Why 99% of Crypto Traders Fail
60sShocking survival statistics in trading trigger curiosity and fear of missing out.
▶ Play Clip"Delivers on the promise of real statistics and algo trading insights, but heavy on self-promotion and product pitching."
Oleg Polunin, an 8-year crypto and investment veteran, delivers a presentation on algorithmic trading (algo trading) in futures markets. He emphasizes the harsh survival statistics for manual traders, introduces his portfolio of automated trading systems, and discusses the realities of centralized exchange copy trading, including the prevalence of low-quality products and the role of martingale strategies.
Polunin asks the audience about their experience with futures markets and face-to-face trading with long-term statistics, setting the stage for a discussion on algo trading.
In Russia, there are over 4,000 trading and crypto channels, but out of more than 100,000 traders, only about 12-13 survive over a 5-year period, a percentage between 1% and 3%. The survival rate over a real long-term distance drops to less than 0% for manual trading as a tool for long-term earnings.
Polunin introduces himself as the author of the 'Market' community (Telegram and YouTube). He defines algorithmic trading as automated trading systems (robots, bots) and warns that it's a separate market where over 98% of products are low-quality or fraudulent.
Nlab is a portfolio strategy comprising 10 trading systems, each profitable over more than 6 years. It avoids common strategies like martingale and grid, which are often found in copy trading sections on most centralized exchanges.
The flagship algorithm includes seven trend strategies and three impulse strategies. The track record shows statistics for 6 years, taking into account compound interest.
MyBook is a platform for maintaining and verifying trading statistics, quoted worldwide by funds and companies. Polunin notes he only discovered it in his fifth year in the market.
For over 9 months, these systems have been connected to public copy trading accounts. Polunin is a partner of Bitget, a top-5 exchange, where his account 'Polunin Trade Alga 2' was launched with a separate impulse system.
Polunin received an award from Bitget for being the top-1 trader in the CIS in the long term, based on over 10 months of real personal account performance, not short-term tournaments.
The portfolio is 30% Impulse and 70% ALA. The Impulse strategy is more aggressive and profitable, optimized for longer trends, while ALA is sharpened to take average trend movements.
LongTerm system trades on public copy trading accounts on Bybit and Bitget. On Bybit, there are two accounts: one with standard risk and one with more aggressive risks (X1.2). The Bitget account showed 98% yield in August, and 76% over 8 months with slightly higher risks.
Polunin cautions that stable monthly profits of 30-50-100% do not exist. While super-profitable months can occur, results are unstable from month to month.
Advantages include autonomy, absence of human factor (emotions, stress), and precise strategy implementation. High-quality algorithms, unlike martingale, do not double positions after losses.
For all CEX exchanges, 75-80% of income comes from futures commissions. Many exchanges rank bot networks and martingale strategies because they generate high trading volumes, but these strategies are doomed to failure. Okex is an exception, where users live up to a year, unlike other exchanges.
Polunin concludes that algo trading offers a more sustainable path than manual trading, but warns that the market is full of low-quality products. He emphasizes the importance of verified statistics and realistic expectations, while highlighting the prevalence of martingale strategies on exchanges that prioritize volume over user success.
What is the survival rate of manual traders over a 5-year period in Russia?
Between 1% and 3% (about 12-13 out of 100,000 traders).
01:08
What percentage of products in the algo trading market are considered low-quality or fraudulent?
More than 98%.
02:45
What is the composition of the Nlab portfolio?
10 trading systems, each profitable over more than 6 years, avoiding martingale and grid strategies.
02:45
What is MyBook?
A platform for maintaining and verifying trading statistics, quoted worldwide by funds and companies.
03:42
What is the ratio of Impulse to ALA in the portfolio?
30% Impulse and 70% ALA.
05:44
What is the main difference between the Impulse and ALA strategies?
Impulse is more aggressive and profitable, optimized for longer trends, while ALA is sharpened to take average trend movements.
05:44
What percentage of income for centralized exchanges comes from futures commissions?
75-80%.
08:19
Why do exchanges rank martingale strategies?
Because they generate the maximum trading volume, which increases exchange commission income.
08:48
Stark Survival Statistics
Provides a concrete, sobering statistic (1-3% survival over 5 years) that challenges the viability of manual trading.
01:08High Failure Rate in Algo Products
Highlights that over 98% of algo trading products are low-quality, a crucial warning for potential investors.
02:45Long-Term Award Recognition
Demonstrates the credibility of the speaker's systems through a long-term award from a top exchange, not a short-term tournament.
05:06Realistic Profit Expectations
Cuts through hype by stating that stable monthly profits of 30-100% do not exist, setting realistic expectations for traders.
07:09Exchange Incentives and Martingale
Explains the conflict of interest where exchanges rank strategies that generate volume but are doomed to fail, a key insight for users.
08:19[00:09] speech today will be related to trading. Please raise your hands if you have ever had contact with the futures markets, whether with your hands or not. Raise your hands. There are quite a lot of people, but
[00:23] please raise your hands if you have any experience in face-to-face trading, any really good long-term statistics. see who raised their hand. Excellent. So, today I won't read you
[00:39] poems about risk management, about psychology. From the stage today we will talk about specific trading tools. We will talk about algo trading, about automated trading systems, about the tools that are used in
[00:52] our team. And most importantly, we will look at the statistics on centralized exchanges on trading accounts because I think you agree with me that there are a
[01:08] analytical service, I don't know if you know or not. There are such services, like stats, telemeter, do you know how many channels there are on trading and crypto? In Russia, there are more than trading and crypto? In Russia, there are more than 4,000, and out of more than 100,000
[01:20] traders, there are about 12-13 survivors over a 5-year period. I emphasized that over a 5-year period, the percentage is between 1 and 3%. Therefore, if you want to trade manually, you need to think 10 more times whether you need it or not.
[01:36] No more than 20 people in percentage terms. Do you know how much this is? Less than 0%, that is, the survival rate over a real long-term period over a real distance of as a tool for long-term earnings, the risk drops to zero. In fact, this is true. This
[01:53] applies not only to beginners, manual traders. This applies to funds, trading companies, and so on. Let me introduce myself for those who don't know me. My name is Oleg Polunin. I have 8 years in the field of crypto and investments. I am the author of the
[02:07] Market community, this is both a Telegram community and YouTube, and now there are several others. Let's go through the database for those who don't understand why algo trading is, what is algorithmic trading, in principle, these are
[02:21] automated trading systems, the same robots, bots, there are completely different names for this, it's important to understand that this is a separate market. If you haven't heard of it, and if your hands are already itching, go to Yandex, find
[02:33] some code, and follow the link in Telegram. It's better not to do this under any circumstances because this is a separate market, a separate sector in the financial markets, in which, like in any other market, be it the Gardener market in Moscow, or
[02:45] the crypto market and any of its areas, more than 98% of the products are complete crap. fraud, simply low-quality products. Nlab is a portfolio strategy that includes 10 trading systems, each of which is profitable. Over a distance of more than 6 years,
[03:00] that you can see in most algorithms, such as Marl GE and grid strategies. Similar strategies can even be found in most copy trading sections on all centralized exchanges except one exchange. Perhaps I'll
[03:15] mention this later. The flagship algorithm includes seven trend strategies and three impulse and on this slide you can see the track of the statistics of the algorithms and Impulse with MyBook for 6 years taking into account compound interest,
[03:29] they emphasize this taking into account compound interest, there is no need to build any fantasies there, intergalactic And what is MyBook I think that most people sitting in the room do not know, we can check, raise your hand Who knows what a
[03:42] check, raise your hand Who knows what a minority is, this is a platform for maintaining statistics on which statistics can be verified, there may be unverified statistics, I will not talk about all these checkboxes But can you
[03:54] generally find this information, this whole herd is in the public field, in general, this is a platform for statistics that is quoted all over the world and by funds and companies when any trader or developer, again in crypto,
[04:06] most people do not know this because they really do not go deep and do not have colossal experience in the market. I myself only in the fifth year of my presence in the market found out what it is and why it is needed at all, which means a
[04:21] platform for maintaining statistics, also for more than 9 months, these systems and another leverage system is connected to the public on my closed accounts for the root, I also can’t help but It should be noted that literally 2 weeks ago, from the Bitget exchange,
[04:37] which is one of the top 5 exchanges in the world, of which I am a partner, Bitget today with a stand, as usual, with some kind of competitions, they work correctly, attract attention, and on the Bitget exchange, this account Polunin Trade
[04:50] Alga 2 was launched with a separate impulse system standing on a separate account because in copy trading on the public, we have a combination of two algorithms there is weak and 30% impulse, I will talk about this soon and officially. From the exchange, we received
[05:06] and officially. From the exchange, we received the award for top-1 trader in the CIS in the long term, I emphasize, not in any short-term tournament, crazy deals within a month. What can be, agree? Yes, a random result. And for more than
[05:20] 10 months on a real personal account with normal capital not for 100 bucks. That's how things are in the CIS, traders have not yet taken similar ones, except if we do
[05:32] not talk about victories within the framework of the tournament. Applause, flagship algorithm isub consists of seven trend and three impulse
[05:44] trading strategies and is sharpened to take average trend movements. For comparison, the Impulse strategy is optimized for processing longer trends, but is more aggressive and more profitable than ALA. During long-term
[05:57] analysis and testing, it was decided to combine the ISE Impulse strategy into a longs system portfolio. The composition of this portfolio, as I already said, is 30% Impulse and portfolio, as I already said, is 30% Impulse and 70% ALA. And what it is, you can
[06:10] see by going to my community there. There will be a QR code at the end. All this is available via a public link. Any of you can go to a centralized exchange. At the moment, we have LongTerm - a system that conducts trading on
[06:23] public copy trading accounts. This is the Bybit exchange. This is the Bitget exchange on Babbit. We have two accounts, one with a standard risk, the other with risks of X1 and X8 x1.2. We call it with more aggressive risks. So, one account is on the Bitget exchange. Yes,
[06:38] here you can see the track of the yield curve, the maximum yield, that is, this point. This was August. Here it was 98%. Now we are in a drawdown from the extreme High and at the time of this screenshot Well, the situation hasn't changed a week
[06:53] or two ago, we took this screenshot, for 8 months, we made 76 pro to the account. Well, these are the risks X and a half from standard, these are not standard risks, the risks are slightly higher, but overstated, absolutely not cosmically, that is, this is the
[07:09] result that you can really make on trading there 30 50 100% per month and more if you believe in such numbers if we are talking about a monthly stable from month to month, this result, of course, does not exist, everyone who
[07:22] tells you about this are storytellers. Although there may be months of super profitability, there may be, of course, such months. But it is unstable from month to month, as I already said, has been used for more than 7 months on my public accounts. In general, I said this, then the next slide is the
[07:38] pros and cons of Aldin. Pros are autonomy, the second is connected with the first, this is the absence of the human factor, emotions, stress, gray hair and
[07:50] all sorts of other manifestations, which means negative emotions, three, this is the implementation of the Strategy, because a third is also connected, in order to add this point that Normal, high-quality algorithms, not martingale,
[08:04] opens the next one twice as much. Validity generates very good trading volume for exchanges due to inflated risks and these strategies. These copy trading accounts are what you see on most centralized exchanges. Except for Okex,
[08:19] this is the only exchange that is not ranked. All sorts of crap in their boosting large trading volumes. For those who are not in the know, I will say, and maybe this new information will be that for all CS exchanges, 75-80% of income is
[08:35] income from commissions on futures. Therefore, most exchanges accumulate ratings not just in the top 3. Guys, the top 10 and top 20 are all full of top 10 and top 20 are all full of bot networks. And
[08:48] martingale, where you can raise 100% or even 200% profit in a month or two. But these strategies are always doomed to failure and are ranked by exchanges because they generate the maximum volume, and most users don't care.
[09:03] Oxe is not the same as VS. That's why users on Oxe live up to a That's why users on Oxe live up to a year, unlike all other exchanges. Nika doesn't praise all exchanges; any of them can suck. That's why it's like that.
[09:15] of them can suck. That's why it's like that.
⚡ Saved you 0h 09m reading this? Transcribe any YouTube video for free — no signup needed.