DraftKings Pick6 Strategy: How to Win Consistently

[00:06] series here with Nate and Josh we are taking a look at some actual strategy six hopefully you caught the first couple videos that we put out to show an account get into this and exactly what pick six is and comprises of so now

[00:20] going to get into a little bit more advanced strategy how to build your looking for and how you should be sort of evaluating the amount of picks that you put into your lineup as well so Nate let's kick it off uh with that right

[00:33] sets and and what makes up the the decision to you know make two picks three picks all the way up to six yeah it all comes down to confidence right which is a good lesson for props embedding lines in general you kind of

[00:46] want to look at things think about how things can go wrong how they could go right uh kind of assign an amount of confidence to it um and basically if you put a numerical number next to it that's how many picks should go into your pick

[01:00] set depending on the the game slate that's that's usually a big factor right Thursday night football contest and there's only one game to choose from it's going to be hard to hit five picks uh versus a Sunday slate with a million

[01:14] guys um there's there's many more options to choose from you could feel you could assign a much higher confidence number to that um in in the NBA you got a you got to look at things like how many backto backs there are how

[01:26] many injuries there are potentials that could go wrong whether you want to Stack one or two games or or what you want to do um and you know Pi six has kind of leaned into this with one of these promos that they'll throw out there

[01:40] occasionally like there's a no-brainer prick promo for Co for um contest with three picks or less and they and they'll basically give you a free pick they'll they have like Nathan McKinnon up there as 99 and a half goals for tonight and

[01:54] you've got one in there and they're kind of encouraging a little more action on lesson to say like don't don't take things that you're not very sure in um freebie every night uh but right now they do have it

[02:10] you're going to find that pretty consistently I would say with these promos you know weekly at the very least uh you mentioned Nate McKinnon and his 99 and a half goal is probably not going to happen uh so I think that's yeah

[02:23] that's a fair you know sort of freebie to your point love the ability to add those in there and obviously you do usually need to have a few picks uh in those to make it worthwhile so you'd probably need a three Banger in here

[02:35] to make it worth your your your time to add it to it but still a really nice freebie there uh I want to go into some of the the correlation between game script game Flow and those types of projections how that affects the lineups

[02:48] that you pick as well um just using the NBA as an example here as we record this nice NBA slate to choose from I'm looking you know just for instance at at the the game theory going if you look at this Lakers game they're playing the

[03:01] Grizzlies tonight um game correlation for this one and game script can be predicted at least we both did on the show uh look at more points in this one looking at the likelihood that there's a faster Pace in this game that both of

[03:13] these teams are moving up and down a lot more and thus there's a couple ways to to play that one I'm scared of too many unders in this game because there's there's going to be more opportunities for guys to pick up stats whether it's

[03:26] more made shots and points because taking more um but the volume is going you want to lean into that theory it's the best way to to make sure that your lineup is standing out a little bit is go for those really take a a theory and

[03:40] a stance on a projection that you have for the game as a whole and then you can sort of add in uh the player props accordingly right like the the best projections for NBA and and any other sport um they're looking at things

[03:53] through the lens of what do I how am I giving each assigning each player think that they can score to get up to that total right so if we have like a 235 point total in this game um then you know that the the props are going to be

[04:06] because they're projecting more points at the same time you know that that it's that's that's a really simple way of looking at uh Game Theory and how you choose the players in your lineup yeah but at the same time if you really want

[04:19] to go for the go for gold you know go for the five for five and and get a huge pay out you might want to fade that type of public perception I mean it might be the right choice in general as we know with sports betting a lot of times what

[04:32] you forecast it just based on recent results the exact opposite is going to happen because these are humans and and things EB and flow and everybody wants to bounce back and and guys who are up tend to tend to float back down so I

[04:45] mean that's kind of like the stock market angle of it uh but as far as going in a peer-to-peer contest like pick six with what we're talking about of your opponents which is just other people which is fading the public you

[04:58] know that's something that's extremely valuable in NFL betting when you have the smaller sample size so if you talk about NFL props you say like this guy who went for a 100 yards and in two two weeks in a row like I'm just gonna take

[05:12] the under here because I see something in the matchup or or just because I think he's coming back down to earth and basketball is another prime example of that like I don't think you know Anthony Edwards is going to score 30 plus every

[05:25] single night out there like at some point he's going to go cold I'm going to pick that spot and take the under and then that gives you that extra Edge in terms of you know DFS players are very familiar with this if if you go with

[05:37] somebody that's unexpected you have a much better chance of getting to the top of that leaderboard uh but at the same time yeah it's not it's not a huge risk to necessarily think about fading your own priors and your own public

[05:50] perception because that's what it takes sometimes to pick props correctly true add to that as it's pertains to DraftKings pick six is that I think you can make the blanket statement that it's best to fade uh the public in when

[06:04] you're playing regular DFS lineups where you need to make an entire lineup with all that stuff is it's a little bit more important in that traditional style DFS whereas here you just want to get the picks right that said if you are taking

[06:17] a pick that is popular such as over for Anthony Davis points because he's the league leader in points right now in the NBA you know most people are probably getting much of an edge on them so while it's more important to win if you're

[06:30] looking to win a little bit more you've got to risk the be a little bit riskier with your play and take uh more of a Dark Horse to to get his props rather than uh the more popular players one really important thing that we need to

[06:43] DraftKings pick six obviously or any other sports book here Nate is the ability to shop lines now with you know the DraftKings pick six they give us what they give us and we look at it and go do we want to play that or not at the

[06:56] market thinks right we want to know what are the other sports books positioning number that they're offering a lower number and while we're not necessarily different book because we want to play with DraftKings pick six at least we

[07:09] know if the offer from DraftKings pick six is worth it so using the NFL real quick and you can see right here I have the the NFL uh props finder tool up ahead and find that really easily on the site and use it to to search these prop

[07:23] available to you so for instance if we're looking at what's available right Night Football so there's just going to be the one game uh between the commanders and the Eagles if I'm looking at Jaylen Herz and his passing yards the

[07:36] offer on this uh on DraftKings pick six is 223 a half yards I'd like to know what the rest of the market and the other uh Sports books think Jaylen herz's passing yards should be at so I'm putting him into this prop finder tool

[07:49] to compare his number on the other books to what it is here um so if I scroll down and show all the bets so I can get to passing yards we've got 225 A2 on uh to passing yards we've got 225 A2 on uh B MGM 222 A5 on Caesars right so those

[08:02] are two very comparable numbers I'd rather have if I'm going to go over the the 222 and a half but not too different from 223 so I think this is still a were showing me that they had Jaylen Herz at 229 or 230 or anything like that

[08:18] now I'm thinking I feel even better about my over um because the market outside of DraftKings pick six has decided that this should be at about 230.50 um whereas on this book here in DraftKings pick six specifically it's

[08:30] 223 A2 and obviously you can also use DraftKings and see if the sports book is offering the same thing as DK pick six and make sure you're getting the best from the ones that might seem like they're not adequately priced on DK pick

[08:44] six right and this the biggest thing to remember is that the pick six lines don't move whereas props on on Sports books will move throughout the day so that's where you can find the value um you you can come right back to the pick

[08:58] six contest and say like oh I've seen this this has moved like three three yards as you point out obviously the market is dictating a certain thing so I'm going to take that as value on pick six um also the useful thing with the

[09:13] movement right as you continue to scroll down you can see that it used to be 223 and now it's 227 at a certain book and then it continues to move in a certain direction and look props don't move as much as betting lines based on because

[09:28] they don't see this kind of whale action that some of them do which which really indicate you know where professional money is going and obviously you're you're got to be more profitable if you follow what professionals are doing uh

[09:41] but at the same time it does move um it yet yeah what I'm that comes back to times you might want to fade that public perception because a lot of times these numbers are moving just because of action and not because of you know huge

[09:55] perception it's just people thinking like wait Anthony Edwards again to has so I'm going to hit his over again and again and then so you you can still buy

[10:07] and sell uh recent performances based on your own research you know there's there's lots of advanced statistics to look at there's lots of um you know matchup data and there's our our our daily uh podcast on NBA player props for

[10:21] one uh which is we've hit at a good 60% clip throughout the past couple Seasons so we try to identify those spots and and when when to buy when to sell on guys and that can be applied right to your pix six contest and that is all the

[10:35] time we have for you in our strategy video for DraftKings pick six continue page so you don't miss any of these coming out got a few more for you as missing anything here with DraftKings pick six as you guys jump in so until we

[10:49] pick six as you guys jump in so until we do see you next happy bet do see you next happy bet [Music]