99% БИТКОИНОВ уже добыто! И вот что будет дальше.. thumbnail

Bitcoin Scarcity Explained — Full Breakdown & Transcript

0h 12m video Published Jun 21, 2026 Transcribed Aug 7, 2026 SerCrypto

Intermediate 8 min read For: Crypto investors and traders seeking clarity on Bitcoin's supply dynamics and practical strategies for the post-99%-mined era.

AI Trust Score 68/100

⚠️ Average / Some Fluff

"Delivers the scarcity promise with three honest scenarios, but the two-plus minutes of sponsor plugs dilute a solid breakdown."

AI Summary

This video analyzes the reality of Bitcoin scarcity: over 95% of the 21 million hard-capped coins are already mined, with the final 1% stretching until the end of the century. The author walks through three scenarios — dark, bright, and realistic — and derives practical investment and trading strategies for the era of shrinking supply.

[00:30]

The hard cap and current supply

The maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is hardwired into the code. At the start of 2026, the 20 millionth coin was in circulation — more than 95% of the entire stock.

[00:59]

Halving cycle and issuance rate

Approximately every 4 years the release rate is halved. Currently around 450 new coins are released per day, and Bitcoin inflation is less than 1% per year. The next halving is in 2028.

[01:14]

Permanently lost coins

Between 2 and 4 million coins may be lost forever due to forgotten passwords, dead wallets, and discarded hard drives — meaning there is even less available Bitcoin than the blockchain figures suggest.

[02:16]

Dark scenario: scarcity is not a catalyst

The fact that almost everything has been mined is not secret information — the market already knows. Urgency-based marketing ('last chance to get in cheap') causes retail to jump in at the worst moments.

[03:15]

Recent drawdown example

In October 2025 Bitcoin cost around $126,000, then dropped significantly — becoming half as cheap. Those who bought at the highs are sitting in the red.

[03:32]

Mass liquidation event

On October 21st, positions worth approximately $19 billion were liquidated in one day — more than 1.5 million traders were wiped out, mainly those using leverage and believing in a guaranteed pump.

[04:19]

Bright scenario: supply shock

The bright scenario: fewer new coins each year, but demand from private investors, funds, and even governments (viewing Bitcoin as a reserve asset) grows over time. This creates a 'supply shock' with long-term upward price pressure.

[05:04]

Patience as the winning strategy

In the bright scenario, patience wins — those who quietly buy little by little over years and simply hold get the best results without stress. Lost coins enhance the scarcity effect.

[07:00]

Realistic scenario: slow growth with pain

The realistic scenario: supply decreases slowly, 99% will be mined by ~2035 with the tail stretching to the end of the century. Historically, Bitcoin grows long-term but with sharp rises, 50-70% drawdowns, and years of sideways movement. Strong moves often come within 1.5 years after halving.

[07:45]

Investor vs. trader outlook

For an investor with a long horizon, the picture is positive — deficit and demand act as a tailwind. But for active traders, most retail traders lose over the long term because the saw-like movements are almost impossible to predict consistently.

[08:45]

Investment strategy: DCA and patience

'Bitcoins are about to run out' is marketing — they will be mined for another 100 years. The most effective approach: buy small amounts on a fixed schedule without trying to guess the bottom. Halving is a convenient calendar, not a guarantee.

[09:29]

Self-custody and security

Coins should be kept under your own control, not on someone else's exchange. The millions of lost bitcoins are a reminder that security (passwords, seed phrases, wallets) is where fortunes are lost.

[09:45]

Trading: leverage kills, trade levels not stories

The main killer of retail traders is leverage. The lower the leverage, the longer the deposit lasts. Rarity is not traded intraday — traders should focus on levels, risk, and liquidity rather than scarcity narratives.

[11:53]

Conclusion: behavior over supply

All three scenarios come down to one idea: what matters is not how much Bitcoin is left, but how retail behaves. The right behavior: don't fuss over artificial urgency, think long-term, keep coins under control, and avoid leverage under a beautiful story.

Mentioned in this Video

Bybit

service

Dragonfly trading bot

tool

Sergey (Sir Crypto)

person

Sir Crypto Telegram channel

link

Tutorial Checklist

1 08:58 Buy Bitcoin in small amounts on a fixed schedule (DCA) without trying to guess the bottom — this removes the beginner's main problem of emotional entry at highs.

2 09:29 Keep coins under your own control in a self-custody wallet, not on someone else's exchange — lost passwords and seed phrases are where fortunes disappear.

3 09:45 If trading, use low or no leverage — the lower the leverage, the longer the deposit lasts. Avoid the 'shoulder' that wiped out 1.5M traders in one day.

4 10:12 Trade levels, risk, and liquidity rather than the scarcity narrative — rarity is too slow for intraday decisions.

Study Flashcards (10)

What is the hard-coded maximum supply of Bitcoin?

easy Click to reveal answer

21 million bitcoins, hardwired into the code.