How the Martingale Strategy works in Roulette

[00:01] will guarantee you come out of the casino profitable 93% of the time playing roulette this strategy is called the Martingale strategy and I'll be explaining how it works mathematically and whether you should be using it or

[00:15] not so you might have heard of roulette seen it being played in the movies or even played it yourself it is one of the most popular games in the casino and the reason for it is well founded pters love it because it's easy to play and the

[00:29] house Edge is reasonably small the casinos accept this relatively small Edge because they know it's a luck based game and therefore their Edge is easily quantifiable how it works is you can bet on colors categories of numbers like

[00:44] on colors categories of numbers like odds or evens high or low or a group of numbers like 1 2 3 or individual numbers like five the numbers are labeled 1 to 36 18 of these are red and 18 of these are black as such the odds for is 5050

[01:00] bets is simply two if you bet $50 you can get a return of$ 100 where you can get a return of$ 100 where you profit $50 or you just lose your $50 the odds reflect How likely you are to win so if you bet on individual numbers like

[01:13] betting on five then your odds would be 36 this sounds pretty fair right well not quite there's one more number the 37th number and that is the number zero and if it lands on zero no bet whether it was placed on red black or any of the

[01:29] numbers between 1 to 36 inclusive then that bet would just naturally lose unless your bet was actually on the number zero itself this is how the house or the casino has an edge let's say you bet on red where the odds are two or

[01:43] there's a one to one payout now instead of a 50% chance of winning assuming there were only 36 numbers there's only 18 red numbers and 19 non red numbers in this case with the extra zero and therefore your chances of winning are

[01:58] therefore your chances of winning are now 18 over 37 or 48.6% this doesn't seem very fair so how can we use Martin Gale to manipulate the statistics and increase our chances of winning Martingale is a strategy of

[02:14] sizing up in a methodical manner doubling down after a losing bet and stopping after you've hit a win let's see how it works with an example say I see how it works with an example say I have $150 from the rest of my paycheck

[02:27] and I'm taking $150 to the casino to bet on roulette to follow the Maring Gale strategy for my first bet I will bet $10 on one of those roughly 50/50 events for example betting on red betting on black betting on high numbers betting on even

[02:42] numbers like that now the dollar amount is important $10 is exactly 1 over 15th of my entire bank roll because my entire bank roll is $150 so I'll be betting $10

[02:56] if I started off with a bank row of $300 then I would start off with a bet of $20 betting this proportion is important as it allows us to sustain a four-step marting gale process which is what actually gets us the 93% chance of

[03:11] winning so for my first bet 18 of the 37 possible outcomes are red which is what will make me win my bet and that equates to an 18 / 37 which is a to an 18 / 37 which is a 48.6% chance of a win remember this is

[03:26] not 50% because there are 18 red 18 black and the extra zero Square which represents the house Edge the other outcome which has a 19 over 37% chance or 51.4% would cause us to lose our bet if

[03:41] the first bet is a win then the marting strategy will tell us to stop and because we bet $10 from that bet we would have made $10 in profit and cash out there now what if we lose the first bet well no problem let's just double

[03:56] down this time we are betting not $10 but this time we're betting $20 or twice as much as we were betting before again we can choose any event that has an 18 over 37 chance of happening for example betting on red again or we can pick

[04:11] numbers like the numbers 1 to 18 as there's no correlation between the first event happening and what the second event is going to be however for Simplicity we'll just assume we're continuing to bet on the color red again

[04:24] there's a 48.6% chance that it will be a win and if that happens the go strategy will tell us to stop therefore from this $20 bet we're going to make $20 in profit and we made a $10 loss from our first bet so therefore our net profit is

[04:40] first bet so therefore our net profit is 20 - 10 or again $10 again there's the same 51.4% chance of a loss that it doesn't hit red or whatever we chose to bet on in this case we have lost two bets but

[04:53] no worries we'll double down once more this time betting twice what we bet this time betting twice what we bet before so not $20 but $40 this time once again there's a 48.6% chance that we will win if that happens the Maring girl

[05:06] strategy tells us to stop and therefore we make $40 profit from this bet which covers our $20 loss from the previous bet and the $10 loss from the BET before so now our net profit is once again 40 - 20 - 10 which is $10 once more and we

[05:22] will cash up if it results in a loss which is once again a 51.4% chance then no problems with double down once more without our remaining $80 if it hits the

[05:34] 48.6% chance of a win then we make a profit of $80 covering the $40 loss $20 loss and $10 loss from the bets before giving us once more a net profit of $10

[05:46] that we can take away so as we can see the only situation where we lose money is actually when we lose four of these bets in a row which has a bets in a row which has a 51.4% chance to the power of four chance

[06:00] of happening this equates to only a 6.95% chance of occurring and therefore the probability of us winning is 1 minus this number which is 93.0 5% so now you

[06:13] can be confident of leaving the casino with a win 93% of the time so would I recommend this strategy to you guys absolutely [\h__\h] not the strategy might look very very promising but there's another layer of mass behind it

[06:28] that proves it's just complete dog [\h__\h] in the case that we do lose we're not losing $10 but instead we're getting wiped out as we've lost $10 $20 $40 and wiped out as we've lost $10 $20 $40 and $80 for a net loss of

[06:42] $150 therefore if we do the expected value calculation which shows how much expected value we can expect if we do this bet in the long run and the formula for that I explain in one of my previous videos our expected value is

[06:55] videos our expected value is 93% * $10 positive minus 6.95% time $150 and as we can see this number is negative which means it's not going to be profitable in the long run this goes

[07:11] to show that we still can't beat the casino house Edge all we've really done is synthetically increase our chances of winning but by doing this we've now left ourselves exposed to a huge potential loss it's very similar to betting on for

[07:26] example Nadal to beat a round one opponent in the French Open where the chances of winning are very high but youd make a very small amount compared to how much you can actually lose so what can you actually do to beat the

[07:40] casino if you are super smart then maybe you can be like this mathematician and use physics to predict the trajectory of the ball and calculate where it will likely end up or the area around where it will likely end up on the roulette

[07:54] table just after it's been released or be like Phil Ivy one of the top poke players who used Edge sorting to spot small differences on the back of the cards and gain an advantage however you still got to get away with this as even

[08:08] though Phil ivu managed to win a lot he eventually ended up getting banned and then sued and he had to pay back all his winnings for what he did while I can't beat the casino if you want to learn more about the profitable strategies

[08:20] that I use to beat the sports books and betting sites in Australia you can take a look at my sports betting course link and everything is in the description link in the description below where I teach you everything I do using tools

[08:34] and EXO models to show you how you can become a better Sports better and make money from Australian bookmakers so that's the basics of the marting girl something like the roulette table if you enjoyed this video then make sure to

[08:47] subscribe to this channel to not miss out on my other betting and moneymaking tips that I have wind up as always take care and I'll see you guys in the next care and I'll see you guys in the next video