Mortgage Stocks Surge, Others Decline as Fed Chair Odds Shift

[00:03] group called the Houthis. Uh the US government here taking these steps to entities. They say there's a network here of front companies and individuals throughout the Middle East. They're operating uh in the UAE and elsewhere.

[00:18] by the Treasury Department to try to freeze assets and stop some of that oil money from moving to the Houthis to benefit them. Guys, back over to you. >> Okay. So, a couple updates here. So, not only here more sanctions on uh Iranian

[00:33] related oil transports, uh which which is something that's been argued by think tanks that that's exactly what the Trump administration should do. They should administration should do. They should focus on uh seizing the money lifeblood

[00:46] of Iran rather than striking. Though I still think uh a strike wouldn't surprise me, let's put it that way. But um this uh this Hasset news is kind of interesting. So, let's look at uh poly market for Federal Reserve uh or or Fed

[01:01] chair and uh because I really don't want it to and uh because I really don't want it to be wash. Uh but he's now be wash. Uh but he's now at 54%. Yeah, look at that betting

[01:15] market shift right here. So, Kevin Hasset just tanked. Wash just moved down Hasset just tanked. Wash just moved down and Waller also moved up. I still think and Waller also moved up. I still think Waller is the the play here. Like if I

[01:29] was playing placing bets over here, I'd be betting on Waller. I think slowly Trump will wake up to realize Waller's the guy. But, you know, I've been saying that for months and and so far, you

[01:42] know, everybody keeps putting money on Walsh and I think it's [ __ ] and they made a whole video as to why. But then again, you know, I'm not going to put it uh past uh uh what's his name? Uh Trump to do something [ __ ] [laughter]

[01:58] to do something [ __ ] [laughter] So, you know, who knows? [clears throat] Uh Uh uh.

[02:20] let's go explore a little bit what's happening uh in the day. The one of the one of the things we're finding right now is we're seeing mortgage companies rise while at the same time you're getting the cues tanking on this no wet

[02:35] blanket asset news. Uh the mortgage companies, you know, I own all three of these right here. Rocket Figure LDI. So, I want to be clear. I'm I'm certainly do think that the next 6 weeks will probably still be glorious for these as

[02:52] uh as this MBS buy down does end up reducing rates temporarily. Uh I I am still surprised surprised uh that uh Hasset didn't get the job

[03:07] uh that uh Hasset didn't get the job here. So, this does create some more Fed uncertainty. And I think that's a little bit of what we're getting here in markets. This is something we talked about uh let's see here. Fed, this is

[03:22] as well in the course member live stream. Let's just touch on a little bit of this. So Fed, let's say that uh Trump of this. So Fed, let's say that uh Trump will not pick a Hasset

[03:38] will not pick a Hasset uh as Fed chair. Uh, so you know, poly uh as Fed chair. Uh, so you know, poly market freaks.

[03:54] Oh, I actually I should be able to just Can I I don't actually No, I don't think I can embed. Yeah, I can't embed in this yet. It'd be kind of cool just to embed Trump not picking the fest. Okay, so my take here,

[04:07] take here, uh, markets still think, uh, WASH is the uh, markets still think, uh, WASH is the guy. I think that's a horrible and guy. I think that's a horrible and bearish choice. Uh, in fact, I made a

[04:19] bearish choice. Uh, in fact, I made a whole video on it. Uh, see, reserve Trump wash. Let me see here.

[04:33] on it. cuz it was probably it was when he did the interview with him. So Trump interviews Waller. It was December 19th. Okay. So let's go back to

[04:49] December 19th. Okay. So let's go back to December 19th. Let me see here. Okay, if this was the right one,

[05:08] I'd like to link it so you could all see it. it. Wsh. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. This is the video where I absolutely destroy Kevin W. Uh, I'm

[05:22] going to change the title just to make it a little bit easier to find. So, I'm going to go we'll just call it um Come on. Sometimes doesn't let me. We're having trouble saving your video. This

[05:38] having trouble saving your video. This is stupid. There we go. Uh Kevin Trump is stupid. There we go. Uh Kevin Trump picking Kevin Worsh for Fed chair would picking Kevin Worsh for Fed chair would be a disaster.

[05:56] there. That way it's nice and easy. And I'll link it at the top here. Uh here's I'll link it at the top here. Uh here's my video.

[06:10] it's going to be at the top of the Meet Kevin app as well on the data page for today. But I do think it's worth getting educated on why I think Kevin Worsh is a disaster. And if you watch this video, you'll actually look at these betting

[06:24] that's stupid." Uh, you know, I I think a logical person would say that Wor a logical person would say that Wor should have a 0% chance. Uh, [laughter] but um, you know, betting markets don't seem to agree with that. So, oh well.

[06:41] Okay. Now it's also worth knowing that right now the other uncertainties we we have no uh se until March uh 18th right uh so no

[06:57] uh se until March uh 18th right uh so no SCP in January and we expect or I I should put it this way we expect or I I should put it this way uh markets broadly expect the Fed will

[07:11] announce a pause. Uh Q's have been allergic to 617 or Uh Q's have been allergic to 617 or sorry 627 likely because we we've kind

[07:23] of come used become used to rate cuts, right? rate cut trajectory. Trump may put a tariff on countries that

[07:37] don't go along with Greenland. Oh no. Okay. And Kevin Hasset was good on TV. I actually want to keep you where you are. Comment from Trump just now regarding Hasset.

[07:55] Trump says Trump to Hasset. Trump to Hasset. I want to keep you where you are. Remember, you can always get this in the Meet Kevin app for free. But anyh who,

[08:08] uh yeah, this is um these are the cues over today with the exception of the mortgage companies. Everything's rolling over on this uh this Fed talk. I think because people really saw Hasset as a

[08:23] wet blanket that was almost certain to get in and he was going to shill for get in and he was going to shill for rate cuts. Uh Hasset was rate cuts. Uh Hasset was almost a useful idiot. I'm sorry. uh

[08:36] [clears throat] but uh would have you know pushed to tank rates without much thought in my opinion that Myin at least makes a opinion that Myin at least makes a strong argument for rate cuts.

[08:52] You know I would actually be happy with Waller or Myin. Waller or Myin IMO would be excellent choices.

[09:04] And if I were Trump, I would pick Myron. If I were Trump, I'd pick Myron because that would be the most aggressive person uh to shill what I want with logic,

[09:18] uh to shill what I want with logic, right? Uh

[09:35] All right, let's close some of this out. Let's go see if Nick T is saying Let's go see if Nick T is saying anything about this. And then let's also get into something here.

[09:50] So, oh, Twitter is not loading. Oh, that's Twitter's down. I was going to see if Nick T had anything to say, but I guess Twitter is not loading. Is Twitter not loading for some of y'all as well? I

[10:05] mean, it's no problem. Honestly, I prefer to use any other resource anyway. Uh, let me go see what the suits are saying. Dollar gains as Trump seemingly rules out hasset.

[10:19] Okay, so yeah, Twitter is definitely down. So, let's go to you up. Oh, yeah. So, the dollar is moving up. uh dollar moving up implies

[10:33] lower rate cuts in the for future, right? So Bloomberg picks up on dollar rising suggests lower

[10:45] picks up on dollar rising suggests lower cuts in future post asset denial. Okay, I've got

[11:04] concern for the dollar. Comets slightly pull forward expectations for Walsh or Waller. Both seen as materially more credible. Both seen as materially more credible. That's fair.

[11:23] Okay. All right. So,

[11:44] for you. Twitter is still listed as the host as opposed to X. Interesting. Oh, but then again, that I did go to twitter.com. difference. Oh, it does. If I go to x.com, it works. Oh, it's the redirect

[11:59] might be broken. No, it's just pin wheeling on X2. Both of them are. Yeah, it's not loading. They're both down. Okay. Well, whatever. Okay. So, now let's go see if the

[12:17] Okay. So, now let's go see if the journal is saying anything about this. A massacre happened. Authorities shut down the internet. Then large scale

[12:29] down the internet. Then large scale killings began. This is terrible. trillions of real estate over the next decade. Dude, they're going to sell it.

[12:45] decade. Dude, they're going to sell it. They're going to sell it and buy stocks. one of the largest concentrations of private wealth in history. Now that

[12:57] it's having a ripple effect on the high-end property market. high-end property market. $38 trillion.

[13:12] Wow. Be a lot of money uh for lending and uh and agents.

[13:29] transfers, blahy blahy blahy. Okay, whatever. whatever. The rich staying rich. Hallebertton arrivals can't wait to return to Venezuela. Yeah, Hallebertton

[13:41] yesterday, we saw that as well. They were quite bullish. the Fed outside of the limited information we've already seen.

[14:01] Especially with X down, I can't see what Nick T's what's on Nick T's mind.

[14:13] credit markets on complacency. Let's take a look at that. hedge funds a painful lesson. Yeah, another big failure.

[14:27] It just feels like some of these things are just feel recessionary. You know, it's like, man, this big company is just going bankrupt. And then even some of the uh takeout loans are going, you know, down like

[14:39] we've seen with First Brands. But anyway, let's see what the doomers But anyway, let's see what the doomers say here.

[14:52] President Trump expressed reluctance towards nominating Hasset for Fed chair, Friday if we were to leave his post as NC would deprive the administration of one of the most powerful messengers on the economy. I actually want to keep you

[15:07] where you are if you want to know the truth. If I move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much. I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me.

[15:20] His shill. Trump doesn't want to lose his shill. [laughter] Basically saying the quiet part out loud. Uh, that's quite interesting. I like that. Uh, Trump doesn't want to

[15:37] lose his V-shaped recovery shill.

[15:53] we might not get any pick confirmed anyway You know, that's also worth paying attention to. So, uh, meanwhile,

[16:05] attention to. So, uh, meanwhile, uh, less of an issue, but still an uh, less of an issue, but still an issue. Uh, senators suggest they will issue. Uh, senators suggest they will freeze nominations for Fed chair until,

[16:19] um, Trump promises, uh, Fed independence, you know, dropping uh, Fed independence, you know, dropping the investigation, DOJ probes. What company are you using to get landlord insurance? I'll I'll let you

[16:33] know once we go through this uh this new uh we're going to a big master policy companies we use right now. It's a pain in the butt and so we're switching over to a big master policy. So we'll let you know once we figure it all out but

[16:48] you ask because that's what we're actively working on right now. President some quoted and and they're pretty good. So, president didn't address the controversy in his Friday comments, but indicated his selection process hasn't

[17:01] his nominee for Fed chair in the next few weeks. We don't want to lose him. few weeks. We don't want to lose him. We'll see how it all works out. We'll see how it all works out. Very interesting. All right.

[17:24] That's interesting. I was just at a Sky Harbor hanger. Sky Harbor Group, a builder of exclusive hangers, is turning to tax exempt mun bond market to borrow to tax exempt mun bond market to borrow 100 million as it seeks to expand. Wow.

[17:37] Yeah, they're building hangers like crazy right now. Everybody wants a bird. You know what I want? You know what I want? Green tea in my Hulk cup.

[17:51] or should I say water in my Hulk cup with green tea. This is such a hack. Now I don't have to get up for like four cups. You know how to

[18:04] enhance productivity? $70 on a little induction cooker. $70 on a little induction cooker. Uh okay. So what about the economist? Uh okay. So what about the economist? They have anything for us today?

[18:19] what the collapse of Iran would mean, you know, innovations, energy, finance, inflating the AI bubble. Well, let's see what they're talking about here. Also,

[18:31] what they're talking about here. Also, the info, Yeah, no more. Oh, yeah. I heard people were bagging on this uh

[18:45] uh Mr. beast investor conference or whatever with BitMine. I didn't watch it. Does any Did anybody know about that? But yeah, no more coffee, that? But yeah, no more coffee, unfortunately.

[19:02] coffee. It's just I'm trying to cut it out of the daily. out of the daily. Okay, let's take a look at this global. Oh, Fed Collins. Okay. I know that's not really an

[19:16] update. Yield premiums on corporate debt have narrowed to 103 basis points, the have narrowed to 103 basis points, the lowest levels since June of 2007.

[19:29] Right. So, in other words, is this complacent? Uh-huh. thanks to you, sir. Oh, well, you're welcome. Hey, hopefully we could we welcome. Hey, hopefully we could we could get them get get more more hot

[19:42] Uh, love the Hulk mug. Still using my Freddy Freddy Kuru. Oh, let's go. Yeah, I I really uh you know, I like these plays a lot. Uh, you know, Figures up another 9% today. LDI's up. Rocket's up. You know, Rocket, I think, is at

[19:58] like 52 weeks highs right now. You whereas like Microsoft's going to be at 52- week lows soon, which is kind of crazy to think. And then, you know, the Q's, look at look at the Q's failure at 627. I mean, this is pathetic. It's like

[20:11] the glass ceiling, you know. I think it says Hillary Clinton right there. I don't know. That's probably a bad reference. Uh, okay. So,

[20:25] they also must accept smaller amount of compensation against risks.

[20:37] Complacency should be the scariest word in markets right now. Yeah, I I agree. All you can do is not lean too hard into high-risisk areas. For now, many money high-risisk areas. For now, many money managers continue to dive into the rally

[20:50] rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and some other banks. Such easing could help the global economy navigate threats from President Trump's tariffs. Earlier this week, the World Bank raised its forecast for global real GDP to expand 2.6%.

[21:06] sustain that momentum with efforts to prevent inflation from quickening again. into the limelight as the US Department of Justice pursues approach of Powell.

[21:19] talk about the fact that fundamentals do justify corporate balance sheets are reasons for credit spreads being so tight. nothing priced in in terms of geopolitical but geopolitical regularly

[21:34] geopolitical but geopolitical regularly is uh you know is a is is an opportunity is uh you know is a is is an opportunity uh usually

[21:47] complacency right companies are raising money investors are flushed with cash spreads have gotten tighter valuations higher usually concessions most of the outlook and news coverage,

[22:03] blah blah blah blah blah. All right. Well, that's pretty boring.

[22:15] plan at Davos. This is like uh in the other plan, the uh this is like in the Republican uh proposals. proposals. See here.

[22:35] right? Didn't they talk about that here? Pretty sure they did. they said there it is, the home savings

[22:48] account to make it easier to save towards owning your first home. So, that's where we first saw it. Somebody's like, "Twitter is down." Yeah, I couldn't be more happy. Like, my

[23:03] happiness seems to go up exponentially when I'm not on Twitter. It's a when I'm not on Twitter. It's a cesspool. Uh, so, President Trump will next week unveil a plan for letting savers and 401k retirement plans use

[23:15] some of their money for down payments on their homes. Well, technically you can by borrowing against it already. Oh, but you're going to let people take the money out. Okay. So, that's a little different. That's cool.

[23:39] with good reviews that you could get along with. You know, you could obviously probably shop a couple, but uh you know, I I wouldn't get too too crazy you can work with who's going to, you know, get the get the job done. who's

[23:54] upfront with you. Give them your paperwork rapidly and your process should be easy. Most people lag on giving lenders their paperwork and then closing?" Well, cuz you're not providing your paperwork.

[24:08] Uh president will put out the final plan in Davos. in Davos. Uh-huh. you take 10% Wait, what? Suppose that you put 10%

[24:22] down on a home and then you take 10% of the equity of that home and put it in an the equity of that home and put it in an asset. Put it as an asset in your 401k. asset. Put it as an asset in your 401k. Then your 401k will grow over time. Oh,

[24:35] interesting. The money that you take out basically that wealth they still want to be in your retirement account. That's interesting.

[24:54] on a million dollar home to make math easy. That's $100,000 that your 401k owns of that home. And if that doubles in value, that's still that's now 200k of value for your 401k. And

[25:10] [clears throat] the idea is that if you sell that property, your 401k would get reimbursed. [sighs] But that could then potentially also delay taxes on that sale

[25:27] delay taxes on that sale until you draw, which could delay taxes on that sale until you draw from your 401k. What what's the age of withdrawal?

[25:39] 401k withdrawal age. You can typically withdrawal age. You can typically withdraw after 59 and a half.

[25:52] before that. Okay. 59 and a half. I can never remember that number. Uh to borrow, there are often fees. high cost of housing, blah blah blah. Trump

[26:09] cost of housing, blah blah blah. Trump cards, right? All right.

[26:31] I'm okay with that. I I don't see a big problem with that. over here. It's live today. >> Today live from Post 9 of the New York Stock [music] Exchange, Carl Cinia has the morning off. Today, the White House

[26:43] looks to strike a deal to curb the impact of AI [music] demand on power natural gas producer in the United States, [music] CEO of EQT, predicting a 20 to 40% increase in demand for n gas in the near future.

[26:57] analyst with a warning [music] about further downward pressure on the software sector. He lays out some names that you may want to avoid. House's latest push on affordability centers around the auto [music] sector

[27:10] as well, which we've been all over. Former Ford CEO Mark Fields on what the problem. >> Right now, markets uh have been under a little bit of pressure. The S&P actually backed to about the flatline. Had a late

[27:22] day fade yesterday after it was up about 3/4 of 1%. um made five near approaches of the 7,000 mark in the last 6 days. Hasn't been able to quite get there. Uh see small caps outperforming once again. 10-year Treasury yield popping above

[27:37] >> Yeah, let's look at I want to look at the 10 two really quickly. purchase. Should I get negative points on my loan in exchange for credits refinancing lot in two years into a construction loan. Yeah, probably. I

[27:52] construction loan. Yeah, probably. I mean, sounds reasonable to me. uh at 62 on the 102 spread. Makes sense to refinance a 41 mortgage and pull out 80K of equity to pay off my 56% student loans. I mean, you're going to take the

[28:04] whole mortgage and turn it into 5 to 6% then that doesn't sound like you're >> Making some dovish remarks, saying the Fed should remain ready to adjust policy towards neutral unless the job market improves. And she has some downbeat

[28:17] views on the job market. She says the Fed should avoid signaling a pause here without identifying what conditions have indeed changed and the Fed should continue to focus on employment risks preemptively supporting the labor

[28:30] market, she says. So obviously not happy or not satisfied with the 75 basis points of cuts from last year. businesses may need to begin laying off workers and notes that private payroll in fact may have started to fall in

[28:44] recent months using some other data uh uh in in addition to the job data and said it could continue to deteriorate in the coming months. She says quote the labor market can appear to be stable right up until it doesn't. Her approach

[28:58] to monetary policy says remains intentionally proactive and forwardlooking. inflation on a sustained trajectory, she says, down towards the Fed's 2% target. She does um some work where she takes out the tariff effects.

[29:10] She says underlying inflation mostly reflects tariffs and the effects of them will fade over this year. She sees policy as modestly restrictive and expects the economy to expand at a solid pace. Deregulation, lower taxes, and a

[29:26] more favorable business climate, she says, will boost supply and offset productivity. She's concerned, however, that disappointed news on AI could lead that disappointed news on AI could lead to a sharp decline prices. So Sarah, I I

[29:39] think predictably we haven't heard from uh uh Bowman since September on monetary policy and she's leaning against some of the commentary we got yesterday, which was all in favor of a pause and maybe an extended pause from three Fed

[29:52] >> So does it does this suggest we could get more dissents if they do pause in get more dissents if they do pause in January from someone like her? It's possible. I think I think you make a good point, Sarah, that that Bowman

[30:06] may be setting herself up here to say, "I am not in favor of the January pause, especially because we don't get any more jobs data other than the job the weekly jobless claims until then." So, she wants to be very proactive and has a lot

[30:20] Making some really cautious and concerning remarks about the outlook for >> Yeah. Great. because I because I assume Myron will descend for a cut if they if they pause and so it'll be interesting to see if others follow that lead.

[30:34] about this breaking news that we got last the race for the next Fed share because President Trump actually said this about Kevin Hasset. Listen, want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to

[30:49] keep you where you are if you want to know the truth. Kevin Hassid is so good. them, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much. I would lose you." It's a serious concern to me.

[31:03] >> And just like that, the betting odds really changed for the next bed share. really changed for the next bed share. Hasset odds plunged on Khi and it and it certainly helped the chances of Kevin Worsh. um the two Kevins is what sort of

[31:15] you want to know the truth, he said, "Like to keep you where you are so you can keep communicating." What? >> Yeah. poly market is uh still pushing war here up another few points in just the last few minutes since we've been

[31:28] watching it. Uh huh. All right. And yeah, I'd like to get a Wall Street Journal reaction, but I might take a hot minute before we get that, especially with X down because

[31:43] usually you could just go see what Nick T's up to, but h whatever. Uh okay, so let's go see what else we have here. Let's go pop open some stations. See what's going on out in the world. Okay, so Politico,

[32:00] dumbest thing I've ever heard. Republicans amp up resistance to Trump's Greenland push. Yeah, pissing a lot of people off, but you know, what are you going to do?

[32:19] Okay, then we have Want a university without cancel culture descri

[32:38] blast. What? wrong on many geopolitical issues facing the world. Fumed Ryanire chief Michael

[32:52] Ooliri said in an interview, "The outspoken CEO's comments mark a rare corporate world where business titans usually aim to avoid offending Trump." Right. But Ryanire isn't based in the

[33:05] Right. But Ryanire isn't based in the United States, [clears throat] so matters less. I think Trump is historically wrong on Russia, Ukraine. He's historically wrong on tariffs. Um I mean, yeah,

[33:20] this this person's just speaking the truth. Uh who did grant the president countries aren't pulling their weight. That's also fair on defense. That's

[33:32] stepping it up in fairness because of Trump. So, you got to give credit where credit's due. Uh, if he were American, he would be a natural Republican. party led by Trump. I don't have any faith in or trust in Trump, who has

[33:45] liar. It's not the first time he's lambasted Trump. war in Ukraine. You've got Trump in the White House. No, let's regulate air

[33:59] travel again. He said, "No, let's reereeregulate effing air travel [laughter] with stupid travel taxes." Okay. The air industry, I don't even understand how companies like United

[34:12] Airlines are at all-time highs for their stocks cuz it's a very small PP stocks cuz it's a very small PP business.

[34:26] Blah blah blah. talking shop of idiots. talking shop of idiots. A lot of this has to do with their local fees and taxes, so I don't think any of this is that horribly surprising.

[34:39] Whatever. Okay.

[34:58] Germany's farr right loosens its embrace of Trump. Oh, interesting.

[35:10] close ties to the Trump administration, but public sentiment in Germany is increasingly turning against Donald Trump in particularly of his talk of seizing Greenland

[35:28] promise to not interfere with other countries and he has to explain that to his voters. I mean that's kind of a good point. You know that that is what Donald Trump campaigned on. I'll end the war in Ukraine before I

[35:44] even get into office but within the first 24 hours. first 24 hours. And no new wars.

[35:58] here and the ends do not always justify the means. Wow. Getting a little bit of the means. Wow. Getting a little bit of criticism here.

[36:17] All right. BBC vows to lead Venezuela when the right time comes. Yeah, we'll see.

[36:40] France warns US Greenland seizure would endanger EU trade. Porsche suffers biggest sales fall since 2009. Why are we comparing everything back to the wonder like where are we right now? I mean, there are reasons to be bullish,

[36:53] mean, there are reasons to be bullish, there reasons to be bearish.

[37:13] Court, Sinclair alleged that Grock created an AI image of her in a bikini earlier this month. Yeah, just for research purchases. Wait. Well, that's wrong. Yeah, that's a

[37:28] problem. I thought a recent photo of her cuz that's what everybody's been doing. Uh, where's the law? I don't see the lawsuit. lawsuit. Lawsuit filed in New York State Court.

[37:43] I mean, we don't I don't think we really have to look at the complaint, do we? Let's see. Because I guess like how do you determine damages for that New York State Core? There's got to be some kind

[37:56] State Core? There's got to be some kind of punitive.

[38:09] canceled it. I I don't know. It's It's hard to tell. But uh let's see if we can figure this out. Does anybody know how to navigate this crap? They don't exactly make this easy. Search as a guest. You do not have to log into

[38:23] search. Okay. Party. Oh, no. I want her name. Party. Oh, no. I want her name. Let's see here.

[38:35] this filing start date. I'll just go this here. Oh my lord. At least one character of the first name. What difference does it make

[38:47] people? Both start and end dates are required. Oh my gosh. Who writes these required. Oh my gosh. Who writes these this code?

[39:10] Order to show cause proposed with temporary restraining order. Ha, I got it. All right, I'm going to download that.

[39:28] Ashley San Claire lawsuit against X.

[39:46] we go. So, let's see what they say. turn a blind eye and even celebrate the sexual exploitation of women and children. The children part definitely not good. Uh,

[40:07] altered deep fake content of children covered in semen. Well, that's not good. Uh women stripped naked in sexually explicit bikinis and Holocaust survivors in bikinis in front of concentration camps. Wow.

[40:23] camps. Wow. Uh Elon Musk demonetizing her ex account and generating multitude more images of

[40:37] her including unlawful images of her in sex positions covered in seaman virtually nude and images her of her as a child naked. Such images are de facto a child naked. Such images are de facto non-consensual but grock and x ai had

[40:50] explicit knowledge that St. Clair was not consenting. X is liable for harassment. Wow. It'll be interesting to see how this actually plays out like what So she is

[41:04] actually plays out like what So she is she's 27 design defect in the product which certain errors and emissions

[41:18] insuranceances can cover manufacturing defect

[41:34] did not remove the images deceptive practices non-consensual deep fake takes. Yeah, the thing is AI is getting good to where it is. It is does get concerning like you know what's real and what's AI

[41:49] anymore. Do Tucker Carlson to meet Trump in West Wing today. Oh, that's in West Wing today. Oh, that's interesting.

[42:03] EXO is a duty of care. Unrush unjust enrichment. Sure. I mean like more people on X because they're trying to get you know generated content. Uh I think at [clears throat] one point

[42:19] I saw this stat somewhere. It was like [clears throat] [clears throat] uh from memory uh X generated thousands uh from memory uh X generated thousands of images per hour of women while other

[42:32] [cough and clears throat] generated around 80 images per hour during the same time frame. Sampled

[42:45] This is, you know, it was I think the Times did that analysis. Uh, I should I should honestly try to find it. [clears throat] Maybe if I just

[42:57] maybe I could like Gemini that and be like, "Hey, where was this article? Where was the article from that said something like

[43:11] We'll see if I can find that in the meantime. I'll let that run." Okay.

[43:23] Infliction of emotional distress, dissemination, Punitive damages. She wants to be compensated

[43:40] And then all women attorneys filed this. I wouldn't be surprised if like uh a woman law firm reached out to Ashley and [clears throat] you know, I don't know that I would have picked a phone number

[43:56] 666." Honestly, that's kind of interesting. But uh yeah, so these these Brooklyn attorneys filed this very interesting

[44:08] filed this very interesting [clears throat]

[44:21] So it was ah yeah

[44:34] it was it Ah found it. It was Bloomberg. Oh why is it not loading? Oh there we go.

[44:47] it not loading? Oh there we go. [clears throat] Here we go. [clears throat] Here we go. There it is. 6,700 images per hour. While Genevieve generated 79 per hour

[45:00] during that period. Wow. So, just for comparison, where did I say that per hour?

[45:12] Here we go. Generated 6700 deep fake websites around 79 per hour during the same time frame. And that was

[45:27] Bloomberg. There we go. I always try to update my memory with like the actual stat. I feel like it's somewhat helpful. I feel like it's somewhat helpful. Okay, what else?

[45:42] [clears throat] Let's see. Ah, there we go. There's the Wall Street Journal article I've been waiting for. Nick T didn't even write it.

[46:04] Uh, but this we've seen. That's it. Yeah. Okay. It's not a lot of information there.

[46:16] Video analysis of ice shooting sets light on contested light on contested moments. Oh, yeah.

[46:32] Where is that? It. Let me Let's see. I want to see. got the audio functioning. This is a cell phone video filmed by the ICE agent

[46:46] who shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis. The White House press secretary said this footage reaffirmed President Trump's previous claim based on other videos that Miss Good quote didn't try

[46:59] videos that Miss Good quote didn't try to run him over. She ran him over. video might look like that's the case. But when analyzed alongside other angles

[47:13] of the shooting synchronized by the times, a much more complicated picture is revealed. More footage will likely emerge, but the currently available >> Yeah, it'd be nice to get some more angles as well,

[47:25] >> but let's see here. >> By millisecond, how agent Ross put himself in a dangerous position near of escalation. The footage does provide some visibility into the positioning between the agent and Missg Good's SUV

[47:37] and the key moments of escalation, and it establishes millisecond by millisecond how agent Ross put himself in a dangerous position near her vehicle in the first place. About 3 minutes before the shooting,

[47:51] footage shows Miss Good and her wife parked their maroon SUV in the middle of the street and begin honking and heckling. impeding and blocking immigration agents.

[48:08] around the SUV, including this Chevy Tahoe driven by Agent Ross. Tahoe driven by Agent Ross. When he exits, he's Agent Ross. He's already filming Miss Good's SUV, not with a body camera typical of most law

[48:21] enforcement, but using a cell phone in his hand. It's not clear why interactions with Miss Good. >> That's fine, dude. >> And her wife. >> That's okay. We don't change our plates

[48:35] >> There's verbal jabbing. >> It'll be the same plate when you come talk to us later. That's fine. US citizen, former [ __ ] driver. You want >> We see the agent switching the phone from his right hand to his left. as he

[48:49] Tahoe. >> I say go get yourself some lunch, big >> During this time on the other side of the SUV, two new agents arrive in a pickup. We see Miss Good motions them to go

[49:04] We see Miss Good motions them to go around her. the [ __ ] car. >> Over the next six seconds, >> we see one agent reaching into the SUV. Miss Good starting to drive, then Agent

[49:19] Miss Good starting to drive, then Agent Ross firing three shots. >> I'd like to just jump in and say those two extra shots.

[49:31] I I have a hard time like there's I think there's a lot of debate around the first shot, which is, you know, right about here. It's a little tough to even see the angle of the tire here. first shot is

[49:44] already highly questionable. But those extra two shots, I don't know how you could justify that because she's clearly out of danger or of the second two shots, right? >> One agent reaching into the SUV, Miss

[50:00] Good starting to drive, then Agent Ross firing three shots. That's the first one. Okay, that's the first shot we saw. But these extra two right here, which happen now, I don't know

[50:15] that that's like an execution. The extra two. Now, let's go back and analyze some of the key contested moments of the agent cell phone video alongside other footage to break down what happens during these

[50:28] critical 6 seconds. >> Like, I think that the extra two nobody not going to come down to the extra two. It's going to come down to the first one. Here, the agent's cell phone footage

[50:40] shows he's moving directly in front of the SUV as it's reversing and rotating towards him, initiating a three-point turn, apparently to leave. Law enforcement officers are trained to avoid doing this because it puts them in

[50:53] danger and often leads to the use of force against drivers. The cell phone is focused squarely on Miss Good. She looks down, shifts into drive, and begins agent. Cut to this high angle and zoom in. We

[51:09] can make out the agent's body and his arm filming. We can also see at the same time he's beginning to lift his other arm. On these cameras, we can see what's happening around Agent Ross. The other agent is yelling orders and reaching

[51:24] into Miss Good's SUV. Her front tire spins as she continues turning right. Agent Ross is at least a few feet away from Miss Good's SUV. He does not appear to move out of the way. As the SUV rolls forward, the agent

[51:40] unhol his firearm. We see in his cell phone video, at this moment, the camera drifting off to the left. The agent is no longer focused on filming. It's at this point in the cell phone video where it first looks and

[51:54] sounds like the agent's getting knocked violently, >> right? Because he's holding the phone in his left hand. On the other camera, we can see what's happening. Here is Agent Ross aiming his gun at Miss Good.

[52:09] And here is his outstretched arm >> leaning toward her vehicle, Tahoe. >> His phone, which is gripped in his left hand, flips over when the agent's hand lands on the front of the vehicle.

[52:23] There's an audible thud when it hits. The camera rotates up towards the sky. getting knocked over, we can see that's not the case from the other angle, near the headlight, >> his torso and legs away from the

[52:39] vehicle. >> In the cell phone footage, the agent's face flashes on screen, then it goes black. >> The other angle shows us why. We can see the agent's foot sliding, his hand

[52:52] bracing against the SUV, and his arm getting pressed into his chest. It is impossible to determine if this is happening because of the SUV's movement >> Oh, yeah. And then they said that I guess he had uh internal bleeding or

[53:06] something like that, which um I don't know if that's from potentially here his elbow whack in his chest or what. >> I see asphalt or more likely both. And limited quality and availability of footage is whether the agent's upper

[53:22] body gets swiped by the vehicle as his left foot slides back. left foot slides back. This moment is when Agent Ross fires. We see the other agent pull back from the SUV. Both of them stumble,

[53:35] apparently slipping on the ice. This is also the moment many have said looks like Agent Ross getting run over. And it does when watched at full speed. But looking more closely, we can see in multiple angles that there's a visible

[53:50] gap between the vehicle and his legs, indicating his feet are positioned indicating his feet are positioned outside the SCB's path. interesting for courts to decide [clears throat] because clearly here,

[54:06] you know, she's she's given the order to get out of the car here, right? At this point, she's given the order to get out of the car. And so technically she's being detained. So if you're being detained, you

[54:21] probably shouldn't hit the gas and floor it. Um that's a big failure right here. You know, obviously ignoring the fact that we're also

[54:33] stopped in the middle of the road. Uh but that's a problem. But that that detention right here is what got her to say, "Nah, f this. I'm out of here." And

[54:45] uh uh and then of course that led to the uh uh and then of course that led to the uh to the shots.

[54:59] Oh, did Active Self-P Protection do a video on it, too? I I like his channel. video on it, too? I I like his channel. Uh he's uh he's got some good vids. Although I think they've had like an army of other people start doing uh

[55:13] >> today with great trepidation but an earnest desire to educate and help. I bring you the videos that have been >> Wow, he's changed his hair a lot. He head. >> At least so far. Here at Active Self

[55:27] >> At least so far. Here at Active Self Protection, I am links are in the description like always to news stories and RAWs and and it

[55:42] doesn't show a whole lot here that we haven't already seen. Uh and agent I morning saying, you know what, I want to make the national news, end my career, and and maybe end up with charges. No question of that. I I I I just I I don't

[55:57] did that here. And now we have multiple famil family's lives who are changed forever. >> I will say this, I think at the end of evidence, okay, just looking at the videos and and let me tell you, when I

[56:10] get involved in court cases, there is far more than just the video evidence, forensics, there's all kinds of additional information here that can be make or break in cases like this and change the facts significantly. Okay?

[56:23] So, this is tentative conclusions only based on what we see here and what my background, my education, and my experience. Was this a lawful stop? I

[56:35] that >> Yeah, I I would agree with like telling her to get out of the car was fair, right? So, they had probable cause to detain her given that she was clearly impeding the flow of traffic. I agree

[56:49] with that. So that that makes the the fundamental actions of the law fundamental actions of the law enforcement officers lawful. Was uh for question. >> Um was Miss Good involved in a crime?

[57:01] officers. That's it's it's a misdemeanor. It's not the >> Yeah. Yeah. End of the world. This isn't like a death sentence kind of an issue. like a death sentence kind of an issue. Okay. Was she trying to to murder an ICE

[57:14] agent? I don't think intentionally, but >> I agree with that, too. I don't think I don't think she was trying to ram the guy. I agree with that too. >> That doesn't really matter quite frankly. What matters is what does he

[57:26] perceive in the moment? And al also very true. Is this a threat to your life? He doesn't know which way the tires are turned, right? Like for all he knows, the tires could be turned right at his body. He doesn't know. You know that

[57:43] creates that creates an in the- moment oh [ __ ] factor. What were when were those shots? Could a reasonable person put in the position of officer RDE reasonably believe that their life was at risk

[57:57] >> that's what a jury is going to end up deciding >> circumstances. I think the answer to that is yes. I think that was his life think if we look at the 0.5 seconds beforehand of when he received that

[58:10] stimulus and then when the shot breaks, he's still on the front quarter panel. Yes. And there's also a delay, right? Like there's oh my gosh, I'm going to get run over to pulling the trigger. You know, that might be half a second, but

[58:25] it's still a delay. So, that's also a good point. And again, you have to remember the cop has no idea, the ICE agent has no idea which direction those tires are. Uh, now we could see her turning her wheels,

[58:41] that as the wheels turning from the left to the right or from the left to the middle. It's a lot going on really quickly. It sucks. of the vehicle. We can see here that that first shot absolutely went through the glass and

[58:56] as a right-handed shooter, he's still in the front of the vehicle because of the the the hole pattern there of the shot. >> Uh and then again, shots two and three all came in one volley. And that again

[59:09] is time to not only start shooting, but time to stop shooting. And that can take three to four to even five tenths of seconds. Yeah. It just it it just doesn't I don't I don't know about that that I that's where I that's where I

[59:23] have the problem. And again, I I don't think this case is going to come down to, you know, were the second and third shots justified. I think it's going to come down to was the first shot justified. The second and third shots

[59:36] when you're spun out of the way, that's that's a hard one to justify. It just I don't think even reasonable shooters look at that. and and say that

[59:48] those extra shots were were necessary to if the threat is, "Oh my gosh, I'm getting run over and then you're clearly next to the car holding the gun at the side of the window." Shots two

[1:00:03] and three don't look good. But this is going to be a case about shot one, even six, for that stimulus to to go through and for the hand to stop shooting after >> I just don't know if I agree with that. I think they'll probably have to get

[1:00:16] like experts and um you know what's it called? Uh uh like biological and neurological experts to opine on that one to stop shooting comes in. So I I I think that that is those number of shots given that is probably a single

[1:00:31] stimulus. I just shot bang bang bang and then as soon as I saw her driving off I stopped because we only use force according to ISIS policy. according to ISIS policy. >> Did did stop once the car started going.

[1:00:44] uh when our life is at risk and and it looks to me like his use of force was in policy. I do not believe that what he did here was will likely meet the standard of criminal behavior. I think >> at the end of the day, I I I don't like

[1:00:57] any of this stuff. The whole situation is awful. Okay. The whole thing I wish could have been avoided. And again, go to your legislator, talk about, hey man, if I don't like the way that this is is, you know, h being handled by our federal

[1:01:09] >> well. I think also there's an element here of like training, right? like, hey, maybe don't stand in front of the car. Um, you know, there's another element there, too. But, uh, yeah, I mean, this is going to be a case that comes down to

[1:01:21] interesting to see how it plays out. It's, uh, you know, there a lot of arguments to be made. Oh, wow. Figure. Look at that. Uh, twos. Yeah.

[1:01:34] Over 12% now. That's incredible. Uh this is also very interesting uh because this has been one of our calls in the uh Meet Kevin Alpha Report. If to use the uh birthday coupon before that expires. You can also, by the way,

[1:01:48] if you join the Me Kevin Alpha Report, then you could bundle up and join the uh Reinvest AI and get a a better deal there uh if you and get a a better deal there uh if you use the course member code.

[1:02:06] Well, there's no question of that. But just like act of self-p protection says, just because you're blocking the road and committing a misdemeanor doesn't mean you deserve to die, right? So, you

[1:02:20] you kind of have to like take it all part by part. That's going to be a tough part by part. That's going to be a tough one.

[1:02:32] then we have how's Bitcoin doing? Still on its breakout trend over here. You know, I I do wonder how much of this though is just Michael Sailor's pumping. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a lot

[1:02:46] I wouldn't be surprised if it was a lot of it. guess I guess it is up 100%. That's kind of shocking. A full double, huh?

[1:03:09] Uh, somebody says it won't even go to trial. I doubt that. I actually do think it'll go to trial.

[1:03:25] And the real question is the first shot. And would a reasonable person standing in front of the car, ignoring the fact of why he was in front of the car, ignoring the fact of why she

[1:03:39] Giving each side a benefit of the doubt there. That moment, the question comes down to you're standing in front of a car and somebody's hitting the gas. You have no idea if they're pointing the wheel at you or away from you. That's

[1:03:53] the tough one. That's going to be what this comes down to for a jury. That'd be my take. Uh, okay. So, what else? Let's go see if there's some other fun

[1:04:09] Let's go see if there's some other fun videos.

[1:04:27] Uh, Americans are priced out of car ownership.

[1:04:42] >> Welcome back. Real estate mogul and entrepreneur Grant Cardone hoping to change the game of investing with new plans to combine cryptocurrency and real estate into >> That's right. cuz he's pushing his uh

[1:04:55] his fund where he does like I don't know what it is 40% real estate 40% Bitcoin or something like that and debt maybe it's like 30 3030 I I don't know what >> how do you combine real estate with crypto tell us your plans

[1:05:09] >> mind you Cardone just wants to sell his whole business to Wall Street as soon as >> we're basically taking large real estate complexes that really understand anything about Bitcoin anyway which is kind of entertaining

[1:05:22] bandwagon. >> Have uh income on them and combining them with Bitcoin to give us a situation where we have both liquidity and illquidity. The Bitcoin doesn't cash flow Marie as you know, but the the

[1:05:38] housing does and it's one of the lowest sharp scores in the world is apartment complexes. That's why so many insurance companies very very stable asset class, a way to protect your capital and get cash flow. And then you combine it with

[1:05:51] Bitcoin that is very volatile and very liquid, you get something that would normally do 12 or 14% that could potentially do 35% a year and be a very safe investment. [laughter] Guys, you're going to get 35% per year

[1:06:07] [laughter] >> This is a cloud show. And we're we're about to talk with the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, and we we're going to ask him to lay out how digital assets will change and and change the way

[1:06:22] the future looks like when it comes to crypto and digital assets as the Senate and the House try to zero in on the regulatory framework around this new >> Yeah. Well, I can tell you, Maria, uh, President Trump and the administration

[1:06:38] is very aggressively looking at how the American people can have their money, American people can have their money, their financial system stable and doing their financial system stable and doing well for them both in tokens and Bitcoin

[1:06:51] and the cryptos and also in housing. the cryptos. [laughter] asking, "Hey, how how can we loosen up this housing situation before?" Um

[1:07:05] >> please don't tell me they're asking Cardone for advice. The guy who says, "Don't buy your own real estate, just invest with me." Like I I have always said on this channel that you should buy your own real estate before you invest

[1:07:21] maintained that. I still maintain that to this day. >> Pal leaves in May. Uh and also the tokens came up and so you know the banks are fighting back on Coinbase providing a yield on tokens I think and believe

[1:07:35] >> somebody's got a question here. Kevin is reinvest app eventually going to tell us why certain properties are more likely and less likely. Yes. Uh in fact once our valuation AI comes out it'll actually tell you by sorting it based on

[1:07:47] net worth. So, if you think about it, our AI is going to be able to sort every single property that's on the market in the United States by how much net worth it could generate for your pocket.

[1:08:02] That's insane. So, that's really powerful. Uh, nobody's doing that. Uh, we we think uh the product is is fantastic and we're really >> Frink has said this as well. All assets will be tokenized in the future. We're

[1:08:19] looking at actually both going public with our Bitcoin real estate strategy and then tokenizing the real assets themselves and having both a public >> and a tokenization. So this >> tokenizing the real estate itself is is

[1:08:33] not that easy because each property is unique. You know, it's easier to do that >> This has happened. I'm I'm 67 years old. is a new world of finance for all of you seniors out there or older people. Look,

[1:08:47] the world is going to change in finance just like it did in cars and phones. because I I think that's what Coinbase believes as well that all markets are by that? How does that work? We'll get a a piece of one share, a token of one

[1:09:02] piece. Yeah. How does that work? >> So, so imagine we just did a a large project, Maria. It was a $366 million project. We bought it from from Blackstone out of bankruptcy. We would take and if we wanted to just

[1:09:15] for simple keep it simple, we would turn that into 366 million tokens. So imagine that into 366 million tokens. So imagine someone in Canada or or Costa Rica or Singapore wanted to be part of Grant Cardone's real estate Bitcoin hybrid,

[1:09:31] but they can't they can't do it because they don't have access to either the deal, the fund. they don't live in the United States or uh they don't have United States or uh they don't have $200,000. Well, they can now with $1 a

[1:09:43] position in that fund because the coin allows me to to fractionalize the allows me to to fractionalize the investment down to tiny pieces that make uh that basically democratize. >> It's it's not it's just a tokenization

[1:09:56] like shares, you know. I don't think this is really a big deal. Um,

[1:10:10] hold on a sec. Uh, one sec. Uh,

[1:10:39] Okay. Anyway, where were we? >> a person that's not involved in the stock market because of their financial uh ability or inability. >> Well, the president has lots of plans to

[1:10:54] He's pushing to lower mortgage rates, making more affordable to actually buy a home. And we just spoke with White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hass, and he broke news to me, telling me that the president is going to announce this

[1:11:07] next week. His plan will allow Americans to tap into their 401ks, to buy a home. He'll also make an announcement in Davos about it. And I'll be speaking with the president while he is in Switzerland next week uh in my special interview

[1:11:20] talking about all of this. But mortgage rates came in at a three-year low as of rates came in at a three-year low as of January 8th, 6.16% on a 30-year fixed and Donald Trump should be given credit for that. They were in our offices on

[1:11:34] ideas? President Trump really wants to loosen up the uh the housing market." I said, "Yeah, look, you got two million homes for sale right now. The new homes are selling for less than the existing homes. Why don't why don't you guys look

[1:11:49] at taking capital gains and extending that from 500,000 to 5 million? >> 2 million homes for sale right now. The new homes are selling for less than the

[1:12:01] existing homes. Why don't why don't you guys look at taking capital gains and extending that from 500,000 to 5 million. Uh that means most Americans would sell their home not not super rich people but

[1:12:15] with no capital gains that needs to be expanded at some point. And then number two extend >> he's not wrong about this. As much as I think Cardone's a shyer uh you know that 500k exemption has been the same

[1:12:31] forever. Uh well for a long time you know decades. Uh and I don't think it's been inflation adjusted ever. So he's not wrong that it needs to expand up to 5 mil is probably not necessary, but you probably double it pretty easily.

[1:12:44] >> The 100% bonus depreciation that I know Trump loves. He loves this idea. big impact. By the way, >> you're seeing companies right now trying to write off everything. They can they can write off, you know, equipment. They

[1:12:59] things that was not possible before. That's going to be huge in terms of the impact on earnings. >> Yes. So, why not extend it to you to the single family home buyer? Right now, you write your house over 27 years. Why not

[1:13:12] >> Oh my god, Cardone. You do not write your own home off over 27 and 1/2 years. You can't depreciate your own home. Holy smokes. How does this guy have two nickels to rub together? This guy's a [ __ ] That's not how

[1:13:28] depreciation works. You can only depreciate investment real estate. You can't depreciate the home you live in. Oh my lord. Uh and and when we're we're talking about investment real estate. And you can't accelerate the

[1:13:42] whole damn thing either because you can't depreciate land at all. Maybe you can't depreciate land at all. Maybe you could cost segregate 35% of a home and then you could write that off uh the short-lived assets by 100%. Uh that's

[1:13:56] that'll work out to maybe a third of the value of the property. Oh my gosh. it to >> Okay. >> It would be a huge thing. would that would be big. Grant, >> this guy just makes stuff up as he goes.

[1:14:12] you're a California guy. I mean, much of Malibu, California is still not cleaned up after the series of devastating wildfires. It includes 2018 Woolsey fire, last year Pacific Palisades fire. What's your reaction? Are you still

[1:14:26] there? What can you tell us? >> Well, 12 months. Yeah, it's been a full 12 months. They still will not allow me to fix my home. Okay. My home's suffered smoke damage, fire damage. It's the last standing

[1:14:41] fire damage. It's the last standing house on Carbon Beach. There was 18 home permit. But if they won't let you fix a home that you own, you actually don't home that you own, you actually don't own the home.

[1:14:55] >> I Grant Cardone. >> All right. That was ridiculous. All right, what else?

[1:15:19] piece from Hasset really quick because that is interesting. Housing. Okay, so this is Okay, so this is Trump uh Hasset says Trump

[1:15:34] Trump uh Hasset says Trump may pitch using 401k funds to put down payments uh on homes, not borrowing. And that 10%, let's say, stays with the 401k. That's

[1:15:50] what's implied. And that was implied in this piece right here. Um and then Cardone vid

[1:16:09] Um in the same video, Cardone fails basic uh depreciation math. uh he does make a fair point about increasing the uh homeowner exemption

[1:16:28] from 500k. He says to 5 mil which is a little loony. He says to 5 mil way too much He says to 5 mil way too much but uh increasing I agree with

[1:16:43] and I wouldn't be surprised if they try to pull that off. So, let's put those couple notes in here. Okay. [sighs]

[1:17:10] over now. That's interesting. I want to see this. get to defend that position. Pennsylvania car, >> Fox News confirming at least one aircraft carrier is in route to the

[1:17:22] Middle East with other military assets from air, land, and sea expected to begin flowing into the region in the coming days and weeks. The White House still leaving the door open though for a potential strike.

[1:17:34] communicated to the Iranian regime that the kill if the killing continues, there will be grave consequences. The president and his team are closely options remain on the table for the president. Only President Trump knows

[1:17:48] what he's going to do and a very very small team of adviserss are read into his thinking on that. Senior fellow at the independent women's forum and member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. K Ahmed joins us now. Dr. Ahmed, thank

[1:18:02] you so much for being here. Uh so the president is sending military assets to the region and all options meanwhile of Iran's corrupt and excavated economy. It is imperative the United States stands with the Iranian people and I do believe

[1:18:16] the president will make the decision to strike ballistic missile uh launchers, manufacturing capabilities, drone factories, um a number of other assets to begin with, which can be readily targeted by the United States without

[1:18:31] >> it's kind of like ah crap, we don't have a carrier in the region. Let's uh let's get the carrier in place and and then we'll strike Iran. That wouldn't surprise me at all. Uh carrier on the way or carrier and

[1:18:46] Uh carrier on the way or carrier and route in route we'll say uh carrier in route in route we'll say uh carrier in route to Middle East interviewee here suggests Trump will end up striking.

[1:19:00] I agree. So, as thousands of >> Hold on, we're going to go back to that >> ground troops or any kind of invasion, which would be unacceptable for the president and the American people. Regimes don't die overnight, but this is

[1:19:14] Regimes don't die overnight, but this is a dying regime. And if we fail to stand with the Iranian people who are being targeted by snipers, shot in the face and genitals, murdered in their cars, um meanwhile, we have an unknown body count

[1:19:28] meanwhile, we have an unknown body count which exceeds 10,000, some say 12,000 already killed, then we will go down in history as not standing up for the dignity and nobility for almost 100 million Iranians who deserve better.

[1:19:42] >> Yeah. And that same Wall Street Journal report says that there is also a belief be stalling for time in order to give military assets enough time to move into place. There was also this other report, Dr. Ahmed, yesterday uh about a phone

[1:19:56] call that President Trump had with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And that reporting says that the Prime Minister encouraged President Trump not to strike right now. And one of the reasons is because he's concerned that a larger

[1:20:09] conflict could be sparked as a result of a strike, which seems like a unique position for the prime minister to take considering he himself has led the charge on doing that very thing. So what do you think about a potential larger

[1:20:23] conflict to be uh manifested after a strike in where the prime minister stands right now? >> So a couple of things. First of all, while assets and ships are on the way, the United States has an extraordinary

[1:20:36] military presence and support from the Kurdish part of Iraq where we have our biggest assets in Heriel. So, we are ready to strike with imminent proximity.

[1:20:48] Secondly, nobody understands the Iranian threat better than Israel that's been threat better than Israel that's been the recipient of Iran's tremendous proxy wars through Hezbollah and Hamas. And so as well as the disruption of Syria by

[1:21:01] Iran and Lebanon by Iran, all of which has uh surrounded Israel with this awful conflict. >> However, we don't know what's coming the day after in Iran. But I do have confidence in the Iranian people. They

[1:21:16] are highly intelligent. They're part of a 5,000year civilization. Every Iranian that I talk to detests the tyranny they lived under 50 years. 50 years. 51 years

[1:21:28] >> And that's the whole regime going back to 79 is what they're saying. All right. >> Because he deserves it. >> Oh, this is on Venezuela. >> Okay. What else?

[1:21:44] What else? Let's see here. All right. Anything else in the way of money? Money. Money. Any money news?

[1:21:59] Economist. Greed has long been a catalyst for mean, people want to make money, but I greed as it is people wanted to make money. That's like goes back to the

[1:22:13] caveman instinct. Uh,

[1:22:25] Okay. In California, gold rush prospectors developed water cannons to blast hills away in search of ore. Yeah, that's smart. In America, the Yeah, that's smart. In America, the mortgage boom, banks build mad cap loan

[1:22:39] securization machines to keep the credit blender bender rolling. Sure. biggest constraints in the AI bonanza. That's like a minor term right there.

[1:22:53] Energy and credit. Energy is literally a bottleneck. Gridlock. Literally. That's That's fair.

[1:23:13] to smaller, less creditworthy data center developers. That's not good. Elon Musk thinking outside the box

[1:23:25] pioneered bring your own alternative to grid-based bring your own alternative to grid-based energy. Literally tucked in gas turbines and engines trucked in. Yeah. Yeah. It's

[1:23:38] kind of smart. People are upset cuz you're like, "You didn't get permits." But, you know, you just basically created your own facility. Okay. What's their bottom line on this?

[1:23:51] Frankenstein finance. They're not the energy markets. Bring your own power data centers spillovers from the frenzy of innovation. We markets. They're in a good place to raise money now that AI investment can

[1:24:05] no longer be self-funded. But the spillovers may also be dangerous. Only a few firms are making reliable profits from AI, like Houseack. If that does not change, there is a risk of a credit meltdown that could rock the

[1:24:18] broadly. The world will need a two new type of ingenuity at picking up the pieces. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I agree. Uh I mean, but this is this is just the, you know, forever black swan that

[1:24:33] you know, forever black swan that everybody's worried about.

[1:24:48] okay. So, let's see here.

[1:25:06] in Oh, no. Wait, was it? Yeah, it was. Okay. And then what does the information Okay. And then what does the information say about this regarding Bitmine

[1:25:20] mine is investing 200 million into Beast Industries. Pivot. You know, I heard a lot of people were dumping on this conference.

[1:25:41] pitch. I actually agree that this is probably like a marketing pitch for uh for people to buy Bitine, especially younger generations. Let me

[1:25:53] see here. What was that investor conference? Bit mine investor. What was it like a call or I heard something about it. annual shareholder meeting. Oh, here we go. [music] Oh, that's sounds like a Mario Kart jam

[1:26:09] Oh, that's sounds like a Mario Kart jam out. [laughter] An hour and a half. I might uh that would make sense. First,

[1:26:21] uh when we made our first presentation about Bitmine because it really crushed everything else. >> Uh this is shilling for Bitcoin. Where's >> Uh this is shilling for Bitcoin. Where's the beast part? um formed bitline. I

[1:26:35] want to give you an update in progress about the alchemy of 5%. about the alchemy of 5%. Maven when it launches is but tether >> hold on I'm going to cheat. I'm going to go to the transcript.

[1:26:50] go to the transcript. Uh transcript beast.

[1:27:11] Confusing. Okay. We made a $200 million investment into Beast Industries. I would say if someone said, "What are you expecting to accomplish?" If this was just like, "Hey, I'm gonna

[1:27:24] make a $200 million bet into Beast." No brainer. Okay. Because he is uh I'm because he is >> Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. What did

[1:27:37] he just there? Bitmine and beast industry substantial call option value on future consumer services developed by each. Bidmine doesn't develop consumer each. Bidmine doesn't develop consumer services.

[1:27:57] because he could honestly give Tom Lee the shittiest deal ever and Tom Lee will eat it up because whatever the shittiest deal is, Tom Lee is just going to say it's going to 100x. Skip around. I'm going to jump because he is the iconic

[1:28:14] con content creator of our generation. Gen Zoom. Okay, I'm going to guess you guys would be using a lot of sling. I don't understand rumors. Okay. So, the thing is is that you might think that we have gone off the rails,

[1:28:31] Beast, >> you might think we've gone off the The comedy writes itself. of the world. And if you're not following how important he is, first of

[1:28:45] >> Oh my god. >> A billion. like people follow like that's that's reach for instance he has

[1:28:57] >> this is actually kind of a cringe presentation I don't think he has an investment thesis >> the followers and he's created this organically

[1:29:15] nobody wa is nobody's more watched in streaming world than Mr. beast. Okay. streaming world than Mr. beast. Okay. And uh think about that for a minute on And uh think about that for a minute on that event. We are super engaged

[1:29:28] that event. We are super engaged content with them and uh important content creator in the world. >> Moonshot. They're calling it a moonshot. >> What's the valuation? >> Any future consumer service developed by

[1:29:42] each. Okay. Now, I want to read what Jeff Howenbold, their CEO, um, actually stated. Sorry, I'm gonna have to pull this up on my phone. Listen carefully to his

[1:29:55] >> as new investors in Beast Ind. We are excited to welcome Tom Lee and Bitmine as new investors in Beast Industries joining our current top tier venture investors. And we're not a venture investor. We're a strategic corporate.

[1:30:11] >> Oh my god. Whatever. >> Their support is a strong validation of our vision, strategy, and growth trajectory, and it provides additional capital to achieve our goal to become the most

[1:30:24] impactful entertainment brand in the world. Okay? So, we're helping them get to their goal. We >> CEO is kind of a knucklehead as well. Like, I like Jimmy, but the guy he hired is such a freaking suit.

[1:30:37] >> Exploring ways to further collaborate. See, that's the word. Oh my gosh. >> Incorporate DeFi into our upcoming financial services platform. >> So, think about this. Uh, if you want

[1:30:50] Ethereum to be part of the future of finance, it kind of makes sense to have a connection to the most important content creator in the world. Okay. So, again, if you were angry and you downvoted our investment in Mr. Beast,

[1:31:04] downvoted our investment in Mr. Beast, you're allowed to change your downvote. Um, okay. So I just want to explain the potential synergy. So you have uh okay someone says the number one investor for retail investors. Okay. Me the number

[1:31:20] one holder of Ethereum in the world. Okay. We own more Ethereum than anybody. >> Uhhuh. >> Plus the number one content creator. It's cheap. >> Oh man. Oh man. All right.

[1:31:37] How how down is he on Ethereum right now? I don't know what they pay for. What's What's their cost on Ethereum? Let's go find out. Oo, figures up 15%. That's insane.

[1:31:58] Uh, let's see here. Investor relations, SEC filings. I got an 8K on the 15th. I SEC filings. I got an 8K on the 15th. I got a 10 Q on

[1:32:13] So, I've got Ethereum. How much do they hold? Oh, here we go. Wait, no.

[1:32:33] I guess let's just look at their balance sheet. sheet. So, here's the business. What the hell? $5.2 billion loss as of November 30th. Well, that's got to be mostly uh

[1:33:00] from sale of my total revenue revenue from staking. Revenue from leasing. So they're staking, which is good. Cost of sales sales cost sales of leasing. Okay.

[1:33:15] cost sales of leasing. Okay. GNA. How are their GNA? How the frack is GNA. How are their GNA? How the frack is GNA $223 million and then down $5 billion over here? I mean, that's obviously gone up since November.

[1:33:34] Uh because November 30th, Ethereum was selling for Oh, it was like the bottom. Yeah, it was right here. November 30th, Yeah, it was right here. November 30th, we closed at was it 3,000?

[1:33:47] 2920. So, in fairness, they've regained about 10%. Oh, they're still down a lot.

[1:34:08] understand how you have $223 million of GNA The increase was related to capital raising, advisory, and consulting fees.

[1:34:21] Right? cuz Tom Lee is going to take some fat consulting agreements. listed here. Employment agreement.

[1:34:38] Employment agreement. Who's Chi Chang?

[1:34:58] Tom Lee or who is this? Chi Chi Chang. Maybe that's somebody else. Who is that? Maybe that's somebody else. Who is that? Chi Chang. Oh, it's this guy. All right, whatever. What's he getting paid?

[1:35:12] paid? This guy gets to be the CEO. It's hard to say. Where is it? Base salary 500K.

[1:35:29] entitled to a performance bonus of up to 500K 500K when specific metrics are hit. Okay. Long-term incentives. RSUs shall be granted RSUs with target

[1:35:43] RSUs shall be granted RSUs with target value of 500K for each year. value of 500K for each year. RSUs shall vest in over four years blah blah blah blah blah. I want to see the Tom Lee stuff,

[1:35:57] I want to see the Tom Lee stuff, but whatever. they need to pray that they get some gains here on Ethereum. Guess this is a lot of eradication of capital. Where's their cash flow statement?

[1:36:13] their cash flow statement? Let's go look at cash flow. hold. 20 or what is this? Here's how much Ethereum they hold and their cost basis is 15 billion. Basically fair value on

[1:36:30] November 30th is 104. So that's how many they hold. 3737140

[1:36:42] calculator. So times 3250 still down about three billion bucks from their their purchase.

[1:36:57] So you can see that here. This is roughly what it's worth right now. So roughly what it's worth right now. So still down about $3 billion.

[1:37:09] So where are they raising money from? Here we go. I've got at the money issuance. This is for the year though. It's only what? In three months they It's only what? In three months they raised another $7.6 billion to do this.

[1:37:23] Wow. That's crazy. I mean, people give these people money. So, you know what's $200 million? Hand it to them to light it on fire. Wow. That's crazy. That's some crazy stuff. This is a crazy

[1:37:40] freaking world, honestly. Absolutely crazy. Whatever. Whatever. Uh, all right. What else is going on out Uh, all right. What else is going on out there?

[1:37:59] Trump threatens countries regarding Greenland. don't go along with Greenland because we need Greenland for national security. need Greenland for national security. So, I may do that.

[1:38:28] Okay, I think we can do a quick summary of some of this. That's the rate watch.

[1:38:40] That's the rate watch. Let's see here. Oh, I wanted to see this too. Porch sales slumped by a tenth last year.

[1:38:54] Weaker than expected demand. It struggled in the Chinese market. Well, the Chinese have a lot of competition for these luxury German brands. for these luxury German brands. Honestly, a lot.

[1:39:06] Honestly, a lot. Okay, we saw that picking up the pieces. This was interesting. The 401k plan. There's poly market. Uh this is carrier and route. That's fine. Put that under geopol.

[1:39:21] And then also Greenland. Uh Trump threatens tariffs on countries that don't go along with his plan to

[1:39:34] uh strategically acquire lease parts of strategically acquire lease parts of Green Mine. Then the St. Clair lawsuit. I don't I mean that matters a little a lot less.

[1:39:50] This we talked about. Venezuela becomes a quagmire. There's Venezuela becomes a quagmire. There's the 62 or 102. That doesn't matter. That doesn't matter. That doesn't

[1:40:03] matter. A zero we didn't actually look at yet. Let me close some of these extra at yet. Let me close some of these extra tabs here. Ah, here's a Washington Post piece I want to look at.

[1:40:31] and suspicions fueled clash between Fed and prosecutors. Okay, what is this? oops has accelerated over the past few weeks

[1:40:45] of the dispute. Oh, this will be interesting. the Justice Department was preparing a criminal case against them when they

[1:40:57] received two casually worded emails. Messages sought a meeting or phone call Messages sought a meeting or phone call to discuss the renovations.

[1:41:09] 19th and 29th came from a political appointee in Pyro's office. The Fox News appointee in Pyro's office. The Fox News lady,

[1:41:24] as breezy in tone, happy to hop on a call." One of the missives read, call." One of the missives read, "This generated suspicions at the Fed.

[1:41:40] to avoid informal engagement that could carry criminal implications. Uh-huh. That led her to conclude that the Fed hide.

[1:41:54] hide. Right. investigation centers on the renovation. Pal testified

[1:42:10] blah blah blah overly luxurious blahy blahy blahy emails did not indicate the existence of a criminal investigation.

[1:42:31] lowkeyed it. We didn't publicize it. We did it quietly.

[1:42:47] see what the post comments are. This is going to lean pretty left. Just just a heads up. Hypocrisy here is breathtaking. Trump's ballroom is already costing double what he told the American people. I realize

[1:43:01] none of this matters anymore. Truth, facts, and consistency. Lies and selective manufactured outrage rules the day. Like Stranger Things, we now live in the upside down. Uh, Pyro, joke long ago and a joke

[1:43:16] still. She needs to be investigated for the demolition of the East Wing. Ah, yes. A TV judge stepping in big time with three-word world style investigation. So, the strong man in the palace gets control of

[1:43:29] an independent central bank and freely prints money. This cluelessness is absolutely clownish. She and her gang of clowns are playing with economic gasoline inside of a firework factory. [laughter]

[1:43:44] firework factory. [laughter] How do they write this crap? every other Trump appointee, is an untrustworthy hack. Oh my gosh.

[1:43:58] untrustworthy hack. Oh my gosh. >> [laughter]

[1:44:11] attorney's office is up there on the incompetent scale. incompetent scale. RIP. Wow. Wow.

[1:44:30] a flight and the crew received a bomb alert. We had three fighter jets flying next to us. The crew and pilots were pooping themselves. That's scary. I'm pooping themselves. That's scary. I'm sorry to hear you went through that.

[1:44:48] help you, right? The fighter jet is there to shoot your The fighter jet is there to shoot your ass down if you go the wrong way. It's ass down if you go the wrong way. It's actually really sad and scary.

[1:45:00] actually really sad and scary. Uh

[1:45:23] stay-at-home sons are here and they're not going anywhere. I just set my farm on fire. It was thrilling.

[1:45:35] has on the front page of their website, man. I didn't even see that news. Open AI versus Elon.

[1:45:52] Open AI versus Elon. Uh

[1:46:11] this spring after a federal judge rejected their efforts to dismiss Elon rejected their efforts to dismiss Elon Musk's lawsuit. should be dismissed. Musk has maintained that OpenAI had a

[1:46:28] specific charitable purpose that he attached two fundamentals to. This will be interesting. also rejected the argument by OpenAI suggesting must use of in donate seed money stripped him of legal standing.

[1:46:58] I mean I don't really think that's much news. I mean, like to try to dismiss a case like this this early, you know, this isn't really a big deal. This isn't really news. I think that's pretty broadly expected.

[1:47:33] The Great Robot Takeover has some limits. Well, yeah.

[1:47:47] aren't bearing out the cyborg contribution to bearing out the cyborg contribution to China's GDP. Their

[1:47:59] engines. Okay.

[1:48:12] blah blah. Yeah, that's boring. have to loud quitting. This is like the opposite of quiet. Quitting

[1:48:34] mistakes from the Federal Reserve to foreign policy to affordability. foreign policy to affordability. Oh, I want to see.

[1:48:51] >> What if I told you that one of the best things you can do to imps today. I did want to uh say that if it was

[1:49:06] within the rules and that I would be able to acknowledge people in the gallery who happen to be my great staff that have done extraordinary uh case work for years. Do you the pre

[1:49:18] would probably be shocked to hear this but I've never had a cross word with the president. Uh we've never had an elevated discussion in either direction. direction it would have ended up that way but it never has. Matter of fact,

[1:49:31] the president uh has a quality to him that I find really endearing. Like when I called him out of the blue because my mom was the president. Called him out of the blue on a Saturday afternoon and picked

[1:49:45] up the phone. I said, "Mr. President, would you uh you speak to my mom, she loves you." Got on the phone, graciously spoke to her for about five minutes. Um few months later, I was down in Florida. Um and I had an aunt and uncle, same

[1:49:59] thing. called him up. Same thing. He's a great he could be a gracious person. The president though got it wrong on he was right in saying that I'm not running anymore. But the reason that I made the decision

[1:50:13] not to run again, Mr. President. and I decided it was just easier to do it here versus answer the countless questions out in the hallway. It's because in the disagreement, I had to make a decision about how I could be most helpful to

[1:50:29] him. And so if I ran for reelection, I would necessarily always have to think about what boundaries I should have in expressing my concern and that creating complications for my campaign. There are red lines. There are just certain things

[1:50:44] that I would disagree with and would have to take the heat in a campaign. U but I thought in the moment I would be far better equipped to give the far better equipped to give the president my advice on policy matters if

[1:50:59] I removed any doubt whatsoever that my decisions would be based upon the consequence. the night that I told it not to run for

[1:51:11] reelection. My last key protecting this president, with their next job and the next presidential campaign that they may be able to get on than making sure that this president is as successful as

[1:51:23] this president is as successful as possible. So I decided by just making decision not for run for reelection, I could speak truth to a president that I hope goes down in history as the most successful Republican president in the

[1:51:36] point Greenland an independent territory within the Kingdom of Denmark is absurd. that the people of Greenland up until this uh uh these current times were

[1:51:54] actually very very pro-American and any fair fed board member until this matter is decided. Why? Well, because the whole argument about Fed independence comes into question, right? Created a devicement.

[1:52:10] >> All right. >> It's another example. >> This is too boring. >> Okay.

[1:52:30] Q's can't keep it up. Uh, not only can the Q's not keep it up, but you've got uh well, the dollar settling. It's kind of flat on the day. Figure 15. Look at it. It keeps freaking going. Holy

[1:52:44] smokes. Loan Depot. Interesting. Rocket's not keeping up. Although Rocket's been doing really well over the last few days. Wild. So,

[1:53:01] see what else? Wow, look at a firm. Firm's trying to pop off a little bit.

[1:53:15] had a little pop today. This one's really been lagging. Let's go see the news. Super Micro.

[1:53:28] super micro or particular other than just call volume up. let's just do a uh quick summary of what's going on here and uh the catalyst

[1:53:44] what's going on here and uh the catalyst coming up.

[1:54:04] really interesting and you should mark your calendar for the catalyst coming up. But first, we're going to get some of the initial data for January to see how is the labor market actually doing. Are the challenger and monthly ADP

[1:54:18] reports showing a rebound in December going to continue? And what is the Federal Reserve going to show us on my birthday, January 28th? Probably a big fat pause, which is pretty disappointing. But we also now have a

[1:54:32] much greater chance of getting Kevin Walsh as Fed chair because this morning, Donald Trump told us that Kevin Hasset should stay where he is. And Donald

[1:54:44] Trump essentially told us the quiet part out loud. Donald Trump said he wants his shill to stay at the NEC, the National Economic Council. Donald Trump said, quote, "I want to keep you where you are. If you want to know the truth, if I

[1:54:58] move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much. I would lose you." In other words, I won't have my shill. So, as a result, we are now seeing the odds of Hasset becoming the Fed chairperson absolutely plummet.

[1:55:14] Uh, we went down from about a 36% chance with Kevin Walsh at 44%. Hasset now down at 16 and Walsh all the way up at 60. Waller did get a little bit of a bump, but not much. I still maintain that Waller or Myin would be

[1:55:31] the best choices and Myin is down here at less than 1%. Now, this would be a shocker if somebody actually played that Myin would would be the choice. If you think about it, Myin would be the most vocal shill for Trump with a brain

[1:55:48] because Myron actually uses an economic argument for why we should preempt rate cuts. And Myron's not the only one saying that. Bowman this morning came out as well and said, "If we pause in January, we should be really careful

[1:56:01] about how we signal that pause because we should be taking preemptive work on obviously is going to make next week's weekly data. Tuesday morning very closed on Friday. So it's a 3-day weekend. And at the same time, as these

[1:56:17] next two weeks continue, we'll probably continue to see mortgage rates fall, we'll also be faced with that geopolitical uncertainty, which can often create a buy the dip opportunity. More on this in just a moment. First,

[1:56:30] take a look at some of the sticks. The NASDAQ 100 is allergic to 627. Once again, we couldn't hold 627 yesterday. The alpha report yesterday morning

[1:56:42] suggested watch at open if we reject holding 627. And if we do, wait for a holding 627. And if we do, wait for a retest. It's bearish. So, what happened? We dropped out of 627. Retest, reject, reject, reject, re, like perfect

[1:56:58] up. It was the easiest technical analysis. This is the stuff we point out every single day in the alpha report. The other thing that we did is we said this morning that figure had a good shot if it held green for the first few

[1:57:11] minutes, it had a good shot of memeing today. Look at this. If you bought figure even at, you know, 934, four or five minutes after, you would still be five minutes after, you would still be up roughly 10% on the day with how much

[1:57:25] it rallied since. We bought this back at IPO at 30 bucks. It keeps going. I think be really good to these mortgage plays. Here's another play of ours. LDI up 18%.

[1:57:37] This is a billion-dollar company. It's tiny. The the momentum is just beginning on these puppies. So now I I do think they will settle down because that MBS enthusiasm from Trump buying MBS's will fade probably after April. So we'll get

[1:57:53] earnings in April. Yay. Wow. Big refinance boom. But some of that will fade unless we get weaker jobs data. uh if we get stronger jobs data, it's good indicate that we could actually see rates move back up again and then you'll

[1:58:07] companies come down. So, just be cautious in how you trade these. But I'm very excited because I've got large exposures to uh Rocket Mortgage, LDI, Figure, and they're killing it with course members right now. That said,

[1:58:21] remember you can join by going to mekevin.com, get lifetime access. Let's understand the other uncertainties that we have right now and announcements that we're going to be getting from Davos. See, Davos is coming up on the 19th and

[1:58:34] Kevin Hasset told us this morning that Trump plans to announce 401k investment might already know that you could borrow against your 401k to uh buy rental to

[1:58:47] buy real estate to buy a home yourself. Uh and then you don't pay the penalties that you would otherwise pay, but there are often fees involved for doing this. So Kevin Hassid is now shilling this idea of suppose you take that 10% down

[1:59:01] and you take that 10% equity and put it into a home. This is then really you're instead of borrowing against your 401k, you're actually in like co-investing in your home with your

[1:59:15] 401k. And if you then go sell that property, those gains would actually be in your 401k and deferred until you pay taxes when you start withdrawing at 59 12. Now, we don't yet know all of the details for this, but that's my sort of

[1:59:30] put piecing the puzzle together here along with the other stimulative argument that we've been seeing from Republicans. See right here, the Republicans have been pitching in the making the American dream affordable

[1:59:44] again. Proposal number five is establishing a home savings account to existing Trump account structure, allowing individuals to leverage other tax advantaged savings account to make it easier than ever before for working

[1:59:56] Americans to save towards owning their first home. So this is very interesting. A lot of uh new options for either investing in stocks or investing in real investing in stocks or investing in real estate, which is beneficial to both.

[2:00:09] the economy, but it's worth paying attention to these. I personally think a we're going to end up getting a Kevin Worsh as a Fed chair. Now, the economist

[2:00:21] thinks that the real risk right now is that with only few firms making reliable profits from artificial intelligence, there is a risk we face a credit meltdown that could rock the entire financial system and the economy more

[2:00:34] broadly. And then there are going to be companies going around picking up the pieces. Totally agree with this, by the way. But Kevin Walsh won't be a tool for helping us get out of that hole. In fact, in 2008, he made the very mistakes

[2:00:50] that we should be avoiding in a Federal Reserve. If you go to a video that it made about uh Kevin Worsh, you can see a full video on it. I'll show you what yourself and you could go to the different segments of it. But the video

[2:01:04] was posted about a month ago and it says, "Trump picking Kevin Walsh for Fed title of it. So, you could look up that title. But in that video, we go through and we show how Kevin Walsh, in the middle of the collapsing financial

[2:01:21] crisis of 2008, wanted to raise interest rates to save the economy. That's who Kevin Worsh is. That's the schmuck who has the greatest chance of being fed chair right now. And I personally think one of the reasons why

[2:01:35] personally think one of the reasons why the NASDAQ 100 fell today right here was not only because of the allergy the NASDAQ 100 has against the uh 627 level but because of the uncertainty of what happens if we actually get Kevin Worsh

[2:01:50] and then we end up needing to rely on the Fed. Kevin Hassets's a wet blanket. We know that he would just be a shelf for Trump. Kevin Worsh would probably be better for credibility, but he would be bad in an emergency. You want Kevin, you

[2:02:04] want Chris Waller. That's who you want. An economist at heart who maintains Federal Reserve credibility and stands for preempting a labor market collapse. That's how you could potentially keep kicking the can down the road of this

[2:02:18] recession, which is exactly what Trump wants. He wants to run the economy hot to quote forestall a recession. I say the word quote because that's exactly the word quote because that's exactly what Kevin uh um Mr. Myron said. Myin

[2:02:30] tells us we want to forstall a recession. That's the MO. They're saying the quiet part out loud. They know there are recessionary impetuses, but we could stay bullish in the short term,

[2:02:43] especially on like mortgage companies because of the current making, mostly Donald Trump's stimulative actions, which we'll see more of those over the next few months. And I wouldn't be surprised if we do end

[2:02:56] bill. All of that is positive and bullish. But the big test comes on Tuesday and then with the announcement of the Fed chair. So in addition to the chance that we're still going to see a strike against Iran by the end of the

[2:03:10] month, especially as we move our carrier strike group into the region and as concerns grow over Greenland, understand the catalyst that we have for the next the catalyst that we have for the next few weeks. We are catalyst heavy for the

[2:03:22] few weeks. We are catalyst heavy for the next few weeks. What do we have? Supreme Court on AIPA. This creates short-term uncertainty, right? We have uh Fed

[2:03:34] choice. Wsh versus Waller, right? Which would be a Waller would be good. I would would be a Waller would be good. I would say WASH would be bad. Uh okay, that's my opinion. So, I should make a little note that that would be my opinion. What

[2:03:48] note that that would be my opinion. What else do we have? weekly uh jobs data on else do we have? weekly uh jobs data on Tuesday. We have the Fed pause and uh Tuesday. We have the Fed pause and uh how they describe that pause on Jan 28.

[2:04:01] how they describe that pause on Jan 28. That's, you know, bearish bearish That's, you know, bearish bearish uh bearish and hawkish, right? This is, it because we don't want to just rely on government data. We want to rely on some

[2:04:14] of that private data. This right here is uncertainty, right? The Supreme Court we already know is uncertainty. But what else is uncertainty? Greenland is uncertainty. Uh and then of course we have Iran strikes uncertainty. Now the

[2:04:29] bottom two are usually buy the dips, right? Generally geopolitical stuff is a buy the dip. So right here we would say usually uh buy the dip.

[2:04:41] This right here is usually by the dip. Supreme Court on AIPA is by the dip. Supreme Court on AIPA is by the dip. Great news. if canned uh if tariffs are canned because I think in midterms Trump's not going to do much. Waller is

[2:04:56] bearish. Waller is straight bear or sorry saying this wrong. Walsh is straight bearish and uh and then of course we don't know. course we're going to get some bearish posit. So there's plenty of a reason to

[2:05:10] see why we're not getting you know enthusiasm There are plenty of uncertain catalysts. Of course, you could also argue that Venezuela is another unknown uh still unknown. What's going to happen

[2:05:26] with the regime over there just like Iran is still an unknown. So, we've got a lot of uncertainty. A lot of these things come to a head within the next 2 to four weeks as we get decisions, data, the Fed meeting, and then of course a

[2:05:39] choice by Donald Trump. So, not a surprise we're not seeing deals here. Now, there are deals on other stocks. I mean, if you actually Kevin, stocks are at all-time highs." I don't like Microsoft. I don't own

[2:05:53] Microsoft, but understand that Microsoft is about to hit a 52- week low. You know, if we fall down over here to 428 and we hold that for a couple more months, we're going to be at 52- week lows on Microsoft. And this company

[2:06:06] prints freaking cash. It's crazy. Again, I don't own them, so I'm not trying to shill them. like gosh, I I tell you when I own stuff because I I want to be as transparent as I can, but uh you know, the the market has almost kind of priced

[2:06:20] perfection back here when we were in the midst of the rate cutting cycle. And this is the problem. The market loves getting rate cuts. That's when we hit all-time highs, but we're about to go into a cycle of no rate cuts. So, this

[2:06:35] is what I call cautious optimism, right? This is why cautious optimism, right? This is why I'm at a six on bear bull. I'm cautiously optimistic. Most issues above will create shortterm

[2:06:52] dip by opportunities. Uh longer wash is a longerterm issue. A longerterm red flag canary in the coal mine along with you know open AAI

[2:07:05] overspending. Uh those are long-term issues, right? But most of the stuff up here is just short-term drama, uh, which creates opportunities. Now, we have a 3-day weekend coming up. Uh, and then we're going to be walking into, of

[2:07:18] going to be, uh, at the end of the month, we're going to have another massive price increase on both the, uh, meet Kevin alpha report. That's where you can see my fundamental analysis uh, on uh, on individual stocks. We do this

[2:07:32] every day the market is open, but also the reinvest AI with our valuation AI now in progress. And that's going to be a really big gamecher. So, I'm very very excited about that. Uh because this this is going to allow us to value every

[2:07:47] the market and tell you where you can get the most net worth anywhere in the country with the snap of a finger. Really an incredible product. We need to this because uh I I think people are going to be very willing to pay monthly

[2:08:02] for this or, you know, quarterly or whatever we decide to do. So, uh, that going on in markets right now. You do have, you know, some yapping, like miscellaneous yapping, like Ashley Stlair is suing Elon Musk. Uh, this is

[2:08:18] not a surprise for sort of the declo pictures. You know, this the lawsuits take years to litigate. Anyway, OpenAI and Microsoft don't get dismissal uh on the early phase of the case that Elon Musk has against them for OpenAI

[2:08:33] becoming a profit company, essentially a for-profit. So, that'll take years more to litigate. We've got Bit Mine Immersion throwing $200 million into Mr.

[2:08:45] Beast uh and and Beast, you know, Industries, but you know, they just Industries, but you know, they just raised $7.6 6 billion in stock, which is an amazing offering that Tom Lee pulled off here. In fairness, you know, they're

[2:08:59] down about $3 billion on their Ethereum purchases. They were down as much as $5 billion. So, they're actually up from the hole. See, here's the $5.2 billion actually up to now only like a $3 billion loss. Still a lot, but $200

[2:09:15] a lot of people were pretty upset with the presentation uh that Tom Lee gave because it was really like, yeah, Mr. Beast is popular, right? You might think we've gone off the rails, but he's popular, right? I hate to summarize it

[2:09:30] like that, but that's really what what I saw of the conference felt like. Of the Federal Reserve here from people like Mr. Till I who argue that, hey, we're not going to confirm any Fed chair choice from Donald Trump until we stop

[2:09:45] these inquiries into the Federal Reserve, which you know, Pyro's staff apparently sent emails to the Federal Reserve saying, "Hey, let's hop on a Reserve saying, "Hey, let's hop on a call." And the Fed is like, "This is

[2:09:59] unprofessional. We don't want to talk to the DOJ if they're talking to us like this." So, the Fed just purposefully ignored them. uh we low-keyed it, they say, and uh and and then of course, you know, they ended up coming out with

[2:10:12] ignored. All this is just drama and uncertainty in the short term. Big key now is how do we get through the labor market in the face of all of these uncertainties? Labor keeps holding up

[2:10:27] the way it has been in December. These are all clear buy the dip opportunities. Uh January is layoff month though, so we'll have to see how much we get in because, you know, obviously you're going to get seasonal layoffs. Uh which

[2:10:41] does indicate we'll have some really fat seasonal adjustments. And so if we go negative beyond the seasonal adjustments, that's where the problem comes from. you know, Greenland. I personally see this as not much of an

[2:10:54] issue because I think I think Donald Trump is mostly bluffing on all this. And he's doing it because he's trying to negotiate. He'll end up negotiating some kind of lease of some kind of edge of land along northern Greenland.

[2:11:07] Greenlanders will make a bunch of money. Greenlanders will still own Greenland drama in the meantime, like these threats of tariffs and stuff against countries that don't go along with the the Greenland takeover,

[2:11:21] Trump's chaos theory and his negotiating. So that's my take on what's going on in the world today. Hopefully that's useful to you. Remember to go to membership and go to houseack.com or reinvest.co to check out reinvestai.

[2:11:37] reinvest.co to check out reinvestai. Thanks so much for being here, folks.