Laying 1.01 Odds Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] i've lost have you ever noticed if you scroll down to the bottom of the prices on betfair you always tend to see tons of money waiting to be matched at 101 well not long after starting betfair trading i

[00:15] noticed this i always wondered what is going on surely all these people are just losing money over and over again not one glitter i started to watch trading videos here on youtube and heard people saying that long-term data

[00:27] suggested that laying 101 was actually a profitable strategy with the theory being that the trader is going to lose a large number of times but these small losses will be outweighed by these big wins you'll get every so often as a

[00:40] naturalist skeptical person i was always a little bit suspicious of this idea why would odds of 101 be magically different to any other odds odds of course represent probability 99 in the case of 101 and surely if an

[00:54] event is greater than 99 chance of occurring then 101 should surely be back value and oppositely just like any of the odds if the probability of the outcome occurring is less than 99 then 101 would in fact be lay value but this

[01:08] isn't what i was hearing in youtube videos it doesn't really explain why all this money is waiting at 101 ready to be matched could it really be that easy to be profitable all you need to do is just lay 101 over and over again at the end

[01:22] of the day curiosity has got the better of me which is why i'm making this video to try to figure out the truth when i first heard the rumors that lane at 101 that none of these people were actually providing any evidence to prove that

[01:36] through the depths of the internet to see if i could find this data myself and i didn't really find much but i did come across some interesting data one article i found on the website called the game hunter honestly i have no idea how

[01:50] reputable that source is but it was the only data that i could find the data i found was in fact for horse racing trading and over a two year period 28 trading and over a two year period 28 000 horses matched odds of 1.01 of these

[02:05] 000 horses matched odds of 1.01 of these 387 went on to lose their race 387 out of 28 000 might not sound like a lot but if you had laid all of these 28 000 horses which are matched at odds of 101 and let's say we're using a hundred

[02:19] ability for every single bet you would lose just over 27 000 pounds on all the horses which matched at 101 and went on to win the race as they're expected to do but the 387 horses which matched at 101 and went on to lose would actually

[02:35] give you a profit of over thirty seven thousand pounds well side note that's assuming that using the standard two percent commission model on bedford and overall this strategy of weighing all these 28 thousand horses would have

[02:48] given you a total profit of just over ten thousand pounds now that number looks nice of course but let's not get carried away here it's a couple of things which raise concerns firstly as i alluded to i'm not sure about the

[03:01] credibility of this data i'm assuming that it's accurate but unfortunately i have no way of verifying that secondly this data is over a decade old so there is a good chance that the data isn't reflective of how the markets are

[03:15] behaving in now the year 2022. so i'd say realistically this data set isn't reliable enough to start basing our strategies off but it is a good starting point to suggest that the rumors of lane of 101 being a long-term profitable

[03:29] strategy might have some weight towards them and when you can't find the answers that you're looking for on google i'm left with one choice and that is to try i'm going to do in this video i'm going to run a sort of rudimentary experiment

[03:42] to figure out if lane at 101 can be a profitable strategy i won't be placing you know 28 000 bets to figure this out because you know i want to hold this video at some point this decade but i'll place as many bets as i physically can

[03:57] to generate the largest sample size so what i need to do first is what i do when i'm doing any strategy and that is to sit here and come up with a plan strategy this is a little bit different because obviously i'm doing a test here

[04:09] to figure out if wayne at 101 is profitable long term and now i need to out is i thought a little bit of trying to identify places where lane at 101 would be valuable but that just defeats the entire objective of this video

[04:22] because you could do that with any odds and find value that way so ideally i'm just going to try and find the best way that i can lay 101 over and over again and to track those results okay i've made a few notes now about how i plan to

[04:34] implement this strategy a part of me is undecided on whether i should do the same bet on the same type of market over and over again so we have a consistent data set or we should just go gung-ho and weigh as many selections in as many

[04:47] i've decided to keep it consistent to begin with and see how that goes see how my idea is that i'm going to weigh the under 2.5 goals market at 101 i'm going to put the bet in right at the start of

[05:00] matched until late in the game i've had a little bit of a research on bet angel and some goal scoring data that i have and it predicts that the under 2.5 goals market will approximately reach odds of 101 somewhere between the 70th and 80th

[05:14] beginning of the game hope to get matched there at 101 and then obviously i need three goals to be scored in approximately 15 minute period plus added time which is very unlikely but that's obviously why the odds are 101.

[05:26] goals are likely to be scored before the 75th minute mark if goals are scored dynamic of the trade i was thinking what's the best thing to do here should i cancel a position if a goal is scored for now i'm just going to leave the

[05:38] position in for the entire game i want to see is how many times can i get 101 one thing that i did note down straight away is it's going to be really the queue i don't want to be sat behind tens and tens of thousands of pounds

[05:53] eating away at my time in which i could get profit from this trade and i'm going to do it as an outright bet so obviously if i lay at 101 and a goal goes in the going to cash out here to begin with i'm just going to leave himself out right

[06:06] how well that works i've made a couple of notes about my steak doing this and i'll go wrong so i'm just going to be using 10 pound stakes this is about research i'm trying to settle a question which has been

[06:20] bothering me from a while now so the first game i'm going to do this on is because it starts tonight i'm not going to look at any pre-match research i'm possible because that isn't the point i'm not trying to find an edge from that

[06:34] principle i'm just trying to see if there's an edge based purely on odds of 101. so i'm going to open a 2.5 gold market and i'm going to place away bet odds of 101 and as i said and there's a 10 pound stake and i'm going to keep the

[06:47] bet in play so we have a look now at the price and see how much money is in front of my money you see that there's 2 500 pound which isn't ideal but i know if i left this employee by the time the price was approaching 101 there'd be so much

[07:00] more money waiting to be matched uh so no surprises here this game is finished and it's not won the bet in fact didn't even get matched as there was already over 2.5 goals before the price had even come close to approaching odds of 101.

[07:13] so yeah one trade in one day is nowhere near a big enough sample size to to strategy so tomorrow i'm going to put a more games and hope that one of them might hit so it's the next day here and

[07:27] it's a saturday which typically is a day of the week with the most number of games so i started opening up every single game and placing a 10-pound labour in the under 2.5 goals market making sure that each bet was selected

[07:39] to keep once the market went into play it didn't take many markets for me to realize that this was an incredibly slow process and i would need a faster approach if i wanted to place as many bets as possible for this experiment so

[07:52] i decided to open up my sports trading software which enables me to connect to my betfair account and place bets much quicker i used a very simple piece of automation which essentially did two things number one place a ten pound

[08:05] things number one place a ten pound labor odds of 1.01 and number two don't cancel the bet once the market goes into play this enabled me to place hundreds of bets extremely quickly and for this saturday i had 10 pound way bets in just

[08:19] under 500 markets with a maximum risk of just under 50 pounds i'm going to come back tonight to see what mess i've ended up leaving myself in oh you know you never know it might in fact just be profitable so i've been off the computer

[08:33] the results from the first day of doing this i'm presuming that not many of those 500 bets will have matched but let's find out the worst case scenario is about 50 pound down let's not hope that's true

[08:46] that's true no idea what this is gonna look like 13.60 down wonderful hey so that's 137 markets

[08:58] matched in theory on average you should win once every 100 markets this is quite couple of reasons why this might be the case number one is because of the way it's going to place bets in markets which are like one there or one goal in

[09:13] them on like the 90th minute or the late 80 minutes which is not what i want suppose which is what the aim of this experiment was tomorrow i think i'm that it will cancel the bet after around 80 minutes in poi this means that the

[09:27] bot is only going to pick up on markets which are nil nil between the 70th and 80th minute which is what i wanted really so i'm gonna try that tomorrow and looking at the results there was a few games which hadn't finished when i

[09:40] recorded last night so my overall loss from day one is in fact even bigger i'm going to change the way the automation works because the way it's currently set up the bet is going to stay in the market break the entire game so it'll be

[09:52] there when i want it to be though if the game's about nil nil at around the 70 and 80th minute but it'll also be there if there is one goal scored or two goals in the game and the game is approaching the 90th mania or even the very last

[10:05] seconds of the game but that'll still be there and can still be taken this may be the cause of all my losses from day one so because of that i'm adding one extra condition to the automation cancel all unmatched bet 95 minutes after the game

[10:19] goes in play this would be approximately after the 80th minute 45 minutes in the first half 15 minute half time and then 35 minutes of the second half after making this change i'm gonna come back tonight to see if the automation did any

[10:33] better today or if this is gonna be a very expensive at any of the results from the bets i've placed so it's not a day later i've been check what the results are but i didn't want to show you because i wanted to see

[10:48] the live reaction here let's have a look at my profit and loss here to see how i did yesterday it's called get bad okay so these must been games that went in overnight past 12 o'clock august today

[11:02] promising to start eight losses so i set this for just yesterday it's pretty good eh 2289

[11:15] 167 markets that seems quite too many markets for the was an error there but what is that is that it's like four or five wins there we go there's a win

[11:28] leagues i've got no idea what they are but yeah i've got i've got wins which i'm not going to lose all my money making this video to look at my total profit so far we've got seven pound profit over 320 markets we're still in

[11:42] the early stages so far testing the strategy but it's promising at the automation on and it's going to try and get as many markets as possible and let's see how well we can do i did some thinking and realized that the

[11:54] automation didn't work properly and more bets were placed than they should have been because i messed up on the third automation rule didn't set it up correctly but as the 300 plus bets that i'd placed so far with the original

[12:07] automation was giving me results i could work with i decided to keep using these conditions rather than fixing the broken automation rule it's been a few weeks since i last recorded however i've been placing lay bets at 101 in as many under

[12:21] 2.5 gold markets that i can possibly find all in all i have pleased over 5 000 bets and just over 2 000 of those i've gone on to get matched so over 2 000 10 pound lay bets odds of 101 puts my overall risk from this strategy this

[12:36] experiment over 200 pounds so this is the moment of truth after 2000 markets let's see if i have made money or if i've lost

[12:52] where i went 15 pounds down the strategy has made a miraculous comeback and i'm quite aware the strategy has done really well if odds of 1.01 accurately reflect the true probability then i was expected to win quite a few times given the

[13:07] number of markets i've ended up trading but i've gone on to win many more markets and i was expected to do so which is a promising sign that this strategy does in fact actually have something going for it when i look at

[13:19] won there's been some games where i've needed three goals in order to profit somewhere was two goals needed for me to win and some was the last second goal that enabled me to get a profit i really should emphasize that these results that

[13:32] i've got so far do not guarantee by any stretch of the imagination that this is actually a long-term profitable strategy there is every chance after thousands already done that this strategy could

[13:46] well in fact prove to be a losing strategy in the long run and this is why important which what i've done here used very low stakes each trade was tempe i'm to develop my strategies and i recommend that is what you do too and there's

[14:01] copy exactly what i do you could actually lose money so please be careful giving that caveat i must say that i'm strategy i'm going to continue to develop and fine-tune this strategy in

[14:15] the coming weeks and months if you want to know how i set up my automation for this trading strategy each day in order to get the profits that i've got as a matter of fact i've uploaded a tutorial video to my patreon detail exactly how i

[14:28] set this automation to run in the background when i'm doing other things out in the video description below you can get your hands on some exclusive trading content to say thank you i'd like to specially thank all the people

[14:41] who are already supporting the channel really means a lot here's a little shout-out for you for supporting the channel this experiment has settled my mind a little bit to finally make me understand why there is always so much

[14:53] money waiting to be matched at such rewards and i'm excited to develop this strategy further however one strategy on its own isn't enough on your bet for trading and if you want to learn everything you can possibly know the ins

[15:06] and outs of one of the most popular bet for trading strategies out there you can check out this video right here giving an in-depth overview of the under 2.5 goals trading strategy [Music]