MLB DFS Strategy: How to Become Profitable on DraftKings (Full Guide)

[00:01] right, but [music] I still lost money," this video is for you. Because winning an MLB DFS has nothing to do with predicting what happens, and everything to do with how you build your lineups. Most MLB DFS players understand

[00:13] baseball. They know matchups, bullpens, weather, impact of which stadium the game's in. That's not the problem. The problem is they're playing DFS like season long fantasy. Today, I'm going to show you the system profitable players

[00:26] use. not picks, not locks, but a repeatable process that works over an entire MLB season. This is the same framework that I've used every single slate to have won over $100,000 playing MLB on DraftKings. Before we talk about

[00:39] stacking or projections, we need to talk about contests. There's really three talk about here today. That would be large field GPs, single entry GPs, and cash games. The large entry GPs are going to be your 10,000 plus entry

[00:54] going to be your 10,000 plus entry contest. usually 150 max, especially at ones that are going to have the massive payouts. Um, think your 100k, 200k payouts to first place. These are going to be the big contest. So, really

[01:07] knowing which contest you're in should impact how you build your lineup. In these large contests, it's going to pay to be different. Everyone knows the yes, that may be the most likely outcome, but how can you maximize your

[01:20] lineup when that doesn't happen? that's really gonna influence the lineup that example. If I remember right on this lineup, the it was a three-game slate from the Padres's against the Diamondbacks. Well, I decided I was

[01:37] going to fade Ud Darvish and stack up the Diamondbacks who ended up scoring 12 runs on this slate. So, because of that, I took the next two best pitchers, Logan Webb and Show Otani. Great pitchers in their own right. And look what happens

[01:50] in this lineup when that chalk pitcher fails. I maximized the positive leverage that I found on the Diamondbacks on this slate and put it to great use for a 50k

[02:03] and a 20k finish in two different contests. And some of these single entry contest often they can still be anywhere from a th00and to maybe 5,000 players but the single entry aspect of it people get scared to get different. It's okay

[02:16] to get different and still kind of target those leverage spots, but you aspect. But take a look at this lineup for example. I went with two pretty high on pitchers and probably pretty

[02:30] expensive pitchers if I remember right. Garrick Cole at 80% and you Darvish at 43% on. And Garrick Cole didn't even do that well. But because I knew this lineup had expensive, high-owned pitchers, I really had to target a

[02:44] lowown stack that had the potential to score a lot of runs while being underowned. As you can see, I went with the White Socks who scored 16 runs on this night. And yeah, some of the pieces were high on your mean Mercedes or Tim

[02:57] Anderson, but look down in the outfield. I also added Danny Mick at 4% owned and he hit a grand slam this night. So really targeting those teams allows opportunity to maybe find some lower on players or lower projected or lower

[03:14] salary players that still have opportunity for high outcomes. And look at even one of my one-offs, I even mixed in an Austin Riley at 1%. A great hitter in his own right. And at 1% his solo home run really put me over the top in

[03:29] this lineup for a 10,000 first first place finish. That's something I've single entry is people are scared to get different because these while they may be single entry these contests can still

[03:43] have a significant number of entries. So you might not need to go crazy in every you might not need to go crazy in every lineup spot but maximizing leverage in a few spots really can lead to a higher payout and a higher ROI in the long run.

[03:58] And the last one would be the cash game. So that's what everyone knows um typically as your double ups or your headto heads. These are strictly value and optimizing for the highest likely outcome. You do not care about um

[04:13] anything, you want to maximize ownership. So it's totally it's a totally different lineup construction than the GPPS. So knowing which contest you're in prior to building your lineup has a huge impact on who you're going to

[04:28] put in there. And honestly, the easiest way to become profitable is stop really dialed back my cash game entries games have become significantly harder and I was showing greater success in

[04:40] GPPS. If you're finding there's a certain style that doesn't work for you, quit playing it. Maximize your bankroll in the contest that you feel like you have the greatest edge. Okay. Now, when it comes to baseball, the biggest thing

[04:53] lineup is stacking. Stacking is non-negotiable. You're not building a lineup. You're building a bet on a single game environment. So what that can have up to five players from the same team in your lineup. The reason

[05:08] this is such such a important strategy in MLB DFS is you don't have to predict eight different teams or eight different single players that are going to hit a home run. But what you can do instead is really target one specific game or maybe

[05:22] two specific games. If you're going with a 53 stacking or a 4-4 stacking a 53 stacking or a 4-4 stacking construction, you in those few games, you can really hit the upside if one of those teams go off. So stacking is

[05:35] really important because it's reduces the number of things you have to get right. If I'm sitting here trying to predict eight different single players score double digits, that's nearly impossible. you might as well just go

[05:48] make a home run parlay and have your luck at the sports book. But the way you construct your lineup, you can really target one or two specific teams and if they go off, capitalize on that outcome and that correlation between the players

[06:04] leaderboard. Think just think if a leadoff hitter gets walked, the second all of a sudden the three-hole hitter comes up and hits a three-run homer. You get the home run, the three RBI's from the guy that hit the home run, a run

[06:19] scored, and a run scored from the your first two players. These are the keys to MLB DFS to really maximize that outcome. Now, all of a sudden, you get more at Honestly, you're going to get the starting pitcher out quicker, so you'll

[06:35] which can just lead to more scoring. So, this is super important when constructing your MLB lineups. Okay, some of the key concepts that profitable players actually optimize in their lineup. It's not just highest projected

[06:49] points. There's so many great projection systems out there. Anyone can build a lineup that projects well. Now, the first thing is expected value. So, this is ceiling relative to the cost and ownership for specific player or

[07:04] specific team or stack in your lineup. Some of my tools over at president.com really hit this hard. I really want to maximize is this team or is this stack or is this player optim in optimal lineups as much as their ownership? So,

[07:21] let's just say for example that I have Shi Otani at 30% optimal tonight um as a starting pitcher. Well, if he's owned that 10%. That is a massive spot to get on Show Otani where we can gain some positive leverage because his optimal

[07:37] percentage is greater than his ownership percentage. But on the flip side, let's percentage. But on the flip side, let's say Garrick Crochet is 25% optimal and 40% owned. There's no reason to play him. Yes, he's more likely to be optimal

[07:50] than some other pitchers on the slate, but is he going to be owned more than but is he going to be owned more than his optimal rate? That is a key piece of information to use when building your lineups. And that's something I really

[08:04] focus on within my tools and within my data that has helped me become profitable over the years. And with that too comes roster construction. Maybe two expensive pitchers are um are projected

[08:18] really high that night and their ownership reflects that. Well, that also going to be owned. and let's say the Daughters and Kors or something similar is going completely unowned.

[08:31] Well, a way you could find it is finding pitchers that are positive leverage but cheaper. And this will allow you to fit some of those maybe higher optimal stacks that are going under under the radar. So, everything kind of fits

[08:45] pitchers, your stacks, and then ultimately your one-offs. And the biggest thing too is you have to play multiple slates, multiple nights. This process over time will prove to be valuable and produce positive ROI. But

[09:02] if you're just picking one day a week and hope you, you know, you hit the jackpot, that's just not a way to win. There's been plenty of times where only a couple slates have paid for my entire

[09:14] season because I hit those high upside lineups or high high upside payouts when I least expected it. If you're only optimizing projections, you're competing with thousands of people doing the same thing. You need to take these strategies

[09:28] and apply them to build your lineups in an optimal positive expected value way. when trying to implement these new strategies is when and how and how much leverage to really inject into your lineup. So leverage isn't about being

[09:43] different everywhere. It's about being different where it matters. So like I mentioned earlier, you don't have to go off the wall and fade the top players at every single position. But doing it in a smart way can really maximize the

[09:58] this lineup for example. If I remember right, I think this was like a pitcher ownership was crazy high. I actually just took the two best pitchers. Spencer Strider against the A's. Yeah, he's 89%. My optimal rate

[10:11] So, I still thought he was a great play at 89%. And Luis Castillo 50% on against the White Socks, who actually scored nine runs that day, but still put out a fair score with 19 fantasy points. The real difference maker here was my stack.

[10:27] Look at the Tigers on my team. They are extremely low on across the board, all with single-digit ownership. So, because I took the two highest on pitchers, I had to go off the board with my stack. And that led me to one of the highest

[10:41] And that led me to one of the highest leverage, low off the board stacks on the day, which was the Detroit Tigers. So, when those two pitchers when the two chalk pitchers performed as expected, it the difference in the contest really

[10:54] came down to who maximized their stack and got different from the field. And that's exactly what happened here with my Tigers. So pitcher ownership is one of the main places that can get inflated, especially on smaller slates.

[11:07] Pitching is one of the most predictable things, certainly relative to hitters. We have a 100 events for a single pitcher. So we have a pretty good idea how his game's going to go relative relatively speaking. Whereas a hitter,

[11:20] they have about four maybe five chances to reach their true outcome or true projection for that game. So they can just swing so much more. So, sometimes it's okay to take a pitcher that's high on, but just know by doing that, it's

[11:35] going to impact the rest of your lineup and you need to find a way to get different and a way to maximize leverage elsewhere. So, if you've been around DFS at all the last few years, you know the biggest thing right now is Sims. A lot

[11:47] Sims, you can't win. And Sims are incredibly powerful tools, but they don't create edge by themselves. My greatest success in MLBDFS has come from this system and not from the sims. The sims are a powerful tool at increasing

[12:01] efficiency and increasing volume if you were to multi-enter or really kind of apply these concepts at a more broad and general level, but that doesn't that doesn't solve everything. There's still amazing amount of potential by applying

[12:15] these concepts at an individual lineup level or by hand. as long as you're in the right mindset and applying these concepts of expected value and leverage and optimal rate to your lineup. So really your strategy of your system with

[12:29] regards to MLBDFS creates your edge. Whatever tools you're using just enhance that. But a lot of it still comes back to the user to maximize those tools to when I say system, I don't mean autopilot lineups. just spit out um 150

[12:45] and plug them in and ride off into the sunset. I mean, a real DFS system that narrows your decisions, enforces strategy, and just removes emotion. So, the system that I've used to become profitable in MLB DFS is really, like I

[13:00] contest first. And from there, I identify viable a viable pitching pool. maybe a couple at the high end, a couple at the middle end, and then a couple low end if I need a cheap pitcher that I'm

[13:12] willing to play. And then I really like to target that fiveman stack that I want to include in my lineup. Factoring in cost of some of those players and the positions available if I choose to go to that stack. Here's another example of

[13:26] really maximizing leverage in my hitters because I took Kevin Gman and Max Herzer are great pitchers, and their ownership really showed that on this night with 39% and 27% ownership. So, I really had to get

[13:42] different at my hitters. But the A's were under owning course. I'll take anyone in course, even if it's the Oakland A's at the time. So, yeah, I had thought they were still under own. Even Brett Rooker at 17% or Raone Lauraniano

[13:57] at 14%. You can see I tried to mix in JJ JJ Blade at 1% even though he got a zero. But here in this instance, I actually played a 521 stack. And the second stack I took was a unowned Royals against Minnesota. I was able to take

[14:12] their top two hitters, Muel Garcia and Bobby Wit Jr. at 1% and 2% ownership respectively. And they really catapulted this lineup to the top of the finish. And the way I have my tool set up really helps you see that with the

[14:27] way I have the positive and negative leverage. So really this is just the optimal percentage minus by the minus the ownership percentage. So by doing this you're able to see am I playing too many negative leverage players? If so

[14:40] maybe it's time to get off that chalky pitcher and really go off the board to the highest leverage pitcher. If my stack is positively leveraged, then maybe I'm in a good spot to stick with the chalky pitcher because I've already

[14:53] reducing ownership in choosing that stack. So, there's no problem committing to the higher own pitcher in this instance. Really trying to maximize those raw point potential that we talked about earlier. So, every slate becomes

[15:06] the same question. How do I allocate risk today? How do I build my lineup to maximize the contest I'm in? and what is the most positive expected value decision I can make for each one of these lineup spots in this contest I'm

[15:18] at depending on the slate specifics. So stick around because in the next few videos I'm going to break this down step by step while most players lose money. How to approach cash versus GPP and how data and tools fit in without over

[15:30] complicating things. Because at the end of the day these concepts aren't over overly complicated. You can apply small changes to your lineup each and every day to maximize your ROI over the course of the entire season. Now, I will say if

[15:43] faster, I've built tools that automate the boring part so you can f focus on decision-m. Maybe you don't know what the optimal rate is for a specific that for you and I went ahead and uh

[15:56] can see right away who is positively and negative negatively leveraged on a use my [music] tools, subscribe if you want more DFS strategy concepts like profitable player, not a guesser. [music]