---
title: 'Stock Market Open'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=92xFPA1ONUY'
video_id: '92xFPA1ONUY'
date: 2026-06-29
duration_sec: 10020
---

# Stock Market Open

> Source: [Stock Market Open](https://youtube.com/watch?v=92xFPA1ONUY)

## Summary

This live stream analyzes the stock market open amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, focusing on oil price spikes, bond market movements, and potential bullish catalysts like US Marine operations and upcoming jobs data. The host discusses key indicators, ECB commentary, and provides a timeframe for buying the dip.

### Key Points

- **Brent Crude and 10-Year Yield** [00:42] — Brent crude at $113 per barrel, 10-year yield at 4.287, indicating market stress.
- **Bear Flattening** [01:05] — 2-year treasury up 11 basis points, 10-2 spread at 0.43, typically bearish for stocks.
- **Israeli Coordination with US** [03:45] — Three Israeli officials confirm the South Pars gas field attack was coordinated with the US but will likely not be repeated.
- **Kuwait Petrol Corp Suspends Operations** [06:35] — Kuwait suspends operations at Mina Abdullah and Mina Al Ahmadi refineries after attacks.
- **Qatar Energy Losses** [07:01] — Qatar Energy CEO reports $20 billion ARR loss due to attacks; exports of condensate, LPG, helium, and naphtha expected to drop significantly.
- **US Military Escalation** [21:01] — US has sunk 120 Iranian ships and struck 7,000 targets; A-10s and Apache helicopters attacking southern flank to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
- **Marines Could Seize Hormuz Island** [27:22] — Wall Street Journal suggests 2,200 Marines could seize Hormuz Island to counter Iranian attacks on shipping.
- **Recession Risk at 32%** [39:59] — Wall Street Journal survey of 50 economists: recession risk at 32% if oil stays at $138 for weeks.
- **Fed $200 Billion Bank Stimulus** [51:11] — Federal Reserve expected to loosen capital rules, giving big banks $200 billion for buybacks or lending.
- **Iran Views Conflict as Existential** [61:31] — Iranian officials see the war as an existential threat; IRGC 150,000 strong, ideologically motivated to prevent regime change.
- **Haifa Oil Refinery Struck** [97:13] — Iran claims responsibility for striking Haifa refinery, which supplies 60% of Israel's diesel and 50% of gasoline.
- **Trading Strategy: Wait for April 3** [115:22] — Host recommends patience until the April 3 jobs report, which will provide clarity on economic rebound and war impact.

## Transcript

All right, all right, all right, all right. Let's see what is going
on in the world of the stonk market today, folks. Welcome back, everyone,
to another stonk market live stream. Today, we are bouncing off of some
of the aggressive lows that we had this morning. mostly because of
enthusiasm that some of the worst is baked in. That's the hope,
but we don't know if that's going to continue, especially since we've
got, unfortunately, bad things news on yields and on Brent, which we've got
to watch very closely. Brent right now still at roughly $113, which is
not fantastic. $113 per barrel of crude. In addition to that, if we
look at the bond market, we could see The 10-year has chillaxed a
little bit off of 4.3, but it's still miserable at 4.287. The two-year
treasury, folks, has up 11 basis points, leading to a massive bear flattening
down at 0.43 on the 10-2 spread right now. This is typically bearish
for the stock market, though there is hope that some of the worst
may be built in now. Now, obviously, that remains to be seen. We've got a
market that's tried to start rallying. It can't keep it up. We had a little
bit of an Intuit rally begin. We saw this two days ago where it rallied
and then it fizzled after about 20, 30 minutes. And it looks like that same
thing's happening right now. But what's interesting and what we really want to start
watching is some of this commentary from both the ECB, the European Central Bank,
and Israel. So let's write down some of this. And see what
the latest is regarding Iran. So first things first, yesterday we
heard Trump say that Trump had no knowledge of this South
Pars attack. Trump argued last night, no knowledge of South Pars
attack. Then he said Israel will not do that again without
working with the United States.
And if Iran strikes more infrastructure, we'll
attack their infrastructure. Okay, that was Donald
Trump's truth yesterday. Okay, so we'll say
that was Trump's truth yesterday. Problem is
this morning, Semref in Saudi Arabia, an
oil refinery, along the Red Sea, which is
the other side of this conflict, was attacked by Iran. And
listen to this, Israel, who was it from Israel? Let me
see here. Let's see here. Israel, Israel, Israel, Israel. Sorry, so
many updates have come in. I have lost where that Israel
comment was. It's okay. I remember what it was, but I'd
like to find it. oh those are a lot
of ecb alerts we're going to go through the oh there we
go okay okay three israeli officials three israeli officials for reuters uh
israeli attack on south pars gas field was coordinated with the us
but will likely not be repeated okay so that is you know
That kind of counters Trump, kind of counters Trump,
but also somewhat optimistic that we can hopefully not
see that strike again, right? Because the retaliation that
came was not ideal. Now, Iran literally just seconds
ago. Iran, moments ago, this came
through at 649 Pacific. Our response to Israel's
attack on infrastructure employed fraction of our power.
Right. I mean, they always say this. That's
what like a chihuahua says too. This is
a fraction of my bite. The only reason
for... for restraint was respect
for request de-escalation. Requested de-escalation. Uh-huh. And
zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck
again. Any end to this war must
address damage to our civilian sites. So
like compensation and so on and so
forth, right? Okay. I mean... None of that
sounds escalatory. So this is decent. You know, decent optimism
here. Let me see what the ECB had this morning.
So ECB is going to be Fed-style commentary. So let's
throw down. So ECB just about 20 minutes ago. Let's
see. They had... Oh, yeah. And then we just also
had what's going on in Kuwait. Kuwait... Petrol Corp
in Kuwait suspends operations after attacks. So
that's not great. And these are going
to be at Mina Abdullah and Mina
Al Ahmadi refineries. Got it? Okay. Then
let's see ECB commentary here. Oh, and
then Qatar did also talk here.
Okay, so Qatar, Qatar
energy CEO need hostilities
to cease. Let's see,
lost about 20 billion
in ARR due to
attacks. Exports will be
down. this is
just some of the impact here
exports of condensate expected to be
down 20 sorry 24 uh lpg
down 13 helium oh there's that
ai chip problem down 14 and
naptha and sulfur down six percent
okay
Let's see here. So that's not good, obviously.
Let's now go look at ECB. ECB tells
us data dependent. Old news. They always say
this. Let's see. I've got ECB. Interest rates
will be based on assessment of inflation. Energy
prices will be higher. Energy prices will be
higher. Medium term implications will
depend on the intensity and duration. Medium term impact will
depend on intensity and duration. Yes. uh ECB growth
forecast of 0.9 percent in 2026 1.3
percent in 2027 and 1.4 percent in
2028 which suggests they think the trough
is this year trough suggested at this
year okay more uncertainty and 2.6 inflation
2026 2.0, 2027, 2.1% in 2028. I don't know where
they come up with that number, but whatever. ECB says it's
not committed to any particular rate path. Data dependent. Scenarios will
be published. Okay, we did that. We did that. Closely monitoring
situation. Three interest rates unchanged. All three rates unchanged. They have
like refinancing rates and all this kind of other weird stuff.
Okay. All right. So, eh, not so
much out of the ECB there.
Pegseth had some comments this morning.
Let me also see. I want
to get a note on this.
So, let's see here. There we
go. Okay, so oil condensate is
a byproduct. So I wanted to
see what some of these things
are. Condensate oil is a byproduct
of natural gas extraction. Okay.
Primarily used for gasoline, plastics, and
diluting heavy crude. Got it. Okay.
And then... LPG is just liquefied
petroleum. Liqui... Lick... Ooh, I can't
even spell liquefied. Liquified petroleum. Alright,
that makes sense. And then we
saw... The other thing was... Nap...
That is... Naphtha, whatever, mixture for
plastics. Okay. And then, yeah. Okay. And
then, and then sulfur and helium. Okay.
Helium for chips. Helium in part for
chips. Okay. So Hegseth, let's show this
back up over here. Hegseth says Iran
has, oops, Iran has the ability to
make the right choices for it should
not target allies iran knows when you hit
karg island what they spell that weird iran
knows when you hit what are they saying
iran knows when you hit car island we
can hold anything at issue pentagon going to
congress for money posture and future middle east
will be based on our national security iran
still retains some missile capabilities we're taking counter
measures up to trump to decide when
we've achieved what we've needed
to. Okay. Alright. You know.
Alright. Fine. Karg. Karg Island.
Comment. Then up to Trump
to decide when we've achieved
our goals. And then Tulsi
mentions Trump and Israel have
differing goals. Alright. Then let's
see here. What
else? We had the Semref refinery in the Red
Sea was hit. Toronto retaliated with a missile strike.
We saw that. We have bear flattening points to
a tightening of financial conditions, which we'll throw that
under the Fed section. Bear flattening today. Tightening of
financial conditions as rates rise. Also, mind you, not
great for private credit. Right, because you're gonna see
more pain in private credit under higher rates. We've got economic data.
This is just building permits. Roughly, that's all now. New home sales
miss at 587 versus 722. I never really care about the real
estate number. Wholesale inventories, month over month, negative 0.5% versus the survey
of 0.2. Wholesale trade matches expectations. Okay, that's boring. nothing
really exciting there okay tightening of financial conditions as
rates rise bad for private credit but historically uh
bear uh flattening is bearish stocks that's historical but
i actually think today is uh potentially going to
see more of an update recovery i think some
of the worst has already been priced in this
morning copper copper might be worth looking at let's
look at copper copper prices
okay spot price for copper i
need a chart copper spot price
chart okay do we got where's
my chart you're gonna load what
good does this do me there
we go okay so copper is
interesting because it's an industrial metal
that is typically seen as a
barometer of the economy and uh
we literally did the bear bull scale in the course live maybe you missed it
chris yeah yes jp even yeah j paul even responds right away and says that
all right so um yeah december 30th i mean we've given up any gains that
copper is seeing this year and we're now back at december of 25 levels and
a lot of this is because of the war so i
do think that's interesting this decline
in this as an industrial metal
let me uh grab a shot
of that so the start of
the year was here and there
we go okay so copper so
copper given up its gains for
the year since the war started
um Sometimes copper falling rapidly
can be seen as recessionary. Sometimes. You know,
probably way too soon to tell anything here.
Okay, good. Let's now go see how... Yields
are doing okay. Good. Look at this. Literally in the alpha report this morning, I
said, watch for the 10 year yield to go back down to 4.26 from 4.3.
It's literally at 4.27. Well, now I just went right back to 4.27. But as
I started saying that it was at 4.26. I'm like, okay, that's bullish. That's good.
That's good for a recovery today. That's great. That's a great
early indicator. So I like to see that. And then Brent
is almost two full dollars off of 132. So or sorry,
off of 113. So that's not bad either. Not bad. Okay.
let's go see what what else is news today but yeah i think we
had a pretty good alpha report today and i think today the alpha report's
gonna play out really well that's still very uh i mean so far it's
playing out exactly as planned we'll see how it ends up all right here's
some more color on that hexeth yapping Hegseth said
the war in Iran is different from the
previous operation and that Tehran couldn't be trusted
to abandon its nuclear program on its own.
See, that doesn't sound good, right? That's not
ideal. So Hegseth, this time is different. Iran
can't be trusted to end their nuclear program.
We will finish this. Yeah, none
of that sounds good. Our objectives
given by the America first president
remain what they were on day
one. No time has been set.
No time set to end conflict.
That's not ideal. Whoa. US has
sunk 120 Iranian ships now. Wow,
we're actually at 7,000 targets now.
Now at 7,000 targets, last update.
A-10 attack planes and Apache helicopters are striking
Iranian targets on the southern flank. Oh, that
might be along the strait. Oh, that's interesting.
The southern flank. I'm pretty sure that's along
the strait. Let's go find out. Uh-huh. Ah,
look at this. The southern flank is basically
the Persian Gulf, right? Aren't A-10s warthogs? A-10...
Yeah, I think that's what they call it.
A-10 warthogs. It's still in active service
with the Air Force, but it's being
phased out. Anyway. Okay. So... Get a
screenie here of Iran. And... Well, apparently
my screenshot is too large. That always
drives me nuts. Just resize the image,
Kevin. Then you can do it. I
know, I know. It takes time. Time
is a valuable asset. Okay. Apache helicopters
and... A-10s attacking southern
flank. To me, this is a
sign that they're starting operations to
start securing the strait. This is
to secure the strait, which will
be finalized by an amphibious occupation
of that coast along
the southern flank. That's my take. I think they are
cleaning house on that southern side, especially the straight, which
is right here. And then they'll just park troops along
it to secure it, which markets would probably reward that.
Of course, then there's a risk that Iranians attack American
troops there. risk obviously that American troops then come
under fire from land. Okay, let's see here. Okay,
countries are urging. That's fine. Iran, but Iran's not
going to listen to that crap. Countries can urge
all they want. U.S. is considering removing sanctions from
Iranian oil at sea. What? So the U.S. may
remove sanctions sanctions on Iranian oil already at
sea to relieve pressure from rising prices. What? This just seems
so backwards. So you're trying to punish Iran, but then you're
going to remove sanctions on their oil, allowing them to sell
their oil for a higher price? And that seems backwards. It
seems backwards. Oil already at sea may see sanctions lifted against
Iran to relieve pressure from rising prices.
ryan's have been uh that would have all gone to china however
it's unclear how sanctions would operate temporarily allow the purchase of russian
oil yeah that's weird all right whatever whatever besant okay so oil
we saw that yesterday uh oil ran all the way up to
about 118 119. we saw that which we're we're we're nicely off
of that right now which is bullish This morning's alpha report was
all about watch oil come off 113, which it did, we're almost $2 off. And
watch the 10 year come, look at that, go down to 4.26, it's right at
4.26 right now. That's exactly what we called. We said if that happened, the queues
would recover and they have been. So if you've been watching those two indicators, the
queues have done exactly as expected today. That the worst was already
priced in in pre-market. You know, sans the first
five minutes. Okay. Let's go jump into the journal.
Somebody says you'd need hundreds of thousands of troops.
Oh, yeah. No, that's not how many Trump's sending.
I think Trump's sending, like, 2,500 Marines and 2,500
sailors for a combined, like, 5K. Okay. Christine's talking.
Lagarde. Cannot
give timeline. We're starting from a good place, but
a major shock is unfolding. That's the Iran war.
Okay. Here we go. What U.S. Marines can do
to help reopen the Strait. That's exactly what I
want to see. I think it's that southern flank.
Okay. U.S. Marines per Wall Street Journal. Let's see
what we got over here on the Marines. The
Marines, baby! Uh, let's see here. 2200 marines.
Could seize islands off the southern coast as leverage or
as a base to counter commercial shipping. Oh, interesting. An
island. Oh, like, like maybe these. Oh, there are actually
a lot of these little islands. Uh, see that? Look
at that. All these over here. See, look at that.
Hormuz Island. Oh, that's very interesting. Oh, look at that.
How interesting. Hold on a sec.
There we go. Okay. So here
you have Hormuz Island. There's a
Hormuz Portuguese castle. Wow. That's one
hell of a castle, huh? Not.
There's the salt goddess. What the
hell is that? Wow. Okay. Saffron
Valley. Oh, that's cool. That's very
cool. Valley of statues. Rainbow Valley.
Huh. All right. Let's take it.
huh that's very interesting let's
take a screenshot of that
or moves island right under
bandara boss uh wall street
journal journal okay wall street
journal thinks uh 2200 marines
might take or uh take
an island off the coast
of iran and Somebody donates $5
to say don't underestimate the Marines. I've seen way less Marines
do more nice. I'll also journal figs give that a give
that a little heart. It's hard that there we go heart
Okay, so this is actually very interesting because Looking at the
map. There's literally an a Hormuz Island in the Strait of
Hormuz That the
Wall Street Journal thinks can be
used to launch counter attacks against
Iranians fighting or shooting at ships.
That's fascinating. Amphibious assault ships. Okay.
In just over a week, because
they're, they're in route from Japan.
Amphibious assault units are in route
from Japan. ETA, Just over a week.
Roughly next Friday slash next weekend, we'll say. That's
huge. Welcome, Kevin. Thanks for joining. Isn't this a
Battlefield Conquest? No kidding. I actually never played Battlefield,
but it could be. I don't even touch DJT
stock. I don't go anywhere near that. No, no,
no, no. No, I don't think the ticker should
be DJT either. I think it should be SCA. Okay, I won't
finish saying it. The Marine Expedition Unit is a self-sustained operation, mobile
base, four elements, ground combat, armored vehicle aviation unit of Ospreys, helicopters,
jet fighters. Ospreys are badass. I had an Osprey fly like probably
about 1,100 feet above my home. May have been a subscriber. Ha
ha ha ha. But it was so badass because like
when you're on the ground and one of those is 1100
feet above you, you're just like shaking. So imagine one of
those one of those puppies like attacking you, dude. Oh, my
gosh. Those things are so cool. Anyway. specializes in
conducting raids by sea and by air iran has closest rate
of her moves blah blah blah blah blah forces of reopening
and straight launch sites production capability warehouses missiles drone sea mines
okay uh tuesday u.s military dropped a 5 000 pound deep
penetrator munitions on hardened iranian sites along the coastlines okay that's
interesting tuesday dropped 5k bombs, pound
bombs, on Iranian targets along the
coast. My brother is on an
MEU and is freaking pumped. Nice!
That's awesome. Okay. So, the island,
I think I should also mention,
the island also has a salt
goddess and saffron valley. It's kind
of cool, actually. I want to
see the salt goddess. I want to get out of
my Osprey to visit the salt goddess. Yeah, yeah, oh,
that's funny. Possible landing site. See, look at that. They
actually even mentioned it, too. Hormuz Island. Which I guess
is spelled in America with a U. Even though they
seem to spell it with an O. Okay, got it.
Yeah. Okay. Oops. Let's do... That and then
where to go back over here
Wall Street Journal map map Slap
that in over here Okay Okay,
Iran controls a number of small
islands off the coast they conceal
boats in caves Oh, that's interesting
instead of destroying cars oil infrastructure
Marines could seize the island interesting
could also seize karg island and
use the oil tanks as leverage
interesting yeah and then that way
it doesn't damage it or destroy
it uh prevents uh damaging the
oil infrastructure yeah that's that's interesting
okay uh let's see here iranian
okay there's another one kashim kashim
island which is home to a
large desalination plant, or Qeshm Island, home
to a large desal plant. Okay. Marines
could potentially seize Qish Island, tiny economic
hub, or the rocky Hormuz Island, where
Tehran docks small attack ships. Aha. Okay.
Iran docks small attack ships here. This is a very interesting piece. "Positioning
Marines off the Iran's coast rather than inside Iran itself could be a
loophole that allowed Trump to claim he has kept his promise of not
putting boots on the ground in Iran." Yeah, right. Let's see what the
commentary is on this. "The Pokemon live on Ketchum Island?" "We detected connectivity
issues, therefore were unable to load the comment section."
What's wrong with my connectivity? Damn.
Alright. No reading the Wall Street
Journal comments. Fine then. "Karg was
a Battlefield 3 map"? Was it
really? Let me see. "Karg". "Karg
Battlefield 3 map". "Karg Island". No
freaking way! Uh, oh, that's an
ad. Where's the map? Gallery. Oh
yeah, look at that! Oil tankers.
Or that may have been a
cargo. This is just a bunch
of random pics. Let me see if
I can get a better website here. How interesting. One
of the most underrated maps. Karg Island. Map was so
fun. Wow, yeah, look at that! There are the oil
tanks on fire. Oh, that's hilarious. Yeah, there they are.
More oil tanks right here, here. Those look like propane.
Wow! Very interesting. Sunny says, "What's the next stop for
Tesla?" Oh, let's go see what's going on with Tesla.
TESLA! Marines do not need congressional approval. The president's
own, he can place Marines anywhere without getting congressional
approval. Oh, that's interesting. Alright, so Tesla, uh, let's
see, it's dippy doodlod. Uh, yeah, unfortunately, it's now
under the 100-day moving average as well. Uh, next
stop's 347. Ugh. We need to do a Battlefield
livestream today for, for research purposes? Yeah! Don't
tempt me with a video game. Or worse,
a blonde and a video game. Okay, economists
don't see a recession until oil hits 138
and stays there for weeks. Okay, okay. So,
jobs. Somebody says, are you buying more stocks
this week? Well, you know, I think...
I'm really hopeful this Iran war ends. Geopolitics are almost always
a buy the dip opportunity. Almost always. And I do think
that we'll have a nice rebound in the labor market. But
if you wanted more confidence, you could probably wait 15 days.
And it may be too late to get the best dip in 15
days, but in 15 days you get the next jobs report already. It's
kind of crazy to think that, you know, the March jobs report is
already coming with February revisions on April 3rd. And so if at all
you're worried about that February negative 92,000 jobs report, you can wait until,
you know, February 3rd. But, yeah. You know, is there is there
potentially a rationale to, you know, typically do a little bit? A lot of
that also depends on on where you stand with just capital and and, you
know, how exposed you are to debt or margin. So. you know
15 days from now we could have already taken carg island or
whatever and secured the straight and the market you know skyrockets on
that as oil plummets right so uh who knows but uh let's
write this this recession commentary down recession at 138 for weeks recession
128 138 on oil for weeks all right
Let's write this down. This is Wall
Street Journal. War has caused disruption to
oil. Consensus is temporary oil shock. 50
economists. 50 economists between March 16 to
18. Recession risk at 32% up from
27% in January. That's actually not that
much higher. Average response
was oil would rise to 138.
Okay. Oil elevated for eight plus
weeks. Seems to be a... How
should I put it? Seems to
be what some are targeting. Straight
of Hermos fully reopened by mid-April.
And I will put a recession
in my forecast if not. Okay.
Um... Economists, some economists,
expect Hormuz to be fully
reopened by mid-April. That could
work. That could work if
Marines take control next weekend.
So that would be around
the end of the month,
28th, 29th, March 28, 29.
And April 3, jobs rebound.
Right? So that week's going to be very
interesting. Let's see what else they say. No,
boring, boring, boring. Okay, I mean, that's a
reasonable expectation. Magic 8, I mean, to some
extent it is. It feels optimistic. It all
depends on that straight. Okay. What else? What
else have we? We have resignation, intelligence, US
citizen now run. Okay. Proposed more leaning capital
rules for big banks.
Oh, that's funny. Just two days ago, I was thinking about how, what is it,
Greg Abel has that, he has those big shoes to fill over at Berkshire Hathaway.
And I'm like, man, it would suck to be him because every decision you make,
people are going to doubt you and be like, you're not Buffett. Everything you do
right, people will just call it lucky. Everything you do wrong, people will say, Buffett
would have done better. It's kind of like the worst job, I feel like, to
follow those footsteps. Although the guy is getting compensated quite well, so I'm sure he'll
be fine.
So here's an interesting story. JP Morgan, we're
going to jump to private credit. This is
nutty. Well, I just got to sign in
really quick. I don't know why they always
sign me out. Maybe they don't like me.
Well, I could probably guarantee that. But I
don't like the Doomers much either. So it's
mutual. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer funds
away to short private credit. Banks now
offering ways to short private
credit. They'll do anything for
money. They'll do anything for
money. Oh man. Let's see
here. The firms have assembled
baskets of stocks. Banks are
assembling baskets of stocks to
short, including... European firms with private
credit exposure that have not yet corrected as
much as US private credit. To me, it
just feels almost like inducing the very pain,
right? Short it down. Bank of America is
doing that as well. Bank of America, JP
Morgan, and Goldman are doing it. Wow, it does sound like
2008. It's like that big short movie, right? Sounds like a
big short. Hey man, get in on this contract. Can government
or big hedge fund short brand oil to artificially suppress the
price and pump the market? Can the market learn? Yeah, I
mean, it's actually surprising that oil isn't already a lot higher.
uh, than, than what it is
now, you know, with, with the
extent of this war. So some
of it is, is potentially, you
know, being heavily moved by traitors.
Elizabeth Warren to Warsh, your name
appears in the Epstein files. What?
Kevin Warsh in the Epstein files
was not on my bingo board.
Anyway. Yeah. All right.
Qatar says that will take years
to repair. Wow. Let's see here.
Qatar supplies a fifth of the
world's LNG. Let's write that down
here. Qatar supplies one fifth of
world's LNG. Damage will take three
to five years to repair. How
does it take three to five
years to repair? Is it just
that deep, that damage? Wow. Crazy.
Okay, fine. Oh, bonds, let me
get an update on this. Ah,
10-year moved up again a little
bit, back to 2.7. Brent almost
back to 1.12. Okay, we saw
this. Let's see. Air Baltic Bonds
tumbled. Fuel prices up. Sock Gen.
Ways deal linked to status center.
Okay. Oh, they are. They're only offering that
to hedge funds as a way to short private
credit. Oh, what is this? Oh, OK. All right.
Let's see what's in here. What is this? The
Fed's 200 billion dollar bank stimulus. What is this?
Federal Reserve is about to give America's biggest lenders
an extra 200 billion dollars of capital play with
because of the relaxation of regulations, regulations, right? Yeah.
Loosen capital rules. that will fuel stock buybacks lending and
trading too much haste in deploying all that spare cash in an
overheating economy hmm goldman morgan stanley chase will have to think twice
about handing billions of dollars straight back to investors through buybacks yeah
but when are those rules expected to come in capital rules vice
chair jp morgan has 60 billion of excess common equity tier one
capital new republican proposals could boost that big banks are about to
get a huge capital boost Two
new proposals are expected to be released
after the Fed holds an open board
meeting Thursday. JP Morgan will be the
biggest beneficiary. Buy back stock or they
could lend to financial markets. Right. Okay.
Got it. So that is interesting. Let's
throw that into the Fed section. $200
billion of looser capital rules for banks.
That's actually quite bullish.
should be quite bullish once uh
what's what's it called um the
rules are finalized 200 billion dollars
is massive for either bank buybacks
or lending jp morgan city wells
and bank of america biggest beneficiaries
that's a lot of money to
lend okay got it What's this? SockGen
is mulling a risk transfer of some of its exposure to data
centers. Uh-huh. Free up capital. Some investors are concerned the pace of
technological change could leave the facilities obsolete by the time leases expire.
Yeah, I agree with that. That's why I'm like super bearish long
term on stocks like CoreWeave. I'm just like, oh they're
gonna be bag holders of this older technology like
even what xai is buying or um you know
nbis or whatever all right that doesn't surprise me
okay what else that's all old let's go to
the information see if there's any fun ai news
today Canva was
smart to hold off on IPO a couple years ago.
Canva was one of the hot startups to watch for
IPO candidates, but it sat out last year's IPO class
and now finds itself in an awkward spot. Well, tough
to IPO right now. Data center developer that has barely
raised capital. Giga Energy generated 270 million in revenue in
its lifetime, raised just 3.4 million in equity funding. Oh,
nice. i wonder what their expenses have been though on
on that probably all of it okay uber we saw that
on rivian talked about that this morning in the course live
did some analysis on rivian and then we saw the qualtrics
deal okay so nothing new there let's see the ft see
that's actually you know if you combine this as reasons to
be bullish right uh combined reasons to be bullish okay uh
geopolitics geopolitics are usually
a buy the dip you've
got april three jobs hopefully
show rebound from february pain
okay um and phoebus marine
group shows up uh late
next week hopefully reopens or
moves Israel says
they'll wait on striking
any more infrastructure, right?
Oil and gas. And
Iran says they'll restrain
their counterattacks if U.S.
and Israel stop attacking
oil, gas infrastructure, right?
Those things sound optimistic.
Oh, that's optimistic.
you know because then if iran war
chillaxes and jobs gain economy can easily
bounce through this that's the hope right
that's the that's the the bull take
if you will uh makes makes by
the dipping either ideal well makes by
the dipping ideal uh you know
between now and April 3. April 3
would have the most color in sight,
but maybe not the best price. Okay.
Iranian hospital in Dubai closes as UAE
suffers third week of attacks. Armageddon scenario
for gas markets as Qatar is hit
by missiles. Iran sets its price to
end the war. Ooh, I want to
see. Iran's demand to end war. Okay.
but yeah and if these bullish things happen somebody says what would have to happen
to get btc back above 80. uh i mean if as i just described you
get a good jobs rebound and the war looks like it's ending and you're opening
up hormuz that that would be pretty bullish to bring back 80k btcs right assuming
all this if you take if you had to take a month call on cues
what would you go for um
Well, I mean, a month, you're waiting two weeks, so, you know,
45 days, I feel like, would be more desirable, you know, if
you went out. Or even over here, like, if you go to
May 15th, right, you could go, wow, they're actually pricey. Wait, hold
on. I'm on puts. There we go. Yeah. So... You know,
you want liquidity, so you want the open interest to be more elevated.
You know, 57 days out, 605, because that's going to get you your
607 target is in the money. 600, you know, those have good open
interest, those levels. 600, 605, 57 days out. You know, that's assuming all
that stuff happens, you know. April, going out 30 days to April 17th,
you know, you're saving on 600, you're saving... Ah, that's
$12. And if you go all the way out to
May, which buys you more time, less theta decay that
way, you're looking at $19. Yeah, I mean, it's like
40% cheaper, so I get it. But, you know, the
volatility is going to be wild. Anyway, let's see here.
Iran views the conflict as an existential threat. Well, duh.
We need a guarantee and won't retreat even if the
war continues for one year. Iranian... if iran
is destroyed the whole region is destroyed the guard
the iranian the iranian or islamic revolutionary guard is
ideologically motivated they're not scared to die they are
convinced this re this was regime change and if
they agree to a ceasefire the us and israel
will come back right if iran is destroyed the
whole region is destroyed uh that implies
Implies more Iranian counterattacks.
Retaliation, I could say.
Per FT, guards are
IRGC. 100 EK strong
is ideologically motivated to
prevent regime change. Okay.
And need guarantees. America
and Israel won't be
back. Hmm.
claims that the republic wants to
negotiate is delusional so iran's foreign
minister so far uh oh hold
on there's an ecb update ecb
adverse scenario why is that there
twice slap that into here ecb
adverse scenario sees inflation at 3.5
in 2026. yikes okay so back
to this
because i went to edit that i think
it deleted my other comment that's stupid okay
let me delete that one stupid dang it
kevin yeah that's exactly what it just did
dang it okay that's fine and it wasn't
that much iran deal requirements okay so foreign
minister foreign uh minister of iran says claims
of truths or negotiations are delusional.
Okay. Then we have they fear US
and Israel coming back. IRGC, 150k strong,
ideologically motivated to prevent regime change. Truce.
Okay. Oh yeah, and then we wrote
if Iran is destroyed, the whole region
is destroyed. This is their threat. That's
their threat. Yeah, like you say, scorched
earth threat. Okay. Partially, straightforward moves
would be partially weaponized. Israel says they're ready to
go for as long as required. Yeah, because Iran's
implying they're ready to go for a year. Iran
implies ready to go for a year. And Israel
says they're ready as long as necessary. Oh, another
ECB update just came through. ECB...
Looks at a Q2/Q3 recession
in the Eurozone. Ooh, because
of that inflation. That would
be here. ECB adverse scenario
shows recession. That's soon. In
Q2/Q3 2026. More intense prolonged.
And then they have a
severe scenario. Oh, that's okay.
The severe scenario shows recession.
with headline inflation inflation at 4.4 in 2026. aha
all right so they got their three scenarios i
guess okay the us doesn't know how to start
or finish a war in the region says someone
who is close to the irgc we're not going
to sit here and let the zionist regime and
the us establish a new order u.s have vowed
of u.s and israel about to destroy missile capabilities
yeah Also wants to make
sure that the world economy pays a sufficient price so they
will think twice about resuming the war. I mean, that seems
to be exactly the strategy right now. Iran wants to damage
world economy to impart a price on the globe to make
anyone think twice about attacking Iran again.
Uh, most effective weapon seems to be closing this straight. I think they
know that. I think they'll fight pretty hard to keep that straight, as
much as they can. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over
the past two years revealed how disruptive the threat of attacks can be
over a lengthy period. Also true. Mmm, alright. Welcome, AnotherAmerican91.
What else have we got here? Japan, softbank fee,
KIPWC, US regularities unveil plan to cut wrap capital
requirements by 4.8%. Let's see here. Bank of America
apologizes for the bet against European private credit. Are
you kidding me? We were just covering this in
Bloomberg. Banks now offering away to short private credit.
Bank of America now apologizing
for this short offering. Okay,
hold on a sec. ECB
comment again. ECB here says
severe scenario. Severe scenario shows
inflation continuing to rise. to 6.3
percent in q127 wow that's with the recession before
that that's wild because their severe scenario also shows
a recession in q2 q3 26. that's not good
i'll always subscribe to throw shade hell yeah another
american 91 let's go uh all right recommendation has
been withdrawn based on a review of new new
information okay bank of america has withdrawn a recommendation that
clients bet against european countries and potentially exposed to private credit
shocks saying it made factual inaccuracies which are on a recommendation
that clients bet against european companies uh who made kind of
factual inaccuracies thank you recent sales commentary that had circulated which
advised betting against private credit have
been pulled based on a review of
new information. Oh, okay. Okay. Now they're
saying, oh, JK. They're basically saying, JK,
JK, JK, JK. That was wrong information.
And we apologize. Oh, man. They probably
got some nasty phone calls. Okay. All
right. Let's go. Let's go see.
Some of the other political ones, because sometimes they have
good insights on the war. How the left plans to
start winning primaries again? Let's see. Fine, after Tron says
Israel won't attack Ron Gauss fields anymore. Yeah, we've heard
that before. That number could move. Could move in what
direction? Taking more money. I think that number could move.
Obviously, it takes some money to kill bad guys. Okay.
Alright. Nothing really in Axios.
okay what about post uh let's see airfares are
spiking sustained elevation gas prices could bring a reckoning
for oil economic fallout hits the rest of the
world harder drones over army base where rubio hexeth
live race security concerns advances in a bind supporting
a war that could cost him politically mediterranean diet
I love that there's more coverage coming out over the Mediterranean diet.
I'm such a big fan of, uh, I've never heard of this,
found the DASH diet. I don't know what DASH is. That I
haven't heard of before. What's DASH? DASH. DASH stands for Dietary Approach
to Stop Hypertension. Okay, so what is it? Vegetables, nuts, and whole
grains. Yeah! Big fan. I mean, that's basically the core of the
Mediterranean diet anyway, so old days. Okay. What else?
Polio, travel advisory, both parties peer. Okay, boring, boring,
boring. Okay, let's go to political. Oh, let's go
also to economist. Recession, which I argue hasn't happened
since we'll kill inflation. Well, yeah, I think the
reason, and that's the standard thinking, is that a
recession will kill inflation, which is correct in the
longer term. I think the reason they're saying
this is because of oil prices. I think
their expectation here of higher inflation versus deflation,
even during recession, would be the expectation that
higher oil prices will lead to higher headline
inflation, even as underlying core inflation uh shrinks
or or just straight up deflates right expectation there
we go uh war in iran is making donald
trump weaker and angrier nice image okay let's take
a look at that all right let's see what
we got cooking here and then we got to
do a summary all right and then how's the
oil doing well it's still at 111. it's good
all right let's see here No politician can deny political gravity like
the man whose supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan 6th only for him to be
re-elected with a bigger share of the vote. And it's hard to imagine a crisis
more precisely engineered to intercept the trajectory of his presidency than this ill-judged, heedless war
against Iran. Even a short war will alter the course of his second term, one
that lasts months will bring it crashing to the earth. The fight against Iran. The
reason is that the fight against Iran diminishes Mr. Trump's three political superpowers. His
ability to impose his own reality in the world, his remorseless use of leverage
and dominion over the Republican Party. Uh-huh. Wars accelerate change. Trump has shown a
remarkable ability to twist facts. sure enough he insists that he has already triumphed
in iran yet the war tells the truth of its own iran's regime cannot
win in any conventional sense but despite widespread spread destruction of infrastructure and the
assassinations of senior leaders iran's regime survives and its 400 kilograms or so of
near bomb ready uranium remains at large i mean this is true
So far, nothing really to write down here. This is just commentary, it seems, but
I'll be ready to write something down if they say something interesting. Parallel war against
the global energy industry. Brent crude spiking over 110 now, which it is. It's true.
Time is on Iran's side. I mean, that's a good point. I actually think that's
a good point. See, I'm going to try to cut out the economists bias because
they don't like Trump. Right. And just kind of get to the meat. Which I
think this is actually a really good point
right here. Time is on Iran side. Economist
claims time is on Iran side. I agree
the more the or the longer the war
goes on, the more the stock market falls,
the more oil rises, the more yields bear
steepen and the more pissed off Trump gets.
Iran probably realizes this. Hence their, how
should I put it, ability to re-ramp
strikes when they want. You know, it
indicates some intentional planning. That is this
chart I'll pull up. Chart, chart, chart,
chart, chart, chart, chart, yesterday. Boom. Got
it. That's this puppy. You know, the launch volumes
moving up. Somebody says, I kind of feel like I'm at the
point where America is too dumb for democracy. Not going to lie.
Electing Donald Trump was the nail in the coffin, says another American
91. Somebody says, electing Biden showed how far this country had gotten
in terms of incompetence. I mean, in fairness, Biden wasn't like demented
when he ran for office, as far as we could tell, right?
Like, That last debate that Biden, like, stumbled out onto the stage on, which we
covered live, you know, I covered my reaction live. We knew instantly that Biden had
to go. I think I made, like, 17 videos going, Biden needs to drop out.
And everybody's like, he's not going to drop out. He's not going to drop out.
Like, I got so many hate comments. People go, he's not going to drop out.
And then he drops out. And I'm like, see, I told you so. But no,
Biden really decayed in office. You know, that was... And it was a fast decline.
Yeah, that was a rapid decline, which is unfortunate. I think Biden was in
part seen as a little bit of a continuation of Obama, but maybe probably
a little bit too progressive. You know, it got a little too, probably too
run by the cronies inside the Biden White House. Anyway. Okay, so,
by contrast, Iran appears to have plenty of drones. For as long as
it restricts traffic in the Strait, oil prices will climb and the damage
to the world economy will grow. Let's see. Trump then quickly reversed course,
pretending he never needed the help after saying he needed help to open
the Strait. Grant safe passage to the Strait. Let's see. In recent days,
signaling that it will grant safe passage to the Strait from the country
is a sign that it needs to use access as a bargaining tool.
Okay. Okay. given that
leverage iran may hold out for more than just a return to the status
quo it may ask for sanctions to be lifted or an american commitment to
abandon some of its bases or restrain israel if recession looms in the us
and the stock market starts to fall would trump escalate by seizing karg island
or would he buckle right so uh economists economist argues seizing
Karg Island, which the Wall Street Journal
suggested could intensify pressures. Answer depends on
Trump's hold on his party. 13 American
service members have died. Seizing an island
or extracting the 460 kilograms of highly
enriched uranium would put more American lives
on the line. 13 dead so far.
In private, many elected Republicans are seething. Mr. Trump's failure to heed warnings, typical contempt
of his strategy, and his hubris in thinking he knows better than people who really
do. Republicans are now highly likely to lose control of the House in the midterm
elections. Their chances of losing the Senate has risen by 10 points. The worse the
defeat, the lamer duck the president will be, and the less influence he will have.
As the war drags on, Mr. Trump could seek a way out and look for
a win somewhere else, like in Cuba. But Mr. Trump is not in
full control of this war. Iran's attack on a gas hub in Qatar
shows it has cards to play. Yeah, that's true. I mean, The Economist
has a good balancing argument here. You know, The Economist suggests the Qatar
gas field attack shows Iran still has power. This kind of suggests if
we took an island, Iran might lash
out again at other infrastructure. Which, if
Iran does that, Trump says he'll destroy
Karg Island. That's where you get Tanya.
Kiss and bye-bye! Kiss and bye-bye! That's
bad. Okay. We did like a gif
of Tanya. Tanya, C4.
Uh, where... Let me see if I
can just YouTube one. Tanya... No, there's
not a good one I could find
quickly. Oh well. Alright. So anyway. Uh,
let's see here. Fighting ended tomorrow. It
could take four to six weeks to
restore oil production. Uh, either way, uh,
once fighting ends, uh, restoring oil production
should take four to six weeks or
more. Okay. Let's see. These are some other
things Trump could do. Lash out at home. Blah, blah,
blah, blah, blah. Makes Trump a very bad loser. Be
warned. He makes a very bad loser. It's hard to
see how Mr. Trump ends up being a winner in
Iran. Be warned. He makes a very bad loser. Nice.
U.S. Embassy in Lithuania. The U.S. will provide further calibrated
sanctions relief for the Belarusian sector. U.S., uh... Okay, sanctions
relief on Belarus, got it. All right, what do we
got over here? Q's are still trying to crawl their
way up. Crawl. It's, you know, it's been a ride
up, you know, since the first five-minute dip. We bottomed
over here. We're up about five bucks on the Q's.
It's about 1%. But there's still some work to do
here. Haifa Oil Refinery in northern Israel. Uh-oh.
Uh, if that's true, then this talk about, okay, we're not
going to hit our infrastructure, any oil or gas infrastructure anymore
is wrong. Let me see. Yeah. Let me see if I
can get some more on that. That's going to piss off
Israel. Let's see here. Yeah. I mean, I'm getting a lot
of hits on this. See, look at this. If you just
look on X, big fire underway at Haifa's oil refinery complex
in Northern Israel. Let's write that down. Uh, Israel, Israel.
Fire reported via X at Haifa oil
refinery, potentially from a ballistic missile. Ballistic
missile. Here's another hit to infrastructure. It's
not good. How is oil? No, oil's
still at 111. Plumes of smoke. Supplies
about 50-60% of the country's fuel. I
don't know if that's true. Let's fact
check that really quick.
Okay, so... Israeli output. Let's
see if we can get
some... Hmm. Ah, there. I
think that's what it's called,
the Bazan Refinery at Haifa.
Uh, Bazan. Bazan output. Let's
see. Okay, Bazan Group. 197
barrels, that's what it... It
supplies nearly, yeah, 60% of
domestic diesel and 50% of
gasoline. Okay. Okay. bazan
group they're the ones who run it
okay run by bazan where is that
uh that ai overview getting this from
oh directly from here oh here we
go 60 ah here we go all
right well at least here's the citation
produces 60 of israel's diesel and 50
of gasoline hmm let's see here
Last year it was struck two, killed
three workers. So this is a March
8 article where they first claimed to
strike. So this is their second attempt,
at least. Now at least the second
attempt since another strike potentially occurred on
March 8. Carried out by Khyber Shekin
missiles. Video circulated, visuals, okay. Let's
see if anything else has come
up. Direct hits by Hezbollah on
a port in Haifa. But we
don't know who sent this. That
was March 10th. Some of these
are older posts. What a mess.
Okay. Got it. So, what else?
We have... Let's see here. Gold
mining stocks set to erase 2026
gains as rate cut bets fade.
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Gold topped on
Warsh. Bond traders no longer
price in any cuts. That's not a surprise.
White House is lost in the weave. Okay.
How's the journal? Anything new here? No. Nothing
new here. Let's check the live blogs. That
was Swarmer. We talked about them yesterday. That's
Micron. Crypto.com lays off 12% of staff in
AI pivot. Huh. Olive Garden slims down dishes
to drive sales. New lighter portions. Oh, that's
cute. Okay, let me see what else
is being said. Uh, Doomburg. Let's see. Inflation target,
fresh consequences, blah blah blah. Central banks aren't exactly
playing with the house money, blah blah blah. This
doesn't matter. Global hawkish reset threatens an already fragile
Tate. Stocks look defensive as the global reset in
interest rate pricing is settling in. settling in but
it's far from capitulation no panic just yet but markets
are waking up to the prolonged shock if it persists
earnings will be next to crack bank of england is
a warning on u.s inflation shock still seen as transitory
okay all right let's do a little summary of what
we've got so far a lot of info and we
can keep hunting see what else is going on out
there all right so Any updates on HouseHack? HouseHack's
doing great. Still on trajectory for our Q2 release of Valuation AI. We
got some final sign-off on some ADUs we built. Closing escrow today on
another deal that we bought from our Wedgefinder, which we think is going
to create like $500,000 of equity for the company. An upside equity for
the company because it was such a good deal.
The app found it, which is
great. So, yeah, I think we
are kicking butt. Okay. Let's get
punched in here. And we'll do
a little geopolitical summary. Geopolitical. All
right. So, I guess we could
loop in some of the reasons
to be bullish as well. So,
there are reasons to be bullish
and bearish, obviously. But let's break
this down. Okay,
take a little sip here. So I don't have to do
it during. All right, let's do it. There are some reasons
to be bullish about what's going on in the economy and
potentially the stock market. In this video, we're going to break
down a timeframe for when the most ideal time to buy
the dip might be and should the dip be bought at
all. But first, we have to understand what's going on in Iran because there are
some things developing that could be really good, though others argue could be bad. And
so I think the best way to break this down is just lay it all
on the table. So let's get right into it. So first. Donald Trump said last
night that he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack that the Israelis conducted
on the gas field. The Israelis said, okay, we won't do it again without working
with the United States. Although the Israelis also said that they coordinated the strike with
the United States. So maybe they coordinated with part of the United States and Donald
Trump is pretending he didn't know about it or maybe he truly didn't know about
it, but whatever. Iran's like, hey, our bite is stronger. We could attack even more
of your infrastructure. In fact, we held back yesterday after that attack on Qatar. We
could have done more because y'all are saying you wanna deescalate. Now, this could be
like a little chihuahua saying their bite is actually stronger than it really is, but
What's bearish is we woke up this morning to hear that Semref, an oil refinery
in Saudi Arabia, which is on the Red Sea side. So Persian Gulf here and
then all the way on the other side, the Red Sea side, you know, above
Yemen, where the Houthis like disrupting shipping lines. That refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked
by Iran. And then now, just about eight minutes ago, we started seeing reports that
Iran, The Haifa oil refinery in Israel was potentially struck in this just minutes ago.
Reports of a big fire underway at this refining complex, potentially due to a ballistic
missile, which, you know, these things sound escalatory. That's not good. But anyway. So we
have this talk that on one hand Trump and the Iranians are saying, okay, okay,
we're not going to target infrastructure anymore. And then Semref gets attacked this morning and
now the Haifa oil refinery is attacked in northern Israel, which supplies 60% of Israel's
diesel and 50% of Israel's gasoline. So this is sort of a very important refining
facility for Israel's economy. So we're kind of like, OK, we're hearing words that are
good, but actions also speak louder than words. And so this isn't good. It kind
of counters some of the optimism, which isn't good. Right now, Iran again says there
will be zero restraint if our infrastructure is struck again and any end to this
war must address the damage that was conducted to our civilian sites. That's what Iran
is saying. Now, some people are reading that and saying, okay, what if the
U.S. doesn't strike the infrastructure again? What if we just take the infrastructure? Now, this
is a really interesting potential argument. And this has to do with the U.S. Marines
potentially going to secure an island off the coast of, well, Iran. Now, this is
from a Wall Street Journal suggestion. The Wall Street Journal has a pretty big
article on this. What they suggest is that the 2,200 Marines and then about
the 2,500 sailors that are en route or en route over to the Middle
East right now and to the Strait could end up being used to control
the Strait of Hormuz. And potentially what we might do with our Marines is we
might end up taking one of these islands. And so the Wall Street Journal breaks
down and suggests that there are these various different islands, whether it's Karg Island, Kish
Island, Kashum Island, or Hormuz Island. It's literally an island called Hormuz Island, which is
right in the Strait of Hormuz. But anyway, maybe these could be utilized as as
a way to stage US troops to counterattack any kind of
Iranian assaults against the straight itself. Now, The Economist says there's a
really big downside risk of taking an island here. If we end up taking one
of these islands, such as Hormuz Island here, which has Rainbow Valley. You can see
[100:00] I recently viewed Rainbow Valley. It didn't look very rainbow-ish to me. It also has
[100:06] a Portuguese castle, which looks like a pile of turd. They also have a salt
[100:12] goddess, which is not the blonde I was expecting. And then they have a Saffron
[100:18] Valley, which that's kind of cool. That one's almost got a five-star review, by the
[100:23] way. And then they've even got a Turtle Cliff over here, which didn't really look
[100:29] like it had a lot of turtles. And then there's Red Beach over here, which
[100:34] that actually did look really cool. But anyway, taking this mountainous island over here under
[100:40] Bondara Boss... Could be an opportunity for our amphibious assault units which are on the
[100:46] way from Japan. They're expected to arrive at the end of next week. So potentially
[100:52] Friday, Saturday, Sunday, somewhere in that range. They could potentially arrive in this area and
[100:58] take one of these islands and use it to help secure the Strait by counterattacking
[101:03] any kind of Iranian attacks from this coastline. We are currently using A-10s and Apache
[101:09] helicopters. as well as dropping 5,000-pound bombs along the southern flank, per
[101:15] the Department of War update today. to try to minimize some of the opportunities
[101:21] for Iran to launch strikes into the Strait. Obviously, securing the Strait is a really
[101:26] important tool for leverage. Iran's scorched earth mentality is, hey, if we can cause a
[101:31] recession in the global economy, we can show the rest of the world this is
[101:37] what happens when you attack Iran. If you mess with Iran, you guys will end
[101:42] up in a recession. Don't do it. Now, there's also talk by the Wall Street
[101:47] Journal that we could potentially take Karg Island, which is somewhere over here. Anyway, here,
[101:53] you know what? Let me cheat. I will cheat and just go to my little
[101:58] map over here. There we go. Karg Island. Oh, yeah, it's up here under the
[102:03] Bashir port. Anyway, oh, so maybe that was this. Anyway, yes, see here it's labeled
[102:08] Kark Island. Is this it? Yeah, yeah, this is it. This is it. Yeah, there
[102:14] it is. Translated in English. Carg. It's just they call it carg. Okay. You threw
[102:19] me for a loop there with the spelling. But anyway, here's the oil refining or
[102:24] sorry, the oil storage infrastructure, which was really fascinating about the storage infrastructure is the
[102:29] Wall Street Journal says Marines could also potentially take this and use it as leverage.
[102:34] If you take this, you not only control these ports, which are heavily utilized for
[102:38] oil exports from Iran, not only the storage, which can get piped here, but then
[102:43] the exports by loading it up onto oil ships over here, but it also has
[102:47] an airfield. So this is a very desirable island to take. It's just not as
[102:52] useful because it's not as close to the Strait by any means. And getting over
[102:58] there is also going to be a little bit challenging. But it could be done.
[103:03] Wall Street Journal suggests taking this could be then used as a negotiation ploy to
[103:08] try to end this war with Iran. Now the problem is the foreign minister of
[103:14] Iran says that any claims of negotiations or truths are just delusional and that
[103:20] the IRGC is 150,000 strong force of military, you know, mosaic style leadership, uh,
[103:25] uh, forces that are capable of launching their own drones and missiles whenever they
[103:31] want without centralized leadership. This is why they can keep striking, uh, even though we've
[103:37] taken out some of their leaders. We were talking about this yesterday, how their strikes
[103:41] are actually ramping up. I'll pull up the sheet again just so you could see
[103:46] it. I pulled the sheet yesterday evening. This is potentially because of the mosaic style
[103:51] of leadership that Iran has, where they have this opportunity to launch from multiple different
[103:57] regions under localized command rather than relying on centralized command. There's no single commander in
[104:02] chief, so to speak. They can decide to launch and strike their enemies centrally. as
[104:07] they'd like, which then also makes, you know, listening to the verbal commentary that, all
[104:11] right, if you don't strike our infrastructure, we won't strike yours kind of loony because
[104:15] under a mosaic style leadership, they could just sort of do what they want, which
[104:19] is problematic for negotiating with them. And I think Israel realizes this, which is why
[104:23] Israel wants to go for full regime change. But Iran knows this. And this is
[104:28] why Iran implies that they're ready to go for a year. Israel says they're ready
[104:32] to go for as long as necessary. And the problem with all this is Iran
[104:37] knows the longer this war goes on, the higher oil prices go. The higher oil
[104:41] prices go, the more the stock market goes down, the more interest rates go up,
[104:46] the more yields bear steepen, which pisses off Donald Trump because it means the bond
[104:50] market now puts more pressure on private credit which are the same funds that are
[104:55] begging trump to get money from 401ks to bail them out so everything hurts the
[105:00] longer this war goes on and iran's probably smart in that they realize that like
[105:04] i mean they could listen to really any you know financial pundit who knows i
[105:09] guess they could listen to me kevin uh as well and um and and recognize
[105:14] that the longer this goes on the more people estimate we are going to be
[105:18] in a recession Now, the European Central Bank did make an argument earlier today
[105:24] that if this war extends for a period of time, there are two potential
[105:30] scenarios. There's an adverse scenario where inflation really rises, unfortunately, to about 4.4% on
[105:35] a headline in 2026. However, there's also a severe scenario where under the severe scenario,
[105:41] we end up in a recession in the second and third quarter in Europe in
[105:46] 2026. And inflation actually continues to rise all the way up to 6.3% in the
[105:51] first quarter of 2027, which is odd because we usually we think of recessions as
[105:56] deflationary. But if oil prices skyrocket because the war keeps going on, you can see
[106:01] markets are going to be panicked. European Central Bank is going to be panicked. ECB
[106:07] warns that a recession is possible and of course recession becomes possible in the United
[106:12] States as well. Goldman Sachs says it's going to take $150 per barrel oil to
[106:17] see a recession in the United States. The Wall Street Journal interviewed 50 economists. They
[106:23] argue it might only take $138 to indicate a recession in the United States. Although
[106:28] recession risk so far only at 32%, so maybe that's not necessarily bad yet. But
[106:34] then again, markets are mostly pricing in a short-term recession here. So like, where's the
[106:39] bullishness in all of this? Because so far, a lot of this is pretty bearish.
[106:44] In fact, if you look at copper prices, copper prices are now negative year to
[106:50] date. Copper prices are often a leading indicator that there could be underlying economic problems
[106:55] that are forming. All of these are issues. So what potentially is bullish? Because even
[107:01] Christine Lagarde came out this morning and says, we have no idea how long this
[107:06] is going to take. The longer it goes on, the worse this gets. We're starting
[107:11] from a good place, but a major shock is unfolding. The longer this goes on,
[107:16] the worse it gets. Again, everybody's saying it's not a secret. And frankly, Iran realizes
[107:22] this. So What are the potential reasons to be bullish? And what are the timeframes
[107:27] to be bullish? Well, in my opinion, there are a few. First, historically, geopolitical issues
[107:32] are usually a buy the dip. In fact, they've almost always been a buy the
[107:38] dip opportunity. If you look through history, whether it was 9-11, Russia, Ukraine, whatever. Geo,
[107:43] desert storm, geopolitical issues are almost always a buy the dip. You buy the dip
[107:48] because there's panic in the short term. And then as things chill out or people
[107:54] get sort of used to or find different ways to rejigger supply chains, the markets
[108:00] go up. Now, that's one take. Now, a second thing is that there's a lot
[108:05] of money that's potentially going to flow into the banking sector soon. We're expecting potentially
[108:10] $200 billion of money to flow into the banking sector through looser capital rules for
[108:15] banks. Now, that could lead banks like JP Morgan to issue significant buybacks because their
[108:21] stocks have fallen quite a chunk recently because of fears of private credit exposure. You
[108:26] could see JP Morgan had this rising wedge, which typically forestalls a fall or decline
[108:31] in stock price, which is exactly what happened here. And JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo,
[108:36] and Bank of America will probably be the biggest beneficiaries of this. But $200 billion
[108:41] could be used not only for buying back their own stock, but they could also
[108:46] use it to lend. And lending is good because it usually generates GDP
[108:52] growth. Usually. That's why seeing a bear steepener where yields are going
[108:58] up, two-year yield is skyrocketing, the 10-year yield is skyrocketing. That hurts
[109:04] private credit because it constricts lending and it constricts financial conditions. Tightening
[109:10] financial conditions are not great for economic growth, investment, GDP growth, whatever.
[109:16] So, Looser capital requirements, bullish stimulus. Geopolitical, usually
[109:22] by the dip. The amphibious Marine group showing up late next week
[109:28] to hopefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz does create risk for more American lives being
[109:33] lost, as we expect Iran will fight hard to maintain control of the Strait. We've
[109:39] already lost 13 Americans. But if we are successful, which I will not underestimate our
[109:44] Marines, which I expect we will be successful at reopening the Hormuz or Strait of
[109:50] Hormuz with our Marines, we If we're able to do that, that is going to
[109:55] be a very bullish catalyst for markets. Now, at the same time, we are going
[110:01] to be prepping for the April 3rd jobs report, which hopefully shows a rebound from
[110:06] the February pain as we get revisions for February, revisions for January, and we get
[110:11] March data. So we're basically going to get three data sets, the revision for Jan,
[110:17] Feb, and then the initial March data. That comes out on April 3rd, which means
[110:23] not necessarily next week, but the week after next week is going to be
[110:28] really desirable or potentially interesting for markets. So that timeframe between March 30th to
[110:34] April 3rd That could be when we see the Strait reopen on a bullish outlook.
[110:39] That could be when the Marines, you know, are able to take control of what
[110:44] they're able to take care of. Hopefully Iran doesn't retaliate against, let's say, that's the
[110:48] economist's fear, is that if we take Karg Island, that, you know, Iran goes scorched
[110:53] earth even more so than they already have. Hopefully the war chills out by then.
[110:58] And hopefully we get a good jobs report. And then geopolitics will prove to be
[111:02] a by the dip. Because... Well, frankly, the war will start relaxing, we'll get positive
[111:08] jobs data, hopefully, and everything can just chill. Some of this panic can chillax.
[111:14] A lot of that, unfortunately, though, is hopium. So while those are reasons to
[111:20] be bullish, they're probably more reasons to be optimistic. Because obviously we have to
[111:25] balance this with the fact that Kuwait's petrol company just suspended operations after their
[111:31] attacks. Qatar's energy CEO, Qatar Energy, CEO of that company called Qatar Energy, they say
[111:37] they're going to lose $20 billion in ARR due to the attacks against Qatar yesterday.
[111:42] And they are going to potentially have to declare force majeure on some of their
[111:48] liquefied petroleum, their condensate oil, which is basically used for gasoline, their mixtures for plastics.
[111:54] helium, which is important in chip manufacturing. They think they're going to lose $20 billion
[111:59] in ARR, and they think it's going to take as long as three to five
[112:04] years to rebuild the damage that Iran conducted just on yesterday's strike. Now, Pete Hegseth
[112:09] is asking Congress for $200 billion to keep this war going. And Tulsi Gabbard mentioned
[112:14] this morning that Trump and Israel have differing goals and that this time is different.
[112:19] Pete Hegseth says that Iran cannot be trusted to end their nuclear program and we
[112:24] will finish this and there's no time frame for ending this conflict. None of that
[112:29] sounds bullish, like this is going to be short term. That all sounds like, well,
[112:34] $200 billion. And of course, we will finish this and Iran can't be trusted. None
[112:38] of that sounds good. We've now struck 7,000 targets in Iran, which is up from
[112:43] the previous estimates by a lot. And these expectations that our amphibious units are just
[112:49] one week away do also create the risk of more retaliation from Iran. Now,
[112:55] Scott Bassett from the Treasury Department potentially argues that we should just lift sanctions
[113:00] on Iran to relieve pressure on oil prices for Iranian oil already at sea.
[113:07] This seems really backwards because if you're trying to punish Iran, why are you going
[113:12] to lift sanctions on Iran to increase the profit on the oil that they could
[113:18] collect just so you could temporarily push down oil prices in the broader market? It
[113:23] seems like you're shooting yourself in the foot. But then again, this administration does things
[113:29] like that, sometimes without logic. At the same time, I just got an update
[113:34] that Iran has indeed now claimed responsibility for targeting the Haifa oil refineries, which is
[113:40] also bearish because literally two hours ago, Israel's like, all right, we won't attack infrastructure
[113:45] again. And then Iran's like, all right, we restrained ourselves. And then two hours later,
[113:51] we bombed your refining plant, Israel. What do you think Israel's going to do now?
[113:56] Now Israel's probably going to go, hey, America, they just bombed ours. Now we
[114:02] got to bomb theirs. And the tit for tat keeps going. It's not the
[114:08] kind of tit we usually like talking about on the channel. Unfortunately, Donald Trump
[114:14] has argued that if Iran ends up striking more oil and natural gas infrastructure,
[114:19] which they literally just did, Donald Trump says he will completely eradicate Karg Island.
[114:26] That would devastate global supply chains because a lot of oil comes from here. This
[114:31] would be devastating for oil. We will probably see $150 per barrel oil if this
[114:37] is done. And it is exactly what Donald Trump's threatened. Donald Trump in a truth
[114:42] social post last night said, the Israelis, they did something without my knowledge, even though
[114:48] they said they coordinated with the United States. And they're going to stop. And
[114:54] as long as Iran doesn't hit any of our infrastructure again,
[114:59] we won't go to the level of destroying Karg Island. Well,
[115:05] they literally just did. Iranian missile targeted Haifa oil refineries. Iran's
[115:11] news agency said. It's now factored in. Not great. So... What's
[115:16] the escalation and response going to be? And what does this mean for timeframe? Well,
[115:22] in my opinion, I think the best timeframe is patience over the next week. Let's
[115:28] get to the arrival of the amphibious units, maybe even wait to getting to that
[115:34] jobs data. Pricing might be a little bit more expensive by the time we get
[115:39] to April 3rd. because maybe things start rebounding, right? But I think a safer
[115:45] way to hedge on buying the dip is just wait for April 3rd. April 3rd
[115:50] at 530 in the morning. By then, we're going to know, did our amphibious groups
[115:55] take control of anything? Did Donald Trump eradicate Park Island? Probably not. Have there been
[116:00] more strikes on oil and natural gas infrastructure? Is our jobs economy truly falling off
[116:05] a cliff or was February just a one-off? And as long as we get a
[116:09] positive jobs report there and things chill out with these strikes on infrastructure, which... As
[116:14] it's happening right now, it doesn't seem like they are. That's probably the better time
[116:19] to decide, okay, time to be bullish. Because right now, a lot of the news,
[116:24] even though we're trying to say there are some reasons to be bullish, a lot
[116:29] of the news that's actually unfolding is just factually bearish. But that is what happens
[116:34] during geopolitical crises. So with all of that said, I wish you the best of
[116:39] luck on what the hell is going on, because this sucks. Cool. All
[116:45] right. So, uh, let's see what else we have here.
[116:50] Uh, all right. So, U.S. State Department approved supply sale
[116:56] of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles to UAE. Uh, good for
[117:01] defense contractors. I guess they'll get more contracts, huh? Let's
[117:07] see. Uh, let's see. Israel does report damage to the
[117:12] Haifa refineries. Unclear how long... or how much damage iranian
[117:18] no casualties though uh f-35 damaged by some suspected iranian
[117:24] fire makes emergency landing oh f-35 makes emergency landing f-35
[117:30] those things are freaking awesome uh okay so what else
[117:35] have we got here let's uh former minneapolis fed president
[117:41] on path forward for rate cuts let's listen to that
[117:46] for a moment let's let's see
[117:52] Yeah, I mean, 11 to 1, even Waller didn't dissent.
[117:58] Myron, of course, is going to be Myron. But a
[118:04] lot of chatter yesterday, Gary, that Powell is not going
[118:10] out as a lame duck necessarily. Well, I think that's
[118:15] true. The Fed is an institution kind of like a family in some ways. And
[118:21] if you try to back them into a corner and put a lot of pressure
[118:27] on the leader, you can think about the way a typical family would react.
[118:33] But I don't think that's the dominant concern here or the dominant feature. I think
[118:39] what's really going on, and I think we need to all bear this in mind,
[118:44] the Fed is trying to do what's best for economic performance in this country so
[118:50] that U.S. residents benefit from economic performance. It's not always easy to make a decision
[118:56] about what that ought to be. But in terms of where they're trying to go,
[119:01] the beneficiary should be residents of the United States and the Fed as I know
[119:07] it, that's always been the case. Gary, we always look to you for insight and
[119:13] understanding behind the meeting and the decisions. Thanks for joining us. Come by set sometime
[119:19] soon. Very stern. Thank you. Let's go over here.
[119:28] to chat GPT and GPT-3 that caused this AI boom. And so, you
[119:34] know, to some degree, it's justified that, you know, VCs like us and
[119:40] others are going to back teams that are going to take a crack
[119:45] at building the next open AI and Anthropic. And if there's a company that has
[119:51] that potential with a research team that has the caliber to produce a novel model
[119:55] architecture, it's the kind of bets that we should be making as an industry. Really?
[120:00] Now, are the valuations too high? It's all going to be commoditized. I can't argue
[120:04] that, but we have to work backwards in some ways. these teams need to hire
[120:09] very expensive researchers. They need to have gigawatts of compute to train models, and that's
[120:14] very, very expensive. And as you think about the cap table, we have to make
[120:19] sure that the founders and the team are incentivized. And to some degree, if they're
[120:25] going to raise hundreds of millions or a billion dollars out of the gates it
[120:30] means working backwards if we're going to buy 20 as vcs then the math kind
[120:36] of takes care of itself in terms of the valuation so that's where we are
[120:41] today somewhat justified a little overvalued even can silicon valley venture can american venture can
[120:47] develop world and venture support the sort of numbers that are involved if middle eastern
[120:52] money becomes harder to access at this moment yes look Today there's a lot of
[120:58] debate about whether the model companies should be profitable and self-sustaining. I don't believe that's
[121:03] the right approach. We're just at the very beginning and there's a lot of R&D
[121:08] left to do. There's a lot of business model transformation that's happening today, obviously with
[121:14] the SaaSpocalypse. Fundamental existing business models are being disrupted heavily. And so it's a time
[121:19] where we are, as an industry, still figuring out what to do in terms
[121:25] of how to fund all these investments. Today, at least, globally, the
[121:30] foundational model companies have been able to raise capital. But at some
[121:36] point, I do believe it becomes somewhat sovereign. This guy's so boring.
[121:41] Alright, looks like oil's popping off again. Alright, you guys are boring.
[121:47] This is why I've been tuning in way less to the lamestream
[121:52] media. All right, what do I got here? So we're now moving back up again.
[121:58] Oil is now on its way back to 113 on Brent after this Haifa strike,
[122:03] which isn't great. I mean, we saw it, what, within minutes of the strike happening.
[122:08] We started talking about it. And it looks like the market has... slowly chilled out
[122:14] a little bit following these strikes, which makes sense because, you know, Donald
[122:20] Trump did just promise big retaliation if there are more strikes on infrastructure.
[122:26] And here you go, very next morning, which is ridiculous. Crap, just keep
[122:32] going on. We don't want that. Anyway, you can see the queues here.
[122:38] This all really since the strikes in Israel here. Not great. Not great
[122:44] at all. quarry's
[122:49] back at 80 bucks yeah just above its line there oracle
[122:55] oracle oracle should have seen this coming oracle all right let's
[123:01] go see what else is going on doom bugger oops i
[123:07] accidentally wrote bloomberg okay trump just yapped we will talk about
[123:13] trade with japan okay uh let's see jeffries to give first
[123:19] look at wall street earnings after market turmoil right because that
[123:25] has to do with um What's it called? Private credit.
[123:31] Everybody's going to be paying attention to that. Okay. We
[123:36] getting more Trump commentary coming? Let's see here. Here's some...
[123:42] Oh, no significant damage. Okay, but it was hit. Damage
[123:47] to electricity grid, not submissive. Okay, hit in the missile
[123:53] barrage. Refinery's down as much as 8% in Tel Aviv
[123:58] trading. F-35 made emergency landing. Repercussions on energy supplies. Israel struck naval infrastructure in
[124:04] the Caspian Sea. Shipping activity remains severely constrained. Commercial traffic effectively frozen. Japan's Takaichi. Global
[124:07] economy is about to experience a huge hit because of Iran. Why is she threatening
[124:09] us? Why has she got to be so aggressive? Write that down. So we have
[124:12] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:14] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:16] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:19] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:21] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:24] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:26] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:29] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:31] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:34] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:36] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:39] Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
[124:41] Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, global economy is about to
[124:47] experience a huge hit because of Iran. Only
[124:53] Trump can achieve peace. Only Trump can achieve
[124:58] peace. And we'll see about that. These headlines
[125:04] are literally just coming out seconds ago here.
[125:09] White House will not implement a crude export
[125:15] ban. Okay. Ready to reach out to partners
[125:21] to reach objectives, says Takai Chi. Okay. Okay.
[125:27] let me see what other updates come out in just a moment you know the
[125:33] high high quality office assets multi-family and of course data centers which everybody loves meantime
[125:38] diana if the rate backdrop remains tough and with the you know 10 year at
[125:44] 4-3 it looks like it's incrementally getting tougher do you think the uh pressure on
[125:50] institutional real estate ownership persists out of the administration It does. It does. But when
[125:55] I talked to all these experts on expect someone from Stanger, I asked him that
[125:59] very question. I said, you know, we thought rates would be lower than they were
[126:03] now. And he said it will still happen. It will just happen more slowly and
[126:07] more measured and again, go into those safer real estate assets rather than the more
[126:11] risky ones. But they do still believe that as you know, money comes out of
[126:15] private credit, it's got to go somewhere, right? And the idea is that this is
[126:19] a US AI infrastructure story or does it go beyond our borders? Oh, absolutely. I
[126:24] mean, I don't have numbers on that specifically because we have those U.S. numbers, but
[126:28] the money could go into real estate overseas. A lot of these major real estate
[126:32] companies are, of course, global. So when you look at data centers like digital realty
[126:35] or something like that, that's a publicly traded REIT, but they're all over the world.
[126:39] So people are going to put their money where they think the best real estate
[126:43] assets are. And that may be in the U.S. or it may be overseas. Finally,
[126:47] Diana, on new homes, I know you brought us the number earlier this morning, but
[126:52] can you put into some perspective that month-on-month drop? Is that the worst in a
[126:56] decade? It was the drop put it at the slowest pace since 2022. And Carl,
[127:01] I had to look at that number twice when it first came out because I
[127:05] couldn't believe the drop over 17%. A lot of folks are blaming it on the
[127:09] weather, which we tend to do. And I will not deny it was a pretty
[127:12] rough January in much of the country. But sales were also down very significantly in
[127:16] the West. where you don't see that weather impact. And so it was baffling because
[127:20] it didn't have much to do with mortgage rates. Mortgage rates were actually lower than
[127:24] they are today. They were in the 6 to 6.2% range. So again, it's that
[127:29] uncertainty in the economy. It's those higher prices. And again, we also saw housing starts
[127:33] for single family come down to start the year as well. So we'll see if
[127:37] that bounces back a little bit, but mortgage rates are now higher. So the expectation
[127:41] from everyone I'm talking to really is that it's not going to get much better.
[127:45] Diana, thank you. Quickly, I would just mention, Carl, on the AI industrial conversation, that's
[127:51] one of the areas that has worked so far this year. GE Vernova now up
[127:56] about 30% in 2026. All right. Boring. takaichi let's see here condemns the iran
[128:02] attacks around the region and the closure of the strait we'll discuss economic security in
[128:08] areas like energy and minerals oh there's the talk thank you very much and you're
[128:13] doing a great job again congratulations on the biggest win in the history of japan
[128:19] that's not bad that's a pretty long history that's a a large nation with a
[128:25] law really with a great a great reputation, but it's a tremendous victory.
[128:31] Congratulations to everybody. I'm very proud of you. We've become friends and I'm
[128:37] very proud of the job you've done. It's not easy. Any questions,
[128:42] please? Mr. President, are you fully satisfied with the level
[128:48] of support that you're getting from Japan on Iran, including
[128:54] around the Chinese Uyghurs? SECRETARY KERRY: Well, we're going to
[128:59] be speaking about it today. Go ahead. You can go.
[129:06] We're doing, we're going to be speaking about it today. We've had tremendous support
[129:11] and relationship with Japan on everything. And I believe that based on statements that
[129:17] were given to us yesterday, the day before yesterday, having to do with Japan,
[129:23] they are really stepping up to the plate. Yes.
[129:27] Unlike
[129:34] NATO,
[129:41] Please. Mr. President, do you intend to lift sanctions on Iranian oil? And do you
[129:46] intend to potentially put U.S. troops or more troops in the region? No, I'm not
[129:51] putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you. They're on the way.
[129:56] But I'm not putting troops. And we will do whatever is necessary to keep the
[130:01] price as low. I actually thought when I did this, look, the Dow just hit
[130:06] 50,000 a couple of weeks ago. They said that couldn't happen for four years. It
[130:11] wouldn't happen in my term. It's such an outrageous thing because I said it would
[130:15] happen. I didn't know it was going to happen that fast, but it just hit
[130:19] 50,000. And we did that in one year, not four. S&P had just hit 7,000.
[130:24] They said that was even more impossible than the Dow hitting 50. And we did
[130:30] that in one year. So it's all done. Everything was going great. The economy is
[130:35] great. Oil prices were very low. Gasoline was dropping to, I mean, we had $1.99.
[130:41] Notice how he immediately goes to, oh, the stock market's doing so great. And then
[130:46] I said, Hate to make this excursion, but we're gonna have to do it and
[130:51] I actually thought the numbers would be worse I thought that it would go up
[130:55] more than it did But we're doing this excursion and when it's completed and we're
[130:59] gonna have a much safer world and The Prime Minister agrees with me and then
[131:03] she considers it to be terrible what they're in it I think every country does
[131:07] just about every country does Iran is a serious threat to the world to the
[131:11] Middle East and to the world and And everybody agrees with me. I think virtually
[131:17] every country agrees with me on that. So I wanted to put out that
[131:22] fire. And I said, you know, if I do that, oil prices will go up,
[131:27] the economy will go down a little bit. I thought it would be worse, much
[131:32] worse, actually. I thought there was a chance it could be much worse. It's not
[131:36] bad. And it's going to be over with pretty soon. We've obliterated the Navy. We've
[131:41] obliterated their just about everything there is to obliterate, including leadership. Their Navy's gone. Their
[131:45] Air Force is gone. Their anti-aircraft equipment is gone. We're flying wherever we want, Pete.
[131:50] We have nobody even shooting at us. Meanwhile, an F-35 just got shot and had
[131:55] to have an emergency landing. Their leadership is gone. Their leaders are gone. They picked
[132:01] new leaders, they're gone. They picked new leaders, they're gone. And now they're looking for
[132:06] new leaders again. We can take out the island. Anytime we want. I call it
[132:12] the little oil island that sits there so totally unprotected. We've taken out everything but
[132:18] the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for
[132:24] them to do. But we are, I would say, we are substantially ahead of schedule.
[132:30] And I had to do this. I call it an excursion. I had to take
[132:35] this little excursion and do something that no other president had the courage to do.
[132:39] And everybody wanted to do it, but they never had the courage to do. And
[132:43] I don't blame them. I'm not blaming them. It was left to me, and we've
[132:48] done a great job. Our military is incredible. We have an incredible military. We have
[132:52] the strongest military in the world by far. We have the greatest equipment in the
[132:57] world by far. In fact, Japan buys our equipment, buys a lot of it, and
[133:02] we're honored by that. And that's one of the things we'll be talking. They want
[133:06] to buy a lot of the military equipment. So it's just an honor to have
[133:11] the prime minister. We've had a tremendous relationship. Okay. Mr. President, Mr. President. I think
[133:16] she's going to have to go first before you. Is that okay? Yeah. Do you
[133:20] understand? Very good. I mean, it's so nice that we don't have to sit. No,
[133:26] it's very good. I haven't picked up your language. The next time you come, I'll
[133:32] have your language mastered. All right, go ahead. The war is almost over. Why is
[133:37] the Pentagon going to ask Congress for an additional $200 billion? Well, we're asking for
[133:43] a lot of reasons beyond even what we're talking about in Iran. This is
[133:49] a very volatile world and the military equipment, the power of some of this weaponry
[133:55] is unthinkable. You don't even want to know about it. Oh, you could end this
[134:01] thing in two seconds if you wanted to. But we are being very judicious. But
[134:07] we want to do, don't forget, Biden gave away, I rebuilt the military my first
[134:13] time. Biden gave away so stupidly to Afghanistan a lot. He didn't want to move
[134:18] it. He was too lazy, too stupid to move it. But it was a very
[134:23] small amount. It was a lot, but it was very small relative to what I
[134:27] purchased and what I built. We want to have a good we want to have
[134:32] vast amounts of ammunition, which we have right now. We have a lot of ammunition,
[134:37] but it was taken down by giving so much to Ukraine. They gave so much.
[134:43] You know, Biden gave three hundred and fifty billion dollars worth of cash and military
[134:48] equipment to Ukraine. And he didn't rebuild anything. Fortunately, we have a lot. We have
[134:53] a tremendous unlimited supply of of what you'd call middle and upper middle supplies. armaments
[134:59] and military equipment, munitions, armaments, but munitions in particular. At the high end, we
[135:04] have a lot, but we're preserving it. We don't really need it, but we're
[135:10] building. Our manufacturers of military equipment are building at a level they've never seen
[135:16] before. They've never done before. Pete's in charge of it with with all of
[135:22] us really, but Pete's been very strong on it. The general and Pete, myself, the
[135:27] whole group. And Raytheon is building four factories. Lockheed is building five or six factories.
[135:33] And they're building them fast, because we had a very tough meeting with them. They
[135:38] were going out and buying back stock for $51 billion in one case. They spent
[135:44] $51 billion buying back stock. Now they're not allowed to do that. And they are
[135:49] now building a tremendous... There's never been anything like it, what's taking place right now.
[135:54] So we're in very good shape, but we want to be in the best shape,
[135:59] the best shape we've ever been in. We were that, you know, when I rebuilt
[136:03] the military, we were in great shape, and then Biden blew it. And he didn't
[136:08] do anything. He didn't build... He didn't do anything. And if you listen to the
[136:12] Democrats, they don't even want to have a military. Now you see how important it
[136:17] is. But we have... the strongest military in the world. We have the best equipment.
[136:22] We make by far the best equipment. The other night, they had 114 rockets shot
[136:27] at a certain location. And out of 100 highly sophisticated rockets, out of 114 sophisticated
[136:32] rockets, every single one of them was shot down with our equipment, all our equipment.
[136:37] It's amazing, actually, how good it is. So we want to be sure. And it's
[136:42] a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top. The Press:
[136:47] Mr. President, the Treasury Secretary this morning said there were defections among Iranian leadership. Are
[136:53] you aware of that? And is there anybody in the U.S. to work with as
[136:58] a leader going forward? The President: Well, we have a man named the Treasury Secretary
[137:03] here, so maybe he wants to discuss it. Does anybody know -- do you know
[137:08] who he is? Central casting. Yeah, so we are seeing the defections at all levels
[137:13] as they're starting to sense what's going on with the regime. It doesn't get reported
[137:18] here in the U.S. very well, but we are transferring them from the air, and
[137:23] the regime will probably collapse within itself at Treasury. We've seen where they've wired their
[137:28] money out of the country. We're coming for that. We're going to get it back
[137:33] to the Iranian people. You've seen defections? There's a lot of military defections also. You
[137:38] have a lot of military defections in Iran. I don't blame them. Thank you, Mr.
[137:43] President. You talked to Prime Minister Netanyahu about attacking the oil and gas fields. Yeah,
[137:48] I did. I did. I told him, don't do that. And he won't do that.
[137:53] We didn't discuss. You know, we do... We're independent, we get along great, it's coordinated,
[137:58] but on occasion he'll do something and if I don't like it, so we're not
[138:03] doing that anymore. And the last one, if I could, the Fed chairman told me
[138:08] yesterday that he plans to stay until a new Fed chairman is confirmed and he
[138:13] also plans to stay on the board until the investigation on the federal term is
[138:17] done. Well, he's under investigation because he's building a building for hundreds of billions of
[138:22] dollars more than it's supposed to cost. The building you see over there is under
[138:26] budget and ahead of schedule. That's the ballroom. The ballroom is a much bigger building.
[138:31] It's a much more complex building than what he's doing, and it's at a fraction
[138:36] of the cost. something is going on whether it's contractors that's what i do best
[138:41] in the world i build i build great buildings i've always done it and i
[138:46] build them under budget and ahead of schedule they could have four billion this is
[138:50] a renovation job for four billion dollars and if you look at the building it's
[138:55] not even i don't know if kevin warsh is ever going to be able to
[139:00] move into it it's been under construction for years it's the most expensive building ever
[139:05] built Now, I know it's gross incompetent because I happen to think he's grossly incompetent.
[139:10] Today, certainly you should be lowering interest rates. All right. Certainly, who would not lower
[139:15] them? But he's... Stubborn and he's got Trump derangement syndrome, but a lot of people
[139:21] have that you know, it's not a curable disease but But he's also building he
[139:26] should be lowering rates immediately But he won't do that because he's he's a stubborn
[139:31] incompetent person and that's a bad thing You know when you're stubborn and incompetent, I
[139:37] think it's the worst combination and he's also not a smart person but He's building
[139:42] a complex over there that's under his jurisdiction. He started it and it's
[139:48] out of control. It's billions of dollars for a little building. I could
[139:54] have done that building and made it beautiful for $25 million. $25 million
[139:59] and it would have been beautiful. Look what I've done at the
[140:05] White House, fixing it up. And I mean, the place was in bad
[140:11] shape. You see the floors and everything. It was in bad shape. I
[140:16] could have I could have made that building beautiful for $25 million. They're
[140:22] spending $4 billion. All right. So it's there is criminality. Maybe it's with
[140:27] the contractor. But because I know more about contractors than any human being, maybe that's
[140:33] ever lived. But that contractor is a very rich man. Whoever the contractor is that
[140:38] we know, but whoever the contractor is, is an extremely rich man. He's going to
[140:43] make. I mean, it could make millions of dollars. I don't I'm hearing
[140:49] numbers from three to four billion dollars. That would make it the most expensive building
[140:54] on a square foot basis ever built in history. And you're not even building a
[141:00] building. It's a renovation. The exterior skin is staying. The steel is staying. The structure.
[141:06] So. All I want to do is bring out to the public that
[141:12] this guy is incompetent. He's a very incompetent guy. And he may be a dishonest
[141:18] guy, but somebody's dishonest because there's no way that building can be three to four
[141:24] billion dollars. Thank you. Mr. President, you just mentioned Japan. This looks like one of
[141:30] your people right here. Thank you. Is he good or bad? Is he a
[141:36] good reporter or bad? Nice to know. So-so. All right. Looks like a
[141:41] nice guy. Go ahead. Mr. President, you just mentioned Japan is stepping up.
[141:47] What kind of support do you expect from Japan in the future? Look,
[141:52] I expect Japan to step up because, you know, we have that kind
[141:58] of relationship and we step up with Japan. 45,000 soldiers in Japan. We have
[142:04] we spent a lot of money on Japan. So and we've had that kind of
[142:08] a relationship. So I expect I'm not surprised that they would step up. We don't
[142:13] need much. We don't need anything. I mean, honestly, we don't need anything from Japan
[142:18] or from anyone else. But I think it's appropriate that people step up in the
[142:22] case of Japan. I hear they get more than 90 percent of their oil through
[142:27] the straight line. So that's a big reason to step up. I mean, we've demolished.
[142:33] That country is supposed to demolish. The only thing is the strait. It's very hard.
[142:38] You could take two people and they could drop little bombs in the water and
[142:44] they're holding things up. We don't want that to happen. But honestly, Japan, China, Europe,
[142:50] parts of Europe get a lot of their oil through the strait. We get none,
[142:55] practically. We're less than 1%. We don't have to be any percent. We don't even
[143:01] I think we do it just to be nice. But we think of it. We
[143:06] don't use the Strait. We're defending the Strait for everybody else. And then in the
[143:11] case of NATO, they don't want to help us defend the Strait. And they're the
[143:16] ones that need it. But now they're getting much nicer because they're seeing my attitude.
[143:21] They're getting much nicer. But it's as far as I'm concerned, it's too late. You
[143:26] know, UK wants to send aircraft carriers now. That
[143:32] was through
[143:36] the 8th
[143:41] of March.
[143:46] That's now
[143:50] risen.
[143:52] Wrong.
[143:57] Dated
[144:01] info. If you can't make
[144:07] more of it in the future, then you have a limited supply. And so we're
[144:12] going after all of their defense contractors that make all of their exquisite weapons and
[144:16] ensuring that even if they wanted to rebuild more launchers or more missiles, they couldn't
[144:21] in the future. And that's a level of devastation for their military that they've never
[144:26] seen before. So we have in literally two weeks, we've demolished their Navy, their Air
[144:31] Force. All technology is gone. All communication is gone. And all of the leaders are
[144:37] gone. Other than that, they're doing quite well. Okay, how about one more question
[144:42] for the Prime Minister? Let me pick a beautiful looking person from, a beautiful
[144:48] person from Japan, a question for the Prime Minister. Go ahead. Me? Yeah. Oh,
[144:54] he doesn't believe he's beautiful. He's just, he's out in shock. Of course, no,
[144:59] Japan and the U.S. are a very good friend, but One question, why didn't
[145:05] you tell US allies in Europe and Asia, like Japan, about the war before attacking
[145:11] Iran? So we are very confused about Japanese citizens. Well, one thing you don't want
[145:17] to signal too much. When we go in, we went in very hard and we
[145:23] didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted Surprise? Who knows better about surprise
[145:29] than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor? Okay? Right? He said,
[145:35] Eskimi, do you believe in surprise? I think much more so than us. And
[145:41] we had a surprise, and we did. And because of that surprise, we knocked
[145:46] out, the first two days, we probably knocked out 50% of what we expected.
[145:53] and much more than we anticipated doing so if i go and tell everybody about
[145:58] it there's no longer a surprise right okay one one more one more one more
[146:04] for the prime minister are you gonna for the prime minister yes thank you very
[146:10] much uh japan's tj press uh japan's biggest concern is china now they're giving
[146:16] us uh uh export control and uh you know very harsh uh terms to criticize
[146:22] us so uh that's the president alongside the japanese prime minister in the oval office
[146:27] as you can clearly see uh giving an update uh on the war uh which
[146:33] let's see if doomers have the rest of it although it does sound like it's
[146:39] ending certainly is china uh now they're giving us uh export control and
[146:45] very harsh terms to criticize us. So could you
[146:50] plan, would you really plan to bring out relationship
[146:56] between Japan and China while you're there in Japan?
[147:01] - Yeah, well I'll be going to China very
[147:06] quickly. But I think I'd really like to have the prime minister talk
[147:12] about China because I know they have a little bit of an edgy
[147:18] relationship, and I'd just like to know where it stands, how you're doing
[147:24] with China. So, please.
[147:26] Japan
[147:30] is
[147:34] always
[147:38] open. So first
[147:44] of all, Japan has been consistently open to dialogue with China. And
[147:50] also, second, we have been addressing our relations with China in a
[147:56] calm manner. And also speaking of the U.S.-China relationship, my sincere hope
[148:02] is that the relationship will be something conducive for regional security and
[148:08] also ensuring the global supply chain in the world. Once again, I
[148:14] would like to reiterate that Japan has been consistently open to dialogue with China.
[148:20] And I think we're going to have a great trip. The trip has been
[148:25] postponed for about a month and a half. It's been reset and we look
[148:31] forward to it. And I'll be speaking Japan's praises when I'm in China with
[148:37] President Xi. But we're going to have some good talks today. And I think mostly
[148:42] about trade, because they want to do a lot of trade. They're a tremendous purchaser
[148:48] of our energy, our oil, gas, from, in particular, Alaska. Because Alaska, believe it or
[148:53] not, is very close. It's much closer than any other source. It seems a
[148:59] little cold compared to... but it's just a short trip. So that's something that
[149:05] we will talk about after the first four of these. We'll be discussing trade
[149:11] and a lot of the talk will be about energy. Thank you very much
[149:17] everybody. Alrighty. That ended just at the same time as my tea is ready.
[149:23] Well, I boiled it up again. Another update that came out
[149:29] at the same time is that the European Central Bank suggests
[149:34] that they may need to start discussing rate hikes. They would
[149:40] potentially start discussing rate hikes in April for action as soon
[149:46] as June. That would be the likely time for rate hikes
[149:51] should this war continue. Not great. So, you know... Two days
[149:57] ago I made a video saying prepare for raid hikes and I made it clear
[150:03] that I didn't think that raid hikes were coming yesterday. You can do that. But
[150:09] that they could signal raid hikes are coming because of the war and now both
[150:15] Powell and the ECB have done exactly that. Alright. And it's funny too because I
[150:21] look back at some of the comments and people are like they're not going to
[150:27] mention raid hikes. No way bro. Both of them did. Okay what else?
[150:33] Bank score, yeah we saw that, we saw
[150:38] that. What else? Debate over minimum wage is
[150:44] not settled, millions of Americans, okay we saw
[150:50] that. Alright, let's go look at zero, what's
[150:55] this? This? What do we got here? Tesla
[151:01] faces expanded US probe over self-driving performance in
[151:07] poor weather. Federal regulators are sharpening their focus on Tesla's
[151:12] automated driving assistance system, raising concerns about the technology's ability to handle
[151:18] poor roadway conditions. NHTSA said Thursday it was escalating the probe of
[151:24] the system. NHTSA has identified several crashes, including one fatal where FSD
[151:29] failed to alert drivers appropriately about reduced visibility, such as sun glare,
[151:35] fog, or airborne dust. The probe originally began in 2024. Nitsa
[151:41] said it was escalating the investigation to an engineering analysis, a more
[151:47] involved examination of a potential safety defect that could result in a
[151:53] recall campaign or enforcement. Tesla didn't immediately respond to a request for
[151:59] comment. Duh. The probe represents the latest efforts by Nitsa to examine FSD. It comes
[152:05] one month before Tesla is expected to launch production of a robotaxi cybercab without traditional
[152:10] controls like a steering wheel. The vehicle is designed to be driven by the FSD
[152:15] system, essentially. Tesla said the cybercab would be an autonomous taxi sold to the general
[152:21] public. Nitsa spent years examining this technology, the agency also scrutinizing similar systems from competitors.
[152:28] particularly focused on the company's unique design of fst which relies on the
[152:34] vision-based setup versus the others right in a filing thursday nizza said the
[152:40] incident data the agency reviewed raises concerns about the degradation of detection systems
[152:46] both as originally deployed and later updated fails to detect poor visibility condition
[152:52] conditions and warn the driver didn't Wow.
[152:56] Okay. Do... Do
[153:01] they link the
[153:07] actual NHTSA piece?
[153:12] Let me see.
[153:17] The probe. That's
[153:22] not gonna be
[153:28] it. That's not
[153:33] it. No. Okay.
[153:39] NHTSA. Let's see. NHTSA... FSD
[153:44] Investigation Test Law. Can somebody
[153:50] just link the actual NHTSA
[153:56] piece? Let's see here. Oh,
[154:02] here's somebody, uh... There's a
[154:08] whole screen here. Okay. Open...
[154:13] Create PDF. Okay. Uh, the
[154:19] Office of D-Facts. Yeah, run.
[154:25] Run text recognition. OCR, baby.
[154:31] Alright, did we do it? Yeah, we did. Okay. Office
[154:37] of Defects is opening an engineering analysis to evaluate FSD.
[154:43] Degradation. Okay. ODI will evaluate the performance of FSD in
[154:49] degraded roadway conditions and the updates or modifications by Tesla
[154:55] and assess their impact. Okay.
[155:01] Let's see here. "TESLA also described internal data labeling limitations that prevented
[155:07] uniform identification and analysis of crash events with the subject system engaged.
[155:13] ODI believes this limitation could have led to underreporting of subject crashes."
[155:19] So in other words, there could be more crashes. "TESLA also described
[155:25] an internal data and labeling limit that prevented uniform identification ODI
[155:31] discusses individual incidents. As part of those discussions, Tesla's
[155:36] post-incident analysis indicated that the update to the degradation
[155:42] detection system had been installed in vehicles at the
[155:47] time and may have affected three of the nine
[155:53] incidents. Okay. Available incident data. Let's see here. Okay,
[155:58] that's nothing. Yeah, okay, now Iran is indeed claiming that they
[156:04] attacked and damaged a US F-35. That's the one that we heard reports
[156:10] of being shot at. Oh, the F-35, that's the first time Iran has
[156:15] hit one of our F-35s. Available incident data raises concerns that Tesla's degradation
[156:21] detection system fails to detect or warn under degraded visibility conditions, such as
[156:27] glare or airborne obscurance. That's like the dust or whatever.
[156:36] Lost track or never detected a lead vehicle. Okay,
[156:42] so kind of step it like the worst case
[156:47] scenario here, in my opinion, I mean, likely outcome,
[156:53] likely outcome would be some recommendations for improvement. So
[156:59] I really don't think this is a big, you
[157:05] know, big issue. Probably not a big deal. Worst
[157:11] case would be some form of recall. You
[157:17] know, because a lot of people paid for FSD, obviously.
[157:23] Okay, what do we got over here? Zero Hedge, F-35
[157:29] damaged by Iranian fire, Israeli refinery targeted. We already went
[157:34] through so many things. Mm-hmm. Baba shares crashed the most
[157:40] in six months. Oh, wait, what's Baba doing? Ali Baba.
[157:46] Oh, wow. Baba's almost going full circle back down to
[157:52] 118 level. I remember the breakout of that. That was
[157:58] crazy. And then what's happening
[158:04] with Micron? Let's see here how their performance is the rest of the day. Ah,
[158:10] down 5%. I mean, there was a tippy top over here. 5% is like nothing.
[158:15] Gold's crowded trade set to unwind. Well, that alert is two months late. Trump eyes
[158:21] boots on the ground along her moves. Where did they get this? Is it this
[158:27] from the Wall Street Journal that we read? Several reports this weekend to Thursday say
[158:33] the Trump administration is quietly weighing a major escalation. Right. This is,
[158:39] interestingly, the Reuters report doesn't include the phrase that Trump
[158:45] campaigned against, boots on the ground. Instead, the report simply
[158:51] uses US ways military reinforcements, right? The buildup would give
[158:56] Trump additional options. Wow. That's an interesting view of the
[159:02] Strait.
[159:09] The US is running up against the obvious limits of purely air
[159:14] and naval campaign discussions about deploying troops directly on the coastline. Even
[159:20] more aggressive is potentially taking Kharg, handles 90% of Iran's oil exports.
[159:26] And then, of course, taking the enriched uranium, which some call a
[159:32] suicide mission.
[159:38] That's not good.
[159:44] Right, you launch
[159:50] an RPG and
[159:56] then dip out.
[160:02] Yeah, the $200
[160:07] billion doesn't help.
[160:16] Somebody, uh, J. Cole in the chat says, man, everyone has lost their marbles.
[160:22] Next recession is going to flush people so hard. That's why you don't want
[160:28] a recession to happen. I don't think a lot of people are going to
[160:34] be shocked with, uh, you know, if there's a recession, how bad it could
[160:39] really get. Uh, let's see here. Two decades in Iraq. Russia spent four years
[160:45] on its military operation in Ukraine. And Iran dwarfs the size, uh, dwarfs Ukraine
[160:51] in size. I wonder how much bigger... How much
[160:57] larger is Iran than Ukraine? Wow.
[161:02] Ukraine is about one third the
[161:08] size. Okay. Yeah. Not great. Not
[161:13] great. Oh, no. Okay. What else
[161:19] have we here? No higher, no
[161:24] fire. Fuel shocks are an even
[161:30] bigger threat to risk assets than
[161:36] crude. It's all an issue. "US
[161:41] naval escort won't 100% guarantee tanker safety." Who says this?
[161:47] Let's go take a look at this. So, told the
[161:53] Financial Times in an interview... Okay, let's go look at
[161:59] that. "Naval escorts would not guarantee safety." This was from
[162:05] three days ago. "The head of the International Maritime Organization
[162:11] has said that naval escort will not guarantee 100% safety."
[162:17] "The safety of the ships attempting to transit the critical
[162:23] waterway." Reduces the
[162:29] risk, but the risk is still there. Okay here.
[162:34] The depth of the water for shipping lanes in
[162:40] each direction is just two nautical miles. The strait
[162:45] is bounded by the mountains, which favors the aggressor,
[162:51] who could strike ships from up high with little
[162:56] notice. Ah, that's true. You're basically shooting fish in
[163:02] a barrel, right? That's very interesting. I wonder if
[163:07] we get like a 3D view of it from
[163:13] Google Maps. Let's try that. Iran... And let's
[163:19] go 3D. It doesn't really give us a great 3D. Well,
[163:25] this gives us a little bit of a look of some
[163:31] of these lower areas. These are all pretty mountainous over here.
[163:36] That island's pretty rocky. What do we get on the other
[163:42] side? Here is Lark, and then this is Harmoose Island. On
[163:48] this edge, it's less rocky, but you have... Yeah, this is
[163:54] pretty flat over here too. How about this cliff over here?
[164:00] Is this a cliff? Less so. See, this
[164:06] is pretty flat over here on this right side. So
[164:11] really the... And this is not Iran over here. What
[164:17] is this part? This is Oman. Oh, that just sort
[164:23] of connects past the UAE here. For some reason, Oman
[164:29] is split by the UAE. That's interesting. I know Oman's
[164:35] here, but that this little edge here... Okay, okay.
[164:40] I mean, I guess this is pretty mountainous. So you don't necessarily have to
[164:46] be right on the beach, right? You could probably launch a rocket from any
[164:52] of these mountains. What a mess. And look at all these little roadways. They
[164:58] could all go into these little caves, you know? All these little dirt roads.
[165:04] You go into little cave hideouts where you just hide a bunch of weapons.
[165:10] Way too corgu. Okay. Any photos on the ground? See, that's what we need.
[165:16] We need to be able to see little photos on the ground. Oh, they
[165:22] actually mapped this road over here. Wow.
[165:27] Looks pretty barren. It's like the barrens in World of
[165:33] Warcraft. Alright. How are we doing? Uh, let's see here.
[165:39] We are... Where are the Qs? The Qs, the Qs,
[165:45] the Qs. Ah! Still struggling. CNBCs. We've got our oil
[165:51] sitting at 110. That's lower than the 113 we had
[165:57] this morning. Still at 4.26 here, which is also good.
[166:03] Trump signals DOJ should continue Powell probe. Well...
[166:12] Let's take a look at these. Actually, I don't know if
[166:17] I'm signing for that. Let me try to sign it. What
[166:23] is this one? Trump! He's under investigation for, because of the
[166:28] building. Let's see. Not made a decision on Powell yet. Oh,
[166:34] that's what, that was Powell's. Yeah, but where does it say,
[166:40] where did Trump say that he wants to continue it? Should
[166:45] continue the Powell probe. Eh, that's not useful. Alright, well, take
[166:51] a little break. Thanks for being here. Hope you enjoyed the
[166:56] stream. See you in the next one. Goodbye. Good luck.