Day Trading: 36% Win Rate Still Profits
45sChallenges the common belief that high win rates are necessary for profitability, which is controversial and intriguing.
▶ Play ClipThis video provides a comprehensive beginner's guide to day trading, covering the foundational concepts, essential tools, trading psychology, and a step-by-step process for building and testing a trading strategy. The creator emphasizes that trading is about managing risk and filtering data, not about being right all the time.
Trading is simply taking neutral market data, creating rules and criteria to filter noise, and building a strategy to generate profit over time.
The creator's win rate is 36%, but by risking 1R to make 5R, they remain profitable. Being wrong often is okay if risk-reward is favorable.
TradingView for charting, an exchange (e.g., Blofin for crypto, Topstep for futures), and a trade journal for tracking performance.
Trend lines, Fibonacci retracement, fair value gaps, trend-based Fibonacci extensions, and five-wave patterns to identify high-probability trade areas.
Being wrong is not bad; losing trades are pre-calculated. Focus on process, not outcomes. Risk management is paramount.
Risk per trade = (entry - stop loss) * units. Use a position size calculator to keep risk uniform (e.g., $100 per trade).
With 30% win rate and average win of 3.6R, total profit = 10.8R - 7R = +3.8R. Losing most trades can still yield profit.
Steps: 1) Observe pattern, 2) Create rule book, 3) Backtest in simulation, 4) Evaluate win rate and avg R, 5) Paper trade, 6) Go live.
Using custom indicators, fair value gaps, Fibonacci levels, and trend lines to enter a trade that resulted in a 7-10R profit.
Day trading success comes from understanding that it's a probabilistic game of risk management, not prediction. By building a tested strategy, keeping risk uniform, and mastering psychology, anyone can become consistently profitable.
"Title delivers on its promise: a thorough beginner's guide covering tools, psychology, math, and strategy building."
What is the core idea of trading according to the video?
Trading is taking neutral market data, creating rules to filter noise, and building a strategy to generate profit over time.
01:08
What is the creator's win rate over the past 3 months?
Around 36%.
01:50
Name three essential tools for day trading mentioned.
TradingView (charting), an exchange (e.g., Blofin, Topstep), and a trade journal.
03:15
What are the five analysis techniques covered?
Trend lines, Fibonacci retracement, fair value gaps, trend-based Fibonacci extensions, and five-wave patterns.
06:37
What is a fair value gap?
A series of three candles where the first candle's highest/lowest wick does not overlap the third candle's highest/lowest wick, leaving a gap.
09:50
How do you calculate position size to risk a fixed dollar amount?
Divide the risk amount by the difference between entry price and stop-loss price.
14:56
In the example, what was the total profit after 10 trades with 30% win rate and average win of 3.6R?
+3.8R, or $380 if risking $100 per trade.
16:45
What are the steps to build a trading strategy?
1) Observe pattern, 2) Create rule book, 3) Backtest, 4) Evaluate metrics, 5) Paper trade, 6) Go live.
19:00
What is the purpose of using leverage in crypto trading?
To reduce the required capital for a position (e.g., 20x leverage reduces needed capital from $29,000 to $1,400).
23:27
Trading as Data Filtering
Reframes trading from prediction to systematic data processing, a key mindset shift.
01:08Low Win Rate Can Be Profitable
Demonstrates that being wrong most of the time is acceptable with proper risk-reward.
01:50Psychology Over Skill
Emphasizes that mindset is more important than technical knowledge for long-term success.
13:12Math Example: Losing 70% Still Profitable
Concrete numbers show how a 30% win rate with 3.6R average win yields net profit.
16:45Real-Time Trade Execution
Applies all concepts in a live-like scenario, showing how multiple tools converge.
24:46[00:01] career over if I had to start as a beginner. Because before getting to the point of setting my trading up to be able to have between 7 to $10,000 single my 20s along with tens of thousands of
[00:14] and information that I'm going to be sharing with you in today's video. So, foundations. So, a simple way to actually understand trading, which is Then, I'm going to cover websites and tools needed to follow this process. I'm
[00:27] with trading psychology and how it was literally the most important element of someone's success. Then I'm going to explain simple trading math and the math cover a complete crash course of the most important technical analysis
[00:42] markets. I'm going to then show you how to actually build and test your own to take everything that I've showed you, apply them into real life scenarios to that by the time you make it to the end of this video, you'll have a clear,
[00:55] career. So I first want to get into explaining trading in its simplest form because there's so much information out there and it can be so confusing. This is my guiding light and my sort of north star when it comes to where I frame my
[01:08] else and be able to execute everything else. So when you're starting off, this simply neutral data. It's a representation of mass human psychology. to the data. The data doesn't care about you. It doesn't care about your
[01:23] feelings. Okay? It's completely neutral data. So, our job as traders is to take this random market data. Be able to create rules, trade criteria, a trading strategy to then be able to filter out all of the noise, all of that random
[01:36] data to then build a machine to create profit over time. That's literally all thing that I want you to really lock into your mind before we get into all do with being right or being able to predict the markets. Over the past 3
[01:50] months of trading, my win rate has been around 36%, which means I'm losing 67% really just about looking at neutral data and using this data, using trading strategies to pick key areas in the
[02:04] market where we expect price to flip, be able to buy in in hopes that the market case, if it does move in our direction, we make 5x what we were risking on the these supply and demand imbalances. We don't need to be right every single
[02:18] predict the future. This is just simply filtering data and building up a we're talking about day trading, there's a lot of math, analysis, strategy, these trades that you need to be able to learn to actually put yourself in these
[02:33] to get into. And by doing analysis and understanding the way these markets flow, be able to pick really precise areas to enter in. You see, I'm up $1600 my risk contained, allow the markets to move in my direction much further than
[02:47] what I'm actually risking. You can see I locked in 1300 here. I have $3,200 in profit. This is risking $1,000. This is not to brag, not to show off. It's understand all of this information, you really don't need to be right all that
[03:01] your process, trust your execution, and trust your analysis of the market. And possible. And the cool thing is with what I'm going to share with you, you Okay. So now I want to share with you some tools and softwares that are needed
[03:15] for the day trading process. Okay, this is what I use on a daily basis. So first Trading View. It's where we're going to be doing all of our charting, all of our trading and investing. Second thing that you're going to need is a way to
[03:27] actually execute these trades. So I trade crypto often. So I'll use blow fin trade stocks or futures. Most of our traders are trading on top where they this. Okay. And lastly, you'll need a trade journal to actually input your
[03:41] this one to you if you want to use it in just a second, but more on that later. foundation, which is Trading View. And once you create an account on Trading products and then click on Super Charts. Again, that's going to take you to a
[03:53] standard chart. I have a video explaining exactly how I set my Trading my charts up. If you want to dive a little bit deeper into that afterwards, But basically, this is going to be our trading foundation of where we're
[04:06] home base, and do all of our analysis. So when we're trading, we're effectively basically whatever investment vehicle we're trading against either another I'm trading something like Salana, Salana moves around in price and the
[04:21] dollar is fairly stable. So we're trading the value of Salana against the the stable dollar, price will go up. If it starts to get weaker comparatively, effectively why we're seeing swings down and swings up in price. It's our job as
[04:35] ourselves into these moves. So when I'm trading, what I'm doing is going over into this tab on trading view here and building a watch list of things that I Salana and Ethereum. Okay, if I'm trading futures, I have all of my pairs
[04:49] here. So I have MEES, MNQ, and then I have oil and gold right here. And this able to easily click through and keep track of all the pairs that I'm looking to reading this data, we can look at it in a few different ways. So, if I click
[05:02] over to a line format here, all we're looking at is basically the price movement with no other information. What most traders are using are something called candlesticks, which is basically showing us green candles or in my case
[05:14] price. This is the close price. This wick is the highest the price went over went over time. And then the same is true for a red or in my case a black candle, which is signifying that the price opened higher than it closed. So
[05:28] this wick representing the highest and the lowest that the price has gone over information that we can actually read about the chart based on how these little bit later. But this is primarily how I'm reading charts. Okay. And
[05:42] candles in different what are called time frequencies. You'll see on the left hand here each candle is representing 1 minute of price movement. And the same shown with nine candles here because we're on a 30inut time frame. So each
[05:57] candle instead of 1 minute is showing me 30 minutes worth of price movement. We be able to make sure that our ideas are aligning. This is something called multi-time frame analysis. I'll also be linking a video at the end of this video
[06:09] advanced topics. Okay, but for now understanding for day trading we're typically using between a 1 and 5 minute time frame which allows us to get in and this data is basically what we're going to be using to set ourselves up in
[06:23] contained and start to predict areas of the market where we expect price to flip All right, so when it comes to actually analyzing the market and finding these different ways to do this, I'm going to boil it down to the five simple ways
[06:37] trade opportunities. Okay, I have a video where I get into way more depth a little bit deeper. But the first thing that I'm always looking for is basically being able to identify trends. Okay, so we can see these sort of invisible
[06:50] levels that price tends to bounce off of that we can use this trend line tool to see where we're getting all of these contact points. And this is going to market. And this is important because this is going to allow me to basically
[07:03] see if price pushes up this way, comes back down, has a response, and then this can give us sort of key areas in the market where we can expect to get a change back in the opposite direction, which can allow us to position ourselves
[07:16] accordingly. You can see we can do this all over our chart to get general areas and bounce back off of. Okay, once touches that same exact point that was touched over here and moves down. So,
[07:29] this is already giving us a general idea of where we can be looking. More look for a ton of the time. If we see a trend developing where we're getting multiple contact points, once we get price to actually break one of these
[07:41] levels, we can actually anticipate where this next potential downtrend is going to have its last point of contact before reversing down. So you can see after drawing this critical level, price comes back up now touches the underside
[07:53] portion of this trend which you can see is a last point before making a major again can open up opportunities for us to position ourselves. So when we do see these breaks to enter in to once again play big moves to the opposite
[08:06] that I like to use is something called a Fibonacci retracement which is right here on Trading View. So if I set up this indicator, you'll see we have these a few ways, but typically if we have a trend that's moving in this direction
[08:19] that tops out here, these are our key retracement levels that we can look that we can see if price is responding well on the way up, we can expect price to And if there's a response there, we can expect price to move off of those
[08:32] expect price to move off of those levels. So we have 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 78.6. Okay. Often times with uptrends, if we're going to get a continuation in an uptrend, a response off of this 50 level is considered a
[08:45] continuation level. If we're getting a reaction down to the 61.8 level, the if we're getting a response off of here, this is a full retracement that price tends to go down to before making a full continuation to the upside. Okay? So,
[08:58] sort of as the trend is developing, I'm sort of looking at whether or not we levels already. And then once we do get the sell-off, we can look to get in on can literally find this all over our chart. So if we look at this downtrend
[09:11] contact point, contact point, and then price breaks above that level, we can now take this Fibonacci from here to here. And you can see price comes down, touches off of that exact golden ratio before having a full move to the upside.
[09:24] example where price drops underneath this trend level and comes back up, I can click on my fib retracement, start from this high point down to this point. And you can see price comes exactly up once again to that 61.8 level, golden
[09:37] ratio, responds off of the underside of this trend before making its move all you can go much deeper into this stuff, but now you're starting to understand how we can look at this randomized data and start to quantify them and find
[09:50] these key areas where there's a higher probability of getting a response off of the candlestick data, like I was saying earlier, the next probably most powerful tool that I like to use is something called a fair value gap. Okay. So what a
[10:03] fair value gap is is a series of three candles where the first candle's highest or lowest wick doesn't overlap the third candle's highest or lowest wick. So in bullish candles meaning the price is moving up this first wick level and this
[10:17] third wick level leave a gap between and this is called a bullish fair value gap here which is a level called consequential encroachment. Now often times this level is responded really nicely off of and price will pull back
[10:31] into these areas have a response and then make a continuation once again to the upside. So this can give us really high impact zones sort of in conjunction with our other analysis to once again further filter down all of our data and
[10:43] And the same thing is true with a bearish fair value gap. So if we have price action moving down one two bearish candles. We can draw from this wick to this wick. And you can see price trades back up into the midpoint after breaking
[10:55] out of this trend level before making a significant move once again to the use an indicator that populates them automatically. So you can see this sort of gives me these highlighted areas to see price sort of dip into that can give
[11:07] me these high impact areas once again to target. Okay. So you can go back to our value gap respected. Fair value gap didn't quite get touched. Fair value gap respected off of here. Price breaks underneath that trend level. Price
[11:20] make its way higher. I can take my Fibonacci retracement right here. We see our high impact fair value gap at this level. Price comes up. Comes right into the underside of this trend. 61.8 8 on our fib as well as the midpoint of this
[11:33] fair value gap all simultaneously which once again gives us a higher impact area for us to read for price to decrease and be the last sort of potential point direction. Okay, so the next tool that I like to use is something called a
[11:47] is once again using that golden Fibonacci ratio, but now we're using it The way that we're going to do this is basically by once again identifying that price breaking out of this area once again, reacting off of a fair value gap
[12:02] direction. But now, what we want to do is measure this sort of first move up click on my trendbased fib extension, go from this low up to this high point here, back down to that low. And what this is doing is taking that golden 61.8
[12:17] ratio, multiplying it by the distance of this first push, which is giving us 1618 value, 2618 values, 3618 values. Now, this is going to be paired with me looking for what's called a fivewave pattern. Now, trends typically develop
[12:30] in one, two, three, four, five waves. Now, if we see this trend sort of developing up and creating a fifth wave and responding off of one of these multiples at one of our key points, I like to use this to give me an even
[12:43] stronger indication that we are potentially at the top of a general have our trend level. You can see then price breaks down through it producing can see price comes directly into the midpoint of this fair value gap before
[12:57] also use to basically be able to read these overall trend flows and get a top out. Okay, the next most important thing to understand and this is probably your trading is understanding how to rewire your mindset and understand
[13:12] trading psychology. I promise you this is the pivotal point where I know a lot lot about trading that haven't mastered this one element and it basically makes all the other information useless. Then I know people who maybe aren't even that
[13:25] good at trading but understand this one core principle and are in a far better make sure that you lock in and understand this before we get any first thing to understand, this is what I was saying earlier. Trading has
[13:37] nothing to do with being right or wrong. So being wrong about a trade does not that's really really critical to understand. So to fully understand here. So anytime we're entering the market, one of two things is going to
[13:52] is going to reach our target and we're going to make a profit or it's going to come down and reach our stop-loss, in which case we are going to lose a time we're entering the market as a trader, we're fully accepting the
[14:05] possibility that even though we have all of our rules in place, that we have confidence and belief that our trade can move in our direction. It is very well market, the price can also move against us. And this makes it absolutely
[14:18] critical to set your position up so that your risk is contained. And in trading, we use something called risk factors. Whatever we're risking on a trade is considered negative one risk factor. whatever we're expecting to make if the
[14:30] positive risk factor. Okay. So, it's you're entering the market to figure out exactly where you're going to exit the you and to be able to enter with the proper amount of units so that the risk
[14:44] that you're putting on the table whether your stop-loss is this big or this big is always remaining at a fixed one risk factor. And there's an easy way to do a second, but I think it's important to understand how the math works behind
[14:56] risk factor, what you do is you take your entry price. So, let's assume it's 135 in this case.5. Subtract it by the gives us 5.5. And say on this trade we want to risk $100, we'll take $100 and
[15:11] divide by 5.5. And that's going to give us 18.18 units for us to enter with at this specific level. So that if price travels down by 5.5 units times however many we entered at that price is going to give us exactly the dollar amount
[15:26] trade. Obviously these numbers are as the numbers get more random. So it's important to understand that math. Okay. this, you can go into indicators, click on the inevitra position size
[15:39] calculator. You can click on your entry, click on your takeprofit, click on your amount that you want to risk. Hit apply and that's going to give you the exact quantity that you need to enter at the exact price to risk a specific dollar
[15:52] expected profit level if your trade goes to full profit. If you want access to follow me on Instagram and DM me the word tools and I'll send it over to you. doubleclick into your position calculator here, you can put your
[16:05] account size. If you want to use percent or dollar amount, say we want to risk once again $100, I can hit okay. And you can see that's also going to give you the 212 quantity to be able to risk that $100. So understanding this, you know,
[16:18] anytime you're entering a trade, you can be wrong and that's absolutely okay you into the market. Okay, that also means that losing a trade and being be a corrective action. Typically in life, we think, you know, when you do
[16:32] bunch of things or try to repair it so that that never happens again. Okay, but say we take this example where we have 10 total trades. And in this situation, 10 total trades. And in this situation, we lose 1 2 3 4 5 6 seven trades out of
[16:45] 10. But of the three trades that we do win, we allow our profits to run where win, we allow our profits to run where we're able to make positive 5.3R, 2.4R, 3.1R. That's going to mean that even though we're losing 70% of the trades,
[16:58] we know our average loss is -1R. We have a total of -7R. We have a winning percentage of 30%, our average win size is 3.6R, and we have a sum of positive is 3.6R, and we have a sum of positive 10.8R, which is putting us up 3.8R times
[17:12] whatever we're risking on the trade. So, if we're risking $100 per trade, that means that we're up $380 in profit being wrong 70% of the time. Okay? And this metrics that are really the key and all you effectively need to know. You need
[17:25] to know your average riskreward ratio and the percentage of the time that you example, if we're keeping our risk uniform, we know that our average risk is -1R and we know our average off of these totals is 3.6R. So in this
[17:40] scenario, if we have between 3 and 4R and we're winning whatever percent of the time, we're going to be somewhere in this area, which you can see is on the though when we're entering a trade, either this happens or this happens, we
[17:53] know that it's not true that being wrong about a trade is bad because it's opportunity cost. We know that losing trades are pre-calculated and built into strategy. Okay? And we also know that we need to keep our risk uniform. So making
[18:07] trade. What a lot of people will do is they'll revenge trade, right? Where their one risk factor is normally $100. But say you have your risk baked into your account on one trade. Yes, if the
[18:20] ton of money. But you basically put all of what you've been building at risk for one trade based off of your emotions. based off of your feelings. And yes, you told anyone, "Oh, I made a ton of money on the trade." They'd say, "Oh,
[18:33] that's awesome. Good trade." But you risk basically half your account, which inevitably lead you to failing over time. So, you making money on a trade losing money on a trade does not make it a bad trade. The only focus should be
[18:47] understanding this math and adhering as closely to the process as possible that second. That's going to give you all of your data and allow you to actually make into building a trading business plan and getting it from an idea to actually
[19:00] markets. So everything is going to start pattern that we're seeing over time, that's going to be step one, finding that observation. Off of that observation, what I do is then create a
[19:13] rule book. Okay, that rule book is going to be something called entry criteria. So if this, then this. If I see this, then I will do this. Once you have that group of rules, the next step is to test it in a simulated environment and
[19:25] evaluate the outcome based off of the two metrics that we just learned about. average win and average loss. And once we analyze that information, we're going profitable or if we need to go back to the drawing board until we get to a
[19:38] point where we're in a profitable area, in which case we can go to the next step going to start to use our trade journal. Okay, so once again, go in the me the word tools, you can download it, and then you can follow along. Okay, so
[19:51] back testing session. This is where we're going to start understanding our trading view on one side where we have our watch list and whatever pair we're journal on the other side. Okay, what we can do is click on this button right
[20:03] something called a bar replay mode. And we can basically go back in time and start trading from there. So I'm going to use a really simple strategy example. just for an example, but I'm going to show you how we're going to book our
[20:17] able to then go to the next step of testing. Okay. So, what I'm going to look for in this strategy is is using something called a cloud highlight RSI, market is potentially overbought and oversold. And I'm going to buy every
[20:30] time we get a signal that it's oversold and sell when it's overbought. Okay? So, highlight right here. Okay? So, I'm going to notionally buy here with a sell when we get a highlight. All right. So, we have our highlight here. Then all
[20:43] factors right here I would have made on that trade. So say I'm risking $100 on this position. That would be $948 in profit. So I'm going to click into here. September 18th which is a Thursday on Salana. Okay. You can pick your strategy
[20:58] type. This is on a 5minut time frame. This was a long say my risk was 1%. I had a win. I made 9.48 risk factors and $948 in here. Put my stop loss over that point. So we're out here when we get our
[21:12] highlight. So we made 1.3 was a short another win 1.3R $130. Okay, we have our average risk factors being produced right here and our total profit. So say we enter our next position here. So that's neg -1. So that's our first loss.
[21:26] Can duplicate my section long. Check the loss -100. So we'll buy in again here. All right. So another loss. Okay. Say we're buying in here. We have another loss. We buy in again here. We have
[21:39] another loss. lots of losses. Obviously, this is an example, but you can do this over 30, 50, 100 trades. And what we can do is click on this filter button and checked. And what that's going to do is give you your average win size. And if
[21:53] you click to unchecked, that's going to give you your average loss size, which you've observed something. You've set defined rules. You've quantified how those rules following those as stringently as possible will result in
[22:07] the sense of these metrics in terms of your winning percentage and your average doing is looking to see if you say are right 40% of the time your average win size is say three times what you're risking. That's going to put you into a
[22:21] move to the next step. So your observation is going to be your onchart see if it's even a good idea to start with. Okay, barre replay is what we just did in our testing environment to see if we're even on this profitability table.
[22:34] is something called paper trading on an exchange. And it's basically using demo funds to be able to actually trade this in real time with actually executing these trades in a simulated environment on the exchange. So when it comes to
[22:46] these trades. You can see you can click into demo trading and you can actually so say we wanted to enter this position from our back testing session. Okay, so I'd click into my never trade position size calculator. Click from here, here,
[23:00] hit apply. That would give me my quantity. Okay, so this is where I would go over, select my pair, click into limit order. I would put my entry price here. I would put my quantity at 119. I would check this takeprofit stop-loss
[23:12] box. Take profit would be 250. Stop loss would be $24,23. And you can see this is putting us at exactly $99 worth of risk because we've positioned ourselves to we're risking only $100, you'll see this is going to require a position capital
[23:27] of almost $29,000. Now, this is what's cool about cryptocurrency or using prop firms is basically you can see we can click into here basically use something called leverage. Now, if we go up to 20x leverage and hit confirm, now you can
[23:40] leverage and hit confirm, now you can see that same $29,000 position divided by 20 is now only going to require about $1,400 of our own capital. You can see if we use 10x leverage, now it's basically dividing that total needed by
[23:52] amount of leverage because you are paying the fees on the total position size, but this is going to allow me to effectively start with say $1,000 to risk $25 per trade. And this is how you can start pretty small as long as your
[24:04] process is good to be able to compound those gains over time and actually be smaller amount of capital. And you can also use demo accounts on top as well exactly what we were doing before but now executing it as you would within the
[24:18] through several months worth of data where you're collecting it making sure then actually putting money to work in the market with an actual account. But up. you have all of your infrastructure to trust your process, not trade with
[24:33] everything that we've learned, and I'm going to show you an entry model that going to show how all of this stuff comes together and how I execute in real the first thing I'm going to do is toggle on this indicator that we built
[24:46] on the private side of our trading team, which is basically going to populate criteria that we have customcoded. Okay, you'll also see that I have my fair give me some ideas. So, I'm going to be waiting for that signal. You can see we
[24:59] here. We do have this fair value gap that's already being tested into. What I level. You can see we have a high impact push through this trend. One of those fair value gaps left behind. Okay. If I use my trendbased fib extension off of
[25:12] this point in this point, you'll see that our 3618 was perfectly hit after a that our 3618 was perfectly hit after a 1 2 3 4 5 wave pattern. If I drag my fib from here to here, you'll see that our 61.8 level was perfectly hit off at this
[25:24] point. So now I know if price comes back down, we have this level of support here at the 50 continuation zone. I have the 61.8 zone and I have this bounce point set up a position here with a stop loss below that area. Price dips back into my
[25:39] trend. I can use my position size calculator for entry, take profit, say risking $100. I can enter in with my units, of my trend. And you can see that's the last area that the price went before a
[25:53] completely new direction in the trend. So even being right about one of these ideas can yield seven, eight, 10 risk factors sometimes. This is a strategy past 3 months I've been able to make just under $100,000 trading. You can see
[26:06] students using this Joe having an insane week. 3,400 6600 4200. You can see gre scope of this 32 risk factors. Once again it's not about predicting the understanding the math, understanding your system, and being able to deploy
[26:22] and like the video if you're still here. That if you want any of the tools, go in and DM me the word tools. Like I said, if you want to dive into setting Trading put the two videos here. You can check
[26:34] until next time, I will see you all in the next video.
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