[00:01] end in 91 days.  And how low could Bitcoin fall?  We estimate, if could Bitcoin fall?  We estimate, if history continues to repeat itself, a drop of approximately 71% for this bearish cycle.  We would be
[00:15] talking about a price of one dollar per Bitcoin Bitcoin in the last 6 months, most of them are at a loss.  The US dollar is starting to get strong, and the stronger the
[00:30] dollar, the weaker high-risk assets become.  Global capital is flowing into the United States, which is negatively impacting Bitcoin.  While retail and short-term investors are panicking and selling,
[00:44] whales who understand how this game works are accumulating again at attractive not for tomorrow or next month, but certainly for the future, given what we as investors are doing.  It's the method we
[00:57] 've named the Chenk method, and it's giving us excellent results. [music] Basically, it's based on... and we have many daily transactions from all sorts of people sharing
[01:11] these results thanks to this type of strategy, which increases strategy, which increases the profitability of our liquidity. episode of Crypto Daily.  One more week.  As you can see, we're back in
[01:27] the offices after our trip to Colombia.  And well, let's discuss all the latest news from the crypto world.  What are you here to say, Eric? the crypto market and what the catalysts are that could
[01:40] cause the market to rise or fall in the coming weeks.  And we start with the Bitcoin chart to understand what market moment we are in and what is happening.  Notice how we have the Bitcoin chart again on a weekly basis,
[01:52] meaning each candle represents one week.  And notice how if we approach this part here again we have just broken or closed another week, this candle here, another week below the 200 period moving average.  This
[02:05] average basically tells us an average of the price of the last, in this case, since there are 200 periods, of the last 200 periods.  Moving averages of 7 and 21 periods, well, of any period, but the ones that are most commonly used are
[02:18] but the ones that are most commonly used are the 7, 21, and 25 period ones, and also the 200 period one, which is more at a macro level.  In any case, one, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 weeks closing below this moving average.  This means that we are usually
[02:34] in fear zones or in zones where the price is perhaps undervalued, that is, the price is below its average or the average price that the asset should have as such at a technical analysis level.  That
[02:50] means this is already the ground, right?  In fact, we'll talk later about where we think weeks, but in any case, what it does show us is that in the medium to long term, these are usually good times for long-term accumulation; that is,
[03:04] not to look at next month or 3 months from now, but to look perhaps a year, 2 years, or 3 years from now. So, well, that's good news.   We've been dealing with this for six weeks now, we'll see what happens, but in any
[03:17] case, for now, it's good news that we can start looking for buying opportunities from here on out. Yes, in fact, using the same chart that Eric is showing about Bitcoin, we are back to a
[03:32] timescale, or rather, a weekly one.  And what we have represented here are the what we have represented here are the previous Bitcoin bear cycles.  And surprisingly, almost the same thing happens perfectly, and we
[03:47] can see it here.  And now I'll explain.  Here on the far left, first this 83% drop we see is the 2018 bear market. Then we have this 77% drop from the 2022 bear market. What do
[04:05] we see in these two drops, which are the bear markets prior to the one we are experiencing now?  On the one hand, in 2017-2018 in 2017-2018 we had a drop of 83%.
[04:18] Subsequently in 2022 the fall we experienced in the bearish cycle was 77%. What does this mean?  Because of the very nature of the market and as the
[04:31] asset gets bigger and bigger, the drops in bear markets or crypto winters are getting smaller and crypto winters are getting smaller and smaller.  Here we have an 83, here a
[04:44] smaller.  Here we have an 83, here a 77, and if the rule of three holds true, we estimate, if history repeats itself, a drop history repeats itself, a drop
[04:57] for this bearish cycle, which, if we count from Bitcoin's all-time high of 126,000, would mean a price of 36,000 per Bitcoin.   This means that this has to be done perfectly and that the
[05:12] exact floor will be $6,000. No, it doesn't have to be that way.  We don't know.  In fact, we think it probably won't go that low due to other more fundamental and
[05:26] macro circumstances such as the inflow of institutional capital, ETFs, and the fact that Bitcoin is becoming a much larger asset and therefore there is more demand, which will probably prevent the price from falling that low.  But that possibility exists, and
[05:41] we as investors also need to be prepared in case we see a drop to 36,000. What are we doing as investors?  Positioning ourselves by
[05:54] performing a DCA from certain points.   We are working on all of this within the academy, and our purchase ranges are between 55,000 and purchase ranges are between 55,000 and
[06:11] smart buying, meaning there are larger percentages of purchases. The more the asset falls, the more there may be that first purchase at 55,000 of a smaller percentage, but there may be purchases at 50 and 45 of a
[06:26] larger amount.  This means that our average price gets lower and lower, and our purchase price for the next bullish cycle is very good, the next bullish cycle is very good, around 45-40,000.
[06:40] Another interesting fact we can see in this graph is that bearish cycles, the crypto winter, usually last approximately one year. Exact.  Here we can see that in 2018, from the highest point to the lowest point
[06:56] , it took us 364 days, and in 2022, from the highest point to the days, and in 2022, from the highest point to the lowest point, it took us 378 days, approximately one year as well. For this bear market we are
[07:11] experiencing, if it also lasts approximately a year, whether it's 360 or 370 days, approximately a year, we would be talking about between October and November.  I have marked a vertical line here where we would see that floor.
[07:26] I repeat, as investors we have to wait until October, November, exactly until 36,000 to buy, right? Because we'll probably be left out. Because?  He might not arrive, he might turn back before then.  Past stories
[07:41] don't have to repeat themselves, and things do n't always have to be the same market matures, and everything can change.  That's why we have these buying zones in DCA to accumulate, thinking ahead to
[07:57] probably 2027 when we see that structural change and Bitcoin highs. And now, speaking of average prices metrics that are important to consider beyond price action.
[08:12] important?  The realized price tells us the average price at which all the bitcoins currently on the blockchain have been bought.  What is realized price?  What is that little orange line here?  We have an average
[08:25] realized price of 52000-52900, talking about saying that when we start to fall to 54,000 and below, we can start buying, because this other metric, this other indicator,
[08:40] marks that price as interesting.  Notice that every time the average price, that is, when the price of Bitcoin has broken below the realized average price, these have been very interesting moments of accumulation for the
[08:52] To put it simply.  So here it was in 2015, well, it was here in 2012, it was here in 2015 after all this bear market, it was here in 2019 after all this bear market and it was also in 2022, 2023 after all
[09:08] We are not yet below that price, therefore, patience, even though gems period gems, even though there are things that seem to indicate part of the floor, we are going to patience pays off and that is the most important thing. But if we break down in a little more
[09:23] detail the price realized by short-term holders and long-term holders, notice, the same price realized, but in this short-term holders.  Who are the short-term bondholders?  It is important to note that this is
[09:36] also explained here by any wallet that has moved its bitcoins or the bitcoins that have been moved in the last 155 days, that is, the average price at which all the bitcoins that have been moved in the
[09:50] last 155 days were bought.  If we make this smaller, look, these people are losing money.  Short-term holders, obviously all those who have accumulated Bitcoin in the last 6 months, are mostly at a loss on
[10:04] are losing money.  It's an interesting time because when they're usually large losses, that's when capitulation usually happens .  We're not yet seeing huge losses relative to the average realized price, but when
[10:18] big difference between the short-term average realized price and the current Bitcoin price , that's where you usually see those more
[10:31] capitulation moments, okay?  Notice how here you can see this drop has a slightly larger difference and here we have the capitulation of, for example, the previous cycle, and on the other hand, we have the
[10:44] realized price of the long- term holders, those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, who have not moved it for 6 months.  Yes, notice how we have the price set even lower, that is, 49,000.  The
[10:58] average price for everyone is 52,900.  the average price of long-term holders is 49,800.  Therefore, from those 54,000, 52,000 and change, 53,000 almost
[11:10] down to 49,000, even below we can see Bitcoin because it is normal for the price of Bitcoin to break below these levels.  So there we look at.  And then if we go to the Z score, the MVRV Z score, which
[11:27] is the market value, realized value, which in the end what it does is combine several metrics, the market value with the realized value or the realized price and puts it all together in one metric.  It also gives us different points the other way around.  In other
[11:41] words, when this metric spikes, the MVRV Z score usually represents the peak points of the bullish cycle.  And when we enter these areas down here, which are marked in green, we see that it has entered
[11:57] see in this metric?  We have n't entered those areas yet. We're close, right?  We're in, right? What do we have to do?  Patience. Let's wait for them to come in, because they always come in.  That they stay up here is
[12:10] then there are times when it's worth waiting for those points because we'll be mean we have to wait for Vicion to fall to 30,000, 1,000, it doesn't mean we can wait for Bitcoin to fall to uh 50 and something,000, 50
[12:24] relatively little left.  From where we are now at 62,000, are now at 62,000,
[12:36] not in a week, but in one or two months.  So, these are negative news about us falling down , the in the previous crypto of the day,
[12:49] recover it and comment on it again. Similarly, when there are strong market downturns in Bitcoin, that's Similarly, when there are strong market downturns in Bitcoin, that's start accumulating again.  In fact, they had been
[13:06] don't understand the fundamentals and underlying nature of Bitcoin, whales who have been opportune moments and who do have that patience, accumulated 16.7 billion bitcoins 10 days ago,
[13:26] note: while whales who understand how this game works are accumulating again at attractive not for tomorrow or next month, but most likely for
[13:41] half from now. Given all this data, more at the level of technical analysis and on-chain metrics, there are many people who continue to say that we have already seen the bottom, that we are already turning around.  Based on
[13:55] all the data and reasons we've shared, we think not, but technical analysis isn't the only factor in a market. Fundamental analysis, current news, and the
[14:11] global macroeconomic situation, especially in the United States, also play a role, influencing any market, whether it's the stock market or, obviously, the crypto market.  and where we stand in general, specifically in the United States,
[14:27] and at a macroeconomic level.  On the one hand, it is very likely, as a result of the recent FOM meetings in June , that interest rates will either
[14:39] , that interest rates will either remain the same at around 3.5% or that there will even be increases in interest rates by the end of the year in the United States.  This is because it is negative, without going into technicalities or
[14:55] deeper economic issues, because a rise in interest rates negatively affects high- risk assets, such as Bitcoin and the crypto sector in this case.  Because?  Because this means that money, in
[15:10] quotes, is more expensive.  Borrowing money, taking out debt, borrowing money is more expensive because the rates, the interest rates are higher.  Therefore, this
[15:22] interest rates are higher.  Therefore, this leads investors to leads investors to reduce risk, value their money more, and not risk it as much, seeking safe haven or more
[15:36] conservative assets.  We have this situation. Furthermore, we are experiencing many changes within the Fed, within the United States.  Well, we've already had the first appearance of the new Fed chairman, and this has always throughout
[15:50] Fed chairman, and this has always throughout history resulted in market downturns or instability, especially in high-risk markets.  On the one hand, this is one thing , but on the other hand, we also have the US dollar
[16:05] starting to get strong, and the stronger the dollar, the weaker high-risk assets become, such as Bitcoin or the crypto sector, or even emerging markets, which are alternative markets to the American stock market,
[16:21] alternative markets to the American stock market, are future promises, so to speak, and that's why they are emerging markets.  And this is weaker against the dollar, which is practically the most conservative thing there is
[16:34] today.  So, as this news report shows, global capital is flowing towards the United States. This is because, as I just flowing towards the United States. This is because, as I just
[16:49] interest rates are getting higher and higher, and therefore investors are reducing their risk by flowing towards more is the most established in the world, and also towards the dollar. Meanwhile,
[17:04] emerging market ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive weeks, with more than $1.64 billion withdrawn from is also negatively impacting Bitcoin. And then we're also going to look at some
[17:20] very good data, which is what's going to happen in the following days.  Check out this analysis by Jacob Jaobiek, which we also like quite a lot because he has been focusing his research on
[17:34] Bitcoin, technical analysis, and more specifically because he has a very technical and mathematical view of how he actually reads the data.  Yes. He says the Bitcoin bear market could end in 91 days.  And how low
[17:48] could Bitcoin fall?  Look, what July 11th, has entered the final 91-day window that ends the
[18:01] bear markets.  Because?  And this chart, or this visualization, is very interesting.  What does it say? that all bear markets, all that all bear markets, all bear markets have ended in the
[18:14] last 91 days of the bear market having a fall or a final capitulation quite deep.  Specifically, it says that from 2014 to 2015, which it actually puts here, it had a drop of 63.54%
[18:26] in the last 91 days until it reached its minimum, which then made that minimum to catch the next bull market and had a drop of 63.54%.
[18:38] In the case of 2018, Bitcoin had a drop of 56% in its last window also of 91 days.  Yes. And here it reached its lowest point, its peak before recovering
[18:50] and starting the next upward cycle. And the same thing happened in 2022 with the collapse of And the same thing happened in 2022 with the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin fell by 37.6% seeing its low of 15,632 per Bitcoin in November, October,
[19:06] November of 2022, and then had all that bullish reality from 15,000 to 126,000 that we saw in November of last year.  What does this mean?  And according to their analysis, if you look closely, that window of decline has been decreasing
[19:19] that window of decline has been decreasing over the last 91 days cycle by cycle. over the last 91 days cycle by cycle. 63% in 2014, 56% in 2018, 37% in 2022. And he says that by doing a regression, well, a logarithmic
[19:32] Fibonacci retracement and a linear regression on past drops, that is, he analyzes how these past drops have gone to make a projection of what could happen in 2026 from the point where we are now and from the point where they were
[19:45] just doing the analysis of these 91 days when we were right at 64,657, there could be a drop of more than 26.6% that would take us to around 47,000.  000. And these are the numbers that we have been discussing with Kevin
[20:01] regarding various indications, various analyses, both in terms of as well as what has generally happened in the last bull cycles, in the last Bitcoin cycles more generally, and what
[20:16] we might see in this one.  So, well, calm down, be patient.  We're at 62000 right now drops, but we will continue to take advantage of this with other strategies until 1000 points and can start accumulating Bitcoin for the coming years.
[20:30] Having seen all this, let's now talk about what we are doing with our liquidity in a much more active way, because we are clear, as we have been discussing throughout the episode, that we know what
[20:42] our long-term buying points for Bitcoin will be.  We also have our buying points for different altcoins, such as Ethereum, but we specialize above all in finding those
[20:55] strategies that, regardless of the market situation, can increase our profitability on the liquidity we have tied up.  In other words, if I have liquidity, if I have dollars waiting to buy Bitcoin, what can I do
[21:09] with those dollars?  to have more and more dollars and therefore be able to buy even more Bitcoin when the time comes.  One of the strategies we've been talking about for weeks, even months, is the strategy of
[21:25] raffling altcoins.  It's the method we 've named the Chenk method, and it's excellent results.  And here, for example, you can see one of the operations that I have see one of the operations that I have open, and it's basically based on
[21:41] finding altcoins that have a clearly bearish trend and that after very strong rises due to pure manipulation, we open short positions , that is, we open those operations and we are getting a very
[21:56] good return on them.  And this, for example, here you can see the one for Dodo, which basically if I take a look here we can see all the operations that I have been carrying out on this specific altcoin and it is
[22:11] the one I have open now.  If I take a much closer look at the weekly or daily timeframe, that is, zooming out on the chart, what I can see is that first of all, everything has a clearly downward trend.  In other words,
[22:27] this Alcoin, since we have records on Pionex, has only ever fallen on Pionex, has only ever fallen and fallen.  That's all it's been okay?  It clearly has a downward trend, but these types of altcoins,
[22:43] as I say, due to pure manipulation, have these kinds of completely manipulated rises.  Suddenly, the price of everything here has price of everything here has increased by 50% in one hour.  Why does this
[22:57] happen?  Whether due to manipulation, the development team itself, responsible for moving the price of the altcoin, people with
[23:09] insider information, or whatever the reason, these kinds of price increases occur.  After these rises, once they slow down and confirm that they are going to start falling, they give us very interesting opportunities to open short positions, because
[23:25] in the end what it will continue to do, especially in the current situation of the crypto market, is to keep falling.  It will follow its own nature and its own tendency, excuse me, as we have seen, to fall to zero.  And we
[23:40] 're getting a lot of benefit from this. In fact, as you can see here, all of this is shared within our private decentralized crypto club, where we share all the operations that I do, that
[23:52] we do internally, and people are being able to take full advantage of it.  As you can see here, Eugenio shared with us yesterday at 7:40 here, Eugenio shared with us yesterday at 7:40 how he had achieved 27%.
[24:05] Here we have Jusp Bonnie with a 24% return, precisely by doing this type of trading.  Sergio Claver with four operations in the same day, as you can see, shorting by opening a down trade in CLO, another down trade in EVA,
[24:20] another in Eva and another in EVA, which in fact has been an alco that we have taken out went up a lot and has only fallen this weekend.  We have more opportunities here, Ana with 60% and 20%.  ATC here telling us that
[24:37] July already has its extra with Cl also Eva here I want to remind XPIN and Eva.  Here we can see it, three trades, and we have many more trades daily from all sorts of people sharing these
[24:52] results thanks to these much more active strategies with a percentage of our capital that increases the profitability of our liquidity. In fact, if you want to know much more, delve
[25:05] much deeper into these types of strategies that we are currently using in the bear market to earn more and more dollars and be able to buy more Bitcoin in the future when the time comes.  We have a completely free 15-minute class
[25:19] which is in the first line of the description.  In that class you will discover much more in depth from scratch how to apply these types of strategies and thus be able to start generating these returns on a
[25:33] monthly basis right away. And now it's your time.  It's Vodafone, isn't it? Like that legendary ad that came out.   Quite a few of you have sent us portfolios that many either, to be honest.  So if you want to do it again, I'll leave the
[25:46] case, we have seen several portfolios and we are going to analyze one in particular, that of Josué RD, who shares his portfolio with us and tells us, "Hey, right now I have the capital like this, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Injective,
[25:59] Ave, Near, AVAX and HBAR."  And it has it with these percentages, right?  Eh, 50% in Bitcoin, 12% in Ethereum, 10% in Solana, 7.7 in Injective, 7.3 AVE, 5.4 Near, 4.7
[26:12] 7.7 in Injective, 7.3 AVE, 5.4 Near, 4.7 AVAX and 2.7 HBAR.  We're going to make a might be useful to the rest of you, even if you don't have the same portfolio as us, but they are general thoughts on how to have a portfolio.  First
[26:25] point, Bitcoin.  We always talk about Bitcoin being the mother of this whole ecosystem, and for me, it's truly the real movement of the crypto sector and the asset with the largest underlying asset, meaning it has
[26:38] much larger real properties than the rest of the altcoins.  So, having true that for a relatively normal, small portfolio , which is fine to start with and grow that capital,
[26:52] having 50% is not an unreasonable number.  But from my point of view, and thinking long-term, I believe that having 50%, especially at this time when we say that the crypto market could still fall further, could mean
[27:05] being underexposed to Bitcoin and overexposed to altcoins that could continue to fall.  And when Bitcoin falls 15% from these points, the rest of the altcoins usually fall considerably more. Therefore, from our point of view, I would increase my
[27:18] exposure to Bitcoin, going to around 70%, and Bitcoin, going to around 70%, and reduce my holdings in all these altcoins. even though we're still in a bear market and altcoins are suffering more than
[27:33] Bitcoin or Ethereum or the major ones , we don't know if these projects—Injective, Ave, Near, AVAX, HBAR—will really continue to survive the next cycles.  Yes, I specifically believe that of these five, right?  Because I
[27:48] separate Bitcoin and cinemolana, which I believe are more important.  Bitcoin is also quite major, and of these five here, I would say that AVE is the only one that I think will continue to hold up cycle after cycle.  The price will be whatever it is
[28:01] , but it will continue to hold up because it has a decentralized lending protocol , the largest in the decentralized finance sector if we look at it specifically, but the other day I saw that there were more than 20
[28:14] where Fillaba was on the main platform.  Notice how the second protocol with the most locked capital is Lido, which is a liquid Ethereum staking platform, and Ave, which is on 23 chains in a heap.  He has $13 billion
[28:31] believe that AVE could be one that survives the following cycles, but I would n't bet on Injective, Near, AVAX, or HBAR, because any other competitor could come along and
[28:48] these cryptocurrencies, surpassing them in market capitalization or achieving much greater following cycles or the next bull market.  So at this time when we believe there will still be months or weeks or months of
[29:02] be months or weeks or months of decline, I wouldn't expose myself for now to any altcoin other than Ethereum. Yes, Solana maybe, but it would only have Etherium.  Because?  Because altcoins are much more speculative, and it
[29:15] 's much smarter to accumulate a speculative asset when there's a clear upward trend.  In other words, it's much smarter to take advantage when there's an upward trend, and even if I don't fully capitalize on it, from the bottom, I'll catch it
[29:28] at the 25% increase and take advantage of it until the 60-70% increase, and don't sell , but it's much smarter.  So from my point of view I would increase my position in Bitcoin, even though I understand that you haven't yet
[29:42] stated that you have any liquidity.  I'll keep that in mind so that if you create more portfolios and mention that you have UST, USDC, how would I link it, how would we distribute it as well?  But in any case, if this were a portfolio of
[29:54] everything I definitely have exposed to the crypto market already bought in crypto assets, I would increase this percentage to 70% Bitcoin, increase my percentage of Ethereum to 20% Ethereum, and put the 10% I already have
[30:08] in Solana and leave it, and I would take this away from myself today. When we see an upward trend, we then use the potential profits we 've made with Bitcoin, Cirimo Solana, or the liquidity we have to
[30:21] put in month after month, to buy altcoins at those times.  Yes. There's another issue, too, which is that when we have, for example, $2 of HB, and we're in a speculative market with large
[30:34] price fluctuations, what we want with that $2 isn't something we're going to sell when we get a two-for-one deal, right?  And if we go up to 84, we'll probably say, "Hey, well, for $40 I'll still put up with it."  That's one of the main problems that
[30:46] most early investors or novice investors entering big profit, they just keep holding on to see if those 200 or 100 will turn into 200 or 400, and that's where it gets much more complicated.  So,
[31:00] I would try to accumulate all that capital you have today in the main record it much more, and also so that you have more control over your portfolio.  Yes, I
[31:12] analysis.  Having done an analysis, well, quite quick and agile, and focused on the fact that portfolios you have in your portfolio, but as always, you also have a link below in the that you can share your portfolio and so that we can
[31:28] have just done with Josué's portfolio.  So thanks Joshua, I hope you're comment there saying, "Hey, well yeah , great, hey, no, I'm not going to change anything."  Perfect, everyone has their own decision, we don't force anyone to do
[31:42] anything.  And in fact, it's not even a recommendation, but rather what I would do if it were my portfolio in these market conditions.   That's all for very detailed and in-depth analysis of Bitcoin, comparing where we are in the market
[31:55] even with previous bear markets, outlining our buying plan different strategies that we are currently using to remain profitable.  I hope
[32:09] you appreciate this type of in-depth analysis.  all this information that we bring week by week.  If so, if it helps you, if it helps you make better decisions, if it gives you peace of mind, you can leave us a like, it
[32:22] helps us a lot.  Leave a comment letting us know what you're enjoying most about these episodes and even what you'd like us to bring you week after week.  Also remember that in the first line of the description you have the
[32:35] masterclass to understand those strategies that we use in our day-to-day work, literally with our own capital to generate those returns.  You can also leave your portfolio as Eric said,
[32:47] so we can analyze it live next week, and we'll see you in the Indeed, and importantly, don't disconnect now, as this is the most important part of the crypto sector.  Set one more decentralized and we'll see you
[33:00] next week. Chiao.  Goodbye.