[00:03] cooking today. We've got well red stock market cooking today, that's for sure. Uh, okay. We got all the buttons are pressed. Welcome back everyone to another live stream. You know, long weekend. It's always weird and you never
[00:16] when you come back from a long weekend. You get, in this case, a dumpy dude lob. Let's take a look at uh what's going on in the market. We did get down to five
[00:28] in the market. We did get down to five uh 95 on uh the Q's, which I personally find to be a pretty critical line. Uh we've held this line in the past uh just hold it now. Let's go take a look at this and see here on the unaveraged
[00:44] candlesticks. We've got this rotation moving uh you know, not only out of artificial intelligence related stocks, but really almost everything. I mean, you're seeing Tesla's about certainly lost 414. We're about to lose 400. I've
[00:56] got Microsoft losing 400. I've got Netflix at 75. Uh I've got AMD losing Netflix at 75. Uh I've got AMD losing 200, down 5% intraday. I've got Open Door nearly at 420. Uh this is uh you know, it's messy. Now, uh this morning
[01:11] were talking a little bit about the history of this 595 line. And uh we really didn't actually see 595 get breached uh anything lower than see this right here was pre-market and postmarket on a different day. Uh but we actually
[01:26] opened here on February 6th back above 595. And so we really didn't spend any real time under 595 and it's been quite a while since we've actually spent time
[01:38] a while since we've actually spent time uh under 595. If we zoom out, head on over here to uh where the Q's sit now, you know. There we go. 595. The last time we really breached this for a couple days was over here in November.
[01:53] Uh but since then, you know, we've really been sitting above 595 since September of 2025. So, you know, coming back full circle essentially to this 595 level, which you can see a little bit more easily here uh with the average
[02:08] candlesticks. A little bit disappointing. Obviously the um confluence of postwar factors are all accelerating at the same time which would be things like you know the Japanese carry trade acceleration the
[02:22] rotation into software artificial intelligence the uh you know wars fear that he's not going to come bail us out the uncertainty around tears you know all of this uh coming together uh SoftBank Group dissolves share stake in
[02:39] Nvidia oh that's interesting Interesting. Uh, I just got a headline on that. Now, Soft Bank, I thought I thought they've already been selling. Did they Is that Was that just sort of like the leftover stake? Let me see
[02:51] like the leftover stake? Let me see here. Soft Bank Nvidia ownership. So, I made their money. Yeah. No, we already had this news as of November. It says SoftBank sells entire stake in Nvidia.
[03:04] Uh, but now it says dissolves share stake in Nvidia. So I I wonder if that SEC filing just went through or something. Uh and then this was already too much of a surprise though. The headline alone could just continue to
[03:17] drive that, you know, at least some of the fear uh in markets. You've got bonds interestingly becoming this almost flight to safety uh where you know,
[03:29] ad there. There we go. Where uh you know, Google and and silver or Google speaking of Google, I wonder how Google's doing. There we go. Losing that 595 again. We really just can't get it off the uh off off this level here. Uh
[03:45] off the uh off off this level here. Uh Google's now down uh about 15% actually. Google's now down uh about 15% actually. Look at that. 297. I'll call it 298. Be 35017. Yeah, we're down about 15%. 14.9% on
[03:59] Yeah, we're down about 15%. 14.9% on Google. Uh so, you know, definitely some pain here. Uh and you know hopefully it just creates buying opportunities rather than some form of you know unemployment driver. Uh that's certainly going to be
[04:12] the most concerning is if you have an unemployment driver here then uh then then you've really got issues. Uh let's see here. Uh
[04:29] Uh this morning we did some uh we did a deep dive by the way in applied make sure you check that out in the course live. And last week, just want to analysis that we did because we do have earnings coming up on that one. So, uh
[04:45] let's see here. Warner Brothers did reopen talks with Paramount, though it I seemed like they were still preferring the Netflix deal. Netflix has been performing very poorly after that deal was announced. people were worried that
[04:58] Netflix is going to have substantially more expenses uh over the next few years. Uh so that's been rough for Netflix. So Netflix was already on decline before that. Uh which is a fantastic company. I wouldn't be
[05:10] surprised if they're the Disney of the future. But uh anyway, what else do we have here? So uh this is interesting. Lenders to commercial real estate owners pay up. Now I saw a little bit of this earlier,
[05:23] so I I want to talk about this. Uh, I didn't go super deep on it, so we'll do that now. Uh, let's see here. India Shadowflade, Eric Trump invests in lowcost perk kill drone company called X10 in a deal to
[05:38] take the Israeli company public. Ah, got to love the the dollars. The Trump family gets to make. Uh, let's see. The break is over. Companies are jacking up prices again. Let's take a peek at that. And then I've got,
[05:53] let's see here. Otherwise, uh, activist stake in Norwegian cruise lines. Nice. Anything else? Not really on the Wall Street Journal.
[06:05] So, let's take a look what we've got over here. What is this? Lenders to are going to be like offices and, you know, retail storefronts, whatever. Uh,
[06:17] are reaching a breaking point. calling in tens of billions of dollars of troubled loans. Refinancing property debt has become difficult. Uh hold on a debt has become difficult. Uh hold on a sec. Uh give me one sec here.
[06:40] want to come say hi? >> Come come come say okay. Thank you. Do hi. >> Hi. There you go. All right. Uh, so what is going on over here? Uh, lenders are calling
[06:56] Yeah. calling in tens of billions of dollars of troubled loans. Refinancing property debt has become difficult since interest rates started to sore. Right. There's been a lot of this this sort of extend and pretend. Uh, if you haven't
[07:08] actually a pretty powerful phrase. extend and pretend is um something we've extend and pretend is um something we've seen a lot of in uh well really I mean place but okay yeah just put them all right there thank you that's perfect
[07:22] right there thank you that's perfect thanks so much um bye um extended pretend is really this principle Jack could you close both doors of we or some company or whatever isn't solvent they can't make their payments and so the
[07:37] actually realize the losses at this point. Maybe things will get better point. Maybe things will get better here. Uh so, you know, hey, um let's your principal. Kind of like those COVID loans and uh and and you know, maybe
[07:52] things will get better. Uh and so let's see what they say here because Many lenders initially extended maturities. Yes. When borrowing costs were lower, hoping that interest rates would fall or that cash flow would grow.
[08:04] right? Oh, there it is. They literally said it right here. I guess I could have just kept reading, but anyway, now many lenders have stopped pretending. The default rates are surging on commercial. Now, surging, how high? Uh, the
[08:17] delinquency rate for office loans and commercial mortgage back securities jumped to a record of 1 point. Come on, they made this number up. 1 2 3 4 [laughter] uh 12.34 in January. The highest level
[08:29] uh 12.34 in January. The highest level since uh Tre began tracking in uh 2000. Let me see if I could actually find that. So that's default rates for office that. So that's default rates for office loans. Default rates, office loans,
[08:41] loans. Default rates, office loans, commercial mortgage back security. commercial mortgage back security. Let's find out.
[08:54] Try to get a chart here somewhere. CNB. Nope. Oh, I'd love to get a chart somewhere. Trap. Here's the chart. Uh let's see here. Commercial. Oh, here we go. By property type. Aha. Oh, there
[09:09] it is. Okay. Okay. So, by surging they mean over the last year we've gone from 10 two up. Okay. That's interesting. Hotel defaults down. Uh pretty stable on like industrial
[09:23] delinquencies are down. It's really just that office sector. that office sector. All right. Uh end of forbearance. I mean, oh, I guess, okay, this could go back further. That's interesting. Yeah,
[09:37] because the other chart I saw only took us back to January. Only took us back to right here. So, it's really hard to see the increase. But boy, if you zoom out, I mean, certainly during COVID, nobody could really default. But, wow, what a
[09:49] rocket ship, huh, on default rates. That's incredible. commercial real estate debt has climbed to levels not seen since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. More than half of roughly $100 billion of
[10:04] securities are coming due this year are unlikely to be repaid to maturity. Yeah. That compares to a maturity payoff rate of about 75% in 2024 20 uh in 2025 and
[10:17] of about 75% in 2024 20 uh in 2025 and more than 80% in 23. Uh so now we're looking at half. Oh, that's terrible. So 50% are only going to get paid off this year is the expectation whereas it was closer
[10:32] is the expectation whereas it was closer to 3/4 to to 4 fifths previously. Some are heading towards foreclosure or They're like, "Look, we're done. We're done with this, you know, hoping you
[10:45] Let's just cut our losses." I think that's really what's going on here in commercial real estate. Uh, moral of the story, if you owe the bank a little money and you can't pay it back, you have Oh, this is an old news. Uh, that's
[10:58] that's a stupid line. Embrace uh remote workforce foreclosing on non-performing move on to what's next. Creative destruction. Yeah, I agree with that. I bankrupt on the office buildings, let them go bankrupt. That's the whole
[11:11] them go bankrupt. That's the whole point. You know, I that's why I I personally am just like this is not the time for for debt. you know, you want to time for for debt. you know, you want to stay away from from debt.
[11:23] we have over here? The break is over. Prices are companies are jacking up prices again. Is this true? Levi Stri McCormack said they're raising prices. McCormack said they're raising prices. Uh, let's see here.
[11:43] small have begun a new round of increases, sometimes in the high singledigit prices. Companies had raised prices last year to offset tariffs.
[11:55] Yet, many firms held prices to get the holiday shopper shoppers. Now, the holiday shopper shoppers. Now, the pricing break is over. at the start of the new year. Yet increases appear to be stronger than
[12:11] increases appear to be stronger than normal for January uh for electronics, appliances, durable goods. Some companies have pointed a finger at blame high wages and healthy health insurance hefty health insurance costs.
[12:25] Right. Prices on affordable imported goods are up by 2.3% despite since goods are up by 2.3% despite since dipping at the end of November.
[12:37] posted their largest increase in a dozen years in January. Oh, that's not good. Driven by higher prices of computers, appliances, furniture, bedding, Columbia sportsware is upping prices, blah blah blah blah
[12:51] blah. Yeah. All right, I get it. The problem here is that, you know, Trump's tariffs are definitely inflationary in the short term. In the long term, I economy down and unfortunately they end up leading to deflation. A bust in in
[13:09] artificial intelligence and sort of the bubble, if you will, would be uh very painful and and even worse. We don't want that to happen. So hopefully this you know, ends up being a dip opportunity. Uh but uh but but losing
[13:23] opportunity. Uh but uh but but losing 595 is is is not a a good omen. So we end of the day. Now this is a pretty strong support line that we're losing and you know it's intraday few minutes intraday isn't usually the biggest of
[13:37] deals code reds and AI debates Pinterest twofront battle I don't care that much about Pinterest spend uh let's see ads open AI in advance talks to hire open claw founder okay China AI giveaway war what's this AI is
[13:54] magnifying Google Meta's edge in ads yes I actually think meta is is uh brilliant uh with with what they're able to do with their ads. Uh we've got SpaceX joins Pentagon drone technology competition competing for a $100 million
[14:09] prize. Elon's out of money. No, they got to try IPO. We got the Apple event coming, which I'm actually pretty excited about which I'm actually pretty excited about the Apple event. Um I do wonder, let's
[14:22] go to like 9 to5 Mac or something like that. I do wonder if how Apple is performing right now. Yeah, Apple is up on that news today about 1 and a.5%. on that news today about 1 and a.5%. Kind of stabilized though. If I now go
[14:35] Kind of stabilized though. If I now go here, architecture whatever where do we have any like roundup any like roundup of what we're expecting for the event?
[14:54] more prominent, but anyway, it's supposed to be new iPads, uh, new, you know, MacBooks MacBooks and otherwise. Feel like, uh, March 4
[15:08] event, Apple 925 Mac. I should have an article on it. Special event. Yeah, here it is. Okay. New lowcost MacBook powered by A18 New lowcost MacBook powered by A18 ProChip. New M5 MacBook Air. New M5 Pro
[15:23] ProChip. New M5 MacBook Air. New M5 Pro and M5 Max MacBook Pro models, new Mac and M5 Max MacBook Pro models, new Mac displays, iPhone 17e, A18 base iPad, and the M4 iPad Air. So, no, no Pro iPad.
[15:38] Well, I guess we'll see. Eh, all right. What's this over here? China's AI giveaway. US firms such as Open AI and Anthropic trying to get on the path to doing so. In China, big tech firms behind AI chat
[15:51] bots are fighting a different battle. Chinese tech firms are competing so intensely to draw people to use their AI chat bots. They're spending this week's Lunar New Year holiday giving away free stuff or cash as an incentive. Yeah. I
[16:07] also, you know, you have to you have to remember so long, they're going to become a commodity. Nobody cares, man. So, everybody's going to be begging, "Please use my chatbot instead of that chatbot."
[16:21] You're already seeing it in China. They're literally giving away humanoid robots, drones, electric cars, and 3D printers. Apparently, they're also now giving away red envelopes containing cash prizes of up to $1,300 roughly.
[16:37] 888 yan, right? Cuz that's the, you know, lucky number, I guess, in in China. Huh. Okay. Well, I think that's to come over here. Frankly, it'll just be a matter of time before you get uh this
[16:52] kind of activity over here. Uh, okay. All right. So, then we've got SpaceX IPO could tap hordes of individual investors. Of course, I mean, everybody's going to want to yeed into
[17:06] that, but that's exactly the kind of exit liquidity that uh Elon wants. He needs your money. He's brilliant, but he needs your money. [laughter] That's the little uh what's what was his
[17:21] name? I can't remember that comedian's name. I can't remember that comedian's name. Anyway, okay. So, that's the info. Try the Doomberers. See how the Doomberers are doing today.
[17:34] See how the Doomberers are doing today. Uh let's see here. Text talk. AI doubts. AI doubts. Oh. Didn't we look at Fastly earnings last week? I'm pretty sure we did. Maybe we
[17:48] week? I'm pretty sure we did. Maybe we didn't. Um, Fastley, Fastly, Fastly, Fastly. No, maybe not. Fastly. Oh, there we go. Oh, maybe not. Fastly. Oh, there we go. Oh, I looked at them. Uh, November 19th.
[18:02] I looked at them. Uh, November 19th. So, Fastly, so Fastly in the last, you know, whatever month has like doubled. Uh, look at
[18:19] this. You've had this little explosion over here in Fastly if you just quickly over here in Fastly if you just quickly look at it here. And uh a lot of these these companies have really high valuations, but uh yeah, we'll we'll tab
[18:31] bit, but let's let's see what the doomers are saying first. So, we will pull we'll have [clears throat] we'll have these SEC filings up here for
[18:43] Fastly. Do we get an annual or quarterly on them? Neither. Uh oh, it's going to be that quarter. Oh, there. No. Yep, there it is. All right. Uh, okay. Let's see here. Fastly
[19:00] Uh, okay. Let's see here. Fastly earnings 217. look and then we'll go look at uh the Doomberers. But, uh, let's just see what
[19:12] they're up to. So, if I look at Fastley's cash flow, their cash flow is Fastley's cash flow, their cash flow is acceptable. I've got $72 million that we've generated in 9 months over here. The company's losing money, but that's
[19:27] in Stockcom. 72 mil cash provided by operating property equipment expenses. I've got free cash flow here of about, you know, free cash flow here of about, you know, over 50 mil. 50 mil of free cash flow in
[19:41] over 50 mil. 50 mil of free cash flow in 9 months. It's not that much, you know. Uh then if I look at this, I've got a little bit of paying down a lease liability, but they're not really,
[19:56] that's good. What's the balance sheet look like here? Balance sheet. I've got look like here? Balance sheet. I've got current bills to pay of 328. I've got
[20:08] cash and marketables roughly to pay that. And then long-term debt, 149. Not bad. I mean, that's three 9-month periods of free cash flow. So,
[20:20] not the greatest balance sheet, but it isn't terrible, you know? Not great, not terrible. What's happening over here? So, on the revenue side, I think the enthusiasm is this growth. 158 divided by 137. I've got 15.3%
[20:36] growth here. And their cost of revenue did not move that high. [clears throat] That's actually pretty good. Yeah, look at that. their cost of revenue only went up 5.4%. So what what you have is this expansion
[20:50] of gross profit. That's fantastic. And so I think the idea is they're getting hopefully after all this sort of restructuring that they did. I think that profitability 20 cents away from from finally being
[21:06] profitable here. So that's impressive though. That does suggest some pricing power. Now, what is the what is it that they actually do? See, that would be they actually do? See, that would be nice to know. Fastly,
[21:25] my favorite way to see what a company does, the annual report. is different from we just had, click business, and then look at it. They tell you in their own words. Uh at Fastly, we deliver an edge cloud
[21:40] platform capable of delivering fast, safe, and engaging digital experiences. So they operate as a content delivery network. Uh-huh. A CDN. Okay. Oh, so this is kind of like a Cloudflare uh play, you know, cuz Cloudflare uh
[21:57] Yeah. And and preventing DDoS. Cloudflare is this sort of cyber Cloudflare is this sort of cyber security CDN play as well.
[22:10] commentary on Agentic is is important." Oh, I'll have to check that out. Uh, yeah, that's very interesting because then you you could really mold because then you you could really mold together cyber security and um, you
[22:25] know, what's it called? Um, artificial intelligence. The problem is the you know, and and the stock's blown up, but the valuations are crazy for these. I mean, oh yeah, we've regained 595 now. But even on Cloudflare, you
[22:38] companies, but their pricing power is clearly growing. So, you know, that's obviously quite exciting for them. So, okay, good. Let's um we'll look at their earnings call later, but for now, let's go jump into
[22:52] Although we just started, we just regained 595. What do they say? Deepen its plunge. Key gauge blah blah blah. NAS we've got Nvidia Broadcom slipping a little bit blotty blahy blahy
[23:08] that are increasingly at odds. One is segments of the economy so dramatically any company at the slightest risk of being displaced. The other is
[23:21] the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on AI. Right? you got this sort of like dual track mode going on uh with um uh with with AI right now. You
[23:34] know, I think the answer is probably somewhere in between. Um yeah, so okay, let's keep going here. Uh
[23:53] okay. Um great quarter for corporate earnings uh almost let's see what here management
[24:08] calls mentions of AI disruption almost doubled compared to the previous quarter transcript show while meanwhile technology hasn't yet noticeably reduced earnings estimates investors aren't waiting around and instead selling any
[24:22] company perceived to be at risk of yeah Well, that's that's the wild thing. Uh you know, you look at a company like even Axon, the Bobby Cam company, it's like they've had a they've had a bit of a dipl into it. Uh and and these are AI
[24:38] beneficiaries. So really create opportunities in some of these. So let's see here. But then you get this. Look at this. Uh fund beating 99% appears sees Well, let's see what their argument is. selling software stocks before the crowd
[24:55] paid off for a fund manager at Polar Capital Management. He warned his warning to potential bargain hunters. Most shares are still toxic and few Most shares are still toxic and few firms will survive. Tell me you're short
[25:08] without telling me you're short. Uh, okay. So, we think application software faces an existential threat from AI. 12 billion tech fund. Uh, we've
[25:21] got fears of sophisticated AI tools like Claude's co-work will disrupt software businesses. Uh, send stocks tumbling this year. ETF that tracks the software
[25:33] index is down 22%. Sharp contrast to semi stocks that have uh um soared as AI you've seen that as well with uh with just memory application software.
[25:48] Let's see here. They hold some call options on Microsoft. They've sold all Adobe, HubSpot. We won't go back to these companies. It's a little kiss of death there from this guy.
[26:03] that they can already replicate and modify much existing software. Uh that greater competition from their own clients who are racing to develop new tools internally to cut costs as well as AI startups. that
[26:20] AI startups. that yeah I mean it it makes sense to me you've got um such an advantage now if you've got a such an advantage now if you've got a good idea in software to to build uh new
[26:35] software but to replace some of these legacy products that are so critical to you know many different businesses I think is quite unlikely. um like I like think is quite unlikely. um like I like I say like an in it for example
[26:50] but anyway companies such as SAP that make complex software pract uh software according to Evans but with AI tools there's considerable uncertainty about the long-term valuations ah sounds like
[27:05] a bear a bear with some puts how many buts you have the debate over the scale strategist on JP Morgan said last week that software stocks could rebound following extreme price action. That talk would obviously favor stocks like
[27:20] Microsoft Service Now. But in fairness, we did just lose 400 on Microsoft. Did we get it back yet? No. Still sitting under 400.
[27:37] demand for the plumbing of the internet is s uh uh uh is soaring. Data Dog and Fastly. Data Dog. Fastly. Yeah, Fastly doubled. That was incredible. I saw that. Infrastructure software stocks. So, infrastructure software they call it
[27:54] now. Is this like that? That's the rotation. Oh, we're going to go from from the actual software result to infrastructure the plumbing. Okay. Uh
[28:07] No immediate threat from AI. Still less than 7% of his fund is invested in infrastructure, software, cyber stocks. Outside the two sectors, Evans expects only a few companies will survive the shakeout. He predicts most will go the
[28:20] way of newspapers in the 2000s. Wow. Wow. The guy sounds incredibly short and he's probably making an incredible amount of money giving interviews like this. Uh,
[28:32] money giving interviews like this. Uh, okay. So, what else? here? Lurin, the market is still close to record highs, but it may not feel
[28:45] that way to some investors because of the sharp sell-offs. Yeah, a lot of like we saw, even Google was down 15% from its peak. Some pullbacks offer an from its peak. Some pullbacks offer an opportunity.
[29:01] whether AI was real. Today, it's seen as an active threat to business models. an active threat to business models. It has been quite a wild rotation. Let's see here. Investors wary of adding exposure at
[29:16] current levels. That's why you got to buy real estate. Diversify. Yeah. Let's see. We've got eh
[29:29] markets really trying to stay up. I just hope you don't get like an end of the day sell. You know, we got that last Friday as well. You know, in the um in in the Friday alpha report, uh you know, we mentioned look for a a fivem minute
[29:43] bottom, which we got here within, you know, a buck and a bit of our line, a know, a buck and a bit of our line, a buck 39 cents uh of our line. And uh and then we were looking for a rally to 607, which we got. Uh, and the
[29:59] call on Friday was watch for a lunchtime sell-off like post lunchtime like sell by lunch. It's interesting. We never broke through 607 sort of double peaked here and just sort of U-shaped right into the close. If that happens today,
[30:13] going to be problematic because you'll lose 595 and I I think that's technically quite bearish. Uh, this trend has been happening since Uh, this trend has been happening since the Kevin Worsh takeover. Uh Kevin Worsh
[30:27] announcement was right about here. And so it's we've really got this pretty so it's we've really got this pretty aggressive downtrend following [gasps] whoosh.
[30:39] [laughter] Uh so very interesting. All right, Uh so very interesting. All right, let's go jump. So we've got the AI let's go jump. So we've got the AI giveaways thing. We saw that.
[30:54] Uh, let's see here. We've got Apple, Bloomberg. Looked at some of these. See if there's anything else in the doomers. Oops. Did not mean to do that. Let's close that.
[31:08] Okay. What? It's also got the FT cooking. cooking. Warner Bros. saw that.
[31:21] US. Yeah, that'll be interesting. got a whole lot of military equipment. I think we got like a third of our fleet in the uh the Middle East right now knocking on uh the Middle East right now knocking on Iran's door. German German population
[31:35] set to shrink 5% by 2050. Yeah, population decline is a tough way to grow an economy. You just frequently end up with this uh what's it called? This pain of um fighting population decline to to grow
[31:50] GDP. I mean, to to offset, you know, a 1% population decline, you have to grow GDP at 2% to stay positive, roughly, right? I guess you could say 1.1%, but anyway. Uh, okay. So, yeah, I feel like, you
[32:05] know, we're getting to a weird stage in the cycle when Japan's largest toilet maker is undervalued AI play, says activist investor.
[32:19] Yeah, that's quite interesting. AI toilets. All right.
[32:33] What else? Rin metal wins approval for Italian munitions expansion. Yes. More Italian munitions expansion. Yes. More bombs, more weapons.
[32:47] Okay, turning up hopefully. Let's see what they say. Uh, let's see. Last week, financial markets. Well, who is this? Chris. Okay.
[33:00] Well, who is this? Chris. Okay. Do we know who this person is, right. Financial markets were prepared for a
[33:14] the labor market. Economists were drawing up scenarios about the economy without any net job creation. None of that happened. We ended up getting 130,000 jobs. Unemployment fell for the second
[33:29] consecutive month despite all the downward revisions.
[33:41] would strengthen the labor market and guard against a deterioration that would be harder to address once it has begun. I I really agree with Waller. I think there you know especially if the stock market sells down you're likely to get
[33:56] some more uh some more layoffs unfortunately. Uh but it looks like right now we are recovering on the cues which is great. I mean look at that. Nvidia is almost green about to gain the lead on Nvidia. So, we got a nice
[34:09] rebound here. This rebound's now been going on for probably about 15 minutes. I mean, this rebound started at 1044. Yeah, it's um it's been up about 16 17 Yeah, it's um it's been up about 16 17 18-ish minutes now. So, you've got AMD
[34:22] no longer down 5%, regaining 200. That's bullish. Microsoft should be gaining 400 here. Uh and then looks like Nvidia is about to turn green. So, so not bad. Uh okay. So let's see what else is mentioned
[34:37] here. He worried that the expected revision would leave US the expected revision would leave US jobs growth at zero zip nada. Uhhuh. It was just one month of data, but the emerging reality is that strong US GDP
[34:50] labor market. Uh as we would expect, pretty much all the data last week was positive and diminished the recent paradox of strong activity uh alongside weak job numbers. Okay, if you compare a series of labor market
[35:07] indicators with their values as we have done below, the job market looks normal or even a bit stronger than normal. Labor market has cooled. Okay. back to central tendency for equilibrium.
[35:22] Current stance of policy may be very close to neutral. case for more dovish interpretation of the market now looks now rests on cherrypicking such as looking at private sector hiring rates right okay so the person's basically
[35:35] saying to really say that you have to be a dove right now you have to sort of cherrypick data a warning from down under oh because they went negative right a warning about uh or from Australia about inflation actually
[35:49] uh yeah but they also did funny things like they had a yield uh control uh yield curve control disaster and So I don't know that Australia is the perfect comparison but really the person saying hey you know we
[36:03] hey you know we the economy is doing stronger we're seeing that in the GDP numbers and the job numbers the question now is will it hold fair but that doesn't give us any
[36:17] insight right now. Okie dokie. Try the regulators. Holiday owner predicts World Cup will reverse US tourism decline. Ooh, Anderson Cooper
[36:29] leaving blah blah blah blah blah. All right, what else is cooking? >> Gain the lead. >> Nice. So, Nvidia goes green. I've got
[36:45] recovery as well on the cues. still cooking. Hopefully that holds. Here's poor old Adobe. Look at Adobe. I mean, how crazy is this downtrend? It's gone from
[37:02] It's gone from It's now at 257 divided by 638 It's now at 257 divided by 638 down 60% on Adobe. Yeah. Service Now, I think is in in a similar boat.
[37:22] Uh this is remarkable. I mean it's more than haved. Look at that. Going from 239 the NBS's. Yeah. With uh Donald Trump. Unfortunately, Kevin Worsh really ruined Unfortunately, Kevin Worsh really ruined that like days after Donald Trump made
[37:36] that like days after Donald Trump made this plan. Uh he picked Kevin Worsh. But uh but so far the tenure is slowly coming down. So, let's see if if they step it up on the MBS buying, maybe that dip will still happen. So, yeah, you're
[37:50] down 56% on service now. Isn't that crazy? Uh, let's see here. Yeah, almost over 600 now on the cues, which is nice.
[38:08] Palantisle went green. hood. Everything's roughly recovering hood. Everything's roughly recovering here, which is nice.
[38:25] here. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, nice recovering here. So, I mean, pretty boring right now. Not uh too terribly much news. Holding 595 pretty critical. So, I'm glad we're seeing that. But otherwise, uh, you know, we got ADP
[38:39] numbers this morning on the weekly at 10,250, which is decent. Um, but, uh, otherwise, I mean, here we are. What is it? 806. Market's been open for an hour and a half, first 90 minutes. We had this weird selloff after 12 minutes, and
[38:55] uh, it's been recovering since then. So, not bad. these levels? You know, Hood is much closer to its fair valuation at these levels. I think 65 is roughly where my valuation is in our
[39:11] um course member app. Remember, if you're a member of that the the alpha membership over at meet.com, you get basically our app of of all my, you know, price targets or valuations on companies and and how to calculate that.
[39:26] Uh the fundamental analysis, you know, we do every single day. Uh it's pretty fun. So, check that out over at me.com. You pay once, you get lifetime access. But uh yeah, about 65, which I think we got pretty close to. Uh we've gotten to
[39:40] got pretty close to. Uh we've gotten to 70 68 67. Yeah, gotten somewhat close. Critical now that we don't have a selloff into the close and we actually hold this 595. So far it's looking good. So hopefully we can go uh quote go quite
[39:55] green today. So we'll see. All right. So uh yeah, very well. We'll go find some other entertainment, but uh I got some work to do anyway. So, we'll I got some work to do anyway. So, we'll uh we'll see you all in