The Over/Under Betting Strategy That Actually Works

[00:00] this over under betting strategy is one of the  easiest ways to profit from football why because   74% of major league matches have at least one  goal in the second half in this video I'll break   it down into three simple steps so that anyone  can follow backed up by a real world example to  

[00:16] show you how it works you'll learn how to reduce  risk maximize returns and build a strategy that   delivers long-term profitable results over time  so let's dive straight into step one because  

[00:28] preparation makes everything that follows easier  so let's explore how to do it properly first of   all we need to look for matches where teams have a  history of scoring particularly in the second half   now think about it how many games have you seen  that explode into life after halim that's exactly  

[00:45] what we're looking for here now there are multiple  places to do it but tools like soccer stats list   performance statistics for goals in each half  so finding a team with 70% or higher second half  

[00:57] scoring rate in their last 10 matches is sign  ific because it's exactly the kind of pattern   that we want to find as you'll see in the example  in just a second you can find them by selecting   the relevant League season and then the halftime  stats now next we need to identify matches that  

[01:14] are likely to start cautiously games with high  stakes often see less action in the first half   for example crucial league matches Cup finals  and relegation battles nearly always start slow   before opening up in the second half no doubt  you'll have probably seen that happen in the  

[01:28] past two motivation for go goals is a critical  Factor ask yourself why do teams want to score   is there a lot at stake or are they fighting just  to avoid that relegation a mid-table clash might   lack urgency but when a team has something to gain  or lose their playing style often reflects it and  

[01:45] changes in the second half now we want to aim for  matches where one to two goals are likely because   that is The Sweet Spot teams with a strong  defense and decent attacking potential create   the kind of balance this strategy thrives on as  you'll see in the next step a little preparation  

[02:01] goes a long way but don't be too rigid we need  some flexibility for when it comes to placing   our first bet and watching the match the example  in step two will highlight what I mean so one of   the biggest advantages with this strategy is the  control you have over when you place a bet think  

[02:17] of it like a boxing match where you don't have to  step into the ring until your opponent is already   on their knees because we're only going to bet if  the game aligns with the previous steps research   which is exactly what we're going to do here with  this example on the screen now but it's only one  

[02:34] part of the equation because we need to get a  great price value bets are crucial which is why   I'd recommend using sharpex Exchange with low  commission and best prices is the best deal on   offer but makers like bet 365 Factor big margins  into their prices to make money whereas betting  

[02:51] exchanges have no margin at all instead winners  pay a small Commission on profits now if the   first half is unfolding as expected with both  teams playing cautiously it's time to take the   next step here's what we do at halim or early in  the second half we place a lay bet on the under  

[03:09] 1.5 goals line for clarity we're betting against  there being 1.5 goals here ideally the exchanges   betting odds will be between 1.4 and 1.6 for  this bet this odd range minimizes the financial  

[03:22] downside whilst providing a strong upside why  because at Short odds a 50% loss only represents   25% of the potential upside for example a Labette  with a stake of 100 at 1.5 means that the maximum  

[03:37] liability is 50 so a 50% loss is just 25 however  the maximum profit on this situation is of course   100 it's a calculated trade-off for what's about  to follow in just a moment in this example between  

[03:51] West Ham and Crystal Palace the lay bet would be  placed at a price of 1.56 so 100 lay stake would   mean a maximum liability of 56 now both teams  failed to score in the first half although pretty  

[04:05] much analysis coupled with what was actually  happening on the pitch suggested that there's   likely to be a goal later on so at this stage  we've created a low-risk bet and set ourselves   up for some success but this is just the beginning  because step three is where the betting strategy  

[04:21] really comes interested now that we've placed  our opening bet it's time to monitor the match   and React to what actually unfolds and this is the  most exciting part of the betting strategy because   there are four options that can play out each of  them offer a chance to manage risk and maximize  

[04:37] returns so let's go through each of them one at a  time with the example to help explain so imagine   the game is still at nil nil by the 70th minute  and play is still actually quite dull now at this  

[04:51] point the odds for the under 1.5 goals would have  dropped significantly it's the worst case scenario   and although unlikely we need to minimize the  financial pain so once the odds drop to around   50% of our opening bets price we cash out for a  partial loss for example that would mean a price  

[05:09] of 1.28 it means we lose 50% of our lay BET's  liability but remember because we entered at sh   OD it only represents 25% of the first BET's  potential upside for clarity this means that  

[05:21] option one's potential loss is just 28 quid the  key here is discipline we must avoid temptation   to let it run if the game isn't line in with  expectations it's better to cut the losses and   move on to the next one where an enhanced profit  is waiting which leads me on to option number two  

[05:38] now let's say there's a goal at the 48th minute  and there actually was in this example the better   odds for the under 1.5 goals Market will naturally  shoot up as you can see on the chart on screen   there are several options depending on how you  want to play it but this option is to immediately  

[05:54] cash out and lock in a profit at the available  price it depends on how far into the match we are   but the chances are that the odds will double at  this point giving us a 50% profit on our lay bet   stake which is 100% of the potential liability  at risk in the example case 56 quid this is the  

[06:12] safest and simplest way to secure a win but  option three is a little bit different we've   got the upper hand here on the market but don't  want to miss out on the sizeable a win so we can   eliminate all liability by placing the back bet on  the under 1.5 gos Market at the new price of 3. 45  

[06:30] for 2285 this guarantees no loss and provides us  with a risk-free bet on there being another goal   if the game ends with just one goal you break even  with no loss and no profit however if there is a  

[06:43] second goal you secure that chunkier profit  given the prices in our example the potential   upside would be 7715 if another goal goes in  for those who strongly believe there's another   goal coming it minimizes the downside if they're  wrong lastly there's option four and it's the most  

[06:59] favorable option for many so you let the BET run  in the anticipation of there being another goal   for maximum return your entire lay stake but  with the twist in our examples case this would  

[07:11] obviously mean that total stake of 100 as profit  however as the game plays out the under 1.5 goals   Market will gradually start to tick back down to  Shorter odds because a second goal has not yet  

[07:23] been scored now if the second goal goes in then  great we've banked that maximum win of 100 00 but   if the second goal doesn't come we monitor the Imp  play betting nods until they reach our original  

[07:35] lay bets entry price where we can cash out for  no loss at all because of course we're backing   to the same lay ODS and for the same stake exactly  the same price now in our examples case this would  

[07:47] have been the final outcome in the 78th minute  as you can see here on the screen by following   the structured approach we limit your downside but  maximize your potential upside and stay in control  

[07:59] similar is the betting strategy here in the end  screen for both teams to the score markets they're   another great way of profiting from football  so thanks for watching I'll see you next time