Altseason 2026? Broken pattern — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:03] the market has been waiting for for three years now, when everything takes off in one day . Any coin makes x's and everyone gets rich at once . It won't be there, or rather, it's already gone, and most people did

[00:16] n't even notice it. It sounds like a blow to the saint. I understand, but here are the facts that cannot be argued with. Salaana was worth around $8 at the bottom after the FTX crash in December 2022

[00:28] was worth around $8 at the bottom after the FTX crash in December 2022 . By January 2025, almost 300 bucks. This is approximately 36 x without any declared all-season. XRP any declared all-season. XRP

[00:45] Also without fanfare and without the day X. And Bitcoin itself, from the same bottom in 2022, fell from Bitcoin itself, from the same bottom in 2022, fell from 16,000 to 126. These are Xs on a boring

[00:58] asset that everyone considers slow. And here's the wildest thing. In January 2025, a meme coin named after the politician was launched. And this alone was enough to drag Salana to a historical maximum over the weekend. That is, the X's were everywhere in this cycle

[01:15] . They simply didn’t come in one beautiful wave, but in a scattering of flashes, spread out over time. While some were sitting and waiting for the magic signal, it all began. Money has already been made on alts. And today we'll break down how it

[01:30] actually works, why there's no single all-season , where it actually went, and most importantly, why right now, in this drawdown, the old waiting system has finally broken down. What follows will be a little uncomfortable, but useful and will open

[01:45] your eyes to many things. My name is Sergey. I am the author of the SRK Crypto channel, a trader and investor with twenty years of experience, disclaimer. No financial advice in this video. Let's go. First, where did the legend come from?

[01:58] There is such an altseason index. It's simply a matter of taking the top 100 coins and seeing how many of them have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Overtake 3/4. Formally, it's an altseason. Almost no one. Bitcoin season. To understand what the market is so

[02:14] hungry for, it's enough to remember what it looked like the last time it really happened. Spring 2021. Major altcoins gained around 170% in a couple of months,

[02:26] while Bitcoin itself languished at a measly two. The total capitalization of the top 100 total capitalization of the top 100 altcoins then grew to approximately 130% of Bitcoin. That is, the alts together were worth more than the bitcoin itself. This image

[02:41] stuck in everyone's heads, just like that very season. And it is precisely this that the market is waiting for again. Now let's look at the index chart honestly. Since the end of the 2022 bear season, he has entered the

[02:53] altseason zone more than once, about four or five times. Each approach was a shot at the lions. A short wave, when capital flowed from Bitcoin into coins, and individual assets made those same X's. not one firework for the entire cycle, but several

[03:09] flashes. The problem was that the flashes went out as quickly as they had come on. In went out as quickly as they had come on. In December 2024, the index climbed almost to its December 2024, the index climbed almost to its peak, and immediately sank to 47. In September

[03:23] peak, and immediately sank to 47. In September 2025, it surged to 78 and, within a couple of months, slid back to 20. There was a short, hot week in the summer of 2025 when Ether gained more than 20%. And some networks like Sui and Sey were around 30-40, and then everything

[03:40] died down again. Those who were waiting for confirmation were consistently late. And here’s something else you need to understand about the mechanism itself. Previously, money was poured into several hundred alts at once on a wide front. That's where the effect all took off. In this cycle, the same

[03:56] flow spread across thousands of memecoins, and the main demand from large players went to Bitcoin funds. Capital has been dispersed, and instead of one powerful wave, the market is producing short, pinpoint bursts. Plus, the index has a built-in setup.

[04:12] It is calculated based on a 90-day window, which means that by its very nature it is late. By the time the altseason lights up on the screen , the wave has already been going for weeks, and half the movement is behind us. Those who enter on signal are more often met with a

[04:28] sale rather than a run-up. If something has already clicked in your head and the picture has begun to come together by this point, the best support for the channel is a like, a comment, and a subscription. At the same time, it’s a signal to the algorithm that the topic is needed. We also have a separate

[04:42] Telegram channel where we post the latest news from the world of cryptocurrency. various bonuses and promotions. Link in the description. And now for what it all started for. Why doesn't that same Alseason come and it seems it

[04:56] won't come in its previous form? The answer lies in how the market worked before and what broke it. The old mechanics looked like this . Bitcoin is growing and attracting all the attention. His dominance is climbing upwards. Then big capital and the crowd take

[05:11] profits, exit the bitcoin market in droves, dominance collapses sharply, and the freed-up money flows into litas. This decline in dominance was the trigger for the alt season. Now, what is happening in reality right

[05:25] now? Bitcoins are not held by those who will sell them tomorrow. Almost every fifth bitcoin in existence is already frozen by companies, funds and governments. About 4 companies, funds and governments. About 4 million coins for 2, hundreds of structures. There are

[05:39] about 1.5 million in ETFs alone. There are more than a million on the balance sheets of public companies . And separately, the US stopped selling confiscated Bitcoin and began holding it as a strategic reserve. Here's a live example

[05:53] so it doesn't sound abstract. One single company, the very same One single company, the very same Michael Saylor firm, is sitting on more than 600,000 bitcoins. And not just sitting there, but buying more right during this drawdown at over 67

[06:09] thousand per coin. This behavior is exactly the opposite of panic. This is not the behavior of speculators who will leave tomorrow, but of those who have come for years. Add to this one more point that is often forgotten. In addition to the frozen

[06:22] stacks of the big guys, between 3 and 4 million bitcoins are simply lost forever. Forgotten wallets, lost keys. That is, the real free circulation is even less than it seems. And corporate purchases at the beginning of 2026 outpaced all

[06:38] new mining by almost three times. The coin is being washed out, dominance no longer collapses in the old way . And since this is the case, the trigger of the previous Alseason no longer [ __ ] in the usual way. You can wait forever for the cherished day X. Let me be

[06:55] honest, without fairy tales. This is a trend, not an iron law. They also know how to iron law. They also know how to exit funds, and some major players have already slowed down their purchases. But the direction is visible to the naked eye, and it is

[07:07] naive to count on the old scenario. And here is the main conclusion, which makes it worth watching to the end. If there is no point in waiting for magic, then what is there instead? The logic turns 180°. Don't wait for the mythical day when

[07:22] everything will take off, but calmly build a foundation precisely when it's scary and no one wants to. And it's really scary now . The fear and greed index is hovering around the mid-twenties. This is extreme fear. Although a week

[07:37] earlier it was noticeably higher. And here's what's interesting. Historically, it's the darkest moments, when no one wants to touch crypto, that later turn out to be the best moments to enter, not the worst. This is not a guarantee and not a buy today signal.

[07:52] keep in mind as the crowd disperses. What should I type that is large and functional? Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salan-level networks , BNB, ChainLink. Gradually, little by

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[09:13] to earn money on it. And when they say foundation, it is not an empty when they say foundation, it is not an empty word. Here's an example. In 2025 alone, Salana added more than 11,000 new developers, second

[09:28] only to Ethereum in terms of their influx. This is the basis for the price. A live construction project, not a promise from a chat. But during the growth phase, when waves of alts do occur, the work is different. Don't jump on the hype bandwagon, but enter selectively based on technical analysis when

[09:43] the coin has made a good correction and is starting to reverse. And going out when sales start is exactly what normal trading is all about, without waiting for a miracle from the sky. Now let's be honest about the risks, because without them, all this is only half the truth. The

[09:57] same coins that were distributed by the X's were then folded with the same force. were then folded with the same force. After the peak, alts easily lose from 50 to 90%. And a significant portion of those that thundered to their peaks in 2021 never

[10:12] to their peaks in 2021 never returned at all. And even tougher. Of the dozens of super-promising coins trumpeted in Telegram channels, usually only one really takes off. The rest just

[10:25] usually only one really takes off. The rest just fizzle out and end up at -90, or even drop to zero. Therefore, the focus is not on chat leads, but on the foundation, on projects whose prices have a real basis. There remains one question that is

[10:38] probably already on the mind. How can you catch the moment when a major player really starts to gain position? Not in words, but in fact, by the movement of volumes, by the behavior of the glass, by the recruitment metrics. The topic is alive and kicking,

[10:53] but that's a whole other story that deserves a whole video. It can't be summed up in two sentences . If you're interested in learning more about these tools , leave a comment below the video. This will be shown and released in a separate video. And for those who need to set up a

[11:07] company in the Help for Trade ecosystem right now, without months of independent work, we'll do it for you. Top traders there are already tracking where large capital is being accumulated, running coins through technical analysis, and posting trading setups rather than blind

[11:23] copy, but well-reasoned, no-nonsense scenarios explaining the logic behind entry, where the risks lie, and where the potential profit lies. In fact, all the routine work that was discussed has already been done and laid out on the shelves. The link

[11:39] and details will be in the description below the video. To put it briefly , there is no single treasured al season. And, apparently, it will no longer be in its old form. There are waves, there is a foundation that is built on

[11:52] fear. And there is discipline instead of guessing. The market is currently at rock bottom, and it is precisely these moments that are later remembered as the best entry points, but only by those who acted and did not wait for a miracle. If the video explains the topic, a like and a subscription

[12:08] really help the channel, and a comment can help you decide whether to make a separate video on the kit's tools. And, of course , good luck and financial , good luck and financial well-being to everyone.