Bitcoin's $75.5K Crossroads: Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] As the rally in Bitcoin finally run its course, are we headed back to new lows on Bitcoin

[00:17] for this bear market? I'm going to deep dive into everything after the Clarity Act procedural vote failed, basically slamming the door, a close on the Clarity Act for the remainder of the year.

[00:30] My name is Garrett Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here at VerifiedInvesting.com, and we're going to deep dive into the data and charts today on Bitcoin as well as some altcoins.

[00:42] All right, so before we get into that, folks, just a reminder here on my YouTube at Garrett Soloway Pro Trader, I have Garrett's Top Squad live Q&As almost every week, exclusive

[00:54] videos every week, epic discounts for verified investing, and also swing trade alert posts. When I see a great chart set up, I post it up on the post board for exclusive access

[01:08] only to Garrett's Top Squad here on YouTube. All right, so that's where we are right now. Let's get right into the action. So today is obviously a big day, right? What do we have today? We have the Federal Reserve coming out here, and they will be reporting in just a little while talking about whether or not we're giving us the heads up, whether or not they're going to be raising rates by 25 basis points.

[01:31] Now, odds favor a strong position that they will raise 92.7% chance they will raise by 25 basis points. That's the camp I'm in. I'm a probability trader, so therefore I have to go with the probability.

[01:45] Now, the big question is, number one, is this factored in? To answer that, yes, a 25 basis point hike is factored in. Number two, what is Kevin Walsh going to say about future hikes?

[01:59] The best thing he could do is stay relatively hawkish and say he's data dependent. If he does that, I think the 10-year actually starts to fall. I explained this yesterday in a video. It gives credence that the Fed is not basically a stooge of the president and of the politicians.

[02:17] It shows the backbone that they're willing to raise when they need to, and that will give confidence in the debt buyers of the United States, people that are buying our treasuries or countries that are buying our treasuries, and they will likely continue and be willing to take lower interest rates.

[02:33] All right, we're going to dive into the chart here. Before we do that, guys, on Bitcoin, you guys saw it here. We talked about the Clarity Act. The Clarity Act, the procedural vote, failed yesterday. Basically, this means it's not going to get done before the elections, which is really, that was my hope.

[02:48] My hope was that the hope to get crypto-friendly people to vote for the Republicans would push the legislation through before the midterm elections.

[03:00] That did not happen. And really, you have to ask yourself this. now that the election is over, is there any incentive before the next election cycle in years from now to get something like this done?

[03:13] And I don't know, folks. This could be why. I mean, many people were debating on whether or not the bull market had ended in Bitcoin. I said the charts will tell us. Do we make a higher high or not And you know what we did We never made a higher high So right now at least as of now there is a chance that the bear market continues

[03:35] We could even head back down to $66,000, $67,000 and potentially test new cycle lows on Bitcoin. Into the charts we go. Let's take a look here. Here is Bitcoin.

[03:47] So this was that infamous breakout that I called. This is where I had the $5 million long position in crypto. It was an amazing move up on the Bitcoin chart and altcoin.

[03:59] Now, since then, I've kind of gone into a more neutral stance on Bitcoin, right? And the thought process is, yes, we've been consolidating, but notice again, what makes a bull market? Well, on a technical basis, a bull market is denoted by higher lows and higher highs, right?

[04:18] You're making higher highs, you're going up. A chart is going up. Well, what we saw here, and this is something I was watching very, very carefully, is that if you look at the high from the last big rally in Bitcoin, this one right here, if you look at that, the high was right here at around $82,800 and change.

[04:39] This high never took that out. You can clearly see it is lower than this high right here. And so at this point, on a purely technical term, the bear market is still intact.

[04:54] We have not made a higher high. Now, having said that, what am I watching closely? So what I've shown you guys here is that we are very closely watching as technicians this area of technical support, right?

[05:09] So we draw this zone right through here, okay? So again, you have this dip, then we bounce up, then we came down, we touched the high end of that, we bounced up, we came down, we touched it again, we bounced up, and then now we're touching the low end, the lowest point right here.

[05:27] We've even pierced it. But what I said to you guys is this low is the line in the sand. And what level is that at? I'll punch it in right here, 75,500. So this level, on a daily closing basis, you do not want Bitcoin to close below $75,500.

[05:46] Now, where's Bitcoin right now? $75,550. Isn't that remarkable? So we are right on the cusp. Now, we were below this intraday, but so far, buyers have stepped up to keep it and push it back above.

[06:01] In other words, those that are bullish on Bitcoin out there are trying with all their might to keep this level as support. If this level goes, then any chance of a bull flag formation, which is what's currently in the charts,

[06:15] and a chance that we move up and make a higher high on Bitcoin, that goes right out the window. Okay, so really, really important here, guys. You've got to, on a daily closing basis, hold 75.5.

[06:28] this lowest pivot. Just to re-hash again, guys, notice how big bull move off of the breakout, retrace into this level, retrace into this level, retrace into this level, and here we are again.

[06:41] It's got to hold. If this breaks, we're likely going all the way down here at minimum. And I say at minimum because we could go even lower. I'll show you why. So to find the first major

[06:53] support below this level on Bitcoin all you do here very simple you look at your previous when you came down here and bounced came down here and bounced and by the way back when this was happening, I told you guys about this inverse head and shoulders, which had me very bullish.

[07:10] So you combine an inverse head and shoulders with a breakout of a descending long-term trend line, and this is why I was willing to put $5 million on the line on this trade to the upside. All right, So in any case, notice how this high pivot and this high pivot virtually match.

[07:26] That was resistance right here, right? And I'm going to change the color. I want to actually utilize a different color here. Let's do it in white. That was your technical resistance when you were coming up, rejected.

[07:38] Came up, rejected. And then look at once you broke it, it really zoomed higher. So what this tells us is that if this level breaks, this 75.5, then where do we find support? Back here at around or just below $67,000.

[07:55] And so what I'm really telling you guys here is I'm laying the groundwork. Everything you need to know is right here in what I've said in this video on Bitcoin. We're watching $75,500. A close below it, we're likely headed down to $67,000 or just below.

[08:11] And at this point, the bear market is still intact. The Clarity Act is now gone. Not gone, but it is now shelved, likely for a significant amount of time.

[08:23] Now, Bitcoin, frankly, doesn't care about the Clarity Act, but the sentiment within the crypto market is now not as bullish. Less bullish means less buyers of crypto overall and less buyers of Bitcoin.

[08:36] In addition, think about all the buyers that could have come out of the woodwork in this normal, let's say, ECS form, regular investors that invest in stocks, they would have been there and said, oh, well, clearly that's fast.

[08:48] There's more regulation. There's more oversight. I feel better about buying Bitcoin. Not going to happen right now. And so again, there's a small chance that we can still zoom up. We're still holding this level. If you're a bull,

[09:00] you've got to hold the line. Got to hold it. If it holds and we move up, there is still a small chance we can make a higher high, and that would denote that a bottom is in for the bear market.

[09:12] Again, if this level breaks, no bottom, and we're likely headed down in the bear market for the next foreseeable future down to around $67,000 to $66,000. Really remarkable how the charts break it down so clearly for us.

[09:27] I'm fascinated by it. I'll keep you guys in the loop. Now, let's go to ETH. ETH had that beautiful bull flag as well. Look at this, guys. So here was that inverse head and shoulders on ETH. We broke out. Then we bull flagged.

[09:39] Then we had a monster move up. And now look, look at what's happening to ETH here. It is still holding its bull flag as well. It got above, so it did make a higher high. That's the one positive that ETH has that Bitcoin does not,

[09:52] is that it did make a short-term higher high. So that could denote that this is a bottom for this bear on ETH. But in the short term, you've got to hold this line.

[10:04] Now, this is still technically a bull flag, but we need to hold this level. This break, guess where we're going? likely down to Pierce 2000, I would actually buy ETH there.

[10:17] If it comes in, of course I'll be doing it in Smart Money Crypto at Verified Investing where people who are members they see my live account Live account with how many tokens what I in my whole track record transparency They literally in real time you know you get alerts

[10:34] The second I do anything on that, it sends an alert to members. Gareth just bought XYZ, whatever, you know, or just shorted or whatever it does. Very cool. Check it out, guys. $85 a month. It's a no-brainer to be able to see my live account. Plus, you get two exclusive videos in that service every single week.

[10:50] By the way, we're up, I think, about 21% on the million-dollar portfolio this year in a bear market, mind you. And that's not using any of the leverage. No leverage whatsoever.

[11:02] All right. So that's ETH. Let's go to a couple others. I've been playing quite a bit recently in that same service with this. We shorted up here. We made money. Beautiful. Notice the bigger this is. This is Zcash, by the way.

[11:14] Notice this beautiful parallel. I would be interested in shorting Zcash if it gets above $1,300 again. It is not there, but this parallel is massive. Look, pivot low, pivot low, pivot low, and we kissed right here.

[11:27] So we get above $1,300 right up here. I likely will be a short on Zcash. Let's look at hyperliquid, hyperliquid. Not quite as crazy in terms of price action recently.

[11:39] You can see this had a parallel as well. Didn't quite get there in the most recent surge as markets have rolled over. This has rolled over. But again, this is coming in. I'd be a buyer down here. Aside from that, I don't really have a good level on this at this time.

[11:55] Again, going to a couple others, we can take a look at Solana. Solana, folks, this is not great for Solana. This technical support level and this consolidation we've now broken below.

[12:07] Now, all is not lost for Solana, and I'll show you why. Because you have a descending parallel where I actually would consider. So look at this. See this trend line, this white trend line? In fact, let's put it to yellow so it stands out.

[12:20] This trend line right across here, let's extend it out. Boom. Look at the ascending orange. And then look, if we drag this out, and we drag this out and this out, look, right here.

[12:35] So if we get back, this would be an epic buy for me on Solana. And again, we don't know how or when it will get there, but let's just say we go like this, We go like this, and then it comes in here.

[12:47] Oh, my gosh. Descending parallel, boom. Ascending orange and basically a horizontal yellow right here. Coordinated right here.

[13:00] That would be my buy right around 84 on Solana. I would be a heavy buyer there myself. I love that level. In fact, I absolutely love it. Now, listen, a lot of things have to go right for us to get in there,

[13:12] but this is the gaming ship. This is how the best traders in the world, they know that the level actually, if it all plays out that way, maybe has a 10% chance of coming in perfectly to that level.

[13:24] But as a top elite trader and investor, I need to know that ahead of time. I can't be like not seeing that level. I need to know my levels where the factors align so I can maximize my opportunities and catch as many of my high probability levels as possible to make as much money as possible.

[13:43] All right, guys, I'm going to get going. Thank you so much for tuning in. I'll keep you guys posted. Take care.