[00:01] screen, I honestly thought there's no way this can be accurate because in seconds I'd found a way of repeatedly identifying high priced winners with a mathematical advantage over the longer term. I thought if this betting strategy
[00:15] is accurate, this completely changes the game forever because instead of trying to predict future outcomes, I'll simply hit a handful of bets each day. But we're talking about a very big if here because strategies like this always
[00:28] sound amazing until you actually start putting your own money down on them. In this video, I'm going to test it properly. One process, multiple strategies, and a full breakdown of all the gory details. The only question is,
[00:41] did it actually work? So here's the challenge. I'm going to place five horse racing bets using [music] this exact process. Every bet will be to level stakes, no hedging or betting exchanges, and I'll give myself just 10 minutes to
[00:54] find and place all five selections. Along the way, I'll show you exactly how I found them, how the betting strategy works, and why the bookies absolutely hate people doing this. So if that sounds good, smash the like button and
[01:08] settle down. But before we get stuck into the bets, some brief logic behind why this works so that [music] anyone can understand. Bookmakers spend millions building models that guarantee they win. Whereas
[01:20] 95% of sports bettors do the exact opposite. They watch the race, they read a few tips, and they try to predict what they think is going to happen. Looking at my example bet here, this betting strategy flips that whole dynamic and
[01:33] relies on maths. This is what's known as an each way bet. Think of it as two bets. One part backs the horse to win, and the other backs the horse to finish in the places like second, third, fourth, or whatever the race place terms
[01:48] are. Now the bookies are generally very good at pricing the win part of a bet, but they price the places section of of in a very unscientific way. Rather than calculating the true probability of a horse placing, bookies just divide the
[02:02] win price by a fixed fraction. They've done it this way for decades, and thankfully, they're not about to stop. It's a very important detail because these pricing inefficiencies mean that the place part of some each way bets are
[02:14] worth far more than their true chance. And if we chuck in those extra place terms that they offer sometimes, it makes things even more lucrative. You future, this strategy looks for
[02:27] situations where the bookmakers have accidentally handed us a mathematical advantage. According to Outplayed, over 150,000 people have already used this strategy successfully. But popularity doesn't mean profit. So, I wanted to
[02:41] test this for myself. I'll show you exactly how to calculate whether a bet has value shortly, but first, let's see how to actually find these opportunities. The difficult part isn't placing these bets. That's easy. Amongst
[02:56] hundreds of races and thousands of changing prices, is finding where the bookies have made a pricing mistake and offered favorable terms to then exploit. I'm going to use a specialist software tool that does it all for me here. At
[03:09] first glance, it might look a little overwhelming, but really, there's only one number that actually matters on the screen here. It's the expected value percentage. Think of this as an average amount you'd expect to make over the
[03:21] long term if you could place this exact same bet thousands of times. So, for same bet thousands of times. So, for example, if the EV percentage is 120% and we staked 100 pounds, we'd expect to see 20 pound profit on that bet on
[03:36] average. Everything else on this screen is really supporting information. The horse's name, a calculator icon that shows the bet breakdown when I click on it, bookies' odds, break even odds, and fair win prices for both the win and
[03:49] place selection of the bet. Over on the right, the bookie's place terms are listed and which bookies are currently listing this bet. Now, looking at today's list, you can see there were actually far more than five qualifying
[04:01] bets available. These weren't the only opportunities. I simply selected five the sake of this experiment, I've kept the staking even, but an advanced tip is to stake more when the EV percentages is a higher because the expected profit
[04:17] margin is obviously larger. So, for clarity, this list doesn't mean that these bets are more likely to win. Not at all. It simply means that over the long run, the value and identified profit margin is expected to be greater.
[04:31] risk of variance in results, particularly over the short term. You can still lose several value bets in a row, which is why judging this strategy over five bets or even 50 isn't really the point. The long-term value is what
[04:46] matters. Picking up those extra place terms for some of these bookmakers also gives us a very healthy margin, as you can see in the place EV column here. So, process, let's take a look at what actually happened. I'll also reveal a
[05:00] second betting strategy with a bunch of other bets that I placed, too, in just a second because there is a far lower risk way of doing this. So, there are several different ways that these bets can play out. I'll stick with one of my example
[05:13] bets here to explain because every one of these betting selections follows the exact same process. Remember, this is an each-way bet. So, one of the two betting lines backs the horse to win and the other backs it to finish in the
[05:26] specified places. So, there are really only three outcomes that could occur here. Outcome number one is the horse wins. Now, if the horse wins, both parts of the bet are successful, triggering a maximum payout. The win bet pays out at
[05:41] the full odds, and because the horse is also placed, the place bet pays out at a fraction of those win odds too. This is the best possible outcome. Looking at the example, Beaming Light could potentially pay out £120 here. Now,
[05:55] outcome two is that the horse places. Now, imagine the horse doesn't quite win, but still finish inside those available places in that place range. This means that the win part of the bet loses, but the place part wins at a
[06:08] fraction of the win odds. Now, looking down here, the place terms were a fifth of the odds for this race. So, £15 would have been the result. Now, outcome number three is that the horse is actually a donkey, and it doesn't even
[06:21] place at all. So, if the horse doesn't place, both parts of the bet lose, and I'm looking at a maximum loss, £10 on the bet in this case, because there are the bet in this case, because there are two lines at £5 each. However, that's
[06:34] this betting strategy, because it isn't trying to avoid losing bets. It's trying to make sure that over a sample, the winners massively outweigh the losers.
[06:46] this betting strategy, that's designed to smooth out the results and reduce that before we see the horse racing results for my selected bets. With the
[06:58] bets I've already shared, I'm exposed to every possible outcome. If the horse wins or places, then great. But, if it finishes outside of the places, I lose the full stake for both betting lines. However, we can drastically reduce the
[07:11] risk and change this outcome by laying off the win portion of the each-way bet and some of the places on a betting exchange when there are extra place terms. If that sounds confusing, don't worry. I'll explain. For anyone unaware,
[07:25] a lay bet is a type of bet where you can bet against the horse winning. So, instead of risking our stake, we remove nearly all of the potential risk while keeping that valuable part as upside attached to the place part of the bet.
[07:39] Just look at at example. Outplayed calculates all of this for us in full lay mode. If I click on the selections calculator icon, this screen gives the full breakdown of what to do. Step one is as before, we place an each-way bet
[07:54] lay the win portion of the bet on the betting exchange, effectively canceling it out because you're betting against the horse winning. Step three is to lay the place portion on the betting exchange separately because on a betting
[08:09] exchange, you're only betting against the horse finishing in the traditional places, be it first, second, or third. But, the bookie is paying out extra places here. So, the bookie's bet is to place first, second, third, or fourth.
[08:25] This means that if the horse finished exactly fourth, both bets would win. The back bet wins with the bookmaker because the horse placed in the top four, and the lay bet on the place also wins on the betting exchange because the horse
[08:40] did not finish in the top three. The software does all of the numbers for us on the screen here. So, you can see that the stakes and liabilities are listed by line. So, this version of the betting strategy sacrifices some of the
[08:54] potential upside in exchange for much more control. It's obviously slightly more advanced and requires access to a betting exchange, but for anyone uncomfortable with the variance of the original stake, full lay mode brings a
[09:07] lot less variation in results and far lower risk. I've tracked a handful of lower risk. I've tracked a handful of these bets, too. So, now, finally, let's reality. First up was Beaming Light at 20 to 1.
[09:21] Unfortunately, it never really got involved, finished seventh. It was a £10 involved, finished seventh. It was a £10 loss. Next came Sir Grifflet at 18 to 1. threatened, either, finishing 12th, racking up another £10 loss. Third was
[09:35] Evanesco at 12 to 1. Now, this one managed to finish in the places, coming third, returning a £10 profit, and recovering a little of that earlier loss. And then came Sienna Storm at 11:1. Now, this one finished fourth,
[09:50] producing another small £6 profit thanks to the extra place terms. Overall, I was still at a £4 loss though. And then finally came Avian Queen at 15:2, or 8.5
[10:03] in decimal odds. This one got the job done, winning the race and returning £45 profit. The perfect finish to these five and the best possible outcome. Now, looking at the five bets together, you can see exactly why this strategy
[10:16] produces such a mixed set of results. The losses hurt a bit, and those places offer a little extra insurance, but the winners are what brings it out on top nicely. But, here's the interesting part. If we look at our suggested bets
[10:30] in full lay mode, the results are very different. Looking at the full lay results, you can immediately see how different the risk profile becomes. Because this version of the betting strategy meant Torito cost just £1.23 to
[10:45] strategy meant Torito cost just £1.23 to qualify for a chance of winning £74.44. Democracy Dilemma cost £3.96 for a chance to bank up to £86.04. chance to bank up to £86.04. Liberty Line just 49p for 37.55.
[11:00] And Tokomadiera cost £3.10 for a chance to win £38.96. When it comes to the results, both Democracy Dilemma and Tokomadiera both landed in the places, meaning the result was a total profit of £123.28.
[11:16] So, did the betting strategy work? Across these bets, yes. It banked £164.28 in total, as you can see on my spreadsheet. However, as good as that is, it's not really the conclusion that I'd want you to take away here. It's a
[11:31] small sample of bets. The point that I want to highlight here is how the outcomes look like, and why value betting is about trusting the maths rather than expecting to win on every single bet. That's the real lesson.
[11:45] Next, see this video here where I explain why different strategies work and how to identify them repeatedly on a daily basis. Thanks for watching. Check daily basis. Thanks for watching. Check it out.