Ben & Marc: Why Everything Is About to Get 10x Bigger

[00:01] including Elon Musk, is the real world is just really, really big and really, Because from a technology perspective, it feels like you can build products >> Our entire way of doing everything as

[00:14] humans, we think it's going to change. We reinvented the computer and the new computer is far better than the one that we have been building on for the last 50 dominant venture brand was precisely to be able to have the companies be able to

[00:28] in their development so that the companies can kind of use our force in build their own force. >> You cannot join the firm unless you you had to pick a thing, what are you

[00:40] compounding? >> Reputation. [music] McCormack, who just wrote an excellent profile of AS6 and Z. Py, thanks for >> Thanks for having me. Kathy, I want to start by saying thank you for the

[00:54] incredible. Like absolutely incredible. So we we we just like really appreciate it because that that was a big one. >> Thank you. I I mean I I appreciate being able to tell this story. It's such a cool one and and uh appreciate you know

[01:08] >> Everybody welcome to the Ben and Mark show first of 2026 and we're now getting into how the media ecosystem has uh has changed. We we talked about this great great uh TAD friend profile in the New Yorker in 2015 that I referenced in the

[01:21] piece that that I wrote on A16Z uh this past week saying that that kind of kicked off or was the last kind of point in an era where uh journalism cared a better job kind of summarizing what happened over the past decade. Now we're

[01:35] asking, you know, to what extent Mark thinks that he and kind of a few people who stood up against this actually kind of shifted back to this anarchctic or liberated uh view of of the press or relationship with the media that we have

[01:49] >> Yeah. And I was just saying I think you could describe what's happening kind of environment being, you know, you could use kind of three words. You could say You could say anarchctic is the negative word. You could say liberated is the

[02:01] freedom of speech, freedom of thought, you know, and I say at least in the US, then, you know, we can talk about what what what what other countries are we're clearly entering a much more free speech world. Um, so I just start by

[02:15] should claim any moral heroism at all here at like at all because you know I version of my own story going all the way back to [laughter] I turned one of my claims to I turned down the opportunity um at the time in

[02:28] browser um you know which would have been a completely different uh and uh So I I don't know maybe I get a little bit of credit for that but you know I kind of on the same ride as everybody else and you know we you know we we you

[02:42] 2007 so I kind of went through the entire kind of crazy roller coaster that last decade and then you know we've been involved in in you know lots of these was an angel investor in Twitter um angel investor in LinkedIn you know they

[02:56] they both you know became kind of key parts of the censorship machine um at claim like huge moral heroism um I do Elon's purchase of of Twitter, you know, obviously was like a a gigantic turning

[03:09] point. Um I also want to give just like enormous credit to the Substack guys. Um because we were the original investor and we're the largest outside investor in Substack and and you know, I think they they did a really really great job

[03:21] under and I would tell you under enormous pressure um uh you know, enormous pressure um uh you know, especially a very consistent and totally >> Yeah, that's right. And they they got I if you know I don't know if people

[03:33] remember this or not but I mean they got they got really lit up um you know by by by a lot of the sort of you know anti- speech forces for you know I mean the standard accusations um of of of just being absolutely horrible. Um, and yeah,

[03:46] the whole time. And then they, you know, you know, at least with Elon acts like wants to go to war with like, you know, somebody who's like trying to get him to kind of force, you know, public, visible and forceful way. You know, the

[03:59] you know, a younger company. Um, and so they they don't have that level of kind Um, and so they they have the harder version of the challenge and they they fights, including, you know, fights that aren't even public. um you know to to to

[04:12] high integrity. >> It's a I think a good place to kind of talk about a bunch of the themes that that we covered in the in the piece. One investment. I remember at the time I was on Substack my career was starting

[04:25] because of Substack and I still at the time thought it was kind of a crazy investment. Were you thinking about it from the perspective of this is going to that is good for the future. Is it a mix of the two of those things? And then to

[04:38] what extent have you allowed Substack to fight that fight by being on their side if you weren't there? >> Yeah. So we say we you know we never social or political reasons like so the you know the goal the goal obviously

[04:51] always is as as as sort of fiduciaries is to to generate returns and so you know in the in the in in the main business and so we you know we we we the company that we invest in you know has the opportunity to become what we

[05:03] know in the industry and an important force in the world. Um and you know I substack of the time and you know we we believe that more than ever today. So so I you know I you know I think this is kind of the magic in in a lot of what we

[05:17] I think the companies in many not in every case but in many cases the of themselves also become the most successful businesses. Um and and I that and and and Substack is actually a very very very good example of that

[05:31] successful then it's making itself successful right and so it's it's got alignment of interest between it success and it and its writer success and then are successful kind of by definition you know those that you know those writers

[05:45] reader you know readers are successful they're getting what they want. Um and were sort of a bunch of reasons we invested in Substack. Um, you know, one love with, you know, with the guys. Um, and, you know, you probably know the

[05:58] So, that that was the that was the easy part. Um, and then, you know, look, I been around, you know, you know, the web kind of golden age of blogging, you know, was kind of this kind of very, you

[06:11] know, special time. Um and you know you know and and and blogging really you no single company that kind of got full credit for it or something but you know blogging created an enormous amount of intellectual content you know uh that

[06:25] exist otherwise. Um, and then it it just, you know, blogging kind of just because there was no single company behind it. But, you know, one one of the just very hard for bloggers to make money, right? Um, and so, you know, the

[06:39] but we're, you know, we solve the economic model. People are ready to pay now for content. Um, and this makes sense. And then, you know, there was can you really see, you know, the internet's a wash with content. People

[06:52] are they really gonna you know you have to kind of squint and kind of say okay of the stuff that they're getting today and I think the thing that in that case that we were that we had faith in was basically this could be what we call a

[07:04] supply driven market um which is right if you provide the modernization capability um then you're going to bring into existence writers and content that don't exist today um and that is going to create new demand that's not visible

[07:16] come back around and it's going to incent so so it was basically a bet that there's like an entire generation of exist because the monetization mechanism doesn't exist. And that's, you know,

[07:28] and his and his partners believe. And and I think that's that's absolutely think it's it's like a great example of founders that like really see a future that doesn't exist yet. And it's it's obvious to them. And unfortunately, in

[07:40] that case, they were able to uh you know, convince us like whenever we come and they sit in our office, they tell us what the future is, and we say, "Yeah, I don't really buy it." [snorts] Right? And then for the next 30 years,

[07:53] know, glorious success of this thing as that future actually develops. And like like to talk about those, but I will say, you know, Substack is Yeah, maybe but they they they fully convinced us. And I'm I'm really thrilled that that

[08:06] that's what's happening. they were kind of ahead of the the kind of change from old media to new media in that you know as the brand moved from the New York Times uh or the Wall Street Journal to the actual writers themselves um

[08:21] Substack was like a massive enabler for that and you know they created this writer which is you know like how many things in the newspaper could anybody write and including AI by the way um and you know how much is like truly like

[08:37] interesting and valuable and they really wanted all the truly interesting and valuable things um to be able to build their people to build their own brands and their own businesses on Substack and that that would that that also turned

[08:49] out to be very true. >> Yeah. And that was where you know Hish really critical on their team you know and and you know he and I had a know are these people ever going to leave their publications? are they ever

[09:01] you know like you know what's Upstack was gearing up it's when in my view the extreme and negative monoculture and so I was like all right you got you know and I'm like well are they really trapped like are they you know are they

[09:14] what you know like are and if and if they if they leave are they going to be their only option to basically put food on the table is to work for a requires them to write a certain way

[09:28] know because they need to pay the bills but he that he he basically said, "I had an independent path, they would take, you know, they would be thrilled themselves out of jail and they would be thrilled to, you know, write about

[09:41] things, you know, from different angles. Um, and and have different takes on basically this, you know, this liberation phenomenon take place, uh, from people where you wouldn't expect it based on the work that they did for, you

[09:53] know, the New York Times or whoever. And and of course, he was 100% right. You can see a world where because it attracts kind of all of the best writers can build their own businesses, Substack becomes 10 times larger than any of the

[10:06] media organizations that it replaces. I I love the the email that you send to to Ali at at data bricks Ben where you talk about the fact that you know the under selling the business and it was going to be 10 times bigger than Oracle.

[10:19] >> I want to understand like the mechanism of that. Like do you think that happens every generation that the new companies are 10 times bigger? Why does that happen? Is it just software? >> Um yeah. So on that one it was actually

[10:33] pretty simple because if you compared the onremise software companies to the cloud software companies. So compare uh people soft to workday or compare uh people soft to workday or compare uh seal software to Salesforce. the cloud

[10:47] version was just 10 times bigger >> and Oracle was kind of the on-remise you know rough rough analog you know things are different um you know data is bigger uh and so forth but if you look

[11:02] at like who was going to be the data kind of provider in the cloud the the provider of technology to manage your data in the cloud it was going to I mean I I was very confident data bricks would win that and so then if you say well

[11:16] what's the market size of that. Um, and and by the way, you know, when I said and by the way, you know, when I said that AI wasn't as big as it is, so I think that uh that's helping my prediction. Um, but you know, like it

[11:28] was just clearly going to be 10 times bigger and I was like, Ali, why are you trying to convince this candidate that you're going to be worth 10 billion? Like that's what are you even talking about? Uh, but you know, Ali is super

[11:41] paranoid. [laughter] Uh, so you know, God bless him. Uh so look you have to know your entrepreneur. I mean I think this is uh you know one of the things that I I think Mark does very well is like you know that advice

[11:59] isn't advice you give to every entrepreneur. It's you know it was very worked well specifically for him. And I think that um you know that's always the case like it's a very psychological game running a

[12:13] company and so you have to kind of tap in to that person's particular psychology to um kind of change the trajectory of of what the company is doing into the right direction. >> Yeah. I'd also add, you know, Pat on the

[12:27] could be like a thousand times the size of the of the existing like content media news industry. Um, the collective, you know, kind of value and and the you're an example of this yourself. Um, so you know, my whole life, so I'm like,

[12:41] grew up, you know, when I was a teen, you know, kid and teenager, you know, television. And it was just this like endless litany of sort of social know, fancy people basically saying, you know, consumers are, you know, basically

[12:55] to sit in front of the boob tube. They just want to like be couch potatoes. You time was Americans watch six hours of TV a day and then you turned on TV and you the vast wasteland of, you know, game shows and [ __ ] Yeah.

[13:09] dystopian kind of thing of just like people are just morons. And then you course you know these you know that kind of moral panic has transferred straight you know of course you know short form videos. Tik Tok um you know people just

[13:24] stupid short form videos and it's just >> cat playing the piano is the original >> Yeah. Exactly. Cat cat videos. By by the way I'm an afficionado of cat videos. I whatsoever. AI cat videos are my current favorite genre of any form of of

[13:37] >> the AIAT videos are very good. [laughter] send I send around a lot of AI cat videos. However, there is an enormous like whatever, you know, for whatever game shows or sitcoms or, you know, soap

[13:50] and there's a giant, you know, mass mass mass mass media uh market for uh for cat videos. But um this goes back to these this idea of supply driven market. There enormous latent demand for actual smart high quality stuff. um and and and

[14:06] every kind of media and and I think the issue the issue is not lack of demand. And I think the issue is lack of supply. Um because like this kind of goes back 101, which is consu people don't know what they want until it's given to them,

[14:19] Macintosh. Nobody ever asked for an iPhone. Like you know, these things had the supply side before the demand materialized. And then the demand of higher than anybody anybody expected. And and I think that that same thing is

[14:33] is exactly true of media. I think a great early existence proof of this was the success of long form podcasting. um you know which is I remember my early it's the strangest thing we've ever seen cuz everybody tells us that the

[14:46] consumers have short attention spans but you know people are literally watching the way to the end of the three-hour podcast and so I view this very much as classic markets that's a barbell which is yeah you have a certain amount of

[14:59] whatever just you know whatever uh you know main you know sort of mainstream whatever uh you know filler whatever on the one side um but you have this high quality content in basically every domain. Um and they're just had you know

[15:13] transformation the the the existing structure of the media company was a structure that was designed for a world of centralized media. Um you need you of course that that you know that's why we're so high on Substack. But yeah when

[15:25] same thing that you were just talking about with data bricks which is like wow this thing could be orders of magnitude orders of magnitude multiples um larger frankly, I think we're starting to see that.

[15:39] >> So implicit in in kind of the fund sizes that you raise is some kind of view on much of the world technology is going to eat over the next decade or so. What

[15:51] does 15 billion say about kind of what the world looks like in a decade and how many substacks there are that are much bigger than whoever they're replacing? >> Well, I think that uh we reinvented the computer. Um so and

[16:05] we reinvented the computer. Um so and the new computer is far better than the one that we have been kind of building on for the last uh 50 or so years. Um well really longer than that but 50 in earnest and

[16:20] you know so there is not I mean we talk about this all the time in the firm there's not a problem that we can think of that you can't that you won't be able to solve with AI. So like almost every problem in the world and you

[16:34] you know, from uh cancer to transport transportation to massive fraud in the US. You just name a problem in the headlines and we're like, "Oh yeah, we headlines and we're like, "Oh yeah, we can solve that." And so, um, it's kind

[16:48] of the reinvention of everything. So, like all our our entire way of doing like all our our entire way of doing everything as humans, uh, we think it's going to change. And so, you know, I would view it as 15 billion

[17:01] to start for us because um there's so much to do and there's so many things know, like some of it is just timing with the entrepreneurs, but we think the number of entrepreneurs is going to multiply as well. Um because the the e

[17:16] kind of the the ease of going from an idea to a really fantastic solution um idea to a really fantastic solution um and a fantastic product is just going to of the things that AI is best at of course is um kind of building stuff uh

[17:33] and uh and so yeah it's just a a very unique time in kind of the history of >> Yeah. Yeah. the the out body experience I have with AI on a regular basis now is about the way Ben does and then I'm like all right how might you apply AI to

[17:47] you know the kind of fraud that we're seeing play out you know any anything need to think and think about how to how to have AI solve this and I'm like well [laughter] right and then I go in there and I'm

[18:02] this and it's like oh well here it's obvious how you would do it and here's take um and then I tell it well you know okay like you know interview me, you my thoughts on them. And then and then it starts, you know, it starts

[18:15] like, okay, now give me your point, you know, and so any it's just like, you to do that with a normal computer in the old days, it' just like stare you, [laughter] right? Like, so like this is really, really, really different. Um,

[18:29] venture lens I would put on this is, um, you know, in terms of the mechanics of of classic, you know, venture capital triangle is is team, product, and and people have always had, you know, different theories over the years of

[18:44] and how they how they interact. But the the the the the thing that basically private investors, the thing that we're all trained to do is basically market for, you know, we're trained to do technology analysis. We're trained to do

[18:58] people. And then we're trained to do market sizing. Like, you know, okay, how big is this market? because you know the the classic adage right is if you if you after a small market you still get a small outcome. Um but there's a

[19:11] you you can actually predict market sizes on these things and and the this presumption that you can predict market sizes based on the dynamics that exist in the market today. Um, but if there's a fundamental change on the

[19:25] fundamental breakthrough, a fundamental capability that doesn't exist yet, you accurately model the market size because you can't you can't see it yet. Like you variables and you you you can't do that. And you know, and then you could call

[19:39] change in the supply side, then all of a sudden the market gets 10 or 100 or thousand times larger. like you you can almost never validate that with math at the time of the investment, but that's the thing that makes the outperformers,

[19:52] you know, really go. Um, and and I just I just think like as as Ben and I kind more and more examples where the mistake that we or others make is, oh, this must be, you know, the market for Uber and Lift must be the market for taxi cabs,

[20:04] Yeah. or or the market for cloud software must be the same as the market for for for on-prem software, right? um uh or or the market >> the market for GPUs must be the market for people who like to play games.

[20:17] example after example after example where the uh significant enough supply side unlocks much larger markets mean think frankly that's going to be like the single like dominant trend in

[20:30] think that's just going to like telescope way out. right? cuz from a technology perspective, it feels like you can build products pretty immediately that are going to win. And then A16Z starts to

[20:42] where it's like all of these other things. It's how do you do go to market? set the conditions for the actual best technology to win as quickly as all the different things that you do there? And is that the right way to

[20:56] technology should win and the platform is there to make sure that that happens? You know, the way we always thought about the firm was um what can a partner

[21:08] do for an entrepreneur that will uh not only help them ensure their success but help them kind of build the company they want to build and the way they want to build it with the people they want to build it with um and the culture that

[21:21] build it with um and the culture that they're proud of. And to do that there there there's many many pieces and a lot of it um you know some of it is just like very fundamental like can you do your business in the United States of

[21:33] America? Can you do it in the world? And so that that that's where the the policy comes in. It's just like a very basic question and looks have a huge interest in technology these days. So like it's a it's a necessary one. Um, a lot of the

[21:47] other things come down to, you know, how do you go from being an inventor to do you go from being an inventor to being a competent CEO and that really uh is a confidence game for for lack of a better word. And that you know, it's

[22:01] very difficult to run an organization when you don't know what you're doing. inventor. and you get tremendous amount of advice and advice that's often extremely bad. Uh and almost the opposite of what you should be doing. Uh

[22:17] who have actually built things don't have time to talk to you. They're often away building things. So you get these like advisors and you know Silicon Valley people uh who tell you how to run your company, who to hire, this and that

[22:31] and the other. Um, and then those things turn out to be wrong and you get into this confidence spiral. And so we, you know, the whole firm is built to put you in a kind of a virtuous confidence cycle as opposed to a vicious confidence

[22:43] as opposed to a vicious confidence cycle. And that means like, oh, I need to call somebody who's hard to get to, like an important CEO or like, you know, I've got to recruit a top-end engineer or I have to um figure out how to market

[22:57] my product or I have to get to somebody uh important in the government. the if I can do that, my confidence builds. If I can't do that, my confidence sinks. And so then, you know, once you're confident, you can make decisions

[23:11] faster. You can uh, you know, build the company more effectively. You can go for confidence that, okay, what I want is the right thing as opposed to what somebody's whispering in my ear, you know, who is uh whatever a CEO coach or

[23:25] a VC or this or that or the other. And so the whole firm is designed to uh kind so the whole firm is designed to uh kind of enable that inventor to become a CEO and and and run their own company and put their mark not just you know locally

[23:40] but in the world uh by being able to kind of network to anyone. And so that's that's a lot of what we're about. macro, you know, kind of outside inland on that is it's just like, you know, we

[23:54] know, super geniuses, but they're specifically they are super geniuses at technologies. Um, you know, to be a super genius at building technologies. sitting in a lab, you know, in front of a screen for, you know, 10 or 20 years.

[24:07] Um, you know, they they just they they have they, you know, these folks are They just haven't they just haven't done it yet. they just they they just haven't people and they haven't dealt with all the issues in the real world and and and

[24:20] recurring you know kind of I would say misimpression sometimes that that the if you build the breakthrough whatever XYZ widget like it's just the world is going to use it it's it's just obviously going to you know kind of sweep things

[24:35] doesn't the answer is the product's not good enough and you know there's there's breakthrough the product you know the more there will just be organic traction what virtually everybody finds, you know, up up to including Elon Musk,

[24:48] the real world is just like really really big and really really messy, billion people out there with like opinions um that are not necessarily,

[25:00] you know, your opinions. Um, and you know, many of them have a real vote as product and with your company, you know, including whether anybody buys, you the X factors that kick in, you know, all the different ways that, you know,

[25:13] know, [ __ ] what you're doing. Um, or or, you know, or maybe even worse than that, you know, just ignore you, right? Um, and so there is this there is this there. It's really complicated. It's really messy. It's not necessarily in

[25:26] favor of new ideas. uh in many cases it really really doesn't like them and are there's real art and science you know to yeah to to Ben's point to and the founder uh to be able to take the breakthrough and be able to take it

[25:40] as far as we can tell, like as far as I can tell, like that that process is getting, you know, hairier and more complicated over time, right? Uh, it's it's actually getting significantly harder. Um, and so, yeah, that's that's

[25:54] built to do is really help founders, you know, work through that. Mark said in the past, which is really true, is like, look, as a as an inventor, you're looking for power, like a power boost. Um, so how do I go from

[26:07] a power boost. Um, so how do I go from little old me with my invention to like in the world. I can build momentum. I can get the best engineers. I can get that that turns into a snowball and I'm

[26:20] rolling downhill. And so the whole firm is designed as like a very powerful is designed as like a very powerful entity that you can just tap into and you know take our brand, take our connections, take our expertise and

[26:33] become extremely powerful very fast. >> Yeah. And by the way, this this this you puzzle that people have had about us for a long time which is wow. It seems like promotional. You know they're they're you know you know they do all this

[26:45] doing all this politics stuff. You know they they must be doing this for ego about, you know, >> talk so much [ __ ] thing. And at least, you know, and maybe maybe maybe it's possible possible we

[26:58] that >> from time to time maybe. However, however, from the beginning, the goal was to build the do the the purpose of precisely to be able to have the companies be able to borrow that at at

[27:14] development so that the companies could could can kind of use use our force in build their own force. Um, and and I think that's worked really well and back in a lot of these things. >> Yeah, I I want to like just squeeze

[27:27] this conversation. Talking too much [ __ ] is so interesting, but I really love I most when I started working with the crypto team was seeing never take the negative in person and like never talk [ __ ] on a technology, never talk [ __ ] on

[27:41] a founder, never talk [ __ ] on a company. Like how do you even train for that? Cuz >> Well, we train for that. >> Yeah, we train for that. So uh we have a >> Yeah, we train for that. So uh we have a culture um that is written culture that

[27:56] culture um that is written culture that you cannot join the firm unless you sign uh a document uh the culture document and says you will adhere to this culture and uh then you must sit through one hour with me uh understanding the

[28:10] culture and fundamentally on that you know our whole point is if you want to do something larger than yourselves and make the world a better place, we are [laughter] Uh, you know, like if in the moment we

[28:27] the idea isn't good enough. It doesn't matter if we invest in you or don't invest in you. Um, we're for that. We are dream builders. We're not dream are dream builders. We're not dream killers. We're not here to be like the

[28:40] analytical smarty pants who makes ourselves look smart by making somebody else look stupid. And that's just that's fundamental to how we think about the fundamental to how we think about the world. Um so like anybody who's trying

[28:53] to push the world forward and make it better like whether we agree with their method or not like we're for it. And so uh you we just ask you to sign up to that idea before you ever join.

[29:07] >> Katherine said that that uh you know we believe in the future and bet the firm number one uh kind of value in the in the culture. By the way, that that that was Mark's um you know, I I did the wording, so I give myself a little

[29:19] credit, but that was Mark's idea. >> Do you think that should be number do practice? Do you think first class business in a first class way is like if is the most important thing in the in the firm?

[29:33] >> Well, look, I mean the culture document is seven things that um you know, and culture is more than seven seven ideas and kind of seven sets of behaviors,

[29:45] but those are the ones that all seven of them that we really expect everybody to live to. Um, so I I I don't know if I rank them in that sense because they all go together. They're part of a single thing. So, um, you know, we believe in

[30:01] the future means that we believe in the people who build the future, which means we're not going to criticize them, which means, you know, we're not going to of that. We're never going to attack the future. We're going to try and make, you

[30:15] going to try and make it the best future we can. We're not going to try and live in the past. Uh, and so that you can't do that if you're attacking entrepreneurs all the time. You can't do that if you show up, you know, an hour

[30:31] to build a company. You can't do those kinds of things. And so every part of the culture, I think, is in support of we want to build a better future. Like that is that's why we're here. >> Haber in his piece firm kind of greater

[30:48] as something that tries to build a compounding competitive advantage and he points to one thing for Apollo, one thing for Goldman. If you had to pick a what is the competitive advantage that you're that you're building over time?

[31:01] Do you think here? >> Reputation. day we started the firm. And and by by the way, there were times when it was like, well, we're investing an awful lot in reputation. Um, [laughter] and you

[31:16] know, it's take a while. Uh, but it is that's what we compete on. Like when we when we talk to an entrepreneur um and they're comparing us to another firm, we they're comparing us to another firm, we say find an entrepreneur that's taken

[31:29] they say. Like that's our answer to everything. Uh we we build reputation. who we touch, we try and touch as many people as we can and we try and um

[31:42] represent in the very very best way possible to build reputation over time. And that compounds and compounds and compounds across uh entrepreneurs, across industries, across sectors, across, you know, everybody from you

[31:54] know people in the government to uh you know people in uh in companies that that we don't invest in um anybody who is anywhere in the world of technology. We

[32:06] want them to know us and we want them to uh think of us as the best uh firm to do >> Yeah. And then that and then that that transfers of course that transfers from companies right so which is the goal of it which is that then as a consequence

[32:21] when a when a company takes investment from us now they they're basically able through the through those those those you know kind of key growth phases with you know with with potential customers and with recruits and with downstream

[32:33] and with you know all all these different you know forces in the external society. Um, so the the reputation pays off not just for us, but what our portfolio companies are able to do as a result.

[32:45] >> So having done this for 16 17 years, like are there things about building and learned that are nonobvious? Cuz to me, like it would almost seem that it's a battery and if you give it to one company that messes it up, then the

[32:57] actually it maybe it's like love to be like super cheap, like it just grows the more you give it. Are there other things like that that that you've learned? Well, look, I I I do think that that's a correct insight in that, you know, one

[33:12] correct insight in that, you know, one mistake is much more powerful than, you know, one good deed. Um, so, you know, one person being obnoxious uh who's in the firm or lying to an entrepreneur or doing something like

[33:27] that is causes much more damage than you can do by doing that correctly. Uh, you can do by doing that correctly. Uh, you know, five or 10 times. Um, which is why you have to be so v vigilant about it. Like you you you can't you cannot

[33:40] tolerate that kind of behavior. [gasps] Um, Um, but I I I think that the the thing the biggest thing that I've learned is it takes a long time to build a reputation.

[33:53] Uh, and but once you do it's it's the most powerful thing. It really does compound. Um, and just to give you an example, look, when Mark and I raised fund one, it was a $300 million fund. Um, I think it took about six months to

[34:09] Um, I think it took about six months to raise. Uh, we had a lot of meetings. I I can't count how many meetings. Um, some people did not treat us very well, as uh Trump might say. They didn't treat me well at all.

[34:23] [laughter] Uh, very badly. Um, and you know, this raise, which was $15 billion, when we actually raised the fund, I think Mark actually raised the fund, I think Mark did one AMA and I did one AMA [laughter]

[34:37] another meeting on this fund raise. Uh, and it was done on the on the and it was done on the on the reputation. And so, um, that's a that's a heck of a change, you know, and look, a lot of not that we don't we talk to

[34:51] our investors all the time. I mean, I've been all around the world uh building relationships and so forth, but when we came to ask for money, uh it was raised entirely on a reputation. >> I think PY, I think the um the external

[35:05] enormously. Um and so you know we've we've lived this you know as you have incredible transformation where tech both is like much much much larger and more central now than it was in 2009 when we started but also you know the

[35:18] the level of let's just say engagement on the on the part of the world tech is everything from you know you know attacks you know criticism you know by questions you know impact on society you know the the the intensity level is you

[35:33] know it's like a thousandx of what it 16 years ago. And so I I think you I think to your question, I think we've we've really tried to kind of rise to that on help these, you know, these companies get to levels of scale that nobody ever

[35:46] deal with pressures that previous >> Yeah. >> You seem like you uniquely maybe with anybody that I know have fun taking, you know, like engaging in these

[35:58] little bit in the piece, but like kind of stepping outside the situation and viewing it. I know like what goes on in your head in these situations like are Does it take a toll every kind of like taking the arrows? What does it feel

[36:10] like in these? >> Yeah, Ben. Yeah. Why don't you Yeah, Ben >> Yeah, I would say it's um I mean it gets

[36:22] because you you know what goes into building these things. Um and you know the intentions of the people building them and you know like the kind of impact they have on the world and then to just

[36:36] get like you know and a lot of them are the attacks tend to be in the form of character assassinations and so forth and now everybody thinks Mark's Jewish you know just so they can attack him more. It turns out people love to attack

[36:51] Jewish people. Um, so I I welcome into him into that. Uh, >> my new name my new name my new name Py is in certain political circles Andy uh is as uh is um Andy Horowitz because people think that people think and and

[37:05] Andre Horowitz is a Jewish person. >> Yeah. >> Yes. >> I didn't have that in my Twitter bio. I did have my Twitter bio. My real name is Andy is Andy Horowitz but and I am

[37:17] Jewish but I I took it down. >> Yeah. But I I I would say mostly it's >> Yeah. But I I I would say mostly it's just like it's an amazing um it's just like an amazing thing, an amazing privilege uh to kind of be in

[37:32] the center of it all. U and you know, look, and then the responsibility that of try and help drive the world to the right answer. Uh,

[37:45] but like it's I don't know if fun is the right word, but like it's special. It's like we've gotten to a very special position and I think you know both of us try and take it as seriously as we can and you look

[37:59] it as seriously as we can and you look things happen and we have very very long discussions about how we should react to certain things um how we should not react to certain things um what we can take a position on what we shouldn't

[38:12] take a position on and you know just to have just to be you know at this stage of life to be able to be talking about that as opposed to um the things that we had to talk about when we were building Netscape or or

[38:25] Opsswware. Like it's it's amazing. Uh and uh you know, I definitely wouldn't and uh you know, I definitely wouldn't trade it. Um and and look, we're so much at this point that like it really it bothers interestingly, which I

[38:40] bothers people inside the firm much more than it bothers Mark or me. for my bar mitzvah. >> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah, the hav Torah. You you need to learn your your hop to tropes.

[38:55] >> Yeah. [snorts] >> How do you avoid at this point becoming a big company? Like this is becoming a big organization. How do you avoid being that like everyone wants to avoid that. How do you actually do that?

[39:08] >> Yeah. So I think a lot of that is organizational design. And I mean it. So if you look at the companies that didn't feel like big companies for a long time, they they had very very very thoughtful designs of the organization.

[39:23] And if you look at the firm um you know the crypto group or the infra group or the um you know the apps group or the American Dynamism group, they they all feel like small companies and they're they're small companies with a kind of

[39:38] very specific kind of support. uh you know in terms of the brand in terms of uh fundraising and other kinds of things. Um but you know the the fundraising team is a small group and so the every and every group is very

[39:53] autonomous from every other group like uh there's integration points but they're they're very simple and so you know for the most part there's some that are more complicated than others. Um, and so, you know, that's what makes it,

[40:08] you know, the the beauty of a of a small place is you can just get it done. The beauty of a big place is you're very powerful. Um, and so we try and kind of blend those two. We took a lot. We Mark and I borrowed a lot. Um, we early on we

[40:23] really studied Huelet Packard. Uh, which the the original Huelet Packard before the computer business kind of swallowed the the company was very much like this. they had uh they were like a series of companies inside a company and and

[40:37] that's a lot how we are. >> How do you vet GPS or like it seems like people that are running the different teams if the whole thing is reputation having these kind of decentralized teams. Is there anything that you do

[40:50] there that's that's unique or or weird uh that ensures that kind of like no one group can infect the whole? Well, I think look, first of all, in order to lead one of those groups, you just have to have been here and

[41:05] performed for a long time. So, that that that's kind of the first thing. So, we we're not interviewing people for that job from the outside. Like, you can't job from the outside. Like, you can't get that job from the outside. And then,

[41:19] you know, I I would say because our culture is so different than other venture firms, you know, for for better or worse, we're just different that we don't hire a lot of outside GPS anymore. We generally try to hire people at an

[41:37] earlier stage of their career and kind of grow them into what we do. Um, and that's worked much much better for us, I would say, in general. Although we have like all of us came from the outside at one point of the original cast.

[41:51] >> That makes sense. Um kind of winding down here, but Mark, you point for saying the VC was going to be the last job uh in in the world. Uh you know, if you if the vision of the future that you believe is true and this is

[42:06] going to be an institution that that lasts for a century, like what does A16Z look like and do a century from now? >> Right. Yeah. Yeah. So, I start with I believe I was misqued. I I believe it was a it was one of these hypothetical

[42:18] uh thought experiment things that kind of got got overly um extrapolated, but I guess I shouldn't just defend myself. Um so I the point of what I was trying to get across in that discussion um which we you know I think if you pull the

[42:31] discussion on it. I is goes back to what what Ben said early on which is there is mean we we can find examples of it for sure going back 500 years. Um uh is this

[42:44] repeating pattern which is basically a person with a dream um a person with a deep level of domain knowledge um and a dream um operating in a domain with asymmetric payoff um right with with risk and reward where you know by the

[42:58] not be able to do the thing um but if they can do the thing it will it will have disproportionately high returns um you know the traditional institutional you know places people go to get support and funding you know for the dream you

[43:11] know for for for for new projects just turn it down because you know a bank can't finance you know a bank a bank can't issue a loan against something and 50% chance of failure like a bank just can't underwrite that so a bank

[43:24] won't do that big companies you know for the most part won't do that um uh you know almost nobody will do that um but somebody has a dream and and then you if you can construct a portfolio of those dreams and of those people you

[43:36] know then the expected you know value on that is is going to be very high like like that's a very special thing. Um I I've had long conversations with Tyler thoughtful on this and he has a term forget the exact term they use but it's

[43:49] like it's it's like some combination talent picker project picker um and it's were talking about earlier about market size it's this thing where like there is but there's also like an art to it and

[44:02] because you're you're dealing with human beings at a very kind of primordial very early in the process of doing something that hasn't been done before. Um, and you know, quite honestly, like, you know, an early example of this was,

[44:14] Christopher Columbus, right? Um, and I I was just like I was just I was trying to picture the pitch, right? You know, Christopher Columbus rolls in, right? know, here's, you know, I'm going to find a new rout, you know, route to

[44:27] like a I don't know, whatever 50 60% chance that, you know, you'll never hear know, you know, maybe maybe I've, you know, died 2,000 miles away from Spain. ran away with money. It's not like they had Interpol in those days.

[44:41] >> Um and I'm going to go do that. And then and then by the way, the fact that that bet paid off, but like that that like it >> the whole idea was wrong. I mean, the whole idea was wrong. He discovered a completely different

[44:53] that he had discovered a completely different continent. Spain was the main beneficiary of that in the long run, right? Like and so like but like you know like she funded it and like wow, right?

[45:05] >> And then there's there's >> Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Yes, they they did similar story by the way the Puritans have a you know the Plymouth Rock that whole thing the Mayflower they have a very similar story uh to that it took I

[45:18] to be able to make the uh make the Mayflower expedition um and they needed you know we always talk now about in venture industry you know the whaling industry 400 years ago um you know operated in a very similar way the the

[45:31] way the book publishing industry has always worked this way by the way political campaigns worked this way that you know any any any new you know future somebody bets on them. And so there there's there's this intangible that has

[45:44] to do with making making these longdated bets with very uncertain outcomes and with high failure rates. And I mean like if yes, like I think what I said in the I'm going to like I'm going to hit the

[45:56] beach and like it's all good. Um but you know, uh like I guess maybe makes a falling flame. See, Ben, what you think of this? The intangibles seem to be important over time. um it seems to be becoming more like an art and less like

[46:10] that? >> I I definitely think that's right >> I I definitely think that's right because uh history um is a bad guide. Uh so you can't like the the the interesting thing about VC for me

[46:23] probably the biggest lesson is you got to be very careful about a highly trained neural net. Um because that's when you make the mistakes because things change and I would say things have changed more rapidly. Like the

[46:35] thing that we never thought would ever ever ever go away is a mythical man month. Um you know nine women can't have a baby in a month. Well with AI you can um you know with >> software

[46:49] >> It's a metaphor for software. Yes. Exactly. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Uh so in the old days, right, like no matter how many engineers you put on a team, you actually slow down the project as opposed to speed it up. But now uh so

[47:04] you couldn't throw money at a problem. You couldn't throw money at somebody's technological lead. You'd have to do something different. Um now you can throw money at it. Uh you know, Elon did an amazing job of throwing money um at

[47:17] the foundation model problem and he caught up very very fast. And that's our industry could never have happened before. So if you had asked an AI if Elon had any prayer of catching um open AI or anthropic, they would have said no

[47:33] way. Uh and so that's where you're getting into um I mean maybe if the AI was smart enough, I suppose, but like the there are these a lot of it has to the person? >> Yeah. And then and then the other part

[47:48] you know, the investment is just the beginning, right? And it's the long and company take over time and all the different ways that we you know, we try to try try to help them succeed. And so I I think that yeah, I yeah, if yes, I I

[48:01] Um but maybe we'll figure it out. >> Yeah, you could imagine an AI who could at a human about every single thing, including human psychology, then certainly could be. you're you're you're tasked with training this AI. Like what

[48:17] this art that you can put into words? Like if it is, and this is the most think of, the tools are getting better, but the human piece really really matters. Like what have you learned about the art that you can that you can

[48:29] in a Christopher Columbus? >> Well, I mean, I think that um the first thing and I you know, I hesitate to to name things in in some sense because they're all so different, right? like Elon is really not at all like uh Mark

[48:43] Zuckerberg, who's not at all like Ali Goce, who's not like at all like Brian Chesky. So like they're all different. Um and the but the things that they all do I I would say is um they all think for

[49:00] the room and try and like figure out what people want them to do. They they they have original ideas. So original idea is probably the thing that every great entrepreneur has their original thinkers. Um

[49:15] thinkers. Um and then you know they they all also and then you know they they all also have some combination of enough charisma. They're interesting enough um that people want to follow them. Um

[49:30] because you know ultimately you you kind of need people to go okay that is the leader and that's somebody who I want to work with work for and so forth. Uh so that's those are the things that I would say almost all of them have and then and

[49:45] I think all of them have those to be great. Uh but everything else I know like Steve Jobs is a very different kind of guy. Um they're all they're all different I would say very like Steve Jo is nothing like Andy Grove like nothing

[50:00] uh but you know they're both great. >> To close us out I guess from from each of you what is the thing that you're personally most excited about in the next kind of couple of years of A16Z but just tech more broadly. Well, I mean I

[50:13] mean you know you Mark Mark had a great line like well this is on the order of like the steam engine or electricity or like like this is such a big invention um that we're going to end up in a different world and the thing that's

[50:27] different world and the thing that's most exciting to me about it is you know I wouldn't want to live in the pre-electricity world. Um like I like this world way way way better. And so I think that like odds are we're going to

[50:40] get to a world that's just way way better than we can even like we can't even get our heads around it, which is why it freaks people out. Like all these stuff that we have to do and so forth that we've just learned to live with

[50:53] that sucks um isn't going to be required anymore. And so like you know what does that mean? What do we think of then? Like what does life become? It could be Like what does life become? It could be uh you know super exciting. Now the one

[51:07] up is you know if that takes us too far away like one of the you know too far away from some grounded purpose uh about um

[51:21] you know and beliefs uh and spirituality then you know you can attach on to some dumb stuff. Uh, so you know that that that would be actually my only worry. But I think life just the quality of life for everybody is about to get like

[51:34] way way better than it's ever been. >> I'm excited about the Zoomers. >> I'm excited about the Zoomers. >> I with a I was with a a founder a founder team the other day. Um, and I was who

[51:48] them, you know, why the Zoomers are so much better than the millennials and why is so great. And of course they're just like staring at me like I'm speaking you know they exper you know they just think like millennials are like old

[52:01] touch. >> Um and of course you know us Ben and I are geners. We might as well be you know stone age. Um and I was like but I was about the zoomers like they just like they're they're it's the it's the post I

[52:15] would describe it as 2015 to 2024 was just it was a very very strange period. Uh and a lot of just things got really weird. Um, and the Zoomers are the generation that basically was on the receiving end of that. And I they're at

[52:29] with, like they're just not having it. Um, and they're not walking around time. They're not feeling like they have to like deny that they want to be any of the moral, you know, kind of hair short stuff. Um, they're just like

[52:42] they're they're if anything is like that, too. Gen X kind of let go of all that, too. Gen X kind of let go of all the craziness of the 60s and early 70s. Right. Exactly. Gen X was the reaction of the boomers in the same way the

[52:54] Um and so the the the Zoomer founders that we get to deal with I my view is the best, most competent, most capable. By the way, they're just like incredibly well trained and educated because they grew up online. You know, they've seen,

[53:09] videos from all the great, you know, people in tech talking about how to do much more than previous generations of founders did. Um and you know, they're native. um you know they all you know basically learned AI from scratch and

[53:22] coming out and they they totally understand it. Um and so and they're just like tremendously fired up and like completely you know completely you know they're they're going to build something they're going to build something great

[53:35] about it. Uh they're very forceful. They're very determined. Um yeah I I I waiting this Eric and Ben will tell you I've been waiting for this for >> for a long time. We may have to edit this out, but one of the things I do

[53:50] really like about the Zoomers, I haven't ever heard anybody say anything like, [laughter] Like, you should never [ __ ] say that [ __ ] >> Sense of humor, too. They're funny. >> Yes. Yes. They're extremely funny. Well,

[54:05] on the receiving end of just a tremendous amount of [ __ ] and and they're just like they're just not having it. Um, and so it's just I find be able to work with them. And if if I if I had total control over my time, it

[54:18] would be 100% spent with Zoomer. >> Well, I appreciate you spending an hour fun. Thank you for letting me write about uh about a 16Z and and thanks for >> We're we're talking about all your future guests.

[54:32] >> Exactly. Becky, this was an excellent piece. Thank you so much for writing. piece. Thank you so much for writing. >> Yeah. My pleasure. 100%. Okay.