---
title: 'Video Ol18JoeXlVI'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ol18JoeXlVI'
video_id: 'Ol18JoeXlVI'
date: 2026-05-26
duration_sec: 106
---

# Video Ol18JoeXlVI

> Source: [Video Ol18JoeXlVI](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ol18JoeXlVI)

## Summary

A supercomputer predicts your choice in a dilemma: take both boxes (mystery box + $1,000) or only the mystery box. If it predicts you take only the mystery box, it contains $1 million; otherwise, it's empty. The computer is almost always correct.

### Key Points

- **The Setup** [00:00] — A supercomputer and two boxes: one open with $1,000, one mystery box. The computer predicts your choice and fills the mystery box with $1 million if it predicts you take only it, else nothing.
- **The Choice** [00:50] — You can take both boxes or just the mystery box. The computer made its prediction before you entered, and it's highly accurate.

### Conclusion

The dilemma pits two seemingly logical choices against each other, creating a paradox that has sparked intense debate among the speakers.

## Transcript

There is a problem that I can't bring up without starting a fight. No, what? It just seems so obvious to me. Now I'm all screwed up, man. It has infiltrated every single Veritasi meeting in the last two months.
It's trivial. I didn't think you would fall for this side. Just makes sense. Let's go! And I even argued with Derek about it. There's no way. You're trying to convince me. I don't care.
So here's the setup. You walk into a room and there's a supercomputer and two boxes on the table. One box is open and it's got a thousand dollars in it. There's no trick, you know it's a thousand dollars.
The other box is a mystery box. You can't see inside. You also know that this supercomputer is very good at predicting people. It has correctly predicted the choices of thousands of people in the exact problem you're
about to face. Now, you don't know what that problem is yet, but you do know that it has been correct almost every time. Now, the supercomputer says you can either take both boxes, that is, the mystery box and the $1,000,
or you can just take the mystery box. So what's in that mystery box? Well, the supercomputer tells you that before you walked into the room, it made a prediction about your choice.
If the supercomputer predicted you would just take the mystery box and you'd leave the $1,000 on the table, well, then it put a million dollars into the mystery box. But if the supercomputer predicted
that you would take both boxes, then it put nothing in the mystery box. The supercomputer made its prediction before you knew about the problem, and it has already set up the boxes. It's not trying to trick you.
It's not trying to deprive you of any money. Its only goal is to make the correct prediction.