Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy? (+EV Betting Explained)

[00:00] I'm going to show you guys how you can make over $100,000 plus EV betting just like I did now first off what is plus EV betting now there to me is two meanings

[00:12] to this so plus EV betting means expected value now there is a plus EV side of what people like to do that I don't consider to work because I've

[00:24] tried it multiple times and it just is like throwing darts it's really all it is so what most people consider plus EV betting what it is is when you go and you look at a sports book at multiple Sports books and there's a line

[00:40] discrepancy at one sports book compared to the others so for example let's say that bed MGM has a play at -10 where all the rest of the sports books have that play at - 180 so people go and they bet the one play at minus 120 at that sports

[00:57] book because they think that's expected value but there's nothing to back that play whatsoever other than that sports book offers a better odds than the rest of them so that is one side of what plus EV is and expected value now I'm going

[01:13] to tell you guys exactly what my definition is of it and how I used it to be able to make hundreds of thousands of dollars just betting on sports and not getting Limited at the sports books as well now what I consider expected value

[01:30] to be is when you are looking at certain odds and the odds for example if they probability of that play hitting right off the bat so a minus 200 is in the 60%

[01:45] range that right off the bat that is what the probability is of that play hitting without any other expectations going into it or looking at anything else right off the bat has a 60% chance because if you were to playus 200

[02:00] non-stop for a whole entire year you would have to hit over that 60% Mark to be able to profit you couldn't hit 55% atus 200s because you would lose money you couldn't hit 57% betting minus 200s because you would lose money so you

[02:16] would have to hit above that 60 percentile up to that 70% range to be able to profit betting those types of odds now where do you find the discrepancy at for these type of odds is when something for example isus 200 and

[02:32] has a 60% shot at winning right off the bat but the true probability because you've actually looked into the play and figured what the probability of that play is of hitting the probability is 75% or 80% shot at that play actually

[02:47] winning so if we have for example a minus 200 play but you look into it and it's actually has an 80% probability of hitting that is what to me what expected value is that to me is what plus EV is plus EV is finding the probability

[03:05] compared to the odds and finding an edge in between those because what you need to do is you need to for example a player prop let's say LeBron James points all right let's say that his point total for 25 plus points is minus

[03:19] 220 but let's say we went and looked over the course of the whole entire season LeBron James his to go over 25 plus he's hit that rate at 75% of the time throughout the whole entire season that right there is value because you're

[03:33] getting a high probability play with the odds below what that expected value is so you're giving yourself an edge when you find those plays that is exactly

[03:46] what makes you successful there is no other way in sports betting there's no other way because here's the thing a lot of people like to do this you like to bet the minus 110 plays well Theus 110 plays over the course of a year you need

[04:00] to hit 52.4% of the time just to break even so guess what when you go and you look deeper into a minus 110 play and a minus 110 line for a player prop most of

[04:12] the time it is a 50% probability that it's going to happen so they give you a 50/50% chance sometimes it's lower sometimes it's 48 47% and guess what you are playing plays that are giving you a Negative Edge and you don't even know it

[04:27] term you are not going to be successful that's why no matter how many people that are out there that try to tell you that I only stick to minus 110 plays will never profit because nobody has ever profited sitting on minus 110 plays

[04:46] for their whole entire career they just didn't and if they tell you they are show you I've been able to make hundreds of thousands of dollars betting plays that areus 200 - 250 minus 300 and people for years have told me that you

[05:04] can't profit long term and they still to to this day still tell me you can't odds there is when you find discrepancies where the probability

[05:17] doesn't line up with the odds now I'm going to show you guys on paper exactly how this looks so that way you guys can see exactly how that helps you when you are looking for an edge betting these plays and finding these whether it be

[05:32] player props or money line spreads or totals let's go ahead and talk about value all right we are going to put it down on paper so that way you guys can see exactly what I'm talking about so like I said for example let's take a

[05:47] minus 200 play all right minus 200 play is what you find you scroll and you find one of those let's say it's a player problem all right let's say it's uh Lebron to get 25 plus

[06:04] points all right so you find the minus 200 play right off the bat that gives you a 60 percentile range of hitting right off the bat and that's all you you

[06:17] didn't really look into it yet but then you go to dive deeper into it you go to look a little bit more into LeBron season and see exactly how he performed and how many times he's hit that that percent range for 25 points so you go

[06:31] and look and you see that he actually hit that 75% of the time so 75% of the time he was able to get 25 plus points all right so what should his

[06:45] odds be at that if he was hitting 75% his odds should be in that minus 300 range all right but you see it at -200 so what are you doing there you're

[06:58] giving yourself an Edge all right you're giving yourself an edge because yeah maybe the odds are high but the percent of that happening is higher than what the odds are that they're giving you so you gave yourself an edge on this play

[07:14] now just because LeBron has 25 points in 75% of his games another further way he's playing and see exactly how that you know compares to his season as well

[07:29] team that he's playing but this is how you find Value all right you cannot find Value by going with minus 110 and thinking that you going to hit

[07:44] 60% of the time at minus 1110 cuz it's not going to happen not going to happen you're not going to win at that percentage at Min - 110 every single play that you find at minus 110 I can almost guarantee you is going to be a

[08:01] 50% or below all the way down to I found sometimes 40% probability of winning which gives you a

[08:14] Negative Edge gives you a Negative Edge all right the sports books want you to bet like this they want you to bet like this why

[08:27] because they know that if you bet my - 110 and you're only hitting 50 45% of the time you're losing money you're going to lose money yeah you're not losing your whole bank roll right out the gate but you're hitting 45% over the

[08:40] course of your year you're donating a ton of money by chasing a minus 110 line in playing on the other hand if you're playing these type of plays guess what you're profiting playing this type of stuff rather than playing this type of

[08:57] stuff and you end up losing this is how straight bets will still lose long term because they're betting minus Edge plays all right they're finding plays that are

[09:09] giving them a Negative Edge to me this is what expected value really is than what the odds are that they give you when you find those plays then you

[09:22] do that long term that is the only way to be successful in sports betting it's the only way I have found out that is the only way over years 5 10 years of sports betting because so many people try this way and I've tested this way

[09:38] for years and you can never beat the minus 110 line and be able to hit that long term you never can because the probabilities are the probabilities so if you are playing plays that are only going to hit 50 to 40% of the time long

[09:53] term that probability is going to stay true and you're only going to hit that 50 to 40% long term you're playing plays that are going to give you 75% probability of winning long term you're going to hit 75% long term yeah you're

[10:06] not going to make a crazy amount of money because of the odds that you're betting but you are going to profit if you're averaging odds of- 200- 220 and you're hitting 75% of the time you are still going to profit all right that is

[10:20] where true sports betting where you can actually make money this is where the 21st century sports betting really is people don't understand understand this they don't understand the analytics of this they don't get it they just think

[10:33] they can go out bet random stuff and long term they're going to win that is not how it works if you want to make hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on sports you have to have plus Edge you have to have a plus Edge on your side

[10:47] you got to have a probability on your side cuz if you don't have a probability on your side you are going to lose I can guarantee it if you don't listen to exactly what I tell you you will end up being on this side and losing money

[11:01] rather than being on this side and winning money now I teach this to all of my clients all of this in every single major sport so if you are interested in learning exactly how to do this one-on-one from me click the link in the

[11:17] description so that way I could show you all the strategies that I have in place to be able to find these types of plays all right these types of plays rather than these garbage plays that you are never going to win long term now when it

[11:34] comes to sports betting and getting Limited at certain Sports books what you do is when you're betting these types of plays you still keep your unit size at a that beted up between multiple Sports books so that way you're not getting

[11:51] banned okay they will never ban you playing minus 110 plays guarantee you plays cuz you won't profit long term and they know that betting these plays you

[12:03] you if you're playing these types of plays but if you split your bank roll and your unit size up amongst multiple Sports books and bet at multiple Sports books and find that edge then you will still be profitable and not get banned

[12:20] or Limited at your sports books now you might not find the exact same line in every sports book but as long as you find around anywhere I'd say like if you find a Min - 200 and you find another one that's- 220 and another one that's-

[12:35] 230 you're still good because if you're hitting in this range you're still solid all right but that is how the 21st century of sports betting how you will be successful and how you can amass hundreds of thousands of dollars from

[12:49] the sports books without getting banned or limited as always guys I'm Frank with lemaker sports I'll see you guys in the next video till then I'm out