Odds Tell Future, Analysis Tells Past
42sThis controversial contrast between odds and analysis challenges common prediction methods.
▶ Play Clip"Delivers a basic but valid strategy; 'easiest' is accurate, though the method is straightforward and not revolutionary."
In this video, Jay from Jay Soccer Tips demonstrates a step-by-step analysis method for predicting straight win football matches using the soccer24 website. He explains how to evaluate standings, head-to-head records, and historical gaps to identify value bets, emphasizing that odds predict the future while analysis only reflects the past.
The first step is to go to soccer24.com, the recommended website for football match analysis.
Look at league positions, but do not rely on them solely; odds tell the future, analysis tells the past.
Focus on the home and away tabs, not the overall head-to-head, to assess team strength in their respective domains.
For Elfsborg, the home team won two of their last five home matches despite being bottom of the table.
For Mjallby, the away team lost three of their last five away matches, showing poor away form.
Check the years teams played; a gap from 2014 to 2020 indicates one team was relegated.
Using soccer24's league history, Jay shows that Mjallby was relegated while Elfsborg was promoted, explaining the gap.
Based on analysis, Elfsborg is the stronger team despite league position. Bet on straight win at 1.96 odds.
The game ends with Elfsborg leading 3-1, validating the analysis.
Use match odds for better accuracy; table standings only show past performance.
What is the first website recommended for football match analysis?
soccer24.com
00:13
According to the video, what do odds tell you compared to analysis?
Odds tell the future, analysis tells the past.
01:57
When analyzing head-to-head, which tab should you focus on?
Home tab for home team, Away tab for away team – not the overall.
02:47
What caused the gap in head-to-head between Elfsborg and Mjallby from 2014 to 2020?
Mjallby was relegated and Elfsborg was promoted.
04:39
What was the final score of the example match?
Elfsborg 3-1 Mjallby.
07:00
Why does Jay suggest not to rely on table standings?
Because standings show past performance, not future outcomes.
07:28
Odds vs Analysis
Key principle: odds predict future, analysis reflects past.
01:57Check Historical Gaps
Technique to uncover relegation/promotion changes affecting team strength.
03:42Table Standings Misleading
Insight: current league position irrelevant if historical data shows opposite.
05:33Analysis Validated
Result confirms the method works in practice.
07:00Use Home/Away Form
Technique: focus on specific home/away tabs not overall form.
07:28[00:00] hello guys and welcome back to Jay Soccer Tips my name is Jay the King of odds and in today's video I'm going to share with you how to analyze for straight win matches in football predictions. So stay with me to the end of the video and learn something about how
[00:13] I make analysis when predicting straight win matches. The first thing you want to do is visit soccer24 which is the website I recommend in making analysis when it comes to football. Soccer 24 and you also have to remember that I don't use um analysis when
[00:29] making football predictions. I use match odds instead because I know the meaning behind some match odds already and I can see a game and tell you that this game of 1.24 is likely to play a draw or likely to play um a win. So I can easily tell you that by just looking
[00:45] at the match odd but for those of us who want to use analysis and don't have access to my ebook this is the video for you because at a time before I started using match odds, there was a time I used match analysis as well that was before 2017 so I use match analysis in making my
[01:03] predictions. So this is what I'm going to show you, the process I used in the past to get my results. So let me look for a random game um I'm going to analyze let's stick with this Elfsborg
[01:15] vs Mjallby and um the first thing you want to do when you open, when you decide to pick a game after selecting the game you want to analyze, the first thing you want to do is go to the standings.
[01:28] Now for me I use match odds so I can tell with a game, without doing the analysis what the game is likely to play by looking at the match odds but for you, you want to first go to standings and confirm the league position of that team and from this game we can see that Mjallby the away team is
[01:45] on top while Elfsborg is at the bottom. Now others who might be predicting games might run away from this game because the they believe that the team on top is likely to win the team at the bottom
[01:57] but no, like I always tell you, odds tells you the future um analysis tells you the past okay? with analysis now I can tell you that this game might not likely win the home team because the home team have been in top form won four matches and these has, these guys have just won two matches. I'm
[02:14] not going to do that because I use match odds so we stick to this game and see what this game is likely to play out. Now after checking your standing, you come over to the head to head. The head to head tells you another aspect, another important aspect of this game and I don't want you
[02:30] to stick on the overall match because this shows you the home and away fixtures their previous home and away fixtures. I don't want you to stick on that... I want you to check for the home fixture because we are looking at the home team currently and we want to know how good they've been playing
[02:47] over in the past few matches and how good the away team has been playing. That is going to tell us how their strength are in their respective domain home or away. now for Elfsborg you want to click
[03:00] the Home tab okay? you want to click the Home tab and you see that despite being at the bottom of the table these guys have won three matches and drawn two including friendly, Club friendlies included okay? but the important fact is that they've won two of their last previous matches at
[03:16] home. The away matches now is not here, you don't want to be focused on that. Let's go over to the away team Mjallby and we can see that Mjallby has lost three matches and won two matches for
[03:29] away so their away form is bad despite being on top of the table above Elfsborg their away team is bad. After that, you want to come down to the head to head. Now at this head to head,
[03:42] you want to check the years that they've played. Make sure you check the years they played 2014 they played this and there was a gap from 2014 to 2020 as you can see from here. Then 2021
[03:56] 2022 2023 but there was a gap here and this gap is important I will come back to that but let's check for how this team have played themselves over the past few years. Elfsborg Won, Mjallby Won,
[04:09] Elfsborg Won again, Mjallby and Elfsborg played a draw here and Elfsborg won. So, so far in the last um five matches Mjallby has just won one match against Elfsborg but they are on top of
[04:22] their league take note but they've won just one match against elfsborg. Now what you want to do next is check out why this team there's been a gap over here. Over the few years from 2014 to 2020 there's been a big gap. Now what you want to do is Select this. We are looking for which
[04:39] of the team has been relegated because that is the reason there will be that gap. which of the team has been relegated over the years from 2014? Now this is Sweden as Allsvenskan in 2014 that is
[04:52] the league they played in and that is why I said use soccer24 because it gives you this important information. All this important information you can use when making predictions. Now see this, from number one to four... Elfsborg qualified for top four and they likely got promoted because
[05:08] this is the qualification spot. They likely got promoted while Mjalby got relegated from Allsvenskan. They got relegated now this is why there has been that gap from 2014 to 2020 Elfborg
[05:20] played better and got promoted Mjallby was a bad team and go relegated. Now you can see why that home team for the table where the away team has been on top is not important anymore now. You can
[05:33] see that this team is clearly the stronger team despite being below when it comes to the current table. Now let's close this tab and go back to our match. Now after we've confirmed that these guys
[05:45] are the better team, you can then come over to the overall match and see how the form has been, This is a balanced game, this is a game that with good analysis which we've done already, you can tell that Elfsborg is the better team. So what you want to do next is is play this game as
[06:00] straight win at 1 point... What is the odd again? at 1.96 odd... You want to play this game at 1.96 odd. Now I can't guarantee you that this game is likely to win, I cannot guarantee you that this
[06:13] game is likely to win because I did not use the match odds I know, to check out this game which is bet365 odds but from our analysis we can tell that Elfsborg is a better team when it comes to this analysis that we've done. Elfsborg is the team that you should pick going forward.
[06:30] now I'm going to come back at the... when is this game kicking off 3:30 p.m. I'm going to come back and check out this game to see if we win this game. So I'll pause this video and wait till then um after full time we'll come check this game out. Okay guys I'm back for the second half
[06:46] of this video where we have to see the outcome of our analysis we did for the Elfsborg game. The game should be ending by now let's see what Elfsborg has played for the straight win
[07:00] and you can see that it's 89 minutes and Elfsborg are leading 3-1they're leading Mjallby 3-1. Now remember that when I made analysis for this game, Elfsborg was below the away team on the table.
[07:13] They were down and now they've almost caught up. You see 29, 25 they've almost caught up they've won their game against the away team that is above them. So that is how you make predictions when making predictions for straight win, you don't really consider the table standings because
[07:28] anybody can actually win. The table standing just tells you the past, what they've done in the past that is why I recommend using odds in making predictions so make sure you're using match odds in making predictions and make sure you following the steps I've given you if you want to make use
[07:43] of analysis when making predictions. Remember what I said about um these predictions that when you want to make the predictions you stick with the home form or away team depending on where the favorite team is at. You want to stick with either the home or the Away tab. Don't use the overall
[07:59] when making predictions for this because it shows you the away match and home match. the previous away match and home matches you want to stick with only the home outcome and then you want to also follow the previous matches from the home team previous matches how they fared over the years
[08:15] from the home results. You want to follow that like I said before in the first half of the video, where I said there was a gap from 2014 to 2020 you can see the statement here is that Elfsborg has been the better team right from time and that is why we are able to win these predictions if we
[08:30] include this on our ticket as straight win. So that is how you make predictions for straight win and I hope you improve your analysis, improve your chances of making straight win predictions by 90 to 95% with the videos I'll be sharing with you um in the future I have a lot of video
[08:44] coming up for you guys on my channel make sure you subscribe to the channel and like this video for more insight also don't forget I have a membership platform on WhatsApp where I give out games daily, give out tips daily to subscribers so you can... you might want to subscribe to my VIP group
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