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Crypto 2026 Predictions: ETFs, Stablecoins, and Market Outlook

0h 19m video Published Jan 2, 2026 Transcribed Jul 12, 2026 D Descentralizados Crypto
Intermediate 5 min read For: Crypto investors and enthusiasts interested in market trends, regulatory developments, and 2026 predictions.
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AI Summary

The video discusses key factors shaping the crypto market in 2026, including a decreasing probability of a US government shutdown, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman by Trump, and the Clarity Act. It highlights the growth of stablecoins, the surge in crypto ETFs, and the potential for Ethereum and Solana to benefit from regulatory clarity. The analysis also covers the breakdown of the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle and the importance of being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

[00:02]
US Government Shutdown Probability Decreasing

The probability of a US government shutdown has fallen from 38% in mid-December to around 26%, which is positive for crypto as shutdowns reduce liquidity.

[02:23]
New Fed Chairman Appointment in January

Trump will announce the next Fed president in January, likely favoring lower interest rates and increased liquidity, which is bullish for crypto.

[04:28]
Stablecoin Market Cap Growth

Stablecoin market cap grew from $205B to nearly $300B in 2025, expected to reach $500B by end of 2026, indicating migration of traditional liquidity to crypto.

[08:08]
Over 100 Crypto ETFs Expected in US

Bitwise predicts more than 100 cryptocurrency ETFs will launch in the US in 2026, following new SEC listing standards, driving institutional demand.

[09:09]
ETFs to Absorb Over 100% of New Supply

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs are expected to buy more than 100% of new supply in 2026: 2x for Bitcoin, 2.6x for Ethereum, 1.5x for Solana.

[11:42]
Ethereum and Solana as Main Beneficiaries

Regulatory clarity and stablecoin inflows will primarily benefit Ethereum and Solana, as they are the largest DeFi infrastructures.

[12:26]
Real-World Assets (RWAs) Top Narrative in 2025

RWAs generated 185% average returns in 2025, outperforming Layer 1 (80%) and other narratives, with Ethereum hosting over 75% of tokenized commodities.

[15:55]
Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle May Be Breaking

For the first time, the third year of the cycle (2025) is negative, breaking the pattern of three positive years followed by a bear year. Uncertainty surrounds 2026.

The crypto market in 2026 is poised for significant developments with regulatory clarity, ETF expansion, and stablecoin growth, but the breakdown of the traditional Bitcoin cycle introduces uncertainty. Investors should prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

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"Title accurately reflects the video's focus on crypto predictions and opportunities for 2026, though it's slightly hyped."

Mentioned in this Video

Study Flashcards (10)

What was the probability of a US government shutdown in mid-December and what is it now?

easy Click to reveal answer

38% in mid-December, now around 26%.

01:08

Who will appoint the new Fed chairman in January 2026?

easy Click to reveal answer

Donald Trump.

02:23

What is the expected stablecoin market cap by end of 2026?

medium Click to reveal answer

$500 billion.

04:55

How many crypto ETFs are predicted to launch in the US in 2026?

medium Click to reveal answer

More than 100.

08:24

What multiple of new Bitcoin supply are ETFs expected to buy in 2026?

hard Click to reveal answer

2 times.

09:33

What multiple of new Ethereum supply are ETFs expected to buy in 2026?

hard Click to reveal answer

2.6 times.

09:33

Which two blockchains are identified as main beneficiaries of regulatory clarity?

easy Click to reveal answer

Ethereum and Solana.

06:20

What was the average return of Real-World Assets (RWAs) in 2025?

medium Click to reveal answer

185%.

12:41

What percentage of tokenized commodities are on the Ethereum ecosystem?

hard Click to reveal answer

Over 75%.

14:47

How is the four-year Bitcoin cycle breaking in 2025?

hard Click to reveal answer

The third year (2025) is negative for the first time, instead of positive.

16:55

💡 Key Takeaways

📊

Government Shutdown Probability Decline

Indicates improving macro conditions for crypto liquidity.

01:08
💡

Stablecoin Market Cap Prediction

Shows massive capital inflow expected into crypto from traditional finance.

04:55
📊

ETF Demand Exceeding New Supply

Quantifies the immense institutional buying pressure anticipated.

09:33
💡

RWAs Top Performing Narrative

Highlights the growing importance of tokenized real-world assets.

12:41
⚖️

Bitcoin Cycle Breakdown

Suggests a paradigm shift in crypto market cycles, creating uncertainty.

16:55

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AI-generated clip ideas for Shorts based on the transcript

No viral clips found for this video, or they are still being generated.

[00:02] pivotal for the cryptocurrency sector. It seems that the favor of closing down again. Donald Trump will appoint the new Fed chairman in January. And the Clarity Act is also coming

[00:15] to the United States, and there are two projects that will surely benefit greatly, plus dozens of ETFs of different cryptocurrencies are coming. And finally, Ethereum has every chance of exploding in 2026. So

[00:29] welcome to Crypto Daily, the only weekly show you need to stay up-to- market, what to do with your money, and what opportunities you can seize before anyone else. So if you don't want to miss anything week after week,

[00:42] miss anything week after week, subscribe now, we're starting right away. were talking about, which is that, as we can see on Polyarket, the

[00:54] platform where you can see the probabilities of something happening or not in the market, or well, in many other things, what we're seeing here is that the probability of the United States government shutting down

[01:08] again is getting lower and lower. In fact, since mid-December when it was at 38%, it has not stopped falling and right now it is around 26%. Why is this important and beneficial for the crypto sector?

[01:22] US government shutdown, which in fact was the longest in history. And what this really implies is a withdrawal of liquidity liquidity is withdrawn from the economy, liquidity is also withdrawn from the markets.

[01:38] the United States government that we have experienced such sharp declines in the Creole market. Not only for this reason, but for multiple reasons, this is obviously negative for the sector. The fact that it's being shut down or that

[01:52] the possibility is decreasing is positive. So, that's good, and it's very likely, given all the talks and conferences being given by the government, that they're realizing that the last lockdown wasn't

[02:07] realizing that the last lockdown wasn't entirely beneficial. And in addition to this, we must add that it is very likely that one of the reasons is that the Fed president, or rather Donald Trump, will officially announce in January

[02:23] who the next Fed president will be. This is further compounded by the fact that we don't know who it is at all; there are two main candidates, but surely whoever he chooses will have the same ideals as

[02:38] Donald Trump. What is Donald Trump's current message? The one about lowering interest rates and trying to get the economy moving much faster and bringing liquidity back into the

[02:51] United States economy. So, adding that there probably won't be that shutdown, or that it's becoming less and less likely, plus the new Fed chairman, these are very positive developments coming in the first month of 2026.

[03:04] Yes, I definitely think January is going to be a good month, at least in terms of volatility. We do is that they've been holding back the economy, trying to strangle it as much as possible to drain all that liquidity and fill the coffers

[03:17] of the Fed, the US Treasury, so they can then collecting back into the economy and raise prices across all assets,

[03:30] and make one last push for the also coming up next year. So it will be important to stay up to date on what's advantage of it, without a doubt. And on top of all this, the

[03:45] boom at the regulatory level and at the much easier for institutions, who are ultimately the ones investing the most money, to enter the crypto sector in a regulated way, as well as for

[04:03] impact on market capitalization, they will have a much greater impact in terms of market noise, and that's something we need to keep in mind. For example, something else that's happening quite strongly right here with this tweet you see on

[04:15] right here with this tweet you see on screen is that surely one of the good players or assets that will be most talked about in 2026 with all this regulatory landscape will be

[04:28] stablecoins. Here's a tweet from Bitwise where they talk about how the biggest charts are increasingly absorbing some of the liquidity that was lost some of the liquidity that was lost in a very unstable sector or market

[04:41] advantage of, I think, because if you look here, they say that the CR stablecoins are growing very fast, both USDT and USC, which had a market capitalization of $205 billion at the beginning of the year and that today they already have close to $300

[04:55] billion and that it is expected that by the end of next year, 2016, in a year's time they will reach $500 billion. What does all that mean? that part of the liquidity that is currently in the traditional sector will migrate or

[05:08] . And what we're seeing is that more and more stablecoins are being released. Any bank, any entity with a bit of potential is launching its stablecoin because it's a way to have control

[05:22] over its capital and also, obviously, to make money. I don't know if you know that Teter make money. I don't know if you know that Teter is the most profitable company per number of profitable companies on the planet. So, yes, what

[05:36] this tweet also says is important: they will surely take advantage of the situation or point to stablecoins as the negative factor that has destabilized the entire economy. They will definitely target USDC, and probably USDT more than USDC,

[05:51] but they will try—it mentions one or two countries with potential—to destabilize the economy, or to portray all the instability that has occurred, which is simply because the world or the economy is broken, and they will try to channel it against stablecoins. So we

[06:07] will have to keep that in mind. And also, with everything you're saying, which we will actually go into more detail about later regarding Ethereum, there are two clear winners with all this regulation:

[06:20] Ethereum on the one hand, and Solana on the other. Because? Firstly, because the entire Ethereum blockchain and ecosystem , although some are also on Solana and then the entire DeFi ecosystem. Ultimately, this regulation—

[06:33] clarity—will cause the entire decentralized finance ecosystem to develop much faster and much better, because they will know where to go in terms of regulation, and then the two largest blockchains or

[06:48] ecosystems in the FI world will probably benefit greatly, not only the DeFi projects as such, but also the in the end they are the main ones in that ecosystem. And they are needed at all

[07:02] times and they are going to have that very strong buying pressure. So that's a very powerful aspect for both Eirium and Solana. were saying earlier, indeed, as Pitu says here in

[07:15] one of his tweets, he talks about how to say "my Solana," surely thanks to the approval of the Clarity Act, they may find all-time highs again, since, if you notice, part of all the capital that is moving

[07:29] to stablecoins will then pass, uh, surely to these two of the infrastructures, well, to the two main infrastructures of the crypto sector in the more defi part, right? And in fact, here it talks about how a

[07:42] large part of the new tokens that will come onto the market, both Ethereum and Solana, as Bitwise clearly points out, will be the main beneficiaries of that massive influx of capital into

[07:56] stablecoins, which will then surely go on to buy these types of assets that are also utility tokens and are used both to pay fees and to invest in other projects within their ecosystem. And continuing with this report

[08:08] that Bitwise has made of all the predictions it sees in 2026, there is a the issue of regulation, not so much with the Clarity Act, but more with ETFs, which in the end are investment vehicles regulated by

[08:24] institutions and it is predicted that more than 100 ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies will be launched in the United States. It says here that in October 2025 the SEC listing standards that allow ETF issuers to launch cryptocurrency ETFs under

[08:39] a general set of rules. A clearer regulatory roadmap in 2026 is the reason we believe the stage is being set for the Palusa ETF or this increase in ETFs by various cryptocurrencies.

[08:55] We already know that we have ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, the main ones we have for Solana, for XRP, and they will surely be coming for all the major cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, what is interesting about all this? This is another

[09:09] prediction here in this tweet, and it is that in 2026 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs are expected to buy more than 100% of the new supply that comes

[09:21] into circulation. We already know that every year new bitcoins , new Ethereums, and new Solana coins are released into circulation. It is predicted

[09:33] that during 2026, ETFs alone will account for two times the demand for all bitcoins that come into circulation, and 2.6 times the demand for Ethereums

[09:45] that will be in circulation, because it must also be remembered that Ethereum has deflationary moments due to the use of the network. The more the network is used, the more Ethereums are burned, and in addition to this we add the demand of ETFs and in

[09:59] Solana a 1.5 of all that supply. And as I said, this only applies to ETFs. Here we are not counting retail or individual investors who buy

[10:11] Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana individually, without the ETF. What does this mean? The demand for the crypto sector is constantly growing, and that's why we are very clear that every time buying opportunities arise after

[10:25] corrections in Bitcoin, Sirius, and Solana, the three main cryptocurrencies, we try to accumulate as much as possible, not thinking we accumulate thinking about the following years, because one thing is

[10:38] very clear: the crypto sector is no longer just a sector of high speculation, but a sector that institutions are entering. Regulations, governments, central banks, and everything we

[10:52] as individuals can accumulate will be good for us. So, there's some very interesting news coming in the ETF sector in 2026. And for all of you looking for an entry-level exchange where you can deposit your euros

[11:05] to buy cryptocurrencies, here's Bybit, the exchange we use. It's one of the safest exchanges on the market, has been operating for many years, and is very easy to use. And they also have this

[11:17] promotion where if you deposit your euros and make those first cryptocurrency purchases, you can win quite a few prizes, in addition to getting discounts on fees. So you have the link in the first line of the

[11:29] description and let's continue with the video. Let's move on to the next topic, and that is that we keep wondering if this is going to be Cum's year. And here I show you a tweet where you can clearly see, as we were talking about before, how the market or the

[11:42] market cap of stablecoins has reached a new high, exceeding reached a new high, exceeding $300 billion. Part of of them in fact, always go to the infrastructure that has been around the longest and

[11:58] what is this? Etherium. In fact, a large part of all developed at the DEFI infrastructure level is built on CIM. And that's why we believe Cirium will be one of the main players

[12:13] in growth, both in terms of infrastructure and price, in 2026. Furthermore, we see here that the most boring narrative one of the narratives people always said, "Wow, I just don't get this

[12:26] n't invest in that." Real-world assets, according to CoinGeeko, have Real-world assets, according to CoinGeeko, have been the category or narrative that has generated the most profit or the most money on average in 2025 among all

[12:41] projects within this narrative. Notice how One follows with Layer 1 infrastructures at an average of 80% , but RWAs are at 185%. Remember, these are real-world assets or the tokenization of

[12:58] real-world assets. Also, look at the narratives in the crypto sector in 2025: 185%, 80%, 30-31%. Look at what happened in 185%, 80%, 30-31%. Look at what happened in 2024: 3,000% for AI, 2,100% for Meme Coins, and

[13:13] 2024: 3,000% for AI, 2,100% for Meme Coins, and 819% for RWAs. So, if your portfolio is in the red or trading sideways, don't... Do n't worry, because this has been normal. In fact, most assets across different narratives have been in the

[13:26] red, so the reason we 're holding on today is surely because we're going to reap significant benefits in the crypto sector in the coming months. And then, also related to the whole

[13:38] also related to the whole RWA issue, notice how this post tells us how RWs have been one of the largest platforms, or rather, sources of capital inflows from the traditional sector to the crypto sector. In

[13:53] fact, they show us a website here that's quite interesting. We're sharing it here so you can take a look: rw.YZ. It provides different information and data on how the RW sector has grown specifically

[14:07] . Notice how it hasn't stopped growing, especially across different themes: treasury, US debt, commodities, institutional alternative funds, private equity

[14:20] , public equity—you can find all of this. Here. And what's more, the interesting thing is step, for example, here we have the stocks where we see that, as we said stocks where we see that, as we said before, the infrastructure that

[14:33] is assuming the largest share of all the capital is indeed Ethereum, followed by Solana. If we look, for example, at institutional funds, Ethereum is indeed at over 50%, followed in this case by Avalanch and several others.

[14:47] If we look at commodities, notice how in this case, practically over 75% is within the Cirium ecosystem. So it's a potential narrative, and also within one of the

[15:01] largest infrastructures in the crypto sector today, in the decentralized finance sector. Who else knows this? Well, Tomley, the director Bitmine as an investment fund, who again continues to accumulate units and

[15:18] units of Ethereum. In fact, just this, on Christmas Day, December 24th, he made a purchase of 67,000. With the drop in Ethereum to around $2,800, Bitwise is constantly buying

[15:31] constantly buying Ethereum every week. Furthermore, regarding what he told his investors he was going to buy, he's buying much more. He's a downturn and a very good opportunity due to the discount we have in the

[15:43] price of Bitcoin. So, they keep accumulating, and they're probably not accumulating to sell at $3,000 or $3,200, but rather to sell much higher. And finally, we have this last prediction

[15:55] that Bitwise has also made, which is that there's a lot of talk about the possibility that we might be four-year Bitcoin cycle we've known until now break down for the first time. Here in these charts, we can see the first of those four-year cycles, which was

[16:11] 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. We can see positive year, positive year, positive year, negative year. Then we had what was called the cycle of... Ethereum, because that's when Ethereum was born in 2015, we have a positive 2015 for Bitcoin,

[16:27] positive 2015 for Bitcoin, positive 2016, positive 2017, negative 2018. And then in the previous bull cycle, which was called the early application cycle, in 2019 we had the first positive year,

[16:42] in 2019 we had the first positive year, positive 2020, positive 2021, and 2022 we had the bear cycle. What's happening for the first time? We've happening for the first time? We've had a positive 2023, a positive 2024, and it

[16:55] looks like 2025 is going to end in negative territory. It's the first time that the third year, instead of being positive—and one of the most positive, because here we can see how it was 5000% in the first year, 1300% in

[17:08] the second—the third, it's true, wasn't the most positive, but it's the first time we're seeing it in negative territory, very slightly negative. We're not bear markets, and that's why We are in that moment of uncertainty. We are

[17:21] experiencing something that has never happened before in the crypto sector. And what is the question we have now? Will 2026 be bullish because we have already experienced the bear market, or will 2026 truly be a continuation and will we

[17:36] experience that real bear market like before? What are we doing and how are we preparing? We must understand that in the crypto market, and in any market, this is a game of possibilities. There are

[17:48] many possibilities, and we will never be 100% certain that something will happen. What we have to do as investors is to be prepared for all those possibilities. We have to have a portfolio or

[18:02] our liquidity management structured in such a way that if 2026 ends up being bearish, we are prepared to take advantage of all those opportunities, and on the other hand, if 2026 ends up being bullish, we are sufficiently

[18:16] invested and prepared to be able to take advantage of it. So, these are moments of uncertainty. As the year unfolds... 2026, obviously market's direction, but right now we're prepared for both

[18:32] scenarios. And to wrap things up, we wanted to ask you to leave your thoughts in the comments: will 2026 be bullish or bearish? sheds some light on how we close out 2025. Also, right now

[18:45] 89,000 barrier. We'll see if we end up closing in the red or the green, but in any case, it's important these days, at this time of year, to take advantage of the calm, to disconnect, to be with family, to be with

[18:59] friends, to close our laptops from time to time, and also to 've done poorly, what we've learned, what we want to change, and thus face 2026 with much more energy, with much more desire to

[19:13] give it our all. And let's hope it's a tremendous year for the crypto sector, and that we together, just like we have for the past five years since we started this project, and also within this sector that has brought us so much joy. So

[19:26] , thanks a million, Kevin. See you in the next crypto of the day. A See you in the next crypto of the day. A decentralized hug to the family.

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