--- title: 'Urgent BTC Analysis: How to Trade? Forecasts, Short Conditions, and Crypto Market Technical Analysis' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vbluco_m-k0' video_id: 'Vbluco_m-k0' date: 2026-07-23 duration_sec: 812 channel: 'ProMarket | Полунин Олег' --- # Urgent BTC Analysis: How to Trade? Forecasts, Short Conditions, and Crypto Market Technical Analysis > Source: [Urgent BTC Analysis: How to Trade? Forecasts, Short Conditions, and Crypto Market Technical Analysis](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vbluco_m-k0) ## Summary The video provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin, focusing on the current correction phase and potential short-selling opportunities. The analyst interprets the recent price rise from $74,000-$75,000 as a corrective ABC structure within a larger bearish trend, supported by declining volumes and bearish divergence on multiple timeframes. Key levels and conditions for short positions are discussed, with a warning to follow risk management. ### Key Points - **Introduction and Community Links** [00:04] — The host greets viewers and reminds them of useful links in the description, including a free trader community and a Telegram channel for daily updates. - **Higher Timeframe Bearish Trend** [02:02] — Since late January, Bitcoin has been in a medium-term bearish trend. The recent growth from $74,000-$75,000 is interpreted as a correction, not a reversal. - **Fibonacci Retracement Levels** [02:45] — The price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and is now in a local short-term flat. This suggests the correction may be complete. - **Wave Structure Analysis** [03:29] — The decline appears as a five-wave impulse, while the subsequent rise has a three-wave corrective structure (ABC), supporting the bearish outlook. - **Volume Divergence** [06:45] — Prices are rising but volumes are consistently falling across multiple timeframes, indicating a lack of buying conviction and potential trend reversal. - **MACD Indicator** [08:31] — The MACD histogram is below the signal line, providing additional confirmation for short positions, though the host warns against relying solely on indicators. - **Risk Management Reminder** [10:12] — The host emphasizes the importance of risk management when opening manual positions, noting that many traders lose deposits. - **Daily Timeframe Reversal Pattern** [10:41] — A cluster of extreme candles at the top of the structure on the daily chart suggests a reversal formation, with decreasing volumes on each successive candle. - **Target Levels and Scenarios** [12:01] — The nearest downside target is $90,000-$89,000. If price rises to $97,000, the bearish scenario remains valid as long as it stays within the correction zone. ### Conclusion The analyst maintains a bearish medium-term outlook on Bitcoin, expecting a decline from current levels or after a potential spike to $97,000. Key confirmations include wave structure, volume divergence, and reversal patterns on the daily chart. ## Transcript April 29th. I'm glad to see you all, although I don't see you, you see me. although I don't see you, you see me. I hope you are happy too. As always, I hope you are happy too. As always, like to remind you that all the useful links are in the description, links to the free trader community where our copy trading is located, which will be 500 days old in a few days, and will soon be 2 years old. It has been profitable for more than 2 years and has statistics for more than 8 years. All useful links in my Telegram channel, where we meet every day. If this review, and the analysis that I'm going to show you today, and tell you about it, and explain it, if it suddenly becomes irrelevant or my opinion changes in some way, naturally, I'll immediately opinion changes in some way, naturally, I'll immediately let you know about it on my Telegram. Let's not beat around the bush and move straight to the bitcoin chart. I'd like to remind you that we have a webinar schedule open and the previous scenario that I posted here is marked. which I, posted here is marked. which I, therefore, threw in here. And he realized himself completely. We are removing this red history. We no longer need to mark this sidebar. But I will leave this particular wave structure , because the waves that I use as one of the conditions in my comprehensive approach, I have been saying this phrase for the fourth or fifth year on my channels, on my resources. And today, we will today, we will definitely watch the waves together. So, I would like to start with higher timeframes. From higher timeframes. timeframes. From higher timeframes. So, from the end of January, from the second half of January, we have a medium-term, or maybe global, medium-term, or maybe global, bearish, bearish movement, bearish bearish, bearish movement, bearish cycle, bearish trend on Bitcoin. And now we have seen growth. And how, therefore, to interpret this growth is absolutely unclear. Some people think that this means that in the area of 74-75 thousand dollars we had a bottom, and now we will go to 100 thousand plus, to 150 thousand plus. Well, then, let's figure it out. Let me remind you that it can be absolutely anything . If we use a classical analysis tool and measure, that is, the entire given structure from the zero point to its extreme, smallest value, then what do we see? We see that our price has reached the see? We see that our price has reached the 0618 zone to the Fibonacci correction levels of 0.618 and to the fifth level 0. And now our price is moving in a local short-term flat. Today's review will local and short-term picture. And the scenario, and I will give the expected one, short-term picture. But I would like to start again with a more global picture. So, we are in the correction zone, and this structure looks like an impulse five-wave structure, right? That is, this is an impulse fall on increased volumes, on impulses, vertical, bright movements. And does this movement look like a correction to us? That is, does this whole growth from 74-75,000 dollars look like it, and does it have a correction structure? Do we have the moral right, based on the market structure and the same wave analysis, to interpret this growth as a corrective structure? Can. Why? Because this structure has a three-wave structure. A three-wave our corrections can have a classical three-wave structure . Forms of classic correction of the ABC formation or to be sideways. We don't have any sidewalls here this zone perfectly, and we formed a correction of the ABC formation. Can we interpret this as, uh, a three-wave ABC correction? Of course we can. Of course we can. And we have every moral right to do so. Fibonacci, I'm removing it, look further into what's happening more locally in this whole story. What is characteristic of correction? And, therefore, this zone, yes, correction? And, therefore, this zone, yes, this is a zone in which, logically, we look for additional conditions for opening positions. To open which positions in this case, to open short positions. But again, if we're not looking at a short-term scenario directly, but a more global one, then there's scenario directly, but a more global one, then there's , uh, a small spoiler. I think that we will either roll down from the current values, or we can prick even higher, there to 96.5, to 97,000 dollars, which I talked about in my Telegram channel, and also move down. And in terms of the medium-term and the overall analysis I'm talking about now, will not change its relevance, despite any short-term twitches in Bitcoin. It is very important to understand that while we are in this zone, at the lower limit, the upper limit, we will go to 97,000 dollars and so on, this setup remains completely relevant, because in addition to what I am because in addition to what I am talking about now, there are other conditions, and these are all conditions that, in principle, must coincide in order for this coincide in order for this scenario to work out, uh, have the potential for maximum probability. for maximum implementation. maximum implementation. So, the structure of wave A for So, the structure of wave A for us is like this: let's switch to the hourly chart. We have a five-wave system. So, I noted this story . Everything is clear here. We're cleaning up. Wave B is also a corrective wave, that is, A is an impulse corrective wave. Wave B is a correction, uh, a corrective, yes, wave. And has a flat structure. Everything is also nice, clear and very harmonious. looks like. And, therefore, impulse wave, which is an impulse. Here we had quite good growth. So, the next thing I would like to attention to is volumes. Let's switch back to the five o'clock time. Let me remind you that I have a Binance chart open, which is the best place to look at volumes. And we have a discrepancy between price and volume. Our prices are rising, but volumes are consistently falling. You and I see that the volumes are being monitored. Notice. that the volumes are being monitored. Notice. Once again, a warning. If we look at it and double-check ourselves on the hourly timeframe, here we see an absolutely identical picture: throughout this entire growth, the volumes were smaller and smaller. Let's do it this way . Less, less, less, draw a line of clearly expressed bearish divergence. bearish divergence. Ah, and it is, that in this area of growth, that in this area of ​​growth. If we look at the situation more, that is, in the short term, yes, and we will consider exclusively this, uh, this growth, which I have marked as a wave, which led us to the level of 0618 to the current values, we see here an absolutely identical short-term story, that our price is growing, and the volumes are consistently, consistently falling. There was a surge in volumes, then it became smaller, smaller, smaller and even smaller. This is also an excellent confirmation that the market confirmation that the market trend will change. Ah, the next condition that I would like to draw your attention to is that we can look at various open the MacD indicator. Oh, well, by the way, great, yes. Well, uh, I don't usually use the shows us a pretty good, not quite good , but concrete, not far-fetched lies in the fact that we are now also at the maximum trading volume beginning of the year, that is, from the beginning of the year we are now in the zone of maximum trading volume. More precisely, if you open it like this, we have it right here. But nevertheless, here we also see a surge in volumes, we see a so-called volume shelf. additional confirmation. The next thing I would like to draw your attention to is the MGD indicator. Let's see what we have on it. I didn't see what we have on it. I didn't do this, I didn't watch it until the start of today's review. Ah, but there's actually nothing interesting here yet. Although there is, yes, we see that we have a histogram, the green and red columns are currently below the yellow signal line. This also serves as a confirmation for opening short positions. But it's important to remember that this is a damn indicator and should only be used as a last resort. And the next condition, the last condition, to which I want to draw your attention, that is, looking at the current chart, one can say, and it may seem, that all the stars have aligned, friends. But it is important that if you open any manual positions, I beg you, follow risk management. I understand that, uh, not everyone will listen to me because I say this. The market situation and the percentage of people losing their deposits one after another won't decrease, but I still want to encourage you to do so. So, if we look at the daily So, if we look at the daily time frame, we see here a beautiful reversal formation in the form of a cluster, a whole cluster of extreme candles at the top of this structure. We have one extreme candle, two extreme candles. Let me even make this closer so that it is make this closer so that it is drilling, [ __ ], [ __ ]. Please excuse my French Russian. So, this extreme candle, yes, it is simply beautiful, wonderful, just what we need, because these candles, they are not on volumes, I emphasize, greater than the greater volumes than the previous one. So, this is a great reversal pattern. Well, at the same time behind this we have here 1 2 3 4 at the moment four can also be called extreme. We'll see how today's daily candle closes . That is, this model is a cool, wonderful model for growth and ugh, you for growth, for decline. Towards a fall in this case. And it’s decline. Towards a fall in this case. And it’s also important, yes, let me also important, yes, let me mark this on the graph, on the graph at mark this on the graph, on the graph at the end of today’s video, uh, so that it’s the end of today’s video, uh, so that it’s say, yes, what I just showed, I remind you again, I just showed extreme candles on the daily timeframe. It is important that if we daily timeframe. It is important that if we go up here and go down, let me set the nearest target there at $90,000, $9089,000. If we go higher to 97, this and 97+ does not mean that to 97, this and 97+ does not mean that this scenario will become irrelevant for us because we are plus or minus in the correction range zone and so on. All other conditions are preserved on the chart . And we can also roll . And we can also roll down plus or minus right from the current values. Here are the two scenarios that I currently see on the chart. If of course, on my Telegram channel, the link to which is in the description. Be sure to subscribe. It's awesome, fun, wonderful and educational. Well, that's Please write what you think in the comments. Don't skimp on comments. Share this video with your trader friend or someone who wants to start trading for extra education. It won't bother him. I would also like to remind you at the end of the video that all the useful links are very useful and of very high quality. Go ahead, watch, study, read, don't be lazy, don't engage in gambling addiction. Subscribe and like. That's all for everything is clear. Hugs to everyone. Have a nice day everyone, profit in the market, good luck, day everyone, profit in the market, good luck, discipline. That's all, bye. M.