---
title: 'THIS is the Most Profitable Parlay Betting Strategy!'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=fxF48qjJV6c'
video_id: 'fxF48qjJV6c'
date: 2026-09-19
duration_sec: 922
channel: 'OddsJam: Sports Betting, Free Picks & Best Bets'
---

# THIS is the Most Profitable Parlay Betting Strategy!

> Source: [THIS is the Most Profitable Parlay Betting Strategy!](https://youtube.com/watch?v=fxF48qjJV6c)

## Summary

This video breaks down the mathematics behind sports betting parlays, explaining how sportsbooks calculate parlay odds and whether it's possible to make money betting on parlays long-term. The creator, who claims to have made $75,000 per year betting parlays in 2022 and 2023, argues that parlays can be profitable if you have an edge, but emphasizes the compounding risk of the vig for bettors without an advantage.

### Key Points

- **Parlay Odds Are Not Random** [00:17] — Sportsbooks convert each leg's odds into an implied probability, multiply them together, and convert the result back into American odds. For example, two legs at -110 odds result in a parlay at +264 odds.
- **Every Odd Has an Associated Probability** [03:36] — -200 odds imply a 66.7% win probability, -300 implies 75%, and -110 implies 52.4%. The sportsbook uses these probabilities to calculate parlay odds.
- **The Risk of Parlays: Compounding Juice** [06:01] — If you have no edge, a two-leg parlay at -110 odds has a 25% win probability (50% x 50%), but pays +264. This results in a negative ROI of -9% for two-leg parlays and -13% for three-leg parlays, as the vig compounds with each leg.
- **How to Make Money Betting Parlays** [08:44] — The key is to have an edge on each individual leg. If you win above the implied win probability for each leg, the parlay becomes profitable. For example, if you win 70% of bets at -200 odds, a two-leg parlay hits 49% of the time, which is above the 44.4% break-even point for +125 odds.
- **Parlays vs. Straight Bets: Same Math, More Variance** [13:39] — If a bet is profitable as a straight bet, it's also profitable in a parlay. The only difference is increased variance due to the requirement that all legs win. The creator uses line shopping to find edges, comparing FanDuel's -110 odds to other books like BetMGM's -145 to identify value.

### Conclusion

Parlays can be profitable if you have an edge on each leg, but they are riskier due to compounding vig and higher variance. The key is to focus on finding profitable straight bets and then combining them in parlays, rather than treating parlays as a separate strategy.

## Transcript

Hey, what's up YouTube? This video, a little controversial, but we are going to be talking about parlay. The truth behind parlay, I'm not going to lie to you, this video is a little bit mathematical, but basically I'm going to be breaking down how do parlays work, how do sportsbooks make
their odds, and how, if you even can, can you make money betting on parlays long term? So, it's common advice if you look online that you shouldn't be betting on parlays. A lot of people
say this is the worst type of bet. And honestly, it's not horrible advice for new sports bettors. It's harder to make money betting on parlays compared to straight bets, but you absolutely
can make money betting on parlays. And I'm going to break it all down to you in this video. So in 2022 and 2023, I made roughly $75,000 each year betting on parlays. So this verified bet tracker
that I use is called Pick It, and basically it's a free app. You sync your sportsbooks, it reads in all your bets, and then shows you your profit and loss with a bunch of different analytics. So you absolutely can make money betting on parlays, which is what I'm going
to break down for you in this video. But one question people have is, why do you play straight bets versus parlays? And honestly, we'll get into that a bit deeper in the video, but there's some new gambling platforms, for example, Better, which is Jake Paul's new app, that only let you
bet on parlays. So if you look on Better, if you just try to play one bet as a straight bet, they don't let you do it. You have to place parlays on certain gambling platforms now, at least in the United States. So long story short, because a lot of these platforms only
allow parlay betting, I bet on a lot of parlays. But anyways, let's get into it. So first things first, if you enjoy this type of content, please like the video and subscribe to the channel so I know I'm doing more than just hearing myself talk.
Also, I love this stuff, the math behind sports betting. So if you have any questions, please feel free to drop them in the comments. I'll be happy to answer. But anyways, let's get into it. So what is a parlay? All a parlay is is a combination of wagers, at least two wagers.
And you need all of your individual wagers to win to cash your parlay. to win your parlay. So for example, just a little example, here's a two-leg parlay on FanDuel. I have
the over 125 half in Rutgers, Maryland, and the over 141 half in Georgetown versus Providence. So I need both bets to win to win my parlay, which has a better payout than if I play these
as straight bets. So the first thing I want to mention is sportsbooks don't just randomly make up parlay odds. That's not how it works. You can see both of these legs on FanDuel, both of the
individual bets are at minus 110 odds, and the parlay comes out to plus 264. So any parlay you create on any sportsbook, any two-leg parlay where both legs are minus 110, your parlay is going to
come out to being plus 264 odds. It doesn't matter what the two wagers are, what sport, overs, or under, it doesn't matter at all. If both legs are minus 110, the par rate comes out to being plus
264. So the first question, and this is where it gets a little bit mathematical, is how does the sportsbook come up with plus 264? And the first thing you need to realize is every odd has an associated probability. So what I mean by that is a minus 200 favorite minus 200 odds
means a 2-1 betting favorite or two-thirds to win 66.7%. A plus 200 underdog means a 2 underdog one to win 33 Minus 300 3 betting favorite 75 to win So every odd has an associated probability So minus 110 favorite implies a 52 win probability So what the
sportsbook does is it takes each of the individual legs, converts the odd into a probability. So for both of these, it's going to be 52.4% if both of the legs are minus 110. Then the sportsbook
multiplies those probabilities together, and then you get 27.45%, and then it takes that probability and converts it back into odds. So 27.45% implies plus 264 odds. So the sportsbook gives you plus
264 odds on your two-leg parlay. So let's go through another simple example, because I think it's really important to understand how do books come up with these parlay odds. So here you can So you have a two-leg parlay, super random parlay, soccer plus college basketball.
And one of the legs is minus 300. Clemson money line. So that means there are three to one betting favorites, 75% to win. The soccer bet is minus 200, a two to one betting favorite, 66.7% to win.
So you multiply those numbers together, three-fourths, 75% times two-thirds, and you get 50%. percent. So the combined probability for the parlay, according to the sportsbook, is 50 percent.
50 percent implies plus 100 odds, right? A one-to-one betting favorite, plus 100 odds. So all the sportsbook is doing is converting the odds on each leg in the parlay into a probability,
multiplying them all together to get a final win probability for the parlay, and then converting that back into American odds, and that's what they're showing you. So any parlay you look at on any sportsbook where one leg is minus 200, one leg's minus 300, you're going to be getting
plus 100 odds. So now let's get into kind of the profitability of parlays and why they're very risky, and you can lose a lot of money if you're a new sports bettor betting on parlays. So again, any two-pick parlay where both legs are minus 110, your parlay is going to come out to being
plus 264 odds. And also, if you look at the spreads and totals on most sportsbooks, they have minus 110 odds or minus 110 juice on both the over and the under. So let's just say, for the sake of example,
we're looking at both of these games. We're going to select an over-under for both games and have a parlay that comes out to being plus 264. Both the overs and the unders are minus 110 odds. So if you have no edge or advantage, you picking over-unders in these college basketball games, if you don't
have an edge, you don't have an advantage, it's like flipping a coin, right? You're going to be 50% to win, 50% to lose. If we're picking NC State Syracuse and we have no opinion on the game,
we're going to be 50% to get it right, 50% to get our pick wrong. And that means if our probability of winning each pick is 50%, the probability of us winning our parlay is 25%, 50% times 50%.
And this is really the risk of parlays, is if you don't have an advantage, we're betting 100 to win 264, but we're only winning 25% of our two-pick parlays if we don't have an edge or an advantage.
So we're winning one out of four parlays. So you can kind of see what I mean by that, is let's imagine our unit size is $100, we place four parlays, and we have no edge, no advantage, so we're going to win one parlay and we're going to lose three.
So we're down $300 if our unit size is $100 on the three losing parlays and on the winning parlay we go up but we still down after bet which means our ROI is negative 9 and that really the risk of parlays is if you don have an edge or you don have an advantage the juice in parlays compounds
So to give you another example, if you place a three-pick parlay, your parlay comes out to plus 595 odds. If each leg is minus 110, again, if you assume you're flipping a coin,
you're 50% to win or lose, you have no advantage, you can go through the math and see that your ROI would be negative 13% betting on three-life parlays. So basically, the risk of betting on parlays is if you don't have an edge or you don't have an advantage,
they are going to become exponentially worse. They're going to become progressively worse. Your ROI is going to get worse if you don't have an advantage because the juice compounds on the sportsbooks.
So we just went through how unprofitable parlays can be. If you don't have an edge, you don't have an advantage. the VIG just keeps compounding, so your ROI is just going to keep getting worse with every leg you add to your parlay. But let's turn this ship around and let's talk about how can you make money
betting on parlays. And to understand that, you first need to understand how can you make money betting on straight bets. So let's just say, for the sake of example, all of your bets you're placing are at minus 200 odds. So we explained earlier in this video, minus 200 means a two-thirds
betting favorite, a two-thirds implied win probability, 66.7%. So what that means when you're betting at minus 200 is you need to win above two-thirds of your bets, 66.7%,
to make money long term. So let's say, for example, your unit size is $100 and you place 300 bets at minus 200 odds. So if you win less than two-thirds of your bets, less than 200,
you're going to lose money. So let's say you win 175 bets out of 300, betting at minus 200 odds, you're going to lose 3,750 bucks. If you win exactly 200 bets,
two-thirds of your bets, you're going to break even. And then if you win above two-thirds of your bets, let's say 225, you're going to make a profit, 3,750 in that case. So everything boils down to odds to win probability.
If you're betting at plus 200, on the other hand, you're betting on underdogs plus 200, you only need to win above one-third of your bets to be profitable, right? So if you're winning 33.3% of your bets, you'll break even.
And if you're winning, let's say, 36, 40% of your bets at plus 200 odds, you're going to be profitable long-term. So everything boils down to win probability. So all of sports betting boils down to odds and win probability.
If you're betting at minus 200, which is a 2-to-1 betting favorite, two-thirds, to win 66.7% implied win probability, you have to win above 66.7% of your wagers to be profitable.
Betting at minus 300, a 3-to-1 betting favorite, 75% implied win probability, you have to win above 75% of your wagers to be profitable. So how does it work for parlays? So let's imagine we make a two-leg parlay where each of our legs is minus 200.
Your parlay, it doesn't matter the sportsbook what the individual bets are. If both legs are minus 200, that parlay is going to come out to being plus 125 odds. Again, all the sportsbook is doing is converting those odds into probabilities, multiplying them together, which gets you to 44.4%, and then converting that back into an odd.
So once you have your parlay odds, plus 125, it doesn't matter if it's a parlay or a straight bet. When you're betting at plus 125 odds, all you have to do to be profitable whether you betting on a parlay or a straight bet at plus 125 is win your wagers above 44 of the time So if you can win your bets at plus 125 odds whether it a straight
bet or a parlay, let's say 50% of the time, you are going to be profitable. If it's only 40%, that's below 44.4%, you are not going to be profitable. So long story short, just imagine
if you're winning each of the bets in your parlay at minus 200 odds above two-thirds of the time, then you're going to be winning your parlay above 44.4% of the time. So, for example, let's say both of the bets in our parlay were winning 70% of the time.
If we're placing them at straight bets at minus 200 odds, we know we're going to be profitable. The implied win probability is 66.7%. We're winning 70% of the time. We're going to be profitable. But if we're winning both of our wagers 70% of the time, we're going to be hitting our par light 49% of the time, 70% times 70%.
And that's above 44.4%, so we're going to be profitable betting on two light parlays where both lights are minus 200 if we're winning each of our bets in our par light above 66.7% of the time.
So a lot of math, but that's how parlays work. Long story short, if a bet is profitable, if you like it, it would be profitable in a parlay or a straight bet. It doesn't matter. Whenever you're placing a bet, whether it's in a parlay or as a straight,
all you're looking for is you want your bet to be winning above the implied win probability. So when we're placing a bet at minus 200, whether it's as a straight bet, in a round robin, or in a parlay, the bet is going to be profitable if it's winning above two-thirds of the time.
So long story short, if you want to learn how to make money betting on parlays, there's no magic. You just have to learn how to make money betting on straight bets. If we're placing bets at minus 110, minus 110 means a 52.4% implied win probability,
and we're winning our wagers above 52.4% of the time, let's say 55% of the time, then we're going to be profitable whether we're including those wagers in parlays, in round robins, or as straight bets.
The math holds. If you're a profitable sports bettor on straights, you'd also be profitable if you paired your straights together in a parlay. The only difference with parlay betting is you're going to have a bit more ups and downs.
There's going to be more variance. For a parlay to win, you need all of your wagers to win, so parlays inherently are going to have more variance. You're going to have more ups and downs in your profit and loss. So I'll give you an example of a play that I ended up parlaying on FanDuel, and it's Grant over 3.5 rebounds at minus 110.
So again, why is this bet profitable? Because it's winning above 52.4% of the time. If your wagers at minus 110 are winning above 52.4% of the time, then they're good to go as a straight in a parlay or in a round robin.
So it boils down to why is this play winning above 52.4% of the time? And what you want to do is compare the lines on FanDuel to other sportsbooks. So even though FanDuel has the same juice for the over and the under, minus 110, which is a 52.4% implied win probability,
all the other sportsbooks have Grant as a huge favorite to go over. BetMGM, for example, has Grant as a minus 145 favorite to go over three and a half rebounds.
So all of these other sportsbooks are data points, and they're telling us, hey, Grant's actually a lot more likely to go over, and that's why this play is winning about 52.4% of the time, and it's profitable in a parlay and why I bet on it in the first place.
So I hope you found this video helpful. If you have any questions at all about parlay betting, please drop them in the comments. I'll be happy to answer, and thanks so much for your time.