---
title: '25-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Predictions'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=cGTvc-rrREU'
video_id: 'cGTvc-rrREU'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 1614
---

# 25-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Predictions

> Source: [25-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Predictions](https://youtube.com/watch?v=cGTvc-rrREU)

## Summary

In this interview, Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise with 25 years of market experience, shares his outlook for crypto in 2026. He discusses the 'great reset' thesis, signals for Bitcoin bottoming, the impact of macro factors, and the growing importance of real-world assets and tokenization. He also gives his views on ETH vs. Solana, the potential impact of the Clarity Act, and his price predictions for Bitcoin.

### Key Points

- **The Great Reset** [00:17] — Hogan describes 2026 as a 'great reset' for crypto, moving towards a more real-world oriented, revenue-driven, and tangible vision. The bull market coming out of this bottom will be different from past ones.
- **Signals for Bitcoin Bottoming** [01:26] — Two key signals: leverage being squeezed out (e.g., MicroStrategy trading below MNAV, open interest collapse, funding rates near zero) and markets stopping to react to bad news (e.g., crypto flat despite negative news).
- **Most Important Macro Factor** [03:23] — Hogan says crypto does fine if macro stays normalized. He is most concerned about AI outcomes: a true bubble bursting or a rebirth of excitement could take steam out of crypto. He expects a good second half of the year.
- **What Brings Buyers Back** [05:15] — For Bitcoin, large wealth management platforms (Wells Fargo, UBS, Merrill Lynch) are turning towards crypto, bringing inflows. For the rest of crypto, the intersection of real-world assets and on-chain assets (Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap) is performing well.
- **ETH vs. Solana in Tokenization** [06:54] — Hogan gives the edge to Solana for tokenized stocks currently, but notes ETH is 5x bigger and is the chosen platform for institutional assets. He is bullish on both, praising ETH's ecosystem healing.
- **Clarity Act Odds** [09:34] — Hogan puts the probability of the Clarity Act passing in the high 40s, higher than Polymarket's ~30%. He would take the other side of the Polymarket trade but not a 50/50 bet.
- **Impact of Clarity Act** [10:44] — If it fails, crypto struggles for a month or two, with smaller caps hit harder. If it passes, it's a 'shotgun start' to a new bull market. Long-term, crypto has achieved escape velocity regardless.
- **Bitcoin Price Prediction** [12:58] — Hogan predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 to $400,000 in the next bull market, with $250k as a psychological sell wall. He remains on a path to $1 million long-term.
- **Coldcard Hack and Custody** [15:20] — Hogan recommends ETFs with qualified custodians and insurance, or true self-custody with hardware wallets. He advises avoiding the 'messy middle' of unregulated custodians.
- **What Bitwise Buys** [17:01] — Bitwise's bulk assets are in plain vanilla products (index ETFs, Bitcoin/ETH/Solana ETFs). They exclude assets like Dogecoin, BNB, and Leo from their index. Personally, Hogan likes revenue-driven chains like Hyperliquid and improving tokenomics in Uniswap and Aave.
- **DeFi as the Easiest Trade** [19:04] — Hogan calls DeFi the easiest trade right now due to reasonable valuations, improving tokenomics, and the tokenization mega trend. Uniswap is a global brand with a $2.7B market cap.
- **AI Index Possibility** [20:11] — Bitwise doesn't have an AI index yet but is considering it. It's hard to do in an ETF currently, but they are fans of the NEAR team and might work on it in the next 6 months.
- **Best Financial Advice** [21:20] — Hogan's best advice: leverage and debt are what kill you. Avoid them and invest for the long term. Most of his investments he just buys and holds.
- **Greatest Trade Now** [22:29] — DeFi products are the greatest trade because of the collision of a thematic catalyst (tokenization, stablecoins) and reasonable valuations. Global brand names in DeFi are valued at a few billion, unlike in equities.
- **ETH and Solana Targets** [24:34] — Hogan resists giving valuation targets for ETH and Solana, saying they are still figuring out their valuations. He expects them to be higher, and if Bitcoin reaches $250k, ETH will break all-time highs.

### Conclusion

Hogan concludes that this is a magical time to invest in crypto, with clear catalysts like stablecoins, tokenization, and wealth management platforms allocating. He believes crypto has achieved escape velocity and the best moment to invest is now.

## Transcript

mean, you're a 25-year market veteran. Is that [music] fair to say? >> So, what would you say the headline for crypto in 2026 is? >> I love that question. Uh
something like the great reset. >> Today, I sit down with 25-year market Hogan. >> I think that's probably the easiest >> About what comes next with Bitcoin. >> If it passes, I think it's a shotgun
[music] potential into 2027. >> In this future of tokenization, which is clearly happening. >> In the next 1 2 [music] years. What benefits more? ETH or Solana? Click
subscribe if you're invested in crypto, so you never miss conversations like >> I think I think we're going through I think now. And I think the bull market that comes
out of this bottom is different than the bull markets that we've had in the past. So, I do think crypto is resetting into a much more real-world oriented uh vision, a much more revenue-driven vision.
Um a much more tangible vision. So, I think there is a a big reset or a big change um coming, and we're just going to start year. >> And when you say Bitcoin is in the
process of bottoming, what are the signals you're looking at that tell you >> Yeah, so there there two things that really always happen in a bottom. The first is that you see signs of leverage being squeezed out of the system. Uh you
see signs of apathy emerging. And we saw that at the end of Q2, right? Q2, you had massive outflows out of the ETF complex, you had massive selling. But at leverage really get squeezed out. You saw MicroStrategy trade below its MNAV.
You saw a stretch trade down to 75. You saw open interest collapse. You saw funding rates uh trend towards zero. All the signs that speculative excess in the system were hitting the bottom. And then the big tell to me is always when
markets stop reacting to bad news. So, as an example, so far this half we've had the odds of the Clarity Act take a one-way path downward based on Polymarket and crypto has been flat to up.
Uh we saw MicroStrategy sell Bitcoin and crypto rallied. Uh even at that moment when stretch broke crypto traded flat. When markets stop reacting to bad news, that's usually a
sign that the bottom is in. And um There are other things I'm looking at, the 200-week moving average, uh looking at long-term holders in the Bitcoin community, looking at ETF flows
normalizing out. There are a thousand different signals. Um but those are the two that really matter to me. And the most important, the most telling signal is when markets stop reacting to bad news, and we have seen that in the
crypto industry. Even recently, AI blows up, crypto's like, "Whatever." that kind of apathy. That means there's no more excess excitement and you're ready to to move to the next level. >> What do you think is the most important
macro factor for crypto and Bitcoin? Like the Fed, if the Fed hikes later this year, if the bond market breaks, uh or if AI earnings come back and the liquidity keeps going into AI, what's most important for crypto?
>> [laughter] >> Any extreme. So, crypto is going to do fine if all of that maintains on a normalized pace. If the Fed raises rates a little or drops rates a little, 25 basis points either side, I don't think
it matters, right? It's not percentage point moves. It doesn't reset risk expectations in a massive way. I think that's fine. If oil stays between 50 and $100 a barrel, I don't think it matters. It's not big enough to change the crypto
specific factors that are shaping this bull market. If AI does pretty well, but neither goes back to where it's sucking all the oxygen out of the room, nor does
the bubble collapse and Frontier Labs go bankrupt, and there's chaos. If it's just normal, crypto does great. So, if I had to pick one of those, the one I'm most concerned about is the AI one on
either side of that binary outcome, either a true bubble bursting, which I don't anticipate, or a rebirth of excitement, which seems more likely to me. Um those would take a little bit of the steam out of uh what I expect to be
a good second half of the year in Bitcoin and in crypto. But broadly speaking, we just want everything to be sort of okay, cuz the crypto specific trends, I think are very positive, and as long as macro doesn't get out of the
way, I think we're going to do great. >> So, in the reset of 2026, like you mentioned, you you gave signals for um basically seller exhaustion. What makes sells market bottom? What brings the buyers back in? So, what's the other
>> So, so depends on whether you're talking about Bitcoin or the rest of the crypto >> I think Bitcoin, right? What isn't that the mover? >> Well, I actually so I I think they're two different things. So, on Bitcoin
specifically, I think what brings it back is these large wealth management platforms that have been orienting around towards crypto, the the Wells Fargo, the UBS's, the Merrill Lynches, the other major wealth management
platforms. They've been turning towards crypto. That's going to really year. I expect you're going to see inflows. A lot of those flows will go into Bitcoin and I think that will sort of drag that market upwards.
very well is anything that lies at the intersection of real-world assets and on-chain assets. So that is hyperliquid. Uh that is Ave. That is Uniswap. It's
Morpheus. It's lighter. It's Aerodrop. It's all those things. You're already seeing them perform extremely well. Actually, over the last 3 months, our DeFi index is up about 25%. You don't usually see that when the
majors. I think that's going to be the other bull market and what's going to drive it is just this spectacular focus of is just this spectacular focus of interest in on-chain real-world assets,
we speak. >> I I want to talk about some of the smaller coins like Uniswap and hype and everything small being relative, but um in this uh in this future of tokenization, which
is clearly happening in the next 1 2 years, what benefits more, ETH or Solana? >> Ooh, great question. more. >> You're going to pin me you're going to
Um Uh look, what I'm seeing right now is stocks. And uh tokenized stocks are concentrated on the Solana ecosystem currently. And so I
would give the edge to Solana there. The The other reason I would give the I'll make the bull case for ETH cuz I'm also bullish on ETH. Um is it's just so about those two assets being the same size, but in fact ETH is like five times
bigger. So uh it's a takes incrementally less activity on Solana to sort of close that marginal gap. But I am bullish on both. I will say in ETH's favor, it continues to be the chosen platform for institutionals, institutional assets
moving on to crypto. And the ETH community has really surprised me to the upside with the way it's reinvigorated itself with all these new sort of sub foundations emerging. Uh it's been a beautiful example of an ecosystem
healing from a challenging environment. And I think there's a lot of momentum uh That's one of the reasons ETH has been doing very well. And again, it's to self-organize uh around the challenges it was facing.
And uh really put some effective steps in place to address them. I've been very >> [snorts] >> and ETH L2 for Robinhood chain? It seems similar degen users, but why they chose ETH?
>> Yeah, I don't know. It's it's a good question. I mean, with an L2 you get to to own a great deal of your own economics. And um I think that is a that's a good argument in favor of ETH ETH broadly. So, it has
that almost subnet style uh chain value that attracts a lot of don't you still don't get fired for building on ETH just like you didn't get fired for buying IBM. So, it is a it has
a default momentum, which is a really valuable characteristics and one of the among many that it keeps winning. Look, I'm an ETH bull. I actually like them both. Um but I think that that ownership, those economics,
and that default nature uh contributed probably to its decision. >> Matt, you've been in markets for over 25 years. You've seen near it all. What's pass?
Uh I it it's really tough. Um, it's really tough. My I don't want to You're trying to pin me down. It's a >> It changes every day, so I get that it's
>> It changes every day. Look, Polymarket has the odds at something like 30%. I haven't looked today, but that's where it was a couple days ago. I think the probability is higher than that, but probably still less than 50. So, I think
it's in the high 40s. I really think it's like a a coin flip. The the pro cases it won't die. And things that don't die, even though they have a million excuses to die, um, often tend to make it through. So,
it's it's shown remarkable resilience, but man is there, uh, Democrat on Trump hatred. And it just feels like ethics is this explosive thing that is going to be hard to
shepherd across the line. So, I I'd take the other side of the Polymarket trade, but I'm not sure I would take a 50/50 trade on clarity. >> What changes in your outlook, at least in the next 2 years, if it passes or if
it fails? I would assume if it passes, you're more just pro Bitcoin in the large caps. I mean, if it fails, you're pro the stability of large caps. >> I actually, uh, I actually think the the impact is much shorter term. So, if it
fails, uh, I think crypto in general struggles for a a month or two as it digests that news, and I think smaller cap assets probably struggle more. Um, if it passes, I think it's a shotgun
start to a new bull market. That's my broad thesis. I don't know how much it matters over the next 2 years because I think crypto is going to get enough escape velocity over the next 2
years that even a dramatic change in administration won't be able to put it back inside. You would just have too many people building in this ecosystem. I think it will be an Uber versus taxis sorts of situation within 2 years. So, I
think the impact is more short-lived. But, for sure, if it fails, I think crypto goes through a a period of volatility and that that hits particularly non-Bitcoin assets. Um but, as you go smaller, the impact is larger.
I think that's a that's a logical analysis of what will happen. >> Yeah, and to that point, it seems this train is rolling either way cuz Morgan Stanley is already developing products around ETH and SOL.
>> That That's exactly what I mean. Uh all the major providers are coming on board. This is not like a a one shot and then we're done. And if you think about the progress we've made over the last year, and then you roll that forward 2
more years, it's going to be really hard to put this back in. Yeah, Morgan Stanley launching multiple ETFs. Um you have 140 companies, you know, coming together to form a stablecoin. You have Robinhood integrating with
Uniswap and Morpheus on its own, you know, layer two. It's just going to be It's going to be too embedded into how finance works in 2 years for us to peel it back dramatically. It will still matter what
it's not We're not going back to Gensler. We're not going back to Elizabeth Warren. Uh you know, crypto has has achieved escape velocity regardless of whether the Clarity Act actually passes or not.
>> This question for fun, what do all Bitcoiners talk about or crypto people? Bitcoin? >> Yeah, I think I think 250 to 400 is a reasonable range. Um look, I continue to think it's on a path to a million. I
think the the next bull market probably has the largest market cap impact of any bull market, but a smaller percentage. That gets you to something like 250 is a double, but it's also a couple trillion dollars.
Uh it just takes more to move this asset than it does in the past. Uh but I do think there's a lot of capital from the financial advisor community, the large wealth management platform community that's going to come into the
market over the next 2 years. Um and I think that'll contribute to a nice bull market for Bitcoin. >> And when you say 200 250 to 400, is that because psychologically uh money will start to unlock those
levels or do institutions they're going to sell at a double for safety of their >> It's mostly psychologically behavior. I think it's you know, above 100,000, I think the next psychological hurdle is 250. Um
just because it's a quarter. And so that's a natural sell wall. Will we get through it? Maybe. That's why I offered some upside, but you know, $100,000, I know we went over it. But it was clearly a behavioral sell wall.
investors willing to take money off the table at 100 grand. I suspect that'll happen again as we go through it again in the future, but the next stopping point is something like 250 and um you know, that would be a
reasonable place to get to. That's a that's a 4x from here. Um that would be >> I think we'll get there. I think we'll get there. I think there will be another cycle. I don't think the top is in at all. Most
isn't coming in. And the fundamental case for it is as strong as ever, right? The budget is running away from us. So um I feel pretty good. >> 100% nothing has changed in terms of the fundamental use case and we're seeing
adoption. So eventually that breaks to the upside. Question for you Matt though. This is topical question from news thing a news event that just happened in the last 2 days. Coldcard got hacked, the wallet. Where
crypto? >> Oh man, it's a question everyone is asking right now. The you know, I it's hard for me to not talk my book.
it's hard for me to not talk my book. ETFs do ETFs do a phenomenal job uh of working with qualified custodians which have some level of insurance in place and a strong track record over a decade plus of successfully custodying
good solution. On the self-custody side, um but I don't want to recommend one. Feels like a feels like a a Twitter accident waiting to happen.
have both, you know, ETFs obviously they will handle the custody for you, and the saying. >> I I think that's it. My view generally and not in the messy middle. That's been the history of crypto from the beginning
is uh hardware wallet, real self-custody, true institutional custody, regulated with protections in place. Those have been great. It's everything else that has been a
mess. And as soon as you get away from those two extremes, and I think people both. Um there's strong arguments for both. Uh it's everything in the middle that I wouldn't I I wouldn't touch. I think we
need to go to the edges. >> And speaking before of talking your book, I personally like that because if you invest money in it or in your time in it, that's truly what you care about most. So, speaking of that, Bitwise I
think manages over 15 billion dollars in assets in crypto. What are you buying and what would you never touch? >> Uh me personally or Bitwise the company? was talking about Bitwise, but obviously whatever you're most comfortable with.
>> For sure. I mean, Bitwise runs a huge variety of products. ETFs, active strategies, etc. Um the the the bulk of our assets are in very plain vanilla products that just
help people gain exposure to the market. So, something like an index-based ETF or a Bitcoin ETF or a ETH ETF or a Solana ETF. We do um we do we are selective in that. So, if
you look at our index, for instance, it's the top 10. Uh there are a number is not in it. Um uh Dogecoin is not in it. BNB is not in it. Leo is not in it. It's not an
indictment of those assets. They just don't fit the institutional remit. We're doing more on chain. We're doing more vaults. That definitely gets you into a riskier uh subsegment of the market, but there's some
uh areas there. In my personal uh side, most of my crypto is basically broadly diversified in indexless strategies and never changes.
On a short-term basis, I think the the meta that's live in the market is revenue-driven chains uh that that capture their value. So, uh that that capture their value. So, things like uh Hyperliquid is a great
example. But some of the smaller apps that are improving their tokenomics are also attractive to me uh from the Uniswaps to the Aaves, etc. >> Yeah, uh uh especially with the institutional narrative, uh
protocols that earn make sense to me. You mentioned also before DeFi and you see uh buying demand from your clients for >> I I look, I think that's I think that's probably the easiest trade right now in
Um many of those assets are extraordinarily small, right? Uniswap is a global brand that is on a circulating supply basis a 2.7 billion dollar asset. reason why it had poor tokenomics
capture any value. They've shown the ability to throw a fee switch and aggregate a portion or arrogate a portion of the portion of the fee activity to the chain itself. Um
I think that's that's like a pretty it's aligned with a lot of things that are going right right now. Real world assets, integration with large financial partners, improving regulatory status, improving
tokenomics, a revenue driven meta. There is demand for those sorts of assets. You can't do many of those in an ETF yet. So these are private funds hearing that from clients. They're very interested in them in the revenue real
world um themes coming together. >> Does Bitwise have an AI index? >> We don't have an AI index. It's something that we talk about.
>> Why not? It's mega huge mega trend. >> Yeah. Well, we're crypto's focused asset >> But I'm talking about the decentralized AI, the NEARS, the TAOs, the VIVs. >> Yes, absolutely. So um
uh I bet that we will. I bet that we will. The The short answer is it's very hard to do those in an ETF yet. And it's very an ETF. So if you don't do it in an ETF, you
have to do it in a private fund which has these huge paperwork hurdles. It's really challenging. The ETF is the magic distribution wrapper. And those are just getting to the point where they might be applicable for ETFs.
Um but if you think about the themes that could drive the next bull market, that's clearly one of them. Uh we're huge fans of the NEAR team. protocols in the space. So I wouldn't be surprised to see us working on that in
the next 6 months. None of my competitors are listening to this, I >> Just us. >> Just us. Um a few final questions for you, Matt. Uh more big-picture, doesn't even have to necessarily do with crypto,
but as a market veteran, what's the best financial advice you ever received? financial advice you ever received? >> Uh the best financial advice I ever received, I mean, it has to be that leverage and
debt is what kills you. Right? If you avoid leverage and debt and invest for the long term, so many things work out in your favor. So, that's uh that's foundational. And certainly,
if you're young and have an experience of leverage or debt ending poorly, experience to have when you're young because there's a place for those, but they have to be used very strategically. Most of my investments, I just buy.
And then, I haven't gotten to the point in my life where I sell them. So, um know, if they're good investments, they go up over time. The way you get yourself in trouble is is leverage debt and timing.
>> I love that. And then, you mentioned some of this earlier in the some of this earlier in the conversation, but um the greatest trade happening now, most don't see it yet. You said I think you said DeFi products
is like the easy next thing that's a no-brainer for institutions. Could you >> Yeah. Well, it's just that um a few things have to collide to make something a great trade. You need to have a theme that gets
how you get multiple expansion, right? If no one cares about AI, you don't get the kind of multiples that we see in the AI space. You need a theme that gets exciting in the market. DeFi fits that because the There's a
tokenization, stablecoins, and the integration of crypto and real-world assets. It's on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. It's in CNBC every day. So, that is a clear thematic push.
And then, you need reasonable valuations. And when you look at the DeFi space, it's absolutely true that on a earnings it's absolutely true that on a earnings or like real revenue basis, they trade
because they're still improving their tokenomics. Although, something like Hyperliquid is trading depending on how you count, whether it's circulating or fully diluted, on something like 15 to 50x.
Um that's a big range, but even at the top of that range, that's not much above highly valued fintech companies. And it is going after a much bigger where you have like a a thematic
catalyst and you have valuations that look very reasonable to me. Um that's a really exciting combination. Again, I would go back to these great global brand names uh that are valued at a few billion
That's like try to find that in the equity market. Find me a global brand name that's a $3 billion company. They don't exist. Uh you have that in the DeFi space. I think the collision of reasonable
valuations, improving tokenomics, and this mega trend of tokenization has to lift those not has to, probably lifts those higher and I I I like them a lot right here. >> Matt, final question. If Bitcoin if /
when Bitcoin does get to that 200 250,000 dollar level in a few years, where does that put ETH? Where does that put Solana? ETH and Solana are the hardest assets right now to put a valuation target on.
And uh I'm generally bullish, but I'm I'm going to resist putting a valuation target. I think they're still honestly in the process of figuring out And I think we're going to learn a lot about that over the next year or so. So,
I'll I'll cop out and just say higher. I think it is higher, but I think we I think they some work needs to be done by those communities on on how you think we're monitoring that. >> That's that's totally fair. I respect
it. Slight slight follow-up. If Bitcoin does get to 200 or 250, do you think ETH breaks all-time highs? Like would that be fair? >> Yeah, for sure. For sure. Yeah, yeah,
give you that much. Yeah, I think that is true. There is a beta to the broader And look, there's a lot of excitement around stablecoins and tokenization and Solana. It's hard not to own them and be excited
about that theme. So, I think that's the direction. Yeah, if ETH is at I mean if Bitcoin's at 250, ETH's at a new all-time high. And it could be substantially higher. I just think the community is still
grinding through some of these valuation questions and I I actually expect them year, but we have to go through that process first. >> Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer Bitwise, thank you for joining me. Links
thoughts? >> This is a magical time to be investing in crypto. So, the hero stories that people tell are the people who came in the depths of 2022 or the depths of 2018, 2019.
2018, 2019. This is like that except we can see the clearly. We have this catalyst of stablecoins and tokenization. We have this catalyst of large wealth management platforms finally allocating to crypto.
It honestly feels like sort of the best moment I've seen to invest in crypto across eight plus years of being at Bitwise. So, it's an exciting time.