[0:07] SpaceX is entering a pivotal period.
[0:10] Adding to the excitement, recent
[0:11] comments from SpaceX President Gwyn
[0:13] Shotwell may have provided the clearest
[0:15] indication yet of when Flight 13 could
[0:18] launch. Today on Great SpaceX, we'll
[0:21] break down the latest flight 13 updates,
[0:23] look ahead to flights 14 and 15, examine
[0:26] an unexpected issue aboard the ISS, and
[0:28] cover the successful return to flight of
[0:30] Japan's H3 rocket. Well, let's get
[0:33] started. For months, one question has
[0:35] dominated discussions throughout the
[0:37] Starship community. When is flight 13?
[0:40] Ever since flight 12 exceeded
[0:42] expectations, speculation has been
[0:44] everywhere. Some predicted June, others
[0:47] predicted July. A few particularly
[0:50] optimistic fans probably predicted next
[0:52] Tuesday. Now we finally have a direct
[0:55] answer from someone who would know.
[0:57] During a recent CNBC interview, SpaceX
[1:00] President Gwen Shotwell offered the
[1:02] clearest indication yet regarding
[1:04] Starship's next launch timeline.
[1:06] >> I think we're so what is it? Beginning
[1:08] of June, maybe a monthish away from
[1:11] flight 13.
[1:12] >> Okay. And then we should fly every
[1:14] month. Most importantly, that statement
[1:16] points strongly toward a July launch.
[1:20] And honestly, that makes perfect sense.
[1:22] S40 and B20 are still progressing
[1:26] through testing with static fires,
[1:27] inspections, engine evaluations, and wet
[1:30] dress rehearsals remaining on the
[1:32] schedule before launch. A June launch
[1:34] always seemed unlikely. July has long
[1:37] been the more realistic target, but the
[1:40] bigger story may not be Flight 13
[1:42] itself. It's what comes afterward. A
[1:44] July launch could restore a roughly
[1:46] twomonth flight cadence while
[1:48] potentially opening the door to
[1:50] something much more ambitious, which is
[1:53] monthly Starship launches. That pace
[1:55] would dramatically accelerate
[1:57] development by generating new data,
[1:59] testing new systems, and moving SpaceX
[2:01] closer to the capabilities required for
[2:03] Aremis and Mars. And the schedule ahead
[2:06] is demanding. Starship still needs to
[2:08] achieve orbital flight, payload
[2:10] deployment, full reusability, orbital
[2:13] refueling, and eventually lunar
[2:15] operations. Monthly launches would help
[2:17] SpaceX work through that checklist far
[2:20] more quickly. Of course, none of this
[2:22] will be easy, as everything depends on
[2:24] successful flights, reliable hardware,
[2:26] and maintaining a steady production
[2:28] pipeline. Rocket development has a
[2:30] remarkable ability to humble ambitious
[2:32] schedules. Still, if any company has
[2:35] demonstrated an ability to iterate
[2:37] quickly, it's SpaceX. So, what exactly
[2:40] will Flight 13 attempt to accomplish?
[2:42] Many fans are hoping it will become
[2:44] Starship's first true orbital mission.
[2:47] But Shotwell suggested a more cautious
[2:50] approach. We have done an inspace um
[2:53] Raptor lighting so we feel pretty
[2:55] comfortable but we want another
[2:57] suborbital shot on the next flight and
[3:00] then I hope we at least attempt an
[3:02] orbital uh injection on flight 14.
[3:05] >> That statement reveals quite a bit.
[3:07] Flight 13 will likely remain a
[3:09] suborbital mission. Rather than rushing
[3:11] directly toward orbit, SpaceX appears
[3:13] focused on further validating the V3
[3:16] design, and that's probably the right
[3:18] decision. Flight 12 was successful, but
[3:20] it wasn't flawless. Several Raptor
[3:22] vacuum engines experienced issues, and
[3:25] engine reliability remains one of the
[3:27] program's highest priorities. As a
[3:29] result, Fly 13 will likely serve as
[3:31] another major validation mission focused
[3:33] on engine performance, thermal
[3:35] protection evaluations, and broader
[3:37] system analysis. If the mission performs
[3:40] well, Flight 14 could become Starship's
[3:42] first serious attempt at orbital
[3:44] insertion, potentially later this
[3:46] summer. And once Starship reaches orbit,
[3:48] everything changes. Payload deployment,
[3:50] extended orbital operations, advanced
[3:53] re-entry testing, and eventually orbital
[3:55] refueling all become possible. Every one
[3:58] of those milestones is essential to
[4:01] future missions to the moon and Mars.
[4:03] That's why SpaceX appears willing to
[4:04] move carefully now so it can move faster
[4:07] later. The strategy is straightforward.
[4:10] Build confidence, validate systems,
[4:12] reduce risk, and then push forward
[4:14] aggressively. And Shotwell wasn't
[4:16] finished. After discussing flights 13
[4:19] and 14, she dropped another intriguing
[4:22] hint.
[4:23] >> And then maybe flight 15 actually flies
[4:24] from the cave.
[4:25] >> That single sentence could have enormous
[4:27] implications because if it happens,
[4:30] Starship will officially begin launching
[4:32] from Florida, and that changes
[4:34] everything. Beyond Starship itself, June
[4:36] 12th also marked another major moment
[4:38] for SpaceX. After years of speculation,
[4:41] rumors, and enough online debates to
[4:43] power a small city, SpaceX officially
[4:45] launched its long awaited IPO. That's
[4:48] right. The company that began in a
[4:50] modest warehouse in California has now
[4:53] taken one of the biggest financial steps
[4:55] in its history. And if the reports are
[4:57] accurate, it did not simply make a
[4:59] splash. It created a title wave. The IPO
[5:03] began trading on the NASDAQ exchange,
[5:05] arriving more than a year after SpaceX
[5:07] submitted its paperwork to the US
[5:09] Securities and Exchange Commission.
[5:12] Investor demand was immediate and
[5:14] intense. SpaceX initially offered $555.6
[5:19] million shares at $135 each, targeting
[5:24] roughly $75 billion in proceeds.
[5:26] However, demand quickly pushed the price
[5:29] higher. Shares reportedly climbed to
[5:31] between $155 and $161 during early
[5:36] trading, representing an increase of
[5:38] roughly 20%. Apparently, investors saw
[5:41] rockets and collectively decided gravity
[5:43] was optional. The result was a massive
[5:46] jump in valuation and one of the most
[5:48] significant IPO events ever recorded.
[5:51] SpaceX ultimately reached a market
[5:53] capitalization exceeding$2 trillion US
[5:56] dollars according to the figures
[5:57] released during the announcement period.
[6:00] That achievement also created another
[6:02] headline. Elon Musk reportedly became
[6:04] the world's first trillionaire within
[6:06] minutes of trading activity. Whether you
[6:07] love him, hate him, or simply enjoy
[6:09] watching the internet argue about him,
[6:11] that's a number large enough to make
[6:13] everyone's calculator nervous. During
[6:15] the NASDAQ opening ceremony, Musk
[6:17] reflected on the company's journey,
[6:19] saying,
[6:20] >> "Yeah, it it is certainly uh hard to
[6:23] believe that
[6:26] a little company that started in a
[6:29] warehouse in Elsagundo um is now
[6:33] uh
[6:35] is now is now going public for the
[6:40] was the largest IPO that uh ever." I
[6:43] gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance uh of
[6:49] succeeding at all. To be clear,
[6:51] >> looking back, that statement is
[6:53] remarkable. The company that once
[6:55] struggled to survive its early launches,
[6:57] now operates the world's largest
[6:59] satellite constellation, carries
[7:01] astronauts to orbit, develops Starship,
[7:03] and pursues missions to the moon and
[7:05] Mars. Not bad for a company that once
[7:08] believed it had less than a 10% chance
[7:10] of surviving. The financial impact of an
[7:12] IPO could be enormous. Additional
[7:14] capital would give SpaceX greater
[7:16] flexibility to expand manufacturing,
[7:18] accelerate Starship development, grow
[7:20] launch infrastructure, and support
[7:22] long-term projects. Projects ranging
[7:24] from lunar missions and Mars exploration
[7:26] to Starlink expansion and advanced
[7:29] communications systems. More broadly,
[7:31] such a move could influence the entire
[7:33] aerospace industry. Other private space
[7:35] companies may see it as proof that
[7:37] strong public market demand exists for
[7:40] space focused businesses, potentially
[7:42] attracting new investment and
[7:44] accelerating innovation across the
[7:46] sector. Of course, raising capital is
[7:48] one thing. Meeting investor expectations
[7:49] is another. Public markets tend to
[7:51] reward results, not promises. Even so,
[7:54] it would represent a major milestone,
[7:56] one that highlights just how far SpaceX
[7:58] has come since its uncertain beginnings.
[8:01] Now, let's shift from billion-dollar
[8:03] stock offerings to a very different
[8:05] challenge taking place roughly 400 km
[8:08] above Earth. The International Space
[8:10] Station is dealing with another
[8:12] maintenance issue, and this time it
[8:14] involves one of the most important
[8:16] robotic systems. Most space enthusiasts
[8:19] are familiar with Canadarm 2, but for
[8:21] those who aren't, it's essentially the
[8:23] ISS's giant robotic multi-tool.
[8:26] Recently, Canadarm 2 experienced an
[8:28] unexpected problem. NASA reported that
[8:31] during routine operations on May 27th,
[8:34] one of the robotic arms wrist joints
[8:37] demonstrated unusual behavior.
[8:39] Specifically, elevated motor currents
[8:41] were detected and the arm failed to move
[8:43] as expected. In simpler terms, one of
[8:46] the station's robotic joints decided it
[8:48] no longer felt like cooperating.
[8:50] Fortunately, the arm is currently in a
[8:52] stable position. Unfortunately, repairs
[8:55] will require a spacew walk. NASA plans
[8:57] to address the issue during an EVA
[9:00] scheduled for the 30th of this month.
[9:02] According to NASA officials, the system
[9:05] demonstrated an elevated motor current
[9:07] in a wrist joint and arm motion did not
[9:10] occur as expected. After reviewing the
[9:13] issue alongside the Canadian Space
[9:15] Agency and MDA Space Engineers
[9:18] determined that replacing the affected
[9:20] joint is the best solution. Thankfully,
[9:22] the ISS already has a spare component on
[9:25] board. This is one of those moments
[9:27] where careful planning pays off. The CSA
[9:31] explained, "Canadarm 2 was designed with
[9:34] these kinds of potential issues in mind.
[9:36] It is made up of several segments that
[9:38] can be pulled out and replaced in space.
[9:40] Restoring Canadarm 2 is important
[9:42] because it plays a vital role in ISS
[9:45] operations, capturing cargo spacecraft
[9:47] that deliver supplies, experiments, and
[9:49] equipment. Most recently, it was used in
[9:52] April to capture a Northrup Grumman
[9:54] Signis cargo vehicle. What's especially
[9:56] impressive is that Canada Arm 2 arrived
[9:58] in 2001, long before routine commercial
[10:01] resupply missions existed. Despite
[10:03] operating roughly a decade beyond its
[10:05] original design life, it completed its
[10:07] 50th spacecraft capture in 2024. As the
[10:11] ISS continues dealing with aging
[10:12] hardware, leaks, and increasing
[10:14] maintenance demands, keeping critical
[10:16] systems like Canada Arm 2 operational
[10:19] remains essential as the station enters
[10:21] the final phase of its service life.
[10:23] Now, before we wrap up today's episode,
[10:26] let's head across the Pacific to Japan
[10:28] because JAXA has something to celebrate.
[10:32] After suffering a setback during a
[10:34] previous mission, Japan's H3 rocket has
[10:37] successfully returned to flight. Liftoff
[10:39] occurred on June 11th from Tanagashima
[10:42] Space Center. The mission marked the
[10:44] eighth launch of the H3 program and
[10:46] introduced a configuration featuring
[10:48] three LE engines on the first stage.
[10:51] that made this flight particularly
[10:53] important and fortunately for for JAXA
[10:56] it was a success. All six payloads were
[10:59] successfully delivered to their intended
[11:00] orbits. That's exactly the outcome
[11:03] engineers wanted to see after the
[11:04] disappointment of the previous mission.
[11:07] The last H3 flight ended unsuccessfully
[11:09] when the Mitubiki 5 satellite was lost.
[11:12] Investigators later determined that a
[11:14] damaged payload adapter contributed to
[11:17] the failure. The resulting damage
[11:18] affected the second stage and created
[11:20] engine ignition problems. After months
[11:23] of analysis and corrective work, JAXA
[11:25] returned to the launchpad, determined to
[11:27] prove the rocket's reliability. This
[11:29] mission did exactly that. According to
[11:32] JAXA, the rocket flew as planned,
[11:35] successfully placing the second stage
[11:37] into its designated orbit and separating
[11:39] petrol and Stars X approximately 16
[11:42] minutes and 4 seconds after launch. For
[11:44] Japan, this launch represents more than
[11:46] just another mission. It demonstrates
[11:48] persistence. Every space program faces
[11:51] setbacks. The key is learning from them
[11:53] and moving forward. JAXA has done that.
[11:56] That brings us to the end of today's
[11:58] episode. As always, thank you for
[11:59] watching and supporting the channel.
[12:01] Please hit that subscribe button and
[12:03] don't forget to like the video.
[12:04] Otherwise, folks, this has been Kevin
[12:06] from Great SpaceX. And until next time,
[12:08] keep looking