[0:01] All right, all right, all right, all right. Let's see what is going
[0:07] on in the world of the stonk market today, folks. Welcome back, everyone,
[0:13] to another stonk market live stream. Today, we are bouncing off of some
[0:19] of the aggressive lows that we had this morning. mostly because of
[0:25] enthusiasm that some of the worst is baked in. That's the hope,
[0:31] but we don't know if that's going to continue, especially since we've
[0:36] got, unfortunately, bad things news on yields and on Brent, which we've got
[0:42] to watch very closely. Brent right now still at roughly $113, which is
[0:48] not fantastic. $113 per barrel of crude. In addition to that, if we
[0:53] look at the bond market, we could see The 10-year has chillaxed a
[0:59] little bit off of 4.3, but it's still miserable at 4.287. The two-year
[1:05] treasury, folks, has up 11 basis points, leading to a massive bear flattening
[1:11] down at 0.43 on the 10-2 spread right now. This is typically bearish
[1:16] for the stock market, though there is hope that some of the worst
[1:22] may be built in now. Now, obviously, that remains to be seen. We've got a
[1:28] market that's tried to start rallying. It can't keep it up. We had a little
[1:33] bit of an Intuit rally begin. We saw this two days ago where it rallied
[1:39] and then it fizzled after about 20, 30 minutes. And it looks like that same
[1:44] thing's happening right now. But what's interesting and what we really want to start
[1:50] watching is some of this commentary from both the ECB, the European Central Bank,
[1:55] and Israel. So let's write down some of this. And see what
[2:01] the latest is regarding Iran. So first things first, yesterday we
[2:07] heard Trump say that Trump had no knowledge of this South
[2:12] Pars attack. Trump argued last night, no knowledge of South Pars
[2:18] attack. Then he said Israel will not do that again without
[2:24] working with the United States.
[2:29] And if Iran strikes more infrastructure, we'll
[2:35] attack their infrastructure. Okay, that was Donald
[2:41] Trump's truth yesterday. Okay, so we'll say
[2:47] that was Trump's truth yesterday. Problem is
[2:52] this morning, Semref in Saudi Arabia, an
[2:58] oil refinery, along the Red Sea, which is
[3:04] the other side of this conflict, was attacked by Iran. And
[3:10] listen to this, Israel, who was it from Israel? Let me
[3:16] see here. Let's see here. Israel, Israel, Israel, Israel. Sorry, so
[3:21] many updates have come in. I have lost where that Israel
[3:27] comment was. It's okay. I remember what it was, but I'd
[3:33] like to find it. oh those are a lot
[3:39] of ecb alerts we're going to go through the oh there we
[3:45] go okay okay three israeli officials three israeli officials for reuters uh
[3:51] israeli attack on south pars gas field was coordinated with the us
[3:56] but will likely not be repeated okay so that is you know
[4:03] That kind of counters Trump, kind of counters Trump,
[4:09] but also somewhat optimistic that we can hopefully not
[4:14] see that strike again, right? Because the retaliation that
[4:20] came was not ideal. Now, Iran literally just seconds
[4:26] ago. Iran, moments ago, this came
[4:31] through at 649 Pacific. Our response to Israel's
[4:37] attack on infrastructure employed fraction of our power.
[4:43] Right. I mean, they always say this. That's
[4:49] what like a chihuahua says too. This is
[4:55] a fraction of my bite. The only reason
[5:01] for... for restraint was respect
[5:06] for request de-escalation. Requested de-escalation. Uh-huh. And
[5:12] zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck
[5:17] again. Any end to this war must
[5:22] address damage to our civilian sites. So
[5:27] like compensation and so on and so
[5:33] forth, right? Okay. I mean... None of that
[5:39] sounds escalatory. So this is decent. You know, decent optimism
[5:44] here. Let me see what the ECB had this morning.
[5:50] So ECB is going to be Fed-style commentary. So let's
[5:55] throw down. So ECB just about 20 minutes ago. Let's
[6:01] see. They had... Oh, yeah. And then we just also
[6:06] had what's going on in Kuwait. Kuwait... Petrol Corp
[6:12] in Kuwait suspends operations after attacks. So
[6:18] that's not great. And these are going
[6:23] to be at Mina Abdullah and Mina
[6:29] Al Ahmadi refineries. Got it? Okay. Then
[6:35] let's see ECB commentary here. Oh, and
[6:40] then Qatar did also talk here.
[6:50] Okay, so Qatar, Qatar
[6:55] energy CEO need hostilities
[7:01] to cease. Let's see,
[7:07] lost about 20 billion
[7:12] in ARR due to
[7:18] attacks. Exports will be
[7:24] down. this is
[7:29] just some of the impact here
[7:34] exports of condensate expected to be
[7:39] down 20 sorry 24 uh lpg
[7:44] down 13 helium oh there's that
[7:50] ai chip problem down 14 and
[7:55] naptha and sulfur down six percent
[8:00] okay
[8:05] Let's see here. So that's not good, obviously.
[8:11] Let's now go look at ECB. ECB tells
[8:17] us data dependent. Old news. They always say
[8:23] this. Let's see. I've got ECB. Interest rates
[8:28] will be based on assessment of inflation. Energy
[8:34] prices will be higher. Energy prices will be
[8:40] higher. Medium term implications will
[8:46] depend on the intensity and duration. Medium term impact will
[8:51] depend on intensity and duration. Yes. uh ECB growth
[8:57] forecast of 0.9 percent in 2026 1.3
[9:03] percent in 2027 and 1.4 percent in
[9:08] 2028 which suggests they think the trough
[9:14] is this year trough suggested at this
[9:19] year okay more uncertainty and 2.6 inflation
[9:24] 2026 2.0, 2027, 2.1% in 2028. I don't know where
[9:30] they come up with that number, but whatever. ECB says it's
[9:36] not committed to any particular rate path. Data dependent. Scenarios will
[9:41] be published. Okay, we did that. We did that. Closely monitoring
[9:47] situation. Three interest rates unchanged. All three rates unchanged. They have
[9:53] like refinancing rates and all this kind of other weird stuff.
[9:59] Okay. All right. So, eh, not so
[10:04] much out of the ECB there.
[10:09] Pegseth had some comments this morning.
[10:15] Let me also see. I want
[10:20] to get a note on this.
[10:25] So, let's see here. There we
[10:31] go. Okay, so oil condensate is
[10:36] a byproduct. So I wanted to
[10:41] see what some of these things
[10:47] are. Condensate oil is a byproduct
[10:52] of natural gas extraction. Okay.
[10:58] Primarily used for gasoline, plastics, and
[11:03] diluting heavy crude. Got it. Okay.
[11:08] And then... LPG is just liquefied
[11:13] petroleum. Liqui... Lick... Ooh, I can't
[11:18] even spell liquefied. Liquified petroleum. Alright,
[11:24] that makes sense. And then we
[11:29] saw... The other thing was... Nap...
[11:34] That is... Naphtha, whatever, mixture for
[11:40] plastics. Okay. And then, yeah. Okay. And
[11:45] then, and then sulfur and helium. Okay.
[11:51] Helium for chips. Helium in part for
[11:57] chips. Okay. So Hegseth, let's show this
[12:02] back up over here. Hegseth says Iran
[12:08] has, oops, Iran has the ability to
[12:14] make the right choices for it should
[12:19] not target allies iran knows when you hit
[12:25] karg island what they spell that weird iran
[12:30] knows when you hit what are they saying
[12:36] iran knows when you hit car island we
[12:41] can hold anything at issue pentagon going to
[12:47] congress for money posture and future middle east
[12:52] will be based on our national security iran
[12:58] still retains some missile capabilities we're taking counter
[13:03] measures up to trump to decide when
[13:08] we've achieved what we've needed
[13:14] to. Okay. Alright. You know.
[13:19] Alright. Fine. Karg. Karg Island.
[13:24] Comment. Then up to Trump
[13:29] to decide when we've achieved
[13:34] our goals. And then Tulsi
[13:40] mentions Trump and Israel have
[13:45] differing goals. Alright. Then let's
[13:50] see here. What
[13:56] else? We had the Semref refinery in the Red
[14:01] Sea was hit. Toronto retaliated with a missile strike.
[14:07] We saw that. We have bear flattening points to
[14:13] a tightening of financial conditions, which we'll throw that
[14:18] under the Fed section. Bear flattening today. Tightening of
[14:24] financial conditions as rates rise. Also, mind you, not
[14:29] great for private credit. Right, because you're gonna see
[14:35] more pain in private credit under higher rates. We've got economic data.
[14:41] This is just building permits. Roughly, that's all now. New home sales
[14:46] miss at 587 versus 722. I never really care about the real
[14:52] estate number. Wholesale inventories, month over month, negative 0.5% versus the survey
[14:58] of 0.2. Wholesale trade matches expectations. Okay, that's boring. nothing
[15:03] really exciting there okay tightening of financial conditions as
[15:09] rates rise bad for private credit but historically uh
[15:15] bear uh flattening is bearish stocks that's historical but
[15:21] i actually think today is uh potentially going to
[15:27] see more of an update recovery i think some
[15:32] of the worst has already been priced in this
[15:38] morning copper copper might be worth looking at let's
[15:44] look at copper copper prices
[15:50] okay spot price for copper i
[15:56] need a chart copper spot price
[16:02] chart okay do we got where's
[16:08] my chart you're gonna load what
[16:14] good does this do me there
[16:19] we go okay so copper is
[16:25] interesting because it's an industrial metal
[16:31] that is typically seen as a
[16:37] barometer of the economy and uh
[16:43] we literally did the bear bull scale in the course live maybe you missed it
[16:49] chris yeah yes jp even yeah j paul even responds right away and says that
[16:55] all right so um yeah december 30th i mean we've given up any gains that
[17:01] copper is seeing this year and we're now back at december of 25 levels and
[17:07] a lot of this is because of the war so i
[17:12] do think that's interesting this decline
[17:18] in this as an industrial metal
[17:23] let me uh grab a shot
[17:28] of that so the start of
[17:34] the year was here and there
[17:39] we go okay so copper so
[17:45] copper given up its gains for
[17:50] the year since the war started
[17:55] um Sometimes copper falling rapidly
[18:01] can be seen as recessionary. Sometimes. You know,
[18:07] probably way too soon to tell anything here.
[18:12] Okay, good. Let's now go see how... Yields
[18:18] are doing okay. Good. Look at this. Literally in the alpha report this morning, I
[18:23] said, watch for the 10 year yield to go back down to 4.26 from 4.3.
[18:28] It's literally at 4.27. Well, now I just went right back to 4.27. But as
[18:34] I started saying that it was at 4.26. I'm like, okay, that's bullish. That's good.
[18:39] That's good for a recovery today. That's great. That's a great
[18:45] early indicator. So I like to see that. And then Brent
[18:50] is almost two full dollars off of 132. So or sorry,
[18:56] off of 113. So that's not bad either. Not bad. Okay.
[19:03] let's go see what what else is news today but yeah i think we
[19:09] had a pretty good alpha report today and i think today the alpha report's
[19:15] gonna play out really well that's still very uh i mean so far it's
[19:21] playing out exactly as planned we'll see how it ends up all right here's
[19:27] some more color on that hexeth yapping Hegseth said
[19:33] the war in Iran is different from the
[19:39] previous operation and that Tehran couldn't be trusted
[19:44] to abandon its nuclear program on its own.
[19:50] See, that doesn't sound good, right? That's not
[19:56] ideal. So Hegseth, this time is different. Iran
[20:01] can't be trusted to end their nuclear program.
[20:07] We will finish this. Yeah, none
[20:12] of that sounds good. Our objectives
[20:17] given by the America first president
[20:23] remain what they were on day
[20:28] one. No time has been set.
[20:33] No time set to end conflict.
[20:38] That's not ideal. Whoa. US has
[20:44] sunk 120 Iranian ships now. Wow,
[20:49] we're actually at 7,000 targets now.
[20:54] Now at 7,000 targets, last update.
[21:01] A-10 attack planes and Apache helicopters are striking
[21:07] Iranian targets on the southern flank. Oh, that
[21:12] might be along the strait. Oh, that's interesting.
[21:17] The southern flank. I'm pretty sure that's along
[21:23] the strait. Let's go find out. Uh-huh. Ah,
[21:28] look at this. The southern flank is basically
[21:33] the Persian Gulf, right? Aren't A-10s warthogs? A-10...
[21:39] Yeah, I think that's what they call it.
[21:44] A-10 warthogs. It's still in active service
[21:50] with the Air Force, but it's being
[21:55] phased out. Anyway. Okay. So... Get a
[22:00] screenie here of Iran. And... Well, apparently
[22:06] my screenshot is too large. That always
[22:11] drives me nuts. Just resize the image,
[22:17] Kevin. Then you can do it. I
[22:22] know, I know. It takes time. Time
[22:28] is a valuable asset. Okay. Apache helicopters
[22:33] and... A-10s attacking southern
[22:39] flank. To me, this is a
[22:44] sign that they're starting operations to
[22:50] start securing the strait. This is
[22:56] to secure the strait, which will
[23:01] be finalized by an amphibious occupation
[23:07] of that coast along
[23:13] the southern flank. That's my take. I think they are
[23:18] cleaning house on that southern side, especially the straight, which
[23:24] is right here. And then they'll just park troops along
[23:29] it to secure it, which markets would probably reward that.
[23:35] Of course, then there's a risk that Iranians attack American
[23:40] troops there. risk obviously that American troops then come
[23:46] under fire from land. Okay, let's see here. Okay,
[23:51] countries are urging. That's fine. Iran, but Iran's not
[23:57] going to listen to that crap. Countries can urge
[24:03] all they want. U.S. is considering removing sanctions from
[24:08] Iranian oil at sea. What? So the U.S. may
[24:14] remove sanctions sanctions on Iranian oil already at
[24:19] sea to relieve pressure from rising prices. What? This just seems
[24:25] so backwards. So you're trying to punish Iran, but then you're
[24:31] going to remove sanctions on their oil, allowing them to sell
[24:37] their oil for a higher price? And that seems backwards. It
[24:43] seems backwards. Oil already at sea may see sanctions lifted against
[24:49] Iran to relieve pressure from rising prices.
[24:57] ryan's have been uh that would have all gone to china however
[25:03] it's unclear how sanctions would operate temporarily allow the purchase of russian
[25:09] oil yeah that's weird all right whatever whatever besant okay so oil
[25:15] we saw that yesterday uh oil ran all the way up to
[25:21] about 118 119. we saw that which we're we're we're nicely off
[25:27] of that right now which is bullish This morning's alpha report was
[25:33] all about watch oil come off 113, which it did, we're almost $2 off. And
[25:38] watch the 10 year come, look at that, go down to 4.26, it's right at
[25:44] 4.26 right now. That's exactly what we called. We said if that happened, the queues
[25:50] would recover and they have been. So if you've been watching those two indicators, the
[25:55] queues have done exactly as expected today. That the worst was already
[26:01] priced in in pre-market. You know, sans the first
[26:07] five minutes. Okay. Let's go jump into the journal.
[26:13] Somebody says you'd need hundreds of thousands of troops.
[26:18] Oh, yeah. No, that's not how many Trump's sending.
[26:24] I think Trump's sending, like, 2,500 Marines and 2,500
[26:29] sailors for a combined, like, 5K. Okay. Christine's talking.
[26:35] Lagarde. Cannot
[26:40] give timeline. We're starting from a good place, but
[26:46] a major shock is unfolding. That's the Iran war.
[26:52] Okay. Here we go. What U.S. Marines can do
[26:58] to help reopen the Strait. That's exactly what I
[27:04] want to see. I think it's that southern flank.
[27:10] Okay. U.S. Marines per Wall Street Journal. Let's see
[27:16] what we got over here on the Marines. The
[27:22] Marines, baby! Uh, let's see here. 2200 marines.
[27:28] Could seize islands off the southern coast as leverage or
[27:33] as a base to counter commercial shipping. Oh, interesting. An
[27:39] island. Oh, like, like maybe these. Oh, there are actually
[27:45] a lot of these little islands. Uh, see that? Look
[27:51] at that. All these over here. See, look at that.
[27:57] Hormuz Island. Oh, that's very interesting. Oh, look at that.
[28:06] How interesting. Hold on a sec.
[28:11] There we go. Okay. So here
[28:17] you have Hormuz Island. There's a
[28:23] Hormuz Portuguese castle. Wow. That's one
[28:29] hell of a castle, huh? Not.
[28:34] There's the salt goddess. What the
[28:40] hell is that? Wow. Okay. Saffron
[28:46] Valley. Oh, that's cool. That's very
[28:52] cool. Valley of statues. Rainbow Valley.
[28:57] Huh. All right. Let's take it.
[29:12] huh that's very interesting let's
[29:17] take a screenshot of that
[29:22] or moves island right under
[29:27] bandara boss uh wall street
[29:33] journal journal okay wall street
[29:38] journal thinks uh 2200 marines
[29:43] might take or uh take
[29:48] an island off the coast
[29:53] of iran and Somebody donates $5
[29:59] to say don't underestimate the Marines. I've seen way less Marines
[30:04] do more nice. I'll also journal figs give that a give
[30:10] that a little heart. It's hard that there we go heart
[30:16] Okay, so this is actually very interesting because Looking at the
[30:22] map. There's literally an a Hormuz Island in the Strait of
[30:28] Hormuz That the
[30:33] Wall Street Journal thinks can be
[30:39] used to launch counter attacks against
[30:44] Iranians fighting or shooting at ships.
[30:50] That's fascinating. Amphibious assault ships. Okay.
[30:56] In just over a week, because
[31:01] they're, they're in route from Japan.
[31:07] Amphibious assault units are in route
[31:13] from Japan. ETA, Just over a week.
[31:19] Roughly next Friday slash next weekend, we'll say. That's
[31:25] huge. Welcome, Kevin. Thanks for joining. Isn't this a
[31:30] Battlefield Conquest? No kidding. I actually never played Battlefield,
[31:36] but it could be. I don't even touch DJT
[31:42] stock. I don't go anywhere near that. No, no,
[31:48] no, no. No, I don't think the ticker should
[31:54] be DJT either. I think it should be SCA. Okay, I won't
[32:00] finish saying it. The Marine Expedition Unit is a self-sustained operation, mobile
[32:05] base, four elements, ground combat, armored vehicle aviation unit of Ospreys, helicopters,
[32:11] jet fighters. Ospreys are badass. I had an Osprey fly like probably
[32:17] about 1,100 feet above my home. May have been a subscriber. Ha
[32:23] ha ha ha. But it was so badass because like
[32:28] when you're on the ground and one of those is 1100
[32:34] feet above you, you're just like shaking. So imagine one of
[32:40] those one of those puppies like attacking you, dude. Oh, my
[32:46] gosh. Those things are so cool. Anyway. specializes in
[32:51] conducting raids by sea and by air iran has closest rate
[32:57] of her moves blah blah blah blah blah forces of reopening
[33:02] and straight launch sites production capability warehouses missiles drone sea mines
[33:08] okay uh tuesday u.s military dropped a 5 000 pound deep
[33:13] penetrator munitions on hardened iranian sites along the coastlines okay that's
[33:19] interesting tuesday dropped 5k bombs, pound
[33:25] bombs, on Iranian targets along the
[33:30] coast. My brother is on an
[33:35] MEU and is freaking pumped. Nice!
[33:41] That's awesome. Okay. So, the island,
[33:46] I think I should also mention,
[33:51] the island also has a salt
[33:57] goddess and saffron valley. It's kind
[34:02] of cool, actually. I want to
[34:08] see the salt goddess. I want to get out of
[34:13] my Osprey to visit the salt goddess. Yeah, yeah, oh,
[34:19] that's funny. Possible landing site. See, look at that. They
[34:24] actually even mentioned it, too. Hormuz Island. Which I guess
[34:30] is spelled in America with a U. Even though they
[34:36] seem to spell it with an O. Okay, got it.
[34:41] Yeah. Okay. Oops. Let's do... That and then
[34:47] where to go back over here
[34:52] Wall Street Journal map map Slap
[34:57] that in over here Okay Okay,
[35:03] Iran controls a number of small
[35:08] islands off the coast they conceal
[35:13] boats in caves Oh, that's interesting
[35:18] instead of destroying cars oil infrastructure
[35:23] Marines could seize the island interesting
[35:31] could also seize karg island and
[35:36] use the oil tanks as leverage
[35:42] interesting yeah and then that way
[35:48] it doesn't damage it or destroy
[35:54] it uh prevents uh damaging the
[36:00] oil infrastructure yeah that's that's interesting
[36:05] okay uh let's see here iranian
[36:11] okay there's another one kashim kashim
[36:17] island which is home to a
[36:22] large desalination plant, or Qeshm Island, home
[36:28] to a large desal plant. Okay. Marines
[36:34] could potentially seize Qish Island, tiny economic
[36:39] hub, or the rocky Hormuz Island, where
[36:45] Tehran docks small attack ships. Aha. Okay.
[36:51] Iran docks small attack ships here. This is a very interesting piece. "Positioning
[36:57] Marines off the Iran's coast rather than inside Iran itself could be a
[37:03] loophole that allowed Trump to claim he has kept his promise of not
[37:09] putting boots on the ground in Iran." Yeah, right. Let's see what the
[37:15] commentary is on this. "The Pokemon live on Ketchum Island?" "We detected connectivity
[37:20] issues, therefore were unable to load the comment section."
[37:26] What's wrong with my connectivity? Damn.
[37:31] Alright. No reading the Wall Street
[37:37] Journal comments. Fine then. "Karg was
[37:42] a Battlefield 3 map"? Was it
[37:47] really? Let me see. "Karg". "Karg
[37:52] Battlefield 3 map". "Karg Island". No
[37:58] freaking way! Uh, oh, that's an
[38:03] ad. Where's the map? Gallery. Oh
[38:08] yeah, look at that! Oil tankers.
[38:13] Or that may have been a
[38:19] cargo. This is just a bunch
[38:24] of random pics. Let me see if
[38:30] I can get a better website here. How interesting. One
[38:35] of the most underrated maps. Karg Island. Map was so
[38:41] fun. Wow, yeah, look at that! There are the oil
[38:46] tanks on fire. Oh, that's hilarious. Yeah, there they are.
[38:52] More oil tanks right here, here. Those look like propane.
[38:57] Wow! Very interesting. Sunny says, "What's the next stop for
[39:03] Tesla?" Oh, let's go see what's going on with Tesla.
[39:10] TESLA! Marines do not need congressional approval. The president's
[39:15] own, he can place Marines anywhere without getting congressional
[39:21] approval. Oh, that's interesting. Alright, so Tesla, uh, let's
[39:26] see, it's dippy doodlod. Uh, yeah, unfortunately, it's now
[39:31] under the 100-day moving average as well. Uh, next
[39:37] stop's 347. Ugh. We need to do a Battlefield
[39:42] livestream today for, for research purposes? Yeah! Don't
[39:48] tempt me with a video game. Or worse,
[39:53] a blonde and a video game. Okay, economists
[39:59] don't see a recession until oil hits 138
[40:05] and stays there for weeks. Okay, okay. So,
[40:10] jobs. Somebody says, are you buying more stocks
[40:16] this week? Well, you know, I think...
[40:22] I'm really hopeful this Iran war ends. Geopolitics are almost always
[40:28] a buy the dip opportunity. Almost always. And I do think
[40:33] that we'll have a nice rebound in the labor market. But
[40:39] if you wanted more confidence, you could probably wait 15 days.
[40:45] And it may be too late to get the best dip in 15
[40:51] days, but in 15 days you get the next jobs report already. It's
[40:57] kind of crazy to think that, you know, the March jobs report is
[41:02] already coming with February revisions on April 3rd. And so if at all
[41:08] you're worried about that February negative 92,000 jobs report, you can wait until,
[41:14] you know, February 3rd. But, yeah. You know, is there is there
[41:19] potentially a rationale to, you know, typically do a little bit? A lot of
[41:25] that also depends on on where you stand with just capital and and, you
[41:31] know, how exposed you are to debt or margin. So. you know
[41:37] 15 days from now we could have already taken carg island or
[41:43] whatever and secured the straight and the market you know skyrockets on
[41:48] that as oil plummets right so uh who knows but uh let's
[41:54] write this this recession commentary down recession at 138 for weeks recession
[42:00] 128 138 on oil for weeks all right
[42:06] Let's write this down. This is Wall
[42:11] Street Journal. War has caused disruption to
[42:17] oil. Consensus is temporary oil shock. 50
[42:22] economists. 50 economists between March 16 to
[42:28] 18. Recession risk at 32% up from
[42:33] 27% in January. That's actually not that
[42:38] much higher. Average response
[42:44] was oil would rise to 138.
[42:50] Okay. Oil elevated for eight plus
[42:55] weeks. Seems to be a... How
[43:00] should I put it? Seems to
[43:05] be what some are targeting. Straight
[43:11] of Hermos fully reopened by mid-April.
[43:16] And I will put a recession
[43:21] in my forecast if not. Okay.
[43:27] Um... Economists, some economists,
[43:32] expect Hormuz to be fully
[43:37] reopened by mid-April. That could
[43:42] work. That could work if
[43:47] Marines take control next weekend.
[43:53] So that would be around
[43:58] the end of the month,
[44:03] 28th, 29th, March 28, 29.
[44:08] And April 3, jobs rebound.
[44:15] Right? So that week's going to be very
[44:21] interesting. Let's see what else they say. No,
[44:27] boring, boring, boring. Okay, I mean, that's a
[44:33] reasonable expectation. Magic 8, I mean, to some
[44:39] extent it is. It feels optimistic. It all
[44:45] depends on that straight. Okay. What else? What
[44:51] else have we? We have resignation, intelligence, US
[44:57] citizen now run. Okay. Proposed more leaning capital
[45:02] rules for big banks.
[45:08] Oh, that's funny. Just two days ago, I was thinking about how, what is it,
[45:13] Greg Abel has that, he has those big shoes to fill over at Berkshire Hathaway.
[45:17] And I'm like, man, it would suck to be him because every decision you make,
[45:22] people are going to doubt you and be like, you're not Buffett. Everything you do
[45:26] right, people will just call it lucky. Everything you do wrong, people will say, Buffett
[45:30] would have done better. It's kind of like the worst job, I feel like, to
[45:35] follow those footsteps. Although the guy is getting compensated quite well, so I'm sure he'll
[45:39] be fine.
[45:44] So here's an interesting story. JP Morgan, we're
[45:50] going to jump to private credit. This is
[45:55] nutty. Well, I just got to sign in
[46:01] really quick. I don't know why they always
[46:06] sign me out. Maybe they don't like me.
[46:12] Well, I could probably guarantee that. But I
[46:17] don't like the Doomers much either. So it's
[46:23] mutual. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer funds
[46:28] away to short private credit. Banks now
[46:34] offering ways to short private
[46:39] credit. They'll do anything for
[46:44] money. They'll do anything for
[46:49] money. Oh man. Let's see
[46:54] here. The firms have assembled
[46:59] baskets of stocks. Banks are
[47:04] assembling baskets of stocks to
[47:10] short, including... European firms with private
[47:15] credit exposure that have not yet corrected as
[47:21] much as US private credit. To me, it
[47:26] just feels almost like inducing the very pain,
[47:32] right? Short it down. Bank of America is
[47:37] doing that as well. Bank of America, JP
[47:43] Morgan, and Goldman are doing it. Wow, it does sound like
[47:49] 2008. It's like that big short movie, right? Sounds like a
[47:55] big short. Hey man, get in on this contract. Can government
[48:00] or big hedge fund short brand oil to artificially suppress the
[48:06] price and pump the market? Can the market learn? Yeah, I
[48:12] mean, it's actually surprising that oil isn't already a lot higher.
[48:18] uh, than, than what it is
[48:23] now, you know, with, with the
[48:29] extent of this war. So some
[48:34] of it is, is potentially, you
[48:40] know, being heavily moved by traitors.
[48:46] Elizabeth Warren to Warsh, your name
[48:51] appears in the Epstein files. What?
[48:57] Kevin Warsh in the Epstein files
[49:02] was not on my bingo board.
[49:08] Anyway. Yeah. All right.
[49:13] Qatar says that will take years
[49:19] to repair. Wow. Let's see here.
[49:24] Qatar supplies a fifth of the
[49:29] world's LNG. Let's write that down
[49:35] here. Qatar supplies one fifth of
[49:40] world's LNG. Damage will take three
[49:46] to five years to repair. How
[49:51] does it take three to five
[49:56] years to repair? Is it just
[50:02] that deep, that damage? Wow. Crazy.
[50:08] Okay, fine. Oh, bonds, let me
[50:13] get an update on this. Ah,
[50:19] 10-year moved up again a little
[50:25] bit, back to 2.7. Brent almost
[50:30] back to 1.12. Okay, we saw
[50:36] this. Let's see. Air Baltic Bonds
[50:42] tumbled. Fuel prices up. Sock Gen.
[50:48] Ways deal linked to status center.
[50:53] Okay. Oh, they are. They're only offering that
[50:59] to hedge funds as a way to short private
[51:05] credit. Oh, what is this? Oh, OK. All right.
[51:11] Let's see what's in here. What is this? The
[51:17] Fed's 200 billion dollar bank stimulus. What is this?
[51:23] Federal Reserve is about to give America's biggest lenders
[51:29] an extra 200 billion dollars of capital play with
[51:35] because of the relaxation of regulations, regulations, right? Yeah.
[51:41] Loosen capital rules. that will fuel stock buybacks lending and
[51:46] trading too much haste in deploying all that spare cash in an
[51:52] overheating economy hmm goldman morgan stanley chase will have to think twice
[51:58] about handing billions of dollars straight back to investors through buybacks yeah
[52:03] but when are those rules expected to come in capital rules vice
[52:09] chair jp morgan has 60 billion of excess common equity tier one
[52:14] capital new republican proposals could boost that big banks are about to
[52:20] get a huge capital boost Two
[52:26] new proposals are expected to be released
[52:32] after the Fed holds an open board
[52:37] meeting Thursday. JP Morgan will be the
[52:43] biggest beneficiary. Buy back stock or they
[52:49] could lend to financial markets. Right. Okay.
[52:55] Got it. So that is interesting. Let's
[53:00] throw that into the Fed section. $200
[53:06] billion of looser capital rules for banks.
[53:12] That's actually quite bullish.
[53:20] should be quite bullish once uh
[53:25] what's what's it called um the
[53:30] rules are finalized 200 billion dollars
[53:35] is massive for either bank buybacks
[53:41] or lending jp morgan city wells
[53:46] and bank of america biggest beneficiaries
[53:51] that's a lot of money to
[53:56] lend okay got it What's this? SockGen
[54:02] is mulling a risk transfer of some of its exposure to data
[54:08] centers. Uh-huh. Free up capital. Some investors are concerned the pace of
[54:14] technological change could leave the facilities obsolete by the time leases expire.
[54:19] Yeah, I agree with that. That's why I'm like super bearish long
[54:25] term on stocks like CoreWeave. I'm just like, oh they're
[54:31] gonna be bag holders of this older technology like
[54:37] even what xai is buying or um you know
[54:43] nbis or whatever all right that doesn't surprise me
[54:49] okay what else that's all old let's go to
[54:55] the information see if there's any fun ai news
[55:01] today Canva was
[55:06] smart to hold off on IPO a couple years ago.
[55:12] Canva was one of the hot startups to watch for
[55:18] IPO candidates, but it sat out last year's IPO class
[55:23] and now finds itself in an awkward spot. Well, tough
[55:29] to IPO right now. Data center developer that has barely
[55:35] raised capital. Giga Energy generated 270 million in revenue in
[55:41] its lifetime, raised just 3.4 million in equity funding. Oh,
[55:46] nice. i wonder what their expenses have been though on
[55:52] on that probably all of it okay uber we saw that
[55:58] on rivian talked about that this morning in the course live
[56:03] did some analysis on rivian and then we saw the qualtrics
[56:09] deal okay so nothing new there let's see the ft see
[56:14] that's actually you know if you combine this as reasons to
[56:20] be bullish right uh combined reasons to be bullish okay uh
[56:26] geopolitics geopolitics are usually
[56:32] a buy the dip you've
[56:37] got april three jobs hopefully
[56:42] show rebound from february pain
[56:47] okay um and phoebus marine
[56:52] group shows up uh late
[56:57] next week hopefully reopens or
[57:03] moves Israel says
[57:07] they'll wait on striking
[57:12] any more infrastructure, right?
[57:17] Oil and gas. And
[57:22] Iran says they'll restrain
[57:27] their counterattacks if U.S.
[57:33] and Israel stop attacking
[57:38] oil, gas infrastructure, right?
[57:43] Those things sound optimistic.
[57:48] Oh, that's optimistic.
[57:54] you know because then if iran war
[57:59] chillaxes and jobs gain economy can easily
[58:04] bounce through this that's the hope right
[58:10] that's the that's the the bull take
[58:15] if you will uh makes makes by
[58:20] the dipping either ideal well makes by
[58:26] the dipping ideal uh you know
[58:31] between now and April 3. April 3
[58:37] would have the most color in sight,
[58:42] but maybe not the best price. Okay.
[58:47] Iranian hospital in Dubai closes as UAE
[58:53] suffers third week of attacks. Armageddon scenario
[58:58] for gas markets as Qatar is hit
[59:03] by missiles. Iran sets its price to
[59:09] end the war. Ooh, I want to
[59:14] see. Iran's demand to end war. Okay.
[59:25] but yeah and if these bullish things happen somebody says what would have to happen
[59:30] to get btc back above 80. uh i mean if as i just described you
[59:35] get a good jobs rebound and the war looks like it's ending and you're opening
[59:41] up hormuz that that would be pretty bullish to bring back 80k btcs right assuming
[59:46] all this if you take if you had to take a month call on cues
[59:52] what would you go for um
[59:58] Well, I mean, a month, you're waiting two weeks, so, you know,
[60:03] 45 days, I feel like, would be more desirable, you know, if
[60:09] you went out. Or even over here, like, if you go to
[60:15] May 15th, right, you could go, wow, they're actually pricey. Wait, hold
[60:21] on. I'm on puts. There we go. Yeah. So... You know,
[60:27] you want liquidity, so you want the open interest to be more elevated.
[60:33] You know, 57 days out, 605, because that's going to get you your
[60:39] 607 target is in the money. 600, you know, those have good open
[60:45] interest, those levels. 600, 605, 57 days out. You know, that's assuming all
[60:51] that stuff happens, you know. April, going out 30 days to April 17th,
[60:57] you know, you're saving on 600, you're saving... Ah, that's
[61:03] $12. And if you go all the way out to
[61:08] May, which buys you more time, less theta decay that
[61:14] way, you're looking at $19. Yeah, I mean, it's like
[61:19] 40% cheaper, so I get it. But, you know, the
[61:25] volatility is going to be wild. Anyway, let's see here.
[61:31] Iran views the conflict as an existential threat. Well, duh.
[61:36] We need a guarantee and won't retreat even if the
[61:42] war continues for one year. Iranian... if iran
[61:47] is destroyed the whole region is destroyed the guard
[61:53] the iranian the iranian or islamic revolutionary guard is
[61:59] ideologically motivated they're not scared to die they are
[62:05] convinced this re this was regime change and if
[62:11] they agree to a ceasefire the us and israel
[62:17] will come back right if iran is destroyed the
[62:22] whole region is destroyed uh that implies
[62:28] Implies more Iranian counterattacks.
[62:34] Retaliation, I could say.
[62:39] Per FT, guards are
[62:44] IRGC. 100 EK strong
[62:50] is ideologically motivated to
[62:55] prevent regime change. Okay.
[63:01] And need guarantees. America
[63:06] and Israel won't be
[63:11] back. Hmm.
[63:20] claims that the republic wants to
[63:26] negotiate is delusional so iran's foreign
[63:31] minister so far uh oh hold
[63:36] on there's an ecb update ecb
[63:42] adverse scenario why is that there
[63:47] twice slap that into here ecb
[63:52] adverse scenario sees inflation at 3.5
[63:58] in 2026. yikes okay so back
[64:03] to this
[64:11] because i went to edit that i think
[64:17] it deleted my other comment that's stupid okay
[64:23] let me delete that one stupid dang it
[64:28] kevin yeah that's exactly what it just did
[64:34] dang it okay that's fine and it wasn't
[64:40] that much iran deal requirements okay so foreign
[64:45] minister foreign uh minister of iran says claims
[64:51] of truths or negotiations are delusional.
[64:56] Okay. Then we have they fear US
[65:02] and Israel coming back. IRGC, 150k strong,
[65:07] ideologically motivated to prevent regime change. Truce.
[65:13] Okay. Oh yeah, and then we wrote
[65:19] if Iran is destroyed, the whole region
[65:24] is destroyed. This is their threat. That's
[65:30] their threat. Yeah, like you say, scorched
[65:35] earth threat. Okay. Partially, straightforward moves
[65:41] would be partially weaponized. Israel says they're ready to
[65:47] go for as long as required. Yeah, because Iran's
[65:52] implying they're ready to go for a year. Iran
[65:58] implies ready to go for a year. And Israel
[66:04] says they're ready as long as necessary. Oh, another
[66:10] ECB update just came through. ECB...
[66:15] Looks at a Q2/Q3 recession
[66:20] in the Eurozone. Ooh, because
[66:26] of that inflation. That would
[66:31] be here. ECB adverse scenario
[66:36] shows recession. That's soon. In
[66:42] Q2/Q3 2026. More intense prolonged.
[66:47] And then they have a
[66:52] severe scenario. Oh, that's okay.
[66:58] The severe scenario shows recession.
[67:08] with headline inflation inflation at 4.4 in 2026. aha
[67:14] all right so they got their three scenarios i
[67:19] guess okay the us doesn't know how to start
[67:25] or finish a war in the region says someone
[67:31] who is close to the irgc we're not going
[67:37] to sit here and let the zionist regime and
[67:43] the us establish a new order u.s have vowed
[67:49] of u.s and israel about to destroy missile capabilities
[67:55] yeah Also wants to make
[68:01] sure that the world economy pays a sufficient price so they
[68:06] will think twice about resuming the war. I mean, that seems
[68:12] to be exactly the strategy right now. Iran wants to damage
[68:17] world economy to impart a price on the globe to make
[68:23] anyone think twice about attacking Iran again.
[68:29] Uh, most effective weapon seems to be closing this straight. I think they
[68:35] know that. I think they'll fight pretty hard to keep that straight, as
[68:41] much as they can. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over
[68:46] the past two years revealed how disruptive the threat of attacks can be
[68:52] over a lengthy period. Also true. Mmm, alright. Welcome, AnotherAmerican91.
[68:59] What else have we got here? Japan, softbank fee,
[69:05] KIPWC, US regularities unveil plan to cut wrap capital
[69:11] requirements by 4.8%. Let's see here. Bank of America
[69:16] apologizes for the bet against European private credit. Are
[69:22] you kidding me? We were just covering this in
[69:27] Bloomberg. Banks now offering away to short private credit.
[69:33] Bank of America now apologizing
[69:38] for this short offering. Okay,
[69:43] hold on a sec. ECB
[69:48] comment again. ECB here says
[69:54] severe scenario. Severe scenario shows
[69:59] inflation continuing to rise. to 6.3
[70:05] percent in q127 wow that's with the recession before
[70:10] that that's wild because their severe scenario also shows
[70:16] a recession in q2 q3 26. that's not good
[70:22] i'll always subscribe to throw shade hell yeah another
[70:28] american 91 let's go uh all right recommendation has
[70:34] been withdrawn based on a review of new new
[70:40] information okay bank of america has withdrawn a recommendation that
[70:46] clients bet against european countries and potentially exposed to private credit
[70:51] shocks saying it made factual inaccuracies which are on a recommendation
[70:57] that clients bet against european companies uh who made kind of
[71:02] factual inaccuracies thank you recent sales commentary that had circulated which
[71:08] advised betting against private credit have
[71:13] been pulled based on a review of
[71:19] new information. Oh, okay. Okay. Now they're
[71:25] saying, oh, JK. They're basically saying, JK,
[71:30] JK, JK, JK. That was wrong information.
[71:36] And we apologize. Oh, man. They probably
[71:42] got some nasty phone calls. Okay. All
[71:47] right. Let's go. Let's go see.
[71:53] Some of the other political ones, because sometimes they have
[71:59] good insights on the war. How the left plans to
[72:05] start winning primaries again? Let's see. Fine, after Tron says
[72:11] Israel won't attack Ron Gauss fields anymore. Yeah, we've heard
[72:17] that before. That number could move. Could move in what
[72:22] direction? Taking more money. I think that number could move.
[72:28] Obviously, it takes some money to kill bad guys. Okay.
[72:34] Alright. Nothing really in Axios.
[72:45] okay what about post uh let's see airfares are
[72:51] spiking sustained elevation gas prices could bring a reckoning
[72:56] for oil economic fallout hits the rest of the
[73:02] world harder drones over army base where rubio hexeth
[73:07] live race security concerns advances in a bind supporting
[73:13] a war that could cost him politically mediterranean diet
[73:19] I love that there's more coverage coming out over the Mediterranean diet.
[73:25] I'm such a big fan of, uh, I've never heard of this,
[73:30] found the DASH diet. I don't know what DASH is. That I
[73:36] haven't heard of before. What's DASH? DASH. DASH stands for Dietary Approach
[73:42] to Stop Hypertension. Okay, so what is it? Vegetables, nuts, and whole
[73:47] grains. Yeah! Big fan. I mean, that's basically the core of the
[73:53] Mediterranean diet anyway, so old days. Okay. What else?
[73:59] Polio, travel advisory, both parties peer. Okay, boring, boring,
[74:05] boring. Okay, let's go to political. Oh, let's go
[74:11] also to economist. Recession, which I argue hasn't happened
[74:17] since we'll kill inflation. Well, yeah, I think the
[74:23] reason, and that's the standard thinking, is that a
[74:29] recession will kill inflation, which is correct in the
[74:35] longer term. I think the reason they're saying
[74:40] this is because of oil prices. I think
[74:46] their expectation here of higher inflation versus deflation,
[74:51] even during recession, would be the expectation that
[74:57] higher oil prices will lead to higher headline
[75:02] inflation, even as underlying core inflation uh shrinks
[75:08] or or just straight up deflates right expectation there
[75:13] we go uh war in iran is making donald
[75:19] trump weaker and angrier nice image okay let's take
[75:24] a look at that all right let's see what
[75:30] we got cooking here and then we got to
[75:35] do a summary all right and then how's the
[75:41] oil doing well it's still at 111. it's good
[75:46] all right let's see here No politician can deny political gravity like
[75:52] the man whose supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan 6th only for him to be
[75:57] re-elected with a bigger share of the vote. And it's hard to imagine a crisis
[76:03] more precisely engineered to intercept the trajectory of his presidency than this ill-judged, heedless war
[76:08] against Iran. Even a short war will alter the course of his second term, one
[76:13] that lasts months will bring it crashing to the earth. The fight against Iran. The
[76:19] reason is that the fight against Iran diminishes Mr. Trump's three political superpowers. His
[76:24] ability to impose his own reality in the world, his remorseless use of leverage
[76:30] and dominion over the Republican Party. Uh-huh. Wars accelerate change. Trump has shown a
[76:36] remarkable ability to twist facts. sure enough he insists that he has already triumphed
[76:42] in iran yet the war tells the truth of its own iran's regime cannot
[76:47] win in any conventional sense but despite widespread spread destruction of infrastructure and the
[76:53] assassinations of senior leaders iran's regime survives and its 400 kilograms or so of
[76:59] near bomb ready uranium remains at large i mean this is true
[77:05] So far, nothing really to write down here. This is just commentary, it seems, but
[77:10] I'll be ready to write something down if they say something interesting. Parallel war against
[77:15] the global energy industry. Brent crude spiking over 110 now, which it is. It's true.
[77:20] Time is on Iran's side. I mean, that's a good point. I actually think that's
[77:25] a good point. See, I'm going to try to cut out the economists bias because
[77:30] they don't like Trump. Right. And just kind of get to the meat. Which I
[77:36] think this is actually a really good point
[77:41] right here. Time is on Iran side. Economist
[77:47] claims time is on Iran side. I agree
[77:52] the more the or the longer the war
[77:58] goes on, the more the stock market falls,
[78:03] the more oil rises, the more yields bear
[78:08] steepen and the more pissed off Trump gets.
[78:15] Iran probably realizes this. Hence their, how
[78:21] should I put it, ability to re-ramp
[78:26] strikes when they want. You know, it
[78:32] indicates some intentional planning. That is this
[78:38] chart I'll pull up. Chart, chart, chart,
[78:43] chart, chart, chart, chart, yesterday. Boom. Got
[78:49] it. That's this puppy. You know, the launch volumes
[78:55] moving up. Somebody says, I kind of feel like I'm at the
[79:01] point where America is too dumb for democracy. Not going to lie.
[79:06] Electing Donald Trump was the nail in the coffin, says another American
[79:12] 91. Somebody says, electing Biden showed how far this country had gotten
[79:18] in terms of incompetence. I mean, in fairness, Biden wasn't like demented
[79:23] when he ran for office, as far as we could tell, right?
[79:29] Like, That last debate that Biden, like, stumbled out onto the stage on, which we
[79:34] covered live, you know, I covered my reaction live. We knew instantly that Biden had
[79:39] to go. I think I made, like, 17 videos going, Biden needs to drop out.
[79:43] And everybody's like, he's not going to drop out. He's not going to drop out.
[79:47] Like, I got so many hate comments. People go, he's not going to drop out.
[79:52] And then he drops out. And I'm like, see, I told you so. But no,
[79:56] Biden really decayed in office. You know, that was... And it was a fast decline.
[80:02] Yeah, that was a rapid decline, which is unfortunate. I think Biden was in
[80:08] part seen as a little bit of a continuation of Obama, but maybe probably
[80:14] a little bit too progressive. You know, it got a little too, probably too
[80:20] run by the cronies inside the Biden White House. Anyway. Okay, so,
[80:26] by contrast, Iran appears to have plenty of drones. For as long as
[80:31] it restricts traffic in the Strait, oil prices will climb and the damage
[80:37] to the world economy will grow. Let's see. Trump then quickly reversed course,
[80:43] pretending he never needed the help after saying he needed help to open
[80:49] the Strait. Grant safe passage to the Strait. Let's see. In recent days,
[80:55] signaling that it will grant safe passage to the Strait from the country
[81:01] is a sign that it needs to use access as a bargaining tool.
[81:06] Okay. Okay. given that
[81:12] leverage iran may hold out for more than just a return to the status
[81:18] quo it may ask for sanctions to be lifted or an american commitment to
[81:24] abandon some of its bases or restrain israel if recession looms in the us
[81:30] and the stock market starts to fall would trump escalate by seizing karg island
[81:36] or would he buckle right so uh economists economist argues seizing
[81:41] Karg Island, which the Wall Street Journal
[81:47] suggested could intensify pressures. Answer depends on
[81:52] Trump's hold on his party. 13 American
[81:57] service members have died. Seizing an island
[82:03] or extracting the 460 kilograms of highly
[82:08] enriched uranium would put more American lives
[82:13] on the line. 13 dead so far.
[82:25] In private, many elected Republicans are seething. Mr. Trump's failure to heed warnings, typical contempt
[82:30] of his strategy, and his hubris in thinking he knows better than people who really
[82:35] do. Republicans are now highly likely to lose control of the House in the midterm
[82:40] elections. Their chances of losing the Senate has risen by 10 points. The worse the
[82:45] defeat, the lamer duck the president will be, and the less influence he will have.
[82:50] As the war drags on, Mr. Trump could seek a way out and look for
[82:55] a win somewhere else, like in Cuba. But Mr. Trump is not in
[83:01] full control of this war. Iran's attack on a gas hub in Qatar
[83:07] shows it has cards to play. Yeah, that's true. I mean, The Economist
[83:13] has a good balancing argument here. You know, The Economist suggests the Qatar
[83:19] gas field attack shows Iran still has power. This kind of suggests if
[83:25] we took an island, Iran might lash
[83:30] out again at other infrastructure. Which, if
[83:36] Iran does that, Trump says he'll destroy
[83:42] Karg Island. That's where you get Tanya.
[83:48] Kiss and bye-bye! Kiss and bye-bye! That's
[83:54] bad. Okay. We did like a gif
[83:59] of Tanya. Tanya, C4.
[84:07] Uh, where... Let me see if I
[84:12] can just YouTube one. Tanya... No, there's
[84:18] not a good one I could find
[84:23] quickly. Oh well. Alright. So anyway. Uh,
[84:29] let's see here. Fighting ended tomorrow. It
[84:34] could take four to six weeks to
[84:40] restore oil production. Uh, either way, uh,
[84:45] once fighting ends, uh, restoring oil production
[84:51] should take four to six weeks or
[84:57] more. Okay. Let's see. These are some other
[85:02] things Trump could do. Lash out at home. Blah, blah,
[85:08] blah, blah, blah. Makes Trump a very bad loser. Be
[85:13] warned. He makes a very bad loser. It's hard to
[85:19] see how Mr. Trump ends up being a winner in
[85:24] Iran. Be warned. He makes a very bad loser. Nice.
[85:29] U.S. Embassy in Lithuania. The U.S. will provide further calibrated
[85:35] sanctions relief for the Belarusian sector. U.S., uh... Okay, sanctions
[85:41] relief on Belarus, got it. All right, what do we
[85:47] got over here? Q's are still trying to crawl their
[85:53] way up. Crawl. It's, you know, it's been a ride
[85:58] up, you know, since the first five-minute dip. We bottomed
[86:04] over here. We're up about five bucks on the Q's.
[86:10] It's about 1%. But there's still some work to do
[86:16] here. Haifa Oil Refinery in northern Israel. Uh-oh.
[86:25] Uh, if that's true, then this talk about, okay, we're not
[86:31] going to hit our infrastructure, any oil or gas infrastructure anymore
[86:37] is wrong. Let me see. Yeah. Let me see if I
[86:43] can get some more on that. That's going to piss off
[86:49] Israel. Let's see here. Yeah. I mean, I'm getting a lot
[86:54] of hits on this. See, look at this. If you just
[87:00] look on X, big fire underway at Haifa's oil refinery complex
[87:06] in Northern Israel. Let's write that down. Uh, Israel, Israel.
[87:13] Fire reported via X at Haifa oil
[87:18] refinery, potentially from a ballistic missile. Ballistic
[87:23] missile. Here's another hit to infrastructure. It's
[87:29] not good. How is oil? No, oil's
[87:34] still at 111. Plumes of smoke. Supplies
[87:39] about 50-60% of the country's fuel. I
[87:45] don't know if that's true. Let's fact
[87:50] check that really quick.
[88:02] Okay, so... Israeli output. Let's
[88:07] see if we can get
[88:13] some... Hmm. Ah, there. I
[88:19] think that's what it's called,
[88:24] the Bazan Refinery at Haifa.
[88:30] Uh, Bazan. Bazan output. Let's
[88:36] see. Okay, Bazan Group. 197
[88:42] barrels, that's what it... It
[88:47] supplies nearly, yeah, 60% of
[88:53] domestic diesel and 50% of
[88:59] gasoline. Okay. Okay. bazan
[89:04] group they're the ones who run it
[89:10] okay run by bazan where is that
[89:16] uh that ai overview getting this from
[89:22] oh directly from here oh here we
[89:28] go 60 ah here we go all
[89:33] right well at least here's the citation
[89:39] produces 60 of israel's diesel and 50
[89:45] of gasoline hmm let's see here
[89:50] Last year it was struck two, killed
[89:56] three workers. So this is a March
[90:01] 8 article where they first claimed to
[90:07] strike. So this is their second attempt,
[90:13] at least. Now at least the second
[90:18] attempt since another strike potentially occurred on
[90:24] March 8. Carried out by Khyber Shekin
[90:29] missiles. Video circulated, visuals, okay. Let's
[90:35] see if anything else has come
[90:40] up. Direct hits by Hezbollah on
[90:45] a port in Haifa. But we
[90:50] don't know who sent this. That
[90:56] was March 10th. Some of these
[91:01] are older posts. What a mess.
[91:06] Okay. Got it. So, what else?
[91:11] We have... Let's see here. Gold
[91:16] mining stocks set to erase 2026
[91:22] gains as rate cut bets fade.
[91:27] Yeah. Oh, yeah. Gold topped on
[91:32] Warsh. Bond traders no longer
[91:38] price in any cuts. That's not a surprise.
[91:43] White House is lost in the weave. Okay.
[91:49] How's the journal? Anything new here? No. Nothing
[91:55] new here. Let's check the live blogs. That
[92:00] was Swarmer. We talked about them yesterday. That's
[92:06] Micron. Crypto.com lays off 12% of staff in
[92:11] AI pivot. Huh. Olive Garden slims down dishes
[92:17] to drive sales. New lighter portions. Oh, that's
[92:23] cute. Okay, let me see what else
[92:28] is being said. Uh, Doomburg. Let's see. Inflation target,
[92:34] fresh consequences, blah blah blah. Central banks aren't exactly
[92:40] playing with the house money, blah blah blah. This
[92:46] doesn't matter. Global hawkish reset threatens an already fragile
[92:52] Tate. Stocks look defensive as the global reset in
[92:57] interest rate pricing is settling in. settling in but
[93:03] it's far from capitulation no panic just yet but markets
[93:09] are waking up to the prolonged shock if it persists
[93:14] earnings will be next to crack bank of england is
[93:20] a warning on u.s inflation shock still seen as transitory
[93:25] okay all right let's do a little summary of what
[93:31] we've got so far a lot of info and we
[93:36] can keep hunting see what else is going on out
[93:42] there all right so Any updates on HouseHack? HouseHack's
[93:48] doing great. Still on trajectory for our Q2 release of Valuation AI. We
[93:54] got some final sign-off on some ADUs we built. Closing escrow today on
[94:00] another deal that we bought from our Wedgefinder, which we think is going
[94:05] to create like $500,000 of equity for the company. An upside equity for
[94:11] the company because it was such a good deal.
[94:17] The app found it, which is
[94:22] great. So, yeah, I think we
[94:27] are kicking butt. Okay. Let's get
[94:33] punched in here. And we'll do
[94:38] a little geopolitical summary. Geopolitical. All
[94:43] right. So, I guess we could
[94:49] loop in some of the reasons
[94:54] to be bullish as well. So,
[94:59] there are reasons to be bullish
[95:05] and bearish, obviously. But let's break
[95:10] this down. Okay,
[95:16] take a little sip here. So I don't have to do
[95:22] it during. All right, let's do it. There are some reasons
[95:27] to be bullish about what's going on in the economy and
[95:33] potentially the stock market. In this video, we're going to break
[95:39] down a timeframe for when the most ideal time to buy
[95:45] the dip might be and should the dip be bought at
[95:50] all. But first, we have to understand what's going on in Iran because there are
[95:55] some things developing that could be really good, though others argue could be bad. And
[96:00] so I think the best way to break this down is just lay it all
[96:04] on the table. So let's get right into it. So first. Donald Trump said last
[96:08] night that he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack that the Israelis conducted
[96:12] on the gas field. The Israelis said, okay, we won't do it again without working
[96:16] with the United States. Although the Israelis also said that they coordinated the strike with
[96:20] the United States. So maybe they coordinated with part of the United States and Donald
[96:24] Trump is pretending he didn't know about it or maybe he truly didn't know about
[96:28] it, but whatever. Iran's like, hey, our bite is stronger. We could attack even more
[96:34] of your infrastructure. In fact, we held back yesterday after that attack on Qatar. We
[96:39] could have done more because y'all are saying you wanna deescalate. Now, this could be
[96:45] like a little chihuahua saying their bite is actually stronger than it really is, but
[96:51] What's bearish is we woke up this morning to hear that Semref, an oil refinery
[96:55] in Saudi Arabia, which is on the Red Sea side. So Persian Gulf here and
[97:00] then all the way on the other side, the Red Sea side, you know, above
[97:04] Yemen, where the Houthis like disrupting shipping lines. That refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked
[97:09] by Iran. And then now, just about eight minutes ago, we started seeing reports that
[97:13] Iran, The Haifa oil refinery in Israel was potentially struck in this just minutes ago.
[97:19] Reports of a big fire underway at this refining complex, potentially due to a ballistic
[97:25] missile, which, you know, these things sound escalatory. That's not good. But anyway. So we
[97:31] have this talk that on one hand Trump and the Iranians are saying, okay, okay,
[97:37] we're not going to target infrastructure anymore. And then Semref gets attacked this morning and
[97:42] now the Haifa oil refinery is attacked in northern Israel, which supplies 60% of Israel's
[97:48] diesel and 50% of Israel's gasoline. So this is sort of a very important refining
[97:54] facility for Israel's economy. So we're kind of like, OK, we're hearing words that are
[98:00] good, but actions also speak louder than words. And so this isn't good. It kind
[98:05] of counters some of the optimism, which isn't good. Right now, Iran again says there
[98:11] will be zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck again and any end to this
[98:17] war must address the damage that was conducted to our civilian sites. That's what Iran
[98:23] is saying. Now, some people are reading that and saying, okay, what if the
[98:29] U.S. doesn't strike the infrastructure again? What if we just take the infrastructure? Now, this
[98:34] is a really interesting potential argument. And this has to do with the U.S. Marines
[98:40] potentially going to secure an island off the coast of, well, Iran. Now, this is
[98:46] from a Wall Street Journal suggestion. The Wall Street Journal has a pretty big
[98:52] article on this. What they suggest is that the 2,200 Marines and then about
[98:58] the 2,500 sailors that are en route or en route over to the Middle
[99:04] East right now and to the Strait could end up being used to control
[99:10] the Strait of Hormuz. And potentially what we might do with our Marines is we
[99:15] might end up taking one of these islands. And so the Wall Street Journal breaks
[99:21] down and suggests that there are these various different islands, whether it's Karg Island, Kish
[99:26] Island, Kashum Island, or Hormuz Island. It's literally an island called Hormuz Island, which is
[99:32] right in the Strait of Hormuz. But anyway, maybe these could be utilized as as
[99:37] a way to stage US troops to counterattack any kind of
[99:43] Iranian assaults against the straight itself. Now, The Economist says there's a
[99:48] really big downside risk of taking an island here. If we end up taking one
[99:54] of these islands, such as Hormuz Island here, which has Rainbow Valley. You can see
[100:00] I recently viewed Rainbow Valley. It didn't look very rainbow-ish to me. It also has
[100:06] a Portuguese castle, which looks like a pile of turd. They also have a salt
[100:12] goddess, which is not the blonde I was expecting. And then they have a Saffron
[100:18] Valley, which that's kind of cool. That one's almost got a five-star review, by the
[100:23] way. And then they've even got a Turtle Cliff over here, which didn't really look
[100:29] like it had a lot of turtles. And then there's Red Beach over here, which
[100:34] that actually did look really cool. But anyway, taking this mountainous island over here under
[100:40] Bondara Boss... Could be an opportunity for our amphibious assault units which are on the
[100:46] way from Japan. They're expected to arrive at the end of next week. So potentially
[100:52] Friday, Saturday, Sunday, somewhere in that range. They could potentially arrive in this area and
[100:58] take one of these islands and use it to help secure the Strait by counterattacking
[101:03] any kind of Iranian attacks from this coastline. We are currently using A-10s and Apache
[101:09] helicopters. as well as dropping 5,000-pound bombs along the southern flank, per
[101:15] the Department of War update today. to try to minimize some of the opportunities
[101:21] for Iran to launch strikes into the Strait. Obviously, securing the Strait is a really
[101:26] important tool for leverage. Iran's scorched earth mentality is, hey, if we can cause a
[101:31] recession in the global economy, we can show the rest of the world this is
[101:37] what happens when you attack Iran. If you mess with Iran, you guys will end
[101:42] up in a recession. Don't do it. Now, there's also talk by the Wall Street
[101:47] Journal that we could potentially take Karg Island, which is somewhere over here. Anyway, here,
[101:53] you know what? Let me cheat. I will cheat and just go to my little
[101:58] map over here. There we go. Karg Island. Oh, yeah, it's up here under the
[102:03] Bashir port. Anyway, oh, so maybe that was this. Anyway, yes, see here it's labeled
[102:08] Kark Island. Is this it? Yeah, yeah, this is it. This is it. Yeah, there
[102:14] it is. Translated in English. Carg. It's just they call it carg. Okay. You threw
[102:19] me for a loop there with the spelling. But anyway, here's the oil refining or
[102:24] sorry, the oil storage infrastructure, which was really fascinating about the storage infrastructure is the
[102:29] Wall Street Journal says Marines could also potentially take this and use it as leverage.
[102:34] If you take this, you not only control these ports, which are heavily utilized for
[102:38] oil exports from Iran, not only the storage, which can get piped here, but then
[102:43] the exports by loading it up onto oil ships over here, but it also has
[102:47] an airfield. So this is a very desirable island to take. It's just not as
[102:52] useful because it's not as close to the Strait by any means. And getting over
[102:58] there is also going to be a little bit challenging. But it could be done.
[103:03] Wall Street Journal suggests taking this could be then used as a negotiation ploy to
[103:08] try to end this war with Iran. Now the problem is the foreign minister of
[103:14] Iran says that any claims of negotiations or truths are just delusional and that
[103:20] the IRGC is 150,000 strong force of military, you know, mosaic style leadership, uh,
[103:25] uh, forces that are capable of launching their own drones and missiles whenever they
[103:31] want without centralized leadership. This is why they can keep striking, uh, even though we've
[103:37] taken out some of their leaders. We were talking about this yesterday, how their strikes
[103:41] are actually ramping up. I'll pull up the sheet again just so you could see
[103:46] it. I pulled the sheet yesterday evening. This is potentially because of the mosaic style
[103:51] of leadership that Iran has, where they have this opportunity to launch from multiple different
[103:57] regions under localized command rather than relying on centralized command. There's no single commander in
[104:02] chief, so to speak. They can decide to launch and strike their enemies centrally. as
[104:07] they'd like, which then also makes, you know, listening to the verbal commentary that, all
[104:11] right, if you don't strike our infrastructure, we won't strike yours kind of loony because
[104:15] under a mosaic style leadership, they could just sort of do what they want, which
[104:19] is problematic for negotiating with them. And I think Israel realizes this, which is why
[104:23] Israel wants to go for full regime change. But Iran knows this. And this is
[104:28] why Iran implies that they're ready to go for a year. Israel says they're ready
[104:32] to go for as long as necessary. And the problem with all this is Iran
[104:37] knows the longer this war goes on, the higher oil prices go. The higher oil
[104:41] prices go, the more the stock market goes down, the more interest rates go up,
[104:46] the more yields bear steepen, which pisses off Donald Trump because it means the bond
[104:50] market now puts more pressure on private credit which are the same funds that are
[104:55] begging trump to get money from 401ks to bail them out so everything hurts the
[105:00] longer this war goes on and iran's probably smart in that they realize that like
[105:04] i mean they could listen to really any you know financial pundit who knows i
[105:09] guess they could listen to me kevin uh as well and um and and recognize
[105:14] that the longer this goes on the more people estimate we are going to be
[105:18] in a recession Now, the European Central Bank did make an argument earlier today
[105:24] that if this war extends for a period of time, there are two potential
[105:30] scenarios. There's an adverse scenario where inflation really rises, unfortunately, to about 4.4% on
[105:35] a headline in 2026. However, there's also a severe scenario where under the severe scenario,
[105:41] we end up in a recession in the second and third quarter in Europe in
[105:46] 2026. And inflation actually continues to rise all the way up to 6.3% in the
[105:51] first quarter of 2027, which is odd because we usually we think of recessions as
[105:56] deflationary. But if oil prices skyrocket because the war keeps going on, you can see
[106:01] markets are going to be panicked. European Central Bank is going to be panicked. ECB
[106:07] warns that a recession is possible and of course recession becomes possible in the United
[106:12] States as well. Goldman Sachs says it's going to take $150 per barrel oil to
[106:17] see a recession in the United States. The Wall Street Journal interviewed 50 economists. They
[106:23] argue it might only take $138 to indicate a recession in the United States. Although
[106:28] recession risk so far only at 32%, so maybe that's not necessarily bad yet. But
[106:34] then again, markets are mostly pricing in a short-term recession here. So like, where's the
[106:39] bullishness in all of this? Because so far, a lot of this is pretty bearish.
[106:44] In fact, if you look at copper prices, copper prices are now negative year to
[106:50] date. Copper prices are often a leading indicator that there could be underlying economic problems
[106:55] that are forming. All of these are issues. So what potentially is bullish? Because even
[107:01] Christine Lagarde came out this morning and says, we have no idea how long this
[107:06] is going to take. The longer it goes on, the worse this gets. We're starting
[107:11] from a good place, but a major shock is unfolding. The longer this goes on,
[107:16] the worse it gets. Again, everybody's saying it's not a secret. And frankly, Iran realizes
[107:22] this. So What are the potential reasons to be bullish? And what are the timeframes
[107:27] to be bullish? Well, in my opinion, there are a few. First, historically, geopolitical issues
[107:32] are usually a buy the dip. In fact, they've almost always been a buy the
[107:38] dip opportunity. If you look through history, whether it was 9-11, Russia, Ukraine, whatever. Geo,
[107:43] desert storm, geopolitical issues are almost always a buy the dip. You buy the dip
[107:48] because there's panic in the short term. And then as things chill out or people
[107:54] get sort of used to or find different ways to rejigger supply chains, the markets
[108:00] go up. Now, that's one take. Now, a second thing is that there's a lot
[108:05] of money that's potentially going to flow into the banking sector soon. We're expecting potentially
[108:10] $200 billion of money to flow into the banking sector through looser capital rules for
[108:15] banks. Now, that could lead banks like JP Morgan to issue significant buybacks because their
[108:21] stocks have fallen quite a chunk recently because of fears of private credit exposure. You
[108:26] could see JP Morgan had this rising wedge, which typically forestalls a fall or decline
[108:31] in stock price, which is exactly what happened here. And JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo,
[108:36] and Bank of America will probably be the biggest beneficiaries of this. But $200 billion
[108:41] could be used not only for buying back their own stock, but they could also
[108:46] use it to lend. And lending is good because it usually generates GDP
[108:52] growth. Usually. That's why seeing a bear steepener where yields are going
[108:58] up, two-year yield is skyrocketing, the 10-year yield is skyrocketing. That hurts
[109:04] private credit because it constricts lending and it constricts financial conditions. Tightening
[109:10] financial conditions are not great for economic growth, investment, GDP growth, whatever.
[109:16] So, Looser capital requirements, bullish stimulus. Geopolitical, usually
[109:22] by the dip. The amphibious Marine group showing up late next week
[109:28] to hopefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz does create risk for more American lives being
[109:33] lost, as we expect Iran will fight hard to maintain control of the Strait. We've
[109:39] already lost 13 Americans. But if we are successful, which I will not underestimate our
[109:44] Marines, which I expect we will be successful at reopening the Hormuz or Strait of
[109:50] Hormuz with our Marines, we If we're able to do that, that is going to
[109:55] be a very bullish catalyst for markets. Now, at the same time, we are going
[110:01] to be prepping for the April 3rd jobs report, which hopefully shows a rebound from
[110:06] the February pain as we get revisions for February, revisions for January, and we get
[110:11] March data. So we're basically going to get three data sets, the revision for Jan,
[110:17] Feb, and then the initial March data. That comes out on April 3rd, which means
[110:23] not necessarily next week, but the week after next week is going to be
[110:28] really desirable or potentially interesting for markets. So that timeframe between March 30th to
[110:34] April 3rd That could be when we see the Strait reopen on a bullish outlook.
[110:39] That could be when the Marines, you know, are able to take control of what
[110:44] they're able to take care of. Hopefully Iran doesn't retaliate against, let's say, that's the
[110:48] economist's fear, is that if we take Karg Island, that, you know, Iran goes scorched
[110:53] earth even more so than they already have. Hopefully the war chills out by then.
[110:58] And hopefully we get a good jobs report. And then geopolitics will prove to be
[111:02] a by the dip. Because... Well, frankly, the war will start relaxing, we'll get positive
[111:08] jobs data, hopefully, and everything can just chill. Some of this panic can chillax.
[111:14] A lot of that, unfortunately, though, is hopium. So while those are reasons to
[111:20] be bullish, they're probably more reasons to be optimistic. Because obviously we have to
[111:25] balance this with the fact that Kuwait's petrol company just suspended operations after their
[111:31] attacks. Qatar's energy CEO, Qatar Energy, CEO of that company called Qatar Energy, they say
[111:37] they're going to lose $20 billion in ARR due to the attacks against Qatar yesterday.
[111:42] And they are going to potentially have to declare force majeure on some of their
[111:48] liquefied petroleum, their condensate oil, which is basically used for gasoline, their mixtures for plastics.
[111:54] helium, which is important in chip manufacturing. They think they're going to lose $20 billion
[111:59] in ARR, and they think it's going to take as long as three to five
[112:04] years to rebuild the damage that Iran conducted just on yesterday's strike. Now, Pete Hegseth
[112:09] is asking Congress for $200 billion to keep this war going. And Tulsi Gabbard mentioned
[112:14] this morning that Trump and Israel have differing goals and that this time is different.
[112:19] Pete Hegseth says that Iran cannot be trusted to end their nuclear program and we
[112:24] will finish this and there's no time frame for ending this conflict. None of that
[112:29] sounds bullish, like this is going to be short term. That all sounds like, well,
[112:34] $200 billion. And of course, we will finish this and Iran can't be trusted. None
[112:38] of that sounds good. We've now struck 7,000 targets in Iran, which is up from
[112:43] the previous estimates by a lot. And these expectations that our amphibious units are just
[112:49] one week away do also create the risk of more retaliation from Iran. Now,
[112:55] Scott Bassett from the Treasury Department potentially argues that we should just lift sanctions
[113:00] on Iran to relieve pressure on oil prices for Iranian oil already at sea.
[113:07] This seems really backwards because if you're trying to punish Iran, why are you going
[113:12] to lift sanctions on Iran to increase the profit on the oil that they could
[113:18] collect just so you could temporarily push down oil prices in the broader market? It
[113:23] seems like you're shooting yourself in the foot. But then again, this administration does things
[113:29] like that, sometimes without logic. At the same time, I just got an update
[113:34] that Iran has indeed now claimed responsibility for targeting the Haifa oil refineries, which is
[113:40] also bearish because literally two hours ago, Israel's like, all right, we won't attack infrastructure
[113:45] again. And then Iran's like, all right, we restrained ourselves. And then two hours later,
[113:51] we bombed your refining plant, Israel. What do you think Israel's going to do now?
[113:56] Now Israel's probably going to go, hey, America, they just bombed ours. Now we
[114:02] got to bomb theirs. And the tit for tat keeps going. It's not the
[114:08] kind of tit we usually like talking about on the channel. Unfortunately, Donald Trump
[114:14] has argued that if Iran ends up striking more oil and natural gas infrastructure,
[114:19] which they literally just did, Donald Trump says he will completely eradicate Karg Island.
[114:26] That would devastate global supply chains because a lot of oil comes from here. This
[114:31] would be devastating for oil. We will probably see $150 per barrel oil if this
[114:37] is done. And it is exactly what Donald Trump's threatened. Donald Trump in a truth
[114:42] social post last night said, the Israelis, they did something without my knowledge, even though
[114:48] they said they coordinated with the United States. And they're going to stop. And
[114:54] as long as Iran doesn't hit any of our infrastructure again,
[114:59] we won't go to the level of destroying Karg Island. Well,
[115:05] they literally just did. Iranian missile targeted Haifa oil refineries. Iran's
[115:11] news agency said. It's now factored in. Not great. So... What's
[115:16] the escalation and response going to be? And what does this mean for timeframe? Well,
[115:22] in my opinion, I think the best timeframe is patience over the next week. Let's
[115:28] get to the arrival of the amphibious units, maybe even wait to getting to that
[115:34] jobs data. Pricing might be a little bit more expensive by the time we get
[115:39] to April 3rd. because maybe things start rebounding, right? But I think a safer
[115:45] way to hedge on buying the dip is just wait for April 3rd. April 3rd
[115:50] at 530 in the morning. By then, we're going to know, did our amphibious groups
[115:55] take control of anything? Did Donald Trump eradicate Park Island? Probably not. Have there been
[116:00] more strikes on oil and natural gas infrastructure? Is our jobs economy truly falling off
[116:05] a cliff or was February just a one-off? And as long as we get a
[116:09] positive jobs report there and things chill out with these strikes on infrastructure, which... As
[116:14] it's happening right now, it doesn't seem like they are. That's probably the better time
[116:19] to decide, okay, time to be bullish. Because right now, a lot of the news,
[116:24] even though we're trying to say there are some reasons to be bullish, a lot
[116:29] of the news that's actually unfolding is just factually bearish. But that is what happens
[116:34] during geopolitical crises. So with all of that said, I wish you the best of
[116:39] luck on what the hell is going on, because this sucks. Cool. All
[116:45] right. So, uh, let's see what else we have here.
[116:50] Uh, all right. So, U.S. State Department approved supply sale
[116:56] of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles to UAE. Uh, good for
[117:01] defense contractors. I guess they'll get more contracts, huh? Let's
[117:07] see. Uh, let's see. Israel does report damage to the
[117:12] Haifa refineries. Unclear how long... or how much damage iranian
[117:18] no casualties though uh f-35 damaged by some suspected iranian
[117:24] fire makes emergency landing oh f-35 makes emergency landing f-35
[117:30] those things are freaking awesome uh okay so what else
[117:35] have we got here let's uh former minneapolis fed president
[117:41] on path forward for rate cuts let's listen to that
[117:46] for a moment let's let's see
[117:52] Yeah, I mean, 11 to 1, even Waller didn't dissent.
[117:58] Myron, of course, is going to be Myron. But a
[118:04] lot of chatter yesterday, Gary, that Powell is not going
[118:10] out as a lame duck necessarily. Well, I think that's
[118:15] true. The Fed is an institution kind of like a family in some ways. And
[118:21] if you try to back them into a corner and put a lot of pressure
[118:27] on the leader, you can think about the way a typical family would react.
[118:33] But I don't think that's the dominant concern here or the dominant feature. I think
[118:39] what's really going on, and I think we need to all bear this in mind,
[118:44] the Fed is trying to do what's best for economic performance in this country so
[118:50] that U.S. residents benefit from economic performance. It's not always easy to make a decision
[118:56] about what that ought to be. But in terms of where they're trying to go,
[119:01] the beneficiary should be residents of the United States and the Fed as I know
[119:07] it, that's always been the case. Gary, we always look to you for insight and
[119:13] understanding behind the meeting and the decisions. Thanks for joining us. Come by set sometime
[119:19] soon. Very stern. Thank you. Let's go over here.
[119:28] to chat GPT and GPT-3 that caused this AI boom. And so, you
[119:34] know, to some degree, it's justified that, you know, VCs like us and
[119:40] others are going to back teams that are going to take a crack
[119:45] at building the next open AI and Anthropic. And if there's a company that has
[119:51] that potential with a research team that has the caliber to produce a novel model
[119:55] architecture, it's the kind of bets that we should be making as an industry. Really?
[120:00] Now, are the valuations too high? It's all going to be commoditized. I can't argue
[120:04] that, but we have to work backwards in some ways. these teams need to hire
[120:09] very expensive researchers. They need to have gigawatts of compute to train models, and that's
[120:14] very, very expensive. And as you think about the cap table, we have to make
[120:19] sure that the founders and the team are incentivized. And to some degree, if they're
[120:25] going to raise hundreds of millions or a billion dollars out of the gates it
[120:30] means working backwards if we're going to buy 20 as vcs then the math kind
[120:36] of takes care of itself in terms of the valuation so that's where we are
[120:41] today somewhat justified a little overvalued even can silicon valley venture can american venture can
[120:47] develop world and venture support the sort of numbers that are involved if middle eastern
[120:52] money becomes harder to access at this moment yes look Today there's a lot of
[120:58] debate about whether the model companies should be profitable and self-sustaining. I don't believe that's
[121:03] the right approach. We're just at the very beginning and there's a lot of R&D
[121:08] left to do. There's a lot of business model transformation that's happening today, obviously with
[121:14] the SaaSpocalypse. Fundamental existing business models are being disrupted heavily. And so it's a time
[121:19] where we are, as an industry, still figuring out what to do in terms
[121:25] of how to fund all these investments. Today, at least, globally, the
[121:30] foundational model companies have been able to raise capital. But at some
[121:36] point, I do believe it becomes somewhat sovereign. This guy's so boring.
[121:41] Alright, looks like oil's popping off again. Alright, you guys are boring.
[121:47] This is why I've been tuning in way less to the lamestream
[121:52] media. All right, what do I got here? So we're now moving back up again.
[121:58] Oil is now on its way back to 113 on Brent after this Haifa strike,
[122:03] which isn't great. I mean, we saw it, what, within minutes of the strike happening.
[122:08] We started talking about it. And it looks like the market has... slowly chilled out
[122:14] a little bit following these strikes, which makes sense because, you know, Donald
[122:20] Trump did just promise big retaliation if there are more strikes on infrastructure.
[122:26] And here you go, very next morning, which is ridiculous. Crap, just keep
[122:32] going on. We don't want that. Anyway, you can see the queues here.
[122:38] This all really since the strikes in Israel here. Not great. Not great
[122:44] at all. quarry's
[122:49] back at 80 bucks yeah just above its line there oracle
[122:55] oracle oracle should have seen this coming oracle all right let's
[123:01] go see what else is going on doom bugger oops i
[123:07] accidentally wrote bloomberg okay trump just yapped we will talk about
[123:13] trade with japan okay uh let's see jeffries to give first
[123:19] look at wall street earnings after market turmoil right because that
[123:25] has to do with um What's it called? Private credit.
[123:31] Everybody's going to be paying attention to that. Okay. We
[123:36] getting more Trump commentary coming? Let's see here. Here's some...
[123:42] Oh, no significant damage. Okay, but it was hit. Damage
[123:47] to electricity grid, not submissive. Okay, hit in the missile
[123:53] barrage. Refinery's down as much as 8% in Tel Aviv
[123:58] trading. F-35 made emergency landing. Repercussions on energy supplies. Israel struck naval infrastructure in
[124:04] the Caspian Sea. Shipping activity remains severely constrained. Commercial traffic effectively frozen. Japan's Takaichi. Global
[124:07] economy is about to experience a huge hit because of Iran. Why is she threatening
[124:09] us? Why has she got to be so aggressive? Write that down. So we have
[124:12] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:14] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:16] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:19] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:21] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:24] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:26] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:29] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:31] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:34] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:36] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:39] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:41] Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, global economy is about to
[124:47] experience a huge hit because of Iran. Only
[124:53] Trump can achieve peace. Only Trump can achieve
[124:58] peace. And we'll see about that. These headlines
[125:04] are literally just coming out seconds ago here.
[125:09] White House will not implement a crude export
[125:15] ban. Okay. Ready to reach out to partners
[125:21] to reach objectives, says Takai Chi. Okay. Okay.
[125:27] let me see what other updates come out in just a moment you know the
[125:33] high high quality office assets multi-family and of course data centers which everybody loves meantime
[125:38] diana if the rate backdrop remains tough and with the you know 10 year at
[125:44] 4-3 it looks like it's incrementally getting tougher do you think the uh pressure on
[125:50] institutional real estate ownership persists out of the administration It does. It does. But when
[125:55] I talked to all these experts on expect someone from Stanger, I asked him that
[125:59] very question. I said, you know, we thought rates would be lower than they were
[126:03] now. And he said it will still happen. It will just happen more slowly and
[126:07] more measured and again, go into those safer real estate assets rather than the more
[126:11] risky ones. But they do still believe that as you know, money comes out of
[126:15] private credit, it's got to go somewhere, right? And the idea is that this is
[126:19] a US AI infrastructure story or does it go beyond our borders? Oh, absolutely. I
[126:24] mean, I don't have numbers on that specifically because we have those U.S. numbers, but
[126:28] the money could go into real estate overseas. A lot of these major real estate
[126:32] companies are, of course, global. So when you look at data centers like digital realty
[126:35] or something like that, that's a publicly traded REIT, but they're all over the world.
[126:39] So people are going to put their money where they think the best real estate
[126:43] assets are. And that may be in the U.S. or it may be overseas. Finally,
[126:47] Diana, on new homes, I know you brought us the number earlier this morning, but
[126:52] can you put into some perspective that month-on-month drop? Is that the worst in a
[126:56] decade? It was the drop put it at the slowest pace since 2022. And Carl,
[127:01] I had to look at that number twice when it first came out because I
[127:05] couldn't believe the drop over 17%. A lot of folks are blaming it on the
[127:09] weather, which we tend to do. And I will not deny it was a pretty
[127:12] rough January in much of the country. But sales were also down very significantly in
[127:16] the West. where you don't see that weather impact. And so it was baffling because
[127:20] it didn't have much to do with mortgage rates. Mortgage rates were actually lower than
[127:24] they are today. They were in the 6 to 6.2% range. So again, it's that
[127:29] uncertainty in the economy. It's those higher prices. And again, we also saw housing starts
[127:33] for single family come down to start the year as well. So we'll see if
[127:37] that bounces back a little bit, but mortgage rates are now higher. So the expectation
[127:41] from everyone I'm talking to really is that it's not going to get much better.
[127:45] Diana, thank you. Quickly, I would just mention, Carl, on the AI industrial conversation, that's
[127:51] one of the areas that has worked so far this year. GE Vernova now up
[127:56] about 30% in 2026. All right. Boring. takaichi let's see here condemns the iran
[128:02] attacks around the region and the closure of the strait we'll discuss economic security in
[128:08] areas like energy and minerals oh there's the talk thank you very much and you're
[128:13] doing a great job again congratulations on the biggest win in the history of japan
[128:19] that's not bad that's a pretty long history that's a a large nation with a
[128:25] law really with a great a great reputation, but it's a tremendous victory.
[128:31] Congratulations to everybody. I'm very proud of you. We've become friends and I'm
[128:37] very proud of the job you've done. It's not easy. Any questions,
[128:42] please? Mr. President, are you fully satisfied with the level
[128:48] of support that you're getting from Japan on Iran, including
[128:54] around the Chinese Uyghurs? SECRETARY KERRY: Well, we're going to
[128:59] be speaking about it today. Go ahead. You can go.
[129:06] We're doing, we're going to be speaking about it today. We've had tremendous support
[129:11] and relationship with Japan on everything. And I believe that based on statements that
[129:17] were given to us yesterday, the day before yesterday, having to do with Japan,
[129:23] they are really stepping up to the plate. Yes.
[129:27] Unlike
[129:34] NATO,
[129:41] Please. Mr. President, do you intend to lift sanctions on Iranian oil? And do you
[129:46] intend to potentially put U.S. troops or more troops in the region? No, I'm not
[129:51] putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you. They're on the way.
[129:56] But I'm not putting troops. And we will do whatever is necessary to keep the
[130:01] price as low. I actually thought when I did this, look, the Dow just hit
[130:06] 50,000 a couple of weeks ago. They said that couldn't happen for four years. It
[130:11] wouldn't happen in my term. It's such an outrageous thing because I said it would
[130:15] happen. I didn't know it was going to happen that fast, but it just hit
[130:19] 50,000. And we did that in one year, not four. S&P had just hit 7,000.
[130:24] They said that was even more impossible than the Dow hitting 50. And we did
[130:30] that in one year. So it's all done. Everything was going great. The economy is
[130:35] great. Oil prices were very low. Gasoline was dropping to, I mean, we had $1.99.
[130:41] Notice how he immediately goes to, oh, the stock market's doing so great. And then
[130:46] I said, Hate to make this excursion, but we're gonna have to do it and
[130:51] I actually thought the numbers would be worse I thought that it would go up
[130:55] more than it did But we're doing this excursion and when it's completed and we're
[130:59] gonna have a much safer world and The Prime Minister agrees with me and then
[131:03] she considers it to be terrible what they're in it I think every country does
[131:07] just about every country does Iran is a serious threat to the world to the
[131:11] Middle East and to the world and And everybody agrees with me. I think virtually
[131:17] every country agrees with me on that. So I wanted to put out that
[131:22] fire. And I said, you know, if I do that, oil prices will go up,
[131:27] the economy will go down a little bit. I thought it would be worse, much
[131:32] worse, actually. I thought there was a chance it could be much worse. It's not
[131:36] bad. And it's going to be over with pretty soon. We've obliterated the Navy. We've
[131:41] obliterated their just about everything there is to obliterate, including leadership. Their Navy's gone. Their
[131:45] Air Force is gone. Their anti-aircraft equipment is gone. We're flying wherever we want, Pete.
[131:50] We have nobody even shooting at us. Meanwhile, an F-35 just got shot and had
[131:55] to have an emergency landing. Their leadership is gone. Their leaders are gone. They picked
[132:01] new leaders, they're gone. They picked new leaders, they're gone. And now they're looking for
[132:06] new leaders again. We can take out the island. Anytime we want. I call it
[132:12] the little oil island that sits there so totally unprotected. We've taken out everything but
[132:18] the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for
[132:24] them to do. But we are, I would say, we are substantially ahead of schedule.
[132:30] And I had to do this. I call it an excursion. I had to take
[132:35] this little excursion and do something that no other president had the courage to do.
[132:39] And everybody wanted to do it, but they never had the courage to do. And
[132:43] I don't blame them. I'm not blaming them. It was left to me, and we've
[132:48] done a great job. Our military is incredible. We have an incredible military. We have
[132:52] the strongest military in the world by far. We have the greatest equipment in the
[132:57] world by far. In fact, Japan buys our equipment, buys a lot of it, and
[133:02] we're honored by that. And that's one of the things we'll be talking. They want
[133:06] to buy a lot of the military equipment. So it's just an honor to have
[133:11] the prime minister. We've had a tremendous relationship. Okay. Mr. President, Mr. President. I think
[133:16] she's going to have to go first before you. Is that okay? Yeah. Do you
[133:20] understand? Very good. I mean, it's so nice that we don't have to sit. No,
[133:26] it's very good. I haven't picked up your language. The next time you come, I'll
[133:32] have your language mastered. All right, go ahead. The war is almost over. Why is
[133:37] the Pentagon going to ask Congress for an additional $200 billion? Well, we're asking for
[133:43] a lot of reasons beyond even what we're talking about in Iran. This is
[133:49] a very volatile world and the military equipment, the power of some of this weaponry
[133:55] is unthinkable. You don't even want to know about it. Oh, you could end this
[134:01] thing in two seconds if you wanted to. But we are being very judicious. But
[134:07] we want to do, don't forget, Biden gave away, I rebuilt the military my first
[134:13] time. Biden gave away so stupidly to Afghanistan a lot. He didn't want to move
[134:18] it. He was too lazy, too stupid to move it. But it was a very
[134:23] small amount. It was a lot, but it was very small relative to what I
[134:27] purchased and what I built. We want to have a good we want to have
[134:32] vast amounts of ammunition, which we have right now. We have a lot of ammunition,
[134:37] but it was taken down by giving so much to Ukraine. They gave so much.
[134:43] You know, Biden gave three hundred and fifty billion dollars worth of cash and military
[134:48] equipment to Ukraine. And he didn't rebuild anything. Fortunately, we have a lot. We have
[134:53] a tremendous unlimited supply of of what you'd call middle and upper middle supplies. armaments
[134:59] and military equipment, munitions, armaments, but munitions in particular. At the high end, we
[135:04] have a lot, but we're preserving it. We don't really need it, but we're
[135:10] building. Our manufacturers of military equipment are building at a level they've never seen
[135:16] before. They've never done before. Pete's in charge of it with with all of
[135:22] us really, but Pete's been very strong on it. The general and Pete, myself, the
[135:27] whole group. And Raytheon is building four factories. Lockheed is building five or six factories.
[135:33] And they're building them fast, because we had a very tough meeting with them. They
[135:38] were going out and buying back stock for $51 billion in one case. They spent
[135:44] $51 billion buying back stock. Now they're not allowed to do that. And they are
[135:49] now building a tremendous... There's never been anything like it, what's taking place right now.
[135:54] So we're in very good shape, but we want to be in the best shape,
[135:59] the best shape we've ever been in. We were that, you know, when I rebuilt
[136:03] the military, we were in great shape, and then Biden blew it. And he didn't
[136:08] do anything. He didn't build... He didn't do anything. And if you listen to the
[136:12] Democrats, they don't even want to have a military. Now you see how important it
[136:17] is. But we have... the strongest military in the world. We have the best equipment.
[136:22] We make by far the best equipment. The other night, they had 114 rockets shot
[136:27] at a certain location. And out of 100 highly sophisticated rockets, out of 114 sophisticated
[136:32] rockets, every single one of them was shot down with our equipment, all our equipment.
[136:37] It's amazing, actually, how good it is. So we want to be sure. And it's
[136:42] a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top. The Press:
[136:47] Mr. President, the Treasury Secretary this morning said there were defections among Iranian leadership. Are
[136:53] you aware of that? And is there anybody in the U.S. to work with as
[136:58] a leader going forward? The President: Well, we have a man named the Treasury Secretary
[137:03] here, so maybe he wants to discuss it. Does anybody know -- do you know
[137:08] who he is? Central casting. Yeah, so we are seeing the defections at all levels
[137:13] as they're starting to sense what's going on with the regime. It doesn't get reported
[137:18] here in the U.S. very well, but we are transferring them from the air, and
[137:23] the regime will probably collapse within itself at Treasury. We've seen where they've wired their
[137:28] money out of the country. We're coming for that. We're going to get it back
[137:33] to the Iranian people. You've seen defections? There's a lot of military defections also. You
[137:38] have a lot of military defections in Iran. I don't blame them. Thank you, Mr.
[137:43] President. You talked to Prime Minister Netanyahu about attacking the oil and gas fields. Yeah,
[137:48] I did. I did. I told him, don't do that. And he won't do that.
[137:53] We didn't discuss. You know, we do... We're independent, we get along great, it's coordinated,
[137:58] but on occasion he'll do something and if I don't like it, so we're not
[138:03] doing that anymore. And the last one, if I could, the Fed chairman told me
[138:08] yesterday that he plans to stay until a new Fed chairman is confirmed and he
[138:13] also plans to stay on the board until the investigation on the federal term is
[138:17] done. Well, he's under investigation because he's building a building for hundreds of billions of
[138:22] dollars more than it's supposed to cost. The building you see over there is under
[138:26] budget and ahead of schedule. That's the ballroom. The ballroom is a much bigger building.
[138:31] It's a much more complex building than what he's doing, and it's at a fraction
[138:36] of the cost. something is going on whether it's contractors that's what i do best
[138:41] in the world i build i build great buildings i've always done it and i
[138:46] build them under budget and ahead of schedule they could have four billion this is
[138:50] a renovation job for four billion dollars and if you look at the building it's
[138:55] not even i don't know if kevin warsh is ever going to be able to
[139:00] move into it it's been under construction for years it's the most expensive building ever
[139:05] built Now, I know it's gross incompetent because I happen to think he's grossly incompetent.
[139:10] Today, certainly you should be lowering interest rates. All right. Certainly, who would not lower
[139:15] them? But he's... Stubborn and he's got Trump derangement syndrome, but a lot of people
[139:21] have that you know, it's not a curable disease but But he's also building he
[139:26] should be lowering rates immediately But he won't do that because he's he's a stubborn
[139:31] incompetent person and that's a bad thing You know when you're stubborn and incompetent, I
[139:37] think it's the worst combination and he's also not a smart person but He's building
[139:42] a complex over there that's under his jurisdiction. He started it and it's
[139:48] out of control. It's billions of dollars for a little building. I could
[139:54] have done that building and made it beautiful for $25 million. $25 million
[139:59] and it would have been beautiful. Look what I've done at the
[140:05] White House, fixing it up. And I mean, the place was in bad
[140:11] shape. You see the floors and everything. It was in bad shape. I
[140:16] could have I could have made that building beautiful for $25 million. They're
[140:22] spending $4 billion. All right. So it's there is criminality. Maybe it's with
[140:27] the contractor. But because I know more about contractors than any human being, maybe that's
[140:33] ever lived. But that contractor is a very rich man. Whoever the contractor is that
[140:38] we know, but whoever the contractor is, is an extremely rich man. He's going to
[140:43] make. I mean, it could make millions of dollars. I don't I'm hearing
[140:49] numbers from three to four billion dollars. That would make it the most expensive building
[140:54] on a square foot basis ever built in history. And you're not even building a
[141:00] building. It's a renovation. The exterior skin is staying. The steel is staying. The structure.
[141:06] So. All I want to do is bring out to the public that
[141:12] this guy is incompetent. He's a very incompetent guy. And he may be a dishonest
[141:18] guy, but somebody's dishonest because there's no way that building can be three to four
[141:24] billion dollars. Thank you. Mr. President, you just mentioned Japan. This looks like one of
[141:30] your people right here. Thank you. Is he good or bad? Is he a
[141:36] good reporter or bad? Nice to know. So-so. All right. Looks like a
[141:41] nice guy. Go ahead. Mr. President, you just mentioned Japan is stepping up.
[141:47] What kind of support do you expect from Japan in the future? Look,
[141:52] I expect Japan to step up because, you know, we have that kind
[141:58] of relationship and we step up with Japan. 45,000 soldiers in Japan. We have
[142:04] we spent a lot of money on Japan. So and we've had that kind of
[142:08] a relationship. So I expect I'm not surprised that they would step up. We don't
[142:13] need much. We don't need anything. I mean, honestly, we don't need anything from Japan
[142:18] or from anyone else. But I think it's appropriate that people step up in the
[142:22] case of Japan. I hear they get more than 90 percent of their oil through
[142:27] the straight line. So that's a big reason to step up. I mean, we've demolished.
[142:33] That country is supposed to demolish. The only thing is the strait. It's very hard.
[142:38] You could take two people and they could drop little bombs in the water and
[142:44] they're holding things up. We don't want that to happen. But honestly, Japan, China, Europe,
[142:50] parts of Europe get a lot of their oil through the strait. We get none,
[142:55] practically. We're less than 1%. We don't have to be any percent. We don't even
[143:01] I think we do it just to be nice. But we think of it. We
[143:06] don't use the Strait. We're defending the Strait for everybody else. And then in the
[143:11] case of NATO, they don't want to help us defend the Strait. And they're the
[143:16] ones that need it. But now they're getting much nicer because they're seeing my attitude.
[143:21] They're getting much nicer. But it's as far as I'm concerned, it's too late. You
[143:26] know, UK wants to send aircraft carriers now. That
[143:32] was through
[143:36] the 8th
[143:41] of March.
[143:46] That's now
[143:50] risen.
[143:52] Wrong.
[143:57] Dated
[144:01] info. If you can't make
[144:07] more of it in the future, then you have a limited supply. And so we're
[144:12] going after all of their defense contractors that make all of their exquisite weapons and
[144:16] ensuring that even if they wanted to rebuild more launchers or more missiles, they couldn't
[144:21] in the future. And that's a level of devastation for their military that they've never
[144:26] seen before. So we have in literally two weeks, we've demolished their Navy, their Air
[144:31] Force. All technology is gone. All communication is gone. And all of the leaders are
[144:37] gone. Other than that, they're doing quite well. Okay, how about one more question
[144:42] for the Prime Minister? Let me pick a beautiful looking person from, a beautiful
[144:48] person from Japan, a question for the Prime Minister. Go ahead. Me? Yeah. Oh,
[144:54] he doesn't believe he's beautiful. He's just, he's out in shock. Of course, no,
[144:59] Japan and the U.S. are a very good friend, but One question, why didn't
[145:05] you tell US allies in Europe and Asia, like Japan, about the war before attacking
[145:11] Iran? So we are very confused about Japanese citizens. Well, one thing you don't want
[145:17] to signal too much. When we go in, we went in very hard and we
[145:23] didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted Surprise? Who knows better about surprise
[145:29] than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor? Okay? Right? He said,
[145:35] Eskimi, do you believe in surprise? I think much more so than us. And
[145:41] we had a surprise, and we did. And because of that surprise, we knocked
[145:46] out, the first two days, we probably knocked out 50% of what we expected.
[145:53] and much more than we anticipated doing so if i go and tell everybody about
[145:58] it there's no longer a surprise right okay one one more one more one more
[146:04] for the prime minister are you gonna for the prime minister yes thank you very
[146:10] much uh japan's tj press uh japan's biggest concern is china now they're giving
[146:16] us uh uh export control and uh you know very harsh uh terms to criticize
[146:22] us so uh that's the president alongside the japanese prime minister in the oval office
[146:27] as you can clearly see uh giving an update uh on the war uh which
[146:33] let's see if doomers have the rest of it although it does sound like it's
[146:39] ending certainly is china uh now they're giving us uh export control and
[146:45] very harsh terms to criticize us. So could you
[146:50] plan, would you really plan to bring out relationship
[146:56] between Japan and China while you're there in Japan?
[147:01] - Yeah, well I'll be going to China very
[147:06] quickly. But I think I'd really like to have the prime minister talk
[147:12] about China because I know they have a little bit of an edgy
[147:18] relationship, and I'd just like to know where it stands, how you're doing
[147:24] with China. So, please.
[147:26] Japan
[147:30] is
[147:34] always
[147:38] open. So first
[147:44] of all, Japan has been consistently open to dialogue with China. And
[147:50] also, second, we have been addressing our relations with China in a
[147:56] calm manner. And also speaking of the U.S.-China relationship, my sincere hope
[148:02] is that the relationship will be something conducive for regional security and
[148:08] also ensuring the global supply chain in the world. Once again, I
[148:14] would like to reiterate that Japan has been consistently open to dialogue with China.
[148:20] And I think we're going to have a great trip. The trip has been
[148:25] postponed for about a month and a half. It's been reset and we look
[148:31] forward to it. And I'll be speaking Japan's praises when I'm in China with
[148:37] President Xi. But we're going to have some good talks today. And I think mostly
[148:42] about trade, because they want to do a lot of trade. They're a tremendous purchaser
[148:48] of our energy, our oil, gas, from, in particular, Alaska. Because Alaska, believe it or
[148:53] not, is very close. It's much closer than any other source. It seems a
[148:59] little cold compared to... but it's just a short trip. So that's something that
[149:05] we will talk about after the first four of these. We'll be discussing trade
[149:11] and a lot of the talk will be about energy. Thank you very much
[149:17] everybody. Alrighty. That ended just at the same time as my tea is ready.
[149:23] Well, I boiled it up again. Another update that came out
[149:29] at the same time is that the European Central Bank suggests
[149:34] that they may need to start discussing rate hikes. They would
[149:40] potentially start discussing rate hikes in April for action as soon
[149:46] as June. That would be the likely time for rate hikes
[149:51] should this war continue. Not great. So, you know... Two days
[149:57] ago I made a video saying prepare for raid hikes and I made it clear
[150:03] that I didn't think that raid hikes were coming yesterday. You can do that. But
[150:09] that they could signal raid hikes are coming because of the war and now both
[150:15] Powell and the ECB have done exactly that. Alright. And it's funny too because I
[150:21] look back at some of the comments and people are like they're not going to
[150:27] mention raid hikes. No way bro. Both of them did. Okay what else?
[150:33] Bank score, yeah we saw that, we saw
[150:38] that. What else? Debate over minimum wage is
[150:44] not settled, millions of Americans, okay we saw
[150:50] that. Alright, let's go look at zero, what's
[150:55] this? This? What do we got here? Tesla
[151:01] faces expanded US probe over self-driving performance in
[151:07] poor weather. Federal regulators are sharpening their focus on Tesla's
[151:12] automated driving assistance system, raising concerns about the technology's ability to handle
[151:18] poor roadway conditions. NHTSA said Thursday it was escalating the probe of
[151:24] the system. NHTSA has identified several crashes, including one fatal where FSD
[151:29] failed to alert drivers appropriately about reduced visibility, such as sun glare,
[151:35] fog, or airborne dust. The probe originally began in 2024. Nitsa
[151:41] said it was escalating the investigation to an engineering analysis, a more
[151:47] involved examination of a potential safety defect that could result in a
[151:53] recall campaign or enforcement. Tesla didn't immediately respond to a request for
[151:59] comment. Duh. The probe represents the latest efforts by Nitsa to examine FSD. It comes
[152:05] one month before Tesla is expected to launch production of a robotaxi cybercab without traditional
[152:10] controls like a steering wheel. The vehicle is designed to be driven by the FSD
[152:15] system, essentially. Tesla said the cybercab would be an autonomous taxi sold to the general
[152:21] public. Nitsa spent years examining this technology, the agency also scrutinizing similar systems from competitors.
[152:28] particularly focused on the company's unique design of fst which relies on the
[152:34] vision-based setup versus the others right in a filing thursday nizza said the
[152:40] incident data the agency reviewed raises concerns about the degradation of detection systems
[152:46] both as originally deployed and later updated fails to detect poor visibility condition
[152:52] conditions and warn the driver didn't Wow.
[152:56] Okay. Do... Do
[153:01] they link the
[153:07] actual NHTSA piece?
[153:12] Let me see.
[153:17] The probe. That's
[153:22] not gonna be
[153:28] it. That's not
[153:33] it. No. Okay.
[153:39] NHTSA. Let's see. NHTSA... FSD
[153:44] Investigation Test Law. Can somebody
[153:50] just link the actual NHTSA
[153:56] piece? Let's see here. Oh,
[154:02] here's somebody, uh... There's a
[154:08] whole screen here. Okay. Open...
[154:13] Create PDF. Okay. Uh, the
[154:19] Office of D-Facts. Yeah, run.
[154:25] Run text recognition. OCR, baby.
[154:31] Alright, did we do it? Yeah, we did. Okay. Office
[154:37] of Defects is opening an engineering analysis to evaluate FSD.
[154:43] Degradation. Okay. ODI will evaluate the performance of FSD in
[154:49] degraded roadway conditions and the updates or modifications by Tesla
[154:55] and assess their impact. Okay.
[155:01] Let's see here. "TESLA also described internal data labeling limitations that prevented
[155:07] uniform identification and analysis of crash events with the subject system engaged.
[155:13] ODI believes this limitation could have led to underreporting of subject crashes."
[155:19] So in other words, there could be more crashes. "TESLA also described
[155:25] an internal data and labeling limit that prevented uniform identification ODI
[155:31] discusses individual incidents. As part of those discussions, Tesla's
[155:36] post-incident analysis indicated that the update to the degradation
[155:42] detection system had been installed in vehicles at the
[155:47] time and may have affected three of the nine
[155:53] incidents. Okay. Available incident data. Let's see here. Okay,
[155:58] that's nothing. Yeah, okay, now Iran is indeed claiming that they
[156:04] attacked and damaged a US F-35. That's the one that we heard reports
[156:10] of being shot at. Oh, the F-35, that's the first time Iran has
[156:15] hit one of our F-35s. Available incident data raises concerns that Tesla's degradation
[156:21] detection system fails to detect or warn under degraded visibility conditions, such as
[156:27] glare or airborne obscurance. That's like the dust or whatever.
[156:36] Lost track or never detected a lead vehicle. Okay,
[156:42] so kind of step it like the worst case
[156:47] scenario here, in my opinion, I mean, likely outcome,
[156:53] likely outcome would be some recommendations for improvement. So
[156:59] I really don't think this is a big, you
[157:05] know, big issue. Probably not a big deal. Worst
[157:11] case would be some form of recall. You
[157:17] know, because a lot of people paid for FSD, obviously.
[157:23] Okay, what do we got over here? Zero Hedge, F-35
[157:29] damaged by Iranian fire, Israeli refinery targeted. We already went
[157:34] through so many things. Mm-hmm. Baba shares crashed the most
[157:40] in six months. Oh, wait, what's Baba doing? Ali Baba.
[157:46] Oh, wow. Baba's almost going full circle back down to
[157:52] 118 level. I remember the breakout of that. That was
[157:58] crazy. And then what's happening
[158:04] with Micron? Let's see here how their performance is the rest of the day. Ah,
[158:10] down 5%. I mean, there was a tippy top over here. 5% is like nothing.
[158:15] Gold's crowded trade set to unwind. Well, that alert is two months late. Trump eyes
[158:21] boots on the ground along her moves. Where did they get this? Is it this
[158:27] from the Wall Street Journal that we read? Several reports this weekend to Thursday say
[158:33] the Trump administration is quietly weighing a major escalation. Right. This is,
[158:39] interestingly, the Reuters report doesn't include the phrase that Trump
[158:45] campaigned against, boots on the ground. Instead, the report simply
[158:51] uses US ways military reinforcements, right? The buildup would give
[158:56] Trump additional options. Wow. That's an interesting view of the
[159:02] Strait.
[159:09] The US is running up against the obvious limits of purely air
[159:14] and naval campaign discussions about deploying troops directly on the coastline. Even
[159:20] more aggressive is potentially taking Kharg, handles 90% of Iran's oil exports.
[159:26] And then, of course, taking the enriched uranium, which some call a
[159:32] suicide mission.
[159:38] That's not good.
[159:44] Right, you launch
[159:50] an RPG and
[159:56] then dip out.
[160:02] Yeah, the $200
[160:07] billion doesn't help.
[160:16] Somebody, uh, J. Cole in the chat says, man, everyone has lost their marbles.
[160:22] Next recession is going to flush people so hard. That's why you don't want
[160:28] a recession to happen. I don't think a lot of people are going to
[160:34] be shocked with, uh, you know, if there's a recession, how bad it could
[160:39] really get. Uh, let's see here. Two decades in Iraq. Russia spent four years
[160:45] on its military operation in Ukraine. And Iran dwarfs the size, uh, dwarfs Ukraine
[160:51] in size. I wonder how much bigger... How much
[160:57] larger is Iran than Ukraine? Wow.
[161:02] Ukraine is about one third the
[161:08] size. Okay. Yeah. Not great. Not
[161:13] great. Oh, no. Okay. What else
[161:19] have we here? No higher, no
[161:24] fire. Fuel shocks are an even
[161:30] bigger threat to risk assets than
[161:36] crude. It's all an issue. "US
[161:41] naval escort won't 100% guarantee tanker safety." Who says this?
[161:47] Let's go take a look at this. So, told the
[161:53] Financial Times in an interview... Okay, let's go look at
[161:59] that. "Naval escorts would not guarantee safety." This was from
[162:05] three days ago. "The head of the International Maritime Organization
[162:11] has said that naval escort will not guarantee 100% safety."
[162:17] "The safety of the ships attempting to transit the critical
[162:23] waterway." Reduces the
[162:29] risk, but the risk is still there. Okay here.
[162:34] The depth of the water for shipping lanes in
[162:40] each direction is just two nautical miles. The strait
[162:45] is bounded by the mountains, which favors the aggressor,
[162:51] who could strike ships from up high with little
[162:56] notice. Ah, that's true. You're basically shooting fish in
[163:02] a barrel, right? That's very interesting. I wonder if
[163:07] we get like a 3D view of it from
[163:13] Google Maps. Let's try that. Iran... And let's
[163:19] go 3D. It doesn't really give us a great 3D. Well,
[163:25] this gives us a little bit of a look of some
[163:31] of these lower areas. These are all pretty mountainous over here.
[163:36] That island's pretty rocky. What do we get on the other
[163:42] side? Here is Lark, and then this is Harmoose Island. On
[163:48] this edge, it's less rocky, but you have... Yeah, this is
[163:54] pretty flat over here too. How about this cliff over here?
[164:00] Is this a cliff? Less so. See, this
[164:06] is pretty flat over here on this right side. So
[164:11] really the... And this is not Iran over here. What
[164:17] is this part? This is Oman. Oh, that just sort
[164:23] of connects past the UAE here. For some reason, Oman
[164:29] is split by the UAE. That's interesting. I know Oman's
[164:35] here, but that this little edge here... Okay, okay.
[164:40] I mean, I guess this is pretty mountainous. So you don't necessarily have to
[164:46] be right on the beach, right? You could probably launch a rocket from any
[164:52] of these mountains. What a mess. And look at all these little roadways. They
[164:58] could all go into these little caves, you know? All these little dirt roads.
[165:04] You go into little cave hideouts where you just hide a bunch of weapons.
[165:10] Way too corgu. Okay. Any photos on the ground? See, that's what we need.
[165:16] We need to be able to see little photos on the ground. Oh, they
[165:22] actually mapped this road over here. Wow.
[165:27] Looks pretty barren. It's like the barrens in World of
[165:33] Warcraft. Alright. How are we doing? Uh, let's see here.
[165:39] We are... Where are the Qs? The Qs, the Qs,
[165:45] the Qs. Ah! Still struggling. CNBCs. We've got our oil
[165:51] sitting at 110. That's lower than the 113 we had
[165:57] this morning. Still at 4.26 here, which is also good.
[166:03] Trump signals DOJ should continue Powell probe. Well...
[166:12] Let's take a look at these. Actually, I don't know if
[166:17] I'm signing for that. Let me try to sign it. What
[166:23] is this one? Trump! He's under investigation for, because of the
[166:28] building. Let's see. Not made a decision on Powell yet. Oh,
[166:34] that's what, that was Powell's. Yeah, but where does it say,
[166:40] where did Trump say that he wants to continue it? Should
[166:45] continue the Powell probe. Eh, that's not useful. Alright, well, take
[166:51] a little break. Thanks for being here. Hope you enjoyed the
[166:56] stream. See you in the next one. Goodbye. Good luck.