see
[09:44] tips and tricks take care and I'll see you guys in the next video