Bitcoin to $100,000 Sooner Than You Think: Supply Shock to Trigger Bull Run on BTC and ETH!!!

[00:01] is steadily at $50,000, stable as the world's best stable coin and the one that protects our money from inflation. Evans has also been steadily some useful content, so friends, let's get comfortable, have some tea, coffee,

[00:18] as always, in a good mood, because what else should it be? Today we'll go over very simple topics: supply and demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the hypothesis that Bitcoin will reset to zero, and why bloggers think so. In general, all the most

[00:33] interesting things in a simple form and very quickly without much fluff, friends, let's fly. Let's start, perhaps, with the hypothesis about Bitcoin resetting. I analyzed the top bloggers who think so, and the coolest thing is that I discovered such a

[00:47] pattern that they think so because, alas, they didn't buy Bitcoin because they believe that altcoins will give more profit, that is, these people came just to earn x. That is, they are also such big hamsters, they are not investors,

[01:02] they are not enthusiasts, they are just Speculators who are trying to make money on the price difference, speculators on the 5-year rate, will lose everything, I'm sure of it, we'll see this 100 times. They don't show us their results and their

[01:16] fails, so friends, of course. Most of us have a bias in our beliefs. Each person is inclined to somehow convince themselves psychologically that they made the right choice by buying exactly the right altcoins, and they hate

[01:31] altcoins they don't need, which they don't have. That's why these bloggers who didn't buy Bitcoin and some other altcoins that have grown, they hate them because they want their altcoins to grow. This is such a simple

[01:45] new hypothesis. Write in the comments what you think, why do these people what you think, why do these people benefit from talking about this? Well, for me, the hypothesis is that the benefit for them is Hi. Because you will be such a black

[01:57] sheep, such an alternative dude who will tell everyone that Bitcoin will says so. And I say so, and you attract an audience to yourself, but no one. There is no single fundamental argument why this will happen.

[02:12] We, friends, don't have one. This chart shows a weighted average market forecast for the price of Bitcoin. There are bottom values, peak values, and sometimes we reach them, sometimes we don't. This is an approximate vector and trend for the development of the price of Bitcoin.

[02:26] Every four years, halving reduces the amount of supply that flows into the market because miners mine less per block, and our demand is tens of times higher than this supply. Therefore, a supply shock will come sooner or later. For

[02:40] me, it's just a matter of time until Bitcoin shows five-digit marks or even higher. Therefore, friends, the most important thing for us is to survive until this moment. Many bloggers say that this is exactly what will happen. This is the situation now. I will show you

[02:55] that we will break this downward trend. And this is all a global cycle that will unfold because this is all a bubble and everything is doomed. I have a very interesting example for you. This is the company of a well-known investor and speculator. This is

[03:10] our share of the company Burer Hatw Waren Buffet. Friends, a personal person has not yet come to us, but it would be It's funny, friends, many analysts also predicted a fall, that the trend would sooner or later reverse and that the whole curve would bend, but friends,

[03:25] there is inflation, money is printed and all this goes into the valuation of these companies, their emission is limited, like with Bitcoin, so friends, this whole trend broke down, only it didn't break down as analysts predicted, but it still

[03:41] broke up and now the price of one share is 600,000 dollars. I have one share is 600,000 dollars. I have n't found an explanation for myself for many years, friends, n't found an explanation for myself for many years, friends, why Bitcoin can't cost more

[03:56] than the share of one centralized 3-star company, I have n't found an answer for myself, I'm still looking, asking people at conferences, asking bloggers and speakers. Everyone tells me some kind of conspiracy theory, all skeptics are ridiculous, but so far I haven't found a single

[04:12] argument, neither mathematical nor any physical, not even logical, so I'm playing with the trend. Well, let these bloggers change their shoes 100 times, you and I came to the market for cryptocurrency,

[04:27] 3 more A year ago, immediately with the understanding that you and I would be investors and not speculators. It’s clear that people very rarely watch useful content. It’s very rarely watch useful content. It’s easier for them to watch programs like “Inexplicable

[04:40] but True” and programs like “Battle of Psychics.” In principle, this is what’s happening People are trying to predict where the peak will be, where the bottom will be, but I believe that in the long term, only those who can

[04:53] run a marathon will win, not those sprinters who try to trade and give everyone different signals and their forecasts. The most important thing is to always say that “Maybe I don’t know this, or maybe I’ll be wrong.” But, friends, don’t hate me to hype it up,

[05:06] wrong.” But, friends, don’t hate me to hype it up, and on the fact that it can fall and on the fact that it can grow. If you shoot a lot of content and talk about whether Bitcoin can go to zero or not, then you will always win, and

[05:19] everyone will thank you. Part of the audience will thank you for the fact that it has grown into space. Part of the audience will thank you for what could happen if it goes to zero. They will thank you for saving money. You will save at least half of the audience this way, I, my

[05:33] friends, have accepted it for myself. A balanced, fundamentally strong position for me. I believe that no Bitcoin update will ever happen as long as I'm alive. This is definitely not going to happen. I

[05:46] think so, this is my conviction, this is my opinion. I'm ready to bet my money on it. Well, let the speculators do what they want. I think that Bitcoin's all-time high will be updated. It's a matter of time, and it will reach the five-digit mark. It's

[06:00] also a matter of time. Well, you think for yourself in terms of Bitcoin. Friends, our Bitcoin supply has been declining since 2020. We've been mining Bitcoin for 5-10 years, everything was sent to exchanges, people

[06:15] accumulated them from the exchange, only being withdrawn. The outflow is very strong. I think that each time more and more Bitcoins will settle in the hands of strong investors. Hamsters will give them away, and over time, in about 5-10 years,

[06:31] if there is one Bitcoin, it will be a fiercely rich hamster. But I think that people will already be trading Satoshi in about 5-10 years. Therefore, friends, if you 5-10 years. Therefore, friends, if you have one Bitcoin Then you are among the 21 million

[06:45] people who could potentially have this bitcoin. If we assume that there are only 21 million bitcoins, and some companies already have a lot of bitcoins, then there definitely won't be enough bitcoins for everyone. And if there are at least 1 million people who

[06:59] have one or more bitcoins, then you are among the golden million. That's why I believe that the first goal of any adequate cryptocurrency is to accumulate exactly one bitcoin, not an altcoin. That's how it is. And then do whatever you

[07:12] want. This is your hedge against inflation. This is your hedge against any stress in the economy and in the crypto industry. There wo n't be any zeroing out. So, friends, further down the line, SNP 500.

[07:24] We set a goal of $5,000 with you, and it flew up very quickly, which is great. I think that the bettor will decrease. I have such a forecast. We said that the rate will be fixed for 7-8 months already. We have been here for

[07:39] 7 months, in history, we have an average of 7 to 15 months. The maximum period was 15 months - This is keeping the rate at one level. Here it was seven. Here it

[07:52] was seven. Here it was six. Here it was five. Here it was three. Here it was 15 on average. This is about 7-15 months we've already been through. If we

[08:04] start lowering the rate, then, friends, only because there will be stress in the economy, we can, in principle, not lower it yet because there is no stress in the economy yet. Liquidity in the market is returning, everything is fine, and the funniest thing is that many people

[08:20] fine, and the funniest thing is that many people don't understand this. Bitcoin moves in cycles. Not because there is a halving, but because Bitcoin cycles coincide with global cycles of liquidity expansion, including

[08:34] its return to the markets every four years. We simply have increasing market liquidity, the money supply is increasing M2 - this is 100% constant. It sometimes sags

[08:46] because there is the Treasury, there is the Fed. They sometimes tighten, then stimulate monetary policy. But all this is not the point. The S&P 500 is $5,000, our friends.

[08:58] Touch it, we set this goal together, everything is fine, there may be a correction. The mammoths are dragging all this down, they'll pump these companies with even more money. It's a shame, so we're sitting here. If you have stocks, we're sitting in hold'em. Some mid- and small-

[09:14] cap stocks haven't even started growing yet, so first the blue chips fly out, then the mid-caps, then the low- caps, and that's where the cycle ends. Friends, the funniest thing is that many people don't understand this. They tie

[09:29] Bitcoin's growth cycles to the halving. But the funniest thing is that it just so happened that Bitcoin launched during the crisis in 2009, and this coincided with the bottom of liquidity and the bottom of the cycle. We just have cycles that move every four years.

[09:46] cycles that move every four years.

[10:07] Our liquidity is either shrinking or expanding. M2 is still expanding, no matter what the Treasury and the Fed do, whether they manipulate, tighten, or stimulate US monetary policy. Somehow, all this will sooner or later lead to an explosion in prices, especially for assets that are deflationary. According to these weighted average calculations, we currently have demand of 9%. 10 times the supply, sooner or later, this will simply explode the price very strongly. Let's move on. Let's move on.

[10:22] Bitcoin dominance. I think we will end the growth of this Colt dominance end the growth of this Colt dominance somewhere around 60.6.2% and then we will fall. This is approximately the same as the trend.

[10:37] We are somewhere around here. I think we will go in. And then we will go down and there will be a crazy alt season. This will be after the Bitcoin peak. I am sure of this, so I am betting on it, holding my assets and not dumping them. Even now, if we are

[10:51] talking about altcoins, I will sell my altcoins even more so. Only if I see some paranormal movements. Until then, there are no such posts on Twitter. I am writing for you. Our guys in the Crypto community are also helping you,

[11:04] so come to us. We will help you figure it all out. Some interesting forecasts from people since 1918. Here is a man drawing here. What will happen next with Bitcoin peak. There was $20,000, the bottom, he predicted

[11:19] $4,000, he almost guessed it was a little lower. But that's essentially not the point, essentially not the point, essentially. That's how it is, friends, and then the next peak

[11:31] was $70,000, almost hit $69,000. $20,000 was the bottom, although it was $15,600, also insignificant, so the next peak is $300,000. But if it happens, friends, it will be crazy. I don't expect such numbers.

[11:48] it will be crazy. I don't expect such numbers. I expect more modest numbers of $120-150. But even at these levels, I will not sell Bitcoin. I have two assets that I will not sell at any such levels, even to

[12:01] such levels, even to sell high and buy cheap. Only I will sell Bitcoin and Ethereum only if I see a paranormal value and very strong greed of people. Well, let's say if Bitcoin is $28,300 in this cycle. Yes, I will

[12:17] sell it, 100% if it doesn't happen. I won't sell because these paranormal understand that the fall will be very strong, they pumped up very strongly. I mean,

[12:29] all the pumping is in terms of price. That's because speculators will suffer very much, but you and I don't want to suffer further. Here are the pictures people are showing on Twitter: 88,000 with 125 leverage, went in at 15,600 and now it's 50,000 dollars.

[12:45] Friends, this is all lies and nonsense. Because, friends, with such leverage, you can sit down and calculate for yourself in a year and a half his position would have been liquidated if he hadn't provided the documents, he would have had the margin because the funding rate would have eaten up all of this,

[12:59] holding the position. The exchange wouldn't have let you hold this position for so long. This is complete nonsense, so here it could be a dollar or two, add the margin and show numbers like these. So that you can then look at these posts and subscribe to all

[13:15] these stories. And he also shows here that he has 8 million dollars. Well, yeah, right. Yeah, yeah, go ahead, we've been through all this before. In short, friends, what could

[13:27] happen on Bitcoin? Do you perceive any corrections as simply a shakeout of weak hands? Let's sit back, don't worry, and hold. I 'll be releasing videos for you more often, any interesting news comes out. We'll just be

[13:41] in good shape so you don't get tired. A 10-15 minute video every day so 10-15 minute video every day so you're up to date. Further, from our fund, Scale, uh, outflows have stabilized at below $100 million,

[13:55] while inflows into other Deya Bitcoin Tifos are around Deya Bitcoin Tifos are around $400-600 million per day. Demand far exceeds supply. Gentlemen, plus friends, Bitcoin ETF exceeded a net

[14:10] inflow of $3 billion in just one month. Bitcoin Gold, ugh, that is, Tifo for gold, it took friends 2 years. I think this is a very strong

[14:23] fundamental indicator. This is how much money is coming here. If there are those who are buying now, then they probably expect it to be higher, and these investors.

[14:35] Some of them came for the long term, this is a minority, but most came for the short term, and they will lose this money, I'm sure of it. Well, because I've been seeing people for years now, I have a question: how can you lose money on

[14:48] Bitcoin if you just buy at any price every day? Only if you sell low because you're terribly scared? Why? Because there are guys who are hyping up the fad that Bitcoin will reset to zero and it's better to buy altcoins. This is

[15:03] Gabella. You can buy altcoins, but it's high risk. But if you don't have Bitcoin, what kind of enthusiast are you? What kind of Bitcoin will reset to zero, then what will happen to altcoins? They're simply finished.

[15:17] Trust will be lost in the long-lived crypto industry itself. Then what will happen? Well, people just don't. Well, how can you believe that Bitcoin will reset to zero? Altcoins live. Well, how is this supposed to work? The leader is the most

[15:45] capital will simply be washed away from the crypto industry. Everyone will run back to stocks because it will be very scary. It will be a crypto winter for 5-10 years. If the end of the entire crypto industry hasn't already happened, some companies won't survive, they'll simply switch from web2 to

[16:01] web3 and remove some blockchain extensions and tokens from their products, that's all. That's all that will happen, that

[16:30] opinion. Everything that people call fundamentals is technology, companies, funds, bakers, and so on. That's nonsense. It's not fundamental. That's just their belief. For me, fundamentals are something that can't be faked, something you

[16:45] can rely on, something that shows that future demand is for caste, that's what the shows that future demand is for caste, that's what the hash rate is for me. So, pay attention, at the bottom, our hash rate grew. That is, at the peak of the market, we had a hash rate of about 180

[17:01] at the peak of the market, we had a hash rate of about 180 million terahs per second. At the bottom, It was 220 and now we have essentially grown three to four times in hashrate, that is, this

[17:13] growth within the context of the price decline was already predicted in advance that miners are buying and more and more miners are joining the network. This is a deferred metric of demand

[17:25] for Bitcoin itself because miners mine Bitcoin in order to sell it later to large companies both on and off-exchanges. There is liquidity, you can deposit your bitcoins on the exchange and sell them, friends. That's how things are, so the most fundamental

[17:39] metric is Bitcoin's hashrate. For me, this is a deferred metric of future growth, friends. By the way, if we also assume that at the peak of the market, the hashrate assume that at the peak of the market, the hashrate was somewhere around 200 and now it is 600, then

[17:53] the price should be two to three times higher than at the peak of the market. If we say that Rome that Ray reflects deferred demand for Bitcoin, that's how things are, that's all because equipment and electricity cost money, so Bitcoin could easily

[18:09] cost 120 and 200, or maybe even 300,000 dollars, we'll see anyway, I'll be sitting in the hallway the entire cycle, so I'll see all these marks there and we'll make our decision further, friends, this is our favorite metric, nle

[18:27] net unrealized, friends, I think that for some reason there will be friends, I think that for some reason there will be something special in this cycle. And that all these metrics will break, I'll just break them upwards and we won't have such

[18:41] downward dynamics. I still think that we will interrupt the euphoria for this indicator and there is a formula by which it is built, you can read the link, I'll leave it in the description. It's a rather interesting metric. It should be observed only from the point of view of

[18:56] dynamics, not peak or bottom values, namely dynamics. All this falls down, it all grows up, sooner or later this indicator will break,

[19:08] I think that Up and not down. The P cycle indicator is the most interesting, the stupidest, easiest, dumbest indicator, but somehow it works in such a way that it shows peak marks. Let's see what happens in this cycle. Because when these

[19:21] two lines converge This shows us the delayed metric of the market peak, we'll see if it breaks this time or not. All indicators will break sooner or later, all indicators are incorrect, some friends are useful, so you

[19:38] can take it into account, but I would n't base my forecast on it. Because sooner or later it will break because the more people look at it, the more people buy and sell this way, any major player can take

[19:51] advantage of this. Video of the intersection here, a major player understands that some people will sell, he can buy it all even higher, they will test Thomas and will sell it all on their purchases, so this is not a Great

[20:05] Manipulator, it's just a market game. If the majority uses something, it can no longer be used. It will work exactly the opposite, all friends, somehow this is how we will say goodbye to you. Thank you all for watching, for your likes,

[20:20] comments and subscriptions, I'm going to rest, see you tomorrow. Likes for the video. And I'm going to write a new video for you, and if you haven't subscribed yet, you'll be

[20:40] you think, will it reset to zero? Bitcoin Well, when? Write. Maybe someday your comment will be at the top because you'll guess the time. Well, the price of

[20:52] Bitcoin will be reset. And most importantly, indicate the reason why it will be reset because I've been looking for this reason for 5 years now. I have

[21:08] Maybe you know it. Bye, everyone. Goodbye, everyone. I gave you a little boost to Hodel. I hope it's not speculation. That's because our channel is specifically about Hodel. because our channel is specifically about Hodel. Thank you again, everyone. Bye, everyone.